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Punters take time to reflect on the polls.... Hahahahahahahaha!! Have you not been on here the past week?!? There was not a nano-second of reflection before the Pampers needed changing!IanB2 said:
I would expect the betting to lag the polls, partly because punters take time to reflect on the polls and news, and partly because of the weight of money already on the table?ThreeQuidder said:
Midpoint 363. Majority 76 (78 if Bercow doesn't count). Depressing?peter_from_putney said:The Tories are a further 2 seats lower on the spreads this morning at 360 - 366 seats. Day after day, they keep on sliding lower and lower. Nothing and nobody seems able to halt their decline which is all most depressing for members of the Blue Team.
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Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
The Brexit vote was for reclaimed sovereignty and controlled immigration, the Remain vote to keep as close economic ties to the EU as now with a tiny Federalist vote, the UK voted Leave and so sovereignty and controlled immigration come first and if May wins on that platform that is how Brexit will be for the next 5 years. The government's other economic policies to make Britain more prosperous than Labour are not linked to Brexit beyond a corporation tax cutSouthamObserver said:
When you promise more prosperity that's what you're promising. When you are promising Brexit that is what you are promising. When you are promising more prosperity and Brexit then that is what you are promising. There really is no getting round that, I'm afraid. But if you wish to believe there is, that's fine by me!HYUFD said:
A plan for a more prosperous Britain than Labour that says nothing about Brexit being the cause of that and it also includes the words 'stronger' ie with reclaimed sovereignty and fairer ie with fairer and more controlled immigration rulesSouthamObserver said:
She is promising a Brexit that brings more prosperity.HYUFD said:
The Tory manifesto says nothing about a big boost to economic ill have endorsed that BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Read May's intro to the Tory manifesto.HYUFD said:
Nope May said there were some advantages in staying in the EU but she would see Brexit through as the British people wanted with no free movement, no 100 billion euros to the EU and departure from the single market and if she wins a majority she will have a mandate for that from the British peopleSouthamObserver said:
Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.Charles said:
The British people made the decision to leave and, like a good public servant, she will do what her employers instructRoger said:FPT.
Dimbleby asked the telling question;
'You say you have called the election because of Brexit.
Last week you said 'Leaving the EU would make us MORE prosperous'
Last year you said' Leaving the EU would make us LESS prosperous'
"What's changed?"
"A plan for a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain"
That is what she will be judged on. If you do not agree, fair enough. We'll see what happens.0 -
Okay, finally did it. Bought Con seats, £2 at 367 on Spreadex. First foray into the spreads.0
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Most amusing result of the night would be if the Tories beat Labour in leeds NW. Now that WOULD be proof that the younglings cba to get to the polling booth.0
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About to start phoning again now, canvassing tomorrowDavid_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
cheers - will keep an eye outrottenborough said:
Paper only at moment. I think they put stuff online a day or two after the magazine comes out to try and encourage buying it first.BannedInParis said:
is there a link for this at all, please? or is it paper onlyrottenborough said:
The voters will halt the decline when they turn out on 8th.peter_from_putney said:The Tories are a further 2 seats lower on the spreads this morning at 360 - 366 seats. Day after day, they keep on sliding lower and lower. Nothing and nobody seems able to halt their decline which is all most depressing for members of the Blue Team.
Newstatesman this weekend has long article by editor on Labour campaign. Time after time he has quotes from MPs and activists saying how badly they are going to do in reality. West Bromwich, Don Valley and so on are all in play. On a "Cliff edge" is one description from a canvasser.0 -
Oh please god let that be a Labour PPB next week.isam said:0 -
That spread looks about right for the known data. It opened way too high so no surprise it's been slowly drifting down.IanB2 said:
I would expect the betting to lag the polls, partly because punters take time to reflect on the polls and news, and partly because of the weight of money already on the table?ThreeQuidder said:
Midpoint 363. Majority 76 (78 if Bercow doesn't count). Depressing?peter_from_putney said:The Tories are a further 2 seats lower on the spreads this morning at 360 - 366 seats. Day after day, they keep on sliding lower and lower. Nothing and nobody seems able to halt their decline which is all most depressing for members of the Blue Team.
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Fair point! Of course not all punters are as tuned in as we are and there are lots who will talk early but be much more cautious in risking their money (cf Sandpit just downthread!)MarqueeMark said:
Punters take time to reflect on the polls.... Hahahahahahahaha!! Have you not been on here the past week?!? There was not a nano-second of reflection before the Pampers needed changing!IanB2 said:
I would expect the betting to lag the polls, partly because punters take time to reflect on the polls and news, and partly because of the weight of money already on the table?ThreeQuidder said:
Midpoint 363. Majority 76 (78 if Bercow doesn't count). Depressing?peter_from_putney said:The Tories are a further 2 seats lower on the spreads this morning at 360 - 366 seats. Day after day, they keep on sliding lower and lower. Nothing and nobody seems able to halt their decline which is all most depressing for members of the Blue Team.
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Why do they put a bullying yob like Boris Johnson and a twit like Michael Fallon at front of stage?Chris said:Fallon really is a loose canon, isn't he?
They will be under pressure now to clarify which is right - "absolutely" no rise, or just "no plans" for a rise. If they say Fallon was wrong it will look terrible. Another tricky decision for May.
They are indeed exactly that. Credit is due to Nicola Sturgeon for saying she will support Labour if she holds the balance. Either support for a Labour minority government or a full-scale Labour-SNP coalition would be far preferable to what we've got at the moment.malcolmg said:
No used to in it , they are the NASTY LYING TOERAG party.marke09 said:They used to call the Tory party the nasty party - some Labour supporters should look at themselves first
(BTW, will Sturgeon drop her call for a second referendum if Jeremy Corbyn promises that Britain will stay in the single market and customs union?)-1 -
If the lag is about a week, it should level off soon.FF43 said:
There will be a lag between an actual fall in the voters' intentions and showing up on the markets. The questions are whether the decline will continue into next week or possibly the decline has already halted but isn't showing up yet.peter_from_putney said:The Tories are a further 2 seats lower on the spreads this morning at 360 - 366 seats. Day after day, they keep on sliding lower and lower. Nothing and nobody seems able to halt their decline which is all most depressing for members of the Blue Team.
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Because we are not sad bellends with no life.David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
She is raisiing the personal allowence, so actually she is cutting income taxes for most. She is also raising the rate at which people will pay 40% not to £50,000.foxinsoxuk said:FWIW May has not ruled out income taxrises:
https://twitter.com/i/moments/870944674231353344
This is what May should say, we are actually cutting taxes!0 -
I've lost my other half to a House of Cards marathon.....David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
It irritates me when people claim either that by having a company you only get taxed at corporation tax rates, or like this, that you only pay 7.5% on dividends. First the profit gets corporation tax taken away - so thats 20% gone. Then you pay tax on dividends. Effective tax rate is now higher than income tax if the same amount was taken as salary (20% + 80% * 38.1% = 50.48%). Rant over:-)FrankBooth said:
I'd be far more concerned about dividends. As a self employed person your best bet is to set up your own company and pay yourself in dividends - taxed at 7.5%. I don't have the figures to hand but for someone on 40k you can easily halve your tax liability.rottenborough said:
Hold, have I missed something? Fallon said "high earners" will not face tax rises. Nothing about, for example, Class 4 NICS for self-employed.Henry said:Lynton Crosby seems to have forgotten:
1) If in a hole stop digging.
2) A message of 'flip-flopping' can be highly damaging - as seen during the John Kerry's presidential campaign.
We already had: TM the 'Remainer' organising 'Brexit'; TM the PM saying 'no election' then calling an election; and, deviation from the brand new manifesto with the social care U-turn and on social housing.
But today: 'No increase on income tax" .... Labour supporter will be searching for their flip-flops to start waving about!0 -
This is Fake News.malcolmg said:
Because we are not sad bellends with no life.David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
My best results from the outset have been 76-98 majority and LDs sub 20. I don't see any reason to change my position as long as the Tory share hovers around 44%.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Quidder, it'd get me a 7 winner
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Speak for yourselfmalcolmg said:
Because we are not sad bellends with no life.David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
Hmm, put her in a bad spot , I think any back peddling on referendum would be dangerous. However no elections for a spell so give time to perhaps get over it but doubt it.Cyan said:
Why do they put a bullying yob like Boris Johnson and a twit like Michael Fallon at front of stage?Chris said:Fallon really is a loose canon, isn't he?
They will be under pressure now to clarify which is right - "absolutely" no rise, or just "no plans" for a rise. If they say Fallon was wrong it will look terrible. Another tricky decision for May.
They are indeed exactly that. Credit is due to Nicola Sturgeon for saying she will support Labour if she holds the balance. Either support for a Labour minority government or a full-scale Labour-SNP coalition would be far preferable to what we've got at the moment.malcolmg said:
No used to in it , they are the NASTY LYING TOERAG party.marke09 said:They used to call the Tory party the nasty party - some Labour supporters should look at themselves first
(BTW, will Sturgeon drop her call for a second referendum if Jeremy Corbyn promises that Britain will stay in the single market and customs union?)0 -
Because I'm not a member of ANY political party?David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
Is new series out thenMarqueeMark said:
I've lost my other half to a House of Cards marathon.....David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
Mr. Sandpit, I was considering that as an over bet on Ladbrokes. Decided to opt for 375-399 at 4.5 instead (to complement 350-374).
Mr. Quidder, if the Lib Dems are under 20 seats, under 10% of the vote, and retain/win Richmond Park, that'd be splendid.
Some very good tips from Mr. Pulpstar and Mr. Putney on the yellows.0 -
You don't have to be a member to deliver leaflets.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Because I'm not a member of ANY political party?David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
I'm just hoping my winners pay for my losers.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, I was considering that as an over bet on Ladbrokes. Decided to opt for 375-399 at 4.5 instead (to complement 350-374).
Mr. Quidder, if the Lib Dems are under 20 seats, under 10% of the vote, and retain/win Richmond Park, that'd be splendid.
Some very good tips from Mr. Pulpstar and Mr. Putney on the yellows.0 -
Not in Scotland SNP are stiffing us, most annoying given the shedload paid already.nunu said:
She is raisiing the personal allowence, so actually she is cutting income taxes for most. She is also raising the rate at which people will pay 40% not to £50,000.foxinsoxuk said:FWIW May has not ruled out income taxrises:
https://twitter.com/i/moments/870944674231353344
This is what May should say, we are actually cutting taxes!0 -
Hmm, Eurocopter AS365 - they're about £10,000 an hour. Just saying.Scott_P said:ThunderNats Are GO!!!!!!!!!
https://twitter.com/fergoodness/status/8709154639828377600 -
Can you do some for Wes and for Lee, have a few overs on turnout.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Because I'm not a member of ANY political party?David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
malcolmg said:
Because we are not sad bellends with no life.David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?
Just PB lurkers and posters.
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Reporter: "Do you rule out hanging terrorists?"Charles said:
Yes - it's a classic case of answering a specific question and mischievous newspapers trying to expand it to raise an issue about something that wasn't asked.rottenborough said:
Eh? This is from the article:surbiton said:
FAKE NEWS.MaxPB said:
Fallon has just said no income tax rises "across the spectrum" so one assumes that won't now happen. Personally I'd be really surprised if they put up income tax, NI not so much because they tried before the election and failed.surbiton said:
She did not give any assurance about Income Tax payers other than general platitudes about what a good party the Tories are about taxes.MaxPB said:
Obviously, because they want to put up NI.surbiton said:She could have said in a straight-forward manner that taxes will not be increased. She skirted that.
TAX BOMBSHELL
The Tories have form on this matter. Thatcher's denial about VAT followed by increase from 8% to 15% in just a few weeks. Major also increased NIC from 9% to 11% after denying it.
This is The Telegraph headline.
No income tax rises for high earners under Tory government, minister reveals
Read for yourself. No such words like "across the spectrum". Stop making it up.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/no-income-tax-rises-high-earners-tory-government-minister-reveals/
No such assurance has been given about basic rate taxpayers.
"Asked if high earners could confidently vote Conservative next week, safe in the knowledge that their income tax would not go up, Sir Michael said: “Yes. You’ve seen our record..."
Politician: "Yes, we will not execute terrorists"
Story: "Politican does not rule out executing toddlers"0 -
The first £5000 of dividends this year are tax free, and by splitting shares with a spouse, it is possible to split the dividend income. It works best for higher tax payers of course. That is how my modest private paractice works.Balrog said:
It irritates me when people claim either that by having a company you only get taxed at corporation tax rates, or like this, that you only pay 7.5% on dividends. First the profit gets corporation tax taken away - so thats 20% gone. Then you pay tax on dividends. Effective tax rate is now higher than income tax if the same amount was taken as salary (20% + 80% * 38.1% = 50.48%). Rant over:-)FrankBooth said:
I'd be far more concerned about dividends. As a self employed person your best bet is to set up your own company and pay yourself in dividends - taxed at 7.5%. I don't have the figures to hand but for someone on 40k you can easily halve your tax liability.rottenborough said:
Hold, have I missed something? Fallon said "high earners" will not face tax rises. Nothing about, for example, Class 4 NICS for self-employed.Henry said:Lynton Crosby seems to have forgotten:
1) If in a hole stop digging.
2) A message of 'flip-flopping' can be highly damaging - as seen during the John Kerry's presidential campaign.
We already had: TM the 'Remainer' organising 'Brexit'; TM the PM saying 'no election' then calling an election; and, deviation from the brand new manifesto with the social care U-turn and on social housing.
But today: 'No increase on income tax" .... Labour supporter will be searching for their flip-flops to start waving about!0 -
No.Cyan said:will Sturgeon drop her call for a second referendum if Jeremy Corbyn promises that Britain will stay in the single market and customs union?
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The UK's Brexit path will determine the performance of the economy. Greater prosperity, or not, is tied to it totally.HYUFD said:
The Brexit vote was for reclaimed sovereignty and controlled immigration, the Remain vote to keep as close economic ties to the EU as now with a tiny Federalist vote, the UK voted Leave and so sovereignty and controlled immigration come first and if May wins on that platform that is how Brexit will be for the next 5 years. The government's other economic policies to make Britain more prosperous than Labour are not linked to Brexit beyond a corporation tax cutSouthamObserver said:
When you promise more prosperity that's what you're promising. When you are promising Brexit that is what you are promising. When you are promising more prosperity and Brexit then that is what you are promising. There really is no getting round that, I'm afraid. But if you wish to believe there is, that's fine by me!HYUFD said:
A plan for a more prosperous Britain than Labour that says nothing about Brexit being the cause of that and it also includes the words 'stronger' ie with reclaimed sovereignty and fairer ie with fairer and more controlled immigration rulesSouthamObserver said:
She is promising a Brexit that brings more prosperity.HYUFD said:
The Tory manifesto says nothing about a big boost to economic ill have endorsed that BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Read May's intro to the Tory manifesto.HYUFD said:
Nope May said there were some advantages in staying in the EU but she would see Brexit through as the British people wanted with no free movement, no 100 billion euros to the EU and departure from the single market and if she wins a majority she will have a mandate for that from the British peopleSouthamObserver said:
Yep - her call is to decide what kind of Brexit it will be. She has promised to make voters more prosperous and will be judged on that.Charles said:
The British people made the decision to leave and, like a good public servant, she will do what her employers instructRoger said:FPT.
Dimbleby asked the telling question;
'You say you have called the election because of Brexit.
Last week you said 'Leaving the EU would make us MORE prosperous'
Last year you said' Leaving the EU would make us LESS prosperous'
"What's changed?"
"A plan for a stronger, fairer, more prosperous Britain"
That is what she will be judged on. If you do not agree, fair enough. We'll see what happens.
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For all the rubbishing of local elections, they are at least real votes. Is it really possible for there to be such a swing towards Labour in a month?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39795422
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Nukes nuke Corbyn? I remain sceptical, and a quick trip to the shops to look at the late editions of the papers finds only the Mail has splashed it. But to be on the safe side, Labour needs to come out swinging on the Tories' police and army cuts in order to shore up the "safe and secure" vote.SouthamObserver said:
The Trident and nukes equivocations from Corbyn crystallise the concerns voters have about him and security policy generally that his past create. Put simply, people worry he will not protect them and their families to the extent May will. And that is what will ensure Labour loses. In Brexit Britainyou may be able to win from the left, but you cannot equivocate or be regarded as weak on security and defence issues.Scott_P said:
As noted on QT last night, Trident is a multi-Parliament commitment.Jonathan said:Wondering if anyone really thinks that 'pushing the button ' is actually going to come into play in the next five years and should be the deciding factor in this election.
The question is less whether Corbyn would push the button in the next 5 years (we know he wouldn't) but whether he will decommission it in the next 5 years so the next PM couldn't0 -
Lol Oban ?!
That's in Argyll and Bute. Is the SNP intelligence suggesting either 20 Tory seats or 8 Lib Dem ones ?0 -
It was okay until the end - they should have left out the "do you hate me / obviously" quip.isam said:0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, surely "I'm hoping all my bets win"?
I'm hoping the election is both good for the country, and wipes away the lingering annoyance of that stupid late safety car in Monaco. I've rarely been so annoyed by a bet failing to come off.0 -
Labour majority 1,451, Kippers in play 6,649peter_from_putney said:
Probably chasing after neighbouring, highly marginal Dewsbury.Typo said:May looks to be in Huddersfield. Make of that what you will.
The Tories have absolutely no chance of displacing long-serving Barry Sheerman in rock solid Labour safe Huddersfield itself.
BTW Earlier in the campaign, I backed Labour to hold Dewsbury, from where I am typing this, at odds of 4/1 which have now narrowed to 2/1. It smacks of being a lost cause for the Tories, where for such a winnable seat they selected a 22 year old inexperienced supermarket assistant ..... I mean no disrespect, but this is a seat they should have gobbled up with ease
So clearly winnable and on paper an odd choice of candidate! But "supermarket assistant" is underplaying her a wee bit, no? Ex caseworker for Matthew Hancock and a candidate in a no-hope seat in 2015,, church minister, currently working for a debt-counselling charity, doesn't seem to have worked at a supermarket for 3 years...0 -
No idea.isam said:
Then why pick a candidate at all?Richard_Tyndall said:
The Tory MP now under investigation is a former deputy leader of UKIP and UKIP had already said they would not put up candidates in seats where the sitting MP was clearly a Brexiteer.isam said:
A bit strange that UKIP didn't stand a better known candidate in Thanet South isn't it? They must have known there was a fair chance of scandalThreeQuidder said:0 -
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+1. I'm off to spend the day in the pub playing darts and the evening in a restaurant eating, drinking and being merry, for tomorrow we may have polls.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Because I'm not a member of ANY political party?David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
Hence why it would be hilariousnunu said:
That seat has seen second biggest rise in voter registrations.Pulpstar said:Most amusing result of the night would be if the Tories beat Labour in leeds NW. Now that WOULD be proof that the younglings cba to get to the polling booth.
I'm guessing the biggest is........... Sheffield Central ?
Also the youngest seat in the country (I think)0 -
Good luck, but my advice would be to set yourself a stop loss and stick to it. Also if you allow your bet through to polling day, be very alert as regards the exit polls should these show an adverse result for you and remember the spread-betting firms will be open for most of the night.Sandpit said:Okay, finally did it. Bought Con seats, £2 at 367 on Spreadex. First foray into the spreads.
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In which case why are they putting up a candidate and fighting it hard:Richard_Tyndall said:
The Tory MP now under investigation is a former deputy leader of UKIP and UKIP had already said they would not put up candidates in seats where the sitting MP was clearly a Brexiteer.isam said:
A bit strange that UKIP didn't stand a better known candidate in Thanet South isn't it? They must have known there was a fair chance of scandalThreeQuidder said:
"More than 500 activists braved the wind and rain to campaign all day in the constituency"0 -
It is impossible for all my bets to win, Derby North can only have 1 winner.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, surely "I'm hoping all my bets win"?
I'm hoping the election is both good for the country, and wipes away the lingering annoyance of that stupid late safety car in Monaco. I've rarely been so annoyed by a bet failing to come off.0 -
Well I guess people might find it a bit harder to vote Mckinley now. I still reckon he'll win though.logical_song said:
In which case why are they putting up a candidate and fighting it hard:Richard_Tyndall said:
The Tory MP now under investigation is a former deputy leader of UKIP and UKIP had already said they would not put up candidates in seats where the sitting MP was clearly a Brexiteer.isam said:
A bit strange that UKIP didn't stand a better known candidate in Thanet South isn't it? They must have known there was a fair chance of scandalThreeQuidder said:
"More than 500 activists braved the wind and rain to campaign all day in the constituency"0 -
I think Theresa May is trying to lose an unlosable election.
I think everyone in the country knows the Tories aren't going to raise income tax, any budget which tried to do so would not make it through Parliamentary scrutiny. So just come out and say it, no income tax rises for the next five years.0 -
Realistically this won't lose more than a couple of hundred in a VERY extreme scenario though. However buying Lab supremacy at ~£10 - 100 a point as a certain someone did back in 2015...peter_from_putney said:
Good luck, but my advice would be to set yourself a stop loss and stick to it. Also if you allow your bet through to polling day, be very alert as regards the exit polls should these show an adverse result for you and remember the spread-betting firms will be open for most of the night.Sandpit said:Okay, finally did it. Bought Con seats, £2 at 367 on Spreadex. First foray into the spreads.
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I think also that in Dewsbury there is a significant Muslim Labour vote, that may well be depressed by Ramadan, when people have a prolonged fast, and give up worldly things.MyBurningEars said:
Labour majority 1,451, Kippers in play 6,649peter_from_putney said:
Probably chasing after neighbouring, highly marginal Dewsbury.Typo said:May looks to be in Huddersfield. Make of that what you will.
The Tories have absolutely no chance of displacing long-serving Barry Sheerman in rock solid Labour safe Huddersfield itself.
BTW Earlier in the campaign, I backed Labour to hold Dewsbury, from where I am typing this, at odds of 4/1 which have now narrowed to 2/1. It smacks of being a lost cause for the Tories, where for such a winnable seat they selected a 22 year old inexperienced supermarket assistant ..... I mean no disrespect, but this is a seat they should have gobbled up with ease
So clearly winnable and on paper an odd choice of candidate! But "supermarket assistant" is underplaying her a wee bit, no? Ex caseworker for Matthew Hancock and a candidate in a no-hope seat in 2015,, church minister, currently working for a debt-counselling charity, doesn't seem to have worked at a supermarket for 3 years...
Ramadan may influence a number of seats, but most would be safe Labour and of course there is postal voting. Dewsbury is one of the few marginals.-1 -
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Child poverty ? Seriously ? A statistical approximation to zero in the UK.calum said:Simple SNP messaging for the last week
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/8705469387935375360 -
Probably not THAT much but remember London, Liverpool Manchester etc etc didn't have council elections.isam said:For all the rubbishing of local elections, they are at least real votes. Is it really possible for there to be such a swing towards Labour in a month?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39795422
Cardiff, Newport, and Swansea did and labour did better then predicted.
Think we will see is an assymetirical labour rise. A surge in the big cities flatlining everywhere else.0 -
But NI appears to be fair game for rises. Fallon is relying on most voters not understanding the difference (despite that face that for basic rate tax payers, employers and employees' NI is higher than income tax)MaxPB said:I think Theresa May is trying to lose an unlosable election.
I think everyone in the country knows the Tories aren't going to raise income tax, any budget which tried to do so would not make it through Parliamentary scrutiny. So just come out and say it, no income tax rises for the next five years.0 -
Thanks. Will try and stay sober enough until the result's clear one way or the other, will decide what to do on the exit poll but at £2 a seat I'll probably just let it run - although TBH if it's going to be a hung Parliament then a hundred quid loss is going to be the least of my worries!peter_from_putney said:
Good luck, but my advice would be to set yourself a stop loss and stick to it. Also if you allow your bet through to polling day, be very alert as regards the exit polls should these show an adverse result for you and remember the spread-betting firms will be open for most of the night.Sandpit said:Okay, finally did it. Bought Con seats, £2 at 367 on Spreadex. First foray into the spreads.
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The problem with that is as soon as you've ruled out increasing one tax the question moves on to the next then the next then the next until you get to a "no comment" and you're landed with "Politician refuses to rule out VAT increase...."MaxPB said:I think Theresa May is trying to lose an unlosable election.
I think everyone in the country knows the Tories aren't going to raise income tax, any budget which tried to do so would not make it through Parliamentary scrutiny. So just come out and say it, no income tax rises for the next five years.0 -
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I suspect so, but between scandal and the collapse of UKIP, I have had a little dabble on Labour, who came a respectable 3rd before and could sneak through the middle.Pulpstar said:
Well I guess people might find it a bit harder to vote Mckinley now. I still reckon he'll win though.logical_song said:
In which case why are they putting up a candidate and fighting it hard:Richard_Tyndall said:
The Tory MP now under investigation is a former deputy leader of UKIP and UKIP had already said they would not put up candidates in seats where the sitting MP was clearly a Brexiteer.isam said:
A bit strange that UKIP didn't stand a better known candidate in Thanet South isn't it? They must have known there was a fair chance of scandalThreeQuidder said:
"More than 500 activists braved the wind and rain to campaign all day in the constituency"0 -
Leading on Sky news , Michael Fallon the attack dog who is now making May defend.The Tories are like Arsenal this season under Wenger do not qualify for Europe but win a domestic cup.MaxPB said:I think Theresa May is trying to lose an unlosable election.
I think everyone in the country knows the Tories aren't going to raise income tax, any budget which tried to do so would not make it through Parliamentary scrutiny. So just come out and say it, no income tax rises for the next five years.0 -
The Government have produced a Clear Plan for Brexit, which isn't actually a plan but rather a wishlist. Two of the wishes (End ECJ jurisdiction and control over EU immigration) can only be achieved through leaving the EU; the remainder are better served by remaining in the EU: strengthen the UK Union; keep the Irish Common Travel Area; worker protection, secure cross-border rights for UK and EU citizens; free trade with European markets; trade agreements with third-party countries; European co-operation for science and innovation; European co-operation on security.HYUFD said:The Brexit vote was for reclaimed sovereignty and controlled immigration, the Remain vote to keep as close economic ties to the EU as now with a tiny Federalist vote, the UK voted Leave and so sovereignty and controlled immigration come first and if May wins on that platform that is how Brexit will be for the next 5 years. The government's other economic policies to make Britain more prosperous than Labour are not linked to Brexit beyond a corporation tax cut
It doesn't say how those somewhat incompatible objectives will be resolved. A reasonable interpretation is that they will try to get as much as possible of the first two objectives wihile conceding no more than is necessary on the remaining eight. But it is all up for negotiations.
0 -
The Nats have taken the day off to march instead...David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
Yes I think NI is definitely going up by a penny on each side.not_on_fire said:
But NI appears to be fair game for rises. Fallon is relying on most voters not understanding the difference (despite that face that for basic rate tax payers, employers and employees' NI is higher than income tax)MaxPB said:I think Theresa May is trying to lose an unlosable election.
I think everyone in the country knows the Tories aren't going to raise income tax, any budget which tried to do so would not make it through Parliamentary scrutiny. So just come out and say it, no income tax rises for the next five years.0 -
New resource from Election Data:Pulpstar said:
Hence why it would be hilariousnunu said:
That seat has seen second biggest rise in voter registrations.Pulpstar said:Most amusing result of the night would be if the Tories beat Labour in leeds NW. Now that WOULD be proof that the younglings cba to get to the polling booth.
I'm guessing the biggest is........... Sheffield Central ?
Also the youngest seat in the country (I think)
http://election-data.co.uk/how-many-young-or-old-voters-in-your-seat0 -
I would guess that she doesn't want to give a hostage to fortune in the event of a tidying up exercise producing a rise for some group or other, a bit like the fuss over the NI rise in the last budget.MaxPB said:I think Theresa May is trying to lose an unlosable election.
I think everyone in the country knows the Tories aren't going to raise income tax, any budget which tried to do so would not make it through Parliamentary scrutiny. So just come out and say it, no income tax rises for the next five years.
0 -
Not really since no VAT increase in in the manifesto. I think Fallon has been unhelpful, but I doubt he went to the Telegraph without Lynton's say so which leads me to believe that Theresa isn't singing from the correct hymn sheet.CarlottaVance said:
The problem with that is as soon as you've ruled out increasing one tax the question moves on to the next then the next then the next until you get to a "no comment" and you're landed with "Politician refuses to rule out VAT increase...."MaxPB said:I think Theresa May is trying to lose an unlosable election.
I think everyone in the country knows the Tories aren't going to raise income tax, any budget which tried to do so would not make it through Parliamentary scrutiny. So just come out and say it, no income tax rises for the next five years.0 -
No lurking from me an dno helping lying politicians get rich either.David_Evershed said:malcolmg said:
Because we are not sad bellends with no life.David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?
Just PB lurkers and posters.0 -
Hold on. This might impact the exit polls if (repeat if) muslim voters show up en masse at twilight, after the pollsters have sent the numbers off to be crunched in time for 10 o'clock.foxinsoxuk said:
I think also that in Dewsbury there is a significant Muslim Labour vote, that may well be depressed by Ramadan, when people have a prolonged fast, and give up worldly things.MyBurningEars said:
Labour majority 1,451, Kippers in play 6,649peter_from_putney said:
Probably chasing after neighbouring, highly marginal Dewsbury.Typo said:May looks to be in Huddersfield. Make of that what you will.
The Tories have absolutely no chance of displacing long-serving Barry Sheerman in rock solid Labour safe Huddersfield itself.
BTW Earlier in the campaign, I backed Labour to hold Dewsbury, from where I am typing this, at odds of 4/1 which have now narrowed to 2/1. It smacks of being a lost cause for the Tories, where for such a winnable seat they selected a 22 year old inexperienced supermarket assistant ..... I mean no disrespect, but this is a seat they should have gobbled up with ease
So clearly winnable and on paper an odd choice of candidate! But "supermarket assistant" is underplaying her a wee bit, no? Ex caseworker for Matthew Hancock and a candidate in a no-hope seat in 2015,, church minister, currently working for a debt-counselling charity, doesn't seem to have worked at a supermarket for 3 years...
Ramadan may influence a number of seats, but most would be safe Labour and of course there is postal voting. Dewsbury is one of the few marginals.0 -
Also, if we compare like with like, at the time of the local elections the polls were ALL showing Tory leads in the 15-20 range, and they're ALL now in the 3-12 range. It's difficult to think that this isn't a genuine shift of opinion since the locals, of around a swing of 5 points. It might be interesting to see a projection of the results if every constituency voted as it did last month plus say 8 for Lab and minus 2 for Tories, and then make a separate assessment for the cities that didn't vote.nunu said:
Probably not THAT much but remember London, Liverpool Manchester etc etc didn't have council elections.isam said:For all the rubbishing of local elections, they are at least real votes. Is it really possible for there to be such a swing towards Labour in a month?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-397954220 -
Might take a while to get there... if I left now I might make it by the electionDavid_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?
0 -
Am I right that Iftar (the breaking of the fast) is at about 21:30 in the UK next week? If so that doesn't leave a lot of time to vote afterward so maybe those fasting will vote early in the morning instead. Hard to think that Ramadan might not have something of an effect on turnout though.foxinsoxuk said:
I think also that in Dewsbury there is a significant Muslim Labour vote, that may well be depressed by Ramadan, when people have a prolonged fast, and give up worldly things.MyBurningEars said:
Labour majority 1,451, Kippers in play 6,649peter_from_putney said:
Probably chasing after neighbouring, highly marginal Dewsbury.Typo said:May looks to be in Huddersfield. Make of that what you will.
The Tories have absolutely no chance of displacing long-serving Barry Sheerman in rock solid Labour safe Huddersfield itself.
BTW Earlier in the campaign, I backed Labour to hold Dewsbury, from where I am typing this, at odds of 4/1 which have now narrowed to 2/1. It smacks of being a lost cause for the Tories, where for such a winnable seat they selected a 22 year old inexperienced supermarket assistant ..... I mean no disrespect, but this is a seat they should have gobbled up with ease
So clearly winnable and on paper an odd choice of candidate! But "supermarket assistant" is underplaying her a wee bit, no? Ex caseworker for Matthew Hancock and a candidate in a no-hope seat in 2015,, church minister, currently working for a debt-counselling charity, doesn't seem to have worked at a supermarket for 3 years...
Ramadan may influence a number of seats, but most would be safe Labour and of course there is postal voting. Dewsbury is one of the few marginals.0 -
They at least have a purpose in life.Scott_P said:
The Nats have taken the day off to march instead...David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
Same here I wonder what % are on here ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Because I'm not a member of ANY political party?David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
LOL, more pants wettingScott_P said:0 -
We cannot have trade agreements with third party countries if we stay in the EU. Nor do we lose co-operation in science and innovation by leaving the EU.FF43 said:
The Government have produced a Clear Plan for Brexit, which isn't actually a plan but rather a wishlist. Two of the wishes (End ECJ jurisdiction and control over EU immigration) can only be achieved through leaving the EU; the remainder are better served by remaining in the EU: strengthen the UK Union; keep the Irish Common Travel Area; worker protection, secure cross-border rights for UK and EU citizens; free trade with European markets; trade agreements with third-party countries; European co-operation for science and innovation; European co-operation on security.HYUFD said:The Brexit vote was for reclaimed sovereignty and controlled immigration, the Remain vote to keep as close economic ties to the EU as now with a tiny Federalist vote, the UK voted Leave and so sovereignty and controlled immigration come first and if May wins on that platform that is how Brexit will be for the next 5 years. The government's other economic policies to make Britain more prosperous than Labour are not linked to Brexit beyond a corporation tax cut
It doesn't say how those somewhat incompatible objectives will be resolved. A reasonable interpretation is that they will try to get as much as possible of the first two objectives wihile conceding no more than is necessary on the remaining eight. But it is all up for negotiations.0 -
MoronAlsoIndigo said:.
Child poverty ? Seriously ? A statistical approximation to zero in the UK.calum said:Simple SNP messaging for the last week
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/8705469387935375360 -
follow this guy:Pulpstar said:
Hence why it would be hilariousnunu said:
That seat has seen second biggest rise in voter registrations.Pulpstar said:Most amusing result of the night would be if the Tories beat Labour in leeds NW. Now that WOULD be proof that the younglings cba to get to the polling booth.
I'm guessing the biggest is........... Sheffield Central ?
Also the youngest seat in the country (I think)
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/8709192558979072000 -
Next question: are you going to raise NICs?MaxPB said:I think Theresa May is trying to lose an unlosable election.
I think everyone in the country knows the Tories aren't going to raise income tax, any budget which tried to do so would not make it through Parliamentary scrutiny. So just come out and say it, no income tax rises for the next five years.0 -
So when are we expecting these polls?0
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I do not like to hide my talentsCarlottaVance said:0 -
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Just deranged and have no life.David_Evershed said:
You don't have to be a member to deliver leaflets.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Because I'm not a member of ANY political party?David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
June 8th, 10 pm.Gallowgate said:So when are we expecting these polls?
Might underestimate the Tories a touch.0 -
Six polls tonight? Including an ICM.0
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Higher than that ..... I sold them on the spreads at 402, so their mid point must have reached at least 405. So a fall of over 40 seats so far and how much further to go?surbiton said:
They started at 390, right ?peter_from_putney said:The Tories are a further 2 seats lower on the spreads this morning at 360 - 366 seats. Day after day, they keep on sliding lower and lower. Nothing and nobody seems able to halt their decline which is all most depressing for members of the Blue Team.
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They're over sampling the politically engaged!!!Pulpstar said:0 -
Are they locked in the house then, thought it was not eating.Sandpit said:
Am I right that Iftar (the breaking of the fast) is at about 21:30 in the UK next week? If so that doesn't leave a lot of time to vote afterward so maybe those fasting will vote early in the morning instead. Hard to think that Ramadan might not have something of an effect on turnout though.foxinsoxuk said:
I think also that in Dewsbury there is a significant Muslim Labour vote, that may well be depressed by Ramadan, when people have a prolonged fast, and give up worldly things.MyBurningEars said:
Labour majority 1,451, Kippers in play 6,649peter_from_putney said:
Probably chasing after neighbouring, highly marginal Dewsbury.Typo said:May looks to be in Huddersfield. Make of that what you will.
The Tories have absolutely no chance of displacing long-serving Barry Sheerman in rock solid Labour safe Huddersfield itself.
BTW Earlier in the campaign, I backed Labour to hold Dewsbury, from where I am typing this, at odds of 4/1 which have now narrowed to 2/1. It smacks of being a lost cause for the Tories, where for such a winnable seat they selected a 22 year old inexperienced supermarket assistant ..... I mean no disrespect, but this is a seat they should have gobbled up with ease
So clearly winnable and on paper an odd choice of candidate! But "supermarket assistant" is underplaying her a wee bit, no? Ex caseworker for Matthew Hancock and a candidate in a no-hope seat in 2015,, church minister, currently working for a debt-counselling charity, doesn't seem to have worked at a supermarket for 3 years...
Ramadan may influence a number of seats, but most would be safe Labour and of course there is postal voting. Dewsbury is one of the few marginals.0 -
hmmm let me try.Pulpstar said:0 -
Disappointing rating for BBC1 QT Leaders Special - 3.8m - only 0.3m higher than the BBC Debate on Wed.
Though it did peak at 4.2m in the final 15 mins when Corbyn asked about Trident.
18:00: BBC News at Six - 4.18m (31.3%)
18:30: BBC Regional News - 4.33m (29.6%)
19:00: The One Show - 2.73m (16.6%)
20:00: EastEnders - 4.32m (21.4%)
20:30: Question Time: Leaders Special - 3.80m (18.2%)
* 15 minute peak - 4.20m (20.0%) from 21:45
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 3.99m (22.4%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.84m (19.4%)
19:00: Emmerdale - 5.36m (34.0%)
19:30: Britain's Got Talent - 7.04m (36.7%)
* peak - 8.25m (38.7%) at 20:50
21:00: Coronation Street - 7.66m (35.0%)
21:30: Britain's Got Talent Results - 5.78m (27.6%)
* peak - 6.75m (31.8%) at 21:55
22:00: ITV News at Ten - 2.29m (13.3%)0 -
Good few saddo's for certain.Yorkcity said:
Same here I wonder what % are on here ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Because I'm not a member of ANY political party?David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?0 -
I think I am slightly more qualified to talk on this subject than you are, but flame away if it makes you happy.malcolmg said:
MoronAlsoIndigo said:.
Child poverty ? Seriously ? A statistical approximation to zero in the UK.calum said:Simple SNP messaging for the last week
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/8705469387935375360 -
I thought he lost during Woman's Hour. :-)rottenborough said:
Corbyn finally lost GE 2017 at around 9pm last night.SouthamObserver said:
The Trident and nukes equivocations from Corbyn crystallise the concerns voters have about him and security policy generally that his past create. Put simply, people worry he will not protect them and their families to the extent May will. And that is what will ensure Labour loses. In Brexit Britainyou may be able to win from the left, but you cannot equivocate or be regarded as weak on security and defence issues.Scott_P said:
As noted on QT last night, Trident is a multi-Parliament commitment.Jonathan said:Wondering if anyone really thinks that 'pushing the button ' is actually going to come into play in the next five years and should be the deciding factor in this election.
The question is less whether Corbyn would push the button in the next 5 years (we know he wouldn't) but whether he will decommission it in the next 5 years so the next PM couldn't
I have difficulty in believing the election will be decided on this issue. Maybe elections could have been in the 1980s, but it's a very different world now. The security issue people are most concerned about is suicide bombers, and you can't deter them with a strategic nuclear missile.
Having said that, the polls have always been pointing towards a Tory majority. There can be a hung parliament if the polls, or the projections based on the polls, are wrong. It could be the case. But the weight of probability still has to favour a Tory win, as it has all along.0 -
Anecdote alert:
My parents live in Michael Fallon's constituency. My father was worried/angered by the dementia tax stuff to the extent that he emailed Fallon's office to get him to clarify the issue. Got back the usual 'strong and stable' bollocks and is really not happy. He's not politically minded or been proactive in contacting an MP before, but the dementia tax had real cut-through. He will vote Tory as usual but it makes me question if this is going to surpress Tory turnout - fine in a safe Con seat like this one but elsewhere?
Also, has Fallon been rattled by the feedback - its volume and its tone - from this policy and the subsequent u-turn? It's such a safe Tory seat, never get anything from him during elections but this time there's been leaflets through the door on two separate occasions and some big ads in the Sevenoaks Chronicle. Perhaps it's to compensate for being away campaigning elsewhere as he's a Cabinet member, but there is definitely discontent in Tory England.
This contrasts with 2015, when I overheard on a number of occasions how awful Sturgeon was and how a Labout-SNP coaltition did not bear thinking about. The Tory vote then felt motivated for polling day.0 -
Yes but isn't that the point? The Conservatives dropped the tax lock because they intend to raise taxes. It's just a few weeks since they tried to raise NICs. The rest is just discussing the best way to obfuscate this.Charles said:
Next question: are you going to raise NICs?MaxPB said:I think Theresa May is trying to lose an unlosable election.
I think everyone in the country knows the Tories aren't going to raise income tax, any budget which tried to do so would not make it through Parliamentary scrutiny. So just come out and say it, no income tax rises for the next five years.
It becomes counter-productive as voters become cynical and look for the small print in even the true stuff -- for instance, the VAT pledge only covers the level and not the range of goods taxed.0 -
Yes. She was very "Meh....." about the first three episodes.malcolmg said:
Is new series out thenMarqueeMark said:
I've lost my other half to a House of Cards marathon.....David_Evershed said:Is everyone out delivering leaflets and canvassing?
If not, why not?
The fourth episode is apparently the finest writing since Shakespeare.
I'm so glad I live in a hyperbole-free household......0 -
Explain then , how there are no poor people in UK. Hopefully your are not going to trot out that people in Africa are really poor, try to contain yourself to the UK.AlsoIndigo said:
I think I am slightly more qualified to talk on this subject than you are, but flame away if it makes you happy.malcolmg said:
MoronAlsoIndigo said:.
Child poverty ? Seriously ? A statistical approximation to zero in the UK.calum said:Simple SNP messaging for the last week
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/8705469387935375360 -
HuffPo:
"Jeremy Corbyn Could See Late Surge In Support From Ex-UKIP Voters"0 -
Not after yesterday.rottenborough said:HuffPo:
"Jeremy Corbyn Could See Late Surge In Support From Ex-UKIP Voters"0 -
Loads of statistics from this guy today:
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/8707558441656934410
