politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More worrying numbers for Team Theresa as doubts amongst punte
Comments
-
Theresa may voted to remain. So that rules her out.Scott_P said:@hansmollman: "Everytime a child says 'I don't believe in fairies' there is a a little fairy somewhere that falls down dead." https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/870248643869200384
0 -
Where the fuck is Hammond?rottenborough said:
Maybe she has had enough and wants to be out walking the hills on 9th June instead of assembling a new Cabinet.Scott_P said:Read it. And weep...
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/870248189118566401
This is beyond bonkers to raise all grammar school dreaming that at this stage.
She should be hammering Labour over the economy and tax from dawn til dusk.
Sometimes I wonder if most of the rest of the Cabinet are happy to hang May out to dry.
0 -
Is she having a breakdown?
@LOS_Fisher: Theresa May's "people can have faith in me because I have faith in them" line... makes no sense...?0 -
Theresa May didn't believe in Brexit, she voted Remain.Scott_P said:@hansmollman: "Everytime a child says 'I don't believe in fairies' there is a a little fairy somewhere that falls down dead." https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/870248643869200384
0 -
It will be sub 50 now. The campaign is just too crap to bear.SeanT said:
Despite my gusset-wetting, I still think you're right: TMay will get some sort of majority.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's fun to watch.JohnO said:Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.
However I wonder if it could be really really tiny, and what that will do to her. If it's sub-50, she is in trouble. If it's under 20, she resigns?0 -
Changes since GE2015:bigjohnowls said:OMG
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago
More
London Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 50% (+9)
CON: 33% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (-3)
UKIP: 3% (-3)
GRN: 2 (-1)
(via @YouGov / 26 - 31 May)
Lab +6
Con -2
LD +3
UKIP -5
Green -3
Full results for London in 2015:
Lab 43.69%
Con 34.88%
UKIP 8.12%
LD 7.71%
Greens 4.85%
Others 0.75%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QE57smiTTefgOGeWIbnipZRmTPOkwpaKNHV_Cyx4T0/edit#gid=0
(Scroll down to bottom for regional results)0 -
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.0
-
Tell me your secret. I am changing my nappy three times a day.JohnO said:Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
Colostomy bag?0 -
Good spot. With whom ?Pulpstar said:Labour are at 5-2 to hold Enfield North.
0 -
@PolhomeEditor: Michael Crick goes in studs-up on the PM, telling her: "All we get is soundbites and platitudes. People think there's nothing there."0
-
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.0
-
Where is Mrs Frit and zimmer framed campaigning today ?0
-
In which social groups do they poll badly? It might make perfect sense if you think your majority will be built on the oldies and former kippers.nunu said:
This has to be it. She doesn't want to be PM any more. It is the only explanation. Why campaign on Grammar schools when they poll badly? Why? Why?rottenborough said:
Maybe she has had enough and wants to be out walking the hills on 9th June instead of assembling a new Cabinet.Scott_P said:Read it. And weep...
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/870248189118566401
This is beyond bonkers to raise all grammar school dreaming that at this stage.
She should be hammering Labour over the economy and tax from dawn til dusk.
Please someone tell me what the hell is going on?0 -
Not since Cameron and Osborne took their top hats.....IanB2 said:
LOL Have they even got a hat?kjohnw said:The Tories had better have some bloody big rabbits to pull out of the hat in this last week or we are all screwed. I keep hoping the events since the Tory manifesto launch are just a nightmare I am having and I will wake up and find TM still has a twenty point lead heading for a landslide with a strategy and a manifesto that is well thought out......then reality dawns and the cliff is approaching fast
0 -
I might go to church this Sunday, light a candle, and pray.
Southampton Test haven't got back to me.
Anyone got a number?0 -
East or West?oldpolitics said:
She'll be going to Georgia next... I've heard it's in play.calum said:
In denial !Slackbladder said:Michael CrickVERIFIED ACCOUNT @MichaelLCrick 5 mins5 minutes ago
Conservatives may be in trouble, but May's itinerary today suggests she's still very much on the offensive, visiting seats held by Labour
Edit. Or South?0 -
Bet365. Trader must be on holiday.TheScreamingEagles said:
Good spot. With whom ?Pulpstar said:Labour are at 5-2 to hold Enfield North.
0 -
If only the market would fully reflect the PB bed wetting there would be value to be had.AlsoIndigo said:Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/01/andrea-leadsom-emerges-as-pro-brexit-choice-for-tory-leadership/TravelJunkie said:
Theresa may voted to remain. So that rules her out.Scott_P said:@hansmollman: "Everytime a child says 'I don't believe in fairies' there is a a little fairy somewhere that falls down dead." https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/870248643869200384
In an interview with the Daily Telegraph, Mrs Leadsom suggested that Mrs May should not become the next Conservative Party leader and prime minister because she does not "believe" in taking Britain out of the EU.0 -
Perhaps at the next GE we can persuade Shadsy to stand for ParliamentPulpstar said:
Bet365. Trader must be on holiday.TheScreamingEagles said:
Good spot. With whom ?Pulpstar said:Labour are at 5-2 to hold Enfield North.
0 -
2022's Paul Mason ?Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Michael Crick goes in studs-up on the PM, telling her: "All we get is soundbites and platitudes. People think there's nothing there."
0 -
I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)SeanT said:
Of course the EU would offer us Soft Brexit - i.e. EFTA or EEA. We'd have to accept Free Movement, pay some contributions, and we'd have no say over EU laws. It's win-win for them, they get money, uninterrupted trade, and Britain is seen to do worse.AlsoIndigo said:
You continue to fantasize about Soft BrExit, its like the yeti, lots of people talk about it, but there isn't the faintest shred of evidence that it exists. Every word that has passed the lips of every EU official and negotiator for the past year has been very, mononotously clear, its hard BrExit or No BrExit.SeanT said:
If she wins a decent majority - 50+ - she'll survive, if she gets over 80 or 100 everyone will forget her dire campaign (until the next one).SouthamObserver said:
That is, without doubt, the case. And May has blown her chances of a White Cliffs of Dover, We Shall Never Surrender Brexit by being so useless. The Tories are going to get rid of her sooner rather than later, I imagine. But who takes over who can keep them together?Beverley_C said:
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.williamglenn said:
It's possible t 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.Beverley_C said:
Fair enough, but her behaviour makes me wonder. If she was a Remainer, why would she want to be a PM who has to be a "Leave" PM? Either she was never a Remainer and was just following Cabinet policy or if she was a Remainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.RobD said:
A bit unfair, she gave a good speech on why Britain should stay in the EU that TOPPING linked below. She clearly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)Beverley_C said:
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote shareTheScreamingEagles said:Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
As for Brexit, I foresee something like this: talks begin and almost immediately stalemate on the EU's demands. The government has a vast internal battle, as it becomes obvious that the choice is between Crash Brexit and Soft Brexit (stay in SM etc), because there is no Bespoke Brexit that is acceptable to the UK.
Who wins? Dunno.
But a British PM would have to sell that to the country. Perhaps Prime Minister Corbyn is the man.0 -
Good comeback from her, to be fair.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Michael Crick goes in studs-up on the PM, telling her: "All we get is soundbites and platitudes. People think there's nothing there."
I've got SKY on in the background.0 -
If Crosby and Messina have absolute control of the campaign (and I sure hope they do), then presumably this grammar school stuff - not something to tickle my fancy - is deemed to resonate with their targeted constituency. And previous polls have confirmed that to be the case.
But I'm mystified why there has been nothing, absolutely nothing, on the economy: that's the antithesis of the 2015 campaign where yet another rendition of that bloody "long term economic plan" would send even the bluest of us into that darkened room. But Blimey O'Reilly it delivered the goods,0 -
Haul ass and campaign in Don Valley.Casino_Royale said:I might go to church this Sunday, light a candle, and pray.
Southampton Test haven't got back to me.
Anyone got a number?0 -
The good news for the Tories in London is that they're only defending 2 seats with a majority of less than 8% against Labour. Croydon Central and Hendon. And the latter is unlikely to fall because it has a majority of 7.5% and is in Barnet. So basically it's just Croydon Central at risk. Majority = 165.0
-
But can she have faith in us because we have faith in her?Scott_P said:Is she having a breakdown?
@LOS_Fisher: Theresa May's "people can have faith in me because I have faith in them" line... makes no sense...?
Song and strable
Went the phable
Of Theresa May
Weak and wobbly
Bibbly bobbly
Was all she had to say0 -
The Virgin Queen was a nervous boring robot? You live and learn.Casino_Royale said:
A Corbyn victory all hinges on whether one sexy manifesto, and one huge Tory manifesto fuck-up, combined with May being a bit nervous, boring and robotic (rather Queen Elizabeth I) is enough to overturn the leadership and economy ratings, all the evidence of the electoral results over the last few months, and all our assumptions about swingback.Sean_F said:
It would equate to shares of Lab 38%, Con 37% nationwide.SeanT said:
If that repeats across the UK it's Prime Minister Corbyn.Scott_P said:NCPoliticsUK: YouGov/QMUL (London Westminster):
CON 33 (-3)
LAB 50 (+9)
LD 11 (-3)
UKIP 3 (-3)
GRN 2 (-1)
26th-31st May
N~1,000
#GE2017
That suggests that the Conservatives are performing significantly better outside of the capital.
Maybe. Maybe not. Personally the sense I get from my Tory friends is exasperation, but they'll still be voting Tory.
I don't doubt Corbyn has seen huge surges with the under 30s, and may even be close to level in the 35-45 bracket, but he is still massively behind with the over 55s.
Brexit won because it had those demographics, plus peeled off enough younger ABs and enough WWC voters to carry it over the line.
Corbyn doesn't have that.0 -
Look at that Sky voxpop from Bridgend, Wales. People DON'T find Corbyn toxic. They find him surprisingly human and empathetic (I disagree, but these are the reports); they also like free stuff. Also, they've REALLY gone off Theresa, and given that "Theresa is better than Jeremy" was the essence of the Tory campaign, that ain't good.
You may, however, be right about the Tory data and voter efficiency; I have no idea.
seen a clip of a youth debate on S4C tonight when youngesters grill Nia Griffith its not very good watching for Labour as they say your not serious on security, Jeremy Corbyn's history, stop bribing the youth vote, borrow borrow borrow0 -
Just seven more awful days to go... 0
-
According to this poll, Labour are actually up in London "only" as much as they are in the rest of the UK (the national YouGov polls have had Labour up 5-8% compared to 2015 over the past week, so a 6% rise in London is bang in line with that).AndyJS said:
Changes since GE2015:bigjohnowls said:OMG
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago
More
London Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 50% (+9)
CON: 33% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (-3)
UKIP: 3% (-3)
GRN: 2 (-1)
(via @YouGov / 26 - 31 May)
Lab +6
Con -2
LD +3
UKIP -5
Green -3
Full results for London in 2015:
Lab 43.69%
Con 34.88%
UKIP 8.12%
LD 7.71%
Greens 4.85%
Others 0.75%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QE57smiTTefgOGeWIbnipZRmTPOkwpaKNHV_Cyx4T0/edit#gid=0
(Scroll down to bottom for regional results)
That said, the Conservatives are doing considerably worse in London than nationally, so the Con->Lab swing still more substantial there than elsewhere. The difference made up by the LibDems doing a bit better in London than nationally, and UKIP also having a "better" drop in London than nationally (only because they had less support to lose in London in the first place than they did nationally).0 -
Sean T asked for it back and I obliged. Sorry.Casino_Royale said:
Tell me your secret. I am changing my nappy three times a day.JohnO said:Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
Colostomy bag?0 -
Lol, go for it Theresa. Maybe a mention of fox-hunting and another review of social care plans, just to make it perfect?rottenborough said:
Maybe she has had enough and wants to be out walking the hills on 9th June instead of assembling a new Cabinet.Scott_P said:Read it. And weep...
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/870248189118566401
This is beyond bonkers to raise all grammar school dreaming that at this stage.
She should be hammering Labour over the economy and tax from dawn til dusk.
0 -
-
And not very well targeted either, I haven't seen a FB or Youtube ad from the Tories (imagine they have me flagged as a known Socialist) but lots from the Lib Dems and I'm not even in a LD target seat.IanB2 said:
Pretty much every begging email I get from the LibDems mentions the cost of online stuff like FB adds, so it must be eating up a good slice of the parties' spending.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
The Conservatives were always going nowhere in London. At the start of the campaign, their support was only 3% higher than it is now.SeanT said:
Anything under 50 will be seen as a defeat. She will be on borrowed time. Wounded and limping. As I say: under 20 she would have to quit.nunu said:
It will be sub 50 now. The campaign is just too crap to bear.SeanT said:
Despite my gusset-wetting, I still think you're right: TMay will get some sort of majority.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's fun to watch.JohnO said:Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.
However I wonder if it could be really really tiny, and what that will do to her. If it's sub-50, she is in trouble. If it's under 20, she resigns?
And she could actually lose her majority tomorrow night, with one more calamitous performance.
We need to start gaming Hung Parliament scenarios.
The Conservatives are therefore considerably outperforming their national rating in other parts of the country.0 -
As I said a couple of weeks ago, after all this, wouldn't it be funny if Tezza ended up with the same-sized majority she already had? 20-odd.SeanT said:
Anything under 50 will be seen as a defeat. She will be on borrowed time. Wounded and limping. As I say: under 20 she would have to quit.nunu said:
It will be sub 50 now. The campaign is just too crap to bear.SeanT said:
Despite my gusset-wetting, I still think you're right: TMay will get some sort of majority.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's fun to watch.JohnO said:Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.
However I wonder if it could be really really tiny, and what that will do to her. If it's sub-50, she is in trouble. If it's under 20, she resigns?
And she could actually lose her majority tomorrow night, with one more calamitous performance.
We need to start gaming Hung Parliament scenarios.0 -
edit0
-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6Khs6h23nI
This guy sums the election campaign up and he predicted it April 27th.
1) Theresa May doesn't want to participate in the election.
2) Tory supporters just spend all day throwing mud at Corbyn.0 -
I live in Hampshire.TheScreamingEagles said:
Haul ass and campaign in Don Valley.Casino_Royale said:I might go to church this Sunday, light a candle, and pray.
Southampton Test haven't got back to me.
Anyone got a number?0 -
The new line is that the economy will suffer unless we "get Brexit right" which is even more platitudinous bollox than "long term economic plan"JohnO said:If Crosby and Messina have absolute control of the campaign (and I sure hope they do), then presumably this grammar school stuff - not something to tickle my fancy - is deemed to resonate with their targeted constituency. And previous polls have confirmed that to be the case.
But I'm mystified why there has been nothing, absolutely nothing, on the economy: that's the antithesis of the 2015 campaign where yet another rendition of that bloody "long term economic plan" would send even the bluest of us into that darkened room. But Blimey O'Reilly it delivered the goods,0 -
Even a soft Brexit means going through the Article 50 wringer with tough demands on Northern Ireland, money, etc. In practice soft Brexit means no Brexit, ever.rcs1000 said:I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)
0 -
If she tries that tomorrow on QT, Corbyn mentions private schools and the election is over. How can anyone talk about schools and social mobility in Britain without mentioning the most important division? The Tories back upward mobility for spivs and that's about it. As for downward mobility, why isn't Soamesy washing car windscreens somewhere?Scott_P said:Read it. And weep...
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/870248189118566401
CD13's "We will hit an economic whirlwind when Corbyn takes over and he'll blame it totally on Brexit" seems apt. The whole Brexit narrative has been awful for this country, and Corbyn is absolutely right that "no deal" would mean an appallingly bad deal. So, out the Tories go - they've effed the country up, the rich have made a packet, and someone else will have to clear up after them. Thank goodness Labour has a competent leader.
0 -
There is a difference between a bad campaign and how the ground game is going to turn out. If you google wobbles for 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2015 you always find one in a campaign and the eventual winner of those campaigns had a wobble. Go back further in time to 1987 and even Thatcher had a wobble.nunu said:
It will be sub 50 now. The campaign is just too crap to bear.SeanT said:
Despite my gusset-wetting, I still think you're right: TMay will get some sort of majority.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's fun to watch.JohnO said:Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.
However I wonder if it could be really really tiny, and what that will do to her. If it's sub-50, she is in trouble. If it's under 20, she resigns?
I am surprised at SeanT, surely as a journalist he knows the game of elections. It is all about story telling!
I don't particularly like the PM but I think Corbyn's proposals sound delightful until you think where is the money going to come from to pay for it all? Any rational being will change their behaviour to avoid the taxes he will instigate. It is just pie in the sky, I would probably be better off under Labour in the short term at least but I just have no faith in Corbyn being able to deliver anything but a mess.0 -
Many thanks for the tip, I'm in as deep as dare on that.Pulpstar said:
Bet365. Trader must be on holiday.TheScreamingEagles said:
Good spot. With whom ?Pulpstar said:Labour are at 5-2 to hold Enfield North.
O/T
Can anyone point me to a UK resource that shows Industry-Specific Multiples for EBIT when valuing businesses? I've found USA ones.0 -
Difference between 2015 and now is that Sir Lynton (pbuh) had two years to plan the Tory campaign, this time he's had two months and boy it shows.JohnO said:If Crosby and Messina have absolute control of the campaign (and I sure hope they do), then presumably this grammar school stuff - not something to tickle my fancy - is deemed to resonate with their targeted constituency. And previous polls have confirmed that to be the case.
But I'm mystified why there has been nothing, absolutely nothing, on the economy: that's the antithesis of the 2015 campaign where yet another rendition of that bloody "long term economic plan" would send even the bluest of us into that darkened room. But Blimey O'Reilly it delivered the goods,
Plus the rumours persist Mrs May and her staff believe they know better than Sir Lynton, cf the dementia tax.
Whereas Dave trusted Sir Lynton implicitly and vice versa.
Plus Dave was very nimble on his feet0 -
"The politically engaged are a tiny, but enthusiastic, percentage of the population. The difficulty for opinion pollsters is that they are not representative of the public. They follow politicians and political journalists on twitter, they post about politics on forums, they watch Newsnight and the Daily Politics, digest the info and answer polls. They like to show off their understanding and want everyone/anyone to know that A GREAT DEAL OF THOUGHT HAS GONE INTO THIS. As most men in the pub discuss football, they are online discussing politics. While the man in the pub will generally quite bluntly say who he (always) votes for when asked, the politically engaged find such partisan loyalty an affront to critical thinking - being seen to be "undecided" is a badge of honour, it shows they are a serious person. They admire intellectual reasoning and put a high price on their vote, so when the chance comes to answer questions on how they think and why, it's like giving someone a big line of cocaine and asking them to talk about themselves. Political obsessives are the material of opinion polls, but not the fabric of the nation. "
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html?m=10 -
I haven't seen Hammond on TV for about 3 weeks.Casino_Royale said:
Where the fuck is Hammond?rottenborough said:
Maybe she has had enough and wants to be out walking the hills on 9th June instead of assembling a new Cabinet.Scott_P said:Read it. And weep...
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/870248189118566401
This is beyond bonkers to raise all grammar school dreaming that at this stage.
She should be hammering Labour over the economy and tax from dawn til dusk.
Sometimes I wonder if most of the rest of the Cabinet are happy to hang May out to dry.0 -
Like Corbyn?Scott_P said:@hansmollman: "Everytime a child says 'I don't believe in fairies' there is a a little fairy somewhere that falls down dead." https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/870248643869200384
0 -
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.TheScreamingEagles said:Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
0 -
To be honest, I'd probably take EFTA-EEA now.rcs1000 said:
I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)SeanT said:
Of course the EU would offer us Soft Brexit - i.e. EFTA or EEA. We'd have to accept Free Movement, pay some contributions, and we'd have no say over EU laws. It's win-win for them, they get money, uninterrupted trade, and Britain is seen to do worse.AlsoIndigo said:
.SeanT said:
If she wins a decent majority - 50+ - she'll survive, if she gets over 80 or 100 everyone will forget her dire campaign (until the next one).SouthamObserver said:
That is, without doubt, the case. And May has blown her chances of a White Cliffs of Dover, We Shall Never Surrender Brexit by being so useless. The Tories are going to get rid of her sooner rather than later, I imagine. But who takes over who can keep them together?Beverley_C said:
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.williamglenn said:
It's possible t 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.Beverley_C said:
Fair enough, but her behaviour makes me wonder. If she was a Remainer, why would she want to be a PM who has to be a "Leave" PM? Either she was never a Remainer and was just following Cabinet policy or if she was a Remainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.RobD said:
A bit unfair, she gave a good speech on why Britain should stay in the EU that TOPPING linked below. She clearly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)Beverley_C said:
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote shareTheScreamingEagles said:Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
Who wins? Dunno.
But a British PM would have to sell that to the country. Perhaps Prime Minister Corbyn is the man.
It's not like immigration is going to massively come down with an official ending of free movement, anyway, and we'd still have an emergency break.
If it doesn't pan out, split again once we've recalibrated all out trade deals and schedules in 10-15 years time, and people have got fed up of us not having a say in the rules.0 -
QMUL write up - Hendon 7/1 with BetFair !!
--- Croydon Central from Conservative to Labour
--- Hendon from Conservative to Labour
--- Kingston and Surbiton from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
--- Twickenham from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
http://www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/items/hss/198136.html0 -
ExactlyAlsoIndigo said:Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.
0 -
According to a recent Reuters poll, 14 of 30 economists that participated think that a Conservative Party win would be the best for the U.K. on Brexit negotiations.
11 think a coalition government would be best
5 think a Labour win would be best0 -
Since that joint presser where she was asked if she'd fire him. Maybe he wasn't too happy with the replyAndyJS said:
I haven't seen Hammond on TV for about 3 weeks.Casino_Royale said:
Where the fuck is Hammond?rottenborough said:
Maybe she has had enough and wants to be out walking the hills on 9th June instead of assembling a new Cabinet.Scott_P said:Read it. And weep...
twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/870248189118566401
This is beyond bonkers to raise all grammar school dreaming that at this stage.
She should be hammering Labour over the economy and tax from dawn til dusk.
Sometimes I wonder if most of the rest of the Cabinet are happy to hang May out to dry.
0 -
Which begs the question, do the Tories currently fear losing some of that core vote? Instead of seeking to make gains, are they battling to hold what they've already got?TudorRose said:
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.TheScreamingEagles said:Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
0 -
I'm beginning to wonder if the social media campaign is overshadowing the 'real' campaign. If these targeted messages are getting confused with a national campaign message then there could be a lot of very strange sound bites coming out.JohnO said:If Crosby and Messina have absolute control of the campaign (and I sure hope they do), then presumably this grammar school stuff - not something to tickle my fancy - is deemed to resonate with their targeted constituency. And previous polls have confirmed that to be the case.
But I'm mystified why there has been nothing, absolutely nothing, on the economy: that's the antithesis of the 2015 campaign where yet another rendition of that bloody "long term economic plan" would send even the bluest of us into that darkened room. But Blimey O'Reilly it delivered the goods,
Edited extra bit. I'm also mystified why the Labour manifesto hasn't been dissected to deathand hammered on about. It's what the great unwashed understand and expect.0 -
So Tories worried about core vote, that's a limiting losses strategy. Simply amazing.TudorRose said:
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.TheScreamingEagles said:Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
0 -
Hold on. Aren't we supposed to be well past the core vote by now? Last I heard, before May's campaign blew itself up, they were pushing to take seats in the North East.TudorRose said:
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.TheScreamingEagles said:Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
0 -
BBC Debate got 3.51m - bang in line with expectations. But of course many more would have seen clips on news etc. Last night's ratings (will post the lot for context / general interest):
18:00: BBC News at Six - 4.15m (31.5%)
18:30: BBC Regional News - 4.58m (32.1%)
19:00: The One Show - 2.64m (17.3%)
19:30: BBC Election Debate - 3.51m (17.8%)
21:00: The Met: Policing London - 3.42m (16.2%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 4.53m (27.0%)
18:00: ITV Regional News - 2.92m (22.5%)
18:25: Party Election Broadcast - 2.70m (19.5%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.85m (20.0%)
19:00: Emmerdale - 5.43m (35.6%)
19:30: Britain's Got Talent - 7.16m (36.4%)
* peak - 8.38m (38.1%) at 20:50
21:05: Coronation Street - 7.60m (35.3%)
21:35: Britain's Got Talent Results - 6.11m (29.1%)
* peak - 7.03m (33.0%) at 21:55
22:05: ITV News at Ten - 2.24m (14.1%)0 -
Any major bods been campaigning in Croydon Central?AndyJS said:The good news for the Tories in London is that they're only defending 2 seats with a majority of less than 8% against Labour. Croydon Central and Hendon. And the latter is unlikely to fall because it has a majority of 7.5% and is in Barnet. So basically it's just Croydon Central at risk. Majority = 165.
0 -
No. 12-15% lead and majority of 100. But like everyone here, I agree the campaign has been, er, sub-optimal.SeanT said:
The final redoubt crumbles. JohnO is worried.JohnO said:If Crosby and Messina have absolute control of the campaign (and I sure hope they do), then presumably this grammar school stuff - not something to tickle my fancy - is deemed to resonate with their targeted constituency. And previous polls have confirmed that to be the case.
But I'm mystified why there has been nothing, absolutely nothing, on the economy: that's the antithesis of the 2015 campaign where yet another rendition of that bloody "long term economic plan" would send even the bluest of us into that darkened room. But Blimey O'Reilly it delivered the goods,0 -
When the poll comes back showing Labour level in the Midlands is when the PB bowels truly drop.The_Apocalypse said:
ExactlyAlsoIndigo said:Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.0 -
In reality, I suspect the high Jewish population would keep Hendon blue even if Labour do win by 17 points in London as a whole.calum said:QMUL write up - Hendon 7/1 with BetFair !!
--- Croydon Central from Conservative to Labour
--- Hendon from Conservative to Labour
--- Kingston and Surbiton from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
--- Twickenham from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
http://www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/items/hss/198136.html
On the other hand, the high young population in Battersea would edge that perilously close to the Labour column on these numbers.0 -
Maybe he's fighting to hold onto his seat, what with the massive Corbyn surge that is sweeping the country (according to YouGov).RobD said:
Since that joint presser where she was asked if she'd fire him. Maybe he wasn't too happy with the replyAndyJS said:
I haven't seen Hammond on TV for about 3 weeks.Casino_Royale said:
Where the fuck is Hammond?rottenborough said:
Maybe she has had enough and wants to be out walking the hills on 9th June instead of assembling a new Cabinet.Scott_P said:Read it. And weep...
twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/870248189118566401
This is beyond bonkers to raise all grammar school dreaming that at this stage.
She should be hammering Labour over the economy and tax from dawn til dusk.
Sometimes I wonder if most of the rest of the Cabinet are happy to hang May out to dry.0 -
Darn.JohnO said:
Sean T asked for it back and I obliged. Sorry.Casino_Royale said:
Tell me your secret. I am changing my nappy three times a day.JohnO said:Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
Colostomy bag?0 -
I am told that it is a sight to behold!Pulpstar said:
When the poll comes back showing Labour level in the Midlands is when the PB bowels truly drop.The_Apocalypse said:
ExactlyAlsoIndigo said:Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.0 -
I'm beginning to fear the worst, the election is running away from the tories, They haven't once mentioned a strong economy, low taxes and unemployment, strong defence and security, and the UNS of a clear and determined Brexit. Instead all we are hearing is fox hunting, social care costs, hammering the pensioners and grammar schools etc. etc. Who is advising the tory campaign, this is beyond dire, if they still manage to scrape a win it will be a miracle. The vox pops are not sounding good, shes become like bread that has turned mouldy, no longer fresh and appealing. Whereas Corbyn is looking like a Chocolate Fudge Cake, sweet and gooey and appealing, but guaranteed to make you sick once consumed in full.SeanT said:
Despite my gusset-wetting, I still think you're right: TMay will get some sort of majority.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's fun to watch.JohnO said:Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.
However I wonder if it could be really really tiny, and what that will do to her. If it's sub-50, she is in trouble. If it's under 20, she resigns?0 -
I think its imagined that he would be vulnerable to being asked how the Tories are going to pay for their manifesto and what taxes would go up.AndyJS said:
I haven't seen Hammond on TV for about 3 weeks.Casino_Royale said:
Where the fuck is Hammond?rottenborough said:
Maybe she has had enough and wants to be out walking the hills on 9th June instead of assembling a new Cabinet.Scott_P said:Read it. And weep...
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/870248189118566401
This is beyond bonkers to raise all grammar school dreaming that at this stage.
She should be hammering Labour over the economy and tax from dawn til dusk.
Sometimes I wonder if most of the rest of the Cabinet are happy to hang May out to dry.
Or he is doing what May did during the EU Ref and preserving his reputation for the post-election leadership battle...
Also there has been briefing about how No 10 are going to sack him or break up the Treasury after the GE so I don't imagine he feels any loyalty to May.0 -
They still might be. They definitely would have been but for this awful campaign. Blyth Valley was very close on local election numbers.rottenborough said:
Hold on. Aren't we supposed to be well past the core vote by now? Last I heard, before May's campaign blew itself up, they were pushing to take seats in the North East.TudorRose said:
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.TheScreamingEagles said:Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
0 -
Even at the start, we had polls showing the Conservatives slipping back (but still winning) Battersea and Kensington.0
-
I've revised my 60-80 down to 20-40. The former would still be a decent win, the latter a poor result.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's fun to watch.JohnO said:Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.0 -
"Polls which showed a huge Conservative majority have been dismissed as wrong, misleading or downright lies for weeks, but that’s all changed now.
YouGov, the organisation which ran the poll, was until yesterday a Tory front organisation dedicated to doing Jeremy Corbyn down, but is now at the forefront of accurate data and should be taken as the blue riband standard of polling organisations."
http://newsthump.com/2017/05/31/polls-suddenly-accurate/0 -
The swing across London may not be uniform either. Labour might be doing exceptionally well in seats they already hold, less well towards the M25....Danny565 said:
According to this poll, Labour are actually up in London "only" as much as they are in the rest of the UK (the national YouGov polls have had Labour up 5-8% compared to 2015 over the past week, so a 6% rise in London is bang in line with that).AndyJS said:
Changes since GE2015:bigjohnowls said:OMG
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago
More
London Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 50% (+9)
CON: 33% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (-3)
UKIP: 3% (-3)
GRN: 2 (-1)
(via @YouGov / 26 - 31 May)
Lab +6
Con -2
LD +3
UKIP -5
Green -3
Full results for London in 2015:
Lab 43.69%
Con 34.88%
UKIP 8.12%
LD 7.71%
Greens 4.85%
Others 0.75%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QE57smiTTefgOGeWIbnipZRmTPOkwpaKNHV_Cyx4T0/edit#gid=0
(Scroll down to bottom for regional results)
That said, the Conservatives are doing considerably worse in London than nationally, so the Con->Lab swing still more substantial there than elsewhere. The difference made up by the LibDems doing a bit better in London than nationally, and UKIP also having a "better" drop in London than nationally (only because they had less support to lose in London in the first place than they did nationally).0 -
This is going bonkers. She has gone to a Labour held marginal in NE to announce a policy that is intended to shore up the collapsing Tory core vote to save from a hung parliament.logical_song said:
So Tories worried about core vote, that's a limiting losses strategy. Simply amazing.TudorRose said:
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.TheScreamingEagles said:Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
Eh?0 -
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.SeanT said:
If Corbyn wins, or we get a Hung Parliament, expect Bremorse and Bregret to surge, amongst rightwingers. We will probably see polls showing 60/40 Remain/Leave in a year.Casino_Royale said:
To be honest, I'd probably take EFTA-EEA now.rcs1000 said:
I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)SeanT said:
Of course the EU would offer us Soft Brexit - i.e. EFTA or EEA. We'd have to accept Free Movement, pay some contributions, and we'd have no say over EU laws. It's win-win for them, they get money, uninterrupted trade, and Britain is seen to do worse.AlsoIndigo said:
.SeanT said:
If she wins a decent majority - 50+ - she'll survive, if she gets over 80 or 100 everyone will forget her dire campaign (until the next one).SouthamObserver said:
That is, with over who can keep them together?Beverley_C said:
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.williamglenn said:
It's possible t 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.Beverley_C said:
Fair enough, mainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.RobD said:
A bit uly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)Beverley_C said:
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote shareTheScreamingEagles said:Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
Who wins? Dunno.
But a British PM would have to sell that to the country. Perhaps Prime Minister Corbyn is the man.
It's not like immigration is going to massively come down with an official ending of free movement, anyway, and we'd still have an emergency break.
If it doesn't pan out, split again once we've recalibrated all out trade deals and schedules in 10-15 years time, and people have got fed up of us not having a say in the rules.0 -
I've always said that Brexit should be seen as a process, rather than a single one off date, with us slowly disengaging ourselves over time. Otherwise you run the risk of a Brexit recession, on the back of people deferring investment decisions as the future is unclear. And a serious Brexit recession (which given our savings rate is at multi-decade lows is a very real possibility) would poison British politics for a generation.Casino_Royale said:
To be honest, I'd probably take EFTA-EEA now.rcs1000 said:
I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)SeanT said:
Of course the EU would offer us Soft Brexit - i.e. EFTA or EEA. We'd have to accept Free Movement, pay some contributions, and we'd have no say over EU laws. It's win-win for them, they get money, uninterrupted trade, and Britain is seen to do worse.AlsoIndigo said:
.SeanT said:
If she wins a decent majority - 50+ - she'll survive, if she gets over 80 or 100 everyone will forget her dire campaign (until the next one).SouthamObserver said:
That is, without doubt, the case. And May has blown her chances of a White Cliffs of Dover, We Shall Never Surrender Brexit by being so useless. The Tories are going to get rid of her sooner rather than later, I imagine. But who takes over who can keep them together?Beverley_C said:
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.williamglenn said:
It's possible t 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.Beverley_C said:
Fair enough, but her behaviour makes me wonder. If she was a Remainer, why would she want to be a PM who has to be a "Leave" PM? Either she was never a Remainer and was just following Cabinet policy or if she was a Remainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.RobD said:A bit unfair, she gave a good speech on why Britain should stay in the EU that TOPPING linked below. She clearly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)
Who wins? Dunno.
But a British PM would have to sell that to the country. Perhaps Prime Minister Corbyn is the man.
It's not like immigration is going to massively come down with an official ending of free movement, anyway, and we'd still have an emergency break.
If it doesn't pan out, split again once we've recalibrated all out trade deals and schedules in 10-15 years time, and people have got fed up of us not having a say in the rules.0 -
Maybe grammars play well in the NE?!rottenborough said:
This is going bonkers. She has gone to a Labour held marginal in NE to announce a policy that is intended to shore up the collapsing Tory core vote to save from a hung parliament.logical_song said:
So Tories worried about core vote, that's a limiting losses strategy. Simply amazing.TudorRose said:
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.TheScreamingEagles said:Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
Eh?0 -
Advice for PB Tories.
http://www.healthline.com/health/digestive-health/most-effective-diarrhea-remedies#overview10 -
Is it fair to say that today Labour have momentum?
(which will no doubt please Momentum)0 -
The Kippers who vote for him will certainly regret it.SeanT said:
If Corbyn wins, or we get a Hung Parliament, expect Bremorse and Bregret to surge, amongst rightwingers. We will probably see polls showing 60/40 Remain/Leave in a year.Casino_Royale said:
To be honest, I'd probably take EFTA-EEA now.rcs1000 said:
I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)SeanT said:
Of course the EU would offer us Soft Brexit - i.e. EFTA or EEA. We'd have to accept Free Movement, pay some contributions, and we'd have no say over EU laws. It's win-win for them, they get money, uninterrupted trade, and Britain is seen to do worse.AlsoIndigo said:
.SeanT said:
If she wins a decent majority - 50+ - she'll survive, if she gets over 80 or 100 everyone will forget her dire campaign (until the next one).SouthamObserver said:
That is, with over who can keep them together?Beverley_C said:
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.williamglenn said:
It's possible t 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.Beverley_C said:
Fair enough, mainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.RobD said:
A bit uly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)Beverley_C said:
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote shareTheScreamingEagles said:Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
Who wins? Dunno.
But a British PM would have to sell that to the country. Perhaps Prime Minister Corbyn is the man.
It's not like immigration is going to massively come down with an official ending of free movement, anyway, and we'd still have an emergency break.
If it doesn't pan out, split again once we've recalibrated all out trade deals and schedules in 10-15 years time, and people have got fed up of us not having a say in the rules.0 -
Labour ahead in the Midlands/Wales subsample on today's YouGovPulpstar said:
When the poll comes back showing Labour level in the Midlands is when the PB bowels truly drop.The_Apocalypse said:
ExactlyAlsoIndigo said:Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands. 0 -
As it happens I'm canvassing in Kingston and Surbiton this evening: won't be able to discern much from one evening (though I'll ask the team about responses thus far) and report back.Danny565 said:
In reality, I suspect the high Jewish population would keep Hendon blue even if Labour do win by 17 points in London as a whole.calum said:QMUL write up - Hendon 7/1 with BetFair !!
--- Croydon Central from Conservative to Labour
--- Hendon from Conservative to Labour
--- Kingston and Surbiton from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
--- Twickenham from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
http://www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/items/hss/198136.html
On the other hand, the high young population in Battersea would edge that perilously close to the Labour column on these numbers.0 -
Wales is poorest part of the UK.SeanT said:
This feels terrible. This feels like YouGov is right, and the Tories are gonna lose seats.Freggles said:
This feels like Trump, this feels like Brexit.
Labour are now 5/1 to have most seats....
Corbyn is promising to give them lots of cash, paid for by rich people and corporations.
It would be staggering if it wasn't going down well there....
0 -
-
Crick making a total idiot of himself in that question and answer Session and allowed May a good hit.
Neither May or Corbyn are talking to us anymore, remember that. May is ploughing the furrow of Brexiteers and kippers and economy driven voters, Corbyn is playing to the smash the system crowd and old labour and the youth. She's not going to say things politicos want to hear nor is he. They will say things the general public want to hear.
London going hard for Corbyn probably means the Tory tactic is working. Whither London away go the rest.0 -
Perhaps he's doing it for financial reasons. Firm up your core support to get resources to target floaters.rottenborough said:
Hold on. Aren't we supposed to be well past the core vote by now? Last I heard, before May's campaign blew itself up, they were pushing to take seats in the North East.TudorRose said:
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.TheScreamingEagles said:Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
0 -
They've had it from day one of this campaign. It's as if they called the election themselves: it seemed to take the Tories more by surprise then Labour, judging by the respecxtive quality of their campaigns.Jonathan said:Is it fair to say that today Labour have momentum?
(which will no doubt please Momentum)0 -
Perhaps part of the problem is this campaign will be 7 weeks. Most incumbent PMs try to keep it as short as possible.kjohnw said:
I'm beginning to fear the worst, the election is running away from the tories, They haven't once mentioned a strong economy, low taxes and unemployment, strong defence and security, and the UNS of a clear and determined Brexit. Instead all we are hearing is fox hunting, social care costs, hammering the pensioners and grammar schools etc. etc. Who is advising the tory campaign, this is beyond dire, if they still manage to scrape a win it will be a miracle. The vox pops are not sounding good, shes become like bread that has turned mouldy, no longer fresh and appealing. Whereas Corbyn is looking like a Chocolate Fudge Cake, sweet and gooey and appealing, but guaranteed to make you sick once consumed in full.SeanT said:
Despite my gusset-wetting, I still think you're right: TMay will get some sort of majority.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's fun to watch.JohnO said:Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.
However I wonder if it could be really really tiny, and what that will do to her. If it's sub-50, she is in trouble. If it's under 20, she resigns?0 -
Yep. I mean maybe I'm not seeing them on Facebook, but where are the adverts with tax bombshells on them? Brown spent years trying to avoid those at every election. Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?kjohnw said:
I'm beginning to fear the worst, the election is running away from the tories, They haven't once mentioned a strong economy, low taxes and unemployment, strong defence and security, and the UNS of a clear and determined Brexit. Instead all we are hearing is fox hunting, social care costs, hammering the pensioners and grammar schools etc. etc. Who is advising the tory campaign, this is beyond dire, if they still manage to scrape a win it will be a miracle. The vox pops are not sounding good, shes become like bread that has turned mouldy, no longer fresh and appealing. Whereas Corbyn is looking like a Chocolate Fudge Cake, sweet and gooey and appealing, but guaranteed to make you sick once consumed in full.SeanT said:
Despite my gusset-wetting, I still think you're right: TMay will get some sort of majority.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's fun to watch.JohnO said:Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.
However I wonder if it could be really really tiny, and what that will do to her. If it's sub-50, she is in trouble. If it's under 20, she resigns?0 -
Local newspaper has the latest betting odds for Ceredigion
1/4 Lib Dems
4/1 Plaid
16/1 Conservatives
Between 100/1 and 150/1 Labour, Greens, UKiP0 -
Polling suggests that other parts of the country are moving very differently to London. The Tories were 5% behind in London, even with 20% leads overall.SeanT said:
It doesn't matter, it's the swing which counts. People who were considering the Tories are now heavily Labour.The_Apocalypse said:
ExactlyAlsoIndigo said:Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.
Londoners are humans just like everyone else in Britain, they aren't a different species.
We can expect this pattern to be repeated across the country, to a greater or lesser extent. The only place where it won't apply is Scotland and NI, where the campaign is entirely different.0 -
Do they have a view on Richmond Park?calum said:QMUL write up - Hendon 7/1 with BetFair !!
--- Croydon Central from Conservative to Labour
--- Hendon from Conservative to Labour
--- Kingston and Surbiton from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
--- Twickenham from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
http://www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/items/hss/198136.html0 -
Outgunned by Britain's Got Talent. If only Leanne Wood had possessed the wisdom and foresight to deliver her opening remarks whilst balancing a beach ball on her nose or something.MikeL said:BBC Debate got 3.51m - bang in line with expectations. But of course many more would have seen clips on news etc. Last night's ratings (will post the lot for context / general interest):
18:00: BBC News at Six - 4.15m (31.5%)
18:30: BBC Regional News - 4.58m (32.1%)
19:00: The One Show - 2.64m (17.3%)
19:30: BBC Election Debate - 3.51m (17.8%)
21:00: The Met: Policing London - 3.42m (16.2%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 4.53m (27.0%)
18:00: ITV Regional News - 2.92m (22.5%)
18:25: Party Election Broadcast - 2.70m (19.5%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.85m (20.0%)
19:00: Emmerdale - 5.43m (35.6%)
19:30: Britain's Got Talent - 7.16m (36.4%)
* peak - 8.38m (38.1%) at 20:50
21:05: Coronation Street - 7.60m (35.3%)
21:35: Britain's Got Talent Results - 6.11m (29.1%)
* peak - 7.03m (33.0%) at 21:55
22:05: ITV News at Ten - 2.24m (14.1%)0 -
60 billion? He's planning to nationalise everything in sight, free tuition fees, cancel student debt, increase spending all over the place, etc etc etc. Spending commitments for 20/30bn are getting tossed around like sweeties.rottenborough said:
Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?
More like 300bn right there.
0 -
Hendon to go Labour, pull the other one!!rcs1000 said:
Do they have a view on Richmond Park?calum said:QMUL write up - Hendon 7/1 with BetFair !!
--- Croydon Central from Conservative to Labour
--- Hendon from Conservative to Labour
--- Kingston and Surbiton from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
--- Twickenham from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
http://www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/items/hss/198136.html0 -
Brexit is a process by which the virus of Euroscepticism that infected the British right in the late 80s is finally sweated out.rcs1000 said:I've always said that Brexit should be seen as a process, rather than a single one off date, with us slowly disengaging ourselves over time. Otherwise you run the risk of a Brexit recession, on the back of people deferring investment decisions as the future is unclear. And a serious Brexit recession (which given our savings rate is at multi-decade lows is a very real possibility) would poison British politics for a generation.
0
