The commonality of all these polls of course is that the Tory vote share is 44-45%. So Labour's surge is coming from elsewhere and may dependent on them squeezing smaller parties and adding more nonvoters for it to continue.
But the LDs an the Greens have barely changed, it's just Con -> Lab swing.
Well I did say nonvoters as well as smaller parties.
LD - gone down a bit as campaign has gone on. Apparently a few kippers have moved to Labour as well. It's not Con Lab swing as Con vote share has stayed relatively stable.
Silly question ....When we saw the cleggasm, did we see it fall back in the polls prior to the day or was lib dem percentage overstated until actual voting?
Because we saw thus big poll surge after "I agree with nick" and lots of big crowds excitedly supporting him, but when did it actually fall back?
I wonder if it is worth resurrecting the free owls promise for Corbyn. After he has tried to bribe the electorate in other way possible. Labour should be on 90%, not 40% with everything that has been promised.
The big problem with political polling is that it has to be all of 3 things:
- Accurate - Cost effective - Fast
The British electoral study has been shown to be very accurate but is also far too slow to be used in the same way as current polls are.
One thing I have been thinking about is the level of incentives that these studies pay. I work in healthcare research and if we do a 20 minute survey with a doctor we will pay them in the region of £20-30. If you do a 20 minute survey on a consumer site you will paid 50p or given a prize draw entry. This means these sorts of surveys will only appeal to people who are cash poor, time rich and to people who are very interested in doing surveys. As far as I am aware phone polls don't offer any incentive at all.
So you could put up incentives to say £5 per 5 minutes but this then clashes with point number 2 about being cost effective.
The other thing I would consider along with putting up incentives is trying to set up a closed panel for political research. By a closed panel, I mean rather than letting everyone join, use the electoral roll to segment the electorate by national demographics and then randomly invite people to participate within each segment. With an approach like this you would need to allow longer in field (say a week) and to be prepared to use phone to chase up people who don't participate straight away but this would hopefully prove more accurate.
There is no money in consumer market research.
Doctors in any field don't get paid for doing any market research over the phone with the company I'm affiliated with. We do work for the big drug companies undisclosed and request interviews from 20-60mins.
Big money in market research is in the big corporate companies. Brokers/financial advisors think they get called a lot for market research but the jobs are poorly paid. A market research company can charge millions for 4-5k interviews with big corporate companies over a 3 month period.
I think we may in a position where we head into polling day with the polls looking all tied, but a late swing like 2015 will mean a fairly large Con majority. I think the final polls will be 43-40 but the final result will be 47-36 and give the Tories a 100+ majority. The more I speak to people who want to vote Corbyn the more scared they are becoming of him actually winning. Whatever one thinks of May, you know what you're going to get with her - slightly incompetent but fairly solid. With Corbyn it's a huge leap into the unknown.
Given the polls, and the trend, the chances of a Hung Parliament are about 2/1, or 5/2 which means the 7/2 on offer is VALUE?
If the Tories get 44%+ it won't be a hung parliament.
The trend, my friend, the trend.
The trend of the Tory vote share is it has been 45% within margin of error for ages. There is no trend.
The Tories are very slowly edging down. Labour are surging. Extrapolating the trend on nearly all pollsters puts the Tories on about 42-44 by next Thursday, and Labour on, say, 39-42?
That is painfully close, and it means a tiny Tory majority or Hung Parliament with Theresa handing over to Amber or Boris as PM. And another election in a year?
Chaos. But there we are.
The trend can't continue: there aren't enough UKIP votes left: they were down to 2% in today's Mori. Some new trend must become established, even if that is 'no change'.
You forget direct CON > LAB switchers. Labour only need 1 or 2 points from this source, and bingo.
There has to be some for the numbers to add up. Apart from differential turnout, the Conservatives did usefully better in marginals than their average figures. Will they repeat that this time?
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
The big problem with political polling is that it has to be all of 3 things:
- Accurate - Cost effective - Fast
The British electoral study has been shown to be very accurate but is also far too slow to be used in the same way as current polls are.
One thing I have been thinking about is the level of incentives that these studies pay. I work in healthcare research and if we do a 20 minute survey with a doctor we will pay them in the region of £20-30. If you do a 20 minute survey on a consumer site you will paid 50p or given a prize draw entry. This means these sorts of surveys will only appeal to people who are cash poor, time rich and to people who are very interested in doing surveys. As far as I am aware phone polls don't offer any incentive at all.
So you could put up incentives to say £5 per 5 minutes but this then clashes with point number 2 about being cost effective.
The other thing I would consider along with putting up incentives is trying to set up a closed panel for political research. By a closed panel, I mean rather than letting everyone join, use the electoral roll to segment the electorate by national demographics and then randomly invite people to participate within each segment. With an approach like this you would need to allow longer in field (say a week) and to be prepared to use phone to chase up people who don't participate straight away but this would hopefully prove more accurate.
The other consideration is that political polls pay nothing or not very much in return for a substantial block of time. It should be possible to cut the time right back by dropping most of the supplementary questions. Who will you vote for? And one or at most two other questions to be rotated around respondents. Time taken, 20 seconds not 20 minutes.
The company I'm affiliated at doesn't do any political polls because we charge to much money and its not something we want to be doing as interviewers are on the big corporate jobs.
Following the 2008 London election when MORI wrongly showed Ken Livingstone ahead of Boris Johnson they conducted a review of their methodology. This found that their samples had too many public sector workers, something that presumably increased Labour support in their polls. Since then MORI have been weighting by public sector employment along with all their normal demographics.
My problem with this is that none of the measures they weight on are facts, they are all reported by the sample member, and therefore subject to being gamed. This is particularly a concern when it is polling a panel, as people in the know could easily falsify their credentials to maximise their chances of being included in a sample, and maximise the impact they have. Not remotely beyond the wit of an organisation like Momentum to set this up.
The repeated sampling of members of this forum over the past few weeks suggests the effective size of their pools or mailing lists is actually quite small, and hence the margin of error, and succeptibility and sensitivity to being gamed are that much larger.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
A Tory majority of 50 seats and keeping Corbyn in charge of the oppostion would be a nice result for the blues. Ensures the benches aren't too crowded and might lead to a split in the Labour party.
It's terrible for the country...This GE has legitimised corbynism, it's here to stay now...That scary is as hell...
Would we be where we are had Boris withdrawn not prematurely 11 months ago?
I don't think anyone thought that May would be such a poor campaigner. Had she been exposed to the party membership (against a heavyweight opponent i.e. not Leadsom), this might have become clear before it mattered.
That said, *would* it have become clear? She didn't have a reputation as a poor interviewee before the election and her serious demeanour might still have proven enough against a Boris who still had (and has) several question marks against him.
All water under the bridge - perhaps (Boris is 8/1 with PP and 25/1 to be PM on 1 July with Ladbrokes) - but worth pondering all the same.
As I said yesterday, if there'd been no Tory leadership contest in 2005 it would have been David Davis as leader, not Cameron. No one even knew who DC was before that campaign.
Leadership elections are very healthy things to have.
In their impatience for party unity, the Tories may have lost the country.
Angela Leadsome was worse than May. Thankfully we were spared that contest which would have been horrible.
He has already said he will vote Labour but endorsed tactical voting for the LDs
More useful would be Branson and/or Sugar coming out and saying 'Corbyn will destroy the economy, and put mortgage rates and inflation through the roof'.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Brilliant post, I agree with it 100%.
Yeah and if people are hating life now imagine how much worse it will be under Corbyn. Turkeys voting for Christmas and all that.
Saw a poll of those working in higher education. 50% voting Labour, next Lib Dems on around 25%, Tories at 7%.
How would the removal of tuition fees impact on the financing of HE? Would be a bit of a shock to the system to implement in around 3-months.
The government would have to find £10bn per year to replace funding and begin rationing university places again. The unfortunate side effect is that popular courses like Medicine and ComSci end up with not enough places for too many people while shitty courses like management studies have too many places for too few, ending up in an inefficient allocation of resources, both monetarily and in terms of students ending up studying a subject they don't want to.
We could be looking at a country more horribly divided young against old than it seemed it would be Brexit against remain. If this is close, there will be huge ill feeling on both sides. Brexiteers will be livid if it's a HP.
Brexit largely WAS young against old.
this election could be the revenge of the young against the old for voting brexit
Yes it could well be. My local LibDems leaflet called themselves the anti-Brexit party and Trafford was 67/33 for Remain. In 2015 Labour came 2nd and about 13,000 votes behind. In 2010 the LDs came 2nd and about 12,000 votes behind.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Yes.
What's shocked me about the inept Tory campaign, is that when TMay got in, she gave a very one nation Tory speech about the issues facing the hard pressed working population. If she had followed through on that in the manifesto, we wouldn't be looking at polls like this now.
Given the polls, and the trend, the chances of a Hung Parliament are about 2/1, or 5/2 which means the 7/2 on offer is VALUE?
If the Tories get 44%+ it won't be a hung parliament.
The trend, my friend, the trend.
The trend of the Tory vote share is it has been 45% within margin of error for ages. There is no trend.
The Tories are very slowly edging down. Labour are surging. Extrapolating the trend on nearly all pollsters puts the Tories on about 42-44 by next Thursday, and Labour on, say, 39-42?
That is painfully close, and it means a tiny Tory majority or Hung Parliament with Theresa handing over to Amber or Boris as PM. And another election in a year?
Chaos. But there we are.
The trend can't continue: there aren't enough UKIP votes left: they were down to 2% in today's Mori. Some new trend must become established, even if that is 'no change'.
You forget direct CON > LAB switchers. Labour only need 1 or 2 points from this source, and bingo.
The polls are still showing a very small net swing from 2015 Labour to 2017 Tory, Corbyn's net gains are all coming from the LDs and Greens and a lesser extent UKIP and the SNP. The Tories are making a big net gain from UKIP and the SNP and a small net loss to the LDs
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Brilliant post, I agree with it 100%.
Yeah and if people are hating life now imagine how much worse it will be under Corbyn. Turkeys voting for Christmas and all that.
Well, exactly. Can only hope a Labour minority government would limit what he could do.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Quite simply the best PB post of the campaign so far. You nailed it mate.
Election Expenses. I know someone who gave £10,000 to an mps campaign in 2015 (not in south thanet) to a tory mp to stop ukip getting in. When I heard this, I was certain, but said nothing, that this broke election law.
Can a constituent living in a seat give £10,000 to an mp?
Yes, why not? It has to be declared, and the donor has to be on the electoral roll (but not necessariy in the same constituency).
It wasn't declared.
You can check on the Electoral Commission's website whether it was declared or not. If not, you should, I'm afraid, report it. It may well be that you've misunderstood something and when it's checked they'll be able to reassure you - as Richard says, if it was reported then it's entirely legal and proper. But you shouldn't leave it unreported if you honestly believe that a crime was committed.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Yes, apart from the nasty bit, people have decided to ignore reality.
Here's the trouble: nothing can be done about it until the economy grows very strongly again, and the deficit is closed.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Well that was the biggest error of the manifesto, fighting on Labour's turf and then declaring that the Tory party will steal your house that you've spent the last 30 years paying off because, unfortunately, you had the temerity to fall ill.
I think Jez's foreign policy speech may have been a turning point. No focus group would have advised that speech yet he did it, Trump like anyway. THat and May's dementia tax.
Mind-blowing. I now think she is toast, no matter what happens. There is no way she will ever fight another campaign. So the question is, when does she resign? A month? A year? If she gets a very small majority, almost immediately. If she loses her majority, immediately.
She's a dead woman walking. I genuinely feel sorry for her.
I guess she has one last chance to save this: tonight. She needs that one dazzling performance and she needs Jezza to say Fuck the Queen. I'm not hopeful.
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Comrade...you have a brain on you.....
It is, in five paragraphs, a wonderful summary for the campaign so far.
The most amazing thing is that, prima facie, Labour's sweet shop is better costed than the Conservative's punishment cell. Regardless of the outcome of this election, the Labour team deserve some congratulation.
We could be looking at a country more horribly divided young against old than it seemed it would be Brexit against remain. If this is close, there will be huge ill feeling on both sides. Brexiteers will be livid if it's a HP.
Brexit largely WAS young against old.
this election could be the revenge of the young against the old for voting brexit
I was just thinking exactly the same thing. Dangerous inter-generational stuff if true.
Mind-blowing. I now think she is toast, no matter what happens. There is no way she will ever fight another campaign. So the question is, when does she resign? A month? A year? If she gets a very small majority, almost immediately. If she loses her majority, immediately.
She's a dead woman walking. I genuinely feel sorry for her.
I guess she has one last chance to save this: tonight. She needs that one dazzling performance and she needs Jezza to say Fuck the Queen. I'm not hopeful.
Rubbish, Blair had a net negative in 2001 and win a landslide as often did Thatcher when she won, 43% positive is more than enough to win
For how long does "reality" have to mean the richest in society getting ever wealthier while the vast majority 'just about manage', and some get totally left behind?
Until the gap between the top 1% and the rest starts to close up, we're moving in the *wrong direction*. The turnaround isn't going to be made under a Tory government, fresh thinking is needed. Corbyn isn't perfect but he's at least asking the right questions.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Interesting and understood. Makes me even happier in my Spanish retirement where my Teacher's pension would no doubt fall again with the £ following a hung parliament or worse but I have a very large savings buffer well away from McDonnell's grasping hands so like most comfortably off I will be ok. However, the masses will be massively let down by a Corbyn government - most of us over 60 know that this is a script which ends with the IMF and austerity on a big scale - see Greece for details.
I wonder when the British will learn to live within their means - it is very sad that the literature which gave us Micawber is so little read and understood by our over-indulged children.
He has already said he will vote Labour but endorsed tactical voting for the LDs
More useful would be Branson and/or Sugar coming out and saying 'Corbyn will destroy the economy, and put mortgage rates and inflation through the roof'.
Election Expenses. I know someone who gave £10,000 to an mps campaign in 2015 (not in south thanet) to a tory mp to stop ukip getting in. When I heard this, I was certain, but said nothing, that this broke election law.
Can a constituent living in a seat give £10,000 to an mp?
Yes, why not? It has to be declared, and the donor has to be on the electoral roll (but not necessariy in the same constituency).
It wasn't declared.
You can check on the Electoral Commission's website whether it was declared or not. If not, you should, I'm afraid, report it. It may well be that you've misunderstood something and when it's checked they'll be able to reassure you - as Richard says, if it was reported then it's entirely legal and proper. But you shouldn't leave it unreported if you honestly believe that a crime was committed.
Thanks, I will check out of curiosity.
I thought an mp had a limit to how much they could spend on campaigning for an individual seat. How can Labour compete against any tory candidate as they could just hold a dinner and raise thousands of pounds by inviting residents living in the most expensive streets in the constituency.
what is the best english speaking country to emigrate to?
Yorkshire.
Failing that, Canada?
Whats the feeling on the ground in Wakefield & Morley ?
Still quite positive, to be honest (talking Wakefield here: M&O became an independent Association once it had its own Conservative MP). We're still finding switchers direct from Labour and losing virtually none the other way. As far as I can tell, we're picking up the bulk of UKIP voters too.
I've heard positive things about the postal votes but would take that with a pinch of salt as it's at best third-hand information based on what can be seen through the backs of the papers.
We could be looking at a country more horribly divided young against old than it seemed it would be Brexit against remain. If this is close, there will be huge ill feeling on both sides. Brexiteers will be livid if it's a HP.
Brexit largely WAS young against old.
this election could be the revenge of the young against the old for voting brexit
I was just thinking exactly the same thing. Dangerous inter-generational stuff if true.
A lot of people among my age group resent the older generation for voting for Brexit, as the consequences of Brexit will hit them, and not pensioners.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Yes, apart from the nasty bit, people have decided to ignore reality.
Here's the trouble: nothing can be done about it until the economy grows very strongly again, and the deficit is closed.
Sorry.
There are things that could be done, Nick Timothy just isn't smart enough to think of them. If the government had said from 2019 we're going to limit the state pension to 1% per year growth for five years and use the savings to fully fund social care not a single person would have batted an eyelid, in fact most would have said it's a good policy with pensioners paying for their own care rather than making working people pay for their parents, children's and their own care all at the same time. No property theft, no targeting people who have been unfortunate enough to be ill, just a bit of fiscal drag for pensioners who have had it very good over the last 7 years.
My problem with this is that none of the measures they weight on are facts, they are all reported by the sample member, and therefore subject to being gamed. This is particularly a concern when it is polling a panel, as people in the know could easily falsify their credentials to maximise their chances of being included in a sample, and maximise the impact they have. Not remotely beyond the wit of an organisation like Momentum to set this up.
I've no idea if it is happening in the case, but you are right that there is a lot of gaming of polling, consumer rewards, microwork and the like. How do pollsters verify what users claim to be facts?
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Agree entirely but with the caveat that I don't think the visceral dislike of Corbyn in many quarters has gone away, nor is he, yet, seen as more capable. There is genuine concern that he can't take his party with him. It's getting very messy.
Saw a poll of those working in higher education. 50% voting Labour, next Lib Dems on around 25%, Tories at 7%.
How would the removal of tuition fees impact on the financing of HE? Would be a bit of a shock to the system to implement in around 3-months.
The government would have to find £10bn per year to replace funding and begin rationing university places again. The unfortunate side effect is that popular courses like Medicine and ComSci end up with not enough places for too many people while shitty courses like management studies have too many places for too few, ending up in an inefficient allocation of resources, both monetarily and in terms of students ending up studying a subject they don't want to.
Most academics have little concern of such matters. As long as they can get research grants in a way teaching is a annoyance to them getting on with what they enjoy doing and they won't get the sack especially if they have research money. And in general shitty subjects are cheap.to put on, where as the likes of chemistry cost unis to put on.
We could be looking at a country more horribly divided young against old than it seemed it would be Brexit against remain. If this is close, there will be huge ill feeling on both sides. Brexiteers will be livid if it's a HP.
Brexit largely WAS young against old.
this election could be the revenge of the young against the old for voting brexit
I was just thinking exactly the same thing. Dangerous inter-generational stuff if true.
Except that it will be the next generation(s) that have to pay for all this. If I'm an 18 year old voting for Corbyn now, I'll be paying back the debt for the rest of my life, in part so that pensioners can have the triple lock and free social care. It will simply make the inter-generational injustice worse.
If the Tories win an 80-100 majority can we promise never to take Polls seriously again?
If they remain as now then answer is no, but I'll be waiting to see the last polls with a great deal of interest to see if they herd and which way.
No we can still have ICM and Comres which are the only polls who have bothered to learn and weigh their polls based on 2015 turnout demographic unlike yougov and Mori who don't
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Yes, apart from the nasty bit, people have decided to ignore reality.
Here's the trouble: nothing can be done about it until the economy grows very strongly again, and the deficit is closed.
Sorry.
People already ignored reality once with Brexit (and again with Trump).....
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Comrade...you have a brain on you.....
I think it's less the austerity, more the alarming levels of inequality and 'welfare reforms' and sanctions which lead some claimants to kill themselves. Inequality has the same effect on very poor people as austerity.
We had severe austerity in the 1970s, when Healey was chancellor. But we were definitely more 'all in this together'.
Mind-blowing. I now think she is toast, no matter what happens. There is no way she will ever fight another campaign. So the question is, when does she resign? A month? A year? If she gets a very small majority, almost immediately. If she loses her majority, immediately.
She's a dead woman walking. I genuinely feel sorry for her.
I guess she has one last chance to save this: tonight. She needs that one dazzling performance and she needs Jezza to say Fuck the Queen. I'm not hopeful.
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I don't think May was ever going to fight more than one election whatever happened, even if the result had been a 25 point Tory victory as the polls were saying at the start of the campaign. Serve five years as PM and then let someone else take over about a year before the next election would have been her plan all along.
what is the best english speaking country to emigrate to?
Yorkshire.
Failing that, Canada?
Whats the feeling on the ground in Wakefield & Morley ?
Still quite positive, to be honest (talking Wakefield here: M&O became an independent Association once it had its own Conservative MP). We're still finding switchers direct from Labour and losing virtually none the other way. As far as I can tell, we're picking up the bulk of UKIP voters too.
I've heard positive things about the postal votes but would take that with a pinch of salt as it's at best third-hand information based on what can be seen through the backs of the papers.
Are you finding any half term effect (people out or not interested)?
Mind-blowing. I now think she is toast, no matter what happens. There is no way she will ever fight another campaign. So the question is, when does she resign? A month? A year? If she gets a very small majority, almost immediately. If she loses her majority, immediately.
She's a dead woman walking. I genuinely feel sorry for her.
I guess she has one last chance to save this: tonight. She needs that one dazzling performance and she needs Jezza to say Fuck the Queen. I'm not hopeful.
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if she will get the chance to do Brexit. I suspect most Tory MPs are Soft Brexiteers, 80% of parliament will be Soft Brexit.
Will a badly weakened prime minister, evidently living on borrowed time, and never going to fight another election, have the power and authority to push through her vision of Brexit? Especially when the EU says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
If they do the response should be See You Next Tuesday
I still think May will win handsomely on the day, 50-80 majority, not a landslide but decent enough.
For all that PB talks about toxic Corbyn (and I also thought he would be toxic) it seems that the IRA stuff really isn't cutting through with the floating voters.
Plus he seems to have inspired a Bernie like momentum with youths. Now, the classic assumption is that youths don't turn up, and that's probably correct. But the EU ref assumptions were based on non voters not turning up, all forecasts of a leave victory assumed a low turnout not a high one. I think we may actually see big youth turnout for once. Bernie only lost to Hillary because of his weakness with minority voters, which doesn't really apply to more white Britain.
Bernie lost because of their weird super delegate system, which some people say is rigged (we can say at the very least the RNC big whigs didnt want him and did everything possible to stop him).
The thing is the comparison sort of stops there...Sanders isn't a terrorist sympathizer, he hadn't taken money from states that kills gays, doesn't surround himself with Marxists and antisemites...
Sanders lost by 400 (10%) of pledged delegates and 12% of the vote. Admittedly Hilary hoovered up over 80% of unpledged delegates- something to do with her being a longstanding member of the party, unlike Sanders - but that altered the size of the margin, not the result.
A similar outcome here of 44-32 and a majority of 60-odd would be very satisfactory for May.
But I don't agree Corbyn would stay. I think now he has whipped up such a frenzy of expectation that his defeat will shatter the Labour left for good. That may even be the intention of the pollsters looking at where they are coming from. If Corbyn had lost from the leads at the start, most people would have thought 'meh'. But now, his supporters genuinely think he will win, as we see here.
This is their one shot. If they do not win this, now, they will really never have a chance again.
Interesting and understood. Makes me even happier in my Spanish retirement where my Teacher's pension would no doubt fall again with the £ following a hung parliament or worse but I have a very large savings buffer well away from McDonnell's grasping hands so like most comfortably off I will be ok. However, the masses will be massively let down by a Corbyn government - most of us over 60 know that this is a script which ends with the IMF and austerity on a big scale - see Greece for details.
I wonder when the British will learn to live within their means - it is very sad that the literature which gave us Micawber is so little read and understood by our over-indulged children.
Care to bet on whether the IMF will be called in (assuming a Corbyn PM)? 20 quid to a charity of your choice/my choice says they won't...
What's intersting is that the Tories seem very solid in the mid 40s - having unsplit the right. It's Labour that is gobbling up the lefty share - apparently unsplitting the left. LDs, Greens, UKIP, all the minor parties are a waste of time now. I think the election now hangs on lefty tunrnout.
Most definitely. I'd love to hear from the following: 1. Someone part of the Tory camapign. Is there panic or confidence? 2. Anyone knocking in a Midlands/Northern marginal. Have things really changed that much in 2/3 weeks?
Yes - the change has been mostly that former Labour voters who have been all over the place - LibDem, Green, UKIP, even a few Tories - who were frankly unsure three weeks ago and "well, probably" (=don't know in canvasser speak) are now sounding solid and keen - they are getting caught up in the "amazing horserace" atmosphere. The Tory vote remains solid though a touch demotivated.
For how long does "reality" have to mean the richest in society getting ever wealthier while the vast majority 'just about manage', and some get totally left behind?
Until the gap between the top 1% and the rest starts to close up, we're moving in the *wrong direction*. The turnaround isn't going to be made under a Tory government, fresh thinking is needed. Corbyn isn't perfect but he's at least asking the right questions.
I am not part of the 'richest' in society. I earn under 25k, and my mum earns just over 25k. I do not see how Corbynism would mean a better life for me and my family.
Mind-blowing. I now think she is toast, no matter what happens. There is no way she will ever fight another campaign. So the question is, when does she resign? A month? A year? If she gets a very small majority, almost immediately. If she loses her majority, immediately.
She's a dead woman walking. I genuinely feel sorry for her.
I guess she has one last chance to save this: tonight. She needs that one dazzling performance and she needs Jezza to say Fuck the Queen. I'm not hopeful.
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if she will get the chance to do Brexit. I suspect most Tory MPs are Soft Brexiteers, 80% of parliament will be Soft Brexit.
Will a badly weakened prime minister, evidently living on borrowed time, and never going to fight another election, have the power and authority to push through her vision of Brexit? Especially when the EU says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
They will want her to own it. I also think if she walks away with a "no deal" resolution that sees us move to WTO terms the Tories will win a 150-200 majority. It will be Dave's vetogasm multiplied by 10. The British public absolute love it when we tell the EU to fuck off, and if they have unreasonable demands then doubly so.
One of the biggest changes in the polling since pre-election is that the retention rate has levelled up. Before the election, Labour was routinely keeping 75% or fewer of their 2015 vote against 90%+ of 2015 Cons. The most recent YouGov had Lab keeping 83%, against 85% for Con, among those with a current voting preference, or a 74-72 lead if DKs/WNVs are included.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Agree entirely but with the caveat that I don't think the visceral dislike of Corbyn in many quarters has gone away, nor is he, yet, seen as more capable. There is genuine concern that he can't take his party with him. It's getting very messy.
Practicality will come into the mix. If Corbyn does get 250 seats and if the Tories are denied a majority, forget the 175 MPs who voted in a no-confidence motion. Barely 25 will be left of that lot.
If Corbyn did get close to 40% of the votes, what would be the argument from anti-Corbynites ? We would have got 45% ?
What's intersting is that the Tories seem very solid in the mid 40s - having unsplit the right. It's Labour that is gobbling up the lefty share - apparently unsplitting the left. LDs, Greens, UKIP, all the minor parties are a waste of time now. I think the election now hangs on lefty tunrnout.
Most definitely. I'd love to hear from the following: 1. Someone part of the Tory camapign. Is there panic or confidence? 2. Anyone knocking in a Midlands/Northern marginal. Have things really changed that much in 2/3 weeks?
Yes - the change has been mostly that former Labour voters who have been all over the place - LibDem, Green, UKIP, even a few Tories - who were frankly unsure three weeks ago and "well, probably" (=don't know in canvasser speak) are now sounding solid and keen - they are getting caught up in the "amazing horserace" atmosphere. The Tory vote remains solid though a touch demotivated.
That fits - my other half's parents have 'come home' to Labour. One a retired GP, the other a retired prof.
What's intersting is that the Tories seem very solid in the mid 40s - having unsplit the right. It's Labour that is gobbling up the lefty share - apparently unsplitting the left. LDs, Greens, UKIP, all the minor parties are a waste of time now. I think the election now hangs on lefty tunrnout.
Most definitely. I'd love to hear from the following: 1. Someone part of the Tory camapign. Is there panic or confidence? 2. Anyone knocking in a Midlands/Northern marginal. Have things really changed that much in 2/3 weeks?
Yes - the change has been mostly that former Labour voters who have been all over the place - LibDem, Green, UKIP, even a few Tories - who were frankly unsure three weeks ago and "well, probably" (=don't know in canvasser speak) are now sounding solid and keen - they are getting caught up in the "amazing horserace" atmosphere. The Tory vote remains solid though a touch demotivated.
Well that was the biggest error of the manifesto, fighting on Labour's turf and then declaring that the Tory party will steal your house that you've spent the last 30 years paying off because, unfortunately, you had the temerity to fall ill.
It'll tick you off, but this is one of the main reasons I voted for Corbyn.
The Conservatives have, historically, often been ideologically flexible - recently (though it seems an age ago, how fast times change!) Osborne's living wage was pleasantly radical.
With the centre-ground freed up, I thought there might be more scope for the Tories to occupy, if not Labour's lawn exactly, then at least the radical centre.
You'd probably feel it's played out that way all too well. (Though I'd agree with @RochdalePioneers that the Tory manifesto was in many ways quite a "nasty" one, surprisingly so when May had been so ebulliently One Nation in her post-coronation speeches.)
what is the best english speaking country to emigrate to?
Yorkshire.
Failing that, Canada?
Whats the feeling on the ground in Wakefield & Morley ?
Still quite positive, to be honest (talking Wakefield here: M&O became an independent Association once it had its own Conservative MP). We're still finding switchers direct from Labour and losing virtually none the other way. As far as I can tell, we're picking up the bulk of UKIP voters too.
I've heard positive things about the postal votes but would take that with a pinch of salt as it's at best third-hand information based on what can be seen through the backs of the papers.
Second hand anecdata from labour canvassers is that Mary Creagh's pro-Eu stance is the only bad feedback. They're increasingly confident.
Think it must be misplaced. A lot of leave voters would have to vote for one of the most Pro-Eu politicians in the country for her to save her seat.
Are we reaching a point where we can expect a Labour lead in a poll before Thursday? There could be one coming this weekend: just a gut feel.
They will need direct Con/Lab switchers from now on. The minor parties have been reduced to rock-bottom vote shares so there's nothing more to come from those sources.
Are we reaching a point where we can expect a Labour lead in a poll before Thursday? There could be one coming this weekend: just a gut feel.
Maybe, just because of statistical fluctuation. As far as the trend goes, it doesn't look as though Labour can go much higher unless the Tories fall. Judging by this poll, UKIP can't be squeezed much more, and the LD vote also seems fairly stable.
I think there could be a hung parliament if there are systematic errors in the polls (or the seat projections based on the polls). But otherwise it still looks like a Tory majority, doesn't it?
Mind-blowing. I now think she is toast, no matter what happens. There is no way she will ever fight another campaign. So the question is, when does she resign? A month? A year? If she gets a very small majority, almost immediately. If she loses her majority, immediately.
She's a dead woman walking. I genuinely feel sorry for her.
I guess she has one last chance to save this: tonight. She needs that one dazzling performance and she needs Jezza to say Fuck the Queen. I'm not hopeful.
I don't think she will want to do another campaign but she's got five years if she gets a decent majority. She could do four of them and then stand down if she leaves the FTPA alone. This election wasn't just about assuring a functional majority. She wanted a carte blanche to do things her way. She won't get that now.
I am guessing a lot of young people believe that corbyn won't really follow through with brexit and so can vote for him rather than lib dems. In my experience a lot of young people believe a lot of things that aren't true about corbyn ie out their beliefs onto him and don't believe a lot of the stuff that is true.
Saw a poll of those working in higher education. 50% voting Labour, next Lib Dems on around 25%, Tories at 7%.
How would the removal of tuition fees impact on the financing of HE? Would be a bit of a shock to the system to implement in around 3-months.
As one of the 7%, I think it's safe to say that most of my colleagues don't really think that a Labour government is possible.
In a way, it would't make much immediate difference, in that the Government stands behinds the loan system anyway so as long as they continued to do that then things would carry on as they are. I don't know, but doubt whether the loans liability count towards public borrowing figures or not. If they don't, then they obviously would in the future if the government directly replaced loans with a block grant and then we will see how long the government could and would maintain funding at the current level.
One of the biggest changes in the polling since pre-election is that the retention rate has levelled up. Before the election, Labour was routinely keeping 75% or fewer of their 2015 vote against 90%+ of 2015 Cons. The most recent YouGov had Lab keeping 83%, against 85% for Con, among those with a current voting preference, or a 74-72 lead if DKs/WNVs are included.
I have been following this one closely. Also most of these "comebacks" have been in your patch - North. Though perhaps slightly less in Yorks and Humber.
In any event, locals polls in Wales, Scotland and London have definitely backed the "swingback" to Labour.
Mind-blowing. I now think she is toast, no matter what happens. There is no way she will ever fight another campaign. So the question is, when does she resign? A month? A year? If she gets a very small majority, almost immediately. If she loses her majority, immediately.
She's a dead woman walking. I genuinely feel sorry for her.
I guess she has one last chance to save this: tonight. She needs that one dazzling performance and she needs Jezza to say Fuck the Queen. I'm not hopeful.
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if she will get the chance to do Brexit. I suspect most Tory MPs are Soft Brexiteers, 80% of parliament will be Soft Brexit.
Will a badly weakened prime minister, evidently living on borrowed time, and never going to fight another election, have the power and authority to push through her vision of Brexit? Especially when the EU says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
If the Tory Party dumps May and backs 100 billion euros to the EU and free movement left uncontrolled then never mind polling 45% under May the party will be polling 30% at best with UKIP snapping at their heals, then headless chicken Tories really will have something to worry about!!
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Agree with this. Many people have had enough. Brexit was one way of turning the table over, Corbyn is the next.
May needed to offer something positive.
Unfortunately the more we see of her the worse it gets. She is seriously dull and boring both in personality but also philosophy. I think the nadir of her hubris was the One Show. That was one of the worst 30-minutes of telly I have ever seen. I thought to myself, the public like this? Surely not.
People want a bit of hope in their lives. Even Cameron gave a bit of this. He could argue positively about something and made you want to believe even if you knew he would be pissing himself at you behind your back.
I still think May will win handsomely on the day, 50-80 majority, not a landslide but decent enough.
For all that PB talks about toxic Corbyn (and I also thought he would be toxic) it seems that the IRA stuff really isn't cutting through with the floating voters.
Plus he seems to have inspired a Bernie like momentum with youths. Now, the classic assumption is that youths don't turn up, and that's probably correct. But the EU ref assumptions were based on non voters not turning up, all forecasts of a leave victory assumed a low turnout not a high one. I think we may actually see big youth turnout for once. Bernie only lost to Hillary because of his weakness with minority voters, which doesn't really apply to more white Britain.
Bernie lost because of their weird super delegate system, which some people say is rigged (we can say at the very least the RNC big whigs didnt want him and did everything possible to stop him).
The thing is the comparison sort of stops there...Sanders isn't a terrorist sympathizer, he hadn't taken money from states that kills gays, doesn't surround himself with Marxists and antisemites...
Sanders lost by 400 (10%) of pledged delegates and 12% of the vote. Admittedly Hilary hoovered up over 80% of unpledged delegates- something to do with her being a longstanding member of the party, unlike Sanders - but that altered the size of the margin, not the result.
A similar outcome here of 44-32 and a majority of 60-odd would be very satisfactory for May.
But I don't agree Corbyn would stay. I think now he has whipped up such a frenzy of expectation that his defeat will shatter the Labour left for good. That may even be the intention of the pollsters looking at where they are coming from. If Corbyn had lost from the leads at the start, most people would have thought 'meh'. But now, his supporters genuinely think he will win, as we see here.
This is their one shot. If they do not win this, now, they will really never have a chance again.
It's been the most fantastic shift seeing the Corbyn campaign at the outset talking about their end strategy of maintaining the leadership of the party to now genuinely thinking they can bring down May...
what is the best english speaking country to emigrate to?
Yorkshire.
Failing that, Canada?
Whats the feeling on the ground in Wakefield & Morley ?
Still quite positive, to be honest (talking Wakefield here: M&O became an independent Association once it had its own Conservative MP). We're still finding switchers direct from Labour and losing virtually none the other way. As far as I can tell, we're picking up the bulk of UKIP voters too.
I've heard positive things about the postal votes but would take that with a pinch of salt as it's at best third-hand information based on what can be seen through the backs of the papers.
Are you finding any half term effect (people out or not interested)?
To be honest, I've been mostly delivering leaflets this week so don't have first-hand experience from this week, though I am still getting an overview of what's going on and that effect hasn't been brought up by those reporting in.
what is the best english speaking country to emigrate to?
Yorkshire.
Failing that, Canada?
Whats the feeling on the ground in Wakefield & Morley ?
Still quite positive, to be honest (talking Wakefield here: M&O became an independent Association once it had its own Conservative MP). We're still finding switchers direct from Labour and losing virtually none the other way. As far as I can tell, we're picking up the bulk of UKIP voters too.
I've heard positive things about the postal votes but would take that with a pinch of salt as it's at best third-hand information based on what can be seen through the backs of the papers.
Second hand anecdata from labour canvassers is that Mary Creagh's pro-Eu stance is the only bad feedback. They're increasingly confident.
Think it must be misplaced. A lot of leave voters would have to vote for one of the most Pro-Eu politicians in the country for her to save her seat.
If the Tories win an 80-100 majority can we promise never to take Polls seriously again?
If they remain as now then answer is no, but I'll be waiting to see the last polls with a great deal of interest to see if they herd and which way.
No we can still have ICM and Comres which are the only polls who have bothered to learn and weigh their polls based on 2015 turnout demographic unlike yougov and Mori who don't
It's not quite that simple, though, is it? Weighting your polls based on turnout in the previous election isn't necessarily the best thing to do.
Comments
LD - gone down a bit as campaign has gone on. Apparently a few kippers have moved to Labour as well. It's not Con Lab swing as Con vote share has stayed relatively stable.
"Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ 1h1 hour ago
Matthew Goodwin Retweeted Britain Elects
Corbyn, with net negatives on leadership, the economy, Brexit & a divided party, is 3 points behind Blair in 1997?
Give. Me. A. Break."
twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/870599875204927488
Those constituency parties best organised will be winning the postal vote.
They might be the saving of the Conservatives.
Because we saw thus big poll surge after "I agree with nick" and lots of big crowds excitedly supporting him, but when did it actually fall back?
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/870613394596012032
Though to truly hedge the risk, you'd need to be able to stake several billion at those odds.
Doctors in any field don't get paid for doing any market research over the phone with the company I'm affiliated with. We do work for the big drug companies undisclosed and request interviews from 20-60mins.
Big money in market research is in the big corporate companies. Brokers/financial advisors think they get called a lot for market research but the jobs are poorly paid. A market research company can charge millions for 4-5k interviews with big corporate companies over a 3 month period.
Or are you going to be boring and discuss the election....
:-)
https://www.xkcd.com/1844/
The repeated sampling of members of this forum over the past few weeks suggests the effective size of their pools or mailing lists is actually quite small, and hence the margin of error, and succeptibility and sensitivity to being gamed are that much larger.
Where is he now?
How would the removal of tuition fees impact on the financing of HE? Would be a bit of a shock to the system to implement in around 3-months.
So I might as well toss a coin for LD / Labour
What's shocked me about the inept Tory campaign, is that when TMay got in, she gave a very one nation Tory speech about the issues facing the hard pressed working population. If she had followed through on that in the manifesto, we wouldn't be looking at polls like this now.
Here's the trouble: nothing can be done about it until the economy grows very strongly again, and the deficit is closed.
Sorry.
THat and May's dementia tax.
The most amazing thing is that, prima facie, Labour's sweet shop is better costed than the Conservative's punishment cell. Regardless of the outcome of this election, the Labour team deserve some congratulation.
Until the gap between the top 1% and the rest starts to close up, we're moving in the *wrong direction*. The turnaround isn't going to be made under a Tory government, fresh thinking is needed. Corbyn isn't perfect but he's at least asking the right questions.
I wonder when the British will learn to live within their means - it is very sad that the literature which gave us Micawber is so little read and understood by our over-indulged children.
I thought an mp had a limit to how much they could spend on campaigning for an individual seat. How can Labour compete against any tory candidate as they could just hold a dinner and raise thousands of pounds by inviting residents living in the most expensive streets in the constituency.
I've heard positive things about the postal votes but would take that with a pinch of salt as it's at best third-hand information based on what can be seen through the backs of the papers.
We had severe austerity in the 1970s, when Healey was chancellor. But we were definitely more 'all in this together'.
Will Lab be down? Or in the lead?
A similar outcome here of 44-32 and a majority of 60-odd would be very satisfactory for May.
But I don't agree Corbyn would stay. I think now he has whipped up such a frenzy of expectation that his defeat will shatter the Labour left for good. That may even be the intention of the pollsters looking at where they are coming from. If Corbyn had lost from the leads at the start, most people would have thought 'meh'. But now, his supporters genuinely think he will win, as we see here.
This is their one shot. If they do not win this, now, they will really never have a chance again.
20 quid to a charity of your choice/my choice says they won't...
If Corbyn did get close to 40% of the votes, what would be the argument from anti-Corbynites ? We would have got 45% ?
The Conservatives have, historically, often been ideologically flexible - recently (though it seems an age ago, how fast times change!) Osborne's living wage was pleasantly radical.
With the centre-ground freed up, I thought there might be more scope for the Tories to occupy, if not Labour's lawn exactly, then at least the radical centre.
You'd probably feel it's played out that way all too well. (Though I'd agree with @RochdalePioneers that the Tory manifesto was in many ways quite a "nasty" one, surprisingly so when May had been so ebulliently One Nation in her post-coronation speeches.)
Think it must be misplaced. A lot of leave voters would have to vote for one of the most Pro-Eu politicians in the country for her to save her seat.
I think there could be a hung parliament if there are systematic errors in the polls (or the seat projections based on the polls). But otherwise it still looks like a Tory majority, doesn't it?
In a way, it would't make much immediate difference, in that the Government stands behinds the loan system anyway so as long as they continued to do that then things would carry on as they are. I don't know, but doubt whether the loans liability count towards public borrowing figures or not. If they don't, then they obviously would in the future if the government directly replaced loans with a block grant and then we will see how long the government could and would maintain funding at the current level.
In any event, locals polls in Wales, Scotland and London have definitely backed the "swingback" to Labour.
May needed to offer something positive.
Unfortunately the more we see of her the worse it gets. She is seriously dull and boring both in personality but also philosophy. I think the nadir of her hubris was the One Show. That was one of the worst 30-minutes of telly I have ever seen. I thought to myself, the public like this? Surely not.
People want a bit of hope in their lives. Even Cameron gave a bit of this. He could argue positively about something and made you want to believe even if you knew he would be pissing himself at you behind your back.