politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final poll, Ipsos MORI, has CON lead up 3 to 8% + latest b

Second like Corbyn.

https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872768190367109120

The most revealing thing about the mori poll was the claim that labour can only get 36% if the yuff turn out in big numbers.

What I will be interested to know is for example how many students are registered at uni and now gone home.

If you backed Con 350-374 at 7, and 375-399 at 4.5 [Ladbrokes], then the lay value of 350-399 on Betfair of 1.62 *may* be of interest. However, it's fallen steadily so far today and I think it will continue to do so. But if you want a safety first hedge, it's there.

FPT:

Quote from Harold Wilson in 1970 after he'd reduced the voting age from 21 to 18:

"We gave the youngsters a vote and the buggers didn't use it."

CarlottaVance said:

Pong said:

Timothy and Hill will have drawn up their hitlist.

Timothy may be on it.......

I visit from the Men In Grey Suits to lay down some "guidelines" might be required.....

TheScreamingEagles said:

As I noted in the podcast last night

https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/872758791657410560

Wouldn't you expect it to fall in line with voting intentions though as people consider what is in front of them and who the will vote for?

Betfair Exchange: Con maj of 100-124 single most popular option with punters at 5.3/5.4.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131146542

CarlottaVance said:

Another chart from Mr Page:

twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/872766293081980928

Interesting may lost her big lead among the middle aged. When Tories were moles ahead in the polls other than the yuff may was more popular than Ed sheeran.

The polls have hearded. Not on the headline figure but on the best PM figure. They are all showing a 10-13% lead on best PM. Even Survation with 1% tory lead is showing a Best PM lead of 15%!

Anyone know what was the avreage of the best PM lead of the polls on polling day 2015?

TOPPING said:

fpt

Casino_Royale said:

It truly is incredible that Philip Hammond has got away with being totally invisible this campaign, without anyone in the media making a major song and dance about it.

Just incredible.

Same as Tezza in the Brexit debate. Make of that what you will...

Oh god no...

What are the odds of May winning a healthy majority and then getting '22'ed, in short order, anyway?

https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/john-mcdonnells-school-days/

Maybe he didn't realise it was a private school?

I honestly can't believe McDonnell hasn't been buried this GE in the way abbot has. The number of lies he has told are incredible.

TOPPING said:

fpt

Casino_Royale said:

It truly is incredible that Philip Hammond has got away with being totally invisible this campaign, without anyone in the media making a major song and dance about it.

Just incredible.

Same as Tezza in the Brexit debate. Make of that what you will...

Hmm. Thing is, aside from being "dry", I'm not sure his political judgement is any better.

It seems to me there's a lot of talent on the backbenches that needs to be brought in.

Pong said:

fpt;

Any predictions for Theresas post-election purge?

I can't recall a campaign (other than brexit) where so many on an incumbent PM's own side have made enemies of themselves.

Timothy and Hill will have drawn up their hitlist.

The executions will commence at dawn.

If she fires too many, she may end up having no choice but to resort to Diane Abbott.

David Miliband was doing GOTV in Ilford North earlier, now moved to Ealing Central

Part of West Ham CLP decamped to Ilford North

MarqueeMark said:

The mood music since QT has been poor for Labour. Not brilliant for May either, especially on police numbers, but the scrutiny of Labour on security matters and the past comments of their top triumvirate are poisonous. I can envisage a sizeable late return to May as people think to themselves "Do I want to risk Prime Minister Corbyn? Nah....." This poll might perhaps be catching the start of it.

Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?

I'm getting pissed in 10 hours, whatever.

AndyJS said:

brokenwheel said:

One thing about the exit poll, they don't seem to take into account postal voting. Could this be a key source of error in a year that the age split seems greater than ever?

I thought they did somehow take it into account but not sure.

Not according to this:

http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/

Mr. Mark, that's plausible. Also plausible we have a Hung Parliament.

MarqueeMark said:

The mood music since QT has been poor for Labour. Not brilliant for May either, especially on police numbers, but the scrutiny of Labour on security matters and the past comments of their top triumvirate are poisonous. I can envisage a sizeable late return to May as people think to themselves "Do I want to risk Prime Minister Corbyn? Nah....." This poll might perhaps be catching the start of it.

Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?

I'm sure it won't. Corbyn's a loony leftie and Britain won't vote for him.

People who have bought into the 'terrible campaign' meme for May could well be shrinking back into their caves. I don't think the Tory vote share will have changed much from start to finish. Labour's will have gone up a little from the 26% but you'd expect that.

Tory majority above 60 is nailed on imho. It's a question of how far they go beyond that.

AndyJS said:

brokenwheel said:

One thing about the exit poll, they don't seem to take into account postal voting. Could this be a key source of error in a year that the age split seems greater than ever?

I thought they did somehow take it into account but not sure.

I'm not a statistician but I assume they demographically sample voters exiting the polling station, at different times of day, asking them to repeat secret ballot a second time, and then extrapolate from what they've modelled is a representative sample?

I presume it gets more accurate as the day progresses, and doesn't change very much after 9pm, except in cities.

Perhaps they also correlate with what data is inside the polling station on turnout rate as well.

Baskerville said:

FPT.
Chameleon said:
» show previous quotes
I personally do, and am about to go and vote. However the fact that theres nothing for us means that people disengage very early on, and it takes a lot for them to re-engage. Like perhaps a party offering to cancel £50,000 of your debt.

'A party' cancelling your debts? Surely you mean 'other people' or 'taxpayers'?

Well, it is up to the party proposing it to decide where to get the money from. May I suggest one good place would be by freezing the state pension .

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mark, that's plausible. Also plausible we have a Hung Parliament.

I think it plausible my plausible is more plausible than your plausible....

MarqueeMark said:

Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?

A plaintive tone entirely absent from PB Torydom a few short weeks ago.

AHMatlock said:

Pong said:

fpt;

Any predictions for Theresas post-election purge?

I can't recall a campaign (other than brexit) where so many on an incumbent PM's own side have made enemies of themselves.

Timothy and Hill will have drawn up their hitlist.

The executions will commence at dawn.

Magnanimity in victory would be preferable, but if there is to be a purge then I would submit Nick Timothy's name for the top of the list.

Having won a mandate in her own right (presuming that is indeed the outcome), this would be an opportunity for the Prime Minister to bind old wounds and get the party back on track for the difficult task of governing and navigating Brexit that lies ahead.

Welcome back, Alistair.
There's a lot of BS written about TM and her inner circle by people who have never met any of them. Mrs May didn't get where she is today without being a pragmatist, and although not a schmoozer in the style of Cameron, she is probably more in touch with the instincts of the party than he was. Ergo, I think a small reshuffle and a concentration on business at hand, with some of the more 'challenging' manifesto commitments shelved for the foreseeable. Inner circles often do not survive contact with the enemy, so I would expect one or both of NT and FH to move into a public affairs role somewhere else and May try to find herself advisers more used to the grapeshot and a politician or two to play the Willie Whitelaw role... Davis could do it, but his day job is rather too important.

Mr. Mark, that's plausible, but it's also plausible my plausible is more plausible than your plausible.

Listening to the podcast (doing it in bits and pieces) and amused (and agree) that May winning may have a worse political life expectancy than Corbyn losing.

Theuniondivvie said:

MarqueeMark said:

Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?

A plaintive tone entirely absent from PB Torydom a few short weeks ago.

You're in for a rough night.

Chameleon said:

Baskerville said:

FPT.
Chameleon said:
» show previous quotes
I personally do, and am about to go and vote. However the fact that theres nothing for us means that people disengage very early on, and it takes a lot for them to re-engage. Like perhaps a party offering to cancel £50,000 of your debt.

'A party' cancelling your debts? Surely you mean 'other people' or 'taxpayers'?

Well, it is up to the party proposing it to decide where to get the money from. May I suggest one good place would be by freezing the state pension .

So, you want your grandparents, and mine, and TSE's and everyone else's to pay?

SimonStClare said:

rottenborough said:

SimonStClare said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

Quote from Harold Wilson in 1970 after he'd reduced the voting age from 21 to 18:

"We gave the youngsters a vote and the buggers didn't use it."

Some things never change. - perhaps they've got too used to parents being chauffeurs.

Isn't Mike reporting an uptick in young voters in Bedford?

Not had time to follow all this mornings comments Mr borough, I may have missed it. – No doubt will get the full breakdown of voters by age group soon enough and see how things translate nationally. I suspect we may see a significant uptick in larger urban areas.

Start wetting the beds:

https://twitter.com/sp2a/status/872767821570338820

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Mark, that's plausible, but it's also plausible my plausible is more plausible than your plausible.

Implausible.

rottenborough said:

SimonStClare said:

rottenborough said:

SimonStClare said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

Quote from Harold Wilson in 1970 after he'd reduced the voting age from 21 to 18:

"We gave the youngsters a vote and the buggers didn't use it."

Some things never change. - perhaps they've got too used to parents being chauffeurs.

Isn't Mike reporting an uptick in young voters in Bedford?

Not had time to follow all this mornings comments Mr borough, I may have missed it. – No doubt will get the full breakdown of voters by age group soon enough and see how things translate nationally. I suspect we may see a significant uptick in larger urban areas.

Start wetting the beds:

twitter.com/sp2a/status/872767821570338820

We loads of the same tweets during brexit vote.

Keep going on wrong thread

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/simonjhix/status/872724388768092160

Only two forecasts have the Lib Dems in double figures. Meanwhile, you can still back them for 3.2 under 10 seats on Betfair.

One more for the list (comes with v clever interactive zoomable map):

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/

Con: 350
Lab: 224
Lib: 8
SNP: 45

Con Maj 50

Hmm. Carshalton a LD hold. 3 Lab gains in the southwest (Bristol East, and both plymouth seats).

Also the people's republic of Brighton to expand to Kemptown (they almost got it last time)

Edit

Bad new for the LDs in Kemptown - wiki says they've already got 0 votes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighton_Kemptown_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

volcanopete said:

The Tory apparatchiks must be flooding into North Norfolk from what I saw this morning to complete stage 2 of the Lib Dem decapitation strategy on Norman Lamb.The Tories are throwing the kitchen sink to guillotine him."Dark" Facebook ads is where the Tories magic money tree is going.Con 1-2 LD 13-8 .Is Norman's very high incumbency factor big enough to counter the purple to blue switchers and is he able to squeaze the Labour vote?

Some on here have said locals were good for LDs and that he might even get plenty of the UKIP vote. A lot of models have him down as 95+% certain to lose, but RCs for one has him holding.



Several of my older relatives enjoy a good racing game - you can get decent gamign wheels and pedals, and rather than the expense of gaming chair (my father's back was not really up for lowering himself into and getting up from the one we used to have)just get a custom wheel stand and do it from the comfort of a regular chair.

Someone just shared an article on Facebook on why they were voting conservative. First comment 'pathetic' second comment, someone replying to the first with clapping emojis.

Third (made by person that posted the first): Maybe one day you'll have a genuine thought of your own XXXX... being influenced by new money shallow individuals is no excuse... don't be mislead! By voting labour your brother and sisters will have a free education and a safer more tolerant society.

Kicker turns out that the first & third commentator is her (the share-rs') Dad...

However in general engagement with this election is noticeably down on the EU ref on my Facebook.

Casino_Royale said:

What are the odds of May winning a healthy majority and then getting '22'ed, in short order, anyway?

Low, but she'll be on notice. A healthy majority (i.e. at least 50) will restore some confidence in her but the campaign has left an indelible mark and the party will expect her to change her habit of paying too little attention to the right people while paying too much to the wrong ones. In this case, the MPs and cabinet would be the 'right people', along with those that those groups trust (e.g. Lynton).

There are two mitigating factors for any MP thinking of No Confidencing her, whatever the majority. Firstly, the public will have just voted for her. To boot her out straight away would look (and would be) undemocratic. Secondly, we've already wasted two months of the EU withdrawal period; to waste another two on a leadership election would be indulgent and viewed poorly by both the public and the EU. If she gets at least what she went in with, both practical considerations outweigh the potential benefits of replacing her.

After all, there'd still be three years to do so after March 2019.

(Just to say, after last night, I'm off out campaigning again now so won't be replying for a while today, if at all - don't worry, nothing will be amiss by my absence).

GIN1138 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Casino_Royale said:

JennyFreeman said:

MarqueeMark said:

The mood music since QT has been poor for Labour. Not brilliant for May either, especially on police numbers, but the scrutiny of Labour on security matters and the past comments of their top triumvirate are poisonous. I can envisage a sizeable late return to May as people think to themselves "Do I want to risk Prime Minister Corbyn? Nah....." This poll might perhaps be catching the start of it.

Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?

I'm sure it won't. Corbyn's a loony leftie and Britain won't vote for him.

People who have bought into the 'terrible campaign' meme for May could well be shrinking back into their caves. I don't think the Tory vote share will have changed much from start to finish. Labour's will have gone up a little from the 26% but you'd expect that.

Tory majority above 60 is nailed on imho. It's a question of how far they go beyond that.

Who knows. My bedwetting will probably start about 8.30-9pm tonight when people like Nick Robinson start ramping the exit poll, once more, on Twitter.

I doubt he will say, "Exit poll due shortly, but won't have you falling off your chair."

I thought nobody was allowed to mention the exit poll (even in hints) until 10pm?

I assume the betting markets and currency may show movement if leaks start to come out of the exit poll

Well according to the reports of the 2015 election literally nobody other than Curtice and one or two others knew the results of the exit poll until they were revealed at 10pm (including the PM and Ed Miliband)

Dimbleby said the other day that he was taken in to a room at 9 45 and told the exit poll result but then guarded for remaining 15 minutes in case he put a bet on

MikeSmithson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Casino_Royale said:

JennyFreeman said:

MarqueeMark said:

The mood music since QT has been poor for Labour. Not brilliant for May either, especially on police numbers, but the scrutiny of Labour on security matters and the past comments of their top triumvirate are poisonous. I can envisage a sizeable late return to May as people think to themselves "Do I want to risk Prime Minister Corbyn? Nah....." This poll might perhaps be catching the start of it.

Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?

I'm sure it won't. Corbyn's a loony leftie and Britain won't vote for him.

People who have bought into the 'terrible campaign' meme for May could well be shrinking back into their caves. I don't think the Tory vote share will have changed much from start to finish. Labour's will have gone up a little from the 26% but you'd expect that.

Tory majority above 60 is nailed on imho. It's a question of how far they go beyond that.

Who knows. My bedwetting will probably start about 8.30-9pm tonight when people like Nick Robinson start ramping the exit poll, once more, on Twitter.

I doubt he will say, "Exit poll due shortly, but won't have you falling off your chair."

I thought nobody was allowed to mention the exit poll (even in hints) until 10pm?

I assume the betting markets and currency may show movement if leaks start to come out of the exit poll

As far as I recall there have never been exit poll leaks. At GE2010 I was the 5Live studio "expert" and got sight of it at about 9.30p in the most strict of circumstances.

If you see leaks on social media I'd suggest that they are not based on anything

Apart from perhaps the ability to see how many postal votes are coming from which areas, I tend to regard all those leaks we get about postal voting indicating whose campaign as going well or badly in the same light.

MikeSmithson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Casino_Royale said:

JennyFreeman said:

MarqueeMark said:

The mood music since QT has been poor for Labour. Not brilliant for May either, especially on police numbers, but the scrutiny of Labour on security matters and the past comments of their top triumvirate are poisonous. I can envisage a sizeable late return to May as people think to themselves "Do I want to risk Prime Minister Corbyn? Nah....." This poll might perhaps be catching the start of it.

Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?

I'm sure it won't. Corbyn's a loony leftie and Britain won't vote for him.

People who have bought into the 'terrible campaign' meme for May could well be shrinking back into their caves. I don't think the Tory vote share will have changed much from start to finish. Labour's will have gone up a little from the 26% but you'd expect that.

Tory majority above 60 is nailed on imho. It's a question of how far they go beyond that.

Who knows. My bedwetting will probably start about 8.30-9pm tonight when people like Nick Robinson start ramping the exit poll, once more, on Twitter.

I doubt he will say, "Exit poll due shortly, but won't have you falling off your chair."

I thought nobody was allowed to mention the exit poll (even in hints) until 10pm?

I assume the betting markets and currency may show movement if leaks start to come out of the exit poll

As far as I recall there have never been exit poll leaks. At GE2010 I was the 5Live studio "expert" and got sight of it at about 9.30p in the most strict of circumstances.

If you see leaks on social media I'd suggest that they are not based on anything

Are you going to be on telly/radio tonight Mike?

Chameleon said:

Casino_Royale said:

What are the odds of May winning a healthy majority and then getting '22'ed, in short order, anyway?

Very, very low imo. They won't remove a leader that has just been elected with an increased majority.

That's true enough, but I suspect that Theresa May herself will be only too well aware that she has failed and has had a very poor GE campaign. In such circumstances she will feel totally demoralised, who wouldn't, and coupled with what is actually quite a serious illness, I very much expect her to resign within the next 12-18 months, possibly earlier.

david_herdson said:

Casino_Royale said:

What are the odds of May winning a healthy majority and then getting '22'ed, in short order, anyway?

Low, but she'll be on notice. A healthy majority (i.e. at least 50) will restore some confidence in her but the campaign has left an indelible mark and the party will expect her to change her habit of paying too little attention to the right people while paying too much to the wrong ones. In this case, the MPs and cabinet would be the 'right people', along with those that those groups trust (e.g. Lynton).

There are two mitigating factors for any MP thinking of No Confidencing her, whatever the majority. Firstly, the public will have just voted for her. To boot her out straight away would look (and would be) undemocratic. Secondly, we've already wasted two months of the EU withdrawal period; to waste another two on a leadership election would be indulgent and viewed poorly by both the public and the EU. If she gets at least what she went in with, both practical considerations outweigh the potential benefits of replacing her.

After all, there'd still be three years to do so after March 2019.

(Just to say, after last night, I'm off out campaigning again now so won't be replying for a while today, if at all - don't worry, nothing will be amiss by my absence).

Thanks.

Who was the betting company who in 2015 did a video calling the GE as a Tory win even before the exit poll?

MikeSmithson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Casino_Royale said:

JennyFreeman said:

MarqueeMark said:

The mood music since QT has been poor for Labour. Not brilliant for May either, especially on police numbers, but the scrutiny of Labour on security matters and the past comments of their top triumvirate are poisonous. I can envisage a sizeable late return to May as people think to themselves "Do I want to risk Prime Minister Corbyn? Nah....." This poll might perhaps be catching the start of it.

Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?

I'm sure it won't. Corbyn's a loony leftie and Britain won't vote for him.

People who have bought into the 'terrible campaign' meme for May could well be shrinking back into their caves. I don't think the Tory vote share will have changed much from start to finish. Labour's will have gone up a little from the 26% but you'd expect that.

Tory majority above 60 is nailed on imho. It's a question of how far they go beyond that.

Who knows. My bedwetting will probably start about 8.30-9pm tonight when people like Nick Robinson start ramping the exit poll, once more, on Twitter.

I doubt he will say, "Exit poll due shortly, but won't have you falling off your chair."

I thought nobody was allowed to mention the exit poll (even in hints) until 10pm?

I assume the betting markets and currency may show movement if leaks start to come out of the exit poll

As far as I recall there have never been exit poll leaks. At GE2010 I was the 5Live studio "expert" and got sight of it at about 9.30p in the most strict of circumstances.

If you see leaks on social media I'd suggest that they are not based on anything

I agree but if there is a late leak someone will use it.

I am concerned that the anecdotal evidence shows the youth vote coming out and at present I would be pleased to avoid NOM

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MikeSmithson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Casino_Royale said:

JennyFreeman said:

MarqueeMark said:

The mood music since QT has been poor for Labour. Not brilliant for May either, especially on police numbers, but the scrutiny of Labour on security matters and the past comments of their top triumvirate are poisonous. I can envisage a sizeable late return to May as people think to themselves "Do I want to risk Prime Minister Corbyn? Nah....." This poll might perhaps be catching the start of it.

Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?

I'm sure it won't. Corbyn's a loony leftie and Britain won't vote for him.

People who have bought into the 'terrible campaign' meme for May could well be shrinking back into their caves. I don't think the Tory vote share will have changed much from start to finish. Labour's will have gone up a little from the 26% but you'd expect that.

Tory majority above 60 is nailed on imho. It's a question of how far they go beyond that.

Who knows. My bedwetting will probably start about 8.30-9pm tonight when people like Nick Robinson start ramping the exit poll, once more, on Twitter.

I doubt he will say, "Exit poll due shortly, but won't have you falling off your chair."

I thought nobody was allowed to mention the exit poll (even in hints) until 10pm?

I assume the betting markets and currency may show movement if leaks start to come out of the exit poll

As far as I recall there have never been exit poll leaks. At GE2010 I was the 5Live studio "expert" and got sight of it at about 9.30p in the most strict of circumstances.

If you see leaks on social media I'd suggest that they are not based on anything

I agree but if there is a late leak someone will use it.

I am concerned that the anecdotal evidence shows the youth vote coming out and at present I would be pleased to avoid NOM

Are you having a wobble Big G?

Bloody Hell, Alastair Matlock is back! As if my nerves weren't already shredded by last night's Reverse Herdson. Welcome back, Alastair!

Nemtynakht said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

As I noted in the podcast last night

https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/872758791657410560

Wouldn't you expect it to fall in line with voting intentions though as people consider what is in front of them and who the will vote for?

Seems almost exactly what has happened. Partisanship is back, bigly.

May will be given one more go to cross the divide.

Ishmael_Z said:

peter_from_putney said:

Chameleon said:

Casino_Royale said:

What are the odds of May winning a healthy majority and then getting '22'ed, in short order, anyway?

Very, very low imo. They won't remove a leader that has just been elected with an increased majority.

That's true enough, but I suspect that Theresa May herself will be only too well aware that she has failed and has had a very poor GE campaign. In such circumstances she will feel totally demoralised, who wouldn't, and coupled with what is actually quite a serious illness, I very much expect her to resign within the next 12-18 months, possibly earlier.

I can see no way she could step down till brexit is done and dusted. Diabetes is a seriously manageable condition.

People with well-managed chronic illnesses often have remarkably good general health. I write from experience.

I have sympathy with the abstainers on here. What a piss poor election this has been all round

But I would suggest that we the mighty electorate are in no small way responsible for that sorry state of affairs ourselves (present company excepted of course)

We want low taxes (for us personally at least - they can be higher for other people...) and better public services
We want a growing economy but we don't like immigration
We want pay rises for public servants but also money for more operations and bobbies on the beat
We want honest politicians but popularity is achieved by those who are frankly anything but
We want well paid jobs and successful companies but think business is a great source of endless tax
We want the NHS to be world class, free, there all the time, but eat shit, drink too much and do no exercise

We just want government to make it all better for us

We basically want the circle to be square, and woe betide anyone who tries to have a grown up debate about the deep shit we are already in and how much deeper it will inevitably get.

I think we get what we deserve :-/

The one endorsement that all the political parties have been desperate for.

https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/872781024400474113

Baskerville said:

AHMatlock said:

Pong said:

fpt;

Any predictions for Theresas post-election purge?

I can't recall a campaign (other than brexit) where so many on an incumbent PM's own side have made enemies of themselves.

Timothy and Hill will have drawn up their hitlist.

The executions will commence at dawn.

Magnanimity in victory would be preferable, but if there is to be a purge then I would submit Nick Timothy's name for the top of the list.

Having won a mandate in her own right (presuming that is indeed the outcome), this would be an opportunity for the Prime Minister to bind old wounds and get the party back on track for the difficult task of governing and navigating Brexit that lies ahead.

Welcome back, Alistair.
There's a lot of BS written about TM and her inner circle by people who have never met any of them. Mrs May didn't get where she is today without being a pragmatist, and although not a schmoozer in the style of Cameron, she is probably more in touch with the instincts of the party than he was. Ergo, I think a small reshuffle and a concentration on business at hand, with some of the more 'challenging' manifesto commitments shelved for the foreseeable. Inner circles often do not survive contact with the enemy, so I would expect one or both of NT and FH to move into a public affairs role somewhere else and May try to find herself advisers more used to the grapeshot and a politician or two to play the Willie Whitelaw role... Davis could do it, but his day job is rather too important.

Thank you, sir. Yes, that is probably true. The social care manifesto wasn't wholly without merit, but it does seem to have been very poorly thought through particularly in terms of its political implications being put in the manifesto for release in the midst of a campaign. Either the political sensitivities were not given sufficient consideration or somebody felt that the electorate, faced with a LOTO thought to be unelectable, would swallow them anyway. I suppose I just don't cope with shocks and surprises now in my dotage as I did when I was young and spry!

Certainly agree with what you say about Mrs May's characteristics as a tough politician and a pragmatist - she was, after all, the longest serving Home Secretary in my memory. I think a Willie figure would be useful to her. Perhaps Fallon would be a good fit for that sort of job?

Mr. Rex, hope it isn't too bad.