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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI ends a morning of bad news for the Tories with the

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    Kerrang endorses Labour

    http://www.kerrang.com/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Have people seen Kerrang? Made me chuckle.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    The i??
    Is that still an actual paper? I guess they'll be Farron's lonely support in his quest to reverse Brexit.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Mortimer said:

    That'd be a yes you're defending millionaires, then?
    Only in your little world.

    Higher Income taxes Lower IHT threshold may suggest otherwise to the Many mind.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,661
    Scott_P said:
    'The risk is just too big to take'

    So why call an unnecessary election Tezzie's?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Who is going first on QT?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352

    Only in your little world.

    Higher Income taxes Lower IHT threshold may suggest otherwise to the Many mind.
    I thought millionaires avoid IHT anyway?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099
    edited June 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Have they still not clocked yet that a new runway north of the existing field will mean a lot fewer planes over Twickenham?
    Why would they want to transfer the misery of noisy overhead flights to someone else? They are LibDems, not Tories. ;)
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    No doubt already posted down thread - Labour should use it to gear up their best ever GOTV operation !

    https://twitter.com/stephenpaton134/status/870656393698791424
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    Sandpit said:

    That's genuinely a surprise, I'd thought they'd sit on the fence or recommend an anti-Tory vote as opposed to endorsing Corbyn.

    So the red team has the Grauniad and the Mirror, with every other paper coming out for the Tories this weekend?
    Given the Editor, Evening Standard going Lib Dem I guess?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352
    calum said:

    No doubt already posted down thread - Labour should use it to gear up their best ever GOTV operation !

    twitter.com/stephenpaton134/status/870656393698791424

    Isn't that always the case though?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Margaret Court comes out for Farron ;)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,819

    'The risk is just too big to take'

    So why call an unnecessary election Tezzie's?
    She seems to procrastinate for months before half-heartedly taking the most reckless of the available options and then hiding while the consequences play out.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    At what point do you head down to Hawick to shore up the Mundell bets xD
    Hawick is in BRS!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    'The risk is just too big to take'

    So why call an unnecessary election Tezzie's?
    I think she is asking herself the same question.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099

    'The risk is just too big to take'

    So why call an unnecessary election Tezzie's?
    Exactly what I thought when I got the same leaflet.

    The Tories call an election voluntarily three years too early, and their key slogan is that the other side presents a dangerous risk. What strategic mastermind is thinking up this stuff?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Re the article saying 78% turnout across the board equals HP. I'd be stunned if 78% of 16-30s were registered.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    RobD said:

    I thought millionaires avoid IHT anyway?
    That was before Jezza though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352

    That was before Jezza though.
    LOL. Is he going to go round personally to collect it?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,819

    Margaret Court comes out for Farron ;)

    The Lib Dems are having too many dimbo eruptions.

    Plastics chemicals 'affecting people's sexuality' claims Telford Lib Dem election candidate Susan King

    https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/general-election-2017/2017/06/01/plastics-chemicals-affecting-peoples-sexuality-claims-telford-lib-dem-election-candidate-susan-king/
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Didnt 2015 QT help turn it Daves way?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Guardian endorses Jezza,..... russen fussen mincing do Gooders!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352

    Didnt 2015 QT help turn it Daves way?

    Polls were unmoved, IIRC.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited June 2017

    Didnt 2015 QT help turn it Daves way?

    The Tory private polling (which was accurate) showed no real change throughout the campaign. None of the much publicized gaffes such as the Ed Stone changed much at all.

    The Daily YouGov's scared them and that caused Cameron to go balls to the wall for the last 2 weeks.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,819

    I think she is asking herself the same question.
    She may only have a short innings in number 10, but she's reached the level of paranoid delusion usually reserved only for PMs who last a decade in power.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Bloke on Look North says TM only answers questions 11% of time.

    JC up in 40%s
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    We need some good old fashioned piling resources into reports to gird the loins
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Interestingly Andrew Neil interviews were 13% for each though appparently
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Bloke on Look North says TM only answers questions 11% of time.

    JC up in 40%s

    Four times the lies for your money!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469

    That was before Jezza though.
    Won't be any millionaires left with Jezza in power...they will have all left or due to maximum wage won't be able to earn enough.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    Alistair said:

    Hawick is in BRS!
    Well I'm on the Stories there too :p
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017

    The amazing thing is that people who participated in an anti establishment kicking last June, then cheered another one on in November now seem surprised that the anti establishment mood is turning on the most pro-establishment party of all.
    As some early social movement theorists put it;

    "there is always enough discontent in any society to supply the grass-roots support for a movement if the movement is effectively organized and has at its disposal the power and resources of some established elite group" Turner & Tillan 1972 (p. 251)
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    The Tory private polling (which was accurate) showed no real change throughout the campaign. None of the much publicized gaffes such as the Ed Stone changed much at all.

    The Daily YouGov's scared them and that caused Cameron to go balls to the wall for the last 2 weeks.
    Interestingly though, they didn't unleash the Living Wage - even though they must surely have done the groundwork for it.

    Anybody know the story of why they didn't show the goodies before the election?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    RobD said:

    Polls were unmoved, IIRC.
    Really I remember ED BEING SHOUTED AT for refusing to apologise for Lab overspending and that theres no money left note
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    All it takes is for the tories to win the borders/north of scotland and labour to win back the edinburgh/glasgow and its areas and the SNP goose is cooked.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352

    Really I remember ED BEING SHOUTED AT for refusing to apologise for Lab overspending and that theres no money left note
    He was shouted at?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited June 2017

    Really I remember ED BEING SHOUTED AT for refusing to apologise for Lab overspending and that theres no money left note
    And it made zero difference. Same with Gordo being rubbish in the debates and Bigot-gate.

    In the two previous GE with debates etc, the only real change from start to end of campaign was "I agree with Nick" Cleggasm, and even that didn't end up anywhere near as large as the polls suggested.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    calum said:

    No doubt already posted down thread - Labour should use it to gear up their best ever GOTV operation !

    https://twitter.com/stephenpaton134/status/870656393698791424

    Baxtering that, even with a fairly generous Scotland result and some tacticals still leaves Con as largest party.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=43&LIB=9&UKIP=3&Green=1&NewLAB=&TVCON=10&TVLAB=25&TVLIB=50&TVUKIP=0&TVGreen=0&SCOTCON=24&SCOTLAB=30&SCOTLIB=7&SCOTUKIP=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTNAT=38&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2015

    Following RCs on Hammond next PM, but also backed Rudd. She seems to be the only Tory with some fight in her.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    And it made zero difference. Same with Gordo being rubbish in the debates and Bigot-gate.

    In the two previous GE with debates etc, the only change was "I agree with Nick" Cleggasm, and even that didn't end up anywhere near as large as the polls suggested.
    You could theorise that the corbocharge is from the same ilk as the Cleggasm and will have the same result. If you were so minded.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Evening all.

    In response to @RochdalePioneers' excellent post earlier:-

    I can understand why the young might go over to Corbyn because he seems different and offers change (even if I think they have not really bothered to understand him or his policies).

    The trouble is the sort of Marxist policies he offers will hurt the young more than anyone else and the young are deluded if they think all the lovely free things they (and everyone else) have been offered will be paid for by Philip Green and his friends or those on £80K or more.

    If Corbyn wins, they will learn this lesson the hard way, as the rest of us had to in the 1970's, the sort of economy and society which Corbyn wants to bring us back to.

    Corbynism may well be like Trump and Brexit. But all of them are deluded versions of nostalgia not realistic attempts to engage with the world as it is now or as it is likely to be.

    Incidentally, a Jewish friend of mine expressed some concern about how things might turn out in a Corbyn Britain. This was after the abuse doled out to Emma Barnett some of which seemed to focus on her being Jewish.

    That someone should even feel like this in 21st century Britain I find deeply depressing.

    (As I do the prospect of Diane Abbott as Home Secretary......)

    I have never thought much of May. But the Lib Dems have really disappointed me - nationally anyway. Locally they have been very active.
  • The Tory private polling (which was accurate) showed no real change throughout the campaign. None of the much publicized gaffes such as the Ed Stone changed much at all.

    The Daily YouGov's scared them and that caused Cameron to go balls to the wall for the last 2 weeks.
    This may seem - and probably is - a profoundly naive question for PB experts from a relative novice on this site, but why is the private polling by parties deemed to be more accurate that the published polls? Are different methods used?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited June 2017

    You could theorise that the corbocharge is from the same ilk as the Cleggasm and will have the same result. If you were so minded.
    Well I did ask earlier the following question....

    Did the Cleggasm continue in the polls all the way to the GE, or did we see signs of it tailing off in the final week or two of the campaign?

    I don't know the answer (I could look it up, but I was hoping our panel of experts would chime in). I do remember the Daily Mail went into overdrive with its negative stories about him following the first debate, no idea if that really had any impact.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Interestingly though, they didn't unleash the Living Wage - even though they must surely have done the groundwork for it.

    Anybody know the story of why they didn't show the goodies before the election?
    The common sense answer is that they don't want to make any expensive promises while Brexit plays out and we still have a deficit, hence the rather dry manifesto - bar a valiant effort to address the social care "crisis" which spectacularly backfired of course.

    But who wants to vote for that when free owls are on offer from the other side?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/870692604945367046

    Also Indo-Irish - Indian born father, Irish born mother.
    Fine Gael are the Irish Tories, right?

    Talent trumps quotas, as always.
  • Sir_GeoffSir_Geoff Posts: 41

    Never mind May - he had Priti with him yesterday!
    Interesting to see him using the YouGov poll yesterday to help get out the vote.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,513

    This may seem - and probably is - a profoundly naive question for PB experts from a relative novice on this site, but why is the private polling by parties deemed to be more accurate that the published polls? Are different methods used?
    I'd like to know that as well.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    Evening all. I see some are still thinking May will scrape through a majority.

    I'm struggling to understand. True May has been dreadful and the manifesto was badly received. The polling movement can't all be due to this though. The social care policy was badly communicated but as I think I said before I actually support the principle housing assets are going to have to be used in this way in the future if we want fairness within the generations. I also don't understand Corbyn's appeal. He is still the same disagreeable character whose MPs didn't want.. His manifesto has lots of goodies but surely people realise that they have to be paid for some way down the line. And hasn't nationalisation and it's like had its day? Why would people vote for this now when they declined it when it was offered the first time round? Then again I didn't understand the appeal of Brexit.

    I will be voting Conservative but sadly I expect to see a Labour government this time next week.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited June 2017
    MaxPB said:

    Fine Gael are the Irish Tories, right?

    Talent trumps quotas, as always.
    AIUI both FG and FF are centre-right, with FG being marginally more so. They are the descendants of the two sides in the Irish Civil War: Fianna Fail from the (losing) anti-Treaty side and Fine Gael from the pro-Treaty side.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Well I did ask earlier the following question....

    Did the Cleggasm continue in the polls all the way to the GE, or did we see signs of it tailing off in the final week or two of the campaign?

    I don't know the answer (I could look it up, but I was hoping our panel of experts would chime in). I do remember the Daily Mail went into overdrive with its negative stories about him following the first debate, no idea if that really had any impact.
    It tailed off a little from the initial surge but the events of poll polls all had high 20s. They got 23. They had been as high as 34 in one poll and we're getting the odd 30 all the way through from there. Nothing under 24.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099
    NEW THREAD

    I don't want an owl
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,352

    It tailed off a little from the initial surge but the events of poll polls all had high 20s. They got 23. They had been as high as 34 in one poll and we're getting the odd 30 all the way through from there. Nothing under 24.
    Yeah, there was one poll where the LDs were in the lead.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,469
    edited June 2017

    This may seem - and probably is - a profoundly naive question for PB experts from a relative novice on this site, but why is the private polling by parties deemed to be more accurate that the published polls? Are different methods used?
    In the past it hasn't. But 2015 Messina and his team claim to have had much more accurate polling. Labour on the other hand, had some signs, but not until the very end (and they didn't tell Ed).

    Messina is supposed to have huge databases where he has 100s of parameters on masses of target swings voters. Literally how often you go for a shit type stuff. YouGov have similar stuff, but it has been shown to be horrendously flawed (Dave Gorman did a special on it and it was hilarious the kind of crap they had, Marxists love Ant, Fascists love Dec, but nobody can tell which is which).

    Messina isn't looking at the population as a whole, he is looking at only target voters that could swing the election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    I'd like to know that as well.
    Isn't it that the party private polling is done on an order of magnitude bigger scale (and in cost) than the regular polling done for the media organisations?

    Or maybe it's just frustration that we don't get to see it!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,298
    At least if Corbo is PM it will confirm Britain as a place full of eccentrics!

    I can barely remember the 70s, so will be nice to revisit my tender years
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    May up first tonight - BBC News
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,516
    edited June 2017

    Corbyn should really have said on the side of the few not the many really.

    It would have been a rare and welcome moment of honesty from him. And was therefore not likely to happen.

    Meanwhile In the real world a party Manifesto on the side of the many and against the excesses of Capitalism is gaining support.

    Get over it

    In the real world, the Labour manifesto is none of those things. It accepts benefit cuts - ironic given opposition to them was what won Corbyn the leadership - has no realistic tax proposals, and consists mostly of middle class bribes on free universities and bungs to the elderly while promising somebody else will pay for any more spending, plus massive fiscal transfers from poor to rich via higher borrowing.

    The only Marx that Corbyn ever resembled is a sort of less funny, less intelligent Groucho. However, for whatever cold comfort you can find in this, Rufus T Firefly became President and won his wholly unnecessary war after bankrupting the country.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018

    I'd like to know that as well.
    The daily canvassing returns and info from their candidates on the ground should provide the real picture
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Tory majority 100 plus has to be the best bet out there now.

    Labour candidates havent seen swing. Pollsters are all tories :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,099
    Nuovo thread
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,658

    NEW THREAD

  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    'The risk is just too big to take'

    So why call an unnecessary election Tezzie's?
    To move the next election comfortably away from the A50 negotiations deadline of course, duh.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Sandpit said:

    The common sense answer is that they don't want to make any expensive promises while Brexit plays out and we still have a deficit, hence the rather dry manifesto - bar a valiant effort to address the social care "crisis" which spectacularly backfired of course.

    But who wants to vote for that when free owls are on offer from the other side?
    I'm talking about 2015 - Osborne surely knew he was going to announce the Living Wage if they won the election, or at least would have done some of the preparatory work for it. Yet even though polls were at some times not looking good for the Tories, they kept the goodies hidden in the bag. Did they not think the Living Wage was an attractive policy? Did they not believe how bad the polls looked? Or was the Living Wage actually only decided on after they won?
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    MaxPB said:

    Fine Gael are the Irish Tories, right?

    Talent trumps quotas, as always.
    Not really. More like the Orange book liberals, with FF being more populist.
    Although in Europe Fine Gael do sit with the centre right Christian Democrat parties
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469

    Baxtering that, even with a fairly generous Scotland result and some tacticals still leaves Con as largest party.

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&tvcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=43&LIB=9&UKIP=3&Green=1&NewLAB=&TVCON=10&TVLAB=25&TVLIB=50&TVUKIP=0&TVGreen=0&SCOTCON=24&SCOTLAB=30&SCOTLIB=7&SCOTUKIP=0&SCOTGreen=0&SCOTNAT=38&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2015

    Following RCs on Hammond next PM, but also backed Rudd. She seems to be the only Tory with some fight in her.
    Rudd has too many skeletons in her cupboard, even now the bones are rattling.
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Just bought Conservative seats at 368, think this could be peak Corbyn.
This discussion has been closed.