politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At least one of the final polls, surely, will have got GE2017
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I was having a browse for last minute bargains and this caught my eye in SkyBet Requestabets:
Conservatives to win 345+ seats, Labour fewer than 215, SNP fewer than 50, P. Cymru < 4, L Dems < 8 & turnout < 65.0%
Seems good value at 33/1
I put on a purple.0 -
There's a bit of wishful thinking there...paulyork64 said:
So who's taking Brighton P?rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
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Agreed. That's why 18-24 turnout will remain relatively low.The_Apocalypse said:
+1.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn talks about issues that concern young people. May doesn't.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Though I do feel that no one has really truly spoken to young people who haven't gone to uni (approx 50%). The tuition fees issue only addresses young people who do go to uni. When I was at uni I found most people there were already politically engaged and voting. I think those young people that aren't are those that haven't gone to uni.
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Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?foxinsoxuk said:
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.0 -
BUT a) against May he didn't look so bad, and b) he was forced to make nonsense appointments by the boycott of the old top team.Roger said:
It's something of a tragedy that only a Tory landslide will make Labour electable again. When Corbyn's MPs voted overwhelmingly to get rid of him it had nothing to do with consorting with terrorists or harbouring anti-semites or being too left wing. It was because he had not the first idea how to be a leader of a major party.JosiasJessop said:
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.SouthamObserver said:
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.IanB2 said:
The sheep have already voted?foxinsoxuk said:
I am very close:IanB2 said:C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
The What If? of this campaign could be a Corbyn campaign backed by New Labour's remaining big hitters. Cooper in the job would have meant no Diane Abbott moments - according to polls the single most remembered event of the campaign. Which I am sure is what the left will be saying afterwards.0 -
Paddy Power reported in the Racing Post podcast that most of the bets they'd laid were for Labour. Of course, this might just reflect the prices on offer, with Tory-backers not seeing any merit in tying up stake money days in advance on a long odds-on shot.0
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And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats0 -
I shared one with my kids a few days ago very similarCarlottaVance said:
Quite a hammering of the Scots Nats...Lib Dems doing well too!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
C 390
Lab 200
Ld 12
SNP 45 possibly one ind in devon0 -
One Lab, one undecided (prob Green) here. I’ve gone on a vote swap website and have agreed to vote Lab instead of LD, while someone else who normally votes Lab will vote LD.foxinsoxuk said:
Mrs Fox off to work, voting on the way.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Still undecided between Lab and LD. Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.
However we’re both in consitituencies the Tories should hold comfortably.0 -
Were they old or youngThreeQuidder said:I was the 7th person in the queue when I got to the polling station at 7.02am, it didn't open until 7.04.
Never seen that before, but then again I've never voted at this polling station so early.0 -
Labour will finish on well below 200 seats. I reckon around 180 is most likely.nichomar said:
I shared one with my kids a few days ago very similarCarlottaVance said:
Quite a hammering of the Scots Nats...Lib Dems doing well too!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
C 390
Lab 200
Ld 12
SNP 45 possibly one ind in devon
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She’s pretty obviously ill.CarlottaVance said:
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?foxinsoxuk said:
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.0 -
Indeed.Brom said:
If the Algerian Uber drivers desert Labour then they really would be in trouble!TOPPING said:One of my last election acts was trying to convince my Algerian Uber driver taking me to the polling station (to tell) to switch from Lab to Con.
He didn't realise that all that free stuff had to be paid for.0 -
If the LDs don't get you, turnout will....foxinsoxuk said:I was having a browse for last minute bargains and this caught my eye in SkyBet Requestabets:
Conservatives to win 345+ seats, Labour fewer than 215, SNP fewer than 50, P. Cymru < 4, L Dems < 8 & turnout < 65.0%
Seems good value at 33/1
I put on a purple.0 -
This. There is less skin in the game for the non Uni attending 50% this time than there was for the EU ref. Party politics is also a bigger turnoff than a direct question for them to answer like 'should we leave the EU?'.SouthamObserver said:
Agreed. That's why 18-24 turnout will remain relatively low.The_Apocalypse said:
+1.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn talks about issues that concern young people. May doesn't.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Though I do feel that no one has really truly spoken to young people who haven't gone to uni (approx 50%). The tuition fees issue only addresses young people who do go to uni. When I was at uni I found most people there were already politically engaged and voting. I think those young people that aren't are those that haven't gone to uni.
50% of our youngsters did not turn into far left firebrands over a 6 week campaign, it's just ridiculous.0 -
I think Robert bet heavily on the LDs getting 12 seats @GE2015, he's hoping 2nd time lucky.DavidL said:
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats0 -
Voted, no queue and no youngsters about. Two people came in after me but they were fifties at best.
To work!0 -
Not true.DavidL said:
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham
One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S
Edinburgh West
Fife NE
East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
North Norfolk
Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list:
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Ives
Bath
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Lewes
OxWAb0 -
Ha. Nothing wrong with a bit of that. I'm on Con 370 also. I get your total there to 630. Plus speaker plus NI=649. East Devon indy =1?rcs1000 said:
There's a bit of wishful thinking there...paulyork64 said:
So who's taking Brighton P?rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats0 -
That is the usual margin of error for the exit poll, I seem to remember from last time.Casino_Royale said:Also: word of warning. If seats are to be swinging wildly all over the place tonight, I'd expect the exit poll to perhaps be a little less accurate than usual, possibly with both Con/Lab seats predictions having an error of +/- 20 seats.
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If she is, then Corbyn should have protected her earlier rather than subjecting an unwell woman to public humiliation. Instead we had Paul Mason questioning Mrs May's health. While Labour repeatedly sent an ill woman into TV studios.OldKingCole said:
She’s pretty obviously ill.CarlottaVance said:
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?foxinsoxuk said:
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.0 -
There was a discussion yesterday about why young people seem more engaged now, maybe it's for exactly the same reasons the old are. Older yoi get the more politics becomes a real practical matter - if you own a house, taxation on earnings etc. More young people are facing practical political concerns too: dealing with the benefits system, struggling with zero hour or precarious contracts, struggling with housing. My FB has a lot of Labour noise linked to things they've experienced rather than abstract ideas about fairness and justice.SouthamObserver said:
Agreed. That's why 18-24 turnout will remain relatively low.The_Apocalypse said:
+1.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn talks about issues that concern young people. May doesn't.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Though I do feel that no one has really truly spoken to young people who haven't gone to uni (approx 50%). The tuition fees issue only addresses young people who do go to uni. When I was at uni I found most people there were already politically engaged and voting. I think those young people that aren't are those that haven't gone to uni.0 -
It's funny. In 2012 that was the lowest forecast on the site. This time around it's the highest.SimonStClare said:
I think Robert bet heavily on the LDs getting 12 seats @GE2015, he's hoping 2nd time lucky.DavidL said:
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats0 -
That is the risk with the accumulators!IanB2 said:
If the LDs don't get you, turnout will....foxinsoxuk said:I was having a browse for last minute bargains and this caught my eye in SkyBet Requestabets:
Conservatives to win 345+ seats, Labour fewer than 215, SNP fewer than 50, P. Cymru < 4, L Dems < 8 & turnout < 65.0%
Seems good value at 33/1
I put on a purple.
I think the biggest risk is the Lib Dems <8, I have become more optomistic over the last week.0 -
Yup.CarlottaVance said:
If she is, then Corbyn should have protected her earlier rather than subjecting an unwell woman to public humiliation. Instead we had Paul Mason questioning Mrs May's health. While Labour repeatedly sent an ill woman into TV studios.OldKingCole said:
She’s pretty obviously ill.CarlottaVance said:
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?foxinsoxuk said:
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.0 -
Polls have been open 20 minutes.
Where are all the reports from the ground on turnout? Is the Crimson Tide washing all before it, or are they still all in bed?0 -
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.rcs1000 said:
Not true.DavidL said:
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham
One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S
Edinburgh West
Fife NE
East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
North Norfolk
Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list:
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Ives
Bath
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Lewes
OxWAb0 -
I think that would require some of them winning seats in NI.nichomar said:
I shared one with my kids a few days ago very similarCarlottaVance said:
Quite a hammering of the Scots Nats...Lib Dems doing well too!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
C 390
Lab 200
Ld 12
SNP 45 possibly one ind in devon0 -
Nick Robinson said she was 'taken ill' in a taxi on the way to a radio interview with him too. An indictment of London air pollution under the Tories.CarlottaVance said:
If she is, then Corbyn should have protected her earlier rather than subjecting an unwell woman to public humiliation. Instead we had Paul Mason questioning Mrs May's health. While Labour repeatedly sent an ill woman into TV studios.OldKingCole said:
She’s pretty obviously ill.CarlottaVance said:
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?foxinsoxuk said:
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.0 -
But there was a reason why people like Cooper could not work with Corbyn. Milne, McDonnell & co are hugely divisive figures with overtly Marxist agendas. They are in charge behind the scenes. If that changes, then compromise is possible. If it doesn't, it's not. That's why Labour needs to take a deep breath, not make quick decisions.IanB2 said:
BUT a) against May he didn't look so bad, and b) he was forced to make nonsense appointments by the boycott of the old top team.Roger said:
It's something of a tragedy that only a Tory landslide will make Labour electable again. When Corbyn's MPs voted overwhelmingly to get rid of him it had nothing to do with consorting with terrorists or harbouring anti-semites or being too left wing. It was because he had not the first idea how to be a leader of a major party.JosiasJessop said:
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.SouthamObserver said:
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.IanB2 said:
The sheep have already voted?foxinsoxuk said:
I am very close:IanB2 said:C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
The What If? of this campaign could be a Corbyn campaign backed by New Labour's remaining big hitters. Cooper in the job would have meant no Diane Abbott moments - according to polls the single most remembered event of the campaign. Which I am sure is what the left will be saying afterwards.
0 -
Me too. I had no idea why until just now.Freggles said:
YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat isThe_Apocalypse said:I'm just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/8720179475853803520 -
Indeed. Though come to think of it, wasn't there something odd early on about Theresa May's replacement for an interview?CarlottaVance said:
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?foxinsoxuk said:
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.0 -
Apparently so.IanB2 said:
Opening four minutes late is poor. Are things really that slack your way?ThreeQuidder said:I was the 7th person in the queue when I got to the polling station at 7.02am, it didn't open until 7.04.
Never seen that before, but then again I've never voted at this polling station so early.0 -
I think that's a fair bet to give you some entertainment that will hopefully last beyond 22:05.IanB2 said:
If the LDs don't get you, turnout will....foxinsoxuk said:I was having a browse for last minute bargains and this caught my eye in SkyBet Requestabets:
Conservatives to win 345+ seats, Labour fewer than 215, SNP fewer than 50, P. Cymru < 4, L Dems < 8 & turnout < 65.0%
Seems good value at 33/1
I put on a purple.0 -
Where did you find that? Is it still there? I've had a hunt round the site but can't see it?foxinsoxuk said:I was having a browse for last minute bargains and this caught my eye in SkyBet Requestabets:
Conservatives to win 345+ seats, Labour fewer than 215, SNP fewer than 50, P. Cymru < 4, L Dems < 8 & turnout < 65.0%
Seems good value at 33/1
I put on a purple.
0 -
There was a discussion yesterday about why young people seem more engaged now, maybe it's for exactly the same reasons the old are. Older yoi get the more politics becomes a real practical matter - if you own a house, taxation on earnings etc. More young people are facing practical political concerns too: dealing with the benefits system, struggling with zero hour or precarious contracts, struggling with housing. My FB has a lot of Labour noise linked to things they've experienced rather than abstract ideas about fairness and justice.
I don't see how things are much different for youngsters than 2015? The Corbyn message is better but not 43% turnout to 70% upwards better IMO0 -
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.IanB2 said:
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.rcs1000 said:
Not true.DavidL said:
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham
One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S
Edinburgh West
Fife NE
East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
North Norfolk
Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list:
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Ives
Bath
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Lewes
OxWAb0 -
It's possible Abbott did not tell anyone she was ill. She likes being on the telly.CarlottaVance said:
If she is, then Corbyn should have protected her earlier rather than subjecting an unwell woman to public humiliation. Instead we had Paul Mason questioning Mrs May's health. While Labour repeatedly sent an ill woman into TV studios.OldKingCole said:
She’s pretty obviously ill.CarlottaVance said:
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?foxinsoxuk said:
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.
0 -
Good point.The_Apocalypse said:
+1.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn talks about issues that concern young people. May doesn't.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Though I do feel that no one has really truly spoken to young people who haven't gone to uni (approx 50%). The tuition fees issue only addresses young people who do go to uni. When I was at uni I found most people there were already politically engaged and voting. I think those young people that aren't are those that haven't gone to uni.0 -
I never saw any of that. I saw her being found out for what she really is by the media.foxinsoxuk said:
Mrs Fox off to work, voting on the way.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
Still undecided between Lab and LD. Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.0 -
Ninth to vote at my polling station. The Lib Dem teller asked the chap behind me in the queue for his number. Like mine, it started with AV. I turned around and said that I thought our elections were First Past the Post, not AV. A few people chuckled awkwardly and turned away.0
-
Nobody under 30.Pulpstar said:
Were they old or youngThreeQuidder said:I was the 7th person in the queue when I got to the polling station at 7.02am, it didn't open until 7.04.
Never seen that before, but then again I've never voted at this polling station so early.0 -
LibDems telling at 7am? Are you in one of their hard fought targets?Essexit said:Ninth to vote at my polling station. The Lib Dem teller asked the chap behind me in the queue for his number. Like mine, it started with AV. I turned around and said that I thought our elections were First Past the Post, not AV. A few people chuckled awkwardly and turned away.
0 -
Yes I got that question too.Freggles said:
YouGov asked me how naughty running through fields of wheat isThe_Apocalypse said:I'm just going to leave this here:
https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/8720179475853803520 -
In front of me in the queue was a (mid-twenties) lady in pyjamas who needed to be talked through how many boxes you could cross. Both charming, and good for democracy.RobinWiggs said:Polls have been open 20 minutes.
Where are all the reports from the ground on turnout? Is the Crimson Tide washing all before it, or are they still all in bed?
0 -
I miss voting at a polling station.0
-
So here we are. After the crappiest campaign of all time.
My final prediction:
Con: 357
Lab: 219
LD: 10
Green: 1
SNP: 44
Speaker: 1
NI: 18
Tory Majority 640 -
Will that poll use MI5's new "adjustments"? ;-)DavidL said:
With a sample like that it should be definitive.JackW said:
Just one ....asjohnstone said:Are we still awaiting one more poll ?
UKGE .. Sampling 7am-10pm - Size 31,023,731 ..0 -
Lib Dems also ahead in Vauxhall too.rcs1000 said:
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.IanB2 said:
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.rcs1000 said:
Not true.DavidL said:
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham
One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S
Edinburgh West
Fife NE
East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
North Norfolk
Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list:
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Ives
Bath
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Lewes
OxWAb
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/8725500069344337920 -
That is a first time Tory voter. Guaranteed - SHE WANTS BREXITab195 said:
In front of me in the queue was a (mid-twenties) lady in pyjamas who needed to be talked through how many boxes you could cross. Both charming, and good for democracy.RobinWiggs said:Polls have been open 20 minutes.
Where are all the reports from the ground on turnout? Is the Crimson Tide washing all before it, or are they still all in bed?0 -
If I had my way not voting at a polling station would count for half as it just isn't as good.TheScreamingEagles said:I miss voting at a polling station.
Then we'd see how many of the oldies cared about democracy.
I may be amenable for some exemptions.0 -
Any reports from IOS on the ground war so far?
0 -
Colchester. Held by them until 2015 but I don't think they're fighting particularly hard. That said it is a strongly Lib Dem ward I'm in.IanB2 said:
LibDems telling at 7am? Are you in one of their hard fought targets?Essexit said:Ninth to vote at my polling station. The Lib Dem teller asked the chap behind me in the queue for his number. Like mine, it started with AV. I turned around and said that I thought our elections were First Past the Post, not AV. A few people chuckled awkwardly and turned away.
0 -
Our first high turnout klaxon?ab195 said:
In front of me in the queue was a (mid-twenties) lady in pyjamas who needed to be talked through how many boxes you could cross. Both charming, and good for democracy.RobinWiggs said:Polls have been open 20 minutes.
Where are all the reports from the ground on turnout? Is the Crimson Tide washing all before it, or are they still all in bed?0 -
The Private message is a thread by the way, was thinking about this sort of stuff at the pb meet.TheScreamingEagles said:I miss voting at a polling station.
0 -
Go Battlin' Bob! His last hurrah.Essexit said:
Colchester. Held by them until 2015 but I don't think they're fighting particularly hard. That said it is a strongly Lib Dem ward I'm in.IanB2 said:
LibDems telling at 7am? Are you in one of their hard fought targets?Essexit said:Ninth to vote at my polling station. The Lib Dem teller asked the chap behind me in the queue for his number. Like mine, it started with AV. I turned around and said that I thought our elections were First Past the Post, not AV. A few people chuckled awkwardly and turned away.
0 -
I was told by a senior resigner before the event that the parliamentary party was necrotising with Corbyn in charge. His leadership and administrative skills were non existant. He was changing policy on a whim not turning up for meetings and if he did being unprepared. In other words it couldn't have continued whoever had stayed in the shadow cabinet.IanB2 said:
BUT a) against May he didn't look so bad, and b) he was forced to make nonsense appointments by the boycott of the old top team.Roger said:
It's something of a tragedy that only a Tory landslide will make Labour electable again. When Corbyn's MPs voted overwhelmingly to get rid of him it had nothing to do with consorting with terrorists or harbouring anti-semites or being too left wing. It was because he had not the first idea how to be a leader of a major party.JosiasJessop said:
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.SouthamObserver said:
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.IanB2 said:
The sheep have already voted?foxinsoxuk said:
I am very close:IanB2 said:C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
The What If? of this campaign could be a Corbyn campaign backed by New Labour's remaining big hitters. Cooper in the job would have meant no Diane Abbott moments - according to polls the single most remembered event of the campaign. Which I am sure is what the left will be saying afterwards.
It's interesting but not surprising that the Abbott moment is the most remembered but if Corbyn had continued as he was doing pre-coup things would likely have been a good deal worse albeit in different ways0 -
Other than a pre-existing medical condition, one not untypical in ladies of her age or ethnicity, Abbott said in reply to the spoof email that she enjoys good health. I do hope she recovers quickly from her (diplomatic?) illness.SouthamObserver said:
It's possible Abbott did not tell anyone she was ill. She likes being on the telly.CarlottaVance said:
If she is, then Corbyn should have protected her earlier rather than subjecting an unwell woman to public humiliation. Instead we had Paul Mason questioning Mrs May's health. While Labour repeatedly sent an ill woman into TV studios.OldKingCole said:
She’s pretty obviously ill.CarlottaVance said:
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?foxinsoxuk said:
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
Y
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.0 -
Looking at the chart in the header with all its contradictions surely polling companies are in big trouble, it seems after every election even more doubts are cast. I have my own theory which has got me in trouble in the past.
If you were to commission one of the pollsters who would it be? Not sure if they're complacent or simply unable to accurately monitor their database but the models are clearly flawed.0 -
AV mania sweeping the nation!Essexit said:Ninth to vote at my polling station. The Lib Dem teller asked the chap behind me in the queue for his number. Like mine, it started with AV. I turned around and said that I thought our elections were First Past the Post, not AV. A few people chuckled awkwardly and turned away.
0 -
On polling day in 2015 we shared our GE constituency voting history which was quite interesting. Here's mine:
2017 - Kingston &a Surbiton (Con/LD Marginal)
2015 - ditto
2010 - Vauxhall (safe Lab)
2005 - Hammersmith (Lab/Con marginal)
I missed out on voting in 2001 by being less than 10 days underage0 -
I live in Sheffield, I work in Manchester, and usually spend Thursday nights in Manchester.Alistair said:
If I had my way not voting at a polling station would count for half as it just isn't as good.TheScreamingEagles said:I miss voting at a polling station.
Then we'd see how many of the oldies cared about democracy.
I may be amenable for some exemptions.
I am allowed an exemption.0 -
I'm on Labour at 4-9 and the Lib Dems at ~ 21-4.TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dems also ahead in Vauxhall too.rcs1000 said:
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.IanB2 said:
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.rcs1000 said:
Not true.DavidL said:
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham
One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S
Edinburgh West
Fife NE
East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
North Norfolk
Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list:
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Ives
Bath
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Lewes
OxWAb
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/872550006934433792
Imagine being on at 1-10, that'd be uncomfortable.0 -
Understood.Pulpstar said:
The Private message is a thread by the way, was thinking about this sort of stuff at the pb meet.TheScreamingEagles said:I miss voting at a polling station.
0 -
Brexit, obviously.Brom said:
I don't see how things are much different for youngsters than 2015? The Corbyn message is better but not 43% turnout to 70% upwards better IMO0 -
Not in God's country, even if we do have our share of dumb halfwits who will believe Tory liesThe_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
0 -
My vote history is as follows:not_on_fire said:On polling day in 2015 we shared our GE constituency voting history which was quite interesting. Here's mine:
2017 - Kingston &a Surbiton (Con/LD Marginal)
2015 - ditto
2010 - Vauxhall (safe Lab)
2005 - Hammersmith (Lab/Con marginal)
I missed out on voting in 2001 by being less than 10 days underage
2001 - Bath, Tory
2005 - Coventry South, Lib Dem
2010 - Sheffield Central, Tory
2015 - NE Derbyshire, Green0 -
In all honesty I can see Labour coming second to the Tories here. I did like Bob as a constituency MP though.IanB2 said:
Go Battlin' Bob! His last hurrah.Essexit said:
Colchester. Held by them until 2015 but I don't think they're fighting particularly hard. That said it is a strongly Lib Dem ward I'm in.IanB2 said:
LibDems telling at 7am? Are you in one of their hard fought targets?Essexit said:Ninth to vote at my polling station. The Lib Dem teller asked the chap behind me in the queue for his number. Like mine, it started with AV. I turned around and said that I thought our elections were First Past the Post, not AV. A few people chuckled awkwardly and turned away.
0 -
Excellent news! One less Tory/UKIPer and they haven't even started counting the votes yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dems also ahead in Vauxhall too.rcs1000 said:
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.IanB2 said:
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.rcs1000 said:
Not true.DavidL said:
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham
One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S
Edinburgh West
Fife NE
East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
North Norfolk
Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list:
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Ives
Bath
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Lewes
OxWAb
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/8725500069344337920 -
Good morning, my fellow voters.
The Morris Dancer prediction: Con majority 60-80
The octo-lemur prophecy (possibly taking the piss): Con majority 102
The Labour seat changes as compared to historical battlefield defeats of the Western Roman Empire list:
-100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
-90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
-80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
On-topic: I agree that kudos must be given for sticking their necks out. In Morley & Outwood, it's raining quite a bit and likely to continue for much of the day.0 -
Just been to vote in Hedge End, Eastleigh, I was the only one in there. In 30 minutes they had only crossed off 3 names. A very slow start. But then round here it does not seem that there has been an election taking place. No banners, no canvessers. Normally I am bombarded with Lib Dem leaflets. This time I have only had one.0
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salmond - gone and now forgottenmalcolmg said:
Not in God's country, even if we do have our share of dumb halfwits who will believe Tory liesThe_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
0 -
Well, the SNP lies have worn a bit thin......off to do some FerreroRochering?malcolmg said:
Not in God's country, even if we do have our share of dumb halfwits who will believe Tory liesThe_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
0 -
F1: oh, and this is a story worth reading. McLaren are having doubts (potentially deal-ending) about Honda. And rightly so.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/401963070 -
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/872478487109652480Alanbrooke said:
salmond - gone and now forgottenmalcolmg said:
Not in God's country, even if we do have our share of dumb halfwits who will believe Tory liesThe_Apocalypse said:So, anyone here having doubts about a Con majority?
0 -
Whatever the overall result, Hoey being thrown off the boat would be very pleasing.Roger said:
Excellent news! One less Tory/UKIPer and they haven't even started counting the votes yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dems also ahead in Vauxhall too.rcs1000 said:
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.IanB2 said:
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.rcs1000 said:
Not true.DavidL said:
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham
One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S
Edinburgh West
Fife NE
East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
North Norfolk
Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list:
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Ives
Bath
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Lewes
OxWAb
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/872550006934433792
Edit to say - not least because of her anti-cycling views.0 -
Just had a look at my fb feed for the last few days and to my surprise quite a few people 40 and younger, who were not particularly interested in politics waking up to the fact it's happening. They ask the question "are you voting for Corbyn" and almost universally their friends say "no way". Tend to come from WWC backgrounds as well. MOIWYW0
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That's odd. Have they all gone to Portsmouth?currystar said:Just been to vote in Hedge End, Eastleigh, I was the only one in there. In 30 minutes they had only crossed off 3 names. A very slow start. But then round here it does not seem that there has been an election taking place. No banners, no canvessers. Normally I am bombarded with Lib Dem leaflets. This time I have only had one.
0 -
I owe some thanks by the way. I commute in to London and usually vote after work to award myself ten minutes in bed; but I remembered the poster last year who almost didn't get back in time. Thanks, whoever it was, you roused me from my sleep.0
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Morning all what time will this final Mori poll be out?0
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2017 - Wythenshawe and Sale East (Safe Lab)not_on_fire said:On polling day in 2015 we shared our GE constituency voting history which was quite interesting. Here's mine:
2017 - Kingston &a Surbiton (Con/LD Marginal)
2015 - ditto
2010 - Vauxhall (safe Lab)
2005 - Hammersmith (Lab/Con marginal)
I missed out on voting in 2001 by being less than 10 days underage
2015 - Wythenshawe and Sale East (Safe Lab)
2010 - Wythenshawe and Sale East (Safe Lab)
2005 - Broxtowe (Marginal Lab)
2001 - Broxtowe (Marginal Lab)
1997 - Darlington (Lab)
Never voted fpr the winning candidate! (In national or local elections) - Sorry NickP!0 -
The Revenge of the Youthful Remainers is what woke me up in a cold sweat this morning.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
It would be the perfect response to what the oldies did to them last June.
I think we'll have record turnout today and massive queues at polling stations etc. The young are angry.
Roll on this time tomorrow. I cannot stand the tension...0 -
Pulpstar said:
I'm on Labour at 4-9 and the Lib Dems at ~ 21-4.TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dems also ahead in Vauxhall too.rcs1000 said:
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.IanB2 said:
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.rcs1000 said:
Not true.DavidL said:
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham
One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S
Edinburgh West
Fife NE
East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
North Norfolk
Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list:
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Ives
Bath
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Lewes
OxWAb
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/872550006934433792
Imagine being on at 1-10, that'd be uncomfortable. 0 -
if we Baxter my prediction of 45-32-assign approximate figures to other parties and allow for a fall in Scotland, we get:
Con 373
Lab 205
SNP 39
Lib 11
Green 1
NI 18
I think the SNP figure is a bit low and Labour a bit high. But an approximate majority of 90-100 seems possible.
The key thing to remember is all polls are still showing the Tories in the 40s. If that's replicated in the final vote they will have a majority, especially as Labour are clearly still stuck in the thirties (in more ways than one)! The real question will be the size of it.
It will doubtless reassure all bedwetters to know I was wrong about Trump, Brexit, 2015, 2010. However, I was right about Corbyn.0 -
1987 HarrogatePulpstar said:
My vote history is as follows:not_on_fire said:On polling day in 2015 we shared our GE constituency voting history which was quite interesting. Here's mine:
2017 - Kingston &a Surbiton (Con/LD Marginal)
2015 - ditto
2010 - Vauxhall (safe Lab)
2005 - Hammersmith (Lab/Con marginal)
I missed out on voting in 2001 by being less than 10 days underage
2001 - Bath, Tory
2005 - Coventry South, Lib Dem
2010 - Sheffield Central, Tory
2015 - NE Derbyshire, Green
1992 Tayside North
1997 North Norfolk
2001 Ludlow
2005 Ludlow
2010 Ludlow
2015 Ludlow
2017 Ludlow
6 votes for LD/SDP and one for SNP. Today I'll be voting for something different...0 -
Right - just off to vote. Turnout in Trafford expected to be down slightly - it's our special extra week of half term where we can take the kids on holiday and not pay summer holiday prices - pretty much all my daughters' schoolfreinds are away. Not that any of the Trafford seats are interesting enough for this to have an impact.0
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1997 - Sheffield Hallamnot_on_fire said:On polling day in 2015 we shared our GE constituency voting history which was quite interesting. Here's mine:
2017 - Kingston &a Surbiton (Con/LD Marginal)
2015 - ditto
2010 - Vauxhall (safe Lab)
2005 - Hammersmith (Lab/Con marginal)
I missed out on voting in 2001 by being less than 10 days underage
2001/2005 - Kensington and Chelsea
2010 - Tatton
2012 - Manchester Central (by election)
2015/2017 - Sheffield Hallam0 -
Daily Record eve of voting poll predicts all three pro-UK parties will take seats from the SNP
SNP support slumps to 39 per cent as 61 per cent of voters reject independence while Labour pulls ahead of Tories in Scotland.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/daily-record-eve-voting-poll-10581625.amp0 -
Really? What's she got?OldKingCole said:
She’s pretty obviously ill.CarlottaVance said:
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?foxinsoxuk said:
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.0 -
No idea, in 2010 this area was awash with orange everywhere. Nothing this time.IanB2 said:
That's odd. Have they all gone to Portsmouth?currystar said:Just been to vote in Hedge End, Eastleigh, I was the only one in there. In 30 minutes they had only crossed off 3 names. A very slow start. But then round here it does not seem that there has been an election taking place. No banners, no canvessers. Normally I am bombarded with Lib Dem leaflets. This time I have only had one.
0 -
1997: 4 months too youngnot_on_fire said:On polling day in 2015 we shared our GE constituency voting history which was quite interesting. Here's mine:
2017 - Kingston &a Surbiton (Con/LD Marginal)
2015 - ditto
2010 - Vauxhall (safe Lab)
2005 - Hammersmith (Lab/Con marginal)
I missed out on voting in 2001 by being less than 10 days underage
2001: Bethnal Green & Bow
2005: One of the Lewishams, I think West
2010: Battersea
2012by: Croydon North
2015/2017: Greenwich & Woolwich0 -
And no #Miliboredomnot_on_fire said:
Brexit, obviously.Brom said:
I don't see how things are much different for youngsters than 2015? The Corbyn message is better but not 43% turnout to 70% upwards better IMO0 -
Yes, I think that's very fair. He's proven himself to be a competent campaigner. In the past I've described him as a poor salesman selling a poor message:Roger said:
It's something of a tragedy that only a Tory landslide will make Labour electable again. When Corbyn's MPs voted overwhelmingly to get rid of him it had nothing to do with consorting with terrorists or harbouring anti-semites or being too left wing. It was because he had not the first idea how to be a leader of a major party.JosiasJessop said:
And the opposite for Corbyn: unless Labour are trounced, his star is ascendant. He'll have seen off his detractors within the party. Again.SouthamObserver said:
The big story of the campaign is May's personal loss of aura and mojo. Her limitations have been fully revealed. The team we're sending into bat for us in the Brexit talks is weak, ill-prepared and in possession of no strategic advantages. That's a huge worry.IanB2 said:
The sheep have already voted?foxinsoxuk said:
I am very close:IanB2 said:C 355
L 215
LD 11
S 47
O 22
Con 362
Lab 215
LD 11
SNP 40
My certainty level is low, and I think it quite possible that the Con seats could be 40 less. There is a palpable half heartedness about the Tories. The farmers fields that are usually full of posters are bare.
The change in the mood of the Tories was remarkable. Being a Tory canvasser can't be the most enjoyable of activities, yet the Tories I know were, for the first few weeks, absolutely loving it. Then everything changed.
This election might have shown himto be a reasonable populist but it went nowhere towards showing he could lead a party. His equivocation on the EU and appointments like Diane Abbott and Long Bailey have cost Labour literally dozens of seats.
I was wrong. He's a competent salesman selling a poor message to idiots.
Whereas May comes out of this election as a poor sales manager who has just screwed up a product launch into an empty market.
But Corbyn's leadership skills still appear to be terrible. *If* we have PM Corbyn tomorrow morning, then it'll be interesting to see if he can avert chaos.0 -
These voting histories are interesting. It's surely not normal to find people moving around the country to this extent?0
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How can you have an extra week of half term in the middle of GCSEs and A-levels? Genuine question.Cookie said:Right - just off to vote. Turnout in Trafford expected to be down slightly - it's our special extra week of half term where we can take the kids on holiday and not pay summer holiday prices - pretty much all my daughters' schoolfreinds are away. Not that any of the Trafford seats are interesting enough for this to have an impact.
0 -
Chronic Embarrasment, Inflamed Ego and Bruised Self Esteem. Self awareness unaffected.isam said:
Really? What's she got?OldKingCole said:
She’s pretty obviously ill.CarlottaVance said:
Would you have felt the same for a middle aged white male Tory?foxinsoxuk said:
Feels sorry for Diane Abbott, thinks the social media bullying of her horrible.OldKingCole said:
One of my grandchildren, and a 'soon to be’ granddaughter-in-law teach what I still call VI formers. Thoise who can vote will, apparently, vote Labour. And the area in which they live is Tory .And it’s not JC that turns them on, appaerently, but the problems of housing, paying for Uni, and the (effective) cuts in education and health.Brom said:
As I've mentioned before it's not the children and grandchildren of PB members that Labour need the vote of. It's the 'don't care about politics' or 'the left school at 18s'. Are they really turned on to politics for the first time ever by Jeremy Corbyn? I have very, very strong doubts.OldKingCole said:
Anecdote alert. I’ve never seen my 20-something grandchildren so fired up to vote. It’s not their first election, either.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/872561253155299329
Presumably something similar is also going on with Survation?
You'd have to think that if turnout for GE2017 isn't up significantly (probably over 70%,) then the youth surge will have failed to materialise and that would be a good early indicator that the more Labour-leaning pollsters are wrong.
And beyond that, what if there is a rise in turnout - but it consists disproportionately of people who stayed at home in 2015, but were motivated to vote Leave last year, and have now decided to back Mrs May to deliver Brexit?
Voting commences in about 45 minutes, less than 16 hours to the Exit Poll. Tick, tock...
And it’s for Labour!
Oh, and they voted Remain!
Anecdote, tiny sample etc I know, I know.
I feel sorry for her for the way she was treated by her party - "resigned due to ill health" at the peak of the campaign in the middle of Oxford Circus Tube en route to the BBC. Imagine the fuss if the Tories had behaved similarly.0 -
But they do make a lovely couple......Bromptonaut said:
Whatever the overall result, Hoey being thrown off the boat would be very pleasing.Roger said:
Excellent news! One less Tory/UKIPer and they haven't even started counting the votes yet.TheScreamingEagles said:
Lib Dems also ahead in Vauxhall too.rcs1000 said:
There was a big swing to the LDs in the Holyrood elections last year, and the SNP will likely be down to 38-39%. I think it's likelier than people think.IanB2 said:
LibDem 'sources' seem optimistic about Twickenham, Kingston, Richmond at least being in play, East Dun, Cheltenham & W Ox in play, St Albans a better than average swing. Gloomier re. southport, worried for Norfolk - Lewes, St Ives, Caithness most unlikely.rcs1000 said:
Not true.DavidL said:
And you've been telling us all how the Lib Dems are going to be hammered (except in Edinburgh West natch). They would bite your hand off for that right now. As I would for the SNP score!rcs1000 said:The Smithson Junior, official 2017 election forecast.
Con 42%, 370 seats
Lab 34%, 203 seats
SNP 4%, 42 seats
LD 11%, 12 seats
UKIP, 3%, 0 seats
Green 2%, 0 seats
PC, 3 seats
I've been - by the standards of this site - pretty optimistic on the LibDems.
Here's my list:
Twickenham
One other SW London seat (either Richmond, Kingston, or C&W)
O&S
Edinburgh West
Fife NE
East Dunbartonshire
Ceredgion
Westmoreland & Lonsdale
North Norfolk
Sheffield Hallam
Plus two from my possible list:
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
St Ives
Bath
Cheltenham
Eastbourne
Lewes
OxWAb
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/872550006934433792
Edit to say - not least because of her anti-cycling views.
http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/1/590x/BrexitCensureHoeyVoter-716427.jpg0
