Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
ICM and Comres have 10%+ Tory leads it is Yougov and Mori which are rolling the dice on a Corbyn surge
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Your second point is very sound.
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.
I don't think project fear will be effective. They need to offer something positive, which has been entirely missing from their prospectus thus far.
The Tories missed such an easy hit there...£250-300 million extra for the NHS by (insert met by 5 or so years down the line) i.e. it is extra money, but given inflation etc it isn't totally bonkers and unaffordable.
Brexit Bus issue nullified plus extra cash for the black hole that people want more money for.
I actually think the Lib Dem policy on this was the most sensible.
It was suggested by many PBers many times over many months.
Its not even a lot of money compared with that pissed away on the vanity projects of Cameron and Osborne.
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...
It's on the walk to the polling booth that the British electorate, at a GE, has usually sobered up, and voted sensibly one way or another. They stopped doing that at the EU Ref, thinking instead "fuck it". On the way to the polling booth next week, if they do say "fuck it", what is in store - not freedom or reclaiming power or a perceived riskless choice - but another politician. OK, one on the left promising all kinds of goodies, but a British politician nevertheless and the UK electorate is used to those and might see through Jeremy as a result on the day.
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Your second point is very sound.
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.
I don't think project fear will be effective. They need to offer something positive, which has been entirely missing from their prospectus thus far.
The Tories missed such an easy hit there...£250-300 million extra for the NHS by (insert met by 5 or so years down the line) i.e. it is extra money, but given inflation etc it isn't totally bonkers and unaffordable.
Brexit Bus issue nullified plus extra cash for the black hole that people want more money for.
I actually think the Lib Dem policy on this was the most sensible.
It was suggested by many PBers many times over many months.
Its not even a lot of money compared with that pissed away on the vanity projects of Cameron and Osborne.
I also suggested ages ago that Corbyn was going to propose scrapping tuition fees, and he drops loads of hints. The Tories seem to be caught completely off guard by it.
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
ICM and Comres have 10%+ Tory leads it is Yougov and Mori which are rolling the dice on a Corbyn surge
Even a Tory win of 10%, I would say it is pretty big f##k up by Team May. I didn't think 25% was realistic, but what they are up against regardless of what happens they have managed to allow Corbynism to become legitimized. Even most of the PLP don't think it should be.
Blair not only won he redefined the centre ground for 15+ years (and even now on many issues you can't go right of lots of stuff and hope to win). May had the opportunity to do the same and ensure that nobody could go left of it.
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Your second point is very sound.
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.
I don't think project fear will be effective. They need to offer something positive, which has been entirely missing from their prospectus thus far.
It's certainly been interesting to see the same people's different attitudes to Project Fear in 2014, 2016 and now.
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Your second point is very sound.
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.
I don't think project fear will be effective. They need to offer something positive, which has been entirely missing from their prospectus thus far.
The Tories missed such an easy hit there...£250-300 million extra for the NHS by (insert met by 5 or so years down the line) i.e. it is extra money, but given inflation etc it isn't totally bonkers and unaffordable.
Brexit Bus issue nullified plus extra cash for the black hole that people want more money for.
I actually think the Lib Dem policy on this was the most sensible.
It was suggested by many PBers many times over many months.
Its not even a lot of money compared with that pissed away on the vanity projects of Cameron and Osborne.
I also suggested ages ago that Corbyn was going to propose scrapping tuition fees, and he drops loads of hints. The Tories seem to be caught completely off guard by it.
Some of us said back in 2010 that it would leave the Conservatives and LibDems permanently vulnerable among young voters.
£30k is such a huge amount that it was inevitable someone use it as a vote winner.
If the polls are wrong then sites such as this have got to stop paying attention to them. It doesn't help that despite pollsters getting it wrong recently, we see have headers and discussion threads centred on xyz poll says this, and treating those polls as having a significant basis in reality.
You are right, but that isn't what will happen unfortunately. We will just get threads on what the pollsters said in their post fuck up inquiry, with the ones that ones that were sitting on the chair when the music stopped championed as soothsayers
It's fair to say that there's going to be a plane crash sized enquiry among the polling industry starting this time next week.
Talking of plane crashes, sell IAG shares, BA have learned nothing from their metaphorical plane crash last weekend, and all the senior management are out to cover their own arses. Shareholder revolt coming.
Independent Directors at BA are already calling for an independent review but reports say a contractor switched off the mains power by mistake
Yep, that's about the fourth different story so far and it's clearly as much bollocks as all the previous ones. It would be impossible for any one switch to shut down a data centre - we call that a single point of failure in IT - and if for some magic reason it did then the backup data centre should have taken over.
That this didn't happen is management failure on an epic scale, I really wouldn't want to be Mr Cruz or Mr Walsh right now. The former hired the latter to oversee cost cutting and outsourcing of most IT functions.
I think the board is starting to flex its muscles probably followed by the shareholders
Definitely. The immediate cost (compensation to passengers, fuel and overtime flying empty planes around etc) is now estimated at £150m, plus the share price drop and a serious amount of goodwill when it's so clear that the management are talking sh!t about what happened.
@Beverley_C has also made some good comments about this, but basically if you've well designed and run data centres (note the plural) it's pretty much impossible for services to be so far downgraded for so long. Good high availability and disaster recovery planning and execution is hard. One thing for sure is that no contractor (even the cleaner) goes near the building without a thorough briefing and a company chaperone.
Statement to be issued by the polling companies on June 10th . In 2015 in order to correct for errors in our GE polling , All polling companies made adjustments to their methodology . It appears that the 2015 GE was a one off and without those adjustments we would not have overstated the Conservative vote share in 2017 and would have correctly forecast the Labour victory on Thursday . Rest assured we strive to make our polling as accurate as possible and will be returning to our pre 2015 methodology .
Statement to be issued by the polling companies on June 10th . In 2015 in order to correct for errors in our GE polling , All polling companies made adjustments to their methodology . It appears that the 2015 GE was a one off and without those adjustments we would not have overstated the Conservative vote share in 2017 and would have correctly forecast the Labour victory on Thursday . Rest assured we strive to make our polling as accurate as possible and will be returning to our pre 2015 methodology .
Statement to be issued by the polling companies on June 10th . In 2015 in order to correct for errors in our GE polling , All polling companies made adjustments to their methodology . It appears that the 2015 GE was a one off and without those adjustments we would not have overstated the Conservative vote share in 2017 and would have correctly forecast the Labour victory on Thursday . Rest assured we strive to make our polling as accurate as possible and will be returning to our pre 2015 methodology .
Or perhaps they'll admit that they've just been asking Dianne Abbott how she was going to vote 2,000 times, and that she's finally getting the hang of volunteering Corbyns's name. I can't explain the polls otherwise.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in Scotland
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.
I think NickPalmer deserves recognition for standing by Jezza throughout, and being mercilessly mocked for it..
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...
It's on the walk to the polling booth that the British electorate, at a GE, has usually sobered up, and voted sensibly one way or another. They stopped doing that at the EU Ref, thinking instead "fuck it". On the way to the polling booth next week, if they do say "fuck it", what is in store - not freedom or reclaiming power or a perceived riskless choice - but another politician. OK, one on the left promising all kinds of goodies, but a British politician nevertheless and the UK electorate is used to those and might see through Jeremy as a result on the day.
Or then again they might just say "fuck it".
Good Post Many may well think they have nothing to lose.
Tories only offering more of the same. Austerity drop in living standards and now they are coming for your house too.
Some will like the Status Quo as they perceive it in some way "safer".
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.
Depends what we mean by better - seats or voteshare. Though if he does better than Miliband in either, I agree that no one on this site foresaw it! I don't think this is a blog of experts - just people interested in politics really!
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.
Jeremy Corbyn is not going to be Minister, Prime or otherwise
Should the fantasy of PM Jezza occur
Is your ARSE starting to go weak and wobbly like Theresa May's?
My ARSE remains firm and pert .... and well tanned on the French Riviera ....
Phew that's a relief... For a minute there I thought you'd gone weak and wobbly. Would've been all down the John O (and Ave It) to keep PB Tories from having a complete and total breakdown...
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.
I think NickPalmer deserves recognition for standing by Jezza throughout, and being mercilessly mocked for it..
For standing by a terrorist sympathizer who is happy to associate with marxists, antisemites and holocaust deniers. Forgive me if I don't...
The people who I feel sorry for are the likes of SO. A sensible left of centre chap who has seen his party taken over by the Maomentum rabble and now with the way the GE campaign has gone they won't be able to get rid of him regardless of the final result.
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.
Depends what we mean by better - seats or voteshare. Though if he does better than Miliband in either, I agree that no one on this site foresaw it! I don't think this is a blog of experts - just people interested in politics really!
If any of us were significantly good at foreseeing the future we wouldn't be here.
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
ICM and Comres have 10%+ Tory leads it is Yougov and Mori which are rolling the dice on a Corbyn surge
ICM and Comres are now a week out of date . They may well not have 10% leads now .
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
Richmond Park will be technically also a gain rather than a hold - with reference to the result at the last GE in 2015.
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
ICM and Comres have 10%+ Tory leads it is Yougov and Mori which are rolling the dice on a Corbyn surge
ICM and Comres are now a week out of date . They may well not have 10% leads now .
But they were taken at the same time as the YouGov poll showing a very tight lead.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in Scotland
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?
It's been clear for 15 years that Scotland has been moving politically in a different direction to the rest of the UK. it's only a matter of time before the pressure becomes large enough to cause a clean break (probably after Brexit).
I've been out delivering this afternoon - so is Amber Rudd the Chancellor now?
(600 "newspapers" delivered - in an area of Torbay that has a Tory councillor - but not elected so much from the area where I was. Total signs of political excitement: one Labour poster. I'm perhaps being generous there - it may just have been the candidates address was propped up against the hall window when it arrived. 0 Tory (unsurprising) and (much more surprisingly) 0 LibDems.)
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in Scotland
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?
I value the Union, perhaps because my genes include all 4 countries.
It is much more likely to survive with a broader range of MPs, and a Labour government. Corbyn said he would win in Scotland. Maybe he is right. I have punted on a few SNP/SLAB seats on this.
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
ICM and Comres have 10%+ Tory leads it is Yougov and Mori which are rolling the dice on a Corbyn surge
ICM and Comres are now a week out of date . They may well not have 10% leads now .
If they do they'll probably find a way of making them fit
Jeremy Corbyn is not going to be Minister, Prime or otherwise
Should the fantasy of PM Jezza occur
Is your ARSE starting to go weak and wobbly like Theresa May's?
My ARSE remains firm and pert .... and well tanned on the French Riviera ....
Phew that's a relief... For a minute there I thought you'd gone weak and wobbly. Would've been all down the John O (and Ave It) to keep PB Tories from having a complete and total breakdown...
I don't do "weak and wobbly" .... except when Mrs JackW takes off her ....
I'm visiting a friend in London. They have received a letter off Mr. Smithson of political betting. The letter explains that Conservative voters should vote lib dem to stop Labour as the Conservatives are likely to come third. The constituency is bermondsey and Old Southwark.
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
ICM and Comres have 10%+ Tory leads it is Yougov and Mori which are rolling the dice on a Corbyn surge
ICM and Comres are now a week out of date . They may well not have 10% leads now .
But they were taken at the same time as the YouGov poll showing a very tight lead.
Lets see what ComRes and ICM say this weekend I go for 10 and 10 myself anything in single figures and the landslide is cancelled.
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.
Depends what we mean by better - seats or voteshare. Though if he does better than Miliband in either, I agree that no one on this site foresaw it! I don't think this is a blog of experts - just people interested in politics really!
Possibly however many on here are members of political parties with greater knowledge you would imagine than the general public.
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.
I think NickPalmer deserves recognition for standing by Jezza throughout, and being mercilessly mocked for it..
For standing by a terrorist sympathizer who is happy to associate with marxists, antisemites and holocaust deniers. Forgive me if I don't...
The people who I feel sorry for are the likes of SO. A sensible left of centre chap who has seen his party taken over by the Maomentum rabble and now with the way the GE campaign has gone they won't be able to get rid of him regardless of the final result.
Well quite. Although to be fair, Lab could have elected a King Charles Spaniel as leader and Nick would have told us why its views were the very embodiment of all he had really believed these past 20 years.
As for SO (Happy Birthday) and the other sensible Lab types, it must seem to them that they are in a different reality wherein Jezza has no baggage, adores the UK and always has done, and, as your favourite uncle, is about to become PM where no other Lab view exists.
I've been out delivering this afternoon - so is Amber Rudd the Chancellor now?
(600 "newspapers" delivered - in an area of Torbay that has a Tory councillor - but not elected so much from the area where I was. Total signs of political excitement: one Labour poster. I'm perhaps being generous there - it may just have been the candidates address was propped up against the hall window when it arrived. 0 Tory (unsurprising) and (much more surprisingly) 0 LibDems.)
Placards and posters seem to decline every GE....One funny anecdote, when I visited Bath the other week, somebody had a Lib Dem placard loud and proud in their front garden...for the original candidate (who isn't standing) not the replacement.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in Scotland
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?
It's been clear for 15 years that Scotland has been moving politically in a different direction to the rest of the UK. it's only a matter of time before the pressure becomes large enough to cause a clean break (probably after Brexit).
I think this election may well show a reversal of that historic drift.
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...
It's on the walk to the polling booth that the British electorate, at a GE, has usually sobered up, and voted sensibly one way or another. They stopped doing that at the EU Ref, thinking instead "fuck it". On the way to the polling booth next week, if they do say "fuck it", what is in store - not freedom or reclaiming power or a perceived riskless choice - but another politician. OK, one on the left promising all kinds of goodies, but a British politician nevertheless and the UK electorate is used to those and might see through Jeremy as a result on the day.
Or then again they might just say "fuck it".
Good Post Many may well think they have nothing to lose.
Tories only offering more of the same. Austerity drop in living standards and now they are coming for your house too.
Some will like the Status Quo as they perceive it in some way "safer".
Labour Party defending millionaires at the expense of working people again, I see...
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in Scotland
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?
It's been clear for 15 years that Scotland has been moving politically in a different direction to the rest of the UK. it's only a matter of time before the pressure becomes large enough to cause a clean break (probably after Brexit).
I think this election may well show a reversal of that historic drift.
But would that be a change in the tide or a bit of temporary disturbance cause by events ?
After ten years in power the SNP should now be on the down slope and that may be hastened by Sturgeon and Davidson engaging in MAD.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in Scotland
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?
I value the Union, perhaps because my genes include all 4 countries.
It is much more likely to survive with a broader range of MPs, and a Labour government. Corbyn said he would win in Scotland. Maybe he is right. I have punted on a few SNP/SLAB seats on this.
Mr foxinsoxuk, (I think) you've said previously that you disagree with Corbyn's economics. In government, do you think they'd actually get to implement some of this stuff?
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in Scotland
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?
I value the Union, perhaps because my genes include all 4 countries.
It is much more likely to survive with a broader range of MPs, and a Labour government. Corbyn said he would win in Scotland. Maybe he is right. I have punted on a few SNP/SLAB seats on this.
I've lost faith. I think it very likely that the Union is held together by bribery, and if the Scots weren't hosed down with money (which they don't deserve on anything like the scale it is provided: unlike Wales and Northern Ireland, Scotland is not significantly worse off than the UK average) then they'd probably already have voted to leave in 2014.
If consigning the UK to a skip meant a permanent end to Scottish Leftists (SNP or Scottish Labour = same difference) emptying the Treasury, to say nothing of tipping the political balance of the rest of the country rightwards, then it'd be well worth it. Especially given that it would also mean a permanent end to all future Alex Salmonds and Gordon Browns coming South to preach and to meddle.
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)
That makes perfect sense. Heathrow is also a bigger issue in Twickenham than in Richmond Park.
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)
Worth noting also that both of the seat-by-seat pollster models have the LDs doing well in SW London, including in C&W. Given that their entire campaign has been written by SW London people for SW London people, perhaps this isn't so surprising? The disaster that is the West Country is the corresponding downside.
For those gleefully pointing at the closing gap in leader's ratings:
Labour has gained considerably in polls in recent weeks. But do voters really change preferences during a campaign? Will Jennings and Christopher Wlezien explain the importance of using a fundamentals-based approach in predicting UK elections. They find that, despite the turnaround in fortunes in this year’s campaign, the Conservatives may still be looking at a 9-point lead....
..... we look at these estimates 90 days out, 30 days out, and just 7 days out. These reveal that the expected vote share of the Conservatives peaked just after the election was called, but has fallen back since. The model still suggests a substantial 43.3% of the vote on Election Day. More interestingly, Labour has gained considerably in our estimates, rising from a predicted 28.5% of the vote 90 days out to 34.7% a week before the election. Despite this considerable turnaround in fortunes, this fundamentals-based approach suggests around a 9-point lead for the Conservatives – more than sufficient to deliver a comfortable majority for Theresa May.
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)
South Twickenham is the most significant of those.
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Your second point is very sound.
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.
I don't think project fear will be effective. They need to offer something positive, which has been entirely missing from their prospectus thus far.
It's certainly been interesting to see the same people's different attitudes to Project Fear in 2014, 2016 and now.
It was dumb the first time round and it is dumb this time. The point being in both cases it was primarily the same party doing it both times. I suspect they will just about get away with it this time but they really didn't learn any lessons from the referendum.
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)
Worth noting also that both of the seat-by-seat pollster models have the LDs doing well in SW London, including in C&W. Given that their entire campaign has been written by SW London people for SW London people, perhaps this isn't so surprising? The disaster that is the West Country is the corresponding downside.
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...
It's on the walk to the polling booth that the British electorate, at a GE, has usually sobered up, and voted sensibly one way or another. They stopped doing that at the EU Ref, thinking instead "fuck it". On the way to the polling booth next week, if they do say "fuck it", what is in store - not freedom or reclaiming power or a perceived riskless choice - but another politician. OK, one on the left promising all kinds of goodies, but a British politician nevertheless and the UK electorate is used to those and might see through Jeremy as a result on the day.
Or then again they might just say "fuck it".
Good Post Many may well think they have nothing to lose.
Tories only offering more of the same. Austerity drop in living standards and now they are coming for your house too.
Some will like the Status Quo as they perceive it in some way "safer".
Labour Party defending millionaires at the expense of working people again, I see...
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)
Fulwell and Teddington are marginal wards , South Twickenham a safe Conservative ward .
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Point 2 is one that Farron should be making day in, day out....
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.
I think NickPalmer deserves recognition for standing by Jezza throughout, and being mercilessly mocked for it..
For standing by a terrorist sympathizer who is happy to associate with marxists, antisemites and holocaust deniers. Forgive me if I don't...
The people who I feel sorry for are the likes of SO. A sensible left of centre chap who has seen his party taken over by the Maomentum rabble and now with the way the GE campaign has gone they won't be able to get rid of him regardless of the final result.
Sure, he does get abuse for it, but he was nearly alone here in predicting Jezza would do well, though there are others like BJO.
I've been delivering that for a couple of weeks now.
That's been the story from the start. 'Strong and Stable Government vs Coalition of Chaos' I'm surprised you haven't heard that before. Just shows, you can't say it enough.
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)
Worth noting also that both of the seat-by-seat pollster models have the LDs doing well in SW London, including in C&W. Given that their entire campaign has been written by SW London people for SW London people, perhaps this isn't so surprising? The disaster that is the West Country is the corresponding downside.
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...
It's on the walk to the polling booth that the British electorate, at a GE, has usually sobered up, and voted sensibly one way or another. They stopped doing that at the EU Ref, thinking instead "fuck it". On the way to the polling booth next week, if they do say "fuck it", what is in store - not freedom or reclaiming power or a perceived riskless choice - but another politician. OK, one on the left promising all kinds of goodies, but a British politician nevertheless and the UK electorate is used to those and might see through Jeremy as a result on the day.
Or then again they might just say "fuck it".
Good Post Many may well think they have nothing to lose.
Tories only offering more of the same. Austerity drop in living standards and now they are coming for your house too.
Some will like the Status Quo as they perceive it in some way "safer".
Labour Party defending millionaires at the expense of working people again, I see...
Yeh I bet millionaire are flocking to Labour and worse off workers are drifting further away!!
Corbyn should really have said on the side of the few not the many really.
Meanwhile In the real world a party Manifesto on the side of the many and against the excesses of Capitalism is gaining support.
I've been delivering that for a couple of weeks now.
That's been the story from the start. 'Strong and Stable Government vs Coalition of Chaos' I'm surprised you haven't heard that before. Just shows, you can't say it enough.
Keep saying it. It keeps shifting votes to the opposition.
I've been out delivering this afternoon - so is Amber Rudd the Chancellor now?
(600 "newspapers" delivered - in an area of Torbay that has a Tory councillor - but not elected so much from the area where I was. Total signs of political excitement: one Labour poster. I'm perhaps being generous there - it may just have been the candidates address was propped up against the hall window when it arrived. 0 Tory (unsurprising) and (much more surprisingly) 0 LibDems.)
Good that LD activists are going to where they are told.
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...
It's on the walk to the polling booth that the British electorate, at a GE, has usually sobered up, and voted sensibly one way or another. They stopped doing that at the EU Ref, thinking instead "fuck it". On the way to the polling booth next week, if they do say "fuck it", what is in store - not freedom or reclaiming power or a perceived riskless choice - but another politician. OK, one on the left promising all kinds of goodies, but a British politician nevertheless and the UK electorate is used to those and might see through Jeremy as a result on the day.
Or then again they might just say "fuck it".
Good Post Many may well think they have nothing to lose.
Tories only offering more of the same. Austerity drop in living standards and now they are coming for your house too.
Some will like the Status Quo as they perceive it in some way "safer".
Labour Party defending millionaires at the expense of working people again, I see...
Yeh I bet millionaire are flocking to Labour and worse off workers are drifting further away!!
Corbyn should really have said on the side of the few not the many really.
Meanwhile In the real world a party Manifesto on the side of the many and against the excesses of Capitalism is gaining support.
Get over it
That'd be a yes you're defending millionaires, then?
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)
That makes perfect sense. Heathrow is also a bigger issue in Twickenham than in Richmond Park.
Have they still not clocked yet that a new runway north of the existing field will mean a lot fewer planes over Twickenham?
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)
Worth noting also that both of the seat-by-seat pollster models have the LDs doing well in SW London, including in C&W. Given that their entire campaign has been written by SW London people for SW London people, perhaps this isn't so surprising? The disaster that is the West Country is the corresponding downside.
Number of seats that the LibDems could ever hope to win in SW London vs same in the West Country would suggest a different strategy.
Comments
Its not even a lot of money compared with that pissed away on the vanity projects of Cameron and Osborne.
Also 1964 - PM Wilson - Churchill, Attlee, Eden, Macmillan and Home.
Or then again they might just say "fuck it".
I will have a popcorn overdose if that happens.
Steve Fisher @StephenDFisher 5m5 minutes ago
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Update on my Combined Forecast with @RosieShorrocks and @_JohnKenny:
Conservative majority of 71
Blair not only won he redefined the centre ground for 15+ years (and even now on many issues you can't go right of lots of stuff and hope to win). May had the opportunity to do the same and ensure that nobody could go left of it.
35 better than Ed
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3710186/jeremy-corbyn-ally-paul-mason-slammed-after-he-suggests-theresa-may-could-be-avoiding-media-appearances-because-shes-unwell/
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
£30k is such a huge amount that it was inevitable someone use it as a vote winner.
And I suspect that volunteers from the army for that duty will be abundant.
@Beverley_C has also made some good comments about this, but basically if you've well designed and run data centres (note the plural) it's pretty much impossible for services to be so far downgraded for so long. Good high availability and disaster recovery planning and execution is hard. One thing for sure is that no contractor (even the cleaner) goes near the building without a thorough briefing and a company chaperone.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/870688490807107584
In 2015 in order to correct for errors in our GE polling , All polling companies made adjustments to their methodology . It appears that the 2015 GE was a one off and without those adjustments we would not have overstated the Conservative vote share in 2017 and would have correctly forecast the Labour victory on Thursday .
Rest assured we strive to make our polling as accurate as possible and will be returning to our pre 2015 methodology .
Its ok to do quantitative easing for banks but not anyone else.
Many may well think they have nothing to lose.
Tories only offering more of the same. Austerity drop in living standards and now they are coming for your house too.
Some will like the Status Quo as they perceive it in some way "safer".
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/870669243930599424
The people who I feel sorry for are the likes of SO. A sensible left of centre chap who has seen his party taken over by the Maomentum rabble and now with the way the GE campaign has gone they won't be able to get rid of him regardless of the final result.
Twickenham - 70% chance LD
Kingston - 45%
Richmond Park - 25%
Carshalton - 20%
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.
(600 "newspapers" delivered - in an area of Torbay that has a Tory councillor - but not elected so much from the area where I was. Total signs of political excitement: one Labour poster. I'm perhaps being generous there - it may just have been the candidates address was propped up against the hall window when it arrived. 0 Tory (unsurprising) and (much more surprisingly) 0 LibDems.)
It is much more likely to survive with a broader range of MPs, and a Labour government. Corbyn said he would win in Scotland. Maybe he is right. I have punted on a few SNP/SLAB seats on this.
Mr. Smithson, she says she will consider it.
Still 95% certain TMICIPM though
As for SO (Happy Birthday) and the other sensible Lab types, it must seem to them that they are in a different reality wherein Jezza has no baggage, adores the UK and always has done, and, as your favourite uncle, is about to become PM where no other Lab view exists.
After ten years in power the SNP should now be on the down slope and that may be hastened by Sturgeon and Davidson engaging in MAD.
If consigning the UK to a skip meant a permanent end to Scottish Leftists (SNP or Scottish Labour = same difference) emptying the Treasury, to say nothing of tipping the political balance of the rest of the country rightwards, then it'd be well worth it. Especially given that it would also mean a permanent end to all future Alex Salmonds and Gordon Browns coming South to preach and to meddle.
Labour has gained considerably in polls in recent weeks. But do voters really change preferences during a campaign? Will Jennings and Christopher Wlezien explain the importance of using a fundamentals-based approach in predicting UK elections. They find that, despite the turnaround in fortunes in this year’s campaign, the Conservatives may still be looking at a 9-point lead....
..... we look at these estimates 90 days out, 30 days out, and just 7 days out. These reveal that the expected vote share of the Conservatives peaked just after the election was called, but has fallen back since. The model still suggests a substantial 43.3% of the vote on Election Day. More interestingly, Labour has gained considerably in our estimates, rising from a predicted 28.5% of the vote 90 days out to 34.7% a week before the election. Despite this considerable turnaround in fortunes, this fundamentals-based approach suggests around a 9-point lead for the Conservatives – more than sufficient to deliver a comfortable majority for Theresa May.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-polls-the-fundamentals-and-ge2017/
How the Republic of Ireland has changed ....
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Twickenham
The other two should be going yellow even if it is close.
Point 2 is one that Farron should be making day in, day out....
Corbyn should really have said on the side of the few not the many really.
Meanwhile In the real world a party Manifesto on the side of the many and against the excesses of Capitalism is gaining support.
Get over it
I was surprised that Farron didn't have in the LibDem manifesto some increases in sin taxes .... booze and fags .... so to speak ....
So the red team has the Grauniad and the Mirror, with every other paper coming out for the Tories this weekend?
Question is do lib dems have 15 realistic seats to make the 10/11 bet value.
Also Indo-Irish - Indian born father, Irish born mother.
Which considering they need an 8% swing and that its very student heavy is somewhat surprising.
I'll get my (black) coat ....
His Mumbai-born Maharashtrian father had moved to England as a doctor in the 1960s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Varadkar#Personal_life