Folks, after many years on the site and dabbling in betting on both bookies and backing bets on the exchanges, can I ask a real newbie question.
If I lay "Labour most seats" on the Betfair exchange for say £10 at odds of 14.5, my winnings if Labour aren't most seats are a tenner, and my liability if they are is 14.5 x £10.
I know it is obvious, but I just want to be absolutely sure before I take up what looks to be almost free money?
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
Link? Or just feeble trolling?
Several Tory commenters here have "explained" that jihadists are in fact "extreme" Muslims and that the core problem is the character or present character of Islam. I am willing to concede that not all Tories think that way, but many certainly do.
And they are right. Try learning something about Islam before flaunting your right-onness about everything. Starter question: why do you think their is a ready-made word for jihad in the Arabic language? What is its primary meaning? And how far back has it had the secondary meaning of killing infidels for Allah?
You ill-mannered sod! "Try learning something" and "starter question" indeed. With a semantic argument too. Had a look at the Book of Revelations recently? Or ideas of the apocalypse or end of times in other religious books?
"from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind"", and I'm the ill-mannered one?
Not sure what any of your points are. To the extent that Christianity is a driver for crusades and burnings-at-the-stake and such, it is as despicable as any other religion which does the same (and that goes for those Sun God guys in Apocalypse). The book of Revelations doesn't exhort anyone to kill anyone else and if it did it would be wrong to do so. And if you think you are scoring a tit for tat point because I am a Christian - I am not.
There is definitely a way forward if both sides of Labour want it. Corbyn has surprised me and many others with his campaigning style - and he has clearly demonstrated that a positive, redistributive message can be successful (even if the Labour manifesto itself is not that redistributive). He has also taught all of us not to worry about the right wing press - something that has really held Labour back in the past. However, what is also clear is that for the Labour message to really get through, it has to be delivered by someone who is seen as strong on security and patriotism. And this is where Corbyn falls down, as do McDonnell, Abbott and others: their baggage, accumulated over many years, is undoubtedly off-putting to voters who value patriotism and prioritise security. So, a Labour leader who is strong on defence and comfortable with the Union Jack would have huge freedom to pitch the left-wing policies that so matter to Labour members. I cannot believe that this does not form the basis of a way forward for the party.
I think that the positive spirit of the campaign has brought a lot of people on the different wings of the Labour movement togther in a way that seemed a bit unlikely some weeks ago. As a Corbynite I appreciate Southam's generous open-minedness and I think that the scenario he describes is quite possible. Similarly, the idea of a centrist split seems to have receded sharply.
Of course, it will be easier if we don't get stuffed tomorrow! (No, this isn't an admission of anything - I genuinely have little clue what's going to happen.)
I suggest you wait 48 hours before you assess how successful it has been. There is a reason most leaders do not prioritise visits to super safe seats in an election. You can get 1 more vote in each seat or 10000. It's still only 1mp. I think we will see a real uptick in labour popularity where it already has MPs and in general in cities. I will be fascinated to see what this yields.
County of Cumbria Prediction: Carlisle Con hold maj 5,000 Pen and Border Con hold maj 18,000 Copeland Con gain (lab 2015, Con by election 2017) maj 3,500 Workington Con possible gain, margin of error either way Barrow Con gain 4,000 Westmorland can't call. Would love for a win, but don't have further info.
In 2009 the cons only had one seat in the county, on Friday they could possibly have all six.
FWIW
Carlisle Con hold Penrith Con hold Copeland Labour regain by around 500 Workington Lab hold Barrow Con gain Westmorland LD hold easily
Am on a university campus today, totally deserted. Interesting to know how having the GE this week rather than couple of weeks ago will have effected things.
Has that spread the cultists wider where they make more of an impact, will it effect turn-out as they have gone on holidays, have they registered in the right place, etc etc etc
On Topic I dont get why punters are inflating Libdem Seat prospects. In England its very simple, Libdems averaging 8%, the same as 2015 while Labour & Tories are substantially up. The Libdems will lose Seats in England - my guess would be down from 7 to 4. That may be offset by gains in Scotland, possibly; but even 2 Gains would still leave the overall Libdem total at 7, down 1. My actual "prediction" is a Libdem total of 5 MPs, 9 would see us punching the air, in a non-violent way.
Folks, after many years on the site and dabbling in betting on both bookies and backing bets on the exchanges, can I ask a real newbie question.
If I lay "Labour most seats" on the Betfair exchange for say £10 at odds of 14.5, my winnings if Labour aren't most seats are a tenner, and my liability if they are is 14.5 x £10.
I know it is obvious, but I just want to be absolutely sure before I take up what looks to be almost free money?
Thanks.
Robin
(14.5*10) + 10 if you include returning the stake, but otherwise that sounds right.
Backed with a tiny sum Con majority 150-174 on Betfair Exchange at 26, largely because I wanted a slight upside hedge if the blues got more than 399 seats, and that seemed a reasonable option.
Someone was asking me on here at weekend if the Newstatesman article about the state of the Labour campaign (the reality not the YouGov version), was online:
Am on a university campus today, totally deserted. Interesting to know how having the GE this week rather than last will have effected things.
Has that spread the cultists wider where they make more of an impact, will it effect turn-out as they have gone on holidays, have they registered in the right place, etc etc etc
It's only 1430. Most of the students won't be out of bed yet.
Folks, after many years on the site and dabbling in betting on both bookies and backing bets on the exchanges, can I ask a real newbie question.
If I lay "Labour most seats" on the Betfair exchange for say £10 at odds of 14.5, my winnings if Labour aren't most seats are a tenner, and my liability if they are is 14.5 x £10.
I know it is obvious, but I just want to be absolutely sure before I take up what looks to be almost free money?
Thanks.
Robin
Correct, though Betfair would show your liability as £135 (£145 minus your original £10 stake) as you have already given them your stake
It might be, some people there are rich enough to vote for Labour's madness I guess.
What I do find rather mad is the unstated supposition that a Labour government whose leadership greatly admires actual and former socialist regimes around the world that rely on the apparatus of state to repress democratic opposition; which has long associated with terrorist organisations which use the bomb rather than the ballot box; which would also have a Chancellor who has called explicitly for the "street politics" of mob rule to mobilise; and which harbours a number of close advisers from various Stalinist and other Communist political cultures, could easily be removed from office by electoral defeat in 2022 if it won tomorrow?
Just as a matter of interest, why does anyone assume that would happen?
Because this is Britain. We would even survive Corbyn. Poorer, more ragged and divided perhaps but we would survive.
I'm not so sure. We have lately heard demands, for the first time in my experience, that old people should be disenfranchised because they voted for Brexit and won't live to see the consequences.
McDonnell calls for riots whenever something he disapproves of occurs. Corbyn admires Venezuela and thugs generally. Why would he not use a majority to abolish general elections?
Nothing in Kinnock's or Brown's past suggested that they'd contemplate this. But Corbyn's? Really? He'd relinquish power just like that?
What support did you give Kinnock or Brown, Alice? Or Blair or Miliband for that matter.
I'm a Centreist, you see, and I need to understand why the centre in British politics has collapsed. My recollection is that the Conservative Party and most of its supporters were every bit as vituperative towards them as they are now towards Corbyn.
County of Cumbria Prediction: Carlisle Con hold maj 5,000 Pen and Border Con hold maj 18,000 Copeland Con gain (lab 2015, Con by election 2017) maj 3,500 Workington Con possible gain, margin of error either way Barrow Con gain 4,000 Westmorland can't call. Would love for a win, but don't have further info.
In 2009 the cons only had one seat in the county, on Friday they could possibly have all six.
FWIW
Carlisle Con hold Penrith Con hold Copeland Labour regain by around 500 Workington Lab hold Barrow Con gain Westmorland LD hold easily
I would find it unlikely we will find a labour gain of Copeland. The labour candidate lost her county seat only a few weeks go. Party efforts of lab and Con are been concentrated in Workington, I only assume they've both correctly worked out where the line is.
Am on a university campus today, totally deserted. Interesting to know how having the GE this week rather than last will have effected things.
Has that spread the cultists wider where they make more of an impact, will it effect turn-out as they have gone on holidays, have they registered in the right place, etc etc etc
It's only 1430. Most of the students won't be out of bed yet.
Ha, these days not true. I have been informed they have left for the year when I remarked how quiet it was.
Someone was asking me on here at weekend if the Newstatesman article about the state of the Labour campaign (the reality not the YouGov version), was online:
There is definitely a way forward if both sides of Labour want it. Corbyn has surprised me and many others with his campaigning style - and he has clearly demonstrated that a positive, redistributive message can be successful (even if the Labour manifesto itself is not that redistributive). He has also taught all of us not to worry about the right wing press - something that has really held Labour back in the past. However, what is also clear is that for the Labour message to really get through, it has to be delivered by someone who is seen as strong on security and patriotism. And this is where Corbyn falls down, as do McDonnell, Abbott and others: their baggage, accumulated over many years, is undoubtedly off-putting to voters who value patriotism and prioritise security. So, a Labour leader who is strong on defence and comfortable with the Union Jack would have huge freedom to pitch the left-wing policies that so matter to Labour members. I cannot believe that this does not form the basis of a way forward for the party.
I think that the positive spirit of the campaign has brought a lot of people on the different wings of the Labour movement togther in a way that seemed a bit unlikely some weeks ago. As a Corbynite I appreciate Southam's generous open-minedness and I think that the scenario he describes is quite possible. Similarly, the idea of a centrist split seems to have receded sharply.
Of course, it will be easier if we don't get stuffed tomorrow! (No, this isn't an admission of anything - I genuinely have little clue what's going to happen.)
I'm not sure about the two sides being brought together. There have been similar noises in the press about a leadership challenge as there were before the one that did happen, and the last one is still sore for a lot of people. If Labour HQ and the PLP go all in again - expelling thousands for silly reasons and lumping them together with the anti-semites to the media as justification, forcing supporters to pay extra again, changing the rules of the election to make sure even more don't get to vote, etc., I think we could easily end up splitting.
Labour now has two potentially viable projects, but they face in opposite directions - SDP Macron media-machine or Corbyn-esque movement politics. Maybe neither can develop while still tied to the other.
According to PA the LibDem battle bus has had to retire from the field because someone has written Vote Labour across the back of it.
Where was Farron when this happened?
Trying to stop Vince Cable spraying it ....
Whilst this is funny, it also underlines some of the unpleasantness of this and the 2015 campaign. The respect from the "Momentum youth" to other points of view is very very low. We see it on social media, on defaced signs and on the back of the Lib Dem bus.
I fear they are not democrats nor do they respect the process. There will be anguish from them after Friday and I wouldn't be surprised at pockets of physical unrest sadly.
Am on a university campus today, totally deserted. Interesting to know how having the GE this week rather than last will have effected things.
Has that spread the cultists wider where they make more of an impact, will it effect turn-out as they have gone on holidays, have they registered in the right place, etc etc etc
It's only 1430. Most of the students won't be out of bed yet.
Ha, these days not true. I have been informed they have left for the year when I remarked how quiet it was.
It might be, some people there are rich enough to vote for Labour's madness I guess.
What I do find rather mad is the unstated supposition that a Labour government whose leadership greatly admires actual and former socialist regimes around the world that rely on the apparatus of state to repress democratic opposition; which has long associated with terrorist organisations which use the bomb rather than the ballot box; which would also have a Chancellor who has called explicitly for the "street politics" of mob rule to mobilise; and which harbours a number of close advisers from various Stalinist and other Communist political cultures, could easily be removed from office by electoral defeat in 2022 if it won tomorrow?
Just as a matter of interest, why does anyone assume that would happen?
Because this is Britain. We would even survive Corbyn. Poorer, more ragged and divided perhaps but we would survive.
I'm not so sure. We have lately heard demands, for the first time in my experience, that old people should be disenfranchised because they voted for Brexit and won't live to see the consequences.
McDonnell calls for riots whenever something he disapproves of occurs. Corbyn admires Venezuela and thugs generally. Why would he not use a majority to abolish general elections?
Nothing in Kinnock's or Brown's past suggested that they'd contemplate this. But Corbyn's? Really? He'd relinquish power just like that?
We have a deeply entrenched democracy with bloody minded independent judges who don't do as they are told (as Theresa found all too recently). The Labour party is also full with decent, democracy loving people who would not stand for such a thing. A patina of dirt on the top is not enough to change that. It will be gone soon enough.
Folks, after many years on the site and dabbling in betting on both bookies and backing bets on the exchanges, can I ask a real newbie question.
If I lay "Labour most seats" on the Betfair exchange for say £10 at odds of 14.5, my winnings if Labour aren't most seats are a tenner, and my liability if they are is 14.5 x £10.
I know it is obvious, but I just want to be absolutely sure before I take up what looks to be almost free money?
Thanks.
Robin
Correct, though Betfair would show your liability as £135 (£145 minus your original £10 stake) as you have already given them your stake
Many thanks. Whilst the returns are lower than spotting odds on gems and backing them, the risk is correspondingly lower with laying these kind of bets it seems...
Am on a university campus today, totally deserted. Interesting to know how having the GE this week rather than couple of weeks ago will have effected things.
Has that spread the cultists wider where they make more of an impact, will it effect turn-out as they have gone on holidays, have they registered in the right place, etc etc etc
They are all out knocking on doors and canvassing, thanks to a highly-organized ground operation from Momentum.
On Topic I dont get why punters are inflating Libdem Seat prospects. In England its very simple, Libdems averaging 8%, the same as 2015 while Labour & Tories are substantially up. The Libdems will lose Seats in England - my guess would be down from 7 to 4. That may be offset by gains in Scotland, possibly; but even 2 Gains would still leave the overall Libdem total at 7, down 1. My actual "prediction" is a Libdem total of 5 MPs, 9 would see us punching the air, in a non-violent way.
Cable has a good chance in Twickenham. Its full of remainers and he'll get the Labour support that deserted him in 2015. Having said that Tania Matthias is quite popular so I hope she can prevail.
Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.
On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.
Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.
Remain voters were termed Remoaners after their reaction to defeat.
What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?
rioters
I do have some concern that we might get a bit of a backlash on the streets if the Tories win big tomorrow. I suspect there are a lot of Corbynistas out there who genuinely think they are going to win a majority based on FB, Twitter, etc and supported by the YouGov polling. The Standard's story about it being close may be clever tactically but it might bring the media into further disrepute. Not to mention bringing out the conspiracy theorists...
Before complacency sets in and we all dismiss YouGov and Survation... what if FB, Instagram and Twitter have become the most efficient GOTV motivators in history? If that were the case, then the youth voting surge could be real. So, come on curmudgeons (or those of you not wise enough to have voted already) get out the oldie vote and show those youngsters how to jive with Theresa!
I don't really partake in any of those platforms, but presumably the 'stay-at-home yoof' phenomenon has been widely aired on them, by Jezza's followers if no one else. If they now realize their vote might genuinely make a difference, why shouldn't that be a huge motivator?
Remain voters were termed Remoaners after their reaction to defeat.
What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?
rioters
I do have some concern that we might get a bit of a backlash on the streets if the Tories win big tomorrow. I suspect there are a lot of Corbynistas out there who genuinely think they are going to win a majority based on FB, Twitter, etc and supported by the YouGov polling. The Standard's story about it being close may be clever tactically but it might bring the media into further disrepute. Not to mention bringing out the conspiracy theorists...
There will be a few unsavoury scenes at election counts I imagine. Ultimately the angriest types will be stuck firmly behind their keyboards.
Backed with a tiny sum Con majority 150-174 on Betfair Exchange at 26, largely because I wanted a slight upside hedge if the blues got more than 399 seats, and that seemed a reasonable option.
It goes against the polls and the predictions on this web forum but I think a Tory majority of 150 -200 very possible.
These YouGov and Survation polls simply don't add up – the mood music is very bad for Labour.
Either Labour have executed the most elegant and expertly delivered reverse-ramping GOTV operation in British political history, or YG and Survation are cannon fodder pollsters.
I suspect the latter is the case and Labour, YouGov and Survation are screwed.
Latest YouGov there has Canterbury as leaning Labour. Still available at 20/1 and 25/1 in places.
Tory since 1879 !
I think it is more like a 100-1 Lab shot personally.
Thornberry visited last Friday. Perhaps she believes they are on the verge of overturning a 18.3% majority.
As a Kent resident I think it's complete bobbins. There is a big student population in Canterbury but probably 20% of that comprises overseas students. In any case, not all students live within the constituency boundaries.
The YouGov model is interesting can't be taken seriously as a predictive tool in its present form.
Before complacency sets in and we all dismiss YouGov and Survation... what if FB, Instagram and Twitter have become the most efficient GOTV motivators in history? If that were the case, then the youth voting surge could be real. So, come on curmudgeons (or those of you not wise enough to have voted already) get out the oldie vote and show those youngsters how to jive with Theresa!
I don't really partake in any of those platforms, but presumably the 'stay-at-home yoof' phenomenon has been widely aired on them, by Jezza's followers if no one else. If they now realize their vote might genuinely make a difference, why shouldn't that be a huge motivator?
My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.
Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)
Unfortunately not. (Those who applied for a proxy vote can show up at the polling station if they change their mind). A postal vote can however be taken to the polling station on polling day if it's too late to post it. I don't know if there's any way of getting hold of an emergency postal vote between now and 10pm tomorrow. That would be the only option.
Remain voters were termed Remoaners after their reaction to defeat.
What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?
rioters
I do have some concern that we might get a bit of a backlash on the streets if the Tories win big tomorrow. I suspect there are a lot of Corbynistas out there who genuinely think they are going to win a majority based on FB, Twitter, etc and supported by the YouGov polling. The Standard's story about it being close may be clever tactically but it might bring the media into further disrepute. Not to mention bringing out the conspiracy theorists...
I agree. There are going to be some incredibly disappointed and angry people on Friday morning.
I suspect we will be hearing the phrase: "But what about all those crowds, surely he has won?" rather a lot.
These YouGov and Survation polls simply don't add up – the mood music is very bad for Labour.
Either Labour have executed the most elegant and expertly delivered reverse-ramping GOTV operation in British political history, or YG and Survation are cannon fodder pollsters.
I suspect the latter is the case and Labour, YouGov and Survation are screwed.
Latest YouGov there has Canterbury as leaning Labour. Still available at 20/1 and 25/1 in places.
Tory since 1879 !
I think it is more like a 100-1 Lab shot personally.
Thornberry visited last Friday. Perhaps she believes they are on the verge of overturning a 18.3% majority.
As a Kent resident I think it's complete bobbins. There is a big student population in Canterbury but probably 20% of that comprises overseas students. In any case, not all students live within the constituency boundaries.
The YouGov model is interesting can't be taken seriously as a predictive tool in its present form.
Am on a university campus today, totally deserted. Interesting to know how having the GE this week rather than last will have effected things.
Has that spread the cultists wider where they make more of an impact, will it effect turn-out as they have gone on holidays, have they registered in the right place, etc etc etc
It's only 1430. Most of the students won't be out of bed yet.
Ha, these days not true. I have been informed they have left for the year when I remarked how quiet it was.
Very few universities are still in term; and those that are will be towards the end of the exam period.
My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.
Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)
No. Phone your local council immediately. She can go down in person and get a new ballot paper which she can fill in and hand back.
Thank you.
I'll tell her son that they need to contact the council.
She's depressed about it all and is saying she doesn't think she wants to bother now the postal vote hasn't arrived... But she's voted in every election since 1945 so we think it'd be a shame if she missed out.
Backed with a tiny sum Con majority 150-174 on Betfair Exchange at 26, largely because I wanted a slight upside hedge if the blues got more than 399 seats, and that seemed a reasonable option.
It goes against the polls and the predictions on this web forum but I think a Tory majority of 150 -200 very possible.
I have covered 50 majority through to 174 majority with 75-149 majority being my sweet spot.
I do think it might be closer to 50 than 100 in reality, but I'd be shocked and gutted if it was less than 50, after all that probably only requires a net gain of 15 seats from Labour.
My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.
Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)
Unfortunately not. (Those who applied for a proxy vote can show up at the polling station if they change their mind). A postal vote can however be taken to the polling station on polling day if it's too late to post it. I don't know if there's any way of getting hold of an emergency postal vote between now and 10pm tomorrow.
Remain voters were termed Remoaners after their reaction to defeat.
What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?
rioters
I do have some concern that we might get a bit of a backlash on the streets if the Tories win big tomorrow. I suspect there are a lot of Corbynistas out there who genuinely think they are going to win a majority based on FB, Twitter, etc and supported by the YouGov polling. The Standard's story about it being close may be clever tactically but it might bring the media into further disrepute. Not to mention bringing out the conspiracy theorists...
I agree. There are going to be some incredibly disappointed and angry people on Friday morning.
I suspect we will be hearing the phrase: "But what about all those crowds, surely he has won?" rather a lot.
Or "But what about Messina's data pool, surely she has won?"
Spent yesterday in Brooklyn and Queens with a friend and her daughter looking at apartments for said child. Saw only 1 in arab dress the entire day. Nobody in head scarves etc. I was quite surprised. Plenty of foreign accents but all western dress.
On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.
Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.
It's the same in many other cities like Toronto, Sydney, Melbourne, Rome. Only in Britain, France, Belgium do you tend to see a lot of women in burkas, niqabs, etc.
Remain voters were termed Remoaners after their reaction to defeat.
What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?
rioters
I do have some concern that we might get a bit of a backlash on the streets if the Tories win big tomorrow. I suspect there are a lot of Corbynistas out there who genuinely think they are going to win a majority based on FB, Twitter, etc and supported by the YouGov polling. The Standard's story about it being close may be clever tactically but it might bring the media into further disrepute. Not to mention bringing out the conspiracy theorists...
My guess is, there will probably be mostly peaceful demonstrations, singing, dancing, families, etc. There might be a few of the type who turn up to everything on the off-chance they can knock some bins over, but the vast majority of the people who have been at these Corbyn rallies are not potential rioters. I'm expecting 'let's use this energy to prepare for next time, and anyway there might be another snap election if Brexit talks fail to look ahead to' to be the mood, as it always is.
My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.
Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)
No. Phone your local council immediately. She can go down in person and get a new ballot paper which she can fill in and hand back.
Thank you.
I'll tell her son that they need to contact the council.
She's depressed about it all and is saying she doesn't think she wants to bother now the postal vote hasn't arrived... But she's voted in every election since 1945 so we think it'd be a shame if she missed out.
There must be a mechanism in place for when postal ballots get lost, surely?
Betfair Majority just moved within last minute - towards Con.
New info?
Not really - it's been coming in slowly all morning. As has Tory most seats. 1.22 & 1.07 now respectively.
I got on at 1.28 (on Monday night, I think) and I'm not cashing out yet...
I'm 1.31, 1.28 and 1.24 and will stop there pending JackW....
To be honest I couldn't believe it was still drifting out on Monday; 1.15 given the polls might have been reasonable but all the other mood music is going in one direction - at the moment, I hasten to add!!
My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.
Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)
Unfortunately not. (Those who applied for a proxy vote can show up at the polling station if they change their mind). A postal vote can however be taken to the polling station on polling day if it's too late to post it. I don't know if there's any way of getting hold of an emergency postal vote between now and 10pm tomorrow. That would be the only option.
According to PA the LibDem battle bus has had to retire from the field because someone has written Vote Labour across the back of it.
Where was Farron when this happened?
Trying to stop Vince Cable spraying it ....
Whilst this is funny, it also underlines some of the unpleasantness of this and the 2015 campaign. The respect from the "Momentum youth" to other points of view is very very low. We see it on social media, on defaced signs and on the back of the Lib Dem bus.
I fear they are not democrats nor do they respect the process. There will be anguish from them after Friday and I wouldn't be surprised at pockets of physical unrest sadly.
Well, this is what I have been getting at. There's no regard for democracy in evidence; why would giving them power change that?
My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.
Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)
No. Phone your local council immediately. She can go down in person and get a new ballot paper which she can fill in and hand back.
Thank you.
I'll tell her son that they need to contact the council.
She's depressed about it all and is saying she doesn't think she wants to bother now the postal vote hasn't arrived... But she's voted in every election since 1945 so we think it'd be a shame if she missed out.
There must be a mechanism in place for when postal ballots get lost, surely?
IIRC local Labour Party officials fill it out for you
Folks, after many years on the site and dabbling in betting on both bookies and backing bets on the exchanges, can I ask a real newbie question.
If I lay "Labour most seats" on the Betfair exchange for say £10 at odds of 14.5, my winnings if Labour aren't most seats are a tenner, and my liability if they are is 14.5 x £10.
I know it is obvious, but I just want to be absolutely sure before I take up what looks to be almost free money?
Thanks.
Robin
Correct, though Betfair would show your liability as £135 (£145 minus your original £10 stake) as you have already given them your stake
Yes it will show as £135, but that's because that's what it is.
14.5 is 13.5 to 1. They are putting in the "1" (£10) you are putting in the "13.5" (£135). Betfair will take all £135 out your account.
My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.
Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)
Unfortunately not. (Those who applied for a proxy vote can show up at the polling station if they change their mind). A postal vote can however be taken to the polling station on polling day if it's too late to post it. I don't know if there's any way of getting hold of an emergency postal vote between now and 10pm tomorrow. That would be the only option.
So if the postal vote arrives tomorrow she's be able to take it to the polling station?
Yes, but if possible it would be best not to rely on the post to get hold of it (ironically). If there's anyone who can go to the council and get one, that would be better.
My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.
Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)
Unfortunately not. (Those who applied for a proxy vote can show up at the polling station if they change their mind). A postal vote can however be taken to the polling station on polling day if it's too late to post it. I don't know if there's any way of getting hold of an emergency postal vote between now and 10pm tomorrow. That would be the only option.
So if the postal vote arrives tomorrow she's be able to take it to the polling station?
Yes, but if possible it would be best not to rely on the post to get hold of it (ironically). If there's anyone who can go to the council and get one, that would be better.
OK, I'll tell my uncle (her son) to pop over to the council.
My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.
Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)
Unfortunately not. (Those who applied for a proxy vote can show up at the polling station if they change their mind). A postal vote can however be taken to the polling station on polling day if it's too late to post it. I don't know if there's any way of getting hold of an emergency postal vote between now and 10pm tomorrow. That would be the only option.
Will you still be saying this about the press and manifesto if there is a Tory landside tomorrow?
? My post doesn't say anything about the press and manifesto, it was about something different. Were you talking to Southam?
FWIW my view is that the press will ALWAYS portray Labour as a disaster. I remember the Mail saying before one of Blair's wins that if Britain re-elected Labour it would be the last free election ever, and whatever one thinks of Blair, he can't reasonably be portrayed as a left-wing extremist. So we may as well stand up for what we think and argue the case, rather than apologetically creep around pretendintg to be not as bad as they say.
Remain voters were termed Remoaners after their reaction to defeat.
What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?
rioters
I do have some concern that we might get a bit of a backlash on the streets if the Tories win big tomorrow. I suspect there are a lot of Corbynistas out there who genuinely think they are going to win a majority based on FB, Twitter, etc and supported by the YouGov polling. The Standard's story about it being close may be clever tactically but it might bring the media into further disrepute. Not to mention bringing out the conspiracy theorists...
My guess is, there will probably be mostly peaceful demonstrations, singing, dancing, families, etc. There might be a few of the type who turn up to everything on the off-chance they can knock some bins over, but the vast majority of the people who have been at these Corbyn rallies are not potential rioters. I'm expecting 'let's use this energy to prepare for next time, and anyway there might be another snap election if Brexit talks fail to look ahead to' to be the mood, as it always is.
Caitlin Moran seems to have decided to get the abuse in early.
My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.
Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)
Unfortunately not. (Those who applied for a proxy vote can show up at the polling station if they change their mind). A postal vote can however be taken to the polling station on polling day if it's too late to post it. I don't know if there's any way of getting hold of an emergency postal vote between now and 10pm tomorrow. That would be the only option.
So if the postal vote arrives tomorrow she's be able to take it to the polling station?
Yes, but if possible it would be best not to rely on the post to get hold of it (ironically). If there's anyone who can go to the council and get one, that would be better.
OK, I'll tell my uncle (her son) to pop over to the council.
Tell him to ring them first, he might need to take a declaration from her as well has her ID.
Will you still be saying this about the press and manifesto if there is a Tory landside tomorrow?
? My post doesn't say anything about the press and manifesto, it was about something different. Were you talking to Southam?
FWIW my view is that the press will ALWAYS portray Labour as a disaster. I remember the Mail saying before one of Blair's wins that if Britain re-elected Labour it would be the last free election ever, and whatever one thinks of Blair, he can't reasonably be portrayed as a left-wing extremist. So we may as well stand up for what we think and argue the case, rather than apologetically creep around pretendintg to be not as bad as they say.
The Sun does though, from time to time back Labour. Still has alot of Labour readers.
What have I missed? Has Lord Sugar become a PB Tory while I've been gone?
I remember when Lord Sugar labelled Blair and Brown as "New Conservative" in about 2001.
Are there any recent examples of businessmen/reality TV stars flirting with different political parties over a period of a few years, and what has happened to them next?
Will you still be saying this about the press and manifesto if there is a Tory landside tomorrow?
? My post doesn't say anything about the press and manifesto, it was about something different. Were you talking to Southam?
FWIW my view is that the press will ALWAYS portray Labour as a disaster. I remember the Mail saying before one of Blair's wins that if Britain re-elected Labour it would be the last free election ever, and whatever one thinks of Blair, he can't reasonably be portrayed as a left-wing extremist. So we may as well stand up for what we think and argue the case, rather than apologetically creep around pretendintg to be not as bad as they say.
Remain voters were termed Remoaners after their reaction to defeat.
What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?
rioters
I do have some concern that we might get a bit of a backlash on the streets if the Tories win big tomorrow. I suspect there are a lot of Corbynistas out there who genuinely think they are going to win a majority based on FB, Twitter, etc and supported by the YouGov polling. The Standard's story about it being close may be clever tactically but it might bring the media into further disrepute. Not to mention bringing out the conspiracy theorists...
My guess is, there will probably be mostly peaceful demonstrations, singing, dancing, families, etc. There might be a few of the type who turn up to everything on the off-chance they can knock some bins over, but the vast majority of the people who have been at these Corbyn rallies are not potential rioters. I'm expecting 'let's use this energy to prepare for next time, and anyway there might be another snap election if Brexit talks fail to look ahead to' to be the mood, as it always is.
Caitlin Moran seems to have decided to get the abuse in early.
Just in case, I suppose.
She'll be aiming it at Corbyn supporters come Friday.
Remain voters were termed Remoaners after their reaction to defeat.
What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?
rioters
I do have some concern that we might get a bit of a backlash on the streets if the Tories win big tomorrow. I suspect there are a lot of Corbynistas out there who genuinely think they are going to win a majority based on FB, Twitter, etc and supported by the YouGov polling. The Standard's story about it being close may be clever tactically but it might bring the media into further disrepute. Not to mention bringing out the conspiracy theorists...
My guess is, there will probably be mostly peaceful demonstrations, singing, dancing, families, etc. There might be a few of the type who turn up to everything on the off-chance they can knock some bins over, but the vast majority of the people who have been at these Corbyn rallies are not potential rioters. I'm expecting 'let's use this energy to prepare for next time, and anyway there might be another snap election if Brexit talks fail to look ahead to' to be the mood, as it always is.
Caitlin Moran seems to have decided to get the abuse in early.
Just in case, I suppose.
She'll be aiming it at Corbyn supporters come Friday.
Last I heard from her, she was apologising for voting for Corbyn as leader. As he had turned out to be useless. That was only about three weeks ago.
Suppose YouGov etc. are right and we do get a hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party. Presumably Boris would replace Theresa and we'd be having another election in September.
Well any less than 313 and there's a real chance Corbyn becomes PM in the short-run.
313 is magic number because there is literally zero chance of DUP/UUP allowing Corbyn to become PM.
If Corbyn could become PM in short-run he would have much bigger chance of winning another GE in Autumn as he would behave responsibly and people would get used to concept.
So vital for Con that they get 313 - then if May resigns whoever replaces her takes over as PM and goes into 2nd GE as PM.
I disagree with that. Corbyn was leading Labour into disaster before the election because he was and is so useless at the bread and butter of politics: in parliament, managing a party, knowing the detail of policy. All that would be magnified in government and it wouldn't look pretty. Furthermore, the big advantage he's had this time - campaigning as an outsider - would be much harder to recapture when sullied with the realities and compromises of power (or the failures and humiliations resulting from the refusal to compromise).
I agree about the NI MPs and if a Tory-led government is the only viable option then that's what must be but if the Tory total drops below 310 or so, then May should resign the government before resigning herself, and recommend that HM call on Corbyn.
Remain voters were termed Remoaners after their reaction to defeat.
What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?
rioters
I do have some concern that we might get a bit of a backlash on the streets if the Tories win big tomorrow. I suspect there are a lot of Corbynistas out there who genuinely think they are going to win a majority based on FB, Twitter, etc and supported by the YouGov polling. The Standard's story about it being close may be clever tactically but it might bring the media into further disrepute. Not to mention bringing out the conspiracy theorists...
My guess is, there will probably be mostly peaceful demonstrations, singing, dancing, families, etc. There might be a few of the type who turn up to everything on the off-chance they can knock some bins over, but the vast majority of the people who have been at these Corbyn rallies are not potential rioters. I'm expecting 'let's use this energy to prepare for next time, and anyway there might be another snap election if Brexit talks fail to look ahead to' to be the mood, as it always is.
Caitlin Moran seems to have decided to get the abuse in early.
Just in case, I suppose.
She'll be aiming it at Corbyn supporters come Friday.
Last I heard from her, she was apologising for voting for Corbyn as leader. As he had turned out to be useless. That was only about three weeks ago.
On Topic I dont get why punters are inflating Libdem Seat prospects. In England its very simple, Libdems averaging 8%, the same as 2015 while Labour & Tories are substantially up. The Libdems will lose Seats in England - my guess would be down from 7 to 4. That may be offset by gains in Scotland, possibly; but even 2 Gains would still leave the overall Libdem total at 7, down 1. My actual "prediction" is a Libdem total of 5 MPs, 9 would see us punching the air, in a non-violent way.
Intrigued as to which the four would be? W&L, obviously. But then which? There are potential gains to be made even among further losses.
I think the reason people with postal votes can't vote at the polling station is that it's too difficult to check that they haven't voted twice, whereas it's easy with proxy votes because they get ticked off the same register as ordinary voters.
Blimey does Nicola look awkward there or what. The bar is not a high one but that looks like the best "gotcha" moment I have seen in any of the debates in this cycle. And to get them both at once...class.
So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.
It might be, some people there are rich enough to vote for Labour's madness I guess.
What I do find rather mad is the unstated supposition that a Labour government whose leadership greatly admires actual and former socialist regimes around the world that rely on the apparatus of state to repress democratic opposition; which has long associated with terrorist organisations which use the bomb rather than the ballot box; which would also have a Chancellor who has called explicitly for the "street politics" of mob rule to mobilise; and which harbours a number of close advisers from various Stalinist and other Communist political cultures, could easily be removed from office by electoral defeat in 2022 if it won tomorrow?
Just as a matter of interest, why does anyone assume that would happen?
Because this is Britain. We would even survive Corbyn. Poorer, more ragged and divided perhaps but we would survive.
I'm not so sure. We have lately heard demands, for the first time in my experience, that old people should be disenfranchised because they voted for Brexit and won't live to see the consequences.
McDonnell calls for riots whenever something he disapproves of occurs. Corbyn admires Venezuela and thugs generally. Why would he not use a majority to abolish general elections?
Nothing in Kinnock's or Brown's past suggested that they'd contemplate this. But Corbyn's? Really? He'd relinquish power just like that?
The Queen still has the power to appoint and dismiss prime ministers. In extremis, such powers could be deployed: it's the whole rationale for keeping what is effectively a political nuclear deterrent. Of course, Corbyn doesn't believe in nuclear deterrents.
However, even if he tried to do it - and I don't for a moment think he would - he'd still need the vast majority of Labour MPs to troop in alongside him, which is surely extremely unlikely. Not only are they attached to the concepts of human rights but there's also the practical matter that if you take such a move and fail, you invite a retaliation as 'an enemy of the people'.
Britain would survive Corbyn but it'd take four years to put right every one he spent in office.
I think the reason people with postal votes can't vote at the polling station is that it's too difficult to check that they haven't voted twice, whereas it's easy with proxy votes because they get ticked off the same register as ordinary voters.
They can just take their vote to the polling station and hand it in. Obviously they can't be given another ballot paper because they have one already.
Significant that May is back to Stoke for the second time because she thought she had 2 bankers as gains in Stoke in the bag.Things have changed since she last came-the veneer has shone off and Stokies are seeing through her.Ladbrokes are a stand out 11-8 for the North and Betfred are best priced at 7-2 for the South for Labour holds.May looks weak and nervous.There could still be plenty of red on the map in Stoke.
So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.
Perhaps if the public were't warned at such absurd levels (x hours to save the NHS) they might listen?
I suggest the stockmarket will have a small boost if May gets a good majority.
Up until now some share prices might have been getting a bit fidgety - relative to what they would otherwise be.
Spent some time with Investec Wealth this morning.
In their view the market is pricing in 80 - 120 seat majority for the Tories; GS predicted 88 this morning.
Little upside if true; if Corbyn wins the market will be "surprised" - FTSE 100 will be ok (butressed by collapsing sterling) but FTSE250 will be slammed
So, another four or five years of the Tories. The NHS is going to have to make some very unpleasant changes, which will principally affect older people. This isn't electioneering or scaremongering, this is me saying don't say you weren't warned.
We have a situation where demand for health services is growing 4% a year in an economy that isn't. Anyone who tries to pretend that that is not a problem whoever is in government is just dishonest.
It might be, some people there are rich enough to vote for Labour's madness I guess.
What I do find rather mad is the unstated supposition that a Labour government whose leadership greatly admires actual and former socialist regimes around the world that rely on the apparatus of state to repress democratic opposition; which has long associated with terrorist organisations which use the bomb rather than the ballot box; which would also have a Chancellor who has called explicitly for the "street politics" of mob rule to mobilise; and which harbours a number of close advisers from various Stalinist and other Communist political cultures, could easily be removed from office by electoral defeat in 2022 if it won tomorrow?
Just as a matter of interest, why does anyone assume that would happen?
Because this is Britain. We would even survive Corbyn. Poorer, more ragged and divided perhaps but we would survive.
I'm not so sure. We have lately heard demands, for the first time in my experience, that old people should be disenfranchised because they voted for Brexit and won't live to see the consequences.
McDonnell calls for riots whenever something he disapproves of occurs. Corbyn admires Venezuela and thugs generally. Why would he not use a majority to abolish general elections?
Nothing in Kinnock's or Brown's past suggested that they'd contemplate this. But Corbyn's? Really? He'd relinquish power just like that?
What support did you give Kinnock or Brown, Alice? Or Blair or Miliband for that matter.
I'm a Centreist, you see, and I need to understand why the centre in British politics has collapsed. My recollection is that the Conservative Party and most of its supporters were every bit as vituperative towards them as they are now towards Corbyn.
Indeed so. There is a whole load of pious rubbish written about this, from our Tory friends. Now Corbyn might 'deserve' what he's getting from Crosby/Murdoch/Dacre etc. But were he not in charge, they would sling the mud regardless. Remember the London mayoral campaign? The attacks on Khan were disgusting. Remember the Daily Mail featuring a picture of Ralph Miliband's grave? The idea that the nasty rightwing press and the odious Crosby would let up in the face of a moderate Labour leader simply isn't borne out by the reality of past races.
I suggest the stockmarket will have a small boost if May gets a good majority.
Up until now some share prices might have been getting a bit fidgety - relative to what they would otherwise be.
Spent some time with Investec Wealth this morning.
In their view the market is pricing in 80 - 120 seat majority for the Tories; GS predicted 88 this morning.
Little upside if true; if Corbyn wins the market will be "surprised" - FTSE 100 will be ok (butressed by collapsing sterling) but FTSE250 will be slammed
Given their record last June, I'm not sure I have much faith in the predictions of the City!
Comments
If I lay "Labour most seats" on the Betfair exchange for say £10 at odds of 14.5, my winnings if Labour aren't most seats are a tenner, and my liability if they are is 14.5 x £10.
I know it is obvious, but I just want to be absolutely sure before I take up what looks to be almost free money?
Thanks.
Robin
Not sure what any of your points are. To the extent that Christianity is a driver for crusades and burnings-at-the-stake and such, it is as despicable as any other religion which does the same (and that goes for those Sun God guys in Apocalypse). The book of Revelations doesn't exhort anyone to kill anyone else and if it did it would be wrong to do so. And if you think you are scoring a tit for tat point because I am a Christian - I am not.
Carlisle Con hold
Penrith Con hold
Copeland Labour regain by around 500
Workington Lab hold
Barrow Con gain
Westmorland LD hold easily
Has that spread the cultists wider where they make more of an impact, will it effect turn-out as they have gone on holidays, have they registered in the right place, etc etc etc
I dont get why punters are inflating Libdem Seat prospects. In England its very simple, Libdems averaging 8%, the same as 2015 while Labour & Tories are substantially up. The Libdems will lose Seats in England - my guess would be down from 7 to 4.
That may be offset by gains in Scotland, possibly; but even 2 Gains would still leave the overall Libdem total at 7, down 1.
My actual "prediction" is a Libdem total of 5 MPs, 9 would see us punching the air, in a non-violent way.
It is now.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/06/labour-reckoning
I'm a Centreist, you see, and I need to understand why the centre in British politics has collapsed. My recollection is that the Conservative Party and most of its supporters were every bit as vituperative towards them as they are now towards Corbyn.
My 93 year old grandmother applied for a postal vote but it hasn't arrived in time to use for this election.
Can she still go the polling station to vote (she has her polling card which she received in the post some weeks back)
Labour now has two potentially viable projects, but they face in opposite directions - SDP Macron media-machine or Corbyn-esque movement politics. Maybe neither can develop while still tied to the other.
I fear they are not democrats nor do they respect the process. There will be anguish from them after Friday and I wouldn't be surprised at pockets of physical unrest sadly.
Oh wait...
On the bus from Manhattan (40th and 3rd) back to South Fork for the Shelter Island ferry, people were outraged at the cost - $33 for the 100 mile bus trip. It only costs $23 for the trip to North Fork - the same distance. Then someone realized the obvious - the Hamptons are on the South Fork.
Also used Uber for the 1st (2nd 3rd 4th and 5th) time. It's pretty cool.
As a Kent resident I think it's complete bobbins. There is a big student population in Canterbury but probably 20% of that comprises overseas students. In any case, not all students live within the constituency boundaries.
The YouGov model is interesting can't be taken seriously as a predictive tool in its present form.
Anyway, time for me to be off.
https://www.yourvotematters.co.uk/faq/voting-by-post
I suspect we will be hearing the phrase: "But what about all those crowds, surely he has won?" rather a lot.
I'll tell her son that they need to contact the council.
She's depressed about it all and is saying she doesn't think she wants to bother now the postal vote hasn't arrived... But she's voted in every election since 1945 so we think it'd be a shame if she missed out.
I do think it might be closer to 50 than 100 in reality, but I'd be shocked and gutted if it was less than 50, after all that probably only requires a net gain of 15 seats from Labour.
So if the postal vote arrives tomorrow she'd be able to take it to the polling station?
14.5 is 13.5 to 1. They are putting in the "1" (£10) you are putting in the "13.5" (£135). Betfair will take all £135 out your account.
Up until now some share prices might have been getting a bit fidgety - relative to what they would otherwise be.
FWIW my view is that the press will ALWAYS portray Labour as a disaster. I remember the Mail saying before one of Blair's wins that if Britain re-elected Labour it would be the last free election ever, and whatever one thinks of Blair, he can't reasonably be portrayed as a left-wing extremist. So we may as well stand up for what we think and argue the case, rather than apologetically creep around pretendintg to be not as bad as they say.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/only-winner-nicola-sturgeon-v-kezia-dugdale-ruth-davidson
Just in case, I suppose.
https://www.yourvotematters.co.uk/faq/voting-by-post
So, not confused at all.
I've been wondering whether to cover that bet with the 11/8 being offered by Ladbrokes on 6-10 seats, but I might just let it run.
I agree about the NI MPs and if a Tory-led government is the only viable option then that's what must be but if the Tory total drops below 310 or so, then May should resign the government before resigning herself, and recommend that HM call on Corbyn.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/22/labour-reduce-the-tory-lead-to-23-with-yougov-in-the-most-incredible-polling-night-i-can-remember/
5 hrs ·
Stuck in lift with Corbyn and Abbott. She can't work out what floor number, he won't press the button.
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/
However, even if he tried to do it - and I don't for a moment think he would - he'd still need the vast majority of Labour MPs to troop in alongside him, which is surely extremely unlikely. Not only are they attached to the concepts of human rights but there's also the practical matter that if you take such a move and fail, you invite a retaliation as 'an enemy of the people'.
Britain would survive Corbyn but it'd take four years to put right every one he spent in office.
http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/live-breaking-news-traffic-travel-and-weather-for-wednesday-june-7/story-30375853-detail/story.html
ComRes and YouGov for sure tonight.
In their view the market is pricing in 80 - 120 seat majority for the Tories; GS predicted 88 this morning.
Little upside if true; if Corbyn wins the market will be "surprised" - FTSE 100 will be ok (butressed by collapsing sterling) but FTSE250 will be slammed