Forget projections putting Labour within spitting distance of the Conservatives in the June 8 election. Privately, officials and candidates in the U.K.’s main opposition party are preparing to lose dozens of seats.
I don't understand how they can be even close. UKIP total still leaves them 2k short on the most optimistic model. Unless Skinner's done f-all for the last few years ?
This may be an indication that Tory canvass returns and targeting are not as robust and flawless as most of us think - they may not be reading things correctly. Or they could just be on a wind-up.
In my experience the Tories have the most difficulty in making sense of their canvass returns, probably because they get more *unhelpful* responses than canvassers for other parties. If the door just closes, or the verbal equivalent, they don't know what to put people down as. Insofar as I have had a glimpse inside Tory campaigns, istm that they focus on getting a target number of pledges, and then getting them to vote, and don't worry too much about how the opposing votes are falling. But I may be corrected by someone with inside knowledge......
Well that's ruined my Jo Swinson as next Lib Dem leader book.
Sounds like the Scottish Lib Dems are down to Orkney, and potentially Edi West & NE Fife if that is the case. Nicolson sounds confident anyway.
On a UK wide level Dunbartonshire East was always in my top ten on my models, so it is quite possible that this forbodes a truly dreadful result in England and Wales too.
A little over seven years ago the Lib Dems were leading in the polls.
Two years ago a plurality/majority of voters would have voted for a continuation of the coalition.
Just what has happened to the Lib Dems?
They seem to have a policy on Referendum that depends on the result?
Well that's ruined my Jo Swinson as next Lib Dem leader book.
Sounds like the Scottish Lib Dems are down to Orkney, and potentially Edi West & NE Fife if that is the case. Nicolson sounds confident anyway.
On a UK wide level Dunbartonshire East was always in my top ten on my models, so it is quite possible that this forbodes a truly dreadful result in England and Wales too.
A little over seven years ago the Lib Dems were leading in the polls.
Two years ago a plurality/majority of voters would have voted for a continuation of the coalition.
Just what has happened to the Lib Dems?
Clegg always had a hospital pass with the coalition, but Farron is turning out to be a modern day Clement Davies.
@George_Osborne: Diane Abbott has pulled out of @EveningStandard hustings. It's not like someone who wants to be Home Sec has much to talk about these days..
I despise her, but I do feel sorry for now. This is public humiliation of biblical proportions
I suspect she has enough self-awareness and intelligence to realise she isn't up to the job of being Home Secretary. There's no shame in that. Not many people are.
They thought it would be a wheeze and it is a serious business. You might be able to wing it opposite Michael Portillo on the telly but Shadow Home Secretary is a different kettle of onions. Perhaps she is not willing to put in the hours to master her brief.
"Nevertheless, Labour candidates said their leader is still a drag on their party’s fortunes. One said there’s every chance the party will lose 70 seats, on track to get as few as 160 seats."
This is one confusing election. I'd never even considered that sort of extreme.
Such a criticism would have force coming from someone willing to say how they would reduce the deficit. But if they want to increase it then what problem do they have with it? In short, this is a criticism best made by those who want a smaller deficit not by people wanting to borrow even more.
"Vote Corbyn for more of the thing I oppose." Hmmm.
Various economists argued for years that there were smarter ways of reducing the deficit. If one assumes that a different mix of cuts and tax rises, and a different pace, might have had less of an adverse impact on growth then the argument is perfectly logical. Whether it would have been achievable or not, who knows. It's certainly arguable.
For 2010 that might make sense, it's not what Corbyn and McDonnell are proposing for 2017 which is the mother of all splurges.
On Sunday, on this site somebody mentioned the LibDems using an Egyptian call Center, I was dismissive at the time as it did not seem logical, but I now see that Guido Fawlks is making the same allegation (without much evidence)
I am skeptical but intrigued, it does not seem like a sensible thing to do, because 1) it has a big risk of negative publicity 2) its relatively expensive for a party without much cash 3) Unless the callers are first language English seekers with a reasonable knowledge of UK politics it has the risk of being counter productive.
Does anybody know what is happening? at a push I can see the party paying for some privet poling to see how they are doing in a handful of seats, and using the lowest bidder not realizing that they are Egyptian based, but if this was the case how would the callers know who had called?
My daughter has had persistent calls from this number. It is counter productive and a bit weird. Hard to believe it is the LibDems. I'm stuck for an explanation, unless it is a dirty tricks operation to piss people off with the LibDems. The caller does no canvassing but mentions the LibDems and calls persistently.
Seems most odd, difficult to imagine it is a dirty tricks operation, because if it was found out it could/would massively backfire. Perhaps it is an attempt to be helpful by a well wishing but uniformed, millionaire possibly from outside the UK.
The spreads have moved a couple of seats in favour of the Tories over recent hours, with the average mid-spread price now being 360 seats, equivalent to a majority of 70 seats.
Mr. Andrew, indeed. It's a tricky one. I hope people don't mind me reposting the Labour losses, or gains, list (originally -70 was the worst case scenario, I added more at the request of others): -100 Adrianople [Malmesbury] -90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion] -80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
Forget projections putting Labour within spitting distance of the Conservatives in the June 8 election. Privately, officials and candidates in the U.K.’s main opposition party are preparing to lose dozens of seats.
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
@George_Osborne: Diane Abbott has pulled out of @EveningStandard hustings. It's not like someone who wants to be Home Sec has much to talk about these days..
I despise her, but I do feel sorry for now. This is public humiliation of biblical proportions
I suspect she has enough self-awareness and intelligence to realise she isn't up to the job of being Home Secretary. There's no shame in that. Not many people are.
We have to go back quite a few years to find someone who was up to that job.
Forget projections putting Labour within spitting distance of the Conservatives in the June 8 election. Privately, officials and candidates in the U.K.’s main opposition party are preparing to lose dozens of seats.
Corbyn has to be thrashed. It has to be done. If he stays on he could become PM in 2020, when the Tories will be very unpopular no doubt thanks to Brexit, recession, NHS crisis etc etc.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
Forget projections putting Labour within spitting distance of the Conservatives in the June 8 election. Privately, officials and candidates in the U.K.’s main opposition party are preparing to lose dozens of seats.
YouGov is forecasting Clive Lewis in Norwich South to get around 63% of the vote compared to 39% last time.
That might be right !
Lewis looks utterly nailed on to me.
The more interesting question is whether the Norwich and Lewis effect can trouble Chloe in N North.
That has way more pensioners doesn't it ?
It does and a bigger kipper breakfast, but Norwich itself has always been fertile labour territory. I've got 2 quid at 12s on Labour, Norwich swung TO Labour in the locals and there are some grotty suburbs in the seat as well as grey havens.
Forget projections putting Labour within spitting distance of the Conservatives in the June 8 election. Privately, officials and candidates in the U.K.’s main opposition party are preparing to lose dozens of seats.
Forget projections putting Labour within spitting distance of the Conservatives in the June 8 election. Privately, officials and candidates in the U.K.’s main opposition party are preparing to lose dozens of seats.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
Battersea or Putney?
There's also Kensington where the MP is a Leaver in a Remain area.
Such a criticism would have force coming from someone willing to say how they would reduce the deficit. But if they want to increase it then what problem do they have with it? In short, this is a criticism best made by those who want a smaller deficit not by people wanting to borrow even more.
"Vote Corbyn for more of the thing I oppose." Hmmm.
Various economists argued for years that there were smarter ways of reducing the deficit. If one assumes that a different mix of cuts and tax rises, and a different pace, might have had less of an adverse impact on growth then the argument is perfectly logical. Whether it would have been achievable or not, who knows. It's certainly arguable.
For 2010 that might make sense, it's not what Corbyn and McDonnell are proposing for 2017 which is the mother of all splurges.
I think this year we're (almost) having the debate we should have had in 2010 and 2015. The Tories low-key arguing to turn into a tax-haven to spite Europe and Labour loudly arguing for a more interventionist model to revive industries. We need some kind of fundamental restructuring of our role in the world economy or else it's just a slow decline.
It's funny how things turn and the Left is now seen as pro-debt. Karl Marx hated governmental debt, saw it as a roundabout way of boosting faltering profits by a sneaky redistribution of citizens' income to capital...
And at 2201 almost no Labour MP can truly know if they still have a seat!
JonathanPlaid calling most of the Labour MPs red tories just shows why Plaid are probably going to get stuffed outside the north west this year. Plaid set themselves up to be socialists red in tooth and claw, and Corbyn's Labour Party have just upped the spend&borrow&class war ante, and blown them away! I would hope that a big defeat would make Plaid develop more coherent, attractive and plausible policies, but I fear they would just take it as a signal that they need to up the socialist ante another couple of notches.
And at 2201 almost no Labour MP can truly know if they still have a seat!
JonathanPlaid calling most of the Labour MPs red tories just shows why Plaid are probably going to get stuffed outside the north west this year. Plaid set themselves up to be socialists red in tooth and claw, and Corbyn's Labour Party have just upped the spend&borrow&class war ante, and blown them away! I would hope that a big defeat would make Plaid develop more coherent, attractive and plausible policies, but I fear they would just take it as a signal that they need to up the socialist ante another couple of notches.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
YouGov is forecasting Clive Lewis in Norwich South to get around 63% of the vote compared to 39% last time.
That might be right !
Lewis looks utterly nailed on to me.
The more interesting question is whether the Norwich and Lewis effect can trouble Chloe in N North.
That has way more pensioners doesn't it ?
Norwich N is misnamed as only 30k of the 65k voters are actually in Norwich. The rest are in Broadland district.
But that half are very labour and the Green presence is disintegrating. It's a winnable seat against the tide. 12s is long but they are obviously odds against.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
YouGov's Battersea Labour Lean looking like coming off?
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
Labour take City of Westminster?
I've heard that chipping barnet will be under 5k majority for the tories and IDS wont get anywhere near 20k votes.
I don't understand how they can be even close. UKIP total still leaves them 2k short on the most optimistic model. Unless Skinner's done f-all for the last few years ?
This may be an indication that Tory canvass returns and targeting are not as robust and flawless as most of us think - they may not be reading things correctly. Or they could just be on a wind-up.
In my experience the Tories have the most difficulty in making sense of their canvass returns, probably because they get more *unhelpful* responses than canvassers for other parties. If the door just closes, or the verbal equivalent, they don't know what to put people down as. Insofar as I have had a glimpse inside Tory campaigns, istm that they focus on getting a target number of pledges, and then getting them to vote, and don't worry too much about how the opposing votes are falling. But I may be corrected by someone with inside knowledge......
An experienced Tory canvasser would put such doors down as "Against":
"C" - Conservative: "I'm definitely for you.", "You don't need to knock on my door!", "Good luck mate.", "How's it going elsewhere?"
"P" - Probable Conservative: "I usually vote Conservative, but I'm not very happy with your campaign.", "Yeah, I usually do and probably will."
"U" - Undecided: "I don't know.", "Haven't decided yet" - depending on what they say and how they say it, can be a forensically analytical floater or a non-voter
"W" - Waverer: "I think May has been awful but can't stand Corbyn.", "Worried about security, but also the NHS"
"S" - Socialist: "Always vote Labour!" "Wrong door mate.", "No thanks, we're Labour."
"A" - Against: "Secret ballot - none of your business", "Fuck off."
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
Battersea or Putney?
No. Far more incredible.
Boris?
Ian Duncan smith because the vote has collapsed but i didnt believe it.
Bang goes my hopes of Skinner becoming the father of the house…
Nah, no matter the result in Bolsover, Ken Clarke's going to be the father of the House.
With 47 years' service under his belt already, Clarke will be the most experienced FOTH (in terms of continuous service) at the start of a parliament since Ted Heath in 1997, who had about 3 months' more at the time. If Clarke and Skinner serve through to at least June 2020, they'd be only the fifth and sixth MPs to achieve half a century's service having served in the 20th century.
On Sunday, on this site somebody mentioned the LibDems using an Egyptian call Center, I was dismissive at the time as it did not seem logical, but I now see that Guido Fawlks is making the same allegation (without much evidence)
I am skeptical but intrigued, it does not seem like a sensible thing to do, because 1) it has a big risk of negative publicity 2) its relatively expensive for a party without much cash 3) Unless the callers are first language English seekers with a reasonable knowledge of UK politics it has the risk of being counter productive.
Does anybody know what is happening? at a push I can see the party paying for some privet poling to see how they are doing in a handful of seats, and using the lowest bidder not realizing that they are Egyptian based, but if this was the case how would the callers know who had called?
Does the political party exemption from certain Data Protection laws (including those of EU provenance) enable them to export personal data outside the EEA?
Surely a least-cost-routing mess rather than the call centre being physically located in Egypt...
If you knock the first zero off the "Egyptian" number it becomes a valid London number: 020 3695 1664
Which does appear to be a LibDem number, based on caller reports. It looks like someone with a mobile that adds an extra zero to numbers in its incoming call log (which happens now and again on my Blackberry) has given Guido a total non-story?
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
YouGov is forecasting Clive Lewis in Norwich South to get around 63% of the vote compared to 39% last time.
That might be right !
Lewis looks utterly nailed on to me.
The more interesting question is whether the Norwich and Lewis effect can trouble Chloe in N North.
That has way more pensioners doesn't it ?
Norwich N is misnamed as only 30k of the 65k voters are actually in Norwich. The rest are in Broadland district.
But that half are very labour and the Green presence is disintegrating. It's a winnable seat against the tide. 12s is long but they are obviously odds against.
The Greens only had 4% in Norwich N last time, while UKIP had 14% and aren't standing
Mr. Rose, Lab down to just over 3 for Morley and Outwood, from 5 until quite recently (Betfair Sportsbook).
It is, apparently, a bit of a one-off, perhaps due to there only being three parties standing and Labour's candidate being a long-term councillor. Had another piece of election literature from him today.
I think it'll be close.
Edited extra bit: 4 on Ladbrokes.
Your back yard eh Morris ..... yes it's an interesting one all right, especially with neither UKIP nor the Greens standing. Baxter gives it to the Tories by a margin of 4.5% and if Mrs May loses this seat you'd have to say she's in real trouble. Incidentally, the best Labour odds are 4.33 with Bet365.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
Battersea or Putney?
No. Far more incredible.
Please not Hornchurch
Looks very very safe to me. 74% combined kipper/Tory vote.
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Not clear at all that those national figures would result in an increased Tory majority, unless Opinium have done some specific constituency polling which they're not disclosing.
Skinner really would be someone to stay up for; though if he's at risk then that puts a very odd chunk of South Yorkshire into play.
Really don't know what to make of these stories coming out of Labour and tory hqs. Bosolver would be huge.
But it makes yougov and survation horrendously wrong. I dont know.
I'd be surprised about Bolsover because although on Brexit grounds it ought to show potential for the Tories, Skinner was himself a Leaver. Whether he still has that much of a personal vote I don't know. You'd have thought that he should but if he's taken the place for granted and preferred to grandstand about his own personal hobby horses instead, it might have evaporated. I saw that happen with Marcus Fox pre-1997 (that wasn't so much about grandstanding as putting the 1922 and his directorships ahead of his constituents but the principle's the same).
What I will say is that the reports I've had back from our activists in Hemsworth have been very positive. They've not been terribly scientific because we don't have the base data to be (it's not been a target in living memory and so resources have in the past been pulled into Wakefield, Morley & Outwood and Dewsbury), but if Hemsworth is thought to be in play then Bolsover - which I'd assume is demographically similar - might well be too.
If Hemsworth is in play then we're not talking swings, we're talking paradigm shifts.
I've heard an extraordinary London rumour on the other side of this equation.
Battersea or Putney?
No. Far more incredible.
Boris?
Ian Duncan smith because the vote has collapsed but i didnt believe it.
I seem to remember on the night of the local elections there was a wild rumour that the Labour vote had "collapsed" in Swansea. When the count was finished, the vote had actually gone up.
Not clear at all that those national figures would result in an increased Tory majority, unless Opinium have done some specific constituency polling which they're not disclosing.
It definitely would because the two party share rising favours the larger party. UKIP won't hit 5% anyway.
Mr. Eagles, they sought the trappings of power and luxury of opposition. Odd for a party so in love with the concept of coalition.
And a shame. Many Lib Dems (Laws, Webb, Lamb, Alexander) were really rather capable.
I was on a stand with the Lib Dems in Sutton Coldfield on Saturday, and Andrew Mitchell wandered over for a chat with our candidate. He mentioned how much he enjoyed working with the Lib Dem ministers in the coalition and expressed his admiration for their abilities.
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Personally, I think she is unwell
Is she unwell, or just under huge pressure?
She's never had to justify herself before, just attack the Tories and blame other people. Now she really has to give serious answers for the first time. And she cannot.
Corbyn tripped up over this the other day too, when he called for TMay's resignation; he just defaulted to back-bench complainer mode.
The political segment of the internet is full of excited people tweeting today that you can “watch the Diane Abbott Sky News interview in full here.” No, thank you. I watched it once and I never want to see it again. The clip is hide behind the sofa embarrassing. The Shadow Home Secretary suffers one of the worst meltdowns in current affairs television history. It is much more than just a so-called “brainfade.” She drowns for four minutes.
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
I have just watched this. It is the first time I have seen Diane Abbott on TV since her TW days and the difference in her ability to respond is obvious - she has become reactive rather than proactive.
Presumably that is fraudulent misrepresentation and something you will, naturally, be reporting to the Electoral Commission given that you are a believer in decency and fair elections.
Mr. Putney, I mentioned it at 5 (for Lab) some weeks ago based on what the Yorkshire Post (or Evening Post, I forget) political editor said on Sky News. He was firmly of the view, and this was backed up by another journalist today on Twitter, that it was a bit of a one-off in that regard and shouldn't be regarded as indicative of any general trend.
Also, it tends to be bloody slow at declaring, so it'll probably come in when we know who's won overall anyway.
Not clear at all that those national figures would result in an increased Tory majority, unless Opinium have done some specific constituency polling which they're not disclosing.
I reckon if that is the result, it lead to the marmalisation of the Lib Dems.
Comments
Forget projections putting Labour within spitting distance of the Conservatives in the June 8 election. Privately, officials and candidates in the U.K.’s main opposition party are preparing to lose dozens of seats.
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-06-06/labour-said-to-privately-be-preparing-for-a-u-k-election-defeat
I do wonder if plans are in place for armed police at our main polling stations on thursday
And a shame. Many Lib Dems (Laws, Webb, Lamb, Alexander) were really rather capable.
This is one confusing election. I'd never even considered that sort of extreme.
Lewis looks utterly nailed on to me.
I am perplexed!
Con unchanged, Lab down one.
-100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
-90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
-80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
Abbott used to be able to do it, just about, by which I mean talk fluent rubbish on telly. Now, days from an election after which she seeks to ascend to running the Home office during a terrorist emergency, she cannot even do that. She looks miserable. Crushed. Defeated.
Make it stop, please. Retire Diane Abbott now.
https://reaction.life/retire-diane-abbott-now-compassionate-grounds/
(See what I did there?)
"The man attacked officers on duty at the Paris police headquarters, which is next to the cathedral, French media say."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-40178183
I think this year we're (almost) having the debate we should have had in 2010 and 2015. The Tories low-key arguing to turn into a tax-haven to spite Europe and Labour loudly arguing for a more interventionist model to revive industries. We need some kind of fundamental restructuring of our role in the world economy or else it's just a slow decline.
It's funny how things turn and the Left is now seen as pro-debt. Karl Marx hated governmental debt, saw it as a roundabout way of boosting faltering profits by a sneaky redistribution of citizens' income to capital...
Plaid set themselves up to be socialists red in tooth and claw, and Corbyn's Labour Party have just upped the spend&borrow&class war ante, and blown them away!
I would hope that a big defeat would make Plaid develop more coherent, attractive and plausible policies, but I fear they would just take it as a signal that they need to up the socialist ante another couple of notches. JonathanPlaid calling most of the Labour MPs red tories just shows why Plaid are probably going to get stuffed outside the north west this year.
Plaid set themselves up to be socialists red in tooth and claw, and Corbyn's Labour Party have just upped the spend&borrow&class war ante, and blown them away!
I would hope that a big defeat would make Plaid develop more coherent, attractive and plausible policies, but I fear they would just take it as a signal that they need to up the socialist ante another couple of notches.
such doors down as "Against":
"C" - Conservative: "I'm definitely for you.",
"You don't need to knock on my door!", "Good
luck mate.", "How's it going elsewhere?"
"P" - Probable Conservative: "I usually vote
Conservative, but I'm not very happy with your
campaign.", "Yeah, I usually do and probably will."
"U" - Undecided: "I don't know.", "Haven't decided
yet" - depending on what they say and how they
say it, can be a forensically analytical floater
or a non-voter
"W" - Waverer: "I think May has been awful but
can't stand Corbyn.", "Worried about security,
but also the NHS"
"S" - Socialist: "Always vote Labour!"
"Wrong door mate.", "No thanks, we're Labour."
"A" - Against: "Secret ballot - none of your
business", "Fuck off."
Incidentally, the best Labour odds are 4.33 with Bet365.
Personally, I think she is unwell
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/872110540348370944
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/03/theresa-may-approval-rating-sinks-as-tory-lead-shrinks-to-six-points
Income tax calculator if Corbyn is prime minister
http://calculate.forlabour.com/
Sorry we don't have one if theresa may is prime minister from friday as she won't tell us the policy.
So basially it's all margin for error stuff.
Confirms the idea that over the past week things have basically stabilized...
Now it will just be down to what happens on the day (voter turnout, voters changing their minds in the polling booth, etc...)
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/872113232974163968
Is she unwell, or just under huge pressure?
She's never had to justify herself before, just attack the Tories and blame other people. Now she really has to give serious answers for the first time. And she cannot.
Corbyn tripped up over this the other day too, when he called for TMay's resignation; he just defaulted to back-bench complainer mode.
Talking of which, I have heard that Tim Farron hasn't been seen further SW than Bristol in four weeks - can anyone confirm this?
Conservative: 25225 (52.1%)
Labour: 12606 (26%)
Lib Dem: 6129 (12.7%)
Green: 1986 (4.1%)
UKIP: 2476 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 12619 (26.1%)
That would be a massive shock if labour turned this over because it took boundary changes to make it a safe tory seat.
Also, it tends to be bloody slow at declaring, so it'll probably come in when we know who's won overall anyway.