politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017

Hertsmere's UKIP candidate has put a status on Facebook that he thinks it will be a Conservative whitewash there.
What a stunning pearl of wisdom.
A mate of mine knows him and described him as an 'absolute c*nt' for what it's worth.

I actually can't remember who I voted for in 2001, it was just as I was leaving UNI, so likely to be one of the Bristol Seats. It might have been lib dem, or even labour...

2005; Wells-Tory
2010: Wells-Tory
2015:East Hampshire-Tory
2017: Surrey Heath- voting for the Gove....

nunu said:

Anyone live in a labour marginal want a vote-swap with me(I'll take a picture)? I live in a safe Labour seat, I'll vote for your party if you vote against labour. Message me or quote me. Thanx!

Lol. It's only an attractive proposition if you both live in marginals.

I like my new profile picture.

Charles said:

Freggles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I'm just going to leave this here:

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/872017947585380352

YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat is

Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?

It's the cover up that gets you.

MarqueeMark said:

Polruan said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.

Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats

And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!

Not true.

I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.

Here's my list:

Twickenham
One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)

O&S
Edinburgh West
Fife NE
East Dunbartonshire

Ceredgion

Westmoreland & Lonsdale
North Norfolk
Sheffield Hallam

Plus two from my possible list:
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Ives
Bath
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Lewes
OxWAb

St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.

But Farron hasn't been to visit.....

Yes, he has, Mr Mark. There is a video to prove it too....

Im sorry, I'm still half asleep, am I reading this headline from the local press right? Even referring on,y to the local circulation area it makes no sense.

http://www.wiltshiretimes.co.uk/news/15333729.Labour_may_overtake_Tories_in_west__poll_finds/

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Hertsmere's UKIP candidate has put a status on Facebook that he thinks it will be a Conservative whitewash there.
What a stunning pearl of wisdom.
A mate of mine knows him and described him as an 'absolute c*nt' for what it's worth.

You mean he doesn't like him?

PClipp said:

MarqueeMark said:

Polruan said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

rcs1000 said:

The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.

Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats

And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!

Not true.

I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.

Here's my list:

Twickenham
One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)

O&S
Edinburgh West
Fife NE
East Dunbartonshire

Ceredgion

Westmoreland & Lonsdale
North Norfolk
Sheffield Hallam

Plus two from my possible list:
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Ives
Bath
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Lewes
OxWAb

St Ives is an interesting case - lots of LD tacticals who jumped ship to Green/Lab after the coalition are (saying they are) coming back. The previous LD incumbent is popular locally, the Tory MP is quite a polarising figure.

But Farron hasn't been to visit.....

Yes, he has, Mr Mark. There is a video to prove it too....

OK, but not in the last four weeks?

Slow start in Barnes. First hour well down on first hour in 2015.

Charles said:

Freggles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

I'm just going to leave this here:

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/872017947585380352

YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat is

Trespass? Criminal damage? Conspiracy to commit the above?

Was she the one responsible for crop circles?

Early voting is complete at Auchentennach Central & West Claymore

Mrs MacBonkers from the post office cast her ballot at 6:59am and the Returning Officer is about to read the result :

"I JackW being the returning Officer for Auchentennach Central and West Claymore do hereby give notice that the total number of votes given for each candidate at the parliamentary election held on the 8th June is as follows :

Jeremy Seamus Corbyn - Labour and Sinn Fein Alliance - No Votes
Timothy Messiah Farron - Liberal Democrat God Botherer Party - Minus one vote (died in custody)
Theresa Wobble Bottom May - Conservative and Unionist Bed Wetters - No Votes
Mrs JackW - Scottish Jacobite & Footwear Spenders Union - 47,894,201

I do hereby declare that Mrs JackW is hereby elected to the Bond Street Frequent Shoppers Parliament.

paulyork64 said:

nunu said:

Look at Scotland! SNP down to 43 seats, losing same number as labour GB wide!

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872692409091723264

which is the red seat south of glasgow?

Jim Murphy's old Eastwood seat. Renfrewshire South?

SquareRoot said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Hertsmere's UKIP candidate has put a status on Facebook that he thinks it will be a Conservative whitewash there.
What a stunning pearl of wisdom.
A mate of mine knows him and described him as an 'absolute c*nt' for what it's worth.

You mean he doesn't like him?

To put it mildly, yes.

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stephen Bush:

Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?

A few candid comments before I head off for my duties.

- I'm not bothering in go to Nottingham South (was a Tory target), let alone Nottingham North, as I believe they're both safe. I'm uneasy about Gedling, but I can do more good in Broxtowe as a known face - I'll be based in WWC Kimberley and the surrounding commuterland all day.

- ICM's assumptions seem to me too bold, Survation's too nonchalant. I feel pretty sure the result will be in between.

- Class is now dead as a significant factor, see HYUFD's stats.

- I do think the "Enough is Enough" comment cut through and has helped steady the Tories, and it may even have started a little swingback in the last days.

- The Tories appear to have neglected their vulnerable seats and gone all out for attack. I only know Broxtowe well: they have had just two leaflets throughout the campaign, both low key, and Soubry has been out with tiny canvass groups. I expect Labour's result there to be better than the national swing (our effort there has been huge) - if Survation is right, Broxtowe will fall.

- Although suspicious of subsamples, there seems lots of evidence of big regional variance. I think Scotland may well be the biggest.

Best guess: Labour over 200 but Tory majority of 80 thanks partly to Scottish advances.

IanB2 said:

nichomar said:

Trying to get a handle on how many PVs have gone astray particularly overseas but also in UK as their is only 4/8 from people I know here in Spain. It does also stem from the Plymouth story a few days ago in which my daughter was involved.

I would be surprised if many have gone astray (on the outward) in the UK, as most councils posted them out very early

Ours were posted on 19/5

TheScreamingEagles said:

I like my new profile picture.

Very bold. I'm not sure it's a good idea to have people using pictures of real-life superheros. It might create confusion or embarrassment.

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stephen Bush:

Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?

Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?

That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.

kle4 said:

freetochoose said:

kle4 said:

freetochoose said:

MikeSmithson said:

My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.

What's a vote-swap vote?

Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.

But how does he get two votes?

He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.

Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libs

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stephen Bush:

Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?

Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?

That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.

PR delivers government power and ministries to tiny parties with a tiny percentage of the vote. How is that any better?

ChaosOdin said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stephen Bush:

Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?

Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?

That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.

PR delivers government power and ministries to tiny parties with a tiny percentage of the vote. How is that any better?

2010-2015 v 2005-2010 or 2015-2017

QED

freetochoose said:

kle4 said:

freetochoose said:

kle4 said:

freetochoose said:

MikeSmithson said:

My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.

What's a vote-swap vote?

Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.

But how does he get two votes?

He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.

Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libs

I'll leave to him to explain if he cares to, as I might be wrong, but I believe he is a lib in Bedford voting lab, as part of a gentlemans agreement that his lab friend in twickenham votes lib.

Each gets a better chance of their party winning a seat that way.

freetochoose said:

kle4 said:

freetochoose said:

kle4 said:

freetochoose said:

MikeSmithson said:

My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.

What's a vote-swap vote?

Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.

But how does he get two votes?

He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.

Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libs

Its that 'vote swap' website. You contract with another person in a more winnable seat to both swap your own votes, in your own seats, tactically.

nunu said:

Look at Scotland! SNP down to 43 seats, losing same number as labour GB wide!

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872692409091723264

They've also now got Stirling going to the Tories.

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stephen Bush:

Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?

Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?

That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.

I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.

ChaosOdin said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stephen Bush:

Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?

Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?

That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.

PR delivers government power and ministries to tiny parties with a tiny percentage of the vote. How is that any better?

I like coalition. Although I'm actually up for a variety of options rather than pure PR in truth.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Coral have flagged an offer of Con most seats @ 20/1 if you sign up

but it says the winnings are paid in free bets. SO no actual money?

Just begun listening to the podcast, and agree entirely with Mr. Eagles that the Conservative campaign has been far too soft on Corbyn.

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stephen Bush:

Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?

Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?

That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.

I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.

Not a partisan advantage if labour can also get over 50% of seats on that Amount of vote, or even less, was my point. It may well be the inefficiency of votes now mean the historic labour advantage is not there, but what you're pointing to is just the existence of FPTP rather than an imbalance caused by boundaries which was raised.

kle4 said:

freetochoose said:

kle4 said:

freetochoose said:

kle4 said:

freetochoose said:

MikeSmithson said:

My vote-swap vote is being cast in Twickenham CON-LD marginal. My actual vote in Bedford CON-LAB marginal.

What's a vote-swap vote?

Not a real thing - iirc correctly it's just OGH in a gentlemans agreement with a friend in twickenham, that they vote ld and he votes lab, since their own preferences have no chance in their own seats.

But how does he get two votes?

He doesn't. I think he was saying he is voting in Bedford, but for the candidate his friend would like, and his friend will vote in twickenham for the candidate mike would like.

Still don't get it, he's a lib voting in Bedford for the libs

I'll leave to him to explain if he cares to, as I might be wrong, but I believe he is a lib in Bedford voting lab, as part of a gentlemans agreement that his lab friend in twickenham votes lib.

Each gets a better chance of their party winning a seat that way.

OK I think I'm there, I assumed (wrongly) he was voting lib in Bedford.

Still very odd

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stephen Bush:

Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?

Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?

That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.

I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.

Not a partisan advantage if labour can also get over 50% of seats on that Amount of vote, or even less, was my point. It may well be the inefficiency of votes now mean the historic labour advantage is not there, but what you're pointing to is just the existence of FPTP rather than an imbalance caused by boundaries which was raised.

The fact that someone else (hypothetically) has a bigger advantage does not negate that the Tories have a big advantage themselves.

By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?

As at every GE, I voted in the hope that next election we'll all be able to vote online...

Jonathan said:

British politics has proved exhaustively that FPTP is crap.

FICBWNBC

(FPTP Is Crap But Will Not Be Changed)

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

SouthamObserver said:

CarlottaVance said:

Stephen Bush:

Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

This is great if politics is an argument in the pub. But the blunt truth is that Labour would swap Ed Miliband’s 31 per cent for Gordon Brown’s 28 per cent in a heartbeat, as that 28 per cent delivered 40 Scottish Labour MPs and a hung parliament.

It feels to me that once again, Labour will have gained voters while moving further away from office.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/britain-brink-most-dangerous-constitutional-rewrite-modern-history

And the constituency changes the Tories will oversee in the next parliament will make things even more imbalanced, while empowering the executive further. That is not a good thing.

You mean it will remove the imbalance currently in Labour's favour?

Lol. From the system that is about to deliver majority power based on a low 40%s vote share?

That doesn't prove anything re party advantage, at other times it's delivered even more power on less of the vote. PR, now that's what we need.

I think having say 43% of the vote delivering say 55% of the seats can reasonably be described as an advantage.

Not a partisan advantage if labour can also get over 50% of seats on that Amount of vote, or even less, was my point. It may well be the inefficiency of votes now mean the historic labour advantage is not there, but what you're pointing to is just the existence of FPTP rather than an imbalance caused by boundaries which was raised.

The fact that someone else (hypothetically) has a bigger advantage does not negate that the Tories have a big advantage themselves.

but the whole point was about whether or not labour do have a bigger advantage over their rival, and thus whether the changes redress that advantage fairly or not. Not whether fptp inherently advantages whoever tops the poll.

NickPalmer said:

A few candid comments before I head off for my duties.

- I'm not bothering in go to Nottingham South (was a Tory target), let alone Nottingham North, as I believe they're both safe. I'm uneasy about Gedling, but I can do more good in Broxtowe as a known face - I'll be based in WWC Kimberley and the surrounding commuterland all day.

- ICM's assumptions seem to me too bold, Survation's too nonchalant. I feel pretty sure the result will be in between.

- Class is now dead as a significant factor, see HYUFD's stats.

- I do think the "Enough is Enough" comment cut through and has helped steady the Tories, and it may even have started a little swingback in the last days.

- The Tories appear to have neglected their vulnerable seats and gone all out for attack. I only know Broxtowe well: they have had just two leaflets throughout the campaign, both low key, and Soubry has been out with tiny canvass groups. I expect Labour's result there to be better than the national swing (our effort there has been huge) - if Survation is right, Broxtowe will fall.

- Although suspicious of subsamples, there seems lots of evidence of big regional variance. I think Scotland may well be the biggest.

Best guess: Labour over 200 but Tory majority of 80 thanks partly to Scottish advances.

If Tories are not putting that much effort into Broxtowe they must think it's a HOLD and are concentrating on other more marginal seats. Prehaps Gedling. Hmmm

IanB2 said:

nunu said:

Anyone live in a labour marginal want a vote-swap with me(I'll take a picture)? I live in a safe Labour seat, I'll vote for your party if you vote against labour. Message me or quote me. Thanx!

Don't take a picture (and certainly don't post it anywhere). It is actually quite a serious offence

How about a wife-swap instead? Photo compulsory.

Morning all,

Long wait until 10pm now.

NickPalmer said:

By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?

I see weather not too good in West of country. Might depress the vote there?

AndyJS said:

swing_voter said:

St Ives will be an interesting Fri afternoon count, so a nail biter for those on a LD spread. Andrew George the LD (has been standing since '92, MP 97-15) has cracking recognition and was a shock loss in '15 so a close battle almost guaranteed, apparently he did not sound too confident though the other day. Big Green/Lab/UKIP vote to squeeze - it will not declare till mid afternoon as the ballots from scillies take time, they do things slowly down there, a Lab surge will kill his campaign.

According to the PA list, St Ives is due to declare at 7am, so not a Friday afternoon count.

http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2017_by_name.php

No chance, with ballot boxes scattered across the Scillies to gather in and then the trip to Penzance (by boat probably), on a typically wet blustery day I cannot see the ballots even being on the mainland before 7am, not before 1300 my prediction,

JennyFreeman said:

NickPalmer said:

By the way, the early anecdotes on this thread suggest a light poll, perhaps powered by the sense that everyone's a bit rubbish. That might benefit the Tories (postal votes) or might benefit Labour (youth surge more significant if everyone else is fed up). Dunno. Do we have any guesstimates on the proportion of PVs returned compared to last time?

It's because for most people this is the dullest election in living memory. No-one sensible wants Corbyn to win.

The Tories will win a landslide on a low turnout.

That is so right, to me its like an election has not really been taking place, if I didn't spend time on this website then I would not be thinking about it. At work no one has talked about it.

Colchester 9am - polling station very busy with lots of nhs staff. One heard saying only labour will help nhs