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Thanks to Michael Fallon , Corbyn and Trident off the networks from early this morning. Apparently, he is their best media person.
So Tories will reduce tax for the richest.0 -
Well Soubry might struggle to get the kippers onboard there... probably a hold though.rottenborough said:Corbyn now in Broxtowe. Nick P's old stomping ground.
Supposedly a marginal.0 -
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Wayhey, several pairs of XX chromosomes make an appearance.calum said:Barcharts getting bigger by the day !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/870950937732542465
I fear that apart from their mums, some of the lads may not have much experience of talking to the opposite sex.-1 -
It depends on the degree of Unionist tactical voting, which starts with agreeing which party everyone is going to tactically vote for. If they do, and it would probably be the Lib Dems in this seat for historical reasons, I would say Argyll & Bute is winnable for the competition.NeilVW said:
Argyll & ButePulpstar said:
Lol - Surprised Nicola has been off to Oban though, SNP canvass returns must be showing some real trouble.FF43 said:Willie Rennie is actually quite funny
https://twitter.com/willie_rennie/status/870941448560103424
2015 result: SNP 44, LD 28, Con 15
YouGov model: SNP 36, Con 27, LD 24
Ashcroft model: SNP 39, Con 31-32, LD 18
Reasonable cushion for Brendan O'Hara on these models.
edit: corrected YouGov figures0 -
That's a health and safety concern on that traffic island.calum said:Barcharts getting bigger by the day !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/870950937732542465
A gust of wind from a large vehicle could have that barchart into the middle of the road.
Horrible tories playing with the lives of people.0 -
This twitter thread by Philip Cowley requires repeated mentioning. It's not just about young voters:
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/870580007743234048
The key tweet in the thread:
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/8705814734552883210 -
Clearly CCHQ feared they were too close to winning.surbiton said:Thanks to Michael Fallon , Corbyn and Trident off the networks from early this morning. Apparently, he is their best media person.
So Tories will reduce tax for the richest.0 -
I'm on at 7/4. V happy with that. Cashed out a couple of early con gain bets for losses. Got more Lab hold bets than Con gain bets now.Pulpstar said:I hope everyone is backing Labour in Bristol West:
Election Data @election_data 4h4 hours ago
Replying to @jonadowning
just 35,423 more 18-29s than over 65s0 -
12/1 for Lab. 2015 Green candidate supporting Lab, and the kipper unfriendly Soubry as the candidate for the Theresa May party.rottenborough said:Corbyn now in Broxtowe. Nick P's old stomping ground.
Supposedly a marginal.
Worth a punt methinks.0 -
According to the latest Opinium polling, the Tories have a 43% share of the vote, while Labour have 37%.0
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The Scottish Tory boss recognises Jeremy Corbyn as one of her key assets in this campaign. Many lifelong Labour voters are appalled that such a man is leading their party and cannot bring themselves to cast a vote that could see him become Prime Minister. Here the tightening national polls are useful to Miss Davidson. They act as a warning to those who oppose Corbyn — whether for his extreme views or because he is soft on independence — that he actually could walk into 10 Downing Street next Friday morning.
But no one, not even the terrorist-befriending, Trident-surrendering Mr Corbyn, can recruit first-time Tory voters like Nicola Sturgeon. The SNP leader’s refusal to set side independence and her decision to turn the Scottish Government into a 24/7 separatist campaign hub has infuriated voters who want her to concentrate on their schools and hospitals. Her botched attempt to exploit Brexit to force a second referendum was, for many, the final straw.
https://stephendaisley.com/2017/06/03/rebel-with-a-cause/0 -
But you are missing the point! Nevermindfoxinsoxuk said:0 -
For the Tories, these are far and away the worst seat projections we have seen through out the entire campaign.foxinsoxuk said:0 -
They seem to be standing for the Ruth Davidson party. Perhaps they fancy her... and are likely to be disappointed.Theuniondivvie said:
Wayhey, several pairs of XX chromosomes make an appearance.calum said:Barcharts getting bigger by the day !
https://twitter.com/PM4EastRen/status/870950937732542465
I fear that apart from their mums, some of the lads may not have much experience of talking to the opposite sex.0 -
@ScottyNational: News:Using John Swinney's old oil revenue calculator,it's estimated 12bn people attended the pro-Indy rally today,with more to be discovered0
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DNVs in the EUref ?AlastairMeeks said:This twitter thread by Philip Cowley requires repeated mentioning. It's not just about young voters:
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/870580007743234048
The key tweet in the thread:
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/870581473455288321
Hmmmmmmm0 -
Opinium is first out the blocks..0
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That is not how it has been reported on BBC radio today. There they are saying the Tories have committed to no tax rises period.surbiton said:Thanks to Michael Fallon , Corbyn and Trident off the networks from early this morning. Apparently, he is their best media person.
So Tories will reduce tax for the richest.
I have not seen what Fallon said directly but from what has been said on here this doesn't seem to gel with the way it is being reported.0 -
Yeah, if the SCons think that they're polling ahead of the LDs, they're definitely going to want to rollover.FF43 said:
It depends on the degree of Unionist tactical voting, which starts with agreeing which party everyone is going to tactically vote for. If they do, and it would probably be the Lib Dems in this seat for historical reasons, I would say Argyll & Bute is winnable for the competition.NeilVW said:
Argyll & ButePulpstar said:
Lol - Surprised Nicola has been off to Oban though, SNP canvass returns must be showing some real trouble.FF43 said:Willie Rennie is actually quite funny
https://twitter.com/willie_rennie/status/870941448560103424
2015 result: SNP 44, LD 28, Con 15
YouGov model: SNP 36, Con 27, LD 24
Ashcroft model: SNP 39, Con 31-32, LD 18
Reasonable cushion for Brendan O'Hara on these models.
edit: corrected YouGov figures
Of course if the LDs want to make it known that they'll take a bullet for the Union..0 -
Come on you can post the funny one's from that account that's okScott_P said:@ScottyNational: News:Using John Swinney's old oil revenue calculator,it's estimated 12bn people attended the pro-Indy rally today,with more to be discovered
But the shit one's really?0 -
rottenborough said:
According to the latest Opinium polling, the Tories have a 43% share of the vote, while Labour have 37%.
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I see pollsters publishing Confidence Intervals (? 95%, or 2 SD) is an encouraging phenomenon.isam said:
But you are missing the point! Nevermindfoxinsoxuk said:0 -
I'm assuming 'some' of these polls out today will have fieldwork that missed the period when QT was on last night?0
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And Kippers are standing.foxinsoxuk said:
12/1 for Lab. 2015 Green candidate supporting Lab, and the kipper unfriendly Soubry as the candidate for the Theresa May party.rottenborough said:Corbyn now in Broxtowe. Nick P's old stomping ground.
Supposedly a marginal.
Worth a punt methinks.0 -
'Mummy, I've peed the bed again'rottenborough said:According to the latest Opinium polling, the Tories have a 43% share of the vote, while Labour have 37%.
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Con maj 42 per Baxterrottenborough said:According to the latest Opinium polling, the Tories have a 43% share of the vote, while Labour have 37%.
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Oh Good God. None of them have probability samples.foxinsoxuk said:
I see pollsters publishing Confidence Intervals (? 95%, or 2 SD) is an encouraging phenomenon.isam said:
But you are missing the point! Nevermindfoxinsoxuk said:0 -
@DPJHodges: I would expect that by eve of poll the pollsters will have herded around the 4%-6% Tory lead range.
Oh...0 -
6% lead from polling people.
And now the reality from real voters:
https://twitter.com/DenisMacShane/status/8710196325216051200 -
I don't believe people who DNV is 15 or 16 will vote in 17. Don't believe it one bit.Pulpstar said:
DNVs in the EUref ?AlastairMeeks said:This twitter thread by Philip Cowley requires repeated mentioning. It's not just about young voters:
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/870580007743234048
The key tweet in the thread:
https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/870581473455288321
Hmmmmmmm0 -
Well, Corbyn probably sees himself as a modern day Robin Hood...Recidivist said:
He shows spirit.rottenborough said:Corbyn is in Hucknall, (Sherwood seat - Tory majority about 5K).
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IER = individual registration I assumeIshmael_Z said:
I am lost, what does "Just getting back to pre-IER levels gets the 18-24s to around 75% registered" mean? What is IER? And doesn't this thing of writing essays on twitter and chopping them up into 10 tweets kind of defeat the purpose?nunu said:
Ofcourse but young people are much more likely to guess they are registred when they are not. Something like 90+% of oldies are registered so the difference between how many oldies estimate they are registered but aren't is going to be a much, much smaller gap.OUT said:
And 91% is true? None of these numbers are accurate.nunu said:
??OUT said:
Umm read it againnunu said:Hahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahhahahahhahhahahhahhahahahahahhahahahhahahahhahhahahahhahahahhahahhhahahahahahhahahahhahahahahhahahhahahhahahahhahahahhahahhhhahahahhahahhhahahahhahahhahah.......
According to ICM 91% of yoof say they are registered but the electoral commision say it is only 66%!
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/871002688850468864
75% is still much lower then 91% .
Lots of people of all ages are missing off the registers.
ICM past weight filter wont help for this group because many of the 18-24 wont even have a history of voting. ICM have to rely on what the young claim they will do.
Basically they have a lot of work to do on registration otherwise polls are overstating 18-240 -
If UKIP tally 5% in the general election, I shall [INSERT HIGHLY INADVISABLE DECLARATION HERE].0
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YouGov publishes its core projection on its website, and the correct numbers are 308 and 261foxinsoxuk said:0 -
If Labour get anything like 37%, the Nats will be lucky to get 25 seats.Theuniondivvie said:
'Mummy, I've peed the bed again'rottenborough said:According to the latest Opinium polling, the Tories have a 43% share of the vote, while Labour have 37%.
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Ah, so many replies! I'll try to get to them!
I much prefer Apple Music, but IIRC Spotify is still more popular than Apple Music, but the latter is growing.foxinsoxuk said:
Fox jr just uses Spotify, and I often Spotify too, but I also like BBC 6 Music, Jack FM, and we often have Smooth FM on in our waiting area. The latter drives me mad because the playlist is the same dozen songs!The_Apocalypse said:
People still listen to music via the radio?Yorkcity said:Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.
The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
How about a playlist for the election?
I nominate:
Devil Woman (Cliff Richard)
Union Man (the Strawbs)
Elected (Alice Cooper)
Its a Sin (Pet Shop Boys)
Enola Gay (OMD)
Cruella De Ville (Disney)
and for the UKIPpers : We've Gotta Get out of this Place (The Animals)
I haven't heard of Jack FM!0 -
Ah, so many replies! I'll try to get to them!
I much prefer Apple Music, but IIRC Spotify is still more popular than Apple Music, but the latter is growing.foxinsoxuk said:
Fox jr just uses Spotify, and I often Spotify too, but I also like BBC 6 Music, Jack FM, and we often have Smooth FM on in our waiting area. The latter drives me mad because the playlist is the same dozen songs!The_Apocalypse said:
People still listen to music via the radio?Yorkcity said:Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.
The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
How about a playlist for the election?
I nominate:
Devil Woman (Cliff Richard)
Union Man (the Strawbs)
Elected (Alice Cooper)
Its a Sin (Pet Shop Boys)
Enola Gay (OMD)
Cruella De Ville (Disney)
and for the UKIPpers : We've Gotta Get out of this Place (The Animals)
I haven't heard of Jack FM!0 -
Win a lot of money I would hope!AlastairMeeks said:If UKIP tally 5% in the general election, I shall [INSERT HIGHLY INADVISABLE DECLARATION HERE].
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[INVOLVING PAUL NUTTALL]AlastairMeeks said:If UKIP tally 5% in the general election, I shall [INSERT HIGHLY INADVISABLE DECLARATION HERE].
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Scotland is I believe the only nation that has a mythical being as its national animal.Scott_P said:0 -
Hold on hasn't @Rochdalepioneers been finding the entire town voting Labour in his returns ?rottenborough said:0 -
Change the word Labour to Theresa May and you might be onto somethingalex. said:Are there any Labour supporters prepared to say that (even if they don't think it can possibly happen) that, possibly outside of a Tory landslide, the worst possible scenario for them is A Labour majority. Having to take responsibility for Brexit, with a negotiating position at odds with most of their Brexit supporters, and a totally unaffordable electoral platform which in large part they will feel compelled to deliver? Could be at 10% in the polls within a year?
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6% lead? That actually shouldn't lead anyone to bed wet - it's still a majority. Looking at those Election Data figures, the Tory lead, in reality, is probably a few percentage points higher.
Tories lucky though that this election ends in matter of days.0 -
I do wonder how many millions will get into the polling booth pencil in hand paper in front of them going in there with the intention of voting for a party but then changing their mind at the last minute. I could see a lot doing that this election, perhaps a lot of pensioners pissed off with May but can't vote for Corbyn and his soft stance on defence?0
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NEW THREAD
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NEW THREAD0
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lose money?AlastairMeeks said:If UKIP tally 5% in the general election, I shall [INSERT HIGHLY INADVISABLE DECLARATION HERE].
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Is there a market for new Tory leader?FrancisUrquhart said:
If those were the seat totals, we are in for total chaos.IanB2 said:YouGov has updated its rolling panel poll this lunchtime. The vote shares are unchanged at 42/38, but the projected seat totals are now 308/261/10/47.
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Yougov put the Tories on 308 seats, so they are estimating an assymetrical distribution.Pulpstar said:
Oh Good God. None of them have probability samples.foxinsoxuk said:
I see pollsters publishing Confidence Intervals (? 95%, or 2 SD) is an encouraging phenomenon.isam said:
But you are missing the point! Nevermindfoxinsoxuk said:
Not good for the babyeaters though, and they do have some surprising Lab gains.
A bit of fun to bait the Tories with!
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Jack FM is around the Solent. Mandatory on the Wight!The_Apocalypse said:Ah, so many replies! I'll try to get to them!
I much prefer Apple Music, but IIRC Spotify is still more popular than Apple Music, but the latter is growing.foxinsoxuk said:
Fox jr just uses Spotify, and I often Spotify too, but I also like BBC 6 Music, Jack FM, and we often have Smooth FM on in our waiting area. The latter drives me mad because the playlist is the same dozen songs!The_Apocalypse said:
People still listen to music via the radio?Yorkcity said:Liar liar the The T May song is number 4 in the charts number ,2 in the I tune down loads.Some going to say it is not been played on radio stations.
The song has been all over my social media feeds. No one under the age of 35 (surely?) is seriously getting their music mainly from radio, so it not being played on their doesn't matter. As long as it's avaliable on Apple Music or Spotify, that's all that matters.
How about a playlist for the election?
I nominate:
Devil Woman (Cliff Richard)
Union Man (the Strawbs)
Elected (Alice Cooper)
Its a Sin (Pet Shop Boys)
Enola Gay (OMD)
Cruella De Ville (Disney)
and for the UKIPpers : We've Gotta Get out of this Place (The Animals)
I haven't heard of Jack FM!0 -
I wondered that as well, but if the Wiki article is correct there are no flying airframes extant and no display versions likely to be at the show. Given the Torbay airshow website specifies it's a Typhoon FGR4 http://torbayairshow.com/air-displays/ , it's the Eurofighter jet, not the Hawker prop job.Richard_Tyndall said:
I suspect looking at the rest of the list it was definitely the Hawker version.viewcode said:
Assuming you meant this Typhoon, not this Typhoon, you couldn't have picked a more Remainian aircraft.MarqueeMark said:Concanvasser said:
Thanks Mark! Hope Torbay is as sunny as Bedfordshire today.MarqueeMark said:
I think your cut and paste has gone a bit awry - for clarity, Concanvasser was in Luton South, not MarqueeMark!Concanvasser said:
The area I was in was mostly WWC Council house and lower middle class 1930s. Plenty of UKIP and Labour to Blue switching. Very little evidence this is a Labour seat. A more posters for Gavin but very few in total.
Hitchin and Harpenden taking well to their new black MP to be. Rather a change from Peter Lilley I expect.
Spectacular - the Torbay airshow today - Red Arrows, Lancaster. Spitfire, Hurricane, Typhoon.... How much more of Brexit can you get in the air?
A pity: the WW2 Typhoon is one of the best aircraft Britain's ever produced, and a good example of the need for a dedicated ground-attack aircraft in close liaison with the infantry.
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Failing in my duty in reading over 1000 posts perhaps PBers will take pity on poor JackW as his wallet has today all the numerical confidence of a Diane Abbott economic statement.
Any new polls today and what's the Tory Bedwetting Index?
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Just logged onto YouTube to see an "only the LibDems can win here" ad video. Quite impressive targeting (I live in Kingston & Surbiton)0
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https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870973892474671104JackW said:Failing in my duty in reading over 1000 posts perhaps PBers will take pity on poor JackW as his wallet has today all the numerical confidence of a Diane Abbott economic statement.
Any new polls today and what's the Tory Bedwetting Index?0 -
(In this seat) I came home from work the other day to find two dodgy bar charts, one from the Lib Dems based on the 2015 election and one from the Tories based on the recent locals, both designed to demonstrate that they were the stronger challenger. My vote will be motivated by Brexit rather than independence though.FF43 said:
It depends on the degree of Unionist tactical voting, which starts with agreeing which party everyone is going to tactically vote for. If they do, and it would probably be the Lib Dems in this seat for historical reasons, I would say Argyll & Bute is winnable for the competition.NeilVW said:
Argyll & ButePulpstar said:
Lol - Surprised Nicola has been off to Oban though, SNP canvass returns must be showing some real trouble.FF43 said:Willie Rennie is actually quite funny
https://twitter.com/willie_rennie/status/870941448560103424
2015 result: SNP 44, LD 28, Con 15
YouGov model: SNP 36, Con 27, LD 24
Ashcroft model: SNP 39, Con 31-32, LD 18
Reasonable cushion for Brendan O'Hara on these models.
edit: corrected YouGov figures0 -
Comedy results has the SNP down to 3%. That's really low for them. 5% is more common. 3.0 would be equivalent to about 36%. 3.49 would be about 41%.
I would like that to be true but I am doubtful.0
