politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI ends a morning of bad news for the Tories with the
Options
Comments
-
That's the Freepost going out everywhere. I had the same. Royal Mail would have been given it a while back so it's not hot off the press.Scott_P said:I got this leaflet
https://twitter.com/johndougherty8/status/8705700633001123870 -
Flat Tax only works if you basically say virtually no deductions. Its 25% period.TravelJunkie said:Would a flat tax of 25% work for everyone?
All self-employed people, businesses, individuals pay a flat 25% fee on all income earned.0 -
ICM and Comres have 10%+ Tory leads it is Yougov and Mori which are rolling the dice on a Corbyn surgeFrancisUrquhart said:Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
0 -
It was suggested by many PBers many times over many months.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Tories missed such an easy hit there...£250-300 million extra for the NHS by (insert met by 5 or so years down the line) i.e. it is extra money, but given inflation etc it isn't totally bonkers and unaffordable.Monksfield said:
I don't think project fear will be effective. They need to offer something positive, which has been entirely missing from their prospectus thus far.rottenborough said:
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.another_richard said:
Your second point is very sound.SouthamObserver said:Two more Corbyn thoughts:
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before.
2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Brexit Bus issue nullified plus extra cash for the black hole that people want more money for.
I actually think the Lib Dem policy on this was the most sensible.
Its not even a lot of money compared with that pissed away on the vanity projects of Cameron and Osborne.0 -
My error.JackW said:
Should the fantasy of PM Jezza occur we will again have five living former PM'sFreggles said:Jeremy Corbyn is not going to be Minister, Prime or otherwise
Last time 1995. John Major - Home and Wilson died that year and Callaghan, Heath and Thatcher.
Before that both 1923/24 when Baldwin and MacDonald were PM.
Also 1964 - PM Wilson - Churchill, Attlee, Eden, Macmillan and Home.
0 -
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.Yorkcity said:Romney would win The US election.
@isam I'll give that one a look as well. Thanks.0 -
It's on the walk to the polling booth that the British electorate, at a GE, has usually sobered up, and voted sensibly one way or another. They stopped doing that at the EU Ref, thinking instead "fuck it". On the way to the polling booth next week, if they do say "fuck it", what is in store - not freedom or reclaiming power or a perceived riskless choice - but another politician. OK, one on the left promising all kinds of goodies, but a British politician nevertheless and the UK electorate is used to those and might see through Jeremy as a result on the day.GIN1138 said:
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...FrancisUrquhart said:Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
Or then again they might just say "fuck it".0 -
I also suggested ages ago that Corbyn was going to propose scrapping tuition fees, and he drops loads of hints. The Tories seem to be caught completely off guard by it.another_richard said:
It was suggested by many PBers many times over many months.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Tories missed such an easy hit there...£250-300 million extra for the NHS by (insert met by 5 or so years down the line) i.e. it is extra money, but given inflation etc it isn't totally bonkers and unaffordable.Monksfield said:
I don't think project fear will be effective. They need to offer something positive, which has been entirely missing from their prospectus thus far.rottenborough said:
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.another_richard said:
Your second point is very sound.SouthamObserver said:Two more Corbyn thoughts:
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before.
2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Brexit Bus issue nullified plus extra cash for the black hole that people want more money for.
I actually think the Lib Dem policy on this was the most sensible.
Its not even a lot of money compared with that pissed away on the vanity projects of Cameron and Osborne.0 -
I got that too. Bring on the Coalition of Chaos!Scott_P said:I got this leaflet
https://twitter.com/johndougherty8/status/870570063300112387
I will have a popcorn overdose if that happens.0 -
-
Prof Fisher latest prediction
Steve Fisher @StephenDFisher 5m5 minutes ago
More
Update on my Combined Forecast with @RosieShorrocks and @_JohnKenny:
Conservative majority of 710 -
Even a Tory win of 10%, I would say it is pretty big f##k up by Team May. I didn't think 25% was realistic, but what they are up against regardless of what happens they have managed to allow Corbynism to become legitimized. Even most of the PLP don't think it should be.HYUFD said:
ICM and Comres have 10%+ Tory leads it is Yougov and Mori which are rolling the dice on a Corbyn surgeFrancisUrquhart said:Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
Blair not only won he redefined the centre ground for 15+ years (and even now on many issues you can't go right of lots of stuff and hope to win). May had the opportunity to do the same and ensure that nobody could go left of it.0 -
It's certainly been interesting to see the same people's different attitudes to Project Fear in 2014, 2016 and now.Monksfield said:
I don't think project fear will be effective. They need to offer something positive, which has been entirely missing from their prospectus thus far.rottenborough said:
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.another_richard said:
Your second point is very sound.SouthamObserver said:Two more Corbyn thoughts:
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before.
2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!0 -
I predicted 44/35 at the startYorkcity said:
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.Yorkcity said:Romney would win The US election.
@isam I'll give that one a look as well. Thanks.
35 better than Ed0 -
-
Mason been reading some of the dregs on PB?
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3710186/jeremy-corbyn-ally-paul-mason-slammed-after-he-suggests-theresa-may-could-be-avoiding-media-appearances-because-shes-unwell/0 -
Some of us said back in 2010 that it would leave the Conservatives and LibDems permanently vulnerable among young voters.FrancisUrquhart said:
I also suggested ages ago that Corbyn was going to propose scrapping tuition fees, and he drops loads of hints. The Tories seem to be caught completely off guard by it.another_richard said:
It was suggested by many PBers many times over many months.FrancisUrquhart said:
The Tories missed such an easy hit there...£250-300 million extra for the NHS by (insert met by 5 or so years down the line) i.e. it is extra money, but given inflation etc it isn't totally bonkers and unaffordable.Monksfield said:
I don't think project fear will be effective. They need to offer something positive, which has been entirely missing from their prospectus thus far.rottenborough said:
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.another_richard said:
Your second point is very sound.SouthamObserver said:Two more Corbyn thoughts:
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before.
2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Brexit Bus issue nullified plus extra cash for the black hole that people want more money for.
I actually think the Lib Dem policy on this was the most sensible.
Its not even a lot of money compared with that pissed away on the vanity projects of Cameron and Osborne.
£30k is such a huge amount that it was inevitable someone use it as a vote winner.0 -
Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park0 -
Not for long though. Tony will be first against the wall when the revolution comes.JackW said:
Should the fantasy of PM Jezza occur we will again have five living former PM'sFreggles said:Jeremy Corbyn is not going to be Minister, Prime or otherwise
Last time 1995. John Major - Home and Wilson died that year and Callaghan, Heath and Thatcher.
Before that both 1923/24 when Baldwin and MacDonald were PM.
And I suspect that volunteers from the army for that duty will be abundant.0 -
Definitely. The immediate cost (compensation to passengers, fuel and overtime flying empty planes around etc) is now estimated at £150m, plus the share price drop and a serious amount of goodwill when it's so clear that the management are talking sh!t about what happened.HYUFD said:
I think the board is starting to flex its muscles probably followed by the shareholdersSandpit said:
Yep, that's about the fourth different story so far and it's clearly as much bollocks as all the previous ones. It would be impossible for any one switch to shut down a data centre - we call that a single point of failure in IT - and if for some magic reason it did then the backup data centre should have taken over.HYUFD said:
Independent Directors at BA are already calling for an independent review but reports say a contractor switched off the mains power by mistakeSandpit said:
It's fair to say that there's going to be a plane crash sized enquiry among the polling industry starting this time next week.isam said:
You are right, but that isn't what will happen unfortunately. We will just get threads on what the pollsters said in their post fuck up inquiry, with the ones that ones that were sitting on the chair when the music stopped championed as soothsayersThe_Apocalypse said:
If the polls are wrong then sites such as this have got to stop paying attention to them. It doesn't help that despite pollsters getting it wrong recently, we see have headers and discussion threads centred on xyz poll says this, and treating those polls as having a significant basis in reality.Black_Rook said:
.The_Apocalypse said:
Talking of plane crashes, sell IAG shares, BA have learned nothing from their metaphorical plane crash last weekend, and all the senior management are out to cover their own arses. Shareholder revolt coming.
That this didn't happen is management failure on an epic scale, I really wouldn't want to be Mr Cruz or Mr Walsh right now. The former hired the latter to oversee cost cutting and outsourcing of most IT functions.
@Beverley_C has also made some good comments about this, but basically if you've well designed and run data centres (note the plural) it's pretty much impossible for services to be so far downgraded for so long. Good high availability and disaster recovery planning and execution is hard. One thing for sure is that no contractor (even the cleaner) goes near the building without a thorough briefing and a company chaperone.0 -
0
-
Statement to be issued by the polling companies on June 10th .
In 2015 in order to correct for errors in our GE polling , All polling companies made adjustments to their methodology . It appears that the 2015 GE was a one off and without those adjustments we would not have overstated the Conservative vote share in 2017 and would have correctly forecast the Labour victory on Thursday .
Rest assured we strive to make our polling as accurate as possible and will be returning to our pre 2015 methodology .0 -
Is anyone on the ground seeing this though?MarkSenior said:Statement to be issued by the polling companies on June 10th .
In 2015 in order to correct for errors in our GE polling , All polling companies made adjustments to their methodology . It appears that the 2015 GE was a one off and without those adjustments we would not have overstated the Conservative vote share in 2017 and would have correctly forecast the Labour victory on Thursday .
Rest assured we strive to make our polling as accurate as possible and will be returning to our pre 2015 methodology .0 -
Pulpstar said:
quantitative easing is the real term for money tree.foxinsoxuk said:Even Matt is coming round to the Jezziah:
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/870688490807107584
Its ok to do quantitative easing for banks but not anyone else.0 -
Or perhaps they'll admit that they've just been asking Dianne Abbott how she was going to vote 2,000 times, and that she's finally getting the hang of volunteering Corbyns's name. I can't explain the polls otherwise.MarkSenior said:Statement to be issued by the polling companies on June 10th .
In 2015 in order to correct for errors in our GE polling , All polling companies made adjustments to their methodology . It appears that the 2015 GE was a one off and without those adjustments we would not have overstated the Conservative vote share in 2017 and would have correctly forecast the Labour victory on Thursday .
Rest assured we strive to make our polling as accurate as possible and will be returning to our pre 2015 methodology .0 -
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?HYUFD said:
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in ScotlandBlack_Rook said:
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?SouthamObserver said:Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.0 -
I think NickPalmer deserves recognition for standing by Jezza throughout, and being mercilessly mocked for it..Yorkcity said:
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.Yorkcity said:Romney would win The US election.
@isam I'll give that one a look as well. Thanks.0 -
Good PostTOPPING said:
It's on the walk to the polling booth that the British electorate, at a GE, has usually sobered up, and voted sensibly one way or another. They stopped doing that at the EU Ref, thinking instead "fuck it". On the way to the polling booth next week, if they do say "fuck it", what is in store - not freedom or reclaiming power or a perceived riskless choice - but another politician. OK, one on the left promising all kinds of goodies, but a British politician nevertheless and the UK electorate is used to those and might see through Jeremy as a result on the day.GIN1138 said:
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...FrancisUrquhart said:Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
Or then again they might just say "fuck it".
Many may well think they have nothing to lose.
Tories only offering more of the same. Austerity drop in living standards and now they are coming for your house too.
Some will like the Status Quo as they perceive it in some way "safer".0 -
Depends what we mean by better - seats or voteshare. Though if he does better than Miliband in either, I agree that no one on this site foresaw it! I don't think this is a blog of experts - just people interested in politics really!Yorkcity said:
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.Yorkcity said:Romney would win The US election.
@isam I'll give that one a look as well. Thanks.0 -
My apologies Bigjjohnowls.bigjohnowls said:
I predicted 44/35 at the startYorkcity said:
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.Yorkcity said:Romney would win The US election.
@isam I'll give that one a look as well. Thanks.
35 better than Ed0 -
Phew that's a relief... For a minute there I thought you'd gone weak and wobbly. Would've been all down the John O (and Ave It) to keep PB Tories from having a complete and total breakdown...JackW said:
0 -
Interesting TM's tweet about her Don Valley visit cuts TP out of the picture - so it can't count as 'local spend'?
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/8706692439305994240 -
For standing by a terrorist sympathizer who is happy to associate with marxists, antisemites and holocaust deniers. Forgive me if I don't...foxinsoxuk said:
I think NickPalmer deserves recognition for standing by Jezza throughout, and being mercilessly mocked for it..Yorkcity said:
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.Yorkcity said:Romney would win The US election.
@isam I'll give that one a look as well. Thanks.
The people who I feel sorry for are the likes of SO. A sensible left of centre chap who has seen his party taken over by the Maomentum rabble and now with the way the GE campaign has gone they won't be able to get rid of him regardless of the final result.0 -
If any of us were significantly good at foreseeing the future we wouldn't be here.The_Apocalypse said:
Depends what we mean by better - seats or voteshare. Though if he does better than Miliband in either, I agree that no one on this site foresaw it! I don't think this is a blog of experts - just people interested in politics really!Yorkcity said:
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.Yorkcity said:Romney would win The US election.
@isam I'll give that one a look as well. Thanks.0 -
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:TravelJunkie said:Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
Twickenham - 70% chance LD
Kingston - 45%
Richmond Park - 25%
Carshalton - 20%
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.0 -
ICM and Comres are now a week out of date . They may well not have 10% leads now .HYUFD said:
ICM and Comres have 10%+ Tory leads it is Yougov and Mori which are rolling the dice on a Corbyn surgeFrancisUrquhart said:Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
0 -
Richmond Park will be technically also a gain rather than a hold - with reference to the result at the last GE in 2015.TravelJunkie said:Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park0 -
But they were taken at the same time as the YouGov poll showing a very tight lead.MarkSenior said:
ICM and Comres are now a week out of date . They may well not have 10% leads now .HYUFD said:
ICM and Comres have 10%+ Tory leads it is Yougov and Mori which are rolling the dice on a Corbyn surgeFrancisUrquhart said:Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
0 -
It's been clear for 15 years that Scotland has been moving politically in a different direction to the rest of the UK. it's only a matter of time before the pressure becomes large enough to cause a clean break (probably after Brexit).Black_Rook said:
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?HYUFD said:
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in ScotlandBlack_Rook said:
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?SouthamObserver said:Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.0 -
After all that moaning from my Corbynista friends that the Guardian were apart of the right wing press.....AlastairMeeks said:0 -
I'm making one nailed on prediction. It's gonna be narky as hell on here from 10 pm Thursday0
-
Corbyn himself hates the Graudian....That Vice documentary he was more angry at some of their journos than the right wing press.The_Apocalypse said:
After all that moaning from my Corbynista friends that the Guardian were apart of the right wing press.....AlastairMeeks said:0 -
I've been out delivering this afternoon - so is Amber Rudd the Chancellor now?foxinsoxuk said:Even Matt is coming round to the Jezziah:
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/870688490807107584
(600 "newspapers" delivered - in an area of Torbay that has a Tory councillor - but not elected so much from the area where I was. Total signs of political excitement: one Labour poster. I'm perhaps being generous there - it may just have been the candidates address was propped up against the hall window when it arrived. 0 Tory (unsurprising) and (much more surprisingly) 0 LibDems.)0 -
I value the Union, perhaps because my genes include all 4 countries.Black_Rook said:
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?HYUFD said:
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in ScotlandBlack_Rook said:
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?SouthamObserver said:Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
It is much more likely to survive with a broader range of MPs, and a Labour government. Corbyn said he would win in Scotland. Maybe he is right. I have punted on a few SNP/SLAB seats on this.-1 -
If they do they'll probably find a way of making them fitMarkSenior said:
ICM and Comres are now a week out of date . They may well not have 10% leads now .HYUFD said:
ICM and Comres have 10%+ Tory leads it is Yougov and Mori which are rolling the dice on a Corbyn surgeFrancisUrquhart said:Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
0 -
I'm visiting a friend in London. They have received a letter off Mr. Smithson of political betting. The letter explains that Conservative voters should vote lib dem to stop Labour as the Conservatives are likely to come third. The constituency is bermondsey and Old Southwark.
Mr. Smithson, she says she will consider it.0 -
Lets see what ComRes and ICM say this weekend I go for 10 and 10 myself anything in single figures and the landslide is cancelled.RobD said:
But they were taken at the same time as the YouGov poll showing a very tight lead.MarkSenior said:
ICM and Comres are now a week out of date . They may well not have 10% leads now .HYUFD said:
ICM and Comres have 10%+ Tory leads it is Yougov and Mori which are rolling the dice on a Corbyn surgeFrancisUrquhart said:Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
Still 95% certain TMICIPM though0 -
Possibly however many on here are members of political parties with greater knowledge you would imagine than the general public.The_Apocalypse said:
Depends what we mean by better - seats or voteshare. Though if he does better than Miliband in either, I agree that no one on this site foresaw it! I don't think this is a blog of experts - just people interested in politics really!Yorkcity said:
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.Yorkcity said:Romney would win The US election.
@isam I'll give that one a look as well. Thanks.0 -
Well quite. Although to be fair, Lab could have elected a King Charles Spaniel as leader and Nick would have told us why its views were the very embodiment of all he had really believed these past 20 years.FrancisUrquhart said:
For standing by a terrorist sympathizer who is happy to associate with marxists, antisemites and holocaust deniers. Forgive me if I don't...foxinsoxuk said:
I think NickPalmer deserves recognition for standing by Jezza throughout, and being mercilessly mocked for it..Yorkcity said:
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.Yorkcity said:Romney would win The US election.
@isam I'll give that one a look as well. Thanks.
The people who I feel sorry for are the likes of SO. A sensible left of centre chap who has seen his party taken over by the Maomentum rabble and now with the way the GE campaign has gone they won't be able to get rid of him regardless of the final result.
As for SO (Happy Birthday) and the other sensible Lab types, it must seem to them that they are in a different reality wherein Jezza has no baggage, adores the UK and always has done, and, as your favourite uncle, is about to become PM where no other Lab view exists.0 -
Placards and posters seem to decline every GE....One funny anecdote, when I visited Bath the other week, somebody had a Lib Dem placard loud and proud in their front garden...for the original candidate (who isn't standing) not the replacement.MarqueeMark said:
I've been out delivering this afternoon - so is Amber Rudd the Chancellor now?foxinsoxuk said:Even Matt is coming round to the Jezziah:
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/870688490807107584
(600 "newspapers" delivered - in an area of Torbay that has a Tory councillor - but not elected so much from the area where I was. Total signs of political excitement: one Labour poster. I'm perhaps being generous there - it may just have been the candidates address was propped up against the hall window when it arrived. 0 Tory (unsurprising) and (much more surprisingly) 0 LibDems.)0 -
I think this election may well show a reversal of that historic drift.spudgfsh said:
It's been clear for 15 years that Scotland has been moving politically in a different direction to the rest of the UK. it's only a matter of time before the pressure becomes large enough to cause a clean break (probably after Brexit).Black_Rook said:
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?HYUFD said:
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in ScotlandBlack_Rook said:
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?SouthamObserver said:Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.0 -
Labour prospective MPs restraint has been admirable. They appear to have all caught any port in a stormitis from Thornberry.0
-
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)rcs1000 said:
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:TravelJunkie said:Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
Twickenham - 70% chance LD
Kingston - 45%
Richmond Park - 25%
Carshalton - 20%
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.0 -
Labour Party defending millionaires at the expense of working people again, I see...bigjohnowls said:
Good PostTOPPING said:
It's on the walk to the polling booth that the British electorate, at a GE, has usually sobered up, and voted sensibly one way or another. They stopped doing that at the EU Ref, thinking instead "fuck it". On the way to the polling booth next week, if they do say "fuck it", what is in store - not freedom or reclaiming power or a perceived riskless choice - but another politician. OK, one on the left promising all kinds of goodies, but a British politician nevertheless and the UK electorate is used to those and might see through Jeremy as a result on the day.GIN1138 said:
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...FrancisUrquhart said:Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
Or then again they might just say "fuck it".
Many may well think they have nothing to lose.
Tories only offering more of the same. Austerity drop in living standards and now they are coming for your house too.
Some will like the Status Quo as they perceive it in some way "safer".0 -
But would that be a change in the tide or a bit of temporary disturbance cause by events ?foxinsoxuk said:
I think this election may well show a reversal of that historic drift.spudgfsh said:
It's been clear for 15 years that Scotland has been moving politically in a different direction to the rest of the UK. it's only a matter of time before the pressure becomes large enough to cause a clean break (probably after Brexit).Black_Rook said:
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?HYUFD said:
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in ScotlandBlack_Rook said:
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?SouthamObserver said:Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
After ten years in power the SNP should now be on the down slope and that may be hastened by Sturgeon and Davidson engaging in MAD.0 -
Well done Ireland.0
-
Mr foxinsoxuk, (I think) you've said previously that you disagree with Corbyn's economics. In government, do you think they'd actually get to implement some of this stuff?foxinsoxuk said:
I value the Union, perhaps because my genes include all 4 countries.Black_Rook said:
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?HYUFD said:
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in ScotlandBlack_Rook said:
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?SouthamObserver said:Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
It is much more likely to survive with a broader range of MPs, and a Labour government. Corbyn said he would win in Scotland. Maybe he is right. I have punted on a few SNP/SLAB seats on this.0 -
I've lost faith. I think it very likely that the Union is held together by bribery, and if the Scots weren't hosed down with money (which they don't deserve on anything like the scale it is provided: unlike Wales and Northern Ireland, Scotland is not significantly worse off than the UK average) then they'd probably already have voted to leave in 2014.foxinsoxuk said:
I value the Union, perhaps because my genes include all 4 countries.Black_Rook said:
Of what value to voters in England - beyond a sentimental attachment to the portion of the Scottish population that still genuinely values the Union, which may or may not be as large as the proportion of the Scottish population that viscerally hates the English - is the continuation of the Union with Scotland?HYUFD said:
The Tories will be tied in to her Brexit strategy regardless whoever takes over and no true Tory would ever countenance the breakup of the country I would rather Corbyn won a landslide than Yes win an indyref2 and indeed the biggest swing to the Tories next week will be in ScotlandBlack_Rook said:
If the Tories win a comfortable victory, then why should they move rapidly to get rid of her?SouthamObserver said:Whatever happens now, May will not be PM this time next year, will she?
Leave aside for a minute the fact that everyone loves a winner, and also that many new Tory MPs will owe their jobs to her Unite the Right Brexit approach. The best strategy would be to use her as a lightning rod for all the negative consequences of Brexit, allow her to be burnt to a crisp, and then throw the smoking corpse down a mine shaft and install a fresh leader in good time for 2022.
Moreover, if the (English) Tories are *really* smart then they'll get thinking about how to persuade Scotland to piss off between now and then, and then pin the breakup of the Union on her as well.
It is much more likely to survive with a broader range of MPs, and a Labour government. Corbyn said he would win in Scotland. Maybe he is right. I have punted on a few SNP/SLAB seats on this.
If consigning the UK to a skip meant a permanent end to Scottish Leftists (SNP or Scottish Labour = same difference) emptying the Treasury, to say nothing of tipping the political balance of the rest of the country rightwards, then it'd be well worth it. Especially given that it would also mean a permanent end to all future Alex Salmonds and Gordon Browns coming South to preach and to meddle.0 -
That makes perfect sense. Heathrow is also a bigger issue in Twickenham than in Richmond Park.TravelJunkie said:
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)rcs1000 said:
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:TravelJunkie said:Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
Twickenham - 70% chance LD
Kingston - 45%
Richmond Park - 25%
Carshalton - 20%
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.0 -
Worth noting also that both of the seat-by-seat pollster models have the LDs doing well in SW London, including in C&W. Given that their entire campaign has been written by SW London people for SW London people, perhaps this isn't so surprising? The disaster that is the West Country is the corresponding downside.TravelJunkie said:
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)rcs1000 said:
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:TravelJunkie said:Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
Twickenham - 70% chance LD
Kingston - 45%
Richmond Park - 25%
Carshalton - 20%
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.0 -
Leo Varadkar wins, Farron promises to cut off diplomatic relations with Ireland after advice from God.0
-
For those gleefully pointing at the closing gap in leader's ratings:
Labour has gained considerably in polls in recent weeks. But do voters really change preferences during a campaign? Will Jennings and Christopher Wlezien explain the importance of using a fundamentals-based approach in predicting UK elections. They find that, despite the turnaround in fortunes in this year’s campaign, the Conservatives may still be looking at a 9-point lead....
..... we look at these estimates 90 days out, 30 days out, and just 7 days out. These reveal that the expected vote share of the Conservatives peaked just after the election was called, but has fallen back since. The model still suggests a substantial 43.3% of the vote on Election Day. More interestingly, Labour has gained considerably in our estimates, rising from a predicted 28.5% of the vote 90 days out to 34.7% a week before the election. Despite this considerable turnaround in fortunes, this fundamentals-based approach suggests around a 9-point lead for the Conservatives – more than sufficient to deliver a comfortable majority for Theresa May.
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-polls-the-fundamentals-and-ge2017/0 -
Leo Varadkar confirmed as PM Elect.
How the Republic of Ireland has changed ....0 -
South Twickenham is the most significant of those.TravelJunkie said:
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)rcs1000 said:
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:TravelJunkie said:Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
Twickenham - 70% chance LD
Kingston - 45%
Richmond Park - 25%
Carshalton - 20%
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Twickenham
The other two should be going yellow even if it is close.0 -
It was dumb the first time round and it is dumb this time. The point being in both cases it was primarily the same party doing it both times. I suspect they will just about get away with it this time but they really didn't learn any lessons from the referendum.Theuniondivvie said:
It's certainly been interesting to see the same people's different attitudes to Project Fear in 2014, 2016 and now.Monksfield said:
I don't think project fear will be effective. They need to offer something positive, which has been entirely missing from their prospectus thus far.rottenborough said:
Tories need to talk about tax, tax, tax from now until Thursday.another_richard said:
Your second point is very sound.SouthamObserver said:Two more Corbyn thoughts:
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before.
2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!0 -
what has Ireland done?TOPPING said:Well done Ireland.
0 -
Same. It's bloody brilliant!TOPPING said:Well done Ireland.
0 -
C&W is a very different seat to Richmond Park.IanB2 said:
Worth noting also that both of the seat-by-seat pollster models have the LDs doing well in SW London, including in C&W. Given that their entire campaign has been written by SW London people for SW London people, perhaps this isn't so surprising? The disaster that is the West Country is the corresponding downside.TravelJunkie said:
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)rcs1000 said:
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:TravelJunkie said:Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
Twickenham - 70% chance LD
Kingston - 45%
Richmond Park - 25%
Carshalton - 20%
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.0 -
They'll get along just fine with the SNP.....Mortimer said:
Labour Party defending millionaires at the expense of working people again, I see...bigjohnowls said:
Good PostTOPPING said:
It's on the walk to the polling booth that the British electorate, at a GE, has usually sobered up, and voted sensibly one way or another. They stopped doing that at the EU Ref, thinking instead "fuck it". On the way to the polling booth next week, if they do say "fuck it", what is in store - not freedom or reclaiming power or a perceived riskless choice - but another politician. OK, one on the left promising all kinds of goodies, but a British politician nevertheless and the UK electorate is used to those and might see through Jeremy as a result on the day.GIN1138 said:
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...FrancisUrquhart said:Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
Or then again they might just say "fuck it".
Many may well think they have nothing to lose.
Tories only offering more of the same. Austerity drop in living standards and now they are coming for your house too.
Some will like the Status Quo as they perceive it in some way "safer".0 -
Killed two birds with one stone.SquareRoot said:
what has Ireland done?TOPPING said:Well done Ireland.
0 -
Fulwell and Teddington are marginal wards , South Twickenham a safe Conservative ward .TravelJunkie said:
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)rcs1000 said:
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:TravelJunkie said:Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
Twickenham - 70% chance LD
Kingston - 45%
Richmond Park - 25%
Carshalton - 20%
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.0 -
I've been delivering that for a couple of weeks now.foxinsoxuk said:
I got that too. Bring on the Coalition of Chaos!Scott_P said:I got this leaflet
https://twitter.com/johndougherty8/status/870570063300112387
I will have a popcorn overdose if that happens.0 -
SouthamObserver said:
Two more Corbyn thoughts:
1. The attacks on him in this weekend's right wing press are going to be something to behold. More savage than anything we have ever seen before.
2. The way he has campaigned over the last month proves categorically he had no intetest at all in Remain winning the referendum. He won it for you, Leavers!
Point 2 is one that Farron should be making day in, day out....0 -
Sure, he does get abuse for it, but he was nearly alone here in predicting Jezza would do well, though there are others like BJO.FrancisUrquhart said:
For standing by a terrorist sympathizer who is happy to associate with marxists, antisemites and holocaust deniers. Forgive me if I don't...foxinsoxuk said:
I think NickPalmer deserves recognition for standing by Jezza throughout, and being mercilessly mocked for it..Yorkcity said:
If Corbyn does even better than Milliband , I can not think of one poster on here who even suggested it might be a possibility.If it does come to pass I have been reading this blog of so called experts and they no jack shit in reality of what is really happening.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, but that was four years ago - given the anti-establishment mood now, it's important to look at who foresaw Trump and Brexit. JackW prior to the last year ago, apparently called everything right, but didn't foresee either Brexit or Trump. JohnO foresaw Brexit, but not Trump.Yorkcity said:Romney would win The US election.
@isam I'll give that one a look as well. Thanks.
The people who I feel sorry for are the likes of SO. A sensible left of centre chap who has seen his party taken over by the Maomentum rabble and now with the way the GE campaign has gone they won't be able to get rid of him regardless of the final result.0 -
More importantly, what's the news from Strawberry Hill, where I used to live0
-
That's been the story from the start. 'Strong and Stable Government vs Coalition of Chaos' I'm surprised you haven't heard that before. Just shows, you can't say it enough.Leedsprinter said:
I've been delivering that for a couple of weeks now.foxinsoxuk said:
I got that too. Bring on the Coalition of Chaos!Scott_P said:I got this leaflet
https://twitter.com/johndougherty8/status/870570063300112387
I will have a popcorn overdose if that happens.0 -
Any new thoughts on Hampstead and Kilburn ?rcs1000 said:
C&W is a very different seat to Richmond Park.IanB2 said:
Worth noting also that both of the seat-by-seat pollster models have the LDs doing well in SW London, including in C&W. Given that their entire campaign has been written by SW London people for SW London people, perhaps this isn't so surprising? The disaster that is the West Country is the corresponding downside.TravelJunkie said:
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)rcs1000 said:
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:TravelJunkie said:Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
Twickenham - 70% chance LD
Kingston - 45%
Richmond Park - 25%
Carshalton - 20%
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.
0 -
-
Yeh I bet millionaire are flocking to Labour and worse off workers are drifting further away!!Mortimer said:
Labour Party defending millionaires at the expense of working people again, I see...bigjohnowls said:
Good PostTOPPING said:
It's on the walk to the polling booth that the British electorate, at a GE, has usually sobered up, and voted sensibly one way or another. They stopped doing that at the EU Ref, thinking instead "fuck it". On the way to the polling booth next week, if they do say "fuck it", what is in store - not freedom or reclaiming power or a perceived riskless choice - but another politician. OK, one on the left promising all kinds of goodies, but a British politician nevertheless and the UK electorate is used to those and might see through Jeremy as a result on the day.GIN1138 said:
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...FrancisUrquhart said:Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
Or then again they might just say "fuck it".
Many may well think they have nothing to lose.
Tories only offering more of the same. Austerity drop in living standards and now they are coming for your house too.
Some will like the Status Quo as they perceive it in some way "safer".
Corbyn should really have said on the side of the few not the many really.
Meanwhile In the real world a party Manifesto on the side of the many and against the excesses of Capitalism is gaining support.
Get over it0 -
That's a great result. It shows how much the power of the Church - at least in its old form - is waning in IrelandJackW said:Leo Varadkar confirmed as PM Elect.
How the Republic of Ireland has changed ....0 -
Lord help us ....dyedwoolie said:Leo Varadkar wins, Farron promises to cut off diplomatic relations with Ireland after advice from God.
I was surprised that Farron didn't have in the LibDem manifesto some increases in sin taxes .... booze and fags .... so to speak ....
0 -
That's genuinely a surprise, I'd thought they'd sit on the fence or recommend an anti-Tory vote as opposed to endorsing Corbyn.AlastairMeeks said:
So the red team has the Grauniad and the Mirror, with every other paper coming out for the Tories this weekend?0 -
Lib Dems are 4/5 under 11.5; 10/11 more.
Question is do lib dems have 15 realistic seats to make the 10/11 bet value.0 -
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/870692604945367046tlg86 said:
Killed two birds with one stone.SquareRoot said:
what has Ireland done?TOPPING said:Well done Ireland.
Also Indo-Irish - Indian born father, Irish born mother.0 -
The Conservatives appear to be putting quite a bit of effort into Nottingham South.
Which considering they need an 8% swing and that its very student heavy is somewhat surprising.
0 -
Keep saying it. It keeps shifting votes to the opposition.Leedsprinter said:
That's been the story from the start. 'Strong and Stable Government vs Coalition of Chaos' I'm surprised you haven't heard that before. Just shows, you can't say it enough.Leedsprinter said:
I've been delivering that for a couple of weeks now.foxinsoxuk said:
I got that too. Bring on the Coalition of Chaos!Scott_P said:I got this leaflet
https://twitter.com/johndougherty8/status/870570063300112387
I will have a popcorn overdose if that happens.0 -
Never mind May - he had Priti with him yesterday!another_richard said:Was May really campaigning with TP today !?!?!
https://twitter.com/aaron4donvalley0 -
Good that LD activists are going to where they are told.MarqueeMark said:
I've been out delivering this afternoon - so is Amber Rudd the Chancellor now?foxinsoxuk said:Even Matt is coming round to the Jezziah:
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/870688490807107584
(600 "newspapers" delivered - in an area of Torbay that has a Tory councillor - but not elected so much from the area where I was. Total signs of political excitement: one Labour poster. I'm perhaps being generous there - it may just have been the candidates address was propped up against the hall window when it arrived. 0 Tory (unsurprising) and (much more surprisingly) 0 LibDems.)
0 -
Sri Lankan father, I think.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/870692604945367046tlg86 said:
Killed two birds with one stone.SquareRoot said:
what has Ireland done?TOPPING said:Well done Ireland.
Also Indo-Irish - Indian born father, Irish born mother.0 -
That'd be a yes you're defending millionaires, then?bigjohnowls said:
Yeh I bet millionaire are flocking to Labour and worse off workers are drifting further away!!Mortimer said:
Labour Party defending millionaires at the expense of working people again, I see...bigjohnowls said:
Good PostTOPPING said:
It's on the walk to the polling booth that the British electorate, at a GE, has usually sobered up, and voted sensibly one way or another. They stopped doing that at the EU Ref, thinking instead "fuck it". On the way to the polling booth next week, if they do say "fuck it", what is in store - not freedom or reclaiming power or a perceived riskless choice - but another politician. OK, one on the left promising all kinds of goodies, but a British politician nevertheless and the UK electorate is used to those and might see through Jeremy as a result on the day.GIN1138 said:
On past performance you'd tend to favour the later...FrancisUrquhart said:Well come this time next week we will have witnessed the greatest f##k-up in modern British GE history....just what f##k up will it be....that Kim Jong May has managed to lose against a terrorist sympathizer and his band of marxists or the polling companies need to just shut down.
Or then again they might just say "fuck it".
Many may well think they have nothing to lose.
Tories only offering more of the same. Austerity drop in living standards and now they are coming for your house too.
Some will like the Status Quo as they perceive it in some way "safer".
Corbyn should really have said on the side of the few not the many really.
Meanwhile In the real world a party Manifesto on the side of the many and against the excesses of Capitalism is gaining support.
Get over it0 -
The i??Sandpit said:
That's genuinely a surprise, I'd thought they'd sit on the fence or recommend an anti-Tory vote as opposed to endorsing Corbyn.AlastairMeeks said:
So the red team has the Grauniad and the Mirror, with every other paper coming out for the Tories this weekend?0 -
Have they still not clocked yet that a new runway north of the existing field will mean a lot fewer planes over Twickenham?rcs1000 said:
That makes perfect sense. Heathrow is also a bigger issue in Twickenham than in Richmond Park.TravelJunkie said:
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)rcs1000 said:
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:TravelJunkie said:Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
Twickenham - 70% chance LD
Kingston - 45%
Richmond Park - 25%
Carshalton - 20%
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.0 -
Tories worldwide championing the minorities...CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/870692604945367046tlg86 said:
Killed two birds with one stone.SquareRoot said:
what has Ireland done?TOPPING said:Well done Ireland.
Also Indo-Irish - Indian born father, Irish born mother.
0 -
I would have my central point at 10, but with 11 only slightly less likely. Above 11, it gets much harder.TravelJunkie said:Lib Dems are 4/5 under 11.5; 10/11 more.
Question is do lib dems have 15 realistic seats to make the 10/11 bet value.0 -
Wiki (I know....)foxinsoxuk said:
Sri Lankan father, I think.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/870692604945367046tlg86 said:
Killed two birds with one stone.SquareRoot said:
what has Ireland done?TOPPING said:Well done Ireland.
Also Indo-Irish - Indian born father, Irish born mother.
His Mumbai-born Maharashtrian father had moved to England as a doctor in the 1960s.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Varadkar#Personal_life0 -
Number of seats that the LibDems could ever hope to win in SW London vs same in the West Country would suggest a different strategy.IanB2 said:
Worth noting also that both of the seat-by-seat pollster models have the LDs doing well in SW London, including in C&W. Given that their entire campaign has been written by SW London people for SW London people, perhaps this isn't so surprising? The disaster that is the West Country is the corresponding downside.TravelJunkie said:
I don't know if this makes any sense, but the canvass returns show lib dems beating tories in Fulwell, Teddington and South Twickenham. (wards in twickenham)rcs1000 said:
That would be a staggeringly good result for the LDs. My percentage likelihoods would be:TravelJunkie said:Just spoke to a very friend for an hour about stuff and the election.
She based in Richmond, committed liberal democrat. She thinks based on canvass returns; they are doing better in Twickenham, Richmond Park, Kingston, Carshalton but really bad in Sutton, Southwark and Wood Green.
She expects 2 gains in London - Twickenham + Kingston; holds in Carshalton and Richmond Park
Twickenham - 70% chance LD
Kingston - 45%
Richmond Park - 25%
Carshalton - 20%
I reckon that on a good day, they'll win two, but my central scenario would be one (Twickenham).
Ironic, really, given that Vince is - alongside Tim Farron - the LibDem I have least time for.0
Defo vote Lib Dem there.
This discussion has been closed.