politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Labour view as the campaign draws to a close
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Labour view as the campaign draws to a close
I was an eye witness to the last terror attack in London on March 24th. As walked into New Palace Yard at Westminster on that afternoon I heard one of the shots that killed Khalid Masood and saw him and his victim PC Keith Archer laying on the cobbles, before I was ushered indoors by security staff. . The following day in the Commons I was impressed at the way both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn rose to the occasion the following day. Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition captured a mood of national determination not to be cowed by terrorism.
Comments
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Frost.0
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What if I told you there was never going to be a landslide?0
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FTP.
Some people are overemphasizing TM's Type 1 Diabetes.
Only being diagnosed in 2012, she should expect a couple of decades without serious complications if her self-management is moderate or better.0 -
"They forced her to back down over the national insurance increase for the self employed" bring on the landslide if it means the headbangers are marginalised and sensible stuff like this can get through is all I can say.0
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This is really pathetic.0
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3rd!0
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How are we defining landslide? maj > 100? 120?grabcocque said:What if I told you there was never going to be a landslide?
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FPT Ishmael: the reason that you're not seeing Muslim authorities condemning the attacks in the strongest terms isthat you're not reading/viewing the media that bother to report it. Take e.g.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/attack-during-ramadan-shows-they-respect-neither-life-nor-faith-a3556406.html
What more can one expect them to say? And I expect the Government is pleased, but they can't force broadcasters and newspapers to carry it.0 -
Crikey!
If I'd have known a bit of name dropping-bum lickery was the way to get a thread published I would have... actually no I wouldn't0 -
Tory majority of 30/40, less chance of a hard Brexit.
All in all, good for the country.0 -
The prospect of a landslide’s now being averted
Pile on a 100+ Tory majority.0 -
The usual complications are blindness and foot amputations, not losing your marbles!!MattW said:FTP.
Some people are overemphasizing TM's Type 1 Diabetes.
Only being diagnosed in 2012, she should expect a couple of decades without serious complications if her self-management is moderate or better.0 -
I don't think top flight politicians are moved by opinion polls in GE campaigns. They know the game in the media and how the national campaign has little cross over to the ground game.0
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On thread, I pretty much agree with Don - I'll be delighted but surprised if we actually win, but the recovery from 20 points behind a month ago has been awesome, and I think Theresa's hope for a multiple blank cheque (let us negotiate something with unspecified priorities which will cost an unspecified amount which you'll pay for with unspecified tax rises) is going to be quite rightly denied.0
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FPT on police numbers: on the day of the Abbott/Ferrari pay 100 000 police officers £3.99 per year debacle, there was a very senior and switched-on cop on WATO saying that low numbers was not by 1m miles the main problem the police have. Sadly I can't remember why he said this and can't track him down online.0
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Conventionally a landslide is 100 gains.0
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What I would like them to say is "We apologise on behalf of the muslim community for what is being done in our name. We can understand why there might be a backlash, this violence must seem never ending. We cannot praise highly enough the tolerance of the non Islamic population"NickPalmer said:FPT Ishmael: the reason that you're not seeing Muslim authorities condemning the attacks in the strongest terms isthat you're not reading/viewing the media that bother to report it. Take e.g.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/attack-during-ramadan-shows-they-respect-neither-life-nor-faith-a3556406.html
What more can one expect them to say? And I expect the Government is pleased, but they can't force broadcasters and newspapers to carry it.
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So Thatcher never won a landslide.grabcocque said:Conventionally a landslide is 100 gains.
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Michael CrickVerified account @MichaelLCrick
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?
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It'll be interesting to see what happens to Labour's polling after the election. Will they drop back to their lows in the mid twenties where they were before the campaign and before tactical voting or will 35% be their starting point for the next term?0
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Preparing the ground for...
"Brave Corbyn's amazing campaign means TM only has an increased majority and 2 more years in power"
Hilarious.0 -
"The prospect of a landslide’s now being averted"
Famous last words from The Don...0 -
Sheryll Murray, Tory candidate in South East Cornwall says she is "really pleased" about the existence of foodbanks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8aRD9DNDsI0 -
I'd have thought they could be on a solid 40 or so quite quickly if they find leader that can appeal to places like Nuneaton.Artist said:It'll be interesting to see what happens to Labour's polling after the election. Will they drop back to their lows in the mid twenties where they were before the campaign and before tactical voting or will 35% be their starting point for the next term?
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Yes Corbyn has had a better campaign than expected. I suspect the Tories left him on his own to detonate but are surprised it hasn't happened. I expect they've been massively focused at the local level (digital as well) on the swing seats with either or high available UKIP votes, lots of leavers vs labour majorities and older folk. Given they should kick on somewhat from the recent local elections, they have every chance of a quiet landslide.
However, what is all this continual BS about "hard Brexit"? The EU commission want to kick the UK to pieces to discourage the others. Do you really think Corbyn's cups of tea and strongly worded letters or Stammers clever legal speak will have any effect at all?
But then again for Labour another £100bn of spending on a divorce bill is just more not real borrowing.0 -
Right I've made a coplaint to the evening standard regarding this story:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/mosques-and-muslim-leaders-united-in-disgust-after-london-bridge-terror-attack-a3556676.html
I couldn't find it at all on their website except through google. I want to know what their response is.0 -
Excellent, obviously more going on than I thought. I think it should be front page on the Beeb/Sky websites, but as you say it's their decision.NickPalmer said:FPT Ishmael: the reason that you're not seeing Muslim authorities condemning the attacks in the strongest terms isthat you're not reading/viewing the media that bother to report it. Take e.g.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/attack-during-ramadan-shows-they-respect-neither-life-nor-faith-a3556406.html
What more can one expect them to say? And I expect the Government is pleased, but they can't force broadcasters and newspapers to carry it.0 -
I'm not convinced by Don's thesis that a narrow Conservative victory will make it possible for centrist Tory MPs to win a soft Brexit.
It seems more likely that TM will have to bow to the right wing of the party, and implement a hard Brexit, in order to get a secure majority. Today's Conservative Party has many more Essex hard-Brexiteers than Nottinghamshire Euro-enthusiasts.
So the irony may be that a Labour surge leads to a harder Brexit.0 -
My dream is no majority for anyone and Conservatives and Labour in a grand coalition! I had better wake up now.0
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Tories looking at a landslide?!0
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But German car manufacturers! But trade deficit! But it's our party and we'll cry if we want to!saddo said:Yes Corbyn has had a better campaign than expected. I suspect the Tories left him on his own to detonate but are surprised it hasn't happened. I expect they've been massively focused at the local level (digital as well) on the swing seats with either or high available UKIP votes, lots of leavers vs labour majorities and older folk. Given they should kick on somewhat from the recent local elections, they have every chance of a quiet landslide.
However, what is all this continual BS about "hard Brexit"? The EU commission want to kick the UK to pieces to discourage the others. Do you really think Corbyn's cups of tea and strongly worded letters or Stammers clever legal speak will have any effect at all? .0 -
They alsofeature a story prominently claiming he was praying behind the IS flag. They clearly can't find anyone in the whole of London who can read Arabic. Poor journalism from them but then again their editor must be piss poor.nunu said:Right I've made a coplaint to the evening standard regarding this story:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/mosques-and-muslim-leaders-united-in-disgust-after-london-bridge-terror-attack-a3556676.html
I couldn't find it at all on their website except through google. I want to know what their response is.0 -
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/871776897415434244
OGH will already have posted this alternative approach I'm sure
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/8714426843340226580 -
Needn't be defensive, why should they not have calculated that he is better on tv than in real life and the best news footage of him is of him at Momentum rally type events giving it large to the converted? Video clips capable of viralisation are the weapon of choice in this campaign.TGOHF said:Michael CrickVerified account @MichaelLCrick
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?0 -
A cunning artistic stunt might backfire.
http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/update/2017-06-05/police-investigating-offer-of-limited-edition-banksy-print-for-anti-tory-votes/0 -
Ok, who on PB admits to being a Coldplay fan...
@BilHod: Liam Gallagher once called Chris Martin a "geography teacher who makes music for bedwetters." @ArianaGrande to sort Brexit negotiations next0 -
Owen Smith is neck and neck with Corbyn in the Labour leadership battle.
That is all you need to know re the wisdom of the author. Pathetic.0 -
Don Brind says a Tory landslide has been averted, perhaps May might actually get that 100 seat majority after all?0
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Yes, the Tory targeting is pretty obvious to me that they are going after the areas of UKIP/Leave. I think they Tories will also win a landslide. I still think Corbyn is a real problem for many voters and this is what will ensure the Tory landslide. I don't believe in the picture opinion polls paint during General Election campaigns as I have said many times previously.saddo said:Yes Corbyn has had a better campaign than expected. I suspect the Tories left him on his own to detonate but are surprised it hasn't happened. I expect they've been massively focused at the local level (digital as well) on the swing seats with either or high available UKIP votes, lots of leavers vs labour majorities and older folk. Given they should kick on somewhat from the recent local elections, they have every chance of a quiet landslide.
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Do we have any proof that they actually work?Ishmael_Z said:
Needn't be defensive, why should they not have calculated that he is better on tv than in real life and the best news footage of him is of him at Momentum rally type events giving it large to the converted? Video clips capable of viralisation are the weapon of choice in this campaign.TGOHF said:Michael CrickVerified account @MichaelLCrick
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?0 -
We'll find out on Thursday!BannedInParis said:
Do we have any proof that they actually work?Ishmael_Z said:
Needn't be defensive, why should they not have calculated that he is better on tv than in real life and the best news footage of him is of him at Momentum rally type events giving it large to the converted? Video clips capable of viralisation are the weapon of choice in this campaign.TGOHF said:Michael CrickVerified account @MichaelLCrick
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?0 -
Interesting insight. Looking forward to the Tory, UKIP, LD and SNP threads when they're published.0
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Hanrettys latest LD forecasts look grim reading for the yellow peril
electionforecast.co.uk/tables/LD_seat_losses.html0 -
Quite.Gallowgate said:
We'll find out on Thursday!BannedInParis said:
Do we have any proof that they actually work?Ishmael_Z said:
Needn't be defensive, why should they not have calculated that he is better on tv than in real life and the best news footage of him is of him at Momentum rally type events giving it large to the converted? Video clips capable of viralisation are the weapon of choice in this campaign.TGOHF said:Michael CrickVerified account @MichaelLCrick
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?0 -
LOLZAPhilip_Thompson said:Interesting insight. Looking forward to the Tory, UKIP, LD and SNP threads when they're published.
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My Devon relatives, politically involved, not of the same persuasion as myself say that Nick Harvey will probably take back North Devon. We will see.0
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Saw them at Wembley last year, best stadium band by far. Brilliant musicians, some great songs, Fix You probably already a classicScott_P said:Ok, who on PB admits to being a Coldplay fan...
@BilHod: Liam Gallagher once called Chris Martin a "geography teacher who makes music for bedwetters." @ArianaGrande to sort Brexit negotiations next0 -
Surely he could equally be argued a majority of 100 gives May room to avoid being boxed in by anti EU rebels?0
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'Likely Conservative' on YouGov. Interesting.theakes said:My Devon relatives, politically involved, not of the same persuasion as myself say that Nick Harvey will probably take back North Devon. We will see.
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Coldplay fan who also saw them at Wembley.. easily the most impressive show I've ever seen. How many bands can play over twenty songs at a concert?0
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In the eyes of the public though it is a majority of 100+ ie Attlee 1945, Macmillan 1959, Thatcher 1983 and 1987 and Blair 1997 and 2001grabcocque said:Conventionally a landslide is 100 gains.
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FPT
If anything we haven't reacted enough. Or we have reacted in a very passive way - all those candles and lighting up of buildings. All very lovely but some righteous anger is needed also and some focused action. So concerned have we been not to blame others for the actions of terrorists (a good thing on the whole) that we have (wrongly) shied away from asking the hard questions of Muslims as to whether there is or might be something within Islam or the Islamic world view which has been one of the causes of what is happening. That self-criticism needs to happen. And it needs to be seen to happen. By not asking these tough questions or by muttering the pointless platitude of this having nothing to do with Islam when plainly it has something to do with it, however misguidedly, the ground has been ceded to the extremists who present a seductively persuasive case based on misreadings of the Koran that violent jihad is essential to being a good Muslim. Revolting and doubtless inaccurate. But if not challenged and in detail by those who understand the Koran better than the jihadis why would a young man not believe that?
Bad ideas can only be defeated by presenting better ideas not by refusing to engage in the argument at all. But that, in essence, what has happened for the last decades. The bad ideas of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hizb-ut-Tahir and IS and Al Qaeda and others have not been challenged. Rather those Muslims who have tried to do so have been howled down and attacked and sometimes put in fear of their lives.
Challenge Saudi Arabia. But challenge the Deobandi mosques in this country too. They are pretty hard line too. Challenge the mosques which talk about tolerance on the one hand (tolerance for themselves) but host hate preachers preaching intolerance towards others on the other. Above all, challenge the endless bloody victim mentality that too many Muslim community leaders (or so-called leaders) adopt almost as an automatic reflex as a way of deflecting any responsibility at all for why their young men and women turn to the most violent possible interpretation or misinterpretation of their religion or any responsibility for ensuring that this does not happen. We should surely expect more than just simple condemnation of appalling crimes, welcome as that is. Terrorist fish need a sea to swim in. On the whole they don't just come from nowhere.0 -
I understand that the Labour internal polling is showing some terrible figuresThe_Taxman said:
Yes, the Tory targeting is pretty obvious to me that they are going after the areas of UKIP/Leave. I think they Tories will also win a landslide. I still think Corbyn is a real problem for many voters and this is what will ensure the Tory landslide. I don't believe in the picture opinion polls paint during General Election campaigns as I have said many times previously.saddo said:Yes Corbyn has had a better campaign than expected. I suspect the Tories left him on his own to detonate but are surprised it hasn't happened. I expect they've been massively focused at the local level (digital as well) on the swing seats with either or high available UKIP votes, lots of leavers vs labour majorities and older folk. Given they should kick on somewhat from the recent local elections, they have every chance of a quiet landslide.
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That will be very interesting for the new Home Secretary on Friday but whatever it was, Labour will say it was cut by Theresa May and the Conservatives will say Theresa May funded an even better variant of it and the pb Tories will say it was all Gordon Brown's fault.Ishmael_Z said:FPT on police numbers: on the day of the Abbott/Ferrari pay 100 000 police officers £3.99 per year debacle, there was a very senior and switched-on cop on WATO saying that low numbers was not by 1m miles the main problem the police have. Sadly I can't remember why he said this and can't track him down online.
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Excellent newsPrinceofTaranto said:
I understand that the Labour internal polling is showing some terrible figuresThe_Taxman said:
Yes, the Tory targeting is pretty obvious to me that they are going after the areas of UKIP/Leave. I think they Tories will also win a landslide. I still think Corbyn is a real problem for many voters and this is what will ensure the Tory landslide. I don't believe in the picture opinion polls paint during General Election campaigns as I have said many times previously.saddo said:Yes Corbyn has had a better campaign than expected. I suspect the Tories left him on his own to detonate but are surprised it hasn't happened. I expect they've been massively focused at the local level (digital as well) on the swing seats with either or high available UKIP votes, lots of leavers vs labour majorities and older folk. Given they should kick on somewhat from the recent local elections, they have every chance of a quiet landslide.
.0 -
Given the overwhelming majority of comments on the site are from Tories there is no need. Don provides a touch of balance.Philip_Thompson said:Interesting insight. Looking forward to the Tory, UKIP, LD and SNP threads when they're published.
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This campaign has been strange in that Corbyn is everywhere in his own words, rather than only ever hearing about him in the context of 'Labour MP says Corbyn is a bastard'. Makes you wonder what the situation would have been like if Labour MPs hadn't constantly been slagging him off in the media over the last two years and had worked with him to reform the party to make it fit for purpose, rather than skulking around waiting for a weak moment to pounce.
I'm sure on Friday we'll be back to normal, and there'll be yet another bloody leadership election in September.0 -
Lol! There are plenty of Labour posters on here. Whether they hang around after 22:00 on Thursday night is another matter.MikeSmithson said:
Given the overwhelming majority of comments on the site are from Tories there is no need. Don provides a touch of balance.Philip_Thompson said:Interesting insight. Looking forward to the Tory, UKIP, LD and SNP threads when they're published.
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I PMd you earlier just seen you repliedPulpstar said:
I'd have thought they could be on a solid 40 or so quite quickly if they find leader that can appeal to places like Nuneaton.Artist said:It'll be interesting to see what happens to Labour's polling after the election. Will they drop back to their lows in the mid twenties where they were before the campaign and before tactical voting or will 35% be their starting point for the next term?
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I have a theory on the youth impact on polling and the potential for it to influence the result.
In crude terms we can split that age group into two different groups, roughly equal. One half is slightly more intelligent, more engaged with politics, willing to take part in polls and likes the freebies on offer. The other group is the opposite and maybe if labour had offered a free I phone upgrade each year or an x box they might have been motivated to vote. Yes there is great enthusiasm withinin the first group for Corbyn and they may well vote but it will not have an impact or alter the other group. Why does that change over time? Well with age comes responsibility and a need to increasingly engage in politics for self interest. I don't know if the pollsters look at other demographics in each age group in their VI predicitions but I expect the 18 -30 age group will register a slightly higher turnout but not enough to change the outcome. If it gets above 55-60% I would be surprised.0 -
More PV opening.SquareRoot said:
Excellent newsPrinceofTaranto said:
I understand that the Labour internal polling is showing some terrible figuresThe_Taxman said:
Yes, the Tory targeting is pretty obvious to me that they are going after the areas of UKIP/Leave. I think they Tories will also win a landslide. I still think Corbyn is a real problem for many voters and this is what will ensure the Tory landslide. I don't believe in the picture opinion polls paint during General Election campaigns as I have said many times previously.saddo said:Yes Corbyn has had a better campaign than expected. I suspect the Tories left him on his own to detonate but are surprised it hasn't happened. I expect they've been massively focused at the local level (digital as well) on the swing seats with either or high available UKIP votes, lots of leavers vs labour majorities and older folk. Given they should kick on somewhat from the recent local elections, they have every chance of a quiet landslide.
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Alas she is utterly safe. Re Nick Harvey I don't know any LibDems believing he will win but three months ago I would have said that was the best bet. North Cornwall seems to be getting the most positive attention.Cyan said:Sheryll Murray, Tory candidate in South East Cornwall says she is "really pleased" about the existence of foodbanks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8aRD9DNDsI0 -
Don Brind, you may believe the left wing claptrap in your article, I recognise very little of it.0
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I think the last survey of how PB posters voted in 2015 had it pretty similar to the UK as a whole but with slightly more LDs and slightly fewer UKIP votersMikeSmithson said:
Given the overwhelming majority of comments on the site are from Tories there is no need. Don provides a touch of balance.Philip_Thompson said:Interesting insight. Looking forward to the Tory, UKIP, LD and SNP threads when they're published.
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I hope OGH didn't waste too many stamps on letters to Cornwall voters
https://twitter.com/JamesTapsfield/status/8717807798813532170 -
And how many great tunes did they leave out.JonWC said:Coldplay fan who also saw them at Wembley.. easily the most impressive show I've ever seen. How many bands can play over twenty songs at a concert?
Acoustic part from LA https://youtu.be/mak_Cu9Wl6w
Enjoy all!
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Because they'll be busy quaffing champagne by the bucket load?tlg86 said:
Lol! There are plenty of Labour posters on here. Whether they hang around after 22:00 on Thursday night is another matter.MikeSmithson said:
Given the overwhelming majority of comments on the site are from Tories there is no need. Don provides a touch of balance.Philip_Thompson said:Interesting insight. Looking forward to the Tory, UKIP, LD and SNP threads when they're published.
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Ah Nick: I thought you might join me in my lonely eyrie as someone prepared to say that Corbyn might just do it.NickPalmer said:On thread, I pretty much agree with Don - I'll be delighted but surprised if we actually win, but the recovery from 20 points behind a month ago has been awesome, and I think Theresa's hope for a multiple blank cheque (let us negotiate something with unspecified priorities which will cost an unspecified amount which you'll pay for with unspecified tax rises) is going to be quite rightly denied.
Have absolutely no model or basis for this. Only that when someone surprises on the upside, does not fall over or make any appalling gaffes and appears reasonable (however unjustifiable in reality this may be), their opponent does the opposite and the mood is for change, then strange (and to me unwelcome) things can happen.0 -
Looks like the tories will hold onto their 2015 cornwall seats...Scrapheap_as_was said:I hope OGH didn't waste too many stamps on letters to Cornwall voters
https://twitter.com/JamesTapsfield/status/8717807798813532170 -
I still make a nice profit of a 100 seat majority. It needs to be 138+ for me to start losingHYUFD said:Don Brind says a Tory landslide has been averted, perhaps May might actually get that 100 seat majority after all?
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Or they are already in the bag?Razedabode said:
Looks like the tories will hold onto their 2015 cornwall seats...Scrapheap_as_was said:I hope OGH didn't waste too many stamps on letters to Cornwall voters
https://twitter.com/JamesTapsfield/status/871780779881353217
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Possibly two. Is Theresa May's heart still in it or will she bow out on a win?Winstanley said:This campaign has been strange in that Corbyn is everywhere in his own words, rather than only ever hearing about him in the context of 'Labour MP says Corbyn is a bastard'. Makes you wonder what the situation would have been like if Labour MPs hadn't constantly been slagging him off in the media over the last two years and had worked with him to reform the party to make it fit for purpose, rather than skulking around waiting for a weak moment to pounce.
I'm sure on Friday we'll be back to normal, and there'll be yet another bloody leadership election in September.0 -
Which survey was that?HYUFD said:
I think the last survey of how PB posters voted in 2015 had it pretty similar to the UK as a whole but with slightly more LDs and slightly fewer UKIP votersMikeSmithson said:
Given the overwhelming majority of comments on the site are from Tories there is no need. Don provides a touch of balance.Philip_Thompson said:Interesting insight. Looking forward to the Tory, UKIP, LD and SNP threads when they're published.
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No, we can only go by intuition. But complete radio silence (or what you'd think was complete radio silence from a cursory look at the news) is not a good way of building trust and sympathy between non-fanatical muslims and the wider world and engendering peer pressure among muslims against nutters.BannedInParis said:
Do we have any proof that they actually work?Ishmael_Z said:
Needn't be defensive, why should they not have calculated that he is better on tv than in real life and the best news footage of him is of him at Momentum rally type events giving it large to the converted? Video clips capable of viralisation are the weapon of choice in this campaign.TGOHF said:Michael CrickVerified account @MichaelLCrick
Today Corbyn is visiting 4 Labour seats in North East. The average Lab majority in the seats is 9,084, or 22.9%. Why is Labour so defensive?0 -
I believe PB consensus at least at the beginning was in the 60-80 range, then people got overexcited. Obviously some were and some still are predicting a landslide, and some never did.grabcocque said:What if I told you there was never going to be a landslide?
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Lab in Cambourne and Redruth at 40/1 with Bet365 if you really believe that Corbynism is sweeping the nation and LDs falling flat.Razedabode said:
Looks like the tories will hold onto their 2015 cornwall seats...Scrapheap_as_was said:I hope OGH didn't waste too many stamps on letters to Cornwall voters
https://twitter.com/JamesTapsfield/status/8717807798813532170 -
No wonder they backed Jahadi Jez...SeanT said:If you want your blood boiled a bit more, by the British Left
twitter.com/thomasknox/status/871769672911384576
It's from this article. Just mindboggling.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/05/london-bridge-attack-lucky-cannot-unsee-what-i-saw0 -
I agree, but a NOC parliament is not so implausible.SeanT said:
There hasn't been one poll showing Corbyn with a plurality of seats, let alone a majority.Cyclefree said:
Ah Nick: I thought you might join me in my lonely eyrie as someone prepared to say that Corbyn might just do it.NickPalmer said:On thread, I pretty much agree with Don - I'll be delighted but surprised if we actually win, but the recovery from 20 points behind a month ago has been awesome, and I think Theresa's hope for a multiple blank cheque (let us negotiate something with unspecified priorities which will cost an unspecified amount which you'll pay for with unspecified tax rises) is going to be quite rightly denied.
Have absolutely no model or basis for this. Only that when someone surprises on the upside, does not fall over or make any appalling gaffes and appears reasonable (however unjustifiable in reality this may be), their opponent does the opposite and the mood is for change, then strange (and to me unwelcome) things can happen.
If he becomes PM it will be the biggest polling failure in the history of modern western politics.0 -
Only if it is real, Nick, otherwise it will have been a cruel trick on you.NickPalmer said:the recovery from 20 points behind a month ago has been awesome,.
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Well I think a hard brexit is pretty baked in now no matter what anyone wants, but the basic premise that there are more hardliners than euro enthusiasts is true, and so TMay is likely to be more reliant on them.El_Capitano said:I'm not convinced by Don's thesis that a narrow Conservative victory will make it possible for centrist Tory MPs to win a soft Brexit.
It seems more likely that TM will have to bow to the right wing of the party, and implement a hard Brexit, in order to get a secure majority. Today's Conservative Party has many more Essex hard-Brexiteers than Nottinghamshire Euro-enthusiasts.
So the irony may be that a Labour surge leads to a harder Brexit.0 -
When Jezza gets the anti-terrorist report....
Need drones - No you can't have those
We need continue shoot to kill - Sorry nope
We need more manpower at MI5 / MI6 - Sorry we are disbanding that
More SAS in big cities - No they are killers of my friends.
...
I am going spend all the money saved on a massive fleet of subs, but they will be totally unarmed.0 -
If the polls were still showing 20 point leads and she had done everything exactly as she has done we'd all be calling her a genius who has made brave, difficult decisions in the national interest and is getting rewarded for it, so I dunno. It's quite exciting to see what actually happens on Thursday, because it will strongly colour how we remember this whole campaign in retrospect.DecrepitJohnL said:
Possibly two. Is Theresa May's heart still in it or will she bow out on a win?Winstanley said:This campaign has been strange in that Corbyn is everywhere in his own words, rather than only ever hearing about him in the context of 'Labour MP says Corbyn is a bastard'. Makes you wonder what the situation would have been like if Labour MPs hadn't constantly been slagging him off in the media over the last two years and had worked with him to reform the party to make it fit for purpose, rather than skulking around waiting for a weak moment to pounce.
I'm sure on Friday we'll be back to normal, and there'll be yet another bloody leadership election in September.
I can't see the government wanting to delay the Brexit talks by a leadership election (which I guess they'd have to, to wait and see what the new PM's priorities were?), and I doubt the Tories would want a repeat of their last 'election' that saddled them with an intested May so it wouldn't be over quickly I shouldn't think.0 -
Are you saying that Tory MPs would vote through tax rises specially to pay a Brexit bill? I'd have thought Benjamin Netanyahu is more likely to come out for Jezza myself but it takes all sorts..NickPalmer said:On thread, I pretty much agree with Don - I'll be delighted but surprised if we actually win, but the recovery from 20 points behind a month ago has been awesome, and I think Theresa's hope for a multiple blank cheque (let us negotiate something with unspecified priorities which will cost an unspecified amount which you'll pay for with unspecified tax rises) is going to be quite rightly denied.
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It is fantastically British to find humour in the saddest of events. An excellent effort Don.0
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I remember it. We LDs were a little overrepresented.MikeSmithson said:
Which survey was that?HYUFD said:
I think the last survey of how PB posters voted in 2015 had it pretty similar to the UK as a whole but with slightly more LDs and slightly fewer UKIP votersMikeSmithson said:
Given the overwhelming majority of comments on the site are from Tories there is no need. Don provides a touch of balance.Philip_Thompson said:Interesting insight. Looking forward to the Tory, UKIP, LD and SNP threads when they're published.
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If he were to win then nobody knows anything as there has been no sign of it happening prior to the election, and loads of evidence against it, and so requires masses of non-voters, surges in Labour support, collapse of Tory voters in key groups, and just generally loads of switchers in a very short space of time.Cyclefree said:
Ah Nick: I thought you might join me in my lonely eyrie as someone prepared to say that Corbyn might just do it.NickPalmer said:On thread, I pretty much agree with Don - I'll be delighted but surprised if we actually win, but the recovery from 20 points behind a month ago has been awesome, and I think Theresa's hope for a multiple blank cheque (let us negotiate something with unspecified priorities which will cost an unspecified amount which you'll pay for with unspecified tax rises) is going to be quite rightly denied.
Have absolutely no model or basis for this. Only that when someone surprises on the upside, does not fall over or make any appalling gaffes and appears reasonable (however unjustifiable in reality this may be), their opponent does the opposite and the mood is for change, then strange (and to me unwelcome) things can happen.
I never rule anything out, but that would be so strange.0 -
no comments allowed obviously.SeanT said:If you want your blood boiled a bit more, by the British Left
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/871769672911384576
It's from this article. Just mindboggling.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/05/london-bridge-attack-lucky-cannot-unsee-what-i-saw
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The good old days, did partake before 2015 but had to change my email address but I remember the good old days of 2005foxinsoxuk said:
I remember it. We LDs were a little overrepresented.MikeSmithson said:
Which survey was that?HYUFD said:
I think the last survey of how PB posters voted in 2015 had it pretty similar to the UK as a whole but with slightly more LDs and slightly fewer UKIP votersMikeSmithson said:
Given the overwhelming majority of comments on the site are from Tories there is no need. Don provides a touch of balance.Philip_Thompson said:Interesting insight. Looking forward to the Tory, UKIP, LD and SNP threads when they're published.
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I saw them once, at some festival or other. Liam was right, but they are too anodyne to hate.saddo said:
Saw them at Wembley last year, best stadium band by far. Brilliant musicians, some great songs, Fix You probably already a classicScott_P said:Ok, who on PB admits to being a Coldplay fan...
@BilHod: Liam Gallagher once called Chris Martin a "geography teacher who makes music for bedwetters." @ArianaGrande to sort Brexit negotiations next
Kasabian are the best stadium band by a mile.0 -
I can't remember exactly but as Foxinsox says it had PB Tories a shade under 40% and PB Labour around 30%, PB LDs were around 10% and PB UKIP in single figures (Plus of course the Nats like Scotslass and MalcG)MikeSmithson said:
Which survey was that?HYUFD said:
I think the last survey of how PB posters voted in 2015 had it pretty similar to the UK as a whole but with slightly more LDs and slightly fewer UKIP votersMikeSmithson said:
Given the overwhelming majority of comments on the site are from Tories there is no need. Don provides a touch of balance.Philip_Thompson said:Interesting insight. Looking forward to the Tory, UKIP, LD and SNP threads when they're published.
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As I said on the previous thread, I hope to be wrong and if I am you can all point and laugh at me.SeanT said:
There hasn't been one poll showing Corbyn with a plurality of seats, let alone a majority.Cyclefree said:
Ah Nick: I thought you might join me in my lonely eyrie as someone prepared to say that Corbyn might just do it.NickPalmer said:On thread, I pretty much agree with Don - I'll be delighted but surprised if we actually win, but the recovery from 20 points behind a month ago has been awesome, and I think Theresa's hope for a multiple blank cheque (let us negotiate something with unspecified priorities which will cost an unspecified amount which you'll pay for with unspecified tax rises) is going to be quite rightly denied.
Have absolutely no model or basis for this. Only that when someone surprises on the upside, does not fall over or make any appalling gaffes and appears reasonable (however unjustifiable in reality this may be), their opponent does the opposite and the mood is for change, then strange (and to me unwelcome) things can happen.
If he becomes PM it will be the biggest polling failure in the history of modern western politics.
Too many unexpected and strange things have been happening in politics in recent years to be entirely comfortable.
And even if the Tories win, even if they win big, really, has anyone been impressed by how May - and the rest of the Cabinet - have conducted themselves? Anyone?
Corbyn has lied, Abbott has behaved like a very slow dim 4 year old, McDonnell - yuk - but they've all been remarkably focused on making some sort of case for voting Labour, however away with the fairies that case might be.
Whereas as far as Brexit is concerned, we're no wiser now than 7 weeks ago at what May will do or ask for or say when she sits down in 9 days time with EU negotiators. So what will it all have been for, then? What mandate will anyone have given her?
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Is there any evidence that TMay wants a hard Brexit? Sure she's talking tough for the gallery but I have no idea what her idea of the best Brexit might be. And maybe that's part of the problem because it allows her opponents to paint her views with their own brush.HYUFD said:Surely he could equally be argued a majority of 100 gives May room to avoid being boxed in by anti EU rebels?
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As soon as it was defined in terms of 'hard Brexit' or 'soft Brexit', hard Brexit was going to win surely whatever it means in practice. Leavers would feel fobbed off if they ended up with something called a 'soft Brexit', whatever it was.kle4 said:
Well I think a hard brexit is pretty baked in now no matter what anyone wants, but the basic premise that there are more hardliners than euro enthusiasts is true, and so TMay is likely to be more reliant on them.El_Capitano said:I'm not convinced by Don's thesis that a narrow Conservative victory will make it possible for centrist Tory MPs to win a soft Brexit.
It seems more likely that TM will have to bow to the right wing of the party, and implement a hard Brexit, in order to get a secure majority. Today's Conservative Party has many more Essex hard-Brexiteers than Nottinghamshire Euro-enthusiasts.
So the irony may be that a Labour surge leads to a harder Brexit.0 -
If May wins by any margin then she is probably safe; if she manages something similar to Thatcher in 1979 (i.e. a majority in the 40s) then she's certainly safe, although her authority may be impaired.Winstanley said:
If the polls were still showing 20 point leads and she had done everything exactly as she has done we'd all be calling her a genius who has made brave, difficult decisions in the national interest and is getting rewarded for it, so I dunno. It's quite exciting to see what actually happens on Thursday, because it will strongly colour how we remember this whole campaign in retrospect.DecrepitJohnL said:
Possibly two. Is Theresa May's heart still in it or will she bow out on a win?Winstanley said:This campaign has been strange in that Corbyn is everywhere in his own words, rather than only ever hearing about him in the context of 'Labour MP says Corbyn is a bastard'. Makes you wonder what the situation would have been like if Labour MPs hadn't constantly been slagging him off in the media over the last two years and had worked with him to reform the party to make it fit for purpose, rather than skulking around waiting for a weak moment to pounce.
I'm sure on Friday we'll be back to normal, and there'll be yet another bloody leadership election in September.
I can't see the government wanting to delay the Brexit talks by a leadership election (which I guess they'd have to, to wait and see what the new PM's priorities were?), and I doubt the Tories would want a repeat of their last 'election' that saddled them with an intested May so it wouldn't be over quickly I shouldn't think.
The Tories won't want Mrs May gone until after Brexit. My own take on this is that they'll want her to own it, act as a lightning rod for all the discontents that it may create, and then chuck her overboard and install a fresh new face in time for 2022. The Tories are very efficient at regicide.
As for the Con vote share lead, if it's anywhere at all in double figures then Labour should be reduced to sub-200 seats for the first time since the War, and everyone will probably conclude that the polls taken in the run-up to the election were overstating likely Conservative support. That is, the narrowing in the campaign period was a simple result of the main Opposition getting more media exposure, and of people actually having to take sides in choosing a Government (except in Scotland and Northern Ireland, where the motivating factors are altogether different,) rather than making theoretical choices about their ideal preferred party.
Under such circumstances, it could be plausibly argued that the details of the campaigns themselves made little difference to the final outcome, which was determined by predictable longer-term factors.0 -
If she gets a majority of 100 and then promptly makes Ben Gummer Brexit Secretary and replaces Boris with Davis as the Times has suggested it may indeed be she is more willing to compromise with the EU than first appeared before the electionpaulyork64 said:
Is there any evidence that TMay wants a hard Brexit? Sure she's talking tough for the gallery but I have no idea what her idea of the best Brexit might be. And maybe that's part of the problem because it allows her opponents to paint her views with their own brush.HYUFD said:Surely he could equally be argued a majority of 100 gives May room to avoid being boxed in by anti EU rebels?
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Very true. When she wins she won't be able to claim that she has achieved any sort of mandate for anything to do with Brexit.Cyclefree said:
As I said on the previous thread, I hope to be wrong and if I am you can all point and laugh at me.SeanT said:
There hasn't been one poll showing Corbyn with a plurality of seats, let alone a majority.Cyclefree said:
Ah Nick: I thought you might join me in my lonely eyrie as someone prepared to say that Corbyn might just do it.NickPalmer said:On thread, I pretty much agree with Don - I'll be delighted but surprised if we actually win, but the recovery from 20 points behind a month ago has been awesome, and I think Theresa's hope for a multiple blank cheque (let us negotiate something with unspecified priorities which will cost an unspecified amount which you'll pay for with unspecified tax rises) is going to be quite rightly denied.
Have absolutely no model or basis for this. Only that when someone surprises on the upside, does not fall over or make any appalling gaffes and appears reasonable (however unjustifiable in reality this may be), their opponent does the opposite and the mood is for change, then strange (and to me unwelcome) things can happen.
If he becomes PM it will be the biggest polling failure in the history of modern western politics.
Too many unexpected and strange things have been happening in politics in recent years to be entirely comfortable.
And even if the Tories win, even if they win big, really, has anyone been impressed by how May - and the rest of the Cabinet - have conducted themselves? Anyone?
Corbyn has lied, Abbott has behaved like a very slow dim 4 year old, McDonnell - yuk - but they've all been remarkably focused on making some sort of case for voting Labour, however away with the fairies that case might be.
Whereas as far as Brexit is concerned, we're no wiser now than 7 weeks ago at what May will do or ask for or say when she sits down in 9 days time with EU negotiators. So what will it all have been for, then? What mandate will anyone have given her?0
