Along the lines of recent comments, how many gold plated polling companies are there? Or are they only gold plated when their recent poll results confirm individual PBer's beliefs, while all the others are just outliers?
We prefer to use the KLAXON rating now. None of this gold standard malarkey.
The KLAXON rating? Does it represent how large the majority will be? Something like:-
K - Keep Calm (0-30) L - Like it (30-60) A - Awesome (60-90) X - X-rated (90-120) O - Orgasmic (120-150) N - Nuked 'em (150+)
Just watched the Corbyn rally in Birmingham (Online, not in person}. Looked like nothing more or less than pictures of Gladstone's Midlothian campaign. Old-style political rally, with bands, speeches, etc. Clearly designed for local Tv, and a spread in the local rag. Can't see why it attracts scorn. Surely people taking an interest is a good thing?
Wonder if that is more useful than ten thousand canvassers pounding the pavements.
Rob - you need to correct Opinium to 6 June, not 6 April!
LOL. Have I been in the US too long? Hmmmm,
You live in America?
PB Tories are everywhere... like a plague of locusts.
Collectively, we must be in at least half a dozen different time zones.
Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.
I thought we were trying to explain why Labour's feedback from the doorstep was worse than the polls?
I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. One of the major issues I have had with some of the Labour canvassers on here suggesting that people are switching back to Labour from UKIP is that I just do not see how that mindset works in reality. If you left Labour for UKIP, it is because you felt Labour was soft on immigration / Brexit etc ie. all cultural issues. I don't see for the life of me how JC, Diane Abbott et al entices those people back.
Feels like a prediction from 4 weeks ago - if the surge doesn't materialise (or is far less than the last 2 weeks suggest), then it could be spot on. I am unsure about the PC gains though - I don;t know Wales, and the Tory dreams there are not as exuberant as they were at one point, but I had thought PC were not doing fantastically either.
I really struggle to see LDs in double figures - I'm only predicting 8-9 on the basis of multiple gains in Scotland- and I know some say places like Norfolk North are not goners, but so many models seem to assume it is beyond hope.
I'd be wary of betting against Norman Lamb. He's liked locally and the LibDems won most of the seats in the locals in may
Feels like a prediction from 4 weeks ago - if the surge doesn't materialise (or is far less than the last 2 weeks suggest), then it could be spot on. I am unsure about the PC gains though - I don;t know Wales, and the Tory dreams there are not as exuberant as they were at one point, but I had thought PC were not doing fantastically either.
I really struggle to see LDs in double figures - I'm only predicting 8-9 on the basis of multiple gains in Scotland- and I know some say places like Norfolk North are not goners, but so many models seem to assume it is beyond hope.
I'd be wary of betting against Norman Lamb. He's liked locally and the LibDems won most of the seats in the locals in may
Hmm I heard the same regarding Adrian Sanders in Torbay in 2015. At the end of the day if the numbers stack up, he'll drop.
The reason Normal Lamb is considered to be in trouble is the 16% ukip vote but in the locals the libs won local seats from the tories. I do think the UKIP vote will collapse but it's a question as to whether all of it goes tory.
Along the lines of recent comments, how many gold plated polling companies are there? Or are they only gold plated when their recent poll results confirm individual PBer's beliefs, while all the others are just outliers?
Does it matter that the lib Dems are going to win 0 to 12 seats, no as a lib dem it's about the community you live in and what you believe is right for that community. Yes it makes it all the more difficult for the future but we won't be wiped off the map. Maybe we are a party of local government and that is our niche but no party has the right to assume a particular area is theirs without challenge. I really don't understand the vitriol that the two "main" party's have to someone challenging ther perceived birth right. If nothing else my successors will continue to ensure, in some areas the other parties will have to earn you're vote
Well, I've always admired the spirit of the LDs. They survived destruction once, are trying to survive a double whammy within two years to survive destruction again. I can admire that.
The opposition @nich is puzzled by comes from MPs enjoying jobs for life in their safe strongholds (and those hoping one day to replace them, etc.). The two big parties know that the Tories are never going to win a Labour safe seat, and vice versa, so the cosy arrangement suits them both. Whereas, in theory if not very often in practice, the right circumstances can deliver a seat of either type to the LibDems. And, pre-coalition at least, once taken the big parties often find them difficult to get back.
Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.
I said the same thing further down, my parents do the same. Not worth the hassle, particularly if you have some spotty faced yoof from Momentum threatening to post on social media about the nasty, selfish people at 29 Mandela Drive who are voting Tory.
I've started being nasty on Facebook. Telling lefties to do one, fuck themselves, etc. Especially if they accuse anyone of Islamophobia.
I don't care any more. Enough IS enough.
I went into battle today too. Took me all of two hours to get my first: "I don't give a toss about you Tories.." from a socialist "friend".
Re Bury South (where I live), I have had a hunch that the Tories could do better here (eg if the Jewish Labour vote collapses) than in next door Bury North where I fear David Nuttall is going to be out on his arse sadly. A couple of Labour wards went Tory in the locals in 2016 and in a more recent by election in next door ward Salford Kersal (in Blackley & Broughton constituency) the Tories took that heavily Jewish area from Labour - the Jewish "enclave" in north Manchester straddles the two constituencies.
Just clearing out my spam emails I see a number of emails from the Bury South Labour party cajoling me to come out and help them get out the Labour vote and particularly on Thursday, imploring me to take the day off work etc. I get these because I was one of the £3 Tories who signed up to put Corbyn in (and boy I wish I hadn't...!) and it may be all Labour members across the UK are getting an identikit email, but I thought it was an interesting observation to share.
I do though expect both Bury seats to be red come Friday morning, alas. And I think you're out on Bolton NE, fully expect Labour to hold that not least given the Corbyn surge.
Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.
I said the same thing further down, my parents do the same. Not worth the hassle, particularly if you have some spotty faced yoof from Momentum threatening to post on social media about the nasty, selfish people at 29 Mandela Drive who are voting Tory.
I've started being nasty on Facebook. Telling lefties to do one, fuck themselves, etc. Especially if they accuse anyone of Islamophobia.
I don't care any more. Enough IS enough.
Be careful -- remember some of them might be your most faithful readers.
"The two qualities Hillary had in her favour were 1) not being her opponent, and 2) a reputation for stolid competence, though neither was as powerful a factor as she imagined. Fatally underestimating the appeal of a maverick rival promising change, Hillary hid herself away as far as possible in the assumption that she could coast to the line."
It's a lazy comparison, IMHO:
1) Hillary believed she had a firewall - a cluster of states that would hand her the Presidency no matter what happened. I think May has been cack-handed, but not actively neglecting of a key demographic that was sensitive to swinging away from her. Yes, there was the dementia tax, but nobody believes that it has or will cause the older demographic to decamp en masse to the Corbynistas.
2) Hillary as a person is very different to May as a person. Her narrative was more Brownian - it's my turn, I've been waiting in the wings since 1992 and I deserve my time to shine.
3) The Clintons as a political brand are about as far away from Theresa May as you can get in politics - the masters of the Democratic establishment, the ones who had been pulling the levers and getting the high-ups on side for decades. May, by comparison, has much less of a power base in the party.
4) Leading on from 3), the faint (and sometimes not-so-faint) whiff of scandal that followed the Clintons around is very different from dull and dutiful Mrs May.
5) Clinton appealed mostly to urban, metropolitan and worldly (for want of a better term) voters. May appeals more to Shire Tories and WWC Brexiteers.
6) Trump is not Corbyn. Corbyn is more of a Bernie Sanders figure (though I feel that is doing a tremendous disservice to Bernie Sanders).
@holyroodmandy: Tory spinners right now doing a cut and paste BT job with Kezia and Nicola on the blower. 'Hello, is it me you're looking for?' #scotdebates
Fiona McTaggart is a popular local Labour MP, but she's standing down. Only went Labour in 1997, hence the feeling it's up for grabs. Reminds me a bit of OxWAB - Evan Harris lost it in 2010 due to boundary changes.
Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.
I thought we were trying to explain why Labour's feedback from the doorstep was worse than the polls?
Another one to keep in mind, was just on the phone to my mum and sge said a couple of Labour canvassers and their candidate came knocking, she said that the whole household is going to vote Labour which is four people registered at the address (including me!). She said that so the woman would go away. I think this may be happening to a lot of Labour canvassers all over the country, where polite Tories just want to get rid of these Labour arseholes by telling them what they want to hear.
I said the same thing further down, my parents do the same. Not worth the hassle, particularly if you have some spotty faced yoof from Momentum threatening to post on social media about the nasty, selfish people at 29 Mandela Drive who are voting Tory.
I've started being nasty on Facebook. Telling lefties to do one, fuck themselves, etc. Especially if they accuse anyone of Islamophobia.
I don't care any more. Enough IS enough.
Be careful -- remember some of them might be your most faithful readers.
Does it matter that the lib Dems are going to win 0 to 12 seats, no as a lib dem it's about the community you live in and what you believe is right for that community. Yes it makes it all the more difficult for the future but we won't be wiped off the map. Maybe we are a party of local government and that is our niche but no party has the right to assume a particular area is theirs without challenge. I really don't understand the vitriol that the two "main" party's have to someone challenging ther perceived birth right. If nothing else my successors will continue to ensure, in some areas the other parties will have to earn you're vote
Well, I've always admired the spirit of the LDs. They survived destruction once, are trying to survive a double whammy within two years to survive destruction again. I can admire that.
The opposition @nich is puzzled by comes from MPs enjoying jobs for life in their safe strongholds (and those hoping one day to replace them, etc.). The two big parties know that the Tories are never going to win a Labour safe seat, and vice versa, so the cosy arrangement suits them both. Whereas, in theory if not very often in practice, the right circumstances can deliver a seat of either type to the LibDems. And, pre-coalition at least, once taken the big parties often find them difficult to get back.
Have to totally agree with that, one night in the pub I asked the Tory leader what he thought of our program he said it eas brilliant, just what people anted. I then asked him why we're they then blocking us at every turn " well if we let you do that well be out of our birthright for twenty years" They did frustrate us, wiped us out and then implemented all our policies.
Evening all, been watching the Scottish Leaders Debate. Fiery, polite and no-one has made a gaff thus far.
Re Scotland, I will be disappointed if Scons don't take more than 5 seats from SNP. Would not be surprised to see SCons in double figures and SNP down into low to mid 40s. Other than possibly East Lothian which could go 3 ways I really cant see SLAB picking up anything and will be surprised of LibDems pick up more than Edinburgh West. People dismiss the Tory chances there and yes while LibDems might be favourites to take it, remember until 1997 it was a Tory seat with Lord James Douglas-Hamilton so not impossible if unlikely. Edinburgh N and Leith could spring a surprise. Remember Ruth Davidson is MSP for Edinburgh Central so a "Ruth effect" may help the Tories over the line in both the North-east and South-west of Edinburgh. Apart from anything I would love to see my old mate Iain finally get elected.
I just am not seeing anything or hearing anything which suggests the LibDems are going to recapture my home seat C,S & ER. The 2 largest communities in the constituency, Wick and Thurso both now have a Tory Councillor and the Tory candidate is the Thurso one. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but I remember seeing a chart which showed it was the Tories who were second behind the SNP in 1st Preference votes last month in the Council elections, not the LibDems.
For me the perfect Portillo moment will be to see either Angus Robertson (whom I like) or Alex Salmond being ditched.
I've just received my first bit of election literature which mentions a 'labour government'. all of the leaflets I've had are labour (given I'm in derby south it's not too much of a surprise).
still no mention of Jeremy Corbyn in any of them (let alone a picture of him)
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock) Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham Northfield Bishop Auckland Blackpool S Bolton NE Bridgend Bristol E Bury S Chester Clywd S Copeland (hold on to by-election gain) Coventry NW Coventry S Darlington Delyn Derbyshire NE Dewsbury Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron) Dudley N Grimsby Halifax Hartlepool Hyndburn Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today) Mansfield Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!) Oldham E & Saddleworth Penistone & Stocksbridge Rother Valley Scunthorpe Southampton Test Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss) Wakefield Walsall N Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington (regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh SW Moray Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross Edinburgh W Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
Mostly agree, although I think the Tories will hold Gower.
I think Labour were sleeping there last time, believing it to be safe, with no such complacency this time, plus they'll have been able to bring a lot of man power in from all around - let's see.
I think the vote shares will be similar to the ICM polls - something like (UK wide) Tory 44/45, Labour 34, Lib Dem 9/10, UKIP 4, SNP 4, PC 1, NI 3.
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
It hardly sounds like the kind of thing that slips out by accident, and I don't think she's that kind of person. So, what does she think the upside is?
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock) Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham Northfield Bishop Auckland Blackpool S Bolton NE Bridgend Bristol E Bury S Chester Clywd S Copeland (hold on to by-election gain) Coventry NW Coventry S Darlington Delyn Derbyshire NE Dewsbury Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron) Dudley N Grimsby Halifax Hartlepool Hyndburn Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today) Mansfield Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!) Oldham E & Saddleworth Penistone & Stocksbridge Rother Valley Scunthorpe Southampton Test Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss) Wakefield Walsall N Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington (regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh SW Moray Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross Edinburgh W Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
If you've got Alyn & Deeside, Clywd South and Delyn going blue, then there is no way Wrexham wouldn't also fall. It's a straight Lab/Con fight with Plaid and the Libs nowhere and UKIP not standing this time; the Con candidate has been working hard on the seat for years and is well liked locally. Of the 4 NE Wales seats it will fall first.
I've got eff all idea what's going to happen on Thursday. I've managed to get enough brownie points saved up so I can stay up all Thursday night to see the results come in. I'm going to eat lots of popcorn, and hope I can type many LOLs as the results come in.
The best result for me? Probably a Conservative landslide. But I don't feel particularly invested in any particular result.
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock) Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham Northfield Bishop Auckland Blackpool S Bolton NE Bridgend Bristol E Bury S Chester Clywd S Copeland (hold on to by-election gain) Coventry NW Coventry S Darlington Delyn Derbyshire NE Dewsbury Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron) Dudley N Grimsby Halifax Hartlepool Hyndburn Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today) Mansfield Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!) Oldham E & Saddleworth Penistone & Stocksbridge Rother Valley Scunthorpe Southampton Test Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss) Wakefield Walsall N Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington (regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh SW Moray Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross Edinburgh W Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
If you've got Alyn & Deeside, Clywd South and Delyn going blue, then there is no way Wrexham wouldn't also fall. It's a straight Lab/Con fight with Plaid and the Libs nowhere and UKIP not standing this time; the Con candidate has been working hard on the seat for years and is well liked locally. Of the 4 NE Wales seats it will fall first.
Agree, Wrexham should be the easiest of those four seats for the Tories.
It's hilarious to read some of the anecdotes on here and see them put forward as being a bellwether for the election. They normally go as follows Madge from the chippie has voted Labour all her life but now says she loves May. This then equates to a huge majority!
I'll have you know Madge is a dear friend of mine, and her views not to be mocked, sir/madam!
Everyone I meet says they love Mrs May and despise Jeremy Corbyn. If we in the hedgefund office think that then it must be true, after all we are the masters of the universe.
Meanwhile the cleaners exchange winks, and walk away...
Re Bury South (where I live), I have had a hunch that the Tories could do better here (eg if the Jewish Labour vote collapses) than in next door Bury North where I fear David Nuttall is going to be out on his arse sadly. A couple of Labour wards went Tory in the locals in 2016 and in a more recent by election in next door ward Salford Kersal (in Blackley & Broughton constituency) the Tories took that heavily Jewish area from Labour - the Jewish "enclave" in north Manchester straddles the two constituencies.
Just clearing out my spam emails I see a number of emails from the Bury South Labour party cajoling me to come out and help them get out the Labour vote and particularly on Thursday, imploring me to take the day off work etc. I get these because I was one of the £3 Tories who signed up to put Corbyn in (and boy I wish I hadn't...!) and it may be all Labour members across the UK are getting an identikit email, but I thought it was an interesting observation to share.
I do though expect both Bury seats to be red come Friday morning, alas. And I think you're out on Bolton NE, fully expect Labour to hold that not least given the Corbyn surge.
That article in the Manchester Evening News said Bury S was on a knifeedge, and the other 4 Manchester seats Labour were worried about were Oldham E & Saddleworth, Boton NE, Heywood and Middleton.
The Jewish vote swings Bury S into Tory gain for me, Bolton NE had a Tory tradition back in the days of Peter Thurnham IIRC. Heywood & Middleton I still have in the Labour column, UKIP candidate standing takes away crucial votes from the Tories. I'd be surprised if David Nuttall is in trouble in Bury N with Bury S on a knifeedge as reported as S is a nigh on 5k Labour majority with N already in Tory hands.
Evening all, been watching the Scottish Leaders Debate. Fiery, polite and no-one has made a gaff thus far.
Re Scotland, I will be disappointed if Scons don't take more than 5 seats from SNP. Would not be surprised to see SCons in double figures and SNP down into low to mid 40s. Other than possibly East Lothian which could go 3 ways I really cant see SLAB picking up anything and will be surprised of LibDems pick up more than Edinburgh West. People dismiss the Tory chances there and yes while LibDems might be favourites to take it, remember until 1997 it was a Tory seat with Lord James Douglas-Hamilton so not impossible if unlikely. Edinburgh N and Leith could spring a surprise. Remember Ruth Davidson is MSP for Edinburgh Central so a "Ruth effect" may help the Tories over the line in both the North-east and South-west of Edinburgh. Apart from anything I would love to see my old mate Iain finally get elected.
I just am not seeing anything or hearing anything which suggests the LibDems are going to recapture my home seat C,S & ER. The 2 largest communities in the constituency, Wick and Thurso both now have a Tory Councillor and the Tory candidate is the Thurso one. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but I remember seeing a chart which showed it was the Tories who were second behind the SNP in 1st Preference votes last month in the Council elections, not the LibDems.
For me the perfect Portillo moment will be to see either Angus Robertson (whom I like) or Alex Salmond being ditched.
Re the locals, you are correct. However, the LDs didn't stand in every ward, so it's tough to make comparisons.
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
Any experienced and clued up campaign team will get a very good idea of the result at the verification stage, anything between one and three hours before the count finishes. It is of course a serious offence to communicate this to anyone outside the count, although judging by the number of journalists clearly getting tip offs, some people aren't quite as worried by this as they used to be. When mobile phones became widespread, maintaining complete secrecy at a count became very difficult.
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock) Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham Northfield Bishop Auckland Blackpool S Bolton NE Bridgend Bristol E Bury S Chester Clywd S Copeland (hold on to by-election gain) Coventry NW Coventry S Darlington Delyn Derbyshire NE Dewsbury Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron) Dudley N Grimsby Halifax Hartlepool Hyndburn Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today) Mansfield Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!) Oldham E & Saddleworth Penistone & Stocksbridge Rother Valley Scunthorpe Southampton Test Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss) Wakefield Walsall N Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington (regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh SW Moray Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross Edinburgh W Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
If you've got Alyn & Deeside, Clywd South and Delyn going blue, then there is no way Wrexham wouldn't also fall. It's a straight Lab/Con fight with Plaid and the Libs nowhere and UKIP not standing this time; the Con candidate has been working hard on the seat for years and is well liked locally. Of the 4 NE Wales seats it will fall first.
Agree, Wrexham should be the easiest of those four seats for the Tories.
We have won Alyn & Deeside, Clywd South and Delyn 'fairly' recently (all three in 1983?)
I don't think we have won Wrexham since 1832 so that this historical barrier may be hard to overcome!
It hardly sounds like the kind of thing that slips out by accident, and I don't think she's that kind of person. So, what does she think the upside is?
I can't think of one, no even convoluted 12 dimensional chess type things.
The only vague possibility is that this will shift Unionist Labour votes to Con and, barring constituencies already lost to Con like AWK and BRS Sturgeon thinks the SNP can face down Tory surges elsewhere? So split vote in North &Leith and Easy Lothian? Thats bloody thin I must admit.
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
It's going to be interesting to compare the first few seats to YouGov's model....
I've got eff all idea what's going to happen on Thursday. I've managed to get enough brownie points saved up so I can stay up all Thursday night to see the results come in. I'm going to eat lots of popcorn, and hope I can type many LOLs as the results come in.
The best result for me? Probably a Conservative landslide. But I don't feel particularly invested in any particular result.
I believed the opinion polls last time so this time I'm treating them all with a significant amount of trepidation. We know that UKIP has collapsed and most of the lost vote is going to CON but anything else is a mystery.
I've got a poker game until 11/12 so I'll get home in time for the real fun to start. with Pizza and Whisky (english of course) to keep me going
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
Given the LD domination of Edinburgh West in both Holyrood and last month's locals (combined with the problems of the former MP), I think it's by far the most likely LD gain in the whole country.
If you weren't expecting Kezia Dugdale to resign on Friday morning, its pretty much nailed on now. TBH, it will probably be a blessed relief for her, she has possibly the worst job in politics at the moment.
It's hilarious to read some of the anecdotes on here and see them put forward as being a bellwether for the election. They normally go as follows Madge from the chippie has voted Labour all her life but now says she loves May. This then equates to a huge majority!
I'll have you know Madge is a dear friend of mine, and her views not to be mocked, sir/madam!
Everyone I meet says they love Mrs May and despise Jeremy Corbyn. If we in the hedgefund office think that then it must be true, after all we are the masters of the universe.
Meanwhile the cleaners exchange winks, and walk away...
Good thing the cleaners are all Eastern European and can't vote!
Anecdote. I had a v plez lunch with leftwing photographer friend, one of the best known snappers in the country, who was despatched by Stern magazine to take the temperature of Britain post-Brexit, pre-election - he spent five days travelling the A1, with a journo, doing vox pops on politics, and taking pix.
He met lots of Labour people, who just said, Let's get on with Brexit, Theresa May will have to do, coz Corbyn's just a nutter
Caveat: this was before Dementia Tax Clustershambles, but he reckoned most of these people won't have changed their minds.
I also got the distinct feeling (tho he didn't admit it) that he might be about to vote Tory for the first time in his life. He despises that rich Islington socialist shit; he's from a very working class background.
On this slender basis, I am today predicting a Tory maj of about 60.
I have noticed London-based middle-class Remainer ultra-soft Conservatives either stop voting Conservative for this election, or flirting with Corbyn, on Facebook. Not that it necessarily means very much.
Meanwhile, in the key marginal I visited, I was surprised at the warmth felt by many for Theresa May, notwithstanding her slip-ups.
Wonder how many people will endorse Corbyn on Facebook and Twitter and then vote Tory in the privacy of the polling booth.
Oh, quite.
There might be an element of the reverse. Corbyn is the button marked 'do not push' that people might feel a rush of blood to push once confronted with a ballot paper.
Is this the people "totally bottling when they get inside the polling booth and are faced with the 'Leave' box", phenomenon?
Turns out it was just Pulpstar who bottled it ;-)
I changed my mind a few days before the vote actually - just before the Jo Cox incident. Wasn't an "in the ballot box" thing at all. This election I'm voting tactically, and have done a vote swap.
Teasing you. You know I'm just unhappy you're no longer with us Blues, anymore.
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
Any experienced and clued up campaign team will get a very good idea of the result at the verification stage, anything between one and three hours before the count finishes. It is of course a serious offence to communicate this to anyone outside the count, although judging by the number of journalists clearly getting tip offs, some people aren't quite as worried by this as they used to be. When mobile phones became widespread, maintaining complete secrecy at a count became very difficult.
For once, Houghton and Sunderland South might be interesting in itself.
I think the Hemsworth and Bolsover talk is a ruse by the Tories to try to scare Labour into thinking they're in trouble in both those, in the hope of drawing away Labour resources from elsewhere eg Don Valley, Pensitone & Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, Wakefield and Derbyshire NE which are the ones they think they can win.
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
Any experienced and clued up campaign team will get a very good idea of the result at the verification stage, anything between one and three hours before the count finishes. It is of course a serious offence to communicate this to anyone outside the count, although judging by the number of journalists clearly getting tip offs, some people aren't quite as worried by this as they used to be. When mobile phones became widespread, maintaining complete secrecy at a count became very difficult.
For once, Houghton and Sunderland South might be interesting in itself.
"The two qualities Hillary had in her favour were 1) not being her opponent, and 2) a reputation for stolid competence, though neither was as powerful a factor as she imagined. Fatally underestimating the appeal of a maverick rival promising change, Hillary hid herself away as far as possible in the assumption that she could coast to the line."
It's a lazy comparison, IMHO:
1) Hillary believed she had a firewall - a cluster of states that would hand her the Presidency no matter what happened. I think May has been cack-handed, but not actively neglecting of a key demographic that was sensitive to swinging away from her. Yes, there was the dementia tax, but nobody believes that it has or will cause the older demographic to decamp en masse to the Corbynistas.
2) Hillary as a person is very different to May as a person. Her narrative was more Brownian - it's my turn, I've been waiting in the wings since 1992 and I deserve my time to shine.
3) The Clintons as a political brand are about as far away from Theresa May as you can get in politics - the masters of the Democratic establishment, the ones who had been pulling the levers and getting the high-ups on side for decades. May, by comparison, has much less of a power base in the party.
4) Leading on from 3), the faint (and sometimes not-so-faint) whiff of scandal that followed the Clintons around is very different from dull and dutiful Mrs May.
5) Clinton appealed mostly to urban, metropolitan and worldly (for want of a better term) voters. May appeals more to Shire Tories and WWC Brexiteers.
6) Trump is not Corbyn. Corbyn is more of a Bernie Sanders figure (though I feel that is doing a tremendous disservice to Bernie Sanders).
Edit: 7) May's not called voters deplorable yet.
While overall I agree with your analysis there, they are different, but in one way they are similar is they have both gone out of there way to attack Libertarians, Hillary in her Alt Right Speech, and May in her party conference speech last year.
It is difficult to see why they felt the need to attack us, Considering her opponent a lot of Libertarians were planing to support Hilary before her speech, it would have been a small but non the less use full gain of voters direct from the GOP, for May her attack is limiting the support that some libertarians might otherwise be given to the party facing JC.
In both cases I can not see the political gain from the attacks so I am left to assume both Lady's simply do not like us.
LDs 2-15 - what a knife edge they are on. Recovery or death.
One for ukip? I wonder where.
And up to six UKIP as the max of range? I think his model is overestimating them somewhat!
And I don't think the Tories will win Ilford North 54/39!
Some of his forecasts make YouGov look sensible. I guess both of them demonstrate how difficult it is to make seat predictions based on data only, and not 'feel' and some local knowledge?
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
Tory gain from Labour (42)
Alyn & Deeside Barrow & Furness (sorry Mr Woodcock) Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham Northfield Bishop Auckland Blackpool S Bolton NE Bridgend Bristol E Bury S Chester Clywd S Copeland (hold on to by-election gain) Coventry NW Coventry S Darlington Delyn Derbyshire NE Dewsbury Don Valley (would be personally pleased for Tissue Price / Aaron) Dudley N Grimsby Halifax Hartlepool Hyndburn Lancaster & Fleetwood (not by that much after TM's visit today) Mansfield Middlesbrough E & Cleveland E Newcastle - u - Lyme (Labour since 1919!) Oldham E & Saddleworth Penistone & Stocksbridge Rother Valley Scunthorpe Southampton Test Stoke S (symbolic for me of Labour's WWC loss) Wakefield Walsall N Walsall S (wish the Vaz departing was the Leicester one!)
Tory gain from LD (1)
Carshalton & Wallington (regain Richmond Park by-election loss)
Tory gain from UKIP (1)
Clacton
Tory gain from SNP (6)
Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Dumfries & Galloway Edinburgh SW Moray Perth & N Perthshire
LD gain from SNP (3)
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross Edinburgh W Fife NE
LD gain from Tory (2)
Kingston & Surbiton Twickenham
PC gain from Labour (1)
Ynys Mon
PC gain from LD (1)
Ceredigeon (students not there at the university unlike 2015)
Labour gain from SNP (1)
East Lothian (narrow miss in Edinburgh N)
Labour gain from LD (1)
Leeds NW
Labour gain from Tory (2)
Croydon Central Gower
Notable Labour holds - Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield N, Ealing C & Acton (sceptical of that Twitter postal vote report!), Gedling, Hove, Ilford N (long term Labour drift in those 3), Heywood & Middleton (UKIP take enough away from the Tories there)
If you've got Alyn & Deeside, Clywd South and Delyn going blue, then there is no way Wrexham wouldn't also fall. It's a straight Lab/Con fight with Plaid and the Libs nowhere and UKIP not standing this time; the Con candidate has been working hard on the seat for years and is well liked locally. Of the 4 NE Wales seats it will fall first.
Sorry,realised I missed the following Tory gains from Labour off that list:
Wolverhampton SW, Workington, Wrexham and Worsley & Eccles S (the other Manchester Evening News article that mentioned Labour in trouble in the Greater Manchester area) - they were in a different column in my notes that I missed - my apologies.
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
Any experienced and clued up campaign team will get a very good idea of the result at the verification stage, anything between one and three hours before the count finishes. It is of course a serious offence to communicate this to anyone outside the count, although judging by the number of journalists clearly getting tip offs, some people aren't quite as worried by this as they used to be. When mobile phones became widespread, maintaining complete secrecy at a count became very difficult.
For once, Houghton and Sunderland South might be interesting in itself.
Blimey, by interesting I assume you mean the Tories might get within say 20 pts ? Tories starting out on 18 pts there. Tory + UKIP = 40, Lab start out at 55 !
1) If you take it at face value (Labour might support an IndyRef too!) it pushes potential SLAB->SNP switchers back into the SLAB column
2) It coalesces the Unionist vote behind the Tories, who I think Sturgeon has more to fear in this campaign
3) It makes her look seriously rattled.
Sturgeon is no fool, we all know that, and it is a hell of a claim to make (even if it is true), there has to be an angle beyond those three options. Can anyone think of it?
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
Given the LD domination of Edinburgh West in both Holyrood and last month's locals (combined with the problems of the former MP), I think it's by far the most likely LD gain in the whole country.
It's hilarious to read some of the anecdotes on here and see them put forward as being a bellwether for the election. They normally go as follows Madge from the chippie has voted Labour all her life but now says she loves May. This then equates to a huge majority!
I'll have you know Madge is a dear friend of mine, and her views not to be mocked, sir/madam!
Everyone I meet says they love Mrs May and despise Jeremy Corbyn. If we in the hedgefund office think that then it must be true, after all we are the masters of the universe.
Meanwhile the cleaners exchange winks, and walk away...
Good thing the cleaners are all Eastern European and can't vote!
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
Any experienced and clued up campaign team will get a very good idea of the result at the verification stage, anything between one and three hours before the count finishes. It is of course a serious offence to communicate this to anyone outside the count, although judging by the number of journalists clearly getting tip offs, some people aren't quite as worried by this as they used to be. When mobile phones became widespread, maintaining complete secrecy at a count became very difficult.
For once, Houghton and Sunderland South might be interesting in itself.
Just imagine if it is a Tory gain.....
I wasn't going that far, but there's 14k votes between the Tories and Labour. If that grows to 16k+ then May might be looking forward to a very bad night. Conversely, if it's 11k or less then she might be looking at a very good one.
My mum and dad (mum voting Conservative, dad is voting UKIP) think that Corbyn is a nice guy, means well....but don't want him as PM. Neither are that hot on May, (my dad especially doesn't like her) but feel she's a better option for PM. My dad wants her to be re-elected because of Brexit. He won't vote Conservative because that is going too far for him.
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
Given the LD domination of Edinburgh West in both Holyrood and last month's locals (combined with the problems of the former MP), I think it's by far the most likely LD gain in the whole country.
You think? I'm not sure you've said that before.
People keep suggesting it isn't a cast iron LD gain so they need to be telt.
Does anyone have any news on Thanet South. I'd love to see Craig Mackinlay lose but I think he'll hold on - avoiding Corbyn and Labour on immigration for the 2015 Farage voters trumps election expenses there I think.
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
Any experienced and clued up campaign team will get a very good idea of the result at the verification stage, anything between one and three hours before the count finishes. It is of course a serious offence to communicate this to anyone outside the count, although judging by the number of journalists clearly getting tip offs, some people aren't quite as worried by this as they used to be. When mobile phones became widespread, maintaining complete secrecy at a count became very difficult.
For once, Houghton and Sunderland South might be interesting in itself.
Just imagine if it is a Tory gain.....
I wasn't going that far, but there's 14k votes between the Tories and Labour. If that grows 16k+ then May might be looking forward to a very bad night. Conversely, if it's 11k or less then she might be looking at a very good one.
Quite a substantial UKIP vote there, would be very bad if the Tories were going backwards. Yeah, a gain would be out of this world good for the Tories. But I just want to imagine what the reaction on here would be like...
1) If you take it at face value (Labour might support an IndyRef too!) it pushes potential SLAB->SNP switchers back into the SLAB column
2) It coalesces the Unionist vote behind the Tories, who I think Sturgeon has more to fear in this campaign
3) It makes her look seriously rattled.
Sturgeon is no fool, we all know that, and it is a hell of a claim to make (even if it is true), there has to be an angle beyond those three options. Can anyone think of it?
She has a secret recording of the conversation and Ruth Davidson is on it concurring with Dugdale?
My mum and dad (mum voting Conservative, dad is voting UKIP) think that Corbyn is a nice guy, means well....but don't want him as PM. Neither are that hot on May, (my dad especially doesn't like her) but feel she's a better option for PM. My dad wants her to be re-elected because of Brexit. He won't vote Conservative because that is going too far for him.
Hmmm. Just seems so...normal for a Con vs Corbyn election, as if the last 4 weeks mean nothing. Which I suppose is possible, but still.
I've been of the opinion that, normally, election campaigns always end up changing nothing. It's normally the media and political narrative which is more often what changes. Opinion polling outside of a general election is an OK to good indicator of where people are but when the campaign starts supporters become engaged more than the normal folk and can cause issues.
I'd be happy if once the official campaign started no poll could be published (it'd cause issues here though I realise)
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
Given the LD domination of Edinburgh West in both Holyrood and last month's locals (combined with the problems of the former MP), I think it's by far the most likely LD gain in the whole country.
Considering that the best odds you can get on CON gaining the either of the first 2 seats is 1/7 then you can guess I think that Edin West is pretty much nailed on as well. It's also the only seat that the party haven't asked me to help in locally unlike the next 2 LD targets on the list. At 2/5 it is probably a better bet than some other seats at the same odds.
I think the Hemsworth and Bolsover talk is a ruse by the Tories to try to scare Labour into thinking they're in trouble in both those, in the hope of drawing away Labour resources from elsewhere eg Don Valley, Pensitone & Stocksbridge, Rother Valley, Wakefield and Derbyshire NE which are the ones they think they can win.
As I posted below, Dan Hodges seems to think Bolsover is a genuine worry for Labour.
The really good news is all the shouting and campaigning will be over in 24 hours or so and then we can look forward to a non political thursday and then the 10.00pm exit poll
I'm looking forward to the whispers and rumours on here.
I have a good friend at a local count According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
Any experienced and clued up campaign team will get a very good idea of the result at the verification stage, anything between one and three hours before the count finishes. It is of course a serious offence to communicate this to anyone outside the count, although judging by the number of journalists clearly getting tip offs, some people aren't quite as worried by this as they used to be. When mobile phones became widespread, maintaining complete secrecy at a count became very difficult.
For once, Houghton and Sunderland South might be interesting in itself.
Just imagine if it is a Tory gain.....
I wasn't going that far, but there's 14k votes between the Tories and Labour. If that grows 16k+ then May might be looking forward to a very bad night. Conversely, if it's 11k or less then she might be looking at a very good one.
Quite a substantial UKIP vote there, would be very bad if the Tories were going backwards. Yeah, a gain would be out of this world good for the Tories. But I just want to imagine what the reaction on here would be like...
Comments
One other thing, Alastair. I do not share your opinions on a few things but may I just say that you do some top-quality articles and analysis.
The KLAXON rating? Does it represent how large the majority will be? Something like:-
K - Keep Calm (0-30)
L - Like it (30-60)
A - Awesome (60-90)
X - X-rated (90-120)
O - Orgasmic (120-150)
N - Nuked 'em (150+)
https://twitter.com/jamieross7/status/872186309233827841
This was much better by the Cons.
Some new policies to fight terror by May.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKLSgKr4A8U
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/senior-ukip-figure-peter-reeve-urges-people-in-north-norfolk-to-vote-liberal-democrat-1-5047185
Where is the marginal in Berkshire ?
Just clearing out my spam emails I see a number of emails from the Bury South Labour party cajoling me to come out and help them get out the Labour vote and particularly on Thursday, imploring me to take the day off work etc. I get these because I was one of the £3 Tories who signed up to put Corbyn in (and boy I wish I hadn't...!) and it may be all Labour members across the UK are getting an identikit email, but I thought it was an interesting observation to share.
I do though expect both Bury seats to be red come Friday morning, alas. And I think you're out on Bolton NE, fully expect Labour to hold that not least given the Corbyn surge.
1) Hillary believed she had a firewall - a cluster of states that would hand her the Presidency no matter what happened. I think May has been cack-handed, but not actively neglecting of a key demographic that was sensitive to swinging away from her. Yes, there was the dementia tax, but nobody believes that it has or will cause the older demographic to decamp en masse to the Corbynistas.
2) Hillary as a person is very different to May as a person. Her narrative was more Brownian - it's my turn, I've been waiting in the wings since 1992 and I deserve my time to shine.
3) The Clintons as a political brand are about as far away from Theresa May as you can get in politics - the masters of the Democratic establishment, the ones who had been pulling the levers and getting the high-ups on side for decades. May, by comparison, has much less of a power base in the party.
4) Leading on from 3), the faint (and sometimes not-so-faint) whiff of scandal that followed the Clintons around is very different from dull and dutiful Mrs May.
5) Clinton appealed mostly to urban, metropolitan and worldly (for want of a better term) voters. May appeals more to Shire Tories and WWC Brexiteers.
6) Trump is not Corbyn. Corbyn is more of a Bernie Sanders figure (though I feel that is doing a tremendous disservice to Bernie Sanders).
Edit: 7) May's not called voters deplorable yet.
he said it eas brilliant, just what people anted. I then asked him why we're they then blocking us at every turn " well if we let you do that well be out of our birthright for twenty years"
They did frustrate us, wiped us out and then implemented all our policies.
Re Scotland, I will be disappointed if Scons don't take more than 5 seats from SNP. Would not be surprised to see SCons in double figures and SNP down into low to mid 40s. Other than possibly East Lothian which could go 3 ways I really cant see SLAB picking up anything and will be surprised of LibDems pick up more than Edinburgh West. People dismiss the Tory chances there and yes while LibDems might be favourites to take it, remember until 1997 it was a Tory seat with Lord James Douglas-Hamilton so not impossible if unlikely. Edinburgh N and Leith could spring a surprise. Remember Ruth Davidson is MSP for Edinburgh Central so a "Ruth effect" may help the Tories over the line in both the North-east and South-west of Edinburgh. Apart from anything I would love to see my old mate Iain finally get elected.
I just am not seeing anything or hearing anything which suggests the LibDems are going to recapture my home seat C,S & ER. The 2 largest communities in the constituency, Wick and Thurso both now have a Tory Councillor and the Tory candidate is the Thurso one. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but I remember seeing a chart which showed it was the Tories who were second behind the SNP in 1st Preference votes last month in the Council elections, not the LibDems.
For me the perfect Portillo moment will be to see either Angus Robertson (whom I like) or Alex Salmond being ditched.
still no mention of Jeremy Corbyn in any of them (let alone a picture of him)
I think the vote shares will be similar to the ICM polls - something like (UK wide) Tory 44/45, Labour 34, Lib Dem 9/10, UKIP 4, SNP 4, PC 1, NI 3.
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/872188778856755204
According to YouGov it is "leaning" Labour and he has promised to keep me updated-i will of course feed his comments back to the PB hordes
PS he is an experienced campaigner so I have respect for his views and observations.
Con 375
Lab 198
SNP 46
LD 8
Con maj: 100 seats
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
The best result for me? Probably a Conservative landslide. But I don't feel particularly invested in any particular result.
Con 44.2%
Lab 31.9%
Meanwhile the cleaners exchange winks, and walk away...
The Jewish vote swings Bury S into Tory gain for me, Bolton NE had a Tory tradition back in the days of Peter Thurnham IIRC. Heywood & Middleton I still have in the Labour column, UKIP candidate standing takes away crucial votes from the Tories. I'd be surprised if David Nuttall is in trouble in Bury N with Bury S on a knifeedge as reported as S is a nigh on 5k Labour majority with N already in Tory hands.
Presumably somebody will be asked to produce phone records now...
Berwick RS - CON
West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON
Edinburgh West - LD
Dumfries and Galloway - CON
NE Fife - LD
Moray - CON
Perth and North Perthshire - CON
Aberdeen South - CON
East Dunbartonshire - LD
East Lothian -LAB
Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB)
Edinburgh SW - CON
Caithness and SER - LD
Edinburgh N and L - LAB
Ochil and SP - CON
Ross Skye and L - LD
Arygll and Bute - LD
Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB
Gordon - LD
Midlothian - LAB
Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
Oh, yes. Chapel Down.
Be warned.
I don't think we have won Wrexham since 1832 so that this historical barrier may be hard to overcome!
The only vague possibility is that this will shift Unionist Labour votes to Con and, barring constituencies already lost to Con like AWK and BRS Sturgeon thinks the SNP can face down Tory surges elsewhere? So split vote in North &Leith and Easy Lothian? Thats bloody thin I must admit.
I've got a poker game until 11/12 so I'll get home in time for the real fun to start. with Pizza and Whisky (english of course) to keep me going
1) If you take it at face value (Labour might support an IndyRef too!) it pushes potential SLAB->SNP switchers back into the SLAB column
2) It coalesces the Unionist vote behind the Tories, who I think Sturgeon has more to fear in this campaign
3) It makes her look seriously rattled.
Make me happy again.
It is difficult to see why they felt the need to attack us, Considering her opponent a lot of Libertarians were planing to support Hilary before her speech, it would have been a small but non the less use full gain of voters direct from the GOP, for May her attack is limiting the support that some libertarians might otherwise be given to the party facing JC.
In both cases I can not see the political gain from the attacks so I am left to assume both Lady's simply do not like us.
And up to six UKIP as the max of range? I think his model is overestimating them somewhat!
And I don't think the Tories will win Ilford North 54/39!
Some of his forecasts make YouGov look sensible. I guess both of them demonstrate how difficult it is to make seat predictions based on data only, and not 'feel' and some local knowledge?
(I might have overshared there...)
Wolverhampton SW, Workington, Wrexham and Worsley & Eccles S (the other Manchester Evening News article that mentioned Labour in trouble in the Greater Manchester area) - they were in a different column in my notes that I missed - my apologies.
I want a big Tory majority I can celebrate with gusto but also broad, sensible, cabinet based Government spanning the whole party.
Can I have that?
Labour insiders also think Bolsover is in play for the Tories. Say that Skinner has done relatively little work on the ground in the seat."
I'd be happy if once the official campaign started no poll could be published (it'd cause issues here though I realise)
@PolhomeEditor: Labour spokesman contd: "It is nothing but a final act of desperation from an SNP leader who knows the public has turned against her."