politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not Y
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But are you prepared for the massive victory for Corbyn when May increases her majority and adds 2 more years to her term ?Black_Rook said:
I'm still sticking stubbornly to the 120-ish I predicted five weeks ago. I always thought the more calamitous rout projections looked too good to be true, but on the other hand the polls showing a tight race look implausible, and there's every reason to believe that the Conservative vote will be quite efficiently distributed, Labour's the reverse. There's also the small matter of the extent to which campaigns - even those that are judged to be awful - actually shift peoples' settled intentions in the run-up to an election. Did Neil Kinnock *really* lose in 1992 because of the Sheffield Rally?HYUFD said:
I think 100 is still possible but 150+ went after the social care fiascoThe_Taxman said:
I think the Tories are looking at a majority over 160+ and although this is not being reflected in the polls I think people will be shocked on June 9th.Black_Rook said:
I take it you refer to Penistone & Stocksbridge? That's seat 70 on the Con target list - a long way down, but with a huge 2015 Ukip vote. Just the sort of place they should be threatening to take if Labour is in for a drubbing.Pulpstar said:
Someone else clearly had info on "The Sheffield seats" - reckoned Labour were going to win 4. Implies Clegg is safe (Unless he is vulnerable to the Tories) and Stocksbridge is in trouble.nunu said:Apperently a labour source said the postal votes don't look good for labour in Ealing central! if true then this is a landslide.
Tweets were deleted shortly after as he was worried he had broken the law.
Nevertheless he did post the stuff.0 -
Did Corbyn and Labour draw the Tories in with the tactics of Quintus Fabius Maximus, until his forces were ready to turn the tide strike and defeat the superior General like Scipio at Zama?Carolus_Rex said:
Don't do it. You'll think you can handle it at first, but before you know it you'll be comparing Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbot to Gaius Terrentius Varro and Lucius Aemilius Paullus.The_Apocalypse said:MorrisDancer - thanks. I'll try and catch F1 next time it's on!
It's a slippery slope...0 -
That is genuinely excellent to hear, but it needs airtime. We want the arch-imam on prime time tv. I don't buy the idea that it is best targeted in sermons only, because I'd like to get the secular muslims actively onside rather than pigeonholing it as a theological issue. And note that many/most bombers turn out to have had a distinctly secular booze n women lifestyle prior to radicalisation.nunu said:
I'm sorry this is just not true. Imams condemn these attacks all the time. The media never give or hardly ever give it airtime. The bbc etc need to step up.Ishmael_Z said:
What worries me is this: I am in no doubt that the majority of uk Muslims are wholly opposed to and disgusted by jihadi killings, including imams and "community leaders" (whatever they are) and that the government takes advice from senior figures in UK Muslim society. The most obvious thing in the world would be the condemnation on radio and TV by imams of events like Saturday's, but we hear nothing. The only guess I can make as to why this is, is that the advice has been given to the government that the condemnation would be counterproductive - ie that condemnation of jihad even from imams would be an insult to Allah to be avenged by further jihad. That's how frighteningly out of control this is.Alanbrooke said:
consensus at my workplace seems to be Birmingham is nextAlastairMeeks said:The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html
This bit leapt out to me:
"Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.
He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.
“People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."
The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.
- large muslim population
- disaffected young preferring C7 to C21
- all attacks have been started by locals
the grim betting is that Broad Street ( weekend funspot ) is most likely target0 -
May is simply the classic Olde English Head Mistress. Surely anyone brought up in the 70's/80s or before would recognise? The other staff (Ruth, Boris) are like the cool younger teachers who relate to the kids, tell the odd joke, whereas she is the serious, almost other worldly, distant disciplinarianjonny83 said:
She had the Tory Rockstar Ruth with her today, that would have helpedperdix said:
TM's appearance in Scotland today showed her to be very relaxed. But running a campaign and overseeing the terror fight back is bound to be stressful. She can take it. The thing about Type 1 is to have iron discipline.SouthamObserver said:
She does seem to have aged considerably over the course of the campaign.OchEye said:Not being funny. Any Doctors around? Just watched May on the BBC news channel. Looking at her face and started wondering.... Considering the amount of stress she's been under recently, plus some one mentioned that she has diabetes....
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Indeed - he was intro'd as an independent reviewer and really couldn't have been more helpful for TMay in the circumstances....marke09 said:
He used to be a Lib Dem MPScrapheap_as_was said:
Said it again on R5 within the last hour - said whether police cuts or not was a genuine debating point for the election but in terms of counter terrorism it wasn't relevant....those were resourced sufficiently.marke09 said:Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak 5h5 hours ago
after lots of Qs to May on police cuts, Lord Carlile, often govt critic, says terror cops have enough resources + debate on cuts wrong one
If a Tory minister I'd be tracking those quotes down to use asap!0 -
She does have a relatively dark complexion and does get some racist abuse sometimes. Literally has been spat on from a man in a white van. This does colour her views.MarkHopkins said:pbr2013 said:But at least one of my successful 20 something Corbynista relatives was, like, really upset yesterday, by May's speech because it did not do enough to combat Islamophobia. She is smart. Bright. But she makes me despair.
It's an attempt to control her world view. She doesn't like the attacks (presumably), but doesn't want to believe that Islamic Extremists could just be inherently bad - either that's too scary or she rejects it as it appears 'racist'. Therefore the only alternative is that we must be causing the problem - hence the need to target Islamophobia.
It's nonsense. But it's subconscious self-rationalised nonsense.0 -
No Labour were always going to be beaten in 1992, they only had 230 seats going into that election. The electorate believed it when Kinnock was introduced as the next PM, it was an entirely bogus proposition given the relative popularity of both main parties in the year running up to that election. What the people don't know is the limitations that FPTP put on parties making enough gains 80 + to become the largest party in that sort of set-up. 1997 and 2010 were unusual in the number of seats that went from one main party to the other.Black_Rook said:
I'm still sticking stubbornly to the 120-ish I predicted five weeks ago. I always thought the more calamitous rout projections looked too good to be true, but on the other hand the polls showing a tight race look implausible, and there's every reason to believe that the Conservative vote will be quite efficiently distributed, Labour's the reverse. There's also the small matter of the extent to which campaigns - even those that are judged to be awful - actually shift peoples' settled intentions in the run-up to an election. Did Neil Kinnock *really* lose in 1992 because of the Sheffield Rally?HYUFD said:
I think 100 is still possible but 150+ went after the social care fiascoThe_Taxman said:
I think the Tories are looking at a majority over 160+ and although this is not being reflected in the polls I think people will be shocked on June 9th.Black_Rook said:
I take it you refer to Penistone & Stocksbridge? That's seat 70 on the Con target list - a long way down, but with a huge 2015 Ukip vote. Just the sort of place they should be threatening to take if Labour is in for a drubbing.Pulpstar said:
Someone else clearly had info on "The Sheffield seats" - reckoned Labour were going to win 4. Implies Clegg is safe (Unless he is vulnerable to the Tories) and Stocksbridge is in trouble.nunu said:Apperently a labour source said the postal votes don't look good for labour in Ealing central! if true then this is a landslide.
Tweets were deleted shortly after as he was worried he had broken the law.
Nevertheless he did post the stuff.0 -
A little wooden I thought..perdix said:
TM's appearance in Scotland today showed her to be very relaxed. But running a campaign and overseeing the terror fight back is bound to be stressful. She can take it. The thing about Type 1 is to have iron discipline.SouthamObserver said:
She does seem to have aged considerably over the course of the campaign.OchEye said:Not being funny. Any Doctors around? Just watched May on the BBC news channel. Looking at her face and started wondering.... Considering the amount of stress she's been under recently, plus some one mentioned that she has diabetes....
https://twitter.com/naebD/status/8717588507178885120 -
Anecdote!
Citizenship class for Ms Scrap today and they are having their own election, she's gone Lib Dem campaigner as a pro-Europe wet like yours truly but doesn't approve of TMay fox hunting vote.... no one wanted to be Labour and a class-mate on Jeremy Corbyn asked "isn't he the homeless one?"
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Can't be much room in there with Diane Abbot....Theuniondivvie said:
A little wooden I thought..perdix said:
TM's appearance in Scotland today showed her to be very relaxed. But running a campaign and overseeing the terror fight back is bound to be stressful. She can take it. The thing about Type 1 is to have iron discipline.SouthamObserver said:
She does seem to have aged considerably over the course of the campaign.OchEye said:Not being funny. Any Doctors around? Just watched May on the BBC news channel. Looking at her face and started wondering.... Considering the amount of stress she's been under recently, plus some one mentioned that she has diabetes....
https://twitter.com/naebD/status/8717588507178885120 -
LOLTGOHF said:
But are you prepared for the massive victory for Corbyn when May increases her majority and adds 2 more years to her term ?Black_Rook said:
I'm still sticking stubbornly to the 120-ish I predicted five weeks ago. I always thought the more calamitous rout projections looked too good to be true, but on the other hand the polls showing a tight race look implausible, and there's every reason to believe that the Conservative vote will be quite efficiently distributed, Labour's the reverse. There's also the small matter of the extent to which campaigns - even those that are judged to be awful - actually shift peoples' settled intentions in the run-up to an election. Did Neil Kinnock *really* lose in 1992 because of the Sheffield Rally?HYUFD said:
I think 100 is still possible but 150+ went after the social care fiascoThe_Taxman said:
I think the Tories are looking at a majority over 160+ and although this is not being reflected in the polls I think people will be shocked on June 9th.Black_Rook said:
I take it you refer to Penistone & Stocksbridge? That's seat 70 on the Con target list - a long way down, but with a huge 2015 Ukip vote. Just the sort of place they should be threatening to take if Labour is in for a drubbing.Pulpstar said:
Someone else clearly had info on "The Sheffield seats" - reckoned Labour were going to win 4. Implies Clegg is safe (Unless he is vulnerable to the Tories) and Stocksbridge is in trouble.nunu said:Apperently a labour source said the postal votes don't look good for labour in Ealing central! if true then this is a landslide.
Tweets were deleted shortly after as he was worried he had broken the law.
Nevertheless he did post the stuff.
Seriously, if Corbyn manages to increase Labour's share of the vote at the end of all of this - even because it's entirely down to the fact that everyone bar Con, Lab and SNP have been squeezed to a pulp in a vice - then I'm sure that this will be taken as more than adequate justification for his soldiering on. And if I'm wrong and he somehow manages not to lose many seats as well, then he is undoubtedly safe.
I still maintain that the landslide is on, but TBH right now I'd settle for any working majority for the Conservatives - 30 would do. I've personal reasons for being particularly concerned about an outbreak of socialist lunacy right now. If it comes in five years' time I ought to be much better prepared.0 -
Where in the country?Scrapheap_as_was said:Anecdote!
Citizenship class for Ms Scrap today and they are having their own election, she's gone Lib Dem campaigner as a pro-Europe wet like yours truly but doesn't approve of TMay fox hunting vote.... no one wanted to be Labour and a class-mate on Jeremy Corbyn asked "isn't he the homeless one?"0 -
If he increases Lab's share of the vote, then he's staying and his position will be solidified significantly.Black_Rook said:
LOLTGOHF said:
But are you prepared for the massive victory for Corbyn when May increases her majority and adds 2 more years to her term ?Black_Rook said:
I'm still sticking stubbornly to the 120-ish I predicted five weeks ago. I always thought the more calamitous rout projections looked too good to be true, but on the other hand the polls showing a tight race look implausible, and there's every reason to believe that the Conservative vote will be quite efficiently distributed, Labour's the reverse. There's also the small matter of the extent to which campaigns - even those that are judged to be awful - actually shift peoples' settled intentions in the run-up to an election. Did Neil Kinnock *really* lose in 1992 because of the Sheffield Rally?HYUFD said:
I think 100 is still possible but 150+ went after the social care fiascoThe_Taxman said:
I think the Tories are looking at a majority over 160+ and although this is not being reflected in the polls I think people will be shocked on June 9th.Black_Rook said:
I take it you refer to Penistone & Stocksbridge? That's seat 70 on the Con target list - a long way down, but with a huge 2015 Ukip vote. Just the sort of place they should be threatening to take if Labour is in for a drubbing.Pulpstar said:
Someone else clearly had info on "The Sheffield seats" - reckoned Labour were going to win 4. Implies Clegg is safe (Unless he is vulnerable to the Tories) and Stocksbridge is in trouble.nunu said:Apperently a labour source said the postal votes don't look good for labour in Ealing central! if true then this is a landslide.
Tweets were deleted shortly after as he was worried he had broken the law.
Nevertheless he did post the stuff.
Seriously, if Corbyn manages to increase Labour's share of the vote at the end of all of this - even because it's entirely down to the fact that everyone bar Con, Lab and SNP have been squeezed to a pulp in a vice - then I'm sure that this will be taken as more than adequate justification for his soldiering on. And if I'm wrong and he somehow manages not to lose many seats as well, then he is undoubtedly safe.
I still maintain that the landslide is on, but TBH right now I'd settle for any working majority for the Conservatives - 30 would do. I've personal reasons for being particularly concerned about an outbreak of socialist lunacy right now. If it comes in five years' time I ought to be much better prepared.0 -
Anyway - time to watch WWDC like the mega nerd I am. 0
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Absolutely. Losing plenty of seats, even while increasing vote share (the latter of which is very likely it seems) still leaves him vulnerable. Losing only a few? That's manageable, given what it was expected would happen.Black_Rook said:
LOLTGOHF said:
But are you prepared for the massive victory for Corbyn when May increases her majority and adds 2 more years to her term ?Black_Rook said:
I'm still sticking stubbornly to the 120-ish I predicted five weeks ago. I always thought the more calamitous rout projections looked too good to be true, but on the other hand the polls showing a tight race look implausible, and there's every reason to believe that the Conservative vote will be quite efficiently distributed, Labour's the reverse. There's also the small matter of the extent to which campaigns - even those that are judged to be awful - actually shift peoples' settled intentions in the run-up to an election. Did Neil Kinnock *really* lose in 1992 because of the Sheffield Rally?HYUFD said:
I think 100 is still possible but 150+ went after the social care fiascoThe_Taxman said:
I think the Tories are looking at a majority over 160+ and although this is not being reflected in the polls I think people will be shocked on June 9th.Black_Rook said:
I take it you refer to Penistone & Stocksbridge? That's seat 70 on the Con target list - a long way down, but with a huge 2015 Ukip vote. Just the sort of place they should be threatening to take if Labour is in for a drubbing.Pulpstar said:
Someone else clearly had info on "The Sheffield seats" - reckoned Labour were going to win 4. Implies Clegg is safe (Unless he is vulnerable to the Tories) and Stocksbridge is in trouble.nunu said:Apperently a labour source said the postal votes don't look good for labour in Ealing central! if true then this is a landslide.
Tweets were deleted shortly after as he was worried he had broken the law.
Nevertheless he did post the stuff.
Seriously, if Corbyn manages to increase Labour's share of the vote at the end of all of this - even because it's entirely down to the fact that everyone bar Con, Lab and SNP have been squeezed to a pulp in a vice - then I'm sure that this will be taken as more than adequate justification for his soldiering on. And if I'm wrong and he somehow manages not to lose many seats as well, then he is undoubtedly safe.0 -
The glorious Peoples Republic of Bercow..... so hardly prime territory for the red team I grant you!Gallowgate said:
Where in the country?Scrapheap_as_was said:Anecdote!
Citizenship class for Ms Scrap today and they are having their own election, she's gone Lib Dem campaigner as a pro-Europe wet like yours truly but doesn't approve of TMay fox hunting vote.... no one wanted to be Labour and a class-mate on Jeremy Corbyn asked "isn't he the homeless one?"
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Ms. Apocalypse, Canadian race is on at 7pm next Sunday, but I'm unsure if it's live or highlights on Channel 4.
Mr. Mark, sounds a bit like the 1970s documentary about how stupidly dangerous it was (driver mortality rate comparable to, or worse than, war).0 -
IZ made the same claim this morning, and several PB'ers put him straight. To make the same mistaken point again this afternoon (particularly following on from the very clear statement made by just such a person on R4 earlier) is poor. In fact it's worse than poor. It's pushing a very destructive agenda in the face of the evidence.nunu said:
I'm sorry this is just not true. Imams condemn these attacks all the time. The media never give or hardly ever give it airtime. The bbc etc need to step up.Ishmael_Z said:
What worries me is this: I am in no doubt that the majority of uk Muslims are wholly opposed to and disgusted by jihadi killings, including imams and "community leaders" (whatever they are) and that the government takes advice from senior figures in UK Muslim society. The most obvious thing in the world would be the condemnation on radio and TV by imams of events like Saturday's, but we hear nothing. The only guess I can make as to why this is, is that the advice has been given to the government that the condemnation would be counterproductive - ie that condemnation of jihad even from imams would be an insult to Allah to be avenged by further jihad. That's how frighteningly out of control this is.Alanbrooke said:
consensus at my workplace seems to be Birmingham is nextAlastairMeeks said:The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html
This bit leapt out to me:
"Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.
He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.
“People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."
The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.
- large muslim population
- disaffected young preferring C7 to C21
- all attacks have been started by locals
the grim betting is that Broad Street ( weekend funspot ) is most likely target0 -
Found - manifesto even to the left of Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/8717667276039577610 -
I didn't realize Ruth is only 38! Could do a few more years in Scotland and then look to move south, that's if she fancies a crack at the leadership at some point.0
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He is as right wing as they come. And always was. He is not a pleasant man, either.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed - he was intro'd as an independent reviewer and really couldn't have been more helpful for TMay in the circumstances....marke09 said:
He used to be a Lib Dem MPScrapheap_as_was said:
Said it again on R5 within the last hour - said whether police cuts or not was a genuine debating point for the election but in terms of counter terrorism it wasn't relevant....those were resourced sufficiently.marke09 said:Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak 5h5 hours ago
after lots of Qs to May on police cuts, Lord Carlile, often govt critic, says terror cops have enough resources + debate on cuts wrong one
If a Tory minister I'd be tracking those quotes down to use asap!0 -
How would they know in the first place, and what on earth would possess them to say something contrary to both the law and their self interest?nunu said:Apperently a labour source said the postal votes don't look good for labour in Ealing central! if true then this is a landslide.
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Isn't he a QC, a Privy Counseller, and expert on SeccurityIanB2 said:
He is as right wing as they come. And always was. He is not a pleasant man, either.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed - he was intro'd as an independent reviewer and really couldn't have been more helpful for TMay in the circumstances....marke09 said:
He used to be a Lib Dem MPScrapheap_as_was said:
Said it again on R5 within the last hour - said whether police cuts or not was a genuine debating point for the election but in terms of counter terrorism it wasn't relevant....those were resourced sufficiently.marke09 said:Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak 5h5 hours ago
after lots of Qs to May on police cuts, Lord Carlile, often govt critic, says terror cops have enough resources + debate on cuts wrong one
If a Tory minister I'd be tracking those quotes down to use asap!0 -
Still perplexed by Sturgeons multiple campaign stops in the South of Scotland. Sure she has to know they are gone gone gone.0
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If anything we haven't reacted enough. Or we have reacted in a very passive way - all those candles and lighting up of buildings. All very lovely but some righteous anger is needed also and some focused action. So concerned have we been not to blame others for the actions of terrorists (a good thing on the whole) that we have (wrongly) shied away from asking the hard questions of Muslims as to whether there is or might be something within Islam or the Islamic world view which has been one of the causes of what is happening. That self-criticism needs to happen. And it needs to be seen to happen. By not asking these tough questions or by muttering the pointless platitude of this having nothing to do with Islam when plainly it has something to do with it, however misguidedly, the ground has been ceded to the extremists who present a seductively persuasive case based on misreadings of the Koran that violent jihad is essential to being a good Muslim. Revolting and doubtless inaccurate. But if not challenged and in detail by those who understand the Koran better than the jihadis why would a young man not believe that?isam said:Ishmael_Z said:Alanbrooke said:AlastairMeeks said:
Bad ideas can only be defeated by presenting better ideas not by refusing to engage in the argument at all. But that, in essence, what has happened for the last decades. The bad ideas of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hizb-ut-Tahir and IS and Al Qaeda and others have not been challenged. Rather those Muslims who have tried to do so have been howled down and attacked and sometimes put in fear of their lives.
Challenge Saudi Arabia. But challenge the Deobandi mosques in this country too. They are pretty hard line too. Challenge the mosques which talk about tolerance on the one hand (tolerance for themselves) but host hate preachers preaching intolerance towards others on the other. Above all, challenge the endless bloody victim mentality that too many Muslim community leaders (or so-called leaders) adopt almost as an automatic reflex as a way of deflecting any responsibility at all for why their young men and women turn to the most violent possible interpretation or misinterpretation of their religion or any responsibility for ensuring that this does not happen. We should surely expect more than just simple condemnation of appalling crimes, welcome as that is. Terrorist fish need a sea to swim in. On the whole they don't just come from nowhere.
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It was said in the context of trying to drum up more supporters...Recidivist said:
How would they know in the first place, and what on earth would possess them to say something contrary to both the law and their self interest?nunu said:Apperently a labour source said the postal votes don't look good for labour in Ealing central! if true then this is a landslide.
Still got to be as dumb as a brick to say it though.0 -
John Sopel - or is it Captain Black? - could at least pretend to be impartial on the BBC 6 News.0
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No, Portland PlacePeter_the_Punter said:
Are you in Hampstead?HYUFD said:Just walked past Melvyn Bragg
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Pulpstar said:
Found - manifesto even to the left of Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/871766727603957761
New Parliament to be built.
In Blaydon.
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You would have to assume that the two on the Border probably are. D&G, less so.Alistair said:Still perplexed by Sturgeons multiple campaign stops in the South of Scotland. Sure she has to know they are gone gone gone.
I don't see much of the details of the Scottish campaign from where I am, but I assume that she's been on manoeuvres in the North East as well? The Conservatives are the main enemy in this campaign: each loss to the Tories will slightly tip the balance - between Sturgeon insisting her demands for indyref2 are watertight, and May having the confidence to stonewall until 2021 - against the Scottish Government.0 -
It's fascinating to see where they turn up and whether it could be an indicator of what is going on behind the scenes and what their own polling and feedback shows.Alistair said:Still perplexed by Sturgeons multiple campaign stops in the South of Scotland. Sure she has to know they are gone gone gone.
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To be fair he is not just 'an' independent reviewer. His official title in his previous role was The Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation. I would suggest he certainly knows something about the subject.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed - he was intro'd as an independent reviewer and really couldn't have been more helpful for TMay in the circumstances....marke09 said:
He used to be a Lib Dem MPScrapheap_as_was said:
Said it again on R5 within the last hour - said whether police cuts or not was a genuine debating point for the election but in terms of counter terrorism it wasn't relevant....those were resourced sufficiently.marke09 said:Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak 5h5 hours ago
after lots of Qs to May on police cuts, Lord Carlile, often govt critic, says terror cops have enough resources + debate on cuts wrong one
If a Tory minister I'd be tracking those quotes down to use asap!0 -
Ha ... lib dem until recently. He could not stand the LDs hand wringing anti terror approach.He's Jewish though so maybe sensitive about terrorism. Does that mark him out as 'right wing'.IanB2 said:
He is as right wing as they come. And always was. He is not a pleasant man, either.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Indeed - he was intro'd as an independent reviewer and really couldn't have been more helpful for TMay in the circumstances....marke09 said:
He used to be a Lib Dem MPScrapheap_as_was said:
Said it again on R5 within the last hour - said whether police cuts or not was a genuine debating point for the election but in terms of counter terrorism it wasn't relevant....those were resourced sufficiently.marke09 said:Laura KuenssbergVerified account @bbclaurak 5h5 hours ago
after lots of Qs to May on police cuts, Lord Carlile, often govt critic, says terror cops have enough resources + debate on cuts wrong one
If a Tory minister I'd be tracking those quotes down to use asap!0 -
Nice spelling of Labour on the right there lolMarqueeMark said:Pulpstar said:Found - manifesto even to the left of Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/871766727603957761
New Parliament to be built.
In Blaydon.0 -
Sturgeon's motives may be slightly different, mother of the nation, no 'no go' areas etc, but perhaps her SNP data is showing her presence may make a difference in some areas.Alistair said:Still perplexed by Sturgeons multiple campaign stops in the South of Scotland. Sure she has to know they are gone gone gone.
I found it interesting she went to Ayr.0 -
You cannot vote for your siblingpbr2013 said:Is it too early to nominate @The_Apocalypse as poster of the year? Open-minded, sticks up for herself but prepared to take on board different views? And of course outside the standard PB demographic.
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They might as well beBlack_Rook said:
There may be a lot of potential for the Shy Tory Problem to rear its ugly head again this time. Remember, the Conservatives are looking for gains in traditional Labour areas - in the Midlands, and especially up North - where there is a long cultural Labour tradition, and people can feel very embarrassed about owning up to their intention to vote Tory.Chameleon said:I'm completely split on how this election will go, firstly I seem to be seeing signs of the Con core slowly falling apart, but this is mostly in the safe shires, so if the polls are right then the Con majority should be greater than polls indicate. On the other hand, polls have massive weightings applied for shy Tories, what if there aren't as many as before? In which case gains could be an awful lot more limited.
Doubts? Read this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-voters-fear-friends-and-family-will-disown-them-for-switching-to-tories-huffpost-edelman-focus-group_uk_59205461e4b03b485cb1e86b
It's absolutely extraordinary. Some of these people sound as if they're confessing to a crime.0 -
Went totally doolally.calum said:0 -
LOL, is that because he is some MI5 bigshot or a deluded keyboard warrior.nunu said:
actually Y0kel was dropping some big hints that Brum will be next.Alanbrooke said:
do you work in Birmingham ?David_Evershed said:
Do you work at MI5 ?Alanbrooke said:
consensus at my workplace seems to be Birmingham is nextAlastairMeeks said:The head of A&E at the Royal London Hospital was interviewed on Radio 4 this morning:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/london-attack-trauma-surgeon-malach-ramadan-van-bridge-borough-market-stabbing-victims-not-speak-a7772846.html
This bit leapt out to me:
"Dr Ramadhan said the reason so many people were able to come in and work was because they had been waiting for something like the attack to happen.
He said people working in trauma and emergency care had recently not been doing what they would usually do on a Saturday night.
“People are ready. The major trauma system in London has been preparing for something to happen" he explained. “So doctors like myself who might be going to Borough to see friends... on Saturday night we had a lot of people who were completely sober and ready to help the public"."
The quiet way in which some of our citizens give up part of their private life as a precaution for the rest of us is humbling.
- large muslim population
- disaffected young preferring C7 to C21
- all attacks have been started by locals
the grim betting is that Broad Street ( weekend funspot ) is most likely target0 -
She does look as if she has had a very hard paper round.TMA1 said:
What a sad bunch of twaterati you 3 are.Chameleon said:
She looks very grey and elderly now.SouthamObserver said:
She does seem to have aged considerably over the course of the campaign.OchEye said:Not being funny. Any Doctors around? Just watched May on the BBC news channel. Looking at her face and started wondering.... Considering the amount of stress she's been under recently, plus some one mentioned that she has diabetes....
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LOL, off a bus , talk to hand picked Tory slavering audience and back onto bus. Cushy number not ever meeting teh public and only having to mouth vacuous inanities.jonny83 said:
She had the Tory Rockstar Ruth with her today, that would have helpedperdix said:
TM's appearance in Scotland today showed her to be very relaxed. But running a campaign and overseeing the terror fight back is bound to be stressful. She can take it. The thing about Type 1 is to have iron discipline.SouthamObserver said:
She does seem to have aged considerably over the course of the campaign.OchEye said:Not being funny. Any Doctors around? Just watched May on the BBC news channel. Looking at her face and started wondering.... Considering the amount of stress she's been under recently, plus some one mentioned that she has diabetes....
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Theuniondivvie said:
A little wooden I thought..perdix said:
TM's appearance in Scotland today showed her to be very relaxed. But running a campaign and overseeing the terror fight back is bound to be stressful. She can take it. The thing about Type 1 is to have iron discipline.SouthamObserver said:
She does seem to have aged considerably over the course of the campaign.OchEye said:Not being funny. Any Doctors around? Just watched May on the BBC news channel. Looking at her face and started wondering.... Considering the amount of stress she's been under recently, plus some one mentioned that she has diabetes....
https://twitter.com/naebD/status/871758850717888512
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I can believe that politics is tribal for a lot of people, not everyone is a floating voter. I've also heard some awful stories of families breaking up from the Brexit vote.malcolmg said:
They might as well beBlack_Rook said:
There may be a lot of potential for the Shy Tory Problem to rear its ugly head again this time. Remember, the Conservatives are looking for gains in traditional Labour areas - in the Midlands, and especially up North - where there is a long cultural Labour tradition, and people can feel very embarrassed about owning up to their intention to vote Tory.Chameleon said:I'm completely split on how this election will go, firstly I seem to be seeing signs of the Con core slowly falling apart, but this is mostly in the safe shires, so if the polls are right then the Con majority should be greater than polls indicate. On the other hand, polls have massive weightings applied for shy Tories, what if there aren't as many as before? In which case gains could be an awful lot more limited.
Doubts? Read this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-voters-fear-friends-and-family-will-disown-them-for-switching-to-tories-huffpost-edelman-focus-group_uk_59205461e4b03b485cb1e86b
It's absolutely extraordinary. Some of these people sound as if they're confessing to a crime.0 -
ah you're back !malcolmg said:Theuniondivvie said:
A little wooden I thought..perdix said:
TM's appearance in Scotland today showed her to be very relaxed. But running a campaign and overseeing the terror fight back is bound to be stressful. She can take it. The thing about Type 1 is to have iron discipline.SouthamObserver said:
She does seem to have aged considerably over the course of the campaign.OchEye said:Not being funny. Any Doctors around? Just watched May on the BBC news channel. Looking at her face and started wondering.... Considering the amount of stress she's been under recently, plus some one mentioned that she has diabetes....
https://twitter.com/naebD/status/871758850717888512
I thought you were being sleekit and running away from our bet :-)0 -
malc's defected to the ToriesCasino_Royale said:
Sturgeon's motives may be slightly different, mother of the nation, no 'no go' areas etc, but perhaps her SNP data is showing her presence may make a difference in some areas.Alistair said:Still perplexed by Sturgeons multiple campaign stops in the South of Scotland. Sure she has to know they are gone gone gone.
I found it interesting she went to Ayr.
shes now desperate0 -
Tories have made such a hash of Ayr, run it into the ground.Casino_Royale said:
Sturgeon's motives may be slightly different, mother of the nation, no 'no go' areas etc, but perhaps her SNP data is showing her presence may make a difference in some areas.Alistair said:Still perplexed by Sturgeons multiple campaign stops in the South of Scotland. Sure she has to know they are gone gone gone.
I found it interesting she went to Ayr.0 -
For some strange reason I was banned yet again, got out early on parole.Alanbrooke said:
ah you're back !malcolmg said:Theuniondivvie said:
A little wooden I thought..perdix said:
TM's appearance in Scotland today showed her to be very relaxed. But running a campaign and overseeing the terror fight back is bound to be stressful. She can take it. The thing about Type 1 is to have iron discipline.SouthamObserver said:
She does seem to have aged considerably over the course of the campaign.OchEye said:Not being funny. Any Doctors around? Just watched May on the BBC news channel. Looking at her face and started wondering.... Considering the amount of stress she's been under recently, plus some one mentioned that she has diabetes....
https://twitter.com/naebD/status/871758850717888512
I thought you were being sleekit and running away from our bet :-)
PS: No baiting I am on best behaviour0 -
new threadmalcolmg said:
For some strange reason I was banned yet again, got out early on parole.Alanbrooke said:
ah you're back !malcolmg said:Theuniondivvie said:
A little wooden I thought..perdix said:
TM's appearance in Scotland today showed her to be very relaxed. But running a campaign and overseeing the terror fight back is bound to be stressful. She can take it. The thing about Type 1 is to have iron discipline.SouthamObserver said:
She does seem to have aged considerably over the course of the campaign.OchEye said:Not being funny. Any Doctors around? Just watched May on the BBC news channel. Looking at her face and started wondering.... Considering the amount of stress she's been under recently, plus some one mentioned that she has diabetes....
https://twitter.com/naebD/status/871758850717888512
I thought you were being sleekit and running away from our bet :-)
PS: No baiting I am on best behaviour
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Casino_Royale said:
Sturgeon's motives may be slightly different, mother of the nation, no 'no go' areas etc, but perhaps her SNP data is showing her presence may make a difference in some areas.Alistair said:Still perplexed by Sturgeons multiple campaign stops in the South of Scotland. Sure she has to know they are gone gone gone.
I found it interesting she went to Ayr.
A number of the pollsters weight by region, e.g. Survation, in the most recent poll the SNP's vote in the Borders/South Region is holding up pretty well, so the SNP are not giving up on these seats without a good fight.Black_Rook said:
You would have to assume that the two on the Border probably are. D&G, less so.Alistair said:Still perplexed by Sturgeons multiple campaign stops in the South of Scotland. Sure she has to know they are gone gone gone.
I don't see much of the details of the Scottish campaign from where I am, but I assume that she's been on manoeuvres in the North East as well? The Conservatives are the main enemy in this campaign: each loss to the Tories will slightly tip the balance - between Sturgeon insisting her demands for indyref2 are watertight, and May having the confidence to stonewall until 2021 - against the Scottish Government.
Fair to say Sturgeon has been pretty much all over - Holyrood is still in session which has curtailed her efforts to an extent.
Although SCON are set to win a number of seats, the SLAB surge fuelled by Corbyn , may well push them into 3rd in the National vote. The party to watch is probably the Lib Dems, they could well see their National vote fall below 5%, yet win nearly as many seats as SCON in the bizarre world of Scottish politics.0 -
Yup, an area I worked on a bit to see if some long odds Tory bets would be good but couldn't make work for me.Casino_Royale said:
Sturgeon's motives may be slightly different, mother of the nation, no 'no go' areas etc, but perhaps her SNP data is showing her presence may make a difference in some areas.Alistair said:Still perplexed by Sturgeons multiple campaign stops in the South of Scotland. Sure she has to know they are gone gone gone.
I found it interesting she went to Ayr.0
