At the start of the campaign, who'd have said we would be where we are now?
So it's premature to declare that we're now in a permanent age of two-party politics - the landscape is simply too unpredictable to call right now. If Labour goes down to a 100-seat defeat and Corbyn or an acolyte hangs on to the leadership, I think SDP2 is a very real possibility.
(...and if you want to concoct even more intriguing scenarios, imagine that the Lib Dems are reduced to 4 or 5 seats, but that one of them is Cable.)
It's been a SW London campaign for SW London people. Now which prominent Lib Dem could that possibly benefit...
Regardless of the result, the Tories have screwed up massively. They have allowed corbynism to be legitimised and the chance of seeing a sensible centre left pro business labour party in the near future off the agenda. IMO that is really bad for the country. I want a sensible competent opposition.
@ Francis
Surely what you describe ensures they'll get re-elected in perpetuity? Which is not screwing up, but the whole idea?
No chance. I'm fully expecting the 2022 General Election to be awful for the Tories.
Let's see if we can get the 2017 one right before making predictions about 2022!
Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .
Ordinary police numbers cut and ordinary crime is down.
Terrorist police budget increased. That is what matters.
So cutting police is responsible for crime coming down? They might be crap but suggesting their absense leads to a reduction in crime is bonkers!
Reducing car journeys into London reduces traffic speeds.
It might reduce accidents but I can't see how it could reduce car speeds.
The car journeys are replaced by bus and cycle journeys.
TfL used to publish the stats but no longer seems to do so, probably because they are so embarrassing.
If car journeys fall, bus and bike journeys rise, yet traffic slows down, then either the latter cause congestion, or something else does. Maybe there are more jaywalkers or maybe traffic management schemes are to blame.
I'm lazy. Anyone got a constituency list of seats with Tory + UKIP at 45%+ they could share with me?
Interesting in the North-East, Midlands and Yorks/Lancs in particular.
However, the question is whether the Tories are actually taking all Kipper votes in those places. Or are the Tories' gains from UKIP coming disproportionately in safe Tory seats?
It COULD potentially be like the mass LD->Lab migration in 2015. Everyone thought marginal Tory-Lab seats with huge LD votes to squeeze would be slam-dunk Labour gains (thinking of Warrington South for instance).....in reality, although Labour gained huge numbers of LD votes, it was mostly in safe Labour seats, while the LD votes in marginals split more evenly between Labour and the Tories.
I am uncomfortable with ComRes and ICM adding percentages to vote shares "for luck". This is not to say their figures match the reality less than the other pollsters. I think there has to be an objectivity and you go with your data. In principle, if people feel all polling underestimates a particular party they can add it themselves. Otherwise it's just soothsaying.
Who says they are adding percentages "for luck"? I don't think you understand what they are doing. The majority of the difference between them and the self-reporters is in the turnout modelling.
ICM and COMRES weighting 18-24s back to 2015 levels
I will be amazed if turnout in that group isnt higher
Actually that is false, they do not specifically weight to 2015 levels:
"ICM has constructed a turnout probability matrix based on an interlocking combination of age and social grade. Turnout estimates from various sources, most notably but not limited to the British Election studies were factored into the matrix in order provide a best estimate for each demographic subgroup, modelled to population incidence and real turnout levels from the 2015 General Election. "
They adjust the self-report by the efficiency of that demographic's turnout in 2015, which is not the same as simply saying that turnout will be the same.
Would be nice to hear it from a pro Corbyn source. I would think the Tories would be disappointed with a 50 majority even with the uncertainty at this stage surrounding polling.
I am uncomfortable with ComRes and ICM adding percentages to vote shares "for luck". This is not to say their figures match the reality less than the other pollsters. I think there has to be an objectivity and you go with your data. In principle, if people feel all polling underestimates a particular party they can add it themselves. Otherwise it's just soothsaying.
Who says they are adding percentages "for luck"? I don't think you understand what they are doing. The majority of the difference between them and the self-reporters is in the turnout modelling.
ICM and COMRES weighting 18-24s back to 2015 levels
I will be amazed if turnout in that group isnt higher
I was looking at IndyRef 2014 - 84.59 % turnout. in total.
Reported turnout from 18-24s? 54 %
So what's that, scaled to the 66 % turnout of a GE? 42 % - which is bang on the mark for estimates of youth turnout in that election.
I wonder if this relationship holds up for other elections?
Regardless of the result, the Tories have screwed up massively. They have allowed corbynism to be legitimised and the chance of seeing a sensible centre left pro business labour party in the near future off the agenda. IMO that is really bad for the country. I want a sensible competent opposition.
@ Francis
Surely what you describe ensures they'll get re-elected in perpetuity? Which is not screwing up, but the whole idea?
No chance. I'm fully expecting the 2022 General Election to be awful for the Tories.
Let's see if we can get the 2017 one right before making predictions about 2022!
Blimey yes. All depends on the numbers :E
2010 is the GE that no one wants to win....
Rather cunningly Cameron didn't win it though. The Tories claimed all the good stuff and the Lib Dems all the bad stuff ! The old pendulum is swinging against the Tories though, and sure as night follows day it'll eventually end up with them out of power eventually. Certainly not yet though.
No I clearly stated these were the 32 Council areas not the 59 Westminster Constituencies. In the City of Edinburgh the Tories had the highest number of 1st preference votes, the only comparator you can use given we have the STV system for council elections
Nigel Marriott Forecast Do your own research but remember in last month's locals on 1st preference the largest party was Aberdeen: SNP SNP Hold North Con Gain South Aberdeenshire: SCon South Con Gain WA&K Con Gain Angus: SCon Con Gain Argyll: SNP SNP Hold Clackmannan: SNP SNP Hold Dumfries and Galloway: SCon Con Hold Dundee: SNP SNP Hold East Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold East Dunbartionshire: SNP SNP Hold East Lothian: SLAB SNP Hold East Renfrewhshire: SCon Lab Gain Edinburgh: SCon: East/SW: SNP Hold North Lab Gain South Lab Hold Falkirk: SNP SNP Hold Fife: SNP SNP Hold Glasgow: SNP SNP Hold Highland, Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland: Indep LD Hold Inverclyde: SNP SNP Hold Midlothian: SNP SNP Hold Moray: SCon Con Gain North Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold North Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold Perthshire: SCon SNP Hold Renfrewshire: SNP Paisley SNP Hold East Lab Gain Scottish Borders: SCon Con Gain South Ayrshire: SCon SNP Hold South Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold Stirling: SCon SNP Hold West Dunbartonshire: SNP SNP Hold West Lothian: SNP SNP Hold
He misses Edinburgh West, where the LibDems were well in the lead on first preferences, including an astonishing 50% of the first preferences in Almond ward.
Regardless of the result, the Tories have screwed up massively. They have allowed corbynism to be legitimised and the chance of seeing a sensible centre left pro business labour party in the near future off the agenda. IMO that is really bad for the country. I want a sensible competent opposition.
@ Francis
Surely what you describe ensures they'll get re-elected in perpetuity? Which is not screwing up, but the whole idea?
No chance. I'm fully expecting the 2022 General Election to be awful for the Tories.
Let's see if we can get the 2017 one right before making predictions about 2022!
Blimey yes. All depends on the numbers :E
2010 is the GE that no one wants to win....
Rather cunningly Cameron didn't win it though. The Tories claimed all the good stuff and the Lib Dems all the bad stuff ! The old pendulum is swinging against the Tories though, and sure as night follows day it'll eventually end up with them out of power eventually. Certainly not yet though.
Not in 2022 either if Corbyn remains leader or the Labour party splits.
A straw in the wind to demonstrate how the respective Red and Blue campaign teams think it is going.
As a Tory Activist in a safe seat (SW Beds) my efforts are directed to where they will be of most use. In 2015 I was sent to Milton Keynes South and then later, as the campaign went on, to Bedford.
In 2017 it has been entirely Luton South (I was there yesterday evening delivering in the rain!). All local Blue 'mutual aid' is going there from the other neighbouring safe seats (i.e Hitchin & Harpenden).
Yesterday I received an e-mail from the Labour party (I'm a £3 quidder) asking for my help in ..... Luton South.
If Labour had any faith in the surge the polls apparently point to, then it would be directing resources to Bedford (barely a 1,000 majority) or Milton Keynes South (8k) if they were confident that Bedford was in the bag.
Why is Labour playing defensive on a seat they hold by 5k+ if we really are in NOM territory? I suspect the answer is that they know the likes of YOUGOV and Survation have got it wrong..
A straw in the wind, no more.
When people like yourself thought it would be a great wheeze to try to destabilise the opposition by joining the party illegally and influencing their leadership election I wonder if it ever occurred to you that you may one day be partly responsible for foisting a hard-left government on the country? The irony would be too sweet. It won't happen Thursday but you never know what forces you may have unleashed. I wonder if looks quite so clever now.
So does one remortgage the house to pile on con maj at 1/4, or chicken out and suffer a lifetime of non-backer's remorse?
Up to you but the big-staking punters will often pile in at the end, so you have another dilemma -- wait too long and you miss the price; bet too early and you are at the mercy of events.
Regardless of the result, the Tories have screwed up massively. They have allowed corbynism to be legitimised and the chance of seeing a sensible centre left pro business labour party in the near future off the agenda. IMO that is really bad for the country. I want a sensible competent opposition.
@ Francis
Surely what you describe ensures they'll get re-elected in perpetuity? Which is not screwing up, but the whole idea?
No chance. I'm fully expecting the 2022 General Election to be awful for the Tories.
Let's see if we can get the 2017 one right before making predictions about 2022!
Agreed.
Besides, if the FTPA is repealed, we don't even know what year the election will be, never mind the result.
Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .
Ordinary police numbers cut and ordinary crime is down.
Terrorist police budget increased. That is what matters.
Armed Police down
Terrorist success up
Strange how terrorist successes under Labour and shooting of innocents didn't seem to bother you so much.
Back in 2015 a few weeks before the GE after internal polling in Dover the Tory MP went from something like 7/4 to 1/14, the UKIP candidate had been as low as 9/4 and went to 16/1. Resources were sent to neighbouring Thanet South.
So does one remortgage the house to pile on con maj at 1/4, or chicken out and suffer a lifetime of non-backer's remorse?
Up to you but the big-staking punters will often pile in at the end, so you have another dilemma -- wait too long and you miss the price; bet too early and you are at the mercy of events.
I went back in on May being PM after the election, some wiggle room from Con Maj for that.
Nigel Marriott Forecast Do your own research but remember in last month's locals on 1st preference the largest party was Aberdeen: SNP SNP Hold North Con Gain South Aberdeenshire: SCon South Con Gain WA&K Con Gain Angus: SCon Con Gain Argyll: SNP SNP Hold Clackmannan: SNP SNP Hold Dumfries and Galloway: SCon Con Hold Dundee: SNP SNP Hold East Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold East Dunbartionshire: SNP SNP Hold East Lothian: SLAB SNP Hold East Renfrewhshire: SCon Lab Gain Edinburgh: SCon: East/SW: SNP Hold North Lab Gain South Lab Hold Falkirk: SNP SNP Hold Fife: SNP SNP Hold Glasgow: SNP SNP Hold Highland, Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland: Indep LD Hold Inverclyde: SNP SNP Hold Midlothian: SNP SNP Hold Moray: SCon Con Gain North Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold North Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold Perthshire: SCon SNP Hold Renfrewshire: SNP Paisley SNP Hold East Lab Gain Scottish Borders: SCon Con Gain South Ayrshire: SCon SNP Hold South Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold Stirling: SCon SNP Hold West Dunbartonshire: SNP SNP Hold West Lothian: SNP SNP Hold
He misses Edinburgh West, where the LibDems were well in the lead on first preferences, including an astonishing 50% of the first preferences in Almond ward.
He's calling Edinburgh West very tight - Lib Dem 29, SNP 31
But I thought the point about this analysis was that it was based around last month's locals?
I think some of the sarky questions about counter-terrorism and police numbers being asked by the media, are getting beyond what is acceptable when there are "live" investigations going on.
You would think the PM should personally stand at the border and check every individual coming back from abroad. The police already have the powers to detain these people and I'm sure some very searching questions will be asked at the appropriate time.
Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .
Ordinary police numbers cut and ordinary crime is down.
Terrorist police budget increased. That is what matters.
Armed Police down
Terrorist success up
Strange how terrorist successes under Labour and shooting of innocents didn't seem to bother you so much.
Blaming current/recent governments for terrorist success is like blaming Doctors for not curing lung cancer in a patient who smoked 40 a day. These things take time to build, they can only play the hand they are dealt
Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .
Ordinary police numbers cut and ordinary crime is down.
Terrorist police budget increased. That is what matters.
I thought you would have retired gracefully by now Mark given how accurate you were in 2010 and 2015. Just where are those 100+ LibDem MPs you confidently predicted in 2010 and 2015?
Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
Regardless of the result, the Tories have screwed up massively. They have allowed corbynism to be legitimised and the chance of seeing a sensible centre left pro business labour party in the near future off the agenda. IMO that is really bad for the country. I want a sensible competent opposition.
@ Francis
Surely what you describe ensures they'll get re-elected in perpetuity? Which is not screwing up, but the whole idea?
No chance. I'm fully expecting the 2022 General Election to be awful for the Tories.
Let's see if we can get the 2017 one right before making predictions about 2022!
Blimey yes. All depends on the numbers :E
2010 is the GE that no one wants to win....
Rather cunningly Cameron didn't win it though. The Tories claimed all the good stuff and the Lib Dems all the bad stuff ! The old pendulum is swinging against the Tories though, and sure as night follows day it'll eventually end up with them out of power eventually. Certainly not yet though.
If the economy is looking good in GE2022, there is a new charismatic leader (not May), there are some quick wins from Brexit to declare, and Labour still has Corbyn as leader, the Tories will win.
If Brexit leads to a slump, May stubbornly persists until the end, with no better candidate, the Tories resort to infighting, and Labour pick a charismatic centrist leader, then Labour will win.
Can I just post my thoughts on shy Tories. I have always voted Tory but the thing I find really really offensive is the left`s attitude to people like me. An example was in the last thread. I have all my life paid tax, done charity work and when I had a business helped our least wealthy clients. This election feels nasty if you dare to mention you are a Tory or pass an opinion you get shouted down. My Facebook feed is dominated by 2 posters who constantly post things from The Canary, between their 500 friends no one likes, shares or comments on it . The lack of posters; why would you after seeing examples of vandalising . I did notice this morning a Tory Councillor who always has a poster didn`t and I don`t think its because she has turned to the Labour Party. If I was faced on the door step or the phone with a Labour canvasser of course I would say I was Labour I don`t want the hassle.I do wonder how many people like me are out there. suppose we shall see on Thursday.
That is pretty unfair of you. The intelligence services have a very difficulty job to do. They have to get it right 100% of the time whereas the terrorists need only get lucky once, as someone once said.
We don't know how many plots have been foiled. Nor do we know how many other people were higher on the priority list. It is a very difficult judgment call to assess who should be looked at more closely, especially in the absence of any evidence. Having a vehicle and a knife in your possession is hardly evidence.
These people do an incredibly hard job and they deserve our support not brickbats by people seeking to make cheap political points and who support a party led by a man who has never supported the intelligence and security services, who has sought out the very terrorists these people are trying to protect us from and who is on record saying that we should not criticize those expressing pro-IS views or doing anything about people returning from places like Syria.
I'm sure that the security services will be looking at what happened here and seeking to learn lessons. But you should be ashamed of attacking people who are doing the very best to protect all of us.
One small point: this person was on the Italian watchlist.
One further obvious point: all three of these terrorists were not born in Britain. Why did we let them into Britain? They were not badly needed research scientists. That too raises questions for Mrs May. But it also raises questions for Mr Corbyn who wants no limits on immigration and apparently wants to let even more low-skilled people from outside the EU into the country.
Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .
Ordinary police numbers cut and ordinary crime is down.
Terrorist police budget increased. That is what matters.
Armed Police down
Terrorist success up
Strange how terrorist successes under Labour and shooting of innocents didn't seem to bother you so much.
Blaming current/recent governments for terrorist success is like blaming Doctors for not curing lung cancer in a patient who smoked 40 a day. These things take time to build, they can only play the hand they are dealt
How do you know? OK, there's an election on but come Friday, how do we know the Manchester bomber could not have been stopped while buying bomb components, or ... well, you get the picture?
Regardless of the result, the Tories have screwed up massively. They have allowed corbynism to be legitimised and the chance of seeing a sensible centre left pro business labour party in the near future off the agenda. IMO that is really bad for the country. I want a sensible competent opposition.
@ Francis
Surely what you describe ensures they'll get re-elected in perpetuity? Which is not screwing up, but the whole idea?
At some point things will go tits up and the Tories get the boot. I would prefer a SO-style labour party in the wings waiting to take over than the option that is currently giving me sleepless nights.
You see I think the Tories will get the boot only when there is "a SO-style labour party [a what?] in the wings waiting to take over". As long as the opposition is, shall we say, a little bit "out there", they'll be defeated. They'll only stand a chance when they appear fit to govern.
@George_Osborne: Diane Abbott has pulled out of @EveningStandard hustings. It's not like someone who wants to be Home Sec has much to talk about these days..
It was always thought amongst the advertisers that he was ridiculously over promoted yet he's now credited with getting Cameron elected.... making the Tory party user friendly........persuading the country to vote Brexit .....getting him and Osborne fired...... and causing TM's poll numbers to tank..........
I was going to say he gives advertising a bad name but maybe he's just moved it to a new level.
Let's put "turnout modelling" into quotes. They have to call it something respectable. Bear in mind they have already done the turnout squeeze on the entire sample. This would suggest Labour voters are less likely to turnout after saying they will across all demographics than supporters of other parties. It's possible, but it is just as likely (more likely IMO) that there is a problem with sampling or weighting that affects all polling companies.
ICM’s view, which has been so long-held it pre-dates even my own 22 years in situ, is that polls intrinsically inflate Labour’s share—there’s more evidence of this than a stick can be shaken at—and finding ways to mitigate that problem is the responsibility of the polling agency. So, to summarise, YouGov are softer on turnout than ICM and have a 5-point Tory lead. ICM is probably the hardest polling firm on turnout and we have a 14-point Tory lead.
...
But the raw data we collect is, actually, the core problem. After 2015, the British Polling Council Inquiry identified “unrepresentative samples” as the cause of the polling miss, and all us pollsters have tried to address this problem in different ways. The difficulty is that nobody really understands why the samples were unrepresentative, and if the problem is too complex to understand, you can bet the solution might be directed towards the wrong root cause.
Basically they discount the Labour share of the vote because it's always too high, for reasons they don't understand.
It has nothing to do with discounting the Labour vote, it's about samples having too many enthusiastic political anoraks. Yes, they ask the question about turnout like all the others. They know however that because their sample is unrepresentative that they have far too many people of certain demographics who say they will turn out than actually do.
ICM use the modelling to compare self-reporting to how in real elections people in these demographic groups behave. In theory this should weight down the over-enthused.
Why you think this is worse than a polling company that does **** all to try and correct their sample I don't understand.
That's a hypothesis, and a different one from the one you gave just a moment ago that Labour supporters turn out differentially. It is possible, but bear in mind most polling companies weight on how people said they voted in the past. I repeat ICM and Comres are not necessarily wrong with their adjustment but they are reacting to a polling problem in the 2015 election that presumably didn't exist to the same extent before and may not exist now. The political landscape was very particular in 2015 with the rise of UKIP.
Has Mrs Weak and Wobbly promised to give us back the 20,000 police she cut . The narrative of cuts in police numbers is really toxic for the Conservatives at this late stage in the campaign . Rightly or wrongly whether cutting the numbers was right to do or wrong or affects crime/terrorism or not is immaterial . 20,000 is a neat round number which voters on Thursday will remember as their pencil wavers away from putting a cross in the Conservative box .
0 is also a neat round number. Perhaps we'll see the Lib Dem seats number fall to it by Friday morning......
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
You clearly have not watched any of the political coverage today or talked to any non partisan voters in the last 2 days . The police numbers story is very very toxic for the Conservatives and at the wrong time for them at the end of the campaign .
Ordinary police numbers cut and ordinary crime is down.
Terrorist police budget increased. That is what matters.
Armed Police down
Terrorist success up
Strange how terrorist successes under Labour and shooting of innocents didn't seem to bother you so much.
Blaming current/recent governments for terrorist success is like blaming Doctors for not curing lung cancer in a patient who smoked 40 a day. These things take time to build, they can only play the hand they are dealt
How do you know? OK, there's an election on but come Friday, how do we know the Manchester bomber could not have been stopped while buying bomb components, or ... well, you get the picture?
There are up to 23,000 Jihadis in the country. If they want to cause terror, they will. The point is there should never have been so much immigration that the % of wronguns was able to number 23,000.
@George_Osborne: Diane Abbott has pulled out of @EveningStandard hustings. It's not like someone who wants to be Home Sec has much to talk about these days..
I despise her, but I do feel sorry for now. This is public humiliation of biblical proportions
I agree. Conservatives 6.8 on the exchanges is very tempting and would be a massive statement of intent, winning in such an area. It may only take around 13k to win this seat with the split Lab/Danczuk vote. Some of the Labour 2015 vote may even drift back to its natural yellow home. Tony Lloyd is a decent candidate so Labour may just hang on, but it really could go any of three ways.
Would love to hear some local intel (not from Rochdale Pioneers I hasten to add!) and would like to know if the abuse scandal is something that will lead to unusual voting, or was this already the case in 2015?
It was always thought amongst the advertisers that he was ridiculously over promoted yet he's now credited with getting Cameron elected.... making the Tory party user friendly........persuading the country to vote Brexit .....getting him and Osborne fired...... and causing TM's poll numbers to tank..........
I was going to say he gives advertising a bad name but maybe he's just moved it to a new level.
Steve Hilton's confirming the belief of everyone who has every met/dealt with him that Steve Hilton is a complete tosser.
I am uncomfortable with ComRes and ICM adding percentages to vote shares "for luck". This is not to say their figures match the reality less than the other pollsters. I think there has to be an objectivity and you go with your data. In principle, if people feel all polling underestimates a particular party they can add it themselves. Otherwise it's just soothsaying.
Who says they are adding percentages "for luck"? I don't think you understand what they are doing. The majority of the difference between them and the self-reporters is in the turnout modelling.
ICM and COMRES weighting 18-24s back to 2015 levels
I will be amazed if turnout in that group isnt higher
I was looking at IndyRef 2014 - 84.59 % turnout. in total.
Reported turnout from 18-24s? 54 %
So what's that, scaled to the 66 % turnout of a GE? 42 % - which is bang on the mark for estimates of youth turnout in that election.
I wonder if this relationship holds up for other elections?
Something like this would surely, in normal circumstances, spell the death knell of any serious PM candidate, or even a party leader.
So how does Corbyn continue to defy gravity?
Money. Promise people free stuff and they simply don't care about his terrorist appeasement, barmy ideas, economic incoherence, and intellectual deficiencies.
Can I just post my thoughts on shy Tories. I have always voted Tory but the thing I find really really offensive is the left`s attitude to people like me. An example was in the last thread. I have all my life paid tax, done charity work and when I had a business helped our least wealthy clients. This election feels nasty if you dare to mention you are a Tory or pass an opinion you get shouted down. My Facebook feed is dominated by 2 posters who constantly post things from The Canary, between their 500 friends no one likes, shares or comments on it . The lack of posters; why would you after seeing examples of vandalising . I did notice this morning a Tory Councillor who always has a poster didn`t and I don`t think its because she has turned to the Labour Party. If I was faced on the door step or the phone with a Labour canvasser of course I would say I was Labour I don`t want the hassle.I do wonder how many people like me are out there. suppose we shall see on Thursday.
Entirely get where your coming from. Exactly same here - have to hide it even more so working in local government
How do you know? OK, there's an election on but come Friday, how do we know the Manchester bomber could not have been stopped while buying bomb components, or ... well, you get the picture?
I agree we can't know. Way too early. But therefore it's surely too early to be assigning blame to politicians?
Something like this would surely, in normal circumstances, spell the death knell of any serious PM candidate, or even a party leader.
So how does Corbyn continue to defy gravity?
That he offers some kind of hope and social security whereas the Tory effort focuses on the message that 1) having a society worthy of the name is tantamount to giving into Daesh, 2) what's good for people is getting a bloody good thrashing by people who speak with posh accents and were born highly competent, and 3) asking what's wrong with the City of London, inheritance of fortunes, etc., means you're stupid - that has something to do with it.
That's a very non-crunchy analysis by Silver there:
- He hasn't identified any specific areas where polling could be questionable (which serious analysts of the UK polls have done). If he had done so, he could have asked serious questions on what the actual youth turnout could be in comparison to the self-reported likelihood of turnout. Or about the questions on sampling, weighting, and huge swings of opinion throughout the campaign.
- He hasn't looked at other analysts records (for example, Number Crunching Politics (run by Matt Singh) not only got the last election spot on when the polls were well off, he did so in advance and with huge amounts of evidence showing that no fewer than three reliable ways of modelling the result other than the headline polls all pointed to a massive polling error in the conservatives favour: he not only identified that there was going to be an error, he identified the direction and the magnitude. Why hasn't Silver noted that and looked into that?
- He has come up with a "rule" out of nowhere (that polling error is always in the opposite direction of conventional wisdom), ignored the fact that said "rule", when applied to UK elections, has overwhelmingly been far more wrong than right, and assumed that his new rule will apply this time because - well, no "because" is given.
- The variant rule of "Tories are overstated when they're well in the lead" relies on data from events far in the past under different polling systems and, without any serious attempt to explain the mechanism by which this should be true, is more astrology than science. It's the sort of thing Silver has (rightly) condemned pundits for in the past.
Meanwhile, Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics pulled off the electoral analysis of the century to date last time around by successfully predicting the polling disaster in 2015. Not by luck or by gut feel, but by ten pages of researched and comprehensive analysis showing that the polls were totally divorced from the fundamentals at the time (based on leadership ratings PLUS local election results PLUS historic sources of polling error).
As at two weeks ago, his analysis (which pointed to a 7-10 point Tory lead in 2015 in defiance of the dead-level polling score) was pointing to a "mid-teens" Conservative lead. Looking at the basis of the model, May's falling leadership ratings will detract from that and cause more fuzziness - I'd guess his model would now be pointing to a Conservative win of 9-14 points, which is quite coherent with the ICM/ComRes/TNS cluster and greater than the average of the polls.
Can I just post my thoughts on shy Tories. I have always voted Tory but the thing I find really really offensive is the left`s attitude to people like me. An example was in the last thread. I have all my life paid tax, done charity work and when I had a business helped our least wealthy clients. This election feels nasty if you dare to mention you are a Tory or pass an opinion you get shouted down. My Facebook feed is dominated by 2 posters who constantly post things from The Canary, between their 500 friends no one likes, shares or comments on it . The lack of posters; why would you after seeing examples of vandalising . I did notice this morning a Tory Councillor who always has a poster didn`t and I don`t think its because she has turned to the Labour Party. If I was faced on the door step or the phone with a Labour canvasser of course I would say I was Labour I don`t want the hassle.I do wonder how many people like me are out there. suppose we shall see on Thursday.
Absoultely. Systematic defacing of Tory placards etc all around my area including in peoples gardens. Very deliberate and very intimidatory. A kinder gentler politics.
FOUR leaflets from Lib Dems today - they say its a two horse race but then in the local paper they say they are alarmed at the rise in support for the Tories here in Ceredigion
I would never for may because she was a remainer and her record as home secretary.
Don't assume leave/ukip = tory voter 2017 because I'm not one.
I am the same as you and will not be voting for May. But 100% I could never vote for Corbyn. If in a marginal seat I would be considering voting Tory so as not to waste my leave vote, and I can imagine any Kippers who read the odd headline about Corbyn's poll surge might just hold their nose and vote Tory just this once.
@George_Osborne: Diane Abbott has pulled out of @EveningStandard hustings. It's not like someone who wants to be Home Sec has much to talk about these days..
I despise her, but I do feel sorry for now. This is public humiliation of biblical proportions
And yet there's always the remote but not impossible chance she could have the last laugh come Friday....
Can I just post my thoughts on shy Tories. I have always voted Tory but the thing I find really really offensive is the left`s attitude to people like me. An example was in the last thread. I have all my life paid tax, done charity work and when I had a business helped our least wealthy clients. This election feels nasty if you dare to mention you are a Tory or pass an opinion you get shouted down. My Facebook feed is dominated by 2 posters who constantly post things from The Canary, between their 500 friends no one likes, shares or comments on it . The lack of posters; why would you after seeing examples of vandalising . I did notice this morning a Tory Councillor who always has a poster didn`t and I don`t think its because she has turned to the Labour Party. If I was faced on the door step or the phone with a Labour canvasser of course I would say I was Labour I don`t want the hassle.I do wonder how many people like me are out there. suppose we shall see on Thursday.
Absoultely. Systematic defacing of Tory placards etc all around my area including in peoples gardens. Very deliberate and very intimidatory. A kinder gentler politics.
The cause is all. Any means justifies the ends. The classic Trot approach, just a small step to Stalinist.
He misses Edinburgh West, where the LibDems were well in the lead on first preferences, including an astonishing 50% of the first preferences in Almond ward.
He's calling Edinburgh West very tight - Lib Dem 29, SNP 31
FOUR leaflets from Lib Dems today - they say its a two horse race but then in the local paper they say they are alarmed at the rise in support for the Tories here in Ceredigion
Something like this would surely, in normal circumstances, spell the death knell of any serious PM candidate, or even a party leader.
So how does Corbyn continue to defy gravity?
That he offers some kind of hope and social security whereas the Tory effort focuses on the message that 1) having a society worthy of the name is tantamount to giving into Daesh, 2) what's good for people is getting a bloody good thrashing by people who speak with posh accents and were born highly competent, and 3) asking what's wrong with the City of London, inheritance of fortunes, etc., means you're stupid - that has something to do with it.
Have you read Peter Pan at all? You should, because you're in it
A straw in the wind to demonstrate how the respective Red and Blue campaign teams think it is going.
As a Tory Activist in a safe seat (SW Beds) my efforts are directed to where they will be of most use. In 2015 I was sent to Milton Keynes South and then later, as the campaign went on, to Bedford.
In 2017 it has been entirely Luton South (I was there yesterday evening delivering in the rain!). All local Blue 'mutual aid' is going there from the other neighbouring safe seats (i.e Hitchin & Harpenden).
Yesterday I received an e-mail from the Labour party (I'm a £3 quidder) asking for my help in ..... Luton South.
If Labour had any faith in the surge the polls apparently point to, then it would be directing resources to Bedford (barely a 1,000 majority) or Milton Keynes South (8k) if they were confident that Bedford was in the bag.
Why is Labour playing defensive on a seat they hold by 5k+ if we really are in NOM territory? I suspect the answer is that they know the likes of YOUGOV and Survation have got it wrong..
A straw in the wind, no more.
You mention Milton Keynes South which I know well. The MP (Iain Stewart) has been skipping hustings and been seen campaigning in Coventry. Although Labour have been having some fun with this, the attitude is that this seat (which should have been a marginal last time but the Tories won by 9k) is not worth worrying about. The only significant thing he's done for a while is back Liam Fox's leadership campaign so not necessarily endearing himself to swing voters. However the Labour candidate (Hannah O'Neill) might be worth keeping an eye on - my guess is that she will keep standing, and that she will be well-placed when the political pendulum swings back as it eventually will.
I know you are right about Iain Stewart campaigning in Coventry. Tells you all you need to know about how things have changed since election 2015 and the direction of travel is not favourable to Labour.
Will keep any eye out for Hannah and wish her well.
I think she will have a long wait for MK South to swing back though. My understanding was that the new developments in MK tended to be quite unfavourable to Labour (places like Monkston and Oakgrove?). Quite expensive and bringing in a slightly older demographic? Also that the Indian vote was swinging Blue as affluence increased.
Always surprising to me how receptive English seats to MK South are to having a Scottish MP. Not an issue at all. Can you imagine the fuss Malcolm would make having an English candidate. Reflects well on the supposedly 'little England' southern Blue imho.
I see Sadiq Khan proving what a slippery individual he is. Perhaps he does have designs on the Labour leadership after all.
I see Diane Abbott has been pulled from the Evening Standard hustings tonight. If this was a conservative candidate, it would be the BBC's no 1 headline.
It has nothing to do with discounting the Labour vote, it's about samples having too many enthusiastic political anoraks. Yes, they ask the question about turnout like all the others. They know however that because their sample is unrepresentative that they have far too many people of certain demographics who say they will turn out than actually do.
ICM use the modelling to compare self-reporting to how in real elections people in these demographic groups behave. In theory this should weight down the over-enthused.
Why you think this is worse than a polling company that does **** all to try and correct their sample I don't understand.
That's a hypothesis, and a different one from the one you gave just a moment ago that Labour supporters turn out differentially.
I never said that. Yes we are talking about a turnout model, but you need to ask yourself why ICM/Comres aren't confident in their sample enough to require them to model it than rely on self-report.
It is possible, but bear in mind most polling companies weight on how people said they voted in the past. I repeat ICM and Comres are not necessarily wrong with their adjustment but they are reacting to a polling problem in the 2015 election that presumably didn't exist to the same extent before and may not exist now. The political landscape was very particular in 2015 with the rise of UKIP.
If unrepresentative samples was the problem in 2015 as both the inquiry and research since has found then I don't know why it would have been resolved now based on the limited changes to online panels that have occurred. In fact the research done implies it has happened before such as the overstatement of the Cleggasm in 2010.
Sure ICM and Comres might get it wrong in the end, but there are reasons to believe they are at least tackling the problem that has been identified.
@George_Osborne: Diane Abbott has pulled out of @EveningStandard hustings. It's not like someone who wants to be Home Sec has much to talk about these days..
I despise her, but I do feel sorry for now. This is public humiliation of biblical proportions
And yet there's always the remote but not impossible chance she could have the last laugh come Friday....
Oh my don't say that!
She is probably one of the top 5 well known politicians in the country now I would say. Everyone's talking about her!
Can I just post my thoughts on shy Tories. I have always voted Tory but the thing I find really really offensive is the left`s attitude to people like me. An example was in the last thread. I have all my life paid tax, done charity work and when I had a business helped our least wealthy clients. This election feels nasty if you dare to mention you are a Tory or pass an opinion you get shouted down. My Facebook feed is dominated by 2 posters who constantly post things from The Canary, between their 500 friends no one likes, shares or comments on it . The lack of posters; why would you after seeing examples of vandalising . I did notice this morning a Tory Councillor who always has a poster didn`t and I don`t think its because she has turned to the Labour Party. If I was faced on the door step or the phone with a Labour canvasser of course I would say I was Labour I don`t want the hassle.I do wonder how many people like me are out there. suppose we shall see on Thursday.
Entirely get where your coming from. Exactly same here - have to hide it even more so working in local government
As a lefty myself it does grate when I see other people that I broadly agree with nitpicking at people and telling them they're unacceptable human beings for having what is essentially a different frame-of-reference. For example, some bloke who likes looking at page 3 is part of the "oppressive patriarchy," when in fact liking looking at tits is just what happens to heterosexual males.
Why even engage with someone who tells you you're the antichrist for something that's innate?
Beth Rigby on Sky continuing her bizarre habit of stating her slant on the campaign as news fact and then extrapolating from that. Sky have some real duds, thats why I watch it, for the fun.
@George_Osborne: Diane Abbott has pulled out of @EveningStandard hustings. It's not like someone who wants to be Home Sec has much to talk about these days..
I despise her, but I do feel sorry for now. This is public humiliation of biblical proportions
And yet there's always the remote but not impossible chance she could have the last laugh come Friday....
FOUR leaflets from Lib Dems today - they say its a two horse race but then in the local paper they say they are alarmed at the rise in support for the Tories here in Ceredigion
Risky tactic, Ceredigion Tories might vote Tory this time round !
I would never for may because she was a remainer and her record as home secretary.
Don't assume leave/ukip = tory voter 2017 because I'm not one.
I am the same as you and will not be voting for May. But 100% I could never vote for Corbyn. If in a marginal seat I would be considering voting Tory so as not to waste my leave vote, and I can imagine any Kippers who read the odd headline about Corbyn's poll surge might just hold their nose and vote Tory just this once.
I was also UKIP/Leave. I will vote Tory because I do not trust anyone else to deliver any form of Brexit. If we have either a hung Parliament or a Corbyn victory then they will do their damndest to stop Brexit. They will fail given that both Labour and the Tories promised Brexit but it will be a bloodbath as far as the economy and the country is concerned.
If you voted Leave and still want it then there is absolutely no alternative to May at this election.
The security problem for Theresa May is apparent but how many voters will really think the choice is now to go with Corbyn and Abbott. The Abbott story is not helping labour
Let's put "turnout modelling" into quotes. They have to call it something respectable. Bear in mind they have already done the turnout squeeze on the entire sample. This would suggest Labour voters are less likely to turnout after saying they will across all demographics than supporters of other parties. It's possible, but it is just as likely (more likely IMO) that there is a problem with sampling or weighting that affects all polling companies.
ICM’s view, which has been so long-held it pre-dates even my own 22 years in situ, is that polls intrinsically inflate Labour’s share—there’s more evidence of this than a stick can be shaken at—and finding ways to mitigate that problem is the responsibility of the polling agency. So, to summarise, YouGov are softer on turnout than ICM and have a 5-point Tory lead. ICM is probably the hardest polling firm on turnout and we have a 14-point Tory lead.
...
But the raw data we collect is, actually, the core problem. After 2015, the British Polling Council Inquiry identified “unrepresentative samples” as the cause of the polling miss, and all us pollsters have tried to address this problem in different ways. The difficulty is that nobody really understands why the samples were unrepresentative, and if the problem is too complex to understand, you can bet the solution might be directed towards the wrong root cause.
Basically they discount the Labour share of the vote because it's always too high, for reasons they don't understand.
I'm very concerned about the entire sampling problem that all pollsters have been having and seem to be continuing to have. One short check I do on every poll table is to look at the difference between unweighted and weighted samples for the EU referendum. In virtually every case, the pollsters have obtained a raw sample where the number of those who voted Remain outweighs the number who voted Leave; in many cases by a great amount. (A second check is on the Lib Dem unweighted to weighted number - they always find more unweighted than they should after weighting). This doesn't mean that the "true" picture is of a country where people now prefer Remain (and have adjusted their own memories) and with a latent extra Lib Dem vote - it means that the sampling is invariably picking up a distorted sample in that direction. Weighting can only deal with it if those who are consistently missed by the sampling act similarly to those that are picked up by the sampling. 2015 told us that they don't. Everything else is trying to adjust for an unknown and inconsistent error.
Can I just post my thoughts on shy Tories. I have always voted Tory but the thing I find really really offensive is the left`s attitude to people like me. An example was in the last thread. I have all my life paid tax, done charity work and when I had a business helped our least wealthy clients. This election feels nasty if you dare to mention you are a Tory or pass an opinion you get shouted down. My Facebook feed is dominated by 2 posters who constantly post things from The Canary, between their 500 friends no one likes, shares or comments on it . The lack of posters; why would you after seeing examples of vandalising . I did notice this morning a Tory Councillor who always has a poster didn`t and I don`t think its because she has turned to the Labour Party. If I was faced on the door step or the phone with a Labour canvasser of course I would say I was Labour I don`t want the hassle.I do wonder how many people like me are out there. suppose we shall see on Thursday.
Entirely get where your coming from. Exactly same here - have to hide it even more so working in local government
Same here. It's like Brexit all over again: I told no one I voted for it other than my best friend - and only because he voted for it himself - and my girlfriend. She was actually intimidated at work (works in the public sector) by people throwing their Remain views around and assuming everyone thought the same as them, and it's happened again during this election, this time assuming everyone is voting Labour and all Tories are "scum".
Can I just post my thoughts on shy Tories. I have always voted Tory but the thing I find really really offensive is the left`s attitude to people like me. An example was in the last thread. I have all my life paid tax, done charity work and when I had a business helped our least wealthy clients. This election feels nasty if you dare to mention you are a Tory or pass an opinion you get shouted down. My Facebook feed is dominated by 2 posters who constantly post things from The Canary, between their 500 friends no one likes, shares or comments on it . The lack of posters; why would you after seeing examples of vandalising . I did notice this morning a Tory Councillor who always has a poster didn`t and I don`t think its because she has turned to the Labour Party. If I was faced on the door step or the phone with a Labour canvasser of course I would say I was Labour I don`t want the hassle.I do wonder how many people like me are out there. suppose we shall see on Thursday.
Entirely get where your coming from. Exactly same here - have to hide it even more so working in local government
As a lefty myself it does grate when I see other people that I broadly agree with nitpicking at people and telling them they're unacceptable human beings for having what is essentially a different frame-of-reference. For example, some bloke who likes looking at page 3 is part of the "oppressive patriarchy," when in fact liking looking at tits is just what happens to heterosexual males.
Why even engage with someone who tells you you're the antichrist for something that's innate?
Yes I agree. It's particularly weird when it turns out to be an opinion they only recently acquired...
***** BETTING POST ***** I suspect there's some value to be had in that range of say 20th - 60th target seats which just 4 short weeks the Tories appeared likely to capture, bur a number of which now look destined to remain in Labour's hands ..... in some cases the bookies appear to have been somewhat slow in adjusting their odds. A case in point is Dewsbury in West Yorkshire, where Labour secured a majority of just 1,451 at the 2015 GE when UKIP who aren't standing this time received 6649 votes. There's a huge divergence in the betting odds where Bet365 offers 3/1 against Labour holding the seat compared with Betfair Sportsbook whose 13/8 therefore represents less than half the profit return. Interestingly Baxter rates this as a genuine toss-up seat with the Tories forecast to win 46.7% of the vote, compared with Labour's 46.6%. In other words an evens money chance either way, against which odds of 3/1 against Labour looks distinctly appealing, but as ever DYOR.
I would never for may because she was a remainer and her record as home secretary.
Don't assume leave/ukip = tory voter 2017 because I'm not one.
I am the same as you and will not be voting for May. But 100% I could never vote for Corbyn. If in a marginal seat I would be considering voting Tory so as not to waste my leave vote, and I can imagine any Kippers who read the odd headline about Corbyn's poll surge might just hold their nose and vote Tory just this once.
I was also UKIP/Leave. I will vote Tory because I do not trust anyone else to deliver any form of Brexit. If we have either a hung Parliament or a Corbyn victory then they will do their damndest to stop Brexit. They will fail given that both Labour and the Tories promised Brexit but it will be a bloodbath as far as the economy and the country is concerned. If you voted Leave and still want it then there is absolutely no alternative to May at this election.
Can I just post my thoughts on shy Tories. I have always voted Tory but the thing I find really really offensive is the left`s attitude to people like me. An example was in the last thread. I have all my life paid tax, done charity work and when I had a business helped our least wealthy clients. This election feels nasty if you dare to mention you are a Tory or pass an opinion you get shouted down. My Facebook feed is dominated by 2 posters who constantly post things from The Canary, between their 500 friends no one likes, shares or comments on it . The lack of posters; why would you after seeing examples of vandalising . I did notice this morning a Tory Councillor who always has a poster didn`t and I don`t think its because she has turned to the Labour Party. If I was faced on the door step or the phone with a Labour canvasser of course I would say I was Labour I don`t want the hassle.I do wonder how many people like me are out there. suppose we shall see on Thursday.
Absoultely. Systematic defacing of Tory placards etc all around my area including in peoples gardens. Very deliberate and very intimidatory. A kinder gentler politics.
The cause is all. Any means justifies the ends. The classic Trot approach, just a small step to Stalinist.
I feel the step from defacing placards to mass murder of millions is rather large myself.
Can I just post my thoughts on shy Tories. I have always voted Tory but the thing I find really really offensive is the left`s attitude to people like me. An example was in the last thread. I have all my life paid tax, done charity work and when I had a business helped our least wealthy clients. This election feels nasty if you dare to mention you are a Tory or pass an opinion you get shouted down. My Facebook feed is dominated by 2 posters who constantly post things from The Canary, between their 500 friends no one likes, shares or comments on it . The lack of posters; why would you after seeing examples of vandalising . I did notice this morning a Tory Councillor who always has a poster didn`t and I don`t think its because she has turned to the Labour Party. If I was faced on the door step or the phone with a Labour canvasser of course I would say I was Labour I don`t want the hassle.I do wonder how many people like me are out there. suppose we shall see on Thursday.
Absoultely. Systematic defacing of Tory placards etc all around my area including in peoples gardens. Very deliberate and very intimidatory. A kinder gentler politics.
The cause is all. Any means justifies the ends. The classic Trot approach, just a small step to Stalinist.
Anti-Tory graffiti on a vacant shop in my area. Text large and carefully written. Momentum?
Nigel Marriott Forecast Do your own research but remember in last month's locals on 1st preference the largest party was Aberdeen: SNP SNP Hold North Con Gain South Aberdeenshire: SCon South Con Gain WA&K Con Gain Angus: SCon Con Gain Argyll: SNP SNP Hold Clackmannan: SNP SNP Hold Dumfries and Galloway: SCon Con Hold Dundee: SNP SNP Hold East Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold East Dunbartionshire: SNP SNP Hold East Lothian: SLAB SNP Hold East Renfrewhshire: SCon Lab Gain Edinburgh: SCon: East/SW: SNP Hold North Lab Gain South Lab Hold Falkirk: SNP SNP Hold Fife: SNP SNP Hold Glasgow: SNP SNP Hold Highland, Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland: Indep LD Hold Inverclyde: SNP SNP Hold Midlothian: SNP SNP Hold Moray: SCon Con Gain North Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold North Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold Perthshire: SCon SNP Hold Renfrewshire: SNP Paisley SNP Hold East Lab Gain Scottish Borders: SCon Con Gain South Ayrshire: SCon SNP Hold South Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold Stirling: SCon SNP Hold West Dunbartonshire: SNP SNP Hold West Lothian: SNP SNP Hold
He misses Edinburgh West, where the LibDems were well in the lead on first preferences, including an astonishing 50% of the first preferences in Almond ward.
He's calling Edinburgh West very tight - Lib Dem 29, SNP 31
But I thought the point about this analysis was that it was based around last month's locals?
Three wards make up over 90% of the voters in Edinburgh West: Almond, Drum Brae/Gyle and Costorphine/Murrayfield. The first pref votes in these three were
Almond: LibDem 7,217 SNP 3,211
Drum Brae/Gyle: LibDem 3,176 SNP 2,541
Costorphine/Murrayfield: LibDem 3,502 SNP 2,474
Put together, the LibDems got 13,895 votes against 8,226 for the SNP.
And the LDs won the Holyrood seat on a big swing to them last year.
I'm going for LD gain.
I had a look at one seat I know quite well - Oxford West and Abingdon. There's been a massive vote squeeze/tactical vote campaign going on there, and it appears to have been working - yet he's got Labour and Lib Dems almost dead level. (27% vs 26%) That's simply not going to happen.
***** BETTING POST ***** I suspect there's some value to be had in that range of say 20th - 60th target seats which just 4 short weeks the Tories appeared likely to capture, bur a number of which now look destined to remain in Labour's hands ..... in some cases the bookies appear to have been somewhat slow in adjusting their odds. A case in point is Dewsbury in West Yorkshire, where Labour secured a majority of just 1,451 at the 2015 GE when UKIP who aren't standing this time received 6649 votes. There's a huge divergence in the betting odds where Bet365 offers 3/1 against Labour holding the seat compared with Betfair Sportsbook whose 13/8 therefore represents less than half the profit return. Interestingly Baxter rates this as a genuine toss-up seat with the Tories forecast to win 46.7% of the vote, compared with Labour's 46.6%. In other words an evens money chance either way, against which odds of 3/1 against Labour looks distinctly appealing, but as ever DYOR.
'Brave', personally I think Workington for the Tories is decent at 5-4. It follows on from @notme Cumbria reports.
Jeremy Corbyn is currently doing a Q&A on 'Unilad' to try and excite the youth vote. Most common comment is 'I like you but Diane Abbott...' In my office today I've heard 3 separate conversations about Diane Abbott today and I barely ever leave my desk! I think she might have an effect on voters even greater than police cuts, terror attacks or dementia taxes. Has there ever been a front bench politician that is such a turn off for voters of all hues?
I do wonder about the shy Tory vote in this one. Especially amongst WWC former labour and UKIP. My Facebook feed is much more militant this time, from people who have always been just loyal labour but are now insisting no other vote is valid, and a bizarre upgrading of the more strident to hysterical levels
I was looking at IndyRef 2014 - 84.59 % turnout. in total.
Reported turnout from 18-24s? 54 %
So what's that, scaled to the 66 % turnout of a GE? 42 % - which is bang on the mark for estimates of youth turnout in that election.
I wonder if this relationship holds up for other elections?
I would caution caution with that figure. The 18-24 band was very weird in the IndyRef due to the large number of non-Scottish students who would have been eligible to vote.
There is a strict linear trend between age and Yes vote % but the 18-24% has a big blip towards No.
Both this blip and the vastly lower turnout percentage than the surrounding 16-17 band & 25-35 band would be explained by non-Scottish students either choosing not to vote or breaking very heavily towards No.
That is pretty unfair of you. The intelligence services have a very difficulty job to do. They have to get it right 100% of the time whereas the terrorists need only get lucky once, as someone once said.
We don't know how many plots have been foiled. Nor do we know how many other people were higher on the priority list. It is a very difficult judgment call to assess who should be looked at more closely, especially in the absence of any evidence. Having a vehicle and a knife in your possession is hardly evidence.
These people do an incredibly hard job and they deserve our support not brickbats by people seeking to make cheap political points and who support a party led by a man who has never supported the intelligence and security services, who has sought out the very terrorists these people are trying to protect us from and who is on record saying that we should not criticize those expressing pro-IS views or doing anything about people returning from places like Syria.
I'm sure that the security services will be looking at what happened here and seeking to learn lessons. But you should be ashamed of attacking people who are doing the very best to protect all of us.
One small point: this person was on the Italian watchlist.
One further obvious point: all three of these terrorists were not born in Britain. Why did we let them into Britain? They were not badly needed research scientists. That too raises questions for Mrs May. But it also raises questions for Mr Corbyn who wants no limits on immigration and apparently wants to let even more low-skilled people from outside the EU into the country.
Comments
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/872068435219546112
TfL used to publish the stats but no longer seems to do so, probably because they are so embarrassing.
If car journeys fall, bus and bike journeys rise, yet traffic slows down, then either the latter cause congestion, or something else does. Maybe there are more jaywalkers or maybe traffic management schemes are to blame.
It COULD potentially be like the mass LD->Lab migration in 2015. Everyone thought marginal Tory-Lab seats with huge LD votes to squeeze would be slam-dunk Labour gains (thinking of Warrington South for instance).....in reality, although Labour gained huge numbers of LD votes, it was mostly in safe Labour seats, while the LD votes in marginals split more evenly between Labour and the Tories.
"ICM has constructed a turnout probability matrix based on an interlocking
combination of age and social grade. Turnout estimates from various sources,
most notably but not limited to the British Election studies were factored into the
matrix in order provide a best estimate for each demographic subgroup, modelled
to population incidence and real turnout levels from the 2015 General Election. "
They adjust the self-report by the efficiency of that demographic's turnout in 2015, which is not the same as simply saying that turnout will be the same.
Reported turnout from 18-24s? 54 %
So what's that, scaled to the 66 % turnout of a GE? 42 % - which is bang on the mark for estimates of youth turnout in that election.
I wonder if this relationship holds up for other elections?
Insofar as any of these slogans mean anything, that one seems particularly vacuous. One last chance for what?
The old pendulum is swinging against the Tories though, and sure as night follows day it'll eventually end up with them out of power eventually. Certainly not yet though.
Besides, if the FTPA is repealed, we don't even know what year the election will be, never mind the result.
The Conservative machine is ruthlessly effective.
EAST MIDLANDS
South Holland & The Deepings 81.4%
Boston & Skegness 77.6%
Daventry 74.0%
Northamptonshire South 73.6%
Louth & Horncastle 72.6%
Sleaford & North Hykeham 71.9%
Wellingborough 71.6%
Rutland & Melton 71.5%
Leicestershire South 70.6%
Grantham & Stamford 70.3%
Charnwood 70.3%
Newark 69.1%
Gainsborough 68.4%
Kettering 67.9%
Harborough 67.1%
Derbyshire South 67.1%
Leicestershire North West 66.4%
Derbyshire Mid 65.8%
Derbyshire Dales 64.0%
Rushcliffe 62.2%
Loughborough 60.5%
Bosworth 60.2%
Amber Valley 59.9%
Northampton South 59.9%
Sherwood 59.6%
Erewash 58.8%
Northampton North 58.5%
Corby 56.5%
High Peak 56.4%
Broxtowe 55.8%
Lincoln 54.8%
Mansfield 53.3%
Derbyshire North East 52.6%
Derby North 51.3%
Gedling 50.5%
Bassetlaw 46.6%
Bolsover 45.4%
NORTHEAST
Hexham 62.6%
Stockton South 57.3%
Berwick-Upon-Tweed 52.2%
Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East 52.2%
Bishop Auckland 50.3%
Hartlepool 48.9%
Darlington 48.3%
Stockton North 47.1%
Sedgefield 46.1%
Tynemouth 45.0%
NORTHWEST
Penrith & The Border 71.8%
Tatton 69.4%
Congleton 66.9%
Wyre & Preston North 66.4%
Macclesfield 64.7%
Ribble Valley 64.4%
Eddisbury 63.2%
Fylde 61.9%
Altrincham & Sale West 61.0%
Rossendale & Darwen 60.6%
South Ribble 60.5%
Crewe & Nantwich 59.5%
Pendle 59.4%
Blackpool North & Cleveleys 59.2%
Morecambe & Lunesdale 57.9%
Carlisle 56.7%
Bolton West 55.9%
Bury North 54.3%
Hazel Grove 53.6%
Hyndburn 53.2%
Weaver Vale 52.9%
Barrow & Furness 52.2%
Warrington South 52.0%
Bolton North East 51.6%
Cheadle 51.4%
Copeland 51.3%
Heywood & Middleton 51.3%
Chester, City Of 51.2%
Blackpool South 51.1%
Wirral West 50.8%
Chorley 49.9%
Workington 49.7%
Lancaster & Fleetwood 49.0%
Worsley & Eccles South 48.4%
Bury South 48.0%
Stalybridge & Hyde 47.5%
Ellesmere Port & Neston 46.3%
Wirral South 46.1%
Warrington North 45.3%
Oldham East & Saddleworth 45.1%
YORKSHIRE AND HUMBER
Skipton & Ripon 69.5%
Brigg & Goole 68.5%
Yorkshire East 68.5%
Haltemprice & Howden 68.1%
Thirsk & Malton 67.5%
Richmond (Yorks) 66.6%
Selby & Ainsty 66.5%
Cleethorpes 65.2%
Beverley & Holderness 64.8%
Harrogate & Knaresborough 63.4%
Scarborough & Whitby 60.3%
Elmet & Rothwell 59.5%
York Outer 58.9%
Shipley 58.9%
Keighley 55.8%
Pudsey 55.6%
Morley & Outwood 55.4%
Calder Valley 54.7%
Colne Valley 54.5%
Wakefield 52.5%
Halifax 51.9%
Dewsbury 51.5%
Rother Valley 51.4%
Great Grimsby 51.3%
Penistone & Stocksbridge 50.6%
Bradford South 50.4%
Scunthorpe 50.3%
Batley & Spen 49.2%
Don Valley 48.7%
https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-2017-general-election-forecast-3-a-description-of-my-final-model/
You may well be right on the LD gain - but his model does not appear to factor in the locals.
You would think the PM should personally stand at the border and check every individual coming back from abroad. The police already have the powers to detain these people and I'm sure some very searching questions will be asked at the appropriate time.
I'm betting that the new problem they have is over-estimating Labour's share.
WillS.
If Brexit leads to a slump, May stubbornly persists until the end, with no better candidate, the Tories resort to infighting, and Labour pick a charismatic centrist leader, then Labour will win.
Something like this would surely, in normal circumstances, spell the death knell of any serious PM candidate, or even a party leader.
So how does Corbyn continue to defy gravity?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rochdale_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
We don't know how many plots have been foiled. Nor do we know how many other people were higher on the priority list. It is a very difficult judgment call to assess who should be looked at more closely, especially in the absence of any evidence. Having a vehicle and a knife in your possession is hardly evidence.
These people do an incredibly hard job and they deserve our support not brickbats by people seeking to make cheap political points and who support a party led by a man who has never supported the intelligence and security services, who has sought out the very terrorists these people are trying to protect us from and who is on record saying that we should not criticize those expressing pro-IS views or doing anything about people returning from places like Syria.
I'm sure that the security services will be looking at what happened here and seeking to learn lessons. But you should be ashamed of attacking people who are doing the very best to protect all of us.
One small point: this person was on the Italian watchlist.
One further obvious point: all three of these terrorists were not born in Britain. Why did we let them into Britain? They were not badly needed research scientists. That too raises questions for Mrs May. But it also raises questions for Mr Corbyn who wants no limits on immigration and apparently wants to let even more low-skilled people from outside the EU into the country.
Staffordshire South 76.1%
Worcestershire Mid 74.7%
Aldridge-Brownhills 71.7%
Meriden 71.7%
Stone 70.9%
Stratford-On-Avon 70.9%
Lichfield 70.9%
Worcestershire West 70.4%
Herefordshire North 69.6%
Kenilworth & Southam 69.6%
Bromsgrove 69.5%
Hereford & Herefordshire South 69.4%
Sutton Coldfield 69.4%
Ludlow 69.2%
Shropshire North 69.1%
Tamworth 68.5%
Burton 67.5%
Wrekin, The 66.5%
Staffordshire Moorlands 65.8%
Redditch 63.3%
Rugby 63.0%
Stourbridge 62.9%
Dudley South 62.7%
Cannock Chase 61.6%
Wyre Forest 61.4%
Stafford 61.3%
Solihull 60.8%
Shrewsbury & Atcham 60.0%
Nuneaton 59.9%
Halesowen & Rowley Regis 59.8%
Warwickshire North 59.7%
Worcester 58.1%
Telford 57.6%
Warwick & Leamington 56.2%
Walsall North 55.8%
Dudley North 54.8%
Stoke-On-Trent South 53.9%
Newcastle-Under-Lyme 53.8%
Birmingham Northfield 52.4%
Stoke-On-Trent North 52.1%
Wolverhampton South West 51.9%
West Bromwich West 49.1%
Wolverhampton North East 49.1%
Walsall South 48.5%
Birmingham Edgbaston 48.4%
Birmingham Erdington 48.2%
Coventry South 48.0%
Coventry North West 46.7%
West Bromwich East 46.1%
Stoke-On-Trent Central 45.2%
It was always thought amongst the advertisers that he was ridiculously over promoted yet he's now credited with getting Cameron elected.... making the Tory party user friendly........persuading the country to vote Brexit .....getting him and Osborne fired...... and causing TM's poll numbers to tank..........
I was going to say he gives advertising a bad name but maybe he's just moved it to a new level.
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/872075714849378304
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/872075421323587584
It's not as though we weren't warned.
Would love to hear some local intel (not from Rochdale Pioneers I hasten to add!) and would like to know if the abuse scandal is something that will lead to unusual voting, or was this already the case in 2015?
Overall turnout - 66
18 - 24 - 43
ratio 0.65
2014
Overall turnout - 84.5
18 - 24 - 54
ratio 0.64
2010
Overall turnout - 65
18 - 24 - 44
ratio 0.68
2005
Overall turnout - 61
18 - 24 - 37
ratio 0.61
.... ish
I vote ukip in 2015.
I would never for may because she was a remainer and her record as home secretary.
Don't assume leave/ukip = tory voter 2017 because I'm not one.
But therefore it's surely too early to be assigning blame to politicians?
- He hasn't identified any specific areas where polling could be questionable (which serious analysts of the UK polls have done). If he had done so, he could have asked serious questions on what the actual youth turnout could be in comparison to the self-reported likelihood of turnout. Or about the questions on sampling, weighting, and huge swings of opinion throughout the campaign.
- He hasn't looked at other analysts records (for example, Number Crunching Politics (run by Matt Singh) not only got the last election spot on when the polls were well off, he did so in advance and with huge amounts of evidence showing that no fewer than three reliable ways of modelling the result other than the headline polls all pointed to a massive polling error in the conservatives favour: he not only identified that there was going to be an error, he identified the direction and the magnitude. Why hasn't Silver noted that and looked into that?
- He has come up with a "rule" out of nowhere (that polling error is always in the opposite direction of conventional wisdom), ignored the fact that said "rule", when applied to UK elections, has overwhelmingly been far more wrong than right, and assumed that his new rule will apply this time because - well, no "because" is given.
- The variant rule of "Tories are overstated when they're well in the lead" relies on data from events far in the past under different polling systems and, without any serious attempt to explain the mechanism by which this should be true, is more astrology than science. It's the sort of thing Silver has (rightly) condemned pundits for in the past.
Meanwhile, Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics pulled off the electoral analysis of the century to date last time around by successfully predicting the polling disaster in 2015. Not by luck or by gut feel, but by ten pages of researched and comprehensive analysis showing that the polls were totally divorced from the fundamentals at the time (based on leadership ratings PLUS local election results PLUS historic sources of polling error).
As at two weeks ago, his analysis (which pointed to a 7-10 point Tory lead in 2015 in defiance of the dead-level polling score) was pointing to a "mid-teens" Conservative lead.
Looking at the basis of the model, May's falling leadership ratings will detract from that and cause more fuzziness - I'd guess his model would now be pointing to a Conservative win of 9-14 points, which is quite coherent with the ICM/ComRes/TNS cluster and greater than the average of the polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_number_of_police_officers
More like
LD 40
SNP 35
:-)
Will keep any eye out for Hannah and wish her well.
I think she will have a long wait for MK South to swing back though. My understanding was that the new developments in MK tended to be quite unfavourable to Labour (places like Monkston and Oakgrove?). Quite expensive and bringing in a slightly older demographic? Also that the Indian vote was swinging Blue as affluence increased.
Always surprising to me how receptive English seats to MK South are to having a Scottish MP. Not an issue at all. Can you imagine the fuss Malcolm would make having an English candidate. Reflects well on the supposedly 'little England' southern Blue imho.
I see Diane Abbott has been pulled from the Evening Standard hustings tonight. If this was a conservative candidate, it would be the BBC's no 1 headline.
Sure ICM and Comres might get it wrong in the end, but there are reasons to believe they are at least tackling the problem that has been identified.
She is probably one of the top 5 well known politicians in the country now I would say. Everyone's talking about her!
Why even engage with someone who tells you you're the antichrist for something that's innate?
If you voted Leave and still want it then there is absolutely no alternative to May at this election.
One short check I do on every poll table is to look at the difference between unweighted and weighted samples for the EU referendum.
In virtually every case, the pollsters have obtained a raw sample where the number of those who voted Remain outweighs the number who voted Leave; in many cases by a great amount.
(A second check is on the Lib Dem unweighted to weighted number - they always find more unweighted than they should after weighting).
This doesn't mean that the "true" picture is of a country where people now prefer Remain (and have adjusted their own memories) and with a latent extra Lib Dem vote - it means that the sampling is invariably picking up a distorted sample in that direction. Weighting can only deal with it if those who are consistently missed by the sampling act similarly to those that are picked up by the sampling.
2015 told us that they don't.
Everything else is trying to adjust for an unknown and inconsistent error.
It's particularly weird when it turns out to be an opinion they only recently acquired...
***** BETTING POST *****
I suspect there's some value to be had in that range of say 20th - 60th target seats which just 4 short weeks the Tories appeared likely to capture, bur a number of which now look destined to remain in Labour's hands ..... in some cases the bookies appear to have been somewhat slow in adjusting their odds.
A case in point is Dewsbury in West Yorkshire, where Labour secured a majority of just 1,451 at the 2015 GE when UKIP who aren't standing this time received 6649 votes.
There's a huge divergence in the betting odds where Bet365 offers 3/1 against Labour holding the seat compared with Betfair Sportsbook whose 13/8 therefore represents less than half the profit return.
Interestingly Baxter rates this as a genuine toss-up seat with the Tories forecast to win 46.7% of the vote, compared with Labour's 46.6%. In other words an evens money chance either way, against which odds of 3/1 against Labour looks distinctly appealing, but as ever DYOR.
That's simply not going to happen.
https://twitter.com/PeterTatchell/status/872075957951242241
There is a strict linear trend between age and Yes vote % but the 18-24% has a big blip towards No.
Both this blip and the vastly lower turnout percentage than the surrounding 16-17 band & 25-35 band would be explained by non-Scottish students either choosing not to vote or breaking very heavily towards No.