politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not Y
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No. A good model ought to be good at predicting surprises AND non-surprises. If you're predicting black swans simply by claiming every other swan will be black, that's not impressive at all. The quality of any model is really about hits AND correct rejections.Scott_P said:
If YouGov correctly predict a number of "surprising" results, while still getting the overall total wildly wrong, is that a win for them or not?AlastairMeeks said:I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
You can make a good career as a media talking head by making lots of rather unlikely predictions on the basis that a small handful will be correct and you can shout, "there, see, I told you I was right" (while keeping quiet about all the predictions you made that didn't turn out). But it doesn't make you a sage, it makes you a charlatan.0 -
a crowd of 100 people / surprised the police managed to control itNickPalmer said:
Jez we arejonny83 said:YouGov is all based on the assumption we will see that the youth will turnout like never before (or for a long long time). Something that very much has to be seen to be believed.
If the Youth of this country were holding mass Obama style rallies across the country backing Labour and Corbyn then I would have to buy into it.
But we aren't so I just can't see it, we would be seeing a lot more signs of it if it was on the cards, more than just polling found by these companies.
See e.g.
http://www.nottinghampost.com/hundreds-of-people-turn-out-to-see-jeremy-corbyn-in-beeston/story-30369802-detail/story.html
(I'm on the picture in the second row, just behind him - fame at last etc.)0 -
I'd expect that as the EU have already indicated that a Corbyn government would be given extra time to negotiate Brexit, that Nicola would kick IndyRef2 into the longer grass but wouldn't take it off the table completely pending how Corbyn fares in the negotiations.Cyan said:
@Calum - if Labour form the next government, whether with or without a majority, they will try to keep Britain in the single market and the customs union. Will Nicola Sturgeon then withdraw the request for a referendum, or at least put it on hold?calum said:Losers lament !
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/8717201635314237440 -
I saw she proposed a change and Jezbollah and his team voted against en massbigjohnowls said:
Have you seen Mays record?Floater said:
Which anti terror legislation did Jezbollah vote for?bigjohnowls said:
So what What has May done over the last 7 years, she has been in chargeFloater said:
May let known terrorists pop back and forth to known ISIS area of Libya and then kill all those innocents in Manchester.
Mays record on cuts to vital services has made us all less safe too.
Now, which anti terror legislation did our ira loving Labour leadership team vote for0 -
Are you follically challenged as well Nick?NickPalmer said:
Jez we arejonny83 said:YouGov is all based on the assumption we will see that the youth will turnout like never before (or for a long long time). Something that very much has to be seen to be believed.
If the Youth of this country were holding mass Obama style rallies across the country backing Labour and Corbyn then I would have to buy into it.
But we aren't so I just can't see it, we would be seeing a lot more signs of it if it was on the cards, more than just polling found by these companies. See e.g.
http://www.nottinghampost.com/hundreds-of-people-turn-out-to-see-jeremy-corbyn-in-beeston/story-30369802-detail/story.html
(I'm on the picture in the second row, just behind him - fame at last etc.)0 -
This gets raised at every election. There is no evidence that poor weather has an impact on turnout.ManchesterKurt said:Looks like much of the country is going to be very very wet on Thursday, not sure that will lead to a great turn out amongst those who are typically less inclined to vote historically.
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Cool I will check it out, just read a little about it (not spoilers) and some of it was filmed in Blackburn, Lancashire my home town! Don't think I have seen many of his films so far, but I remember him from This is England and Skins.TOPPING said:
Yep def. Good gritty drama, only incidentally about NI. Jack O'Connell particularly good, but then I'm a fan.jonny83 said:
I've not seen it but it looks like it's on tonight on Film 4,? So it's worth a record and then watch?TOPPING said:Film review in today's Guardian (of '71, set during The Troubles):
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
PS. great film, '71.0 -
Who actually believes that 1% poll?FrancisUrquhart said:"Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place"
LOL....There is not herding and then there is 1-12% spread...Wonder what dates the polling disaster inquiry The Sequel is set for...
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"London terror attack: cyclists claim security barriers on London bridges are 'unsafe,' hours after they are installed"
Are Boris's oligarch friend Evgeny and his Bullingdon pal George losing it at the Standard? That headline only harms Theresa May's image.0 -
That's how magic and primitive religion work. You remind people of all the times sacrificing a virgin made the crops grow and hope they forget about all the times it didn't. If they remember you simply insist she can't have been a virgin after all.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
No. A good model ought to be good at predicting surprises AND non-surprises. If you're predicting black swans simply by claiming every other swan will be black, that's not impressive at all. The quality of any model is really about hits AND correct rejections.Scott_P said:
If YouGov correctly predict a number of "surprising" results, while still getting the overall total wildly wrong, is that a win for them or not?AlastairMeeks said:I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
You can make a good career as a media talking head by making lots of rather unlikely predictions on the basis that a small handful will be correct and you can shout, "there, see, I told you I was right" (while keeping quiet about all the predictions you made that didn't turn out). But it doesn't make you a sage, it makes you a charlatan.
I might be taking the analogy a bit far!0 -
Soubry looks like she did a big squeeze job on the Lib Dem vote in the 2015 GE there.MikeSmithson said:
I think Soubry would be a great loss to the Commons and her party. I'd vote for herPulpstar said:
Is Labour 'hopeful' in Broxtowe, 'quietly confident' evenNickPalmer said:
He had a meeting in Beeston a couple of days ago which attracted the largest audience in the last 20 years - and that's in Broxtowe, which needs a 4% swing. Not sure you can read much into the pattern TBH.Harris_Tweed said:
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)The_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got? ?
Soubry won't appeal to kippers so that vote might just stick UKIP !
You can also see why Nick might have thought he'd win there when he got 98.4% of his previous vote from 2010.
I think Soubry wins because the tactical Lib Dems stick with her.0 -
Typical self-centered cyclists.Cyan said:"London terror attack: cyclists claim security barriers on London bridges are 'unsafe,' hours after they are installed"
Are Boris's oligarch friend Evgeny and his Bullingdon pal George losing it at the Standard? That headline only harms Theresa May's image. 0 -
I imagine voting will be "brisk". A "voting is brisk" report fills in a good three minutes on 24 hour news on what has to be the quietest news day of the year.MikeSmithson said:
This gets raised at every election. There is no evidence that poor weather has an impact on turnout.ManchesterKurt said:Looks like much of the country is going to be very very wet on Thursday, not sure that will lead to a great turn out amongst those who are typically less inclined to vote historically.
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Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.0 -
@bigjohnowls Momentum were supposed to be GOTV in Killamarsh Sunday. But no sign of them !0
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My two comedy results are (1) the Conservatives getting 330 seats and (2) the Conservatives getting 306 seats, Labour getting 258 seats.Dura_Ace said:
The 24 carat comedy gold result would be a Conservative majority of 1.Jonathan said:For sheer comedy value on this site, even if May get's her landslide Canterbury now needs to turn red. It would be a hoot.
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If there is a 1-12% spread then some pollsters will, surely, have got it right. The GE2015 polling inquiry happened because ALL pollsters got it wrong.RobD said:
Who actually believes that 1% poll?FrancisUrquhart said:"Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place"
LOL....There is not herding and then there is 1-12% spread...Wonder what dates the polling disaster inquiry The Sequel is set for...0 -
Just been invited to a business related Jezza victory party....awkward....do I attend?0
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How did she vote on Iraq? That's the acid test.bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.0 -
I'd forgotten to tell you all my amusing GE17 dream last night. I was reading a newspaper report which said 'shock poll shows GREEN surge to 35% putting them ahead in the Midlands'
I'd say DYOR but I don't think this one needs it
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So this time half the room can tell the other half why they were totally wrong.MikeSmithson said:
If there is a 1-12% spread then some pollsters will, surely, have got it right. The GE2015 polling inquiry happened because ALL pollsters got it wrong.RobD said:
Who actually believes that 1% poll?FrancisUrquhart said:"Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place"
LOL....There is not herding and then there is 1-12% spread...Wonder what dates the polling disaster inquiry The Sequel is set for...0 -
I think the wet-your-knickers-you-laughed-so-hard result would be LibDem MPs = zero.Dura_Ace said:
The 24 carat comedy gold result would be a Conservative majority of 1.Jonathan said:For sheer comedy value on this site, even if May get's her landslide Canterbury now needs to turn red. It would be a hoot.
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The 1% poll is the most extreme because Survation not only uses the Youth Tsunami model, like YouGov, but also deletes everyone who won't say or is undecided from their sample without doing any demographic rebalancing. Hence, because very few younger voters are undecided or won't say, they have a weighting towards the young greater even than YG. Realistically the Survation result is impossible even if the young turnnout en masse.RobD said:
Who actually believes that 1% poll?FrancisUrquhart said:"Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place"
LOL....There is not herding and then there is 1-12% spread...Wonder what dates the polling disaster inquiry The Sequel is set for...0 -
Starred Up also worth finding.jonny83 said:
Cool I will check it out, just read a little about it (not spoilers) and some of it was filmed in Blackburn, Lancashire my home town! Don't think I have seen many of his films so far, but I remember him from This is England and Skins.TOPPING said:
Yep def. Good gritty drama, only incidentally about NI. Jack O'Connell particularly good, but then I'm a fan.jonny83 said:
I've not seen it but it looks like it's on tonight on Film 4,? So it's worth a record and then watch?TOPPING said:Film review in today's Guardian (of '71, set during The Troubles):
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
PS. great film, '71.0 -
Hopkins is just trying to boost her profile and get work again having been sacked by LBC.PaulM said:
Hopkins say someone has breached secrecy on postal vote - bad for Lab?
http://www.unitetheunion.org/how-we-help/listofregions/londonandeastern/community-membership-in-london-and-eastern/
There's lots of perfectly legitimate ways to reach the conclusion the postal vote looks bad (or good) for your party.
You know who has applied for postal votes and, if you've canvassed them, their voting intention. You can guess their voting intention even if you don't know it, based on ward and property type. You know more if you knock on their door and ask whether they've used it and if so for whom. You know in broad terms the return rate. You know how it all compares to last time. These are all ways that you can form a sensible, fairly robust view without seeing a single X on a ballot.0 -
Played 12, won 11 and one rained off (sub judice), I'd say they were very up for it. Not even the DPP would bottle out of this one given the voluntary confession inWestcombe's later tweetPolruan said:
Not sure the Tories necessarily want to move the conversation to possible electoral law offences.EDW20000 said:https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/871718024763584512
Hopkins say someone has breached secrecy on postal vote - bad for Lab?
http://www.unitetheunion.org/how-we-help/listofregions/londonandeastern/community-membership-in-london-and-eastern/0 -
I wouldn't be hugely surprised if the Tories win by 15 pp.MikeSmithson said:
If there is a 1-12% spread then some pollsters will, surely, have got it right. The GE2015 polling inquiry happened because ALL pollsters got it wrong.RobD said:
Who actually believes that 1% poll?FrancisUrquhart said:"Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place"
LOL....There is not herding and then there is 1-12% spread...Wonder what dates the polling disaster inquiry The Sequel is set for...0 -
Well it's all happening today on the Gulf money for terror front. The Saudis are trying to blame their Shard-owning Salafist brothers the Qataris! C'mon Boris, make a statement!
*wonders whether Trinity College, Cambridge, have their eye on the Shard as they did on the Dome*
Oh are some Tories still going on about the IRA in the 1980s and using the 1930s word "appeasement"?0 -
I'd lose some bets if that happened, the £20 to @MalcolmG for Carmichael would be particularly painful.Patrick said:
I think the wet-your-knickers-you-laughed-so-hard result would be LibDem MPs = zero.Dura_Ace said:
The 24 carat comedy gold result would be a Conservative majority of 1.Jonathan said:For sheer comedy value on this site, even if May get's her landslide Canterbury now needs to turn red. It would be a hoot.
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Missing a bit aren't you?bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.
bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-401113290 -
Yes, but in this election we're concentrating on people who may not usually vote anyway. If YG's model is relying on that section, then yes, poor weather may well have an effect. People who usually vote won't be bothered, as you say.MikeSmithson said:
This gets raised at every election. There is no evidence that poor weather has an impact on turnout.ManchesterKurt said:Looks like much of the country is going to be very very wet on Thursday, not sure that will lead to a great turn out amongst those who are typically less inclined to vote historically.
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Hope you have booked your seat at the polling inquiry!MikeSmithson said:
If there is a 1-12% spread then some pollsters will, surely, have got it right. The GE2015 polling inquiry happened because ALL pollsters got it wrong.RobD said:
Who actually believes that 1% poll?FrancisUrquhart said:"Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place"
LOL....There is not herding and then there is 1-12% spread...Wonder what dates the polling disaster inquiry The Sequel is set for...0 -
What happens when he loses?FrancisUrquhart said:Just been invited to a business related Jezza victory party....awkward....
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I believe that a polling firm followed their established procedures for estimating public opinion and were confronted with the result of a 1% lead for the Conservatives over Labour. I believe that really happened.RobD said:
Who actually believes that 1% poll?FrancisUrquhart said:"Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place"
LOL....There is not herding and then there is 1-12% spread...Wonder what dates the polling disaster inquiry The Sequel is set for...0 -
I'd suggest this is not fertile ground for Corbyn.bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_County_DurhamThe_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
if any of those are IN PLAY ... then the 1 % is a crock,right?
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How many of those measures would you have voted for?bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.0 -
IF turnout starts to vary significantly from one election to the next, in ways that both cross-correlate with voting intention and are difficult to predict, then accurate polling becomes impossible.FrancisUrquhart said:
So this time half the room can tell the other half why they were totally wrong.MikeSmithson said:
If there is a 1-12% spread then some pollsters will, surely, have got it right. The GE2015 polling inquiry happened because ALL pollsters got it wrong.RobD said:
Who actually believes that 1% poll?FrancisUrquhart said:"Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place"
LOL....There is not herding and then there is 1-12% spread...Wonder what dates the polling disaster inquiry The Sequel is set for...
The post-2017 inquiry could be as simple as "the young turned out / the young didn't turn out". Case closed.0 -
I don;t think anybody has found any sort of rational pattern in where Jezza visits in relation to target seats.The_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
0 -
Big John spinning? consider me (not) shockedTOPPING said:
Missing a bit aren't you?bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.
bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-401113290 -
Auckland and Darlington might be.BannedInParis said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_County_DurhamThe_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
if any of those are IN PLAY ... then the 1 % is a crock,right?
Sedgefield could be
The others are safe no matter how bad Jez is.0 -
YouGov had it as a toss-up when I looked this morning. I'll refrain from commenting.camel said:
Yougov have Broxtowe as a Labour gain.Pulpstar said:
Is Labour 'hopeful' in Broxtowe, 'quietly confident' even ?
Soubry won't appeal to kippers so that vote might just stick UKIP !
Are Yougov doing Labour's internal polls? Serious question.0 -
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It's good that YouGov are trying something different as regards seat modelling. I look forward to their next update.0
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I reckon that voting will be 'steady', just like the rainfall.camel said:
I imagine voting will be "brisk". A "voting is brisk" report fills in a good three minutes on 24 hour news on what has to be the quietest news day of the year.MikeSmithson said:
This gets raised at every election. There is no evidence that poor weather has an impact on turnout.ManchesterKurt said:Looks like much of the country is going to be very very wet on Thursday, not sure that will lead to a great turn out amongst those who are typically less inclined to vote historically.
Hopefully the guys with vans and knives won't stop it being a quiet news day.0 -
Tories are leading by 8% nationally. In play in NE: Bp Auckland, Darlington, Middlesbrough S.BannedInParis said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_County_DurhamThe_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
if any of those are IN PLAY ... then the 1 % is a crock,right?0 -
he can't go on like this.Floater said:
Big John spinning? consider me (not) shockedTOPPING said:
Missing a bit aren't you?bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.
bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-401113290 -
Where were Cameron and Miliband in the final days?BannedInParis said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_County_DurhamThe_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
if any of those are IN PLAY ... then the 1 % is a crock,right?0 -
whyNickPalmer said:
YouGov had it as a toss-up when I looked this morning. I'll refrain from commenting.camel said:
Yougov have Broxtowe as a Labour gain.Pulpstar said:
Is Labour 'hopeful' in Broxtowe, 'quietly confident' even ?
Soubry won't appeal to kippers so that vote might just stick UKIP !
Are Yougov doing Labour's internal polls? Serious question.0 -
Reports in the US press that Trump pulled out of Paris accord because of Macron's handshake.
What a tiny, tiny, tiny manchild0 -
@Bigjohnowls What happened to Momentum Killamarsh visit on Sunday
I was hoping to be canvassed ;( 0 -
Hopefully he'll revert back to normal after the election.BannedInParis said:
he can't go on like this.Floater said:
Big John spinning? consider me (not) shockedTOPPING said:
Missing a bit aren't you?bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.
bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-401113290 -
Jeremy Corbyn - saviour of the Union?Cyan said:
@Calum - if Labour form the next government, whether with or without a majority, they will try to keep Britain in the single market and the customs union. Will Nicola Sturgeon then withdraw the request for a referendum, or at least put it on hold?calum said:Losers lament !
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/8717201635314237440 -
I am very glad to se she voted against the insidious ID cards scheme, and the absurd 42 day detention proposals.bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.
Would be fascinated to see how you think it might have stopped the latest attack.0 -
Time to withdraw that State Visit invite. Go on, Theresa: you know you want to.calum said:0 -
That just splices together 7 or 8 questions to May, and doesn't show her answer to any of them. What is the point of that?bigjohnowls said:0 -
If he keeps it up though, Trump may well have reason to be alarmed during a State visit0
-
Just making a point if you are in the same lobby more often than not it undermines your point somewhat.Floater said:
Big John spinning? consider me (not) shockedTOPPING said:
Missing a bit aren't you?bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.
bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40111329
However when your actual record in Government is one of abject failure on Police cuts and you accuse those warning you of crying wolf etc etc etc
Doesnt need spinning it hits you between the eyes unless you are a PB Tory0 -
Agree.AndyJS said:It's good that YouGov are trying something different as regards seat modelling. I look forward to their next update.
Tomorrow's update may not mean so much due to technical problems with their survey over the weekend. Wednesday's (final?) update will be the key one, which might also pick up any post-London Bridge late swing.0 -
Cameron was outside Paddy's house.RobD said:
Where were Cameron and Miliband in the final days?BannedInParis said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_County_DurhamThe_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
if any of those are IN PLAY ... then the 1 % is a crock,right?0 -
LOL.Ishmael_Z said:
That just splices together 7 or 8 questions to May, and doesn't show her answer to any of them. What is the point of that?bigjohnowls said:0 -
There is a lot that could be done with YouGov's type of model. It seems fairly clear that some groups of voters have shifted quite dramatically from 2015. It also seems fairly clear that these groups are not evenly distributed across constituencies. By modelling how these groups of voters have changed voting intention, the ultimate seat tally should be more accurate than uniform national swing.
The polling companies have the necessary data to do this.
What I'm unclear about is how the confidence intervals work. For improved Conservative (or Labour) performance, how is the model tweaked from their best guess? Is it simply by reinserting uniform national swing by the back door or do YouGov model the different groups on different voting preferences?0 -
You didn't answer my earlier question about who you thought was responsible for the terrorist attacks, John?bigjohnowls said:
Just making a point if you are in the same lobby more often than not it undermines your point somewhat.Floater said:
Big John spinning? consider me (not) shockedTOPPING said:
Missing a bit aren't you?bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.
bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40111329
However when your actual record in Government is one of abject failure on Police cuts and you accuse those warning you of crying wolf etc etc etc
Doesnt need spinning it hits you between the eyes unless you are a PB Tory0 -
Because Twitter is the truth. Or something. One wonders who the original poster is trying to convince.Ishmael_Z said:
That just splices together 7 or 8 questions to May, and doesn't show her answer to any of them. What is the point of that?bigjohnowls said:0 -
Err..not sure we should be cosying up to trump anymore. How on earth is a country like the USA headed up by such a narcissist0
-
May thinks it is for her as it diverts the public away from her abysmal record of failure at the Home OfficeRobD said:
I'd suggest this is not fertile ground for Corbyn.bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.0 -
Lib Dems now apologised to Plaid over the advert that Mark Williams called nonsense and they will work with every party who supports anti Brexit0
-
Erm, Middlesbrough South is in Yorkshire, not County Durham!Dadge said:
Tories are leading by 8% nationally. In play in NE: Bp Auckland, Darlington, Middlesbrough S.BannedInParis said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_County_DurhamThe_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
if any of those are IN PLAY ... then the 1 % is a crock,right?0 -
Technical point for anoraks: the 37.8% the Tories polled in GB at GE2015 is arrived at by including John Bercow's votes in the Conservative total. If it isn't included they polled 37.7%. (To two decimal points, 37.78% and 37.66% respectively. Interesting how one seat can make that sort of difference).0
-
.
How many of those did the security services say they didn't need.Carolus_Rex said:
How many of those measures would you have voted for?bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.0 -
Yes, fertile ground for the Tories as Corbyn doesn't have the perception of being strong on security issues.bigjohnowls said:
May thinks it is for her as it diverts the public away from her abysmal record of failure at the Home OfficeRobD said:
I'd suggest this is not fertile ground for Corbyn.bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:Pulpstar said:
@bigjohnowls Momentum were supposed to be GOTV in Killamarsh Sunday. But no sign of them !
Majorities have to be even numbers technically since there are an even number of MPs.Dura_Ace said:
The 24 carat comedy gold result would be a Conservative majority of 1.Jonathan said:For sheer comedy value on this site, even if May get's her landslide Canterbury now needs to turn red. It would be a hoot.
Unless there's an odd number of Sinn Fein MPs who "don't count", or you don't count the speaker?0 -
At the risk of going all Love Actually, after the intel leaks, paris withdrawal and Trumps latest comments/tweets, I wonder what TMay removing / deferring her invite to the Pres would do in the short term.0
-
... and Sedgefield presumably?Dadge said:
Tories are leading by 8% nationally. In play in NE: Bp Auckland, Darlington, Middlesbrough S.BannedInParis said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_County_DurhamThe_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
if any of those are IN PLAY ... then the 1 % is a crock,right?0 -
There are four speakers (Bercow, and three deputies), so their numbers cancel.JonCisBack said:TheScreamingEagles said:Pulpstar said:@bigjohnowls Momentum were supposed to be GOTV in Killamarsh Sunday. But no sign of them !
Majorities have to be even numbers technically since there are an even number of MPs.Dura_Ace said:
The 24 carat comedy gold result would be a Conservative majority of 1.Jonathan said:For sheer comedy value on this site, even if May get's her landslide Canterbury now needs to turn red. It would be a hoot.
Unless there's an odd number of Sinn Fein MPs who "don't count", or you don't count the speaker?0 -
-
Deeper target.BannedInParis said:
... and Sedgefield presumably?Dadge said:
Tories are leading by 8% nationally. In play in NE: Bp Auckland, Darlington, Middlesbrough S.BannedInParis said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_County_DurhamThe_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
if any of those are IN PLAY ... then the 1 % is a crock,right?0 -
I don't think BJO can have watched it, or he wouldn't have posted. Just when we thought a cure had been found for Plato's Syndrome.matt said:
Because Twitter is the truth. Or something. One wonders who the original poster is trying to convince.Ishmael_Z said:
That just splices together 7 or 8 questions to May, and doesn't show her answer to any of them. What is the point of that?bigjohnowls said:0 -
Have some groups of voters shifted dramatically? Or is a younger cohort of tech-savvy Labour supporters learning how to game the polls? It would be richly ironic (and well-deserved) if their success in conjuring a Labour surge out of thin air merely stiffens the sinews of those determined to resist it.AlastairMeeks said:There is a lot that could be done with YouGov's type of model. It seems fairly clear that some groups of voters have shifted quite dramatically from 2015. It also seems fairly clear that these groups are not evenly distributed across constituencies. By modelling how these groups of voters have changed voting intention, the ultimate seat tally should be more accurate than uniform national swing.
The polling companies have the necessary data to do this.
What I'm unclear about is how the confidence intervals work. For improved Conservative (or Labour) performance, how is the model tweaked from their best guess? Is it simply by reinserting uniform national swing by the back door or do YouGov model the different groups on different voting preferences?0 -
They claim to be monitoring changes of voting behaviour both by geography (a tiny sample at seat level but a perfectly respectable one if ten or so seats are taken together) and demography (blending their extensive data on their panellists with local census data). So I'd be surprised if national swing is an input; the output of their 50,000 panel, weighted for demography and turnout, is presumably the 42/38 national VI. Once set up I expect the model is dynamic - when a panellist changes their intended vote, it feeds through both locally and via their demographic. Certainly they got today's update out early this morning which doesn't suggest it needs a lot of re-work before you get the output.AlastairMeeks said:There is a lot that could be done with YouGov's type of model. It seems fairly clear that some groups of voters have shifted quite dramatically from 2015. It also seems fairly clear that these groups are not evenly distributed across constituencies. By modelling how these groups of voters have changed voting intention, the ultimate seat tally should be more accurate than uniform national swing.
The polling companies have the necessary data to do this.
What I'm unclear about is how the confidence intervals work. For improved Conservative (or Labour) performance, how is the model tweaked from their best guess? Is it simply by reinserting uniform national swing by the back door or do YouGov model the different groups on different voting preferences?
The confidence levels at seat level must be huge (as the lines on the website seat boxes indicate!)
Local political history is the one thing they will not be able to model without a larger sample living in each seat.0 -
Try and stick to being pedantic when it actually matters.SandyRentool said:
Erm, Middlesbrough South is in Yorkshire, not County Durham!Dadge said:
Tories are leading by 8% nationally. In play in NE: Bp Auckland, Darlington, Middlesbrough S.BannedInParis said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_County_DurhamThe_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
if any of those are IN PLAY ... then the 1 % is a crock,right?0 -
It's not as if they have to actively try to game it. These panels will self-select the politically engaged.Restharrow said:
Have some groups of voters shifted dramatically? Or is a younger cohort of tech-savvy Labour supporters learning how to game the polls? It would be richly ironic (and well-deserved) if their success in conjuring a Labour surge out of thin air merely stiffens the sinews of those determined to resist it.AlastairMeeks said:There is a lot that could be done with YouGov's type of model. It seems fairly clear that some groups of voters have shifted quite dramatically from 2015. It also seems fairly clear that these groups are not evenly distributed across constituencies. By modelling how these groups of voters have changed voting intention, the ultimate seat tally should be more accurate than uniform national swing.
The polling companies have the necessary data to do this.
What I'm unclear about is how the confidence intervals work. For improved Conservative (or Labour) performance, how is the model tweaked from their best guess? Is it simply by reinserting uniform national swing by the back door or do YouGov model the different groups on different voting preferences?0 -
You're thinking too much about one side of the fence. UKIP's vote has apparently largely decamped.Restharrow said:
Have some groups of voters shifted dramatically? Or is a younger cohort of tech-savvy Labour supporters learning how to game the polls? It would be richly ironic (and well-deserved) if their success in conjuring a Labour surge out of thin air merely stiffens the sinews of those determined to resist it.AlastairMeeks said:There is a lot that could be done with YouGov's type of model. It seems fairly clear that some groups of voters have shifted quite dramatically from 2015. It also seems fairly clear that these groups are not evenly distributed across constituencies. By modelling how these groups of voters have changed voting intention, the ultimate seat tally should be more accurate than uniform national swing.
The polling companies have the necessary data to do this.
What I'm unclear about is how the confidence intervals work. For improved Conservative (or Labour) performance, how is the model tweaked from their best guess? Is it simply by reinserting uniform national swing by the back door or do YouGov model the different groups on different voting preferences?0 -
Hartlepool? I have 9/4 against a labour hold. Jez should head to Hartlepool to help me clean up.Pulpstar said:
Deeper target.BannedInParis said:
... and Sedgefield presumably?Dadge said:
Tories are leading by 8% nationally. In play in NE: Bp Auckland, Darlington, Middlesbrough S.BannedInParis said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_County_DurhamThe_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
if any of those are IN PLAY ... then the 1 % is a crock,right?0 -
Would it not be more exact to say: Played 12, lost 11 but got through on a technicality; Then one postponed for clearer weather?Ishmael_Z said:
Played 12, won 11 and one rained off (sub judice), I'd say they were very up for it. Not even the DPP would bottle out of this one given the voluntary confession inWestcombe's later tweetPolruan said:Not sure the Tories necessarily want to move the conversation to possible electoral law offences.
0 -
Posting cut together bits of video and trying to pass it off as what most people would have seen on the TV is a bit desperate, and further dents what we could, with a certain charity, call your credibility.bigjohnowls said:
Just making a point if you are in the same lobby more often than not it undermines your point somewhat.Floater said:
Big John spinning? consider me (not) shockedTOPPING said:
Missing a bit aren't you?bigjohnowls said:Terrorism Act 2000
May: Absent from the final vote (there was no Second Reading)
Anti-terrorism, Crime and Security Act 2001
May absent at Third Reading
Fourteen-day detention in the Criminal Justice Act 2003
May: Voted against it
Control Orders
The creation of control orders was contained within the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism Act.
May: Voted against it
introduction of ID cards 2006.
May voted against it
The coalition government, with Mrs May as home secretary, would go on to scrap the scheme in 2010.
Ninety-day detention Drafted in the aftermath of the London 7/7 bombings
May voted against it
Counter-terrorism Act 2008
This legislation gave powers to the police to question terrorist suspects after they had been charged. It also tried to extend detention without charge to 42 days
May: Absent from the vote
Legislation for closed press free courts.
May: absent at Third Reading
.
bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40111329
However when your actual record in Government is one of abject failure on Police cuts and you accuse those warning you of crying wolf etc etc etc
Doesnt need spinning it hits you between the eyes unless you are a PB Tory0 -
@TheRedRag: Corbyn didn't call upon Margaret Thatcher to resign after the Brighton Bomb - he called upon the IRA to come to Westminster. #SoftOnTerrorRobD said:Yes, fertile ground for the Tories as Corbyn doesn't have the perception of being strong on security issues.
0 -
Why is Trump having a go at the London Mayor ?david_herdson said:
Time to withdraw that State Visit invite. Go on, Theresa: you know you want to.calum said:0 -
It never needed to. That's why it was termed an 'Executive Agreement' rather than a Treaty. In reality, it didn't make a great deal of practical difference in as far as the countries could have taken the actions they pledged to unilaterally anyway, though the agreement was and is symbolically important.AlsoIndigo said:0
