Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Just had that experience lol, a friend of mine has been liking a bunch of Corbyn stuff for the last week or so. It really confused me because I know him to be fairly right wing, in the end he's started dating a Corbynite and in our private messaging he assured me he's still solid Con and once the election is over he's sure his new gf will give up on politics and go back to being normal.
LOL I REALLY fancied a girl at Uni-she was the full Green ticket/ eco-gimp/card board sandals/no deodorant etc- I would do anything to get a chance of getting her into bed-i even went to some green talks and helped deliver some leaflets etc.
I still voted Con in 87
And, No, sadly i got absolutely nowhere near her "green space"
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
Given the LD domination of Edinburgh West in both Holyrood and last month's locals (combined with the problems of the former MP), I think it's by far the most likely LD gain in the whole country.
You think? I'm not sure you've said that before.
People keep suggesting it isn't a cast iron LD gain so they need to be telt.
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
Any experienced and clued up campaign team will get a very good idea of the result at the verification stage, anything between one and three hours before the count finishes. It is of course a serious offence to communicate this to anyone outside the count, although judging by the number of journalists clearly getting tip offs, some people aren't quite as worried by this as they used to be. When mobile phones became widespread, maintaining complete secrecy at a count became very difficult.
For once, Houghton and Sunderland South might be interesting in itself.
Just imagine if it is a Tory gain.....
I wasn't going that far, but there's 14k votes between the Tories and Labour. If that grows 16k+ then May might be looking forward to a very bad night. Conversely, if it's 11k or less then she might be looking at a very good one.
Quite a substantial UKIP vote there, would be very bad if the Tories were going backwards. Yeah, a gain would be out of this world good for the Tories. But I just want to imagine what the reaction on here would be like...
My mum and dad (mum voting Conservative, dad is voting UKIP) think that Corbyn is a nice guy, means well....but don't want him as PM. Neither are that hot on May, (my dad especially doesn't like her) but feel she's a better option for PM. My dad wants her to be re-elected because of Brexit. He won't vote Conservative because that is going too far for him.
How did they vote in 2015 ?
Mum voted Labour.
Can't remember re my dad but he may have voted UKIP back then as well. He either voted Labour or UKIP. I'll text him just now, but he takes forever to reply (especially with the hours he works now) so it may be tomorrow before I can say for sure which of Labour/UKIP he voted for in 2015.
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
Any experienced and clued up campaign team will get a very good idea of the result at the verification stage, anything between one and three hours before the count finishes. It is of course a serious offence to communicate this to anyone outside the count, although judging by the number of journalists clearly getting tip offs, some people aren't quite as worried by this as they used to be. When mobile phones became widespread, maintaining complete secrecy at a count became very difficult.
For once, Houghton and Sunderland South might be interesting in itself.
Just imagine if it is a Tory gain.....
I wasn't going that far, but there's 14k votes between the Tories and Labour. If that grows 16k+ then May might be looking forward to a very bad night. Conversely, if it's 11k or less then she might be looking at a very good one.
Quite a substantial UKIP vote there, would be very bad if the Tories were going backwards. Yeah, a gain would be out of this world good for the Tories. But I just want to imagine what the reaction on here would be like...
How much can we read into it?
I'm pretty sure that Northern Kippers are a different flavour to Southern Kippers, and have a different switchiness as a result. But then, do we have much in the way of data to support that? (Local elections perhaps.)
"(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 7h7 hours ago
Labour insiders also think Bolsover is in play for the Tories. Say that Skinner has done relatively little work on the ground in the seat."
Double bluff?
Almost feels like hunchman is right, like the Tories are trying to get Labour to commit resources to Bolsover to save Skinner to get a clearer run elsewhere.
I have to feel that having represented a seat for 47 years, losing it to your most bitter enemy would be the most tremendous psychological blow though.
"(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 7h7 hours ago
Labour insiders also think Bolsover is in play for the Tories. Say that Skinner has done relatively little work on the ground in the seat."
There's always a handful of results that draw gasps, but I don't think that will be it. On my list, I think Moray and Caroline Flint losing Don Valley would probably be the standout moments. I think John Mann will just about hold on to Bassetlaw - at least I hope he does as he is one of my favourite Labour MP's.
I think Labour will hang on in Rochdale too, but I would personally like Danczuk to do well. Don't see it though.
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
I think they'll get about 40% and 40 seats. I agree with your list except I think Angus should be a bit further up it.
1) If you take it at face value (Labour might support an IndyRef too!) it pushes potential SLAB->SNP switchers back into the SLAB column
2) It coalesces the Unionist vote behind the Tories, who I think Sturgeon has more to fear in this campaign
3) It makes her look seriously rattled.
Sturgeon is no fool, we all know that, and it is a hell of a claim to make (even if it is true), there has to be an angle beyond those three options. Can anyone think of it?
Trying to drive a wedge between the Unionist parties to undermine anti-Indy tactical voting?
I think the Hemsworth and Bolsover talk is a ruse by the Tories to try to scare Labour into thinking they're in trouble in both those, in the hope of drawing away Labour resources from elsewhere eg Don Valley, Pensitone & Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, Wakefield and Derbyshire NE which are the ones they think they can win.
As I posted below, Dan Hodges seems to think Bolsover is a genuine worry for Labour.
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
I live in Edinburgh SW. We have had 4 Conservative mailings (2 local, 2 national), 1 SNP, no Labour or Lib Dem. No canvassers. I'm not sure if that fits the story that the Unionist parties are going easy on each other in trying to lever out the SNP. Anyway, it will be interesting.
BTW that second Conservative leaflet had a barchart that was correctly scaled! I wonder if they'd noticed that we'd put their first (creative) bar chart up on a thread here?
So the people of North Norfolk are going to take lots of notice of a failed UKIP Councillor from Cambridgeshire?
Norman is a political opponent but I like and admire him. He has carved-out a big personal vote. But last time his majority was cut to 4000, which was squeaky-bum-time and UKIP scored 8000. Can he hang on?
North Norfolk is a banana-shaped constituency that hugs the coast. It's split east/west on either side of the A140 Norwich-Cromer road. To the west is all tweedy Brexity. To the east is all yellowy-sandals - mainly in North Walsham [pop incl nearby villages 40000].
The Conservative masterstroke is to select a candidate who was born in Norwich but grew up in North Walsham - a Tory Cuckoo in the LibDem nest. Oh yes, and being married to the Leader of the House of Lords can't harm. Lot's of social depth there.
It's going to be close. But with the LibDem /surge evaporating, it's going to be difficult to see him retaining it. Yes, the LibDems took County Council seats last month. But a few concentrated hotspots get diluted across the whole piece. A few County Council seats are an unreliable guide in this area, where there are a few Councillors, who command a personal vote too.
Still, Norman shouldn't be too downhearted. I've lined him up a job in public law if he's interested next week. That is if his 'fragrant' wife Mary can keep him off the tennis court.
Hmm I heard the same regarding Adrian Sanders in Torbay in 2015. At the end of the day if the numbers stack up, he'll drop.
The reason Normal Lamb is considered to be in trouble is the 16% ukip vote but in the locals the libs won local seats from the tories. I do think the UKIP vote will collapse but it's a question as to whether all of it goes tory.
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
Given the LD domination of Edinburgh West in both Holyrood and last month's locals (combined with the problems of the former MP), I think it's by far the most likely LD gain in the whole country.
You think? I'm not sure you've said that before.
People keep suggesting it isn't a cast iron LD gain so they need to be telt.
I've yet to see anyone on here claim that.
Well, Lord Ashcroft's model doesn't think it's a cast iron LD gain at least.
It hardly sounds like the kind of thing that slips out by accident, and I don't think she's that kind of person. So, what does she think the upside is?
I can't think of one, no even convoluted 12 dimensional chess type things.
The only vague possibility is that this will shift Unionist Labour votes to Con and, barring constituencies already lost to Con like AWK and BRS Sturgeon thinks the SNP can face down Tory surges elsewhere? So split vote in North &Leith and Easy Lothian? Thats bloody thin I must admit.
Unless it's part of the SNP's long term strategy of having the Tories as the primary Unionist party - but still, big risk doing it this close to the election and seeing tactical unionist voters swing behind the Tories.
I was wondering earlier whether Sturgeon would try to lay into Dugdale to dent whatever Labour surge there is north of the border, but thought she was best off leaving Dugdale and Davidson to fight it out for the mantle of biggest unionist party. Maybe she really is seeing canvassing reports unionist voters coming in behind Labour in Central Belt seats.
"(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 7h7 hours ago
Labour insiders also think Bolsover is in play for the Tories. Say that Skinner has done relatively little work on the ground in the seat."
There's always a handful of results that draw gasps, but I don't think that will be it. On my list, I think Moray and Caroline Flint losing Don Valley would probably be the standout moments. I think John Mann will just about hold on to Bassetlaw - at least I hope he does as he is one of my favourite Labour MP's.
I think Labour will hang on in Rochdale too, but I would personally like Danczuk to do well. Don't see it though.
I think Blyth Valley might be another one for Labour. It's one of only 3 seats to start counting on Friday morning.
Evening all, been watching the Scottish Leaders Debate. Fiery, polite and no-one has made a gaff thus far.
Re Scotland, I will be disappointed if Scons don't take more than 5 seats from SNP. Would not be surprised to see SCons in double figures and SNP down into low to mid 40s. Other than possibly East Lothian which could go 3 ways I really cant see SLAB picking up anything and will be surprised of LibDems pick up more than Edinburgh West. People dismiss the Tory chances there and yes while LibDems might be favourites to take it, remember until 1997 it was a Tory seat with Lord James Douglas-Hamilton so not impossible if unlikely. Edinburgh N and Leith could spring a surprise. Remember Ruth Davidson is MSP for Edinburgh Central so a "Ruth effect" may help the Tories over the line in both the North-east and South-west of Edinburgh. Apart from anything I would love to see my old mate Iain finally get elected.
I just am not seeing anything or hearing anything which suggests the LibDems are going to recapture my home seat C,S & ER. The 2 largest communities in the constituency, Wick and Thurso both now have a Tory Councillor and the Tory candidate is the Thurso one. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but I remember seeing a chart which showed it was the Tories who were second behind the SNP in 1st Preference votes last month in the Council elections, not the LibDems.
For me the perfect Portillo moment will be to see either Angus Robertson (whom I like) or Alex Salmond being ditched.
Re the locals, you are correct. However, the LDs didn't stand in every ward, so it's tough to make comparisons.
Independent candidates in Thurso and Wick polled 4 times as many votes as the Conservatives . Who knows where their vote will go on Thursday ?
"(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 7h7 hours ago
Labour insiders also think Bolsover is in play for the Tories. Say that Skinner has done relatively little work on the ground in the seat."
Double bluff?
Almost feels like hunchman is right, like the Tories are trying to get Labour to commit resources to Bolsover to save Skinner to get a clearer run elsewhere.
I have to feel that having represented a seat for 47 years, losing it to your most bitter enemy would be the most tremendous psychological blow though.
AIUI Skinner is so lazy that the Bolsover CLP is said to have literally no voter ID data whatsoever. So Labour is starting from scratch as far as canvassing is concerned and won't really have any idea how it is going.
"(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 7h7 hours ago
Labour insiders also think Bolsover is in play for the Tories. Say that Skinner has done relatively little work on the ground in the seat."
Double bluff?
Almost feels like hunchman is right, like the Tories are trying to get Labour to commit resources to Bolsover to save Skinner to get a clearer run elsewhere.
I have to feel that having represented a seat for 47 years, losing it to your most bitter enemy would be the most tremendous psychological blow though.
Skinner expires as the declaration is made in desperate attempt to not concede to a Tory?
Hmmm. Just seems so...normal for a Con vs Corbyn election, as if the last 4 weeks mean nothing. Which I suppose is possible, but still.
I've been of the opinion that, normally, election campaigns always end up changing nothing. It's normally the media and political narrative which is more often what changes. Opinion polling outside of a general election is an OK to good indicator of where people are but when the campaign starts supporters become engaged more than the normal folk and can cause issues.
I'd be happy if once the official campaign started no poll could be published (it'd cause issues here though I realise)
I bet at the start of the campaign Labour would have agreed with you on no polls.
The 'campaigns change nothing' rule, or almost nothing, I can well believe. I think drifts one way or another may not mean much. I struggle to maintain that belief when the polls shift so massively, and some of the fundamentals too (leadership, etc). It feels like something is happening. But at the same time, given there is electoral proof Labour were in a bad way prior to the GE, it would be so much of a shock for so many to change so much so quickly.
An oddity of Chris Hanretty's forecast is that although he's predicting a 100 seat majority for the Tories he's saying Labour will gain both seats in Pembrokeshire from the Conservatives. Unless the map hasn't been updated.
"(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 7h7 hours ago
Labour insiders also think Bolsover is in play for the Tories. Say that Skinner has done relatively little work on the ground in the seat."
There's always a handful of results that draw gasps, but I don't think that will be it. On my list, I think Moray and Caroline Flint losing Don Valley would probably be the standout moments. I think John Mann will just about hold on to Bassetlaw - at least I hope he does as he is one of my favourite Labour MP's.
I think Labour will hang on in Rochdale too, but I would personally like Danczuk to do well. Don't see it though.
I think Blyth Valley might be another one for Labour. It's one of only 3 seats to start counting on Friday morning.
I'm on that at 4-1. Was very close on local results so if the campaign has made no difference should be a gain. OTOH Tories were a way behind in Bolsover wards.
So the people of North Norfolk are going to take lots of notice of a failed UKIP Councillor from Cambridgeshire?
Norman is a political opponent but I like and admire him. He has carved-out a big personal vote. But last time his majority was cut to 4000, which was squeaky-bum-time and UKIP scored 8000. Can he hang on?
North Norfolk is a banana-shaped constituency that hugs the coast. It's split east/west on either side of the A140 Norwich-Cromer road. To the west is all tweedy Brexity. To the east is all yellowy-sandals - mainly in North Walsham [pop incl nearby villages 40000].
The Conservative masterstroke is to select a candidate who was born in Norwich but grew up in North Walsham - a Tory Cuckoo in the LibDem nest. Oh yes, and being married to the Leader of the House of Lords can't harm. Lot's of social depth there.
It's going to be close. But with the LibDem /surge evaporating, it's going to be difficult to see him retaining it. Yes, the LibDems took County Council seats last month. But a few concentrated hotspots get diluted across the whole piece. A few County Council seats are an unreliable guide in this area, where there are a few Councillors, who command a personal vote too.
Still, Norman shouldn't be too downhearted. I've lined him up a job in public law if he's interested next week. That is if his 'fragrant' wife Mary can keep him off the tennis court.
Hmm I heard the same regarding Adrian Sanders in Torbay in 2015. At the end of the day if the numbers stack up, he'll drop.
The reason Normal Lamb is considered to be in trouble is the 16% ukip vote but in the locals the libs won local seats from the tories. I do think the UKIP vote will collapse but it's a question as to whether all of it goes tory.
An oddity of Chris Hanretty's forecast is that although he's predicting a 100 seat majority for the Tories he's saying Labour will gain both seats in Pembrokeshire from the Conservatives. Unless the map hasn't been updated.
He mentions the map on the link on the text "Why do these individual seat predictions not exactly match the aggregate seat predictions shown above?"
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
I live in Edinburgh SW. We have had 4 Conservative mailings (2 local, 2 national), 1 SNP, no Labour or Lib Dem. No canvassers. I'm not sure if that fits the story that the Unionist parties are going easy on each other in trying to lever out the SNP. Anyway, it will be interesting.
BTW that second Conservative leaflet had a barchart that was correctly scaled! I wonder if they'd noticed that we'd put their first (creative) bar chart up on a thread here?
I think that it is probably a 50/50 chance so the current 6/4 available on the Tories is reasonable value. Indeed Sturgeon might of just pushed a few Labour voters towards the Blue challenger in Edin SW with her latest remarks on the leaders debate . I'm sure Ms Cherry will be delighted!
So the people of North Norfolk are going to take lots of notice of a failed UKIP Councillor from Cambridgeshire?
Norman is a political opponent but I like and admire him. He has carved-out a big personal vote. But last time his majority was cut to 4000, which was squeaky-bum-time and UKIP scored 8000. Can he hang on?
North Norfolk is a banana-shaped constituency that hugs the coast. It's split east/west on either side of the A140 Norwich-Cromer road. To the west is all tweedy Brexity. To the east is all yellowy-sandals - mainly in North Walsham [pop incl nearby villages 40000].
The Conservative masterstroke is to select a candidate who was born in Norwich but grew up in North Walsham - a Tory Cuckoo in the LibDem nest. Oh yes, and being married to the Leader of the House of Lords can't harm. Lot's of social depth there.
It's going to be close. But with the LibDem /surge evaporating, it's going to be difficult to see him retaining it. Yes, the LibDems took County Council seats last month. But a few concentrated hotspots get diluted across the whole piece. A few County Council seats are an unreliable guide in this area, where there are a few Councillors, who command a personal vote too.
Still, Norman shouldn't be too downhearted. I've lined him up a job in public law if he's interested next week. That is if his 'fragrant' wife Mary can keep him off the tennis court.
Hmm I heard the same regarding Adrian Sanders in Torbay in 2015. At the end of the day if the numbers stack up, he'll drop.
The reason Normal Lamb is considered to be in trouble is the 16% ukip vote but in the locals the libs won local seats from the tories. I do think the UKIP vote will collapse but it's a question as to whether all of it goes tory.
Some of his forecasts make YouGov look sensible. I guess both of them demonstrate how difficult it is to make seat predictions based on data only, and not 'feel' and some local knowledge?
All the models have that problem it seems - no matter how much they might overall capture the mood, some places are just going to go in a different way, and that doesn't mean the model is bad - although I suppose if dozens end up nowhere near, we'll have our proof.
It hardly sounds like the kind of thing that slips out by accident, and I don't think she's that kind of person. So, what does she think the upside is?
I can't think of one, no even convoluted 12 dimensional chess type things.
The only vague possibility is that this will shift Unionist Labour votes to Con and, barring constituencies already lost to Con like AWK and BRS Sturgeon thinks the SNP can face down Tory surges elsewhere? So split vote in North &Leith and Easy Lothian? Thats bloody thin I must admit.
Unless it's part of the SNP's long term strategy of having the Tories as the primary Unionist party - but still, big risk doing it this close to the election and seeing tactical unionist voters swing behind the Tories.
I was wondering earlier whether Sturgeon would try to lay into Dugdale to dent whatever Labour surge there is north of the border, but thought she was best off leaving Dugdale and Davidson to fight it out for the mantle of biggest unionist party. Maybe she really is seeing canvassing reports unionist voters coming in behind Labour in Central Belt seats.
Yes, trying to stop SCon to SLAB, and SLD to SLAB tactical voting is the only one that makes sense.
Still, Norman shouldn't be too downhearted. I've lined him up a job in public law if he's interested next week. That is if his 'fragrant' wife Mary can keep him off the tennis court.
My hunch is the Tories will just fall short of beating John Major's 14.1 million votes in 1992. A lower turnout compared to then will be the main reason.
Hmmm. Just seems so...normal for a Con vs Corbyn election, as if the last 4 weeks mean nothing. Which I suppose is possible, but still.
In 1987 the campaign seemed to count for very little. Everyone said Kinnock won it easily but he only reduced the Tory majority slightly.
1987 was a really 'regional' election though. Labour took seats off the Tories in Scotland including Edinburgh South, and did much better in the North compared to the South. My list is pretty 'regional' in reverse for the Tories this time. I don't expect them to do that well in the M3 / M4 corridor which was relatively Remain last year, but their majorities are so large in the main there that nothing will change. I think they will cut the majority in Slough (Fiona MacTaggart not standing) but don't see them taking it.
I wouldn't gasp if it transpires that Bolsover goes blue at the same time as Battersea goes red. This is going to be an election in which party coalitions are remade.
It's hilarious to read some of the anecdotes on here and see them put forward as being a bellwether for the election. They normally go as follows Madge from the chippie has voted Labour all her life but now says she loves May. This then equates to a huge majority!
I'll have you know Madge is a dear friend of mine, and her views not to be mocked, sir/madam!
Everyone I meet says they love Mrs May and despise Jeremy Corbyn. If we in the hedgefund office think that then it must be true, after all we are the masters of the universe.
Meanwhile the cleaners exchange winks, and walk away...
Good thing the cleaners are all Eastern European and can't vote!
But they listen to the people who can...
And? I think you need to finish that sentence as non voters listening to voters won't make a huge amount of difference to anyone.
My hunch is the Tories will just fall short of beating John Major's 14.1 million votes in 1992. A lower turnout compared to then will be the main reason.
Totally agreed - I think they will be somewhere around 13.5m if I had to guess.
On another note, I've got the Tories failing to take Luton S. I know they've been pouring resources into it, but its a long way demographically from the seat they last held in 1992.
My hunch is the Tories will just fall short of beating John Major's 14.1 million votes in 1992. A lower turnout compared to then will be the main reason.
Some of his forecasts make YouGov look sensible. I guess both of them demonstrate how difficult it is to make seat predictions based on data only, and not 'feel' and some local knowledge?
All the models have that problem it seems - no matter how much they might overall capture the mood, some places are just going to go in a different way, and that doesn't mean the model is bad - although I suppose if dozens end up nowhere near, we'll have our proof.
The errors do cancel each out to a degree, it is statistically near impossible for the errors to all be wrong in the same direction.
If some seats see bigger swings than UNS, then others will swing less.
@kezdugdale: Any suggestion that I ever said to Sturgeon that I'd change Labour's position on #indyref2 is a categoric lie + shows how desperate she is
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
If you've got Alyn & Deeside, Clywd South and Delyn going blue, then there is no way Wrexham wouldn't also fall. It's a straight Lab/Con fight with Plaid and the Libs nowhere and UKIP not standing this time; the Con candidate has been working hard on the seat for years and is well liked locally. Of the 4 NE Wales seats it will fall first.
Sorry,realised I missed the following Tory gains from Labour off that list:
Wolverhampton SW, Workington, Wrexham and Worsley & Eccles S (the other Manchester Evening News article that mentioned Labour in trouble in the Greater Manchester area) - they were in a different column in my notes that I missed - my apologies.
Worsley and Eccles South? Really? Iwent on the guided busway through W&ES the other day. It really does lookrather nice, in the sun. And I saw a socio-economic map of Greater Manchester which had a surprisingly dark red (symbolsing affluence) there. But really, I can't see it... I also struggle with Wrexham. But I think that's the name - I associate the seat with the very WC town and its coalfield - I know there's nice bits too.
I think the Hemsworth and Bolsover talk is a ruse by the Tories to try to scare Labour into thinking they're in trouble in both those, in the hope of drawing away Labour resources from elsewhere eg Don Valley, Pensitone & Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, Wakefield and Derbyshire NE which are the ones they think they can win.
I think the Hemsworth and Bolsover talk is a ruse by the Tories to try to scare Labour into thinking they're in trouble in both those, in the hope of drawing away Labour resources from elsewhere eg Don Valley, Pensitone & Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, Wakefield and Derbyshire NE which are the ones they think they can win.
As I posted below, Dan Hodges seems to think Bolsover is a genuine worry for Labour.
Hodges has been bonkers for some time.
The bookmakers don't seem to think Labour is in much trouble in those two. The odds on Skinner winning Bolsover rose to about 1.29 and are back down to 1.1.
Other 80-somethings are probably more likely to lose their seats, e.g. Winnick and Flynn.
Yep. And she's a demon on the tennis court with ladies of a certain age. My wife has been known to make up a double. But has made her excuses and left when the talk turns to politics.
Still, Norman shouldn't be too downhearted. I've lined him up a job in public law if he's interested next week. That is if his 'fragrant' wife Mary can keep him off the tennis court.
They have to be odds on. But I personally like Lamb, and were I in the constituency, I would vote for him.
With you on Norfolk N, the UKIP intervention there is very helpful to Norman Lamb. I don't like many Lib Dems, not least for their whole Brexit stance, but I hope Lamb holds on. I've got Southport as a Lib Dem hold - it logically says Tory gain, but Southport always seems to do the opposite of what you expect. Is Sue McGuire seen as a good Lib Dem candidate there?
"(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 7h7 hours ago
Labour insiders also think Bolsover is in play for the Tories. Say that Skinner has done relatively little work on the ground in the seat."
There's always a handful of results that draw gasps, but I don't think that will be it. On my list, I think Moray and Caroline Flint losing Don Valley would probably be the standout moments. I think John Mann will just about hold on to Bassetlaw - at least I hope he does as he is one of my favourite Labour MP's.
I think Labour will hang on in Rochdale too, but I would personally like Danczuk to do well. Don't see it though.
I think Blyth Valley might be another one for Labour. It's one of only 3 seats to start counting on Friday morning.
I'm on that at 4-1. Was very close on local results so if the campaign has made no difference should be a gain. OTOH Tories were a way behind in Bolsover wards.
That is my hesitation.
But, still, many really do believe it is in play. So do I.
I have a lot of confidence in Crosby/Messina's analysis.
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
Any experienced and clued up campaign team will get a very good idea of the result at the verification stage, anything between one and three hours before the count finishes. It is of course a serious offence to communicate this to anyone outside the count, although judging by the number of journalists clearly getting tip offs, some people aren't quite as worried by this as they used to be. When mobile phones became widespread, maintaining complete secrecy at a count became very difficult.
We both understand that which is why on the night you will see lots of phrases like Party X look very relaxed and happy Party Y are looking pensive and concerned Party Z have gone for a smoke and a curry and will be back in 2 hours time to barrack the winner.
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
I think you have forgotten about Stirling. Isn't that more likely to drop than Ochil?
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
I think they'll get about 40% and 40 seats. I agree with your list except I think Angus should be a bit further up it.
The SNP start on 55% in Angus and unlike most other seats has been Nationalist for 20 years. I just don't think there is enough votes from the LD,UKIP and LAB voters from last time to help the Tories win. And since I am on the Tories at less than 9.5 seats in Scotland Edinburgh SW is a good place to stop!
It seems the pb Tories (of whom I am one, I suppose) have swung from gloom and/or panic to mania, on the basis of, well, nothing much, in the last 24 hours.
Have we had a prediction competition? Normally the predictionds describe a fairly normal distribution - this time, I suspect we get a bimodal distribution, with one cluster around almost no change and another around 40-50 Tory gains. All very strange.
My prediction is Tories net gain +10, SNP net loss -10, everyone else balances out.
The very fact the LibDems didn't stand a candidate in each ward speaks volumes. From memory in 2012 they did. Generally in the Highlands, Independent councillors have tended to be Tory leaning or in many cases Tory party members. There has long been a tradition of Highland Tories thinking party politics rather vulgar at local level. This year is the first time the Tories have managed a broad slate of candidates. In Tain, his (and my) home town Jamie Stone came 2nd behind the new SNP councillor. The former Independent Alistair Rhind who is a Tory lost in part because he was opposed by a non-paper official Tory candidate for the first time in decades and lost out and in part because he pushed through an unpopular decision re the siting of a new Tain Royal Academy building.
Re the locals, you are correct. However, the LDs didn't stand in every ward, so it's tough to make comparisons.
Independent candidates in Thurso and Wick polled 4 times as many votes as the Conservatives . Who knows where their vote will go on Thursday ?
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
Any experienced and clued up campaign team will get a very good idea of the result at the verification stage, anything between one and three hours before the count finishes. It is of course a serious offence to communicate this to anyone outside the count, although judging by the number of journalists clearly getting tip offs, some people aren't quite as worried by this as they used to be. When mobile phones became widespread, maintaining complete secrecy at a count became very difficult.
We both understand that which is why on the night you will see lots of phrases like Party X look very relaxed and happy Party Y are looking pensive and concerned Party Z have gone for a smoke and a curry and will be back in 2 hours time to barrack the winner.
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
If you've got Alyn & Deeside, Clywd South and Delyn going blue, then there is no way Wrexham wouldn't also fall. It's a straight Lab/Con fight with Plaid and the Libs nowhere and UKIP not standing this time; the Con candidate has been working hard on the seat for years and is well liked locally. Of the 4 NE Wales seats it will fall first.
Sorry,realised I missed the following Tory gains from Labour off that list:
Wolverhampton SW, Workington, Wrexham and Worsley & Eccles S (the other Manchester Evening News article that mentioned Labour in trouble in the Greater Manchester area) - they were in a different column in my notes that I missed - my apologies.
Worsley and Eccles South? Really? Iwent on the guided busway through W&ES the other day. It really does lookrather nice, in the sun. And I saw a socio-economic map of Greater Manchester which had a surprisingly dark red (symbolsing affluence) there. But really, I can't see it... I also struggle with Wrexham. But I think that's the name - I associate the seat with the very WC town and its coalfield - I know there's nice bits too.
Wrexham has been drifting away long term from Labour for a long time now with over 5k UKIP votes up for grabs.
Worsley and Eccles South was mentioned in the Manchester Evening News article earlier today that Labour are worried. It's a bit of stretch for the Tories, but there is a big UKIP vote there to exploit.
Still, Norman shouldn't be too downhearted. I've lined him up a job in public law if he's interested next week. That is if his 'fragrant' wife Mary can keep him off the tennis court.
"(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 7h7 hours ago
Labour insiders also think Bolsover is in play for the Tories. Say that Skinner has done relatively little work on the ground in the seat."
LOL! Now that would be popcorn time!
Skinner's clearly done nothing in about three decades, just weighed the vote. It'd be bloody funny if he got upended by a Tory.
The reason why he doesn't have to do much work at election time is because he represents his constituents so well between elections.
Well if he were to lose apparently he doesn't do so well enough anymore.
I still think it is wishful thinking from the Tories though.
I agree, but the comment that he has "done nothing" for about 30 years has not tallied with the perception of his electorate during that time. Since he is a Leaver, I doubt he'll have any trouble getting re-elected. He has also been one of extremely few MPs who have never been bought off by all the Westminster crap.
@MilesBriggsMSP: News Labour plan to drop their opposition to #IndyRef2 is shocking, but Sturgeon clearly cannot be trusted with private talks. #Scotdebates
I wouldn't gasp if it transpires that Bolsover goes blue at the same time as Battersea goes red. This is going to be an election in which party coalitions are remade.
I agree with your earlier suggestion that UNS is about to die at this election. There's going to be a lot more seats changing hands than the headline figures on Friday might suggest. If I were to stick my neck out I'd say about 90 changes, for a gain of 60 for the Tories overall.
Maybe Sturgeon was talking to Corbyn recently and got mixed up?
I'm guessing this all just boils down to different representations of Labour's nuanced/wishy-washy (delete as appropriate) position, which is essentially that they don't support a second referendum but also don't see it as appropriate for Westminster to block it.
By the way, big props to @hunchman@Danny565@Saltire for the predictions. We'll see what happens 48 hours from now as the exit poll is released!
Thanks @Sandpit. I was thinking around a Tory 70 majority towards the end of last week when the Labour opinion poll surge was at its height. I've just been hearing too much Labour negative stuff outside of London since then. The Labour Uncut article last night (forget the name of the guy who was accurate in 2015 IIRC) was a big confirmation for me of moving back to around a 100 Tory majority.
Labour have fallen hook line and sinker into the massive bear trap of this Slough speech.
The Tories can now spend the entire day tomorrow saying that Labour care more about the human rights of terrorists than the rights of innocent Britons.
The thing is.... the LibDem voters in North Norfolk are all getting on a bit. Many of them are dying off. That's how the Tories took the Council in 2011 without putting up candidates in all the seats and retained most of those in 2015. Yes, there's been leakage in focused Council by elections since but that's where the LDs do well with their mobile troops.
A normal constituency will have a 8pc voter churn per year - that is, most people will move every 12 years. Now, I know some people move within the constituency but in places like North Norfolk a disproportionate number of them move to another place the other side of St Peter's Pearly Gates.
The point is that the number of people who remember that nice young Mr Lamb is diminishing as age claims them. And that means incumbency isn't what it was for him.
Meanwhile - in Norwich South - remember that the number of electors registered to vote in University Ward [University of East Anglia] is 35% down on what theory would suggest. And even if the youngsters had registered to vote [which they haven't], they're all on holiday now anyway.
That's the funny thing with Universities nowadays and their new fangled semesters. They break-up for the Summer hols in Mid May and don't come back until Late Sept.
So Labour's hopes of domination in the 'Southern University Towns' suffer from a double whammy that the pollsters have missed:
1 Many of the youngsters who say they'll vote for Corbyn aren;t registered to vote 2 Even if they are, they're on holiday 3 Or lusting after Jessica on Love Island
1) If you take it at face value (Labour might support an IndyRef too!) it pushes potential SLAB->SNP switchers back into the SLAB column
2) It coalesces the Unionist vote behind the Tories, who I think Sturgeon has more to fear in this campaign
3) It makes her look seriously rattled.
Sturgeon is no fool, we all know that, and it is a hell of a claim to make (even if it is true), there has to be an angle beyond those three options. Can anyone think of it?
If Scotland was a straight Tory /SNat fight she would be very confident of winning a Referendum ??
Telegraph have a big splash on Corbyn being monitored.
And the headline links to a 404 page
Something coming up, although it's hardly a surprise to anyone here that special branch and MI5 have a fucking big file on Jeremy Corbyn dating back 40 years.
OK, final prediction from me. Can't get as precise as you guys down thread.
I am going for Tory majority 73.
Sorry to be pedantic, but an odd majority is mathematically impossible given a house of 650 MP's. The Speaker (Bercow will hold Buckingham) technically adds 1 to the Conservative tally, although whether he is really a Tory any longer is a moot point!
Sorry, I missed the Scottish debate tonight. Is Sturgeon claiming Dugdale said she would support an Indyref2? That seems incredibly unlikely to me. Nicola is losing the plot.
Tomorrows papers. Theresa May 'I will change human rights laws if they stop me from dealing with terrorists'
Popular move and over to Jeremy. 'Will you'
Popular in the target seats where it matters, not in London or Remainerstan.
I would have thought it would receive wide spread approval
Just been highlighted on BBC news
If the Tories win this election, it will be because of a pull from xenophobia (Brexit: the Lab-UKIP-Con effect) and a push from terrorism (Manchester and London). Nothing to do with "the economy" or the NHS or whatever else is on pollsters' lists.
Telegraph have a big splash on Corbyn being monitored.
And the headline links to a 404 page
Something coming up, although it's hardly a surprise to anyone here that special branch and MI5 have a fucking big file on Jeremy Corbyn dating back 40 years.
I believe that to be true based on what I know, but I won't divulge details as I'd probably get into trouble with the moderators if I did.
Comments
I REALLY fancied a girl at Uni-she was the full Green ticket/ eco-gimp/card board sandals/no deodorant etc- I would do anything to get a chance of getting her into bed-i even went to some green talks and helped deliver some leaflets etc.
I still voted Con in 87
And, No, sadly i got absolutely nowhere near her "green space"
Can't remember re my dad but he may have voted UKIP back then as well. He either voted Labour or UKIP. I'll text him just now, but he takes forever to reply (especially with the hours he works now) so it may be tomorrow before I can say for sure which of Labour/UKIP he voted for in 2015.
I'm pretty sure that Northern Kippers are a different flavour to Southern Kippers, and have a different switchiness as a result. But then, do we have much in the way of data to support that? (Local elections perhaps.)
I have to feel that having represented a seat for 47 years, losing it to your most bitter enemy would be the most tremendous psychological blow though.
I think Labour will hang on in Rochdale too, but I would personally like Danczuk to do well. Don't see it though.
Hope it is ok two days time!
BTW that second Conservative leaflet had a barchart that was correctly scaled! I wonder if they'd noticed that we'd put their first (creative) bar chart up on a thread here?
So the people of North Norfolk are going to take lots of notice of a failed UKIP Councillor from Cambridgeshire?
Norman is a political opponent but I like and admire him. He has carved-out a big personal vote. But last time his majority was cut to 4000, which was squeaky-bum-time and UKIP scored 8000. Can he hang on?
North Norfolk is a banana-shaped constituency that hugs the coast. It's split east/west on either side of the A140 Norwich-Cromer road. To the west is all tweedy Brexity. To the east is all yellowy-sandals - mainly in North Walsham [pop incl nearby villages 40000].
The Conservative masterstroke is to select a candidate who was born in Norwich but grew up in North Walsham - a Tory Cuckoo in the LibDem nest. Oh yes, and being married to the Leader of the House of Lords can't harm. Lot's of social depth there.
It's going to be close. But with the LibDem /surge evaporating, it's going to be difficult to see him retaining it. Yes, the LibDems took County Council seats last month. But a few concentrated hotspots get diluted across the whole piece. A few County Council seats are an unreliable guide in this area, where there are a few Councillors, who command a personal vote too.
Still, Norman shouldn't be too downhearted. I've lined him up a job in public law if he's interested next week. That is if his 'fragrant' wife Mary can keep him off the tennis court.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
The reason Normal Lamb is considered to be in trouble is the 16% ukip vote but in the locals the libs won local seats from the tories. I do think the UKIP vote will collapse but it's a question as to whether all of it goes tory.
This might get the LDs over the line...
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/senior-ukip-figure-peter-reeve-urges-people-in-north-norfolk-to-vote-liberal-democrat-1-5047185
I was wondering earlier whether Sturgeon would try to lay into Dugdale to dent whatever Labour surge there is north of the border, but thought she was best off leaving Dugdale and Davidson to fight it out for the mantle of biggest unionist party. Maybe she really is seeing canvassing reports unionist voters coming in behind Labour in Central Belt seats.
The 'campaigns change nothing' rule, or almost nothing, I can well believe. I think drifts one way or another may not mean much. I struggle to maintain that belief when the polls shift so massively, and some of the fundamentals too (leadership, etc). It feels like something is happening. But at the same time, given there is electoral proof Labour were in a bad way prior to the GE, it would be so much of a shock for so many to change so much so quickly.
OTOH Tories were a way behind in Bolsover wards.
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/senior-ukip-figure-peter-reeve-urges-people-in-north-norfolk-to-vote-liberal-democrat-1-5047185
AVE IT projects CON gain in Norfolk North...
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/senior-ukip-figure-peter-reeve-urges-people-in-north-norfolk-to-vote-liberal-democrat-1-5047185
The UKIP vote in North Norfolk collapsed in the CC elections . It mostly went to the Lib Dems .
Possibly she just has lost her marbles
Skinner's clearly done nothing in about three decades, just weighed the vote. It'd be bloody funny if he got upended by a Tory.
That's real value.
On another note, I've got the Tories failing to take Luton S. I know they've been pouring resources into it, but its a long way demographically from the seat they last held in 1992.
If some seats see bigger swings than UNS, then others will swing less.
My model came out with 104 majority, too.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/872038440203935744
Iwent on the guided busway through W&ES the other day. It really does lookrather nice, in the sun. And I saw a socio-economic map of Greater Manchester which had a surprisingly dark red (symbolsing affluence) there. But really, I can't see it...
I also struggle with Wrexham. But I think that's the name - I associate the seat with the very WC town and its coalfield - I know there's nice bits too.
Other 80-somethings are probably more likely to lose their seats, e.g. Winnick and Flynn.
Popular move and over to Jeremy. 'Will you'
I still think it is wishful thinking from the Tories though.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
But, still, many really do believe it is in play. So do I.
I have a lot of confidence in Crosby/Messina's analysis.
Party X look very relaxed and happy
Party Y are looking pensive and concerned
Party Z have gone for a smoke and a curry and will be back in 2 hours time to barrack the winner.
And since I am on the Tories at less than 9.5 seats in Scotland Edinburgh SW is a good place to stop!
Have we had a prediction competition? Normally the predictionds describe a fairly normal distribution - this time, I suspect we get a bimodal distribution, with one cluster around almost no change and another around 40-50 Tory gains. All very strange.
My prediction is Tories net gain +10, SNP net loss -10, everyone else balances out.
I didn't recognise any of the songs in the first 45 minutes!
Is Wes safe for Labour now?
Re the locals, you are correct. However, the LDs didn't stand in every ward, so it's tough to make comparisons.
Independent candidates in Thurso and Wick polled 4 times as many votes as the Conservatives . Who knows where their vote will go on Thursday ?
I am going for Tory majority 73.
How anyone can say that she is a better leader than Corbyn, with her electoral record, is beyond me.
Worsley and Eccles South was mentioned in the Manchester Evening News article earlier today that Labour are worried. It's a bit of stretch for the Tories, but there is a big UKIP vote there to exploit.
NEW THREAD
Does The National want rid of Sturgeon ?
She comes across as untrustworthy and desperate.
The Tories can now spend the entire day tomorrow saying that Labour care more about the human rights of terrorists than the rights of innocent Britons.
Bravo chaps, bravo.
A normal constituency will have a 8pc voter churn per year - that is, most people will move every 12 years. Now, I know some people move within the constituency but in places like North Norfolk a disproportionate number of them move to another place the other side of St Peter's Pearly Gates.
The point is that the number of people who remember that nice young Mr Lamb is diminishing as age claims them. And that means incumbency isn't what it was for him.
Meanwhile - in Norwich South - remember that the number of electors registered to vote in University Ward [University of East Anglia] is 35% down on what theory would suggest. And even if the youngsters had registered to vote [which they haven't], they're all on holiday now anyway.
That's the funny thing with Universities nowadays and their new fangled semesters. They break-up for the Summer hols in Mid May and don't come back until Late Sept.
So Labour's hopes of domination in the 'Southern University Towns' suffer from a double whammy that the pollsters have missed:
1 Many of the youngsters who say they'll vote for Corbyn aren;t registered to vote
2 Even if they are, they're on holiday
3 Or lusting after Jessica on Love Island
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Something coming up, although it's hardly a surprise to anyone here that special branch and MI5 have a fucking big file on Jeremy Corbyn dating back 40 years.
*wondering what country to emigrate to*
Try TinWood -based about 5 miles away
https://www.tinwoodestate.com/
Seriously goo stuff.