The 10,000 stuff probably just spin. It does seem she keeps going to labour marginals.
Remember last time, when the Tories got the wobbles they sent Cameron to sure up all sorts of places.
Messina / Textor might have this totally wrong, but I don't think it is they haven't got a clue what they are doing. I am absolutely sure there is a plan based upon the polling numbers they have.
As I said previous few days, the lack of panic says to me they think they are fine and YouGov are wrong*. Now the brain trust have made the big mistake of their whole careers, we will know in a few days.
It's worth considering what information they have that we don't. Their pollsters are no better than the public pollsters (indeed normally they use public pollsters), though they can use them to probe the effectiveness of specific messages (which at this point is more or less irrelevant - no time to launch a new message). They will have reports from the postal votes (yes, illegal and difficult, but now part of the normal landscape). That will give a fair idea...of the postal votes (20% of the total, mostly from 2 weeks ago). And they'll have impressions from canvassers, which I would not think would be very reliable guides.
So they're a bit better off than we are in terms of information, but not magicians. My guess is that the PVs are telling them not to worry too much about losing many seats (which all the polls suggest is more or less correct), and also that sallies into places like Bolsover are just for publicity and to rattle opponents. That leaves the moderately achievable Labour marginals, which is where they're sending the troops.
On the Labour side, the organisation is still playing defence for the most part, but because the membership is much larger and Momentum has successfully mobilised a lot of their people, there are also enthusiastic local efforts going on in the Tory marginals. If Labour gets lucky with turnout, those could catch the Tories out in a string of fairly close seats. If we don't, well, it keeps the seats in play for next time. Meanwhile, Corbyn is best deployed speaking to big enthusiastic rallies with a fair chance of TV coverage - it's a waste to have him turning up to meet small random groups. I think he came to Broxtowe because the seat is basically Guardian vs Telegraph (indeed Sainsbury stocks more Morning Stars than Daily Expresses) so there are a lot of big fans and we were able to get a huge crowd.
You've managed to omit the most crucial thing; all the social networking data from Facebook and other sites which gives better granularity about where their support lies than any other source.
That's what Vote Leave spent 90% of their budget on, to great effect.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Aside: plenty of men *really* hate Jeremy Corbyn. I had several (entertaining, of course) vitriolic rants about him whilst canvassing. Meanwhile, women were much more sympathetic to him, although still hesitant.
I've just realised (one of) the reasons I'd make a terrible party leader:
When faced with a map of blue with an island of red, I'd focus on gaining that island of red regardless of the situation on the ground, just to make the map look neater.
Likewise, I'd quite like to have many strips coast-to-coast.
Basically I'd develop a strategy to make a map look good ...
I think like you.
Lol that is exactly what I'd do.......I'd want some tory blue right slap bang middle of tyne and wear and birmingham.
Why is May in Slough? Surely that is safe as houses for Labour? 34% british white, wrong demographics, no?
Has anyone got any ideas of what could be the 'Portillo Moment' of this election?
I think Norfolk North could be entertaining at 5am (estimated) but with a Tory landslide or a Labour surge who could we be remembering fondly for the next 20 years?
I've just realised (one of) the reasons I'd make a terrible party leader:
When faced with a map of blue with an island of red, I'd focus on gaining that island of red regardless of the situation on the ground, just to make the map look neater.
Likewise, I'd quite like to have many strips coast-to-coast.
Basically I'd develop a strategy to make a map look good ...
I think like you.
Lol that is exactly what I'd do.......I'd want some tory blue right slap bang middle of tyne and wear and birmingham.
Why is May in Slough? Surely that is safe as houses for Labour? 34% british white, wrong demographics, no?
I'm afraid I'm getting tired of this site does anyone believe they can shift opinion by posting their party view on here? No
I heartily endorse your comments on respecting others point of view, but I think you may have a misconception about why most people engage in political debate online - it certainly has little to do with believing they can shift opinion or, in all honesty, engaging in actual political debate.
It's relaxing (outside GE time), to get into the cut and thrust of things, but few opinions are changed, and few are even trying to make that happen.
Problem is I want to know what's going on in the ground war, we all made our mind up somewhere between the cradle and the grave. To me the most interesting posts are from people out there doing the work, all respect to them, done it and have the t shirt. Even poll analysis is less interesting is what real people think of what real people are are doing. Many canversers miss read what they are being told but after 30 odd years at the game you can make an educated guess
I strongly dislike Chuka Umunna. Reminds me of Blair in all the bad ways, smarmy and slimy. I can't see the membership going for him after his behaviour during the 2015 leadership campaign either.
This campaign has been too dominated by McDonnell (who has all the same baggage as Corbyn plus a bit more) and Abbott (whose deficiencies have been on display for all to see this past fortnight) to make judgement of the real candidates possible.
Previously I've found it hard to see past Clive Lewis, but he hasn't been prominent at all - presumably by design, and likely partly because he's had to focus on his local campaign.
The one (!) other Shadow Cabinet member I've seen anything notable from is Barry Gardiner, who had a couple of impressive (though relatively minor) media appearances. His support for the Iraq War might well work against him, but if he can convince the members that he has learned from the party's mistakes in the early 2000s he just may be a dark horse contender.
Interesting thing about Chuka is that he supported Ed's bid for the leadership back in 2010. He's always characterised as a Blairite, but I'd have thought if he was that to the right of the party he would have supported David instead.
I also like Clive Lewis too. Would give the left of the party what they want in terms of socio-economic policies but none of the baggage of McDonnell and Corbyn. I'm not to the left as Lewis, but I'd happily vote for a Labour party under him.
And no to Barry Gardiner. He's a great addition to the Shadow Cabinet though.
I was all on the Clive Lewis train until he made an idiot of himself with the Article 50 nonsense.
Yes, I didn't like that either. I voted Remain last year, and am moderately Pro-EU, but you have to respect the people's wishes, even if you disagree with them, and voting against Article 50 went against that. I also found him voting against having the GE odd too, but I think he did that for his own self-interest (fear of losing his seat, basically).
Still, there are not many politicians out there whose actions I always approve of.
The 10,000 stuff probably just spin. It does seem she keeps going to labour marginals.
Remember last time, when the Tories got the wobbles they sent Cameron to sure up all sorts of places.
Messina / Textor might have this totally wrong, but I don't think it is they haven't got a clue what they are doing. I am absolutely sure there is a plan based upon the polling numbers they have.
As I said previous few days, the lack of panic says to me they think they are fine and YouGov are wrong*. Now the brain trust have made the big mistake of their whole careers, we will know in a few days.
It's worth considering what information they have that we don't. Their pollsters are no better than the public pollsters (indeed normally they use public pollsters), though they can use them to probe the effectiveness of specific messages (which at this point is more or less irrelevant - no time to launch a new message). They will have reports from the postal votes (yes, illegal and difficult, but now part of the normal landscape). That will give a fair idea...of the postal votes (20% of the total, mostly from 2 weeks ago). And they'll have impressions from canvassers, which I would not think would be very reliable guides.
So they're a bit better off than we are in terms of information, but not magicians.
Yes. I think they are being very complacent once again, as they were from the start.
The 10,000 stuff probably just spin. It does seem she keeps going to labour marginals.
Remember last time, when the Tories got the wobbles they sent Cameron to sure up all sorts of places.
Messina / Textor might have this totally wrong, but I don't think it is they haven't got a clue what they are doing. I am absolutely sure there is a plan based upon the polling numbers they have.
As I said previous few days, the lack of panic says to me they think they are fine and YouGov are wrong*. Now the brain trust have made the big mistake of their whole careers, we will know in a few days.
And they'll have impressions from canvassers, which I would not think would be very reliable guides.
In 2010 Cameron got 10.7m votes increasing to 11.3m in 2015. Its clear that plenty of pb tories loathe May, for whatever reason. I'm interested what number she has to attain to get some grudging respect from them.
I've just realised (one of) the reasons I'd make a terrible party leader:
When faced with a map of blue with an island of red, I'd focus on gaining that island of red regardless of the situation on the ground, just to make the map look neater.
Likewise, I'd quite like to have many strips coast-to-coast.
Basically I'd develop a strategy to make a map look good ...
I think like you.
Lol that is exactly what I'd do.......I'd want some tory blue right slap bang middle of tyne and wear and birmingham.
Why is May in Slough? Surely that is safe as houses for Labour? 34% british white, wrong demographics, no?
Big speech about security including saying she will not let human rights lawyers get in her way on restricting or deporting terrorists. Really well received and highlighted on BBC
Horrible PPB for the Tories. Sounds like it could have been written by Nigel farage. A call to arms for the Remainers to vote against her. She mentioned how wonderful Brexit was about 10 times.
If she didn't vote Leave she's an accomplished hypocrite
In York she is like Nestle taking over Rowntrees .
Powell’s contention, based upon his experience in India, was that a failure to integrate foreign communities into the social fabric of a nation would lead to them forming their own separate social groups, and that this being the case, in times particularly of economic strife, violence would emerge as the cleavages between the interests of the local community and that of the newcomers became increasingly apparent and caused inter-ethnic friction"
There are those who would point out that by the late 1940s he was looking at the end result of 200 years of British rule on a subcontinent that in 1700 was estimated to have had 27% of the worlds GDP and by the 1940's was poverty stricken having had its wealth hoovered up back to Britain (the Americans then hoovered it all off us to pay for them to fight in two world wars), they might also tell you that the sub-continent had little history of inter-community violence in its pre-British history and that the development of inter-community 'cleavage' was an active component of British policy for 100 years post the mutiny to avoid any unified Indian uprising.
The roots of this stuff lie very deep
What a lot of hairy bollocks. Just the most laughable, risible bullshit, disprovable after 2 minutes of googling.
"the sub-continent had little history of inter-community violence in its pre-British history "
"Will Durant states that Hindus were historically persecuted during Islamic rule of the Indian subcontinent.[19] The total number of deaths of this period, are usually attributed to the figure by Prof. K.S. Lal, who estimated that between the years 1000 AD and 1500 AD the population of Hindus decreased by 80 million"
"According to autobiographical historical record of Emperor Babur, Tuzak-i Babari, Babur's campaign in northwest India targeted Hindu and Sikh pagans as well as apostates (non-Sunni sects of Islam), and immense number of infidels were killed, with Muslim camps building "towers of skulls of the infidels" on hillocks"
I know little more than you do, you could take it up with the author he seems reasonably qualified by comparison
Shashi Tharoor served for twenty-nine years at the UN, culminating as Under-Secretary General. He is a Congress MP in India, the author of fourteen previous books and has won numerous literary awards, including a Commonwealth Writers' Writers' Prize. Tharoor has a PhD from the Fletcher School and was named by the World Economic Forum in Davos in 1998 as a Global Leader of Tomorrow.
Aside: plenty of men *really* hate Jeremy Corbyn. I had several (entertaining, of course) vitriolic rants about him whilst canvassing. Meanwhile, women were much more sympathetic to him, although still hesitant.
Corbyn has a dark horse Cassavona air that I find loathsome.
he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous
the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years
When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.
And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.
he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing
Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd have been deposed by the Europhobes within his own party. There were many mechanisms by which they could have done it: moving to UKIP and putting pressure on that way being one.
As the referendum showed the eurosceptics were in the minority. You constantly overestimate their pull and the desire of the conservatives to stick in government. Most of the defections had taken place over a long period of time. Even when carswell left there was no great movement to UKIP.
The issue Cameron had is that he spent to much time on "detox" and drove away lots of his core supporters. That's why he failed to break 40% in ant election, something Mrs May looks likelyto do.
The reason Mrs May (a remainer) will break 40 percent is because UKIP and the Lib Dems are an irrelevance and Corbyn is leader of the Labour party.
Cameron had to spend so much time on detox because of the mess the cretins on the right made last time the Tories were in power. Sometimes I think parts of the Tory party are physically unable to think of anything bar Europe. It's almost unnatural.
Nothing remotely Corbyn related trending on twitter or bbc. Meanwhile Abbott still near the top of the Daily Mail's stories, and the BTL stuff not too helpful for Labour either on story #1.
Hello! After a hiatus of nearly 11 months, I think it's finally time to make a comeback.
What a shower of an election campaign! The pitiful lack of political talent on display in all parties this election has been plain for all to see. Still it makes life interesting for political cognoscenti like ourselves on here.
And I think we have an equal lack of talent amongst some opinion pollsters! YouGov's absolute nonsense of a seat like Canterbury being in play and the 18-24's turning out in numbers equivalent to the over 65's, plus all other constituency implausibilities has been unbelievably amateurish. Survation's sample in its last poll showing that 40% of the sample watched the QT debate last Friday, when we know it was about 10% of the electorate shows the dangers of a self selecting sample. And just how representative are you if you have the time (and inclination) to fill in all of YouGov's questions.
Welcome back Hunchman. It is good to see the old names returning.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous
the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years
When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.
And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.
he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing
Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd have been deposed by the Europhobes within his own party. There were many mechanisms by which they could have done it: moving to UKIP and putting pressure on that way being one.
As the referendum showed the eurosceptics were in the minority. You constantly overestimate their pull and the desire of the conservatives to stick in government. Most of the defections had taken place over a long period of time. Even when carswell left there was no great movement to UKIP.
The issue Cameron had is that he spent to much time on "detox" and drove away lots of his core supporters. That's why he failed to break 40% in any election, something Mrs May looks likelyto do.
The Eurosceptics in the party were exceptionally noisy and threatened to utterly destabilise him. Remember not just the two defections to UKIP, but the many rumoured defections. It's almost impossible to run a party in that environment, and it would have got worse if he hadn't held the referendum.
And *If* his detoxification 'drove away lots of his core supporters', then he gained more. Which is why he beat Howards' result in 2005. As it happens, May's lost my vote in this election, despite the obvious attraction (ahem) of Heidi Allen.
(On a side note, the Lib Dems seem to be making a fair effort here in South Cambridgeshire. Surprisingly, as she has a >20,000 vote cushion).
Has anyone got any ideas of what could be the 'Portillo Moment' of this election?
I think Norfolk North could be entertaining at 5am (estimated) but with a Tory landslide or a Labour surge who could we be remembering fondly for the next 20 years?
If it goes well for the Tories: Jack Dromey.
If it goes well for Labour: Amber Rudd.
Bonuses: Nick Clegg, Angus Robertson.
Farron, in my next door constituency, locally he was very popular, and a good local MP. I think his turn as leader has done him no career favours. Oh and Dromey as runner up.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
Wonder if that is more useful than ten thousand canvassers pounding the pavements.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Nothing remotely Corbyn related trending on twitter or bbc. Meanwhile Abbott still near the top of the Daily Mail's stories, and the BTL stuff not too helpful for Labour either on story #1.
Have the Corbynistas given up ?
2 days out from election day and the campaign didn't even make any of the headlines on the BBC 1pm News that I saw this afternoon.
he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous
the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years
When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.
And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.
he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing
Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd have been deposed by the Europhobes within his own party. There were many mechanisms by which they could have done it: moving to UKIP and putting pressure on that way being one.
As the referendum showed the eurosceptics were in the minority. You constantly overestimate their pull and the desire of the conservatives to stick in government. Most of the defections had taken place over a long period of time. Even when carswell left there was no great movement to UKIP.
The issue Cameron had is that he spent to much time on "detox" and drove away lots of his core supporters. That's why he failed to break 40% in ant election, something Mrs May looks likelyto do.
The reason Mrs May (a remainer) will break 40 percent is because UKIP and the Lib Dems are an irrelevance and Corbyn is leader of the Labour party.
Cameron had to spend so much time on detox because of the mess the cretins on the right made last time the Tories were in power. Sometimes I think parts of the Tory party are physically unable to think of anything bar Europe. It's almost unnatural.
the reason cameron couldnt cross forty is because he pissed off too many of his natural supporters so they stopped voting conservative
In 2010 Cameron got 10.7m votes increasing to 11.3m in 2015. Its clear that plenty of pb tories loathe May, for whatever reason. I'm interested what number she has to attain to get some grudging respect from them.
I don't loathe May, I am simply fustrated that she is running against the most easy opponents a Tory PM has faced er...ever, and she is still making a hash of it. The E.U is watching all this, and will think LOL she aint so tough after all.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
I don't find it scornful, I find it rather baffling because the content is usually just cliche ridden stuff, I don't know why people get so euphoric about it.
Horrible PPB for the Tories. Sounds like it could have been written by Nigel farage. A call to arms for the Remainers to vote against her. She mentioned how wonderful Brexit was about 10 times.
If she didn't vote Leave she's an accomplished hypocrite
You forgot the old meme Roger. We are all Leavers now. Okay maybe not exactly true but with 60-70% polling that they just want us to get on with it all and get out, she has a very large portion of the electorate available to listen to her. Remainers who were that commmited to their cause will already have chosen against the Tories. Indeed they will have chosen the only party making any serious suggestion that we might stay in which is the Lib Dems. And as you can see they are floundering and will be lucky to even keep the same number of MPs as they have now.
So I think you will have to accept that an 'anti-Brexit' vote in this GE has withered on the vine.
U have to think these rallies are a sign of enthusiasm. Like Trump's. There will be an increase of labour share on thursday and noth just amongst the young.
These are nothing like the same scale or size or marginality of Trump's rallies.
I've just realised (one of) the reasons I'd make a terrible party leader:
When faced with a map of blue with an island of red, I'd focus on gaining that island of red regardless of the situation on the ground, just to make the map look neater.
Likewise, I'd quite like to have many strips coast-to-coast.
Basically I'd develop a strategy to make a map look good ...
I think like you.
Lol that is exactly what I'd do.......I'd want some tory blue right slap bang middle of tyne and wear and birmingham.
Why is May in Slough? Surely that is safe as houses for Labour? 34% british white, wrong demographics, no?
Fiona Mactaggart has stood down. The new Labour candidate Tanmanjeet Singh Dhesi was a controversial choice.
Liz Truss was there last Tuesday, Philip Hammond was there on Thursday, Boris Johnson was there on Friday, and both Boris and Theresa today.
They won't be working Slough hard for the good of their health.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
Wonder if that is more useful than ten thousand canvassers pounding the pavements.
In some ways, perhaps - firing up the base, and creating at the least the impression of a swelling army of support, well, it has to have some effect surely? People will see it, wonder if there is something in it. Whereas I've never seen a canvasser (missed a UKIP one last time when I nipped out for some sausages - and now they'd re done I doubt I'll ever see one).
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
Wonder if that is more useful than ten thousand canvassers pounding the pavements.
Do canvassers really change minds? Thought the main point was to gain information, and get out the vote.
This campaign may have longstanding consequences. Corbyn has performed much better than expected; unless he goes down to an absolute trouncing then he'll survive; if he gets a higher percentage vote than Brown or Miliband then he's safe.
Conversely, the perception (real, IMO) that May's performed badly in this campaign will have long-term repercussions. Unless she get a mahoosive majority, her MPs will be looking at her and wondering if she will be the person to lead them into another campaign in five years.
So Corbyn's probably safe (unless he loses massively), whilst May's probably damaged (unless she wins big).
Even if she wins big. Let's suppose there is a Tory landslide: who will credit Theresa May? What will she have a mandate for? Brexit means Brexit is a slogan, not a policy. Is anyone -- MP or voter -- any the wiser as to her vision, her programme, what Mayism is?
No. Even if there is a landslide, Theresa May is toast and Crosby and Messina will be given as much loot and as many baubles as they wish for.
The Tories are ruthless with their leaders but they do give them time even if they snatch mediocraty from the jaws of a landslide. It'll be the brexit deal that decides whether TM gets another election.
as for JC he'll probably stay until he wants to leave if he gets more votes than GB or EM.
I think it's moot about the next GE as I can't see TM wanting to carry on beyond 2021/22.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
Wonder if that is more useful than ten thousand canvassers pounding the pavements.
Do canvassers really change minds? Thought the main point was to gain information, and get out the vote.
he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous
the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years
When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.
And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.
he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing
Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd one.
As the referendum showed the eurosceptics were "detox" and drove away lots of his core supporters. That's why he failed to break 40% in any election, something Mrs May looks likelyto do.
The Eurosceptics in the party were exceptionally noisy and threatened to utterly destabilise him. Remember not just the two defections to UKIP, but the many rumoured defections. It's almost impossible to run a party in that environment, and it would have got worse if he hadn't held the referendum.
And *If* his detoxification 'drove away lots of his core supporters', then he gained more. Which is why he beat Howards' result in 2005. As it happens, May's lost my vote in this election, despite the obvious attraction (ahem) of Heidi Allen.
(On a side note, the Lib Dems seem to be making a fair effort here in South Cambridgeshire. Surprisingly, as she has a >20,000 vote cushion).
Im surprised at you
if theres one thing Ive learned on PB its shouty people only speak for themselves, its why twitter is useless as an indicator and you should never trust a cybernat
as for losing your support, well she gains mine and probably more as the results will show
Has anyone got any ideas of what could be the 'Portillo Moment' of this election?
I think Norfolk North could be entertaining at 5am (estimated) but with a Tory landslide or a Labour surge who could we be remembering fondly for the next 20 years?
U have to think these rallies are a sign of enthusiasm. Like Trump's. There will be an increase of labour share on thursday and noth just amongst the young.
These are nothing like the same scale or size or marginality of Trump's rallies.
Is your rumour London seat Chingford?
Wimbledon actually ! I've had a pound on the yellow peril ther - probably just overworries from CCHQ seeing as Twickenham is seemingly going yellow.
Nothing remotely Corbyn related trending on twitter or bbc. Meanwhile Abbott still near the top of the Daily Mail's stories, and the BTL stuff not too helpful for Labour either on story #1.
Have the Corbynistas given up ?
2 days out from election day and the campaign didn't even make any of the headlines on the BBC 1pm News that I saw this afternoon.
Really low key, tepid campaign.
It has been awful. The only memorable moment was probably Diane Abbots maths meltdown.
In 2010 Cameron got 10.7m votes increasing to 11.3m in 2015. Its clear that plenty of pb tories loathe May, for whatever reason. I'm interested what number she has to attain to get some grudging respect from them.
I don't loathe May, I am simply fustrated that she is running against the most easy opponents a Tory PM has faced er...ever, and she is still making a hash of it. The E.U is watching all this, and will think LOL she aint so tough after all.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
I don't find it scornful, I find it rather baffling because the content is usually just cliche ridden stuff, I don't know why people get so euphoric about it.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Why on Earth would anyone do that?
I'm sure there was some piece after 2015 which suggested that some polling asked voting intention, which would overestimate Labour, but the answers to other questions in the same poll made it clear, in hindsight, that they actually would vote Tory.
I find it hard to believe a Corbyn fan online would vote Tory though.
Has anyone got any ideas of what could be the 'Portillo Moment' of this election?
I think Norfolk North could be entertaining at 5am (estimated) but with a Tory landslide or a Labour surge who could we be remembering fondly for the next 20 years?
If it goes well for the Tories: Jack Dromey.
If it goes well for Labour: Amber Rudd.
Bonuses: Nick Clegg, Angus Robertson.
Mhairi Black deposed by Slab.
Oh that was like be utterly glorious. I would cheer on SLAB for that contest.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Why on Earth would anyone do that?
Because pretending you are a Leftie on social media is sensible .
he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous
the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years
When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.
And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.
he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing
Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd one.
As the referendum showed the eurosceptics were "detox" and drove away lots of his core supporters. That's why he failed to break 40% in any election, something Mrs May looks likelyto do.
The Eurosceptics in the party were exceptionally noisy and threatened to utterly destabilise him. Remember not just the two defections to UKIP, but the many rumoured defections. It's almost impossible to run a party in that environment, and it would have got worse if he hadn't held the referendum.
And *If* his detoxification 'drove away lots of his core supporters', then he gained more. Which is why he beat Howards' result in 2005. As it happens, May's lost my vote in this election, despite the obvious attraction (ahem) of Heidi Allen.
(On a side note, the Lib Dems seem to be making a fair effort here in South Cambridgeshire. Surprisingly, as she has a >20,000 vote cushion).
Im surprised at you
if theres one thing Ive learned on PB its shouty people only speak for themselves, its why twitter is useless as an indicator and you should never trust a cybernat
as for losing your support, well she gains mine and probably more as the results will show
The Europhobes weren't just shouting. They were campaigning against their own leader. If he hadn't held the referendum they'd have got rid of him.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Oh, quite.
There might be an element of the reverse. Corbyn is the button marked 'do not push' that people might feel a rush of blood to push once confronted with a ballot paper.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
Wonder if that is more useful than ten thousand canvassers pounding the pavements.
Do canvassers really change minds? Thought the main point was to gain information, and get out the vote.
150-200 good quality 10-minute conversations with said waverers in seats with only 300-400 votes in them can make a difference, even make *the* difference, yes.
Obviously those tend to have more punch if they're from the candidate, or a cabinet minister, but not always.
Sometimes people just want to be fairly listened to and understood before making their minds up, and that's the difference between them voting for you, or not.
In 2010 Cameron got 10.7m votes increasing to 11.3m in 2015. Its clear that plenty of pb tories loathe May, for whatever reason. I'm interested what number she has to attain to get some grudging respect from them.
I don't loathe May, I am simply fustrated that she is running against the most easy opponents a Tory PM has faced er...ever, and she is still making a hash of it. The E.U is watching all this, and will think LOL she aint so tough after all.
Cameron v Brown was easier
It was indeed. And even there he managed to throw it away. Calling him third rate was being too kind to him.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
I don't find it scornful, I find it rather baffling because the content is usually just cliche ridden stuff, I don't know why people get so euphoric about it.
Not sure I would describe the crowd as "euphoric". Enthusiastic, yes. Corbyn gives the same speech every time, sure, but the point is the local paper. Confused as to why it makes a difference whether it is Ladywood or Solihull. The point is to draw a decent crowd from the conurbation, and get some free newspaper coverage. Worked here in the NE last night.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Yes indeed. Mrs Jayfdee has been horrified about the abuse on FB, she made the mistake of commenting, sometimes better to just agree in public, and vote in private.
he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous
the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years
When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.
And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.
he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing
Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd one.
As the referendum showed the eurosceptics were "detox" and drove away lots of his core supporters. That's why he failed to break 40% in any election, something Mrs May looks likelyto do.
The Eurosceptics in the party were exceptionally noisy and threatened to utterly destabilise him. Remember not just the two defections to UKIP, but the many rumoured defections. It's almost impossible to run a party in that environment, and it would have got worse if he hadn't held the referendum.
And *If* his detoxification 'drove away lots of his core supporters', then he gained more. Which is why he beat Howards' result in 2005. As it happens, May's lost my vote in this election, despite the obvious attraction (ahem) of Heidi Allen.
(On a side note, the Lib Dems seem to be making a fair effort here in South Cambridgeshire. Surprisingly, as she has a >20,000 vote cushion).
Im surprised at you
if theres one thing Ive learned on PB its shouty people only speak for themselves, its why twitter is useless as an indicator and you should never trust a cybernat
as for losing your support, well she gains mine and probably more as the results will show
The Europhobes weren't just shouting. They were campaigning against their own leader. If he hadn't held the referendum they'd have got rid of him.
he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous
the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years
When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.
And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.
he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing
Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd have been deposed by the Europhobes within his own party. There were many mechanisms by which they could have done it: moving to UKIP and putting pressure on that way being one.
As the referendum showed the eurosceptics were in the minority. You constantly overestimate their pull and the desire of the conservatives to stick in government. Most of the defections had taken place over a long period of time. Even when carswell left there was no great movement to UKIP.
The issue Cameron had is that he spent to much time on "detox" and drove away lots of his core supporters. That's why he failed to break 40% in ant election, something Mrs May looks likelyto do.
The reason Mrs May (a remainer) will break 40 percent is because UKIP and the Lib Dems are an irrelevance and Corbyn is leader of the Labour party.
Cameron had to spend so much time on detox because of the mess the cretins on the right made last time the Tories were in power. Sometimes I think parts of the Tory party are physically unable to think of anything bar Europe. It's almost unnatural.
the reason cameron couldnt cross forty is because he pissed off too many of his natural supporters so they stopped voting conservative
it had bugger all to do with europe
Lol. Are you suggesting that Ukip didn't cost the Tories enough votes to get more than 40 percent in 2015? Really? Or were they nothing to do with Europe?
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Oh, quite.
There might be an element of the reverse. Corbyn is the button marked 'do not push' that people might feel a rush of blood to push once confronted with a ballot paper.
Is this the people "totally bottling when they get inside the polling booth and are faced with the 'Leave' box", phenomenon?
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Why on Earth would anyone do that?
I'm sure there was some piece after 2015 which suggested that some polling asked voting intention, which would overestimate Labour, but the answers to other questions in the same poll made it clear, in hindsight, that they actually would vote Tory.
I find it hard to believe a Corbyn fan online would vote Tory though.
A lot will just stay silent, and then possibly vote Tory. The loudest voices online in 2015 were Labour, in my social media circles anyway.
he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous
the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years
When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.
And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.
he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing
Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd one.
As the referendum showed the eurosceptics were "detox" and drove away lots of his core supporters. That's why he failed to break 40% in any election, something Mrs May looks likelyto do.
The Eurosceptics in the party were exceptionally noisy and threatened to utterly destabilise him. Remember not just the two defections to UKIP, but the many rumoured defections. It's almost impossible to run a party in that environment, and it would have got worse if he hadn't held the referendum.
And *If* his detoxification 'drove away lots of his core supporters', then he gained more. Which is why he beat Howards' result in 2005. As it happens, May's lost my vote in this election, despite the obvious attraction (ahem) of Heidi Allen.
(On a side note, the Lib Dems seem to be making a fair effort here in South Cambridgeshire. Surprisingly, as she has a >20,000 vote cushion).
Im surprised at you
if theres one thing Ive learned on PB its shouty people only speak for themselves, its why twitter is useless as an indicator and you should never trust a cybernat
as for losing your support, well she gains mine and probably more as the results will show
The Europhobes weren't just shouting. They were campaigning against their own leader. If he hadn't held the referendum they'd have got rid of him.
How did you vote in 2015? UKIP?
I voted Cameron in 2010, spoilt my vote in 2015
ive never voted kipper
That is exactly what I did. This time, I've voted LD for purely local reasons.
In 2010 Cameron got 10.7m votes increasing to 11.3m in 2015. Its clear that plenty of pb tories loathe May, for whatever reason. I'm interested what number she has to attain to get some grudging respect from them.
I don't loathe May, I am simply fustrated that she is running against the most easy opponents a Tory PM has faced er...ever, and she is still making a hash of it. The E.U is watching all this, and will think LOL she aint so tough after all.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Why on Earth would anyone do that?
Because pretending you are a Leftie on social media is sensible .
And voting for the Conservatives is sensible.
To re-coin an old phrase: Vote Tory, Tweet Labour?
Ed Miliband was bullied near the end of the 2015 campaign. The truth is though sympathy is the worst of all political looks. Bullying Works in politics
Miliband was bullied over his appearance, voice and way he ate (!)
Abbott has been criticised for being spectacularly incompetent. Thornberry is a woman and hasn't got stick, Chuka is black and hasn't got stick. I feel sorry for her because she has been humiliated, but she hasn't been bullied
Yes. Politics can be brutal as hell, it can be unfair. Being mocked and criticised for demonstrable failings is not bullying.
That's the thing with Abbott. It's hardly as if she does not have a reasonably sharp mind - she held her own on this week although Andrew Neil was not necessarily in seek and destroy mode.
It is very disappointing that this gets made out to be a bullying thing. We expect our politicians to be well briefed on their area. This is the weakness of Corbyn his team does not reflect the best of labour, but the rump of willing to serve for him.
The one that gets me is Angela Rayner - I've heard her use ickle for little in a news interview. This is the person who wants to be responsible for education standards.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Oh, quite.
There might be an element of the reverse. Corbyn is the button marked 'do not push' that people might feel a rush of blood to push once confronted with a ballot paper.
"Some humans would do anything to see if it was possible to do it. If you put a large switch in some cave somewhere, with a sign on it saying "End-of-the-World Switch. PLEASE DO NOT TOUCH", the paint wouldn't even have time to dry."
he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous
the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years
When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.
And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.
he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing
Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd one.
As the referendum showed the eurosceptics were "detox" and drove away lots of his core supporters. That's why he failed to break 40% in any election, something Mrs May looks likelyto do.
The Eurosceptics in the party were exceptionally noisy and threatened to utterly destabilise him. Remember not just the two defections to UKIP, but the many rumoured defections. It's almost impossible to run a party in that environment, and it would have got worse if he hadn't held the referendum.
And *If* his detoxification 'drove away lots of his core supporters', then he gained more. Which is why he beat Howards' result in 2005. As it happens, May's lost my vote in this election, despite the obvious attraction (ahem) of Heidi Allen.
(On a side note, the Lib Dems seem to be making a fair effort here in South Cambridgeshire. Surprisingly, as she has a >20,000 vote cushion).
Im surprised at you
if theres one thing Ive learned on PB its shouty people only speak for themselves, its why twitter is useless as an indicator and you should never trust a cybernat
as for losing your support, well she gains mine and probably more as the results will show
The Europhobes weren't just shouting. They were campaigning against their own leader. If he hadn't held the referendum they'd have got rid of him.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Why on Earth would anyone do that?
I'm sure there was some piece after 2015 which suggested that some polling asked voting intention, which would overestimate Labour, but the answers to other questions in the same poll made it clear, in hindsight, that they actually would vote Tory.
I find it hard to believe a Corbyn fan online would vote Tory though.
He thinks pollees who were going to vote Con would say Lab to pollsters as a kind of consolation prize to Miliband. A bit like insincerely "liking" a post on facebook.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
I don't find it scornful, I find it rather baffling because the content is usually just cliche ridden stuff, I don't know why people get so euphoric about it.
the free owls or kittens you get for going?
Just be thankfully he is not offering free x boxes and I phones
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Why on Earth would anyone do that?
I'm sure there was some piece after 2015 which suggested that some polling asked voting intention, which would overestimate Labour, but the answers to other questions in the same poll made it clear, in hindsight, that they actually would vote Tory.
I find it hard to believe a Corbyn fan online would vote Tory though.
A lot will just stay silent, and then possibly vote Tory. The loudest voices online in 2015 were Labour, in my social media circles anyway.
As in so many ways, Corbyn and co are hoping this time will be different. It's possible, but they are relying a lot changing.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
Wonder if that is more useful than ten thousand canvassers pounding the pavements.
Rob - you need to correct Opinium to 6 June, not 6 April!
FWIW, I have finally decided to vote for my Stella Creasy in Walthamstow, not that she'll need my vote to romp home.(she has been a good and popular MP) This is not through any enthusiasm for Corbyn, but more the thought of Theresa May winning the popular vote by a huge margin. Ceredigion where my Dad lives, and I'm from, will be mighty close, but Mark Williams is also popular and diligent and I think the Liberal tradition there will see him home just. My guess for the overall outcome is status quo. TMIPM but for her personally its been a disaster and for Corbyn and his organising team a triumph.
One aspect we haven't heard much talk of is the respective financial spend of each party. I can't believe that the unions have stumped up as much for Labour as Conservative Central Office had to spend - does anyone know what the war chests were? Does it even matter anymore with 24 hour rolling news and social media? Haven't seen a single billboard advert the whole campaign.
he could just have ignored them like he had for many years previous
the Tories had lost most of the so called headbangers over the years
When had he 'ignored them' ? The coalition made an EU referendum in the 2010 parliament impossible. He held one a little over a year after getting a working majority. Even then, europhobes on here were complaining that that was too long.
And the headbangers like IDS, Fox, Jackson and others were still firmly agitating within the party.
people always agitate within parties, Cameron had been ignoring his right wing since 2008 and there wasnt much they could do about it.
he called the referendum simply because he thought he win it. The timing, agenda and rules were all to his choosing
Rubbish. If he hadn't called the EU referendum he'd have been deposed by the Europhobes within his own party. There were many mechanisms by which they could have done it: moving to UKIP and putting pressure on that way being one.
As the referendum showed the eurosceptics were in the minority. You constantly overestimate their pull and the desire of the conservatives to stick in government. Most of the defections had taken place over a long period of time. Even when carswell left there was no great movement to UKIP.
The issue Cameron had is that he spent to much time on "detox" and drove away lots of his core supporters. That's why he failed to break 40% in ant election, something Mrs May looks likelyto do.
The reason Mrs May (a remainer) will break 40 percent is because UKIP and the Lib Dems are an irrelevance and Corbyn is leader of the Labour party.
Cameron had to spend so much time on detox because of the mess the cretins on the right made last time the Tories were in power. Sometimes I think parts of the Tory party are physically unable to think of anything bar Europe. It's almost unnatural.
the reason cameron couldnt cross forty is because he pissed off too many of his natural supporters so they stopped voting conservative
it had bugger all to do with europe
Lol. Are you suggesting that Ukip didn't cost the Tories enough votes to get more than 40 percent in 2015? Really? Or were they nothing to do with Europe?
Im suggesting Cameron could have picked up more support from pissed off tories
by 2015 a lot of UKIP support was in places where noone would vote Tory
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Oh, quite.
There might be an element of the reverse. Corbyn is the button marked 'do not push' that people might feel a rush of blood to push once confronted with a ballot paper.
Is this the people "totally bottling when they get inside the polling booth and are faced with the 'Leave' box", phenomenon?
Turns out it was just Pulpstar who bottled it ;-)
I changed my mind a few days before the vote actually - just before the Jo Cox incident. Wasn't an "in the ballot box" thing at all. This election I'm voting tactically, and have done a vote swap.
In 2010 Cameron got 10.7m votes increasing to 11.3m in 2015. Its clear that plenty of pb tories loathe May, for whatever reason. I'm interested what number she has to attain to get some grudging respect from them.
I don't loathe May, I am simply fustrated that she is running against the most easy opponents a Tory PM has faced er...ever, and she is still making a hash of it. The E.U is watching all this, and will think LOL she aint so tough after all.
Cameron v Brown was easier
It was indeed. And even there he managed to throw it away. Calling him third rate was being too kind to him.
As a cautionary tale, Labour went all-in on the "Tories will take your free stuff away" narrative, which probably helped prevent a majority.
If we're looking at a Tory majority of 30-40 on Friday, it will probably again be because Labour brought the fruits of the money tree out.
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Oh, quite.
There might be an element of the reverse. Corbyn is the button marked 'do not push' that people might feel a rush of blood to push once confronted with a ballot paper.
I can see voters baulking at Corbyn's baggage and saying, when asked, that they wouldn't vote for a Hamas/PLO/IRA loving scumbag, but in the privacy of the polling booth they might furtively put their cross next to the red rose.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
Wonder if that is more useful than ten thousand canvassers pounding the pavements.
Rob - you need to correct Opinium to 6 June, not 6 April!
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Why on Earth would anyone do that?
Because pretending you are a Leftie on social media is sensible .
And voting for the Conservatives is sensible.
Yet almost every PB Tory goes on about their Twitter feed. Do they pretend to be Lefties? I don't do Twitter and I am a Lefty, so clearly it is not de rigeur.
Brexit Brexit Brexit seems like a great PPB for the Tories to me. I can't understand why they haven't been hammering on it directly for the campaign rather than indirectly via strong and stable.
Has anyone got any ideas of what could be the 'Portillo Moment' of this election?
I think Norfolk North could be entertaining at 5am (estimated) but with a Tory landslide or a Labour surge who could we be remembering fondly for the next 20 years?
If it goes well for the Tories: Jack Dromey.
If it goes well for Labour: Amber Rudd.
Bonuses: Nick Clegg, Angus Robertson.
Mhairi Black deposed by Slab.
Oh that was like be utterly glorious. I would cheer on SLAB for that contest.
you'll only have to wait until 2:30 (ish) for that one. could be fun especially as it's within swinging distance given NUNS (non-uniform national swing)
In 2010 Cameron got 10.7m votes increasing to 11.3m in 2015. Its clear that plenty of pb tories loathe May, for whatever reason. I'm interested what number she has to attain to get some grudging respect from them.
I don't loathe May, I am simply fustrated that she is running against the most easy opponents a Tory PM has faced er...ever, and she is still making a hash of it. The E.U is watching all this, and will think LOL she aint so tough after all.
Has anyone got any ideas of what could be the 'Portillo Moment' of this election?
I think Norfolk North could be entertaining at 5am (estimated) but with a Tory landslide or a Labour surge who could we be remembering fondly for the next 20 years?
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
Brexit Brexit Brexit seems like a great PPB for the Tories to me. I can't understand why they haven't been hammering on it directly for the campaign rather than indirectly via strong and stable.
That is indeed the question. It shoud've been Brexit morning, noon and night (that and Jezza)
How they got themselves sidetracked by social care god only knows...
Powell’s contention, based upon his experience in India, was that a failure to integrate foreign communities into the social fabric of a nation would lead to them forming their own separate social groups, and that this being the case, in times particularly of economic strife, violence would emerge as the cleavages between the interests of the local community and that of the newcomers became increasingly apparent and caused inter-ethnic friction"
There are those who would point out that by the late 1940s he was looking at the end result of 200 years of British rule on a subcontinent that in 1700 was estimated to have had 27% of the worlds GDP and by the 1940's was poverty stricken having had its wealth hoovered up back to Britain (the Americans then hoovered it all off us to pay for them to fight in two world wars), they might also tell you that the sub-continent had little history of inter-community violence in its pre-British history and that the development of inter-community 'cleavage' was an active component of British policy for 100 years post the mutiny to avoid any unified Indian uprising.
The roots of this stuff lie very deep
What a lot of hairy bollocks. Just the most laughable, risible bullshit, disprovable after 2 minutes of googling.
I know little more than you do, you could take it up with the author he seems reasonably qualified by comparison
Shashi Tharoor served for twenty-nine years at the UN, culminating as Under-Secretary General. He is a Congress MP in India, the author of fourteen previous books and has won numerous literary awards, including a Commonwealth Writers' Writers' Prize. Tharoor has a PhD from the Fletcher School and was named by the World Economic Forum in Davos in 1998 as a Global Leader of Tomorrow.
It's total crap. Horseshit. The Muslim conquest of India was as brutal as the Muslim conquest of anywhere else. The Hindus didn't invite them in and offer tea.
Then there's Timur, the Mongol warlord who conquered India in the 14th century
Like most Mongol warlords, he wasn't known for his kindness
"Scholars estimate that his military campaigns caused the deaths of 17 million people, amounting to about 5% of the world population at the time"
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Why on Earth would anyone do that?
I'm sure there was some piece after 2015 which suggested that some polling asked voting intention, which would overestimate Labour, but the answers to other questions in the same poll made it clear, in hindsight, that they actually would vote Tory.
I find it hard to believe a Corbyn fan online would vote Tory though.
A lot will just stay silent, and then possibly vote Tory. The loudest voices online in 2015 were Labour, in my social media circles anyway.
As in so many ways, Corbyn and co are hoping this time will be different. It's possible, but they are relying a lot changing.
They are yes, it may be enough to get them to victory in 2022 though. But by then I expect the Tories to have a new leader.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
Wonder if that is more useful than ten thousand canvassers pounding the pavements.
Rob - you need to correct Opinium to 6 June, not 6 April!
Brexit Brexit Brexit seems like a great PPB for the Tories to me. I can't understand why they haven't been hammering on it directly for the campaign rather than indirectly via strong and stable.
That is indeed the question. It shoud've been Brexit morning, noon and night (that and Jezza)
How they got themselves sidetracked by social care god only knows...
It was a mistake to accuse Brussels of interfering in the election because from that moment they needed to tread carefully as well and had to move on to other ground.
Seats Conservatives 344 (+13) Labour 228 (-3) SNP 47 (-9) Lib Dems 9 (+1) Others 22 (-2) TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14) Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5) Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2) Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1) Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6) Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3) Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1) Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1) Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3) Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1) Edinburgh West
Still very positive for the LDs, and Tories comparatively poorly in Scotland, compared to high predictions I see.
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
Wonder if that is more useful than ten thousand canvassers pounding the pavements.
Rob - you need to correct Opinium to 6 June, not 6 April!
LOL. Have I been in the US too long? Hmmmm,
You live in America?
PB Tories are everywhere... like a plague of locusts.
Comments
That's what Vote Leave spent 90% of their budget on, to great effect.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Why is May in Slough? Surely that is safe as houses for Labour? 34% british white, wrong demographics, no?
If it goes well for Labour: Amber Rudd.
Bonuses: Nick Clegg, Angus Robertson.
Why is May in Slough? Surely that is safe as houses for Labour? 34% british white, wrong demographics, no?
Still, there are not many politicians out there whose actions I always approve of.
Shashi Tharoor served for twenty-nine years at the UN, culminating as Under-Secretary General. He is a Congress MP in India, the author of fourteen previous books and has won numerous literary awards, including a Commonwealth Writers' Writers' Prize. Tharoor has a PhD from the Fletcher School and was named by the World Economic Forum in Davos in 1998 as a Global Leader of Tomorrow.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Inglorious-Empire-What-British-India/dp/1849048088/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1496776404&sr=8-1&keywords=shashi+tharoor+inglorious+empire
Cameron had to spend so much time on detox because of the mess the cretins on the right made last time the Tories were in power. Sometimes I think parts of the Tory party are physically unable to think of anything bar Europe. It's almost unnatural.
oh that one...
Corbyn supporters in Bristol erect banner showing Magen David earrings on Theresa May 'to highlight her relationship with Israel'"
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/labour-supporters-in-bristol-erect-banner-with-1.439599
Have the Corbynistas given up ?
And *If* his detoxification 'drove away lots of his core supporters', then he gained more. Which is why he beat Howards' result in 2005. As it happens, May's lost my vote in this election, despite the obvious attraction (ahem) of Heidi Allen.
(On a side note, the Lib Dems seem to be making a fair effort here in South Cambridgeshire. Surprisingly, as she has a >20,000 vote cushion).
Oh and Dromey as runner up.
However we will probably end up with a Tory government but I can't see May staying on as PM for very long ,she has been holed by this campaign.
She could go back to doing rash things like running through a field of wheat, you couldn't make it up!
Really low key, tepid campaign.
it had bugger all to do with europe
So I think you will have to accept that an 'anti-Brexit' vote in this GE has withered on the vine.
Liz Truss was there last Tuesday, Philip Hammond was there on Thursday, Boris Johnson was there on Friday, and both Boris and Theresa today.
They won't be working Slough hard for the good of their health.
I've taken the 3/1 on the Tories there.
Watch this space!
if theres one thing Ive learned on PB its shouty people only speak for themselves, its why twitter is useless as an indicator and you should never trust a cybernat
as for losing your support, well she gains mine and probably more as the results will show
I've had a pound on the yellow peril ther - probably just overworries from CCHQ seeing as Twickenham is seemingly going yellow.
I find it hard to believe a Corbyn fan online would vote Tory though.
I wonder whether @JackW has any personal recollections of that particular campaign?
Because pretending you are a Leftie on social media is sensible .
And voting for the Conservatives is sensible.
How did you vote in 2015? UKIP?
Obviously those tend to have more punch if they're from the candidate, or a cabinet minister, but not always.
Sometimes people just want to be fairly listened to and understood before making their minds up, and that's the difference between them voting for you, or not.
ive never voted kipper
Turns out it was just Pulpstar who bottled it ;-)
Pretty useless for Labour though.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=J3WGdJ1PkXE
"Some humans would do anything to see if it was possible to do it. If you put a large switch in some cave somewhere, with a sign on it saying "End-of-the-World Switch. PLEASE DO NOT TOUCH", the paint wouldn't even have time to dry."
- Terry Pratchett
He thinks pollees who were going to vote Con would say Lab to pollsters as a kind of consolation prize to Miliband. A bit like insincerely "liking" a post on facebook.
Ceredigion where my Dad lives, and I'm from, will be mighty close, but Mark Williams is also popular and diligent and I think the Liberal tradition there will see him home just.
My guess for the overall outcome is status quo. TMIPM but for her personally its been a disaster and for Corbyn and his organising team a triumph.
One aspect we haven't heard much talk of is the respective financial spend of each party. I can't believe that the unions have stumped up as much for Labour as Conservative Central Office had to spend - does anyone know what the war chests were? Does it even matter anymore with 24 hour rolling news and social media? Haven't seen a single billboard advert the whole campaign.
by 2015 a lot of UKIP support was in places where noone would vote Tory
This election I'm voting tactically, and have done a vote swap.
If we're looking at a Tory majority of 30-40 on Friday, it will probably again be because Labour brought the fruits of the money tree out.
Seats
Conservatives 344 (+13)
Labour 228 (-3)
SNP 47 (-9)
Lib Dems 9 (+1)
Others 22 (-2)
TORY MAJORITY 38 (down from Majority 50 in my other prediction)
Vote Shares
Conservatives 43% +6%
Labour 35% +5%
Lib Dems 8% n/c
UKIP 3% -9%
TORY GAINS FROM LABOUR (14)
Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Wolverhampton South West, North East Derbyshire, Middlesbrough South, Walsall North, Wrexham, Wakefield, (Copeland), Stoke South, Darlington, Scunthorpe, Dudley North
TORY GAINS FROM SNP (5)
Berwickshire, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries & Galloway, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine, Aberdeen South
TORY GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (2)
Southport, North Norfolk, (Richmond Park)
TORY GAIN FROM UKIP (1)
Clacton
LABOUR GAINS FROM TORIES (6)
Bury North, Brighton Kemptown, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Croydon Central, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
LABOUR GAINS FROM SNP (3)
Edinburgh North & Leith, East Lothian, Glasgow Central
LABOUR GAINS FROM LIB DEMS (1)
Leeds North West
LABOUR GAINS FROM GREENS (1)
Brighton Pavilion
LIB DEM GAINS FROM TORIES (3)
Twickenham, Kingston & Surbiton, Bath
LIB DEM GAINS FROM SNP (1)
Edinburgh West
How they got themselves sidetracked by social care god only knows...