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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final poll, Ipsos MORI, has CON lead up 3 to 8% + latest b

Headline voting intentions from our final #GE2017 poll for @standardnews https://t.co/fgzdOQg4bZ #infographic #dataviz pic.twitter.com/5b9bhzjHde
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https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/872758791657410560
Any predictions for Theresas post-election purge?
I can't recall a campaign (other than brexit) where so many on an incumbent PM's own side have made enemies of themselves.
Timothy and Hill will have drawn up their hitlist.
The executions will commence at dawn.
What I will be interested to know is for example how many students are registered at uni and now gone home.
Quote from Harold Wilson in 1970 after he'd reduced the voting age from 21 to 18:
"We gave the youngsters a vote and the buggers didn't use it."
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/872766293081980928
Magnanimity in victory would be preferable, but if there is to be a purge then I would submit Nick Timothy's name for the top of the list.
Having won a mandate in her own right (presuming that is indeed the outcome), this would be an opportunity for the Prime Minister to bind old wounds and get the party back on track for the difficult task of governing and navigating Brexit that lies ahead.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131146542
Anyone know what was the avreage of the best PM lead of the polls on polling day 2015?
The only thing about the youth vote compared to 2010 and 2015 is that term is out at Uni so the key effects will be where they live and work after Uni. Seats like Birmingham edgbaston may be safer for Labour than you would at first expect.
Maybe he didn't realise it was a private school?
I honestly can't believe McDonnell hasn't been buried this GE in the way abbot has. The number of lies he has told are incredible.
It seems to me there's a lot of talent on the backbenches that needs to be brought in.
Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?
Part of West Ham CLP decamped to Ilford North
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/firth/exit-poll-explainer/
People who have bought into the 'terrible campaign' meme for May could well be shrinking back into their caves. I don't think the Tory vote share will have changed much from start to finish. Labour's will have gone up a little from the 26% but you'd expect that.
Tory majority above 60 is nailed on imho. It's a question of how far they go beyond that.
Chameleon said:
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I personally do, and am about to go and vote. However the fact that theres nothing for us means that people disengage very early on, and it takes a lot for them to re-engage. Like perhaps a party offering to cancel £50,000 of your debt.
'A party' cancelling your debts? Surely you mean 'other people' or 'taxpayers'?
I presume it gets more accurate as the day progresses, and doesn't change very much after 9pm, except in cities.
Perhaps they also correlate with what data is inside the polling station on turnout rate as well.
I doubt he will say, "Exit poll due shortly, but won't have you falling off your chair."
Wet and windy, no queues, no tellers, no dogs at the polling station
New ballot boxes, allegedly in anticipation of high turnout, which was described as "pretty good"
There's a lot of BS written about TM and her inner circle by people who have never met any of them. Mrs May didn't get where she is today without being a pragmatist, and although not a schmoozer in the style of Cameron, she is probably more in touch with the instincts of the party than he was. Ergo, I think a small reshuffle and a concentration on business at hand, with some of the more 'challenging' manifesto commitments shelved for the foreseeable. Inner circles often do not survive contact with the enemy, so I would expect one or both of NT and FH to move into a public affairs role somewhere else and May try to find herself advisers more used to the grapeshot and a politician or two to play the Willie Whitelaw role... Davis could do it, but his day job is rather too important.
My take away from that is the tory brain trust have been seeing steady numbers throughout / even with a corbgasm it is nowhere near big enough.
Now if hey are right is another matter.
Listening to the podcast (doing it in bits and pieces) and amused (and agree) that May winning may have a worse political life expectancy than Corbyn losing.
https://twitter.com/sp2a/status/872767821570338820
Also the people's republic of Brighton to expand to Kemptown (they almost got it last time)
Edit
Bad new for the LDs in Kemptown - wiki says they've already got 0 votes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighton_Kemptown_(UK_Parliament_constituency) Some on here have said locals were good for LDs and that he might even get plenty of the UKIP vote. A lot of models have him down as 95+% certain to lose, but RCs for one has him holding.
Several of my older relatives enjoy a good racing game - you can get decent gamign wheels and pedals, and rather than the expense of gaming chair (my father's back was not really up for lowering himself into and getting up from the one we used to have)just get a custom wheel stand and do it from the comfort of a regular chair.
Third (made by person that posted the first): Maybe one day you'll have a genuine thought of your own XXXX... being influenced by new money shallow individuals is no excuse... don't be mislead! By voting labour your brother and sisters will have a free education and a safer more tolerant society.
Kicker turns out that the first & third commentator is her (the share-rs') Dad...
If you see leaks on social media I'd suggest that they are not based on anything
There are two mitigating factors for any MP thinking of No Confidencing her, whatever the majority. Firstly, the public will have just voted for her. To boot her out straight away would look (and would be) undemocratic. Secondly, we've already wasted two months of the EU withdrawal period; to waste another two on a leadership election would be indulgent and viewed poorly by both the public and the EU. If she gets at least what she went in with, both practical considerations outweigh the potential benefits of replacing her.
After all, there'd still be three years to do so after March 2019.
(Just to say, after last night, I'm off out campaigning again now so won't be replying for a while today, if at all - don't worry, nothing will be amiss by my absence).
Dimbleby said the other day that he was taken in to a room at 9 45 and told the exit poll result but then guarded for remaining 15 minutes in case he put a bet on
Labour are going to get beasted.
I am concerned that the anecdotal evidence shows the youth vote coming out and at present I would be pleased to avoid NOM
May will be given one more go to cross the divide.
Edit - And Clegg losing by 136!
Liverpool Walton expected to be 80+% Lab - a real squeaker.
But I would suggest that we the mighty electorate are in no small way responsible for that sorry state of affairs ourselves (present company excepted of course)
We want low taxes (for us personally at least - they can be higher for other people...) and better public services
We want a growing economy but we don't like immigration
We want pay rises for public servants but also money for more operations and bobbies on the beat
We want honest politicians but popularity is achieved by those who are frankly anything but
We want well paid jobs and successful companies but think business is a great source of endless tax
We want the NHS to be world class, free, there all the time, but eat shit, drink too much and do no exercise
We just want government to make it all better for us
We basically want the circle to be square, and woe betide anyone who tries to have a grown up debate about the deep shit we are already in and how much deeper it will inevitably get.
I think we get what we deserve :-/
My hunch - the dogs that don't spend all day yapping will bite.
https://twitter.com/Otto_English/status/872781024400474113
Certainly agree with what you say about Mrs May's characteristics as a tough politician and a pragmatist - she was, after all, the longest serving Home Secretary in my memory. I think a Willie figure would be useful to her. Perhaps Fallon would be a good fit for that sort of job?