politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Labour view as the campaign draws to a close

Partridge!

https://twitter.com/C4Ciaran/status/871850086749360132

foxinsoxuk said:

Nigelb said:

foxinsoxuk said:

paulyork64 said:

Ishmael_Z said:

paulyork64 said:

Charles said:

paulyork64 said:

Charles said:

Nigelb said:

HaroldO said:

Awww Peter Sallis. Aside from Wallace he was also good in the original Ice Warriors story in Doctor Who with Patrick Troughton.
I remember he best in Last of the Summer Wine, the show itself was awful but I used to watch it when I was a lad with my grandparents. Cocoa and Cleggy.

Some here will be pleased to learn he once played Samuel Pepys - though I can think of only one of us who might be old enough to have seen it...

This morning my daughter saw a picture of James II and asked if it was Samuel Pepys... 5 year olds these days...

I'm impressed she was even aware of them!

Her favourite bedtime story is the Fire of London catalogue from the Museum of London...

I'm more of a room on the broom man myself.

It's sad how the innocence has gone out of life. I immediately assumed "room on the broom" was a euphemism for some repulsively depraved act akin to TSE's changing at Baker Street.

Ha. I still haven't googled that. Room on the broom is so good I even practise the voices in my head when the grandchildren aren't here.

Is that the same author as the legendary "A squash and a squeeze" ? I read it so many times to Fox jr that I could probably still recite it from memory.

I still feel Dr Seuss' I Had Trouble in Getting to Solla Sollew has never been bettered...

Green Eggs and Ham!

and of course "Fox in Socks"

Great, but they lack the philosophical depth of his masterpiece.

AndyJS said:

ICM: 11% lead
Survation: 1% lead

Not very helpful from a betting point of view.

Imagine if all the polls were right, all of the time.

Very limited betting opportunities.

rcs1000 said:

Ishmael_Z said:

paulyork64 said:

Charles said:

paulyork64 said:

Charles said:

Nigelb said:

HaroldO said:

Awww Peter Sallis. Aside from Wallace he was also good in the original Ice Warriors story in Doctor Who with Patrick Troughton.
I remember he best in Last of the Summer Wine, the show itself was awful but I used to watch it when I was a lad with my grandparents. Cocoa and Cleggy.

Some here will be pleased to learn he once played Samuel Pepys - though I can think of only one of us who might be old enough to have seen it...

This morning my daughter saw a picture of James II and asked if it was Samuel Pepys... 5 year olds these days...

I'm impressed she was even aware of them!

Her favourite bedtime story is the Fire of London catalogue from the Museum of London...

I'm more of a room on the broom man myself.

It's sad how the innocence has gone out of life. I immediately assumed "room on the broom" was a euphemism for some repulsively depraved act akin to TSE's changing at Baker Street.

Why is changing at Baker Street depraved? (And I'm talking about the sex act

I've googled it now and it reminds me of my favourite (well only) Steve Davis joke.

ThePonderer said:

Going back to earlier threads, if Corbyn ends up with less than 200 seats but, as YouGov are predicting, Labour win Canterbury, would he survive as leader?

Under 200 and I think he struggles.

The_Apocalypse said:

Opinium and Survation were the only polls on the weekend to show the 'surge' continuing, and I think that Survation have essentially produced a poll identical to one on Saturday is likely to be down to methodology and sampling. Their samples have been odd in recent weeks - they gave us 82% of young people being certain to vote recently, and 21% having watched QT on the weekend.

The previous Survation poll was online though, wasn't it?

Danny565 said:

AndyJS said:

ICM: 11% lead
Survation: 1% lead

Not very helpful from a betting point of view.

Well, again, it comes down to whether you assume young people (and the other low-turnout groups) really haven't been any more enthused by Corbyn than they were by Miliband, and really aren't going to turn out on Thursday.

They clearly have been, but enough to lead to a hung parliament?

http://boingboing.net/2017/06/04/theresa-may-king-canute.html

It’s impossible to overstate how bonkers the idea of sabotaging cryptography is to people who understand information security. If you want to secure your sensitive data either at rest – on your hard drive, in the cloud, on that phone you left on the train last week and never saw again – or on the wire, when you’re sending it to your doctor or your bank or to your work colleagues, you have to use good cryptography. Use deliberately compromised cryptography, that has a back door that only the “good guys” are supposed to have the keys to, and you have effectively no security. You might as well skywrite it as encrypt it with pre-broken, sabotaged encryption.

Pulpstar said:

This apparent Survation will be proven to be the biggest load of bollocks the polling industry has ever seen.

Same method that got 2015 almost spot on.

If it all comes down to differential turnout, the one thing I'm not sure about is how much the final result is baked in but we just don't know it yet, and how much volatility there still is between now and Thursday. It could be anything from a 100+ majority to Labour as the largest party.

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

People don't feel safe. And appear to think May's responsibility for actual safety trumps something Corbyn once said about something

Which is odd, as what he said is important, if we are to make him PM this week!

I'mnot a fan of 'least worst' voting, and some will think Corbyn least worst of course, but it is not enough to think one person has done a bad job, if you don't think the alternative will do better. If you do think that, fine, but otherwise what's the point?

To lose an argument about policing and security to Jeremy Corbyn takes crapness to a new level.

Bromptonaut said:

Y0kel said:

Bromptonaut said:

TOPPING said:

What is it with left wingers and violence on behalf of the State? It is the most stark contrast between their student union right on fantasies, and the real world.

The kind of fantasy where Michael Adebolajo and Michael Adebowale were disabled, arrested, put on trial and convicted I guess.

Have you ever been in a life threatening situation whilst armed at all?

Ad hominem again. Yawn.

Its a straightforward question, whats with the lack of a straightforward answer?

RochdalePioneers said:

People don't feel safe. And appear to think May's responsibility for actual safety trumps something Corbyn once said about something

ComRes, ICM and OBR say otherwise though. If just focused on those polls you could equally say 'People don't feel safe, and don't trust Jeremy Corbyn to keep us safe.'

The_Apocalypse said:

kle4 said:

It's incredible. Even with a good Labour campaign and a bad Tory campaign, given we know the poor Labour scores were at least partly reflected in the reality of elections, I cannot fathom such shifts even if those shifts are only so extreme in polls, and not produced in the final result.

Its the sort of thing that makes you go 'Well, ok, I don't think it will happen to that extent, but clearly there has been a huge movement that way'. Of course itmight just total nonsense, but my brain doesn't seem able to see something without ascribing it the weight of evidence, that I cannot just discount.

Every single thing that people, even left wingers and false flaggers (the loonies who suggest that it was 'convenient' terrorist events happen, presuming it will help the Tories), think will aid the Tories, does not seem to make a difference to Labour surging or not.

And I was just feeling able to relax again and all. Sigh.

Today you've had two polls which do not show the surge continuing, and one which shows that most UKIP voters will opt for the Tories and you've chosen to ignore that and panic about a single poll.

It is just weird how so many on this to chose to read the world into a single poll. It's all about trends.

I haven't panicked, I haven't changed my prediction from Tory majority of 40, I merely said i could not relax. It is precisely because I do not know which polls are right that I cannot relax. An alternate data point is not in the direction I'd prefer, it concerns me. Doesn't mean I am ignoring the data points which are in the direction I'd prefer.

Besides which, the trend is Labour narrowing the gap, to some extent.

It is just weird how so many on this choose to believe that when someone says they find a poll concerning, or aren't ruling something out, that they believe it to be right, no matter if the person commenting doesn't say they believe it.

.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

jonny83 said:

kle4 said:

jonny83 said:

Car crash even for Abbott. I wonder if her confidence is like totally shot? Clearly behind the scenes they didn't want her out there. Then it looks like they wheeled her out probably because they questioned why she wasn't out there.

Abbott's always patronising attitude when answering questions reveals she does not lack for confidence, i think.

Normally I would agree but this was really bad. I have seen her slip up in an interview before but this was a complete mess. If your colleagues don't want you out there doing interviews it could knock your confidence even if you tell yourself you can do this.

If you want another dose of the almost obligatory car crash appearance she's first pick on Woman's Hour tomorrow, put up against a panel of women candidates from all the other parties. God almighty, can't she just be put out to grass for a few days? Any Labour woman, from any wing of the party, could do a far better job.

Sunday's YouGov
How good or bad an election campaign do you
think the following politicians have had?
Jeremy Corbyn: Good 48% Bad 18%
Theresa May: Good 20% Bad 48%
Paul Nuttall: Good 4% Bad 36%
Diane Abbott: Good 2% Bad 54%

Now this Woman's Hour could be fun. Abbott vs Rudd has the potential to be a plane crash.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08sks3v

Interviewed Guest Amber Rudd
Interviewed Guest Diane Abbott
Interviewed Guest Jo Swinson
Interviewed Guest Margot Parker
Interviewed Guest Kirsty Blackman
Presenter Jane Garvey

foxinsoxuk said:

kle4 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

People don't feel safe. And appear to think May's responsibility for actual safety trumps something Corbyn once said about something

Which is odd, as what he said is important, if we are to make him PM this week!

I'mnot a fan of 'least worst' voting, and some will think Corbyn least worst of course, but it is not enough to think one person has done a bad job, if you don't think the alternative will do better. If you do think that, fine, but otherwise what's the point?

To lose an argument about policing and security to Jeremy Corbyn takes crapness to a new level.

Well yes, although whenever people try to bring up things he said or did which might rebut him, they are told they are being negative and that it doesn't work, so what's the alternative?

Sandpit said:

.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

jonny83 said:

kle4 said:

jonny83 said:

Car crash even for Abbott. I wonder if her confidence is like totally shot? Clearly behind the scenes they didn't want her out there. Then it looks like they wheeled her out probably because they questioned why she wasn't out there.

Abbott's always patronising attitude when answering questions reveals she does not lack for confidence, i think.

Normally I would agree but this was really bad. I have seen her slip up in an interview before but this was a complete mess. If your colleagues don't want you out there doing interviews it could knock your confidence even if you tell yourself you can do this.

If you want another dose of the almost obligatory car crash appearance she's first pick on Woman's Hour tomorrow, put up against a panel of women candidates from all the other parties. God almighty, can't she just be put out to grass for a few days? Any Labour woman, from any wing of the party, could do a far better job.

Sunday's YouGov
How good or bad an election campaign do you
think the following politicians have had?
Jeremy Corbyn: Good 48% Bad 18%
Theresa May: Good 20% Bad 48%
Paul Nuttall: Good 4% Bad 36%
Diane Abbott: Good 2% Bad 54%

Now this Woman's Hour could be fun. Abbott vs Rudd has the potential to be a plane crash.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08sks3v

Interviewed Guest Amber Rudd
Interviewed Guest Diane Abbott
Interviewed Guest Jo Swinson
Interviewed Guest Margot Parker
Interviewed Guest Kirsty Blackman
Presenter Jane Garvey

Jo Swinson is reliably good.

RepublicanTory said:

CD13 said:

Is Diane well? That video suggests otherwise. Murnaghan was a cat playing with a mouse.

Horrible to watch.

i have to say she really was slow and slurred-i used to enjoy her on This week-she was bright sparky and quick-bat shit crazy-but quick witted.

i didn't see this in that interview.

Not sure, but i felt uncomfortable watching that.

I get the impression as she is trying to stay more on message than she used to have to, and because it is more serious, she goes quite a bit slower as part of a style she thinks is more measured and statesmanlike, as well as giving her more time to process her answers. In theory.

Chris said:

Sandpit said:

Chris said:

Sandpit said:

Tory majority still holding at 1.27 on Betfair. This has to be free money surely, or is Diane's latest car crash going to send more students to the polling booths in their desperation to see her running our security services before next weekend?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708

Well maybe there's a 20% chance that the polls are so far out that the Tories will lose their majority.

But is there really a 10% chance that the polls are so far out that Labour will be the largest party, as the "Most Seats" market implies? Judging by electoralcalculus.co.uk, that would need a Labour lead of 6 points or so.

A couple of weeks ago we mostly agreed here that the 1.1 on the majority was put-your-house-on-it value, amazing how quickly things can change.

I'm already big into the Majority at 1.25, would require not only a major polling failure but also a failure of a lot of canvassing evidence that suggests Corbyn might be piling up votes in Islington and Maidenhead where they're no use to him, but is losing massively in the marginals - especially in the Midlands and NE where there's a large UKIP vote for the blues to squeeze.

For the 1.1 on Most Seats not to come in would be the polling failure of the century, that bet is IMHO the very definition of free money at this stage. No polls this year have even come close to suggesting it, where exactly would Labour find 60-odd gains?

Yes, that was my feeling. It would require a much bigger polling error than last time. YouGov's huge model still has the Tories 37 seats ahead of Labour.

1.25 for the majority maybe doesn't seem wholly unreasonable, given the uncertainties about the polls. But 1.1 for most seats looks much better value.

Well the Survation phone poll seems to be indicating a hung parliament on UNS, so you might be right about where the value lies between those two bets. I'm more than £1k in the shit hole if there's no majority!

@rcs1000 ,still not going to vote for him ;-)

https://twitter.com/AmandeepBhogal/status/871713238513328128

The_Apocalypse said:

@kle4 The trend over the course the GE is that Tory lead is narrowing yes. But the trend since the weekend is that narrowing has stopped and that the lead across most of the polls has essentially stabilised, which is my point.

And why are the ones that stopped more likely to be right than the ones which haven't? I happen to think they're more likely to be right based on other factors, but that doesn't mean I cannot feel concern that alternate movement is picked up by someone else.

I'd be concerned if we saw a 5 point Lab lead, though that'd be much easier to feel comfortable dismissing.

YouGov's election centre is still predicting the strong possibility of Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street in a few days' time with a progressive alliance:

Lab 268
SNP 42
LD 13
PC 2
Greens 1

Total: 326

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

This helps vs survation

https://twitter.com/atulh/status/871854725985177601

Pulpstar said:

This apparent Survation will be proven to be the biggest load of bollocks the polling industry has ever seen.

I think ICM will be closer.

I have said 9 all along and

TMICIPM increased majority. Still think Lab piling up votes where they don't need them

RepublicanTory said:

CD13 said:

Is Diane well? That video suggests otherwise. Murnaghan was a cat playing with a mouse.

Horrible to watch.

i have to say she really was slow and slurred-i used to enjoy her on This week-she was bright sparky and quick-bat shit crazy-but quick witted.

i didn't see this in that interview.

Not sure, but i felt uncomfortable watching that.

I agree she was the same on channel 4 news with Jon snow.You got the feeling and I think he did something was not correct and he eased up.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

This helps vs survation

https://twitter.com/atulh/status/871854725985177601

Ah, Uncut, always there to try to temper Corbynite enthusiasm or halt Tory wobbling. I think they were predicting 160ish Lab a couple of weeks ago.

kle4 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

This helps vs survation

https://twitter.com/atulh/status/871854725985177601

Ah, Uncut, always there to try to temper Corbynite enthusiasm or halt Tory wobbling. I think they were predicting 160ish Lab a couple of weeks ago.

Atul has a problem with polls http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/07/22/sorry-that-labour-leadership-poll-is-nonsense-jeremy-corbyn-is-going-to-finish-fourth/

kle4 said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

This helps vs survation

https://twitter.com/atulh/status/871854725985177601

Ah, Uncut, always there to try to temper Corbynite enthusiasm or halt Tory wobbling. I think they were predicting 160ish Lab a couple of weeks ago.

I thought they were a Labour-supporting blog.

@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-2)
LAB: 40% (+3)

(via @Survation / 02 - 03 Jun)
Chgs. w/ 27 May.

isam said:

Ishmael_Z said:

rcs1000 said:

Ishmael_Z said:

paulyork64 said:

Charles said:

paulyork64 said:

Charles said:

Nigelb said:

HaroldO said:

Awww Peter Sallis. Aside from Wallace he was also good in the original Ice Warriors story in Doctor Who with Patrick Troughton.
I remember he best in Last of the Summer Wine, the show itself was awful but I used to watch it when I was a lad with my grandparents. Cocoa and Cleggy.

Some here will be pleased to learn he once played Samuel Pepys - though I can think of only one of us who might be old enough to have seen it...

This morning my daughter saw a picture of James II and asked if it was Samuel Pepys... 5 year olds these days...

I'm impressed she was even aware of them!

Her favourite bedtime story is the Fire of London catalogue from the Museum of London...

I'm more of a room on the broom man myself.

It's sad how the innocence has gone out of life. I immediately assumed "room on the broom" was a euphemism for some repulsively depraved act akin to TSE's changing at Baker Street.

Why is changing at Baker Street depraved? (And I'm talking about the sex act

Pink line to brown (and I'm not explaining further).

Yes but why is that bad?

Just don't jump the barriers at Baker Street.

foxinsoxuk said:

Sandpit said:

.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

jonny83 said:

kle4 said:

jonny83 said:

Car crash even for Abbott. I wonder if her confidence is like totally shot? Clearly behind the scenes they didn't want her out there. Then it looks like they wheeled her out probably because they questioned why she wasn't out there.

Abbott's always patronising attitude when answering questions reveals she does not lack for confidence, i think.

Normally I would agree but this was really bad. I have seen her slip up in an interview before but this was a complete mess. If your colleagues don't want you out there doing interviews it could knock your confidence even if you tell yourself you can do this.

If you want another dose of the almost obligatory car crash appearance she's first pick on Woman's Hour tomorrow, put up against a panel of women candidates from all the other parties. God almighty, can't she just be put out to grass for a few days? Any Labour woman, from any wing of the party, could do a far better job.

Sunday's YouGov
How good or bad an election campaign do you
think the following politicians have had?
Jeremy Corbyn: Good 48% Bad 18%
Theresa May: Good 20% Bad 48%
Paul Nuttall: Good 4% Bad 36%
Diane Abbott: Good 2% Bad 54%

Now this Woman's Hour could be fun. Abbott vs Rudd has the potential to be a plane crash.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08sks3v

Interviewed Guest Amber Rudd
Interviewed Guest Diane Abbott
Interviewed Guest Jo Swinson
Interviewed Guest Margot Parker
Interviewed Guest Kirsty Blackman
Presenter Jane Garvey

Jo Swinson is reliably good.

Yes, she's very good. Should be worth listening to in the morning.

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

@kle4 The trend over the course the GE is that Tory lead is narrowing yes. But the trend since the weekend is that narrowing has stopped and that the lead across most of the polls has essentially stabilised, which is my point.

And why are the ones that stopped more likely to be right than the ones which haven't? I happen to think they're more likely to be right based on other factors, but that doesn't mean I cannot feel concern that alternate movement is picked up by someone else.

I'd be concerned if we saw a 5 point Lab lead, though that'd be much easier to feel comfortable dismissing.

Well, I think it's a numbers game - more pollsters than not have shown the surge subsiding.

The most people can say about Survation is that one poll that they did not publish two years ago was spot on - it can't be said that they've consistently been bang on the money with actual published polls, like say ICM have been in the past.

I don't think there is any 'right' poll - polls, are supposed to be treated as 'snapshots', not as literal predictions which is perhaps the problem. All big pollsters are using methodologies which I doubt are that well suited for this GE - 2015 turnout and self-reporting. I doubt that turnout will be exactly the same as 2015. But equally, it doesn't appear that there has been enough new voters registered in order to correlate with the kind of surge that self-reporters have indicated. On top of that, self-reporting is known to be notoriously unreliable.

It's likely to be a case of turnout being up, especially with young voters, but this being the case in areas where there are Labour safe seats. That's what recent research indicates, as well as where young voters are concentrated in the country, and the proportion of young voters to old in marginals (as reported by Election Data).

Cyan said:

isam said:

Ishmael_Z said:

rcs1000 said:

Ishmael_Z said:

paulyork64 said:

Charles said:

paulyork64 said:

Charles said:

Nigelb said:

HaroldO said:

Awww Peter Sallis. Aside from Wallace he was also good in the original Ice Warriors story in Doctor Who with Patrick Troughton.
I remember he best in Last of the Summer Wine, the show itself was awful but I used to watch it when I was a lad with my grandparents. Cocoa and Cleggy.

Some here will be pleased to learn he once played Samuel Pepys - though I can think of only one of us who might be old enough to have seen it...

This morning my daughter saw a picture of James II and asked if it was Samuel Pepys... 5 year olds these days...

I'm impressed she was even aware of them!

Her favourite bedtime story is the Fire of London catalogue from the Museum of London...

I'm more of a room on the broom man myself.

It's sad how the innocence has gone out of life. I immediately assumed "room on the broom" was a euphemism for some repulsively depraved act akin to TSE's changing at Baker Street.

Why is changing at Baker Street depraved? (And I'm talking about the sex act

Pink line to brown (and I'm not explaining further).

Yes but why is that bad?

Just don't jump the barriers at Baker Street.

Or shoot a Brazilian.

Scott_P said:

@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-2)
LAB: 40% (+3)

(via @Survation / 02 - 03 Jun)
Chgs. w/ 27 May.

Ooops - another one to add to Sunday's ELBOW (fieldwork ended Saturdayy with this Survation)

Ishmael_Z said:

camel said:

I'm basing this weeks betting on gut feel. I've had enough of experts.

That gut feel is driven by events on the campaign.

Today, Mr Corbyn looked like desperate man, searching for anything to pin on the PM that would swing the election, before heading for some campaigning in the Labour heartlands of Tyneside.

Meanwhile Mrs May soaked up some tough old flak at a new conference, headed up to Scotland where to try bolster they aims to gain half a dozen or more seats, then headed to West Yorkshire, where there are around seven adjoining seats in play.

Maybe I'm a fool that eschews the Water Board's maps and goes looking for a water main with a y shaped stick. But I'm buggered if I can make head nor tale of set of polls that, after last time's fiasco, have been 'fixed' in every imaginable direction.

Northern & midland marginals is where the meat is. And more to the east than the west. Scotland will provide the gravy. Con 90 Maj.

Con maj 1/4 on Betfair is free money. I sincerely hope.

It's 2/7 now (1.29).
*starts biting fingernails*

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

maaarsh said:

kle4 said:

Sometimes I think Abbott is there so that Tories start to get complacent again. I'm not watching her current performance, but even among my Corbynite acquaintances, who are very dimissive of the attacks on the nuclear and IRA issues, they were not fans of her.

She finished by as good as admitting she's sacked on Friday. #asmince

I believe someone teased us with tipping her to be the next Labour leader a while ago here on PB.....

Cough... I see the culprit has owned up ... not our tse surely.

Who is worse, Roberto Soldado or Vincent Jansen?

Asking for a friend who is writing a thread for PB and wants to compare Mrs May to one of the above if she blows this election.

I'd suggest maybe neither. Maybe adebarndoor or Sissoko as over rated yet everyone knew they were at the same time

Atul & loads of canvassers here vs Survation.

Danny565 said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

This apparent Survation will be proven to be the biggest load of bollocks the polling industry has ever seen.

I think ICM will be closer.

I have said 9 all along and

TMICIPM increased majority. Still think Lab piling up votes where they don't need them

I still think this is also going to be true of the Tories: piling up a huge proportion of their extra votes in the longtime Eurosceptic heartlands like Kent, Essex, Lincolnshire, Dorset, etc.

I think the Tories will pile up useless votes in their safe seats in the midlands and north, but they may not do so well in Remain-voting areas in the south like Oxfordshire, Berkshire, etc.

Peter_the_Punter said:

kle4 said:

The_Apocalypse said:

@kle4 The trend over the course the GE is that Tory lead is narrowing yes. But the trend since the weekend is that narrowing has stopped and that the lead across most of the polls has essentially stabilised, which is my point.

And why are the ones that stopped more likely to be right than the ones which haven't? I happen to think they're more likely to be right based on other factors, but that doesn't mean I cannot feel concern that alternate movement is picked up by someone else.

I'd be concerned if we saw a 5 point Lab lead, though that'd be much easier to feel comfortable dismissing.

Survation is the only pollster to record a 1pt lead. No other has gone lower than 3% (YouGov, just once).

I'd want to see a second pollster replicating Survation's findings before regarding them as anything other than outliers.

I liked Nate Silver's article on the subject. For those that missed it:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

And for those too lazy to read it, he's suggesting you take an average of all the polls, which in this case would give a lead of about 7%.

I don't believe it will be 1%, I do think it an outlier. But an outlier by how much is where the concern comes in - a narrowing of the gap from last time between Tory and Lab is another thing that helps Corbyn stay on.

Interesting comment from Uncut:

"One explanation (for the disparity between polls and canvass returns) might be a rise in support among those in a household that don’t normally take part in the doorstep conversation but do answer online polls, such as young voters."

They then say that canvassers didn't find support for that explanation. But still.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scott_P said:

@britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

CON: 41% (-2)
LAB: 40% (+3)

(via @Survation / 02 - 03 Jun)
Chgs. w/ 27 May.

Ooops - another one to add to Sunday's ELBOW (fieldwork ended Saturdayy with this Survation)

Yes, so pretty much covered exactly the same time period as their Saturday poll which ended on Saturday

@sandpit @foxinsox etc re: qatar

Cheers.

I wonder whether the saudi axis is taking their lead from trump, or taking advantage of US government dysfunction.

The tectonic plates in the ME do seem to be shifting.

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Atul & loads of canvassers here vs Survation.

This Survation is exactly the same as the lead they had on Saturday and mainly taken pre terror attack, ICM today had the Tories 11% ahead properly turnout weighted unlike Survation. In 2015 Survation had the Tories on 31% in their final poll, in the end the Tories got 37%.

All the pollsters presumably think they have fixed the reasons they got it wrong last time - the question will be whether they have in fact done so.

Cyan said:

Interesting comment from Uncut:

"One explanation (for the disparity between polls and canvass returns) might be a rise in support among those in a household that don’t normally take part in the doorstep conversation but do answer online polls, such as young voters."

If we went on the online polls and youth turnout in 2015 being the same as they said it would Ed Miliband might well now be PM

Danny565 said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

This apparent Survation will be proven to be the biggest load of bollocks the polling industry has ever seen.

I think ICM will be closer.

I have said 9 all along and

TMICIPM increased majority. Still think Lab piling up votes where they don't need them

I still think this is also going to be true of the Tories: piling up a huge proportion of their extra votes in the longtime Eurosceptic heartlands like Kent, Essex, Lincolnshire, Dorset, etc.

Except the polls show the only region swinging slightly to Labour since 2015 is the South, the big swing to the Tories is in the North and Scotland

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Atul & loads of canvassers here vs Survation.

This Survation is exactly the same as the lead they had on Saturday and mainly taken pre terror attack, ICM today had the Tories 11% ahead properly turnout weighted unlike Survation. In 2015 Survation had the Tories on 31% in their final poll, in the end the Tories got 37%.

All the pollsters presumably think they have fixed the reasons they got it wrong last time - the question will be whether they have in fact done so.

We've been having some degree of issues with polls since 2010. I remember YouGov - along with other pollsters - got it wrong re LDs that year. Five years later, YouGov were predicting the LDs to win 31 seats - they won 8.

Pong said:

@sandpit @foxinsox etc re: qatar

Cheers.

I wonder whether the saudi axis is taking their lead from trump, or taking advantage of US government dysfunction.

The tectonic plates in the ME do seem to be shifting.

It may just be sabre rattling, but smellsmore serious to me.

I do t expect anything big until after Ramadan ends.