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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised we have not had more eve of poll polls today. Surely we will have several by this evening.

    Survation at 11pm. Labour lead?
    My guess is that they will wimp out and go back to a small but increased Tory lead. Its Yougov who have fixed the bayonets.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Tim_B said:

    Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.

    On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.

    Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.

    Uber is amazing.

    Unfortunately, East Hampton Town banned it, which makes it useless in the South Fork.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    The mood here is odd - it feels the way it ought to feel doing a post mortem of the campaign Friday lunchtime with a tory maj >70 in the bag. The fat lady has yet to sing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know:

    My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.

    Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)

    Unfortunately not. (Those who applied for a proxy vote can show up at the polling station if they change their mind). A postal vote can however be taken to the polling station on polling day if it's too late to post it. I don't know if there's any way of getting hold of an emergency postal vote between now and 10pm tomorrow. That would be the only option.

    https://www.yourvotematters.co.uk/faq/voting-by-post
    Thank you Andy.

    So if the postal vote arrives tomorrow she's be able to take it to the polling station?
    Yes, but if possible it would be best not to rely on the post to get hold of it (ironically). If there's anyone who can go to the council and get one, that would be better.
    OK, I'll tell my uncle (her son) to pop over to the council.
    If it has been damaged they will replace it, but they won't issue another standard ballot paper if one has been sent out already, for obvious reasons. Even if she goes to the council.

    What they might do is issue her with a 'special' ballot paper which she can cast, but will be put aside at the count and not added to the declared totals, but noted separately. I never saw the point of this myself - perhaps it might come into play if the whole election went to court, I don't know - but it generally keeps people quiet to be given another paper, even if it won't count.

    I
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Cracking tennis match this Svitolina/Halep.
    DavidL said:

    I might need to try and find which bookie it was I bet with for the Tories getting 10+ seats in Scotland.... anyone any ideas?

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/only-winner-nicola-sturgeon-v-kezia-dugdale-ruth-davidson

    Blimey does Nicola look awkward there or what. The bar is not a high one but that looks like the best "gotcha" moment I have seen in any of the debates in this cycle. And to get them both at once...class.
    This election has exposed her and the SNP quite a bit, but they have a record now to really defend so that was always going to be the case.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Ishmael_Z said:

    The mood here is odd - it feels the way it ought to feel doing a post mortem of the campaign Friday lunchtime with a tory maj >70 in the bag. The fat lady has yet to sing.

    Shades of the mood among us Remainers on June 22 last year.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised we have not had more eve of poll polls today. Surely we will have several by this evening.

    Survation at 11pm. Labour lead?
    My guess is that they will wimp out and go back to a small but increased Tory lead. Its Yougov who have fixed the bayonets.
    The Survation guy was asked for his prediction on Dp and he firmly said NOM. And their lean towards Labour is greater than YouGov.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Charles said:

    I suggest the stockmarket will have a small boost if May gets a good majority.

    Up until now some share prices might have been getting a bit fidgety - relative to what they would otherwise be.

    Spent some time with Investec Wealth this morning.

    In their view the market is pricing in 80 - 120 seat majority for the Tories; GS predicted 88 this morning.

    Little upside if true; if Corbyn wins the market will be "surprised" - FTSE 100 will be ok (butressed by collapsing sterling) but FTSE250 will be slammed
    I would like a minor dip in which to spend this year's ISA money, but this is a be careful what you wish for situation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Ishmael_Z said:

    notme said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know:

    My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.

    Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)

    No. Phone your local council immediately. She can go down in person and get a new ballot paper which she can fill in and hand back.

    She can take the postal vote and hand it in at the polling station it says here (if it has actually come, but too late to post back)

    https://www.yourvotematters.co.uk/faq/voting-by-post

    Not just "the" polling station, but any polling station for that constituency.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    AndyJS said:

    Tim_B said:

    Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.

    On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.

    Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.

    It's the same in many other cities like Toronto, Sydney, Melbourne, Rome. Only in Britain, France, Belgium do you tend to see a lot of women in burkas, niqabs, etc.
    Some other Canadian cities have lots of people in Burkhas, Toronto and Montreal are the exceptions.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.

    On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.

    Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.

    Uber is amazing.

    Unfortunately, East Hampton Town banned it, which makes it useless in the South Fork.
    The press Uber's been getting is amazingly bad.

    You are more into business stuff than I am: do you think Uber's financial's make any sense?
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    DavidL said:

    I might need to try and find which bookie it was I bet with for the Tories getting 10+ seats in Scotland.... anyone any ideas?

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/only-winner-nicola-sturgeon-v-kezia-dugdale-ruth-davidson

    Blimey does Nicola look awkward there or what. The bar is not a high one but that looks like the best "gotcha" moment I have seen in any of the debates in this cycle. And to get them both at once...class.
    I just watched it for the first time and wondered what all the fuss was about TBH.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited June 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.

    On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.

    Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.

    Uber is amazing.

    Unfortunately, East Hampton Town banned it, which makes it useless in the South Fork.
    We found that out at 11pm last night and had to get a cab from the Jitney stop at Southampton to the ferry!
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.

    On another note, vines should about now be coming into flower. For the sake of the English vineyards we need these high winds and blustery/wet weather to abate. The late April frosts were a big enough hit. If the flowers go down as well then our wine is going to be damn expensive and not very good in a rear or two.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised we have not had more eve of poll polls today. Surely we will have several by this evening.

    Survation at 11pm. Labour lead?
    My guess is that they will wimp out and go back to a small but increased Tory lead. Its Yougov who have fixed the bayonets.
    The Survation guy was asked for his prediction on Dp and he firmly said NOM. And their lean towards Labour is greater than YouGov.
    That is not inconsistent with, say, a 4% Tory lead, less than they had in 2015. But we shall see.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    Perhaps if the public were't warned at such absurd levels (x hours to save the NHS) they might listen?
    Labour are under alien mind control from planet Marx. The Conservatives are meant to be responsible grown ups who make tough choices. Only the LDs are being honest on this and they are AWOL.
    DavidL said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    We have a situation where demand for health services is growing 4% a year in an economy that isn't. Anyone who tries to pretend that that is not a problem whoever is in government is just dishonest.
    Absolutely agree, it's not a matter of ideology, you can't run a service on fairy dust. We need to get real and pay more tax.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    Re tonight's polls can they be reported on after the polling stations open in the morning
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    Significant that May is back to Stoke for the second time because she thought she had 2 bankers as gains in Stoke in the bag.Things have changed since she last came-the veneer has shone off and Stokies are seeing through her.Ladbrokes are a stand out 11-8 for the North and Betfred are best priced at 7-2 for the South for Labour holds.May looks weak and nervous.There could still be plenty of red on the map in Stoke.

    All that shows is that the Stoke seats are thought still to be in play.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ishmael_Z said:

    The mood here is odd - it feels the way it ought to feel doing a post mortem of the campaign Friday lunchtime with a tory maj >70 in the bag. The fat lady has yet to sing.

    Surprised all but the New Statesman have ruled out an utter shellacking for Labour - perhaps thats where the betting value is now - on the 120+ and beyond.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,843

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone think Cities of London & Westminster (Con maj 26.7%) is a "toss up"? YouGov's election model does.

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

    It might be, some people there are rich enough to vote for Labour's madness I guess.
    What I do find rather mad is the unstated supposition that a Labour government whose leadership greatly admires actual and former socialist regimes around the world that rely on the apparatus of state to repress democratic opposition; which has long associated with terrorist organisations which use the bomb rather than the ballot box; which would also have a Chancellor who has called explicitly for the "street politics" of mob rule to mobilise; and which harbours a number of close advisers from various Stalinist and other Communist political cultures, could easily be removed from office by electoral defeat in 2022 if it won tomorrow?

    Just as a matter of interest, why does anyone assume that would happen?
    Because this is Britain. We would even survive Corbyn. Poorer, more ragged and divided perhaps but we would survive.
    I'm not so sure. We have lately heard demands, for the first time in my experience, that old people should be disenfranchised because they voted for Brexit and won't live to see the consequences.

    McDonnell calls for riots whenever something he disapproves of occurs. Corbyn admires Venezuela and thugs generally. Why would he not use a majority to abolish general elections?

    Nothing in Kinnock's or Brown's past suggested that they'd contemplate this. But Corbyn's? Really? He'd relinquish power just like that?
    I went through a similar panic a couple of weeks ago when the Corbyn surge was in full swing, but calmed myself and eventually became quite sanguine about the possibility of a Corbyn victory by reminding myself that these thoughts are the mirror image of the paranoid hysteria that gripped the left when Trump won.

    It's a coup! He'll overthrow democracy! The economy will be in ruins! And so on.

    Trump may be a bad president, but he's not a fascist and actually apart from a few surface changes it doesn't look like much will happen. The USA will lumber on after he's gone. I imagine the same would be the case in the unlikely event of a Corbyn government. The economy would suffer, we'd be a lot worse off, but it's not revolution.

    What is it about the current febrile environment that leads us to fear the other side so much that we see fascists and revolutionaries lurking everywhere?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    Re tonight's polls can they be reported on after the polling stations open in the morning

    I don't think there are any laws against it. BBC will only have minimal coverage though, clips of the leaders voting, weather updates.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone think Cities of London & Westminster (Con maj 26.7%) is a "toss up"? YouGov's election model does.

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

    It might be, some people there are rich enough to vote for Labour's madness I guess.
    What I do find rather mad is the unstated supposition that a Labour government whose leadership greatly admires actual and former socialist regimes around the world that rely on the apparatus of state to repress democratic opposition; which has long associated with terrorist organisations which use the bomb rather than the ballot box; which would also have a Chancellor who has called explicitly for the "street politics" of mob rule to mobilise; and which harbours a number of close advisers from various Stalinist and other Communist political cultures, could easily be removed from office by electoral defeat in 2022 if it won tomorrow?

    Just as a matter of interest, why does anyone assume that would happen?
    Because this is Britain. We would even survive Corbyn. Poorer, more ragged and divided perhaps but we would survive.
    I'm not so sure. We have lately heard demands, for the first time in my experience, that old people should be disenfranchised because they voted for Brexit and won't live to see the consequences.

    McDonnell calls for riots whenever something he disapproves of occurs. Corbyn admires Venezuela and thugs generally. Why would he not use a majority to abolish general elections?

    Nothing in Kinnock's or Brown's past suggested that they'd contemplate this. But Corbyn's? Really? He'd relinquish power just like that?
    What support did you give Kinnock or Brown, Alice? Or Blair or Miliband for that matter.

    I'm a Centreist, you see, and I need to understand why the centre in British politics has collapsed. My recollection is that the Conservative Party and most of its supporters were every bit as vituperative towards them as they are now towards Corbyn.
    Indeed so. There is a whole load of pious rubbish written about this, from our Tory friends. Now Corbyn might 'deserve' what he's getting from Crosby/Murdoch/Dacre etc. But were he not in charge, they would sling the mud regardless. Remember the London mayoral campaign? The attacks on Khan were disgusting. Remember the Daily Mail featuring a picture of Ralph Miliband's grave? The idea that the nasty rightwing press and the odious Crosby would let up in the face of a moderate Labour leader simply isn't borne out by the reality of past races.
    Absolutely the attacks on Kinnock Milliband and Brown were just as visceral.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The mood here is odd - it feels the way it ought to feel doing a post mortem of the campaign Friday lunchtime with a tory maj >70 in the bag. The fat lady has yet to sing.

    Shades of the mood among us Remainers on June 22 last year.
    Hmm I wasn't particularly confident of that one seeing as my whole office was leave.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    RobD said:

    Re tonight's polls can they be reported on after the polling stations open in the morning

    I don't think there are any laws against it. BBC will only have minimal coverage though, clips of the leaders voting, weather updates.
    Are they allowed to use words like "brisk" and "steady"?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    edited June 2017
    Charles said:

    I suggest the stockmarket will have a small boost if May gets a good majority.

    Up until now some share prices might have been getting a bit fidgety - relative to what they would otherwise be.

    Spent some time with Investec Wealth this morning.

    In their view the market is pricing in 80 - 120 seat majority for the Tories; GS predicted 88 this morning.

    Little upside if true; if Corbyn wins the market will be "surprised" - FTSE 100 will be ok (butressed by collapsing sterling) but FTSE250 will be slammed
    On a much more pedestrian level I have been humming and hawing about buying my holiday Euros tomorrow before the polls shut. At the moment I think not but....if ICM suddenly narrowed the gap it could be too late.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926

    Re tonight's polls can they be reported on after the polling stations open in the morning

    not by broadcasters but on here andsocial media i think it cant be stopped
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    RobD said:

    Re tonight's polls can they be reported on after the polling stations open in the morning

    I don't think there are any laws against it. BBC will only have minimal coverage though, clips of the leaders voting, weather updates.
    Are they allowed to use words like "brisk" and "steady"?
    'And we have reports that voting is underway at several locations around the country'
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    RobD said:

    Re tonight's polls can they be reported on after the polling stations open in the morning

    I don't think there are any laws against it. BBC will only have minimal coverage though, clips of the leaders voting, weather updates.
    Last election the media avoided any political topic other than showing the leaders voting and nothing controversial
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    edited June 2017
    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    Not just the NHS.

    Mrs Capitano was at a meeting this week with the other headteachers in their academy trust. The main topic was "how to prepare for and manage redundancies". The new funding formula is going to hit a lot of schools.

    It's barely surfaced in the campaign. People will say they weren't warned. 2022 could be messy.
  • RobD said:

    Re tonight's polls can they be reported on after the polling stations open in the morning

    I don't think there are any laws against it. BBC will only have minimal coverage though, clips of the leaders voting, weather updates.
    Last election the media avoided any political topic other than showing the leaders voting and nothing controversial
    My partner told me that in New Zealand all billboards and political advertising have to come down by midnight polling day.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,273

    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does anyone think Cities of London & Westminster (Con maj 26.7%) is a "toss up"? YouGov's election model does.

    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

    It might be, some people there are rich enough to vote for Labour's madness I guess.
    (snip}...nd which harbours a number of close advisers from various Stalinist and other Communist political cultures, could easily be removed from office by electoral defeat in 2022 if it won tomorrow?

    Just as a matter of interest, why does anyone assume that would happen?
    Because this is Britain. We would even survive Corbyn. Poorer, more ragged and divided perhaps but we would survive.
    I'm not so sure. We have lately heard demands, for the first time in my experience, that old people should be disenfranchised because they voted for Brexit and won't live to see the consequences.

    McDonnell calls for riots whenever something he disapproves of occurs. Corbyn admires Venezuela and thugs generally. Why would he not use a majority to abolish general elections?

    Nothing in Kinnock's or Brown's past suggested that they'd contemplate this. But Corbyn's? Really? He'd relinquish power just like that?
    What support did you give Kinnock or Brown, Alice? Or Blair or Miliband for that matter.

    I'm a Centreist, you see, and I need to understand why the centre in British politics has collapsed. My recollection is that the Conservative Party and most of its supporters were every bit as vituperative towards them as they are now towards Corbyn.
    Indeed so. There is a whole load of pious rubbish written about this, from our Tory friends. Now Corbyn might 'deserve' what he's getting from Crosby/Murdoch/Dacre etc. But were he not in charge, they would sling the mud regardless. Remember the London mayoral campaign? The attacks on Khan were disgusting. Remember the Daily Mail featuring a picture of Ralph Miliband's grave? The idea that the nasty rightwing press and the odious Crosby would let up in the face of a moderate Labour leader simply isn't borne out by the reality of past races.
    Yes, that is certainly the case with the Press. You kind of expect something a bit better on PB.com though.

    I notice I haven't had a reply from Alice, the lady I addressed. Or indeed from any any regular Conservative poster.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited June 2017

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.

    On another note, vines should about now be coming into flower. For the sake of the English vineyards we need these high winds and blustery/wet weather to abate. The late April frosts were a big enough hit. If the flowers go down as well then our wine is going to be damn expensive and not very good in a rear or two.
    Personally I like to drink my wine. What do you do with it?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    The Lib Dem battle bus just went past me in Sutton at around 3 o'clock this afternoon
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.

    Definitely. Labour figures should stop speaking as if we're facing a sudden collapse which could be prevented by an injection of cash, and focus on the slower long-term tendencies towards the growth of waste, bureaucracy, disjointedness, and artificial shortages of staff associated with marketisation and the profit-motive.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.

    On another note, vines should about now be coming into flower. For the sake of the English vineyards we need these high winds and blustery/wet weather to abate. The late April frosts were a big enough hit. If the flowers go down as well then our wine is going to be damn expensive and not very good in a rear or two.
    Demand is rising faster than growth in spending and the deficit is getting bigger year on year. Rationing is coming.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    I suggest the stockmarket will have a small boost if May gets a good majority.

    Up until now some share prices might have been getting a bit fidgety - relative to what they would otherwise be.

    Spent some time with Investec Wealth this morning.

    In their view the market is pricing in 80 - 120 seat majority for the Tories; GS predicted 88 this morning.

    Little upside if true; if Corbyn wins the market will be "surprised" - FTSE 100 will be ok (butressed by collapsing sterling) but FTSE250 will be slammed
    On a much more pedestrian level I have been humming and hawing about buying my holiday Euros tomorrow before the polls shut. At the moment I think not but....if ICM suddenly narrowed the gap it could be too late.
    We've just pre-bought a bunch of dollars ahead of a possible investment
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.

    On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.

    Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.

    Uber is amazing.

    Unfortunately, East Hampton Town banned it, which makes it useless in the South Fork.
    The press Uber's been getting is amazingly bad.

    You are more into business stuff than I am: do you think Uber's financial's make any sense?
    Mr. Jessup, the press that Uber has been getting may be dreadful but the service they provide, at least in Leeds where I use it when I visit my boy, is first class*.

    As to Uber's finances I wouldn't know. Making an actual profit doesn't seem to be necessary for a successful company these days - has Amazon yet appeared on the right side of the ledger?

    *In London, not that I get there much these days, I would only ever use a proper black cab.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    marke09 said:

    Re tonight's polls can they be reported on after the polling stations open in the morning

    not by broadcasters but on here andsocial media i think it cant be stopped
    Agreed but it was the broadcast and news media I thought have an understanding not to be political. Maybe they will show Peppa Pig and Thomas the Tank Engine to lighten the mood
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    Vote Labour or the oldies get it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.

    On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.

    Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.

    Uber is amazing.

    Unfortunately, East Hampton Town banned it, which makes it useless in the South Fork.
    The press Uber's been getting is amazingly bad.

    You are more into business stuff than I am: do you think Uber's financial's make any sense?
    Mr. Jessup, the press that Uber has been getting may be dreadful but the service they provide, at least in Leeds where I use it when I visit my boy, is first class*.

    As to Uber's finances I wouldn't know. Making an actual profit doesn't seem to be necessary for a successful company these days - has Amazon yet appeared on the right side of the ledger?

    *In London, not that I get there much these days, I would only ever use a proper black cab.
    I don't think Amazon's core business is turning a profit (or it isn't turning a large one), what is bringing in the big bucks is their cloud computing stuff.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.

    Definitely. Labour figures should stop speaking as if we're facing a sudden collapse which could be prevented by an injection of cash, and focus on the slower long-term tendencies towards the growth of waste, bureaucracy, disjointedness, and artificial shortages of staff associated with marketisation and the profit-motive.
    What is needed is a long term settlement to ensure adequate funding so that the proper number of staff can be trained and retained.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    well fox news is being blacked out from 5am
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    Charles said:

    I suggest the stockmarket will have a small boost if May gets a good majority.

    Up until now some share prices might have been getting a bit fidgety - relative to what they would otherwise be.

    Spent some time with Investec Wealth this morning.

    In their view the market is pricing in 80 - 120 seat majority for the Tories; GS predicted 88 this morning.

    Little upside if true; if Corbyn wins the market will be "surprised" - FTSE 100 will be ok (butressed by collapsing sterling) but FTSE250 will be slammed
    If Corbyn wins my BF account will look particularly healthy.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,119

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised we have not had more eve of poll polls today. Surely we will have several by this evening.

    ICM maybe tonight

    ComRes and YouGov for sure tonight.
    You'd think Panelbase, TNS/Kanter and Survation would want to get one final poll in as well?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    DavidL said:

    I might need to try and find which bookie it was I bet with for the Tories getting 10+ seats in Scotland.... anyone any ideas?

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/only-winner-nicola-sturgeon-v-kezia-dugdale-ruth-davidson

    Blimey does Nicola look awkward there or what. The bar is not a high one but that looks like the best "gotcha" moment I have seen in any of the debates in this cycle. And to get them both at once...class.
    I just watched it for the first time and wondered what all the fuss was about TBH.
    Kezia has been fighting her entire campaign on the premise that she opposes Indyref2 and that it is therefore ok for Unionists to back her. For her to have said otherwise to Nicola of all people is dynamite. Nicola is either lying about it or she isn't. Either way she has shown that she cannot be trusted and is happy to breach the implied confidentiality of private conversations for political advantage.

    And Ruth gets to hammer home her message that if you are a Unionist you vote Tory. You can't trust either of the other main parties.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    GIN1138 said:

    notme said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know:

    My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.

    Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)

    No. Phone your local council immediately. She can go down in person and get a new ballot paper which she can fill in and hand back.

    Thank you.

    I'll tell her son that they need to contact the council.

    She's depressed about it all and is saying she doesn't think she wants to bother now the postal vote hasn't arrived... But she's voted in every election since 1945 so we think it'd be a shame if she missed out.
    Too right. Kick up a stink and get it sorted.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.

    On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.

    Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.

    Uber is amazing.

    Unfortunately, East Hampton Town banned it, which makes it useless in the South Fork.
    The press Uber's been getting is amazingly bad.

    You are more into business stuff than I am: do you think Uber's financial's make any sense?
    Mr. Jessup, the press that Uber has been getting may be dreadful but the service they provide, at least in Leeds where I use it when I visit my boy, is first class*.

    As to Uber's finances I wouldn't know. Making an actual profit doesn't seem to be necessary for a successful company these days - has Amazon yet appeared on the right side of the ledger?

    *In London, not that I get there much these days, I would only ever use a proper black cab.
    Uber-using colleagues in London tellme that Uber is basically just another minicab firm with a excellent booking app for mobile phones. And that's why they use uber.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    marke09 said:

    Re tonight's polls can they be reported on after the polling stations open in the morning

    not by broadcasters but on here andsocial media i think it cant be stopped
    Agreed but it was the broadcast and news media I thought have an understanding not to be political. Maybe they will show Peppa Pig and Thomas the Tank Engine to lighten the mood
    Speaking of which, Alan Johnson has a hilarious article in the current issue of The Oldie, reminiscing about his canvassing days, which he says he will not miss
  • Freggles said:

    our wine is going to be damn expensive and not very good in a rear or two.

    You mean like now?

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    TOPPING said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    Vote Labour or the oldies get it.
    I'm not planning on voting Labour.

    The leaked NHS cost cutting plans are in the public domain, if you think they are fake it's your call.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    Not just the NHS.

    Mrs Capitano was at a meeting this week with the other headteachers in their academy trust. The main topic was "how to prepare for and manage redundancies". The new funding formula is going to hit a lot of schools.

    It's barely surfaced in the campaign. People will say they weren't warned. 2022 could be messy.
    And a lot of schools previously underfunded will gain. But they, of course, will say little about it. As usual only the losers make a noise.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.
    Oh come on... we have had "24 hours to save the NHS" for years and years. It is a traditional part of the election just like the swingometer.

    We always have 24 hours to save the NHS. It will not be election day if we miss it out!!!!

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,381

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.

    On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.

    Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.

    Uber is amazing.

    Unfortunately, East Hampton Town banned it, which makes it useless in the South Fork.
    The press Uber's been getting is amazingly bad.

    You are more into business stuff than I am: do you think Uber's financial's make any sense?
    Mr. Jessup, the press that Uber has been getting may be dreadful but the service they provide, at least in Leeds where I use it when I visit my boy, is first class*.

    As to Uber's finances I wouldn't know. Making an actual profit doesn't seem to be necessary for a successful company these days - has Amazon yet appeared on the right side of the ledger?

    *In London, not that I get there much these days, I would only ever use a proper black cab.
    Uber-using colleagues in London tellme that Uber is basically just another minicab firm with a excellent booking app for mobile phones. And that's why they use uber.
    Same reason I use Uber on Tyneside.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.
    I have friends who believe in that '24 hours to save the NHS' some do work in the NHS and others work in other parts of the public sector.

    Then I have friends who think the NHS is a bottomless pit and throwing money at it alone will not fix it.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,203

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.

    On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.

    Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.

    Uber is amazing.

    Unfortunately, East Hampton Town banned it, which makes it useless in the South Fork.
    The press Uber's been getting is amazingly bad.

    You are more into business stuff than I am: do you think Uber's financial's make any sense?
    Mr. Jessup, the press that Uber has been getting may be dreadful but the service they provide, at least in Leeds where I use it when I visit my boy, is first class*.

    As to Uber's finances I wouldn't know. Making an actual profit doesn't seem to be necessary for a successful company these days - has Amazon yet appeared on the right side of the ledger?

    *In London, not that I get there much these days, I would only ever use a proper black cab.
    Amazon is very profitable now.
    Uber has lost more money than any company in history. Billions a year.
    I used Lyft last time - works exactly the same as far as I can tell.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.

    On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.

    Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.

    Uber is amazing.

    Unfortunately, East Hampton Town banned it, which makes it useless in the South Fork.
    The press Uber's been getting is amazingly bad.

    You are more into business stuff than I am: do you think Uber's financial's make any sense?
    Mr. Jessup, the press that Uber has been getting may be dreadful but the service they provide, at least in Leeds where I use it when I visit my boy, is first class*.

    As to Uber's finances I wouldn't know. Making an actual profit doesn't seem to be necessary for a successful company these days - has Amazon yet appeared on the right side of the ledger?

    *In London, not that I get there much these days, I would only ever use a proper black cab.
    Uber-using colleagues in London tellme that Uber is basically just another minicab firm with a excellent booking app for mobile phones. And that's why they use uber.
    Same reason I use Uber on Tyneside.
    Its been squeezed out of Sheffield by City Cabs, and a good thing to !
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    DavidL said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    Not just the NHS.

    Mrs Capitano was at a meeting this week with the other headteachers in their academy trust. The main topic was "how to prepare for and manage redundancies". The new funding formula is going to hit a lot of schools.

    It's barely surfaced in the campaign. People will say they weren't warned. 2022 could be messy.
    And a lot of schools previously underfunded will gain. But they, of course, will say little about it. As usual only the losers make a noise.
    And the net impact will be...?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    Freggles said:

    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    Perhaps if the public were't warned at such absurd levels (x hours to save the NHS) they might listen?
    Labour are under alien mind control from planet Marx. The Conservatives are meant to be responsible grown ups who make tough choices. Only the LDs are being honest on this and they are AWOL.
    DavidL said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    We have a situation where demand for health services is growing 4% a year in an economy that isn't. Anyone who tries to pretend that that is not a problem whoever is in government is just dishonest.
    Absolutely agree, it's not a matter of ideology, you can't run a service on fairy dust. We need to get real and pay more tax.
    Don't disagree. The problem is when Lab seems to be promising to spend money on everything (including WFA for millionaires), the public sensibly dismisses it all.

    If they prioritised a la LDs, and specified what they would spend money on with further "aims" down the line, they would probably get a more sympathetic hearing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,119
    edited June 2017
    IanB2 said:



    If it has been damaged they will replace it, but they won't issue another standard ballot paper if one has been sent out already, for obvious reasons. Even if she goes to the council.

    What they might do is issue her with a 'special' ballot paper which she can cast, but will be put aside at the count and not added to the declared totals, but noted separately. I never saw the point of this myself - perhaps it might come into play if the whole election went to court, I don't know - but it generally keeps people quiet to be given another paper, even if it won't count.

    I


    I can understand they need to be careful with postal voting.

    GIN1138 said:

    notme said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know:

    My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.

    Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)

    No. Phone your local council immediately. She can go down in person and get a new ballot paper which she can fill in and hand back.

    Thank you.

    I'll tell her son that they need to contact the council.

    She's depressed about it all and is saying she doesn't think she wants to bother now the postal vote hasn't arrived... But she's voted in every election since 1945 so we think it'd be a shame if she missed out.
    Too right. Kick up a stink and get it sorted.
    My uncle is ringing the council to see what they can do.

    I think the problem is that they applied for her to have a postal vote a bit late... They got the confirmation the other day that she's going ti vote by post from now on... But obviously it was a bit too late to get the ballot paper out to her this time.

    We'll see what happens anyway.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.

    On another note, vines should about now be coming into flower. For the sake of the English vineyards we need these high winds and blustery/wet weather to abate. The late April frosts were a big enough hit. If the flowers go down as well then our wine is going to be damn expensive and not very good in a rear or two.
    Demand is rising faster than growth in spending and the deficit is getting bigger year on year. Rationing is coming.
    What do you mean "rationing [in the NHS] is coming"? The NHS has always used rationing. It is how it has worked from 1948 up until now.

    Rationing may get stricter, it almost certainly will. The only way to avoid that is to actually have a proper discussion about the best method of providing free at the point of use health care in the 21st century. It will not happen if we insist that a model that might have worked in 1948 must be continued forever.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    "24 Hours to save the NHS" vs "24 hours to save Brexit"
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2017

    RobD said:

    Re tonight's polls can they be reported on after the polling stations open in the morning

    I don't think there are any laws against it. BBC will only have minimal coverage though, clips of the leaders voting, weather updates.
    Last election the media avoided any political topic other than showing the leaders voting and nothing controversial
    My partner told me that in New Zealand all billboards and political advertising have to come down by midnight polling day.
    Election Silence in New Zealand applies between the hours 00:00 and 19:00 on Election Day.
    Australia imposes the same from midnight Wednesday, elections take place on Saturday.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited June 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised we have not had more eve of poll polls today. Surely we will have several by this evening.

    ICM maybe tonight

    ComRes and YouGov for sure tonight.
    You'd think Panelbase, TNS/Kanter and Survation would want to get one final poll in as well?
    I think the Survation poll the other day was their final poll.

    Edit - Plus Ipsos MORI will have a poll out tomorrow morning.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676

    rcs1000 said:

    Tim_B said:

    Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.

    On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.

    Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.

    Uber is amazing.

    Unfortunately, East Hampton Town banned it, which makes it useless in the South Fork.
    The press Uber's been getting is amazingly bad.

    You are more into business stuff than I am: do you think Uber's financial's make any sense?
    Mr. Jessup, the press that Uber has been getting may be dreadful but the service they provide, at least in Leeds where I use it when I visit my boy, is first class*.

    As to Uber's finances I wouldn't know. Making an actual profit doesn't seem to be necessary for a successful company these days - has Amazon yet appeared on the right side of the ledger?

    *In London, not that I get there much these days, I would only ever use a proper black cab.
    Uber-using colleagues in London tellme that Uber is basically just another minicab firm with a excellent booking app for mobile phones. And that's why they use uber.
    plus cheaper plus more or less reliable (had a 15 minute wait the other day at 11pm in central London, which was a first).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    notme said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know:

    My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.

    Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)

    No. Phone your local council immediately. She can go down in person and get a new ballot paper which she can fill in and hand back.

    Thank you.

    I'll tell her son that they need to contact the council.

    She's depressed about it all and is saying she doesn't think she wants to bother now the postal vote hasn't arrived... But she's voted in every election since 1945 so we think it'd be a shame if she missed out.
    Too right. Kick up a stink and get it sorted.
    My uncle is ringing the council to see what they can do.

    I think the problem is that they applied for her to have a postal vote a bit late... They got the confirmation the other day that she's going ti vote by post from now on... But obviously it was a bit too late to get the ballot paper out to her this time.

    We'll see what happens anyway.
    Sounds as though she should be able to vote normally then? Especially if she has her polling card.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    DavidL said:

    Charles said:

    I suggest the stockmarket will have a small boost if May gets a good majority.

    Up until now some share prices might have been getting a bit fidgety - relative to what they would otherwise be.

    Spent some time with Investec Wealth this morning.

    In their view the market is pricing in 80 - 120 seat majority for the Tories; GS predicted 88 this morning.

    Little upside if true; if Corbyn wins the market will be "surprised" - FTSE 100 will be ok (butressed by collapsing sterling) but FTSE250 will be slammed
    On a much more pedestrian level I have been humming and hawing about buying my holiday Euros tomorrow before the polls shut. At the moment I think not but....if ICM suddenly narrowed the gap it could be too late.
    My daughter has already converted her holiday money for the Far East into dollars and various local FE currencies
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised we have not had more eve of poll polls today. Surely we will have several by this evening.

    ICM maybe tonight

    ComRes and YouGov for sure tonight.
    You'd think Panelbase, TNS/Kanter and Survation would want to get one final poll in as well?
    I think the Survation poll the other day was their final poll.
    I believe they are doing one final big poll for tonight.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Pulpstar said:

    "24 Hours to save the NHS" vs "24 hours to save Brexit"

    :p Except no one has ever said the latter (at least to my knowledge), whereas the former is repeated ad nauseam
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is it possible to bet on someone famous saying the phrase "this exit poll is proof that lightning doesn't strike three times in a row" tomorrow night?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Anyone want to price up a spread of PB Posters saying they'd like one thing to happen personally, but predict/bet on the opposite so as to have all bases covered in the all important one upmanship face saving stakes?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    DanSmith said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised we have not had more eve of poll polls today. Surely we will have several by this evening.

    ICM maybe tonight

    ComRes and YouGov for sure tonight.
    You'd think Panelbase, TNS/Kanter and Survation would want to get one final poll in as well?
    I think the Survation poll the other day was their final poll.
    I believe they are doing one final big poll for tonight.
    Cheers
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The Pakistanis are absolutely ripping the Saffers
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Charles said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.

    On another note, vines should about now be coming into flower. For the sake of the English vineyards we need these high winds and blustery/wet weather to abate. The late April frosts were a big enough hit. If the flowers go down as well then our wine is going to be damn expensive and not very good in a rear or two.
    Personally I like to drink my wine. What do you do with it?
    Thank you, Mr. Charles, for making me laugh at my own typo. Not for the first time I am grateful to you.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,676
    isam said:

    Anyone want to price up a spread of PB Posters saying they'd like one thing to happen personally, but predict/bet on the opposite so as to have all bases covered in the all important one upmanship face saving stakes?

    I can tell you right now that I am comfortably green on NOM and win large* with a Jezza maj.

    *win large on the day, I will no doubt become a lot poorer over the years with a Lab govt.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "24 Hours to save the NHS" vs "24 hours to save Brexit"

    :p Except no one has ever said the latter (at least to my knowledge), whereas the former is repeated ad nauseam
    It was on the front cover of the express a couple of days back !
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Freggles said:

    DavidL said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    Not just the NHS.

    Mrs Capitano was at a meeting this week with the other headteachers in their academy trust. The main topic was "how to prepare for and manage redundancies". The new funding formula is going to hit a lot of schools.

    It's barely surfaced in the campaign. People will say they weren't warned. 2022 could be messy.
    And a lot of schools previously underfunded will gain. But they, of course, will say little about it. As usual only the losers make a noise.
    And the net impact will be...?
    Exactly the same as health. Education spending will continue to rise in real terms but not as fast as costs or demand (per capita spending) putting more pressure on the system.

    In the private sector these problems are usually dealt with by increased productivity or reduced costs. The feather bedding of the public sector has been under attack for some years now but has a long way to go. An obvious place to start would be to say that no one over 55 or earning more than £30K a year is eligible for voluntary redundancy packages. The abuse of these over recent years by senior management in so many parts of the public sector has been a national disgrace.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Wow SA are making a mess of this.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    "24 Hours to save the NHS" vs "24 hours to save Brexit"

    :p Except no one has ever said the latter (at least to my knowledge), whereas the former is repeated ad nauseam
    It was on the front cover of the express a couple of days back !
    :o Who reads that thing anyway?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    I hope it is a hung parliament it will reflect the Brexit vote , in that the country is split down the middle.No chance in reality conservative majority of 150 been a forgone conclusion from start to finish.Whatvever you say about the Tories they know how to win power and they were not going to pass an easy win away.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.

    On another note, vines should about now be coming into flower. For the sake of the English vineyards we need these high winds and blustery/wet weather to abate. The late April frosts were a big enough hit. If the flowers go down as well then our wine is going to be damn expensive and not very good in a rear or two.
    Demand is rising faster than growth in spending and the deficit is getting bigger year on year. Rationing is coming.
    What do you mean "rationing [in the NHS] is coming"? The NHS has always used rationing. It is how it has worked from 1948 up until now.

    Rationing may get stricter, it almost certainly will. The only way to avoid that is to actually have a proper discussion about the best method of providing free at the point of use health care in the 21st century. It will not happen if we insist that a model that might have worked in 1948 must be continued forever.
    New treatments, drugs and equipment are appearing all the time. All cost money.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    notme said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone know:

    My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.

    Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)

    No. Phone your local council immediately. She can go down in person and get a new ballot paper which she can fill in and hand back.

    Thank you.

    I'll tell her son that they need to contact the council.

    She's depressed about it all and is saying she doesn't think she wants to bother now the postal vote hasn't arrived... But she's voted in every election since 1945 so we think it'd be a shame if she missed out.
    Too right. Kick up a stink and get it sorted.
    My uncle is ringing the council to see what they can do.

    I think the problem is that they applied for her to have a postal vote a bit late... They got the confirmation the other day that she's going ti vote by post from now on... But obviously it was a bit too late to get the ballot paper out to her this time.

    We'll see what happens anyway.
    Sounds as though she should be able to vote normally then? Especially if she has her polling card.
    Yeah, if she is not on the postal voters list she can vote normally. Quite often people think they have a PV when they don't, usually because they applied the last time but ticked the "this election only" box, or the "local elections only" (although generals only is more common) but think they have applied for a permanent one. Or, as in this case, because the application didn't arrive in time.

    It's a happy ending because she wouldn't have got a countable replacement had it actually gone missing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    edited June 2017
    Yorkcity said:

    I hope it is a hung parliament it will reflect the Brexit vote , in that the country is split down the middle.No chance in reality conservative majority of 150 been a forgone conclusion from start to finish.Whatvever you say about the Tories they know how to win power and they were not going to pass an easy win away.

    Brexit was about 430 - 220 in constituency terms I think.
  • Yes, that is certainly the case with the Press. You kind of expect something a bit better on PB.com though.

    I notice I haven't had a reply from Alice, the lady I addressed. Or indeed from any any regular Conservative poster.

    I didn't understand the question, Peter.

    My observation was that Corbyn's backstory, unlike that of any other party leader I can recall, simply does not reassure one that he and his acolytes are sure to respect democracy, parliament, or his colleagues if it looks like he's headed for the doors come GE 2021/22.

    The replies I have noticed (I may have missed some) have been to the effect that our existing institutions or his colleagues' integrity would stop him from cancelling the next GE. Oddly, nobody has shown or suggested that such a preposterous idea would never cross his mind. This is my concern too; I think it would cross his mind, given the company that he keeps.

    Quite a lot of people in the past have made the mistake of thinking that a hard left, hard right, fundamentalist, etc could be safely voted in, allowed to do some necessary dirty work, manipulated, and then neatly disposed of afterwards via an election. It doesn't always happen.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.

    On another note, vines should about now be coming into flower. For the sake of the English vineyards we need these high winds and blustery/wet weather to abate. The late April frosts were a big enough hit. If the flowers go down as well then our wine is going to be damn expensive and not very good in a rear or two.
    Demand is rising faster than growth in spending and the deficit is getting bigger year on year. Rationing is coming.
    What do you mean "rationing [in the NHS] is coming"? The NHS has always used rationing. It is how it has worked from 1948 up until now.

    Rationing may get stricter, it almost certainly will. The only way to avoid that is to actually have a proper discussion about the best method of providing free at the point of use health care in the 21st century. It will not happen if we insist that a model that might have worked in 1948 must be continued forever.
    I mean that services will be restricted, as they already are in some localities, on the basis of cost rather than clinical need and best practice.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/31/nhs-rationing-hip-replacement-patients-needlessly-suffering/amp/

    Need a hip replacement? Sorry, you need to be in more pain before you can go in the waiting list.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Pulpstar said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    The mood here is odd - it feels the way it ought to feel doing a post mortem of the campaign Friday lunchtime with a tory maj >70 in the bag. The fat lady has yet to sing.

    Shades of the mood among us Remainers on June 22 last year.
    Hmm I wasn't particularly confident of that one seeing as my whole office was leave.
    You clearly move in different circles to me!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    TGOHF said:

    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.

    On another note, vines should about now be coming into flower. For the sake of the English vineyards we need these high winds and blustery/wet weather to abate. The late April frosts were a big enough hit. If the flowers go down as well then our wine is going to be damn expensive and not very good in a rear or two.
    Demand is rising faster than growth in spending and the deficit is getting bigger year on year. Rationing is coming.
    What do you mean "rationing [in the NHS] is coming"? The NHS has always used rationing. It is how it has worked from 1948 up until now.

    Rationing may get stricter, it almost certainly will. The only way to avoid that is to actually have a proper discussion about the best method of providing free at the point of use health care in the 21st century. It will not happen if we insist that a model that might have worked in 1948 must be continued forever.
    New treatments, drugs and equipment are appearing all the time. All cost money.

    Not necessarily. A cure for Alzheimer's, for example, could transform both NHS and Social Care costs in a couple of decades. We used to spend serious money on those with AIDs. Now they get a pill a day.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised we have not had more eve of poll polls today. Surely we will have several by this evening.

    Survation at 11pm. Labour lead?
    My guess is that they will wimp out and go back to a small but increased Tory lead. Its Yougov who have fixed the bayonets.
    The Survation guy was asked for his prediction on Dp and he firmly said NOM. And their lean towards Labour is greater than YouGov.
    That is not inconsistent with, say, a 4% Tory lead, less than they had in 2015. But we shall see.
    I just watched the tape of Damian Lyons on DP. I couldn't decide from his somewhat unorthodox manner whether he is a crank or a frustrated genius.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188

    NEW THREAD

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Good afternoon Conservative Bedwetters and watchers alike.

    Just had the last of the "JackW Contacts Dozen" come through. Pushed out 15 with 12 returns. Looking to post an executive summary by 5:30pm.

    This will also include an updated eve of poll JWCBI
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,389
    AndyJS said:

    There are 270 constituencies in the SE, SW, Greater London and Eastern regions. It's possible less than 10 of them will change hands this time.

    In the 2001 GE only 20 non-NI seats changed hands across the whole country!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Here is my prediction:

    None of May, Corbyn, Nuttall and Farron will lead their party into the next GE.

    You can all laugh at me in 2022 (or maybe this autumn).
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    edited June 2017
    DavidL said:

    TGOHF said:

    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.

    On another note, vines should about now be coming into flower. For the sake of the English vineyards we need these high winds and blustery/wet weather to abate. The late April frosts were a big enough hit. If the flowers go down as well then our wine is going to be damn expensive and not very good in a rear or two.
    Demand is rising faster than growth in spending and the deficit is getting bigger year on year. Rationing is coming.
    What do you mean "rationing [in the NHS] is coming"? The NHS has always used rationing. It is how it has worked from 1948 up until now.

    Rationing may get stricter, it almost certainly will. The only way to avoid that is to actually have a proper discussion about the best method of providing free at the point of use health care in the 21st century. It will not happen if we insist that a model that might have worked in 1948 must be continued forever.
    New treatments, drugs and equipment are appearing all the time. All cost money.

    Not necessarily. A cure for Alzheimer's, for example, could transform both NHS and Social Care costs in a couple of decades. We used to spend serious money on those with AIDs. Now they get a pill a day.
    Cancer drugs and their funding is a big issue.

    Though I was pleased to read Pfizer are doing this, I hope more companies might follow their lead.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/pfizer-breast-cancer-drug-free-give-nhs-patients-uk-trusts-nice-ruling-national-institute-health-a7719421.html
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    I am really surprised we have not had more eve of poll polls today. Surely we will have several by this evening.

    Survation at 11pm. Labour lead?
    My guess is that they will wimp out and go back to a small but increased Tory lead. Its Yougov who have fixed the bayonets.
    The Survation guy was asked for his prediction on Dp and he firmly said NOM. And their lean towards Labour is greater than YouGov.
    That is not inconsistent with, say, a 4% Tory lead, less than they had in 2015. But we shall see.
    The car-crash interview with its CEO on the Daily Politics has convinced me there's something up at Survation. Damian LL had no answer but to prevaricate. My first guess is simply that he knows that his panel is not representative but he doesn't want to admit he's made a mistake. But how could something so obvious be a mistake? So my second guess (and this might explain why he was so nervous) is, well, I don't want to be accused of libel so I'll stop there.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I might need to try and find which bookie it was I bet with for the Tories getting 10+ seats in Scotland.... anyone any ideas?

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/only-winner-nicola-sturgeon-v-kezia-dugdale-ruth-davidson

    Blimey does Nicola look awkward there or what. The bar is not a high one but that looks like the best "gotcha" moment I have seen in any of the debates in this cycle. And to get them both at once...class.
    I just watched it for the first time and wondered what all the fuss was about TBH.
    Kezia has been fighting her entire campaign on the premise that she opposes Indyref2 and that it is therefore ok for Unionists to back her. For her to have said otherwise to Nicola of all people is dynamite. Nicola is either lying about it or she isn't. Either way she has shown that she cannot be trusted and is happy to breach the implied confidentiality of private conversations for political advantage.

    And Ruth gets to hammer home her message that if you are a Unionist you vote Tory. You can't trust either of the other main parties.
    From my clear memory Kezia alluded to exactly that on June 24, and clearly has now changed her mind. My feeling was 'so what'? But Scots clearly think differently?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Survation's last polls got it bang on twice recently, both the unpublished GE 2015 result and the Leave.EU E.U ref poll.

    Why would they be so wrong now. Please someone explain, since the E.U ref just like Corbyn turned out people who have never voted before so weighting like ICM would always miss surges amongst the population who are normally low propensity voters.
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434

    Yes, that is certainly the case with the Press. You kind of expect something a bit better on PB.com though.

    I notice I haven't had a reply from Alice, the lady I addressed. Or indeed from any any regular Conservative poster.

    I didn't understand the question, Peter.

    My observation was that Corbyn's backstory, unlike that of any other party leader I can recall, simply does not reassure one that he and his acolytes are sure to respect democracy, parliament, or his colleagues if it looks like he's headed for the doors come GE 2021/22.

    The replies I have noticed (I may have missed some) have been to the effect that our existing institutions or his colleagues' integrity would stop him from cancelling the next GE. Oddly, nobody has shown or suggested that such a preposterous idea would never cross his mind. This is my concern too; I think it would cross his mind, given the company that he keeps.

    Quite a lot of people in the past have made the mistake of thinking that a hard left, hard right, fundamentalist, etc could be safely voted in, allowed to do some necessary dirty work, manipulated, and then neatly disposed of afterwards via an election. It doesn't always happen.
    It's no more true than all the Lefties who talked about Thatcher as moving towards a British Fascism. The idea would never cross his mind, he is a democrat and a believer in parliament just as much as any other MP. The Tory papers are good at inflating actions in his past and interpreting them in the least flattering light, it's good electioneering and expected, but let's not start actually believing it.
  • ScarfNZScarfNZ Posts: 29
    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    Freggles said:

    So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.

    The last administration that actually cut the funding of the NHS was Labour under Callaghan. That there are enormous problems that need to be resolved is not in doubt, but please spare us the 24 hours to save the NHS nonsense.

    On another note, vines should about now be coming into flower. For the sake of the English vineyards we need these high winds and blustery/wet weather to abate. The late April frosts were a big enough hit. If the flowers go down as well then our wine is going to be damn expensive and not very good in a rear or two.
    Demand is rising faster than growth in spending and the deficit is getting bigger year on year. Rationing is coming.
    What do you mean "rationing [in the NHS] is coming"? The NHS has always used rationing. It is how it has worked from 1948 up until now.

    Rationing may get stricter, it almost certainly will. The only way to avoid that is to actually have a proper discussion about the best method of providing free at the point of use health care in the 21st century. It will not happen if we insist that a model that might have worked in 1948 must be continued forever.
    I mean that services will be restricted, as they already are in some localities, on the basis of cost rather than clinical need and best practice.


    Need a hip replacement? Sorry, you need to be in more pain before you can go in the waiting list.
    Your never going to meet the demand for healthcare as demand will always outstrip supply. However, the health need does not magically disappear. If a patient cannot get, say, a hip replacement, the patient will present to their GP for pain management or require a referral to to a physio. Another part of the health system picks up the patient.

    What the NHS needs is to develop new models of care. As opposed to sending patients to A&E, the non-critical cases need to go to 24 hour by 7 day non-critical care units. Skin lesions can be done in a GP's surgery. Patients admitted acutely who need an operation but don't need one immediately can be deferred until the end of the week and batched. Falls prevention should be implemented in the community. etc. etc. It is only by keeping people out of hospital that the NHS is going to stand a chance of providing care.

    The mantra needs to be, "The whole health system has to be working for the system to work."
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,767

    Here is my prediction:

    None of May, Corbyn, Nuttall and Farron will lead their party into the next GE.

    You can all laugh at me in 2022 (or maybe this autumn).

    Thats not that unreasonable. May probably won't, corbyn will be too old anyway, and as for Nuttal and Farron, who knows.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,656

    Here is my prediction:

    None of May, Corbyn, Nuttall and Farron will lead their party into the next GE.

    You can all laugh at me in 2022 (or maybe this autumn).

    The biggest variable there is when the next election is. If it goes the full five (or four) years, then I'd say it's very likely that all four will change.
  • Here is my prediction:

    None of May, Corbyn, Nuttall and Farron will lead their party into the next GE.

    You can all laugh at me in 2022 (or maybe this autumn).

    The biggest variable there is when the next election is. If it goes the full five (or four) years, then I'd say it's very likely that all four will change.
    You can also add Sturgeon to the list and possibly Wood
This discussion has been closed.