politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final poll, Ipsos MORI, has CON lead up 3 to 8% + latest b
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Monster raving loony party?SouthamObserver said:Have attended the polling station. Never faced such a poor choice. Felt genuinely depressed looking at what was in front of me. Acted accordingly.
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Labour leading in the 35-54 group!? Isn't that unusual?CarlottaVance said:Another chart from Mr Page:
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/8727662930819809280 -
LD ?SouthamObserver said:Have attended the polling station. Never faced such a poor choice. Felt genuinely depressed looking at what was in front of me. Acted accordingly.
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Many thanks, Cookie! Nothing like a General Election to stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood and raise old commenters like me from the dead.Cookie said:Bloody Hell, Alastair Matlock is back! As if my nerves weren't already shredded by last night's Reverse Herdson. Welcome back, Alastair!
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Baron Badger was at the top of my voting slip. I seem to have missed him and gone for the Tory though!FrancisUrquhart said:
Monster raving loony party?SouthamObserver said:Have attended the polling station. Never faced such a poor choice. Felt genuinely depressed looking at what was in front of me. Acted accordingly.
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I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.0
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I am breaking the mould then - 2 Tory votes (previously LD and non-vote)Charles said:
LibDem or Labourkle4 said:
No, just brickworth with some grass in the gaps, and newish Mini. Which way would they vote based on that 'garden'?RobinWiggs said:
Depends on whether there is an oil spot where a van is parked at night, or not.kle4 said:
What about one where the garden has been turned into a bricked driveway, with sporadic weeds/grass growing out of the brickwork?Casino_Royale said:
I find you can predict the voting intention of the householder with 80% accuracy by looking at the garden.madasafish said:Regarding placards, this GE there are two on one house on the main road 0.5 miles away.(We are a solidly Tory constituency (was solidly Labour 20 years ago)..
The house with the placards is on a smart road populated by largeish detached houses plus bungalows. The single house with Labour placards has an overgrown garden and 4-5 scrap cars in the front garden - if you can see them for the foliage.. and is delapidated and has got steadily worse since we came here 30 odd years ago..
I was tempted to photo it and post it with the slogan "Vote Labour and the entire road will be like this in 5 years time"
Once found a pristine garden, Jaguar in the drive, and a Union Jack flying up a flagpole.
I didn't even bother knocking on the door.0 -
Sensible enough. The distribution of results from any model is enormous, given how inaccurate UK polling is.Chris said:I see Betfair currently has 1.1 for the Conservatives having most seats. That implies the markets are allowing a 10% probability for the polls being out by a mile.
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You broke down weeping?SouthamObserver said:Have attended the polling station. Never faced such a poor choice. Felt genuinely depressed looking at what was in front of me. Acted accordingly.
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Shocked I tell you, shockedTheuniondivvie said:The one endorsement that all the political parties have been desperate for.
https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/872781024400474113
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Perhaps not the only ones.kle4 said:Well there was MI5 too.
Russian military intelligence carried out a cyber-attack on at least one US voting software supplier and sent spear-phishing emails to more than a hundred local election officials days before the poll, the Intercept reported on Monday.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jun/05/russia-us-election-hack-voting-system-nsa-report
I think pollsters are a likely potential target for various state and non-state groups.
Access to the exit poll data could be extremely advantageous for financial advantage, certainly enough to be worth burning a few zero day vulnerabilities on, and I would be surprised if polling company IT security is all that great.0 -
This "longest serving Home Secretary" stuff is getting old. David Cameron did not like reshuffles. Probably most of his Cabinet were the longest serving something-or-other. IDS did six years at the DWP. It tells us nothing.AHMatlock said:
Thank you, sir. Yes, that is probably true. The social care manifesto wasn't wholly without merit, but it does seem to have been very poorly thought through particularly in terms of its political implications being put in the manifesto for release in the midst of a campaign. Either the political sensitivities were not given sufficient consideration or somebody felt that the electorate, faced with a LOTO thought to be unelectable, would swallow them anyway. I suppose I just don't cope with shocks and surprises now in my dotage as I did when I was young and spry!Baskerville said:
Welcome back, Alistair.AHMatlock said:Pong said:fpt;
Any predictions for Theresas post-election purge?
I can't recall a campaign (other than brexit) where so many on an incumbent PM's own side have made enemies of themselves.
Timothy and Hill will have drawn up their hitlist.
The executions will commence at dawn.
Magnanimity in victory would be preferable, but if there is to be a purge then I would submit Nick Timothy's name for the top of the list.
Having won a mandate in her own right (presuming that is indeed the outcome), this would be an opportunity for the Prime Minister to bind old wounds and get the party back on track for the difficult task of governing and navigating Brexit that lies ahead.
There's a lot of BS written about TM and her inner circle by people who have never met any of them. Mrs May didn't get where she is today without being a pragmatist, and although not a schmoozer in the style of Cameron, she is probably more in touch with the instincts of the party than he was. Ergo, I think a small reshuffle and a concentration on business at hand, with some of the more 'challenging' manifesto commitments shelved for the foreseeable. Inner circles often do not survive contact with the enemy, so I would expect one or both of NT and FH to move into a public affairs role somewhere else and May try to find herself advisers more used to the grapeshot and a politician or two to play the Willie Whitelaw role... Davis could do it, but his day job is rather too important.
Certainly agree with what you say about Mrs May's characteristics as a tough politician and a pragmatist - she was, after all, the longest serving Home Secretary in my memory. I think a Willie figure would be useful to her. Perhaps Fallon would be a good fit for that sort of job?0 -
Sour grapes ? If the campaign was rubbish it was because the Cons could afford to keep it safe because JC is so abject.SouthamObserver said:Have attended the polling station. Never faced such a poor choice. Felt genuinely depressed looking at what was in front of me. Acted accordingly.
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Very few pundits now predicting anything lower than 200 now - your reputation will be strong if you are right.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
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The workers back Labour; the shirkers go for the Tories ;-)CarlottaVance said:Another chart from Mr Page:
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/872766293081980928
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I think so. There's some big value on SkyBet on the Cons size of majority bands esp above 100+. It's far better than the 400+ seat total and the vote share etc. You can still get 13/2 on 100-124 and 12-1 on 125-149.TGOHF said:
Value is betting on 100+ majority.MarqueeMark said:
Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?
Labour are going to get beasted.0 -
"Dementia tax" safe? Well, it's a view....TGOHF said:
Sour grapes ? If the campaign was rubbish it was because the Cons could afford to keep it safe because JC is so abject.SouthamObserver said:Have attended the polling station. Never faced such a poor choice. Felt genuinely depressed looking at what was in front of me. Acted accordingly.
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Not at all (thanks!). That was my point, really. I have 4 different chronic illnesses and am fit as a fiddle.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rex, hope it isn't too bad.
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I got down the polls early before I had to head off across country, did the dirty for the first time, mailed in my coupon for chargrilled baby, and back for a quick shower in dettol. Hoping I will get back before 10pm for the fun and games0
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When I went to vote this morning there was a queue outside of the polling station!
Almost 150 young people were there, waiting patiently, holding hands and singing an uplifting song about Jeremy Corbyn and his love for people of all creeds and colours. They made space for me towards the front of the queue, calling me "Sir" and offering to hold my laptop bag because it looked very heavy. One of them ran to the local coffee shop to fetch me a coffee, they all insisted on chipping in so I didn't have to pay for it myself.
I wept with pride at our glorious youth and decided, right there and then, that I too would vote for Jeremy and the wonderful future that he embodies.
I live in Surrey Heath
WillS.0 -
Not sure which Nottingham constituency this would cover:
https://twitter.com/TheNCC/status/8727589702131752980 -
Not nothing. Six years in a high profile ministry without cocking up so much you are moved is still impressive, even though Cameron did not like reshuffling.DecrepitJohnL said:
This "longest serving Home Secretary" stuff is getting old. David Cameron did not like reshuffles. Probably most of his Cabinet were the longest serving something-or-other. IDS did six years at the DWP. It tells us nothing.AHMatlock said:
Thank you, sir. Yes, that is probably true. The social care manifesto wasn't wholly without merit, but it does seem to have been very poorly thought through particularly in terms of its political implications being put in the manifesto for release in the midst of a campaign. Either the political sensitivities were not given sufficient consideration or somebody felt that the electorate, faced with a LOTO thought to be unelectable, would swallow them anyway. I suppose I just don't cope with shocks and surprises now in my dotage as I did when I was young and spry!Baskerville said:
Welcome back, Alistair.AHMatlock said:Pong said:fpt;
Any predictions for Theresas post-election purge?
I can't recall a campaign (other than brexit) where so many on an incumbent PM's own side have made enemies of themselves.
Timothy and Hill will have drawn up their hitlist.
The executions will commence at dawn.
Magnanimity in victory would be preferable, but if there is to be a purge then I would submit Nick Timothy's name for the top of the list.
Having won a mandate in her own right (presuming that is indeed the outcome), this would be an opportunity for the Prime Minister to bind old wounds and get the party back on track for the difficult task of governing and navigating Brexit that lies ahead.
There's a lot of BS mportant.
Certainly agree with what you say about Mrs May's characteristics as a tough politician and a pragmatist - she was, after all, the longest serving Home Secretary in my memory. I think a Willie figure would be useful to her. Perhaps Fallon would be a good fit for that sort of job?
Speaking of reshuffling, I suppose if Lab do lose, but not so badly Corbyn goes, it'll be a time for this page to be updated again - it's already impressively long.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_Cabinet_of_Jeremy_Corbyn0 -
Top post! Loved this bit in particular. We all love, love, love the NHS. But, oddly, not enough to actually look after ourselves (despite our obvious self-interest in doing so!) so that overworked doctors and nurses never have to look us in the eye and tell us bad news about how we're going to have debilitating health, or die, which they (and we) full well know we could have avoided. It's collectively silly of us.JonCisBack said:
We want the NHS to be world class, free, there all the time, but eat shit, drink too much and do no exercise
Louise Mensch, formerly of this parish, said something on Question Time that resonated with me, during a discussion about binge-drinking and how it can be prevented. Lots of very concerned-looking members of the audience and a sober discussion from the assembled talking heads. I paraphrase, but her point was essentially "if British people want to reduce our problem with binge-drinking, then we will all just have to binge-drink less". A truism on the brink of tautology. But actually, a searingly good point.0 -
My current forecast is about 190 seats for Labour but in some ways that's a best case scenario for them. If people are thinking about security rather than the NHS as they enter the polling station it could be a lot worse.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
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Yes same here, seems impossible to me .However never seen a labour poster in my avenue and I have been here since 92.Now there is 4.,This council area was always solid Lib dem.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
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More or less. Then I walked out again, having deposited an empty ballot paper in the box. The first time I have ever done it.kle4 said:
You broke down weeping?SouthamObserver said:Have attended the polling station. Never faced such a poor choice. Felt genuinely depressed looking at what was in front of me. Acted accordingly.
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What utter dicks.Scrapheap_as_was said:ermm...
twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/8727823539361300490 -
Mr. Matlock, congratulations on your resurrection
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This "dark" ads terminology is deeply annoying. That's just how you buy advertising on social media platforms - targeted at particular users.kle4 said:Keep going on wrong thread
Hmm. Carshalton a LD hold. 3 Lab gains in the southwest (Bristol East, and both plymouth seats).CarlottaVance said:
One more for the list (comes with v clever interactive zoomable map):AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160
Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.
http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/
Con: 350
Lab: 224
Lib: 8
SNP: 45
Con Maj 50
Also the people's republic of Brighton to expand to Kemptown (they almost got it last time)
Edit
Bad new for the LDs in Kemptown - wiki says they've already got 0 votes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighton_Kemptown_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Some on here have said locals were good for LDs and that he might even get plenty of the UKIP vote. A lot of models have him down as 95+% certain to lose, but RCs for one has him holding.volcanopete said:The Tory apparatchiks must be flooding into North Norfolk from what I saw this morning to complete stage 2 of the Lib Dem decapitation strategy on Norman Lamb.The Tories are throwing the kitchen sink to guillotine him."Dark" Facebook ads is where the Tories magic money tree is going.Con 1-2 LD 13-8 .Is Norman's very high incumbency factor big enough to counter the purple to blue switchers and is he able to squeaze the Labour vote?
Several of my older relatives enjoy a good racing game - you can get decent gamign wheels and pedals, and rather than the expense of gaming chair (my father's back was not really up for lowering himself into and getting up from the one we used to have)just get a custom wheel stand and do it from the comfort of a regular chair.0 -
Depends on which campus it is but I would assume Nottingham South.SouthamObserver said:Not sure which Nottingham constituency this would cover:
https://twitter.com/TheNCC/status/8727589702131752980 -
Nottingham East is the constituency where Nottingham Trent Uni is, so that's held by Labour.SouthamObserver said:Not sure which Nottingham constituency this would cover:
https://twitter.com/TheNCC/status/8727589702131752980 -
GiN
'Are you having a wobble Big G?'
Since the campaign started I have been concerned about many things. Of course I was in Canada for three weeks and each day the news seemed more negative and I was not happy about the fox hunting. Then the manifesto disaster on a social care policy that is progressive and if labour were honest they could agree on. I think the concentration on Brexit has failed and was astonished at the lack of attack on Corbyn's economic suicidal policies.
My instinct is usually very good and it is telling me that a 100 majority is not feasible and that I hope TM gets a workable majority but she has been a poor campaigner. In her defence she is not a David Cameron with his polish but a genuine serious politician who is highly competent and just the person we need at present
If at the end of tonight she has a workable majority I will be pleased but I am realistic and prepared for a NOM result0 -
Okay, thanks.brokenwheel said:
Not according to this:AndyJS said:
I thought they did somehow take it into account but not sure.brokenwheel said:One thing about the exit poll, they don't seem to take into account postal voting. Could this be a key source of error in a year that the age split seems greater than ever?
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/0 -
Mr. Observer, one trusts you voted Morris Dancer - the only party promising to launch criminals into the North Sea, and invade France.0
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Well yes.JonCisBack said:I have sympathy with the abstainers on here. What a piss poor election this has been all round
But I would suggest that we the mighty electorate are in no small way responsible for that sorry state of affairs ourselves (present company excepted of course)
We want low taxes (for us personally at least - they can be higher for other people...) and better public services
We want a growing economy but we don't like immigration
We want pay rises for public servants but also money for more operations and bobbies on the beat
We want honest politicians but popularity is achieved by those who are frankly anything but
We want well paid jobs and successful companies but think business is a great source of endless tax
We want the NHS to be world class, free, there all the time, but eat shit, drink too much and do no exercise
We just want government to make it all better for us
We basically want the circle to be square, and woe betide anyone who tries to have a grown up debate about the deep shit we are already in and how much deeper it will inevitably get.
I think we get what we deserve :-/
Given I am a baby boomer , I am amazed at the propensity of people to spend on credit for what is basically this year's fashion - and discard it as obsolete after 2-3 years.
If politicians told us what reality is likely to be - another nasty credit crunch some time is likely - no-one would vote for them.
Imagine being told taxes have to rise, the Minimum Wage is being cut and you can't spend what you don't have.. (Labour's 1947 Austerity budget)
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Well it is a polling station right in the middle of a Uni. LOL. You would have to be lazy on another level not to vote.Richard_Tyndall said:
Depends on which campus it is but I would assume Nottingham South.SouthamObserver said:Not sure which Nottingham constituency this would cover:
https://twitter.com/TheNCC/status/8727589702131752980 -
I trust you will not complain then when May wins a mandate for her Brexit position and you failed to vote LD to oppose itSouthamObserver said:
More or less. Then I walked out again, having deposited an empty ballot paper in the box. The first time I have ever done it.kle4 said:
You broke down weeping?SouthamObserver said:Have attended the polling station. Never faced such a poor choice. Felt genuinely depressed looking at what was in front of me. Acted accordingly.
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Ms Dugdale comes out swinging:
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/8727815907069132800 -
Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.0 -
You are well out of date on fashion with the yuff. These days it is all about order today, deliver tomorrow, throw away after bring worn once.madasafish said:
Well yes.JonCisBack said:I have sympathy with the abstainers on here. What a piss poor election this has been all round
But I would suggest that we the mighty electorate are in no small way responsible for that sorry state of affairs ourselves (present company excepted of course)
We want low taxes (for us personally at least - they can be higher for other people...) and better public services
We want a growing economy but we don't like immigration
We want pay rises for public servants but also money for more operations and bobbies on the beat
We want honest politicians but popularity is achieved by those who are frankly anything but
We want well paid jobs and successful companies but think business is a great source of endless tax
We want the NHS to be world class, free, there all the time, but eat shit, drink too much and do no exercise
We just want government to make it all better for us
We basically want the circle to be square, and woe betide anyone who tries to have a grown up debate about the deep shit we are already in and how much deeper it will inevitably get.
I think we get what we deserve :-/
Given I am a baby boomer , I am amazed at the propensity of people to spend on credit for what is basically this year's fashion - and discard it as obsolete after 2-3 years.
If politicians told us what reality is likely to be - another nasty credit crunch some time is likely - no-one would vote for them.
Imagine being told taxes have to rise, the Minimum Wage is being cut and you can't spend what you don't have.. (Labour's 1947 Austerity budget)
Of course if jezza gets in all those companies like boohoo will be out of business pretty quickly, as they rely on ZHC staff and delivery companies who also operate in that way.0 -
Indeed – why they had to crowd the doorway when all had telephoto lenses is baffling.FrancisUrquhart said:
What utter dicks.Scrapheap_as_was said:ermm...
twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/8727823539361300490 -
We had all this in the previous recent elections. Didn't that geezer Sean T say he was heading off to bed on the basis of some early anecdotal reports?Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.0 -
SeanT isn't a geezer. Surely he's more of a cad?JennyFreeman said:
We had all this in the previous recent elections. Didn't that geezer Sean T say he was heading off to bed on the basis of some early anecdotal reports?Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.0 -
Now 1.26.....Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.0 -
I thought it was gonna be voters with differing views......my god! No doubt the fault of Brexit.....Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
1.26 now! Arbs between Overall Majority & Next Govt on BFScrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.0 -
Embarrassing...Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
It is perfectly possible and easy to mentally tally postal votes (in a two horse race) and get a fairly accurate aassament of the state of play after a while. If anything all the polls are underestimating cons and overestimating labour. In this two horse race the other parties are absolutely nowhere. Con held Con / lab north west marginal with strong leave.brokenwheel said:One thing about the exit poll, they don't seem to take into account postal voting. Could this be a key source of error in a year that the age split seems greater than ever?
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Pile on.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Now 1.26.....Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
There's no way the Blues are going to all Spursy today.0 -
That's the city centre campus, so should be Notts east...I think.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nottingham East is the constituency where Nottingham Trent Uni is, so that's held by Labour.SouthamObserver said:Not sure which Nottingham constituency this would cover:
https://twitter.com/TheNCC/status/8727589702131752980 -
But that will probably be part of Labour membership surge and/or a function of growth of online campaigning.Yorkcity said:
Yes same here, seems impossible to me .However never seen a labour poster in my avenue and I have been here since 92.Now there is 4.,This council area was always solid Lib dem.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
Unless Labour are targeting your ward, they are fairly unlikely to have canvassed your street with an armful of posters, calling cards etc. So there may have always been a few who'd have taken one but were never asked. However, members will probably have been sent a poster (and there are more of those than in many years) or their email may well have got to Corbyn via a petition or whatever, and they've clicked something. I wouldn't take it as a real support rise (it may be, but I'd suggest not).0 -
If that's a sign to the 'Arkwright Building' Mr Google says 'City Campus'Richard_Tyndall said:
Depends on which campus it is but I would assume Nottingham South.SouthamObserver said:Not sure which Nottingham constituency this would cover:
https://twitter.com/TheNCC/status/8727589702131752980 -
It would been interesting to see a map of big student areas, currently held by and which have broken up for the summer. I was on a uni campus yesterday and it was totally deserted.0
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the only reason this election could have been close is because of the NHS being so important this election, the oldies use it the most. But they are firmly in May's camp. So it wont be close.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
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When was the last time Spurs were odds on for a trophy and blew it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Pile on.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Now 1.26.....Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
There's no way the Blues are going to all Spursy today.0 -
I daren't.... not with any more... I had a wobble last night after David Herdson's post so put another £1k on it as bravado.... we Spurs fans know how hope can kill you and fear of defeat when seemingly impossible...TheScreamingEagles said:
Pile on.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Now 1.26.....Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
There's no way the Blues are going to all Spursy today.
just need a maj of 2 to win that's what I keep telling myself.0 -
Waiting for Tim Farron seemingly !jonny83 said:
Embarrassing...Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
Which made me think, yeah, why not just leave blank instead of spoiling? I suppose so that a naughty teller can't turn it into the vote of their choice.SouthamObserver said:
More or less. Then I walked out again, having deposited an empty ballot paper in the box. The first time I have ever done it.kle4 said:
You broke down weeping?SouthamObserver said:Have attended the polling station. Never faced such a poor choice. Felt genuinely depressed looking at what was in front of me. Acted accordingly.
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Yup, smack bang by the tram lines in the city centre. It's much nicer then when I attended....CarlottaVance said:
If that's a sign to the 'Arkwright Building' Mr Google says 'City Campus'Richard_Tyndall said:
Depends on which campus it is but I would assume Nottingham South.SouthamObserver said:Not sure which Nottingham constituency this would cover:
https://twitter.com/TheNCC/status/8727589702131752980 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
It would been interesting to see a map of big student areas, currently held by and which have broken up for the summer. On was on a uni campus yesterday and it was totally deserted.
Add the phenomena of those register in other areas during term time (done by the universities /SU) are actually routinely unregistered in their own town. I can only assume that this is a very new thing coming in with IVR, I've come across it multiple times during the local elections.
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When it comes to Nottingham, all I know is where Trent Bridge is.HaroldO said:
That's the city centre campus, so should be Notts east...I think.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nottingham East is the constituency where Nottingham Trent Uni is, so that's held by Labour.SouthamObserver said:Not sure which Nottingham constituency this would cover:
https://twitter.com/TheNCC/status/8727589702131752980 -
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Can't be certain, but I think the current BF price is the result of a major punter greening out.0
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2002 League Cup Final?isam said:
When was the last time Spurs were odds on for a trophy and blew it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Pile on.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Now 1.26.....Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
There's no way the Blues are going to all Spursy today.0 -
For our younger members here, His Grace The Duke of Beaconsfield was Leader of the (dominant) pb Conservative Group from 2005-8. I was honoured to serve as his loyal chief whip.AHMatlock said:
Many thanks, Cookie! Nothing like a General Election to stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood and raise old commenters like me from the dead.Cookie said:Bloody Hell, Alastair Matlock is back! As if my nerves weren't already shredded by last night's Reverse Herdson. Welcome back, Alastair!
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Shops In waitrose.....Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
I understand, someone has reminded me less than 48 hrs ago, Virgil van Dijk was 1/16 to be a Liverpool player on 2/9/17Scrapheap_as_was said:
I daren't.... not with any more... I had a wobble last night after David Herdson's post so put another £1k on it as bravado.... we Spurs fans know how hope can kill you and fear of defeat when seemingly impossible...TheScreamingEagles said:
Pile on.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Now 1.26.....Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
There's no way the Blues are going to all Spursy today.
just need a maj of 2 to win that's what I keep telling myself.0 -
This is key, labour are DEFENDING seats.FrancisUrquhart said:
Shouldnt he be in NY saving the world?AndreaParma_82 said:David Miliband was doing GOTV in Ilford North earlier, now moved to Ealing Central
Part of West Ham CLP decamped to Ilford North0 -
I think he prefers boulevardier.....though bounder might also fit.....kle4 said:
SeanT isn't a geezer. Surely he's more of a cad?JennyFreeman said:
We had all this in the previous recent elections. Didn't that geezer Sean T say he was heading off to bed on the basis of some early anecdotal reports?Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.0 -
Presumably Miliband was doing GOTV for the Tories? Only way he will be PM is if Corbyn is wiped out in this election.nunu said:
This is key, labour are DEFENDING seats.FrancisUrquhart said:
Shouldnt he be in NY saving the world?AndreaParma_82 said:David Miliband was doing GOTV in Ilford North earlier, now moved to Ealing Central
Part of West Ham CLP decamped to Ilford North0 -
There's posh.TheScreamingEagles said:
When it comes to Nottingham, all I know is where Trent Bridge is.HaroldO said:
That's the city centre campus, so should be Notts east...I think.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nottingham East is the constituency where Nottingham Trent Uni is, so that's held by Labour.SouthamObserver said:Not sure which Nottingham constituency this would cover:
https://twitter.com/TheNCC/status/8727589702131752980 -
Mountebank?CarlottaVance said:
I think he prefers boulevardier.....though bounder might also fit.....kle4 said:
SeanT isn't a geezer. Surely he's more of a cad?JennyFreeman said:
We had all this in the previous recent elections. Didn't that geezer Sean T say he was heading off to bed on the basis of some early anecdotal reports?Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.0 -
I hope the coffee was:wills66 said:When I went to vote this morning there was a queue outside of the polling station!
Almost 150 young people were there, waiting patiently, holding hands and singing an uplifting song about Jeremy Corbyn and his love for people of all creeds and colours. They made space for me towards the front of the queue, calling me "Sir" and offering to hold my laptop bag because it looked very heavy. One of them ran to the local coffee shop to fetch me a coffee, they all insisted on chipping in so I didn't have to pay for it myself.
I wept with pride at our glorious youth and decided, right there and then, that I too would vote for Jeremy and the wonderful future that he embodies.
I live in Surrey Heath
WillS.
a) A latte
b) Fair Trade
c) Made with soya milk
If not, that sounds like a Tory hold to me.0 -
I love my cricket.HaroldO said:
There's posh.TheScreamingEagles said:
When it comes to Nottingham, all I know is where Trent Bridge is.HaroldO said:
That's the city centre campus, so should be Notts east...I think.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nottingham East is the constituency where Nottingham Trent Uni is, so that's held by Labour.SouthamObserver said:Not sure which Nottingham constituency this would cover:
https://twitter.com/TheNCC/status/872758970213175298
Last time I was there, England set a new world record, it was glorious.0 -
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4583456/London-Bridge-ringleader-police-BAIL.html
Another Linked to choudary, been to uni, been arrested for non terror related criminal activity. It seems like rather a common pattern...0 -
How's it going in Hersham JohnO?JohnO said:
For our younger members here, His Grace The Duke of Beaconsfield was Leader of the (dominant) pb Conservative Group from 2005-8. I was honoured to serve as his loyal chief whip.AHMatlock said:
Many thanks, Cookie! Nothing like a General Election to stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood and raise old commenters like me from the dead.Cookie said:Bloody Hell, Alastair Matlock is back! As if my nerves weren't already shredded by last night's Reverse Herdson. Welcome back, Alastair!
0 -
Since everyone else is putting up picks here's mine
Con 354
Lab 221
LD 7
Plaid 5
SNP 41
Majority 58
I've been more bullish on Labour from the start as I never bought the idea that exLabour UKIPers in the North would vote Tory (as OGH said on the podcast). Just sorry I was in the USA when the 156 was available on the spreads for Labour seats.
0 -
It must be difficult to slit your wrists with a stubby pencil on a length of string.SouthamObserver said:Have attended the polling station. Never faced such a poor choice. Felt genuinely depressed looking at what was in front of me. Acted accordingly.
0 -
They will assume change in postal votes for parties will match the change in on-the-day votes for parties. Seems reasonable as postal vote numbers should be roughly in line with 2015 (c. 20% of valid votes).AndyJS said:
Okay, thanks.brokenwheel said:
Not according to this:AndyJS said:
I thought they did somehow take it into account but not sure.brokenwheel said:One thing about the exit poll, they don't seem to take into account postal voting. Could this be a key source of error in a year that the age split seems greater than ever?
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/
In 2005 there was a big increase in postal vote applications, so they used a MORI poll to estimate an adjustment (postals moderately less Con-inclined than in 2001). It only made a small difference to the unadjusted estimate.
0 -
I think the wobbles are coming from the fact we have had a couple of elections where the results were unexpected. What people are not realising is those elections had favourable demographics for the winner i.e older white voters. Labour have a 40%+ deficit with older voters which is much worse then the 24% deficit they had in 2015. This is only going one way, question is the size of May's majority.JennyFreeman said:
We had all this in the previous recent elections. Didn't that geezer Sean T say he was heading off to bed on the basis of some early anecdotal reports?Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
Demographics are destiny. You just need the right demographics....0 -
There is gotv operation and there is...
https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/dog-whistle-labour-messages-sent-muslim-voters/0 -
0
-
should have brought a pen...SandyRentool said:
It must be difficult to slit your wrists with a stubby pencil on a length of string.SouthamObserver said:Have attended the polling station. Never faced such a poor choice. Felt genuinely depressed looking at what was in front of me. Acted accordingly.
0 -
I agree with you. There won't be UNS but I honestly cannot see Labour taking more than 2 or 3 seats back off the Tories. But those 50 Labour held target seats with a majority less than 5k? Is Corbyn really providing enough of a firewall to stop more than half turning Blue?SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
Some of the polling models showing Labour in the 220s upwards must imply that the Tories will make almost zero inroads in the Midlands and North.0 -
I first thought someone like Boris was voting to generate that type of media scrum lol.calum said:
Waiting for Tim Farron seemingly !jonny83 said:
Embarrassing...Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
2015 Lab Maj 589 and 274 respectively. Golly.nunu said:
This is key, labour are DEFENDING seats.FrancisUrquhart said:
Shouldnt he be in NY saving the world?AndreaParma_82 said:David Miliband was doing GOTV in Ilford North earlier, now moved to Ealing Central
Part of West Ham CLP decamped to Ilford North0 -
The Corbynistas are loud and proud. You know when they are around.Yorkcity said:
Yes same here, seems impossible to me .However never seen a labour poster in my avenue and I have been here since 92.Now there is 4.,This council area was always solid Lib dem.SouthamObserver said:I am genuinely surprised that so many people are forecasting Labour will get over or even close to 200 seats. I just don't see how they do it.
But they may also be quite scarce beasties.0 -
I'm not sure the content justifies the hysteria. There are times when I wonder just how neutral and objective young Guido is.FrancisUrquhart said:There is gotv operation and there is...
https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/dog-whistle-labour-messages-sent-muslim-voters/0 -
"Muslim voters in Walsall South have received dog whistle messages urging them to vote Labour today because “other minorities have a greater say in the country than we do”. No prizes for guessing who the author means by “other minorities”…"FrancisUrquhart said:There is gotv operation and there is...
https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/dog-whistle-labour-messages-sent-muslim-voters/
"Powell had spent much of the 1940s in India, and had seen the communal violence which had swept the country around the date of its independence. The deep divisions between individual groups within the country had led to social discord, and eventually violence. In the year before India’s independence on August 15th, 1947, over half a million people lost their lives as a result of civil strife. It was this fear of communalism that spurred Powell into action."0 -
Here's mine:PaulM said:Since everyone else is putting up picks here's mine
Con 354
Lab 221
LD 7
Plaid 5
SNP 41
Majority 58
I've been more bullish on Labour from the start as I never bought the idea that exLabour UKIPers in the North would vote Tory (as OGH said on the podcast). Just sorry I was in the USA when the 156 was available on the spreads for Labour seats.
Conservative 403
Labour 160
Scottish National 50
Liberal Democrat 10
Democratic Unionist 8
Independent 4
Sinn Féin 4
Plaid Cymru 3
SDLP 3
Ulster Unionist Party 2
UKIP 1
Green 1
As you can see, I am well into landslide territory.
Getting a bit nervous about all these young people turning up and buggering this up though.0 -
Young don't vote but will vote Labour a bit more than usual. Old do vote and will vote Tory a bit more than usual. Old voters massively outnumber young voters.nunu said:
I think the wobbles are coming from the fact we have had a couple of elections where the results were unexpected. What people are not realising is those elections had favourable demographics for the winner i.e older white voters. Labour have a 40%+ deficit with older voters which is much worse then the 24% deficit they had in 2015. This is only going one way, question is the size of May's majority.JennyFreeman said:
We had all this in the previous recent elections. Didn't that geezer Sean T say he was heading off to bed on the basis of some early anecdotal reports?Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
Demographics are destiny. You just need the right demographics....
That's this election in it's simplest terms before we get stuck into vote efficiency.0 -
It is interesting, Labour must think they have a chance of holding those.Ishmael_Z said:
2015 Lab Maj 589 and 274 respectively. Golly.nunu said:
This is key, labour are DEFENDING seats.FrancisUrquhart said:
Shouldnt he be in NY saving the world?AndreaParma_82 said:David Miliband was doing GOTV in Ilford North earlier, now moved to Ealing Central
Part of West Ham CLP decamped to Ilford North
Would be an interesting night if Labour hold those seats.0 -
They are keen to capture his penultimate public appearance - if that is anything to go by, the scrum at his declaration should probably be signed up by the British Lions....jonny83 said:
I first thought someone like Boris was voting to generate that type of media scrum lol.calum said:
Waiting for Tim Farron seemingly !jonny83 said:
Embarrassing...Scrapheap_as_was said:0 -
Another coffin dodger returns. Welcome back to the Dark Lord of Beaconsfield.JohnO said:
For our younger members here, His Grace The Duke of Beaconsfield was Leader of the (dominant) pb Conservative Group from 2005-8. I was honoured to serve as his loyal chief whip.AHMatlock said:
Many thanks, Cookie! Nothing like a General Election to stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood and raise old commenters like me from the dead.Cookie said:Bloody Hell, Alastair Matlock is back! As if my nerves weren't already shredded by last night's Reverse Herdson. Welcome back, Alastair!
......................................
Putting up my final JWCBI at 2:00pm0 -
I am not going to be shocked if labour do well in London.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is interesting, Labour must think they have a chance of holding those.Ishmael_Z said:
2015 Lab Maj 589 and 274 respectively. Golly.nunu said:
This is key, labour are DEFENDING seats.FrancisUrquhart said:
Shouldnt he be in NY saving the world?AndreaParma_82 said:David Miliband was doing GOTV in Ilford North earlier, now moved to Ealing Central
Part of West Ham CLP decamped to Ilford North
Would be an interesting night if Labour hold those seats.0 -
I assume the author was thinking of Hindus and Sikhs. Not Jews.isam said:
"Muslim voters in Walsall South have received dog whistle messages urging them to vote Labour today because “other minorities have a greater say in the country than we do”. No prizes for guessing who the author means by “other minorities”…"FrancisUrquhart said:There is gotv operation and there is...
https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/dog-whistle-labour-messages-sent-muslim-voters/
"Powell had spent much of the 1940s in India, and had seen the communal violence which had swept the country around the date of its independence. The deep divisions between individual groups within the country had led to social discord, and eventually violence. In the year before India’s independence on August 15th, 1947, over half a million people lost their lives as a result of civil strife. It was this fear of communalism that spurred Powell into action."0
