Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI ends a morning of bad news for the Tories with the

17810121315

Comments

  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    Mr. Stoke, welcome to the site.

    Mr. NorthWales, it's deeply troubling. We could have an IRA sympathiser in Number Ten this time next week.

    How is he on Nasser or Grivas? Or for that matter on the terrorist Begin?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,853

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    Funny how May isn't allowed to change her mind, but Jeremy/Dianne etc are.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    RobD said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    Funny how May isn't allowed to change her mind, but Jeremy/Dianne etc are.
    Do you trust her?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    The reality is none of them can be trusted. They are all not being truthful to the public about what the future will be like.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    Which politicians can be trusted?

    none, none or none?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,853

    RobD said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    Funny how May isn't allowed to change her mind, but Jeremy/Dianne etc are.
    Do you trust her?
    Generally, yes.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749

    I keep thinking the Tory vote will hold and not erode any further.

    Just not sure anymore.

    May: HOLD the line.

    I don't think it is eroding much and surely the prospect of Corbyn's labour in government is likely to keep it firm. But who knows
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    RobD said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    Funny how May isn't allowed to change her mind, but Jeremy/Dianne etc are.

    Indeed. Abbott changed her mind so many times in that radio interview about the Police numbers, that she invented a new branch of mathematics.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Cyan, in 20-30 years, would you vote for an Al-Qaeda sympathiser? Or an ISIS sympathiser?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,329
    edited June 2017

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    LOL, I got three seconds into that video.

    "3.7 million children currently live in poverty in the UK"

    No they don't. Really, they don't.

    Mr @AlsoIndigo's neighbour's children might live in poverty, the number living in anything approaching actual poverty in the UK is statistically close to zero.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    If current trends continue despite not being at work on the 9th I may not even be fit for action on the Saturday with so many potential Up for Portillo moments.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,853

    I keep thinking the Tory vote will hold and not erode any further.

    Just not sure anymore.

    May: HOLD the line.

    That's the thing, despite the crap campaign, the Tory share is still above where we started before the election was called.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    @TheScreamingEagles Ben Page is saying on twitter that May is 15, not 4 points ahead of Corbyn.

    Leads like that may well be her saving grace come June 8th.

    That's best PM ratings.

    I'm talking about leader ratings.

    Jim Callaghan led Margaret Thatcher on the best PM ratings in 1979.
    Ah. I thought the best PM ratings were a reliable indicator at the last GE?
    Nope. It is leadership ratings and who is best in charge of the economy that are the reliable indicators.
    Well, we will see what mega polling weekend brings as far as that is concerned.

    If she gets back in Tories faith in her ability to negotiate a Good Brexit deal will be shot to pieces after this campaign.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    RobD said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    Funny how May isn't allowed to change her mind, but Jeremy/Dianne etc are.
    Do you trust her?

    To be a better PM for this country than Corbyn? Yes. By a mile.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    edited June 2017

    You do have to wonder at what point the public at large realise that a Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott government are just a tick away and that that tick moves decisively to conservative.

    Are we really going to elect a marxist socialist government under the power of the trade unions.

    Re labour and their 10,000 police Abbott confirmed today that they will not be in place before the end of the Parliament. Wonder how many expect them on the streets next week

    Once again, since that was the alternative, WHY CALL THE ELECTION?

    The Tory line that "the other lot are simply too dangerous" cannot resonate in an election that they called voluntarily three years early.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    She can certainly be trusted more the Corbyn and McDonnel who have lied through their teeth the whole campaign. Even if truthfulness was an issue, its a poor second to support for terrorists and anti-British groups, and economic illiteracy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Vote Leave had the right demographics and strategic nerds on its side.
  • Alice_AforethoughtAlice_Aforethought Posts: 772
    edited June 2017

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    I don't think I count as a PB Tory but she is certainly vacillating.

    - Remainer then a Leaver
    - Campaigned on no NI increase for the self employed, then increased it, then cancelled it
    - We didn't need an election then we did
    - Social care

    As someone astutely pointed out the other day, the Tories are now paying the price for her coronation (cf Brown 2007-10).

    The thing is the opposition's characterisations are often accurate and it's a question of whether you care that it is. Would any PB Labour supporter seriously now argue that the 'demon eyes' posters of Blair were inaccurate or unfair? Or the one with Miliband in Salmond's pocket?
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911


    On twitter many Corbyn supporters genuinely believe that it'll be those on 80k who will 'pay' for all of the things in the manifesto. They've even been mocking those on 35k for not voting Corbyn, saying that they won't be taxed so why are they worried.

    Just shows their naivety and stupidity.

    We will all pay more tax. A lot more.
    If you make £300 a day. £1500 a week. you only get £810 (deductions of student loan/pension included) its about 940-950 without pension/loan)

    When I get my p60, its sole destroying to see over a year how much tax and especially national insurance you've paid and you get nothing from it. I don't use the nhs, i'm not unemployed, i don't run a business, I commute to work.

    I pay council tax, road tax, health insurance, denplan, have insurance for my cat, pay for my tv, electricity, gas, water, pay for my train to work, pay for my car insurance, pay for home insurance.

    I wonder what my taxes are paying for when I get nothing from it. We should have opt out for public services :) I don't want to pay for people to see their gp for example - OPT OUT.
    Amen to that.

    If everyone was like me, like my family, friends and like pretty much everyone I know and have ever known, we could:

    Do away with social services (Never known anyone use it or need it)
    Do away with the police (I know nobody who has ever committed a crime)
    Do away with the court system
    Reduce NHS spending by 75%

    The state has to spend a genuinely terrifying amount of money on dealing with people whose behaviour is - out of choice - simply bad.

    OK I am going to get flamed for this but fuck it I am pissed off of paying vast amounts of tax to be spent on the feckless and I am terrified of a Corbyn government.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    I keep thinking the Tory vote will hold and not erode any further.

    Just not sure anymore.

    May: HOLD the line.

    Tory vote hasn't eroded: Labour's vote share has gone up.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,853
    IanB2 said:

    You do have to wonder at what point the public at large realise that a Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott government are just a tick away and that that tick moves decisively to conservative.

    Are we really going to elect a marxist socialist government under the power of the trade unions.

    Re labour and their 10,000 police Abbott confirmed today that they will not be in place before the end of the Parliament. Wonder how many expect them on the streets next week

    Once again, since that was the alternative, WHY CALL THE ELECTION?

    The Tory line that "the other lot are simply too dangerous" cannot resonate in an election that they called voluntarily three years early.
    Mainly to stop TSE's incessant sniping about her lack of mandate :p
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    Sandpit said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    LOL, I got three seconds into that video.

    "3.7 million children currently live in poverty in the UK"

    No they don't. Really, they don't.

    Mr @Indigo's neighbour's children might live in poverty, the number living in anything approaching actual poverty in the UK is statistically close to zero.
    Dont think 3 seconds is enough to see how true it is.

    Shes a Liar Liar
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Mr. Stoke, welcome to the site.

    Mr. NorthWales, it's deeply troubling. We could have an IRA sympathiser in Number Ten this time next week.

    A friend of Hamas no less.

    Plus a chancellor who is not only a marxist but who seems ok with direct action.

    And a home secretary who actually wanted Britain to lose and apart from being utterly shite has some very strange and hypocritical views.

    Christ, some of you think Brexit will be bad.

    Wait for 18 months of a hard left government pandering to the unions.






  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited June 2017

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8


    That's a beautiful video. To have a realistic chance of keeping their majority, the Tories would have to pull a spectacular out of the hat within the next few days. I am sure they will try but this could be the first election for more than 40 years in which Britain tells the Sun newspaper to shove it. Most likely the Tories will sustain further damage - it could be over by the end of Question Time tonight, even if May shows her face - and yes, there could be a decent-sized Labour majority next Friday. Infighting and crybaby whingeing among the oh-so strong and stable Tories have already begun.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    For all the doom and gloom surrounding the Tories faltering campaign I think Mr Meekes makes an interesting observation about a possible PC wipe-out. I'd extend that to the Lib Dems as well. While complete obliteration is unlikely the crazed expression in Farron's eyes and his dreadful interview with AN tells me things are going badly. Every hike in Labour's vote share in my mind shores up an equivalent notch in the Tory share from panicked status quo voters. LD's PC and Greens will be hugely squeezed. As we saw in 2015 local factors, incumbency etc are washed away by the tide.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    RobD said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    Funny how May isn't allowed to change her mind, but Jeremy/Dianne etc are.
    Do you trust her?

    To be a better PM for this country than Corbyn? Yes. By a mile.

    oh god yes - mind you that is such a low bar.
  • Previous Tory leaders have been conspicuously invisible in this election, anyone have any thoughts why?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,329
    edited June 2017

    Sandpit said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    LOL, I got three seconds into that video.

    "3.7 million children currently live in poverty in the UK"

    No they don't. Really, they don't.

    Mr @Indigo's neighbour's children might live in poverty, the number living in anything approaching actual poverty in the UK is statistically close to zero.
    Dont think 3 seconds is enough to see how true it is.

    Shes a Liar Liar
    The video starts with a whopping great lie, why should I believe the rest of it?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678

    @TheScreamingEagles Ben Page is saying on twitter that May is 15, not 4 points ahead of Corbyn.

    Leads like that may well be her saving grace come June 8th.

    That's best PM ratings.

    I'm talking about leader ratings.

    Jim Callaghan led Margaret Thatcher on the best PM ratings in 1979.
    People tend to forget this! The Tories won despite the Iron Lady in '79, not because of her.

    Of course, there is an extent to which this reflected Sunny Jim being a nice fellow, plus a slice of low level sexism (Thatcher didn't "look" like a PM).
    True, but Con lead on leadership, economy, Brexit and immigration. There is a big disconnect between the top-line numbers and the subsidiaries. Maybe that disconnect will continue through to and beyond polling day but the precedent is otherwise.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,853
    Cyan said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8


    That's a beautiful video. To have a realistic chance of keeping their majority, the Tories would have to pull a spectacular out of the hat within the next few days. I am sure they will try but this could be the first election for more than 40 years in which Britain tells the Sun newspaper to shove it. Most likely the Tories will sustain further damage - it could be over by the end of Question Time tonight, even if May shows her face - and yes, there could be a decent-sized Labour majority next Friday. Infighting and crybaby whingeing among the oh-so strong and stable Tories have already begun.
    Labour have to gain a hundred seats for a majority. Would love to see that list.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    RobD said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    Funny how May isn't allowed to change her mind, but Jeremy/Dianne etc are.
    Changing your mind over thirty years is rather more understandable than the day after?

    Thirty or forty years ago our good friend Mr Palmer claims to have believed in gulags and show trials.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    @TheScreamingEagles Ben Page is saying on twitter that May is 15, not 4 points ahead of Corbyn.

    Leads like that may well be her saving grace come June 8th.

    That's best PM ratings.

    I'm talking about leader ratings.

    Jim Callaghan led Margaret Thatcher on the best PM ratings in 1979.
    Ah. I thought the best PM ratings were a reliable indicator at the last GE?
    Nope. It is leadership ratings and who is best in charge of the economy that are the reliable indicators.
    Well, we will see what mega polling weekend brings as far as that is concerned.

    If she gets back in Tories faith in her ability to negotiate a Good Brexit deal will be shot to pieces after this campaign.
    Why do you trust the polling?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,504
    Sandpit said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    LOL, I got three seconds into that video.

    "3.7 million children currently live in poverty in the UK"

    No they don't. Really, they don't.

    Mr @AlsoIndigo's neighbour's children might live in poverty, the number living in anything approaching actual poverty in the UK is statistically close to zero.
    Even the academics who proposed relative poverty now say it is totally misused for purposes that were not its intentions.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    Sandpit said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    LOL, I got three seconds into that video.

    "3.7 million children currently live in poverty in the UK"

    No they don't. Really, they don't.

    Mr @Indigo's neighbour's children might live in poverty, the number living in anything approaching actual poverty in the UK is statistically close to zero.
    Dont think 3 seconds is enough to see how true it is.

    Shes a Liar Liar
    Glad to see the level of debate has settled around the level you are comfortable with.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    She can certainly be trusted more the Corbyn and McDonnel who have lied through their teeth the whole campaign. Even if truthfulness was an issue, its a poor second to support for terrorists and anti-British groups, and economic illiteracy.
    mind you - the negative ratings of a Labour / SNP crap fest government would be a sight to behold within a year.
  • Cyan said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8


    That's a beautiful video. To have a realistic chance of keeping their majority, the Tories would have to pull a spectacular out of the hat within the next few days. I am sure they will try but this could be the first election for more than 40 years in which Britain tells the Sun newspaper to shove it. Most likely the Tories will sustain further damage - it could be over by the end of Question Time tonight, even if May shows her face - and yes, there could be a decent-sized Labour majority next Friday. Infighting and crybaby whingeing among the oh-so strong and stable Tories have already begun.
    Which 100 English and Welsh seats will Labour gain for that to occur?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.

    Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    The funny thing is that if it wasn't for our preconceptions about Corbyn's unelectability it would be reasonable to assume he was gliding to a narrow victory or at worst a very narrow defeat.

    Perhaps we've misjudged the mood like we did over Brexit Trump and Cameron?
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    isam said:

    @TheScreamingEagles Ben Page is saying on twitter that May is 15, not 4 points ahead of Corbyn.

    Leads like that may well be her saving grace come June 8th.

    That's best PM ratings.

    I'm talking about leader ratings.

    Jim Callaghan led Margaret Thatcher on the best PM ratings in 1979.
    Ah. I thought the best PM ratings were a reliable indicator at the last GE?
    Nope. It is leadership ratings and who is best in charge of the economy that are the reliable indicators.
    Well, we will see what mega polling weekend brings as far as that is concerned.

    If she gets back in Tories faith in her ability to negotiate a Good Brexit deal will be shot to pieces after this campaign.
    Why do you trust the polling?
    I don't know what to believe right now.

    Maybe the polls are wrong, we will see.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Previous Tory leaders have been conspicuously invisible in this election, anyone have any thoughts why?

    I was more interested in why future Tory leaders have been so invisible? Apart, possibly, from Ms Rudd.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,329

    Previous Tory leaders have been conspicuously invisible in this election, anyone have any thoughts why?

    Sir John Major would be bloody useful to have around right now, but he burned his bridges a year ago with probably the worst scaremongering of the whole Remain campaign.

    William Hague has been active in the print media, if not too much on the TV.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    The reality is none of them can be trusted. They are all not being truthful to the public about what the future will be like.
    Exactly - and if they try to be honest look what happens.
  • IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    Funny how May isn't allowed to change her mind, but Jeremy/Dianne etc are.
    Changing your mind over thirty years is rather more understandable than the day after?

    Thirty or forty years ago our good friend Mr Palmer claims to have believed in gulags and show trials.
    There are certain people who say they no longer do, but they still do really. They just don't think they can say it out loud.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,504
    edited June 2017
    All the straw grasping with this measure or that measure...it is now either the polls are all herding around a total bullshit number and we are looking at the biggest polling error since the last polling error or it is now too close to call.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.

    Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
    I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Thanks for sharing Mr M - the most enjoyable three and a quarter minutes of the campaign!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,853
    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.

    Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
    I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
    Why would she replace Davis??
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    New Zealand's innings seems to have been modelled on the Tory general election campaign

    That bad?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.

    Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
    I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
    Where has this thing about Gummer replacing Davis come from?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    No idea what's going to happen but I have to say I think some people are having a lot of fun poking the jittery Tory dog ;)
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    Mr. Stoke, welcome to the site.

    Mr. NorthWales, it's deeply troubling. We could have an IRA sympathiser in Number Ten this time next week.

    Whom Sinn Fein have said they will not support.

    Do give it a rest. Please. It hasn't worked, it isn't working, it will not work.
  • Roger said:

    The funny thing is that if it wasn't for our preconceptions about Corbyn's unelectability it would be reasonable to assume he was gliding to a narrow victory or at worst a very narrow defeat.

    Perhaps we've misjudged the mood like we did over Brexit Trump and Cameron?

    Roger

    If so, which 100 seats in England and Wales is he going to take?

    It's not obvious to me where Labour gains come from.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers.
    "Vote Theresa. Get Boris"?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,504

    Mr. Stoke, welcome to the site.

    Mr. NorthWales, it's deeply troubling. We could have an IRA sympathiser in Number Ten this time next week.

    Whom Sinn Fein have said they will not support.

    Do give it a rest. Please. It hasn't worked, it isn't working, it will not work.
    But it is the truth....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Sandpit said:

    Previous Tory leaders have been conspicuously invisible in this election, anyone have any thoughts why?

    Sir John Major would be bloody useful to have around right now, but he burned his bridges a year ago with probably the worst scaremongering of the whole Remain campaign.

    William Hague has been active in the print media, if not too much on the TV.
    Major did at least have the good sense to realise that, when you appear to be falling behind in an election, the right response is to become more visible, meet the public, and get stuck in...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,329
    edited June 2017

    Sandpit said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    LOL, I got three seconds into that video.

    "3.7 million children currently live in poverty in the UK"

    No they don't. Really, they don't.

    Mr @AlsoIndigo's neighbour's children might live in poverty, the number living in anything approaching actual poverty in the UK is statistically close to zero.
    Even the academics who proposed relative poverty now say it is totally misused for purposes that were not its intentions.
    Yes, by no reasonable definition is only being able to afford an iPhone 6 when your neighbour has an iPhone 7 "poverty"

    One of the relative measures reduced massively during the last recession, purely due to a reduction in the incomes of the top decille. At best it's a measure of inequality, at worst it's outright bollocks.

    I wonder how many "children living in poverty" watch Sky TV?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Cyan said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8


    That's a beautiful video. To have a realistic chance of keeping their majority, the Tories would have to pull a spectacular out of the hat within the next few days. I am sure they will try but this could be the first election for more than 40 years in which Britain tells the Sun newspaper to shove it. Most likely the Tories will sustain further damage - it could be over by the end of Question Time tonight, even if May shows her face - and yes, there could be a decent-sized Labour majority next Friday. Infighting and crybaby whingeing among the oh-so strong and stable Tories have already begun.
    No this is where you lot fundamentally misunderestimate the nature of most Cons voters (can't speak for all here on PB). We respect the will of the people. If more people decide to vote Jezza than Tezza on the 8th then so be it. It is not a question of damaging anything, it is a question of two fairly comprehensible options put to the public and then they decide.

    Now, Tories might not quite understand how, in the face of what we perceive to be strong evidence against Labour (disliking their own country, set to ruin the economy, free owls) people can still vote for them. But that's fine. Even you Cyan have every right to vote for them and I would not condemn or dislike you (perhaps just a touch of ridicule), but mainly just scratch my head in wonder.

    Then again, it's been a year for it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Signing back on just because of a truly brilliant election leaflet (got Green and Labour today).

    The Labour one is very well put together (the local party seem to have become very well organised since the influx of members post Corbyn), but its attempts to make the seat seem winnable are rather hilarious. In maintaining that 'Labour can win here' they point out they are the largest party in one of the local town councils (3 out of 8 total, 4 independents, all uncontested, as it happens), and that the candidate stood in 'one of the toughest' locals seats in May, 'finishing second with over 20% of the vote'.

    Wow, a whole 20%? Come on, that shows 'Labour can win here'? The winning Tory got 66%.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    I think that the Tories plus sympathetic business types (with credibility) need to attack Corbyn on the economic front - especially mortgages and jobs. I'm nervous and was made more so by a conversation in the office yesterday. An intelligent but not politically engaged middle aged co-worker stated he was tempted by Labour over the student fees pledge. He has children in secondary school. A hell of a lot of people have only a partial grasp and Labour have fought a good but unscrupulous campaign. To me the Labour manifesto would be an economic disaster but the main objection to Corbyn and the unholy trinity is moral repugnance over terrorism and support for vile anti-western groups.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Roger said:

    The funny thing is that if it wasn't for our preconceptions about Corbyn's unelectability it would be reasonable to assume he was gliding to a narrow victory or at worst a very narrow defeat.

    Perhaps we've misjudged the mood like we did over Brexit Trump and Cameron?

    If it was for preconceptions about Corbyn's unelectability then we wouldn't be even having an election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,926

    Roger said:

    The funny thing is that if it wasn't for our preconceptions about Corbyn's unelectability it would be reasonable to assume he was gliding to a narrow victory or at worst a very narrow defeat.

    Perhaps we've misjudged the mood like we did over Brexit Trump and Cameron?

    Roger

    If so, which 100 seats in England and Wales is he going to take?

    It's not obvious to me where Labour gains come from.
    For either the Labour or the Tories, if the votes go a certain way the seats will fall !

    I think we all have seen enough from the USA, Lib Dems 2015, SNP 2015 to realise that this can and will happen.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.

    Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
    I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
    Where has this thing about Gummer replacing Davis come from?
    Today's Times newspaper. Claimed top Tory source (anon of course)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Sandpit said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    LOL, I got three seconds into that video.

    "3.7 million children currently live in poverty in the UK"

    No they don't. Really, they don't.

    Mr @AlsoIndigo's neighbour's children might live in poverty, the number living in anything approaching actual poverty in the UK is statistically close to zero.
    Even the academics who proposed relative poverty now say it is totally misused for purposes that were not its intentions.
    Anyone who wants to see children living in poverty needs to go to the slums of Indian and South American cities . There may well be some poor children living in the UK but no one lives in poverty .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,853
    edited June 2017
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.

    Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
    I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
    Where has this thing about Gummer replacing Davis come from?
    Today's Times newspaper. Claimed top Tory source (anon of course)
    Top Tory? Must be a backbencher then. Sacking the Brexit secretary would be utterly stupid.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Mr. Stoke, welcome to the site.

    Mr. NorthWales, it's deeply troubling. We could have an IRA sympathiser in Number Ten this time next week.

    Whom Sinn Fein have said they will not support.

    Do give it a rest. Please. It hasn't worked, it isn't working, it will not work.
    Really? I thought they'd take their seats for the first time to support a Labour minority government.

    But yes, the IRA stuff really isn't working. People want to know how politics can make their everyday lives better.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,303

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.

    Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
    I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
    Where has this thing about Gummer replacing Davis come from?
    The Times.

    Looks like Mrs May wants to promote David Davis to Foreign Secretary.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    @TheScreamingEagles Ben Page is saying on twitter that May is 15, not 4 points ahead of Corbyn.

    Leads like that may well be her saving grace come June 8th.

    That's best PM ratings.

    I'm talking about leader ratings.

    Jim Callaghan led Margaret Thatcher on the best PM ratings in 1979.
    Ah. I thought the best PM ratings were a reliable indicator at the last GE?
    Nope. It is leadership ratings and who is best in charge of the economy that are the reliable indicators.
    Well, we will see what mega polling weekend brings as far as that is concerned.

    If she gets back in Tories faith in her ability to negotiate a Good Brexit deal will be shot to pieces after this campaign.
    Why do you trust the polling?
    I don't know what to believe right now.

    Maybe the polls are wrong, we will see.
    I think the most interesting aspect of polling is the psychology of those who follow and/or are involved with them.

    It really is akin to the charlatanry of early religion or modern day conjurors. We see it on this thread. People make comments that cover all results then repeatedly refer to and link to those that are proven, while pretending the ones that were wrong never happened.

    The same with polls. No matter what the result here, most polls would have got it wrong. But those w a vested interest in them being meaningful will point to those that were correct when it suits them after the event
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    I think that the Tories plus sympathetic business types (with credibility) need to attack Corbyn on the economic front - especially mortgages and jobs. I'm nervous and was made more so by a conversation in the office yesterday. An intelligent but not politically engaged middle aged co-worker stated he was tempted by Labour over the student fees pledge. He has children in secondary school. A hell of a lot of people have only a partial grasp and Labour have fought a good but unscrupulous campaign. To me the Labour manifesto would be an economic disaster but the main objection to Corbyn and the unholy trinity is moral repugnance over terrorism and support for vile anti-western groups.

    The problem the Tories have is that their usually "sympathetic business types" are all fearful of Brexit and even more fearful when they see that May is more interested in pandering to prejudice than actually addressing their genuine concerns.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,329

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    The reality is none of them can be trusted. They are all not being truthful to the public about what the future will be like.
    The Tories tried a bit of honesty over social care, and look what happened next!

    Sadly, it looks increasingly like the electorate want to both have cake and eat cake - and think someone else should pay the baker's bill.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,926
    isam said:

    isam said:

    @TheScreamingEagles Ben Page is saying on twitter that May is 15, not 4 points ahead of Corbyn.

    Leads like that may well be her saving grace come June 8th.

    That's best PM ratings.

    I'm talking about leader ratings.

    Jim Callaghan led Margaret Thatcher on the best PM ratings in 1979.
    Ah. I thought the best PM ratings were a reliable indicator at the last GE?
    Nope. It is leadership ratings and who is best in charge of the economy that are the reliable indicators.
    Well, we will see what mega polling weekend brings as far as that is concerned.

    If she gets back in Tories faith in her ability to negotiate a Good Brexit deal will be shot to pieces after this campaign.
    Why do you trust the polling?
    I don't know what to believe right now.

    Maybe the polls are wrong, we will see.
    I think the most interesting aspect of polling is the psychology of those who follow and/or are involved with them.

    It really is akin to the charlatanry of early religion or modern day conjurors. We see it on this thread. People make comments that cover all results then repeatedly refer to and link to those that are proven, while pretending the ones that were wrong never happened.

    The same with polls. No matter what the result here, most polls would have got it wrong. But those w a vested interest in them being meaningful will point to those that were correct when it suits them after the event
    Well the polls tell us that the Lib Dems/UKIP are definitely going to come behind Labour/Tories, but past that...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548


    On twitter many Corbyn supporters genuinely believe that it'll be those on 80k who will 'pay' for all of the things in the manifesto. They've even been mocking those on 35k for not voting Corbyn, saying that they won't be taxed so why are they worried.

    Just shows their naivety and stupidity.

    We will all pay more tax. A lot more.
    If you make £300 a day. £1500 a week. you only get £810 (deductions of student loan/pension included) its about 940-950 without pension/loan)

    When I get my p60, its sole destroying to see over a year how much tax and especially national insurance you've paid and you get nothing from it. I don't use the nhs, i'm not unemployed, i don't run a business, I commute to work.

    I pay council tax, road tax, health insurance, denplan, have insurance for my cat, pay for my tv, electricity, gas, water, pay for my train to work, pay for my car insurance, pay for home insurance.

    I wonder what my taxes are paying for when I get nothing from it. We should have opt out for public services :) I don't want to pay for people to see their gp for example - OPT OUT.
    You think road tax covers roads? Even nearly?
    Or

    Where infrastructure paid for by someone else exists for you. Where social constructs depending on what you say you don't use have existed. Where your university education, despite the contribution you are making, was heavily subsidised by other taxpayers (your student loan and fees didn't cover all that, not by a long chalk).

    Where entrepreneurs can take risks because there's a safety net. Where you yourself could benefit from an education. And one day you WILL need the NHS or social care, unless you manage to opt out of ageing.
    And I bet you'll be expecting an old age pension in the fullness of time.

    You can escape all of these impositions. Just go to an abandoned island in the middle of the Pacific. No need to support anyone else.

    That's the only way you can opt out. You can't hand back your degree to pay off the subsidy you got or the convenience of the arrangement to pay your chunk afterwards. Or your primary or secondary education. Or the law. Or the healthcare that supports the web of people, services and interactions you depend on day by day.
    There is also an insurance* element to a welfare state. None of us can be 100% sure that we will not develop MS, or a head injury, or a handicapped child. or any of the other catastrophes that I see.

    * Insurance is something that you pay for, hoping to never use. The Welfare state is the same.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.

    Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
    I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
    Where has this thing about Gummer replacing Davis come from?
    The Times.

    Looks like Mrs May wants to promote David Davis to Foreign Secretary.

    I think Theresa had better wait and see whether she even has a job this time next week before thinking too much about who gets what job...

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Mr. Bromptonaut, I have a long and distinguished history of correcting historical revisionism here. Mr. Eagles' errors of judgement are as nothing compared to those wilfully overlooking Corbyn's antics.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753

    Mr. Stoke, welcome to the site.

    Mr. NorthWales, it's deeply troubling. We could have an IRA sympathiser in Number Ten this time next week.

    Whom Sinn Fein have said they will not support.

    Do give it a rest. Please. It hasn't worked, it isn't working, it will not work.
    Really? I thought they'd take their seats for the first time to support a Labour minority government.

    But yes, the IRA stuff really isn't working. People want to know how politics can make their everyday lives better.
    It's funny how it isn't working, isn't it. Because it is indicative of a greater malaise, IMO. I don't think that Corbyn, McDonnell or Abbott feel particularly different about the UK and their antipathy towards the state I doubt has mitigated.

    And yet people are set to make these people rulers over us.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Roger said:

    The funny thing is that if it wasn't for our preconceptions about Corbyn's unelectability it would be reasonable to assume he was gliding to a narrow victory or at worst a very narrow defeat.

    Perhaps we've misjudged the mood like we did over Brexit Trump and Cameron?

    If it was for preconceptions about Corbyn's unelectability then we wouldn't be even having an election.
    I've been thinking this: if the election is this close now, then how close would it be after the Brexit deal? If the polls are right, then Corbyn in several years time would be storming it.

    We may end up having to re-think all we thought we knew about politics after June 8th.

    This would be a genuinely exciting election to witness if I wasn't scared about the economic decisions that a Corbyn government would make!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Cyan said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8


    That's a beautiful video. To have a realistic chance of keeping their majority, the Tories would have to pull a spectacular out of the hat within the next few days. I am sure they will try but this could be the first election for more than 40 years in which Britain tells the Sun newspaper to shove it. Most likely the Tories will sustain further damage - it could be over by the end of Question Time tonight, even if May shows her face - and yes, there could be a decent-sized Labour majority next Friday. Infighting and crybaby whingeing among the oh-so strong and stable Tories have already begun.
    A Labour majority next Friday? Which 90+ gains from the Tories, exactly, are you expecting them to make?

    The Tories have been shite, true, but this level of delusion is outstanding.

    Tell me: if the Tories *do* win an overall majority, and given how well Labour supporters reacted post GE2015, just how massive will the strop be they throw this time?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    One wonders how many conversations have happened in small businesses and medium sized ones along the lines of 'if Labour put up corporation tax there will be cutbacks and job losses'
    Might be making a difference at the margins.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Sandpit said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    LOL, I got three seconds into that video.

    "3.7 million children currently live in poverty in the UK"

    No they don't. Really, they don't.

    Mr @AlsoIndigo's neighbour's children might live in poverty, the number living in anything approaching actual poverty in the UK is statistically close to zero.
    Even the academics who proposed relative poverty now say it is totally misused for purposes that were not its intentions.
    Anyone who wants to see children living in poverty needs to go to the slums of Indian and South American cities . There may well be some poor children living in the UK but no one lives in poverty .
    And child poverty is lower now than when the Tories took charge in 2010.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,114

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Thanks for sharing Mr M - the most enjoyable three and a quarter minutes of the campaign!
    Great stuff....I'm so enjoying the reaction of the usual pb Tories here....

    The Tories gave us Brexit. In the very unlikely event Corbyn becomes our next PM, he couldn't even compare to the rampant vandalism caused to this country by the posh boys playing politics with our future.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113

    Mr. Stoke, welcome to the site.

    Mr. NorthWales, it's deeply troubling. We could have an IRA sympathiser in Number Ten this time next week.

    Whom Sinn Fein have said they will not support.

    Do give it a rest. Please. It hasn't worked, it isn't working, it will not work.
    Really? I thought they'd take their seats for the first time to support a Labour minority government.

    But yes, the IRA stuff really isn't working. People want to know how politics can make their everyday lives better.
    They've said they won't.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    IanB2 said:

    I think that the Tories plus sympathetic business types (with credibility) need to attack Corbyn on the economic front - especially mortgages and jobs. I'm nervous and was made more so by a conversation in the office yesterday. An intelligent but not politically engaged middle aged co-worker stated he was tempted by Labour over the student fees pledge. He has children in secondary school. A hell of a lot of people have only a partial grasp and Labour have fought a good but unscrupulous campaign. To me the Labour manifesto would be an economic disaster but the main objection to Corbyn and the unholy trinity is moral repugnance over terrorism and support for vile anti-western groups.

    The problem the Tories have is that their usually "sympathetic business types" are all fearful of Brexit and even more fearful when they see that May is more interested in pandering to prejudice than actually addressing their genuine concerns.
    Good point but hoping for a hung parliament to spike Brexit is a very dangerous game. Lunacy is being normalised and extreme leftist dogma is being legitimised by those supporting Labour who are not "true believers".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Sandpit said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    The reality is none of them can be trusted. They are all not being truthful to the public about what the future will be like.
    The Tories tried a bit of honesty over social care, and look what happened next!

    Sadly, it looks increasingly like the electorate want to both have cake and eat cake - and think someone else should pay the baker's bill.
    Aka you can't have a full bottle and a drunken wife.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    isam said:

    People should re read the threads on here from the weeks preceding GE2015 and last years EU ref.

    The narrative was NOM was value at 1.1 and Leave were fucked. Remainers used to post the Leave price every time it drifted as a troll!
    People accepted these narratives and managed to save face by reacting to the exit poll and using @AndyJS spreadsheet

    Why would it be different this time?

    It won't be.

    Where on Earth is this groundswell for a socialist revolution - sufficient to put Labour under Corbyn on 40%, in the universe according to Ipsos - meant to be coming from? A figure like that suggests that Labour is within MOE of matching its vote share in 2001. Given the current strength of the SNP, that probably implies that it is doing as well or better, on that measure, than in 2001 in England.

    Even if we accept the likelihood that we're moving back toward a two-party system in England and Wales, which in turn implies that Labour really ought to be doing better than last time, that still sounds like crap - because it is. It's suggestive of Labour consistently racking up vote shares of 30-35% in seats all over Southern England and the rural Midlands, and winning absolute majorities right across its traditional heartlands, and not just in the inner city cores. It requires one to believe that there has been a massive sea-change in public opinion nationwide since the local elections only a few weeks ago, and that all of the scepticism about Labour's leadership and policies - especially amongst the less affluent and Leave-leaning parts of its old core vote - have vanished in a puff of smoke since the start of the campaign.

    If this is all meant to make some sort of sense then I give up, because I don't understand how.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Thanks for sharing Mr M - the most enjoyable three and a quarter minutes of the campaign!
    Least enjoyable 3 seconds for SandPit
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    I think that the Tories plus sympathetic business types (with credibility) need to attack Corbyn on the economic front - especially mortgages and jobs. I'm nervous and was made more so by a conversation in the office yesterday. An intelligent but not politically engaged middle aged co-worker stated he was tempted by Labour over the student fees pledge. He has children in secondary school. A hell of a lot of people have only a partial grasp and Labour have fought a good but unscrupulous campaign. To me the Labour manifesto would be an economic disaster but the main objection to Corbyn and the unholy trinity is moral repugnance over terrorism and support for vile anti-western groups.

    I'm not an economist but my basic understanding would be if Lab won - the cost of servicing the UK's vast national debt would increase so there would be even less money for Labour's free owls than before. The rest of us would just be paying more in interest for our mortgages and watching house prices and job opportunities decline as the UK went into a slow down.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.

    Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
    I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
    Where has this thing about Gummer replacing Davis come from?
    Today's Times newspaper. Claimed top Tory source (anon of course)
    Top Tory? Must be a backbencher then. Sacking the Brexit secretary would be utterly stupid.
    Read it again. How is becoming FS a "sacking"??
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    I think that the Tories plus sympathetic business types (with credibility) need to attack Corbyn on the economic front - especially mortgages and jobs. I'm nervous and was made more so by a conversation in the office yesterday. An intelligent but not politically engaged middle aged co-worker stated he was tempted by Labour over the student fees pledge. He has children in secondary school. A hell of a lot of people have only a partial grasp and Labour have fought a good but unscrupulous campaign. To me the Labour manifesto would be an economic disaster but the main objection to Corbyn and the unholy trinity is moral repugnance over terrorism and support for vile anti-western groups.


    I agree. The week ahead has to be on economic competence. Many people will be naive about Corbyn, ignorant of both his past terrorist sympathies and his crazy economic plans.

    But the only one they will care about is when it hits them in the wallet, and they need to know that their children will be far worse off with Corbyn (pledge or no pledge).

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The IRA stuff isn't working so well that Labour are whining about it

    https://twitter.com/gdnpolitics/status/870665304224833537
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.

    Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
    I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
    Where has this thing about Gummer replacing Davis come from?
    The Times.

    Looks like Mrs May wants to promote David Davis to Foreign Secretary.
    I agree Boris needs to be moved.

    Davis seems to be doing a good job to me.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    isam said:

    isam said:

    @TheScreamingEagles Ben Page is saying on twitter that May is 15, not 4 points ahead of Corbyn.

    Leads like that may well be her saving grace come June 8th.

    That's best PM ratings.

    I'm talking about leader ratings.

    Jim Callaghan led Margaret Thatcher on the best PM ratings in 1979.
    Ah. I thought the best PM ratings were a reliable indicator at the last GE?
    Nope. It is leadership ratings and who is best in charge of the economy that are the reliable indicators.
    Well, we will see what mega polling weekend brings as far as that is concerned.

    If she gets back in Tories faith in her ability to negotiate a Good Brexit deal will be shot to pieces after this campaign.
    Why do you trust the polling?
    I don't know what to believe right now.

    Maybe the polls are wrong, we will see.
    I think the most interesting aspect of polling is the psychology of those who follow and/or are involved with them.

    It really is akin to the charlatanry of early religion or modern day conjurors. We see it on this thread. People make comments that cover all results then repeatedly refer to and link to those that are proven, while pretending the ones that were wrong never happened.

    The same with polls. No matter what the result here, most polls would have got it wrong. But those w a vested interest in them being meaningful will point to those that were correct when it suits them after the event
    Polls have come to shape the entire political narrative. Without them, there is no political narrative. That's why there is a compulsion to believe polls - even during a period when pollsters have got it spectacularly wrong - EUref, GE 2015 etc. Even I am starting to think the polls might be right, because right now it seems delusional to totally dismiss them. But hey, we could be on course for another polling disaster. If that's the case, then I think those interested in politics must let go of looking too much into polls.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

    Any PB Tories still believe she can be trusted?
    Funny how May isn't allowed to change her mind, but Jeremy/Dianne etc are.
    Do you trust her?
    Generally, yes.
    Oh dear. How sad Never mind!!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.

    Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
    I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
    Where has this thing about Gummer replacing Davis come from?
    The Times.

    Looks like Mrs May wants to promote David Davis to Foreign Secretary.

    I think Theresa had better wait and see whether she even has a job this time next week before thinking too much about who gets what job...

    Rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Norm said:

    I think that the Tories plus sympathetic business types (with credibility) need to attack Corbyn on the economic front - especially mortgages and jobs. I'm nervous and was made more so by a conversation in the office yesterday. An intelligent but not politically engaged middle aged co-worker stated he was tempted by Labour over the student fees pledge. He has children in secondary school. A hell of a lot of people have only a partial grasp and Labour have fought a good but unscrupulous campaign. To me the Labour manifesto would be an economic disaster but the main objection to Corbyn and the unholy trinity is moral repugnance over terrorism and support for vile anti-western groups.

    I'm not an economist but my basic understanding would be if Lab won - the cost of servicing the UK's vast national debt would increase so there would be even less money for Labour's free owls than before. The rest of us would just be paying more in interest for our mortgages and watching house prices and job opportunities decline as the UK went into a slow down.
    You need to get out more. Debt servicing costs may well be a real concern, but it is not what is keeping potential anti-Tory voters awake at night.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2017

    isam said:

    People should re read the threads on here from the weeks preceding GE2015 and last years EU ref.

    The narrative was NOM was value at 1.1 and Leave were fucked. Remainers used to post the Leave price every time it drifted as a troll!
    People accepted these narratives and managed to save face by reacting to the exit poll and using @AndyJS spreadsheet

    Why would it be different this time?

    It won't be.

    Where on Earth is this groundswell for a socialist revolution - sufficient to put Labour under Corbyn on 40%, in the universe according to Ipsos - meant to be coming from? A figure like that suggests that Labour is within MOE of matching its vote share in 2001. Given the current strength of the SNP, that probably implies that it is doing as well or better, on that measure, than in 2001 in England.

    Even if we accept the likelihood that we're moving back toward a two-party system in England and Wales, which in turn implies that Labour really ought to be doing better than last time, that still sounds like crap - because it is. It's suggestive of Labour consistently racking up vote shares of 30-35% in seats all over Southern England and the rural Midlands, and winning absolute majorities right across its traditional heartlands, and not just in the inner city cores. It requires one to believe that there has been a massive sea-change in public opinion nationwide since the local elections only a few weeks ago, and that all of the scepticism about Labour's leadership and policies - especially amongst the less affluent and Leave-leaning parts of its old core vote - have vanished in a puff of smoke since the start of the campaign.

    If this is all meant to make some sort of sense then I give up, because I don't understand how.
    In 2015 & 16 we had real national votes, not skewed surveys of the politically engaged, and over 50% voted for Con+Ukip and Leave. I can't imagine many of those people are Corbynites.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Pollsters' and academics' might wonder about their ability to predict outcomes.

    This from LSE could calm some nerves, but if it is wrong, a new model might be needed after next Friday.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-polls-the-fundamentals-and-ge2017/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,329

    Cyan said:

    There has been a lot of excitement about a video racking up a lot of views on Facebook. There's another video that's also been racking up a lot of views that hasn't been commented on but I suspect is also having its influence:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8


    That's a beautiful video. To have a realistic chance of keeping their majority, the Tories would have to pull a spectacular out of the hat within the next few days. I am sure they will try but this could be the first election for more than 40 years in which Britain tells the Sun newspaper to shove it. Most likely the Tories will sustain further damage - it could be over by the end of Question Time tonight, even if May shows her face - and yes, there could be a decent-sized Labour majority next Friday. Infighting and crybaby whingeing among the oh-so strong and stable Tories have already begun.
    A Labour majority next Friday? Which 90+ gains from the Tories, exactly, are you expecting them to make?

    The Tories have been shite, true, but this level of delusion is outstanding.

    Tell me: if the Tories *do* win an overall majority, and given how well Labour supporters reacted post GE2015, just how massive will the strop be they throw this time?
    Can anyone who thinks Labour will get a majority please head over to Betfair and put their money where their mouth is: currently priced at 27 and lots available. I'd quite like the 1.25 on the Tory majority to be a little nearer 1.33 before I bet the mortgage on it.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.119040708
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Davis seems to be doing a good job to me.

    By what measure?

    He hasn't actually done anything yet
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,853
    IanB2 said:

    RobD said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Was Vote Leave's campaign this bad though ?

    Not even comparable.
    Vote Leave had popular easy to remember policies (never mind if they were true or not they worked).

    * Control our borders with an australian style points system

    * £350million for the NHS

    and a great slogan, you knew what they wnated to achieve and it was right for the time of people feeling powerless, it didn't just try to scare people it gave people a reason to vote FOR them. Theresa has done the opposite of this, if the tories retain power, she will be gone within 5 minutes I rekon, pushed out by the head bangers. She is more REMAIN and Hillary then Leave.

    Just today we saw tory "sources" saying Davis will be replaced by a remainer *when* they win a landslide. Hubris much?
    I thought the script was Gummer to replace Davis, Davis to replace Johnson, Johnson to go....wts?
    Where has this thing about Gummer replacing Davis come from?
    Today's Times newspaper. Claimed top Tory source (anon of course)
    Top Tory? Must be a backbencher then. Sacking the Brexit secretary would be utterly stupid.
    Read it again. How is becoming FS a "sacking"??
    Ah cheers. Still think it's utterly stupid to move him 11 days before negotiations start.
This discussion has been closed.