politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos MORI ends a morning of bad news for the Tories with the
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Apocalypse - If Corbyn gets in you will be paying more in tax. Look what happened in France. Hollande increased income tax on the richest and they all moved to London and belgium. The top ten percent are the ones who can move to avoid, or pay for accountants to avoid.
That's why corbynomics is so dangerous. To be fair to the Tories they have followed my mantra with regards to corporation tax. I think the government should set any level of taxation at a level where it produces the maximum to the exchequer. Hence corporation tax rates down but amounts collected up.
The other thing I would say is that people have vastly different expectations today compared to when I grew up in the 80s. We didn't go on holiday every year, never mind more than once. We never ate out of the house except for birthdays some of the time. I remember going to school with shoes on with holes in because we didn't have the money for new shoes. Saying that my mum always turned me out well with what we had. I amused my wife the other day because I have never had a slush puppy because we wouldn't have had money for it when I was growing up, she was gobsmacked .0 -
If you are in residential care you are now £77k better off and of course there will now be cap post u turn. I also somehow doubt increasing National Insurance to pay for social care would be a vote winner either. The Tories have clearly lost votes over this but there are no votes to be gained if you are going to properly fund social careMaxPB said:
Indeed, the last government introduced the IHT allowance homes, this one wants to take all but £100k worth of equity off you. The government has the giant fiscal tool of state pensions to fund old age care, they are just too stupid to use it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I supported the principle behind the social care policy, my issues were it was poorly communicated and most of all, you can't overturn 40 years of Tory orthodoxy like that.Slackbladder said:That's true and not true. I think people supported the 'idea' of tackling the need for increased support for social care. It was facing up to the funding needed.
But it was just done in a rubbish way and communicated awfully.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has been pushing that we should become a home owning democracy that you can leave tax free to your kids if you're not seriously wealthy.
You know it was poorly presented because even Tim flipping Farron mocked the plan in the debate on Wednesday.0 -
Davis is very good. But not everything is about Europe contrary to the views of far too many Tories.Patrick said:
I like David Davis. In hindsight the party made the wrong decision all those years ago to prefer Dave the Europhile over him. He's amazingly solid. Not exciting but very safe.TravelJunkie said:If my life was on the line to predict the right result, I would likely say tory win with a majority of around 80-100 seats than a hung parliament.
I would be very, very shocked with a hung parliament. I think the biggest concern is how long can theresa may survive because any tory with ambition could take her out now
And a big part of the May meltdown is the realisation that she is a TINO.0 -
Where have you campaigned in southampton test?Casino_Royale said:
Dunno. If CCHQ analysis is any good, the bits that might swing.TravelJunkie said:
I grew up in southampton itchen. Are you campaigning heavily around shirley? hill lane and portswood or are you going to the dives of redbridge bevois valley?Casino_Royale said:
I just got off the phone to Southampton Test candidate, but not revealing what he told me publicly.HYUFD said:
Down there tomorrow.
Put it this way: I think i am going to the right place, but it's a big ask for the Tories to take it.-1 -
Not a current poll. The field work is from 2 weeks ago.HYUFD said:
No they are not, BMG today has SCons on 30%MarkSenior said:
Cons in Scotland are slipping back into 3rd place as I forecast 3 weeks ago . Apart from BRS they have no gains banked .Alistair said:
Cons have got gains in Scotland "in the bank" which gives them a bit of breathing room.SeanT said:
The trend, my friend, the trend.ThreeQuidder said:
If the Tories get 44%+ it won't be a hung parliament.SeanT said:BETTING ADVICE
Given the polls, and the trend, the chances of a Hung Parliament are about 2/1, or 5/2 which means the 7/2 on offer is VALUE?0 -
It's not just Brexit but the year leave and guaranteed jobs on returning, the racial pay charter and other niggling regulations that just increase the burden on small business.JonathanD said:
Business leaders hate May because of Brexit and former Tory leaders (Hague and IDS aside) hate May because of Brexit.Brom said:
Yep been saying for days that if there's trouble they roll out the business leaders, the former MPs, the army and MI5 types. Either they're waiting for the whistle to begin their orchestrated attack or it's just not coming because it's not required. It's a reason why I'm holding off my bets until Tuesday.FrancisUrquhart said:I think if the Tories think they are in trouble we will be seeing all hands to the pumps from tomorrow and full on buckets of shit all across the papers. That or they haven't got a fucking clue how to counteract the corbgasm.
No one is going to come riding to May's rescue.
A hung parliament with Tory minority government and then a complete realignment of the political parties is what we need.0 -
If I were Corbyn I'd stick it in the manifesto: we will legislate for PM debates in future GEs. Excellent trolling value, and shows he is not motivated purely by where the tactical advantage lies this time round.SirNorfolkPassmore said:An interesting side-effect of all this is that, if the May majority is modest or non-existent, I cannot see there being another General Election now where the PM (or other leader) ducks out of a TV debate.
Whilst it's certainly not the sole cause of May's problems, it certainly hasn't helped, and I am sure the mythology will build up around it to the effect that crying off is a terrible mistake and something you just don't do.0 -
Alan Whitehead is very popular AFAIK, having been Labour candidate at every election since and including 1983. If he weren't standing it would probably be a straightforward Tory gain.Casino_Royale said:
Dunno. If CCHQ analysis is any good, the bits that might swing.TravelJunkie said:
I grew up in southampton itchen. Are you campaigning heavily around shirley? hill lane and portswood or are you going to the dives of redbridge bevois valley?Casino_Royale said:
I just got off the phone to Southampton Test candidate, but not revealing what he told me publicly.HYUFD said:
Down there tomorrow.
Put it this way: I think i am going to the right place, but it's a big ask for the Tories to take it.0 -
All the polls this week have the Tories 25%to 30% in ScotlandAlistair said:
Not a current poll. The field work is from 2 weeks ago.HYUFD said:
No they are not, BMG today has SCons on 30%MarkSenior said:
Cons in Scotland are slipping back into 3rd place as I forecast 3 weeks ago . Apart from BRS they have no gains banked .Alistair said:
Cons have got gains in Scotland "in the bank" which gives them a bit of breathing room.SeanT said:
The trend, my friend, the trend.ThreeQuidder said:
If the Tories get 44%+ it won't be a hung parliament.SeanT said:BETTING ADVICE
Given the polls, and the trend, the chances of a Hung Parliament are about 2/1, or 5/2 which means the 7/2 on offer is VALUE?0 -
Not unless she pulls a sickie and let Boris or Grieve take her place.chloe said:QT tonight critical for May?
I can't see QT doing anything tonight but enhance the narrative of the campaign to date.0 -
[deleted earlier text to make room]
"Comedy hour.
We were so all in it together (i.e., in socialist-engineered sh!te, literally in some places) that the electorate called for Margaret Thatcher who, by public demand, as good as destroyed the Labour Party for a generation. All in it together? DMAL. Were you there? I was."
Yes.
29% of adults (or 42% of those who turned out to vote) put a X for Thatcher on the ballot paper. Not exactly a great surge in public enthusiasm.
She torched manufacturing industry, failed to replace it by other wealth-creating activity and formally abandoned Heath's or Macmillan's full employment targets (which had been One Nation Tory policy since the War.) Harold Wilson actually closed more coal mines than Thatcher, because they weren't paying their way. One difference: he didn't follow it by a scorched-earth policy.
The early 1970s chaos, power cuts and 3 day week actually coincided with Ted Heath as PM. Castle with Wilson's agreement had already begun drafting proposals to tame the unions and get their tanks off the 10 Downing St. lawn, In Place of Strife, but encountered severe resistance from ... Callaghan and other MPs with strong union ties.
If you reply to this ... I'm afraid I'm only around for about 5 mins. more this afternoon but I may be back this evening.0 -
It was pretty much the first thing they did in this campaign. 3rd of May.rcs1000 said:Has no-one in CCHQ thought about resurrecting this:
Judge for yourself how well it worked...0 -
There is no cavalry waiting over the hill to ride to Custer May's rescue , just another hoard of Sioux Indians .Brom said:
Yep been saying for days that if there's trouble they roll out the business leaders, the former MPs, the army and MI5 types. Either they're waiting for the whistle to begin their orchestrated attack or it's just not coming because it's not required. It's a reason why I'm holding off my bets until Tuesday.FrancisUrquhart said:I think if the Tories think they are in trouble we will be seeing all hands to the pumps from tomorrow and full on buckets of shit all across the papers. That or they haven't got a fucking clue how to counteract the corbgasm.
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Indeed - no panic, indeed almost no response at all to the polls (apparently) turning.Brom said:
Yep been saying for days that if there's trouble they roll out the business leaders, the former MPs, the army and MI5 types. Either they're waiting for the whistle to begin their orchestrated attack or it's just not coming because it's not required. It's a reason why I'm holding off my bets until Tuesday.
I wonder, might they have some killer piece of info on Corbyn that was always going to be deployed in the final week?
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Linton Crosby must be grinning from ear to ear at these polls. Momentum haven't infiltrated them. Linton has!Prodicus said:
That.AlsoIndigo said:.
It's just possible that quite a large chunk of that fat Tory warchest is being poured into some really top quality stratified random sample polling, which is telling them something rather different to the horseshit self-selected pool sample stuff that appears in the papers.AndyJS said:
As someone said earlier it's becoming more and more difficult to get a representative polling sample. The number of adjustments the companies have to make these days is almost mind-boggling.The_Apocalypse said:
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
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No there aren't, but attacking property rights is going against our very nature as a party. My dad has been voting Tory since he arrived in the country and became old enough to vote, this is the first time he has questioned whether he will go to the polls. I think the fear of Corbyn will still send him there, but when a staunch supporter (previously member) like that is on the edge you know it's a shit policy.HYUFD said:
If you are in residential care you are now £77k better off and of course there will now be cap post u turn. I also somehow doubt increasing National Insurance to pay for social care would be a vote winner either. The Tories have clearly lost votes over this but there are no votes to be gained if you are going to properly fund social careMaxPB said:
Indeed, the last government introduced the IHT allowance homes, this one wants to take all but £100k worth of equity off you. The government has the giant fiscal tool of state pensions to fund old age care, they are just too stupid to use it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I supported the principle behind the social care policy, my issues were it was poorly communicated and most of all, you can't overturn 40 years of Tory orthodoxy like that.Slackbladder said:That's true and not true. I think people supported the 'idea' of tackling the need for increased support for social care. It was facing up to the funding needed.
But it was just done in a rubbish way and communicated awfully.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has been pushing that we should become a home owning democracy that you can leave tax free to your kids if you're not seriously wealthy.
You know it was poorly presented because even Tim flipping Farron mocked the plan in the debate on Wednesday.0 -
The Tories could be on 0% in the central belt and still gain SNP seats in Edinburgh, the borders, Moray, Perthshire and Aberdeenshirecalum said:
Based on my Central Belt discussions with friends & family Corbynmania has taken off this past week or so - SLAB will likely push SCON into 3rd place % wise - the polls will catch-up soon !HYUFD said:
No they are not, BMG today has SCons on 30%MarkSenior said:
Cons in Scotland are slipping back into 3rd place as I forecast 3 weeks ago . Apart from BRS they have no gains banked .Alistair said:
Cons have got gains in Scotland "in the bank" which gives them a bit of breathing room.SeanT said:
The trend, my friend, the trend.ThreeQuidder said:
If the Tories get 44%+ it won't be a hung parliament.SeanT said:BETTING ADVICE
Given the polls, and the trend, the chances of a Hung Parliament are about 2/1, or 5/2 which means the 7/2 on offer is VALUE?
Tactical voting might help SLID in a few seats - but anti-SCON/anti-SNP balance each other out - SCON gains towards bottom end of expectations.0 -
Update to YouGov model
95% confidence limits for first time have upper end of Labour seats (286) greater than lower end of Con seats (279) i.e. Labour most seats.-1 -
The cropped photos of Tories with 'hell for your family' in the background were all people saw.El_Capitano said:It was pretty much the first thing they did in this campaign. 3rd of May.
Judge for yourself how well it worked...0 -
The Economist is the closest we have to a house journal of business leaders. It endorsed the Lib Dems yesterday.Brom said:Yep been saying for days that if there's trouble they roll out the business leaders
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They only need enough energy to get to the polling station. Energy beyond that is wasted for a party that can win with "shy Tories", I guess.Slackbladder said:
i think the problem is that May isn't energising Tories at all at the moment. Compared with Cameron it's night and day.Greenwich_Floater said:not really a punter, but wondering if there is an angle on turnout on this election. Corbyn certainly seems to have energised his base, which should in turn energise Tory voters as the polls narrow,
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Maybe, but of course May is not Boris and she was not a leave campaigner. If she needed the help of Major then I expect he would put the party before his own Brexit views.JonathanD said:
Business leaders hate May because of Brexit and former Tory leaders (Hague and IDS aside) hate May because of Brexit.Brom said:
Yep been saying for days that if there's trouble they roll out the business leaders, the former MPs, the army and MI5 types. Either they're waiting for the whistle to begin their orchestrated attack or it's just not coming because it's not required. It's a reason why I'm holding off my bets until Tuesday.FrancisUrquhart said:I think if the Tories think they are in trouble we will be seeing all hands to the pumps from tomorrow and full on buckets of shit all across the papers. That or they haven't got a fucking clue how to counteract the corbgasm.
No one is going to come riding to May's rescue.
A hung parliament with Tory minority government and then a complete realignment of the political parties is what we need.
Business leaders might not like Brexit but it's almost certain to happen under Lab or Tory govs, and its safe to say that there would fear a realistic threat of a Corbyn government more than they would leaving the EU.
It has been noticeable that this election has seen an absense of signed letters from business leaders/celebs etc
Maybe in the post 'project fear' UK that kind of preaching is a thing of the past.0 -
So the only alternative is to whack up National Insurance then and Hammond got slated for even a minor move on thatMaxPB said:
No there aren't, but attacking property rights is going against our very nature as a party. My dad has been voting Tory since he arrived in the country and became old enough to vote, this is the first time he has questioned whether he will go to the polls. I think the fear of Corbyn will still send him there, but when a staunch supporter (previously member) like that is on the edge you know it's a shit policy.HYUFD said:
If you are in residential care you are now £77k better off and of course there will now be cap post u turn. I also somehow doubt increasing National Insurance to pay for social care would be a vote winner either. The Tories have clearly lost votes over this but there are no votes to be gained if you are going to properly fund social careMaxPB said:
Indeed, the last government introduced the IHT allowance homes, this one wants to take all but £100k worth of equity off you. The government has the giant fiscal tool of state pensions to fund old age care, they are just too stupid to use it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I supported the principle behind the social care policy, my issues were it was poorly communicated and most of all, you can't overturn 40 years of Tory orthodoxy like that.Slackbladder said:That's true and not true. I think people supported the 'idea' of tackling the need for increased support for social care. It was facing up to the funding needed.
But it was just done in a rubbish way and communicated awfully.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has been pushing that we should become a home owning democracy that you can leave tax free to your kids if you're not seriously wealthy.
You know it was poorly presented because even Tim flipping Farron mocked the plan in the debate on Wednesday.0 -
No it requires no Scotland seats to stop a Conservative overall majority . They would though need loads to get a Labour overall majority .david_herdson said:
That's quite an 'if', which inter alia requires them winning 40 seats or so in Scotland.MarkSenior said:
If the electoral arithmetic returns to its pre 2015 status , Labour will not need to be ahead of the Conservatives to stop a Conservative overall majority .ydoethur said:
Yes, but what happens if they still lose by a huge margin?tyson said:It's been the most fantastic shift seeing the Corbyn campaign at the outset talking about their end strategy of maintaining the leadership of the party to now genuinely thinking they can bring down May...
Or to put it in context, the polls are worse for Labour now than they were for much of the 1979 election when several put them ahead (although there were many put them behind as well) and almost all had Callaghan as the most popular leader. Not one poll in over a year has put Labour in the lead. As for Corbyn's leadership ratings, despite the hysteria and the genuine decline in may's personal ratings, his are still worse. The last election for which those are both true is I think 1983 (not sure about 1987, but think Labour were leading about 6 months before). If we add Labour in it's 2001. Think about the implications of that.
This is more significant as in 1979 (a) they were expected to lose and (b) were in government and had more room to control the campaign.
Which is why I wonder what will happen if Labour still get shattered. How horrendous might the reaction be?
Edit - no, Labour had a dip in the polls in September 2000 after the fuel strike didn't they? 1997's the comparison.0 -
David I'm not trolling about Davis. His pet issues are mostly to do with not letting the state become over-intrusive. I know many people want nannying but, even in a world with terrorists, there is a point at which government overreach does more harm than good. His flounce by-election and subsequent sacking by Dave were of a theme. As a PM he'd be dull, solid, Brexity, right about most things, able to communicate and rip Corbyn a new one. He'd be very safe. He can talk human.0
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@Nemtynakht Tbf, we will be paying more tax no matter who gets in. It's how much - that is what really matters. Hollande was a disaster for France - certainly it doesn't appear that his polices ended up helping the poorest, which is what Corbyn supporters claim they'll do. You can't help the poorest if you crash the economy.
Last time I went on 'holiday' was several years ago to visit family in Jamaica. Certainly never went on holiday every year as prior to 2007, we lived in a one bedroom flat.0 -
No, limit the state pension to a 1% rise for 5 years. Use those savings to fund social care. Job done. Oldies paying for their own care in a way where no one is hurt too much.HYUFD said:
So the only alternative is to whack up National Insurance then and Hammond got slated for even a minor move on thatMaxPB said:
No there aren't, but attacking property rights is going against our very nature as a party. My dad has been voting Tory since he arrived in the country and became old enough to vote, this is the first time he has questioned whether he will go to the polls. I think the fear of Corbyn will still send him there, but when a staunch supporter (previously member) like that is on the edge you know it's a shit policy.HYUFD said:
If you are in residential care you are now £77k better off and of course there will now be cap post u turn. I also somehow doubt increasing National Insurance to pay for social care would be a vote winner either. The Tories have clearly lost votes over this but there are no votes to be gained if you are going to properly fund social careMaxPB said:
Indeed, the last government introduced the IHT allowance homes, this one wants to take all but £100k worth of equity off you. The government has the giant fiscal tool of state pensions to fund old age care, they are just too stupid to use it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I supported the principle behind the social care policy, my issues were it was poorly communicated and most of all, you can't overturn 40 years of Tory orthodoxy like that.Slackbladder said:That's true and not true. I think people supported the 'idea' of tackling the need for increased support for social care. It was facing up to the funding needed.
But it was just done in a rubbish way and communicated awfully.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has been pushing that we should become a home owning democracy that you can leave tax free to your kids if you're not seriously wealthy.
You know it was poorly presented because even Tim flipping Farron mocked the plan in the debate on Wednesday.0 -
Maybe some of that fat Tory warchest could have been used to focus group their woeful manifesto.Leedsprinter said:
Linton Crosby must be grinning from ear to ear at these polls. Momentum haven't infiltrated them. Linton has!Prodicus said:
That.AlsoIndigo said:.
It's just possible that quite a large chunk of that fat Tory warchest is being poured into some really top quality stratified random sample polling, which is telling them something rather different to the horseshit self-selected pool sample stuff that appears in the papers.AndyJS said:
As someone said earlier it's becoming more and more difficult to get a representative polling sample. The number of adjustments the companies have to make these days is almost mind-boggling.The_Apocalypse said:
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.0 -
Which suggests The Economist probably don't see Corbyn as a real threat to a Tory majority either.El_Capitano said:
The Economist is the closest we have to a house journal of business leaders. It endorsed the Lib Dems yesterday.Brom said:Yep been saying for days that if there's trouble they roll out the business leaders
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I should cover your positions if I were youPulpstar said:
Local election, by-election etc.GideonWise said:
Models with inputs a month out of date?Pulpstar said:If May doesn't get a majority it'll have broken every single model.
NE Derbyshire is back on the table if this morning is anywhere near accurate.0 -
Not bet on NE Derbyshire, took cover in Derby North.bigjohnowls said:
I should cover your positions if I were youPulpstar said:
Local election, by-election etc.GideonWise said:
Models with inputs a month out of date?Pulpstar said:If May doesn't get a majority it'll have broken every single model.
NE Derbyshire is back on the table if this morning is anywhere near accurate.0 -
Instead of sticking 6 leaflets through my doorGideonWise said:
Maybe some of that fat Tory warchest could have been used to focus group their woeful manifesto.Leedsprinter said:
Linton Crosby must be grinning from ear to ear at these polls. Momentum haven't infiltrated them. Linton has!Prodicus said:
That.AlsoIndigo said:.
It's just possible that quite a large chunk of that fat Tory warchest is being poured into some really top quality stratified random sample polling, which is telling them something rather different to the horseshit self-selected pool sample stuff that appears in the papers.AndyJS said:
As someone said earlier it's becoming more and more difficult to get a representative polling sample. The number of adjustments the companies have to make these days is almost mind-boggling.The_Apocalypse said:
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
Despite the Im Voting Labour Posters0 -
When the alternative is also a fantasist and a liar. £350m per week for the NHS? Anyone?ydoethur said:
They are being asked to vote for an apologist for serial killers who hangs out with Holocaust Deniers, who is also a fantastist and liar.GideonWise said:
Interesting anecdata. But the message that people are more motivated to get out and vote to stop a landslide than they are if their man has a chance to win? That sounds rather bizarre.Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
I can see why the only reason they would vote for him is if they thought the alternative was the utter destruction of the Labour Party.
With regard to canvass returns I wonder if the problem might be people are saying one thing on the doorsteps and another on the net/phones. That could explain it.0 -
The Undercover Economist, Tim Harford, is obviously less than impressed:
https://www.ft.com/content/3dd677d8-4635-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996
" Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn offer an inedible menu of policies
Neither leader has shown reason to believe they are fit to run the country"
" Give a blindfolded orang-utan a crayon and the 2010 ballot paper, and she could hardly fail to pick a party to beat anything this election has to offer."
(and it goes on from there)
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I read your post perfectly clearly don't worryThe_Apocalypse said:
You seem to have misread my post. I earn under 25k, not 25k so measuring that in terms of graduate salary seems rather odd. It's my Mum who earns just over that.
The average salary is around 27k in this country, and Corbynistas have said that they are only going to penalise the 'rich' not anyone near the average salary.
My point was that 25k was an interesting point of comparison because you picked it as your yardstick, not because I believed that you earned it - and one of the reasons why it's interesting is that, while for a young graduate it is about a benchmark salary (e.g. for early-career nurses and teachers, but also in the private sector) and "below average" in the "below the mean" sense, the mean is very skewed by the minority of very high earners, and graduates make good money compared to non-graduates. The median is far lower (about 22k if I recall correctly). So when a young graduate is using 25k as a benchmark they are, at a very tender age, comparing already comparing themselves to a salary that puts them well into the top half of the population. If their peak earning capacity is going to be in their 40s (which is when the gap between graduate professionals and non-graduates really goes into overdrive) then the lot of a graduate in this country does not seem, at least in comparative terms, a bad one.
Look up on the IFS site how a single adult on 25k is doing, comparatively, and it is really rather good. So as a benchmark to compare to, 25k is actually quite high. But even 20k isn't bad. And a young couple on 20k apiece - which as graduate salaries may not sound much at all - still put themselves in the top third of households. If you're living with your parents, stick your combined family income into the IFS site. I'd be astonished if you're not living, statistically, in one of the country's better off households. (Obviously this is somewhat skewed by you living in the South East.) If the Labour manifesto targets the poorest in society, it is unsurprising that your household is not so well-poised as others to receive its largesse.
And yet. We know young people, even graduates, struggle. You wouldn't live with parents if that weren't the case with you. And even if your parents are strictly speaking in the richer 50%+ of the population, they clearly don't feel it. This is the "squeezed middle" or "just about managing" problem. If people in your family's situation are struggling then just how rough is it for the C2DEs of this world? They are on a whole other level of pain. They are the ones that brought us Brexit after all. They may yet bring Corbyn to a Blair-like vote share. I loved @RochdalePioneer's post. Lots of people are hurting right now, and they want a bit of hope.0 -
The Economist are right.Andy_Cooke said:The Undercover Economist, Tim Harford, is obviously less than impressed:
https://www.ft.com/content/3dd677d8-4635-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996
" Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn offer an inedible menu of policies
Neither leader has shown reason to believe they are fit to run the country"
" Give a blindfolded orang-utan a crayon and the 2010 ballot paper, and she could hardly fail to pick a party to beat anything this election has to offer."
(and it goes on from there)-1 -
Undoubtedly one of the reasons May went for the early election was because of the possibility of several Tory candidates being charged with a chance of a string of by-elections following. In the event only one has been which would have proved of little consequence had the parliament run to 2020. However in the context of GE 2017 South Thanet could not be worse for her - her lucky tag is fast disintegrating.0
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Is that something the EU negotiators are likely to accept though? and presumably if they do reciprocal schemes for our expats would be on the cards?rcs1000 said:
And IIRC only Swiss citizens get it subsidised, not immigrants.MaxPB said:
The basic package is 400 CHF per month, about £4k per year. The only £2k packages available are to young people and the unemployed who get it subsidised.rcs1000 said:
I think it's a bit more subtle than that. If EFTA/EEA is sold as a transitional arrangement to the British people then I doubt they would be more than 10%. If that was combined with compulsory health insurance - as is required for foreigners in Switzerland where it costs more than £2,000 a year - it would probably be more like 6-7%.HYUFD said:
Kermit the Frog could lead UKIP and they would poll 20 to 25% if the Tories leave free movement uncontrolled and agree huge payments to the EUrcs1000 said:
I think you need to remember that Nigel Farage captured and channeled anger at Brussels and the status quo like no other party leader before or since. The Lord Nuttall does not have his passion, or his intelligence. (He's also a complete fantasist.) Under Nuttall, I think they would struggle to perform under any scenario except an absolute about U-turn.HYUFD said:NO UKIP are finished PRECISELY because May is pursuing the free movement controls and regained sovereignty every poll shows Tory voters want, any big concessions by the Tories on payments to the EU will see UKIP make a swifter revival than Lazarus, May or no May
So it would cost someone without a job nearly £400/month to be in Switzerland before any other costs. That's a real disincentive for low skilled immigrants who aren't - say - working for a Swiss private bank.0 -
No, it started out like that.Barnesian said:Update to YouGov model
95% confidence limits for first time have upper end of Labour seats (286) greater than lower end of Con seats (279) i.e. Labour most seats.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBUHaNFXgAAIMMV.jpg:large0 -
Sorry, Dave. You are not the world's most interesting man,Casino_Royale said:
My good friend = we've met, and he knows me, and I really really want you to think we're besties.Pulpstar said:Who would like to see this pair in charge of the UK
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/868466053885702145
Not even close....
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/02/most-interesting-man-world-friends-barack-obama-215215
0 -
Clearly they felt one leaflet was insufficient to convince you...bigjohnowls said:
Instead of sticking 6 leaflets through my doorGideonWise said:
Maybe some of that fat Tory warchest could have been used to focus group their woeful manifesto.Leedsprinter said:
Linton Crosby must be grinning from ear to ear at these polls. Momentum haven't infiltrated them. Linton has!Prodicus said:
That.AlsoIndigo said:.
It's just possible that quite a large chunk of that fat Tory warchest is being poured into some really top quality stratified random sample polling, which is telling them something rather different to the horseshit self-selected pool sample stuff that appears in the papers.AndyJS said:
As someone said earlier it's becoming more and more difficult to get a representative polling sample. The number of adjustments the companies have to make these days is almost mind-boggling.The_Apocalypse said:
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
Despite the Im Voting Labour Posters0 -
I understand where you are coming from and I was merely commenting on what people now expect as a minimum standard of living. Broadband, mobile phone, eating out etc, which was never likely when I was growing up.The_Apocalypse said:@Nemtynakht Tbf, we will be paying more tax no matter who gets in. It's how much - that is what really matters. Hollande was a disaster for France - certainly it doesn't appear that his polices ended up helping the poorest, which is what Corbyn supporters claim they'll do. You can't help the poorest if you crash the economy.
Last time I went on 'holiday' was several years ago to visit family in Jamaica. Certainly never went on holiday every year as prior to 2007, we lived in a one bedroom flat.
The key for me is that Corbyn's superficial appeal is look at all these goodies, only the top 10% will pay for this. I would argue that they will not pay it. It will not get anywhere near what they say and the middle will have to pay. Worse that that those with money and assets in the U.K. Will be scared of how they will be handled and will move them out of the UK leading to asset deflation.0 -
The massive economic conundrum all politiicans face is that raising taxes stifles growth. If we tax enough to fund our welfare wishlists we won't be able to sustain it and will kill the economy in the process. Labour offers a jam tsunami because they don't understand or don't care about the consequences of deficits. The Tories, in a hugely cackhanded way, seem to be trying to do the right thing on welfare for oldies. But this gets few votes. So...there are no votes in facing up to reality.
I hope for the country's sake that May gets a workable majority, sees us through Brexit in a 'Brexit means Brexit' sort of way, and then gets defenestrated.0 -
That was the Leave campaign. Theresa May campaigned (sort of) for Remain, so you can't hang that one on her.Chris_A said:
When the alternative is also a fantasist and a liar. £350m per week for the NHS? Anyone?ydoethur said:
They are being asked to vote for an apologist for serial killers who hangs out with Holocaust Deniers, who is also a fantastist and liar.GideonWise said:
Interesting anecdata. But the message that people are more motivated to get out and vote to stop a landslide than they are if their man has a chance to win? That sounds rather bizarre.Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
I can see why the only reason they would vote for him is if they thought the alternative was the utter destruction of the Labour Party.
With regard to canvass returns I wonder if the problem might be people are saying one thing on the doorsteps and another on the net/phones. That could explain it.0 -
Vote Tory and you will see your pension rise less than inflation, yes great vote winner for the grey vote!! Unfortunately whatever you do people will complainMaxPB said:
No, limit the state pension to a 1% rise for 5 years. Use those savings to fund social care. Job done. Oldies paying for their own care in a way where no one is hurt too much.HYUFD said:
So the only alternative is to whack up National Insurance then and Hammond got slated for even a minor move on thatMaxPB said:
No there aren't, but attacking property rights is going against our very nature as a party. My dad has been voting Tory since he arrived in the country and became old enough to vote, this is the first time he has questioned whether he will go to the polls. I think the fear of Corbyn will still send him there, but when a staunch supporter (previously member) like that is on the edge you know it's a shit policy.HYUFD said:
If you are in residential care you are now £77k better off and of course there will now be cap post u turn. I also somehow doubt increasing National Insurance to pay for social care would be a vote winner either. The Tories have clearly lost votes over this but there are no votes to be gained if you are going to properly fund social careMaxPB said:
Indeed, the last government introduced the IHT allowance homes, this one wants to take all but £100k worth of equity off you. The government has the giant fiscal tool of state pensions to fund old age care, they are just too stupid to use it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I supported the principle behind the social care policy, my issues were it was poorly communicated and most of all, you can't overturn 40 years of Tory orthodoxy like that.Slackbladder said:That's true and not true. I think people supported the 'idea' of tackling the need for increased support for social care. It was facing up to the funding needed.
But it was just done in a rubbish way and communicated awfully.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has been pushing that we should become a home owning democracy that you can leave tax free to your kids if you're not seriously wealthy.
You know it was poorly presented because even Tim flipping Farron mocked the plan in the debate on Wednesday.0 -
Yes, the next prime minister could be a terrorist sympathiser, the next Home Secretary might be someone who wanted to close down MI5 and the next Chancellor might be a Marxist but life could be worse, I could be Lancastrian:
Lancs 48-6 vs Yorks.
#GiveUpPoliticsAndFollowCricket0 -
My feet are still on the ground. I still think TMICIPM increased Maj
But I think JackW landslide ie over 100 maj. is not accurate anymore.
I reckon a Con Maj of 40 to 65 most likely.0 -
My apolitical brother (who actually bothered to vote Leave in the Euref but doesn't normally), actually predicted this. He said people who don't normally vote will turnout for Corbyn making the race a lot closer then people think. Like Brexit and Trump
I was sceptical, but now I believe him.
Sometimes to appreciate what is actually happening we need to step back for a minute ignore the punditry and see what is actually happening in the real world.
After yeards of GDP growth but no one but the bankers feeling it people want change. Any change, as long it is change.
Brexit, Trump and now Corbyn.......what a couple of years it has been.....0 -
A truism multiplied tenfold by impending Brexit.Patrick said:The massive economic conundrum all politiicans face is that raising taxes stifles growth. If we tax enough to fund our welfare wishlists we won't be able to sustain it and will kill the economy in the process. Labour offers a jam tsunami because they don't understand or don't care about the consequences of deficits. The Tories, in a hugely cackhanded way, seem to be trying to do the right thing on welfare for oldies. But this gets few votes. So...there are no votes in facing up to reality.
I hope for the country's sake that May gets a workable majority, sees us through Brexit in a 'Brexit means Brexit' sort of way, and then gets defenestrated.
Corbyn as PM would almost certainly tip the balance for companies already rethinking their plans for investing in the U.K.
0 -
Britain Elects @britainelects
Satisfied / Dissatisfied ratings:
T. May: 43 / 50 (!)
J. Corbyn: 39 / 500 -
@bigjohnowls Wheres the shift in NE Derbyshire. Lab voters heading back to Engel in Killamarsh ?0
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Nat to SLab shift within your circle, I'd guess. Nervous times for Sturgeon.calum said:
Based on my Central Belt discussions with friends & family Corbynmania has taken off this past week or so - SLAB will likely push SCON into 3rd place % wise - the polls will catch-up soon !HYUFD said:
No they are not, BMG today has SCons on 30%MarkSenior said:
Cons in Scotland are slipping back into 3rd place as I forecast 3 weeks ago . Apart from BRS they have no gains banked .Alistair said:
Cons have got gains in Scotland "in the bank" which gives them a bit of breathing room.SeanT said:
The trend, my friend, the trend.ThreeQuidder said:
If the Tories get 44%+ it won't be a hung parliament.SeanT said:BETTING ADVICE
Given the polls, and the trend, the chances of a Hung Parliament are about 2/1, or 5/2 which means the 7/2 on offer is VALUE?
Tactical voting might help SLID in a few seats - but anti-SCON/anti-SNP balance each other out - SCON gains towards bottom end of expectations.0 -
It could change the narrative in May's favour.Greenwich_Floater said:
Not unless she pulls a sickie and let Boris or Grieve take her place.chloe said:QT tonight critical for May?
I can't see QT doing anything tonight but enhance the narrative of the campaign to date.
0 -
At least this election has put to bed the idea that TMay was being Machiavellian by keeping her head down during the EU referendum. Just her usual campaigning style.0
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David 'I'm not trolling about' Davis would be an excellent moniker.Patrick said:David I'm not trolling about Davis. His pet issues are mostly to do with not letting the state become over-intrusive. I know many people want nannying but, even in a world with terrorists, there is a point at which government overreach does more harm than good. His flounce by-election and subsequent sacking by Dave were of a theme. As a PM he'd be dull, solid, Brexity, right about most things, able to communicate and rip Corbyn a new one. He'd be very safe. He can talk human.
0 -
We should all wait for JohnO's report from Kingston and Surbiton.0
-
Will she be going to York for Question Time tonight?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfAYz6p-mlw
She may well not go. But Boris! You've got to be joking!Greenwich_Floater said:Not unless she pulls a sickie and let Boris or Grieve take her place.
0 -
TBF TM had form on trying to avoid campaigningCarolus_Rex said:
That was the Leave campaign. Theresa May campaigned (sort of) for Remain, so you can't hang that one on her.Chris_A said:
When the alternative is also a fantasist and a liar. £350m per week for the NHS? Anyone?ydoethur said:
They are being asked to vote for an apologist for serial killers who hangs out with Holocaust Deniers, who is also a fantastist and liar.GideonWise said:
Interesting anecdata. But the message that people are more motivated to get out and vote to stop a landslide than they are if their man has a chance to win? That sounds rather bizarre.Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
I can see why the only reason they would vote for him is if they thought the alternative was the utter destruction of the Labour Party.
With regard to canvass returns I wonder if the problem might be people are saying one thing on the doorsteps and another on the net/phones. That could explain it.
Now we know why0 -
It does look that way.bigjohnowls said:
TBF TM had form on trying to avoid campaigningCarolus_Rex said:
That was the Leave campaign. Theresa May campaigned (sort of) for Remain, so you can't hang that one on her.Chris_A said:
When the alternative is also a fantasist and a liar. £350m per week for the NHS? Anyone?ydoethur said:
They are being asked to vote for an apologist for serial killers who hangs out with Holocaust Deniers, who is also a fantastist and liar.GideonWise said:
Interesting anecdata. But the message that people are more motivated to get out and vote to stop a landslide than they are if their man has a chance to win? That sounds rather bizarre.Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
I can see why the only reason they would vote for him is if they thought the alternative was the utter destruction of the Labour Party.
With regard to canvass returns I wonder if the problem might be people are saying one thing on the doorsteps and another on the net/phones. That could explain it.
Now we know why0 -
Fair point, although you were talking about "the electoral arithmetic return[ing] to its pre 2015 status", which does imply the pre-SNP landslide. At the least, it'd mean a return to the 2015 Con/Lab situation in Scotland, with 1-2 Con seats rather than the 6-8 which currently look likely.MarkSenior said:
No it requires no Scotland seats to stop a Conservative overall majority . They would though need loads to get a Labour overall majority .david_herdson said:
That's quite an 'if', which inter alia requires them winning 40 seats or so in Scotland.MarkSenior said:
If the electoral arithmetic returns to its pre 2015 status , Labour will not need to be ahead of the Conservatives to stop a Conservative overall majority .ydoethur said:
Yes, but what happens if they still lose by a huge margin?tyson said:It's been the most fantastic shift seeing the Corbyn campaign at the outset talking about their end strategy of maintaining the leadership of the party to now genuinely thinking they can bring down May...
Or to put it in context, the polls are worse for Labour now than they were for much of the 1979 election when several put them ahead (although there were many put them behind as well) and almost all had Callaghan as the most popular leader. Not one poll in over a year has put Labour in the lead. As for Corbyn's leadership ratings, despite the hysteria and the genuine decline in may's personal ratings, his are still worse. The last election for which those are both true is I think 1983 (not sure about 1987, but think Labour were leading about 6 months before). If we add Labour in it's 2001. Think about the implications of that.
This is more significant as in 1979 (a) they were expected to lose and (b) were in government and had more room to control the campaign.
Which is why I wonder what will happen if Labour still get shattered. How horrendous might the reaction be?
Edit - no, Labour had a dip in the polls in September 2000 after the fuel strike didn't they? 1997's the comparison.0 -
I do wonder how many people who do vote for Corbyn actually realise where they are on the net beneficiary/net payer divide of his policies! Young professional graduates in the private sector in particular (in the public sector, pay rises might more than cancel out tax rises) may feel squeezed right now, but most people misjudge how they stand compared to UK averages because of their social and work circle. How many of them socialise with people from the C2DE bracket? I know there's been extensive research on this, but would be glad if someone could give me a pointer. It has been pointed out rather tritely that e.g. the Occupy Movement (led largely by middle-class students) was essentially the 10% being envious of the 1%, or even the 1% of the 0.1%. I think that's one of those harsh judgements that has an element of truth to it.rkrkrk said:
Looking at the manifestos:
If you're in public sector - Corbyn will likely mean higher pay. Probably not much higher.
Tories will reduce your income tax a tiny amount (think I saw 33 pounds a year quoted by IFS).
Unclear what the impact of Corbyn corporation tax rise will be - but very unlikely it will be restricted to just the top 5% of earners. Presumably you use the NHS which Corbyn will provide more funding to (and IMO really does need it).
Tories haven't ruled out tax increases - and Labour may have to break their promise to restrict them to those in the top 5%....
Guess it depends who you trust more!
The posh girls in Bobajob's office spring to mind. Richard Nabavi posted an even more extreme example a few days ago - which suggests even people earning 100k+ might believe that Corbyn will somehow get the money from "making sure corporations pay their taxes" and "taxing seriously highly paid people".
As you say, the Tories have not been clear either which negates a lot of their advantage here.0 -
it changed a day or so ago, so that the best labour result was a tie. presumably following the trend.RobD said:
No, it started out like that.Barnesian said:Update to YouGov model
95% confidence limits for first time have upper end of Labour seats (286) greater than lower end of Con seats (279) i.e. Labour most seats.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBUHaNFXgAAIMMV.jpg:large0 -
I think that is today's version. It is dated 2 June. I'll check the first one.RobD said:
No, it started out like that.Barnesian said:Update to YouGov model
95% confidence limits for first time have upper end of Labour seats (286) greater than lower end of Con seats (279) i.e. Labour most seats.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBUHaNFXgAAIMMV.jpg:large0 -
They are precisely what make you a rational target, if you think about it. Try "Already voted".bigjohnowls said:
Instead of sticking 6 leaflets through my doorGideonWise said:
Maybe some of that fat Tory warchest could have been used to focus group their woeful manifesto.Leedsprinter said:
Linton Crosby must be grinning from ear to ear at these polls. Momentum haven't infiltrated them. Linton has!Prodicus said:
That.AlsoIndigo said:.
It's just possible that quite a large chunk of that fat Tory warchest is being poured into some really top quality stratified random sample polling, which is telling them something rather different to the horseshit self-selected pool sample stuff that appears in the papers.AndyJS said:
As someone said earlier it's becoming more and more difficult to get a representative polling sample. The number of adjustments the companies have to make these days is almost mind-boggling.The_Apocalypse said:
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
Despite the Im Voting Labour Posters0 -
0
-
That's already going to happen, the triple lock has been dumped.HYUFD said:
Vote Tory and you will see your pension rise less than inflation, yes great vote winner for the grey vote!! Unfortunately whatever you do people will complainMaxPB said:
No, limit the state pension to a 1% rise for 5 years. Use those savings to fund social care. Job done. Oldies paying for their own care in a way where no one is hurt too much.HYUFD said:
So the only alternative is to whack up National Insurance then and Hammond got slated for even a minor move on thatMaxPB said:
No there aren't, but attacking property rights is going against our very nature as a party. My dad has been voting Tory since he arrived in the country and became old enough to vote, this is the first time he has questioned whether he will go to the polls. I think the fear of Corbyn will still send him there, but when a staunch supporter (previously member) like that is on the edge you know it's a shit policy.HYUFD said:
If you are in residential care you are now £77k better off and of course there will now be cap post u turn. I also somehow doubt increasing National Insurance to pay for social care would be a vote winner either. The Tories have clearly lost votes over this but there are no votes to be gained if you are going to properly fund social careMaxPB said:
Indeed, the last government introduced the IHT allowance homes, this one wants to take all but £100k worth of equity off you. The government has the giant fiscal tool of state pensions to fund old age care, they are just too stupid to use it.TheScreamingEagles said:
I supported the principle behind the social care policy, my issues were it was poorly communicated and most of all, you can't overturn 40 years of Tory orthodoxy like that.Slackbladder said:That's true and not true. I think people supported the 'idea' of tackling the need for increased support for social care. It was facing up to the funding needed.
But it was just done in a rubbish way and communicated awfully.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has been pushing that we should become a home owning democracy that you can leave tax free to your kids if you're not seriously wealthy.
You know it was poorly presented because even Tim flipping Farron mocked the plan in the debate on Wednesday.0 -
Same thoughts here.Andrew said:
Indeed - no panic, indeed almost no response at all to the polls (apparently) turning.Brom said:
Yep been saying for days that if there's trouble they roll out the business leaders, the former MPs, the army and MI5 types. Either they're waiting for the whistle to begin their orchestrated attack or it's just not coming because it's not required. It's a reason why I'm holding off my bets until Tuesday.
I wonder, might they have some killer piece of info on Corbyn that was always going to be deployed in the final week?
Corbyn changing his mind, May not is not indicative of panic from CCHQ.
FWIW, NPxMP's comments suggest the Tory share stable, so everything seems to hinge on Labour voters turning out.
In football parlance, squeeky bum time.0 -
Lancashire getting utterly Bencoad.david_herdson said:Yes, the next prime minister could be a terrorist sympathiser, the next Home Secretary might be someone who wanted to close down MI5 and the next Chancellor might be a Marxist but life could be worse, I could be Lancastrian:
Lancs 48-6 vs Yorks.
#GiveUpPoliticsAndFollowCricket
0 -
That explains it! HEr ratings are almost as bad as Corbyn's. Remember the supplementaries told the whole story last time.logical_song said:Britain Elects @britainelects
Satisfied / Dissatisfied ratings:
T. May: 43 / 50 (!)
J. Corbyn: 39 / 500 -
Been to Pub time for a singalong to the tune of yellow submarine
We're all led by a Blue Submarine a shit Submarine a Frit Submarine
Then along came Jezza C, Keir Starmer and Mc eDee0 -
I was intensely relaxed about EdMPM. Not this one !0
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We will find out how woeful it was next week.GideonWise said:
Maybe some of that fat Tory warchest could have been used to focus group their woeful manifesto.Leedsprinter said:
Linton Crosby must be grinning from ear to ear at these polls. Momentum haven't infiltrated them. Linton has!Prodicus said:
That.AlsoIndigo said:.
It's just possible that quite a large chunk of that fat Tory warchest is being poured into some really top quality stratified random sample polling, which is telling them something rather different to the horseshit self-selected pool sample stuff that appears in the papers.AndyJS said:
As someone said earlier it's becoming more and more difficult to get a representative polling sample. The number of adjustments the companies have to make these days is almost mind-boggling.The_Apocalypse said:
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
(and in anycase it wasnt woeful before Nick Timothy got hold of it)
At the moment we are standing outside a dress rehearsal for a new play, we try and stop of few people coming out and ask what it was like, most push straight past us, a few stop and tell us that this player or that player fumbled their lines, or tripped over on the stage. Meanwhile the actors get to see the whole audiences reaction and have a much better idea how well it is going down. It might be a disaster, it might be a triumph, we will find out next week, at which point we might ask who had been paying those people coming out the door to tell us what they did!0 -
BuggerIshmael_Z said:
They are precisely what make you a rational target, if you think about it. Try "Already voted".bigjohnowls said:
Instead of sticking 6 leaflets through my doorGideonWise said:
Maybe some of that fat Tory warchest could have been used to focus group their woeful manifesto.Leedsprinter said:
Linton Crosby must be grinning from ear to ear at these polls. Momentum haven't infiltrated them. Linton has!Prodicus said:
That.AlsoIndigo said:.
It's just possible that quite a large chunk of that fat Tory warchest is being poured into some really top quality stratified random sample polling, which is telling them something rather different to the horseshit self-selected pool sample stuff that appears in the papers.AndyJS said:
As someone said earlier it's becoming more and more difficult to get a representative polling sample. The number of adjustments the companies have to make these days is almost mind-boggling.The_Apocalypse said:
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
Despite the Im Voting Labour Posters
Gets pen out to Poster!!0 -
Frankly, the Conservatives could have done a lot worse than making "An extra £350m a week for the NHS" their core policy.Carolus_Rex said:
That was the Leave campaign. Theresa May campaigned (sort of) for Remain, so you can't hang that one on her.Chris_A said:
When the alternative is also a fantasist and a liar. £350m per week for the NHS? Anyone?ydoethur said:
They are being asked to vote for an apologist for serial killers who hangs out with Holocaust Deniers, who is also a fantastist and liar.GideonWise said:
Interesting anecdata. But the message that people are more motivated to get out and vote to stop a landslide than they are if their man has a chance to win? That sounds rather bizarre.Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
I can see why the only reason they would vote for him is if they thought the alternative was the utter destruction of the Labour Party.
With regard to canvass returns I wonder if the problem might be people are saying one thing on the doorsteps and another on the net/phones. That could explain it.0 -
Maybe May is just playing a rope-a-dope strategy, and it'll all work out. Who the f*** knows.Pulpstar said:Theresa May in Don Valley !
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/8706188594427207680 -
To be fair - maybe these people realise they might be personally made worse off but think that's a price worth paying for a more equal society, avoiding an NHS collapse, properly funded schools etc..?MyBurningEars said:
I do wonder how many people who do vote for Corbyn actually realise where they are on the net beneficiary/net payer divide of his policies! Young professional graduates in the private sector in particular (in the public sector, pay rises might more than cancel out tax rises) may feel squeezed right now, but most people misjudge how they stand compared to UK averages because of their social and work circle. How many of them socialise with people from the C2DE bracket? I know there's been extensive research on this, but would be glad if someone could give me a pointer. It has been pointed out rather tritely that e.g. the Occupy Movement (led largely by middle-class students) was essentially the 10% being envious of the 1%, or even the 1% of the 0.1%. I think that's one of those harsh judgements that has an element of truth to it.rkrkrk said:
Looking at the manifestos:
If you're in public sector - Corbyn will likely mean higher pay. Probably not much higher.
Tories will reduce your income tax a tiny amount (think I saw 33 pounds a year quoted by IFS).
Unclear what the impact of Corbyn corporation tax rise will be - but very unlikely it will be restricted to just the top 5% of earners. Presumably you use the NHS which Corbyn will provide more funding to (and IMO really does need it).
Tories haven't ruled out tax increases - and Labour may have to break their promise to restrict them to those in the top 5%....
Guess it depends who you trust more!
The posh girls in Bobajob's office spring to mind. Richard Nabavi posted an even more extreme example a few days ago - which suggests even people earning 100k+ might believe that Corbyn will somehow get the money from "making sure corporations pay their taxes" and "taxing seriously highly paid people".
As you say, the Tories have not been clear either which negates a lot of their advantage here.
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Nope, we know for sure it was woeful. That's why the main policy in it was u-turned within a week.AlsoIndigo said:
We will find out how woeful it was next week.GideonWise said:
Maybe some of that fat Tory warchest could have been used to focus group their woeful manifesto.Leedsprinter said:
Linton Crosby must be grinning from ear to ear at these polls. Momentum haven't infiltrated them. Linton has!Prodicus said:
That.AlsoIndigo said:.
It's just possible that quite a large chunk of that fat Tory warchest is being poured into some really top quality stratified random sample polling, which is telling them something rather different to the horseshit self-selected pool sample stuff that appears in the papers.AndyJS said:
As someone said earlier it's becoming more and more difficult to get a representative polling sample. The number of adjustments the companies have to make these days is almost mind-boggling.The_Apocalypse said:
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
(and in anycase it wasnt woeful before Nick Timothy got hold of it)
At the moment we are standing outside a dress rehearsal for a new play, we try and stop of few people coming out and ask what it was like, most push straight past us, a few stop and tell us that this player or that player fumbled their lines, or tripped over on the stage. Meanwhile the actors get to see the whole audiences reaction and have a much better idea how well it is going down. It might be a disaster, it might be a triumph, we will find out next week, at which point we might ask who had been paying those people coming out the door to tell us what they did!
We are standing outside and we can hear the audience groans and moans.0 -
It's interesting that even people earning 80k don't always see themselves as particularly well off! Matter of perspective I suspsect. The fact that most people believe themselves to be roughly average, but that there are a lot of people who are "rich" a couple of pay grades above them, must make a non-specific "we''ll help out the average Joe by taxing 'the Rich'" a very tempting electoral slogan.The_Apocalypse said:
Well (see above) Corbynistas are now admitting that it won't just be the 'rich' who lose out under Corbyn which is basically what they've been telling people. It will be most of the country, because of how they see what 'rich' is and it's not 80k.0 -
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process.
He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case.
"I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-40129826
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EdM is nigh on a tory compared with Corbyn and McDonnell.Pulpstar said:I was intensely relaxed about EdMPM. Not this one !
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@MyBurningEars
I picked it because of this reasons you state as well as it being close to the average salary. I just found it odd that you talked so much about graduates on 25k, however now I get why you did that.
I don't blame CD2Es and others for voting for Corbyn, or, indeed Brexit. I can't say I know exactly what life is like for them right now, but it must be pretty awful. I don't mind paying more taxes in the future - I'm reconciled to that - for better public services and to help the very poorest people. In 2015 I voted Labour because of Cameron's cuts to welfare. Those cuts were not going to affect me or my family - but they were going to affect some very vinerable people.
But in paying higher taxes, I also want my family to be able to pay our own bills as well. As long as that can happen, I'm okay.0 -
Just shows what a good side Hampshire are. They played yorkshire with all the england stars and it took a double hunded for gary balance to save them. In the other game, hampshire chased 350 odd up in leeds. Weird that we played yorkshire twice after 4 games of the season.Nigelb said:
Lancashire getting utterly Bencoad.david_herdson said:Yes, the next prime minister could be a terrorist sympathiser, the next Home Secretary might be someone who wanted to close down MI5 and the next Chancellor might be a Marxist but life could be worse, I could be Lancastrian:
Lancs 48-6 vs Yorks.
#GiveUpPoliticsAndFollowCricket0 -
A picture radiating warmth and the common touch.Pulpstar said:Theresa May in Don Valley !
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/8706188594427207680 -
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That's true. Although I find it hard to not to see 80k as pretty well off, although it isn't top 1%.MyBurningEars said:
It's interesting that even people earning 80k don't always see themselves as particularly well off! Matter of perspective I suspsect. The fact that most people believe themselves to be roughly average, but that there are a lot of people who are "rich" a couple of pay grades above them, must make a non-specific "we''ll help out the average Joe by taxing 'the Rich'" a very tempting electoral slogan.The_Apocalypse said:
Well (see above) Corbynistas are now admitting that it won't just be the 'rich' who lose out under Corbyn which is basically what they've been telling people. It will be most of the country, because of how they see what 'rich' is and it's not 80k.0 -
Davey winning here !TheScreamingEagles said:We should all wait for JohnO's report from Kingston and Surbiton.
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0
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We might just have to disagree about most of that.Patrick said:David I'm not trolling about Davis. His pet issues are mostly to do with not letting the state become over-intrusive. I know many people want nannying but, even in a world with terrorists, there is a point at which government overreach does more harm than good. His flounce by-election and subsequent sacking by Dave were of a theme. As a PM he'd be dull, solid, Brexity, right about most things, able to communicate and rip Corbyn a new one. He'd be very safe. He can talk human.
I agree with him (and you?) on state intrusion and civil liberties but that is very much a fringe concern: to the extent that they do think about it, most people want more surveillance because it doesn't affect them directly and they think it will help. But it's not jobs, schools, hospitals or pensions.
But you're talking about issues; my point was about party and government management. Davis is temperamentally unsuited to leading a broadly-based government. He is probably well-placed at present and could make a good Home Secretary but PM and party leader? No. Cameron was the right choice at the time.0 -
I thought at the time of the referendum that Theresa May was playing a blinder by being half-hearted and lacklustre in her campaigning support for the PM. Absolute genius, I thought, to remain ostensibly loyal whilst also being incredibly bland and invisible, thus not risking egg on her face if it all fell apart (as it did).Carolus_Rex said:
That was the Leave campaign. Theresa May campaigned (sort of) for Remain, so you can't hang that one on her.Chris_A said:
When the alternative is also a fantasist and a liar. £350m per week for the NHS? Anyone?ydoethur said:
They are being asked to vote for an apologist for serial killers who hangs out with Holocaust Deniers, who is also a fantastist and liar.GideonWise said:
Interesting anecdata. But the message that people are more motivated to get out and vote to stop a landslide than they are if their man has a chance to win? That sounds rather bizarre.Scott_P said:@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
I can see why the only reason they would vote for him is if they thought the alternative was the utter destruction of the Labour Party.
With regard to canvass returns I wonder if the problem might be people are saying one thing on the doorsteps and another on the net/phones. That could explain it.
Now I realise it wasn't a tactic, it was just her natural campaigning style.0 -
Well, now I'm confused as hell. If there's as much trouble as the polls predict, what on Earth is she doing spending time in Caroline Flint's constituency?Pulpstar said:Theresa May in Don Valley !
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/870618859442720768
Perhaps the "crap campaign" we've been banging on about isn't restricted in its crapness to the manifesto and May, perhaps it's crap targeting as well.
WillS0 -
So Theresa is in a seat, which looks highly unlikely according to the latest polls while Corbyn was in equally unlikely South Basildon yesterday.Pulpstar said:Theresa May in Don Valley !
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/870618859442720768
If you look at what Electoral Calculus are predicting both leaders should be in seats like
Gedling
Edgbaston
Hove
Chorley
Cardiff N
Copeland
Plymouth Sutton
Wakefield
Ealing C
Vale of Clwyd
These are all predicted to be within 300 votes0 -
Thats why he lost easily no USPSlackbladder said:
EdM is nigh on a tory compared with Corbyn and McDonnell.Pulpstar said:I was intensely relaxed about EdMPM. Not this one !
As someone said downthread Lab has taken its base for granted for years.
That is one attitude that TM definitely has nicked this time.
Jezza is on the Core Voters side Bigtime
Despite all that he will lose under FPTP0 -
She has actually lost it. We are seeing a leader go mad before our very eyes.Slackbladder said:
Maybe May is just playing a rope-a-dope strategy, and it'll all work out. Who the f*** knows.Pulpstar said:Theresa May in Don Valley !
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/8706188594427207680 -
Nah.wills66 said:
Well, now I'm confused as hell. If there's as much trouble as the polls predict, what on Earth is she doing spending time in Caroline Flint's constituency?Pulpstar said:Theresa May in Don Valley !
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/870618859442720768
Perhaps the "crap campaign" we've been banging on about isn't restricted in its crapness to the manifesto and May, perhaps it's crap targeting as well.
WillS
The Tory candidate in Don Valley is awesome and all round good egg.0 -
Weird but true - John Denham was more popular than Alan Whitehead. I still know the southampton itchen candidate from 2015, Rowenna Mason, really nice person and totally genuine. That was the worse result for me in 2015 as she could easily have been a conservative mp but just chose the wrong side.TravelJunkie said:
Where have you campaigned in southampton test?Casino_Royale said:
Dunno. If CCHQ analysis is any good, the bits that might swing.TravelJunkie said:
I grew up in southampton itchen. Are you campaigning heavily around shirley? hill lane and portswood or are you going to the dives of redbridge bevois valley?Casino_Royale said:
I just got off the phone to Southampton Test candidate, but not revealing what he told me publicly.HYUFD said:
Down there tomorrow.
Put it this way: I think i am going to the right place, but it's a big ask for the Tories to take it.
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On twitter many Corbyn supporters genuinely believe that it'll be those on 80k who will 'pay' for all of the things in the manifesto. They've even been mocking those on 35k for not voting Corbyn, saying that they won't be taxed so why are they worried.rkrkrk said:
To be fair - maybe these people realise they might be personally made worse off but think that's a price worth paying for a more equal society, avoiding an NHS collapse, properly funded schools etc..?MyBurningEars said:
I do wonder how many people who do vote for Corbyn actually realise where they are on the net beneficiary/net payer divide of his policies! Young professional graduates in the private sector in particular (in the public sector, pay rises might more than cancel out tax rises) may feel squeezed right now, but most people misjudge how they stand compared to UK averages because of their social and work circle. How many of them socialise with people from the C2DE bracket? I know there's been extensive research on this, but would be glad if someone could give me a pointer. It has been pointed out rather tritely that e.g. the Occupy Movement (led largely by middle-class students) was essentially the 10% being envious of the 1%, or even the 1% of the 0.1%. I think that's one of those harsh judgements that has an element of truth to it.rkrkrk said:
Looking at the manifestos:
If you're in public sector - Corbyn will likely mean higher pay. Probably not much higher.
Tories will reduce your income tax a tiny amount (think I saw 33 pounds a year quoted by IFS).
Unclear what the impact of Corbyn corporation tax rise will be - but very unlikely it will be restricted to just the top 5% of earners. Presumably you use the NHS which Corbyn will provide more funding to (and IMO really does need it).
Tories haven't ruled out tax increases - and Labour may have to break their promise to restrict them to those in the top 5%....
Guess it depends who you trust more!
The posh girls in Bobajob's office spring to mind. Richard Nabavi posted an even more extreme example a few days ago - which suggests even people earning 100k+ might believe that Corbyn will somehow get the money from "making sure corporations pay their taxes" and "taxing seriously highly paid people".
As you say, the Tories have not been clear either which negates a lot of their advantage here.0 -
But the fact that bond yields are historically low AND the fact that he deficit has narrowed a lot are not totally unrelated.RochdalePioneers said:Appreciate the positive feedback everyone. A couple more points:
Borrowing money at 0% (as governments now can) to invest in capex that pays a significant ROI is not bankrupting Britain, is not communism, its CAPITALISM and we need a return to some basic principles. People get that. A Labour manifesto promising a glut of investment to create jobs, with better pay, tax rises for me and not them, vs a Tory manifesto of no meals for kids and don't get old - is anyone really that surprised that the polls are moving as sharply as they are?
Corbyn could not just borrow many tens of billions more at today's rates.
Plus we are paying >£30bn a year in interest already. Soon we need to stop borrowing more each year.
We really, really do.
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