Saw a poll of those working in higher education. 50% voting Labour, next Lib Dems on around 25%, Tories at 7%.
How would the removal of tuition fees impact on the financing of HE? Would be a bit of a shock to the system to implement in around 3-months.
As one of the 7%, I think it's safe to say that most of my colleagues don't really think that a Labour government is possible.
In a way, it would't make much immediate difference, in that the Government stands behinds the loan system anyway so as long as they continued to do that then things would carry on as they are. I don't know, but doubt whether the loans liability count towards public borrowing figures or not. If they don't, then they obviously would in the future if the government directly replaced loans with a block grant and then we will see how long the government could and would maintain funding at the current level.
How did we get to a situation where the percentage of Conservative supporters in academia is only about one-sixth of the wider population?
I suspect there are rather more but one has to keep one's head down, or rather there's little point in not doing so as there's mostly incomprehension when it is revealed. The analogy I used last year as a Brexiteer in Cambridge was that it was a bit like what being gay in the 1950s must have been (though without the compulsory sterilisation!). There were others in the same position but you had to speak very carefully before you worked out that you were on the same side & could talk freely. It is a bit like that as a Tory.
You mean there are any Tories in academia...I never met one ;-) do you have a secret handshake or something?
NO UKIP are finished PRECISELY because May is pursuing the free movement controls and regained sovereignty every poll shows Tory voters want, any big concessions by the Tories on payments to the EU will see UKIP make a swifter revival than Lazarus, May or no May
I think you need to remember that Nigel Farage captured and channeled anger at Brussels and the status quo like no other party leader before or since. The Lord Nuttall does not have his passion, or his intelligence. (He's also a complete fantasist.) Under Nuttall, I think they would struggle to perform under any scenario except an absolute about U-turn.
Kermit the Frog could lead UKIP and they would poll 20 to 25% if the Tories leave free movement uncontrolled and agree huge payments to the EU
I think it's a bit more subtle than that. If EFTA/EEA is sold as a transitional arrangement to the British people then I doubt they would be more than 10%. If that was combined with compulsory health insurance - as is required for foreigners in Switzerland where it costs more than £2,000 a year - it would probably be more like 6-7%.
The basic package is 400 CHF per month, about £4k per year. The only £2k packages available are to young people and the unemployed who get it subsidised.
Interesting and understood. Makes me even happier in my Spanish retirement where my Teacher's pension would no doubt fall again with the £ following a hung parliament or worse but I have a very large savings buffer well away from McDonnell's grasping hands so like most comfortably off I will be ok. However, the masses will be massively let down by a Corbyn government - most of us over 60 know that this is a script which ends with the IMF and austerity on a big scale - see Greece for details.
I wonder when the British will learn to live within their means - it is very sad that the literature which gave us Micawber is so little read and understood by our over-indulged children.
Care to bet on whether the IMF will be called in (assuming a Corbyn PM)? 20 quid to a charity of your choice/my choice says they won't...
Sorry - one important reason why I'm so comfortably off is that I don't gamble on sites like this. long-term blue chips keeps jack a happy lad. I think it will end very badly though - it is what left-wing Labour do. Yes I know they want to raise taxes on companies and the rich to pay for all of it but that is another script we all know the end of. I wonder how many companies will stay post -Brexit if corporation tax shoots up.
So, you're saying you're comfortably off because you're mostly wrong about things?
not really a punter, but wondering if there is an angle on turnout on this election. Corbyn certainly seems to have energised his base, which should in turn energise Tory voters as the polls narrow,
i think the problem is that May isn't energising Tories at all at the moment. Compared with Cameron it's night and day.
I would have thought the prospect of Corbyn would be all the energising that Tory voters would need.
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
As someone said earlier it's becoming more and more difficult to get a representative polling sample. The number of adjustments the companies have to make these days is almost mind-boggling.
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if U says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
If the Tory en Tories really will have something to worry about!!
FFS, man, look at the polls. UKIP are finished. If voters were that fussed about Freedom of Movement, why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?
There is a seted with that outcome.
"why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?"
They're probably not if past opinion polling accuracy is anything to go by
Because the Tory party has said it's going to steal their houses. That policy is absolutely toxic in middle England. A man's (or woman's) home is his castle, the Tories have threatened it. It's literally the worst policy I've ever come across.
As you and I agreed, on here, the day the manifesto was launched, to the derision of most PB Tories. That was when the Tory lead began to crumble.
Note here, the timing of the sudden fall in TMay's ratings. When it all began to go wrong. Around the 18th of May: the day they launched the manifesto
We could be looking at a country more horribly divided young against old than it seemed it would be Brexit against remain. If this is close, there will be huge ill feeling on both sides. Brexiteers will be livid if it's a HP.
Brexit largely WAS young against old.
this election could be the revenge of the young against the old for voting brexit
I was just thinking exactly the same thing. Dangerous inter-generational stuff if true.
Wait a few years and it will mostly sort itself. The young have time on their side.
It won't. It will get worse. People in my age group are struggling, I don't see how that will change for the foreseeable future. I'm living with my mum right now after uni because even renting right now is a difficulty, let alone buying a house.
I think for the young they might be about to discover the twin joys of very high inflation and rapidly growing unemployment - both at the same time
Unless TMay miraculously gets a big majority, the EU will now push their extreme and costly Brexit even harder, hoping that a weakened TMay either agrees to a terrible deal, or is toppled by a leader who will accept EFTA/EEA status, where we still pay something, and have no say in the laws, but we get Single Market access.
You mean Brexit might be a bit shit?
If only someone had said that beforehand...
It would need someone who understood that "spamming PB with an occasional retweet" and "saying something" are two different activities.
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
Interesting anecdata. But the message that people are more motivated to get out and vote to stop a landslide than they are if their man has a chance to win? That sounds rather bizarre.
They are being asked to vote for an apologist for serial killers who hangs out with Holocaust Deniers, who is also a fantastist and liar.
I can see why the only reason they would vote for him is if they thought the alternative was the utter destruction of the Labour Party.
With regard to canvass returns I wonder if the problem might be people are saying one thing on the doorsteps and another on the net/phones. That could explain it.
For how long does "reality" have to mean the richest in society getting ever wealthier while the vast majority 'just about manage', and some get totally left behind?
Until the gap between the top 1% and the rest starts to close up, we're moving in the *wrong direction*. The turnaround isn't going to be made under a Tory government, fresh thinking is needed. Corbyn isn't perfect but he's at least asking the right questions.
I am not part of the 'richest' in society. I earn under 25k, and my mum earns just over 25k. I do not see how Corbynism would mean a better life for me and my family.
25k is an interesting point of comparison. For early career graduate work, that's probably in the ball-park for "decent pay". When compared to folk on PB who seem to enjoy a good brag about their wages (not just the PB righties who boast of their millions or the amount of money they won't get out of bed for, but I've seen a few lefties very keen to broadcast they are higher rate tax payers or paid off their student debt in double-quick time!) it feels pretty poor. But that's comparative, and probably the wrong comparison.
25k is well above minimum wage, and especially well above the combination of minimum wage with part-time hours. And the poorest workers in society will be getting by on much less.
So while it's true that neither you nor your mum are among the very highest-earning in society (though I hope your income has a lot of room on the upside as your career progresses!) it is on the upper side of the middle, well above the central "hump" of the modal income. In that sense, you or your family may just about be in that "better-off" bracket who we might reasonably expect Corbyn's plans to penalise at the expense of gains for the very low income...
Looking at the manifestos:
If you're in public sector - Corbyn will likely mean higher pay. Probably not much higher. Tories will reduce your income tax a tiny amount (think I saw 33 pounds a year quoted by IFS).
Unclear what the impact of Corbyn corporation tax rise will be - but very unlikely it will be restricted to just the top 5% of earners. Presumably you use the NHS which Corbyn will provide more funding to (and IMO really does need it).
Tories haven't ruled out tax increases - and Labour may have to break their promise to restrict them to those in the top 5%....
For how long does "reality" have to mean the richest in society getting ever wealthier while the vast majority 'just about manage', and some get totally left behind?
Until the gap between the top 1% and the rest starts to close up, we're moving in the *wrong direction*. The turnaround isn't going to be made under a Tory government, fresh thinking is needed. Corbyn isn't perfect but he's at least asking the right questions.
I am not part of the 'richest' in society. I earn under 25k, and my mum earns just over 25k. I do not see how Corbynism would mean a better life for me and my family.
25k is an interesting point of comparison. For early career graduate work, that's probably in the ball-park for "decent pay". When compared to folk on PB who seem to enjoy a good brag about their wages (not just the PB righties who boast of their millions or the amount of money they won't get out of bed for, but I've seen a few lefties very keen to broadcast they are higher rate tax payers or paid off their student debt in double-quick time!) it feels pretty poor. But that's comparative, and probably the wrong comparison.
25k is well above minimum wage, and especially well above the combination of minimum wage with part-time hours. And the poorest workers in society will be getting by on much less.
So while it's true that neither you nor your mum are among the very highest-earning in society (though I hope your income has a lot of room on the upside as your career progresses!) it is on the upper side of the middle, well above the central "hump" of the modal income. In that sense, you or your family may just about be in that "better-off" bracket who we might reasonably expect Corbyn's plans to penalise at the expense of gains for the very low income...
You seem to have misread my post. I earn under 25k, not 25k so measuring that in terms of graduate salary seems rather odd. It's my Mum who earns just over that.
The average salary is around 27k in this country, and Corbynistas have said that they are only going to penalise the 'rich' not anyone near the average salary.
Artifically high property prices and rents distort everything else.
But in most cases the parents who say "my kids can't afford a house" also think "my house is a great nest egg". They can't have both.
I'd love house prices to flatline for about 30 years.
Yes. It would be a good idea.
Some people abroad (Canada / US / NZ) have started a "Tiny House" movement where couples or singles can buy a fancy bedsit for an affordable price. Search it on YouTube - it is interesting what people have done and I cannot help wondering if something like it could be the answer to deflating the property bubble.
I have not been moved to comment on this blog for several years now, but the current circumstances are simply too exceptional to ignore. As a lifelong Conservative, the events of the past fortnight have been painful to watch. Nick Timothy and the brain trust behind the Social Care policy are going to have a lot of explaining to do in 7 days time, no matter the result as it seems clear that, barring another massive polling failure, we are not going to get the historic landslide that seemed to be within our reach when the election was called. I think the best we can hope for now is a respectable working majority.
I have a lot of respect for Theresa May, I like her temperament and her style, but she has seemingly fallen into the same trap as other top level politicians in allowing herself to become beholden to a tight and closed circle of advisors who really aren't as well connected to the Great British public as they think. As TSE has already said, her reputation is likely to emerge from this shemozzle with significant damage, and it is just possible she may lose! I certainly hope not but, by God, how the mighty have fallen!
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if U says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
If the Tory en Tories really will have something to worry about!!
FFS, man, look at the polls. UKIP are finished. If voters were that fussed about Freedom of Movement, why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?
There is a seted with that outcome.
"why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?"
They're probably not if past opinion polling accuracy is anything to go by
Because the Tory party has said it's going to steal their houses. That policy is absolutely toxic in middle England. A man's (or woman's) home is his castle, the Tories have threatened it. It's literally the worst policy I've ever come across.
As you and I agreed, on here, the day the manifesto was launched, to the derision of most PB Tories. That was when the Tory lead began to crumble.
Note here, the timing of the sudden fall in TMay's ratings. When it all began to go wrong. Around the 18th of May: the day they launched the manifesto
Yes, it's an odd one as well since in ideological terms the Tories would surely be the last party to attack property rights. I think the problem is that Theresa and Nick Timothy are more SDP than Tory. No true Conservative would mount an attack on property rights like that, it's not in our nature. Every proper Tory on here was questioning the policy on the night (TSE, DavidL, JohnO and a few others seemed less than impressed as well) it's only May's band of cheerleaders who supported it.
It's been the most fantastic shift seeing the Corbyn campaign at the outset talking about their end strategy of maintaining the leadership of the party to now genuinely thinking they can bring down May...
Yes, but what happens if they still lose by a huge margin?
Or to put it in context, the polls are worse for Labour now than they were for much of the 1979 election when several put them ahead (although there were many put them behind as well) and almost all had Callaghan as the most popular leader. Not one poll in over a year has put Labour in the lead. As for Corbyn's leadership ratings, despite the hysteria and the genuine decline in may's personal ratings, his are still worse. The last election for which those are both true is I think 1983 (not sure about 1987, but think Labour were leading about 6 months before). If we add Labour in it's 2001. Think about the implications of that.
This is more significant as in 1979 (a) they were expected to lose and (b) were in government and had more room to control the campaign.
Which is why I wonder what will happen if Labour still get shattered. How horrendous might the reaction be?
Edit - no, Labour had a dip in the polls in September 2000 after the fuel strike didn't they? 1997's the comparison.
If the electoral arithmetic returns to its pre 2015 status , Labour will not need to be ahead of the Conservatives to stop a Conservative overall majority .
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
Interesting anecdata. But the message that people are more motivated to get out and vote to stop a landslide than they are if their man has a chance to win? That sounds rather bizarre.
They are being asked to vote for an apologist for serial killers who hangs out with Holocaust Deniers, who is also a fantastist and liar.
I can see why the only reason they would vote for him is if they thought the alternative was the utter destruction of the Labour Party.
With regard to canvass returns I wonder if the problem might be people are saying one thing on the doorsteps and another on the net/phones. That could explain it.
But we are led to believe that Jim messina has the most advanced polling and analytics. I would think if the canvas returns don't match he would know.
It's been the most fantastic shift seeing the Corbyn campaign at the outset talking about their end strategy of maintaining the leadership of the party to now genuinely thinking they can bring down May...
Yes, but what happens if they still lose by a huge margin?
Or to put it in context, the polls are worse for Labour now than they were for much of the 1979 election when several put them ahead (although there were many put them behind as well) and almost all had Callaghan as the most popular leader. Not one poll in over a year has put Labour in the lead. As for Corbyn's leadership ratings, despite the hysteria and the genuine decline in may's personal ratings, his are still worse. The last election for which those are both true is I think 1983 (not sure about 1987, but think Labour were leading about 6 months before). If we add Labour in it's 2001. Think about the implications of that.
This is more significant as in 1979 (a) they were expected to lose and (b) were in government and had more room to control the campaign.
Which is why I wonder what will happen if Labour still get shattered. How horrendous might the reaction be?
Edit - no, Labour had a dip in the polls in September 2000 after the fuel strike didn't they? 1997's the comparison.
If the electoral arithmetic returns to its pre 2015 status , Labour will not need to be ahead of the Conservatives to stop a Conservative overall majority .
What is amazing is that May's natural reaction to all this is NOT to come out swinging (in the boxing sense rather than in the wife-swapping sense).
I cannot think of another British PM for whom that would have been true. Brown was pugnacious in 2010. Major took to his soapbox when it was looking dodgy in 1992 and again when he was clearly going down in 1997. Thatcher, Blair, Callaghan, Wilson... all faced hard elections by jamming in the gum-shield and punching as hard as they could. It's always been fight rather than flight when the going gets tough. Maybe she's a genius and will prove us all wrong through masterful inaction... but it doesn't look good.
Interestingly 2015 the Tories got worries by the narrowing polls (despite their private polls still looking good) and the reaction was to send out Cameron, roll his sleeves up with his no money left note and go town to town.
Yes, Dave really was in another league compared to May. His multiple interventions at the debates etc... definitely helped the party.
Who can forget his hastily called press conferences inc one outside no10 before the Referendum?
NO UKIP are finished PRECISELY because May is pursuing the free movement controls and regained sovereignty every poll shows Tory voters want, any big concessions by the Tories on payments to the EU will see UKIP make a swifter revival than Lazarus, May or no May
I think you need to remember that Nigel Farage captured and channeled anger at Brussels and the status quo like no other party leader before or since. The Lord Nuttall does not have his passion, or his intelligence. (He's also a complete fantasist.) Under Nuttall, I think they would struggle to perform under any scenario except an absolute about U-turn.
Kermit the Frog could lead UKIP and they would poll 20 to 25% if the Tories leave free movement uncontrolled and agree huge payments to the EU
I think it's a bit more subtle than that. If EFTA/EEA is sold as a transitional arrangement to the British people then I doubt they would be more than 10%. If that was combined with compulsory health insurance - as is required for foreigners in Switzerland where it costs more than £2,000 a year - it would probably be more like 6-7%.
The basic package is 400 CHF per month, about £4k per year. The only £2k packages available are to young people and the unemployed who get it subsidised.
And IIRC only Swiss citizens get it subsidised, not immigrants.
So it would cost someone without a job nearly £400/month to be in Switzerland before any other costs. That's a real disincentive for low skilled immigrants who aren't - say - working for a Swiss private bank.
Also worth noting that Tezza and Jezza are mostly irrelevant in Scotland
It's Nicola v Ruth
I agree with you, but it is kind of weird in that neither of them are standing and, while Sturgeon would doubtless be influential in any SNP strategy in Westminster, it's not like Davidson will be wielding a separate Scottish Tory whip.
Artifically high property prices and rents distort everything else.
But in most cases the parents who say "my kids can't afford a house" also think "my house is a great nest egg". They can't have both.
I'd love house prices to flatline for about 30 years.
I think gently falling prices for 5-7 years would be wonderful for everyone.
I only picked flatline because then people think "I haven't lost anything" the average punter does not think much about inflation, depreciation and so on. But we could do with a very large and sustained drop of house prices to incomes.
Interesting and understood. Makes me even happier in my Spanish retirement where my Teacher's pension would no doubt fall again with the £ following a hung parliament or worse but I have a very large savings buffer well away from McDonnell's grasping hands so like most comfortably off I will be ok. However, the masses will be massively let down by a Corbyn government - most of us over 60 know that this is a script which ends with the IMF and austerity on a big scale - see Greece for details.
I wonder when the British will learn to live within their means - it is very sad that the literature which gave us Micawber is so little read and understood by our over-indulged children.
Care to bet on whether the IMF will be called in (assuming a Corbyn PM)? 20 quid to a charity of your choice/my choice says they won't...
Sorry - one important reason why I'm so comfortably off is that I don't gamble on sites like this. long-term blue chips keeps jack a happy lad. I think it will end very badly though - it is what left-wing Labour do. Yes I know they want to raise taxes on companies and the rich to pay for all of it but that is another script we all know the end of. I wonder how many companies will stay post -Brexit if corporation tax shoots up.
*shoots up to remain the lowest in the G7.
It's just a donation to a charity. If I won, I'd pick UNICEF who do good work. But your call.
Not just politically easier but more sensible - I mean how much research and proper brain-hours from people who understanding this very complex area can have gone into the policy?
Well the election has arrived in Skip&Rip today. Previously just a Green leaflet (which Wor Lass insisted on putting up in the window to rival my Labour poster), but today's post contained mailshots from Labour, Conservative....and the Yorkshire Party. By fortunate coincidence, today is the day that our recycling bin gets emptied.
Artifically high property prices and rents distort everything else.
But in most cases the parents who say "my kids can't afford a house" also think "my house is a great nest egg". They can't have both.
I'd love house prices to flatline for about 30 years.
I think gently falling prices for 5-7 years would be wonderful for everyone.
Not nominal falls because that would put people in negative equity, with an impact on mobility. But real falls, I agree, would be good.
It also obviously wouldn't be good for people who have decided to buy for investment rather than for a place to live. But, y'know, screw 'em.
Yes a real terms fall or cash freeze for 5-7 years is what I mean. Even a nominal 1% annual drop would work wonders for first time buyers and would only really screw the parasite landlords.
Well she's stuck with it. No way she can bail out of this one as well and have a milligram of credibility left.
She'll be OK. People have swung from thinking she's Boadicea to thinking she's hopeless, and to be fair neither is true. She'll play it safe and calmly. Whether that will be enough is another matter.
This is true. If she wins comfortably she'll look the coolest cat in the world of politics. She can shrug her shoulders at everyone on PB and say "what were you worried about?" At no point so far has May seemed panicked. Repetitive, dull and uninspiring yes, but never a bedwetter.
Not just politically easier but more sensible - I mean how much research and proper brain-hours from people who understanding this very complex area can have gone into the policy?
Probably about an hour of Google and Excel.
That's how labour developed it's policing policy....
Artifically high property prices and rents distort everything else.
But in most cases the parents who say "my kids can't afford a house" also think "my house is a great nest egg". They can't have both.
I'd love house prices to flatline for about 30 years.
I think gently falling prices for 5-7 years would be wonderful for everyone.
Can only see stagnation whilst the BOE pursue QE and a zero interest rate policy. Falls will be reserved for when the cost of borrowing starts to rise.
Cue: Corbyn Government / McDonnell maxing out the countries cards.
Saw a poll of those working in higher education. 50% voting Labour, next Lib Dems on around 25%, Tories at 7%.
How would the removal of tuition fees impact on the financing of HE? Would be a bit of a shock to the system to implement in around 3-months.
As one of the 7%, I think it's safe to say that most of my colleagues don't really think that a Labour government is possible.
In a way, it would't make much immediate difference, in that the Government stands behinds the loan system anyway so as long as they continued to do that then things would carry on as they are. I don't know, but doubt whether the loans liability count towards public borrowing figures or not. If they don't, then they obviously would in the future if the government directly replaced loans with a block grant and then we will see how long the government could and would maintain funding at the current level.
How did we get to a situation where the percentage of Conservative supporters in academia is only about one-sixth of the wider population?
I suspect there are rather more but one has to keep one's head down, or rather there's little point in not doing so as there's mostly incomprehension when it is revealed. The analogy I used last year as a Brexiteer in Cambridge was that it was a bit like what being gay in the 1950s must have been (though without the compulsory sterilisation!). There were others in the same position but you had to speak very carefully before you worked out that you were on the same side & could talk freely. It is a bit like that as a Tory.
You mean there are any Tories in academia...I never met one ;-) do you have a secret handshake or A something?
Yep, pretty much! We are then able to meet up and eat babies in peace!
@PCollinsTimes: Reports back from the ground are that nobody campaigning has seen a dramatic change. Yet the polls seem to suggest there is.
@PCollinsTimes: People are citing the reports as conclusive evidence that the polls are wrong. Yet that does not follow. Both things can be true.
@PCollinsTimes: There has not been a very dramatic shift. The people making the polls move always liked Corbyn. It's about whether they vote.
@PCollinsTimes: So the two events are compatible. The electorate hasn't changed its mind. It's changed in size. If it has changed.
Shift on the ground on Teesside:
START OF CAMPAIGN: Assumed Darlington and MSEC were Tory gains. Firewall defence of Stockton North and Hartlepool planned, wobbles about Redcar.
NOW: Teams in Darlington and MSEC feeling positive. Stockton North and Hartlepool stable. Stockton South "Labour ahead" poll eye-opening but not absurd.
So having assumed we'd lose at least 2 seats to the Tories and 5 at risk, its now 2 at risk, the others feel safe and the long-written off back into play. And whats driving it from the door knocking sessions I have led are non-voters and won't say last time going Labour this time, and 2 adults Labour kids won't vote last time becoming 4 Labour this time.
It'll all be about turnout...
Even I can feel the pull of Corbynism. The idea that lots of things could be free and that someone else will be forced to pay for them is very alluring if you're not a member of the top 10% as most of us aren't.
It's been the most fantastic shift seeing the Corbyn campaign at the outset talking about their end strategy of maintaining the leadership of the party to now genuinely thinking they can bring down May...
Yes, but what happens if they still lose by a huge margin?
Or to put it in context, the polls are worse for Labour now than they were for much of the 1979 election when several put them ahead (although there were many put them behind as well) and almost all had Callaghan as the most popular leader. Not one poll in over a year has put Labour in the lead. As for Corbyn's leadership ratings, despite the hysteria and the genuine decline in may's personal ratings, his are still worse. The last election for which those are both true is I think 1983 (not sure about 1987, but think Labour were leading about 6 months before). If we add Labour in it's 2001. Think about the implications of that.
This is more significant as in 1979 (a) they were expected to lose and (b) were in government and had more room to control the campaign.
Which is why I wonder what will happen if Labour still get shattered. How horrendous might the reaction be?
Edit - no, Labour had a dip in the polls in September 2000 after the fuel strike didn't they? 1997's the comparison.
If the electoral arithmetic returns to its pre 2015 status , Labour will not need to be ahead of the Conservatives to stop a Conservative overall majority .
NO UKIP are finished PRECISELY because May is pursuing the free movement controls
This is nonsense because very few people, least of all UKIP supporters, believe she really cares about reducing immigration. She only cares about looking like she does.
UKIP are finished because of the Brexit result, and whatever happens from here they are not coming back.
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
As someone said earlier it's becoming more and more difficult to get a representative polling sample. The number of adjustments the companies have to make these days is almost mind-boggling.
It's just possible that quite a large chunk of that fat Tory warchest is being poured into some really top quality stratified random sample polling, which is telling them something rather different to the horseshit self-selected pool sample stuff that appears in the papers.
It's been the most fantastic shift seeing the Corbyn campaign at the outset talking about their end strategy of maintaining the leadership of the party to now genuinely thinking they can bring down May...
Yes, but what happens if they still lose by a huge margin?
Or to put it in context, the polls are worse for Labour now than they were for much of the 1979 election when several put them ahead (although there were many put them behind as well) and almost all had Callaghan as the most popular leader. Not one poll in over a year has put Labour in the lead. As for Corbyn's leadership ratings, despite the hysteria and the genuine decline in may's personal ratings, his are still worse. The last election for which those are both true is I think 1983 (not sure about 1987, but think Labour were leading about 6 months before). If we add Labour in it's 2001. Think about the implications of that.
This is more significant as in 1979 (a) they were expected to lose and (b) were in government and had more room to control the campaign.
Which is why I wonder what will happen if Labour still get shattered. How horrendous might the reaction be?
Edit - no, Labour had a dip in the polls in September 2000 after the fuel strike didn't they? 1997's the comparison.
If the electoral arithmetic returns to its pre 2015 status , Labour will not need to be ahead of the Conservatives to stop a Conservative overall majority .
Saw a poll of those working in higher education. 50% voting Labour, next Lib Dems on around 25%, Tories at 7%.
How would the removal of tuition fees impact on the financing of HE? Would be a bit of a shock to the system to implement in around 3-months.
As one of the 7%, I think it's safe to say that most of my colleagues don't really think that a Labour government is possible.
In a way, it would't make much immediate difference, in that the Government stands behinds the loan system anyway so as long as they continued to do that then things would carry on as they are. I don't know, but doubt whether the loans liability count towards public borrowing figures or not. If they don't, then they obviously would in the future if the government directly replaced loans with a block grant and then we will see how long the government could and would maintain funding at the current level.
How did we get to a situation where the percentage of Conservative supporters in academia is only about one-sixth of the wider population?
I suspect there are rather more but one has to keep one's head down, or rather there's little point in not doing so as there's mostly incomprehension when it is revealed. The analogy I used last year as a Brexiteer in Cambridge was that it was a bit like what being gay in the 1950s must have been (though without the compulsory sterilisation!). There were others in the same position but you had to speak very carefully before you worked out that you were on the same side & could talk freely. It is a bit like that as a Tory.
You mean there are any Tories in academia...I never met one ;-) do you have a secret handshake or A something?
Yep, pretty much! We are then able to meet up and eat babies in peace!
Do you book places under the guise of table top gaming or LARPing to through people of the scent?
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if U says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
If the Tory en Tories really will have something to worry about!!
FFS, man, look at the polls. UKIP are finished. If voters were that fussed about Freedom of Movement, why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?
There is a seted with that outcome.
"why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?"
They're probably not if past opinion polling accuracy is anything to go by
Because the Tory party has said it's going to steal their houses. That policy is absolutely toxic in middle England. A man's (or woman's) home is his castle, the Tories have threatened it. It's literally the worst policy I've ever come across.
As you and I agreed, on here, the day the manifesto was launched, to the derision of most PB Tories. That was when the Tory lead began to crumble.
Note here, the timing of the sudden fall in TMay's ratings. When it all began to go wrong. Around the 18th of May: the day they launched the manifesto
Yes, it's an odd one as well since in ideological terms the Tories would surely be the last party to attack property rights. I think the problem is that Theresa and Nick Timothy are more SDP than Tory. No true Conservative would mount an attack on property rights like that, it's not in our nature. Every proper Tory on here was questioning the policy on the night (TSE, DavidL, JohnO and a few others seemed less than impressed as well) it's only May's band of cheerleaders who supported it.
That's true and not true. I think people supported the 'idea' of tackling the need for increased support for social care. It was facing up to the funding needed.
But it was just done in a rubbish way and communicated awfully.
What is amazing is that May's natural reaction to all this is NOT to come out swinging (in the boxing sense rather than in the wife-swapping sense).
I cannot think of another British PM for whom that would have been true. Brown was pugnacious in 2010. Major took to his soapbox when it was looking dodgy in 1992 and again when he was clearly going down in 1997. Thatcher, Blair, Callaghan, Wilson... all faced hard elections by jamming in the gum-shield and punching as hard as they could. It's always been fight rather than flight when the going gets tough. Maybe she's a genius and will prove us all wrong through masterful inaction... but it doesn't look good.
Interestingly 2015 the Tories got worries by the narrowing polls (despite their private polls still looking good) and the reaction was to send out Cameron, roll his sleeves up with his no money left note and go town to town.
Yes, Dave really was in another league compared to May. His multiple interventions at the debates etc... definitely helped the party.
Who can forget his hastily called press conferences inc one outside no10 before the Referendum?
Game changers!
Leave would have won by a bigger margin without Dave tbh. He was the glue holding all those dickheads together.
Appreciate the positive feedback everyone. A couple more points:
1. Corbyn isn't well liked. He is adored by the disaffected and angry. He is despised by the right and their fellow travellers AND the Blairite faction in Labour. And is A Politician to the majority in the middle who try and avoid politics as much as possible. Yes the media have slammed Corbyn endlessly, but thats just wallpaper for the people who don't care about politics. Shocking as it may be the first proper exposure that millions of punters have had to both May and Corbyn is this campaign. And then some of you seem agog that its going as it is
2. This election like all elections offers a simple choice. A tory government. Or a Labour government. As South Park put it a Giant Douche or a Turd Sandwich. Ordinarily a placid populace - the one bred by 40 years of hard work by the establishment - people would say "none of them" and not vote. But not now. They can't afford not to vote. They're fed up and angry and like Howard Beale they're mad as hell and they're not going to take it any more.
So presented with Douche vs Turd the question is who is the least palatable. And for so many voters on so many levels that is Corbyn. Not that Corbyn is good. But May is worse. The 3. The economy. People aren't entirely as stupid as the right think they are. They understand capitalism. Invest and get a return on that investment. They want to work and be rewarded for that work and have the cash left over to buy stuff. Work doesn't pay for increasing numbers of people, and that is a system that is very broken. Borrowing money at 0% (as governments now can) to invest in capex that pays a significant ROI is not bankrupting Britain, is not communism, its CAPITALISM and we need a return to some basic principles. People get that. A Labour manifesto promising a glut of investment to create jobs, with better pay, tax rises for me and not them, vs a Tory manifesto of no meals for kids and don't get old - is anyone really that surprised that the polls are moving as sharply as they are?
Yes good points I am surprised thought it was a forgone conclusion .However the right wing press must be loosing their potency .My father a Conservative Daily Mail reader does not trust May anymore especially over the taking your house policy.He is not voting he says.Taking you core vote for granted can be dangerous thinking.New Labour thought the same .
An interesting side-effect of all this is that, if the May majority is modest or non-existent, I cannot see there being another General Election now where the PM (or other leader) ducks out of a TV debate.
Whilst it's certainly not the sole cause of May's problems, it certainly hasn't helped, and I am sure the mythology will build up around it to the effect that crying off is a terrible mistake and something you just don't do.
what is the best english speaking country to emigrate to?
Yorkshire.
Failing that, Canada?
Whats the feeling on the ground in Wakefield & Morley ?
Still quite positive, to be honest (talking Wakefield here: M&O became an independent Association once it had its own Conservative MP). We're still finding switchers direct from Labour and losing virtually none the other way. As far as I can tell, we're picking up the bulk of UKIP voters too.
I've heard positive things about the postal votes but would take that with a pinch of salt as it's at best third-hand information based on what can be seen through the backs of the papers.
Second hand anecdata from labour canvassers is that Mary Creagh's pro-Eu stance is the only bad feedback. They're increasingly confident.
Think it must be misplaced. A lot of leave voters would have to vote for one of the most Pro-Eu politicians in the country for her to save her seat.
Maybe this just isn't an election about Brexit?
Maybe, nationally. However if Brexit has any traction anywhere, it ought to be in a heavily pro-leave constituency where there' a two horse race, and one of them is a pro-EU ultra.
On the other hand, Labour have won the seat for the last 21 general elections. No Wakefieldian under the age of 87 has had anything other than a Labour MP. In many ways a tory win would be seismic.
Are we reaching a point where we can expect a Labour lead in a poll before Thursday? There could be one coming this weekend: just a gut feel.
Maybe, just because of statistical fluctuation. As far as the trend goes, it doesn't look as though Labour can go much higher unless the Tories fall. Judging by this poll, UKIP can't be squeezed much more, and the LD vote also seems fairly stable.
I think there could be a hung parliament if there are systematic errors in the polls (or the seat projections based on the polls). But otherwise it still looks like a Tory majority, doesn't it?
Yes, absolutely. If the current Tory share (a) is accurate, and (b) holds for another six days, they get a majority.
If my life was on the line to predict the right result, I would likely say tory win with a majority of around 80-100 seats than a hung parliament.
I would be very, very shocked with a hung parliament. I think the biggest concern is how long can theresa may survive because any tory with ambition could take her out now
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if U says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
If the Tory en Tories really will have something to worry about!!
FFS, man, look at the polls. UKIP are finished. If voters were that fussed about Freedom of Movement, why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?
There is a seted with that outcome.
"why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?"
They're probably not if past opinion polling accuracy is anything to go by
Because the Tory party has said it's going to steal their houses. That policy is absolutely toxic in middle England. A man's (or woman's) home is his castle, the Tories have threatened it. It's literally the worst policy I've ever come across.
As you and I agreed, on here, the day the manifesto was launched, to the derision of most PB Tories. That was when the Tory lead began to crumble.
Note here, the timing of the sudden fall in TMay's ratings. When it all began to go wrong. Around the 18th of May: the day they launched the manifesto
Yes, it's an odd one as well since in ideological terms the Tories would surely be the last party to attack property rights. I think the problem is that Theresa and Nick Timothy are more SDP than Tory. No true Conservative would mount an attack on property rights like that, it's not in our nature. Every proper Tory on here was questioning the policy on the night (TSE, DavidL, JohnO and a few others seemed less than impressed as well) it's only May's band of cheerleaders who supported it.
That's true and not true. I think people supported the 'idea' of tackling the need for increased support for social care. It was facing up to the funding needed.
But it was just done in a rubbish way and communicated awfully.
As I dead below, a much smarter policy would have been to limit the state pension to 1% rises for 5 years and use the savings to fully fund everyone's social care. Pensioners paying for their own care, no one would have said anything.
Appreciate the positive feedback everyone. A couple more points:
1. Corbyn isn't well liked. He is adored by the disaffected and angry. He is despised by the right and their fellow travellers AND the Blairite faction in Labour. And is A Politician to the majority in the middle who try and avoid politics as much as possible. Yes the media have slammed Corbyn endlessly, but thats just wallpaper for the people who don't care about politics. Shocking as it may be the first proper exposure that millions of punters have had to both May and Corbyn is this campaign. And then some of you seem agog that its going as it is
2. This election like all elections offers a simple choice. A tory government. Or a Labour government. As South Park put it a Giant Douche or a Turd Sandwich. Ordinarily a placid populace - the one bred by 40 years of hard work by the establishment - people would say "none of them" and not vote. But not now. They can't afford not to vote. They're fed up and angry and like Howard Beale they're mad as hell and they're not going to take it any more.
So presented with Douche vs Turd the question is who is the least palatable. And for so many voters on so many levels that is Corbyn. Not that Corbyn is good. But May is worse. The 3. The economy. People aren't entirely as stupid as the right think they are. They understand capitalism. Invest and get a return on that investment. They want to work and be rewarded for that work and have the cash left over to buy stuff. Work doesn't pay for increasing numbers of people, and that is a system that is very broken. Borrowing money at 0% (as governments now can) to invest in capex that pays a significant ROI is not bankrupting Britain, is not communism, its CAPITALISM and we need a return to some basic principles. People get that. A Labour manifesto promising a glut of investment to create jobs, with better pay, tax rises for me and not them, vs a Tory manifesto of no meals for kids and don't get old - is anyone really that surprised that the polls are moving as sharply as they are?
Yes good points I am surprised thought it was a forgone conclusion .However the right wing press must be loosing their potency .My father a Conservative Daily Mail reader does not trust May anymore especially over the taking your house policy.He is not voting he says.Taking you core vote for granted can be dangerous thinking.New Labour thought the same .
New Labour won 3 elections and May is making inroads into the white working class as much as Blair did with the middle class plus Labour will reverse the Tory IHT cuts
There is also an interesting Labour SNP propaganda tussle, though it's not clear which side is winning
The position seems to be the SNP are claiming they would prop up Labour (so you can vote for us without letting the Toreees in), but Labour are saying no deal and daring the SNP to vote against them (and with the Tories)
I think if the Tories think they are in trouble we will be seeing all hands to the pumps from tomorrow and full on buckets of shit all across the papers. That or they haven't got a fucking clue how to counteract the corbgasm.
@PCollinsTimes: Reports back from the ground are that nobody campaigning has seen a dramatic change. Yet the polls seem to suggest there is.
@PCollinsTimes: People are citing the reports as conclusive evidence that the polls are wrong. Yet that does not follow. Both things can be true.
@PCollinsTimes: There has not been a very dramatic shift. The people making the polls move always liked Corbyn. It's about whether they vote.
@PCollinsTimes: So the two events are compatible. The electorate hasn't changed its mind. It's changed in size. If it has changed.
Shift on the ground on Teesside:
START OF CAMPAIGN: Assumed Darlington and MSEC were Tory gains. Firewall defence of Stockton North and Hartlepool planned, wobbles about Redcar.
NOW: Teams in Darlington and MSEC feeling positive. Stockton North and Hartlepool stable. Stockton South "Labour ahead" poll eye-opening but not absurd.
So having assumed we'd lose at least 2 seats to the Tories and 5 at risk, its now 2 at risk, the others feel safe and the long-written off back into play. And whats driving it from the door knocking sessions I have led are non-voters and won't say last time going Labour this time, and 2 adults Labour kids won't vote last time becoming 4 Labour this time.
It'll all be about turnout...
Even I can feel the pull of Corbynism. The idea that lots of things could be free and that someone else will be forced to pay for them is very alluring if you're not a member of the top 10% as most of us aren't.
Well (see above) Corbynistas are now admitting that it won't just be the 'rich' who lose out under Corbyn which is basically what they've been telling people. It will be most of the country, because of how they see what 'rich' is and it's not 80k.
In 2015 all the polls after the final debate overestimated the share of the vote Lab+LD+Green got. The average was 47% when in reality it was 43%, in fact not a single BPC pollster was below 45%.
This year is quite different. Since Manchester Comres/ICM/Panelbase consistently have the combined share around 43.5%, Yougov/Ipsos consistently around 49%.
Note that before the election was called the average amongst all polling was 40.5%, and again pretty consistent between them excepting Ipsos.
what is the best english speaking country to emigrate to?
Yorkshire.
Failing that, Canada?
Whats the feeling on the ground in Wakefield & Morley ?
Still quite positive, to be honest (talking Wakefield here: M&O became an independent Association once it had its own Conservative MP). We're still finding switchers direct from Labour and losing virtually none the other way. As far as I can tell, we're picking up the bulk of UKIP voters too.
I've heard positive things about the postal votes but would take that with a pinch of salt as it's at best third-hand information based on what can be seen through the backs of the papers.
Are you finding any half term effect (people out or not interested)?
To be honest, I've been mostly delivering leaflets this week so don't have first-hand experience from this week, though I am still getting an overview of what's going on and that effect hasn't been brought up by those reporting in.
What's your gut tell you David? 10 point lead, 5 point lead or slipping Away?
I've been canvassing in various constituencies 3 times a week every week for 6 weeks and have detected no change. Morley? Been there, done it. Handsome Con win nailed on. Halifax? Yep. Pudsey? Majority double. Saw Baroness Varsey 2 days ago on her way to Wakefield which CCHQ have high hopes of adding to the bag. Just looked at the odds hoping to clean up on these and others I know but the bookies don't seem to believe the polls Been working with guys with 6 or 7 GEs under their belt and morale is high. Of course, they are thick Tories out of touch with the supressed seething rage sweeping the country. Corby's clever trick of losing the locals a couple of weeks ago has made us complacent I guess.
Farron LBC refuses to answer "Is being gay a sin?" (and did the same about abortion on Woman's Hour this AM). Given where he is I don't see what else he could do, but that is why he shouln't be where he is.
For tories who think we have now passed peak Black Friday, I have two letters: QT. Jezza on a roll vs May on back foot. Def one to view from nehind the sofa.
It's been the most fantastic shift seeing the Corbyn campaign at the outset talking about their end strategy of maintaining the leadership of the party to now genuinely thinking they can bring down May...
Yes, but what happens if they still lose by a huge margin?
Or to put it in context, the polls are worse for Labour now than they were for much of the 1979 election when several put them ahead (although there were many put them behind as well) and almost all had Callaghan as the most popular leader. Not one poll in over a year has put Labour in the lead. As for Corbyn's leadership ratings, despite the hysteria and the genuine decline in may's personal ratings, his are still worse. The last election for which those are both true is I think 1983 (not sure about 1987, but think Labour were leading about 6 months before). If we add Labour in it's 2001. Think about the implications of that.
This is more significant as in 1979 (a) they were expected to lose and (b) were in government and had more room to control the campaign.
Which is why I wonder what will happen if Labour still get shattered. How horrendous might the reaction be?
Edit - no, Labour had a dip in the polls in September 2000 after the fuel strike didn't they? 1997's the comparison.
If the electoral arithmetic returns to its pre 2015 status , Labour will not need to be ahead of the Conservatives to stop a Conservative overall majority .
Evidence is rather to the contrary however.
What evidence ?
Talk to me about this again next Friday morning.
So evidence is there none .
Equally, there is no evidence to suggest any return to 2015 arithmetic.
But there will be plenty on Friday. Happy to humbly apologise to you if Labour seat/vote ratio improves. Struggling to see how the typical demographic that Corbyn appeals to makes that a possibility.
Has no-one in CCHQ thought about resurrecting this:
God knows what CCHQ is doing, but honestly at this point they might as well head to the pub as doing nothing could hardly be worse.
I will be at the CCHQ phonebank tonight they are relentlessly focused on the marginals
I just got off the phone to Southampton Test candidate, but not revealing what he told me publicly.
Down there tomorrow.
I grew up in southampton itchen. Are you campaigning heavily around shirley? hill lane and portswood or are you going to the dives of redbridge bevois valley?
If my life was on the line to predict the right result, I would likely say tory win with a majority of around 80-100 seats than a hung parliament.
I would be very, very shocked with a hung parliament. I think the biggest concern is how long can theresa may survive because any tory with ambition could take her out now
I like David Davis. In hindsight the party made the wrong decision all those years ago to prefer Dave the Europhile over him. He's amazingly solid. Not exciting but very safe. And a big part of the May meltdown is the realisation that she is a TINO.
Interesting and understood. Makes me even happier in my Spanish retirement where my Teacher's pension would no doubt fall again with the £ following a hung parliament or worse but I have a very large savings buffer well away from McDonnell's grasping hands so like most comfortably off I will be ok. However, the masses will be massively let down by a Corbyn government - most of us over 60 know that this is a script which ends with the IMF and austerity on a big scale - see Greece for details.
I wonder when the British will learn to live within their means - it is very sad that the literature which gave us Micawber is so little read and understood by our over-indulged children.
Care to bet on whether the IMF will be called in (assuming a Corbyn PM)? 20 quid to a charity of your choice/my choice says they won't...
Sorry - one important reason why I'm so comfortably off is that I don't gamble on sites like this. long-term blue chips keeps jack a happy lad. I think it will end very badly though - it is what left-wing Labour do. Yes I know they want to raise taxes on companies and the rich to pay for all of it but that is another script we all know the end of. I wonder how many companies will stay post -Brexit if corporation tax shoots up.
So, you're saying you're comfortably off because you're mostly wrong about things?
Nope - because I have always saved money. I own 2 properties outright and savings well spread out. I have no debts and live comfortably on my pension in a low cost part of Spain with the best climate, an excellent range of restaurants which would rival many large cities and a good mix of Spanish, assorted Europeans and English. I have modest wants indulged to the full. Oh and of course I'm mostly right about the things I choose not to bet on
An interesting side-effect of all this is that, if the May majority is modest or non-existent, I cannot see there being another General Election now where the PM (or other leader) ducks out of a TV debate.
Whilst it's certainly not the sole cause of May's problems, it certainly hasn't helped, and I am sure the mythology will build up around it to the effect that crying off is a terrible mistake and something you just don't do.
It would be ok if she was highly visable in other places, so the 'she's hiding' claim couldn't be made. That's not the case however.
It's a problem for any PM, more so for the Tories. You reduce yourself to their level, if she had been in 7-way debate, everyone would be ganging up on the current PM, especially when 5 of the others are on the 'left' and only UKIP is on the right (and additionally being lumped with UKIP would cause problems of its own).
But any future leader needs to be visable, and look like they're up for it.
NO UKIP are finished PRECISELY because May is pursuing the free movement controls and regained sovereignty every poll shows Tory voters want, any big concessions by the Tories on payments to the EU will see UKIP make a swifter revival than Lazarus, May or no May
I think you need to remember that Nigel Farage captured and channeled anger at Brussels and the status quo like no other party leader before or since. The Lord Nuttall does not have his passion, or his intelligence. (He's also a complete fantasist.) Under Nuttall, I think they would struggle to perform under any scenario except an absolute about U-turn.
Kermit the Frog could lead UKIP and they would poll 20 to 25% if the Tories leave free movement uncontrolled and agree huge payments to the EU
I think it's a bit more subtle than that. If EFTA/EEA is sold as a transitional arrangement to the British people then I doubt they would be more than 10%. If that was combined with compulsory health insurance - as is required for foreigners in Switzerland where it costs more than £2,000 a year - it would probably be more like 6-7%.
No a transitional model immediately enables UKIP to cry betrayal if there is no firm commitment to end free movement and EU payments at the end and the idea Tory working class and lower middle class voters voted Leave to ensure immigrants had compulsory health insurance is laughable!
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if U says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
If the Tory en Tories really will have something to worry about!!
FFS, man, look at the polls. UKIP are finished. If voters were that fussed about Freedom of Movement, why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?
There is a seted with that outcome.
"why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?"
They're probably not if past opinion polling accuracy is anything to go by
Because the Tory party has said it's going to steal their houses. That policy is absolutely toxic in middle England. A man's (or woman's) home is his castle, the Tories have threatened it. It's literally the worst policy I've ever come across.
As you and I agreed, on here, the day the manifesto was launched, to the derision of most PB Tories. That was when the Tory lead began to crumble.
Note here, the timing of the sudden fall in TMay's ratings. When it all began to go wrong. Around the 18th of May: the day they launched the manifesto
It all went wrong for Leave when Jo Cox was murdered according to the polls, the betting, the media and the politically engaged.
No it didn't. The polls barely moved. And the time between her murder and the vote was brief.
We've had two weeks since the manifesto, ample time to see that both leader and VI polls have shifted, very very dramatically. Indeed, unprecedentedly.
The same thing happened in the indyref campaign after the second TV debate (I've no idea why). Suddenly YES shot up, and kept on surging.
We must pray that Corbyn suffers the same fate as YES.
It's been the most fantastic shift seeing the Corbyn campaign at the outset talking about their end strategy of maintaining the leadership of the party to now genuinely thinking they can bring down May...
Yes, but what happens if they still lose by a huge margin?
Or to put it in context, the polls are worse for Labour now than they were for much of the 1979 election when several put them ahead (although there were many put them behind as well) and almost all had Callaghan as the most popular leader. Not one poll in over a year has put Labour in the lead. As for Corbyn's leadership ratings, despite the hysteria and the genuine decline in may's personal ratings, his are still worse. The last election for which those are both true is I think 1983 (not sure about 1987, but think Labour were leading about 6 months before). If we add Labour in it's 2001. Think about the implications of that.
This is more significant as in 1979 (a) they were expected to lose and (b) were in government and had more room to control the campaign.
Which is why I wonder what will happen if Labour still get shattered. How horrendous might the reaction be?
Edit - no, Labour had a dip in the polls in September 2000 after the fuel strike didn't they? 1997's the comparison.
If the electoral arithmetic returns to its pre 2015 status , Labour will not need to be ahead of the Conservatives to stop a Conservative overall majority .
That's quite an 'if', which inter alia requires them winning 40 seats or so in Scotland.
Some people abroad (Canada / US / NZ) have started a "Tiny House" movement where couples or singles can buy a fancy bedsit for an affordable price. Search it on YouTube - it is interesting what people have done and I cannot help wondering if something like it could be the answer to deflating the property bubble.
We simply have to build far more houses, take what politicians say they will do and fail to deliver, but double it and deliver it. Get back to the ratios of the past, not just matching demand, but in terms of distribution as well. But no party is really willing to tackle this issue as it is electoral poison.
@PCollinsTimes: Reports back from the ground are that nobody campaigning has seen a dramatic change. Yet the polls seem to suggest there is.
@PCollinsTimes: People are citing the reports as conclusive evidence that the polls are wrong. Yet that does not follow. Both things can be true.
@PCollinsTimes: There has not been a very dramatic shift. The people making the polls move always liked Corbyn. It's about whether they vote.
@PCollinsTimes: So the two events are compatible. The electorate hasn't changed its mind. It's changed in size. If it has changed.
As stated previously it is rather bizarre that the corbgasm has seen the poll lead massively reduced and we haven't seen any reaction from the Tories. No big beasts, no rabbits, the mail / telegraph have no stories to run with.
Even if may is shit, you would think they would be doing something.
Either the Tories haven't got a clue what to do or they don't believe the public facing polls.
The Tories private polling is obviously telling them something the public ones are not showing. They know the real picture, and that could explain the lack of panic. No doubt there has been a hit from the drunken heights of pre-election polling. I did think it odd the other day,before the yougov,when the tories where saying in a press article they expected a labour lead in the polls this week...its almost as if this has been engineered to cause panic and the unmotivated to get out and vote.
An interesting side-effect of all this is that, if the May majority is modest or non-existent, I cannot see there being another General Election now where the PM (or other leader) ducks out of a TV debate.
Whilst it's certainly not the sole cause of May's problems, it certainly hasn't helped, and I am sure the mythology will build up around it to the effect that crying off is a terrible mistake and something you just don't do.
It would be ok if she was highly visable in other places, so the 'she's hiding' claim couldn't be made. That's not the case however.
It's a problem for any PM, more so for the Tories. You reduce yourself to their level, if she had been in 7-way debate, everyone would be ganging up on the current PM, especially when 5 of the others are on the 'left' and only UKIP is on the right (and additionally being lumped with UKIP would cause problems of its own).
But any future leader needs to be visable, and look like they're up for it.
One of the best thing Cameron did was those Cameron directs. He got a lot of credit for taking questions from audiences who weren't just Tory party faithful. Also he got very good at deflecting really tricky questions.
That's true and not true. I think people supported the 'idea' of tackling the need for increased support for social care. It was facing up to the funding needed.
But it was just done in a rubbish way and communicated awfully.
I supported the principle behind the social care policy, my issues were it was poorly communicated and most of all, you can't overturn 40 years of Tory orthodoxy like that.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has been pushing that we should become a home owning democracy that you can leave tax free to your kids if you're not seriously wealthy.
You know it was poorly presented because even Tim flipping Farron mocked the plan in the debate on Wednesday.
NO UKIP are finished PRECISELY because May is pursuing the free movement controls and regained sovereignty every poll shows Tory voters want, any big concessions by the Tories on payments to the EU will see UKIP make a swifter revival than Lazarus, May or no May
I think you need to remember that Nigel Farage captured and channeled anger at Brussels and the status quo like no other party leader before or since. The Lord Nuttall does not have his passion, or his intelligence. (He's also a complete fantasist.) Under Nuttall, I think they would struggle to perform under any scenario except an absolute about U-turn.
Kermit the Frog could lead UKIP and they would poll 20 to 25% if the Tories leave free movement uncontrolled and agree huge payments to the EU
I think it's a bit more subtle than that. If EFTA/EEA is sold as a transitional arrangement to the British people then I doubt they would be more than 10%. If that was combined with compulsory health insurance - as is required for foreigners in Switzerland where it costs more than £2,000 a year - it would probably be more like 6-7%.
The basic package is 400 CHF per month, about £4k per year. The only £2k packages available are to young people and the unemployed who get it subsidised.
And IIRC only Swiss citizens get it subsidised, not immigrants.
So it would cost someone without a job nearly £400/month to be in Switzerland before any other costs. That's a real disincentive for low skilled immigrants who aren't - say - working for a Swiss private bank.
The issue with that is everyone in Switzerland is legally obliged to buy health insurance, there is no such thing as public healthcare or any kind of NHS style department which looks after everyone. Under EU/EEA rules all EEA citizens must be treated the same under the law, so if we qualify for NHS treatment as British citizens then all EU/EEA citizens must qualify as well. My partner was amazed that she was getting away with not paying anything for insurance for the four years we lived together in London, she just needed an NI number and to register with a GP. I then pointed out to her that her net rate of tax was around 35% after taking NI into account vs 14% she paid in Basel (16% in Zurich).
On a fundamental level a welfare state doesn't work with open borders where the rules state that everyone must be treated the same.
If my life was on the line to predict the right result, I would likely say tory win with a majority of around 80-100 seats than a hung parliament.
I would be very, very shocked with a hung parliament. I think the biggest concern is how long can theresa may survive because any tory with ambition could take her out now
I like David Davis. In hindsight the party made the wrong decision all those years ago to prefer Dave the Europhile over him. He's amazingly solid. Not exciting but very safe. And a big part of the May meltdown is the realisation that she is a TINO.
Are you trolling?
Davis is a lone rider with strong convictions, which is a combination wholly unsuited to leading a political party. Worse, his convictions are ones which are of fringe interest to the public and which divide his party.
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if U says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
If the Tory en Tories really will have something to worry about!!
FFS, man, look at the polls. UKIP are finished. If voters were that fussed about Freedom of Movement, why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?
There is a seted with that outcome.
"why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?"
They're probably not if past opinion polling accuracy is anything to go by
Because the Tory party has said it's going to steal their houses. That policy is absolutely toxic in middle England. A man's (or woman's) home is his castle, the Tories have threatened it. It's literally the worst policy I've ever come across.
As you and I agreed, on here, the day the manifesto was launched, to the derision of most PB Tories. That was when the Tory lead began to crumble.
Note here, the timing of the sudden fall in TMay's ratings. When it all began to go wrong. Around the 18th of May: the day they launched the manifesto
It all went wrong for Leave when Jo Cox was murdered according to the polls, the betting, the media and the politically engaged.
No it didn't. The polls barely moved. And the time between her murder and the vote was brief.
We've had two weeks since the manifesto, ample time to see that both leader and VI polls have shifted, very very dramatically. Indeed, unprecedentedly.
The same thing happened in the indyref campaign after the second TV debate (I've no idea why). Suddenly YES shot up, and kept on surging.
We must pray that Corbyn suffers the same fate as YES.
I am sorry, you are wrong. The polls almost all moved from Leave to Remain. See for yourself
That's true and not true. I think people supported the 'idea' of tackling the need for increased support for social care. It was facing up to the funding needed.
But it was just done in a rubbish way and communicated awfully.
I supported the principle behind the social care policy, my issues were it was poorly communicated and most of all, you can't overturn 40 years of Tory orthodoxy like that.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has been pushing that we should become a home owning democracy that you can leave tax free to your kids if you're not seriously wealthy.
You know it was poorly presented because even Tim flipping Farron mocked the plan in the debate on Wednesday.
Indeed, the last government introduced the IHT allowance homes, this one wants to take all but £100k worth of equity off you. The government has the giant fiscal tool of state pensions to fund old age care, they are just too stupid to use it.
I think if the Tories think they are in trouble we will be seeing all hands to the pumps from tomorrow and full on buckets of shit all across the papers. That or they haven't got a fucking clue how to counteract the corbgasm.
Yep been saying for days that if there's trouble they roll out the business leaders, the former MPs, the army and MI5 types. Either they're waiting for the whistle to begin their orchestrated attack or it's just not coming because it's not required. It's a reason why I'm holding off my bets until Tuesday.
It's just possible that quite a large chunk of that fat Tory warchest is being poured into some really top quality stratified random sample polling, which is telling them something rather different to the horseshit self-selected pool sample stuff that appears in the papers.
I was thinking that myself, maybe the Tories are spending a fortune on private polling, and going for quality not quantity.
Whatever happens in this election, it's quite clear that it has been a week too long. All we are going to get for the last few days now, is Labour people doing interviews and just shouting down their opponents. Aided and abetted by the broadcasters of course, who for some strange reason think this makes "good television."
I see the odious Paul Mason is trying to stoke up the narrative that Theresa May is unwell. As I said yesterday, there is a deep unpleasantness creeping in now, especially from the likes of Emily Thornberry (who is no lady). There is no way Theresa May can respond to this because she is just not that kind of politician.
It's just possible that quite a large chunk of that fat Tory warchest is being poured into some really top quality stratified random sample polling, which is telling them something rather different to the horseshit self-selected pool sample stuff that appears in the papers.
I was thinking that myself, maybe the Tories are spending a fortune on private polling, and going for quality not quantity.
CTF uses Populus iirc, so anyone on that panel might have seen some of the polls and questions.
I think if the Tories think they are in trouble we will be seeing all hands to the pumps from tomorrow and full on buckets of shit all across the papers. That or they haven't got a fucking clue how to counteract the corbgasm.
Yep been saying for days that if there's trouble they roll out the business leaders, the former MPs, the army and MI5 types. Either they're waiting for the whistle to begin their orchestrated attack or it's just not coming because it's not required. It's a reason why I'm holding off my bets until Tuesday.
Business leaders hate May because of Brexit and former Tory leaders (Hague and IDS aside) hate May because of Brexit.
No one is going to come riding to May's rescue.
A hung parliament with Tory minority government and then a complete realignment of the political parties is what we need.
Has no-one in CCHQ thought about resurrecting this:
God knows what CCHQ is doing, but honestly at this point they might as well head to the pub as doing nothing could hardly be worse.
I will be at the CCHQ phonebank tonight they are relentlessly focused on the marginals
I just got off the phone to Southampton Test candidate, but not revealing what he told me publicly.
Down there tomorrow.
I grew up in southampton itchen. Are you campaigning heavily around shirley? hill lane and portswood or are you going to the dives of redbridge bevois valley?
Dunno. If CCHQ analysis is any good, the bits that might swing.
Put it this way: I think i am going to the right place, but it's a big ask for the Tories to take it.
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
As someone said earlier it's becoming more and more difficult to get a representative polling sample. The number of adjustments the companies have to make these days is almost mind-boggling.
It's just possible that quite a large chunk of that fat Tory warchest is being poured into some really top quality stratified random sample polling, which is telling them something rather different to the horseshit self-selected pool sample stuff that appears in the papers.
Given the polls, and the trend, the chances of a Hung Parliament are about 2/1, or 5/2 which means the 7/2 on offer is VALUE?
If the Tories get 44%+ it won't be a hung parliament.
The trend, my friend, the trend.
Cons have got gains in Scotland "in the bank" which gives them a bit of breathing room.
Cons in Scotland are slipping back into 3rd place as I forecast 3 weeks ago . Apart from BRS they have no gains banked .
No they are not, BMG today has SCons on 30%
Based on my Central Belt discussions with friends & family Corbynmania has taken off this past week or so - SLAB will likely push SCON into 3rd place % wise - the polls will catch-up soon !
Tactical voting might help SLID in a few seats - but anti-SCON/anti-SNP balance each other out - SCON gains towards bottom end of expectations.
An interesting side-effect of all this is that, if the May majority is modest or non-existent, I cannot see there being another General Election now where the PM (or other leader) ducks out of a TV debate.
Whilst it's certainly not the sole cause of May's problems, it certainly hasn't helped, and I am sure the mythology will build up around it to the effect that crying off is a terrible mistake and something you just don't do.
It would be ok if she was highly visable in other places, so the 'she's hiding' claim couldn't be made. That's not the case however.
It's a problem for any PM, more so for the Tories. You reduce yourself to their level, if she had been in 7-way debate, everyone would be ganging up on the current PM, especially when 5 of the others are on the 'left' and only UKIP is on the right (and additionally being lumped with UKIP would cause problems of its own).
But any future leader needs to be visable, and look like they're up for it.
Cameron handled it fine in 2015 and, with decent prep, almost any PM can play the old "adult in the room" card a bit and point to a few achievements.
In any event, a free for all debate is actually okay for the PM as it's unlikely any one opponent will be deemed to have "won" as Clegg did in 2010. The 2015 debates were, to a degree, non-events as the instant polls showed some people had done better than others but nobody excelled or crashed and burned.
If you could ask theresa may/jeremy corbyn a question what would it be?
Mine TM - Your advice to the british people was to vote remain while many of your conservative colleagues advocated to vote leave. You promised to reduce immigration. You got it wrong. Your political judgement is wrong whats changed?
JC - Why did you vote to campaign/remain in the EU when before you became leader, you advocated to leave for over 20 years?
I think if the Tories think they are in trouble we will be seeing all hands to the pumps from tomorrow and full on buckets of shit all across the papers. That or they haven't got a fucking clue how to counteract the corbgasm.
Yep been saying for days that if there's trouble they roll out the business leaders, the former MPs, the army and MI5 types. Either they're waiting for the whistle to begin their orchestrated attack or it's just not coming because it's not required. It's a reason why I'm holding off my bets until Tuesday.
By this stage of the campaign we are normally sick of organized letters to newspapers...This time nothing.
Comments
It's Nicola v Ruth
It's best PM ratings to watch.
It also obviously wouldn't be good for people who have decided to buy for investment rather than for a place to live. But, y'know, screw 'em.
I can see why the only reason they would vote for him is if they thought the alternative was the utter destruction of the Labour Party.
With regard to canvass returns I wonder if the problem might be people are saying one thing on the doorsteps and another on the net/phones. That could explain it.
Corbyn's got a hold on you, believe it.
If you're in public sector - Corbyn will likely mean higher pay. Probably not much higher.
Tories will reduce your income tax a tiny amount (think I saw 33 pounds a year quoted by IFS).
Unclear what the impact of Corbyn corporation tax rise will be - but very unlikely it will be restricted to just the top 5% of earners. Presumably you use the NHS which Corbyn will provide more funding to (and IMO really does need it).
Tories haven't ruled out tax increases - and Labour may have to break their promise to restrict them to those in the top 5%....
Guess it depends who you trust more!
The average salary is around 27k in this country, and Corbynistas have said that they are only going to penalise the 'rich' not anyone near the average salary.
Some people abroad (Canada / US / NZ) have started a "Tiny House" movement where couples or singles can buy a fancy bedsit for an affordable price. Search it on YouTube - it is interesting what people have done and I cannot help wondering if something like it could be the answer to deflating the property bubble.
Game changers!
So it would cost someone without a job nearly £400/month to be in Switzerland before any other costs. That's a real disincentive for low skilled immigrants who aren't - say - working for a Swiss private bank.
It's just a donation to a charity. If I won, I'd pick UNICEF who do good work.
But your call.
At no point so far has May seemed panicked. Repetitive, dull and uninspiring yes, but never a bedwetter.
Cue: Corbyn Government / McDonnell maxing out the countries cards.
UKIP are finished because of the Brexit result, and whatever happens from here they are not coming back.
Down there tomorrow.
But it was just done in a rubbish way and communicated awfully.
Whilst it's certainly not the sole cause of May's problems, it certainly hasn't helped, and I am sure the mythology will build up around it to the effect that crying off is a terrible mistake and something you just don't do.
On the other hand, Labour have won the seat for the last 21 general elections. No Wakefieldian under the age of 87 has had anything other than a Labour MP. In many ways a tory win would be seismic.
I would be very, very shocked with a hung parliament. I think the biggest concern is how long can theresa may survive because any tory with ambition could take her out now
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/868466053885702145
The position seems to be the SNP are claiming they would prop up Labour (so you can vote for us without letting the Toreees in), but Labour are saying no deal and daring the SNP to vote against them (and with the Tories)
In 2015 all the polls after the final debate overestimated the share of the vote Lab+LD+Green got. The average was 47% when in reality it was 43%, in fact not a single BPC pollster was below 45%.
This year is quite different. Since Manchester Comres/ICM/Panelbase consistently have the combined share around 43.5%, Yougov/Ipsos consistently around 49%.
Note that before the election was called the average amongst all polling was 40.5%, and again pretty consistent between them excepting Ipsos.
This difference is not simply about Labour VI.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/utterly-unbelievable-tim-farron-in-fresh-row-after-refusing-to-say-if-he-thinks-homosexuality-is-a-a3555256.html
For tories who think we have now passed peak Black Friday, I have two letters: QT. Jezza on a roll vs May on back foot. Def one to view from nehind the sofa.
But there will be plenty on Friday. Happy to humbly apologise to you if Labour seat/vote ratio improves. Struggling to see how the typical demographic that Corbyn appeals to makes that a possibility.
And a big part of the May meltdown is the realisation that she is a TINO.
It's a problem for any PM, more so for the Tories. You reduce yourself to their level, if she had been in 7-way debate, everyone would be ganging up on the current PM, especially when 5 of the others are on the 'left' and only UKIP is on the right (and additionally being lumped with UKIP would cause problems of its own).
But any future leader needs to be visable, and look like they're up for it.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has been pushing that we should become a home owning democracy that you can leave tax free to your kids if you're not seriously wealthy.
You know it was poorly presented because even Tim flipping Farron mocked the plan in the debate on Wednesday.
On a fundamental level a welfare state doesn't work with open borders where the rules state that everyone must be treated the same.
Davis is a lone rider with strong convictions, which is a combination wholly unsuited to leading a political party. Worse, his convictions are ones which are of fringe interest to the public and which divide his party.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
Leave was 2.24 on Betfair the morning of Jo Coxs murder and drifted to 15 by the following week
Conservative
42%
313
Labour
38%
257
Liberal Democrats
9%
10
https://order-order.com/2017/06/02/mp-heckled-jew-jew-jew-for-saying-israel-has-right-to-exist/
I see the odious Paul Mason is trying to stoke up the narrative that Theresa May is unwell. As I said yesterday, there is a deep unpleasantness creeping in now, especially from the likes of Emily Thornberry (who is no lady). There is no way Theresa May can respond to this because she is just not that kind of politician.
No one is going to come riding to May's rescue.
A hung parliament with Tory minority government and then a complete realignment of the political parties is what we need.
Put it this way: I think i am going to the right place, but it's a big ask for the Tories to take it.
Tactical voting might help SLID in a few seats - but anti-SCON/anti-SNP balance each other out - SCON gains towards bottom end of expectations.
In any event, a free for all debate is actually okay for the PM as it's unlikely any one opponent will be deemed to have "won" as Clegg did in 2010. The 2015 debates were, to a degree, non-events as the instant polls showed some people had done better than others but nobody excelled or crashed and burned.
Mine
TM - Your advice to the british people was to vote remain while many of your conservative colleagues advocated to vote leave. You promised to reduce immigration. You got it wrong. Your political judgement is wrong whats changed?
JC - Why did you vote to campaign/remain in the EU when before you became leader, you advocated to leave for over 20 years?
"Kermit the Frog could lead UKIP and they would poll 20 to 25% if the Tories leave free movement uncontrolled and agree huge payments to the EU."
Surely Kermit should be leading the Greens.