Well (see above) Corbynistas are now admitting that it won't just be the 'rich' who lose out under Corbyn which is basically what they've been telling people. It will be most of the country, because of how they see what 'rich' is and it's not 80k.
It's interesting that even people earning 80k don't always see themselves as particularly well off! Matter of perspective I suspsect. The fact that most people believe themselves to be roughly average, but that there are a lot of people who are "rich" a couple of pay grades above them, must make a non-specific "we''ll help out the average Joe by taxing 'the Rich'" a very tempting electoral slogan.
That's true. Although I find it hard to not to see 80k as pretty well off, although it isn't top 1%.
Everything is relative, I earn a little less than 80k, but I and my wife, who earns a little less than me (but in the higher rate) don't have children, so in moneratry terms, we're a lot better off than those which do..
I did all warn you not to underestimate Jeremy Corbyn.
There’s a danger that we’re underestimating the Labour leader
Outside of the Corbynites, the idée reçue amongst most of us is that Jeremy Corbyn leading Labour at a general election is going to lead Labour to experiencing an extinction level electoral defeat. On my most charitable days I’ll say Jeremy Corbyn has only two flaws, everything he says, and everything he does, but I’m going to challenge that perception and defend Jeremy Corbyn. .....
...Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.
I picked it because of this reasons you state as well as it being close to the average salary. I just found it odd that you talked so much about graduates on 25k, however now I get why you did that.
I don't blame CD2Es and others for voting for Corbyn, or, indeed Brexit. I can't say I know exactly what life is like for them right now, but it must be pretty awful. I don't mind paying more taxes in the future - I'm reconciled to that - for better public services and to help the very poorest people. In 2015 I voted Labour because of Cameron's cuts to welfare. Those cuts were not going to affect me or my family - but they were going to affect some very vinerable people.
But in paying higher taxes, I also want my family to be able to pay our own bills as well. As long as that can happen, I'm okay.
Just to put all this talk about how awful life is for people at the bottom end of society in perspective, this is my neighbours house, where he lives with his wife and three children. He makes around $2 per day.
Well, now I'm confused as hell. If there's as much trouble as the polls predict, what on Earth is she doing spending time in Caroline Flint's constituency?
Perhaps the "crap campaign" we've been banging on about isn't restricted in its crapness to the manifesto and May, perhaps it's crap targeting as well.
Don't forget Crosby+Textor out-thought us all in 2015. Most people thought Cameron campaigning in Twickenham and the south-west was crap targeting.
So Theresa is in a seat, which looks highly unlikely according to the latest polls while Corbyn was in equally unlikely South Basildon yesterday.
If you look at what Electoral Calculus are predicting both leaders should be in seats like
Gedling Edgbaston Hove Chorley Cardiff N Copeland Plymouth Sutton Wakefield Ealing C Vale of Clwyd
These are all predicted to be within 300 votes
Gedling - tory gain Edgbaston - tory gain Hove - labour hold Chorley - Labour hold cardiff north - labour copeland - could be like corby in 2015. dont know plymouth - labour gain (tory vote ceiling to low) wakefield - labour hold ealing - labour hold (tories wont improve their vote on 2015) vale of clwyd - tory hold
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
There aren't any "democratically elected politicians" - at least as far as Westminster is concerned - at the moment are there?
Yes but if the case went to trial by jury, the case would collapse as the jury wouldnt be able to make a verdict. Only a judge can make a verdict on this case because of the tory attacks.
The bottom line was this was a conservative plot to do anything at all costs to prevent farage from winning.
My apolitical brother (who actually bothered to vote Leave in the Euref but doesn't normally), actually predicted this. He said people who don't normally vote will turnout for Corbyn making the race a lot closer then people think. Like Brexit and Trump
I was sceptical, but now I believe him.
Sometimes to appreciate what is actually happening we need to step back for a minute ignore the punditry and see what is actually happening in the real world.
After yeards of GDP growth but no one but the bankers feeling it people want change. Any change, as long it is change.
Brexit, Trump and now Corbyn.......what a couple of years it has been.....
Horrifically, depressingly, worryingly, unbelievably - I think this is dead right.
Well, now I'm confused as hell. If there's as much trouble as the polls predict, what on Earth is she doing spending time in Caroline Flint's constituency?
Perhaps the "crap campaign" we've been banging on about isn't restricted in its crapness to the manifesto and May, perhaps it's crap targeting as well.
WillS
Maybe CCHQ want her put of the way, not losing votes in a marginal.
David I'm not trolling about Davis. His pet issues are mostly to do with not letting the state become over-intrusive. I know many people want nannying but, even in a world with terrorists, there is a point at which government overreach does more harm than good. His flounce by-election and subsequent sacking by Dave were of a theme. As a PM he'd be dull, solid, Brexity, right about most things, able to communicate and rip Corbyn a new one. He'd be very safe. He can talk human.
We might just have to disagree about most of that.
I agree with him (and you?) on state intrusion and civil liberties but that is very much a fringe concern: to the extent that they do think about it, most people want more surveillance because it doesn't affect them directly and they think it will help. But it's not jobs, schools, hospitals or pensions.
But you're talking about issues; my point was about party and government management. Davis is temperamentally unsuited to leading a broadly-based government. He is probably well-placed at present and could make a good Home Secretary but PM and party leader? No. Cameron was the right choice at the time.
As opposed to the absolutely well suited temperamentally... Theresa May ?
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
Absolute bullshit. If it had been a Labour Mp you would have heard Corbyn saying as much.
if you were a juror you would throw the case out because you've presumed the tories are innocent based on their reaction. They've smeared the judicial process.
So Theresa is in a seat, which looks highly unlikely according to the latest polls while Corbyn was in equally unlikely South Basildon yesterday.
If you look at what Electoral Calculus are predicting both leaders should be in seats like
Gedling Edgbaston Hove Chorley Cardiff N Copeland Plymouth Sutton Wakefield Ealing C Vale of Clwyd
These are all predicted to be within 300 votes
Gedling - tory gain Edgbaston - tory gain Hove - labour hold Chorley - Labour hold cardiff north - labour copeland - could be like corby in 2015. dont know plymouth - labour gain (tory vote ceiling to low) wakefield - labour hold ealing - labour hold (tories wont improve their vote on 2015) vale of clwyd - tory hold
Well, as I've indicated here previously, there is at least one Lab-Con switcher I know of in Ealing Central & Acton: me
Has no-one in CCHQ thought about resurrecting this:
God knows what CCHQ is doing, but honestly at this point they might as well head to the pub as doing nothing could hardly be worse.
I will be at the CCHQ phonebank tonight they are relentlessly focused on the marginals
I just got off the phone to Southampton Test candidate, but not revealing what he told me publicly.
Down there tomorrow.
I grew up in southampton itchen. Are you campaigning heavily around shirley? hill lane and portswood or are you going to the dives of redbridge bevois valley?
Dunno. If CCHQ analysis is any good, the bits that might swing.
Put it this way: I think i am going to the right place, but it's a big ask for the Tories to take it.
Where have you campaigned in southampton test?
Weird but true - John Denham was more popular than Alan Whitehead. I still know the southampton itchen candidate from 2015, Rowenna Mason, really nice person and totally genuine. That was the worse result for me in 2015 as she could easily have been a conservative mp but just chose the wrong side.
I did all warn you not to underestimate Jeremy Corbyn.
There’s a danger that we’re underestimating the Labour leader
Outside of the Corbynites, the idée reçue amongst most of us is that Jeremy Corbyn leading Labour at a general election is going to lead Labour to experiencing an extinction level electoral defeat. On my most charitable days I’ll say Jeremy Corbyn has only two flaws, everything he says, and everything he does, but I’m going to challenge that perception and defend Jeremy Corbyn. .....
...Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.
ut the average Joe by taxing 'the Rich'" a very tempting electoral slogan.
That's true. Although I find it hard to not to see 80k as pretty well off, although it isn't top 1%.
The thing is, 80k with a non-working spouse and three children, paying a London mortgage is *completely* different to being a single person earning 80k in the North East, or an 80k mortgage-free empty nester etc.
It's never just about ones base salary level. So many other factors come into play. There are retirees out there now who maybe never earned more than 25k in their lives but who now have considerable wealth and are more comfortable and 'well off' than their children earning close to 80k.
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
What is needed is a return to the principles of sub judice. Charging details should not be announced as a news event, nor should the media be permitted to report upon it. Details of trials should not be available until verdict is reached. Trial by media must end.
Well (see above) Corbynistas are now admitting that it won't just be the 'rich' who lose out under Corbyn which is basically what they've been telling people. It will be most of the country, because of how they see what 'rich' is and it's not 80k.
It's interesting that even people earning 80k don't always see themselves as particularly well off! Matter of perspective I suspsect. The fact that most people believe themselves to be roughly average, but that there are a lot of people who are "rich" a couple of pay grades above them, must make a non-specific "we''ll help out the average Joe by taxing 'the Rich'" a very tempting electoral slogan.
That's true. Although I find it hard to not to see 80k as pretty well off, although it isn't top 1%.
Everything is relative, I earn a little less than 80k, but I and my wife, who earns a little less than me (but in the higher rate) don't have children, so in moneratry terms, we're a lot better off than those which do..
You do realise it is the marginal rate that will be going up. So anyone earning more 80k will still have net earnings higher than those earning less than 80k.
Has no-one in CCHQ thought about resurrecting this:
God knows what CCHQ is doing, but honestly at this point they might as well head to the pub as doing nothing could hardly be worse.
I will be at the CCHQ phonebank tonight they are relentlessly focused on the marginals
I just got off the phone to Southampton Test candidate, but not revealing what he told me publicly.
Down there tomorrow.
I grew up in southampton itchen. Are you campaigning heavily around shirley? hill lane and portswood or are you going to the dives of redbridge bevois valley?
Dunno. If CCHQ analysis is any good, the bits that might swing.
Put it this way: I think i am going to the right place, but it's a big ask for the Tories to take it.
Where have you campaigned in southampton test?
Weird but true - John Denham was more popular than Alan Whitehead. I still know the southampton itchen candidate from 2015, Rowenna Mason, really nice person and totally genuine. That was the worse result for me in 2015 as she could easily have been a conservative mp but just chose the wrong side.
Rowenna Davis?
If she is the same person who used to write opinion pieces for the Guardian, then Tory MP she is not.
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
Absolute bullshit. If it had been a Labour Mp you would have heard Corbyn saying as much.
if you were a juror you would throw the case out because you've presumed the tories are innocent based on their reaction. They've smeared the judicial process.
I thought it was okay to claim you were innocent of charges, or does that fall under sub judice too?
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
What is needed is a return to the principles of sub judice. Charging details should not be announced as a news event, nor should the media be permitted to report upon it. Details of trials should not be available until verdict is reached. Trial by media must end.
I would support a ban on the media from talking about the election during the campaign. The written media is not independent groups but run by media barons with an agenda that the public doesn't know. When the media publishes stories that are twisted to fit a narrative its totally irresponsible.
Britain would be a better country without newspapers.
I picked it because of this reasons you state as well as it being close to the average salary. I just found it odd that you talked so much about graduates on 25k, however now I get why you did that.
Cheers. We fairly often seem to cross wires on here. I think it might be my writing style, making it unclear which aspects of my reply I believe apply to you. I also often write quite general replies, sometimes presenting alternative views (that I don't believe myself, nor wish to imply that whoever I am talking to holds) if I find them interesting or relevant. Think that can cause confusion too if you think I'm implying that they're what you think, and I'm trying to set up a straw man. (I don't "debate to win" on PB, I try to take a pluralistic, wide spectrum view of the world which is why I enjoy the variety here so much. If it ever seems I am getting heated, I'm almost certainly not.)
On twitter many Corbyn supporters genuinely believe that it'll be those on 80k who will 'pay' for all of the things in the manifesto. They've even been mocking those on 35k for not voting Corbyn, saying that they won't be taxed so why are they worried.
Twitter amplifies the crazy.
That sounds pretty tame compared to some of the stuff that normally comes up. Ed Miliband = Thatcher. Corbynites attacking 16 year old girls campaigning for Labour etc. etc. Never mind the vile abuse to all sorts of people... Best to just ignore them I think.
When I used twitter I found the only value was following experts in a field I wanted to learn more about, football trivia and occasionally funny videos/memes.
My analysis: Either the polls are wrong. Or the Tories have run the worst campaign in history of democracy. Or both. Probably both #ge2017
Both, definitely both.
I disagree. The Tories cannot possibly have run the worst campaign in the history of democracy, simply because they lack a campaign. If you do not have one, it cannot be the worst!
Well (see above) Corbynistas are now admitting that it won't just be the 'rich' who lose out under Corbyn which is basically what they've been telling people. It will be most of the country, because of how they see what 'rich' is and it's not 80k.
It's interesting that even people earning 80k don't always see themselves as particularly well off! Matter of perspective I suspsect. The fact that most people believe themselves to be roughly average, but that there are a lot of people who are "rich" a couple of pay grades above them, must make a non-specific "we''ll help out the average Joe by taxing 'the Rich'" a very tempting electoral slogan.
That's true. Although I find it hard to not to see 80k as pretty well off, although it isn't top 1%.
Everything is relative, I earn a little less than 80k, but I and my wife, who earns a little less than me (but in the higher rate) don't have children, so in moneratry terms, we're a lot better off than those which do..
You do realise it is the marginal rate that will be going up. So anyone earning more 80k will still have net earnings higher than those earning less than 80k.
You do realise labours figures don't even start to add up....
Rupert Murdoch endorses May because the tories have scrapped leverson.
Journalists and reporters still have a right to pretend to be relatives at funerals to get a story. The press still have a right to go through your rubbish on a daily basis without consent. The press still have a right to sit outside your house for a prolonged period of time and the police will do nothing about it.
If people didn't buy this trash, the scum wouldn't have work.
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
Given the police have already passed this on to the CPS, who have already charged Mackinlay, it's a bit hard to see how the comment affects either of them. Moreover, it's a bit weird to say that someone who has been charged with an offence can't comment publicly on it.
Corbyn, not for the first time, is talking bollocks.
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
What is needed is a return to the principles of sub judice. Charging details should not be announced as a news event, nor should the media be permitted to report upon it. Details of trials should not be available until verdict is reached. Trial by media must end.
I would support a ban on the media from talking about the election during the campaign. The written media is not independent groups but run by media barons with an agenda that the public doesn't know. When the media publishes stories that are twisted to fit a narrative its totally irresponsible.
Britain would be a better country without newspapers.
Difficult to do but yeah. I'd certainly like to see opinion polls being banned during the purdah. Published ones anyway.
Has no-one in CCHQ thought about resurrecting this:
God knows what CCHQ is doing, but honestly at this point they might as well head to the pub as doing nothing could hardly be worse.
I will be at the CCHQ phonebank tonight they are relentlessly focused on the marginals
I just got off the phone to Southampton Test candidate, but not revealing what he told me publicly.
Down there tomorrow.
I grew up in southampton itchen. Are you campaigning heavily around shirley? hill lane and portswood or are you going to the dives of redbridge bevois valley?
Dunno. If CCHQ analysis is any good, the bits that might swing.
Put it this way: I think i am going to the right place, but it's a big ask for the Tories to take it.
Where have you campaigned in southampton test?
Weird but true - John Denham was more popular than Alan Whitehead. I still know the southampton itchen candidate from 2015, Rowenna Mason, really nice person and totally genuine. That was the worse result for me in 2015 as she could easily have been a conservative mp but just chose the wrong side.
Rowenna Davis?
If she is the same person who used to write opinion pieces for the Guardian, then Tory MP she is not.
Brain freeze both at guardian. Rowenna Davis started blue labour.
Given the polls, and the trend, the chances of a Hung Parliament are about 2/1, or 5/2 which means the 7/2 on offer is VALUE?
If the Tories get 44%+ it won't be a hung parliament.
The trend, my friend, the trend.
Cons have got gains in Scotland "in the bank" which gives them a bit of breathing room.
Cons in Scotland are slipping back into 3rd place as I forecast 3 weeks ago . Apart from BRS they have no gains banked .
No they are not, BMG today has SCons on 30%
Based on my Central Belt discussions with friends & family Corbynmania has taken off this past week or so - SLAB will likely push SCON into 3rd place % wise - the polls will catch-up soon !
Tactical voting might help SLID in a few seats - but anti-SCON/anti-SNP balance each other out - SCON gains towards bottom end of expectations.
Nat to SLab shift within your circle, I'd guess. Nervous times for Sturgeon.
My circle is very mixed - l live in Dunblane, a solid SCON bit of Stirling - main shift SLAB tacticals & disillusioned SLAB likely stay at homes - back into the SLAB fold - SCON biggest net loser.
FWIW my circle helped me accurately predict GE2015 while odds were crazy !
Well (see above) Corbynistas are now admitting that it won't just be the 'rich' who lose out under Corbyn which is basically what they've been telling people. It will be most of the country, because of how they see what 'rich' is and it's not 80k.
It's interesting that even people earning 80k don't always see themselves as particularly well off! Matter of perspective I suspsect. The fact that most people believe themselves to be roughly average, but that there are a lot of people who are "rich" a couple of pay grades above them, must make a non-specific "we''ll help out the average Joe by taxing 'the Rich'" a very tempting electoral slogan.
Everyone defines rich as anyone making at least £10k more than them.
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
What is needed is a return to the principles of sub judice. Charging details should not be announced as a news event, nor should the media be permitted to report upon it. Details of trials should not be available until verdict is reached. Trial by media must end.
I would support a ban on the media from talking about the election during the campaign. The written media is not independent groups but run by media barons with an agenda that the public doesn't know. When the media publishes stories that are twisted to fit a narrative its totally irresponsible.
Britain would be a better country without newspapers.
The same would have to apply to TV companies and radio as well to be fair.
Better hope for BrExit if you want that, not a chance of doing it in the EU because of the Charter of Fundamental Rights (Article 11)
Well (see above) Corbynistas are now admitting that it won't just be the 'rich' who lose out under Corbyn which is basically what they've been telling people. It will be most of the country, because of how they see what 'rich' is and it's not 80k.
It's interesting that even people earning 80k don't always see themselves as particularly well off! Matter of perspective I suspsect. The fact that most people believe themselves to be roughly average, but that there are a lot of people who are "rich" a couple of pay grades above them, must make a non-specific "we''ll help out the average Joe by taxing 'the Rich'" a very tempting electoral slogan.
That's true. Although I find it hard to not to see 80k as pretty well off, although it isn't top 1%.
Everything is relative, I earn a little less than 80k, but I and my wife, who earns a little less than me (but in the higher rate) don't have children, so in moneratry terms, we're a lot better off than those which do..
You do realise it is the marginal rate that will be going up. So anyone earning more 80k will still have net earnings higher than those earning less than 80k.
You do realise labours figures don't even start to add up....
I'm very pissed off that those on over £100k basically lose their personal allowance. I'm paying 60% marginal rate for a fair chunk of my salary above the cut off. I have a moral problem with tax rates over 50% in any band.
'She's like Brown, but without Gordon's social graces and joie de vivre'. LOL!
Brown was wrong about most things but he's an absolute political titan compared to Theresa.
She's taking a hammering today, and rightly so. But if this time next week, she has (as I still think quite possible) a 100+ majority, it'll be funny to read all the testimonials concerning the genius of her campaign.
That would be stinging, if the ratings weren't curiously similar to Thatcher and Cameron at this point, rather than Brown.
Elections usually always coincide with a fall in leader ratings for the incumbent PM (Certainly Tory ones). I think all it reflects is people who vote for other parties becoming partisan again. The real piece of interest is where the floor of the Conservative leader rating sticks. It could point to the margins of victory in an election. Again it is people looking for comparisons with previous PM's make me chuckle especially Brown. He would have killed for 45% in a GE.
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
What is needed is a return to the principles of sub judice. Charging details should not be announced as a news event, nor should the media be permitted to report upon it. Details of trials should not be available until verdict is reached. Trial by media must end.
I would support a ban on the media from talking about the election during the campaign. The written media is not independent groups but run by media barons with an agenda that the public doesn't know. When the media publishes stories that are twisted to fit a narrative its totally irresponsible.
Britain would be a better country without newspapers.
Not a fan of freedom of speech, then; would you prefer a Ministry of Truth ?
Well (see above) Corbynistas are now admitting that it won't just be the 'rich' who lose out under Corbyn which is basically what they've been telling people. It will be most of the country, because of how they see what 'rich' is and it's not 80k.
It's interesting that even people earning 80k don't always see themselves as particularly well off! Matter of perspective I suspsect. The fact that most people believe themselves to be roughly average, but that there are a lot of people who are "rich" a couple of pay grades above them, must make a non-specific "we''ll help out the average Joe by taxing 'the Rich'" a very tempting electoral slogan.
That's true. Although I find it hard to not to see 80k as pretty well off, although it isn't top 1%.
Everything is relative, I earn a little less than 80k, but I and my wife, who earns a little less than me (but in the higher rate) don't have children, so in moneratry terms, we're a lot better off than those which do..
You do realise it is the marginal rate that will be going up. So anyone earning more 80k will still have net earnings higher than those earning less than 80k.
You do realise labours figures don't even start to add up....
I'm very pissed off that those on over £100k basically lose their personal allowance. I'm paying 60% marginal rate for a fair chunk of my salary above the cut off. I have a moral problem with tax rates over 50% in any band.
Yet you still live in the country? We need to fund government some how...
Con 45 seems to me to be bob-on1 I just think Lab. 40 is a typo and someone at IPSOS-Mori hit the 4 key rather than the 3 key in error.
Local anecdotal evidence here in The Vale of Glamorgan suggests Alun Cairns is turning it into a fortress-style Conservative hold.
Despite one or two banana skins Mrs May's Conservatives' top-line number has held firm for months. I do not believe Corbyn has increased 15 points over a few weeks, and even if those numbers have some foundation, factor in the reality that no one under 30 votes and he is back down to 25!
Maybe opinion polling data has been hijacked by Russia? I was fully expecting a full-on subversive intervention from the Kremlim. I suppose if we wake up to PM Dr Nuttall a week today, it happened!
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
Given the police have already passed this on to the CPS, who have already charged Mackinlay, it's a bit hard to see how the comment affects either of them. Moreover, it's a bit weird to say that someone who has been charged with an offence can't comment publicly on it.
Corbyn, not for the first time, is talking bollocks.
you can't have trial by jury on this case because of the coverage.
its like when steven gerrard was charged with assault. The evidence had a camera from a nightclub of him attacking an individual. The jury said not guilty. Why would liverpool fans vote for him to go to jail during the football season.
Trial by jury doesn't work for most figures in the public eye.
The trend in the polls since the election was called has not only been steeply in Labour's direction but the increase in the predicted Labour voteshare hasn't even slowed. If anything, it's going convex.
'She's like Brown, but without Gordon's social graces and joie de vivre'. LOL!
Brown was wrong about most things but he's an absolute political titan compared to Theresa.
She's taking a hammering today, and rightly so. But if this time next week, she has (as I still think quite possible) a 100+ majority, it'll be funny to read all the testimonials concerning the genius of her campaign.
I doubt anyone will be saying she ran a good campaign because she hasn't.
Rupert Murdoch endorses May because the tories have scrapped leverson.
Journalists and reporters still have a right to pretend to be relatives at funerals to get a story. The press still have a right to go through your rubbish on a daily basis without consent. The press still have a right to sit outside your house for a prolonged period of time and the police will do nothing about it.
If people didn't buy this trash, the scum wouldn't have work.
Article 11 Freedom of expression and information 1. Everyone has the right to freedom of expression. This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers. 2. The freedom and pluralism of the media shall be respected.
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
Absolute bullshit. If it had been a Labour Mp you would have heard Corbyn saying as much.
if you were a juror you would throw the case out because you've presumed the tories are innocent based on their reaction. They've smeared the judicial process.
I thought it was okay to claim you were innocent of charges, or does that fall under sub judice too?
no because the conservative mp involved said the cps have been irresponsible and this is all because an election is in one weeks time. disgraceful comment.
I picked it because of this reasons you state as well as it being close to the average salary. I just found it odd that you talked so much about graduates on 25k, however now I get why you did that.
Cheers. We fairly often seem to cross wires on here. I think it might be my writing style, making it unclear which aspects of my reply I believe apply to you. I also often write quite general replies, sometimes presenting alternative views (that I don't believe myself, nor wish to imply that whoever I am talking to holds) if I find them interesting or relevant. Think that can cause confusion too if you think I'm implying that they're what you think, and I'm trying to set up a straw man. (I don't "debate to win" on PB, I try to take a pluralistic, wide spectrum view of the world which is why I enjoy the variety here so much. If it ever seems I am getting heated, I'm almost certainly not.)
It's okay. I think that it's quite easy to misunderstand things online, but I'm glad you've told me this as now I have a future context for your posts, and I can avoid misunderstanding.
One week before the 2015 GE, with Ipsos MORI, Cameron had 17% lead over Miliband in the leader ratings.
Today Mrs May leads Corbyn by 4%
She's fucking terrible. Is it too late to ditch her?
Hmm... So you've been hearing the "health and Hammond" rumours too? Brenda may get her hands kissed twice, by two different male politicians, in the space of a fortnight.
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
What is needed is a return to the principles of sub judice. Charging details should not be announced as a news event, nor should the media be permitted to report upon it. Details of trials should not be available until verdict is reached. Trial by media must end.
I would support a ban on the media from talking about the election during the campaign. The written media is not independent groups but run by media barons with an agenda that the public doesn't know. When the media publishes stories that are twisted to fit a narrative its totally irresponsible.
Britain would be a better country without newspapers.
Not a fan of freedom of speech, then; would you prefer a Ministry of Truth ?
freedom of speech? these press barons defend their companies interests and the interests of shareholders and stakeholders. The press barons have no regard to protect the interests of the people but only twist the minds of the people to vote for people they endorse.
Afternoon all. Is anyone managing to keep up with 300 comments an hour? Been away working for a couple of days and worked out that new ones are being posted faster than it's possible to read the old ones!
Have we all agreed yet that this is the most bonkers election in living memory, that there's five figures of 1/4 available on Betfair for a hung parliament with less than a week to go and Spreadex midpoint is down to 366 Con seats (Well done OGH for selling at the top)? I think 369 should be a buy now, but f...ed if I can work out what's going on from more than 3,000 miles away!!
Rupert Murdoch endorses May because the tories have scrapped leverson.
Journalists and reporters still have a right to pretend to be relatives at funerals to get a story. The press still have a right to go through your rubbish on a daily basis without consent. The press still have a right to sit outside your house for a prolonged period of time and the police will do nothing about it.
If people didn't buy this trash, the scum wouldn't have work.
Article 11 Freedom of expression and information 1. Everyone has the right to freedom of expression. This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers. 2. The freedom and pluralism of the media shall be respected.
If I stand outside your house with a camera, I would be told to move by the police. A member of the press doesn't have to move.
If I go through your rubbish and find your personal details, I could get arrested. A member of the press can go through rubbish without any just cause.
Freedom of speech is not hate. Hate speech is not freedom. Freedom of speech is not making stuff up to fit an agenda of a press baron.
hate to say it but corbyn is right about south thanet
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said the Tories' decision to comment on the case could be seen as "interference" in an independent process. He said: "Nobody should be commenting on the details of an ongoing case, the police must be allowed to act independently, to investigate on the basis of any evidence they've got and the Crown Prosecution Service must be allowed to make its decision on whether to proceed on a case. "I think it is a very bad road when democratically elected politicians start offering a running commentary on independent judicial processes. We have to have total separation of political and judicial powers in this country."
Given the police have already passed this on to the CPS, who have already charged Mackinlay, it's a bit hard to see how the comment affects either of them. Moreover, it's a bit weird to say that someone who has been charged with an offence can't comment publicly on it.
Corbyn, not for the first time, is talking bollocks.
you can't have trial by jury on this case because of the coverage.
its like when steven gerrard was charged with assault. The evidence had a camera from a nightclub of him attacking an individual. The jury said not guilty. Why would liverpool fans vote for him to go to jail during the football season.
Trial by jury doesn't work for most figures in the public eye.
Even were I to agree with that, and having pretty near zero interest in football I can't comment on that case (though you might want to read up on mens rea), it's a completely different point to the one Corbyn was making.
In any event, the idea that any more than the most minuscule percentage of the population wouldn't convict someone just because they are a Tory MP is preposterous... as plenty of previous cases involving politicians have demonstrated.
'She's like Brown, but without Gordon's social graces and joie de vivre'. LOL!
Brown was wrong about most things but he's an absolute political titan compared to Theresa.
She's taking a hammering today, and rightly so. But if this time next week, she has (as I still think quite possible) a 100+ majority, it'll be funny to read all the testimonials concerning the genius of her campaign.
Well unsettling your core support really was crass and it was followed by her hectoring of journalists.
Nevertheless, there is a point about the care of old people in this country which was right to address. Tackling that through people's homes is a cracking piece of Marxist ideology and has horribly backfired.
I still think the Conservatives will win handsomely. The general mood isn't for Corbyn, whatever his acolytes might wish to think.
10% Tory lead I reckon: something like 44 - 34 or 45 - 35.
On twitter many Corbyn supporters genuinely believe that it'll be those on 80k who will 'pay' for all of the things in the manifesto. They've even been mocking those on 35k for not voting Corbyn, saying that they won't be taxed so why are they worried.
I'll be on £80k next year once the bonus kicks in. I should be paying more tax. The poor the sick the grafting yet reliant on foodbacks aren't undeserving, they are my neighbours and family and friends.
I've done very well for myself under the Tory government these last 7 years. But I'm ashamed of what this country has become under them, a society where we treat our pets better than we treat the disabled. It has to stop.
I picked it because of this reasons you state as well as it being close to the average salary. I just found it odd that you talked so much about graduates on 25k, however now I get why you did that.
I don't blame CD2Es and others for voting for Corbyn, or, indeed Brexit. I can't say I know exactly what life is like for them right now, but it must be pretty awful. I don't mind paying more taxes in the future - I'm reconciled to that - for better public services and to help the very poorest people. In 2015 I voted Labour because of Cameron's cuts to welfare. Those cuts were not going to affect me or my family - but they were going to affect some very vinerable people.
But in paying higher taxes, I also want my family to be able to pay our own bills as well. As long as that can happen, I'm okay.
Just to put all this talk about how awful life is for people at the bottom end of society in perspective, this is my neighbours house, where he lives with his wife and three children. He makes around $2 per day.
On twitter many Corbyn supporters genuinely believe that it'll be those on 80k who will 'pay' for all of the things in the manifesto. They've even been mocking those on 35k for not voting Corbyn, saying that they won't be taxed so why are they worried.
I'm getting nervous about this Question Time thing tonight. What if - in some kind of bizarre parody of Nixon and Kennedy - Theresa is all stuttering, sweaty and nervous and Jezza pulls off all the likeable panache of a (somewhat ageing) JFK?
Rupert Murdoch endorses May because the tories have scrapped leverson.
Journalists and reporters still have a right to pretend to be relatives at funerals to get a story. The press still have a right to go through your rubbish on a daily basis without consent. The press still have a right to sit outside your house for a prolonged period of time and the police will do nothing about it.
If people didn't buy this trash, the scum wouldn't have work.
Article 11 Freedom of expression and information 1. Everyone has the right to freedom of expression. This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers. 2. The freedom and pluralism of the media shall be respected.
If I stand outside your house with a camera, I would be told to move by the police. A member of the press doesn't have to move.
If I go through your rubbish and find your personal details, I could get arrested. A member of the press can go through rubbish without any just cause.
Freedom of speech is not hate. Hate speech is not freedom. Freedom of speech is not making stuff up to fit an agenda of a press baron.
Maybe so. But inside the EU your chances of doing anything about it are precisely zero. Which is to sort of reason why Corbyn underneath the public persona really doesnt like the EU at all, because it would stop him from doing all sorts of things he would like to do.
Rupert Murdoch endorses May because the tories have scrapped leverson.
Journalists and reporters still have a right to pretend to be relatives at funerals to get a story. The press still have a right to go through your rubbish on a daily basis without consent. The press still have a right to sit outside your house for a prolonged period of time and the police will do nothing about it.
If people didn't buy this trash, the scum wouldn't have work.
Article 11 Freedom of expression and information 1. Everyone has the right to freedom of expression. This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers. 2. The freedom and pluralism of the media shall be respected.
If I stand outside your house with a camera, I would be told to move by the police. A member of the press doesn't have to move.
If I go through your rubbish and find your personal details, I could get arrested. A member of the press can go through rubbish without any just cause.
YouGov is obviously checking back on its panel more frequently now; I have just had the VI yet again. I see that, having been nudging up the last couple of days, its Tory seat projection has today dropped from 318 to 313.
Edit/betting addition: Ilford North has moved from "leaning Labour" to "likely Labour" in the Yougov survey. On Betfair the odds have moved in progressively from 3/1 and are now 5/4. Given the strength of the local Labour ground game and the recent London poll this looks like value.
On twitter many Corbyn supporters genuinely believe that it'll be those on 80k who will 'pay' for all of the things in the manifesto. They've even been mocking those on 35k for not voting Corbyn, saying that they won't be taxed so why are they worried.
Twitter amplifies the crazy.
That sounds pretty tame compared to some of the stuff that normally comes up. Ed Miliband = Thatcher. Corbynites attacking 16 year old girls campaigning for Labour etc. etc. Never mind the vile abuse to all sorts of people... Best to just ignore them I think.
When I used twitter I found the only value was following experts in a field I wanted to learn more about, football trivia and occasionally funny videos/memes.
Yes, I think you're right. Twitter attracts people who have very polarising views by nature which leads to more moderate voices not getting a hearing.
'She's like Brown, but without Gordon's social graces and joie de vivre'. LOL!
Brown was wrong about most things but he's an absolute political titan compared to Theresa.
She's taking a hammering today, and rightly so. But if this time next week, she has (as I still think quite possible) a 100+ majority, it'll be funny to read all the testimonials concerning the genius of her campaign.
I doubt anyone will be saying she ran a good campaign because she hasn't.
It's been a poor campaign, but nowhere near as poor as people are saying atm. I reckon her problem has been expectations. The media love stories, and unfortunately for May and the Conservatives, Corbyn being an idiot and Labour's unelectability are not stories that will particularly interest their readers. It's all been said before.
But the Conservatives imploding is a story. It's entropy; it's change, and that means interest.
There's no way the media were going to spend a month running on only 'The Conservatives are going to get a landslide'. There had to be something else, so every misstep they have made has been reported on endlessly.
But yes, the mistakes have been their own. Just a few weeks ago we were talking about the brand being May and not the Conservatives; she should have continued playing to that instead of cowering away from debate.
My main issue is that I still don't know what May stands for. There seems to be an awful lot of waffle and no substance (*). Still, at least she's not Leadsom ...
Comments
There’s a danger that we’re underestimating the Labour leader
Outside of the Corbynites, the idée reçue amongst most of us is that Jeremy Corbyn leading Labour at a general election is going to lead Labour to experiencing an extinction level electoral defeat. On my most charitable days I’ll say Jeremy Corbyn has only two flaws, everything he says, and everything he does, but I’m going to challenge that perception and defend Jeremy Corbyn. .....
...Those expecting Jeremy Corbyn to comport himself at the next general election with all the dignity, competence, and elan of a man who has just accidentally inserted his penis and scrotum into a hornets’ nest might be surprised at just how well Corbyn does at the next general election, in the past year nobody has become rich by underestimating Jeremy Corbyn.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/08/30/in-praise-of-jeremy-corbyn/
Edgbaston - tory gain
Hove - labour hold
Chorley - Labour hold
cardiff north - labour
copeland - could be like corby in 2015. dont know
plymouth - labour gain (tory vote ceiling to low)
wakefield - labour hold
ealing - labour hold (tories wont improve their vote on 2015)
vale of clwyd - tory hold
The bottom line was this was a conservative plot to do anything at all costs to prevent farage from winning.
She has the negative midas touch.
Polling isn't giving us any clarity anymore. All its given us is endless confusion.
Amother 800 this one assuming Tories LT 399.5
That would be stinging, if the ratings weren't curiously similar to Thatcher and Cameron at this point, rather than Brown.
The thing is, 80k with a non-working spouse and three children, paying a London mortgage is *completely* different to being a single person earning 80k in the North East, or an 80k mortgage-free empty nester etc.
It's never just about ones base salary level. So many other factors come into play. There are retirees out there now who maybe never earned more than 25k in their lives but who now have considerable wealth and are more comfortable and 'well off' than their children earning close to 80k.
Britain would be a better country without newspapers.
That sounds pretty tame compared to some of the stuff that normally comes up.
Ed Miliband = Thatcher. Corbynites attacking 16 year old girls campaigning for Labour etc. etc. Never mind the vile abuse to all sorts of people... Best to just ignore them I think.
When I used twitter I found the only value was following experts in a field I wanted to learn more about, football trivia and occasionally funny videos/memes.
Journalists and reporters still have a right to pretend to be relatives at funerals to get a story. The press still have a right to go through your rubbish on a daily basis without consent. The press still have a right to sit outside your house for a prolonged period of time and the police will do nothing about it.
If people didn't buy this trash, the scum wouldn't have work.
Corbyn, not for the first time, is talking bollocks.
FWIW my circle helped me accurately predict GE2015 while odds were crazy !
Better hope for BrExit if you want that, not a chance of doing it in the EU because of the Charter of Fundamental Rights (Article 11)
We need to fund government some how...
Local anecdotal evidence here in The Vale of Glamorgan suggests Alun Cairns is turning it into a fortress-style Conservative hold.
Despite one or two banana skins Mrs May's Conservatives' top-line number has held firm for months. I do not believe Corbyn has increased 15 points over a few weeks, and even if those numbers have some foundation, factor in the reality that no one under 30 votes and he is back down to 25!
Maybe opinion polling data has been hijacked by Russia? I was fully expecting a full-on subversive intervention from the Kremlim. I suppose if we wake up to PM Dr Nuttall a week today, it happened!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhIMAeBW1Pg
its like when steven gerrard was charged with assault. The evidence had a camera from a nightclub of him attacking an individual. The jury said not guilty. Why would liverpool fans vote for him to go to jail during the football season.
Trial by jury doesn't work for most figures in the public eye.
5 mins on twitter will show you the dark side of some of Corbyn's fans.
Today Mrs May leads Corbyn by 4%
She's fucking terrible. Is it too late to ditch her?
Freedom of expression and information
1. Everyone has the right to freedom of expression. This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers.
2. The freedom and pluralism of the media shall be respected.
We'll find out.
Have we all agreed yet that this is the most bonkers election in living memory, that there's five figures of 1/4 available on Betfair for a hung parliament with less than a week to go and Spreadex midpoint is down to 366 Con seats (Well done OGH for selling at the top)? I think 369 should be a buy now, but f...ed if I can work out what's going on from more than 3,000 miles away!!
It's from Buck Rodgers
If I go through your rubbish and find your personal details, I could get arrested. A member of the press can go through rubbish without any just cause.
Freedom of speech is not hate. Hate speech is not freedom. Freedom of speech is not making stuff up to fit an agenda of a press baron.
In any event, the idea that any more than the most minuscule percentage of the population wouldn't convict someone just because they are a Tory MP is preposterous... as plenty of previous cases involving politicians have demonstrated.
Nevertheless, there is a point about the care of old people in this country which was right to address. Tackling that through people's homes is a cracking piece of Marxist ideology and has horribly backfired.
I still think the Conservatives will win handsomely. The general mood isn't for Corbyn, whatever his acolytes might wish to think.
10% Tory lead I reckon: something like 44 - 34 or 45 - 35.
I've done very well for myself under the Tory government these last 7 years. But I'm ashamed of what this country has become under them, a society where we treat our pets better than we treat the disabled. It has to stop.
Wait until opinion polls sampled from Monday onwards.
Does it work though.
Thanks for sharing. Perspective indeed!
We will all pay more tax. A lot more.
Edit/betting addition: Ilford North has moved from "leaning Labour" to "likely Labour" in the Yougov survey. On Betfair the odds have moved in progressively from 3/1 and are now 5/4. Given the strength of the local Labour ground game and the recent London poll this looks like value.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PrcpbuhIm0
But the Conservatives imploding is a story. It's entropy; it's change, and that means interest.
There's no way the media were going to spend a month running on only 'The Conservatives are going to get a landslide'. There had to be something else, so every misstep they have made has been reported on endlessly.
But yes, the mistakes have been their own. Just a few weeks ago we were talking about the brand being May and not the Conservatives; she should have continued playing to that instead of cowering away from debate.
My main issue is that I still don't know what May stands for. There seems to be an awful lot of waffle and no substance (*). Still, at least she's not Leadsom ...
(*) A bit like my posts.
Corbyn is Perkins
Errrrr ok.