Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Why on Earth would anyone do that?
I'm sure there was some piece after 2015 which suggested that some polling asked voting intention, which would overestimate Labour, but the answers to other questions in the same poll made it clear, in hindsight, that they actually would vote Tory.
I find it hard to believe a Corbyn fan online would vote Tory though.
A lot will just stay silent, and then possibly vote Tory. The loudest voices online in 2015 were Labour, in my social media circles anyway.
When canvassing first ask which issue is most important to you the voter? Then ask what they think the solution is? Then if it is worth it ask who they are going to vote for. Can I count on your support is a crap question which leads the inexperience to leave the doorstep with the wrong answer
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
I would settle for that but also hoping Chris Williamson in Derby North is a Gain too.
Hello! After a hiatus of nearly 11 months, I think it's finally time to make a comeback.
What a shower of an election campaign! The pitiful lack of political talent on display in all parties this election has been plain for all to see. Still it makes life interesting for political cognoscenti like ourselves on here.
And I think we have an equal lack of talent amongst some opinion pollsters! YouGov's absolute nonsense of a seat like Canterbury being in play and the 18-24's turning out in numbers equivalent to the over 65's, plus all other constituency implausibilities has been unbelievably amateurish. Survation's sample in its last poll showing that 40% of the sample watched the QT debate last Friday, when we know it was about 10% of the electorate shows the dangers of a self selecting sample. And just how representative are you if you have the time (and inclination) to fill in all of YouGov's questions.
Welcome back Hunchman. It is good to see the old names returning.
Thanks Richard. Are you holding your nose and voting Tory this time? I can't for many reasons - fraud / corruption (let's not go there!), foreign policy (Libya / Syria), defence policy, economics (watering down of reducing budget deficit to mid-2020's let alone repaying debt), commitment to Paris 'climate change' agreement and quite a few other things besides.
There is a Justice and Anti-Corruption candidate standing in my constituency who I'm voting for, don't think the candidate is much good after going to the hustings, but I do believe in exercising the right to vote, and is the best of the 5 on offer in my opinion, although I think he'll likely pick up around 200-300 votes max.
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
Still very positive for the LDs, and Tories comparatively poorly in Scotland, compared to high predictions I see.
Plausible prediction by Danny565 - I think it will be slightly better than that for CON - mainly at expense of LD. And we won't lose Croydon C or Bury North
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
Any thoughts on Lancaster and Fleetwood?
Leaning towards a Labour hold.
Think the only one of the 2015 gains that Labour will drop will be Wolverhampton SW, where the Midlands effect and lack of incumbency bonus due to Rob Marris standing down will count against them.
Has anyone got any ideas of what could be the 'Portillo Moment' of this election?
I think Norfolk North could be entertaining at 5am (estimated) but with a Tory landslide or a Labour surge who could we be remembering fondly for the next 20 years?
If it goes well for the Tories: Jack Dromey.
If it goes well for Labour: Amber Rudd.
Bonuses: Nick Clegg, Angus Robertson.
Mhairi Black deposed by Slab.
Oh that was like be utterly glorious. I would cheer on SLAB for that contest.
you'll only have to wait until 2:30 (ish) for that one. could be fun especially as it's within swinging distance given NUNS (non-uniform national swing)
In 2010 Cameron got 10.7m votes increasing to 11.3m in 2015. Its clear that plenty of pb tories loathe May, for whatever reason. I'm interested what number she has to attain to get some grudging respect from them.
I don't loathe May, I am simply fustrated that she is running against the most easy opponents a Tory PM has faced er...ever, and she is still making a hash of it. The E.U is watching all this, and will think LOL she aint so tough after all.
Hello! After a hiatus of nearly 11 months, I think it's finally time to make a comeback.
What a shower of an election campaign! The pitiful lack of political talent on display in all parties this election has been plain for all to see. Still it makes life interesting for political cognoscenti like ourselves on here.
And I think we have an equal lack of talent amongst some opinion pollsters! YouGov's absolute nonsense of a seat like Canterbury being in play and the 18-24's turning out in numbers equivalent to the over 65's, plus all other constituency implausibilities has been unbelievably amateurish. Survation's sample in its last poll showing that 40% of the sample watched the QT debate last Friday, when we know it was about 10% of the electorate shows the dangers of a self selecting sample. And just how representative are you if you have the time (and inclination) to fill in all of YouGov's questions.
Welcome back Hunchman. It is good to see the old names returning.
Thanks Richard. Are you holding your nose and voting Tory this time? I can't for many reasons - fraud / corruption (let's not go there!), foreign policy (Libya / Syria), defence policy, economics (watering down of reducing budget deficit to mid-2020's let alone repaying debt), commitment to Paris 'climate change' agreement and quite a few other things besides.
There is a Justice and Anti-Corruption candidate standing in my constituency who I'm voting for, don't think the candidate is much good after going to the hustings, but I do believe in exercising the right to vote, and is the best of the 5 on offer in my opinion, although I think he'll likely pick up around 200-300 votes max.
Brexit Brexit Brexit seems like a great PPB for the Tories to me. I can't understand why they haven't been hammering on it directly for the campaign rather than indirectly via strong and stable.
That is indeed the question. It shoud've been Brexit morning, noon and night (that and Jezza)
How they got themselves sidetracked by social care god only knows...
Nick Timothy's finger on the pulse of the nation...
Has anyone got any ideas of what could be the 'Portillo Moment' of this election?
I think Norfolk North could be entertaining at 5am (estimated) but with a Tory landslide or a Labour surge who could we be remembering fondly for the next 20 years?
If it goes well for the Tories: Jack Dromey.
If it goes well for Labour: Amber Rudd.
Bonuses: Nick Clegg, Angus Robertson.
Mhairi Black deposed by Slab.
Oh that was like be utterly glorious. I would cheer on SLAB for that contest.
you'll only have to wait until 2:30 (ish) for that one. could be fun especially as it's within swinging distance given NUNS (non-uniform national swing)
I think that could happen
I think SNP could be in for an unpleasant night!
Hope so
there's only one way they can realistically go. I think that they'd take something in the 50's (seatwise) as a positive result though
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
Brighton Pavilion is a brave call! Struggle to see that tbh.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
Wonder if that is more useful than ten thousand canvassers pounding the pavements.
Rob - you need to correct Opinium to 6 June, not 6 April!
LOL. Have I been in the US too long? Hmmmm,
You live in America?
PB Tories are everywhere... like a plague of locusts.
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
I really can't see a Tory in Wrexham. The kippers will go back to Labour.
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
Brighton Pavilion is a brave call! Struggle to see that tbh.
All the best people are predicting that result. Danny, Lord Ashcroft, me.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Just had that experience lol, a friend of mine has been liking a bunch of Corbyn stuff for the last week or so. It really confused me because I know him to be fairly right wing, in the end he's started dating a Corbynite and in our private messaging he assured me he's still solid Con and once the election is over he's sure his new gf will give up on politics and go back to being normal.
FWIW, I have finally decided to vote for my Stella Creasy in Walthamstow, not that she'll need my vote to romp home.(she has been a good and popular MP) This is not through any enthusiasm for Corbyn, but more the thought of Theresa May winning the popular vote by a huge margin. Ceredigion where my Dad lives, and I'm from, will be mighty close, but Mark Williams is also popular and diligent and I think the Liberal tradition there will see him home just. My guess for the overall outcome is status quo. TMIPM but for her personally its been a disaster and for Corbyn and his organising team a triumph.
One aspect we haven't heard much talk of is the respective financial spend of each party. I can't believe that the unions have stumped up as much for Labour as Conservative Central Office had to spend - does anyone know what the war chests were? Does it even matter anymore with 24 hour rolling news and social media? Haven't seen a single billboard advert the whole campaign.
Not sure how true this is, but one thing that has depressed me is the lack of 'traditional' advertising by the parties v Facebook and social media. Twenty years ago, you could think 'oh well, at least all this spend is going into the national economy' now you just think 'oh dear, all this spend is going straight into the pocket of Mark Zuckerberg'...
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
Any thoughts on Lancaster and Fleetwood?
Leaning towards a Labour hold.
Think the only one of the 2015 gains that Labour will drop will be Wolverhampton SW, where the Midlands effect and lack of incumbency bonus due to Rob Marris standing down will count against them.
I would like to see Cat removed, but we can but hope.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Just had that experience lol, a friend of mine has been liking a bunch of Corbyn stuff for the last week or so. It really confused me because I know him to be fairly right wing, in the end he's started dating a Corbynite and in our private messaging he assured me he's still solid Con and once the election is over he's sure his new gf will give up on politics and go back to being normal.
What would be really funny is if the gf was only pretending to be left-wing to appear to be 'nice' to her bf...
he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous
the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years
When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.
And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.
he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing
Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd have been deposed by the Europhobes within his own party. There were many mechanisms by which they could have done it: moving to UKIP and putting pressure on that way being one.
As the referendum showed the eurosceptics were in the minority. You constantly overestimate their pull and the desire of the conservatives to stick in government. Most of the defections had taken place over a long period of time. Even when carswell left there was no great movement to UKIP.
The issue Cameron had is that he spent to much time on "detox" and drove away lots of his core supporters. That's why he failed to break 40% in ant election, something Mrs May looks likelyto do.
The reason Mrs May (a remainer) will break 40 percent is because UKIP and the Lib Dems are an irrelevance and Corbyn is leader of the Labour party.
Cameron had to spend so much time on detox because of the mess the cretins on the right made last time the Tories were in power. Sometimes I think parts of the Tory party are physically unable to think of anything bar Europe. It's almost unnatural.
the reason cameron couldnt cross forty is because he pissed off too many of his natural supporters so they stopped voting conservative
it had bugger all to do with europe
Lol. Are you suggesting that Ukip didn't cost the Tories enough votes to get more than 40 percent in 2015? Really? Or were they nothing to do with Europe?
Im suggesting Cameron could have picked up more support from pissed off tories
by 2015 a lot of UKIP support was in places where noone would vote Tory
After Brexit and Trump who would be sure of calling this election . It's a strange election because the polling often hasn't followed what you'd expect in terms of following what we perceive to be as good or bad for each party. May wins but her majority could be anything from where we are now or upto 100+..
A small anecdote some may find interesting. I have found my parents have been remarkably good bellweathers for what a certain section of the population are thinking. They are Northern WWC pensioners, not that interested in politics, watch a lot of TV and like to do things around their local areas i.e. like a lot of people. Speaking to them re the election, I had the following conclusions.
1. TM is actually really liked by a lot of people. Hard to believe that on here but my parents think she is very good and like her a lot, my Dad (especially) more than Cameron (sorry, TSE et al)
2. And it is TM, not the Conservatives. They both said they were voting for "Theresa May", not the Conservatives. That is the first time I have ever heard them refer to a party leader instead of a political party for whom they would vote. My takeaway from that was that might be the mental bridge for many ex-Labour voters to vote Conservative.
3. No sign of the upswing in JC's popularity the polls talk about. All throughout the campaign, my Dad has held the same amount of contempt for JC as he had at the beginning, although Diane Abbott has now been added to the list as well as McD.
4. Dementia tax issue has faded. A week and a half ago, I seriously thought my Dad would not vote Conservative because of his anger over the Dementia tax. But that now seems to have faded massively as an issue. Their concern now is about how awful the terror attacks have been and the need to do something concrete. Naturally, JC does not score highly with them.
5. They will lie to Labour canvassers. If ones come to the day, they trot out the line that they will vote Labour and "yes, JC is a good man" and "Tory cuts" etc etc. For their generation, and living on a council estate, you just nod your head. It is far easier and it just avoids a lot of hassle.
6. Underlying, this is all about Brexit. They voted Out. They trust TM to deliver and they do not trust JC. They want the job done and that is it.
I am sticking my neck out but I think it is conceivable the Conservatives get a 200 or more majority. I think there will be many traditional Labour voters of that ilk who will "lend" their votes to "TM" (not the Tories) to get this done. Medium-term, I think this could be an opportunity for UKIP to come back. Short-term, though, I think we are going to have some utterly shocking surprises when it comes to some traditional Labour seats.
Hello! After a hiatus of nearly 11 months, I think it's finally time to make a comeback.
What a shower of an election campaign! The pitiful lack of political talent on display in all parties this election has been plain for all to see. Still it makes life interesting for political cognoscenti like ourselves on here.
And I think we have an equal lack of talent amongst some opinion pollsters! YouGov's absolute nonsense of a seat like Canterbury being in play and the 18-24's turning out in numbers equivalent to the over 65's, plus all other constituency implausibilities has been unbelievably amateurish. Survation's sample in its last poll showing that 40% of the sample watched the QT debate last Friday, when we know it was about 10% of the electorate shows the dangers of a self selecting sample. And just how representative are you if you have the time (and inclination) to fill in all of YouGov's questions.
Welcome back Hunchman. It is good to see the old names returning.
Thanks Richard. Are you holding your nose and voting Tory this time? I can't for many reasons - fraud / corruption (let's not go there!), foreign policy (Libya / Syria), defence policy, economics (watering down of reducing budget deficit to mid-2020's let alone repaying debt), commitment to Paris 'climate change' agreement and quite a few other things besides.
There is a Justice and Anti-Corruption candidate standing in my constituency who I'm voting for, don't think the candidate is much good after going to the hustings, but I do believe in exercising the right to vote, and is the best of the 5 on offer in my opinion, although I think he'll likely pick up around 200-300 votes max.
I am. It will be a one off if they don't change their tune dramatically over the next 5 years (fat chance I hear you say and you are probably right) and May is not impressing at all - way too authoritarian and old fashioned statist for my liking. But I need to see Brexit completed and I trust the Tories marginally more than Labour to see that done.
After that it will depend but back to backing local candidates next time around I think.
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
Brighton Pavilion is a brave call! Struggle to see that tbh.
All the best people are predicting that result. Danny, Lord Ashcroft, me.
as much as I dislike Caroline Lucas, the greens have steadily built their share of the vote over a long period. since they first stood in the seat in 1992 they have always got more votes in the next election than the previous. This time may impact that but over the last 40 years or so the makeup of the seat has changed and certainly since the tories last held it.
U have to think these rallies are a sign of enthusiasm. Like Trump's. There will be an increase of labour share on thursday and noth just amongst the young.
These are nothing like the same scale or size or marginality of Trump's rallies.
Is your rumour London seat Chingford?
Wimbledon actually ! I've had a pound on the yellow peril ther - probably just overworries from CCHQ seeing as Twickenham is seemingly going yellow.
U have to think these rallies are a sign of enthusiasm. Like Trump's. There will be an increase of labour share on thursday and noth just amongst the young.
These are nothing like the same scale or size or marginality of Trump's rallies.
Is your rumour London seat Chingford?
Wimbledon actually ! I've had a pound on the yellow peril ther - probably just overworries from CCHQ seeing as Twickenham is seemingly going yellow.
Thats must be the south london safe seat timmo was talking about. It was like 80% REMAIN.
If as looks possible, we end with something close to an overall unchanged HoC with the main parties +/- 10 seats of their starting positions, will this be the most pointless election of all time ? Her "reasons" for going to the country unchanged
Has May squandered all her political capital for nothing ?
A small anecdote some may find interesting. I have found my parents have been remarkably good bellweathers for what a certain section of the population are thinking. They are Northern WWC pensioners, not that interested in politics, watch a lot of TV and like to do things around their local areas i.e. like a lot of people. Speaking to them re the election, I had the following conclusions.
1. TM is actually really liked by a lot of people. Hard to believe that on here but my parents think she is very good and like her a lot, my Dad (especially) more than Cameron (sorry, TSE et al)
2. And it is TM, not the Conservatives. They both said they were voting for "Theresa May", not the Conservatives. That is the first time I have ever heard them refer to a party leader instead of a political party for whom they would vote. My takeaway from that was that might be the mental bridge for many ex-Labour voters to vote Conservative.
3. No sign of the upswing in JC's popularity the polls talk about. All throughout the campaign, my Dad has held the same amount of contempt for JC as he had at the beginning, although Diane Abbott has now been added to the list as well as McD.
4. Dementia tax issue has faded. A week and a half ago, I seriously thought my Dad would not vote Conservative because of his anger over the Dementia tax. But that now seems to have faded massively as an issue. Their concern now is about how awful the terror attacks have been and the need to do something concrete. Naturally, JC does not score highly with them.
5. They will lie to Labour canvassers. If ones come to the day, they trot out the line that they will vote Labour and "yes, JC is a good man" and "Tory cuts" etc etc. For their generation, and living on a council estate, you just nod your head. It is far easier and it just avoids a lot of hassle.
6. Underlying, this is all about Brexit. They voted Out. They trust TM to deliver and they do not trust JC. They want the job done and that is it.
I am sticking my neck out but I think it is conceivable the Conservatives get a 200 or more majority. I think there will be many traditional Labour voters of that ilk who will "lend" their votes to "TM" (not the Tories) to get this done. Medium-term, I think this could be an opportunity for UKIP to come back. Short-term, though, I think we are going to have some utterly shocking surprises when it comes to some traditional Labour seats.
Top analysis TY. Let's hope so! I think 200 v unlikely but 100 not impossible.
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
There's 16/1 available if you're confident Labour can take Brighton Pavilion.
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
Brighton Pavilion is a brave call! Struggle to see that tbh.
All the best people are predicting that result. Danny, Lord Ashcroft, me.
Lol. Good luck. I think people in Brighton are too proud of being different for that too happen. Be funny if they split the vote and the Tories win: though!
If as looks possible, we end with something close to an overall unchanged HoC with the main parties +/- 10 seats of their starting positions, will this be the most pointless election of all time ? Her "reasons" for going to the country unchanged
Has May squandered all her political capital for nothing ?
Even if that does happen, it has moved the next election back to 2022.. unless it falls in the interim.
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock) Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham Northfield Bishop Auckland Blackpool S Bolton NE Bridgend Bristol E Bury S Chester Clywd S Copeland (hold on to by-election gain) Coventry NW Coventry S Darlington Delyn Derbyshire NE Dewsbury Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron) Dudley N Grimsby Halifax Hartlepool Hyndburn Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today) Mansfield Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!) Oldham E & Saddleworth Penistone & Stocksbridge Rother Valley Scunthorpe Southampton Test Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss) Wakefield Walsall N Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington (regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh SW Moray Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross Edinburgh W Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
Just went onto the STV website to watch the Scottish leaders' debate. Did a bit of a double-take when the big headline there was "Nasty Nicola"
Alas, that headline was referring to Emmerdale.
Nicola's pitch to the middle classes of Scotland was there in abundance last night - free tuition at University, would love to put taxes up but can't due to England and a social care system that means you can keep the whole value of granny's house even if she has dementia.
She'd love to be a socialist, but the nasty English won't allow her
Nicola knows where her bread is buttered with the @MalcolmG type SNP vote.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
agreed with that-i am in a relatively safe Con seat and there are a number of middle class professional friends who want to express their anger about Brexit by voting for anyone but Conservative.
Last time out YouGov had the Tories on 280 seats and the final result was 332 seats, this time they have the Tories on 310 seats, a similar variance will see them win ~360 seats - a majority of around 70. I think that's a good place to start. The more people I speak to the more I feel that these online panels are being gamed. A Labour school friend of mine is extremely despondent that these polls are not being replicated on the door step for them, they are hoping that the people who say they are voting Labour to pollsters are just hard to reach in person because they haven't come across any significant number of them.
Top analysis TY. Let's hope so! I think 200 v unlikely but 100 not impossible.
Thanks Ave It! I know what you mean re the 200 but, if TM does get to a 100+, it is likely to point to a major shift across a wide range of people. My underlying view is that, for Labour, we cannot rule out a similar style of event to what happened in Scotland in 2015 - not in the cities and / or areas where there is a large Pakistani / Bangladeshi vote but certainly for traditional WWC areas.
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
Brighton Pavilion is a brave call! Struggle to see that tbh.
All the best people are predicting that result. Danny, Lord Ashcroft, me.
Lol. Good luck. I think people in Brighton are too proud of being different for that too happen. Be funny if they split the vote and the Tories win: though!
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
Brighton Pavilion is a brave call! Struggle to see that tbh.
All the best people are predicting that result. Danny, Lord Ashcroft, me.
Lol. Good luck. I think people in Brighton are too proud of being different for that too happen. Be funny if they split the vote and the Tories win: though!
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock) Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham Northfield Bishop Auckland Blackpool S Bolton NE Bridgend Bristol E Bury S Chester Clywd S Copeland (hold on to by-election gain) Coventry NW Coventry S Darlington Delyn Derbyshire NE Dewsbury Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron) Dudley N Grimsby Halifax Hartlepool Hyndburn Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today) Mansfield Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!) Oldham E & Saddleworth Penistone & Stocksbridge Rother Valley Scunthorpe Southampton Test Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss) Wakefield Walsall N Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington (regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh SW Moray Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross Edinburgh W Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
I'd remove Coventry South and put in Workington. Coventry South has a younger and more mixed demographic. I reckon Cov NW will go actually despite being nominally the harder target. Woodlands ward was very strong for Street in the mayorals.
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock) Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham Northfield Bishop Auckland Blackpool S Bolton NE Bridgend Bristol E Bury S Chester Clywd S Copeland (hold on to by-election gain) Coventry NW Coventry S Darlington Delyn Derbyshire NE Dewsbury Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron) Dudley N Grimsby Halifax Hartlepool Hyndburn Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today) Mansfield Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!) Oldham E & Saddleworth Penistone & Stocksbridge Rother Valley Scunthorpe Southampton Test Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss) Wakefield Walsall N Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington (regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh SW Moray Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross Edinburgh W Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
Feels like a prediction from 4 weeks ago - if the surge doesn't materialise (or is far less than the last 2 weeks suggest), then it could be spot on. I am unsure about the PC gains though - I don;t know Wales, and the Tory dreams there are not as exuberant as they were at one point, but I had thought PC were not doing fantastically either.
I really struggle to see LDs in double figures - I'm only predicting 8-9 on the basis of multiple gains in Scotland- and I know some say places like Norfolk North are not goners, but so many models seem to assume it is beyond hope.
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock) Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham Northfield Bishop Auckland Blackpool S Bolton NE Bridgend Bristol E Bury S Chester Clywd S Copeland (hold on to by-election gain) Coventry NW Coventry S Darlington Delyn Derbyshire NE Dewsbury Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron) Dudley N Grimsby Halifax Hartlepool Hyndburn Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today) Mansfield Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!) Oldham E & Saddleworth Penistone & Stocksbridge Rother Valley Scunthorpe Southampton Test Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss) Wakefield Walsall N Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington (regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh SW Moray Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross Edinburgh W Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
Seems sensible but I think a few more shocks and surprises re Conservatives taking seats from Labour. One thing about London - I know people talk about JC appealing to London voters but many may just thing he is too risky from a personal wealth standpoint. As an aside, I had an e-mail from Labour asking me to "ask my boss for a day off work and rearrange my plans" so I could canvass in Hampstead and Kilburn. Not sure what to make of that.
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock) Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham Northfield Bishop Auckland Blackpool S Bolton NE Bridgend Bristol E Bury S Chester Clywd S Copeland (hold on to by-election gain) Coventry NW Coventry S Darlington Delyn Derbyshire NE Dewsbury Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron) Dudley N Grimsby Halifax Hartlepool Hyndburn Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today) Mansfield Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!) Oldham E & Saddleworth Penistone & Stocksbridge Rother Valley Scunthorpe Southampton Test Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss) Wakefield Walsall N Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington (regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh SW Moray Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross Edinburgh W Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
I'd remove Coventry South and put in Workington. Coventry South has a younger and more mixed demographic. I reckon Cov NW will go actually despite being nominally the harder target. Woodlands ward was very strong for Street in the mayorals.
Hunchman - I agree we will do nothing in London
Pulpstar - what's your London surprise - Hackney S? (OK one gain from LAB)
Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.
It's hilarious to read some of the anecdotes on here and see them put forward as being a bellwether for the election. They normally go as follows Madge from the chippie has voted Labour all her life but now says she loves May. This then equates to a huge majority!
Does it matter that the lib Dems are going to win 0 to 12 seats, no as a lib dem it's about the community you live in and what you believe is right for that community. Yes it makes it all the more difficult for the future but we won't be wiped off the map. Maybe we are a party of local government and that is our niche but no party has the right to assume a particular area is theirs without challenge. I really don't understand the vitriol that the two "main" party's have to someone challenging ther perceived birth right. If nothing else my successors will continue to ensure, in some areas the other parties will have to earn you're vote
Last time out YouGov had the Tories on 280 seats and the final result was 332 seats, this time they have the Tories on 310 seats, a similar variance will see them win ~360 seats - a majority of around 70. I think that's a good place to start. The more people I speak to the more I feel that these online panels are being gamed. A Labour school friend of mine is extremely despondent that these polls are not being replicated on the door step for them, they are hoping that the people who say they are voting Labour to pollsters are just hard to reach in person because they haven't come across any significant number of them.
I'm not sure they're being gamed but I do wonder about their sampling and weightings.
They are the most prominent online polling organisation and they would tend, I suspect, to gather people more internet-savvy and self selecting. I also think their demographic models, whenever they've been trotted out, have been a little bit suss.
I do think they've captured a tightening race and I do think they've picked up a move to Labour amongst the young, and a firming up of their voting intention. I do not believe their forecasting model one bit though. If the Tories are 4% ahead in the low to mid 40s I can't personally see a situation where they're down to 2010 levels or below. A narrow majority maybe, but I still don't think that takes us to hung parliament territory.
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock) Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham Northfield Bishop Auckland Blackpool S Bolton NE Bridgend Bristol E Bury S Chester Clywd S Copeland (hold on to by-election gain) Coventry NW Coventry S Darlington Delyn Derbyshire NE Dewsbury Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron) Dudley N Grimsby Halifax Hartlepool Hyndburn Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today) Mansfield Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!) Oldham E & Saddleworth Penistone & Stocksbridge Rother Valley Scunthorpe Southampton Test Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss) Wakefield Walsall N Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington (regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh SW Moray Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross Edinburgh W Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.
I said the same thing further down, my parents do the same. Not worth the hassle, particularly if you have some spotty faced yoof from Momentum threatening to post on social media about the nasty, selfish people at 29 Mandela Drive who are voting Tory.
@Ave_It Wimbledon ! Don't believe it myself, and neither does the rumour source (He's banned from here - knows Zac) A quid on the libs there xD I think it was just a momentary wobble though.
Feels like a prediction from 4 weeks ago - if the surge doesn't materialise (or is far less than the last 2 weeks suggest), then it could be spot on. I am unsure about the PC gains though - I don;t know Wales, and the Tory dreams there are not as exuberant as they were at one point, but I had thought PC were not doing fantastically either.
I really struggle to see LDs in double figures - I'm only predicting 8-9 on the basis of multiple gains in Scotland- and I know some say places like Norfolk North are not goners, but so many models seem to assume it is beyond hope.
I'd be wary of betting against Norman Lamb. He's liked locally and the LibDems won most of the seats in the locals in may
It's hilarious to read some of the anecdotes on here and see them put forward as being a bellwether for the election. They normally go as follows Madge from the chippie has voted Labour all her life but now says she loves May. This then equates to a huge majority!
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
Brighton Pavilion is a brave call! Struggle to see that tbh.
All the best people are predicting that result. Danny, Lord Ashcroft, me.
Lol. Good luck. I think people in Brighton are too proud of being different for that too happen. Be funny if they split the vote and the Tories win: though!
That would be hilarious.
Caroline will be an easy hold.
In the original forecast there don't look to be enough Tory gains from Lab to balance with 43/35, assuming the Tories get the differential swing in Midlands and Northern marginals everyone is expecting?
It's hilarious to read some of the anecdotes on here and see them put forward as being a bellwether for the election. They normally go as follows Madge from the chippie has voted Labour all her life but now says she loves May. This then equates to a huge majority!
I'll have you know Madge is a dear friend of mine, and her views not to be mocked, sir/madam!
Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.
And the same can be said of Tory canvassers going to Labour households. Canvassing is a waste of space unless you know which households have voted a certain way in the past . If canvassing was so accurate Scotland would have voted for independence .
Just went onto the STV website to watch the Scottish leaders' debate. Did a bit of a double-take when the big headline there was "Nasty Nicola"
Alas, that headline was referring to Emmerdale.
Nicola's pitch to the middle classes of Scotland was there in abundance last night - free tuition at University, would love to put taxes up but can't due to England and a social care system that means you can keep the whole value of granny's house even if she has dementia.
She'd love to be a socialist, but the nasty English won't allow her
Nicola knows where her bread is buttered with the @MalcolmG type SNP vote.
That sums up the entire SNP strategy in government. Talk the talk of socialism and anti-austerity etc but walk the walk of the Tory tax and spend plans with a few minor tweaks. It does not displease any part of their coalition of support but it does mean that often they end up doing nothing at all when in power at any level.
Feels like a prediction from 4 weeks ago - if the surge doesn't materialise (or is far less than the last 2 weeks suggest), then it could be spot on. I am unsure about the PC gains though - I don;t know Wales, and the Tory dreams there are not as exuberant as they were at one point, but I had thought PC were not doing fantastically either.
I really struggle to see LDs in double figures - I'm only predicting 8-9 on the basis of multiple gains in Scotland- and I know some say places like Norfolk North are not goners, but so many models seem to assume it is beyond hope.
I'd be wary of betting against Norman Lamb. He's liked locally and the LibDems won most of the seats in the locals in may
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
If you're right, and TMay only gets a maj of 38, then she is in DEEP trouble. She will be a dead woman walking, everyone will know that she'll never fight another campaign, so who is the next PM? The internecine Tory war will begin on June 9.
Ditto Labour, of course.
She needs, to my mind, a majority of 50 at a bare minimum, and preferably 80, to feel safe.
"The two qualities Hillary had in her favour were 1) not being her opponent, and 2) a reputation for stolid competence, though neither was as powerful a factor as she imagined. Fatally underestimating the appeal of a maverick rival promising change, Hillary hid herself away as far as possible in the assumption that she could coast to the line."
Does it matter that the lib Dems are going to win 0 to 12 seats, no as a lib dem it's about the community you live in and what you believe is right for that community. Yes it makes it all the more difficult for the future but we won't be wiped off the map. Maybe we are a party of local government and that is our niche but no party has the right to assume a particular area is theirs without challenge. I really don't understand the vitriol that the two "main" party's have to someone challenging ther perceived birth right. If nothing else my successors will continue to ensure, in some areas the other parties will have to earn you're vote
Well, I've always admired the spirit of the LDs. They survived destruction once, are trying to survive a double whammy within two years to survive destruction again. I can admire that.
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
The one I can't see happening is the Tories losing Bristol North West. Very different demographics to the rest of the city.
@Ave_It Wimbledon ! Don't believe it myself, and neither does the rumour source (He's banned from here - knows Zac) A quid on the libs there xD I think it was just a momentary wobble though.
Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.
And the same can be said of Tory canvassers going to Labour households. Canvassing is a waste of space unless you know which households have voted a certain way in the past . If canvassing was so accurate Scotland would have voted for independence .
No, it is entirely different. If you say you vote Labour in a Conservative area, nobody gives a damn. If you say you vote Conservative in a Labour area, the view is you suddenly find yourself getting in a spot of bother from the Council.
Feels like a prediction from 4 weeks ago - if the surge doesn't materialise (or is far less than the last 2 weeks suggest), then it could be spot on. I am unsure about the PC gains though - I don;t know Wales, and the Tory dreams there are not as exuberant as they were at one point, but I had thought PC were not doing fantastically either.
I really struggle to see LDs in double figures - I'm only predicting 8-9 on the basis of multiple gains in Scotland- and I know some say places like Norfolk North are not goners, but so many models seem to assume it is beyond hope.
I'd be wary of betting against Norman Lamb. He's liked locally and the LibDems won most of the seats in the locals in may
I know little more than you do, you could take it up with the author he seems reasonably qualified by comparison
Shashi Tharoor served for twenty-nine years at the UN, culminating as Under-Secretary General. He is a Congress MP in India, the author of fourteen previous books and has won numerous literary awards, including a Commonwealth Writers' Writers' Prize. Tharoor has a PhD from the Fletcher School and was named by the World Economic Forum in Davos in 1998 as a Global Leader of Tomorrow.
It's total crap. Horseshit. The Muslim conquest of India was as brutal as the Muslim conquest of anywhere else. The Hindus didn't invite them in and offer tea.
Then there's Timur, the Mongol warlord who conquered India in the 14th century
Like most Mongol warlords, he wasn't known for his kindness
"Scholars estimate that his military campaigns caused the deaths of 17 million people, amounting to about 5% of the world population at the time"
The idea that India before the British Raj was some peaceful land of human harmony is just utterly fatuous. Embarrassing.
which isnt actually what he says so thats ok
No. It's what YOU said, you steaming great twat.
Here, I'll repost it for you, in case you forgot.
"the sub-continent had little history of inter-community violence in its pre-British history"
ok, so apologies for igniting you on this topic I am sure you have better places to point your energies, also apologies if the phrasing of that sentence was not good, which in retrospect it wasnt - so to be more clear, the line of argument (which is not mine it is his) is that violence in the pre the colonial era was essentially the violence that flowed from wars of conquest and from ruling class repression etc etc, there is no claim that about a 'land of human harmony' you will be very relieved to know. He is saying that
"large-scale conflicts between Hindus and Muslims (religiously defined), only began under colonial rule"
there is a comments section below this article if you would like to pass on your thoughts to an even wider audience...
Last time out YouGov had the Tories on 280 seats and the final result was 332 seats, this time they have the Tories on 310 seats, a similar variance will see them win ~360 seats - a majority of around 70. I think that's a good place to start. The more people I speak to the more I feel that these online panels are being gamed. A Labour school friend of mine is extremely despondent that these polls are not being replicated on the door step for them, they are hoping that the people who say they are voting Labour to pollsters are just hard to reach in person because they haven't come across any significant number of them.
Younger voters are very difficult to find by traditional evening or weekend afternoon canvassing.
Nevertheless my forecast is very close to yours. I am going with Con 355, maj 60, based on something like 43/36%. Labour probably surprising in Outer London but taking a hit in the Midlands.
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock) Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham Northfield Bishop Auckland Blackpool S Bolton NE Bridgend Bristol E Bury S Chester Clywd S Copeland (hold on to by-election gain) Coventry NW Coventry S Darlington Delyn Derbyshire NE Dewsbury Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron) Dudley N Grimsby Halifax Hartlepool Hyndburn Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today) Mansfield Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!) Oldham E & Saddleworth Penistone & Stocksbridge Rother Valley Scunthorpe Southampton Test Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss) Wakefield Walsall N Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington (regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh SW Moray Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross Edinburgh W Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
Seems sensible but I think a few more shocks and surprises re Conservatives taking seats from Labour. One thing about London - I know people talk about JC appealing to London voters but many may just thing he is too risky from a personal wealth standpoint. As an aside, I had an e-mail from Labour asking me to "ask my boss for a day off work and rearrange my plans" so I could canvass in Hampstead and Kilburn. Not sure what to make of that.
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
If you're right, and TMay only gets a maj of 38, then she is in DEEP trouble. She will be a dead woman walking, everyone will know that she'll never fight another campaign, so who is the next PM? The internecine Tory war will begin on June 9.
Ditto Labour, of course.
She needs, to my mind, a majority of 50 at a bare minimum, and preferably 80, to feel safe.
Yep, my thoughts too. But she'll get at least 100 which will wipe the slate clean for a while. But not indefinitely.
"The two qualities Hillary had in her favour were 1) not being her opponent, and 2) a reputation for stolid competence, though neither was as powerful a factor as she imagined. Fatally underestimating the appeal of a maverick rival promising change, Hillary hid herself away as far as possible in the assumption that she could coast to the line."
The Clinton brand was deeply flawed in ways that TMay is not.
Last time out YouGov had the Tories on 280 seats and the final result was 332 seats, this time they have the Tories on 310 seats, a similar variance will see them win ~360 seats - a majority of around 70. I think that's a good place to start. The more people I speak to the more I feel that these online panels are being gamed. A Labour school friend of mine is extremely despondent that these polls are not being replicated on the door step for them, they are hoping that the people who say they are voting Labour to pollsters are just hard to reach in person because they haven't come across any significant number of them.
I'm not sure they're being gamed but I do wonder about their sampling and weightings.
They are the most prominent online polling organisation and they would tend, I suspect, to gather people more internet-savvy and self selecting. I also think their demographic models, whenever they've been trotted out, have been a little bit suss.
I do think they've captured a tightening race and I do think they've picked up a move to Labour amongst the young, and a firming up of their voting intention. I do not believe their forecasting model one bit though. If the Tories are 4% ahead in the low to mid 40s I can't personally see a situation where they're down to 2010 levels or below. A narrow majority maybe, but I still don't think that takes us to hung parliament territory.
There are a number of problems with online polls. 1) they are filled in by people who respond to polls. 2) It's really difficult to get a representative sample when you are relying on people to take the poll. 3) it's also reliant on people telling the truth and it's more difficult to determine whether they are (it's harder for someone to lie when actually speaking to someone) 4) people who take political polls online are not normal and are definitely not representative of the politically disengaged
Along the lines of recent comments, how many gold plated polling companies are there? Or are they only gold plated when their recent poll results confirm individual PBer's beliefs, while all the others are just outliers?
Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.
I said the same thing further down, my parents do the same. Not worth the hassle, particularly if you have some spotty faced yoof from Momentum threatening to post on social media about the nasty, selfish people at 29 Mandela Drive who are voting Tory.
I've started being nasty on Facebook. Telling lefties to do one, fuck themselves, etc. Especially if they accuse anyone of Islamophobia.
Last time out YouGov had the Tories on 280 seats and the final result was 332 seats, this time they have the Tories on 310 seats, a similar variance will see them win ~360 seats - a majority of around 70. I think that's a good place to start. The more people I speak to the more I feel that these online panels are being gamed. A Labour school friend of mine is extremely despondent that these polls are not being replicated on the door step for them, they are hoping that the people who say they are voting Labour to pollsters are just hard to reach in person because they haven't come across any significant number of them.
I'm not sure they're being gamed but I do wonder about their sampling and weightings.
They are the most prominent online polling organisation and they would tend, I suspect, to gather people more internet-savvy and self selecting. I also think their demographic models, whenever they've been trotted out, have been a little bit suss.
I do think they've captured a tightening race and I do think they've picked up a move to Labour amongst the young, and a firming up of their voting intention. I do not believe their forecasting model one bit though. If the Tories are 4% ahead in the low to mid 40s I can't personally see a situation where they're down to 2010 levels or below. A narrow majority maybe, but I still don't think that takes us to hung parliament territory.
As usual we have a strikingly large number of posters in the rather small pool of pb saying "just done my nth yougov of the campaign".
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
If you're right, and TMay only gets a maj of 38, then she is in DEEP trouble. She will be a dead woman walking, everyone will know that she'll never fight another campaign, so who is the next PM? The internecine Tory war will begin on June 9.
Ditto Labour, of course.
She needs, to my mind, a majority of 50 at a bare minimum, and preferably 80, to feel safe.
Yep, my thoughts too. But she'll get at least 100 which will wipe the slate clean for a while. But not indefinitely.
Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.
And the same can be said of Tory canvassers going to Labour households. Canvassing is a waste of space unless you know which households have voted a certain way in the past . If canvassing was so accurate Scotland would have voted for independence .
My own experience of canvassing for labour was that a) it was inefficient and poorly organised and b) I was pretty sure that everyone I spoke to was lying to me. I found it pretty unproductive.
Along the lines of recent comments, how many gold plated polling companies are there? Or are they only gold plated when their recent poll results confirm individual PBer's beliefs, while all the others are just outliers?
We prefer to use the KLAXON rating now. None of this gold standard malarkey.
Feels like a prediction from 4 weeks ago - if the surge doesn't materialise (or is far less than the last 2 weeks suggest), then it could be spot on. I am unsure about the PC gains though - I don;t know Wales, and the Tory dreams there are not as exuberant as they were at one point, but I had thought PC were not doing fantastically either.
I really struggle to see LDs in double figures - I'm only predicting 8-9 on the basis of multiple gains in Scotland- and I know some say places like Norfolk North are not goners, but so many models seem to assume it is beyond hope.
I'd be wary of betting against Norman Lamb. He's liked locally and the LibDems won most of the seats in the locals in may
Hmm I heard the same regarding Adrian Sanders in Torbay in 2015. At the end of the day if the numbers stack up, he'll drop.
The reason Normal Lamb is considered to be in trouble is the 16% ukip vote but in the locals the libs won local seats from the tories. I do think the UKIP vote will collapse but it's a question as to whether all of it goes tory.
Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.
I thought we were trying to explain why Labour's feedback from the doorstep was worse than the polls?
Comments
There is a Justice and Anti-Corruption candidate standing in my constituency who I'm voting for, don't think the candidate is much good after going to the hustings, but I do believe in exercising the right to vote, and is the best of the 5 on offer in my opinion, although I think he'll likely pick up around 200-300 votes max.
Not that hopeful in Brighton Kemptown!
Think the only one of the 2015 gains that Labour will drop will be Wolverhampton SW, where the Midlands effect and lack of incumbency bonus due to Rob Marris standing down will count against them.
I think SNP could be in for an unpleasant night!
Hope so
It was scarier than Wibbly Wobblys laugh
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
I really can't see a Tory in Wrexham. The kippers will go back to Labour.
Alas, that headline was referring to Emmerdale.
What would be really funny is if the gf was only pretending to be left-wing to appear to be 'nice' to her bf...
1. TM is actually really liked by a lot of people. Hard to believe that on here but my parents think she is very good and like her a lot, my Dad (especially) more than Cameron (sorry, TSE et al)
2. And it is TM, not the Conservatives. They both said they were voting for "Theresa May", not the Conservatives. That is the first time I have ever heard them refer to a party leader instead of a political party for whom they would vote. My takeaway from that was that might be the mental bridge for many ex-Labour voters to vote Conservative.
3. No sign of the upswing in JC's popularity the polls talk about. All throughout the campaign, my Dad has held the same amount of contempt for JC as he had at the beginning, although Diane Abbott has now been added to the list as well as McD.
4. Dementia tax issue has faded. A week and a half ago, I seriously thought my Dad would not vote Conservative because of his anger over the Dementia tax. But that now seems to have faded massively as an issue. Their concern now is about how awful the terror attacks have been and the need to do something concrete. Naturally, JC does not score highly with them.
5. They will lie to Labour canvassers. If ones come to the day, they trot out the line that they will vote Labour and "yes, JC is a good man" and "Tory cuts" etc etc. For their generation, and living on a council estate, you just nod your head. It is far easier and it just avoids a lot of hassle.
6. Underlying, this is all about Brexit. They voted Out. They trust TM to deliver and they do not trust JC. They want the job done and that is it.
I am sticking my neck out but I think it is conceivable the Conservatives get a 200 or more majority. I think there will be many traditional Labour voters of that ilk who will "lend" their votes to "TM" (not the Tories) to get this done. Medium-term, I think this could be an opportunity for UKIP to come back. Short-term, though, I think we are going to have some utterly shocking surprises when it comes to some traditional Labour seats.
After that it will depend but back to backing local candidates next time around I think.
Will take man power away from surrounding seats.
Has May squandered all her political capital for nothing ?
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside
Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock)
Birmingham Edgbaston
Birmingham Northfield
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool S
Bolton NE
Bridgend
Bristol E
Bury S
Chester
Clywd S
Copeland (hold on to by-election gain)
Coventry NW
Coventry S
Darlington
Delyn
Derbyshire NE
Dewsbury
Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron)
Dudley N
Grimsby
Halifax
Hartlepool
Hyndburn
Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today)
Mansfield
Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E
Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!)
Oldham E & Saddleworth
Penistone & Stocksbridge
Rother Valley
Scunthorpe
Southampton Test
Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss)
Wakefield
Walsall N
Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington
(regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Dumfries & Galloway
Edinburgh SW
Moray
Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross
Edinburgh W
Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton
Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central
Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
Putting this all together gives:
Tory 330 + 42 + 1 + 1 + 6 - 2 - 2 = 376
Labour 232 - 42 - 1 + 1 + 1 + 2 = 193
SNP 56 - 6 - 3 - 1 = 46
LD 8 - 1 + 2 - 1 - 1 + 3 = 10
Plaid 3 + 1 + 1 = 5
Green 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
UKIP 1 - 1 = 0
Tory majority 102
Thoughts?
She'd love to be a socialist, but the nasty English won't allow her
Nicola knows where her bread is buttered with the @MalcolmG type SNP vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/06/theresa-may-will-not-let-human-rights-act-stop-bringing-new/
Top analysis TY. Let's hope so! I think 200 v unlikely but 100 not impossible.
Thanks Ave It! I know what you mean re the 200 but, if TM does get to a 100+, it is likely to point to a major shift across a wide range of people. My underlying view is that, for Labour, we cannot rule out a similar style of event to what happened in Scotland in 2015 - not in the cities and / or areas where there is a large Pakistani / Bangladeshi vote but certainly for traditional WWC areas.
Woodlands ward was very strong for Street in the mayorals.
I really struggle to see LDs in double figures - I'm only predicting 8-9 on the basis of multiple gains in Scotland- and I know some say places like Norfolk North are not goners, but so many models seem to assume it is beyond hope.
Pulpstar - what's your London surprise - Hackney S? (OK one gain from LAB)
They are the most prominent online polling organisation and they would tend, I suspect, to gather people more internet-savvy and self selecting. I also think their demographic models, whenever they've been trotted out, have been a little bit suss.
I do think they've captured a tightening race and I do think they've picked up a move to Labour amongst the young, and a firming up of their voting intention. I do not believe their forecasting model one bit though. If the Tories are 4% ahead in the low to mid 40s I can't personally see a situation where they're down to 2010 levels or below. A narrow majority maybe, but I still don't think that takes us to hung parliament territory.
I think it was just a momentary wobble though.
http://elections.norfolk.gov.uk/default.aspx
http://www.warringtonguardian.co.uk/news/15330571.UPDATED__Overturned_Tory____ad_van____labelled_as_sign_of_party___s____weak_and_wobbly____campaign/
Unless The Warrington Guardian is a fake news outlet.
In the original forecast there don't look to be enough Tory gains from Lab to balance with 43/35, assuming the Tories get the differential swing in Midlands and Northern marginals everyone is expecting?
It does not displease any part of their coalition of support but it does mean that often they end up doing nothing at all when in power at any level.
http://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-says-she-will-rip-up-human-rights-laws-to-fight-terror-10906543
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-hillary-clinton-gordon-brown-general-election-2017-a7775751.html
"The two qualities Hillary had in her favour were 1) not being her opponent, and 2) a reputation for stolid competence, though neither was as powerful a factor as she imagined. Fatally underestimating the appeal of a maverick rival promising change, Hillary hid herself away as far as possible in the assumption that she could coast to the line."
Nevertheless my forecast is very close to yours. I am going with Con 355, maj 60, based on something like 43/36%. Labour probably surprising in Outer London but taking a hit in the Midlands.
The Clinton brand was deeply flawed in ways that TMay is not.
1) they are filled in by people who respond to polls.
2) It's really difficult to get a representative sample when you are relying on people to take the poll.
3) it's also reliant on people telling the truth and it's more difficult to determine whether they are (it's harder for someone to lie when actually speaking to someone)
4) people who take political polls online are not normal and are definitely not representative of the politically disengaged