Tomorrows papers. Theresa May 'I will change human rights laws if they stop me from dealing with terrorists'
Popular move and over to Jeremy. 'Will you'
Popular in the target seats where it matters, not in London or Remainerstan.
Yep, she's just waiting for someone from Labour to say it's horrible that we should deport people and have them appeal from abroad at their own expense (as opposed to Abu Hamza who took a decade to be deported at the cost of a few million in legal aid).
Does anyone have any news on Thanet South. I'd love to see Craig Mackinlay lose but I think he'll hold on - avoiding Corbyn and Labour on immigration for the 2015 Farage voters trumps election expenses there I think.
I live here He will win Not a great candidate and has not won many friends but his opponents are even worse.
As people are doing predictions here is mine for the seats that the SNP will and could lose and to whom in order of likelihood:
Berwick RS - CON West Aberdeen and Kincardine - CON Edinburgh West - LD Dumfries and Galloway - CON NE Fife - LD Moray - CON Perth and North Perthshire - CON Aberdeen South - CON East Dunbartonshire - LD East Lothian -LAB Renfrewshire East - CON (more likely than LAB) Edinburgh SW - CON Caithness and SER - LD Edinburgh N and L - LAB Ochil and SP - CON Ross Skye and L - LD Arygll and Bute - LD Paisley and S. Renfrew - LAB Gordon - LD Midlothian - LAB Angus - CON
Overall I think that they will end up with 43 Seats which would mean them losing everything down to Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross. This is assuming that their vote share is around 40-42% and overall turnout in Scotland is down about 5%
I think you have forgotten about Stirling. Isn't that more likely to drop than Ochil?
Hmm I should of put Stirling on the list but I would say it is bit less likely than Ochil, probably just above Paisley and S Renfrew. The Tories did better in the Ochil seat in the 2016 Holyrood elections and this years council elections than they did in Stirling.
1) If you take it at face value (Labour might support an IndyRef too!) it pushes potential SLAB->SNP switchers back into the SLAB column
2) It coalesces the Unionist vote behind the Tories, who I think Sturgeon has more to fear in this campaign
3) It makes her look seriously rattled.
Sturgeon is no fool, we all know that, and it is a hell of a claim to make (even if it is true), there has to be an angle beyond those three options. Can anyone think of it?
Suppressing the Anti-Independence Labour vote in the Central Belt.
My seat by seat prediction FWIW, with reference to 2015 election:
If you've got Alyn & Deeside, Clywd South and Delyn going blue, then there is no way Wrexham wouldn't also fall. It's a straight Lab/Con fight with Plaid and the Libs nowhere and UKIP not standing this time; the Con candidate has been working hard on the seat for years and is well liked locally. Of the 4 NE Wales seats it will fall first.
Sorry,realised I missed the following Tory gains from Labour off that list:
Wolverhampton SW, Workington, Wrexham and Worsley & Eccles S (the other Manchester Evening News article that mentioned Labour in trouble in the Greater Manchester area) - they were in a different column in my notes that I missed - my apologies.
Worsley and Eccles South? Really? Iwent on the guided busway through W&ES the other day. It really does lookrather nice, in the sun. And I saw a socio-economic map of Greater Manchester which had a surprisingly dark red (symbolsing affluence) there. But really, I can't see it... I also struggle with Wrexham. But I think that's the name - I associate the seat with the very WC town and its coalfield - I know there's nice bits too.
Wrexham has been drifting away long term from Labour for a long time now with over 5k UKIP votes up for grabs.
Worsley and Eccles South was mentioned in the Manchester Evening News article earlier today that Labour are worried. It's a bit of stretch for the Tories, but there is a big UKIP vote there to exploit.
Worsley is quite afflluent. The Tory candidate there Cllr Iain Lindley was/is a PBer.
Just a thought re Edinburgh West. Some politicians are lucky and others are not. Edinburgh West on paper should be the 2nd easiest steal from the SNP on Thursday after the Borders seat. HOWEVER is Christine Jardine an unlucky candidate. In 2015 she fell heir to Sir Malcom Bruce's 6700 majority in Gordon and saw it become an almost 8,700 majority for Alex Salmond. She reminds me of Iain Sproat who abandoned Aberdeen South in 1983 to fight the more winnable Roxburgh and Berwickshire. He was thumped by Archie Kirkwood and Gerry Malone held Aberdeen South. Her departure makes Colin Clark the clear opponent for Alex Salmond. It would be somewhat ironic if Colin Clark ousts Alex Salmond and Christine Jardine fails to win back Edinburgh West.
photo of "unwell" Diane Abbot on her phone this morning when she was supposedly too unwell to appear on the radio show, now in tomorrow's papers. Not good for Team Corbyn
Does anyone have any news on Thanet South. I'd love to see Craig Mackinlay lose but I think he'll hold on - avoiding Corbyn and Labour on immigration for the 2015 Farage voters trumps election expenses there I think.
I live here He will win Not a great candidate and has not won many friends but his opponents are even worse.
Evening all, been watching the Scottish Leaders Debate. Fiery, polite and no-one has made a gaff thus far.
Re Scotland, I will be disappointed if Scons don't take more than 5 seats from SNP. Would not be surprised to see SCons in double figures and SNP down into low to mid 40s. Other than possibly East Lothian which could go 3 ways I really cant see SLAB picking up anything and will be surprised of LibDems pick up more than Edinburgh West. People dismiss the Tory chances there and yes while LibDems might be favourites to take it, remember until 1997 it was a Tory seat with Lord James Douglas-Hamilton so not impossible if unlikely. Edinburgh N and Leith could spring a surprise. Remember Ruth Davidson is MSP for Edinburgh Central so a "Ruth effect" may help the Tories over the line in both the North-east and South-west of Edinburgh. Apart from anything I would love to see my old mate Iain finally get elected.
I just am not seeing anything or hearing anything which suggests the LibDems are going to recapture my home seat C,S & ER. The 2 largest communities in the constituency, Wick and Thurso both now have a Tory Councillor and the Tory candidate is the Thurso one. Someone can correct me if I am wrong but I remember seeing a chart which showed it was the Tories who were second behind the SNP in 1st Preference votes last month in the Council elections, not the LibDems.
For me the perfect Portillo moment will be to see either Angus Robertson (whom I like) or Alex Salmond being ditched.
Edinburgh West became a LibDem stronghold, until taken in 2015 by Michelle Thomson for the SNP, who has been charged with fraudulent mortgage applications. That in the process, she bought up ex-council house properties at well below market value and resold them the same day, to either herself, her relatives, friends and family at much higher prices, which is what the mortgage was paid out on, then pocketing the difference, actually is not illegal, immoral maybe. But, signing the mortgage application and confirming that the property had not been sold within the previous 6 months, is. Not once, not twice, not even thrice, but unlucky 13 times. Her solicitor has already been struck off, and is also under investigation. Lots of people have been wondering when the cases will actually go to court, now that Thomson is no longer an SNP supporting MP. It is highly likely that Edinburgh West will go back to LibDems.
Along the lines of recent comments, how many gold plated polling companies are there? Or are they only gold plated when their recent poll results confirm individual PBer's beliefs, while all the others are just outliers?
We prefer to use the KLAXON rating now. None of this gold standard malarkey.
An upward movement of 4 seats overnight in IG's Tory Seats spread, currently 361 - 367. Both Sporting and Spreadex are essentially unchanged at 357 - 363.
Comments
He will win
Not a great candidate and has not won many friends but his opponents are even worse.
The Tory candidate there Cllr Iain Lindley was/is a PBer.
HOWEVER is Christine Jardine an unlucky candidate. In 2015 she fell heir to Sir Malcom Bruce's 6700 majority in Gordon and saw it become an almost 8,700 majority for Alex Salmond. She reminds me of Iain Sproat who abandoned Aberdeen South in 1983 to fight the more winnable Roxburgh and Berwickshire. He was thumped by Archie Kirkwood and Gerry Malone held Aberdeen South. Her departure makes Colin Clark the clear opponent for Alex Salmond. It would be somewhat ironic if Colin Clark ousts Alex Salmond and Christine Jardine fails to win back Edinburgh West.
Also, I decided I would try to avoid ever living in a labour seat again!
Both Sporting and Spreadex are essentially unchanged at 357 - 363.