politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not Y
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Oh we have a facebook war going on here in Ceredigion between Palid and Lib Dems - Lib Dems have posted on Plaid's page that they support an extreme Brexit like Tories, Labour and UKIP .Plaid are not happy calling the LibDems liarsand demanding it is takendown and an apology given0
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You can't extrapolate a result in an event based on previous unrelated events. It's a classic non sequitur (a non sequitur, in formal logic, is an invalid argument).Jonathan said:Wondering if Labour winning Canterbury is more or less likely than Corbyn becoming Labour leader, Trump becoming US president, the UK leaving the EU and Leicester winning the Premier league.
In plain English, it's that word again, begins with 'b', ends in 's'.0 -
If you had that accumulator you would be in with a shot of winning the universe.MarqueeMark said:
Let's just say you wouldn't want it as the last leg of your accumulator!Jonathan said:Wondering if Labour winning Canterbury is more or less likely than Corbyn becoming Labour leader, Trump becoming US president, the UK leaving the EU and Leicester winning the Premier league.
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It's all just Tales.Stark_Dawning said:The Canterbury thing is interesting. Does anyone here live there? What's the feeling on the ground? Corbyn has something of the medieval pilgrim about him, so perhaps he's captured the residents' imagination.
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Corbyn says "very responsible people" are "very worried" about Theresa May's record.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.0 -
If canterbury is close, amber rudd is in big trouble.
I would love to see amber rudd get taken down.0 -
In the local elections a few weeks ago the Tories narrowly got most votes.TravelJunkie said:If canterbury is close, amber rudd is in big trouble.
I would love to see amber rudd get taken down.0 -
Battersea is also lean Labour as is Hastings and Rye. Rubbish.AndyJS said:
Take a look at YouGov's constituency forecasts.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/0 -
The seat level *mistakes* arise because their local sample is so small that they are using demographic modelling to 'import' other panel members from nearby. I would expect that in aggregate this modelling balances out, such that the total number of modelled constituency votes balances with the headline VI result of 42/38. Since this reflects a national panel fifty times the size of a normal opinion poll, you'd expect it to be more accurate. Whilst this approach can't work for the LDs that are fighting a handful of isolated and politically unusual seats, in theory at least I don't see why it couldn't get the Tory/Labour seat balance right? Except for the well-discussed two potential flaws of self-selection and turnout, of course.Richard_Nabavi said:
It could be, but given that it is explicitly a bottom-up model which models every constituency first and then aggregates the results, it seems very unlikely.IanB2 said:And given its internal logic, it could very easily be *bollocks* at single-seat level but stunningly accurate in aggregate, at least as far as the two main parties are concerned (and subject to the caveat regarding turnout).
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Well Paul Nuttall has no idea about Scottish law. Which I find odd as he's not only got an LLB he's also an eminent QC
https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/8714993956483235850 -
Actually, read between the lines is terrible advice here. Name them.Cyan said:Corbyn says "very responsible people" are "very worried" about Theresa May's record.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.0 -
Doesn't everybody know the Saudis were funding anti-Assad sunni groups in Syria? I thought that was common knowledge.Cyan said:Corbyn says "very responsible people" are "very worried" about Theresa May's record.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.0 -
So what What has May done over the last 7 years, she has been in chargeFloater said:
May let known terrorists pop back and forth to known ISIS area of Libya and then kill all those innocents in Manchester.
Mays record on cuts to vital services has made us all less safe too.
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EMA model based on latest UK and Scotland polls.
Labour surge has stopped but no sign of swingback to Con.
Con 43.7% (8% lead)
Lab 35.7%
LD 8.0%
Con 348 (46 maj)
Lab 225
LD 10
SNP 46
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What, with Mikes leaflets to help out?TravelJunkie said:My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.
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His mum was Mary Queen of Scots.TheScreamingEagles said:Well Paul Nuttall has no idea about Scottish law. Which I find odd as he's not only got an LLB he's also an eminent QC
https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/8714993956483235850 -
To quote Chaucer, who was commenting on Canterbury being won by Labour:Stark_Dawning said:The Canterbury thing is interesting. Does anyone here live there? What's the feeling on the ground? Corbyn has something of the medieval pilgrim about him, so perhaps he's captured the residents' imagination.
"This Nicholas anon leet fle a fart
As greet as it had been a thonder-dent
That with the strook he was almoost yblent"0 -
Presumably Mr Corbyn supported the alleged funding of 'UK terrorist networks'?Cyan said:Corbyn says "very responsible people" are "very worried" about Theresa May's record.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.
https://order-order.com/2017/06/05/corbyn-mcdonnell-abbott-voted-to-allow-isis-fighters-to-return-to-britain/
Corbyn fighting the last few days of the election on national security and the fight against terrorism. Yup, he sure is a genius.0 -
Anecdote alert:
Have spoken with three people today who were all wavering over over voting Tory due to WFA and social care... All have swung back into the Con camp to stop Jezza...0 -
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)The_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?0 -
A 4pt national lead for TMay at say 42/38 would be enough to retain her current majority.IanB2 said:
The seat level *mistakes* arise because their local sample is so small that they are using demographic modelling to 'import' other panel members from nearby. I would expect that in aggregate this modelling balances out, such that the total number of modelled constituency votes balances with the headline VI result of 42/38. Since this reflects a national panel fifty times the size of a normal opinion poll, you'd expect it to be more accurate. Whilst this approach can't work for the LDs that are fighting a handful of isolated and politically unusual seats, in theory at least I don't see why it couldn't get the Tory/Labour seat balance right? Except for the well-discussed two potential flaws of self-selection and turnout, of course.Richard_Nabavi said:
It could be, but given that it is explicitly a bottom-up model which models every constituency first and then aggregates the results, it seems very unlikely.IanB2 said:And given its internal logic, it could very easily be *bollocks* at single-seat level but stunningly accurate in aggregate, at least as far as the two main parties are concerned (and subject to the caveat regarding turnout).
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Ipswich is lean labour. Word on the ground is the ben gummers in trouble but it was only from the local newspaper.nunu said:
Battersea is also lean Labour as is Hastings and Rye. Rubbish.AndyJS said:
Take a look at YouGov's constituency forecasts.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
it would be so weird if may wins and rudd/gummer get taken down.0 -
it was legislation proposed by Theresa May as Home Secretary that Corbyn voted againstbigjohnowls said:
So what What has May done over the last 7 years, she has been in chargeFloater said:
May let known terrorists pop back and forth to known ISIS area of Libya and then kill all those innocents in Manchester.
Mays record on cuts to vital services has made us all less safe too.0 -
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Ruth Davidson the warm up act for tessie. Might make her look a bit wooden.0
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UKpollingreport categories Canterbury as a "safe Conservative seat".
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/canterbury/
William Hill: Tories 1/100.
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/10971349/Canterbury+Constituency+-+Party+Winner.html0 -
Eastbourne and Lewes are the main two seats in this area which potentially vulnerable (Eastbourne more than Lewes IMO). Both are certainly a lot more at risk than Hastings & Rye.Recidivist said:Which seats in that area need help? I'd have thought that although it is a long shot for a Labour win, it is the weakest Tory seat relatively speaking. Or are the Tories worried about the Lib Dems in Eastbourne and Lewes?
Having said that, they don't look to me to me to be especially in danger. Obviously one must never be complacent, and there's a strong effort being put in by the Conservatives in both seats, but overall I don't think the LibDems are going to advance in either. They look less in danger now than they did a few weeks ago, given the fact that the LibDems nationally don't really seem to have been able to boost their support as many of us had expected.
(My wife and I have been helping in Eastbourne).0 -
the problem we've got is that everyone is assuming that ukip voters in former labour seats are going to vote tory, they might not.0
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Sounds like the tory candidate has had a combative time there recently:
http://www.kentonline.co.uk/canterbury/news/shouty-political-activists-have-a-126735/0 -
Hove maybe?Recidivist said:
Which seats in that area need help? I'd have thought that although it is a long shot for a Labour win, it is the weakest Tory seat relatively speaking. Or are the Tories worried about the Lib Dems in Eastbourne and Lewes?Richard_Nabavi said:
YouGov somehow contrive to have Hastings & Rye as 'Lean Labour'.MarqueeMark said:There does not seem to be any suggestion that the Tories have changed their seat targeting to align with YouGov. ICM it is, steady as she goes. Given their respective available resources, who are you more inclined to believe - YouGov or the Conservative general election war machine? If CCHQ has ballsed it up to that degree, then....no-one will be especially surprised!
I have no idea what Labour's seat targeting amounts to. Are they diverting resources to Canterbury?
That is, to put it mildly, not a view shared locally. In fact, Hastings Conservatives have been helping in other seats.0 -
Bingo.kjohnw said:
it was legislation proposed by Theresa May as Home Secretary that Corbyn voted againstbigjohnowls said:
So what What has May done over the last 7 years, she has been in chargeFloater said:
May let known terrorists pop back and forth to known ISIS area of Libya and then kill all those innocents in Manchester.
Mays record on cuts to vital services has made us all less safe too.
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very strange map for wales.TravelJunkie said:
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/Lab_seat_gains.htmlAndyJS said:
Ceredigion and Orkney&Shetland look very safe for the party. Both nationalist parties are well down in the opinion polls.TravelJunkie said:My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.
Vale of Clwyd 99%
Gower Wales 98%
Cardiff North Wales 86%
Vale of Glamorgan Wales 81%
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Wales 79%
Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales 76%
Sheffield, Hallam Yorkshire and The Humber 53%
Clwyd West Wales 53% Con
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales 52% PC
Brighton, Pavilion South East 51%
I don't think caroline lucas will lose nor nick clegg.
they have tories beating labour incumbent in Ynys Mon, yet losing existing seat of Vale of Glamorgan! (labour need a 7% swing)0 -
Film review in today's Guardian (of '71, set during The Troubles):
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
PS. great film, '71.0 -
No, Kippers are going to pour out and vote for Jeremy 'open the borders and let them all in" Corbyn......TravelJunkie said:the problem we've got is that everyone is assuming that ukip voters in former labour seats are going to vote tory, they might not.
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It appears the Canterbury Parliamentary Constituency has been Conservative since 1885 - Would certainly be a "surprise" if they lost it to Jeremy Corbyn when even Blair at this best couldn't snatch it...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canterbury_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Not sure how useful they are with such a wide range of polling numbers, but keeping track of the various models and a couple others...
354 Britain Elects
355 Ashcroft
361 Baxter
365 Hanretty
367 Tory best-poll method (ICM)
369 SpIndex
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It clearly doesn't have an effect on his supporters, but the rest of us........TOPPING said:Film review in today's Guardian (of '71, set during The Troubles):
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
PS. great film, '71.0 -
I can't see the Tories winning Ynys Mons and losing Glamorgan personally.llef said:
very strange map for wales.TravelJunkie said:
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/Lab_seat_gains.htmlAndyJS said:
Ceredigion and Orkney&Shetland look very safe for the party. Both nationalist parties are well down in the opinion polls.TravelJunkie said:My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.
Vale of Clwyd 99%
Gower Wales 98%
Cardiff North Wales 86%
Vale of Glamorgan Wales 81%
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Wales 79%
Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales 76%
Sheffield, Hallam Yorkshire and The Humber 53%
Clwyd West Wales 53% Con
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales 52% PC
Brighton, Pavilion South East 51%
I don't think caroline lucas will lose nor nick clegg.
they have tories beating labour incumbent in Ynys Mon, yet losing existing seat of Vale of Glamorgan! (labour need a 7% swing)0 -
I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.0
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If you apply that 42/38 figure to Canterbury you get Con 47%, Lab 32%. Is it possible for that 15% gap to be overturned because of special circumstances in this particular constituency? The Tories would have to do 8 points worse and Labour 8 points better than average.TheWhiteRabbit said:
A 4pt national lead for TMay at say 42/38 would be enough to retain her current majority.IanB2 said:
The seat level *mistakes* arise because their local sample is so small that they are using demographic modelling to 'import' other panel members from nearby. I would expect that in aggregate this modelling balances out, such that the total number of modelled constituency votes balances with the headline VI result of 42/38. Since this reflects a national panel fifty times the size of a normal opinion poll, you'd expect it to be more accurate. Whilst this approach can't work for the LDs that are fighting a handful of isolated and politically unusual seats, in theory at least I don't see why it couldn't get the Tory/Labour seat balance right? Except for the well-discussed two potential flaws of self-selection and turnout, of course.Richard_Nabavi said:
It could be, but given that it is explicitly a bottom-up model which models every constituency first and then aggregates the results, it seems very unlikely.IanB2 said:And given its internal logic, it could very easily be *bollocks* at single-seat level but stunningly accurate in aggregate, at least as far as the two main parties are concerned (and subject to the caveat regarding turnout).
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But that makes no sense. They'd be far better advised to do a national poll and apply UNS, rather than breaking down their sample into micro-samples, modelling individual seats with massive error bars, and then adding up the results. It's a statistical nonsense.IanB2 said:The seat level *mistakes* arise because their local sample is so small that they are using demographic modelling to 'import' other panel members from nearby. I would expect that in aggregate this modelling balances out, such that the total number of modelled constituency votes balances with the headline VI result of 42/38. Since this reflects a national panel fifty times the size of a normal opinion poll, you'd expect it to be more accurate. Whilst this approach can't work for the LDs that are fighting a handful of isolated and politically unusual seats, in theory at least I don't see why it couldn't get the Tory/Labour seat balance right? Except for the well-discussed two potential flaws of self-selection and turnout, of course.
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https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/871718024763584512
Hopkins say someone has breached secrecy on postal vote - bad for Lab?
http://www.unitetheunion.org/how-we-help/listofregions/londonandeastern/community-membership-in-london-and-eastern/0 -
I don't talk to traitors. (scum who put their party first country second). People who live in essex put their country people in places like berkshire, devon put themselves first. Traitors to the state.MarqueeMark said:
No, Kippers are going to pour out and vote for Jeremy 'open the borders and let them all in" Corbyn......TravelJunkie said:the problem we've got is that everyone is assuming that ukip voters in former labour seats are going to vote tory, they might not.
Go outside and knock on strangers doors and scare them with the IRA.0 -
Which anti terror legislation did Jezbollah vote for?bigjohnowls said:
So what What has May done over the last 7 years, she has been in chargeFloater said:
May let known terrorists pop back and forth to known ISIS area of Libya and then kill all those innocents in Manchester.
Mays record on cuts to vital services has made us all less safe too.
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For sheer comedy value on this site, even if May get's her landslide Canterbury now needs to turn red. It would be a hoot.0
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this election was supposed to be (Gina) Miller's tale....Polruan said:
It's all just Tales.Stark_Dawning said:The Canterbury thing is interesting. Does anyone here live there? What's the feeling on the ground? Corbyn has something of the medieval pilgrim about him, so perhaps he's captured the residents' imagination.
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I hope you're right.AlastairMeeks said:I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
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Yes, but the reason Theresa May is suppressing the report isn't because it contains what is common knowledge.Fenster said:
Doesn't everybody know the Saudis were funding anti-Assad sunni groups in Syria? I thought that was common knowledge.Cyan said:Corbyn says "very responsible people" are "very worried" about Theresa May's record.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.
CCHQ must be absolutely cacking it. Seamus is playing a superb game, continuing the surge now that all the Tories' ammunition is shot, and on the big issue: terrorism.0 -
Have you seen Mays record?Floater said:
Which anti terror legislation did Jezbollah vote for?bigjohnowls said:
So what What has May done over the last 7 years, she has been in chargeFloater said:
May let known terrorists pop back and forth to known ISIS area of Libya and then kill all those innocents in Manchester.
Mays record on cuts to vital services has made us all less safe too.0 -
Tess all for shooting to kill.0
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Or YouGov's model will prove to be a load of rubbish? I know which one I'd go for...AlastairMeeks said:There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
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We were dicsussing this this morning.EDW20000 said:https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/871718024763584512
Hopkins say someone has breached secrecy on postal vote - bad for Lab?
http://www.unitetheunion.org/how-we-help/listofregions/londonandeastern/community-membership-in-london-and-eastern/0 -
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I've not seen it but it looks like it's on tonight on Film 4,? So it's worth a record and then watch?TOPPING said:Film review in today's Guardian (of '71, set during The Troubles):
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
PS. great film, '71.0 -
I've bet confidently on a sizeable Cons majority.
Half-term's over: watch the polls move their way this week as Tories return from hols.0 -
If Ynys Monchanges it will be a Plaid gain as their former MP and leader is back Ieaun Wyn JonesPulpstar said:
I can't see the Tories winning Ynys Mons and losing Glamorgan personally.llef said:
very strange map for wales.TravelJunkie said:
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/Lab_seat_gains.htmlAndyJS said:
Ceredigion and Orkney&Shetland look very safe for the party. Both nationalist parties are well down in the opinion polls.TravelJunkie said:My big fear on election night is that the liberal democrats get wiped out.
Vale of Clwyd 99%
Gower Wales 98%
Cardiff North Wales 86%
Vale of Glamorgan Wales 81%
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South Wales 79%
Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales 76%
Sheffield, Hallam Yorkshire and The Humber 53%
Clwyd West Wales 53% Con
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales 52% PC
Brighton, Pavilion South East 51%
I don't think caroline lucas will lose nor nick clegg.
they have tories beating labour incumbent in Ynys Mon, yet losing existing seat of Vale of Glamorgan! (labour need a 7% swing)0 -
Were it not for the particularly strong turnout model employed, [ICM] too would be showing something very close to YouGov’s 5-pointer, rather than the 14-pointer we have...ICM’s view, which has been so long-held it pre-dates even my own 22 years in situ, is that polls intrinsically inflate Labour’s share—there’s more evidence of this than a stick can be shaken at—and finding ways to mitigate that problem is the responsibility of the polling agency. So, to summarise, YouGov are softer on turnout than ICM and have a 5-point Tory lead. ICM is probably the hardest polling firm on turnout and we have a 14-point Tory lead.
What's really happening with Labour in the polls? (After poll last week)
Essentially ICM have added a chunk of vote share to the Conservatives "for luck" because everyone always seems to underestimate Conservative vote share, but nobody is quite sure why. ICM are not necessarily wrong to do so, if it gets them closer to the end result, but it doesn't inspire confidence in anyone's polling.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_County_DurhamThe_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?
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You are IOS and I claim my £5Cyan said:
Yes, but the reason Theresa May is suppressing the report isn't because it contains what is common knowledge.Fenster said:
Doesn't everybody know the Saudis were funding anti-Assad sunni groups in Syria? I thought that was common knowledge.Cyan said:Corbyn says "very responsible people" are "very worried" about Theresa May's record.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.
CCHQ must be absolutely cacking it. Seamus is playing a superb game, peaking at just the right time, now that all the Tories' ammunition is shot, and on the big issue: terrorism.0 -
FPT
prh47bridge said:
Before moving here I have always lived in safe Conservative seats so I have nothing to judge this against. But the fact we are being bombarded with so much personalised material by the Conservatives this close to polling day suggests to me that their private polling is telling them this seat is in play. If that is the case they must think we are still in landslide territory. However, if the published polls are correct, even looking at the best polls for the Conservatives, this seat isn't anywhere near being in play.
What do I think is happening here? I really don't know. But the views I hear being expressed about Corbyn suggest the Conservatives may be in with a chance.
The Tories have money to burn so they're even phone canvassing in Nottingham North, which is REALLY not in play. If you've got £10 million lying around, why not? But also, the direct mails will have ben set up weeks ago when they really did think they had a shot at sweeping the board. I would be more impressed if you were getting hand-delivered leaflets at this point - that really would indicate that they still thought it was a target.0 -
Is there not a number on the envelope so you know where the vote came from but not how they voted (but could interpolate - if postal votes are all coming in from the leafier parts of the constituency you would be concerned if Labour)EDW20000 said:https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/871718024763584512
Hopkins say someone has breached secrecy on postal vote - bad for Lab?
http://www.unitetheunion.org/how-we-help/listofregions/londonandeastern/community-membership-in-london-and-eastern/0 -
The smoke signals emerging from Dudley North (Amongst others) and Ealing Central & Acton on twitter suggest that one of the waves is crashing home whereas the other is looking like a mirage.AlastairMeeks said:I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
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If YouGov correctly predict a number of "surprising" results, while still getting the overall total wildly wrong, is that a win for them or not?AlastairMeeks said:I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
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I certainly don't believe the YouGov prediction for my constituency. They show a huge increase in the Labour vote taking it back close to 1997 levels (which was the highest vote share they have ever had in this constituency). That really does not compute.MarqueeMark said:
But their competitors think it is total bollocks.MikeSmithson said:
How do you know it is total bollocks? I have no idea ad I'd suggest that you are in the same position. Using words like bollocks in caps is no substitute for serious analysisJason said:
It's amazing how a theme can suddenly take off, even though it's preposterous. This is a good example of it. YouGov model - which we all know is total bollocks - says Labour could take Canterbury. If they did, Corbyn would be heading for a landslide - which is also total bollocks.Brom said:
Labour win in Canterbury? what have you been smoking?ThePonderer said:
No UKIP candidate this time, 7,000 votes last time, local UKIP branch backing Conservative candidate. Could be anywhere from a Lab win by 7% to a Con win by 20%.tlg86 said:On Canterbury, whilst I don't see Labour winning it, I think the Tory majority there will be reduced by a fair bit.
YouGov model - TOTAL BOLLOCKS
And which of the parties think it isn't total bollocks?0 -
We are apt to forget it is a Nowcast, not a Forecast, too. But so are they, unfortunately. The error is merely statitistical, not where the vote % might go between here and the election.AlastairMeeks said:I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
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I live "next door" but regard the City as home.Stark_Dawning said:The Canterbury thing is interesting. Does anyone here live there? What's the feeling on the ground? Corbyn has something of the medieval pilgrim about him, so perhaps he's captured the residents' imagination.
Personally i dont like Brazier and have been amazed his vote holds up so well. But he is liked locally and he does have strong support amongst the oldies.
As i said earlier the University students are all going home and with the activity that i have seen this is not a seat either side expects to change hands.0 -
Losers lament !
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/8717201635314237440 -
I wish I knew what that meant. Is it complimentary?SquareRoot said:
You are IOS and I claim my £5Cyan said:
Yes, but the reason Theresa May is suppressing the report isn't because it contains what is common knowledge.Fenster said:
Doesn't everybody know the Saudis were funding anti-Assad sunni groups in Syria? I thought that was common knowledge.Cyan said:Corbyn says "very responsible people" are "very worried" about Theresa May's record.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.
CCHQ must be absolutely cacking it. Seamus is playing a superb game, peaking at just the right time, now that all the Tories' ammunition is shot, and on the big issue: terrorism.
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I have her double album on blue vinyl.bigjohnowls said:
Have you seen Mays record?Floater said:
Which anti terror legislation did Jezbollah vote for?bigjohnowls said:
So what What has May done over the last 7 years, she has been in chargeFloater said:
May let known terrorists pop back and forth to known ISIS area of Libya and then kill all those innocents in Manchester.
Mays record on cuts to vital services has made us all less safe too.0 -
You need to have a look at the "ordered" list to determine whether their model has validity.Scott_P said:
If YouGov correctly predict a number of "surprising" results, while still getting the overall total wildly wrong, is that a win for them or not?AlastairMeeks said:I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
Which constituency is #325 for the Tory-Labour 'gap', then compare to the results.0 -
Jeremy Corbyn's Garden Tax is way more effective.....TravelJunkie said:
I don't talk to traitors. (scum who put their party first country second). People who live in essex put their country people in places like berkshire, devon put themselves first. Traitors to the state.MarqueeMark said:
No, Kippers are going to pour out and vote for Jeremy 'open the borders and let them all in" Corbyn......TravelJunkie said:the problem we've got is that everyone is assuming that ukip voters in former labour seats are going to vote tory, they might not.
Go outside and knock on strangers doors and scare them with the IRA.0 -
It's the other way around - ICM have deducted a chunk of Labour's vote on the basis that, in the past at least, it hasn't turned out on the day.FF43 said:Were it not for the particularly strong turnout model employed, [ICM] too would be showing something very close to YouGov’s 5-pointer, rather than the 14-pointer we have...ICM’s view, which has been so long-held it pre-dates even my own 22 years in situ, is that polls intrinsically inflate Labour’s share—there’s more evidence of this than a stick can be shaken at—and finding ways to mitigate that problem is the responsibility of the polling agency. So, to summarise, YouGov are softer on turnout than ICM and have a 5-point Tory lead. ICM is probably the hardest polling firm on turnout and we have a 14-point Tory lead.
What's really happening with Labour in the polls? (After poll last week)
Essentially ICM have added a chunk of vote share to the Conservatives "for luck" because everyone always seems to underestimate Conservative vote share, but nobody is quite sure why. ICM are not necessarily wrong to do so, if it gets them closer to the end result, but it doesn't inspire confidence in anyone's polling.0 -
Not sure the Tories necessarily want to move the conversation to possible electoral law offences.EDW20000 said:https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/871718024763584512
Hopkins say someone has breached secrecy on postal vote - bad for Lab?
http://www.unitetheunion.org/how-we-help/listofregions/londonandeastern/community-membership-in-london-and-eastern/0 -
He had a meeting in Beeston a couple of days ago which attracted the largest audience in the last 20 years - and that's in Broxtowe, which needs a 4% swing. Not sure you can read much into the pattern TBH.Harris_Tweed said:
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)The_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got?0 -
YouGov model — LDs third in Southport.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
The last time they were in third place was in 1966.0 -
here it isbigjohnowls said:
Have you seen Mays record?Floater said:
Which anti terror legislation did Jezbollah vote for?bigjohnowls said:
So what What has May done over the last 7 years, she has been in chargeFloater said:
May let known terrorists pop back and forth to known ISIS area of Libya and then kill all those innocents in Manchester.
Mays record on cuts to vital services has made us all less safe too.
bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-401113290 -
@Calum - if Labour form the next government, whether with or without a majority, they will try to keep Britain in the single market and the customs union. Will Nicola Sturgeon then withdraw the request for a referendum, or at least put it on hold?calum said:Losers lament !
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/8717201635314237440 -
No, because it's a model not a seat forecaster. A win for them would be the other way round.Scott_P said:
If YouGov correctly predict a number of "surprising" results, while still getting the overall total wildly wrong, is that a win for them or not?AlastairMeeks said:I find YouGov's model very interesting. They've made a serious attempt to try to model how a change election might work. There will be some very surprising results on Thursday.
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Is Labour 'hopeful' in Broxtowe, 'quietly confident' evenNickPalmer said:
He had a meeting in Beeston a couple of days ago which attracted the largest audience in the last 20 years - and that's in Broxtowe, which needs a 4% swing. Not sure you can read much into the pattern TBH.Harris_Tweed said:
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)The_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got? ?
Soubry won't appeal to kippers so that vote might just stick UKIP !0 -
What do you think of labour's 'ground game' #innocentfaceCyan said:
I wish I knew what that meant. Is it complimentary?SquareRoot said:
You are IOS and I claim my £5Cyan said:
Yes, but the reason Theresa May is suppressing the report isn't because it contains what is common knowledge.Fenster said:
Doesn't everybody know the Saudis were funding anti-Assad sunni groups in Syria? I thought that was common knowledge.Cyan said:Corbyn says "very responsible people" are "very worried" about Theresa May's record.
Read between the lines.
Jeremy Corbyn, Emily Thornberry and Tim Farron are calling for the publication of the report on the Saudi funding of terror.
"What does Theresa May know about alleged Saudi funding of UK terrorist networks?" asks Another Angry Voice.
CCHQ must be absolutely cacking it. Seamus is playing a superb game, peaking at just the right time, now that all the Tories' ammunition is shot, and on the big issue: terrorism.0 -
Yep def. Good gritty drama, only incidentally about NI. Jack O'Connell particularly good, but then I'm a fan.jonny83 said:
I've not seen it but it looks like it's on tonight on Film 4,? So it's worth a record and then watch?TOPPING said:Film review in today's Guardian (of '71, set during The Troubles):
"..this is a ferocious action movie suffused with nailbiting tension, as Hook tries to stay ahead of provisionals and equally deadly undercover agents."
ie for Graun readers and I daresay plenty of others, The Troubles, PIRA, Warrington, etc are now in the realms of history where, as with much historical analysis, equivalence can be drawn between each opposing side.
In this context, I wonder, especially of course for the young, how much of an effect all this banging on about Jezza and the IRA will have.
PS. great film, '71.0 -
Worse, having a huge sample does nothing to help with the problem of getting hold of a random sample in the first place. If anything it makes the problem fifty times worse, which means their headline vote shares are a very accurate reflection of a self-selecting sample - completely useless.Richard_Nabavi said:
But that makes no sense. They'd be far better advised to do a national poll and apply UNS, rather than breaking down their sample into micro-samples, modelling individual seats with massive error bars, and then adding up the results. It's a statistical nonsense.IanB2 said:The seat level *mistakes* arise because their local sample is so small that they are using demographic modelling to 'import' other panel members from nearby. I would expect that in aggregate this modelling balances out, such that the total number of modelled constituency votes balances with the headline VI result of 42/38. Since this reflects a national panel fifty times the size of a normal opinion poll, you'd expect it to be more accurate. Whilst this approach can't work for the LDs that are fighting a handful of isolated and politically unusual seats, in theory at least I don't see why it couldn't get the Tory/Labour seat balance right? Except for the well-discussed two potential flaws of self-selection and turnout, of course.
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Jez we arejonny83 said:YouGov is all based on the assumption we will see that the youth will turnout like never before (or for a long long time). Something that very much has to be seen to be believed.
If the Youth of this country were holding mass Obama style rallies across the country backing Labour and Corbyn then I would have to buy into it.
But we aren't so I just can't see it, we would be seeing a lot more signs of it if it was on the cards, more than just polling found by these companies. See e.g.
http://www.nottinghampost.com/hundreds-of-people-turn-out-to-see-jeremy-corbyn-in-beeston/story-30369802-detail/story.html
(I'm on the picture in the second row, just behind him - fame at last etc.)0 -
Again, unsurprising. The seat has far more pensioners than the NW generally, and when they import pensioners from surrounding seats to supplement their 75 panellists, they aren't LibDem voters, unlike many of their Southport counterparts.AndyJS said:YouGov model — LDs third in Southport.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
The last time they were in third place was in 1966.0 -
I've backed the Tories there - but it may well be close I think. I wouldn't be shocked if Labour won there.AndyJS said:YouGov model — LDs third in Southport.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
The last time they were in third place was in 1966.0 -
Another mention of spurious garden tax, the problem is people trying to get a house let alone a garden!
Garden tax is a non-runner, all about police cuts today and Theresa resigning.0 -
Yougov have Broxtowe as a Labour gain.Pulpstar said:
Is Labour 'hopeful' in Broxtowe, 'quietly confident' evenNickPalmer said:
He had a meeting in Beeston a couple of days ago which attracted the largest audience in the last 20 years - and that's in Broxtowe, which needs a 4% swing. Not sure you can read much into the pattern TBH.Harris_Tweed said:
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)The_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got? ?
Soubry won't appeal to kippers so that vote might just stick UKIP !
Are Yougov doing Labour's internal polls? Serious question.0 -
I think Soubry would be a great loss to the Commons and her party. I'd vote for herPulpstar said:
Is Labour 'hopeful' in Broxtowe, 'quietly confident' evenNickPalmer said:
He had a meeting in Beeston a couple of days ago which attracted the largest audience in the last 20 years - and that's in Broxtowe, which needs a 4% swing. Not sure you can read much into the pattern TBH.Harris_Tweed said:
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)The_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got? ?
Soubry won't appeal to kippers so that vote might just stick UKIP !
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A very nice ICM poll.
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Thanks. I was thinking of it from the Conservative lead point of view. In zero sum electoral politics, if fewer people vote Labour, the Conservative percentage will rise and they will win more seats. But you are more accurate.IanB2 said:
It's the other way around - ICM have deducted a chunk of Labour's vote on the basis that, in the past at least, it hasn't turned out on the day.FF43 said:Were it not for the particularly strong turnout model employed, [ICM] too would be showing something very close to YouGov’s 5-pointer, rather than the 14-pointer we have...ICM’s view, which has been so long-held it pre-dates even my own 22 years in situ, is that polls intrinsically inflate Labour’s share—there’s more evidence of this than a stick can be shaken at—and finding ways to mitigate that problem is the responsibility of the polling agency. So, to summarise, YouGov are softer on turnout than ICM and have a 5-point Tory lead. ICM is probably the hardest polling firm on turnout and we have a 14-point Tory lead.
What's really happening with Labour in the polls? (After poll last week)
Essentially ICM have added a chunk of vote share to the Conservatives "for luck" because everyone always seems to underestimate Conservative vote share, but nobody is quite sure why. ICM are not necessarily wrong to do so, if it gets them closer to the end result, but it doesn't inspire confidence in anyone's polling.
Edit. I don't think it definitely means prospective Labour voters are less likely to turn out on the day. Simply that more people say they will vote Labour in the polls than do in actual elections, for reasons that are not clear.0 -
Hi Katie. *waves*Slackbladder said:
We were dicsussing this this morning.EDW20000 said:https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/871718024763584512
Hopkins say someone has breached secrecy on postal vote - bad for Lab?
http://www.unitetheunion.org/how-we-help/listofregions/londonandeastern/community-membership-in-london-and-eastern/0 -
Mike, she's one of yours, really. Right down to the cannabis.MikeSmithson said:
I think Soubry would be a great loss to the Commons and her party. I'd vote for herPulpstar said:
Is Labour 'hopeful' in Broxtowe, 'quietly confident' evenNickPalmer said:
He had a meeting in Beeston a couple of days ago which attracted the largest audience in the last 20 years - and that's in Broxtowe, which needs a 4% swing. Not sure you can read much into the pattern TBH.Harris_Tweed said:
I suspect it's probably just that JC performs best in front of thousands of cheering fans, and they reckon it's a fair chance they'll gain more from doing that on the 6pm news than rounding up a few stray libdems in a marginal. (But they also need to be doing the latter if they want a YouGov rather than an ICM result!)The_Taxman said:Somebody is telling stories i.e. Canterbury.
Back in the real world Corbyn is in County Durham! They didn't specify on sky which one of the seats he is visiting but they seem to range from approximately 4,000 majority to about 15,000.
So is this evidence of a strategic genius who is going to win the GE or alternatively and more likely Labour are in panic mode scuttling around trying to save what they have got? ?
Soubry won't appeal to kippers so that vote might just stick UKIP !
0 -
Looks like much of the country is going to be very very wet on Thursday, not sure that will lead to a great turn out amongst those who are typically less inclined to vote historically.0
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"Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place"
LOL....There is not herding and then there is 1-12% spread...Wonder what dates the polling disaster inquiry The Sequel is set for...0
