politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first of the final polls from the most accurate online fir

HaroldO said:

kle4 said:

dixiedean said:

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.


He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter

Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.

I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.

On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.

I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.

Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.

Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.

Why on Earth would anyone do that?

I'm sure there was some piece after 2015 which suggested that some polling asked voting intention, which would overestimate Labour, but the answers to other questions in the same poll made it clear, in hindsight, that they actually would vote Tory.

I find it hard to believe a Corbyn fan online would vote Tory though.

A lot will just stay silent, and then possibly vote Tory. The loudest voices online in 2015 were Labour, in my social media circles anyway.

When canvassing first ask which issue is most important to you the voter? Then ask what they think the solution is? Then if it is worth it ask who they are going to vote for. Can I count on your support is a crap question which leads the inexperience to leave the doorstep with the wrong answer

Danny565 said:

My revised prediction:

Seats
Conservatives 344 (+13)
Labour 228 (-3)
SNP 47 (-9)
Lib Dems 9 (+1)
Others 22 (-2)
TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)

Vote Shares
Conservatives 43% +6%
Labour 35% +5%
Lib Dems 8% n/c
UKIP 3% -9%

TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North

TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
Clacton


LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6)
Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3)
Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central

LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
Leeds North West

LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
Brighton Pavilion


LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1)
Edinburgh West

I would settle for that but also hoping Chris Williamson in Derby North is a Gain too.

kle4 said:

Danny565 said:

My revised prediction:

Seats
Conservatives 344 (+13)
Labour 228 (-3)
SNP 47 (-9)
Lib Dems 9 (+1)
Others 22 (-2)
TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)

Vote Shares
Conservatives 43% +6%
Labour 35% +5%
Lib Dems 8% n/c
UKIP 3% -9%

TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North

TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
Clacton


LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6)
Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3)
Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central

LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
Leeds North West

LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
Brighton Pavilion


LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1)
Edinburgh West

Still very positive for the LDs, and Tories comparatively poorly in Scotland, compared to high predictions I see.

Plausible prediction by Danny565 - I think it will be slightly better than that for CON - mainly at expense of LD. And we won't lose Croydon C or Bury North

Not that hopeful in Brighton Kemptown!

jayfdee said:

Danny565 said:

My revised prediction:

Seats
Conservatives 344 (+13)
Labour 228 (-3)
SNP 47 (-9)
Lib Dems 9 (+1)
Others 22 (-2)
TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)

Vote Shares
Conservatives 43% +6%
Labour 35% +5%
Lib Dems 8% n/c
UKIP 3% -9%

TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North

TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
Clacton


LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6)
Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3)
Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central

LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
Leeds North West

LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
Brighton Pavilion


LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1)
Edinburgh West

Any thoughts on Lancaster and Fleetwood?

Leaning towards a Labour hold.

Think the only one of the 2015 gains that Labour will drop will be Wolverhampton SW, where the Midlands effect and lack of incumbency bonus due to Rob Marris standing down will count against them.

Alanbrooke said:

nunu said:

freetochoose said:

In 2010 Cameron got 10.7m votes increasing to 11.3m in 2015. Its clear that plenty of pb tories loathe May, for whatever reason. I'm interested what number she has to attain to get some grudging respect from them.

I don't loathe May, I am simply fustrated that she is running against the most easy opponents a Tory PM has faced er...ever, and she is still making a hash of it. The E.U is watching all this, and will think LOL she aint so tough after all.

Cameron v Brown was easier

Tory PM.

GIN1138 said:

Alistair said:

Brexit Brexit Brexit seems like a great PPB for the Tories to me. I can't understand why they haven't been hammering on it directly for the campaign rather than indirectly via strong and stable.

That is indeed the question. It shoud've been Brexit morning, noon and night (that and Jezza)

How they got themselves sidetracked by social care god only knows...

Nick Timothy's finger on the pulse of the nation...

Danny565 said:

My revised prediction:

Seats
Conservatives 344 (+13)
Labour 228 (-3)
SNP 47 (-9)
Lib Dems 9 (+1)
Others 22 (-2)
TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)

Vote Shares
Conservatives 43% +6%
Labour 35% +5%
Lib Dems 8% n/c
UKIP 3% -9%

TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North

TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
Clacton


LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6)
Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3)
Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central

LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
Leeds North West

LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
Brighton Pavilion


LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1)
Edinburgh West

Brighton Pavilion is a brave call! Struggle to see that tbh.

RobD said:

The_Apocalypse said:

RobD said:

MikeL said:

RobD said:

dixiedean said:

Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?

Wonder if that is more useful than ten thousand canvassers pounding the pavements.

Rob - you need to correct Opinium to 6 June, not 6 April!

LOL. Have I been in the US too long? Hmmmm,

You live in America?

PB Tories are everywhere... like a plague of locusts.

They don't call you the herd for nowt

midwinter said:

Danny565 said:

My revised prediction:

Seats
Conservatives 344 (+13)
Labour 228 (-3)
SNP 47 (-9)
Lib Dems 9 (+1)
Others 22 (-2)
TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)

Vote Shares
Conservatives 43% +6%
Labour 35% +5%
Lib Dems 8% n/c
UKIP 3% -9%

TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North

TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
Clacton


LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6)
Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3)
Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central

LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
Leeds North West

LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
Brighton Pavilion


LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1)
Edinburgh West

Brighton Pavilion is a brave call! Struggle to see that tbh.

All the best people are predicting that result. Danny, Lord Ashcroft, me.

Danny585 If Cardiff North is a Labour gain, I would look at Gower too. Although I am not sure either will change.

Anyway, I'll be back in London late on Thursday, if there are any Tory victory drinks on Friday I'll definitely be up for it.

Just went onto the STV website to watch the Scottish leaders' debate. Did a bit of a double-take when the big headline there was "Nasty Nicola"

Alas, that headline was referring to Emmerdale.

MaxPB said:

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.


He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter

Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.

I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.

On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.

I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.

Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.

Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.

Just had that experience lol, a friend of mine has been liking a bunch of Corbyn stuff for the last week or so. It really confused me because I know him to be fairly right wing, in the end he's started dating a Corbynite and in our private messaging he assured me he's still solid Con and once the election is over he's sure his new gf will give up on politics and go back to being normal.

What would be really funny is if the gf was only pretending to be left-wing to appear to be 'nice' to her bf...

After Brexit and Trump who would be sure of calling this election . It's a strange election because the polling often hasn't followed what you'd expect in terms of following what we perceive to be as good or bad for each party. May wins but her majority could be anything from where we are now or upto 100+..

A small anecdote some may find interesting. I have found my parents have been remarkably good bellweathers for what a certain section of the population are thinking. They are Northern WWC pensioners, not that interested in politics, watch a lot of TV and like to do things around their local areas i.e. like a lot of people. Speaking to them re the election, I had the following conclusions.

1. TM is actually really liked by a lot of people. Hard to believe that on here but my parents think she is very good and like her a lot, my Dad (especially) more than Cameron (sorry, TSE et al)

2. And it is TM, not the Conservatives. They both said they were voting for "Theresa May", not the Conservatives. That is the first time I have ever heard them refer to a party leader instead of a political party for whom they would vote. My takeaway from that was that might be the mental bridge for many ex-Labour voters to vote Conservative.

3. No sign of the upswing in JC's popularity the polls talk about. All throughout the campaign, my Dad has held the same amount of contempt for JC as he had at the beginning, although Diane Abbott has now been added to the list as well as McD.

4. Dementia tax issue has faded. A week and a half ago, I seriously thought my Dad would not vote Conservative because of his anger over the Dementia tax. But that now seems to have faded massively as an issue. Their concern now is about how awful the terror attacks have been and the need to do something concrete. Naturally, JC does not score highly with them.

5. They will lie to Labour canvassers. If ones come to the day, they trot out the line that they will vote Labour and "yes, JC is a good man" and "Tory cuts" etc etc. For their generation, and living on a council estate, you just nod your head. It is far easier and it just avoids a lot of hassle.

6. Underlying, this is all about Brexit. They voted Out. They trust TM to deliver and they do not trust JC. They want the job done and that is it.

I am sticking my neck out but I think it is conceivable the Conservatives get a 200 or more majority. I think there will be many traditional Labour voters of that ilk who will "lend" their votes to "TM" (not the Tories) to get this done. Medium-term, I think this could be an opportunity for UKIP to come back. Short-term, though, I think we are going to have some utterly shocking surprises when it comes to some traditional Labour seats.

kle4 said:

midwinter said:

Danny565 said:

My revised prediction:

Seats
Conservatives 344 (+13)
Labour 228 (-3)
SNP 47 (-9)
Lib Dems 9 (+1)
Others 22 (-2)
TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)

Vote Shares
Conservatives 43% +6%
Labour 35% +5%
Lib Dems 8% n/c
UKIP 3% -9%

TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North

TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
Clacton


LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6)
Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3)
Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central

LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
Leeds North West

LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
Brighton Pavilion


LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1)
Edinburgh West

Brighton Pavilion is a brave call! Struggle to see that tbh.

All the best people are predicting that result. Danny, Lord Ashcroft, me.

as much as I dislike Caroline Lucas, the greens have steadily built their share of the vote over a long period. since they first stood in the seat in 1992 they have always got more votes in the next election than the previous. This time may impact that but over the last 40 years or so the makeup of the seat has changed and certainly since the tories last held it.

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Pulpstar said:

Corbyn's latest rally in Birmingham Ladywood, where Labour got 73.6% of the vote last time.

interesting points

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/872140609137631233

https://twitter.com/dizzy_thinks/status/872146992004300801

U have to think these rallies are a sign of enthusiasm. Like Trump's. There will be an increase of labour share on thursday and noth just amongst the young.

These are nothing like the same scale or size or marginality of Trump's rallies.

Is your rumour London seat Chingford?

Wimbledon actually !
I've had a pound on the yellow peril ther - probably just overworries from CCHQ seeing as Twickenham is seemingly going yellow.

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

Pulpstar said:

nunu said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Pulpstar said:

Corbyn's latest rally in Birmingham Ladywood, where Labour got 73.6% of the vote last time.

interesting points

https://twitter.com/wallaceme/status/872140609137631233

https://twitter.com/dizzy_thinks/status/872146992004300801

U have to think these rallies are a sign of enthusiasm. Like Trump's. There will be an increase of labour share on thursday and noth just amongst the young.

These are nothing like the same scale or size or marginality of Trump's rallies.

Is your rumour London seat Chingford?

Wimbledon actually !
I've had a pound on the yellow peril ther - probably just overworries from CCHQ seeing as Twickenham is seemingly going yellow.

Thats must be the south london safe seat timmo was talking about. It was like 80% REMAIN.

Will take man power away from surrounding seats.

TheKitchenCabinet said:

A small anecdote some may find interesting. I have found my parents have been remarkably good bellweathers for what a certain section of the population are thinking. They are Northern WWC pensioners, not that interested in politics, watch a lot of TV and like to do things around their local areas i.e. like a lot of people. Speaking to them re the election, I had the following conclusions.

1. TM is actually really liked by a lot of people. Hard to believe that on here but my parents think she is very good and like her a lot, my Dad (especially) more than Cameron (sorry, TSE et al)

2. And it is TM, not the Conservatives. They both said they were voting for "Theresa May", not the Conservatives. That is the first time I have ever heard them refer to a party leader instead of a political party for whom they would vote. My takeaway from that was that might be the mental bridge for many ex-Labour voters to vote Conservative.

3. No sign of the upswing in JC's popularity the polls talk about. All throughout the campaign, my Dad has held the same amount of contempt for JC as he had at the beginning, although Diane Abbott has now been added to the list as well as McD.

4. Dementia tax issue has faded. A week and a half ago, I seriously thought my Dad would not vote Conservative because of his anger over the Dementia tax. But that now seems to have faded massively as an issue. Their concern now is about how awful the terror attacks have been and the need to do something concrete. Naturally, JC does not score highly with them.

5. They will lie to Labour canvassers. If ones come to the day, they trot out the line that they will vote Labour and "yes, JC is a good man" and "Tory cuts" etc etc. For their generation, and living on a council estate, you just nod your head. It is far easier and it just avoids a lot of hassle.

6. Underlying, this is all about Brexit. They voted Out. They trust TM to deliver and they do not trust JC. They want the job done and that is it.

I am sticking my neck out but I think it is conceivable the Conservatives get a 200 or more majority. I think there will be many traditional Labour voters of that ilk who will "lend" their votes to "TM" (not the Tories) to get this done. Medium-term, I think this could be an opportunity for UKIP to come back. Short-term, though, I think we are going to have some utterly shocking surprises when it comes to some traditional Labour seats.

Top analysis TY. Let's hope so! I think 200 v unlikely but 100 not impossible.

Danny565 said:

My revised prediction:

Seats
Conservatives 344 (+13)
Labour 228 (-3)
SNP 47 (-9)
Lib Dems 9 (+1)
Others 22 (-2)
TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)

Vote Shares
Conservatives 43% +6%
Labour 35% +5%
Lib Dems 8% n/c
UKIP 3% -9%

TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North

TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
Clacton


LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6)
Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3)
Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central

LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
Leeds North West

LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
Brighton Pavilion


LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1)
Edinburgh West

There's 16/1 available if you're confident Labour can take Brighton Pavilion.

asjohnstone said:

If as looks possible, we end with something close to an overall unchanged HoC with the main parties +/- 10 seats of their starting positions, will this be the most pointless election of all time ? Her "reasons" for going to the country unchanged

Has May squandered all her political capital for nothing ?

Even if that does happen, it has moved the next election back to 2022.. unless it falls in the interim.

Danny565 said:

Just went onto the STV website to watch the Scottish leaders' debate. Did a bit of a double-take when the big headline there was "Nasty Nicola"

Alas, that headline was referring to Emmerdale.

Nicola's pitch to the middle classes of Scotland was there in abundance last night - free tuition at University, would love to put taxes up but can't due to England and a social care system that means you can keep the whole value of granny's house even if she has dementia.

She'd love to be a socialist, but the nasty English won't allow her

Nicola knows where her bread is buttered with the @MalcolmG type SNP vote.

bigjohnowls said:

https://twitter.com/rascalblog/status/872123140872306690/photo/1

Kevin's a sick puppy.

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.


He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter

Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.

I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.

On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.

I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.

Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.

agreed with that-i am in a relatively safe Con seat and there are a number of middle class professional friends who want to express their anger about Brexit by voting for anyone but Conservative.

Last time out YouGov had the Tories on 280 seats and the final result was 332 seats, this time they have the Tories on 310 seats, a similar variance will see them win ~360 seats - a majority of around 70. I think that's a good place to start. The more people I speak to the more I feel that these online panels are being gamed. A Labour school friend of mine is extremely despondent that these polls are not being replicated on the door step for them, they are hoping that the people who say they are voting Labour to pollsters are just hard to reach in person because they haven't come across any significant number of them.

midwinter said:

kle4 said:

midwinter said:

Danny565 said:

My revised prediction:

Seats
Conservatives 344 (+13)
Labour 228 (-3)
SNP 47 (-9)
Lib Dems 9 (+1)
Others 22 (-2)
TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)

Vote Shares
Conservatives 43% +6%
Labour 35% +5%
Lib Dems 8% n/c
UKIP 3% -9%

TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North

TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
Clacton


LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6)
Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3)
Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central

LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
Leeds North West

LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
Brighton Pavilion


LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1)
Edinburgh West

Brighton Pavilion is a brave call! Struggle to see that tbh.

All the best people are predicting that result. Danny, Lord Ashcroft, me.

Lol. Good luck. I think people in Brighton are too proud of being different for that too happen. Be funny if they split the vote and the Tories win: though!

That would be hilarious.

hunchman said:

My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:

Tory gain from Labour (42)

Alyn & Deeside
Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock)
Birmingham Edgbaston
Birmingham Northfield
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool S
Bolton NE
Bridgend
Bristol E
Bury S
Chester
Clywd S
Copeland (hold on to by-election gain)
Coventry NW
Coventry S
Darlington
Delyn
Derbyshire NE
Dewsbury
Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron)
Dudley N
Grimsby
Halifax
Hartlepool
Hyndburn
Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today)
Mansfield
Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E
Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!)
Oldham E & Saddleworth
Penistone & Stocksbridge
Rother Valley
Scunthorpe
Southampton Test
Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss)
Wakefield
Walsall N
Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)

Tory gain from LD (1)

Carshalton & Wallington
(regain Richmond Park by-election loss)

Tory gain from UKIP (1)

Clacton

Tory gain from SNP (6)

Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfries & Galloway
Edinburgh SW
Moray
Perth & N Perthshire

LD gain from SNP (3)

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross
Edinburgh W
Fife NE

LD gain from Tory (2)

Kingston & Surbiton
Twickenham

PC gain from Labour (1)

Ynys Mon

PC gain from LD (1)

Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)

Labour gain from SNP (1)

East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)

Labour gain from LD (1)

Leeds NW

Labour gain from Tory (2)

Croydon Central
Gower

Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)

Putting this all together gives:

Tory 330 + 42 + 1 + 1 + 6 - 2 - 2 = 376
Labour 232 - 42 - 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 193
SNP 56 - 6 - 3 - 1 = 46
LD 8 - 1 + 2 - 1 - 1 + 3 = 10
Plaid 3 + 1 + 1 = 5
Green 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
UKIP 1 - 1 = 0

Tory majority 102

Thoughts?

I'd remove Coventry South and put in Workington. Coventry South has a younger and more mixed demographic. I reckon Cov NW will go actually despite being nominally the harder target.
Woodlands ward was very strong for Street in the mayorals.

hunchman said:

Putting this all together gives:

Tory 330 + 42 + 1 + 1 + 6 - 2 - 2 = 376
Labour 232 - 42 - 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 193
SNP 56 - 6 - 3 - 1 = 46
LD 8 - 1 + 2 - 1 - 1 + 3 = 10
Plaid 3 + 1 + 1 = 5
Green 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
UKIP 1 - 1 = 0

Tory majority 102

Thoughts?

Feels like a prediction from 4 weeks ago - if the surge doesn't materialise (or is far less than the last 2 weeks suggest), then it could be spot on. I am unsure about the PC gains though - I don;t know Wales, and the Tory dreams there are not as exuberant as they were at one point, but I had thought PC were not doing fantastically either.

I really struggle to see LDs in double figures - I'm only predicting 8-9 on the basis of multiple gains in Scotland- and I know some say places like Norfolk North are not goners, but so many models seem to assume it is beyond hope.

Pulpstar said:

hunchman said:

My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:

Tory gain from Labour (42)

Alyn & Deeside
Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock)
Birmingham Edgbaston
Birmingham Northfield
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool S
Bolton NE
Bridgend
Bristol E
Bury S
Chester
Clywd S
Copeland (hold on to by-election gain)
Coventry NW
Coventry S
Darlington
Delyn
Derbyshire NE
Dewsbury
Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron)
Dudley N
Grimsby
Halifax
Hartlepool
Hyndburn
Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today)
Mansfield
Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E
Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!)
Oldham E & Saddleworth
Penistone & Stocksbridge
Rother Valley
Scunthorpe
Southampton Test
Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss)
Wakefield
Walsall N
Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)

Tory gain from LD (1)

Carshalton & Wallington
(regain Richmond Park by-election loss)

Tory gain from UKIP (1)

Clacton

Tory gain from SNP (6)

Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfries & Galloway
Edinburgh SW
Moray
Perth & N Perthshire

LD gain from SNP (3)

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross
Edinburgh W
Fife NE

LD gain from Tory (2)

Kingston & Surbiton
Twickenham

PC gain from Labour (1)

Ynys Mon

PC gain from LD (1)

Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)

Labour gain from SNP (1)

East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)

Labour gain from LD (1)

Leeds NW

Labour gain from Tory (2)

Croydon Central
Gower

Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)

Putting this all together gives:

Tory 330 + 42 + 1 + 1 + 6 - 2 - 2 = 376
Labour 232 - 42 - 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 193
SNP 56 - 6 - 3 - 1 = 46
LD 8 - 1 + 2 - 1 - 1 + 3 = 10
Plaid 3 + 1 + 1 = 5
Green 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
UKIP 1 - 1 = 0

Tory majority 102

Thoughts?

I'd remove Coventry South and put in Workington. Coventry South has a younger and more mixed demographic. I reckon Cov NW will go actually despite being nominally the harder target.
Woodlands ward was very strong for Street in the mayorals.

Hunchman - I agree we will do nothing in London

Pulpstar - what's your London surprise - Hackney S? (OK one gain from LAB)

jayfdee said:

RoyalBlue said:

bigjohnowls said:

https://twitter.com/rascalblog/status/872123140872306690/photo/1

I hope the driver is alright.

I also hope the driver is OK,disgusting to make political points about an accident.

Photoshop, I'd have thought?

We (CON) will win Slough - you heard it here first!

https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/872182959322923010

hunchman said:

My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:

Tory gain from Labour (42)

Alyn & Deeside
Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock)
Birmingham Edgbaston
Birmingham Northfield
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool S
Bolton NE
Bridgend
Bristol E
Bury S
Chester
Clywd S
Copeland (hold on to by-election gain)
Coventry NW
Coventry S
Darlington
Delyn
Derbyshire NE
Dewsbury
Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron)
Dudley N
Grimsby
Halifax
Hartlepool
Hyndburn
Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today)
Mansfield
Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E
Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!)
Oldham E & Saddleworth
Penistone & Stocksbridge
Rother Valley
Scunthorpe
Southampton Test
Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss)
Wakefield
Walsall N
Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)

Tory gain from LD (1)

Carshalton & Wallington
(regain Richmond Park by-election loss)

Tory gain from UKIP (1)

Clacton

Tory gain from SNP (6)

Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfries & Galloway
Edinburgh SW
Moray
Perth & N Perthshire

LD gain from SNP (3)

Caithness, Sutherland & Ross
Edinburgh W
Fife NE

LD gain from Tory (2)

Kingston & Surbiton
Twickenham

PC gain from Labour (1)

Ynys Mon

PC gain from LD (1)

Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)

Labour gain from SNP (1)

East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)

Labour gain from LD (1)

Leeds NW

Labour gain from Tory (2)

Croydon Central
Gower

Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)

Putting this all together gives:

Tory 330 + 42 + 1 + 1 + 6 - 2 - 2 = 376
Labour 232 - 42 - 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 193
SNP 56 - 6 - 3 - 1 = 46
LD 8 - 1 + 2 - 1 - 1 + 3 = 10
Plaid 3 + 1 + 1 = 5
Green 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
UKIP 1 - 1 = 0

Tory majority 102

Thoughts?

Mostly agree, although I think the Tories will hold Gower.

MaxPB said:

Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.

I said the same thing further down, my parents do the same. Not worth the hassle, particularly if you have some spotty faced yoof from Momentum threatening to post on social media about the nasty, selfish people at 29 Mandela Drive who are voting Tory.

kle4 said:

hunchman said:

Putting this all together gives:

Tory 330 + 42 + 1 + 1 + 6 - 2 - 2 = 376
Labour 232 - 42 - 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 193
SNP 56 - 6 - 3 - 1 = 46
LD 8 - 1 + 2 - 1 - 1 + 3 = 10
Plaid 3 + 1 + 1 = 5
Green 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
UKIP 1 - 1 = 0

Tory majority 102

Thoughts?

Feels like a prediction from 4 weeks ago - if the surge doesn't materialise (or is far less than the last 2 weeks suggest), then it could be spot on. I am unsure about the PC gains though - I don;t know Wales, and the Tory dreams there are not as exuberant as they were at one point, but I had thought PC were not doing fantastically either.

I really struggle to see LDs in double figures - I'm only predicting 8-9 on the basis of multiple gains in Scotland- and I know some say places like Norfolk North are not goners, but so many models seem to assume it is beyond hope.

I'd be wary of betting against Norman Lamb. He's liked locally and the LibDems won most of the seats in the locals in may

http://elections.norfolk.gov.uk/default.aspx

ThomasNashe said:

jayfdee said:

RoyalBlue said:

bigjohnowls said:

https://twitter.com/rascalblog/status/872123140872306690/photo/1

I hope the driver is alright.

I also hope the driver is OK,disgusting to make political points about an accident.

Photoshop, I'd have thought?

It might not be.

http://www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/15330571.UPDATED__Overturned_Tory____ad_van____labelled_as_sign_of_party___s____weak_and_wobbly____campaign/

Unless The Warrington Guardian is a fake news outlet.

kle4 said:

midwinter said:

kle4 said:

midwinter said:

Danny565 said:

My revised prediction:

Seats
Conservatives 344 (+13)
Labour 228 (-3)
SNP 47 (-9)
Lib Dems 9 (+1)
Others 22 (-2)
TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)

Vote Shares
Conservatives 43% +6%
Labour 35% +5%
Lib Dems 8% n/c
UKIP 3% -9%

TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North

TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
Clacton


LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6)
Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3)
Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central

LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
Leeds North West

LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
Brighton Pavilion


LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1)
Edinburgh West

Brighton Pavilion is a brave call! Struggle to see that tbh.

All the best people are predicting that result. Danny, Lord Ashcroft, me.

Lol. Good luck. I think people in Brighton are too proud of being different for that too happen. Be funny if they split the vote and the Tories win: though!

That would be hilarious.

Caroline will be an easy hold.

In the original forecast there don't look to be enough Tory gains from Lab to balance with 43/35, assuming the Tories get the differential swing in Midlands and Northern marginals everyone is expecting?

MaxPB said:

Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.

And the same can be said of Tory canvassers going to Labour households. Canvassing is a waste of space unless you know which households have voted a certain way in the past . If canvassing was so accurate Scotland would have voted for independence .

Test

SeanT said:

Danny565 said:

My revised prediction:

Seats
Conservatives 344 (+13)
Labour 228 (-3)
SNP 47 (-9)
Lib Dems 9 (+1)
Others 22 (-2)
TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)

Vote Shares
Conservatives 43% +6%
Labour 35% +5%
Lib Dems 8% n/c
UKIP 3% -9%

TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North

TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
Clacton


LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6)
Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3)
Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central

LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
Leeds North West

LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
Brighton Pavilion


LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1)
Edinburgh West

If you're right, and TMay only gets a maj of 38, then she is in DEEP trouble. She will be a dead woman walking, everyone will know that she'll never fight another campaign, so who is the next PM? The internecine Tory war will begin on June 9.

Ditto Labour, of course.

She needs, to my mind, a majority of 50 at a bare minimum, and preferably 80, to feel safe.

This should help her.

http://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-says-she-will-rip-up-human-rights-laws-to-fight-terror-10906543

nichomar said:

Does it matter that the lib Dems are going to win 0 to 12 seats, no as a lib dem it's about the community you live in and what you believe is right for that community. Yes it makes it all the more difficult for the future but we won't be wiped off the map. Maybe we are a party of local government and that is our niche but no party has the right to assume a particular area is theirs without challenge. I really don't understand the vitriol that the two "main" party's have to someone challenging ther perceived birth right. If nothing else my successors will continue to ensure, in some areas the other parties will have to earn you're vote

Well, I've always admired the spirit of the LDs. They survived destruction once, are trying to survive a double whammy within two years to survive destruction again. I can admire that.

Pulpstar said:

@Ave_It Wimbledon ! Don't believe it myself, and neither does the rumour source (He's banned from here - knows Zac) A quid on the libs there xD
I think it was just a momentary wobble though.

Pulpstar TY - I agree no chance in Wimbledon

spudgfsh said:

kle4 said:

hunchman said:

Putting this all together gives:

Tory 330 + 42 + 1 + 1 + 6 - 2 - 2 = 376
Labour 232 - 42 - 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 193
SNP 56 - 6 - 3 - 1 = 46
LD 8 - 1 + 2 - 1 - 1 + 3 = 10
Plaid 3 + 1 + 1 = 5
Green 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
UKIP 1 - 1 = 0

Tory majority 102

Thoughts?

Feels like a prediction from 4 weeks ago - if the surge doesn't materialise (or is far less than the last 2 weeks suggest), then it could be spot on. I am unsure about the PC gains though - I don;t know Wales, and the Tory dreams there are not as exuberant as they were at one point, but I had thought PC were not doing fantastically either.

I really struggle to see LDs in double figures - I'm only predicting 8-9 on the basis of multiple gains in Scotland- and I know some say places like Norfolk North are not goners, but so many models seem to assume it is beyond hope.

I'd be wary of betting against Norman Lamb. He's liked locally and the LibDems won most of the seats in the locals in may

http://elections.norfolk.gov.uk/default.aspx

I was up in Norman Lamb country on holiday last week. It is a sea of orange.

MaxPB said:

Last time out YouGov had the Tories on 280 seats and the final result was 332 seats, this time they have the Tories on 310 seats, a similar variance will see them win ~360 seats - a majority of around 70. I think that's a good place to start. The more people I speak to the more I feel that these online panels are being gamed. A Labour school friend of mine is extremely despondent that these polls are not being replicated on the door step for them, they are hoping that the people who say they are voting Labour to pollsters are just hard to reach in person because they haven't come across any significant number of them.

Younger voters are very difficult to find by traditional evening or weekend afternoon canvassing.

Nevertheless my forecast is very close to yours. I am going with Con 355, maj 60, based on something like 43/36%. Labour probably surprising in Outer London but taking a hit in the Midlands.

SeanT said:

Danny565 said:

My revised prediction:

Seats
Conservatives 344 (+13)
Labour 228 (-3)
SNP 47 (-9)
Lib Dems 9 (+1)
Others 22 (-2)
TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)

Vote Shares
Conservatives 43% +6%
Labour 35% +5%
Lib Dems 8% n/c
UKIP 3% -9%

TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North

TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South

TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)

TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
Clacton


LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6)
Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport

LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3)
Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central

LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
Leeds North West

LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
Brighton Pavilion


LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath

LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1)
Edinburgh West

If you're right, and TMay only gets a maj of 38, then she is in DEEP trouble. She will be a dead woman walking, everyone will know that she'll never fight another campaign, so who is the next PM? The internecine Tory war will begin on June 9.

Ditto Labour, of course.

She needs, to my mind, a majority of 50 at a bare minimum, and preferably 80, to feel safe.

Yep, my thoughts too. But she'll get at least 100 which will wipe the slate clean for a while. But not indefinitely.

numbertwelve said:

MaxPB said:

Last time out YouGov had the Tories on 280 seats and the final result was 332 seats, this time they have the Tories on 310 seats, a similar variance will see them win ~360 seats - a majority of around 70. I think that's a good place to start. The more people I speak to the more I feel that these online panels are being gamed. A Labour school friend of mine is extremely despondent that these polls are not being replicated on the door step for them, they are hoping that the people who say they are voting Labour to pollsters are just hard to reach in person because they haven't come across any significant number of them.

I'm not sure they're being gamed but I do wonder about their sampling and weightings.

They are the most prominent online polling organisation and they would tend, I suspect, to gather people more internet-savvy and self selecting. I also think their demographic models, whenever they've been trotted out, have been a little bit suss.

I do think they've captured a tightening race and I do think they've picked up a move to Labour amongst the young, and a firming up of their voting intention. I do not believe their forecasting model one bit though. If the Tories are 4% ahead in the low to mid 40s I can't personally see a situation where they're down to 2010 levels or below. A narrow majority maybe, but I still don't think that takes us to hung parliament territory.

There are a number of problems with online polls.
1) they are filled in by people who respond to polls.
2) It's really difficult to get a representative sample when you are relying on people to take the poll.
3) it's also reliant on people telling the truth and it's more difficult to determine whether they are (it's harder for someone to lie when actually speaking to someone)
4) people who take political polls online are not normal and are definitely not representative of the politically disengaged

Along the lines of recent comments, how many gold plated polling companies are there? Or are they only gold plated when their recent poll results confirm individual PBer's beliefs, while all the others are just outliers?

nico777 said:

MaxPB said:

Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.

And the same can be said of Tory canvassers going to Labour households. Canvassing is a waste of space unless you know which households have voted a certain way in the past . If canvassing was so accurate Scotland would have voted for independence .

My own experience of canvassing for labour was that a) it was inefficient and poorly organised and b) I was pretty sure that everyone I spoke to was lying to me. I found it pretty unproductive.

RoyalBlue said:

bigjohnowls said:

https://twitter.com/rascalblog/status/872123140872306690/photo/1

I hope the driver is alright.

No injuries, the tweeter checked before posting.

I'm expecting a much higher turnover of seats than most posters. I wouldn't be at all surprised if 80 seats change hands.