We could be looking at a country more horribly divided young against old than it seemed it would be Brexit against remain. If this is close, there will be huge ill feeling on both sides. Brexiteers will be livid if it's a HP.
Brexit largely WAS young against old.
this election could be the revenge of the young against the old for voting brexit
I was just thinking exactly the same thing. Dangerous inter-generational stuff if true.
Wait a few years and it will mostly sort itself. The young have time on their side.
Well that was the biggest error of the manifesto, fighting on Labour's turf and then declaring that the Tory party will steal your house that you've spent the last 30 years paying off because, unfortunately, you had the temerity to fall ill.
It'll tick you off, but this is one of the main reasons I voted for Corbyn.
The Conservatives have, historically, often been ideologically flexible - recently (though it seems an age ago, how fast times change!) Osborne's living wage was pleasantly radical.
With the centre-ground freed up, I thought there might be more scope for the Tories to occupy, if not Labour's lawn exactly, then at least the radical centre.
You'd probably feel it's played out that way all too well. (Though I'd agree with @RochdalePioneers that the Tory manifesto was in many ways quite a "nasty" one, surprisingly so when May had been so ebulliently One Nation in her post-coronation speeches.)
It's even more basic than that for me. The last 5 elections have been fought on Oliver Letwin's playground with Labour having to copy us, this one is being fought on Ed Miliband's playground with the PM and her idiot advisers copying Labour. This is why we've become unstuck. Labour are better at being socialists and social democrats than we are, just as we are better at being fiscally disciplined and managing the economy. The election should have been fought on building a strong economy and ensuring Labour didn't wreck it like Brown from 2007-2010. That plus ensuring that the British people are ready for Brexit in some way would have seen us home to a 150 seat majority and left Labour out of power for a generation, but they decided to copy Ed and then inexplicably target the JAMs with a policy of property theft. The mind boggles.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Agree with much of that. I don't agree the tory manifesto was nasty, but it was both hopeless and short on hope.
And I certainly don't agree with your seeming implication that the labour one was costed...
But you capture the electorate's mood fairly well I suspect. They will be massively let down if Corbyn is PM, as his policies will screw us over royally, but for next week you are about right.
Mind-blowing. I now think she is toast, no matter what happens. There is no way she will ever fight another campaign. So the question is, when does she resign? A month? A year? If she gets a very small majority, almost immediately. If she loses her majority, immediately.
She's a dead woman walking. I genuinely feel sorry for her.
I guess she has one last chance to save this: tonight. She needs that one dazzling performance and she needs Jezza to say Fuck the Queen. I'm not hopeful.
Rubbish, Blair had a net negative in 2001 and win a landslide as often did Thatcher when she won, 43% positive is more than enough to win
There's hardly any difference in the satisfaction/dissatisfaction ratings between Corbyn and May. What's sauce for the gander is sauce for the goose.
Those constituency parties best organised will be winning the postal vote.
They might be the saving of the Conservatives.
But 10 days ago I was thinking that dementia tax had sunk the postal vote, thank God there was enough time for the memory of it to fade before polling day.
Has no-one in CCHQ thought about resurrecting this:
I do wonder what the hell crosby and messina are doing. I have visited bath, a supposed tight race, twice in the past 3 weeks, and you would hardly know an election is going on. It is only when you head out into the sticks and see stuff for Jacob ress mogg everywhere do you notice (and he ain't going to lose come what may)
One of the biggest changes in the polling since pre-election is that the retention rate has levelled up. Before the election, Labour was routinely keeping 75% or fewer of their 2015 vote against 90%+ of 2015 Cons. The most recent YouGov had Lab keeping 83%, against 85% for Con, among those with a current voting preference, or a 74-72 lead if DKs/WNVs are included.
I have been following this one closely. Also most of these "comebacks" have been in your patch - North. Though perhaps slightly less in Yorks and Humber.
In any event, locals polls in Wales, Scotland and London have definitely backed the "swingback" to Labour.
It was that Welsh poll that first picked up something happening....
T May better have another angle tonight than simply talking about who do you want to lead Brexit? I'm getting so much pleasure at the minute by speaking with Tories (i.e. my sister) who cannot stand Theresa May.
Unless TMay miraculously gets a big majority, the EU will now push their extreme and costly Brexit even harder, hoping that a weakened TMay either agrees to a terrible deal, or is toppled by a leader who will accept EFTA/EEA status, where we still pay something, and have no say in the laws, but we get Single Market access.
We could be looking at a country more horribly divided young against old than it seemed it would be Brexit against remain. If this is close, there will be huge ill feeling on both sides. Brexiteers will be livid if it's a HP.
Brexit largely WAS young against old.
this election could be the revenge of the young against the old for voting brexit
I was just thinking exactly the same thing. Dangerous inter-generational stuff if true.
Wait a few years and it will mostly sort itself. The young have time on their side.
It won't. It will get worse. People in my age group are struggling, I don't see how that will change for the foreseeable future. I'm living with my mum right now after uni because even renting right now is a difficulty, let alone buying a house.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Agree entirely but with the caveat that I don't think the visceral dislike of Corbyn in many quarters has gone away, nor is he, yet, seen as more capable. There is genuine concern that he can't take his party with him. It's getting very messy.
Practicality will come into the mix. If Corbyn does get 250 seats and if the Tories are denied a majority, forget the 175 MPs who voted in a no-confidence motion. Barely 25 will be left of that lot.
If Corbyn did get close to 40% of the votes, what would be the argument from anti-Corbynites ? We would have got 45% ?
If he's not minority or majority PM, there will still be opposition. Corbyn's Labour isn't coopers Labour. It's all very messy.
what is the best english speaking country to emigrate to?
Yorkshire.
Failing that, Canada?
Whats the feeling on the ground in Wakefield & Morley ?
Still quite positive, to be honest (talking Wakefield here: M&O became an independent Association once it had its own Conservative MP). We're still finding switchers direct from Labour and losing virtually none the other way. As far as I can tell, we're picking up the bulk of UKIP voters too.
I've heard positive things about the postal votes but would take that with a pinch of salt as it's at best third-hand information based on what can be seen through the backs of the papers.
Are you finding any half term effect (people out or not interested)?
To be honest, I've been mostly delivering leaflets this week so don't have first-hand experience from this week, though I am still getting an overview of what's going on and that effect hasn't been brought up by those reporting in.
PB Tories - and non-PB Tories who have money at stake now have my official permission to wobble.
No wobbling here, though we're on for a 20-40 majority rather than the 60-80 I thought we'd get a week ago. There is still the possibility of a very late swing (think 2015) which will leave all the pundits scratching their heads again.
The big problem with political polling is that it has to be all of 3 things:
- Accurate - Cost effective - Fast
The British electoral study has been shown to be very accurate but is also far too slow to be used in the same way as current polls are.
One thing I have been thinking about is the level of incentives that these studies pay. I work in healthcare research and if we do a 20 minute survey with a doctor we will pay them in the region of £20-30. If you do a 20 minute survey on a consumer site you will paid 50p or given a prize draw entry. This means these sorts of surveys will only appeal to people who are cash poor, time rich and to people who are very interested in doing surveys. As far as I am aware phone polls don't offer any incentive at all.
So you could put up incentives to say £5 per 5 minutes but this then clashes with point number 2 about being cost effective.
The other thing I would consider along with putting up incentives is trying to set up a closed panel for political research. By a closed panel, I mean rather than letting everyone join, use the electoral roll to segment the electorate by national demographics and then randomly invite people to participate within each segment. With an approach like this you would need to allow longer in field (say a week) and to be prepared to use phone to chase up people who don't participate straight away but this would hopefully prove more accurate.
There is no money in consumer market research.
Doctors in any field don't get paid for doing any market research over the phone with the company I'm affiliated with. We do work for the big drug companies undisclosed and request interviews from 20-60mins.
Big money in market research is in the big corporate companies. Brokers/financial advisors think they get called a lot for market research but the jobs are poorly paid. A market research company can charge millions for 4-5k interviews with big corporate companies over a 3 month period.
I'm sure there is lots of money in B2C. I remember back in the day trying to interview finance directors over the phone - Was lucky to get 2 a day.
I'm surprised you don't pay incentives. I know doctors will sometimes do surveys for free but the response rate really drops.
On the point on doing a 20 second interview, I know some MR companies have experimented with sending questions out by text before. Not sure how effective it has been.
I am guessing a lot of young people believe that corbyn won't really follow through with brexit and so can vote for him rather than lib dems. In my experience a lot of young people believe a lot of things that aren't true about corbyn ie out their beliefs onto him and don't believe a lot of the stuff that is true.
If there is a minority Labour government, I believe the whole Brexit process will be slowed down and the EU will actually collude on that. The 2 year rule will be extended. Some formula will be found on freedom of movement.
Don't forget 48% voted for existing rules. The freedom of movement will need to be softened only slightly to get another 5-10% over.
Then as a new normality comes about, there will be a second referendum either to stay in or outside in a quasi-EEA situation.
Saw a poll of those working in higher education. 50% voting Labour, next Lib Dems on around 25%, Tories at 7%.
How would the removal of tuition fees impact on the financing of HE? Would be a bit of a shock to the system to implement in around 3-months.
As one of the 7%, I think it's safe to say that most of my colleagues don't really think that a Labour government is possible.
In a way, it would't make much immediate difference, in that the Government stands behinds the loan system anyway so as long as they continued to do that then things would carry on as they are. I don't know, but doubt whether the loans liability count towards public borrowing figures or not. If they don't, then they obviously would in the future if the government directly replaced loans with a block grant and then we will see how long the government could and would maintain funding at the current level.
How did we get to a situation where the percentage of Conservative supporters in academia is only about one-sixth of the wider population?
Nicola Sturgeon is being urged to order an investigation into cover-up claims in a controversial "cash for votes" row after a series of "damning" email revelations today.
Scottish Government officials privately admitted they made the "wrong call" over a major funding announcement for Glasgow made in the build-up to last month's council elections.
I also think if she walks away with a "no deal" resolution that sees us move to WTO terms the Tories will win a 150-200 majority.
And you call me deluded...
It's because you are and you don't understand the British psyche at all. Every time we give the EU a bloody nose the governing party prospers. This would be an almighty rejection of them if we didn't cow to their demands.
not really a punter, but wondering if there is an angle on turnout on this election. Corbyn certainly seems to have energised his base, which should in turn energise Tory voters as the polls narrow,
Mind-blowing. I now think she is toast, no matter what happens. There is no way she will ever fight another campaign. So the question is, when does she resign? A month? A year? If she gets a very small majority, almost immediately. If she loses her majority, immediately.
She's a dead woman walking. I genuinely feel sorry for her.
I guess she has one last chance to save this: tonight. She needs that one dazzling performance and she needs Jezza to say Fuck the Queen. I'm not hopeful.
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if she will get the chance to do Brexit. I suspect most Tory MPs are Soft Brexiteers, 80% of parliament will be Soft Brexit.
Will a badly weakened prime minister, evidently living on borrowed time, and never going to fight another election, have the power and authority to push through her vision of Brexit? Especially when the EU says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
If the Tory Party dumps May and backs 100 billion euros to the EU and free movement left uncontrolled then never mind polling 45% under May the party will be polling 30% at best with UKIP snapping at their heals, then headless chicken Tories really will have something to worry about!!
FFS, man, look at the polls. UKIP are finished. If voters were that fussed about Freedom of Movement, why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?
There is a serious point.
Unless TMay miraculously gets a big majority, the EU will now push their extreme and costly Brexit even harder, hoping that a weakened TMay either agrees to a terrible deal, or is toppled by a leader who will accept EFTA/EEA status, where we still pay something, and have no say in the laws, but we get Single Market access.
The EU would be delighted with that outcome.
NO UKIP are finished PRECISELY because May is pursuing the free movement controls and regained sovereignty every poll shows Tory voters want, any big concessions by the Tories on payments to the EU will see UKIP make a swifter revival than Lazarus, May or no May
what is the best english speaking country to emigrate to?
Yorkshire.
Failing that, Canada?
Whats the feeling on the ground in Wakefield & Morley ?
Still quite positive, to be honest (talking Wakefield here: M&O became an independent Association once it had its own Conservative MP). We're still finding switchers direct from Labour and losing virtually none the other way. As far as I can tell, we're picking up the bulk of UKIP voters too.
I've heard positive things about the postal votes but would take that with a pinch of salt as it's at best third-hand information based on what can be seen through the backs of the papers.
Are you finding any half term effect (people out or not interested)?
To be honest, I've been mostly delivering leaflets this week so don't have first-hand experience from this week, though I am still getting an overview of what's going on and that effect hasn't been brought up by those reporting in.
What's your gut tell you David? 10 point lead, 5 point lead or slipping Away?
Saw a poll of those working in higher education. 50% voting Labour, next Lib Dems on around 25%, Tories at 7%.
How would the removal of tuition fees impact on the financing of HE? Would be a bit of a shock to the system to implement in around 3-months.
As one of the 7%, I think it's safe to say that most of my colleagues don't really think that a Labour government is possible.
In a way, it would't make much immediate difference, in that the Government stands behinds the loan system anyway so as long as they continued to do that then things would carry on as they are. I don't know, but doubt whether the loans liability count towards public borrowing figures or not. If they don't, then they obviously would in the future if the government directly replaced loans with a block grant and then we will see how long the government could and would maintain funding at the current level.
How did we get to a situation where the percentage of Conservative supporters in academia is only about one-sixth of the wider population?
Because the Tories are anti higher education ? Remember Thatcher and the Oxford senate ?
Mind-blowing. I now think she is toast, no matter what happens. There is no way she will ever fight another campaign. So the question is, when does she resign? A month? A year? If she gets a very small majority, almost immediately. If she loses her majority, immediately.
She's a dead woman walking. I genuinely feel sorry for her.
I guess she has one last chance to save this: tonight. She needs that one dazzling performance and she needs Jezza to say Fuck the Queen. I'm not hopeful.
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if she will get the chance to do Brexit. I suspect most Tory MPs are Soft Brexiteers, 80% of parliament will be Soft Brexit.
Will a badly weakened prime minister, evidently living on borrowed time, and never going to fight another election, have the power and authority to push through her vision of Brexit? Especially when the EU says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
If the Tory Party dumps May and backs 100 billion euros to the EU and free movement left uncontrolled then never mind polling 45% under May the party will be polling 30% at best with UKIP snapping at their heals, then headless chicken Tories really will have something to worry about!!
FFS, man, look at the polls. UKIP are finished. If voters were that fussed about Freedom of Movement, why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?
There is a serious point.
Unless TMay miraculously gets a big majority, the EU will now push their extreme and costly Brexit even harder, hoping that a weakened TMay either agrees to a terrible deal, or is toppled by a leader who will accept EFTA/EEA status, where we still pay something, and have no say in the laws, but we get Single Market access.
The EU would be delighted with that outcome.
"why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?"
They're probably not if past opinion polling accuracy is anything to go by
Saw a poll of those working in higher education. 50% voting Labour, next Lib Dems on around 25%, Tories at 7%.
How would the removal of tuition fees impact on the financing of HE? Would be a bit of a shock to the system to implement in around 3-months.
As one of the 7%, I think it's safe to say that most of my colleagues don't really think that a Labour government is possible.
In a way, it would't make much immediate difference, in that the Government stands behinds the loan system anyway so as long as they continued to do that then things would carry on as they are. I don't know, but doubt whether the loans liability count towards public borrowing figures or not. If they don't, then they obviously would in the future if the government directly replaced loans with a block grant and then we will see how long the government could and would maintain funding at the current level.
How did we get to a situation where the percentage of Conservative supporters in academia is only about one-sixth of the wider population?
I think the HE colleges were always very left-supporting and they now represent a significant majority of University employees.
If the Tories win an 80-100 majority can we promise never to take Polls seriously again?
If they remain as now then answer is no, but I'll be waiting to see the last polls with a great deal of interest to see if they herd and which way.
No we can still have ICM and Comres which are the only polls who have bothered to learn and weigh their polls based on 2015 turnout demographic unlike yougov and Mori who don't
It's not quite that simple, though, is it? Weighting your polls based on turnout in the previous election isn't necessarily the best thing to do.
Well if youth turnout surges I will admit I was wrong
Appreciate the positive feedback everyone. A couple more points:
1. Corbyn isn't well liked. He is adored by the disaffected and angry. He is despised by the right and their fellow travellers AND the Blairite faction in Labour. And is A Politician to the majority in the middle who try and avoid politics as much as possible. Yes the media have slammed Corbyn endlessly, but thats just wallpaper for the people who don't care about politics. Shocking as it may be the first proper exposure that millions of punters have had to both May and Corbyn is this campaign. And then some of you seem agog that its going as it is
2. This election like all elections offers a simple choice. A tory government. Or a Labour government. As South Park put it a Giant Douche or a Turd Sandwich. Ordinarily a placid populace - the one bred by 40 years of hard work by the establishment - people would say "none of them" and not vote. But not now. They can't afford not to vote. They're fed up and angry and like Howard Beale they're mad as hell and they're not going to take it any more.
So presented with Douche vs Turd the question is who is the least palatable. And for so many voters on so many levels that is Corbyn. Not that Corbyn is good. But May is worse.
3. The economy. People aren't entirely as stupid as the right think they are. They understand capitalism. Invest and get a return on that investment. They want to work and be rewarded for that work and have the cash left over to buy stuff. Work doesn't pay for increasing numbers of people, and that is a system that is very broken. Borrowing money at 0% (as governments now can) to invest in capex that pays a significant ROI is not bankrupting Britain, is not communism, its CAPITALISM and we need a return to some basic principles. People get that. A Labour manifesto promising a glut of investment to create jobs, with better pay, tax rises for me and not them, vs a Tory manifesto of no meals for kids and don't get old - is anyone really that surprised that the polls are moving as sharply as they are?
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
I do wonder if May is producing "Springtime for Hitler", but that was a surprise hit so not an apt analogy.
Our clinic coordinators were talking positively over Corbyn yesterday. They see him as some hope for the future, though one of the patients (older male WWC) went off on a bit of a rant about terrorism. The other patients edged away a bit.
Mind-blowing. I now think she is toast, no matter what happens. There is no way she will ever fight another campaign. So the question is, when does she resign? A month? A year? If she gets a very small majority, almost immediately. If she loses her majority, immediately.
She's a dead woman walking. I genuinely feel sorry for her.
I guess she has one last chance to save this: tonight. She needs that one dazzling performance and she needs Jezza to say Fuck the Queen. I'm not hopeful.
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if she will get the chance to do Brexit. I suspect most Tory MPs are Soft Brexiteers, 80% of parliament will be Soft Brexit.
Will a badly weakened prime minister, evidently living on borrowed time, and never going to fight another election, have the power and authority to push through her vision of Brexit? Especially when the EU says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
I suspect people will get increasingly fed up with Brexit. I don't mean they will start singing the praises of Juncker. I mean they won't want to hear about problems and compromises. They will just switch off. Brexit becomes a poisoned chalice for any politician that gets associated with it.
@PCollinsTimes: Reports back from the ground are that nobody campaigning has seen a dramatic change. Yet the polls seem to suggest there is.
@PCollinsTimes: People are citing the reports as conclusive evidence that the polls are wrong. Yet that does not follow. Both things can be true.
@PCollinsTimes: There has not been a very dramatic shift. The people making the polls move always liked Corbyn. It's about whether they vote.
@PCollinsTimes: So the two events are compatible. The electorate hasn't changed its mind. It's changed in size. If it has changed.
As stated previously it is rather bizarre that the corbgasm has seen the poll lead massively reduced and we haven't seen any reaction from the Tories. No big beasts, no rabbits, the mail / telegraph have no stories to run with.
Even if may is shit, you would think they would be doing something.
Either the Tories haven't got a clue what to do or they don't believe the public facing polls.
Mind-blowing. I now think she is toast, no matter what happens. There is no way she will ever fight another campaign. So the question is, when does she resign? A month? A year? If she gets a very small majority, almost immediately. If she loses her majority, immediately.
She's a dead woman walking. I genuinely feel sorry for her.
I guess she has one last chance to save this: tonight. She needs that one dazzling performance and she needs Jezza to say Fuck the Queen. I'm not hopeful.
Once Brexit is done, the party will want Team Theresa to own it and then dump her.
I wonder if she will get the chance to do Brexit. I suspect most Tory MPs are Soft Brexiteers, 80% of parliament will be Soft Brexit.
Will a badly weakened prime minister, evidently living on borrowed time, and never going to fight another election, have the power and authority to push through her vision of Brexit? Especially when the EU says Give us €500 bn at tea-time next Wednesday?
If the Tory Party dumps May and backs 100 billion euros to the EU and free movement left uncontrolled then never mind polling 45% under May the party will be polling 30% at best with UKIP snapping at their heals, then headless chicken Tories really will have something to worry about!!
FFS, man, look at the polls. UKIP are finished. If voters were that fussed about Freedom of Movement, why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?
There is a serious point.
Unless TMay miraculously gets a big majority, the EU will now push their extreme and costly Brexit even harder, hoping that a weakened TMay either agrees to a terrible deal, or is toppled by a leader who will accept EFTA/EEA status, where we still pay something, and have no say in the laws, but we get Single Market access.
The EU would be delighted with that outcome.
"why are they flocking to Jeremy "Single Market" "let them all in" Corbyn?"
They're probably not if past opinion polling accuracy is anything to go by
Because the Tory party has said it's going to steal their houses. That policy is absolutely toxic in middle England. A man's (or woman's) home is his castle, the Tories have threatened it. It's literally the worst policy I've ever come across.
We could be looking at a country more horribly divided young against old than it seemed it would be Brexit against remain. If this is close, there will be huge ill feeling on both sides. Brexiteers will be livid if it's a HP.
Brexit largely WAS young against old.
this election could be the revenge of the young against the old for voting brexit
I was just thinking exactly the same thing. Dangerous inter-generational stuff if true.
Wait a few years and it will mostly sort itself. The young have time on their side.
It won't. It will get worse. People in my age group are struggling, I don't see how that will change for the foreseeable future. I'm living with my mum right now after uni because even renting right now is a difficulty, let alone buying a house.
I understand. I have two daughters one of whom lives at home and the other of which may well be joining us after Uni. The country is in a shambles and has been for quite a while and I put poor housing provision at the root of a lot of the problems. Artifically high property prices and rents distort everything else.
NO UKIP are finished PRECISELY because May is pursuing the free movement controls and regained sovereignty every poll shows Tory voters want, any big concessions by the Tories on payments to the EU will see UKIP make a swifter revival than Lazarus, May or no May
I think you need to remember that Nigel Farage captured and channeled anger at Brussels and the status quo like no other party leader before or since. The Lord Nuttall does not have his passion, or his intelligence. (He's also a complete fantasist.) Under Nuttall, I think they would struggle to perform under any scenario except an absolute about U-turn.
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
I canvassed in Enfield North, it was neck and neck and if the Tories win there May has a majority over 50 with gains in Scotland given the Tories are doing worse than average in London
What is amazing is that May's natural reaction to all this is NOT to come out swinging (in the boxing sense rather than in the wife-swapping sense).
I cannot think of another British PM for whom that would have been true. Brown was pugnacious in 2010. Major took to his soapbox when it was looking dodgy in 1992 and again when he was clearly going down in 1997. Thatcher, Blair, Callaghan, Wilson... all faced hard elections by jamming in the gum-shield and punching as hard as they could. It's always been fight rather than flight when the going gets tough. Maybe she's a genius and will prove us all wrong through masterful inaction... but it doesn't look good.
May 2020...that's the date that this General Election was supposed to be taking place.
If the polls are anywhere near right and TM ends up with a small majority or no majority at all and the UK goes in to Brexit negotiations in a God-awful state then there's only one party the public will punish...and it aint Labour
It's been the most fantastic shift seeing the Corbyn campaign at the outset talking about their end strategy of maintaining the leadership of the party to now genuinely thinking they can bring down May...
Yes, but what happens if they still lose by a huge margin?
Or to put it in context, the polls are worse for Labour now than they were for much of the 1979 election when several put them ahead (although there were many put them behind as well) and almost all had Callaghan as the most popular leader. Not one poll in over a year has put Labour in the lead. As for Corbyn's leadership ratings, despite the hysteria and the genuine decline in may's personal ratings, his are still worse. The last election for which those are both true is I think 1983 (not sure about 1987, but think Labour were leading about 6 months before). If we add Labour in it's 2001. Think about the implications of that.
This is more significant as in 1979 (a) they were expected to lose and (b) were in government and had more room to control the campaign.
Which is why I wonder what will happen if Labour still get shattered. How horrendous might the reaction be?
Edit - no, Labour had a dip in the polls in September 2000 after the fuel strike didn't they? 1997's the comparison.
not really a punter, but wondering if there is an angle on turnout on this election. Corbyn certainly seems to have energised his base, which should in turn energise Tory voters as the polls narrow,
i think the problem is that May isn't energising Tories at all at the moment. Compared with Cameron it's night and day.
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?
Appreciate the positive feedback everyone. A couple more points:
1. Corbyn isn't well liked. He is adored by the disaffected and angry. He is despised by the right and their fellow travellers AND the Blairite faction in Labour. And is A Politician to the majority in the middle who try and avoid politics as much as possible. Yes the media have slammed Corbyn endlessly, but thats just wallpaper for the people who don't care about politics. Shocking as it may be the first proper exposure that millions of punters have had to both May and Corbyn is this campaign. And then some of you seem agog that its going as it is
2. This election like all elections offers a simple choice. A tory government. Or a Labour government. As South Park put it a Giant Douche or a Turd Sandwich. Ordinarily a placid populace - the one bred by 40 years of hard work by the establishment - people would say "none of them" and not vote. But not now. They can't afford not to vote. They're fed up and angry and like Howard Beale they're mad as hell and they're not going to take it any more.
So presented with Douche vs Turd the question is who is the least palatable. And for so many voters on so many levels that is Corbyn. Not that Corbyn is good. But May is worse.
3. The economy. People aren't entirely as stupid as the right think they are. They understand capitalism. Invest and get a return on that investment. They want to work and be rewarded for that work and have the cash left over to buy stuff. Work doesn't pay for increasing numbers of people, and that is a system that is very broken. Borrowing money at 0% (as governments now can) to invest in capex that pays a significant ROI is not bankrupting Britain, is not communism, its CAPITALISM and we need a return to some basic principles. People get that. A Labour manifesto promising a glut of investment to create jobs, with better pay, tax rises for me and not them, vs a Tory manifesto of no meals for kids and don't get old - is anyone really that surprised that the polls are moving as sharply as they are?
I think that's mostly rubbish. Voters do not have the same level of vitriol for May as they do for Corbyn. Maybe the Conservatives but not May. People across the class and age spectrum dislike Corbyn and would never vote for him. You over estimate the number of people who 'adore' him. It's the same hard left political activist sorts that jump on every bandwagon. He can draw a crowd, he can win a social media battle but he cannot win round the quiet majority.
not really a punter, but wondering if there is an angle on turnout on this election. Corbyn certainly seems to have energised his base, which should in turn energise Tory voters as the polls narrow,
i think the problem is that May isn't energising Tories at all at the moment. Compared with Cameron it's night and day.
It doesn't matter if May is energizing voters or not, the threat of Corbyn will do that job for her.
What is amazing is that May's natural reaction to all this is NOT to come out swinging (in the boxing sense rather than in the wife-swapping sense).
I cannot think of another British PM for whom that would have been true. Brown was pugnacious in 2010. Major took to his soapbox when it was looking dodgy in 1992 and again when he was clearly going down in 1997. Thatcher, Blair, Callaghan, Wilson... all faced hard elections by jamming in the gum-shield and punching as hard as they could. It's always been fight rather than flight when the going gets tough. Maybe she's a genius and will prove us all wrong through masterful inaction... but it doesn't look good.
Interestingly 2015 the Tories got worries by the narrowing polls (despite their private polls still looking good) and the reaction was to send out Cameron, roll his sleeves up with his no money left note and go town to town, every media outlet, etc etc.
HYUFD: phone banks. I am sure SNP, Labour and the Lib Dems are eually as ruthless in their marginals. Given Labour have such momentum they are on a roll which delivers in the message over the phone.
I'm sure there is lots of money in B2C. I remember back in the day trying to interview finance directors over the phone - Was lucky to get 2 a day.
I'm surprised you don't pay incentives. I know doctors will sometimes do surveys for free but the response rate really drops.
On the point on doing a 20 second interview, I know some MR companies have experimented with sending questions out by text before. Not sure how effective it has been.
You recruit ex-recruitment agents in healthcare as they know how to get past receptionists/pas and get doctors/specialists on the phone. They also have excellent scientific and medical knowledge so when they pitch, they gain trust incredible quickly.
Problem with incentives is most people can't accept them. Policymakers, NGOs, Trade Bodies can't accept any incentive even to charity. So we just started phasing them out about 18 months to 2 years ago.
The hardest kind of market research is when respondents have to sign an NDA for a non-disclosed company/government. The funniest is when you do a project and 6 months later you see the end client doing something or announcing something because of your research findings and we never get mentioned.
For how long does "reality" have to mean the richest in society getting ever wealthier while the vast majority 'just about manage', and some get totally left behind?
Until the gap between the top 1% and the rest starts to close up, we're moving in the *wrong direction*. The turnaround isn't going to be made under a Tory government, fresh thinking is needed. Corbyn isn't perfect but he's at least asking the right questions.
I am not part of the 'richest' in society. I earn under 25k, and my mum earns just over 25k. I do not see how Corbynism would mean a better life for me and my family.
25k is an interesting point of comparison. For early career graduate work, that's probably in the ball-park for "decent pay". When compared to folk on PB who seem to enjoy a good brag about their wages (not just the PB righties who boast of their millions or the amount of money they won't get out of bed for, but I've seen a few lefties very keen to broadcast they are higher rate tax payers or paid off their student debt in double-quick time!) it feels pretty poor. But that's comparative, and probably the wrong comparison.
25k is well above minimum wage, and especially well above the combination of minimum wage with part-time hours. And the poorest workers in society will be getting by on much less.
So while it's true that neither you nor your mum are among the very highest-earning in society (though I hope your income has a lot of room on the upside as your career progresses!) it is on the upper side of the middle, well above the central "hump" of the modal income. In that sense, you or your family may just about be in that "better-off" bracket who we might reasonably expect Corbyn's plans to penalise at the expense of gains for the very low income...
What is amazing is that May's natural reaction to all this is NOT to come out swinging (in the boxing sense rather than in the wife-swapping sense).
I cannot think of another British PM for whom that would have been true. Brown was pugnacious in 2010. Major took to his soapbox when it was looking dodgy in 1992 and again when he was clearly going down in 1997. Thatcher, Blair, Callaghan, Wilson... all faced hard elections by jamming in the gum-shield and punching as hard as they could. It's always been fight rather than flight when the going gets tough. Maybe she's a genius and will prove us all wrong through masterful inaction... but it doesn't look good.
Interestingly 2015 the Tories got worries by the narrowing polls (despite their private polls still looking good) and the reaction was to send out Cameron, roll his sleeves up with his no money left note and go town to town.
Yes, Dave really was in another league compared to May. His multiple interventions at the debates etc... definitely helped the party.
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
My theory is that we are seeing both Labour and Conservative voter coalitions shift.
That will throw off polling models and mean parties could easily be campaigning in the wrong place.
Labour could do better in cities, (perhaps with non-voters) and with the young than they normally do. Conservatives are going to do better everywhere else.
I reckon there will be a lot of churn with both Labour and Tories taking seats off each other but still expect a comfortable Tory majority.
what is the best english speaking country to emigrate to?
Yorkshire.
Failing that, Canada?
Whats the feeling on the ground in Wakefield & Morley ?
Still quite positive, to be honest (talking Wakefield here: M&O became an independent Association once it had its own Conservative MP). We're still finding switchers direct from Labour and losing virtually none the other way. As far as I can tell, we're picking up the bulk of UKIP voters too.
I've heard positive things about the postal votes but would take that with a pinch of salt as it's at best third-hand information based on what can be seen through the backs of the papers.
Are you finding any half term effect (people out or not interested)?
To be honest, I've been mostly delivering leaflets this week so don't have first-hand experience from this week, though I am still getting an overview of what's going on and that effect hasn't been brought up by those reporting in.
What's your gut tell you David? 10 point lead, 5 point lead or slipping Away?
You ought to know that asking someone directly involved in a marginal what their prediction is, is to invite the answer 'I think we'll win but it will be close', whether they believe that or not. I don't know who else reads this and I'm not going to risk any potential negative comment, either from apparent complacency on the one hand or from defeatism on the other.
It's been the most fantastic shift seeing the Corbyn campaign at the outset talking about their end strategy of maintaining the leadership of the party to now genuinely thinking they can bring down May...
Yes, but what happens if they still lose by a huge margin?
Or to put it in context, the polls are worse for Labour now than they were for much of the 1979 election when several put them ahead (although there were many put them behind as well) and almost all had Callaghan as the most popular leader. Not one poll in over a year has put Labour in the lead. As for Corbyn's leadership ratings, despite the hysteria and the genuine decline in may's personal ratings, his are still worse. The last election for which those are both true is I think 1983 (not sure about 1987, but think Labour were leading about 6 months before). If we add Labour in it's 2001. Think about the implications of that.
This is more significant as in 1979 (a) they were expected to lose and (b) were in government and had more room to control the campaign.
Which is why I wonder what will happen if Labour still get shattered. How horrendous might the reaction be?
Edit - no, Labour had a dip in the polls in September 2000 after the fuel strike didn't they? 1997's the comparison.
If the electoral arithmetic returns to its pre 2015 status , Labour will not need to be ahead of the Conservatives to stop a Conservative overall majority .
It's even more basic than that for me. The last 5 elections have been fought on Oliver Letwin's playground with Labour having to copy us, this one is being fought on Ed Miliband's playground with the PM and her idiot advisers copying Labour. This is why we've become unstuck. Labour are better at being socialists and social democrats than we are, just as we are better at being fiscally disciplined and managing the economy. The election should have been fought on building a strong economy and ensuring Labour didn't wreck it like Brown from 2007-2010. That plus ensuring that the British people are ready for Brexit in some way would have seen us home to a 150 seat majority and left Labour out of power for a generation, but they decided to copy Ed and then inexplicably target the JAMs with a policy of property theft. The mind boggles.
Yep, I'm scratching my head still over that last one in particular. Such a mixed message. So easy to just put that one out for review. Not just politically easier but more sensible - I mean how much research and proper brain-hours from people who understanding this very complex area can have gone into the policy?
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
Agreed. A Tory activist of my acquaintance who lives in a Lab-Con ultra marginal has been spending their time driving up to Cumbria to canvas there. Either they are flying blind or have totally different polling data than the published polls.
Let me try and explain things for the hard of thinking. For the masses of the electorate about there life isn't brilliant. Its hard. Its been grindingly hard for years and they are sick of it.
The Brexit vote wasn't all about Europe, it was a protest vote against how shit things are. They want change for the better. For a little while May spoke their language on Brexit and the media had free reign to portray Jezbollah as a terrorist lover (fuelled by Jez's epic inability to do professional politics). So the polls pointed to a Tory landslide, and so May called an election to cash in for more seats.
And then it all changed. May assumed that because Jeremy was so hated and because she was so positively received on Brexit and JAMs that she could do what she liked. The Tory manifesto was genuinely stupid and nasty and reminded everyone how shit things really are right now. The Labour manifesto offering hope and change, and shooting the "uncosted tax and spend" meme dead at birth (helped by the Tory manifesto not being costed and them being very shifty on taxes).
And at the same time the media spin legally was swept away and more balance brought in. May isn't Thatcher after all, she's a socially inadequate loner unable to speak to people. Corbyn isn't Marx after all, he's this cuddly grandfather figure. And the anger that so many people have about their lives, Corbyn is articulating it.
So here we are. Your issues aren't necessarily the issues of the mainstream. Most voters vote based on their situation now and their wallet, and faced with more grinding austerity appear to have plumped for "bollocks to that".
Comrade...you have a brain on you.....
I think it's less the austerity, more the alarming levels of inequality and 'welfare reforms' and sanctions which lead some claimants to kill themselves. Inequality has the same effect on very poor people as austerity.
We had severe austerity in the 1970s, when Healey was chancellor. But we were definitely more 'all in this together'.
Comedy hour. We were so all in it together (i.e., in socialist-engineered sh!te, literally in some places) that the electorate called for Margaret Thatcher who, by public demand, as good as destroyed the Labour Party for a generation. All in it together? DMAL. Were you there? I was.
NO UKIP are finished PRECISELY because May is pursuing the free movement controls and regained sovereignty every poll shows Tory voters want, any big concessions by the Tories on payments to the EU will see UKIP make a swifter revival than Lazarus, May or no May
I think you need to remember that Nigel Farage captured and channeled anger at Brussels and the status quo like no other party leader before or since. The Lord Nuttall does not have his passion, or his intelligence. (He's also a complete fantasist.) Under Nuttall, I think they would struggle to perform under any scenario except an absolute about U-turn.
Kermit the Frog could lead UKIP and they would poll 20 to 25% if the Tories leave free movement uncontrolled and agree huge payments to the EU
I do wonder if May is producing "Springtime for Hitler", but that was a surprise hit so not an apt analogy.
Our clinic coordinators were talking positively over Corbyn yesterday. They see him as some hope for the future, though one of the patients (older male WWC) went off on a bit of a rant about terrorism. The other patients edged away a bit.
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
Interesting anecdata. But the message that people are more motivated to get out and vote to stop a landslide than they are if their man has a chance to win? That sounds rather bizarre.
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
What we can say for definite is that this time next week a hell of a lot of people are going to have an entire battery farm's worth of egg on their faces.
What we don't know yet is which group. Which is exciting in a way.
@PCollinsTimes: Reports back from the ground are that nobody campaigning has seen a dramatic change. Yet the polls seem to suggest there is.
@PCollinsTimes: People are citing the reports as conclusive evidence that the polls are wrong. Yet that does not follow. Both things can be true.
@PCollinsTimes: There has not been a very dramatic shift. The people making the polls move always liked Corbyn. It's about whether they vote.
@PCollinsTimes: So the two events are compatible. The electorate hasn't changed its mind. It's changed in size. If it has changed.
As stated previously it is rather bizarre that the corbgasm has seen the poll lead massively reduced and we haven't seen any reaction from the Tories. No big beasts, no rabbits, the mail / telegraph have no stories to run with.
Even if may is shit, you would think they would be doing something.
Either the Tories haven't got a clue what to do or they don't believe the public facing polls.
Or maybe they've simply decided that as long as they get 45% everything will be okay. That might just prove to be correct despite everything that's happened.
Interesting and understood. Makes me even happier in my Spanish retirement where my Teacher's pension would no doubt fall again with the £ following a hung parliament or worse but I have a very large savings buffer well away from McDonnell's grasping hands so like most comfortably off I will be ok. However, the masses will be massively let down by a Corbyn government - most of us over 60 know that this is a script which ends with the IMF and austerity on a big scale - see Greece for details.
I wonder when the British will learn to live within their means - it is very sad that the literature which gave us Micawber is so little read and understood by our over-indulged children.
Care to bet on whether the IMF will be called in (assuming a Corbyn PM)? 20 quid to a charity of your choice/my choice says they won't...
Sorry - one important reason why I'm so comfortably off is that I don't gamble on sites like this. long-term blue chips keeps jack a happy lad. I think it will end very badly though - it is what left-wing Labour do. Yes I know they want to raise taxes on companies and the rich to pay for all of it but that is another script we all know the end of. I wonder how many companies will stay post -Brexit if corporation tax shoots up.
Saw a poll of those working in higher education. 50% voting Labour, next Lib Dems on around 25%, Tories at 7%.
How would the removal of tuition fees impact on the financing of HE? Would be a bit of a shock to the system to implement in around 3-months.
As one of the 7%, I think it's safe to say that most of my colleagues don't really think that a Labour government is possible.
In a way, it would't make much immediate difference, in that the Government stands behinds the loan system anyway so as long as they continued to do that then things would carry on as they are. I don't know, but doubt whether the loans liability count towards public borrowing figures or not. If they don't, then they obviously would in the future if the government directly replaced loans with a block grant and then we will see how long the government could and would maintain funding at the current level.
How did we get to a situation where the percentage of Conservative supporters in academia is only about one-sixth of the wider population?
I suspect there are rather more but one has to keep one's head down, or rather there's little point in not doing so as there's mostly incomprehension when it is revealed. The analogy I used last year as a Brexiteer in Cambridge was that it was a bit like what being gay in the 1950s must have been (though without the compulsory sterilisation!). There were others in the same position but you had to speak very carefully before you worked out that you were on the same side & could talk freely. It is a bit like that as a Tory.
@PCollinsTimes: Reports back from the ground are that nobody campaigning has seen a dramatic change. Yet the polls seem to suggest there is.
@PCollinsTimes: People are citing the reports as conclusive evidence that the polls are wrong. Yet that does not follow. Both things can be true.
@PCollinsTimes: There has not been a very dramatic shift. The people making the polls move always liked Corbyn. It's about whether they vote.
@PCollinsTimes: So the two events are compatible. The electorate hasn't changed its mind. It's changed in size. If it has changed.
Shift on the ground on Teesside:
START OF CAMPAIGN: Assumed Darlington and MSEC were Tory gains. Firewall defence of Stockton North and Hartlepool planned, wobbles about Redcar.
NOW: Teams in Darlington and MSEC feeling positive. Stockton North and Hartlepool stable. Stockton South "Labour ahead" poll eye-opening but not absurd.
So having assumed we'd lose at least 2 seats to the Tories and 5 at risk, its now 2 at risk, the others feel safe and the long-written off back into play. And whats driving it from the door knocking sessions I have led are non-voters and won't say last time going Labour this time, and 2 adults Labour kids won't vote last time becoming 4 Labour this time.
What is amazing is that May's natural reaction to all this is NOT to come out swinging (in the boxing sense rather than in the wife-swapping sense).
I cannot think of another British PM for whom that would have been true. Brown was pugnacious in 2010. Major took to his soapbox when it was looking dodgy in 1992 and again when he was clearly going down in 1997. Thatcher, Blair, Callaghan, Wilson... all faced hard elections by jamming in the gum-shield and punching as hard as they could. It's always been fight rather than flight when the going gets tough. Maybe she's a genius and will prove us all wrong through masterful inaction... but it doesn't look good.
Interestingly 2015 the Tories got worries by the narrowing polls (despite their private polls still looking good) and the reaction was to send out Cameron, roll his sleeves up with his no money left note and go town to town.
Yes, Dave really was in another league compared to May. His multiple interventions at the debates etc... definitely helped the party.
Boris is good at that shit too (when carefully managed), but we aren't seeing him. Eric pickles basically won Crewe and nantwich for the Tories standing around the town centre talking to all and sundry.
@jessicaelgot: Spoke to five Labour MPs in different kinds of seats across UK today. All say they have not seen dramatic change polls are suggesting.
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
Looks like Party insiders are not seeing what the polls suggest. Can anyone explain why that might be?
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
Agreed. A Tory activist of my acquaintance who lives in a Lab-Con ultra marginal has been spending their time driving up to Cumbria to canvas there. Either they are flying blind or have totally different polling data than the published polls.
It depends which published polls, ICM has a 14% Tory lead and Comres a 12% Tory lead
NO UKIP are finished PRECISELY because May is pursuing the free movement controls and regained sovereignty every poll shows Tory voters want, any big concessions by the Tories on payments to the EU will see UKIP make a swifter revival than Lazarus, May or no May
I think you need to remember that Nigel Farage captured and channeled anger at Brussels and the status quo like no other party leader before or since. The Lord Nuttall does not have his passion, or his intelligence. (He's also a complete fantasist.) Under Nuttall, I think they would struggle to perform under any scenario except an absolute about U-turn.
Kermit the Frog could lead UKIP and they would poll 20 to 25% if the Tories leave free movement uncontrolled and agree huge payments to the EU
I think it's a bit more subtle than that. If EFTA/EEA is sold as a transitional arrangement to the British people then I doubt they would be more than 10%. If that was combined with compulsory health insurance - as is required for foreigners in Switzerland where it costs more than £2,000 a year - it would probably be more like 6-7%.
Well she's stuck with it. No way she can bail out of this one as well and have a milligram of credibility left.
She'll be OK. People have swung from thinking she's Boadicea to thinking she's hopeless, and to be fair neither is true. She'll play it safe and calmly. Whether that will be enough is another matter.
HYUFD: phone banks. I am sure SNP, Labour and the Lib Dems are eually as ruthless in their marginals. Given Labour have such momentum they are on a roll which delivers in the message over the phone.
Which is why Corbyn has yet to visit a Labour held marginal as far as I can see
Comments
And I certainly don't agree with your seeming implication that the labour one was costed...
But you capture the electorate's mood fairly well I suspect. They will be massively let down if Corbyn is PM, as his policies will screw us over royally, but for next week you are about right.
T May better have another angle tonight than simply talking about who do you want to lead Brexit? I'm getting so much pleasure at the minute by speaking with Tories (i.e. my sister) who cannot stand Theresa May.
If only someone had said that beforehand...
http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-bangladesh-2016-17/engine/match/1019985.html
Bangla 595 runs in first innings.
Lost by 7 wickets.
I'm surprised you don't pay incentives. I know doctors will sometimes do surveys for free but the response rate really drops.
On the point on doing a 20 second interview, I know some MR companies have experimented with sending questions out by text before. Not sure how effective it has been.
Don't forget 48% voted for existing rules. The freedom of movement will need to be softened only slightly to get another 5-10% over.
Then as a new normality comes about, there will be a second referendum either to stay in or outside in a quasi-EEA situation.
Scottish Government officials privately admitted they made the "wrong call" over a major funding announcement for Glasgow made in the build-up to last month's council elections.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/general-election/nicola-sturgeon-facing-probe-demand-in-cash-for-votes-row-1-4464468/amp
Mundell best hold his bloody seat
@PCollinsTimes: Reports back from the ground are that nobody campaigning has seen a dramatic change. Yet the polls seem to suggest there is.
@PCollinsTimes: People are citing the reports as conclusive evidence that the polls are wrong. Yet that does not follow. Both things can be true.
@PCollinsTimes: There has not been a very dramatic shift. The people making the polls move always liked Corbyn. It's about whether they vote.
@PCollinsTimes: So the two events are compatible. The electorate hasn't changed its mind. It's changed in size. If it has changed.
They're probably not if past opinion polling accuracy is anything to go by
1. Corbyn isn't well liked. He is adored by the disaffected and angry. He is despised by the right and their fellow travellers AND the Blairite faction in Labour. And is A Politician to the majority in the middle who try and avoid politics as much as possible. Yes the media have slammed Corbyn endlessly, but thats just wallpaper for the people who don't care about politics. Shocking as it may be the first proper exposure that millions of punters have had to both May and Corbyn is this campaign. And then some of you seem agog that its going as it is
2. This election like all elections offers a simple choice. A tory government. Or a Labour government. As South Park put it a Giant Douche or a Turd Sandwich. Ordinarily a placid populace - the one bred by 40 years of hard work by the establishment - people would say "none of them" and not vote. But not now. They can't afford not to vote. They're fed up and angry and like Howard Beale they're mad as hell and they're not going to take it any more.
So presented with Douche vs Turd the question is who is the least palatable. And for so many voters on so many levels that is Corbyn. Not that Corbyn is good. But May is worse.
3. The economy. People aren't entirely as stupid as the right think they are. They understand capitalism. Invest and get a return on that investment. They want to work and be rewarded for that work and have the cash left over to buy stuff. Work doesn't pay for increasing numbers of people, and that is a system that is very broken. Borrowing money at 0% (as governments now can) to invest in capex that pays a significant ROI is not bankrupting Britain, is not communism, its CAPITALISM and we need a return to some basic principles. People get that. A Labour manifesto promising a glut of investment to create jobs, with better pay, tax rises for me and not them, vs a Tory manifesto of no meals for kids and don't get old - is anyone really that surprised that the polls are moving as sharply as they are?
@jessicaelgot: Most of them have canvassed in many other seats as well as their own. One said YouGov poll had been highly damaging - made voters complacent
@jessicaelgot: @MoFarooq9 Harder for them to turn out voters with motivation of stopping huge Tory landslide, because those voters now don't think that will happen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReIAna459sg
Even if may is shit, you would think they would be doing something.
Either the Tories haven't got a clue what to do or they don't believe the public facing polls.
"We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department is fucked. It's the biggest cock-up ever. We're all completely fucked.”
I thought it was SeanT about the tory election campaign in this election but it was notable in political discourse at the turn of the millennium.
If Labour could get 15 or so seats in Scotland that could make a hell of a difference.
I cannot think of another British PM for whom that would have been true. Brown was pugnacious in 2010. Major took to his soapbox when it was looking dodgy in 1992 and again when he was clearly going down in 1997. Thatcher, Blair, Callaghan, Wilson... all faced hard elections by jamming in the gum-shield and punching as hard as they could. It's always been fight rather than flight when the going gets tough. Maybe she's a genius and will prove us all wrong through masterful inaction... but it doesn't look good.
If the polls are anywhere near right and TM ends up with a small majority or no majority at all and the UK goes in to Brexit negotiations in a God-awful state then there's only one party the public will punish...and it aint Labour
Or to put it in context, the polls are worse for Labour now than they were for much of the 1979 election when several put them ahead (although there were many put them behind as well) and almost all had Callaghan as the most popular leader. Not one poll in over a year has put Labour in the lead. As for Corbyn's leadership ratings, despite the hysteria and the genuine decline in may's personal ratings, his are still worse. The last election for which those are both true is I think 1983 (not sure about 1987, but think Labour were leading about 6 months before). If we add Labour in it's 2001. Think about the implications of that.
This is more significant as in 1979 (a) they were expected to lose and (b) were in government and had more room to control the campaign.
Which is why I wonder what will happen if Labour still get shattered. How horrendous might the reaction be?
Edit - no, Labour had a dip in the polls in September 2000 after the fuel strike didn't they? 1997's the comparison.
It looks like someone is wrong, either way.
I think that's mostly rubbish. Voters do not have the same level of vitriol for May as they do for Corbyn. Maybe the Conservatives but not May. People across the class and age spectrum dislike Corbyn and would never vote for him. You over estimate the number of people who 'adore' him. It's the same hard left political activist sorts that jump on every bandwagon. He can draw a crowd, he can win a social media battle but he cannot win round the quiet majority.
This time tumbleweed....
I'm sure there is lots of money in B2C. I remember back in the day trying to interview finance directors over the phone - Was lucky to get 2 a day.
I'm surprised you don't pay incentives. I know doctors will sometimes do surveys for free but the response rate really drops.
On the point on doing a 20 second interview, I know some MR companies have experimented with sending questions out by text before. Not sure how effective it has been.
You recruit ex-recruitment agents in healthcare as they know how to get past receptionists/pas and get doctors/specialists on the phone. They also have excellent scientific and medical knowledge so when they pitch, they gain trust incredible quickly.
Problem with incentives is most people can't accept them. Policymakers, NGOs, Trade Bodies can't accept any incentive even to charity. So we just started phasing them out about 18 months to 2 years ago.
The hardest kind of market research is when respondents have to sign an NDA for a non-disclosed company/government.
The funniest is when you do a project and 6 months later you see the end client doing something or announcing something because of your research findings and we never get mentioned.
25k is well above minimum wage, and especially well above the combination of minimum wage with part-time hours. And the poorest workers in society will be getting by on much less.
Post-tax it's almost exactly 20k. A quick play with the IFS puts a net household income of 20k comfortably inside the top 50% but just outside the top third. A young couple on 20k each (about 17k after-tax) do just squeeze into the top third (I assumed council tax a bit over 1k).
So while it's true that neither you nor your mum are among the very highest-earning in society (though I hope your income has a lot of room on the upside as your career progresses!) it is on the upper side of the middle, well above the central "hump" of the modal income. In that sense, you or your family may just about be in that "better-off" bracket who we might reasonably expect Corbyn's plans to penalise at the expense of gains for the very low income...
I'd love house prices to flatline for about 30 years.
http://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/faculty/qstep/student-stories-2016/al-aqel.pdf
That will throw off polling models and mean parties could easily be campaigning in the wrong place.
Labour could do better in cities, (perhaps with non-voters) and with the young than they normally do. Conservatives are going to do better everywhere else.
I reckon there will be a lot of churn with both Labour and Tories taking seats off each other but still expect a comfortable Tory majority.
We were so all in it together (i.e., in socialist-engineered sh!te, literally in some places) that the electorate called for Margaret Thatcher who, by public demand, as good as destroyed the Labour Party for a generation. All in it together? DMAL. Were you there? I was.
What we don't know yet is which group. Which is exciting in a way.
START OF CAMPAIGN: Assumed Darlington and MSEC were Tory gains. Firewall defence of Stockton North and Hartlepool planned, wobbles about Redcar.
NOW: Teams in Darlington and MSEC feeling positive. Stockton North and Hartlepool stable. Stockton South "Labour ahead" poll eye-opening but not absurd.
So having assumed we'd lose at least 2 seats to the Tories and 5 at risk, its now 2 at risk, the others feel safe and the long-written off back into play. And whats driving it from the door knocking sessions I have led are non-voters and won't say last time going Labour this time, and 2 adults Labour kids won't vote last time becoming 4 Labour this time.
It'll all be about turnout...