politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling understatement of the Tories is MUCH less likely to ha
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling understatement of the Tories is MUCH less likely to happen when they’re clearly ahead
Nate Silver’s 538
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First ever first0
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Bring it on!0
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Second rate0
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4th like Whiz Kid Harry...0
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Interesting.0
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The pollsters have tried to fix their tendency to overstate Labour and undertstate the Tories by drastically reweighting. So if there is an unexpected youth surge, these weighting changes are likely to cause a large error in the other direction, overstating Tories and understating Labour.
What if there's never been a Tory landslide on the cards, and it's all been artefact of pollsters experimenting with differential turnout adjustments?
Good news for May I guess, then at least she won't have blown a nailed on Tory supermajority by being godawful at politics.0 -
At the end of the day, bit difficult to draw anything out of a pattern which fitted best 34 years ago.0
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FPT
Have we heard from Bunnco - our man on the spot - this election period?0 -
Pretty sure you can't have an odd numbered majority, correct?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/871998549621444608
Incidentally, my projection of 104 matches our favourite JacobiteW and Martin Robbins.
And if he decides on a real number for a majority, possible Goodwin too!!
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The most obvious thing is that if it looks like Labour are going to win their voters are less likely to bother to vote. The same doesn't apply to the Tories0
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I always highly doubted that Tories would get more than 45%, that is already sky high. The question is do labour really get 38-40 or icm level of 34%.0
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In 1964 Tory Chancellor Reginald Maulding left a note to his successor James Callaghan,''Good luck,old cock.Sorry to leave it in such a mess!'' Ditto Liam Byrne who followed the tradition.
The national debt has gone up from £1trillion in 2011 to £1.73 trillion in 2017, this is in a time of supposed austerity.
Are we to assume that austerity has not worked and we should try something else, whoever is in power?0 -
Add a few points?
If you can make head or tails of the polling right now, you're a better man than me Gunga Din.0 -
FPT
PB Tories: would we rather see Farron or Lucas lose their seat? I'm feeling conflicted here.0 -
I'm sure the men in grey suits will accept that analysis, unless they don't. Either way, I think Theresa May is finished because even a landslide will be seen by Conservative MPs to have been achieved despite her rather than because of her.grabcocque said:The pollsters have tried to fix their tendency to overstate Labour and undertstate the Tories by drastically reweighting. So if there is an unexpected youth surge, these weighting changes are likely to cause a large error in the other direction, overstating Tories and understating Labour.
What if there's never been a Tory landslide on the cards, and it's all been artefact of pollsters experimenting with differential turnout adjustments?
Good news for May I guess, then at least she won't have blown a nailed on Tory supermajority by being godawful at politics.0 -
Surely the SDP factor in 1983 is significant?0
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I guess I now count as a pb tory. Much prefer farron to Lucas, but Lucas losing doesn't effect if we get corbyn or not, which for me is the be all and end all.Essexit said:FPT
PB Tories: would we rather see Farron or Lucas lose their seat? I'm feeling conflicted here.0 -
Alex SalmondEssexit said:FPT
PB Tories: would we rather see Farron or Lucas lose their seat? I'm feeling conflicted here.0 -
It is, but UKIP have collapsed from 13% to 4/5% or so, and the Tories will get most of that. Add on to 38% last time.....FrancisUrquhart said:I always highly doubted that Tories would get more than 45%, that is already sky high.
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Maybe if not for austerity it would have gone from $1tn to £3tn?roserees64 said:In 1964 Tory Chancellor Reginald Maulding left a note to his successor James Callaghan,''Good luck,old cock.Sorry to leave it in such a mess!'' Ditto Liam Byrne who followed the tradition.
The national debt has gone up from £1trillion in 2011 to £1.73 trillion in 2017, this is in a time of supposed austerity.
Are we to assume that austerity has not worked and we should try something else, whoever is in power?
How can we know what might-have-beens would have become reality if a different path was followed?0 -
I'm not sure you understand the difference between deficit and debt. The last two governments have reduced the deficit, but a deficit is an annual increase in debt. So debt has increased massively. It went up about 150bn in year 1 of the coalition, and without significant social unrest I am unsure how it could have been reduced. Osborne swiftly dropped his plans to eliminate the deficit.roserees64 said:In 1964 Tory Chancellor Reginald Maulding left a note to his successor James Callaghan,''Good luck,old cock.Sorry to leave it in such a mess!'' Ditto Liam Byrne who followed the tradition.
The national debt has gone up from £1trillion in 2011 to £1.73 trillion in 2017, this is in a time of supposed austerity.
Are we to assume that austerity has not worked and we should try something else, whoever is in power?0 -
I agree with Mike. ICM and Comres have already added the 5% on for us. We can't get it twice.0
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I'd rather see Caroline Lucas lose. She's a sanctimonious see you next Tuesday and I rarely use that term.Essexit said:FPT
PB Tories: would we rather see Farron or Lucas lose their seat? I'm feeling conflicted here.
Farron on the first the other hand is ineffectual and should stay where he is.0 -
A tradition that was done twice with a 45 year gap? I know most British traditions are made up but really. We are not Americans where it is a tradition, or an old charter or something.roserees64 said:In 1964 Tory Chancellor Reginald Maulding left a note to his successor James Callaghan,''Good luck,old cock.Sorry to leave it in such a mess!'' Ditto Liam Byrne who followed the tradition.
The national debt has gone up from £1trillion in 2011 to £1.73 trillion in 2017, this is in a time of supposed austerity.
Are we to assume that austerity has not worked and we should try something else, whoever is in power?
Otherwise we'll all be murdered in our beds.0 -
We should assume that insider political jokes like Byrne's note will be used against the joker in these more ruthless times. There was another recent case in America, I think, where a defeated politician quoted that old chestnut, "the people have spoken, the bastards," and was lambasted for insulting voters. We live in humourless, partisan times.roserees64 said:In 1964 Tory Chancellor Reginald Maulding left a note to his successor James Callaghan,''Good luck,old cock.Sorry to leave it in such a mess!'' Ditto Liam Byrne who followed the tradition.
The national debt has gone up from £1trillion in 2011 to £1.73 trillion in 2017, this is in a time of supposed austerity.
Are we to assume that austerity has not worked and we should try something else, whoever is in power?0 -
Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .0
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I certainly do understand the difference between deficit and debt. The debt has increased massively since the Conservatives took office and deficit targets has been continually kicked into the long grass. Austerity has failed.0
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True, but you'd be entitled to your 3 point MOE, as would those at the other end of the spectrum. So the real range of possible 'correct' results is plus fifteen to minus two.DavidL said:I agree with Mike. ICM and Comres have already added the 5% on for us. We can't get it twice.
Serious punters will be needing their brown trousers.0 -
The key is turnout ie if turnout is the same as 2015 then ICM and Comres will be right and the Tories will be 11 or 12% ahead, if youth turnout really surges then yougov and Survation may be right. That is in the popular vote though, in the North and Scotland I expect to see a big swing to the Tories and for them to take a lot of Labour seats outside the big cities and SNP seats, in London barely any swing and the Tories to win no more than a handful and in the South a small swing to Labour but Labour only picking up a handful at most in areas like Brighton and Bristol0
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FPT
Need to get out moreBeverley_C said:Perhaps my view on this is rather coloured by the fact that, from my perspective, I get to see the leg coming over rather than being the leg-over person.
Not womanhood; just the 21st century.Beverley_C said:>I never thought about womanhood as a cure for Jihadiism and I am not sure I approve of it.
The Islamic heaven they are led to expect looks like a high-end brothel. Endless women. A river of wine.
Google Bernard Fayeur's The Islamic Hereafter for what they expect.
Each time we sleep with a houri we find her virgin. The penis of the Elected never softens. the erection is eternal; the sensation that you feel each time you make love is utterly delicious and out of this world and were you to experience it in this world you would faint. Each Muslim will marry seventy houris, besides the women he married on earth, and all will have appetising vaginas. - 16th century Islamic scholar Al-Suyuti
It's not exactly Holy Living and Holy Dying, is it?
If they focused on earthly cars, Ibiza, girls, and making money, I suspect they'd be in less of a hurry to blow themselves up to get into the great knocking shop in the sky.0 -
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FPT: It is all so juvenile ....Alice_Aforethought said:FPT
Need to get out moreBeverley_C said:Perhaps my view on this is rather coloured by the fact that, from my perspective, I get to see the leg coming over rather than being the leg-over person.
Not womanhood; just the 21st century.Beverley_C said:>I never thought about womanhood as a cure for Jihadiism and I am not sure I approve of it.
The Islamic heaven they are led to expect looks like a high-end brothel. Endless women. A river of wine.
Google Bernard Fayeur's The Islamic Hereafter for what they expect.
Each time we sleep with a houri we find her virgin. The penis of the Elected never softens. the erection is eternal; the sensation that you feel each time you make love is utterly delicious and out of this world and were you to experience it in this world you would faint. Each Muslim will marry seventy houris, besides the women he married on earth, and all will have appetising vaginas. - 16th century Islamic scholar Al-Suyuti
It's not exactly Holy Living and Holy Dying, is it?
If they focused on earthly cars, Ibiza, girls, and making money, I suspect they'd be in less of a hurry to blow themselves up to get into the great knocking shop in the sky.
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You think the budget should have been balanced sooner? I agree. What would you have cut?roserees64 said:I certainly do understand the difference between deficit and debt. The debt has increased massively since the Conservatives took office and deficit targets has been continually kicked into the long grass. Austerity has failed.
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Farron. Nothing to do with my fiver on the Tories to win W&L at 8/1, of course.Essexit said:FPT
PB Tories: would we rather see Farron or Lucas lose their seat? I'm feeling conflicted here.
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If you have an odd number of MPs not participating (Sinn Fein), then I think you can in practice, even if in theory it is still an even number.Mortimer said:Pretty sure you can't have an odd numbered majority, correct?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/871998549621444608
Incidentally, my projection of 104 matches our favourite JacobiteW and Martin Robbins.
And if he decides on a real number for a majority, possible Goodwin too!!0 -
We can see where Osborne flat-lined the recovery he inherited from Labour, and then where it continued as he abandoned Plan A. Before and after, we followed the American trend, so I guess it would be possible for an economist to measure the cost. It does not really seem pertinent now, with both Cameron and Osborne out of parliament, but if you have a niece looking for a thesis topic in economic history...Beverley_C said:
Maybe if not for austerity it would have gone from $1tn to £3tn?roserees64 said:In 1964 Tory Chancellor Reginald Maulding left a note to his successor James Callaghan,''Good luck,old cock.Sorry to leave it in such a mess!'' Ditto Liam Byrne who followed the tradition.
The national debt has gone up from £1trillion in 2011 to £1.73 trillion in 2017, this is in a time of supposed austerity.
Are we to assume that austerity has not worked and we should try something else, whoever is in power?
How can we know what might-have-beens would have become reality if a different path was followed?0 -
Is it just turnout though, or is it treatment of undecideds as well?HYUFD said:The key is turnout ie if turnout is the same as 2015 then ICM and Comres will be right and the Tories will be 11 or 12% ahead, if youth turnout really surges then yougov and Survation may be right. That is in the popular vote though, in the North and Scotland I expect to see a big swing to the Tories and for them to take a lot of Labour seats outside the big cities and SNP seats, in London barely any swing and the Tories to win no more than a handful and in the South a small swing to Labour but Labour only picking up a handful at most in areas like Brighton and Bristol
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That's in the polls now. It is not something new that will happen.Andrew said:
It is, but UKIP have collapsed from 13% to 4/5% or so, and the Tories will get most of that. Add on to 38% last time.....FrancisUrquhart said:I always highly doubted that Tories would get more than 45%, that is already sky high.
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0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......MarkSenior said:Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?0 -
Yup, you can only have a even numbered majority.Mortimer said:Pretty sure you can't have an odd numbered majority, correct?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/871998549621444608
Incidentally, my projection of 104 matches our favourite JacobiteW and Martin Robbins.
And if he decides on a real number for a majority, possible Goodwin too!!0 -
All our family seems to be in law or science. No economists in sightDecrepitJohnL said:
We can see where Osborne flat-lined the recovery he inherited from Labour, and then where it continued as he abandoned Plan A. Before and after, we followed the American trend, so I guess it would be possible for an economist to measure the cost. It does not really seem pertinent now, with both Cameron and Osborne out of parliament, but if you have a niece looking for a thesis topic in economic history...Beverley_C said:
Maybe if not for austerity it would have gone from $1tn to £3tn?roserees64 said:In 1964 Tory Chancellor Reginald Maulding left a note to his successor James Callaghan,''Good luck,old cock.Sorry to leave it in such a mess!'' Ditto Liam Byrne who followed the tradition.
The national debt has gone up from £1trillion in 2011 to £1.73 trillion in 2017, this is in a time of supposed austerity.
Are we to assume that austerity has not worked and we should try something else, whoever is in power?
How can we know what might-have-beens would have become reality if a different path was followed?0 -
I am not sure how you would reflect the fact that the markets looked at the polls and priced in a Conservative victory from 2008, though. There seems a good chance that Labour benefited from the markets' perception that they were going to lose the election - this was certainly the talk at the time.DecrepitJohnL said:We can see where Osborne flat-lined the recovery he inherited from Labour
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I've always thought (from my doorknocking under Brown and Cameron) that the polls were understating the shift from Labour to UKIP and overstating how many came from the Tories. I always assumed it was a vote which disgruntled ex-Labour could use without the physical sickness caused in many by voting Tory, sort of a gateway drug towards plucking up the courage to vote Tory and break the habit of generations. But maybe they're moving back.MikeSmithson said:
That's in the polls now. It is not something new that will happen.Andrew said:
It is, but UKIP have collapsed from 13% to 4/5% or so, and the Tories will get most of that. Add on to 38% last time.....FrancisUrquhart said:I always highly doubted that Tories would get more than 45%, that is already sky high.
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Late deciding undecideds almost always favour the incumbent partyChris said:
Is it just turnout though, or is it treatment of undecideds as well?HYUFD said:The key is turnout ie if turnout is the same as 2015 then ICM and Comres will be right and the Tories will be 11 or 12% ahead, if youth turnout really surges then yougov and Survation may be right. That is in the popular vote though, in the North and Scotland I expect to see a big swing to the Tories and for them to take a lot of Labour seats outside the big cities and SNP seats, in London barely any swing and the Tories to win no more than a handful and in the South a small swing to Labour but Labour only picking up a handful at most in areas like Brighton and Bristol
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Surely only true where you have an even number of seats?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, you can only have a even numbered majority.Mortimer said:Pretty sure you can't have an odd numbered majority, correct?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/871998549621444608
Incidentally, my projection of 104 matches our favourite JacobiteW and Martin Robbins.
And if he decides on a real number for a majority, possible Goodwin too!!
If we had 601 seats and Party A won 301 while the other won 300, A would have a majority of 1.0 -
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .Mortimer said:
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......MarkSenior said:Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?0 -
Labour left office with a deficit of 10% of GDP. For the debt not to increase, the government would have had to do abolish the NHS and the entire armed forces. Or double income tax and cut education spending to zero. Sound practical?roserees64 said:I certainly do understand the difference between deficit and debt. The debt has increased massively since the Conservatives took office and deficit targets has been continually kicked into the long grass. Austerity has failed.
The deficit has been cut from 10% of GDP to 2.6% last year, without mass unemployment. It's been a long and painful grind, but a success in the end.
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What I mean is, do different treatments of undecideds account for a significant part of the differences between pollsters. If I remember correctly they used to, but I'm not up to date.HYUFD said:
Late deciding undecideds almost always favour the incumbent partyChris said:
Is it just turnout though, or is it treatment of undecideds as well?HYUFD said:The key is turnout ie if turnout is the same as 2015 then ICM and Comres will be right and the Tories will be 11 or 12% ahead, if youth turnout really surges then yougov and Survation may be right. That is in the popular vote though, in the North and Scotland I expect to see a big swing to the Tories and for them to take a lot of Labour seats outside the big cities and SNP seats, in London barely any swing and the Tories to win no more than a handful and in the South a small swing to Labour but Labour only picking up a handful at most in areas like Brighton and Bristol
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Yup, I was talking about the current parliament.Alice_Aforethought said:
Surely only true where you have an even number of seats?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, you can only have a even numbered majority.Mortimer said:Pretty sure you can't have an odd numbered majority, correct?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/871998549621444608
Incidentally, my projection of 104 matches our favourite JacobiteW and Martin Robbins.
And if he decides on a real number for a majority, possible Goodwin too!!
If we had 601 seats and Party A won 301 while the other won 300, A would have a majority of 1.0 -
We are looking at a Conservative lead of between 6 and 12 on Mike's theory.
That 6 to 12 point lead is borne out in the projections posted on here.
On Sunday I thought Mrs May had played a blinder over the terrorist attacks. Since Monday, particularly with Steve Hilton's intervention the narrative has been wholly against the incumbent. Might this factor against the blue team come Thursday?
Another thought. Corbyn is an abomination? Could there be a raft of shy- Corbynites?
Damien Green struggling on Vine at the moment too? Not good when the magic money tree is wheeled out.
Hmmm?
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FPT:
Nigel Marriott ForecastNorthCadboll said:Just a thought on Scotland and the SCons.
Do your own research but remember in last month's locals on 1st preference the largest party was
Aberdeen: SNP SNP Hold North Con Gain South
Aberdeenshire: SCon South Con Gain WA&K Con Gain
Angus: SCon Con Gain
Argyll: SNP SNP Hold
Clackmannan: SNP SNP Hold
Dumfries and Galloway: SCon Con Hold
Dundee: SNP SNP Hold
East Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold
East Dunbartionshire: SNP SNP Hold
East Lothian: SLAB SNP Hold
East Renfrewhshire: SCon Lab Gain
Edinburgh: SCon: East/SW: SNP Hold North Lab Gain South Lab Hold
Falkirk: SNP SNP Hold
Fife: SNP SNP Hold
Glasgow: SNP SNP Hold
Highland, Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland: Indep LD Hold
Inverclyde: SNP SNP Hold
Midlothian: SNP SNP Hold
Moray: SCon Con Gain
North Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold
North Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold
Perthshire: SCon SNP Hold
Renfrewshire: SNP Paisley SNP Hold East Lab Gain
Scottish Borders: SCon Con Gain
South Ayrshire: SCon SNP Hold
South Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold
Stirling: SCon SNP Hold
West Dunbartonshire: SNP SNP Hold
West Lothian: SNP SNP Hold
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No, you obviously can't with an even number of members in terms of the final result of the election as it's eventually reported in the history books. So I hope he's not bet on the exact number!Mortimer said:Pretty sure you can't have an odd numbered majority, correct?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/871998549621444608
Incidentally, my projection of 104 matches our favourite JacobiteW and Martin Robbins.
And if he decides on a real number for a majority, possible Goodwin too!!
As has been mentioned, you could have MPs not taking their seats.
There was also the case the other year of a deferred election due to the death of a candidate which meant straight after the election that the majority was odd... but the eventual result was ultimately counted as a result of the General Election, just a "late score". If I recall correctly, however, the Tory MP (it was a safe seat) was quite annoyed as he'd rather fancied his chances of being Father of the House at some point, but it technically broke his continuous service record.0 -
On topic, the inference of the thread header is surely that the polls that show 0 to 7% (or thereabouts) leads are understated and the ones that show 12% leads are about right?
I am thinking 100 seat majority and 10 point lead.0 -
Hear hearAndrew said:
Labour left office with a deficit of 10% of GDP. For the debt not to increase, the government would have had to do abolish the NHS and the entire armed forces. Or double income tax and cut education spending to zero. Sound practical?roserees64 said:I certainly do understand the difference between deficit and debt. The debt has increased massively since the Conservatives took office and deficit targets has been continually kicked into the long grass. Austerity has failed.
The deficit has been cut from 10% of GDP to 2.6% last year, without mass unemployment. It's been a long and painful grind, but a success in the end.0 -
Au contraire.MarkSenior said:
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .Mortimer said:
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......MarkSenior said:Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
I've watched much of it and been canvassing and delivering. Not a single person has mentioned it.
Not has a single person mentioned it on facebook, other than those who already insult me for being a Tory. Literally insult me. It is pretty repulsive.0 -
It's a shame we don't even bother arguing the toss over the impact on growth of spending cuts like we did around 2010, and whether it is best to simply cut as much as we can get away with: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/dec/31/osborne-deficit-cuts-will-not-meet-labour-targetAlice_Aforethought said:
You think the budget should have been balanced sooner? I agree. What would you have cut?roserees64 said:I certainly do understand the difference between deficit and debt. The debt has increased massively since the Conservatives took office and deficit targets has been continually kicked into the long grass. Austerity has failed.
Granted I doubt Labour would have met their target either.0 -
40% is a midge lower then Blair's 40.7% in 2001. No they are not getting that.FrancisUrquhart said:I always highly doubted that Tories would get more than 45%, that is already sky high. The question is do labour really get 38-40 or icm level of 34%.
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The combined Lib Dem & UKIP share will be nowhere near Paddy 97 though.nunu said:
40% is a midge lower then Blair's 40.7% in 2001. No they are not getting that.FrancisUrquhart said:I always highly doubted that Tories would get more than 45%, that is already sky high. The question is do labour really get 38-40 or icm level of 34%.
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MikeSmithson said:
That's in the polls now. It is not something new that will happen.Andrew said:
It is, but UKIP have collapsed from 13% to 4/5% or so, and the Tories will get most of that. Add on to 38% last time.....FrancisUrquhart said:I always highly doubted that Tories would get more than 45%, that is already sky high.
What we don't know is how many UKIP intenders will get to the polling booth & find there isn't a candidate to vote for - and what they'll do then.....0 -
Thinking about it, if someone was going to do a Macron-style docs dump it would have to be evening today at the latest.0
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roserees64 said:
I certainly do understand the difference between deficit and debt. The debt has increased massively since the Conservatives took office and deficit targets has been continually kicked into the long grass. Austerity has failed.
Hmm, except for the full employment, low inflation, lowest inequality for thirty years, reduction in child poverty, one of strongest growing economies in the west and a deficit of 2.6%.
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That map shows Bish turning Blue. With BoJo in Shildon today, they must fancy their chances.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's also a red splodge in Sheffield where it is currently yellow, btw.0 -
So did Corby join in the chants of "gas, gas Tel Aviv"?
https://order-order.com/2017/06/06/corbyn-addressed-hundreds-of-al-muhajiroun-members-at-rally/0 -
Yes this is a very good point, and I suspect the answer is counterintuitive.CarlottaVance said:
What we don't know is how many UKIP intenders will get to the polling booth & find there isn't a candidate to vote for - and what they'll do then.....MikeSmithson said:
That's in the polls now. It is not something new that will happen.Andrew said:
It is, but UKIP have collapsed from 13% to 4/5% or so, and the Tories will get most of that. Add on to 38% last time.....FrancisUrquhart said:I always highly doubted that Tories would get more than 45%, that is already sky high.
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So, like one of Silvio Berlusconi's parties?Alice_Aforethought said:FPT
Need to get out moreBeverley_C said:Perhaps my view on this is rather coloured by the fact that, from my perspective, I get to see the leg coming over rather than being the leg-over person.
Not womanhood; just the 21st century.Beverley_C said:>I never thought about womanhood as a cure for Jihadiism and I am not sure I approve of it.
The Islamic heaven they are led to expect looks like a high-end brothel. Endless women. A river of wine.
Google Bernard Fayeur's The Islamic Hereafter for what they expect.
Each time we sleep with a houri we find her virgin. The penis of the Elected never softens. the erection is eternal; the sensation that you feel each time you make love is utterly delicious and out of this world and were you to experience it in this world you would faint. Each Muslim will marry seventy houris, besides the women he married on earth, and all will have appetising vaginas. - 16th century Islamic scholar Al-Suyuti
It's not exactly Holy Living and Holy Dying, is it?
If they focused on earthly cars, Ibiza, girls, and making money, I suspect they'd be in less of a hurry to blow themselves up to get into the great knocking shop in the sky.0 -
Anecdata: only one person has mentioned it in my hearing. This was in the context of a conversation among colleagues to the effect that that burglaries seem to be rare because everything's so cheap now there's nothing in most houses that's worth nicking to sell. Hence police numbers are down because we need fewer.Mortimer said:
Au contraire.MarkSenior said:
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .Mortimer said:
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......MarkSenior said:Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
I've watched much of it and been canvassing and delivering. Not a single person has mentioned it.
Not has a single person mentioned it on facebook, other than those who already insult me for being a Tory. Literally insult me. It is pretty repulsive.
It's about inputs versus outputs.0 -
As someone who accurately called Sheffield Hallam in 2015 I'm calling Clegg hold.SandyRentool said:
That map shows Bish turning Blue. With BoJo in Shildon today, they must fancy their chances.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's also a red splodge in Sheffield where it is currently yellow, btw.
Both the dementia tax and Labour's plans for those earning over 80k have not gone down well here.
But the Tories for Clegg have gone back to the blue meanies...
0 -
He misses Edinburgh West, where the LibDems were well in the lead on first preferences, including an astonishing 50% of the first preferences in Almond ward.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
Nigel Marriott ForecastNorthCadboll said:Just a thought on Scotland and the SCons.
Do your own research but remember in last month's locals on 1st preference the largest party was
Aberdeen: SNP SNP Hold North Con Gain South
Aberdeenshire: SCon South Con Gain WA&K Con Gain
Angus: SCon Con Gain
Argyll: SNP SNP Hold
Clackmannan: SNP SNP Hold
Dumfries and Galloway: SCon Con Hold
Dundee: SNP SNP Hold
East Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold
East Dunbartionshire: SNP SNP Hold
East Lothian: SLAB SNP Hold
East Renfrewhshire: SCon Lab Gain
Edinburgh: SCon: East/SW: SNP Hold North Lab Gain South Lab Hold
Falkirk: SNP SNP Hold
Fife: SNP SNP Hold
Glasgow: SNP SNP Hold
Highland, Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland: Indep LD Hold
Inverclyde: SNP SNP Hold
Midlothian: SNP SNP Hold
Moray: SCon Con Gain
North Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold
North Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold
Perthshire: SCon SNP Hold
Renfrewshire: SNP Paisley SNP Hold East Lab Gain
Scottish Borders: SCon Con Gain
South Ayrshire: SCon SNP Hold
South Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold
Stirling: SCon SNP Hold
West Dunbartonshire: SNP SNP Hold
West Lothian: SNP SNP Hold0 -
Theresa May - It's the economy stupid.
You need to point out to people that they can not have free everything provided by the government and everybody else will pay for it.
The 'everybody else' is you.0 -
just under 4 k majority, 7 k UKIP last time, no candidate this time.SandyRentool said:
That map shows Bish turning Blue. With BoJo in Shildon today, they must fancy their chances.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's also a red splodge in Sheffield where it is currently yellow, btw.0 -
I'm beginning to think there will be a lot ofpeople sitting on their hands. Worrying.williamglenn said:
Yes this is a very good point, and I suspect the answer is counterintuitive.CarlottaVance said:
What we don't know is how many UKIP intenders will get to the polling booth & find there isn't a candidate to vote for - and what they'll do then.....MikeSmithson said:
That's in the polls now. It is not something new that will happen.Andrew said:
It is, but UKIP have collapsed from 13% to 4/5% or so, and the Tories will get most of that. Add on to 38% last time.....FrancisUrquhart said:I always highly doubted that Tories would get more than 45%, that is already sky high.
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That's what I hope, but perhaps the country has changed dramatically since then.nunu said:
40% is a midge lower then Blair's 40.7% in 2001. No they are not getting that.FrancisUrquhart said:I always highly doubted that Tories would get more than 45%, that is already sky high. The question is do labour really get 38-40 or icm level of 34%.
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From a distance the only mention of it is from the resident Facebook bore who is de-friending people who have the temerity to challenge his view of the world - so familiar to that Daily Mash article - all my Tory Facebook friends have kept their heads down, while the Labour ones are signalling their virtue and agreeing with each other how dreadful Tories are....Mortimer said:
Au contraire.MarkSenior said:
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .Mortimer said:
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......MarkSenior said:Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
I've watched much of it and been canvassing and delivering. Not a single person has mentioned it.
Not has a single person mentioned it on facebook, other than those who already insult me for being a Tory. Literally insult me. It is pretty repulsive.0 -
Look for a possible clean sweep in cumbria. From two in 2015 to a possible six...SandyRentool said:
That map shows Bish turning Blue. With BoJo in Shildon today, they must fancy their chances.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's also a red splodge in Sheffield where it is currently yellow, btw.
0 -
But the Tories are not clearly ahead this time. Three companies .Survation, Mori, and YouGov suggest they will lose their majority -and these , rather than ICM and Comres are getting the headlines0
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Political gravity and reality have hit the Tories, seemingly very hard, across all of the polls. Yet, Labour, and Corbyn in particular, has appeared immune to everything that has been thrown at him.
May's credibility has been trashed, and Corbyn's has risen like a Phoenix. So the public only take notice of events in isolation, punish the sitting government and PM, and ignore the massive inadequacies presented by the alternative?
Is this credible?0 -
OMG Zahgba was on a watchlist too.
The British security service under May is useless0 -
He's calling Edinburgh West very tight - Lib Dem 29, SNP 31rcs1000 said:
He misses Edinburgh West, where the LibDems were well in the lead on first preferences, including an astonishing 50% of the first preferences in Almond ward.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
Nigel Marriott ForecastNorthCadboll said:Just a thought on Scotland and the SCons.
Do your own research but remember in last month's locals on 1st preference the largest party was
Aberdeen: SNP SNP Hold North Con Gain South
Aberdeenshire: SCon South Con Gain WA&K Con Gain
Angus: SCon Con Gain
Argyll: SNP SNP Hold
Clackmannan: SNP SNP Hold
Dumfries and Galloway: SCon Con Hold
Dundee: SNP SNP Hold
East Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold
East Dunbartionshire: SNP SNP Hold
East Lothian: SLAB SNP Hold
East Renfrewhshire: SCon Lab Gain
Edinburgh: SCon: East/SW: SNP Hold North Lab Gain South Lab Hold
Falkirk: SNP SNP Hold
Fife: SNP SNP Hold
Glasgow: SNP SNP Hold
Highland, Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland: Indep LD Hold
Inverclyde: SNP SNP Hold
Midlothian: SNP SNP Hold
Moray: SCon Con Gain
North Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold
North Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold
Perthshire: SCon SNP Hold
Renfrewshire: SNP Paisley SNP Hold East Lab Gain
Scottish Borders: SCon Con Gain
South Ayrshire: SCon SNP Hold
South Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold
Stirling: SCon SNP Hold
West Dunbartonshire: SNP SNP Hold
West Lothian: SNP SNP Hold0 -
I am uncomfortable with ComRes and ICM adding percentages to vote shares "for luck". This is not to say their figures match the reality less than the other pollsters. I think there has to be an objectivity and you go with your data. In principle, if people feel all polling underestimates a particular party they can add it themselves. Otherwise it's just soothsaying.0
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Maybe the official Russian hackers have infiltrated the polling panels.Rhubarb said:Thinking about it, if someone was going to do a Macron-style docs dump it would have to be evening today at the latest.
0 -
stevef said:
But the Tories are not clearly ahead this time. Three companies .Survation, Mori, and YouGov suggest they will lose their majority -and these , rather than ICM and Comres are getting the headlines
Welcome stevef - what generates headlines doesn't necessarily imply greater accuracy - and what might be the effect? Motivate Tories to get out & vote? Reassure Labour voters that they don't need to?0 -
The ICM treatment of undecideds tends to only change the figures by around a percent for the main parties, the vast majority of the difference is in the modelling.Chris said:
Is it just turnout though, or is it treatment of undecideds as well?HYUFD said:The key is turnout ie if turnout is the same as 2015 then ICM and Comres will be right and the Tories will be 11 or 12% ahead, if youth turnout really surges then yougov and Survation may be right. That is in the popular vote though, in the North and Scotland I expect to see a big swing to the Tories and for them to take a lot of Labour seats outside the big cities and SNP seats, in London barely any swing and the Tories to win no more than a handful and in the South a small swing to Labour but Labour only picking up a handful at most in areas like Brighton and Bristol
Compare Table 4 "THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS" to Table 5 which is their adjustment for DK/Refusers.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2017_guardian_poll9_2-4june.pdf0 -
O/T it's almost time for today's Trumpism isn't it?0
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Forget why they went to the polling booth, go home to watch Countdown, fall asleep in front of the 6 o'clock news and dream of England before the Windrush...CarlottaVance said:MikeSmithson said:
That's in the polls now. It is not something new that will happen.Andrew said:
It is, but UKIP have collapsed from 13% to 4/5% or so, and the Tories will get most of that. Add on to 38% last time.....FrancisUrquhart said:I always highly doubted that Tories would get more than 45%, that is already sky high.
What we don't know is how many UKIP intenders will get to the polling booth & find there isn't a candidate to vote for - and what they'll do then.....0 -
Ordinary police numbers cut and ordinary crime is down.MarkSenior said:
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .Mortimer said:
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......MarkSenior said:Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
Terrorist police budget increased. That is what matters.0 -
What would you have done differently?bigjohnowls said:OMG Zahgba was on a watchlist too.
The British security service under May is useless0 -
There are people of all parties who have witnessed the opening of postal votes for verification across the country. The parties know how things are panning out.stevef said:But the Tories are not clearly ahead this time. Three companies .Survation, Mori, and YouGov suggest they will lose their majority -and these , rather than ICM and Comres are getting the headlines
0 -
The extra tax for those earning 80k is something that many tell their mates and colleagues is right, and they wouldn't mind paying, but votes against in the privacy of the ballot box.TheScreamingEagles said:
As someone who accurately called Sheffield Hallam in 2015 I'm calling Clegg hold.SandyRentool said:
That map shows Bish turning Blue. With BoJo in Shildon today, they must fancy their chances.TheScreamingEagles said:
There's also a red splodge in Sheffield where it is currently yellow, btw.
Both the dementia tax and Labour's plans for those earning over 80k have not gone down well here.
But the Tories for Clegg have gone back to the blue meanies...
Two further problems for Labour: (1) plenty of professionals in the 40k+ salary bracket believe that they'll eventually be earning that, even if they never will be, and, (2) no-one really believes the 45p tax rate will end there.0 -
I'm surprised the Express is leading on polls predicting a hung parliament. Is that to help UKIP or what?0
-
It's possible.DecrepitJohnL said:
Maybe the official Russian hackers have infiltrated the polling panels.Rhubarb said:Thinking about it, if someone was going to do a Macron-style docs dump it would have to be evening today at the latest.
0 -
Armed Police downDavid_Evershed said:
Ordinary police numbers cut and ordinary crime is down.MarkSenior said:
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .Mortimer said:
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......MarkSenior said:Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
Terrorist police budget increased. That is what matters.
Terrorist success up0 -
Didn't you say ahead of the 2016 local elections that you thought the Conservatives would win by the same margin as 2015? When in the event, Labour won by 1%?notme said:
There are people of all parties who have witnessed the opening of postal votes for verification across the country. The parties know how things are panning out.stevef said:But the Tories are not clearly ahead this time. Three companies .Survation, Mori, and YouGov suggest they will lose their majority -and these , rather than ICM and Comres are getting the headlines
0 -
The famous "watch list" does seem to be of extremely limited utility as, quite obviously, those on it aren't closely watched at all.bigjohnowls said:OMG Zahgba was on a watchlist too.
The British security service under May is useless
0 -
Who says they are adding percentages "for luck"? I don't think you understand what they are doing. The majority of the difference between them and the self-reporters is in the turnout modelling.FF43 said:I am uncomfortable with ComRes and ICM adding percentages to vote shares "for luck". This is not to say their figures match the reality less than the other pollsters. I think there has to be an objectivity and you go with your data. In principle, if people feel all polling underestimates a particular party they can add it themselves. Otherwise it's just soothsaying.
0 -
Most burglaries are about funding a drugs habit.Alice_Aforethought said:
Anecdata: only one person has mentioned it in my hearing. This was in the context of a conversation among colleagues to the effect that that burglaries seem to be rare because everything's so cheap now there's nothing in most houses that's worth nicking to sell. Hence police numbers are down because we need fewer.Mortimer said:
Au contraire.MarkSenior said:
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .Mortimer said:
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......MarkSenior said:Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
I've watched much of it and been canvassing and delivering. Not a single person has mentioned it.
Not has a single person mentioned it on facebook, other than those who already insult me for being a Tory. Literally insult me. It is pretty repulsive.
It's about inputs versus outputs.0
