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Olney not been campaigning as vociferously against Heathrow as Zac did ?rcs1000 said:
I reckon there are at most about five seats in the whole country which may end up being affected by the referendum result. (And in at least one of those, Heathrow expansion is likely to be a bigger issue than Brexit.)0 -
This time, it's differentPulpstar said:
No. Political engagement will.CarlottaVance said:
We'll see....0 -
That fucking idiot from Progress getting his lefty multi cultural bullshit all over the news while being framed as a normal punter pfft0
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According to the polls people aren't thinking wtf. A majority agree May was right to call the election.IanB2 said:
But you are missing the point.RobD said:
And I suppose people banging on about the Tories stealing your house is positive campaigning?MarkSenior said:
Very true , the Conservatives have nothing to campaign positively on , the Strong and Stable message having been replaced by Weak and Wobbly .IanB2 said:
The bottom line is that the Tories are obsessed with negative campaigning and think that banging on about Corbyn will guarantee them victory (because that is of course why they called the election in the first place), whereas the average man or woman in the street wants to know why, since the Tories have troubled us with this unnecessary election, the Conservative programme for government over the next five years should actually merit our support?roserees64 said:In my opinion, going hard on the garden tax would be a huge error as the come back would be, 'people can't get a house under the Tories and not a hope of a house with a garden'. it would play very badly with the 'just about managing'.
There is a video doing the rounds which has been produced by some policemen, it is strongly attacking the cut in police numbers. This could have a huge impact depending on who sees it.
The government had three years more to run, but called a surprise election.
People think, OK, so tell us why you need our support again so soon?
The government says the election is about Brexit but, after a month of campaigning, we are no wiser about their Brexit plan than before. Nor will they tell us very much about their plans for the next five years, and most of the top dogs in the Tory party spend the campaign trying to keep a low profile.
Who can blame many voters for thinking, "wtf?"
Funnily enough the people moaning most about her calling an election seem to be the same people who kept claiming she didn't have a mandate to do anything she was trying to do.
So now she will have a mandate and they can shut the f**k up.
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Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.0 -
He pays for things on his mobile phone. I never understand how his phone pays for stuffPulpstar said:
Postal vote tooTravelJunkie said:
One of the young ones said he voted and his parents were like "you voted? Who did you vote for? I voted for labour (smiled), dad - what's wrong with you? Mum - he will learn
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Hoey's covering that base, perhaps because she's worried about people using Heathrow for health tourism.rcs1000 said:I reckon there are at most about five seats in the whole country which may end up being affected by the referendum result. (And in at least one of those, Heathrow expansion is likely to be a bigger issue than Brexit.)
http://www.london-se1.co.uk/news/view/6811
https://twitter.com/HACAN1/status/8695795589823856640 -
Same principle as a contactless credit card.TravelJunkie said:
He pays for things on his mobile phone. I never understand how his phone pays for stuffPulpstar said:
Postal vote tooTravelJunkie said:
One of the young ones said he voted and his parents were like "you voted? Who did you vote for? I voted for labour (smiled), dad - what's wrong with you? Mum - he will learn0 -
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Am I right in thinking that apart from a short stint in minor office by Tom Watson, none of Corbyn's likely ministers have had any experience at all of government?0
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Is it a blogpost about a new brand of ultra-absorbent pampers?CarlottaVance said:twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/871420010031448064
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I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.0 -
Speaking of Vauxhall, how is the gay vote going this time round - anyone know ?0
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So what you are saying is stay away from Brum. Right got it ...although I didn't have any plans to go there......Y0kel said:A post from last thread that I'm going to expand on.
The lads behind recent attacks and many foiled ones tend to stay close to home or a have substantive proportion of their circle close to the planned attack point.
Given the long held Islamic extremist idea of attacking the UK across multiple cities (and lets not forget it isn't just IS, Al Qaeda & LIFG exist and still have associated elements here) , it shouldn't take a genius to work out where the possibilities of another location are if we are in an uptempo phase.
Let no one be in any doubt that the proximity of the elections has figured into the thinking of those responsible. Whether impacting or not, they are not without some thought on when as well as where and how.
Finally I posted last thread that there is a background link between at least one of the London attackers and the Manchester circle then pulled it as there was a possibility of name confusion. Something to watch for, however, is whether the attackers are of Arab origin, not East Africa, converts or what might broadly be known as the Indian subcontinent.
It will be of very notable significance if they are Arab origins.0 -
I'm back! Tory engaged supporters return en masse from half term hols to bolster the polling for the blues.... whilst away with my bruv's family (Kingston voter) he was called over 10 times on his mobile by a number showing up as the yellow peril. Keen - he's no idea how they got it!!!
So time to build towards a big Thursday night - first up, did I see OGH tweet there's a Survation GMB poll out tonight....
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Are 70% even registered ?TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!0 -
If you count the UKIP vote now going to the Tories in Leave seats as well as tactical voting against the Tories in Remain seats it will be more than thatrcs1000 said:
I reckon there are at most about five seats in the whole country which may end up being affected by the referendum result. (And in at least one of those, Heathrow expansion is likely to be a bigger issue than Brexit.)JohnO said:
You may be right of course, though personally I feel the Brexit-Remainer divide is grossly exaggerated. Put it this way: if the Tory lead does prove to be above 10% on the day, both seats will be held.HYUFD said:
Based on my calculations from that pretty pro Corbyn is it not?JohnO said:
What are you drooling on about? HYUFD quoted a poll that had the Tories 12% ahead nationally but he thought the party would lose those two seats. I simply asked why he believed that.MarkSenior said:
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .JohnO said:
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).MarkSenior said:
They are not 12% aheadJohnO said:
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?HYUFD said:
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop AucklandMarkSenior said:
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for nowFrancisUrquhart said:
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?foxinsoxuk said:
Plenty in the photos for #labourdoorstep such as:View_From_Cumbria said:
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some ralliesjonny83 said:Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...
twitter.com/LabourBristol/status/871043370755510273
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.0 -
Do you have a link to the statistics? Given that the self-reported turnout hasn't moved at all, I am highly skeptical it will double.TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.0 -
Yep. Sort of an astonishing thing though. (I may have missed someone with experience of some sort)RobD said:
All the sane ones resigned from the shadow cabinet a while ago.Omnium said:Am I right in thinking that apart from a short stint in minor office by Tom Watson, none of Corbyn's likely ministers have had any experience at all of government?
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It looks like some of police inquiries on the London attackers are leading them up north.0
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Round ObjectsTravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.0 -
The only recent extreme outliers are Norstat (no tested history in GB polling, didn't publish tables of their only previous poll according to TSE) and, borderline extreme, Survation (dodgy sample as discussed ad nauseam).another_richard said:
But its not an extreme outlier is it.MarkSenior said:
Nope you don't trust any specific poll but look at them as a whole make a judgement and certainly do not believe an extreme outlier .RobD said:
LOL. So we should trust the other polls with "dubious unproven methodologies"?MarkSenior said:
So you choose one poll with dubious unproven methodology that fits your expectation and ignore the other 7 or 8 polls that do not , very scientific .JohnO said:
HYUFD was citing the ComRes poll (which I thought had a 12% lead).MarkSenior said:
They are not 12% aheadJohnO said:
If the Tories are 12% ahead why should they lose either seat?HYUFD said:
Based on Comres today Labour would gain Bristol North West and Brighton Kemptown but lose Ellesmere Port and Neston, Bridgend, Mansfield and Bishop AucklandMarkSenior said:
Bristol North West is a Conservative seat .... for nowFrancisUrquhart said:
I obviously have a different understanding of the word "huge". Also, Bristol should be a shoe in for Labour, aren't they wasting their efforts?foxinsoxuk said:
Plenty in the photos for #labourdoorstep such as:View_From_Cumbria said:
If the yoof were going to turn out in vast numbers they would be seen now leafletting in vast numbers - it is a strong indicator. Sure some are attending some ralliesjonny83 said:
Unless the yoof turn out in huge numbers...AndyJS said:Theresa May is going to win a comfortable majority on Thursday by default. Because the opposition are unelectable. Possibly even a landslide.
twitter.com/LabourBristol/status/871043370755510273
As for the actuality we shall find out in a few days time: my repeated forecast has been a Tory lead of between 12 and 15% and a majority of at least 100.
It just a poll which gives a result you don't like.0 -
The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!0 -
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.Pulpstar said:
Are 70% even registered ?TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!0 -
Less than signed up before the EU referendum deadline. And that doesn't account for duplicate registrations.TravelJunkie said:
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.Pulpstar said:
Are 70% even registered ?TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!0 -
Survation have been out polling Narnia I think.Scrapheap_as_was said:
So time to build towards a big Thursday night - first up, did I see OGH tweet there's a Survation GMB poll out tonight....0 -
Agreed. Reaction here and elsewhere makes it clear some people already committed will harden in their views, but most will very carefully not let it affect their voting choice.RobD said:
I suspect it'll only have a small/very small effect.kjohnw said:so, fellow PBers , following the awful events of the last 24 hours , what is the consensus on how this will affect the result on Thursday? Will the tories cement their vote now and cause the waverers to return to nanny or will they blame it on government policy and flock to jezzbolah ?
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Probably not but as you say there will probably be a swing to the yellows thereoxfordsimon said:
Living in OxWAb as I do, it is hard to get a real sense of how the land lies. If you judge by my Facebook feed, the LDs are picking up lots of disaffected/tactical Labour votes. But I don't put any store by what I read on there.HYUFD said:
We will see but from phoning I would be more worried about the Tories losing ultra Remain Oxford West and Abingdon than failing to gain Leave Chorley
The LDs have been bombarding people with fake news based election literature. I got 4 personal letters from them in 1 week - even though they have never canvassed me and have had no contact to suggest I was a likely LD voter. My housemates didn't receive anything in that period. It was getting ridiculous and so I demanded that they remove me from their lists - after which point, my housemates started getting all the mail!
I know Abingdon saw LD gains in the County elections and they have been trying to extrapolate that into a LD victory - but I don't believe it.
Layla Moran has not had any presence in the constituency since she lost 2 years ago - whereas Blackwood has been regular in her communication.
I think there will be a swing to the LDs (one of the few places in the country where that is going to happen) but I can't see it being enough to overturn a 10K majority.0 -
By now, they will probably find 102% of the population watched the QT special.Pulpstar said:
Survation have been out polling Narnia I think.Scrapheap_as_was said:
So time to build towards a big Thursday night - first up, did I see OGH tweet there's a Survation GMB poll out tonight....0 -
Could only manage around 55% or something of 18-24 year olds in Indyref and I get the sense level of engagement will be lower. Though they'll upvote on RedditPulpstar said:
Are 70% even registered ?TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!0 -
Did they find Chuka there?Pulpstar said:
Survation have been out polling Narnia I think.Scrapheap_as_was said:
So time to build towards a big Thursday night - first up, did I see OGH tweet there's a Survation GMB poll out tonight....0 -
I did a You Gov earlier, are we expecting to see another before Thursday?FrancisUrquhart said:
By now, they will probably find 102% of the population watched the QT special.Pulpstar said:
Survation have been out polling Narnia I think.Scrapheap_as_was said:
So time to build towards a big Thursday night - first up, did I see OGH tweet there's a Survation GMB poll out tonight....0 -
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Sold!RobD said:
Is it a blogpost about a new brand of ultra-absorbent pampers?CarlottaVance said:twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/871420010031448064
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And all the existing voters have got 2 years older since then...TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.0 -
White Witch-100%Pulpstar said:
Survation have been out polling Narnia I think.Scrapheap_as_was said:
So time to build towards a big Thursday night - first up, did I see OGH tweet there's a Survation GMB poll out tonight....0 -
I think 50-55 is possible.Monkeys said:
Could only manage around 55% or something of 18-24 year olds in Indyref and I get the sense level of engagement will be lower. Though they'll upvote on RedditPulpstar said:
Are 70% even registered ?TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!0 -
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?TravelJunkie said:
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.Pulpstar said:
Are 70% even registered ?TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Worked out well then didn't it?0 -
Isn't he normally found in Ibiza this time of year. There are a lot of people who go there that are convinced they have visited Narnia !!!oxfordsimon said:
Did they find Chuka there?Pulpstar said:
Survation have been out polling Narnia I think.Scrapheap_as_was said:
So time to build towards a big Thursday night - first up, did I see OGH tweet there's a Survation GMB poll out tonight....0 -
Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.0
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I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.oxfordsimon said:
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?TravelJunkie said:
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.Pulpstar said:
Are 70% even registered ?TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Worked out well then didn't it?0 -
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....kle4 said:The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!0 -
On the subject of registrations:
Figures comparing the week prior to the deadline in 2015 and 2017
Under 25 - 316k, 538k
25-34 - 330k, 442k
35-44 - 184k, 183k
45-54 - 123k, 101k
55-64 - 61k, 50k
65-74 - 27k, 21k
75 plus - 14k, 10k
Despite 316k new registrants in 2015, turnout went down 1%.0 -
Well aren't you the lucky one?TravelJunkie said:
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.oxfordsimon said:
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?TravelJunkie said:
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.Pulpstar said:
Are 70% even registered ?TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Worked out well then didn't it?
I still don't buy the line you are peddling.0 -
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As I mentioned a few days ago the schools as part of their civic classes have been pushing kids to register once they are allowed which is from 16. This is a great thing and I love the fact they are doing it but I suspect that will somewhat warp your final voting numbers given there are two years worth of registrants who can't vote.TravelJunkie said:0 -
That's what happens when you follow the 'snow'...FrancisUrquhart said:
Isn't he normally found in Ibiza this time of year. There are a lot of people who go there that are convinced they have visited Narnia !!!oxfordsimon said:
Did they find Chuka there?Pulpstar said:
Survation have been out polling Narnia I think.Scrapheap_as_was said:
So time to build towards a big Thursday night - first up, did I see OGH tweet there's a Survation GMB poll out tonight....0 -
76% registeredAndyJS said:Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.
54% voted
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/179807/Scottish-referendum-Public-Opinion-survey-ICM-Report-WEBSITE.pdf (Page 11)0 -
Very useful information, thank you.AlsoIndigo said:
76% registeredAndyJS said:Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.
54% voted
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/179807/Scottish-referendum-Public-Opinion-survey-ICM-Report-WEBSITE.pdf (Page 11)0 -
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.TravelJunkie said:
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.oxfordsimon said:
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?TravelJunkie said:
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.Pulpstar said:
Are 70% even registered ?TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Worked out well then didn't it?0 -
I don't think people think like that - they will be swayed or not swayed by something, but they don't "very carefully" rule things out from consideration - the mind is not like a court prohibiting relevant evidence as inadmissible. I think many Corbynistas are only lightly attached to Corbynism and will opt for safety on Thursday. It's important that "Corbyn weak on defending the public" is not a brand new issue, it was already out there after QT and inkle4 said:
Agreed. Reaction here and elsewhere makes it clear some people already committed will harden in their views, but most will very carefully not let it affect their voting choice.RobD said:
I suspect it'll only have a small/very small effect.kjohnw said:so, fellow PBers , following the awful events of the last 24 hours , what is the consensus on how this will affect the result on Thursday? Will the tories cement their vote now and cause the waverers to return to nanny or will they blame it on government policy and flock to jezzbolah ?
this video, now closing in on 6m views.0 -
If the labour surge is not being driven by an increase of young voters saying they wil vote, then maybe it must be coming from people who are more likley to vote and therefore the surge is real?CarlottaVance said:0 -
I think this is saying that the self-reported value is wrong.nunu said:
If the labour surge is not being driven by an increase of young voters saying they wil vote, then maybe it must be coming from people who are more likley to vote and therefore the surge is real?CarlottaVance said:0 -
Where did you get those figures... Have been looking for that info...RobD said:On the subject of registrations:
Figures comparing the week prior to the deadline in 2015 and 2017
Under 25 - 316k, 538k
25-34 - 330k, 442k
35-44 - 184k, 183k
45-54 - 123k, 101k
55-64 - 61k, 50k
65-74 - 27k, 21k
75 plus - 14k, 10k
Despite 316k new registrants in 2015, turnout went down 1%.
This says UK population aged 18-24 is 5.7m.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/jn5q/lms
So an extra 200k registrations is quite a small amount of the population in that age group.
But on the other hand- it's only been 2 years since last election, so we would expect not that many people are newly eligible to vote?
Not really sure how to interpret that!0 -
I'm sure this won't cause any ructions with Corbynites...
https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/8714237127881318410 -
The question is what is the final registration numbers and their age distribution. I think 2015 is misleading. 2010 is a better example for 18-24 turnout.RobD said:On the subject of registrations:
Figures comparing the week prior to the deadline in 2015 and 2017
Under 25 - 316k, 538k
25-34 - 330k, 442k
35-44 - 184k, 183k
45-54 - 123k, 101k
55-64 - 61k, 50k
65-74 - 27k, 21k
75 plus - 14k, 10k
Despite 316k new registrants in 2015, turnout went down 1%.
So in the above week, very few 55+ got themselves registered. They were probably registered already0 -
Out and about today in Farron country, and there was the usual heavy display of Lib dem posters. It is fairly normal round here, I am still surprised he is so popular in an area that you would think should be Con.TudorRose said:
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....kle4 said:The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.0 -
Straight from the government's very nice website.rkrkrk said:
Where did you get those figures... Have been looking for that info...RobD said:On the subject of registrations:
Figures comparing the week prior to the deadline in 2015 and 2017
Under 25 - 316k, 538k
25-34 - 330k, 442k
35-44 - 184k, 183k
45-54 - 123k, 101k
55-64 - 61k, 50k
65-74 - 27k, 21k
75 plus - 14k, 10k
Despite 316k new registrants in 2015, turnout went down 1%.
This says UK population aged 18-24 is 5.7m.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/jn5q/lms
So an extra 200k registrations is quite a small amount of the population in that age group.
But on the other hand- it's only been 2 years since last election, so we would expect not that many people are newly eligible to vote?
Not really sure how to interpret that!
https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group
Note this doesn't account for duplicate registrations (people who are already registered) or those moving house (which students do a lot). The number of new voters is probably a lot smaller.
0 -
"So an extra 200k registrations is quite a small amount of the population in that age group"rkrkrk said:
Where did you get those figures... Have been looking for that info...RobD said:On the subject of registrations:
Figures comparing the week prior to the deadline in 2015 and 2017
Under 25 - 316k, 538k
25-34 - 330k, 442k
35-44 - 184k, 183k
45-54 - 123k, 101k
55-64 - 61k, 50k
65-74 - 27k, 21k
75 plus - 14k, 10k
Despite 316k new registrants in 2015, turnout went down 1%.
This says UK population aged 18-24 is 5.7m.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/jn5q/lms
So an extra 200k registrations is quite a small amount of the population in that age group.
But on the other hand- it's only been 2 years since last election, so we would expect not that many people are newly eligible to vote?
Not really sure how to interpret that!
That's only in that week !0 -
The link between #registered and turnout change is pretty useful.surbiton said:
The question is what is the final registration numbers and their age distribution. I think 2015 is misleading. 2010 is a better example for 18-24 turnout.RobD said:On the subject of registrations:
Figures comparing the week prior to the deadline in 2015 and 2017
Under 25 - 316k, 538k
25-34 - 330k, 442k
35-44 - 184k, 183k
45-54 - 123k, 101k
55-64 - 61k, 50k
65-74 - 27k, 21k
75 plus - 14k, 10k
Despite 316k new registrants in 2015, turnout went down 1%.0 -
seems fair comments to meScrapheap_as_was said:I'm sure this won't cause any ructions with Corbynites...
https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/8714237127881318410 -
Ah... Good spot. I suspect a lot leave it until the deadline though...surbiton said:
"So an extra 200k registrations is quite a small amount of the population in that age group"rkrkrk said:
Where did you get those figures... Have been looking for that info...RobD said:On the subject of registrations:
Figures comparing the week prior to the deadline in 2015 and 2017
Under 25 - 316k, 538k
25-34 - 330k, 442k
35-44 - 184k, 183k
45-54 - 123k, 101k
55-64 - 61k, 50k
65-74 - 27k, 21k
75 plus - 14k, 10k
Despite 316k new registrants in 2015, turnout went down 1%.
This says UK population aged 18-24 is 5.7m.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/jn5q/lms
So an extra 200k registrations is quite a small amount of the population in that age group.
But on the other hand- it's only been 2 years since last election, so we would expect not that many people are newly eligible to vote?
Not really sure how to interpret that!
That's only in that week !0 -
Corbyn is utterly useless....like my Amstrads....Floater said:
seems fair comments to meScrapheap_as_was said:I'm sure this won't cause any ructions with Corbynites...
https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/8714237127881318410 -
My work place sent an email to all staff telling us to vote remain. I voted leave.TudorRose said:
Does everyone you meet tell you how they voted two years ago and how they're planning to vote now? I'm quite political but I have no idea how most of my colleagues will vote - and I'm certainly not going to ruin my relationship with them by asking.TravelJunkie said:
I've encountered ukip voters voting for corbyn and also lib dem voters in 2010 voted Tory 2015 remain and now corbyn.oxfordsimon said:
Would that be the same sort of effect of all the new voters who registered before the Referendum and were supposed to secure the victory for Remain?TravelJunkie said:
Did you see how many new voters signed up that are under 30 before deadline.Pulpstar said:
Are 70% even registered ?TravelJunkie said:
I think the youth vote will be close to 70% not 43% in 2015. Just look at number of new voters since 2015.RobD said:
Check Carlotta's graph. Self-reported turnout for the youngest group is basically unchanged relative to 2015. That doesn't sound like a surge to me.TravelJunkie said:What do ICM and comres do with people that didn't vote in 2015 and will vote in 2017?
How do polling predict then youth vote for 2017 or do they presume it will be the same as ,2015?
Youth vote won't be the same as 2015.
It'll be up I think *Lab@ 10-1 Leeds NW ^^;* but 70% ?!
Worked out well then didn't it?
It's the way phrase questions, how you say it and the environment you do it in. You can get a lot out of people!e without them knowing. Sales\recruitment jobs teach you terrible butnuseful things.0 -
'Very carefully' was perhaps not the best way of expressing how I think it would work. What I mean is, people are influenced in many subtle ways in how they intend to vote, but these incidents are very unsubtle, and to some extent that actually makes it less effective than it might is my theory, in that someone might be on the cusp of wavering, then think about if it is because of this very large thing, which they cannot ignore, and which they would not want to let influence them and change their mind, and so resist the temptation.Ishmael_Z said:
I don't think people think like that - they will be swayed or not swayed by something, but they don't "very carefully" rule things out from consideration - the mind is not like a court prohibiting relevant evidence as inadmissible. I think many Corbynistas are only lightly attached to Corbynism and will opt for safety on Thursday. It's important that "Corbyn weak on defending the public" is not a brand new issue, it was already out there after QT and inkle4 said:
Agreed. Reaction here and elsewhere makes it clear some people already committed will harden in their views, but most will very carefully not let it affect their voting choice.RobD said:
I suspect it'll only have a small/very small effect.kjohnw said:so, fellow PBers , following the awful events of the last 24 hours , what is the consensus on how this will affect the result on Thursday? Will the tories cement their vote now and cause the waverers to return to nanny or will they blame it on government policy and flock to jezzbolah ?
this video, now closing in on 6m views.
As I say, only a theory.0 -
Driving through Milnthorpe around election time is always an unnerving experience; for a country town the political agitation there is quite extra-ordinary. If you suffer from epilepsy the constant blue-yellow flashing of the signs as you go past them all might be dangerous.jayfdee said:
Out and about today in Farron country, and there was the usual heavy display of Lib dem posters. It is fairly normal round here, I am still surprised he is so popular in an area that you would think should be Con.TudorRose said:
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....kle4 said:The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.0 -
Yeah, the vast majority of the registrations are in the last week.surbiton said:
"So an extra 200k registrations is quite a small amount of the population in that age group"rkrkrk said:
Where did you get those figures... Have been looking for that info...RobD said:On the subject of registrations:
Figures comparing the week prior to the deadline in 2015 and 2017
Under 25 - 316k, 538k
25-34 - 330k, 442k
35-44 - 184k, 183k
45-54 - 123k, 101k
55-64 - 61k, 50k
65-74 - 27k, 21k
75 plus - 14k, 10k
Despite 316k new registrants in 2015, turnout went down 1%.
This says UK population aged 18-24 is 5.7m.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/timeseries/jn5q/lms
So an extra 200k registrations is quite a small amount of the population in that age group.
But on the other hand- it's only been 2 years since last election, so we would expect not that many people are newly eligible to vote?
Not really sure how to interpret that!
That's only in that week !0 -
"Put not your trust in the opinion pollsters for they cannot agree about what is going to happen on 8 June."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/03/maybot-and-monsiuer-zen-drama-didnt-obey-script-thresea-may-jeremy-corbyn0 -
He will win by at least 4000jayfdee said:
Out and about today in Farron country, and there was the usual heavy display of Lib dem posters. It is fairly normal round here, I am still surprised he is so popular in an area that you would think should be Con.TudorRose said:
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....kle4 said:The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.0 -
So a 10% increase in number of 18-25 votes will increase the labour vote share by 2pts.
Tory majority over 100 for me is where my money's going.0 -
If they vote.TravelJunkie said:So a 10% increase in number of 18-25 votes will increase the labour vote share by 2pts.
Tory majority over 100 for me is where my money's going.
0 -
What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix.
Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows.
I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.0 -
Exit poll will be at 10:00 pm as usual and it will a question of how big the majority will be.jayfdee said:What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix.
Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows.
I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.0 -
After last night's atrocities, Sporting's political markets have been closed all day. Meanwhile Spreadex had the Tories up two seats at 362-368 with Labour down correspondingly at 199-205, much as I had forecast, after last night's more encouraging polls outlook for the Blue Team.0
-
There is not a cat in hell's chance youth turnout will be higher then Indyref. Just no way.kle4 said:
Very useful information, thank you.AlsoIndigo said:
76% registeredAndyJS said:Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.
54% voted
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/179807/Scottish-referendum-Public-Opinion-survey-ICM-Report-WEBSITE.pdf (Page 11)
Expect something like 50% max. and that is 6% higher then 2015.0 -
Sunvation/GMB poll out at midnight?0
-
Yes indeed going up the hill from the lights, it is solid support.TudorRose said:
Driving through Milnthorpe around election time is always an unnerving experience; for a country town the political agitation there is quite extra-ordinary. If you suffer from epilepsy the constant blue-yellow flashing of the signs as you go past them all might be dangerous.jayfdee said:
Out and about today in Farron country, and there was the usual heavy display of Lib dem posters. It is fairly normal round here, I am still surprised he is so popular in an area that you would think should be Con.TudorRose said:
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....kle4 said:The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.0 -
Corb's attacking May currently on police cuts .... and also trying to stop this
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/8714266212024770570 -
Can you get internet acces on your flight?jayfdee said:What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix.
Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows.
I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.
I normally don't get any sleep before an exciting journey anyway.0 -
There is kind of one in St Andrews.JackW said:
Can you recommend a madrassa ?rcs1000 said:
He should be sent for re-education.FrancisUrquhart said:
That bloke lobbing all the stuff like a football hooligan to stop being murdered obviously didn't get the memo.rcs1000 said:
I believe the security forces would be allowed to use harsh words. But only if they weren't offensive to minority groups.AlsoIndigo said:Stark_Dawning said:I don't particularly care for Corbyn or Abbott, but I can't envisage even them scrapping armed police response. They might tinker with the rules of engagement, perhaps, to an unhelpful degree.
http://www.madras.fife.sch.uk/0 -
Its definitely a cult.SeanT said:
I have a slightly awkward situation online. The editor of my thrillers - very smart, likeable, and a huge supporter of my work when it needs it - has suddenly become a raging Corbynite on Twitter. Posting the most bat-shit memes and doo-lally bollocks. So I am having to mute her tweets or avoid them, lest we have a terrible argument which ruins my career....kle4 said:The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
More importantly, tho, is the mere fact she's buying it. She is middle aged, super bright, not a wide eyed naif.
I really think it is a semi-religious thing: once people are converted to Corbynism no evidence will ever budge them, and Corbyn is converting millions. Not particularly through his policies - though they like the hopey, changey, no-tuition-fee stuff - but just by being so unexpected and different. And apparently "authentic". By being *him*.
This says to me that Labour are deluded if they think they could win on these leftwing policies with "a better leader". Corbyn IS the best leader. The best man to present this crazy shit.
So Nick Palmer had a point, when many of us - me included - derided him. The bad news for Nick is that, if they lose next week, that's it. There isn't another, better, younger, saner Corbyn ready to take over. And he's 68.0 -
Yes the exit poll is usually very good, and an opportunity to eat your hat.surbiton said:
Exit poll will be at 10:00 pm as usual and it will a question of how big the majority will be.jayfdee said:What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix.
Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows.
I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.0 -
The big question is .... will you be up for any of the following - Caroline Lucas, Vincent Cable, Angus Robertson, Zac Goldsmith etc?jayfdee said:What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix.
Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows.
I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.0 -
Richard Burgon.... [well he's younger, not sure he meets the other requirements tho]SeanT said:
I have a slightly awkward situation online. The editor of my thrillers - very smart, likeable, and a huge supporter of my work when it needs it - has suddenly become a raging Corbynite on Twitter. Posting the most bat-shit memes and doo-lally bollocks. So I am having to mute her tweets or avoid them, lest we have a terrible argument which ruins my career....kle4 said:The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
More importantly, tho, is the mere fact she's buying it. She is middle aged, super bright, not a wide eyed naif.
I really think it is a semi-religious thing: once people are converted to Corbynism no evidence will ever budge them, and Corbyn is converting millions. Not particularly through his policies - though they like the hopey, changey, no-tuition-fee stuff - but just by being so unexpected and different. And apparently "authentic". By being *him*.
This says to me that Labour are deluded if they think they could win on these leftwing policies with "a better leader". Corbyn IS the best leader. The best man to present this crazy shit.
So Nick Palmer had a point, when many of us - me included - derided him. The bad news for Nick is that, if they lose next week, that's it. There isn't another, better, younger, saner Corbyn ready to take over. And he's 68.0 -
Something to be wary of is that a fair amount of that 18-24 group would have been non-Scottish students who would have felt it wasn't morally right to vote in the referendum.AlsoIndigo said:
76% registeredAndyJS said:Turnout at the Scottish independence referendum was a massive 84%. What was youth turnout like then? Because turnout this time probably won't be more than 70% and so it's unlikely youth turnout will be as high as it was in Scotland in 2014.
54% voted
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/179807/Scottish-referendum-Public-Opinion-survey-ICM-Report-WEBSITE.pdf (Page 11)0 -
From my time among a few Corbynistas, one a recent convert (and who has even voted Tory in the distant pas!) and one longstanding Labour fan, they will dismiss any of this as lies. The police cuts line has swayed them completely.Scrapheap_as_was said:Corb's attacking May currently on police cuts .... and also trying to stop this
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/871426621202477057
But now off to Wonder Woman.0 -
Hmm... I thought TMay was the 'u-turn' monopolist.Scrapheap_as_was said:Corb's attacking May currently on police cuts .... and also trying to stop this
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/871426621202477057
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/8714293296281477170 -
Seat voted remain. Shd be safe.timmo said:
He will win by at least 4000jayfdee said:
Out and about today in Farron country, and there was the usual heavy display of Lib dem posters. It is fairly normal round here, I am still surprised he is so popular in an area that you would think should be Con.TudorRose said:
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....kle4 said:The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.0 -
Do I support any of them, NO.peter_from_putney said:
The big question is .... will you be up for any of the following - Caroline Lucas, Vincent Cable, Angus Robertson, Zac Goldsmith etc?jayfdee said:What to do? I normally stay up all night for GE, but next day I have a 20 hour journey to far flung places for my annual high altitude climbing adrenaline fix.
Usually UNS has it sorted by 2.30am, but this year, who knows.
I will miss the post mortem, and the wailing and gnashing of teeth.0 -
Looks like The Sun are going to give Corbyn some serious grief. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't use this opportunity to now give their readers a huge list of his previous quotes.
If it makes any difference is another matter.0 -
I love the fact that Fish Finger is a shorter price than Labour there.Pulpstar said:
Seat voted remain. Shd be safe.timmo said:
He will win by at least 4000jayfdee said:
Out and about today in Farron country, and there was the usual heavy display of Lib dem posters. It is fairly normal round here, I am still surprised he is so popular in an area that you would think should be Con.TudorRose said:
There are a load of Farron ones in fields along the M6 as you enter Cumbria. The sheep know which way to vote....kle4 said:The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
He is very active locally, and obviously popular, I will watch the results with great interest.0 -
In 2015, conservatives won by 6.5% equals majority of 10.0
-
Exit poll in 99 hours' time.0
-
Na. Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell changing their views is perfectly okay.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Hmm... I thought TMay was the 'u-turn' monopolist.Scrapheap_as_was said:Corb's attacking May currently on police cuts .... and also trying to stop this
twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/871426621202477057
twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/8714293296281477170 -
That interview was not Corbyn condemning all shoot to kill and Kuennsberg got a wrap over the knuckles by the BBC trust for misrepresenting him here0
-
The bit in bold, totally agree. I find it, on its own, not sufficient, but so many people love it. A 30-50 majority seems likely as a result, which is no disaster, but leaves Corbyn in place.SeanT said:
I have a slightly awkward situation online. The editor of my thrillers - very smart, likeable, and a huge supporter of my work when it needs it - has suddenly become a raging Corbynite on Twitter. Posting the most bat-shit memes and doo-lally bollocks. So I am having to mute her tweets or avoid them, lest we have a terrible argument which ruins my career....kle4 said:The definition of an awkward weekend - spending large chunks of it with two Corbynistas (one unexpectedly so) of the less forgiving variety who wish to discuss politics when I've just decided to vote Tory, and then discovering one of them (thankfully not both) is a 9/11 Truther as well. (both are thinking it will be a hung parliament)
Also, a landmark moment for me - I actually saw a political sign in a field that was not Tory or UKIP, but Labour!
More importantly, tho, is the mere fact she's buying it. She is middle aged, super bright, not a wide eyed naif.
I really think it is a semi-religious thing: once people are converted to Corbynism no evidence will ever budge them, and Corbyn is converting millions. Not particularly through his policies - though they like the hopey, changey, no-tuition-fee stuff - but just by being so unexpected and different. And apparently "authentic". By being *him*.
This says to me that Labour are deluded if they think they could win on these leftwing policies with "a better leader". Corbyn IS the best leader. The best man to present this crazy shit.
So Nick Palmer had a point, when many of us - me included - derided him. The bad news for Nick is that, if they lose next week, that's it. There isn't another, better, younger, saner Corbyn ready to take over. And he's 68.0
