politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017
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Take no prisoners on front page of Mail: "May warns Corbyn will tax your work, your garden, your home and your inheritance"
One of the wonders of this weird campaign is why Tories haven't spent the last three weeks banging on this message?0 -
It's interesting as more talked about it at mine than last time. I think maybe because people felt the outcome predictable so it was safe to talk about,currystar said:
That is so right, to me its like an election has not really been taking place, if I didn't spend time on this website then I would not be thinking about it. At work no one has talked about it.JennyFreeman said:
It's because for most people this is the dullest election in living memory. No-one sensible wants Corbyn to win.NickPalmer said:By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?
The Tories will win a landslide on a low turnout.0 -
Miss A
You still didn't grasp what I was driving at last night. Everything you mentioned *should* be ameliorated by weighting. That's what weighting is for!0 -
LibDem fightback doomed there then.....Floater said:Colchester 9am - polling station very busy with lots of nhs staff. One heard saying only labour will help nhs
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Computers have not sped up counting elsewhere. Utterly against counting tech. The system needs to be transparent and understandable to all. Until people understand SSL and encryption let's stick with paper.kle4 said:What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?
To increase voting I would make polling day a bank holiday and look at Aussie style fines for no shows. Turn up and spoil it, but turn up.0 -
No need to ditch the current system if people insist on still using a pencil and paper. But voting should be as easy as possible, and far harder things can now be done from a smartphone than votingkle4 said:What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?
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They are hard in Cornwall and Devon.tlg86 said:
The weather on 23 June last year was awful. Didn't stop 72% voting.rottenborough said:
I see weather not too good in West of country. Might depress the vote there?NickPalmer said:By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?
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Only odd if you've not been paying attention. This vote-swapping lark's been going on for several general elections.freetochoose said:
OK I think I'm there, I assumed (wrongly) he was voting lib in Bedford.kle4 said:
I'll leave to him to explain if he cares to, as I might be wrong, but I believe he is a lib in Bedford voting lab, as part of a gentlemans agreement that his lab friend in twickenham votes lib.freetochoose said:
Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libskle4 said:
He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.freetochoose said:
But how does he get two votes?kle4 said:
Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.freetochoose said:
What's a vote-swap vote?MikeSmithson said:My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
Each gets a better chance of their party winning a seat that way.
Still very odd0 -
Did they vote in 2015?OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!0 -
Slow and quiet in my polling station in a safe-as-houses middle class Tory seat in the London suburbs.0
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Paging @AlastairMeeks, can we have your views on this
Labour's Emily Thornberry: 'I've been a gay icon'
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labours-emily-thornberry-ive-been-a-gay-icon-a3559191.html0 -
Just so you know....Every week, Vanilla poll its users, asking "Who would you like us to block this week?" For some reason, your name keeps coming top of the poll.....Bobajob_PB said:TheScreamingEagles said:I like my new profile picture.
I can't change mine. I'm stuck with this horrible yellow and green thing. Before you ask, yes, I have changed my username again – this is because bobajobPB has been unable to post since the weekend, for no good reason at all. Vanilla is just weird.0 -
True, but again I think where your vote counted for more at the EU ref people will have made the extra effort. In a region where only around 5-10 seats will change hands at best I'm not sure all the same people will go the extra mile.tlg86 said:
The weather on 23 June last year was awful. Didn't stop 72% voting.rottenborough said:
I see weather not too good in West of country. Might depress the vote there?NickPalmer said:By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?
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How many spoilt ballots though?Bobajob_PB said:JackW said:Early voting is complete at Auchentennach Central & West Claymore
Mrs MacBonkers from the post office cast her ballot at 6:59am and the Returning Officer is about to read the result :
"I JackW being the returning Officer for Auchentennach Central and West Claymore do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate at the parliamentary election held on the 8th June is as follows :
Jeremy Seamus Corbyn - Labour and Sinn Fein Alliance - No Votes
Timothy Messiah Farron - Liberal Democrat God Botherer Party - Minus one vote (died in custody)
Theresa Wobble Bottom May - Conservative and Unionist Bed Wetters - No Votes
Mrs JackW - Scottish Jacobite & Footwear Spenders Union - 47,894,201
I do hereby declare that Mrs JackW is hereby elected to the Bond Street Frequent Shoppers Parliament.
A handsome victory for Mrs W, Jack, against all the odds. Congratulations to her. I had the Liberals as favourites in the seat, which shows what I know.JackW said:Early voting is complete at Auchentennach Central & West Claymore
Mrs MacBonkers from the post office cast her ballot at 6:59am and the Returning Officer is about to read the result :
"I JackW being the returning Officer for Auchentennach Central and West Claymore do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate at the parliamentary election held on the 8th June is as follows :
Jeremy Seamus Corbyn - Labour and Sinn Fein Alliance - No Votes
Timothy Messiah Farron - Liberal Democrat God Botherer Party - Minus one vote (died in custody)
Theresa Wobble Bottom May - Conservative and Unionist Bed Wetters - No Votes
Mrs JackW - Scottish Jacobite & Footwear Spenders Union - 47,894,201
I do hereby declare that Mrs JackW is hereby elected to the Bond Street Frequent Shoppers Parliament.0 -
Off topic: I've just finished reading David Peace's GB84. Whatever your views of the rights and wrongs of the miners' strike, I would recommend it. I'll say no more - I'm not intending to reopen that can of worms this morning.0
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Online voting serves one very useful purpose: it increases the profits of the charlatan firms that sell online voting systems.kle4 said:What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?
Although a distinction needs to be made between electronic voting and online voting: it's possible to have electronic machines in a polling booth that automatically collates votes and sends them - I think some arts of India uses this.
This is bad, and can potentially be hacked/gamed, but is nowhere near as bad as online voting.0 -
I'm conflicted on compulsory voting, but with you on the rest - I was just trying to see what the advantages could be, and why that is better. Not seeing it.Jonathan said:
Computers have not sped up counting elsewhere. Utterly against counting tech. The system needs to be transparent and understandable to all. Until people understand SSL and encryption let's stick with paper.kle4 said:What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?
To increase voting I would make polling day a bank holiday and look at Aussie style fines for no shows. Turn up and spoil it, but turn up.
The other argument is more young peoplecwill vote, but screw that - young people voted in the indy ref, they used to vote at much higher levels than now decades ago, and they might even turn out quite a bit today. They don't need making it easier to vote, they need to want to.0 -
Not voted yet but asked polling staff how it was going "A few".
One ~ 60 yr old couple in a white van who had just voted spotted in the polling station. Old Labour leave (Killamarsh) polling station.0 -
I stand corrected on St Ives, apparently they are counting the Scillies votes on the scillies and telephoning the figures in to the St Ives count - it sounds like a recipe for dispute if you ask me, but thats why it should be normal declaration time, not sure how the scruting works if it is tight on the night.0
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Has it ever made any discernible difference?Dadge said:
Only odd if you've not been paying attention. This vote-swapping lark's been going on for several general elections.freetochoose said:
OK I think I'm there, I assumed (wrongly) he was voting lib in Bedford.kle4 said:
I'll leave to him to explain if he cares to, as I might be wrong, but I believe he is a lib in Bedford voting lab, as part of a gentlemans agreement that his lab friend in twickenham votes lib.freetochoose said:
Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libskle4 said:
He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.freetochoose said:
But how does he get two votes?kle4 said:
Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.freetochoose said:
What's a vote-swap vote?MikeSmithson said:My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
Each gets a better chance of their party winning a seat that way.
Still very odd0 -
Which sense of "gay" are we using here?TheScreamingEagles said:Paging @AlastairMeeks, can we have your views on this
Labour's Emily Thornberry: 'I've been a gay icon'
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labours-emily-thornberry-ive-been-a-gay-icon-a3559191.html0 -
I know granddaughter did; not so sure about grandson and his other half, but think so.Alice_Aforethought said:
Did they vote in 2015?OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!0 -
Of course she could've mentioned the fact that she's been a key member of a government that's allowed people to suffer and die so that certain individuals and big firms don't have to pay a reasonable amout of tax.Ishmael_Z said:
If you think running around in standing wheat is a trivial offence, go and do it under the eye of the farmer whose wheat it is. It's equivalent to going into a shop with a hammer and a knife and destroying all the stock.GeoffM said:
That's the bear-trap inherent in the question. It's far too difficult to do anything these days without falling foul of some law or another. And then she'd be hung out to dry for a 'funny anecdote'.Charles said:
Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?Freggles said:
YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat isThe_Apocalypse said:I'm just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/872017947585380352
I recall reading a (probably made up) statistic that we all break on average 6 laws per day unintentionally.
On a personal note I will confess to being part of a group of very drunk YCs a few decades ago trying to make crop circles in a random field in the Meon Valley.0 -
A despicable attempt to foist an MP on another constituency that they haven't voted forfreetochoose said:
What's a vote-swap vote?MikeSmithson said:My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
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The PA usually do their research on these things. Note that St Ives declared by 2:30am in 1987 and 1992, using helicopters to get the votes from the Scilly Islands to the mainland.swing_voter said:
No chance, with ballot boxes scattered across the Scillies to gather in and then the trip to Penzance (by boat probably), on a typically wet blustery day I cannot see the ballots even being on the mainland before 7am, not before 1300 my prediction,AndyJS said:
According to the PA list, St Ives is due to declare at 7am, so not a Friday afternoon count.swing_voter said:
St Ives will be an interesting Fri afternoon count, so a nail biter for those on a LD spread. Andrew George the LD (has been standing since '92, MP 97-15) has cracking recognition and was a shock loss in '15 so a close battle almost guaranteed, apparently he did not sound too confident though the other day. Big Green/Lab/UKIP vote to squeeze - it will not declare till mid afternoon as the ballots from scillies take time, they do things slowly down there, a Lab surge will kill his campaign.
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2017_by_name.php0 -
An interesting use of the word "fact" there.Dadge said:
Of course she could've mentioned the fact that she's been a key member of a government that's allowed people to suffer and die so that certain individuals and big firms don't have to pay a reasonable amout of tax.Ishmael_Z said:
If you think running around in standing wheat is a trivial offence, go and do it under the eye of the farmer whose wheat it is. It's equivalent to going into a shop with a hammer and a knife and destroying all the stock.GeoffM said:
That's the bear-trap inherent in the question. It's far too difficult to do anything these days without falling foul of some law or another. And then she'd be hung out to dry for a 'funny anecdote'.Charles said:
Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?Freggles said:
YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat isThe_Apocalypse said:I'm just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/872017947585380352
I recall reading a (probably made up) statistic that we all break on average 6 laws per day unintentionally.
On a personal note I will confess to being part of a group of very drunk YCs a few decades ago trying to make crop circles in a random field in the Meon Valley.0 -
My partner saw that last night and found it hysterically funny. Not in our household!Alice_Aforethought said:
Did they vote in 2015?OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!0 -
or as the guardian said, allowed the sale of munitions and bombs to be launched at Yemeni civilians.0
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I voted LD at a few minutes past seven this morning. Despite Heidi Allen's obvious attractions.
The reason? Mainly the stupid bit in the Conservative manifesto about having ID at polling stations. They should at least have performed the trials they had committed to ...0 -
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Tezza arrives to vote0
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If the Nats get sub 40, she's gone.dyedwoolie said:Sturgeon has voted. SNP landslide!
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And yet it is not hard at all to vote now, its already easy.not_on_fire said:
No need to ditch the current system if people insist on still using a pencil and paper. But voting should be as easy as possible, and far harder things can now be done from a smartphone than votingkle4 said:What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?0 -
Can she go from 2nd largest Tory majority to largest?dyedwoolie said:Tezza arrives to vote
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Go on then
1997: OxWAb - the losing Harris IIRC, Dr Death Evan Harris won
2001: NE Herts Oliver Heald
2005: NE Herts OH again
2010,15,17: Hertford and Stortford Mark Prisk
Only 1997 have I ever lived in anything remotely close to a contested seat although the 2001 majority was 3,500 (now >20K)0 -
Wheatgate?logical_song said:
It's the cover up that gets you.Charles said:
Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?Freggles said:
YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat isThe_Apocalypse said:I'm just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/8720179475853803520 -
I used to be in favour of online voting but now I'm against it because I wouldn't trust even the more secure system not to be vulnerable to hackers. Hackers are always one step ahead of everyone else.kle4 said:
And yet it is not hard at all to vote now, its already easy.not_on_fire said:
No need to ditch the current system if people insist on still using a pencil and paper. But voting should be as easy as possible, and far harder things can now be done from a smartphone than votingkle4 said:What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?0 -
@Bobajob_PB
Indeed so a surprise GAIN for Mrs JackW. The LibDems put up a decent show but fell dead on their feet in the end which is good news for Auchentennach Fine Pies.
I had the seat as too close to call but a last minute surge to Mrs JackW following her champagne cocktail party for the electorate seemed to have edge the seat away from the opposition.
The final push of STRONG and STABLE shoe heels, ENOUGH is ENOUGH of sandals and £500 footwear for the MANY and NOT THE FEW pushed her over the line.
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Or the guy dressed as a muppet might win?!kle4 said:
Can she go from 2nd largest Tory majority to largest?dyedwoolie said:Tezza arrives to vote
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The image on the front of that video looks like it's going to lead into this:The_Apocalypse said:I'm just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/872017947585380352
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Rubbish! The Tories would break the transfer record to get someone like her.MonikerDiCanio said:
If the Nats get sub 40, she's gone.dyedwoolie said:Sturgeon has voted. SNP landslide!
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Erm. Right.TheScreamingEagles said:Paging @AlastairMeeks, can we have your views on this
Labour's Emily Thornberry: 'I've been a gay icon'
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labours-emily-thornberry-ive-been-a-gay-icon-a3559191.html
I've just done my civic duty. The polling station in Islington South & Finsbury was several grades beyond brisk and somewhere near packed, though this was very much a pre-work crowd and none looked like first time voters of any vintage.
I surprised myself in the polling booth with just how clear I was in my decision. I thought I was going to struggle much more to make my mind up than I did.0 -
If she doesn't she will secure her footnote in history. A pub quiz question for years to come.kle4 said:
Can she go from 2nd largest Tory majority to largest?dyedwoolie said:Tezza arrives to vote
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Big queue outside Cobham polling station at 07:00. The Tory shires will vote in large numbers.Bobajob_PB said:Slow and quiet in my polling station in a safe-as-houses middle class Tory seat in the London suburbs.
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Morning all.
Another email from OxWAb Tories asking for help with GOTV.
Mrs Fleet (Presiding officer) reports a steady stream of voters, largely of an aged persuasion. Note, we're in Wantage, which can and in the past has elected a donkey in a blue rosette, so not likely to be a hotbed of Corbynistas.0 -
Mr. Jonathan, dead against fines. Democracy means freedom to choose, including the choice to not bother. I don't approve of or like that, but it's a legitimate choice.
Agree entirely on keeping electronic bullshit out of the voting system. It's not secure enough and the existing system works perfectly well. The people most in favour of it appear most ignorant of tech basics (even more so than me).0 -
....and?AlastairMeeks said:
Erm. Right.TheScreamingEagles said:Paging @AlastairMeeks, can we have your views on this
Labour's Emily Thornberry: 'I've been a gay icon'
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labours-emily-thornberry-ive-been-a-gay-icon-a3559191.html
I've just done my civic duty. The polling station in Islington South & Finsbury was several grades beyond brisk and somewhere near packed, though this was very much a pre-work crowd and none looked like first time voters of any vintage.
I surprised myself in the polling booth with just how clear I was in my decision. I thought I was going to struggle much more to make my mind up than I did.
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Including voting fraud.not_on_fire said:
No need to ditch the current system if people insist on still using a pencil and paper. But voting should be as easy as possible, and far harder things can now be done from a smartphone than votingkle4 said:What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?0 -
Loving the anecdote. Brisk versus Steady. Who knows?SandyRentool said:Time for my polling day anecdote.
Voting was definitely 'brisk' in Leeds city centre this morning. Around 10 people queueing at 7:20. Chap at the door said it is always busy - claimed that the queue sometimes reaches as far back as the station, but I think that might have been a bit of an exaggeration.
Anyway, the latte-sipping urbanites of West Yorkshire are heading to the polls.
Meanwhile, by 8:40, voting could be described as 'steady' at the primary school near my work in Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford. One chap arrived in a white van, so a possible vote for The Yorkshire Party?
Amazing scenes at our polling station in M&O. Huge, and I mean huge crowd. Many many parked cars all around. Had to fight past many elderly people to get to the voting area.
Inside. Tumbleweed. Possible the result of there being no Yorkshire Party candidate, a disappointment to all true Yorkshirefolk.
Turns out it's the Flower Club trip to the RHS at Chatsworth. Everyone was sheltering from the rain, waiting for the bus. Looks like they're in for a wet day.0 -
That's a stupid reason.JosiasJessop said:I voted LD at a few minutes past seven this morning. Despite Heidi Allen's obvious attractions.
The reason? Mainly the stupid bit in the Conservative manifesto about having ID at polling stations. They should at least have performed the trials they had committed to ...0 -
From he speech the other evening, I assume she's voting UKIP.dyedwoolie said:Tezza arrives to vote
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He has a further problem in prospect also, does he not, which is that if he gains in vote share but loses seats, he'll have even fewer MPs from whom to choose a shadow cabinet. Strip out the duffers, the time servers, the no-confidencers and those angry at seeing him lose colleagues their seats, and he ends up with Diane Abbott back in post, faute de mieux.Roger said:This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
Hague's problem in 1997 to 2001 was that with only 160 MPs he hadn't enough even to oppose effectively.0 -
I am pretty certain it would bring turnout into line across all age groups - i.e. the young would vote. You can say (if you are happy with the end result which is bad for Lab/good for con) that if they can't be arsed to walk for 5 minutes in the rain they don't deserve a vote, but that's hard to justify - universal suffrage is what it says it is, and laziness is no more a disqualification than is being white working class with no degree (despite the secret view of the Remainers).kle4 said:What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?0 -
Thornberry is a gay icon because she always urges labour to come behind the leader.
Badoom tish0 -
Remember that it's still a bit early for young people to be up yet.Bobajob_PB said:Slow and quiet in my polling station in a safe-as-houses middle class Tory seat in the London suburbs.
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Nevertheless the young Theresa must have something about her to have managed all those concentric circles and other patterns.Ishmael_Z said:
If you think running around in standing wheat is a trivial offence, go and do it under the eye of the farmer whose wheat it is. It's equivalent to going into a shop with a hammer and a knife and destroying all the stock.GeoffM said:
That's the bear-trap inherent in the question. It's far too difficult to do anything these days without falling foul of some law or another. And then she'd be hung out to dry for a 'funny anecdote'.Charles said:
Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?Freggles said:
YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat isThe_Apocalypse said:I'm just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/872017947585380352
I recall reading a (probably made up) statistic that we all break on average 6 laws per day unintentionally.
On a personal note I will confess to being part of a group of very drunk YCs a few decades ago trying to make crop circles in a random field in the Meon Valley.0 -
Maybe worse than May. Awful. The gulf in class between herself and Davidson is cosmic.Roger said:
Rubbish! The Tories would break the transfer record to get someone like her.MonikerDiCanio said:
If the Nats get sub 40, she's gone.dyedwoolie said:Sturgeon has voted. SNP landslide!
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Why? It's important.GeoffM said:
That's a stupid reason.JosiasJessop said:I voted LD at a few minutes past seven this morning. Despite Heidi Allen's obvious attractions.
The reason? Mainly the stupid bit in the Conservative manifesto about having ID at polling stations. They should at least have performed the trials they had committed to ...
And is your reason for voting less stupid? 0 -
My voting history:
1992 - Wantage
1997 - Wantage
2001 - Did not vote, unexpectedly away on business
2005 - Wantage
2010 - Wantage
2015 - Wantage
2017 - Wantage
Exciting, eh?0 -
News is so boring under purdah
Sky wittering on about infants and dentists0 -
Have to say that's the way I read it, whatever happened to ONE MAN ONE VOTE. Though probably legal this is a cynical and immoral practise.Charles said:
A despicable attempt to foist an MP on another constituency that they haven't voted forfreetochoose said:
What's a vote-swap vote?MikeSmithson said:My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
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People can vote for whatever reason they choose, and many of them will be stupid. Convinced by a PEB? Very stupid to be swayed by a 3 minute propaganda video. Convinced by a gaffe from a senior politician? Very stupid as they're not even your MP and what about the overall message. Convinced because 30 years ago they opposed teaching of homosexuality in schools?stupid as maybe they've done a 180 and are now a fearsome equality advocate. Didn't like the candidate's accent, they're not local, didn't work a proper job, stabbed brother in the back, they support a policy you dislike (but really they don't), you misunderstand what's being offered.Charles said:
A despicable attempt to foist an MP on another constituency that they haven't voted forfreetochoose said:
What's a vote-swap vote?MikeSmithson said:My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
Any number of silly reasons peopke choose to vote. Doing so at behest of sone some bloke in Bedford is no different as it is still you Voting in your constituency as you Choose, so still a local voting as they decide.0 -
Turnout looking good. Except at my station. But the two voters looked like leave voters as they git into their white van0
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Citizens have certain obligations like Jury service, the census and paying taxes. Showing up once every five years really is no biggie. Maybe flip it the other way. Active citizens are rewarded.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, dead against fines. Democracy means freedom to choose, including the choice to not bother. I don't approve of or like that, but it's a legitimate choice.
Agree entirely on keeping electronic bullshit out of the voting system. It's not secure enough and the existing system works perfectly well. The people most in favour of it appear most ignorant of tech basics (even more so than me).0 -
Reminiscent of the Adder Party:JackW said:@Bobajob_PB
Indeed so a surprise GAIN for Mrs JackW. The LibDems put up a decent show but fell dead on their feet in the end which is good news for Auchentennach Fine Pies.
I had the seat as too close to call but a last minute surge to Mrs JackW following her champagne cocktail party for the electorate seemed to have edge the seat away from the opposition.
The final push of STRONG and STABLE shoe heels, ENOUGH is ENOUGH of sandals and £500 footwear for the MANY and NOT THE FEW pushed her over the line.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h6mJw50OdZ40 -
In unrelated news, a pigeon has just conducted what my aviation geek friends would euphemistically call a 'forced landing', very violently, on the roof of my conservatory, causing me to empty a mug of tea over my lap. It's definitely tea. Not last minute Tory nerves.0
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It's not even hackers in the sense of changing votes that I'd worry about.AndyJS said:I used to be in favour of online voting but now I'm against it because I wouldn't trust even the more secure system not to be vulnerable to hackers. Hackers are always one step ahead of everyone else.
There's the potential for abuse if votes are collated and people have access to the live counts. Parties would love to know what is happening in real-time. You are potentially putting an awful lot of trust in a very few people.
There's also the issue with things like a DDoS, data centres going offline, network connections being severed, power failures, and routing problems. Simply tons of problems with infrastructure, many of which would be extremely costly to mitigate.
Pencil and paper, manual counting, and thousands of polling stations may seem antiquated, but it is hard to interfere with and we have a very good understanding of the vulnerabilities.
On top of all that pretty much every computer security researcher has serious reservations about electronic voting and online voting. As JosiasJessop says down thread the people who are most in favour are invariably trying to flog something.0 -
It's all just chaff.Charles said:
Wheatgate?logical_song said:
It's the cover up that gets you.Charles said:
Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?Freggles said:
YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat isThe_Apocalypse said:I'm just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/8720179475853803520 -
I'm sure all students learning how to keep golf courses free of weed will have been supplied one of these. (thanks to Labour HQ)Ishmael_Z said:
I am pretty certain it would bring turnout into line across all age groups - i.e. the young would vote. You can say (if you are happy with the end result which is bad for Lab/good for con) that if they can't be arsed to walk for 5 minutes in the rain they don't deserve a vote, but that's hard to justify - universal suffrage is what it says it is, and laziness is no more a disqualification than is being white working class with no degree (despite the secret view of the Remainers).kle4 said:What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?
http://www.labour.org.uk/index.php/pollingstation0 -
If the UKIP vote doesn't turn out for Theresa Brexit for them will not happen - it will be the softest of all BrexitPulpstar said:Turnout looking good. Except at my station. But the two voters looked like leave voters as they git into their white van
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It's a sign.Fleet_of_Worlds said:In unrelated news, a pigeon has just conducted what my aviation geek friends would euphemistically call a 'forced landing', very violently, on the roof of my conservatory, causing me to empty a mug of tea over my lap. It's definitely tea. Not last minute Tory nerves.
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I abstained in person.Patrick said:
....and?AlastairMeeks said:
Erm. Right.TheScreamingEagles said:Paging @AlastairMeeks, can we have your views on this
Labour's Emily Thornberry: 'I've been a gay icon'
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labours-emily-thornberry-ive-been-a-gay-icon-a3559191.html
I've just done my civic duty. The polling station in Islington South & Finsbury was several grades beyond brisk and somewhere near packed, though this was very much a pre-work crowd and none looked like first time voters of any vintage.
I surprised myself in the polling booth with just how clear I was in my decision. I thought I was going to struggle much more to make my mind up than I did.0 -
Universal suffrage is about being eligible and able vote. Since young voters are as a whole more able to move easily than elderly voters who may be on crutches or have other disabilities they are just as able if not more able to vote.Ishmael_Z said:
I am pretty certain it would bring turnout into line across all age groups - i.e. the young would vote. You can say (if you are happy with the end result which is bad for Lab/good for con) that if they can't be arsed to walk for 5 minutes in the rain they don't deserve a vote, but that's hard to justify - universal suffrage is what it says it is, and laziness is no more a disqualification than is being white working class with no degree (despite the secret view of the Remainers).kle4 said:What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?
Laziness is not a disqualification it is a choice.0 -
Wasn't May's campaign a shambles largely because she faced only Corbyn?IanB2 said:Yet his detractors will argue that Labour wouldn't have started so low in the polls without him, will see Labour losing seats in opposition as obvious bad rather than good news, and wonder whether under someone else the arrogant complacent shambles that has been May's campaign might have been beaten?
Against a more effective leader, the poll leads would have been less inviting, the need to come up with a better manifesto and campaign more obvious, the effort in organising the latter hard ti hide, and a snap election harder to call in the first place.
Of course we have yet to see whether May's campaign was a shambles or not. What we are calling a shambles is the inputs. The proof of the pudding is in the outputs. If she wins by 100 seats then by definition it was the other campaigns that were the shambles.0 -
Mr. Jonathan, having those who vote entered into a one-off lottery would be acceptable
Mr. Woolie, no mention at all of Iran accusing Saudi Arabia on the ITV News at Ten last night. Should be a top story until 10pm.0 -
you wouldn't be saying that if labour were in power...Jonathan said:
Think we should try something else . FPTP has been found wanting time and again.Richard_Tyndall said:
Just not as crap as any of the alternatives.Jonathan said:British politics has proved exhaustively that FPTP is crap.
Scotland politics has thrived without it.0 -
Ha, ha - the Tories are about to win a huge majority of seats on a minority of the vote. They are then set to make changes that will mean they win even more seats on the same percentage of the vote. What's more, they are also going to reduce the power of the legislature as they do it. I get the fact that parties like to game the system to their advantage, but it is not good for our democracy.CarlottaVance said:
You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?SouthamObserver said:
And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.CarlottaVance said:Stephen Bush:
Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats
My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.
This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.
It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history
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Around 3 million people will have voted already if turnout is distributed equally across the 15 hours of voting, which it probably isn't. (Ignores postal votes).0
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My point was, was that if the sample is particuarly problematic than weighing isn't going to solve that. GE 2015 demonstrated that in the inquiries as to why polling there went wrong.Bobajob_PB said:Miss A
You still didn't grasp what I was driving at last night. Everything you mentioned *should* be ameliorated by weighting. That's what weighting is for!0 -
I hate the idea of Labour in power but wouldn't mind PR. Only issue is it would make election night rather boring and would probably mean no more Portillo, Balls or Cable moments.SquareRoot said:
you wouldn't be saying that if labour were in power...Jonathan said:
Think we should try something else . FPTP has been found wanting time and again.Richard_Tyndall said:
Just not as crap as any of the alternatives.Jonathan said:British politics has proved exhaustively that FPTP is crap.
Scotland politics has thrived without it.0 -
The end result is immaterial to me. If someone chooses to be lazy that is their choice, we have seen young people can and do turnout when they want to, and they used to, so the method of voting is demonstrably not the problem. It's people not wanting to vote. That's what needs addressing, making young people want to vote. Corbyn may well show that can be addressed.Ishmael_Z said:
I am pretty certain it would bring turnout into line across all age groups - i.e. the young would vote. You can say (if you are happy with the end result which is bad for Lab/good for con) that if they can't be arsed to walk for 5 minutes in the rain they don't deserve a vote, but that's hard to justify - universal suffrage is what it says it is, and laziness is no more a disqualification than is being white working class with no degree (despite the secret view of the Remainers).kle4 said:What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?0 -
I would and did. FPTP seriously damaged Labour by rewarding it with too large majorities that it didn't merit. Labour would have been better with PR. Always favoured PR.SquareRoot said:
you wouldn't be saying that if labour were in power...Jonathan said:
Think we should try something else . FPTP has been found wanting time and again.Richard_Tyndall said:
Just not as crap as any of the alternatives.Jonathan said:British politics has proved exhaustively that FPTP is crap.
Scotland politics has thrived without it.0 -
The intention is quite different: it's basically saying "My voice is more important than anyone else's"kle4 said:
People can vote for whatever reason they choose, and many of them will be stupid. Convinced by a PEB? Very stupid to be swayed by a 3 minute propaganda video. Convinced by a gaffe from a senior politician? Very stupid as they're not even your MP and what about the overall message. Convinced because 30 years ago they opposed teaching of homosexuality in schools?stupid as maybe they've done a 180 and are now a fearsome equality advocate. Didn't like the candidate's accent, they're not local, didn't work a proper job, stabbed brother in the back, they support a policy you dislike (but really they don't), you misunderstand what's being offered.Charles said:
A despicable attempt to foist an MP on another constituency that they haven't voted forfreetochoose said:
What's a vote-swap vote?MikeSmithson said:My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
Any number of silly reasons peopke choose to vote. Doing so at behest of sone some bloke in Bedford is no different as it is still you Voting in your constituency as you Choose, so still a local voting as they decide.
The rules are simple: local people should choose an MP to represent their local area.
In this case a bloke in Bedford wants more LibDem MPs in the national parliament, He thinks that's more important than people in Twickenham getting to select a Tory MP if that's that they want to do (and vice versa for his counterpart). He is prioritizing himself above other citizens.
@freetochoose It's legal, but subverting the very nature of our democracy. If people don't like the rules of the game they should persuade a majority to MPs to change them0 -
voting where I live v v slow .about as slow as usual. I think 12 had voted by 9am.. its a tory stronghold maj 30k ish0
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It is unbelievable the lack of coverage both what is happening in America and the Middle East is not getting.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, having those who vote entered into a one-off lottery would be acceptable
Mr. Woolie, no mention at all of Iran accusing Saudi Arabia on the ITV News at Ten last night. Should be a top story until 10pm.
Bombing of Iranian parliament, Comey testimony, Qatar blockade, Obamacare about to be repealed. It's unbelievable.0 -
He he.....I wonder if a lot of these young Corbynistas understand tactical voting?MarqueeMark said:
LibDem fightback doomed there then.....Floater said:Colchester 9am - polling station very busy with lots of nhs staff. One heard saying only labour will help nhs
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If that is what the good peopke of Maidenhead want, then good for them.dyedwoolie said:
Or the guy dressed as a muppet might win?!kle4 said:
Can she go from 2nd largest Tory majority to largest?dyedwoolie said:Tezza arrives to vote
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Yeah, me too. I applied for a PV some years ago because of holiday and they now assume I want one every year.TheScreamingEagles said:I miss voting at a polling station.
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There's a reason a lot of people don't rely on traditional media for news anymore.Alistair said:
It is unbelievable the lack of coverage both what is happening in America and the Middle East is not getting.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, having those who vote entered into a one-off lottery would be acceptable
Mr. Woolie, no mention at all of Iran accusing Saudi Arabia on the ITV News at Ten last night. Should be a top story until 10pm.
Bombing of Iranian parliament, Comey testimony, Qatar blockade, Obamacare about to be repealed. It's unbelievable.
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So what you're saying is that people outside an area should not try to influence voting there. No buses.Charles said:
The intention is quite different: it's basically saying "My voice is more important than anyone else's"kle4 said:
People can vote for whatever reason they choose, and many of them will be stupid. Convinced by a PEB? Very stupid to be swayed by a 3 minute propaganda video. Convinced by a gaffe from a senior politician? Very stupid as they're not even your MP and what about the overall message. Convinced because 30 years ago they opposed teaching of homosexuality in schools?stupid as maybe they've done a 180 and are now a fearsome equality advocate. Didn't like the candidate's accent, they're not local, didn't work a proper job, stabbed brother in the back, they support a policy you dislike (but really they don't), you misunderstand what's being offered.Charles said:
A despicable attempt to foist an MP on another constituency that they haven't voted forfreetochoose said:
What's a vote-swap vote?MikeSmithson said:My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.
Any number of silly reasons peopke choose to vote. Doing so at behest of sone some bloke in Bedford is no different as it is still you Voting in your constituency as you Choose, so still a local voting as they decide.
The rules are simple: local people should choose an MP to represent their local area.
In this case a bloke in Bedford wants more LibDem MPs in the national parliament, He thinks that's more important than people in Twickenham getting to select a Tory MP if that's that they want to do (and vice versa for his counterpart). He is prioritizing himself above other citizens.
@freetochoose It's legal, but subverting the very nature of our democracy. If people don't like the rules of the game they should persuade a majority to MPs to change them0 -
You can change it when the re-registration form arrives each yeargeoffw said:
Yeah, me too. I applied for a PV some years ago because of holiday and they now assume I want one every year.TheScreamingEagles said:I miss voting at a polling station.
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I've just been to the polling station. Definitely more people there than when I voted at last General Election or Referendum. A couple of youth voters with double that number of over 70s. Most voters in 40s or 50s.
I live in a safe Conservative area.0 -
Also they don't inform you that your postal vote has definitely been processed, do they? You just have to assume that it arrived at its destination and is going to be counted. But it might have got lost in the post and you wouldn't know.geoffw said:
Yeah, me too. I applied for a PV some years ago because of holiday and they now assume I want one every year.TheScreamingEagles said:I miss voting at a polling station.
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I've seen nothing about Diane Abbott's performance that is explained better by her being ill than by her being thick.CarlottaVance said:If she is, then Corbyn should have protected her earlier rather than subjecting an unwell woman to public humiliation. Instead we had Paul Mason questioning Mrs May's health. While Labour repeatedly sent an ill woman into TV studios.
Pluralitas non est ponenda sine necessitate
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Morning all. Polling 'brisk' when I cast my vote this morning.
I hope you're all going to do your democratic duty, and are urging friends and relatives to do so. Remember, every vote counts*!
* (towards my spread bet on turnout)0 -
There's something in that but the campaign also showed up some fundamental problems that are quite hard to organize around: She's inflexible, weak under pressure, tetchy when challenged, not very good with the public. This would look even worse against a viable opponent.Alice_Aforethought said:
Wasn't May's campaign a shambles largely because she faced only Corbyn?IanB2 said:Yet his detractors will argue that Labour wouldn't have started so low in the polls without him, will see Labour losing seats in opposition as obvious bad rather than good news, and wonder whether under someone else the arrogant complacent shambles that has been May's campaign might have been beaten?
Against a more effective leader, the poll leads would have been less inviting, the need to come up with a better manifesto and campaign more obvious, the effort in organising the latter hard ti hide, and a snap election harder to call in the first place.
Of course we have yet to see whether May's campaign was a shambles or not. What we are calling a shambles is the inputs. The proof of the pudding is in the outputs. If she wins by 100 seats then by definition it was the other campaigns that were the shambles.
What is true is that 24 hours from now people will be judging everything by the result: If you win big everything you did was genius and everything your opponents did was dumb, and vice versa. But this is never really true: There are lots of factors in a campaign, losing campaigns do some things right, and winning campaigns do a lot of things wrong.0 -
Laziness is a disqualifier in every other aspect of life.Ishmael_Z said:
I am pretty certain it would bring turnout into line across all age groups - i.e. the young would vote. You can say (if you are happy with the end result which is bad for Lab/good for con) that if they can't be arsed to walk for 5 minutes in the rain they don't deserve a vote, but that's hard to justify - universal suffrage is what it says it is, and laziness is no more a disqualification than is being white working class with no degree (despite the secret view of the Remainers).kle4 said:What problem does voting online solve? It's not hard to get to a polling station, and if it is for some reason, we have postal votes and proxy votes.
Did a yougov poll a few weeks back asking about it, and how much more likely to vote I would be if I could do it online. Since I'd vote anyway I said no more likely, but even some say they would be more likely, as I say it's not hard now.
Counting would be quicker, but is the speed of the count a problem that needs solving?
Assuming it would be secure, usher current system so insecure it needs ditching?
The polling station approach is superior for two reasons:
a) it affords a moment of quiet solemn reflection, which underlines the importance of the decision. This isn't about who wins Britains Got Xfactor on the Island, it's about who governs us for 5 years or whether we leave the EU. That matters and the process should reflect that. Indeed I quite like the French approach where the preceding day is a day for contemplation and reflection.
b) it ensures no coercion of the voter in the polling booth. Online voting could be open to all sorts of coercion.
Pen and paper - beats the Russians, terrorists and angry mob every time.
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Betting round-up
Bets I'm confident about: LDs 0-10 seats, 10-19 seats, 20-29 seats. One of those is coming in. Ideally 10 for a double hit. Lab hold Cardiff Central, Lab hold Bristol West, Lab hold Norwich South, Lab hold Heywood and Middleton, Lab hold Rhondda, Lab vote share 30-35%, Lab hold Vauxhall
Hopeful: Con gain C&W, Lab gain East Lothian, Lab hold Ynys Mon, Lab hold Westminster North, Con gain Stoke-on-Trent Central, Con gain Stoke-on-Trent North Lab hold Leicester West, Lab hold Bury South, Lab hold Newport West, Lab hold Alyn and Deeside, Lab hold Cambridge, Lab hold Southampton Test, Lab hold Harrow West, Lab hold Ealing Central, Lab hold Ashfield, Lab hold Ellesmere Port, Con gain Batley and Spen, Con gain North Norfolk, Con gain Birmingham Erdington, Con gain Worsley & E
Regretting: Con gain Heywood and Middleton, Lab vote share 25-30%, Con gain York Central, Con gain Bradford South, Con hold Kingston & S, Con gain Norwich South
Outsiders: Lab gain Gower, Lab gain Sheffield Hallam, Lab gain Leeds NW, Lab gain Plymouth Sutton, Lab gain Thurrock, Lab gain Preseli, Lab gain Derby North, Lab gain Broxtowe, Lab gain Paisley and Ren South, LDs gain Argyll and Bute, Lab gain Morley and Outwood, Lab hold Dewsbury, Con gain Don Valley, Con gain Rochdale, Con gain Bristol West
Cover bets: LD gain Vauxhall. might back Lamb to hold in Norfolk North as he's now odds against.
I dont even remember some of these. drink involved i suspect. have already cashed out a couple of con gain bets for losses but cant remember where. I'm a bit heavy on Lab holds and on the LDs doing badly. Hopefully if the Lab holds go down more of the Con gains will come in and vice versa.0
