I cannot think of another campaign where the insights from campaigners & forecasters is so clearly at odds with some of the polls"
It's a very long shot and I'm not convinced I believe it myself, but I do wonder about shy Corbynites.
Forget students and Maomentumists for a moment. Think of Mondeo Man / Worcester Woman / etc. Everyone has been telling them for going on two years that Corbyn is an appalling danger to the country. Now you see him on the TV debates for the first time and... well, he looks ok... and Theresa May is perhaps not as competent as you thought...
Are you going to admit that to the canvassers after two years? No. Pretty definitely no. But maybe in the privacy of the ballot box you'll tick the Labour box.
The argument has massive holes and, as I say, I'm really not convinced of it. But it's the only alternative to "polling fail" I've been able to conceive so far.
Not clear at all that those national figures would result in an increased Tory majority, unless Opinium have done some specific constituency polling which they're not disclosing.
It definitely would because the two party share rising favours the larger party. UKIP won't hit 5% anyway.
The two-party share rose in 1992, but it was the larger party the Tories who got a bigger hit in their seats than UNS indicated!
Once again, it depends where the votes are distributed. If the national swing is as small as implied by Opinium, it's quite possible for there to be a small swing in a different direction in the marginals (just as there was in 2015).
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Personally, I think she is unwell
So do I.
There's an example from politics which I hope isn't relevant to this: Harold Wilson retired suddenly as Labour leader in 1976. He'd spotted a slow decline in his memory even if no-one else yet had. It was probably that, the apparent problems with MI5 and the general stress of office. He was only 60.
Presumably that is fraudulent misrepresentation and something you will, naturally, be reporting to the Electoral Commission given that you are a believer in decency and fair elections.
Lol. There are moments when the words move about on the poster. But nice try.
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Personally, I think she is unwell
I tend to agree. I don't have much time for Dianne Abbott's politics but on a personal level I would be concerned about her slowness to respond, her poor recall of facts and figures, her apparent inability to follow a line of questioning and her reduced vocabulary and repetitiveness.
It is not the same as the evasiveness and sloganeering we are all used to hearing from politicians across the political spectrum.
I cannot think of another campaign where the insights from campaigners & forecasters is so clearly at odds with some of the polls"
It's a very long shot and I'm not convinced I believe it myself, but I do wonder about shy Corbynites.
Forget students and Maomentumists for a moment. Think of Mondeo Man / Worcester Woman / etc. Everyone has been telling them for going on two years that Corbyn is an appalling danger to the country. Now you see him on the TV debates for the first time and... well, he looks ok... and Theresa May is perhaps not as competent as you thought...
Are you going to admit that to the canvassers after two years? No. Pretty definitely no. But maybe in the privacy of the ballot box you'll tick the Labour box.
The argument has massive holes and, as I say, I'm really not convinced of it. But it's the only alternative to "polling fail" I've been able to conceive so far.
Especially if Mondeo Man / Worcester Woman has a couple of kids just about to reach university age!
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Personally, I think she is unwell
Is she unwell, or just under huge pressure?
She's never had to justify herself before, just attack the Tories and blame other people. Now she really has to give serious answers for the first time. And she cannot.
Corbyn tripped up over this the other day too, when he called for TMay's resignation; he just defaulted to back-bench complainer mode.
Diane Abbott has been appearing on television for decades. Perhaps more than any other MP. She was a television reporter before being elected to parliament iirc. She graduated from Cambridge.
The point is she is not an idiot, and is not fazed by the cameras, yet has had one meltdown after another this campaign, so clearly something is wrong; badly wrong.
I cannot think of another campaign where the insights from campaigners & forecasters is so clearly at odds with some of the polls"
It's a very long shot and I'm not convinced I believe it myself, but I do wonder about shy Corbynites.
Forget students and Maomentumists for a moment. Think of Mondeo Man / Worcester Woman / etc. Everyone has been telling them for going on two years that Corbyn is an appalling danger to the country. Now you see him on the TV debates for the first time and... well, he looks ok... and Theresa May is perhaps not as competent as you thought...
Are you going to admit that to the canvassers after two years? No. Pretty definitely no. But maybe in the privacy of the ballot box you'll tick the Labour box.
The argument has massive holes and, as I say, I'm really not convinced of it. But it's the only alternative to "polling fail" I've been able to conceive so far.
It's not "polling fail" it "YouGou/Survation fail; ICM/ORB/MORI success" (or the other way round)
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Personally, I think she is unwell
Is she unwell, or just under huge pressure?
She's never had to justify herself before, just attack the Tories and blame other people. Now she really has to give serious answers for the first time. And she cannot.
Corbyn tripped up over this the other day too, when he called for TMay's resignation; he just defaulted to back-bench complainer mode.
I am not a doctor.... but to me she looked bloated, somewhat glazed and very slow compared to what I was used to from her days on TW with Portillo and Neill. This was not the same animated, quick-witted and lively person I recalled. It was quite shocking to see.
Maybe it is just sheer physical exhaustion but whatever the cause I do not think she should have been doing that interview. I suspect we may find out after 2200h on 8th June...
Presumably that is fraudulent misrepresentation and something you will, naturally, be reporting to the Electoral Commission given that you are a believer in decency and fair elections.
Fair election require a fair MSM we don't have that
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Personally, I think she is unwell
Is she unwell, or just under huge pressure?
She's never had to justify herself before, just attack the Tories and blame other people. Now she really has to give serious answers for the first time. And she cannot.
Corbyn tripped up over this the other day too, when he called for TMay's resignation; he just defaulted to back-bench complainer mode.
Diane Abbott has been appearing on television for decades. Perhaps more than any other MP. She was a television reporter before being elected to parliament iirc. She graduated from Cambridge.
The point is she is not an idiot, and is not fazed by the cameras, yet has had one meltdown after another this campaign, so clearly something is wrong; badly wrong.
Has she ever been put under this serious scrutiny before?
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Personally, I think she is unwell
So do I.
There's an example from politics which I hope isn't relevant to this: Harold Wilson retired suddenly as Labour leader in 1976. He'd spotted a slow decline in his memory even if no-one else yet had. It was probably that, the apparent problems with MI5 and the general stress of office. He was only 60.
I saw her on channel 4 news with Jon Snow last night I think he realised something was not right and eased off.
So my wife makes 36k working for the same company for over 5 years and got an offer of 10k tax free voluntary redundancy. she has till monday to decide.
Presumably that is fraudulent misrepresentation and something you will, naturally, be reporting to the Electoral Commission given that you are a believer in decency and fair elections.
Fair election require a fair MSM we don't have that
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Personally, I think she is unwell
Is she unwell, or just under huge pressure?
She's never had to justify herself before, just attack the Tories and blame other people. Now she really has to give serious answers for the first time. And she cannot.
Corbyn tripped up over this the other day too, when he called for TMay's resignation; he just defaulted to back-bench complainer mode.
Diane Abbott has been appearing on television for decades. Perhaps more than any other MP. She was a television reporter before being elected to parliament iirc. She graduated from Cambridge.
The point is she is not an idiot, and is not fazed by the cameras, yet has had one meltdown after another this campaign, so clearly something is wrong; badly wrong.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
Hemsworth - Christ I'd written that off a while ago. That is truly "deep".
I'll be honest: despite being Association Chairman, I'd written it off about three weeks ago when the polls made their first serious shift south for the Tories. Ironically, that was the same moment that CCHQ upgraded its status (though not to full 'target seat'). Given that I'm also responsible for Wakefield, this was a decision that came with mixed blessings as I had to divide resources in a way I wasn't convinced about. I've still spent very little time there and have given Wakefield priority whenever I could. We've not held either seat in at least 85 years and I didn't want to miss one due to over-ambition in the other (I would be somewhat miffed if we now end up missing Hemsworth by 300 and racking up a 6k majority in Wakefield but I don't think we'll be close to that far ahead).
As I say, I don't have a huge amount of evidence to go on and that which I do have I'm not entirely trusting of - but CCHQ have given TMay two visits to it and tried to schedule a third but we couldn't get the event ready with the notice given, so there might be something in it. We've also - again, for the first time in decades, if ever - managed to raise enough money to compete on something like level terms with Trickett, which I think has surprised him.
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Personally, I think she is unwell
Is she unwell, or just under huge pressure?
She's never had to justify herself before, just attack the Tories and blame other people. Now she really has to give serious answers for the first time. And she cannot.
Corbyn tripped up over this the other day too, when he called for TMay's resignation; he just defaulted to back-bench complainer mode.
I am not a doctor.... but to me she looked bloated, somewhat glazed and very slow compared to what I was used to from her days on TW with Portillo and Neill. This was not the same animated, quick-witted and lively person I recalled. It was quite shocking to see.
Maybe it is just sheer physical exhaustion but whatever the cause I do not think she should have been doing that interview. I suspect we may find out after 2200h on 8th June...
She was never quick-witted, and TV opinion pieces where you have a script is very different to being regularly in the firing line as a shadow home secretary in an election campaign. Her performance on Mastermind a few years back suggested she was never particularly smart when she didn't know the questions she might face. I'd say this is more extra scrutiny than illness.
I cannot think of another campaign where the insights from campaigners & forecasters is so clearly at odds with some of the polls"
It's a very long shot and I'm not convinced I believe it myself, but I do wonder about shy Corbynites.
Forget students and Maomentumists for a moment. Think of Mondeo Man / Worcester Woman / etc. Everyone has been telling them for going on two years that Corbyn is an appalling danger to the country. Now you see him on the TV debates for the first time and... well, he looks ok... and Theresa May is perhaps not as competent as you thought...
Are you going to admit that to the canvassers after two years? No. Pretty definitely no. But maybe in the privacy of the ballot box you'll tick the Labour box.
The argument has massive holes and, as I say, I'm really not convinced of it. But it's the only alternative to "polling fail" I've been able to conceive so far.
I could accept that argument as a reason for the narrowing of the polls; at the start you have shy Corbynites who feel emboldened by his campaigning and apparent coherence on the TV. I don't think it makes the polls any more accurate overall as I think they still haven't got to grips with how to sample the disinterested/busy.
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Personally, I think she is unwell
Is she unwell, or just under huge pressure?
She's never had to justify herself before, just attack the Tories and blame other people. Now she really has to give serious answers for the first time. And she cannot.
Corbyn tripped up over this the other day too, when he called for TMay's resignation; he just defaulted to back-bench complainer mode.
Diane Abbott has been appearing on television for decades. Perhaps more than any other MP. She was a television reporter before being elected to parliament iirc. She graduated from Cambridge.
The point is she is not an idiot, and is not fazed by the cameras, yet has had one meltdown after another this campaign, so clearly something is wrong; badly wrong.
Has she ever been put under this serious scrutiny before?
She must have been. She has been in politics too long.
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Personally, I think she is unwell
Is she unwell, or just under huge pressure?
She's never had to justify herself before, just attack the Tories and blame other people. Now she really has to give serious answers for the first time. And she cannot.
Corbyn tripped up over this the other day too, when he called for TMay's resignation; he just defaulted to back-bench complainer mode.
Diane Abbott has been appearing on television for decades. Perhaps more than any other MP. She was a television reporter before being elected to parliament iirc. She graduated from Cambridge.
The point is she is not an idiot, and is not fazed by the cameras, yet has had one meltdown after another this campaign, so clearly something is wrong; badly wrong.
Has she ever been put under this serious scrutiny before?
She must have been. She has been in politics too long.
A bold presumption. Perhaps you can find a vid of it?
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Personally, I think she is unwell
So do I.
There's an example from politics which I hope isn't relevant to this: Harold Wilson retired suddenly as Labour leader in 1976. He'd spotted a slow decline in his memory even if no-one else yet had. It was probably that, the apparent problems with MI5 and the general stress of office. He was only 60.
I saw her on channel 4 news with Jon Snow last night I think he realised something was not right and eased off.
Didn't we have all this with TMay a couple of weeks ago? Then it was hinted by some, including me, that maybe she was having a diabetes problem. Perhaps it's just that May and Abbott are humans and occasionally screw up.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
Comments
IDS losing his seat?!
Forget students and Maomentumists for a moment. Think of Mondeo Man / Worcester Woman / etc. Everyone has been telling them for going on two years that Corbyn is an appalling danger to the country. Now you see him on the TV debates for the first time and... well, he looks ok... and Theresa May is perhaps not as competent as you thought...
Are you going to admit that to the canvassers after two years? No. Pretty definitely no. But maybe in the privacy of the ballot box you'll tick the Labour box.
The argument has massive holes and, as I say, I'm really not convinced of it. But it's the only alternative to "polling fail" I've been able to conceive so far.
Once again, it depends where the votes are distributed. If the national swing is as small as implied by Opinium, it's quite possible for there to be a small swing in a different direction in the marginals (just as there was in 2015).
There's an example from politics which I hope isn't relevant to this: Harold Wilson retired suddenly as Labour leader in 1976. He'd spotted a slow decline in his memory even if no-one else yet had. It was probably that, the apparent problems with MI5 and the general stress of office. He was only 60.
It is not the same as the evasiveness and sloganeering we are all used to hearing from politicians across the political spectrum.
French Elections this weekend, with En Marche on 1.03 for a mojority.
The point is she is not an idiot, and is not fazed by the cameras, yet has had one meltdown after another this campaign, so clearly something is wrong; badly wrong.
Maybe it is just sheer physical exhaustion but whatever the cause I do not think she should have been doing that interview. I suspect we may find out after 2200h on 8th June...
Has she ever been put under this serious scrutiny before?
As I say, I don't have a huge amount of evidence to go on and that which I do have I'm not entirely trusting of - but CCHQ have given TMay two visits to it and tried to schedule a third but we couldn't get the event ready with the notice given, so there might be something in it. We've also - again, for the first time in decades, if ever - managed to raise enough money to compete on something like level terms with Trickett, which I think has surprised him.
NEW THREAD
Her performance on Mastermind a few years back suggested she was never particularly smart when she didn't know the questions she might face. I'd say this is more extra scrutiny than illness.
Cricket already reduced to 20 overs.
What will they reduced the marathon to?
Do people nowadays have such a short attention span?
http://myemail.constantcontact.com/Is-this-what-the-end-looks-like-.html?soid=1102665899193&aid=lkL8nEEVnTU
A bold presumption. Perhaps you can find a vid of it?
WillS.
NatCen Retweeted FT Westminster
NEW results from the NatCen Panel: 53% of under-30s say they're certain to vote, compared with 79% of the over-60s #GE2017
If thats true, Corbyn's screwed...
Now cut off by Saudi and other neighbours.
Trump claims credit.