Regarding placards, this GE there are two on one house on the main road 0.5 miles away.(We are a solidly Tory constituency (was solidly Labour 20 years ago).. The house with the placards is on a smart road populated by largeish detached houses plus bungalows. The single house with Labour placards has an overgrown garden and 4-5 scrap cars in the front garden - if you can see them for the foliage.. and is delapidated and has got steadily worse since we came here 30 odd years ago..
I was tempted to photo it and post it with the slogan "Vote Labour and the entire road will be like this in 5 years time"
I find you can predict the voting intention of the householder with 80% accuracy by looking at the garden.
Once found a pristine garden, Jaguar in the drive, and a Union Jack flying up a flagpole.
I didn't even bother knocking on the door.
What about one where the garden has been turned into a bricked driveway, with sporadic weeds/grass growing out of the brickwork?
Depends on whether there is an oil spot where a van is parked at night, or not.
No, just brickworth with some grass in the gaps, and newish Mini. Which way would they vote based on that 'garden'?
LibDem or Labour
I am breaking the mould then - 2 Tory votes (previously LD and non-vote)
I see Betfair currently has 1.1 for the Conservatives having most seats. That implies the markets are allowing a 10% probability for the polls being out by a mile.
Sensible enough. The distribution of results from any model is enormous, given how inaccurate UK polling is.
Russian military intelligence carried out a cyber-attack on at least one US voting software supplier and sent spear-phishing emails to more than a hundred local election officials days before the poll, the Intercept reported on Monday.
I think pollsters are a likely potential target for various state and non-state groups.
Access to the exit poll data could be extremely advantageous for financial advantage, certainly enough to be worth burning a few zero day vulnerabilities on, and I would be surprised if polling company IT security is all that great.
I can't recall a campaign (other than brexit) where so many on an incumbent PM's own side have made enemies of themselves.
Timothy and Hill will have drawn up their hitlist.
The executions will commence at dawn.
Magnanimity in victory would be preferable, but if there is to be a purge then I would submit Nick Timothy's name for the top of the list.
Having won a mandate in her own right (presuming that is indeed the outcome), this would be an opportunity for the Prime Minister to bind old wounds and get the party back on track for the difficult task of governing and navigating Brexit that lies ahead.
Welcome back, Alistair. There's a lot of BS written about TM and her inner circle by people who have never met any of them. Mrs May didn't get where she is today without being a pragmatist, and although not a schmoozer in the style of Cameron, she is probably more in touch with the instincts of the party than he was. Ergo, I think a small reshuffle and a concentration on business at hand, with some of the more 'challenging' manifesto commitments shelved for the foreseeable. Inner circles often do not survive contact with the enemy, so I would expect one or both of NT and FH to move into a public affairs role somewhere else and May try to find herself advisers more used to the grapeshot and a politician or two to play the Willie Whitelaw role... Davis could do it, but his day job is rather too important.
Thank you, sir. Yes, that is probably true. The social care manifesto wasn't wholly without merit, but it does seem to have been very poorly thought through particularly in terms of its political implications being put in the manifesto for release in the midst of a campaign. Either the political sensitivities were not given sufficient consideration or somebody felt that the electorate, faced with a LOTO thought to be unelectable, would swallow them anyway. I suppose I just don't cope with shocks and surprises now in my dotage as I did when I was young and spry!
Certainly agree with what you say about Mrs May's characteristics as a tough politician and a pragmatist - she was, after all, the longest serving Home Secretary in my memory. I think a Willie figure would be useful to her. Perhaps Fallon would be a good fit for that sort of job?
This "longest serving Home Secretary" stuff is getting old. David Cameron did not like reshuffles. Probably most of his Cabinet were the longest serving something-or-other. IDS did six years at the DWP. It tells us nothing.
Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?
Value is betting on 100+ majority.
Labour are going to get beasted.
I think so. There's some big value on SkyBet on the Cons size of majority bands esp above 100+. It's far better than the 400+ seat total and the vote share etc. You can still get 13/2 on 100-124 and 12-1 on 125-149.
I got down the polls early before I had to head off across country, did the dirty for the first time, mailed in my coupon for chargrilled baby, and back for a quick shower in dettol. Hoping I will get back before 10pm for the fun and games
When I went to vote this morning there was a queue outside of the polling station!
Almost 150 young people were there, waiting patiently, holding hands and singing an uplifting song about Jeremy Corbyn and his love for people of all creeds and colours. They made space for me towards the front of the queue, calling me "Sir" and offering to hold my laptop bag because it looked very heavy. One of them ran to the local coffee shop to fetch me a coffee, they all insisted on chipping in so I didn't have to pay for it myself.
I wept with pride at our glorious youth and decided, right there and then, that I too would vote for Jeremy and the wonderful future that he embodies.
I can't recall a campaign (other than brexit) where so many on an incumbent PM's own side have made enemies of themselves.
Timothy and Hill will have drawn up their hitlist.
The executions will commence at dawn.
Magnanimity in victory would be preferable, but if there is to be a purge then I would submit Nick Timothy's name for the top of the list.
Having won a mandate in her own right (presuming that is indeed the outcome), this would be an opportunity for the Prime Minister to bind old wounds and get the party back on track for the difficult task of governing and navigating Brexit that lies ahead.
Welcome back, Alistair. There's a lot of BS mportant.
Thank you, sir. Yes, that is probably true. The social care manifesto wasn't wholly without merit, but it does seem to have been very poorly thought through particularly in terms of its political implications being put in the manifesto for release in the midst of a campaign. Either the political sensitivities were not given sufficient consideration or somebody felt that the electorate, faced with a LOTO thought to be unelectable, would swallow them anyway. I suppose I just don't cope with shocks and surprises now in my dotage as I did when I was young and spry!
Certainly agree with what you say about Mrs May's characteristics as a tough politician and a pragmatist - she was, after all, the longest serving Home Secretary in my memory. I think a Willie figure would be useful to her. Perhaps Fallon would be a good fit for that sort of job?
This "longest serving Home Secretary" stuff is getting old. David Cameron did not like reshuffles. Probably most of his Cabinet were the longest serving something-or-other. IDS did six years at the DWP. It tells us nothing.
Not nothing. Six years in a high profile ministry without cocking up so much you are moved is still impressive, even though Cameron did not like reshuffling.
Speaking of reshuffling, I suppose if Lab do lose, but not so badly Corbyn goes, it'll be a time for this page to be updated again - it's already impressively long.
We want the NHS to be world class, free, there all the time, but eat shit, drink too much and do no exercise
Top post! Loved this bit in particular. We all love, love, love the NHS. But, oddly, not enough to actually look after ourselves (despite our obvious self-interest in doing so!) so that overworked doctors and nurses never have to look us in the eye and tell us bad news about how we're going to have debilitating health, or die, which they (and we) full well know we could have avoided. It's collectively silly of us.
Louise Mensch, formerly of this parish, said something on Question Time that resonated with me, during a discussion about binge-drinking and how it can be prevented. Lots of very concerned-looking members of the audience and a sober discussion from the assembled talking heads. I paraphrase, but her point was essentially "if British people want to reduce our problem with binge-drinking, then we will all just have to binge-drink less". A truism on the brink of tautology. But actually, a searingly good point.
I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
My current forecast is about 190 seats for Labour but in some ways that's a best case scenario for them. If people are thinking about security rather than the NHS as they enter the polling station it could be a lot worse.
I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
Yes same here, seems impossible to me .However never seen a labour poster in my avenue and I have been here since 92.Now there is 4.,This council area was always solid Lib dem.
The Tory apparatchiks must be flooding into North Norfolk from what I saw this morning to complete stage 2 of the Lib Dem decapitation strategy on Norman Lamb.The Tories are throwing the kitchen sink to guillotine him."Dark" Facebook ads is where the Tories magic money tree is going.Con 1-2 LD 13-8 .Is Norman's very high incumbency factor big enough to counter the purple to blue switchers and is he able to squeaze the Labour vote?
Some on here have said locals were good for LDs and that he might even get plenty of the UKIP vote. A lot of models have him down as 95+% certain to lose, but RCs for one has him holding.
Several of my older relatives enjoy a good racing game - you can get decent gamign wheels and pedals, and rather than the expense of gaming chair (my father's back was not really up for lowering himself into and getting up from the one we used to have)just get a custom wheel stand and do it from the comfort of a regular chair.
This "dark" ads terminology is deeply annoying. That's just how you buy advertising on social media platforms - targeted at particular users.
Since the campaign started I have been concerned about many things. Of course I was in Canada for three weeks and each day the news seemed more negative and I was not happy about the fox hunting. Then the manifesto disaster on a social care policy that is progressive and if labour were honest they could agree on. I think the concentration on Brexit has failed and was astonished at the lack of attack on Corbyn's economic suicidal policies.
My instinct is usually very good and it is telling me that a 100 majority is not feasible and that I hope TM gets a workable majority but she has been a poor campaigner. In her defence she is not a David Cameron with his polish but a genuine serious politician who is highly competent and just the person we need at present
If at the end of tonight she has a workable majority I will be pleased but I am realistic and prepared for a NOM result
One thing about the exit poll, they don't seem to take into account postal voting. Could this be a key source of error in a year that the age split seems greater than ever?
I thought they did somehow take it into account but not sure.
I have sympathy with the abstainers on here. What a piss poor election this has been all round
But I would suggest that we the mighty electorate are in no small way responsible for that sorry state of affairs ourselves (present company excepted of course)
We want low taxes (for us personally at least - they can be higher for other people...) and better public services We want a growing economy but we don't like immigration We want pay rises for public servants but also money for more operations and bobbies on the beat We want honest politicians but popularity is achieved by those who are frankly anything but We want well paid jobs and successful companies but think business is a great source of endless tax We want the NHS to be world class, free, there all the time, but eat shit, drink too much and do no exercise
We just want government to make it all better for us
We basically want the circle to be square, and woe betide anyone who tries to have a grown up debate about the deep shit we are already in and how much deeper it will inevitably get.
I think we get what we deserve :-/
Well yes.
Given I am a baby boomer , I am amazed at the propensity of people to spend on credit for what is basically this year's fashion - and discard it as obsolete after 2-3 years.
If politicians told us what reality is likely to be - another nasty credit crunch some time is likely - no-one would vote for them.
Imagine being told taxes have to rise, the Minimum Wage is being cut and you can't spend what you don't have.. (Labour's 1947 Austerity budget)
I have sympathy with the abstainers on here. What a piss poor election this has been all round
But I would suggest that we the mighty electorate are in no small way responsible for that sorry state of affairs ourselves (present company excepted of course)
We want low taxes (for us personally at least - they can be higher for other people...) and better public services We want a growing economy but we don't like immigration We want pay rises for public servants but also money for more operations and bobbies on the beat We want honest politicians but popularity is achieved by those who are frankly anything but We want well paid jobs and successful companies but think business is a great source of endless tax We want the NHS to be world class, free, there all the time, but eat shit, drink too much and do no exercise
We just want government to make it all better for us
We basically want the circle to be square, and woe betide anyone who tries to have a grown up debate about the deep shit we are already in and how much deeper it will inevitably get.
I think we get what we deserve :-/
Well yes.
Given I am a baby boomer , I am amazed at the propensity of people to spend on credit for what is basically this year's fashion - and discard it as obsolete after 2-3 years.
If politicians told us what reality is likely to be - another nasty credit crunch some time is likely - no-one would vote for them.
Imagine being told taxes have to rise, the Minimum Wage is being cut and you can't spend what you don't have.. (Labour's 1947 Austerity budget)
You are well out of date on fashion with the yuff. These days it is all about order today, deliver tomorrow, throw away after bring worn once.
Of course if jezza gets in all those companies like boohoo will be out of business pretty quickly, as they rely on ZHC staff and delivery companies who also operate in that way.
Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
We had all this in the previous recent elections. Didn't that geezer Sean T say he was heading off to bed on the basis of some early anecdotal reports?
Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
We had all this in the previous recent elections. Didn't that geezer Sean T say he was heading off to bed on the basis of some early anecdotal reports?
One thing about the exit poll, they don't seem to take into account postal voting. Could this be a key source of error in a year that the age split seems greater than ever?
It is perfectly possible and easy to mentally tally postal votes (in a two horse race) and get a fairly accurate aassament of the state of play after a while. If anything all the polls are underestimating cons and overestimating labour. In this two horse race the other parties are absolutely nowhere. Con held Con / lab north west marginal with strong leave.
I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
Yes same here, seems impossible to me .However never seen a labour poster in my avenue and I have been here since 92.Now there is 4.,This council area was always solid Lib dem.
But that will probably be part of Labour membership surge and/or a function of growth of online campaigning.
Unless Labour are targeting your ward, they are fairly unlikely to have canvassed your street with an armful of posters, calling cards etc. So there may have always been a few who'd have taken one but were never asked. However, members will probably have been sent a poster (and there are more of those than in many years) or their email may well have got to Corbyn via a petition or whatever, and they've clicked something. I wouldn't take it as a real support rise (it may be, but I'd suggest not).
It would been interesting to see a map of big student areas, currently held by and which have broken up for the summer. I was on a uni campus yesterday and it was totally deserted.
I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
the only reason this election could have been close is because of the NHS being so important this election, the oldies use it the most. But they are firmly in May's camp. So it wont be close.
Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
Now 1.26.....
Pile on.
There's no way the Blues are going to all Spursy today.
I daren't.... not with any more... I had a wobble last night after David Herdson's post so put another £1k on it as bravado.... we Spurs fans know how hope can kill you and fear of defeat when seemingly impossible...
just need a maj of 2 to win that's what I keep telling myself.
Have attended the polling station. Never faced such a poor choice. Felt genuinely depressed looking at what was in front of me. Acted accordingly.
You broke down weeping?
More or less. Then I walked out again, having deposited an empty ballot paper in the box. The first time I have ever done it.
Which made me think, yeah, why not just leave blank instead of spoiling? I suppose so that a naughty teller can't turn it into the vote of their choice.
It would been interesting to see a map of big student areas, currently held by and which have broken up for the summer. On was on a uni campus yesterday and it was totally deserted.
Add the phenomena of those register in other areas during term time (done by the universities /SU) are actually routinely unregistered in their own town. I can only assume that this is a very new thing coming in with IVR, I've come across it multiple times during the local elections.
Bloody Hell, Alastair Matlock is back! As if my nerves weren't already shredded by last night's Reverse Herdson. Welcome back, Alastair!
Many thanks, Cookie! Nothing like a General Election to stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood and raise old commenters like me from the dead.
For our younger members here, His Grace The Duke of Beaconsfield was Leader of the (dominant) pb Conservative Group from 2005-8. I was honoured to serve as his loyal chief whip.
Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
Now 1.26.....
Pile on.
There's no way the Blues are going to all Spursy today.
I daren't.... not with any more... I had a wobble last night after David Herdson's post so put another £1k on it as bravado.... we Spurs fans know how hope can kill you and fear of defeat when seemingly impossible...
just need a maj of 2 to win that's what I keep telling myself.
I understand, someone has reminded me less than 48 hrs ago, Virgil van Dijk was 1/16 to be a Liverpool player on 2/9/17
Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
We had all this in the previous recent elections. Didn't that geezer Sean T say he was heading off to bed on the basis of some early anecdotal reports?
SeanT isn't a geezer. Surely he's more of a cad?
I think he prefers boulevardier.....though bounder might also fit.....
Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
We had all this in the previous recent elections. Didn't that geezer Sean T say he was heading off to bed on the basis of some early anecdotal reports?
SeanT isn't a geezer. Surely he's more of a cad?
I think he prefers boulevardier.....though bounder might also fit.....
When I went to vote this morning there was a queue outside of the polling station!
Almost 150 young people were there, waiting patiently, holding hands and singing an uplifting song about Jeremy Corbyn and his love for people of all creeds and colours. They made space for me towards the front of the queue, calling me "Sir" and offering to hold my laptop bag because it looked very heavy. One of them ran to the local coffee shop to fetch me a coffee, they all insisted on chipping in so I didn't have to pay for it myself.
I wept with pride at our glorious youth and decided, right there and then, that I too would vote for Jeremy and the wonderful future that he embodies.
Bloody Hell, Alastair Matlock is back! As if my nerves weren't already shredded by last night's Reverse Herdson. Welcome back, Alastair!
Many thanks, Cookie! Nothing like a General Election to stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood and raise old commenters like me from the dead.
For our younger members here, His Grace The Duke of Beaconsfield was Leader of the (dominant) pb Conservative Group from 2005-8. I was honoured to serve as his loyal chief whip.
Since everyone else is putting up picks here's mine Con 354 Lab 221 LD 7 Plaid 5 SNP 41 Majority 58
I've been more bullish on Labour from the start as I never bought the idea that exLabour UKIPers in the North would vote Tory (as OGH said on the podcast). Just sorry I was in the USA when the 156 was available on the spreads for Labour seats.
One thing about the exit poll, they don't seem to take into account postal voting. Could this be a key source of error in a year that the age split seems greater than ever?
I thought they did somehow take it into account but not sure.
They will assume change in postal votes for parties will match the change in on-the-day votes for parties. Seems reasonable as postal vote numbers should be roughly in line with 2015 (c. 20% of valid votes).
In 2005 there was a big increase in postal vote applications, so they used a MORI poll to estimate an adjustment (postals moderately less Con-inclined than in 2001). It only made a small difference to the unadjusted estimate.
Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
We had all this in the previous recent elections. Didn't that geezer Sean T say he was heading off to bed on the basis of some early anecdotal reports?
I think the wobbles are coming from the fact we have had a couple of elections where the results were unexpected. What people are not realising is those elections had favourable demographics for the winner i.e older white voters. Labour have a 40%+ deficit with older voters which is much worse then the 24% deficit they had in 2015. This is only going one way, question is the size of May's majority.
Demographics are destiny. You just need the right demographics....
I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
I agree with you. There won't be UNS but I honestly cannot see Labour taking more than 2 or 3 seats back off the Tories. But those 50 Labour held target seats with a majority less than 5k? Is Corbyn really providing enough of a firewall to stop more than half turning Blue?
Some of the polling models showing Labour in the 220s upwards must imply that the Tories will make almost zero inroads in the Midlands and North.
I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
Yes same here, seems impossible to me .However never seen a labour poster in my avenue and I have been here since 92.Now there is 4.,This council area was always solid Lib dem.
The Corbynistas are loud and proud. You know when they are around.
"Muslim voters in Walsall South have received dog whistle messages urging them to vote Labour today because “other minorities have a greater say in the country than we do”. No prizes for guessing who the author means by “other minorities”…"
"Powell had spent much of the 1940s in India, and had seen the communal violence which had swept the country around the date of its independence. The deep divisions between individual groups within the country had led to social discord, and eventually violence. In the year before India’s independence on August 15th, 1947, over half a million people lost their lives as a result of civil strife. It was this fear of communalism that spurred Powell into action."
Since everyone else is putting up picks here's mine Con 354 Lab 221 LD 7 Plaid 5 SNP 41 Majority 58
I've been more bullish on Labour from the start as I never bought the idea that exLabour UKIPers in the North would vote Tory (as OGH said on the podcast). Just sorry I was in the USA when the 156 was available on the spreads for Labour seats.
Here's mine:
Conservative 403 Labour 160 Scottish National 50 Liberal Democrat 10 Democratic Unionist 8 Independent 4 Sinn Féin 4 Plaid Cymru 3 SDLP 3 Ulster Unionist Party 2 UKIP 1 Green 1
As you can see, I am well into landslide territory.
Getting a bit nervous about all these young people turning up and buggering this up though.
Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
We had all this in the previous recent elections. Didn't that geezer Sean T say he was heading off to bed on the basis of some early anecdotal reports?
I think the wobbles are coming from the fact we have had a couple of elections where the results were unexpected. What people are not realising is those elections had favourable demographics for the winner i.e older white voters. Labour have a 40%+ deficit with older voters which is much worse then the 24% deficit they had in 2015. This is only going one way, question is the size of May's majority.
Demographics are destiny. You just need the right demographics....
Young don't vote but will vote Labour a bit more than usual. Old do vote and will vote Tory a bit more than usual. Old voters massively outnumber young voters.
That's this election in it's simplest terms before we get stuck into vote efficiency.
I first thought someone like Boris was voting to generate that type of media scrum lol.
They are keen to capture his penultimate public appearance - if that is anything to go by, the scrum at his declaration should probably be signed up by the British Lions....
Bloody Hell, Alastair Matlock is back! As if my nerves weren't already shredded by last night's Reverse Herdson. Welcome back, Alastair!
Many thanks, Cookie! Nothing like a General Election to stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood and raise old commenters like me from the dead.
For our younger members here, His Grace The Duke of Beaconsfield was Leader of the (dominant) pb Conservative Group from 2005-8. I was honoured to serve as his loyal chief whip.
Another coffin dodger returns. Welcome back to the Dark Lord of Beaconsfield.
"Muslim voters in Walsall South have received dog whistle messages urging them to vote Labour today because “other minorities have a greater say in the country than we do”. No prizes for guessing who the author means by “other minorities”…"
"Powell had spent much of the 1940s in India, and had seen the communal violence which had swept the country around the date of its independence. The deep divisions between individual groups within the country had led to social discord, and eventually violence. In the year before India’s independence on August 15th, 1947, over half a million people lost their lives as a result of civil strife. It was this fear of communalism that spurred Powell into action."
I assume the author was thinking of Hindus and Sikhs. Not Jews.
Comments
I think pollsters are a likely potential target for various state and non-state groups.
Access to the exit poll data could be extremely advantageous for financial advantage, certainly enough to be worth burning a few zero day vulnerabilities on, and I would be surprised if polling company IT security is all that great.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/872782353936130049
Almost 150 young people were there, waiting patiently, holding hands and singing an uplifting song about Jeremy Corbyn and his love for people of all creeds and colours. They made space for me towards the front of the queue, calling me "Sir" and offering to hold my laptop bag because it looked very heavy. One of them ran to the local coffee shop to fetch me a coffee, they all insisted on chipping in so I didn't have to pay for it myself.
I wept with pride at our glorious youth and decided, right there and then, that I too would vote for Jeremy and the wonderful future that he embodies.
I live in Surrey Heath
WillS.
https://twitter.com/TheNCC/status/872758970213175298
Speaking of reshuffling, I suppose if Lab do lose, but not so badly Corbyn goes, it'll be a time for this page to be updated again - it's already impressively long.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_Cabinet_of_Jeremy_Corbyn
Louise Mensch, formerly of this parish, said something on Question Time that resonated with me, during a discussion about binge-drinking and how it can be prevented. Lots of very concerned-looking members of the audience and a sober discussion from the assembled talking heads. I paraphrase, but her point was essentially "if British people want to reduce our problem with binge-drinking, then we will all just have to binge-drink less". A truism on the brink of tautology. But actually, a searingly good point.
'Are you having a wobble Big G?'
Since the campaign started I have been concerned about many things. Of course I was in Canada for three weeks and each day the news seemed more negative and I was not happy about the fox hunting. Then the manifesto disaster on a social care policy that is progressive and if labour were honest they could agree on. I think the concentration on Brexit has failed and was astonished at the lack of attack on Corbyn's economic suicidal policies.
My instinct is usually very good and it is telling me that a 100 majority is not feasible and that I hope TM gets a workable majority but she has been a poor campaigner. In her defence she is not a David Cameron with his polish but a genuine serious politician who is highly competent and just the person we need at present
If at the end of tonight she has a workable majority I will be pleased but I am realistic and prepared for a NOM result
Given I am a baby boomer , I am amazed at the propensity of people to spend on credit for what is basically this year's fashion - and discard it as obsolete after 2-3 years.
If politicians told us what reality is likely to be - another nasty credit crunch some time is likely - no-one would vote for them.
Imagine being told taxes have to rise, the Minimum Wage is being cut and you can't spend what you don't have.. (Labour's 1947 Austerity budget)
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/872781590706913280
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
Of course if jezza gets in all those companies like boohoo will be out of business pretty quickly, as they rely on ZHC staff and delivery companies who also operate in that way.
There's no way the Blues are going to all Spursy today.
Unless Labour are targeting your ward, they are fairly unlikely to have canvassed your street with an armful of posters, calling cards etc. So there may have always been a few who'd have taken one but were never asked. However, members will probably have been sent a poster (and there are more of those than in many years) or their email may well have got to Corbyn via a petition or whatever, and they've clicked something. I wouldn't take it as a real support rise (it may be, but I'd suggest not).
just need a maj of 2 to win that's what I keep telling myself.
Add the phenomena of those register in other areas during term time (done by the universities /SU) are actually routinely unregistered in their own town. I can only assume that this is a very new thing coming in with IVR, I've come across it multiple times during the local elections.
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/872740429803999232
https://twitter.com/benjaminbutter/status/872749735257534464
a) A latte
b) Fair Trade
c) Made with soya milk
If not, that sounds like a Tory hold to me.
Last time I was there, England set a new world record, it was glorious.
Another Linked to choudary, been to uni, been arrested for non terror related criminal activity. It seems like rather a common pattern...
Con 354
Lab 221
LD 7
Plaid 5
SNP 41
Majority 58
I've been more bullish on Labour from the start as I never bought the idea that exLabour UKIPers in the North would vote Tory (as OGH said on the podcast). Just sorry I was in the USA when the 156 was available on the spreads for Labour seats.
In 2005 there was a big increase in postal vote applications, so they used a MORI poll to estimate an adjustment (postals moderately less Con-inclined than in 2001). It only made a small difference to the unadjusted estimate.
Demographics are destiny. You just need the right demographics....
https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/dog-whistle-labour-messages-sent-muslim-voters/
https://twitter.com/James_Dart/status/872785033836343296
Some of the polling models showing Labour in the 220s upwards must imply that the Tories will make almost zero inroads in the Midlands and North.
But they may also be quite scarce beasties.
"Powell had spent much of the 1940s in India, and had seen the communal violence which had swept the country around the date of its independence. The deep divisions between individual groups within the country had led to social discord, and eventually violence. In the year before India’s independence on August 15th, 1947, over half a million people lost their lives as a result of civil strife. It was this fear of communalism that spurred Powell into action."
Conservative 403
Labour 160
Scottish National 50
Liberal Democrat 10
Democratic Unionist 8
Independent 4
Sinn Féin 4
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3
Ulster Unionist Party 2
UKIP 1
Green 1
As you can see, I am well into landslide territory.
Getting a bit nervous about all these young people turning up and buggering this up though.
That's this election in it's simplest terms before we get stuck into vote efficiency.
Would be an interesting night if Labour hold those seats.
......................................
Putting up my final JWCBI at 2:00pm