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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling understatement of the Tories is MUCH less likely to ha
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling understatement of the Tories is MUCH less likely to happen when they’re clearly ahead
Nate Silver’s 538
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What if there's never been a Tory landslide on the cards, and it's all been artefact of pollsters experimenting with differential turnout adjustments?
Good news for May I guess, then at least she won't have blown a nailed on Tory supermajority by being godawful at politics.
Have we heard from Bunnco - our man on the spot - this election period?
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/871998549621444608
Incidentally, my projection of 104 matches our favourite JacobiteW and Martin Robbins.
And if he decides on a real number for a majority, possible Goodwin too!!
The national debt has gone up from £1trillion in 2011 to £1.73 trillion in 2017, this is in a time of supposed austerity.
Are we to assume that austerity has not worked and we should try something else, whoever is in power?
If you can make head or tails of the polling right now, you're a better man than me Gunga Din.
PB Tories: would we rather see Farron or Lucas lose their seat? I'm feeling conflicted here.
How can we know what might-have-beens would have become reality if a different path was followed?
Farron on the first the other hand is ineffectual and should stay where he is.
Otherwise we'll all be murdered in our beds.
Serious punters will be needing their brown trousers.
The Islamic heaven they are led to expect looks like a high-end brothel. Endless women. A river of wine.
Google Bernard Fayeur's The Islamic Hereafter for what they expect.
Each time we sleep with a houri we find her virgin. The penis of the Elected never softens. the erection is eternal; the sensation that you feel each time you make love is utterly delicious and out of this world and were you to experience it in this world you would faint. Each Muslim will marry seventy houris, besides the women he married on earth, and all will have appetising vaginas. - 16th century Islamic scholar Al-Suyuti
It's not exactly Holy Living and Holy Dying, is it?
If they focused on earthly cars, Ibiza, girls, and making money, I suspect they'd be in less of a hurry to blow themselves up to get into the great knocking shop in the sky.
https://twitter.com/IanMurrayMP/status/872050416229527552
Seriously Mark, your astroturfing is as pointless as this line of mine above. Why bother?
If we had 601 seats and Party A won 301 while the other won 300, A would have a majority of 1.
The deficit has been cut from 10% of GDP to 2.6% last year, without mass unemployment. It's been a long and painful grind, but a success in the end.
That 6 to 12 point lead is borne out in the projections posted on here.
On Sunday I thought Mrs May had played a blinder over the terrorist attacks. Since Monday, particularly with Steve Hilton's intervention the narrative has been wholly against the incumbent. Might this factor against the blue team come Thursday?
Another thought. Corbyn is an abomination? Could there be a raft of shy- Corbynites?
Damien Green struggling on Vine at the moment too? Not good when the magic money tree is wheeled out.
Hmmm?
Do your own research but remember in last month's locals on 1st preference the largest party was
Aberdeen: SNP SNP Hold North Con Gain South
Aberdeenshire: SCon South Con Gain WA&K Con Gain
Angus: SCon Con Gain
Argyll: SNP SNP Hold
Clackmannan: SNP SNP Hold
Dumfries and Galloway: SCon Con Hold
Dundee: SNP SNP Hold
East Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold
East Dunbartionshire: SNP SNP Hold
East Lothian: SLAB SNP Hold
East Renfrewhshire: SCon Lab Gain
Edinburgh: SCon: East/SW: SNP Hold North Lab Gain South Lab Hold
Falkirk: SNP SNP Hold
Fife: SNP SNP Hold
Glasgow: SNP SNP Hold
Highland, Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland: Indep LD Hold
Inverclyde: SNP SNP Hold
Midlothian: SNP SNP Hold
Moray: SCon Con Gain
North Ayrshire: SNP SNP Hold
North Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold
Perthshire: SCon SNP Hold
Renfrewshire: SNP Paisley SNP Hold East Lab Gain
Scottish Borders: SCon Con Gain
South Ayrshire: SCon SNP Hold
South Lanarkshire: SNP SNP Hold
Stirling: SCon SNP Hold
West Dunbartonshire: SNP SNP Hold
West Lothian: SNP SNP Hold
As has been mentioned, you could have MPs not taking their seats.
There was also the case the other year of a deferred election due to the death of a candidate which meant straight after the election that the majority was odd... but the eventual result was ultimately counted as a result of the General Election, just a "late score". If I recall correctly, however, the Tory MP (it was a safe seat) was quite annoyed as he'd rather fancied his chances of being Father of the House at some point, but it technically broke his continuous service record.
I am thinking 100 seat majority and 10 point lead.
I've watched much of it and been canvassing and delivering. Not a single person has mentioned it.
Not has a single person mentioned it on facebook, other than those who already insult me for being a Tory. Literally insult me. It is pretty repulsive.
Granted I doubt Labour would have met their target either.
What we don't know is how many UKIP intenders will get to the polling booth & find there isn't a candidate to vote for - and what they'll do then.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7iUYWMD77w
Hmm, except for the full employment, low inflation, lowest inequality for thirty years, reduction in child poverty, one of strongest growing economies in the west and a deficit of 2.6%.
There's also a red splodge in Sheffield where it is currently yellow, btw.
https://order-order.com/2017/06/06/corbyn-addressed-hundreds-of-al-muhajiroun-members-at-rally/
It's about inputs versus outputs.
Both the dementia tax and Labour's plans for those earning over 80k have not gone down well here.
But the Tories for Clegg have gone back to the blue meanies...
You need to point out to people that they can not have free everything provided by the government and everybody else will pay for it.
The 'everybody else' is you.
May's credibility has been trashed, and Corbyn's has risen like a Phoenix. So the public only take notice of events in isolation, punish the sitting government and PM, and ignore the massive inadequacies presented by the alternative?
Is this credible?
The British security service under May is useless
Welcome stevef - what generates headlines doesn't necessarily imply greater accuracy - and what might be the effect? Motivate Tories to get out & vote? Reassure Labour voters that they don't need to?
Compare Table 4 "THIS TABLE DOES NOT INCLUDE ADJUSTMENT FOR DON'T KNOW/REFUSERS" to Table 5 which is their adjustment for DK/Refusers.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/2017_guardian_poll9_2-4june.pdf
Terrorist police budget increased. That is what matters.
Two further problems for Labour: (1) plenty of professionals in the 40k+ salary bracket believe that they'll eventually be earning that, even if they never will be, and, (2) no-one really believes the 45p tax rate will end there.
Terrorist success up