What's the running (down the leg) total for the Conservative Bedwetters this afternoon ?
I do not know, but I have tears of laughter running down my cheeks. Reading some of this lot has been a hoot.
I wonder what will ACTUALLY happen? Roll on Thursday...
(BTW, I am expecting a Tory win, less than 50 seats)
I'm glad you're enjoying yourself
At least this GE hasn't been boring, I guess.
If 'landslide' is defined as >100, what's the word for 50-100 - a semi-landslide? I think that's the most likely. Not sure if the odds on it will offer any value, though.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the polls and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
Except the pollsters are almost all furiously making significant adjustments to their raw results to compensate for precisely that?
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
As the pollsters have made methodological changes because of the errors last time , it is most unlikely they will be wrong in the same direction as last time by the same amount . More likely that the they have over corrected and the error is the other way .
Much as I hate to admit this Labour probably ahead in a fair few "raws".
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
You may be confusing correlation with causation - CT receipts could have risen as it's a smaller %, but of a much bigger profit base...
The bigger profit base coming about because more businesses established themselves and those already established made more profit in the more business friendly environment caused by the reductions in CT. The FT gets this. Just a shame the Left do not.
What's the running (down the leg) total for the Conservative Bedwetters this afternoon ?
I do not know, but I have tears of laughter running down my cheeks. Reading some of this lot has been a hoot.
I wonder what will ACTUALLY happen? Roll on Thursday...
(BTW, I am expecting a Tory win, less than 50 seats)
Yes, this election is doing nothing for my productivity at work. Still think there will be a workable Tory majority albeit ideally the smaller the better and if they need DUP votes it's popcorn time. As I've said before I want the Tories to own the subsequent mess.
That said, there are going to be some really weird results next Thursday night. One or two from way beyond leftfield I reckon. Lab gain Camborne & Redruth anyone? Only jesting
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
1.6bn from VAT on private school fees. - suddenly creates drop of 20% of those who can no longer afford - that's an additional 20% of approx 625000, with a further risk that the drop in numbers would then make some schools unviable. Admittedly those leaving would be on the lowest fees but realistically you might only get 1.4 billion and have to create 125 - 200k additional school places. 1 teacher per 30 kids that's an additional 6667 teachers at average 25k = 166,675,000. Then you would need new schools to house these children, and to expand provision. In 2012 the guardian report a school cost of 14 million. So you will have to build a staff at least 125 new schools at 14 million so a guess of 350 million. But these schools are needed straight away and cannot be built by a contractor whose chief executive has remuneration more than 20 times the tea boy.
I'm pretty sure this is fully costed in the 5 page costing document
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the pols and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
I'm not sure left/right is particularly relevant right now.
This is status quo / anti status quo. The polls are as likely to be underestimating labour as they are the tories.
I think it was @pulpstar who was the first to notice the comments btl on the daily mail were really anti-May after the campaign kicked in.
She's a liar, liar ooooh.
The anti status quo being a bloke who has been an MP 34 years?
Seen other reporters from across the political spectrum saying similar things, that they aren't seeing this Labour surge when talking to MP's campaigning. Just check social media.
Who knows? Election night has gone from an early night to a must watch especially if the polls continue to narrow as well as leadership ratings.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the pols and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
I'm not sure left/right is particularly relevant right now.
This is status quo / anti status quo. The polls are as likely to be underestimating labour as they are the tories.
I think it was @pulpstar who was the first to notice the comments btl on the daily mail were really anti-May after the campaign kicked in.
She's a liar, liar ooooh.
The anti status quo being a bloke who has been an MP 34 years?
If you cant see Corbyn is anti SQ you should probably visit SpecSavers
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the polls and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
But obviously the pollsters have tried to correct for that. Probably in essence some of them have done something as simple-minded as what you're suggesting. If you apply another correction on top of the first, there's a danger you'll end up with a one that's twice the size it should be.
What we have now is pollsters' best guess. There's no particular reason to think it favours Labour. If it's wrong, it could be wrong in either direction.
I have been thinking the same thing myself for some time. In the last election, thousands of hours were wasted by idiotic media outlets debating Hung Parliament scenarios. In this one, the press first started by assuming that the Tories would win by about 200 seats (and, therefore, spent an inordinate amount of time picking the Conservative manifesto to pieces, whilst only paying any attention e.g. to the cost of Labour's great herds of "free" ponies when Diane Abbott said something funny.) And now we have this new narrative of panic over Downing St incompetence and disappearing majorities, again because a handful of clever guesstimators in offices in London have said that this is what their dodgy numbers would suggest. We don't know if the numbers are anywhere close to being true - and, frankly, if they are then we'll probably never know how much the pollsters and the lazy hacks who report on them made the second scenario come true because they created the first one.
Of course, even if the polls fail again - and fail worse than last time - then come the next General Election the narrative will, yet again, be dominated by them. Because opinion polling has acquired this air of pseudo-scientific legitimacy, when in fact it is nothing more than guesswork, and *may* be no more valid an indicator of the political mood of the nation than looking at real wages, unemployment, mortgage interest rates and other economic indicators, for example.
If the polls are wrong then sites such as this have got to stop paying attention to them. It doesn't help that despite pollsters getting it wrong recently, we see have headers and discussion threads centred on xyz poll says this, and treating those polls as having a significant basis in reality.
You are right, but that isn't what will happen unfortunately. We will just get threads on what the pollsters said in their post fuck up inquiry, with the ones that ones that were sitting on the chair when the music stopped championed as soothsayers
It's fair to say that there's going to be a plane crash sized enquiry among the polling industry starting this time next week.
Talking of plane crashes, sell IAG shares, BA have learned nothing from their metaphorical plane crash last weekend, and all the senior management are out to cover their own arses. Shareholder revolt coming.
Independent Directors at BA are already calling for an independent review but reports say a contractor switched off the mains power by mistake
Mr. Meeks, more interesting would be if Cameron had accepted the offer of associate membership. Full trade with minimal politics would've been hugely popular, if that was really on offer.
Yes Mr D, but it was better to walk away with no deal than a bad deal.
Well, Cameron did walk away with a bad deal. Look where that got him.
Did he? I thought they told him to get lost?
All in the distant mists of time now, back in the glory days
What's the running (down the leg) total for the Conservative Bedwetters this afternoon ?
I do not know, but I have tears of laughter running down my cheeks. Reading some of this lot has been a hoot.
I wonder what will ACTUALLY happen? Roll on Thursday...
(BTW, I am expecting a Tory win, less than 50 seats)
I'm glad you're enjoying yourself
At least this GE hasn't been boring, I guess.
If 'landslide' is defined as >100, what's the word for 50-100 - a semi-landslide? I think that's the most likely. Not sure if the odds on it will offer any value, though.
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
1.6bn from VAT on private school fees. - suddenly creates drop of 20% of those who can no longer afford - that's an additional 20% of approx 625000, with a further risk that the drop in numbers would then make some schools unviable. Admittedly those leaving would be on the lowest fees but realistically you might only get 1.4 billion and have to create 125 - 200k additional school places. 1 teacher per 30 kids that's an additional 6667 teachers at average 25k = 166,675,000. Then you would need new schools to house these children, and to expand provision. In 2012 the guardian report a school cost of 14 million. So you will have to build a staff at least 125 new schools at 14 million so a guess of 350 million. But these schools are needed straight away and cannot be built by a contractor whose chief executive has remuneration more than 20 times the tea boy.
I'm pretty sure this is fully costed in the 5 page costing document
The only criticism I would make of your figures is I think they are unduly optimistic about the resilience of private schools to such a sudden, massive hike in fees. I would expect half to two thirds of PS children to be back in mainstream within twelve months.
Tories struggle to build personality cult around leader with no personality
LOL, this is true.
@SouthamObserver What do you think of all these polls? Still think the Tories are on course for a majority?
I do.
A lot of people will already have voted and there are a lot of shy Tories, IMO. In the constituency where I live - Warwick & Leamington - the only posters you can see are Labour ones. But the Tories are almost certain to increase their majority. I just think Labour voters are more willing to share their views and to be identified with their party.
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
You may be confusing correlation with causation - CT receipts could have risen as it's a smaller %, but of a much bigger profit base...
The bigger profit base coming about because more businesses established themselves and those already established made more profit in the more business friendly environment caused by the reductions in CT. The FT gets this. Just a shame the Left do not.
That argument is circular - more money from lower tax rate from more 'friendly' environment from said lower tax rate - Excel would throw a CircRef!
Bigger profits can also come from better economic circumstances generally
That's not to say that your points can't also be true, just to point out that higher tax take during a lower rate period doesn't mean the lower rate caused it/or is the only cause...
Mr. Meeks, more interesting would be if Cameron had accepted the offer of associate membership. Full trade with minimal politics would've been hugely popular, if that was really on offer.
Yes Mr D, but it was better to walk away with no deal than a bad deal.
Well, Cameron did walk away with a bad deal. Look where that got him.
Did he? I thought they told him to get lost?
All in the distant mists of time now, back in the glory days
You don't remember his much-maligned renegotiation? It was crap.
According to theupdated Lord Ashcroft poll Plaid are now FOURTH in Ceredigion
Which tells you all you need to know about Lord Ashcroft's polling methodology. It seems to have moved on very little from last time.
YouGov yesterday had Plaid Cymru on 8% across Wales. The subsample for mid and west Wales had them on 9%. If that figure is remotely correct, Plaid Cymru must have lost quite a lot of ground in Ceredigion, given that in four of the eight seats in that region they were scraping the bottom of the barrel already. It also bodes ill for the two seats in that region they hold.
Of course, it's just a subsample and not to be taken very seriously. But it fits with the wider Welsh picture and gives limited support to Lord Ashcroft's methodology.
According to theupdated Lord Ashcroft poll Plaid are now FOURTH in Ceredigion
Which tells you all you need to know about Lord Ashcroft's polling methodology. It seems to have moved on very little from last time.
YouGov yesterday had Plaid Cymru on 8% across Wales. The subsample for mid and west Wales had them on 9%. If that figure is remotely correct, Plaid Cymru must have lost quite a lot of ground in Ceredigion, given that in four of the eight seats in that region they were scraping the bottom of the barrel already. It also bodes ill for the two seats in that region they hold.
Of course, it's just a subsample and not to be taken very seriously. But it fits with the wider Welsh picture and gives limited support to Lord Ashcroft's methodology.
could be down to the large Welsh speaking student population of Aber having left for the summer
Do you think the Aber and Lampeter students are more likely Plaid or LD voters these days? I had assumed the latter but it was 20 years since I studied there.
I have been thinking the same thing myself for some time. In the last election, thousands of hours were wasted by idiotic media outlets debating Hung Parliament scenarios. In this one, the press first started by assuming that the Tories would win by about 200 seats (and, therefore, spent an inordinate amount of time picking the Conservative manifesto to pieces, whilst only paying any attention e.g. to the cost of Labour's great herds of "free" ponies when Diane Abbott said something funny.) And now we have this new narrative of panic over Downing St incompetence and disappearing majorities, again because a handful of clever guesstimators in offices in London have said that this is what their dodgy numbers would suggest. We don't know if the numbers are anywhere close to being true - and, frankly, if they are then we'll probably never know how much the pollsters and the lazy hacks who report on them made the second scenario come true because they created the first one.
Of course, even if the polls fail again - and fail worse than last time - then come the next General Election the narrative will, yet again, be dominated by them. Because opinion polling has acquired this air of pseudo-scientific legitimacy, when in fact it is nothing more than guesswork, and *may* be no more valid an indicator of the political mood of the nation than looking at real wages, unemployment, mortgage interest rates and other economic indicators, for example.
If the polls are wrong then sites such as this have got to stop paying attention to them. It doesn't help that despite pollsters getting it wrong recently, we see have headers and discussion threads centred on xyz poll says this, and treating those polls as having a significant basis in reality.
You are right, but that isn't what will happen unfortunately. We will just get threads on what the pollsters said in their post fuck up inquiry, with the ones that ones that were sitting on the chair when the music stopped championed as soothsayers
It's fair to say that there's going to be a plane crash sized enquiry among the polling industry starting this time next week.
Talking of plane crashes, sell IAG shares, BA have learned nothing from their metaphorical plane crash last weekend, and all the senior management are out to cover their own arses. Shareholder revolt coming.
Independent Directors at BA are already calling for an independent review but reports say a contractor switched off the mains power by mistake
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
You may be confusing correlation with causation - CT receipts could have risen as it's a smaller %, but of a much bigger profit base...
The bigger profit base coming about because more businesses established themselves and those already established made more profit in the more business friendly environment caused by the reductions in CT. The FT gets this. Just a shame the Left do not.
That argument is circular - more money from lower tax rate from more 'friendly' environment from said lower tax rate - Excel would throw a CircRef!
Bigger profits can also come from better economic circumstances generally
That's not to say that your points can't also be true, just to point out that higher tax take during a lower rate period doesn't mean the lower rate caused it/or is the only cause...
It's all about finding the optimum value. As with all things, it's probably somewhere in the middle.
Tories struggle to build personality cult around leader with no personality
LOL, this is true.
@SouthamObserver What do you think of all these polls? Still think the Tories are on course for a majority?
I do.
A lot of people will already have voted and there are a lot of shy Tories, IMO. In the constituency where I live - Warwick & Leamington - the only posters you can see are Labour ones. But the Tories are almost certain to increase their majority. I just think Labour voters are more willing to share their views and to be identified with their party.
You're one of the few posters on here to call EUref and Presidental Election 2016 right, so we may see a Conservative majority after all.
Just thinking now that a Hard Brexit could have the exact same impact that McDonnell economics would have, so either way we'd be in for a terrible time economically.
I'll be voting LD, despite my reservations about Farron.
Theresa May protest outside the BBC playing the 'Liar Liar' song and 'you can't trust her' so I walked passed and shouted 'no she isn't' and 'yes you can' before swiftly moving on
I have been thinking the same thing myself for some time. In the last election, thousands of hours were wasted by idiotic media outlets debating Hung Parliament scenarios. In this one, the press first started by assuming that the Tories would win by about 200 seats (and, therefore, spent an inordinate amount of time picking the Conservative manifesto to pieces, whilst only paying any attention e.g. to the cost of Labour's great herds of "free" ponies when Diane Abbott said something funny.) And now we have this new narrative of panic over Downing St incompetence and disappearing majorities, again because a handful of clever guesstimators in offices in London have said that this is what their dodgy numbers would suggest. We don't know if the numbers are anywhere close to being true - and, frankly, if they are then we'll probably never know how much the pollsters and the lazy hacks who report on them made the second scenario come true because they created the first one.
Of course, even if the polls fail again - and fail worse than last time - then come the next General Election the narrative will, yet again, be dominated by them. Because opinion polling has acquired this air of pseudo-scientific legitimacy, when in fact it is nothing more than guesswork, and *may* be no more valid an indicator of the political mood of the nation than looking at real wages, unemployment, mortgage interest rates and other economic indicators, for example.
If the polls are wrong then sites such as this have got to stop paying attention to them. It doesn't help that despite pollsters getting it wrong recently, we see have headers and discussion threads centred on xyz poll says this, and treating those polls as having a significant basis in reality.
You are right, but that isn't what will happen unfortunately. We will just get threads on what the pollsters said in their post fuck up inquiry, with the ones that ones that were sitting on the chair when the music stopped championed as soothsayers
It's fair to say that there's going to be a plane crash sized enquiry among the polling industry starting this time next week.
Talking of plane crashes, sell IAG shares, BA have learned nothing from their metaphorical plane crash last weekend, and all the senior management are out to cover their own arses. Shareholder revolt coming.
Independent Directors at BA are already calling for an independent review but reports say a contractor switched off the mains power by mistake
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the polls and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
Except the pollsters are almost all furiously making significant adjustments to their raw results to compensate for precisely that?
Tbf, pollsters making adjustments doesn't mean they can't be wrong. I'm sure pollsters made adjustments after 2015, but it didn't stop them getting EUref wrong.
Have you seen this interview? Good on charlatans who throw a lot of predictions about then focus on the one the fluked
Tories struggle to build personality cult around leader with no personality
LOL, this is true.
@SouthamObserver What do you think of all these polls? Still think the Tories are on course for a majority?
I do.
A lot of people will already have voted and there are a lot of shy Tories, IMO. In the constituency where I live - Warwick & Leamington - the only posters you can see are Labour ones. But the Tories are almost certain to increase their majority. I just think Labour voters are more willing to share their views and to be identified with their party.
You're one of the few posters on here to call EUref and Presidental Election 2016 right, so we may see a Conservative majority.
Just thinking now that a Hard Brexit could have the exact same impact that McDonnell economics would have, so either way we'd be in for a terrible time economically.
I'll be voting LD, despite my reservations about Farron.
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
1.6bn from VAT on private school fees. - suddenly creates drop of 20% of those who can no longer afford - that's an additional 20% of approx 625000, with a further risk that the drop in numbers would then make some schools unviable. Admittedly those leaving would be on the lowest fees but realistically you might only get 1.4 billion and have to create 125 - 200k additional school places. 1 teacher per 30 kids that's an additional 6667 teachers at average 25k = 166,675,000. Then you would need new schools to house these children, and to expand provision. In 2012 the guardian report a school cost of 14 million. So you will have to build a staff at least 125 new schools at 14 million so a guess of 350 million. But these schools are needed straight away and cannot be built by a contractor whose chief executive has remuneration more than 20 times the tea boy.
I'm pretty sure this is fully costed in the 5 page costing document
Independent Directors at BA are already calling for an independent review but reports say a contractor switched off the mains power by mistake
That is a standard Disaster Recovery scenario. It should have caused UPSs to cut in and the standby diesel generators to start. If that is all it was then the interruption should only have lasted minutes if noticed at all.
If they failed a standard DR scenario then somebody's head somewhere is going to roll...
Theresa May protest outside the BBC playing the 'Liar Liar' song and 'you can't trust her' so I walked passed and shouted 'no she isn't' and 'yes you can' before swiftly moving on
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the pols and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
I'm not sure left/right is particularly relevant right now.
This is status quo / anti status quo. The polls are as likely to be underestimating labour as they are the tories.
I think it was @pulpstar who was the first to notice the comments btl on the daily mail were really anti-May after the campaign kicked in.
She's a liar, liar ooooh.
The anti status quo being a bloke who has been an MP 34 years?
If you cant see Corbyn is anti SQ you should probably visit SpecSavers
He has made a decent living off the tax payer for 34 years in one of the countries oldest institutions. What a rebel!
Tories struggle to build personality cult around leader with no personality
LOL, this is true.
@SouthamObserver What do you think of all these polls? Still think the Tories are on course for a majority?
I do.
A lot of people will already have voted and there are a lot of shy Tories, IMO. In the constituency where I live - Warwick & Leamington - the only posters you can see are Labour ones. But the Tories are almost certain to increase their majority. I just think Labour voters are more willing to share their views and to be identified with their party.
You're one of the few posters on here to call EUref and Presidental Election 2016 right, so we may see a Conservative majority after all.
Just thinking now that a Hard Brexit could have the exact same impact that McDonnell economics would have, so either way we'd be in for a terrible time economically.
I'll be voting LD, despite my reservations about Farron.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the polls and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
Except the pollsters are almost all furiously making significant adjustments to their raw results to compensate for precisely that?
Tbf, pollsters making adjustments doesn't mean they can't be wrong. I'm sure pollsters made adjustments after 2015, but it didn't stop them getting EUref wrong.
Of course not. Statistically, however, it does make the direction in which the post-adjustment polls might be wrong a 50/50 call. Saying that polls "used" to understate the Tories is missing the point.
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
You may be confusing correlation with causation - CT receipts could have risen as it's a smaller %, but of a much bigger profit base...
The bigger profit base coming about because more businesses established themselves and those already established made more profit in the more business friendly environment caused by the reductions in CT. The FT gets this. Just a shame the Left do not.
That argument is circular - more money from lower tax rate from more 'friendly' environment from said lower tax rate - Excel would throw a CircRef!
Bigger profits can also come from better economic circumstances generally
That's not to say that your points can't also be true, just to point out that higher tax take during a lower rate period doesn't mean the lower rate caused it/or is the only cause...
It certainly appears to be in this case. The actual increase was just under 24% but the analysts said about half of that was due to other factors leaving around 12.5% due to the decrease in CT.
Why don't you show us a link from The Canary too! Definitely no sign of a lack of May on party literature on my doormat.
Checked the post and we've now had 9 leaflets in Maidenhead - 3 LD, 2 Con, 2 UKIP, 1 Green, 1 Just Political Party. The Con one had 6 pages plastered with pages of Tezzy as you might expect. Really surprised at how many we have had when this is the 3rd safest Con seat!
Always worth making sure your leader doesn't get decapitated.
How are things looking in Westmorland?
Westmoreland is, in theory, the safest LibDem seat.
In reality, Orkney & Shetland is the safest LibDem seat.
What's the running (down the leg) total for the Conservative Bedwetters this afternoon ?
I do not know, but I have tears of laughter running down my cheeks. Reading some of this lot has been a hoot.
I wonder what will ACTUALLY happen? Roll on Thursday...
(BTW, I am expecting a Tory win, less than 50 seats)
I'm glad you're enjoying yourself
At least this GE hasn't been boring, I guess.
If 'landslide' is defined as >100, what's the word for 50-100 - a semi-landslide? I think that's the most likely. Not sure if the odds on it will offer any value, though.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the polls and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
Except the pollsters are almost all furiously making significant adjustments to their raw results to compensate for precisely that?
Tbf, pollsters making adjustments doesn't mean they can't be wrong. I'm sure pollsters made adjustments after 2015, but it didn't stop them getting EUref wrong.
Of course not. Statistically, however, it does make the direction in which the post-adjustment polls might be wrong a 50/50 call. Saying that polls "used" to understate the Tories is missing the point.
You'd have thought they would be constantly tweaking their models after each election, yet every time the Tories are underestimated.
Mr. Meeks, more interesting would be if Cameron had accepted the offer of associate membership. Full trade with minimal politics would've been hugely popular, if that was really on offer.
Yes Mr D, but it was better to walk away with no deal than a bad deal.
Well, Cameron did walk away with a bad deal. Look where that got him.
Did he? I thought they told him to get lost?
All in the distant mists of time now, back in the glory days
He accepted a rotten deal and then tried to sell it to the public who told him to take a hike.
If the polls are wrong then sites such as this have got to stop paying attention to them. It doesn't help that despite pollsters getting it wrong recently, we see have headers and discussion threads centred on xyz poll says this, and treating those polls as having a significant basis in reality.
You are right, but that isn't what will happen unfortunately. We will just get threads on what the pollsters said in their post fuck up inquiry, with the ones that ones that were sitting on the chair when the music stopped championed as soothsayers
It's fair to say that there's going to be a plane crash sized enquiry among the polling industry starting this time next week.
Talking of plane crashes, sell IAG shares, BA have learned nothing from their metaphorical plane crash last weekend, and all the senior management are out to cover their own arses. Shareholder revolt coming.
Independent Directors at BA are already calling for an independent review but reports say a contractor switched off the mains power by mistake
Yep, that's about the fourth different story so far and it's clearly as much bollocks as all the previous ones. It would be impossible for any one switch to shut down a data centre - we call that a single point of failure in IT - and if for some magic reason it did then the backup data centre should have taken over.
That this didn't happen is management failure on an epic scale, I really wouldn't want to be Mr Cruz or Mr Walsh right now. The former hired the latter to oversee cost cutting and outsourcing of most IT functions.
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
You may be confusing correlation with causation - CT receipts could have risen as it's a smaller %, but of a much bigger profit base...
The bigger profit base coming about because more businesses established themselves and those already established made more profit in the more business friendly environment caused by the reductions in CT. The FT gets this. Just a shame the Left do not.
That argument is circular - more money from lower tax rate from more 'friendly' environment from said lower tax rate - Excel would throw a CircRef!
Bigger profits can also come from better economic circumstances generally
That's not to say that your points can't also be true, just to point out that higher tax take during a lower rate period doesn't mean the lower rate caused it/or is the only cause...
It certainly appears to be in this case. The actual increase was just under 24% but the analysts said about half of that was due to other factors leaving around 12.5% due to the decrease in CT.
Which could also be our new rate under Spreadshit Phil next week!
Independent Directors at BA are already calling for an independent review but reports say a contractor switched off the mains power by mistake
That is a standard Disaster Recovery scenario. It should have caused UPSs to cut in and the standby diesel generators to start. If that is all it was then the interruption should only have lasted minutes if noticed at all.
If they failed a standard DR scenario then somebody's head somewhere is going to roll...
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the pols and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
I'm not sure left/right is particularly relevant right now.
This is status quo / anti status quo. The polls are as likely to be underestimating labour as they are the tories.
I think it was @pulpstar who was the first to notice the comments btl on the daily mail were really anti-May after the campaign kicked in.
She's a liar, liar ooooh.
The anti status quo being a bloke who has been an MP 34 years?
If you cant see Corbyn is anti SQ you should probably visit SpecSavers
The amazing thing is that people who participated in an anti establishment kicking last June, then cheered another one on in November now seem surprised that the anti establishment mood is turning on the most pro-establishment party of all.
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Tories struggle to build personality cult around leader with no personality
LOL, this is true.
@SouthamObserver What do you think of all these polls? Still think the Tories are on course for a majority?
I do.
A lot of people will already have voted and there are a lot of shy Tories, IMO. In the constituency where I live - Warwick & Leamington - the only posters you can see are Labour ones. But the Tories are almost certain to increase their majority. I just think Labour voters are more willing to share their views and to be identified with their party.
You're one of the few posters on here to call EUref and Presidental Election 2016 right, so we may see a Conservative majority.
Just thinking now that a Hard Brexit could have the exact same impact that McDonnell economics would have, so either way we'd be in for a terrible time economically.
I'll be voting LD, despite my reservations about Farron.
According to theupdated Lord Ashcroft poll Plaid are now FOURTH in Ceredigion
Which tells you all you need to know about Lord Ashcroft's polling methodology. It seems to have moved on very little from last time.
YouGov yesterday had Plaid Cymru on 8% across Wales. The subsample for mid and west Wales had them on 9%. If that figure is remotely correct, Plaid Cymru must have lost quite a lot of ground in Ceredigion, given that in four of the eight seats in that region they were scraping the bottom of the barrel already. It also bodes ill for the two seats in that region they hold.
Of course, it's just a subsample and not to be taken very seriously. But it fits with the wider Welsh picture and gives limited support to Lord Ashcroft's methodology.
According to theupdated Lord Ashcroft poll Plaid are now FOURTH in Ceredigion
Which tells you all you need to know about Lord Ashcroft's polling methodology. It seems to have moved on very little from last time.
YouGov yesterday had Plaid Cymru on 8% across Wales. The subsample for mid and west Wales had them on 9%. If that figure is remotely correct, Plaid Cymru must have lost quite a lot of ground in Ceredigion, given that in four of the eight seats in that region they were scraping the bottom of the barrel already. It also bodes ill for the two seats in that region they hold.
Of course, it's just a subsample and not to be taken very seriously. But it fits with the wider Welsh picture and gives limited support to Lord Ashcroft's methodology.
could be down to the large Welsh speaking student population of Aber having left for the summer
Do you think the Aber and Lampeter students are more likely Plaid or LD voters these days? I had assumed the latter but it was 20 years since I studied there.
Lamps was > 80% English when I was there 30 years ago, and if anything might be more in years since as it had a Welsh Department back then which is long gone now. No idea about Aber.
Tories struggle to build personality cult around leader with no personality
LOL, this is true.
@SouthamObserver What do you think of all these polls? Still think the Tories are on course for a majority?
I do.
A lot of people will already have voted and there are a lot of shy Tories, IMO. In the constituency where I live - Warwick & Leamington - the only posters you can see are Labour ones. But the Tories are almost certain to increase their majority. I just think Labour voters are more willing to share their views and to be identified with their party.
You're one of the few posters on here to call EUref and Presidental Election 2016 right, so we may see a Conservative majority after all.
Just thinking now that a Hard Brexit could have the exact same impact that McDonnell economics would have, so either way we'd be in for a terrible time economically.
I'll be voting LD, despite my reservations about Farron.
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
You may be confusing correlation with causation - CT receipts could have risen as it's a smaller %, but of a much bigger profit base...
The bigger profit base coming about because more businesses established themselves and those already established made more profit in the more business friendly environment caused by the reductions in CT. The FT gets this. Just a shame the Left do not.
That argument is circular - more money from lower tax rate from more 'friendly' environment from said lower tax rate - Excel would throw a CircRef!
Bigger profits can also come from better economic circumstances generally
That's not to say that your points can't also be true, just to point out that higher tax take during a lower rate period doesn't mean the lower rate caused it/or is the only cause...
It certainly appears to be in this case. The actual increase was just under 24% but the analysts said about half of that was due to other factors leaving around 12.5% due to the decrease in CT.
Which could also be our new rate under Spreadshit Phil next week!
Or probably not...
No one says we should keep bringing it down forever. There is a point at which it is counter productive. But it does not appear that 19% is that point. Whether it should be reduced any more is debatable. Personally I would prefer a flat tax of 20% across the board but like so many of my other preferences it is never going to happen.
Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Seems unlikely at the moment ........ but say the polls are wrong by the same degree as they were last time, she'll have a majority around 90. The spreads suggest 70ish, Baxter predicts 74. Is that really such a disaster?
That could be the answer! Look at the pols and factor in how wrong they usually are
Which just takes you back to the old wisdom of they under estimate the right and over estimate the left
I'm not sure left/right is particularly relevant right now.
This is status quo / anti status quo. The polls are as likely to be underestimating labour as they are the tories.
I think it was @pulpstar who was the first to notice the comments btl on the daily mail were really anti-May after the campaign kicked in.
She's a liar, liar ooooh.
The anti status quo being a bloke who has been an MP 34 years?
If you cant see Corbyn is anti SQ you should probably visit SpecSavers
The amazing thing is that people who participated in an anti establishment kicking last June, then cheered another one on in November now seem surprised that the anti establishment mood is turning on the most pro-establishment party of all.
Ah, for some reason I thought you were in London somewhere. I thought Thornhill might have taken Watford last time but that was before the kicking turned out to be as bad as it was!
According to theupdated Lord Ashcroft poll Plaid are now FOURTH in Ceredigion
Which tells you all you need to know about Lord Ashcroft's polling methodology. It seems to have moved on very little from last time.
YouGov yesterday had Plaid Cymru on 8% across Wales. The subsample for mid and west Wales had them on 9%. If that figure is remotely correct, Plaid Cymru must have lost quite a lot of ground in Ceredigion, given that in four of the eight seats in that region they were scraping the bottom of the barrel already. It also bodes ill for the two seats in that region they hold.
Of course, it's just a subsample and not to be taken very seriously. But it fits with the wider Welsh picture and gives limited support to Lord Ashcroft's methodology.
According to theupdated Lord Ashcroft poll Plaid are now FOURTH in Ceredigion
Which tells you all you need to know about Lord Ashcroft's polling methodology. It seems to have moved on very little from last time.
YouGov yesterday had Plaid Cymru on 8% across Wales. The subsample for mid and west Wales had them on 9%. If that figure is remotely correct, Plaid Cymru must have lost quite a lot of ground in Ceredigion, given that in four of the eight seats in that region they were scraping the bottom of the barrel already. It also bodes ill for the two seats in that region they hold.
Of course, it's just a subsample and not to be taken very seriously. But it fits with the wider Welsh picture and gives limited support to Lord Ashcroft's methodology.
could be down to the large Welsh speaking student population of Aber having left for the summer
Do you think the Aber and Lampeter students are more likely Plaid or LD voters these days? I had assumed the latter but it was 20 years since I studied there.
Lamps was > 80% English when I was there 30 years ago, and if anything might be more in years since as it had a Welsh Department back then which is long gone now. No idea about Aber.
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Your second point is very sound.
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.
Given that the corporation tax cuts resulted in an increase in tax revenue, how exactly does reversing those cuts in tax give you £19.4 billion extra. It really is a magic money tree and Mason is the fungus growing on its trunk.
1.6bn from VAT on private school fees. - suddenly creates drop of 20% of those who can no longer afford - that's an additional 20% of approx 625000, with a further risk that the drop in numbers would then make some schools unviable. Admittedly those leaving would be on the lowest fees but realistically you might only get 1.4 billion and have to create 125 - 200k additional school places. 1 teacher per 30 kids that's an additional 6667 teachers at average 25k = 166,675,000. Then you would need new schools to house these children, and to expand provision. In 2012 the guardian report a school cost of 14 million. So you will have to build a staff at least 125 new schools at 14 million so a guess of 350 million. But these schools are needed straight away and cannot be built by a contractor whose chief executive has remuneration more than 20 times the tea boy.
I'm pretty sure this is fully costed in the 5 page costing document
The only criticism I would make of your figures is I think they are unduly optimistic about the resilience of private schools to such a sudden, massive hike in fees. I would expect half to two thirds of PS children to be back in mainstream within twelve months.
I wanted to show in 5 minutes googling that the Labour costing document is nonsense. I agree if Labour get in and increase taxes across the board, push a significant amount of high income people and business offshore, They could suddenly have to find much more money - it's crazy. What next taxing private health insurance out of existence!
If Cons really are worried, then back both NOM and Lab Maj on BF currently 5.9 and 25. A few hundred quid hedge on a non-Cons govt will very very slightly ease the pain that will come with a Lab govt.
For sub sample lovers Ipsos Mori has Conservatives ahead in Greater London and for Scotland SNP 35 Lab 35 Con 21 LD 7 . Labour ahead in the Midlands .
Labour best bloody take East Lothian.
What's that - Corbynism rearing its head north of the border? I blame these rapid swings on social media. Or is the subsample a load of hogwash.
Well it is SLAB's easiest target (I think) and I'm on at 10-1. Their voter contacts are down on 2015 though which is annoying.
I think you're going to have to depend on the Corbyn tide floating all boats rather than any agency of SLab.
Teeny anecdote, my brother in Edinburgh South who's voting tends to be a bit all over the shop (though he has campaigned for the SNP and voted for indy) will be voting for Mr Murray.
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.
If Cons really are worried, then back both NOM and Lab Maj on BF currently 5.9 and 25. A few hundred quid hedge on a non-Cons govt will very very slightly ease the pain that will come with a Lab govt.
My money is on the Tories, with the same thought in mind.
If Cons really are worried, then back both NOM and Lab Maj on BF currently 5.9 and 25. A few hundred quid hedge on a non-Cons govt will very very slightly ease the pain that will come with a Lab govt.
My money is on the Tories, with the same thought in mind.
Hey I'm hoping to get a nice holiday out of it, not a packet of fags...
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Your second point is very sound.
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.
Because negative campaigning has worked out so well for them so far?
And people don't suspect taxes are going up even if the Tories do win?
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Your second point is very sound.
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
He could have had the courage of his convictions and actually campaigned for Leave since we all know that was his personal preference. Then we might have seen an even bigger Leave win and there would have been no need for this election.....
..... which thinking about it would have been dumb from Corbyn's point of view. If he wins I might have to accept that he is simply a tactical genius.
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Your second point is very sound.
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.
I don't think project fear will be effective. They need to offer something positive, which has been entirely missing from their prospectus thus far.
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Your second point is very sound.
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.
Yes they do on the ones the conservatives are going to be putting up to reduce the deficit.The public like straight talking honesty .
What's the running (down the leg) total for the Conservative Bedwetters this afternoon ?
I do not know, but I have tears of laughter running down my cheeks. Reading some of this lot has been a hoot.
I wonder what will ACTUALLY happen? Roll on Thursday...
(BTW, I am expecting a Tory win, less than 50 seats)
I'm glad you're enjoying yourself
At least this GE hasn't been boring, I guess.
If 'landslide' is defined as >100, what's the word for 50-100 - a semi-landslide? I think that's the most likely. Not sure if the odds on it will offer any value, though.
Ah, for some reason I thought you were in London somewhere. I thought Thornhill might have taken Watford last time but that was before the kicking turned out to be as bad as it was!
We lived in London for about ten years prior to moving to Watford in 07. I have family in London, and as Watford is only on the outskirts of London I'm down there on a fairly regular basis. When I travelled to work I used to have to go into London as well (now I'm working from home most days due to personal reasons).
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
As @The_Apocalypse says, we are sucked in to them, despite looking at them on Day 1 of the campaign and dismissing them with a smile. But as the bloke on R5 from the Mirror said today, they are also the only game in town until June 8th.
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before. 2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Your second point is very sound.
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.
I don't think project fear will be effective. They need to offer something positive, which has been entirely missing from their prospectus thus far.
The Tories missed such an easy hit there...£250-300 million extra for the NHS by (insert met by 5 or so years down the line) i.e. it is extra money, but given inflation etc it isn't totally bonkers and unaffordable.
Brexit Bus issue nullified plus extra cash for the black hole that people want more money for.
I actually think the Lib Dem policy on this was the most sensible.
If the polls are wrong then sites such as this have got to stop paying attention to them. It doesn't help that despite pollsters getting it wrong recently, we see have headers and discussion threads centred on xyz poll says this, and treating those polls as having a significant basis in reality.
You are right, but that isn't what will happen unfortunately. We will just get threads on what the pollsters said in their post fuck up inquiry, with the ones that ones that were sitting on the chair when the music stopped championed as soothsayers
It's fair to say that there's going to be a plane crash sized enquiry among the polling industry starting this time next week.
Talking of plane crashes, sell IAG shares, BA have learned nothing from their metaphorical plane crash last weekend, and all the senior management are out to cover their own arses. Shareholder revolt coming.
Independent Directors at BA are already calling for an independent review but reports say a contractor switched off the mains power by mistake
Yep, that's about the fourth different story so far and it's clearly as much bollocks as all the previous ones. It would be impossible for any one switch to shut down a data centre - we call that a single point of failure in IT - and if for some magic reason it did then the backup data centre should have taken over.
That this didn't happen is management failure on an epic scale, I really wouldn't want to be Mr Cruz or Mr Walsh right now. The former hired the latter to oversee cost cutting and outsourcing of most IT functions.
I think the board is starting to flex its muscles probably followed by the shareholders
Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...
If 'landslide' is defined as >100, what's the word for 50-100 - a semi-landslide? I think that's the most likely. Not sure if the odds on it will offer any value, though.
I personally think any majority above 80 is a "landslide".
There haven't been that many government majorities above 80...
Comments
They should just give up
That said, there are going to be some really weird results next Thursday night. One or two from way beyond leftfield I reckon. Lab gain Camborne & Redruth anyone? Only jesting
Their voter contacts are down on 2015 though which is annoying.
If May dissolves over the weekend, it's not inconceivable that might still happen as the biggest Tory emergency recovery - ever.
Ok, it is, but I might be able to lay my bets off.
I'm pretty sure this is fully costed in the 5 page costing document
https://www.ft.com/content/8eb99046-3fb3-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2
History points to a convincing Conservative victory
Despite polls narrowing, a strong preference for May as PM suggests Tories will win
Who knows? Election night has gone from an early night to a must watch especially if the polls continue to narrow as well as leadership ratings.
What we have now is pollsters' best guess. There's no particular reason to think it favours Labour. If it's wrong, it could be wrong in either direction.
All in the distant mists of time now, back in the glory days
50-74 is 6.6 (~13/2)
75-99 is 8 (7/1)
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.131146542
A lot of people will already have voted and there are a lot of shy Tories, IMO. In the constituency where I live - Warwick & Leamington - the only posters you can see are Labour ones. But the Tories are almost certain to increase their majority. I just think Labour voters are more willing to share their views and to be identified with their party.
Bigger profits can also come from better economic circumstances generally
That's not to say that your points can't also be true, just to point out that higher tax take during a lower rate period doesn't mean the lower rate caused it/or is the only cause...
Just thinking now that a Hard Brexit could have the exact same impact that McDonnell economics would have, so either way we'd be in for a terrible time economically.
I'll be voting LD, despite my reservations about Farron.
Nurse !!!!!!!!!! ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X56Kmbgn6dE
I thought they were ahead of their time.
Think this one refers to Weak and Wobbly's ratings
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlR4Z4AZ1ho
If they failed a standard DR scenario then somebody's head somewhere is going to roll...
(fair play to you though)
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before.
2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
In reality, Orkney & Shetland is the safest LibDem seat.
That this didn't happen is management failure on an epic scale, I really wouldn't want to be Mr Cruz or Mr Walsh right now. The former hired the latter to oversee cost cutting and outsourcing of most IT functions.
Or probably not...
Last time 1995. John Major - Home and Wilson died that year and Callaghan, Heath and Thatcher.
Before that both 1923/24 when Baldwin and MacDonald were PM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cg-ic2OqXEk
https://twitter.com/aaron4donvalley
Teeny anecdote, my brother in Edinburgh South who's voting tends to be a bit all over the shop (though he has campaigned for the SNP and voted for indy) will be voting for Mr Murray.
@isam I'll give that one a look as well. Thanks.
And people don't suspect taxes are going up even if the Tories do win?
Here's a good start:
https://twitter.com/patel4witham/status/870184658075615232
..... which thinking about it would have been dumb from Corbyn's point of view. If he wins I might have to accept that he is simply a tactical genius.
Brexit Bus issue nullified plus extra cash for the black hole that people want more money for.
I actually think the Lib Dem policy on this was the most sensible.
I personally think any majority above 80 is a "landslide".
There haven't been that many government majorities above 80...
https://twitter.com/johndougherty8/status/870570063300112387
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