politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Labour view as the campaign draws to a close

Ave_it said:

Ave it latest projection!

CON holding on despite difficult campaign and useless manifesto
Poor results in London and South likely to be more than offset by better results elsewhere including Scotland

CON 44%
LAB 34%
LD 8%
UKIP 4%
GRN 3%
SNP 3%
OTH 4%

CON 348
LAB 232
LD 5
UKIP 0
GRN 1
SNP 43
PC 3
OTH 18

CON maj 46

4% for UKIP is almost impossible given how few seats they are standing in.

Ave_it said:

JackW said:

Ave_it said:

Ave it latest projection!

CON holding on despite difficult campaign and useless manifesto
Poor results in London and South likely to be more than offset by better results elsewhere including Scotland

CON 44%
LAB 34%
LD 8%
UKIP 4%
GRN 3%
SNP 3%
OTH 4%

CON 348
LAB 232
LD 5
UKIP 0
GRN 1
SNP 43
PC 3
OTH 18

CON maj 46

Ave_it in Conservative Bedwetting Scandal !!

I am staying as dry as ever! strong and stable!

Nah .... Ave_it is now a Conservative wet .....

rcs1000 said:

Ave_it said:

Ave it latest projection!

CON holding on despite difficult campaign and useless manifesto
Poor results in London and South likely to be more than offset by better results elsewhere including Scotland

CON 44%
LAB 34%
LD 8%
UKIP 4%
GRN 3%
SNP 3%
OTH 4%

CON 348
LAB 232
LD 5
UKIP 0
GRN 1
SNP 43
PC 3
OTH 18

CON maj 46

4% for UKIP is almost impossible given how few seats they are standing in.

There is always a potential error in projections!

JackW said:

Diane Abbott really is coming on Sky News .... soon .... honest guv ....

Like a frog in a well, labour's campaign will slip back.

Ave_it said:

rcs1000 said:

Ave_it said:

Ave it latest projection!

CON holding on despite difficult campaign and useless manifesto
Poor results in London and South likely to be more than offset by better results elsewhere including Scotland

CON 44%
LAB 34%
LD 8%
UKIP 4%
GRN 3%
SNP 3%
OTH 4%

CON 348
LAB 232
LD 5
UKIP 0
GRN 1
SNP 43
PC 3
OTH 18

CON maj 46

4% for UKIP is almost impossible given how few seats they are standing in.

There is always a potential error in projections!

4% would be an average of about 8% in the seats they're contesting, which is plausible IMO.

Diane Abbott on sky wilting badly again

This will be causing a few ructions in UKIP

http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politics/senior-ukip-figure-peter-reeve-urges-people-in-north-norfolk-to-vote-liberal-democrat-1-5047185

JonWC said:

Coldplay fan who also saw them at Wembley.. easily the most impressive show I've ever seen. How many bands can play over twenty songs at a concert?

The full recording of The Who's 'Live at Leeds' has 33.

MarkHopkins said:

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I think everyone is going to wake up to a 120-125 seat Con majority on Friday. The mood music has changed after Saturday night, even within the London liberal bubble that is my social group.

Maybe even higher. The public have decided on Labour's bonkers experiment and will quietly deliver their verdict.

* The only way to be certain of getting rid of Corbyn and starting afresh.

I'm not in favour of a landslide for any other reason.

Casino_Royale said:

HaroldO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, this is a very strange way to campaign to avert a landslide


https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/871744304695443458

It's a very odd way to campaign to win seats too.

He can only be doing this so they can post videos online of him getting large crowds for his speeches....but then only hardcore fans would watch them.

If this were Theresa May, I would think it meant something.

But there could be a multitude of reasons Corbyn is visiting such seats.

So where will TMay end the campaign? I seem to recall Cameron always went to Carlisle (which in 2010 was very telling)....

oh my - oh my - oh my

Home secretary material??

Not in a million years

Sometimes I think Abbott is there so that Tories start to get complacent again. I'm not watching her current performance, but even among my Corbynite acquaintances, who are very dimissive of the attacks on the nuclear and IRA issues, they were not fans of her.

Bloody hell what is she on?

Top class comedy

camel said:

diane is dying on her arse - lack of preparation

She was awful - absolutely woeful

nichomar said:

Bloody hell what is she on?

She looked sedated. Soon snapped out of it when asked about Trump, though.

Imagine if ICM and ComRes either weren't polling or weren't using their historic turnout model.

The average Con lead would be about 4% and presumably No Overall Majority would be favourite - or at least the odds would be very close between Con Maj and NOM.

O/T My older daughter sat her AS Government and Politics earlier today.

The questions were:

VOTING BEHAVIOUR

1) Explain the term Safe seat

2) Explain reasons for differential turnout between constituencies at General Elections.

3) 'Voting behaviour at UK General elections is primarily down to the personalities of those seeking office, as opposed to their policies' Discuss

ELECTORAL SYSTEMS

1) Explain the term representative democracy

2) Identify and explain two reasons why David Cameron decided to call the EU Referendum.

3) 'The use of referendums since 1975 has done little to enhance democracy' Discuss


I reckon most posters here would be nailed on for an easy "A" with those questions. (No A* grade for AS levels). My daughter thought it pretty easy, too - we'll find out if she did as well as she thought on results day in August.

For those who think the visits of cabinet ministers to Bolsover are more than just a coincidence, you can still get 8/1 on the Tories with William Hill.

I'm on.

https://www.ft.com/content/a667b85c-4469-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996

JonWC said:

Coldplay fan who also saw them at Wembley.. easily the most impressive show I've ever seen. How many bands can play over twenty songs at a concert?

Any half decent band that's been around for a few years?

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Any betting implications?

https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/871797582451879936

Oh no, she might be barred from the office she won't hold next week.

Floater said:

Diane Abbott on sky wilting badly again

Had to mute!

Excrutiating!

"I haven't read The Harris Report" would have sufficed

Floater said:

camel said:

diane is dying on her arse - lack of preparation

She was awful - absolutely woeful

So there you have it. The alternative. A Shadow Home Secretary who, at a time of national concern if not emergency, appears on television absolutely unprepared for any kind of interview.

I can only assume Dermot Murnaghan felt sorry for her. He could have had her served up on toast when it became obvious she hadn't read the report.

I'd put it down to crapness/arrogance but there's more to it than that. She appears to me as if she's been swallowing bennies and vodka before appearances.

@LucyJones - I dunno - I'm struggling to think of a second reason for why Cameron called the EU referendum.

Ooer....

https://twitter.com/amolrajanBBC/status/871809625099730945

isam said:

Floater said:

Diane Abbott on sky wilting badly again

Had to mute!

Excrutiating!

"I haven't read The Harris Report" would have sufficed

No, no, no - she said she had read it.

Didn't make much of an impression on you though did it Diane


ROFL

Floater said:

Laughing and wincing at same time

This is one of Labour's best and brightest

Didn't see, but hard to imagine it could get worse for Abbott.

"Mao did more good than harm."

“Though I was born here in London, I couldn’t identify as British”

"...every defeat of the British state is a victory for all of us."

TudorRose said:

Casino_Royale said:

HaroldO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, this is a very strange way to campaign to avert a landslide


https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/871744304695443458

It's a very odd way to campaign to win seats too.

He can only be doing this so they can post videos online of him getting large crowds for his speeches....but then only hardcore fans would watch them.

If this were Theresa May, I would think it meant something.

But there could be a multitude of reasons Corbyn is visiting such seats.

So where will TMay end the campaign? I seem to recall Cameron always went to Carlisle (which in 2010 was very telling)....

My working assumption is that she will be led by CCHQ analysis from Crosby/Messina (which we know is very good, and I personally believe it now too) and will go to a few Labour held seats where the margin of victory is forecast to be 500 votes, or less, in the hope of making the difference, by firming up Tory turnout and winning over last minute waverers.

If she visits defensive Tory-held seats, then that also tells us something.

Casino_Royale said:

TudorRose said:

Casino_Royale said:

HaroldO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, this is a very strange way to campaign to avert a landslide


https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/871744304695443458

It's a very odd way to campaign to win seats too.

He can only be doing this so they can post videos online of him getting large crowds for his speeches....but then only hardcore fans would watch them.

If this were Theresa May, I would think it meant something.

But there could be a multitude of reasons Corbyn is visiting such seats.

So where will TMay end the campaign? I seem to recall Cameron always went to Carlisle (which in 2010 was very telling)....

My working assumption is that she will be led by CCHQ analysis from Crosby/Messina (which we know is very good

Which we know was good last time, and may still be good this time.

BannedInParis said:

kle4 said:

paulyork64 said:

CD13 said:

Mr 64,

"Karen carpenter has the best voice of all time for me."

Now you're talking. Number two is probably Joan Baez.

I haven't heard much of JB. I'll listen out for her. What's her best known song?

She did a famous cover of Blowin' in the Wind, which is a good way to sample if you like her voice.

Dianne Abbott?

I had the same response, that's the trouble with reading this site, who we are talking about keeps changing.

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Jason said:

I also know the sneering and snobbery aimed at Coldplay is rather pathetic.

Coldplay, the Theresa May of 'rock' music.

Prediction: in ten years Coldplay will be seen as unquestionably great. Their problem is they just got too popular, so insecure people (such as yourself, it seems) feel forced to prove their coolness - to separate themselves from the plebs - by sneering at them.

This process happens time and again in pop music. The Bee Gees are an excellent example. Became massively famous, became as reviled as Coldplay. Now no one doubts their enormous talent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpqqjU7u5Yc

100 million views. 100 million! And rightly so. A genius song.

May is not the Bee Gees. She is not Coldplay. Both wrote their own tunes and demonstrated not only popularity ,but creativity.

If May were a band, she would be Jive Bunny. Popular initially with her nostalgic remixes, but ultimately with nothing much to say.

I agree! i never made the comparison. I was just pointing out that people like to sneer at very popular acts, but these acts are often - usually - very popular because they are very talented.

Though I'm not sure TMay is *quite* as bad as Jive Bunny.

I genuinely can't think of anything original from May. Nothing at all. Mostly carries on what Dave started. Borrows from Ed. Borrows from Nigel. Evokes Maggie through her gender. But offers nothing really of her own at all.

It's remarkable really when you think about it. Not a single idea. Even John Major had his cones hotline.

She's pretty disappointing. A decent Labour leader would be marmalising her

But she's very likely to win and she's very likely to be negotiating Brexit so I'm just praying she has deeply hidden talents.

And now, gin.

Successfully negotiating a hugely complex agreement with the need for sensitivity and diplomacy is an entirely different skill set to having an impressive election campaign in the media based on soundbites and presentation skills

Alistair said:

JonWC said:

Coldplay fan who also saw them at Wembley.. easily the most impressive show I've ever seen. How many bands can play over twenty songs at a concert?

Any half decent band that's been around for a few years?

I remember when I first listened to the album "true" by Spandau ballet. Only 8 tracks! Wtf!?

maaarsh said:

kle4 said:

Sometimes I think Abbott is there so that Tories start to get complacent again. I'm not watching her current performance, but even among my Corbynite acquaintances, who are very dimissive of the attacks on the nuclear and IRA issues, they were not fans of her.

She finished by as good as admitting she's sacked on Friday. #asmince

Can you elaborate please? What did she say?

maaarsh said:

kle4 said:

Sometimes I think Abbott is there so that Tories start to get complacent again. I'm not watching her current performance, but even among my Corbynite acquaintances, who are very dimissive of the attacks on the nuclear and IRA issues, they were not fans of her.

She finished by as good as admitting she's sacked on Friday. #asmince

I believe someone teased us with tipping her to be the next Labour leader a while ago here on PB.....

Gallowgate said:

maaarsh said:

kle4 said:

Sometimes I think Abbott is there so that Tories start to get complacent again. I'm not watching her current performance, but even among my Corbynite acquaintances, who are very dimissive of the attacks on the nuclear and IRA issues, they were not fans of her.

She finished by as good as admitting she's sacked on Friday. #asmince

Can you elaborate please? What did she say?

Asked if she was a liability who was being hidden, said she was shadow home secretary so it was natural for her to do interviews.

Then asked if she expected to be home secretary on Friday - "well, the most important thing is that we win a majority which I'm confident we will, then we will see on Friday"

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

TudorRose said:

Casino_Royale said:

HaroldO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, this is a very strange way to campaign to avert a landslide


https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/871744304695443458

It's a very odd way to campaign to win seats too.

He can only be doing this so they can post videos online of him getting large crowds for his speeches....but then only hardcore fans would watch them.

If this were Theresa May, I would think it meant something.

But there could be a multitude of reasons Corbyn is visiting such seats.

So where will TMay end the campaign? I seem to recall Cameron always went to Carlisle (which in 2010 was very telling)....

My working assumption is that she will be led by CCHQ analysis from Crosby/Messina (which we know is very good

Which we know was good last time, and may still be good this time.

I have seen how good it is with my own eyes, on Saturday.

LucyJones said:

O/T My older daughter sat her AS Government and Politics earlier today.

The questions were:

VOTING BEHAVIOUR

1) Explain the term Safe seat

2) Explain reasons for differential turnout between constituencies at General Elections.

3) 'Voting behaviour at UK General elections is primarily down to the personalities of those seeking office, as opposed to their policies' Discuss

ELECTORAL SYSTEMS

1) Explain the term representative democracy

2) Identify and explain two reasons why David Cameron decided to call the EU Referendum.

3) 'The use of referendums since 1975 has done little to enhance democracy' Discuss


I reckon most posters here would be nailed on for an easy "A" with those questions. (No A* grade for AS levels). My daughter thought it pretty easy, too - we'll find out if she did as well as she thought on results day in August.

I am impressed. That is a good set of questions

maaarsh said:

Gallowgate said:

maaarsh said:

kle4 said:

Sometimes I think Abbott is there so that Tories start to get complacent again. I'm not watching her current performance, but even among my Corbynite acquaintances, who are very dimissive of the attacks on the nuclear and IRA issues, they were not fans of her.

She finished by as good as admitting she's sacked on Friday. #asmince

Can you elaborate please? What did she say?

Asked if she was a liability who was being hidden, said she was shadow home secretary so it was natural for her to do interviews.

Then asked if she expected to be home secretary on Friday - "well, the most important thing is that we win a majority which I'm confident we will, then we will see on Friday"

Should the five or six forces in London be amalgamated, she said they should cooperate, the report said amalgamate she said they should cooperate but I agree with the report

You know it was bad when none of the Labour leaners offer any form of defence

I thought AS Levels had been scrapped?

They are great questions and I'm glad kids are being taught/can choose to be taught this stuff. Certainly better than my miserable AS level geography about oxbox lakes.....

LucyJones said:

Pong said:

LucyJones said:

O/T My older daughter sat her AS Government and Politics earlier today.

The questions were:

VOTING BEHAVIOUR

1) Explain the term Safe seat

2) Explain reasons for differential turnout between constituencies at General Elections.

3) 'Voting behaviour at UK General elections is primarily down to the personalities of those seeking office, as opposed to their policies' Discuss

ELECTORAL SYSTEMS

1) Explain the term representative democracy

2) Identify and explain two reasons why David Cameron decided to call the EU Referendum.

3) 'The use of referendums since 1975 has done little to enhance democracy' Discuss


I reckon most posters here would be nailed on for an easy "A" with those questions. (No A* grade for AS levels). My daughter thought it pretty easy, too - we'll find out if she did as well as she thought on results day in August.

I'd guess the higher marks would go to those who can make a convincing argument, and *also* contextualising + representing (and rebutting) opposing arguments.

Quite hard when you're 17 and only have 15 mins per question...

I recon most posters on here would do ok but struggle to get the highest grades.

Good luck to your daughter!

Thanks. She's still only 16 (summer birthday).
She did work experience in the House of Lords last year and managed to get a seat in the gallery for PMQs, the first one after the referendum. She was sitting directly opposite Cameron (and above Corbyn) when Cameron uttered the lines "For goodness sake man, just go now!".

Is she busy on Friday? There's a 15% chance we'll be looking for a competent Home Secretary.

LucyJones said:

Pong said:

LucyJones said:

O/T My older daughter sat her AS Government and Politics earlier today.

The questions were:

VOTING BEHAVIOUR

1) Explain the term Safe seat

2) Explain reasons for differential turnout between constituencies at General Elections.

3) 'Voting behaviour at UK General elections is primarily down to the personalities of those seeking office, as opposed to their policies' Discuss

ELECTORAL SYSTEMS

1) Explain the term representative democracy

2) Identify and explain two reasons why David Cameron decided to call the EU Referendum.

3) 'The use of referendums since 1975 has done little to enhance democracy' Discuss


I reckon most posters here would be nailed on for an easy "A" with those questions. (No A* grade for AS levels). My daughter thought it pretty easy, too - we'll find out if she did as well as she thought on results day in August.

I'd guess the higher marks would go to those who can make a convincing argument, and *also* contextualising + representing (and rebutting) opposing arguments.

Quite hard when you're 17 and only have 15 mins per question...

I recon most posters on here would do ok but struggle to get the highest grades.

Good luck to your daughter!

Thanks. She's still only 16 (summer birthday).
She did work experience in the House of Lords last year and managed to get a seat in the gallery for PMQs, the first one after the referendum. She was sitting directly opposite Cameron (and above Corbyn) when Cameron uttered the lines "For goodness sake man, just go now!".

What on Earth is work experience in Hol? A long nap?

Jonathan said:

LucyJones said:

Pong said:

LucyJones said:

O/T My older daughter sat her AS Government and Politics earlier today.

The questions were:

VOTING BEHAVIOUR

1) Explain the term Safe seat

2) Explain reasons for differential turnout between constituencies at General Elections.

3) 'Voting behaviour at UK General elections is primarily down to the personalities of those seeking office, as opposed to their policies' Discuss

ELECTORAL SYSTEMS

1) Explain the term representative democracy

2) Identify and explain two reasons why David Cameron decided to call the EU Referendum.

3) 'The use of referendums since 1975 has done little to enhance democracy' Discuss


I reckon most posters here would be nailed on for an easy "A" with those questions. (No A* grade for AS levels). My daughter thought it pretty easy, too - we'll find out if she did as well as she thought on results day in August.

I'd guess the higher marks would go to those who can make a convincing argument, and *also* contextualising + representing (and rebutting) opposing arguments.

Quite hard when you're 17 and only have 15 mins per question...

I recon most posters on here would do ok but struggle to get the highest grades.

Good luck to your daughter!

Thanks. She's still only 16 (summer birthday).
She did work experience in the House of Lords last year and managed to get a seat in the gallery for PMQs, the first one after the referendum. She was sitting directly opposite Cameron (and above Corbyn) when Cameron uttered the lines "For goodness sake man, just go now!".

What on Earth is work experience in Hol? A long nap?

LOL.

How to file an expenses claim.

Theresa in Bradford tonight - make of that what you will. Earlier in Ripon.

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/15329612.Prime_Minister_arrives_in_Bradford/

KentRising said:

I thought AS Levels had been scrapped?

They are great questions and I'm glad kids are being taught/can choose to be taught this stuff. Certainly better than my miserable AS level geography about oxbox lakes.....

No - politics is being reformed from next year anyway, so it is still on the old system (it's one of the last to change and is incidentally changing very much for the worse). However, the key thing is that AS levels under the new system no longer count towards A-levels. You can still do them, but they are a qualification worth half an A-level, rather than half of a full A-level.

Bufton_Tufton said:

Theresa in Bradford tonight - make of that what you will. Earlier in Ripon.

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/15329612.Prime_Minister_arrives_in_Bradford/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradford_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Unexpected endorsement !
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/871814374935203841

surbiton said:

ydoethur said:

nichomar said:

Floater said:

tlg86 said:

nichomar said:

Bloody hell what is she on?

She looked sedated. Soon snapped out of it when asked about Trump, though.

Because she had no fucking clue what the reporter was on about

He was kind, other reporters would have eviscerated her for that pile of shite.

It was far better to let herself hang out to dry than pulling her to shreds which would only marginally improve the sympathy vote, how did she get past a constituency selection meeting, was their only one candidate?

She was almost certainly the only black woman, this being in the heyday of Militant and the Loony Left when things like gender and race were shall we say rather important.

That said, although I've never been her biggest admirer I've been really shocked by her meltdown over this campaign. Is she suffering from some kind of illness?

I remember those days in London. Militant was anti black. In fact, Militant was against the middle class as well.

That's more than a little surprising given they went through children's books seeking out caricatures of black people they could ban. I don't think Ms Abbott would thank you for calling her middle class either.

ydoethur said:

No - politics is being reformed from next year anyway, so it is still on the old system (it's one of the last to change and is incidentally changing very much for the worse). However, the key thing is that AS levels under the new system no longer count towards A-levels. You can still do them, but they are a qualification worth half an A-level, rather than half of a full A-level.

Why is the Politics subject changing for the worse? Watered down?

KentRising said:

I thought AS Levels had been scrapped?

They are great questions and I'm glad kids are being taught/can choose to be taught this stuff. Certainly better than my miserable AS level geography about oxbox lakes.....

As someone just about to be the first cohort through the new system, making A levels only be assessed at the end of the two years is great, imo.