It's not like the polling we see though is it? They have decades of experience in canvassing and polling etc. Both parties know where they are right now and campaign accordingly
I don't know, but I'm sure there's been cases where party's private polling is said afterward to be wrong (SNP polling saying they'd win IndyRef perhaps? I don't recall). Seems like a non-voter surge, if that is happening, or young people actually turning out despite being out of character for many elections now, would be hard to be picked up. If they were so great, no one would be surprised at results.
They will already have polled and canvassed extensively on where the surge is coming from, if it's real and how much danger it is. Corbyn going last night was shit or bust. It's that transparent.
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
Initially. I suspect some will file it away from another day, hoping that next time they have a leader who won't need to panic the bedwetters in order to win.
I just want to say that @AlastairMeeks's comments - such as the one below - and his headers have been really outstanding.
"1) No Brexit isn't an option. The people have spoken, the bastards. It has to be implemented. Hell mend them.
2) That means honouring the spirit of the decision as well as the letter. The vote was won on an impulse to keep out foreigners. Brexit must be implemented in such a way that allows the government to control freedom of movement. That means leaving the single market. A car crash beckons.
3) This is going to be an economic but more importantly social disaster for Britain. The country is becoming inward-looking and irrelevant, with little sense of social cohesion.
4) To date, Brexit has been a Conservative project throughout, driven by the hard right and with the government using inflammatory language to rally the newspapers. It is utterly disgusting.
5) I am equally appalled by Jeremy Corbyn, who is a dishonest and treacherous cretin. I find the idea of voting for him as incomprehensible as the idea of voting for Donald Trump.
6) So we have two different sets of kooks with two different backward-looking la-la-land visions, both utterly destructive of Britain's interests. We are in Alien vs Predator territory.
7) If anything is to be salvaged from this disaster, it is by giving a voice to as many different interests as possible in the coming negotiations. That can only be achieved through a hung Parliament. Whatever comes next will at least be something that the entire country can feel some allegiance to.
8) The result is still likely to be pretty disastrous (and we'll still probably get car crash Brexit). But Britain can start to rebuild out of that forced consensus instead of wasting many years seeking to implement an impossible reactionary phantasm."
@christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.
Damage limitation. She clearly feels that major public events = disaster for her, so she's avoiding them like the plague.
She must hope that she can get through QT special relatively unscathed, as Corbyn is likely to do well in that setting.
Woman's Hour is not a "major public event". It's a pretty standard interview. An interview Corbyn cocked up, but hardly an horrific minefield from which few escape alive.
May just doesn't like the basics of campaigning. She's risk averse to the point of total paralysis, and ironically that's what's doing for her because it's totally out of keeping with "strong and stable".
To TMay any public event is a major one.
TMay is probably even more freaked out about doing it because the demographic which tunes into Women's Hour are older women, who tend to vote Tory. She doesn't want to risk upsetting them even more.
I agree that May doesn't like campaigning at all. Why she called an GE then, is beyond me. She probably thought that the Tory lead was so high she could get away with limited campaigning. Perhaps, if the manifesto hadn't been such a disaster that *could* have worked. But ceding the airwaves to Corbyn was a dreadful mistake. The Tory Manifesto needed some positives in it to allow the Conservatives to have some control of the narrative, and get some kind of hearing on the airwaves.
The Right Wing Press don't think they owe TMay anything. Dacre and co. feel they are the ones in control and dictate the terms.
I agree with this. It could be she knew she isn't cut out for a GE campaign and so went now because the lead over Labour was (was) mahoosive and she thought even if the campaign didn't sparkle she'd still get away with a big majority and five years as PM until 2022. But the manifesto was a disaster and the Leader of the Opposition and his party's manifesto have taken the initiative to a degree beyond probably even his wildest dreams.
If the Tories just had 1 or 2 decent policies that sold well on the doorstep and ran a positive campaign they'd be miles ahead, perhaps still 20%, and May would just have to stay at home with her feet up throughout.
England were strolling. Hales' wicket gives Bangladesh a sniff...
I used to be a cricket obsessive a few years ago but all the characters / eccentrics seem to have disappeared from the game, and that includes umpires as well as players. I find it all very robotic these days.
Oh my dear sir, come and join us in Northants for the local league. There is a rich field of characters (as an umpire, I cannot say eccentrics!)
This one Is REALLY obvious in hindsight but given her type 1 diabetes and the fact an election campaign is incredibly intense if you're a party leader why on earth go for such a long campaign ?
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
I thought she looked ill yesterday when she was at a factory. Someone suggested that she may have missed an insulin shot, as this can make you look pale and sweaty. If so, she deserves a good deal of sympathy.
All people have good days and bad days.
The media narrative has been created to show her as having a failing campaign. Whether that is true or not each person has to decide. I cannot believe people cannot see all of this for what it is and that is a story telling exercise by the media.
I think the public at large are extremely gullible, Corbyn has no chance. Instead of focusing on the issues that matter the media just prattle on about wobbles as they always do in GE campaigns.
It does not matter whether it is Tories or Labour they always present it in the same way. I would rather they focus on how all these policies are going to be paid for and what sort of future we might have. But it will never change, I suppose it is the only way they know how to present campaigns.
Damn. Did we all think exactly the same thought at the same time? :-)
I posted this at 1:08
Is she having a breakdown? @LOS_Fisher: Theresa May's "people can have faith in me because I have faith in them" line... makes no sense...?
Sorry missed that Scott. But it does seem today is the day we seriously start asking that question. I simply cannot believe that her actions over the last few weeks (even accepting the idiotic misspelling of the manifesto) are those of a senior politician in good health.
I think the psychology of it is this: May doesn't like giving clear answers to anyone on anything until she has fully made up her mind, confident of the detail, and is ready to reveal it.
That explains both her soundbite verbal answers and the vagueness of the written manifesto.
Trouble is: it makes her look evasive and sometimes the conclusions she eventually reaches are not quite right, because she's only tested them with herself and her inner circle.
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
I think she is wounded perhaps fatally. If any party smells weakness in leaders it is the Conservative Party and many will have noticed the shockingly bad run campaign and key moments. Of course a 100 plus seat majority would calm some fears but it won't have gone unnoticed, they will probably think with a better run campaign they could have had a bigger majority.
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
Gone, but not forgotten.
Her card is marked.
All Campaigns have wobbles, Blair, Thatcher et al. It does little to change the result. Google the various years of election with wobble and you will see. Assuming May wins the wobble will be forgotten just as they always have been.
I thought she looked ill yesterday when she was at a factory. Someone suggested that she may have missed an insulin shot, as this can make you look pale and sweaty. If so, she deserves a good deal of sympathy.
I think the public at large are extremely gullible, Corbyn has no chance.
The first might be true, but if it is, then the second might not be true. A tory leaflet in front of me says he has a chance. The media narrative says he has had by far the better campaign. The polls say he has surged hugely.
I don't believe he will win, but if the public are gullible, then responding to what they've seen and been told, he could pick up a lot of votes he otherwise wouldn't have. It's not even about him winning, it's about whether the Tories get a decent sized win, and if Labour and Corbyn hold up very well.
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
Yes. Political parties are tribes, once the seas look calm they will decide they never had any doubts and they are all best friends really.. followed by the ceremonial hunt for a scapegoat. The pollsters will get the blame for ballsing up the turnout filters (again) and the media will get the blame for whipping up a storm in a teacup.
I thought she looked ill yesterday when she was at a factory. Someone suggested that she may have missed an insulin shot, as this can make you look pale and sweaty. If so, she deserves a good deal of sympathy.
It does not matter whether it is Tories or Labour they always present it in the same way. I would rather they focus on how all these policies are going to be paid for and what sort of future we might have. But it will never change, I suppose it is the only way they know how to present campaigns.
I thought she looked ill yesterday when she was at a factory. Someone suggested that she may have missed an insulin shot, as this can make you look pale and sweaty. If so, she deserves a good deal of sympathy.
I think the public at large are extremely gullible, Corbyn has no chance.
The first might be true, but if it is, then the second might not be true. A tory leaflet in front of me says he has a chance. The media narrative says he has had by far the better campaign. The polls say he has surged hugely.
I don't believe he will win, but if the public are gullible, then responding to what they've seen and been told, he could pick up a lot of votes he otherwise wouldn't have. It's not even about him winning, it's about whether the Tories get a decent sized win, and if Labour and Corbyn hold up very well.
Its in the Tories interests to have a story about a big Labour surge. It will galvanise their activists and get out their vote, and has a chance of making Labour voters complacent, and lefties lukewarm about Corbyn happier to stay at home or vote for a fringe party.
The only reason I can see why they are not putting her out there on that platform is that the polling data they have is good and she has everything to lose and nothing to gain this close to the election if she did.
IIRC Messina and Textor tweeted last night kind of rubbishing the YouGov poll, I would assume they have their own data which says something different.
Is the same presenter doing the interview? If so that would explain it.....she was very good against Corbyn.
I thought she looked ill yesterday when she was at a factory. Someone suggested that she may have missed an insulin shot, as this can make you look pale and sweaty. If so, she deserves a good deal of sympathy.
I have controlled diabetes type 2 and can get very tired from time to time. Theresa is insulin dependant and is following a punishing schedule. She may just be struggling but is unlikely to admit it.
Also she may just be at a campaign rally in the North and cannot get to the studios unless she cancels her visit which she would not do
There is usually an explanation but the press love to jump to conclusions ie 'frit'
@christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.
Damage limitation. She clearly feels that major public events = disaster for her, so she's avoiding them like the plague.
She must hope that she can get through QT special relatively unscathed, as Corbyn is likely to do well in that setting.
Can she get any more pathetic? I wonder if she really does have some kind of nervous condition that makes it impossible for het to deal with scrutiny.
This election has clearly knocked her confidence, but then one wonders how confident she was to begin with. There was a narrative pre-GE that she appeared in public less than Cameron because she was simply a different kind of leader. I think it's quite clear now that it's because she knew she did not have his communicative skills. We have a leader who with her confident seemingly shot and whose spell on the media has been broken in a GE of all times, will shortly have to negotiate with Brussels. It's a scenario totally set up for failure. Especially given that with the grammar schools emphasis in her re-launch speech, she's clearly not stopped listening to Timothy.
If she does have a nervous condition I have to wonder why she ran for the leadership, knowing what it entails. I suffer from generalised anxiety, and I try to avoid very high-stress situations because of my condition.
But yet I was a Conservative PPC back in 2005, Theresa visited our constituencies and went through a Labour demonstration like a knife through butter.
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
Gone, but not forgotten.
Her card is marked.
All Campaigns have wobbles, Blair, Thatcher et al. It does little to change the result. Google the various years of election with wobble and you will see. Assuming May wins the wobble will be forgotten just as they always have been.
Of course
People like stories to embroider events. I think that is why so many keep faith in the religion of polls, especially those too clever to believe in God
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
Yes. Political parties are tribes, once the seas look calm they will decide they never had any doubts and they are all best friends really.. followed by the ceremonial hunt for a scapegoat. The pollsters will get the blame for ballsing up the turnout filters (again) and the media will get the blame for whipping up a storm in a teacup.
Sure, if she does that well she'll get another honeymoon and the members will fall quiet. But it won't last and when her midterm starts the Tory party won't have forgotten. At the very least it will make her more vulnerable when the inevitable trouble comes.
ConHome asked its Tory members to score their own side's campaign from 1 to 10 and about a third of respondents responded 1, 2 or 3. The most common score was 5. Details (and a shedload of comments from unhappy Tories) on ConHome.
I thought she looked ill yesterday when she was at a factory. Someone suggested that she may have missed an insulin shot, as this can make you look pale and sweaty. If so, she deserves a good deal of sympathy.
I think the public at large are extremely gullible, Corbyn has no chance.
The first might be true, but if it is, then the second might not be true. A tory leaflet in front of me says he has a chance. The media narrative says he has had by far the better campaign. The polls say he has surged hugely.
I don't believe he will win, but if the public are gullible, then responding to what they've seen and been told, he could pick up a lot of votes he otherwise wouldn't have. It's not even about him winning, it's about whether the Tories get a decent sized win, and if Labour and Corbyn hold up very well.
Its in the Tories interests to have a story about a big Labour surge. It will galvanise their activists and get out their vote, and has a chance of making Labour voters complacent, and lefties lukewarm about Corbyn happier to stay at home or vote for a fringe party.
It was in their interests to have a story about some level of surge perhaps - this much of one feels counterproductive. It's worked on me, to a degree (I was voting Tory or LD anyway), but I feel like some people caught up in a Tory surge, vote for the winner, sort of attitude will be lost, others will lose enthusiasm, and Labour's vote will have solidified a lot more than it might due to how well the surge seemed, when to get a truly big majority the Tories would have wanted many Lab to switch or stay home. But the anti-corbyn Lab are all, it seems, returning home, saving dozens of MPs.
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
Yes. Political parties are tribes, once the seas look calm they will decide they never had any doubts and they are all best friends really.. followed by the ceremonial hunt for a scapegoat. The pollsters will get the blame for ballsing up the turnout filters (again) and the media will get the blame for whipping up a storm in a teacup.
Sure, if she does that well she'll get another honeymoon and the members will fall quiet. But it won't last and when her midterm starts the Tory party won't have forgotten. At the very least it will make her more vulnerable when the inevitable trouble comes.
ConHome asked its Tory members to score their own side's campaign from 1 to 10 and about a third of respondents responded 1, 2 or 3. The most common score was 5. Details (and a shedload of comments from unhappy Tories) on ConHome.
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
Yes. Political parties are tribes, once the seas look calm they will decide they never had any doubts and they are all best friends really.. followed by the ceremonial hunt for a scapegoat. The pollsters will get the blame for ballsing up the turnout filters (again) and the media will get the blame for whipping up a storm in a teacup.
Sure, if she does that well she'll get another honeymoon and the members will fall quiet. But it won't last and when her midterm starts the Tory party won't have forgotten. At the very least it will make her more vulnerable when the inevitable trouble comes.
ConHome asked its Tory members to score their own side's campaign from 1 to 10 and about a third of respondents responded 1, 2 or 3. The most common score was 5. Details (and a shedload of comments from unhappy Tories) on ConHome.
Score based entirely on polling. Ask them again if she gets a landslide and it will be 7 8 9.
@christopherhope: BREAKING Theresa May has refused to appear on @BBCRadio4's Woman's Hour tomorrow morning. She is sending Justine Greening.
Damage limitation. She clearly feels that major public events = disaster for her, so she's avoiding them like the plague.
She must hope that she can get through QT special relatively unscathed, as Corbyn is likely to do well in that setting.
Can she get any more pathetic? I wonder if she really does have some kind of nervous condition that makes it impossible for het to deal with scrutiny.
This election has clearly knocked her confidence, but then one wonders how confident she was to begin with. There was a narrative pre-GE that she appeared in public less than Cameron because she was simply a different kind of leader. I think it's quite clear now that it's because she knew she did not have his communicative skills. We have a leader who with her confident seemingly shot and whose spell on the media has been broken in a GE of all times, will shortly have to negotiate with Brussels. It's a scenario totally set up for failure. Especially given that with the grammar schools emphasis in her re-launch speech, she's clearly not stopped listening to Timothy.
If she does have a nervous condition I have to wonder why she ran for the leadership, knowing what it entails. I suffer from generalised anxiety, and I try to avoid very high-stress situations because of my condition.
But yet I was a Conservative PPC back in 2005, Theresa visited our constituencies and went through a Labour demonstration like a knife through butter.
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
Yes. Political parties are tribes, once the seas look calm they will decide they never had any doubts and they are all best friends really.. followed by the ceremonial hunt for a scapegoat. The pollsters will get the blame for ballsing up the turnout filters (again) and the media will get the blame for whipping up a storm in a teacup.
Sure, if she does that well she'll get another honeymoon and the members will fall quiet. But it won't last and when her midterm starts the Tory party won't have forgotten. At the very least it will make her more vulnerable when the inevitable trouble comes.
ConHome asked its Tory members to score their own side's campaign from 1 to 10 and about a third of respondents responded 1, 2 or 3. The most common score was 5. Details (and a shedload of comments from unhappy Tories) on ConHome.
If she gets a majority of 100 and they ask the same in a months time those same people will decide in retrospect that it actually was a fantastic campaign and the scores will all be 8's and 9's. People (and especially politicians) have a vast capacity for self delusion if it means they have claim to have been on the right side, and made the right decisions.
Calm down, dears. Even if she ends up with the lowest of the current poll ratings (YouGov), Theresa May will still get a vote share similar to Blair in 1997 or Thatcher in 1983.
From the comments here, you'd think she was set to poll 20%.
And, wasn't the criticism a few days ago that the campaign was too centered on her personally? A fair criticism, I thought. So it's not unreasonable that the campaign managers are making more use of her colleagues.
Tell May to do women's hour, please. The media spin afterwards will be awful if she does not go. The public will think hmmm "she wants to negeotiate Brexit and she can't handle a radio interview"? She can kiss good-bye to winning over nothern labour voters.
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
No. Because it shows up some serious weaknesses in May which are going to affect how she manages the government.
The curtain has been pulled back and we haven't generally liked what we've seen as much as some of us thought we did.
By contrast Corbyn has enhanced his reputation as an effective campaigner.
Incidentally, the reason the Tories have made no headway with Corbyn's associations is because they have made it an issue about the past. They should have made it about the present and his judgment now, when faced with an even more murderous terrorist threat.
If say Mrs May had been consistently friendly with the BNP and David Irving and the Klu Klux Klan, inviting them to Parliament and going on foreign visits paid for by them etc, then of course Labour would be doing exactly what the Tories are doing to Corbyn. And they'd be right to do so - even those groups were now non-existent and not really posing a threat - because it would tell us a great deal about her judgment and about how she might handle threats from other equally repellent and violent individuals/groups now.
What Corbyn has said and done over his entire career tells me something very important about his political and moral instincts and judgment, something which I really do not like at all and which I think will be a risk to Britain and to me and mine.
I find it depressing that the government and the other parties and indeed Labour MPs themselves have been so pathetic about making this point.
And, as a result, we may end up in a week having as PM a man who has consciously and consistently sided with every opponent of liberal democracy and the West he could find. I find this an extremely depressing prospect.
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
Yes. Political parties are tribes, once the seas look calm they will decide they never had any doubts and they are all best friends really.. followed by the ceremonial hunt for a scapegoat. The pollsters will get the blame for ballsing up the turnout filters (again) and the media will get the blame for whipping up a storm in a teacup.
Sure, if she does that well she'll get another honeymoon and the members will fall quiet. But it won't last and when her midterm starts the Tory party won't have forgotten. At the very least it will make her more vulnerable when the inevitable trouble comes.
ConHome asked its Tory members to score their own side's campaign from 1 to 10 and about a third of respondents responded 1, 2 or 3. The most common score was 5. Details (and a shedload of comments from unhappy Tories) on ConHome.
If she gets a majority of 100 and they ask the same in a months time those same people will decide in retrospect that it actually was a fantastic campaign and the scores will all be 8's and 9's. People (and especially politicians) have a vast capacity for self delusion if it means they have claim to have been on the right side, and made the right decisions.
So shrewd to miss the debates and Womans Hours, I always said so!
Calm down, dears. Even if she ends up with the lowest of the current poll ratings (YouGov), Theresa May will still get a vote share similar to Blair in 1997 or Thatcher in 1983.
From the comments here, you'd think she was set to poll 20%.
Calm down, dears. Even if she ends up with the lowest of the current poll ratings (YouGov), Theresa May will still get a vote share similar to Blair in 1997 or Thatcher in 1983.
From the comments here, you'd think she was set to poll 20%.
Hysteria is more fun.
Thread headers that point out the truth are forbidden. It's the entertainment game
I thought she looked ill yesterday when she was at a factory. Someone suggested that she may have missed an insulin shot, as this can make you look pale and sweaty. If so, she deserves a good deal of sympathy.
I think the public at large are extremely gullible, Corbyn has no chance.
The first might be true, but if it is, then the second might not be true. A tory leaflet in front of me says he has a chance. The media narrative says he has had by far the better campaign. The polls say he has surged hugely.
I don't believe he will win, but if the public are gullible, then responding to what they've seen and been told, he could pick up a lot of votes he otherwise wouldn't have. It's not even about him winning, it's about whether the Tories get a decent sized win, and if Labour and Corbyn hold up very well.
Its in the Tories interests to have a story about a big Labour surge. It will galvanise their activists and get out their vote, and has a chance of making Labour voters complacent, and lefties lukewarm about Corbyn happier to stay at home or vote for a fringe party.
It was in their interests to have a story about some level of surge perhaps - this much of one feels counterproductive. It's worked on me, to a degree (I was voting Tory or LD anyway), but I feel like some people caught up in a Tory surge, vote for the winner, sort of attitude will be lost, others will lose enthusiasm, and Labour's vote will have solidified a lot more than it might due to how well the surge seemed, when to get a truly big majority the Tories would have wanted many Lab to switch or stay home. But the anti-corbyn Lab are all, it seems, returning home, saving dozens of MPs.
We will see on the night. But it does look like the Labour brand is stronger than many of us on here supposed.
Tell May to do women's hour, please. The media spin afterwards will be awful if she does not go. The public will think hmmm "she wants to negeotiate Brexit and she can't handle a radio interview"? She can kiss good-bye to winning over nothern labour voters.
She must go. Paging CCHQ......
She was never going, the BBC were told that weeks ago, amber Rudd was offered but I guess cos of her father Justin Greening is now doing it.
Tell May to do women's hour, please. The media spin afterwards will be awful if she does not go. The public will think hmmm "she wants to negeotiate Brexit and she can't handle a radio interview"? She can kiss good-bye to winning over nothern labour voters.
She must go. Paging CCHQ......
You saw the comment below that the BBC were told three weeks ago that she would not be doing it. Strange they only just managed to announce it. She is probably not doing it so she has time to mug up for QT tonight, which is understandable.
"Labour's reliance on non-voters Polls which show Labour up also show the party relying heavily on non-voters and voters of other smaller parties Chris Hanretty"
I thought she looked ill yesterday when she was at a factory. Someone suggested that she may have missed an insulin shot, as this can make you look pale and sweaty. If so, she deserves a good deal of sympathy.
I think the public at large are extremely gullible, Corbyn has no chance.
The first might be true, but if it is, then the second might not be true. A tory leaflet in front of me says he has a chance. The media narrative says he has had by far the better campaign. The polls say he has surged hugely.
I don't believe he will win, but if the public are gullible, then responding to what they've seen and been told, he could pick up a lot of votes he otherwise wouldn't have. It's not even about him winning, it's about whether the Tories get a decent sized win, and if Labour and Corbyn hold up very well.
Its in the Tories interests to have a story about a big Labour surge. It will galvanise their activists and get out their vote, and has a chance of making Labour voters complacent, and lefties lukewarm about Corbyn happier to stay at home or vote for a fringe party.
It was in their interests to have a story about some level of surge perhaps - this much of one feels counterproductive. It's worked on me, to a degree (I was voting Tory or LD anyway), but I feel like some people caught up in a Tory surge, vote for the winner, sort of attitude will be lost, others will lose enthusiasm, and Labour's vote will have solidified a lot more than it might due to how well the surge seemed, when to get a truly big majority the Tories would have wanted many Lab to switch or stay home. But the anti-corbyn Lab are all, it seems, returning home, saving dozens of MPs.
We will see on the night. But it does look like the Labour brand is stronger than many of us on here supposed.
I thought it would get them to low 30s if they had a good campaign, a lot more than some predicted, but I'd take that now - though I fear that would still leave Corbyn safely in place.
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
I think she is wounded perhaps fatally. If any party smells weakness in leaders it is the Conservative Party and many will have noticed the shockingly bad run campaign and key moments. Of course a 100 plus seat majority would calm some fears but it won't have gone unnoticed, they will probably think with a better run campaign they could have had a bigger majority.
Further, those with ambitions will obviously conclude that May is not going to want to go through this again, nor will the party want to do so with her in charge. So how long is it going to be before her aspirant successors start jockeying for position, cultivating the backbenchers, going on the chicken circuit, even renting offices and installing phones a la Portillo? All this going on during the Brexit talks is potentially very destabilising.
And if there is bad news around, no-one will want the blame. And what a temptation for someone to make a big issue over a concession within Brexit to curry favour with the members?!
Tell May to do women's hour, please. The media spin afterwards will be awful if she does not go. The public will think hmmm "she wants to negeotiate Brexit and she can't handle a radio interview"? She can kiss good-bye to winning over nothern labour voters.
She must go. Paging CCHQ......
She was never going, the BBC were told that weeks ago, amber Rudd was offered but I guess cos of her father Justin Greening is now doing it.
Things have changed now. The YOUGOV polls COULD be true. They could. We can't risk no overall majority. She would look weak if Corbyn went and she didn't. She should go. It will be spun badly. This is a chance to talk about a policy apart from Brexit and social care.Means testing free scholl lunches for example are popular.
I thought she looked ill yesterday when she was at a factory. Someone suggested that she may have missed an insulin shot, as this can make you look pale and sweaty. If so, she deserves a good deal of sympathy.
I think the public at large are extremely gullible, Corbyn has no chance.
The first might be true, but if it is, then the second might not be true. A tory leaflet in front of me says he has a chance. The media narrative says he has had by far the better campaign. The polls say he has surged hugely.
I don't believe he will win, but if the public are gullible, then responding to what they've seen and been told, he could pick up a lot of votes he otherwise wouldn't have. It's not even about him winning, it's about whether the Tories get a decent sized win, and if Labour and Corbyn hold up very well.
Its in the Tories interests to have a story about a big Labour surge. It will galvanise their activists and get out their vote, and has a chance of making Labour voters complacent, and lefties lukewarm about Corbyn happier to stay at home or vote for a fringe party.
It was in their interests to have a story about some level of surge perhaps - this much of one feels counterproductive. It's worked on me, to a degree (I was voting Tory or LD anyway), but I feel like some people caught up in a Tory surge, vote for the winner, sort of attitude will be lost, others will lose enthusiasm, and Labour's vote will have solidified a lot more than it might due to how well the surge seemed, when to get a truly big majority the Tories would have wanted many Lab to switch or stay home. But the anti-corbyn Lab are all, it seems, returning home, saving dozens of MPs.
We will see on the night. But it does look like the Labour brand is stronger than many of us on here supposed.
I thought it would get them to low 30s if they had a good campaign, a lot more than some predicted, but I'd take that now - though I fear that would still leave Corbyn safely in place.
I confess, I was predicting Labour under Corbyn at mid-20s at best.
Maybe the polling is total bollx and they are actually f-ed. Doesn't look that way this week.
That does seem to be the key here - it'd be incredible if there was such massive shift over the campaign itself (we know from the locals and other examples that Labour were in the doldrums, it was not nonsense), and it comes down to whether things really are different this time or not. It's hard to see it being so different, even if it is a little.
"Labour's reliance on non-voters Polls which show Labour up also show the party relying heavily on non-voters and voters of other smaller parties Chris Hanretty"
Given she has the Question Time set piece that evening, I expect she wants to concentrate on that.
Absolutely correct, I think. If she were to make any kind of mistake on WH it would become the main topic of debate on the much more important QT.
I think the suggestions here that she's ill are way off the mark. Mind you, I think it's too late either way. She's almost certainly lost the election unless she does amazingly well on QT.
Tell May to do women's hour, please. The media spin afterwards will be awful if she does not go. The public will think hmmm "she wants to negeotiate Brexit and she can't handle a radio interview"? She can kiss good-bye to winning over nothern labour voters.
She must go. Paging CCHQ......
She was never going, the BBC were told that weeks ago, amber Rudd was offered but I guess cos of her father Justin Greening is now doing it.
and why not? We need to see more of the Cabinet explaining themselves.
After all they may be making a lot of decisions in next couple of years.
Given she has the Question Time set piece that evening, I expect she wants to concentrate on that.
Absolutely correct, I think. If she were to make any kind of mistake on WH it would become the main topic of debate on the much more important QT.
I think the suggestions here that she's ill are way off the mark. Mind you, I think it's too late either way. She's almost certainly lost the election unless she does amazingly well on QT.
Tell May to do women's hour, please. The media spin afterwards will be awful if she does not go. The public will think hmmm "she wants to negeotiate Brexit and she can't handle a radio interview"? She can kiss good-bye to winning over nothern labour voters.
She must go. Paging CCHQ......
She was never going, the BBC were told that weeks ago, amber Rudd was offered but I guess cos of her father Justin Greening is now doing it.
Things have changed now. The YOUGOV polls COULD be true. They could. We can't risk no overall majority. She would look weak if Corbyn went and she didn't. She should go. It will be spun badly. This is a chance to talk about a policy apart from Brexit and social care.Means testing free scholl lunches for example are popular.
It's that urine smell again. She can see the canvaasing returns, and the internal party polling, her view on how its going might therefore be rather different to yours. Its much more important not to screw the pooch on QT tonight by being properly prepared.
Here's the thing. In 2015 all the polls suggested a Labour win or at least the biggest party in a hung parliament. But on the doorsteps at thins point in the election it didn't feel that way. There wasn't momentum, Milliband seemed barely in control of his mouth, Cameron was his usual Etonian ball of confidence. And the mood on the doors seemed to match that even if the polls disagreed.
In 2017 the mood feels very different out there. The Tory brand is toxic again, the Tory leader appears to resemble a jelly, its the Tories being laughed off the stage on TV not Labour. People seems to be not only saying "I'm voting Labour" but "my friends/family all are as well". And the usual tidal wave enthusiasm from Tory till they die voters doesn't appear to be there either.
Even now I would still be surprised if the Tories didn't win a majority. Because transformational turnarounds in the polls don't happen in British politics. Then again Sky Bet gave me 6/1 on Brexit at 9:30pm on referendum day and we know how that ended. I'm at a conference next Thursday evening with a busy day ahead on the Friday. So I'm going to watch the exit poll then go to bed and get up nice and early on Friday. May having already resigned at that point won't surprise me one little bit.
The election is Labour's to lose. May has already lost. Even if re-elected she is politically finished.
The ES is the main newspaper in a Labour city. It knows which way its bread is buttered. But it's also s freebie, and now no longer any more a respected organ than the Metro etc.
Given she has the Question Time set piece that evening, I expect she wants to concentrate on that.
Absolutely correct, I think. If she were to make any kind of mistake on WH it would become the main topic of debate on the much more important QT.
I think the suggestions here that she's ill are way off the mark. Mind you, I think it's too late either way. She's almost certainly lost the election unless she does amazingly well on QT.
WTF ? She has polling in the mid 40's, as good as Thatcher or Blair in 97, this is obviously some new definition of the term "lost" we had not encountered before.
Isn't it true that all the really bad polling news for the Tories - nationally, London and Wales - comes from YouGov? Elsewhere there's a broad 8-12 per cent lead. So the question is, will the YouGov figures help lead a genuine Labour surge (fake it 'til you make it) or prompt a super high turnout among terrified older Tories? YouGov as a company is driving the whole election narrative, but what's the ending?
Suppose ICM are closer to calling this right than YouGov and May still ends up with a 100+ seat majority. Will the wobbles of the election campaign be forgotten in the euphoria of making dozens of gains?
I think she is wounded perhaps fatally. If any party smells weakness in leaders it is the Conservative Party and many will have noticed the shockingly bad run campaign and key moments. Of course a 100 plus seat majority would calm some fears but it won't have gone unnoticed, they will probably think with a better run campaign they could have had a bigger majority.
Further, those with ambitions will obviously conclude that May is not going to want to go through this again, nor will the party want to do so with her in charge. So how long is it going to be before her aspirant successors start jockeying for position, cultivating the backbenchers, going on the chicken circuit, even renting offices and installing phones a la Portillo? All this going on during the Brexit talks is potentially very destabilising.
So, she wins the GE but will be replaced where as Corbyn will be defeated but stays as Labour leader. The election seems to addle the chattering classes brains! Maybe the Tories should just panic! They could be stuck with May for a decade yet!
"Labour's reliance on non-voters Polls which show Labour up also show the party relying heavily on non-voters and voters of other smaller parties Chris Hanretty"
Just saw a report on ITV Wales which said the battle is between labour and conservatives with each hoping to gain a seat or two. However there has been a big increase in the young vote but the problem is getting them out too vote
She will probably be so weak as to have a 100 majority next week. She will have got that either because she is in fact not weak, or because your man is spectacularly shite, which one do you think it is ?
I just did a quick check and with a bit of a search I found that
IPSOS estimated that 43% of 18-24 actually voted in 2015
if you compare that to some of the recent surveys
Kantar (25th to 30th giving 43con to 33lab) had for the same group 23% would definately vote and 13% would probably vote
ICM (26th to 29th giving 45con to 33lab) had for the same group 44% would definately vote (10/10)
YouGov (30th/31st giving 42con to 39lab) had for the same group 62% certain to vote (10/10)
Survation (26th/27th giving 43con to 37lab) had for the same group 81.2% certain to vote (10/10)
are yougov and others really saying that the 18-24s are going to vote in significantly higher numbers than they have before when ICM and others are not?
She will probably be so weak as to have a 100 majority next week. She will have got that either because she is in fact not weak, or because your man is spectacularly shite, which one do you think it is ?
Its the way you tell them BigJohnFreeOwls.
What seats is she going to win to get a majority of that size? I just don't see it.
She will probably be so weak as to have a 100 majority next week. She will have got that either because she is in fact not weak, or because your man is spectacularly shite, which one do you think it is ?
Its the way you tell them BigJohnFreeOwls.
YG should poll on who do you associate with Weak and Wobbly
Thats one Poll TM would do well in.
As regards your 100 majority prediction.
I will give you Evens how much would you like to stake?
Isn't it true that all the really bad polling news for the Tories - nationally, London and Wales - comes from YouGov? Elsewhere there's a broad 8-12 per cent lead. So the question is, will the YouGov figures help lead a genuine Labour surge (fake it 'til you make it) or prompt a super high turnout among terrified older Tories? YouGov as a company is driving the whole election narrative, but what's the ending?
Panelbase and Survation have 6% leads outside your "broad" 8-12% range
She will probably be so weak as to have a 100 majority next week. She will have got that either because she is in fact not weak, or because your man is spectacularly shite, which one do you think it is ?
Its the way you tell them BigJohnFreeOwls.
YG should poll on who do you associate with Weak and Wobbly
Thats one Poll TM would do well in.
As regards your 100 majority prediction.
I will give you Evens how much would you like to stake?
That's not overly generous is it? I'd take a gander at betfair before taking up that offer....
Why do I need to offer evidence for an opinion? Please note my clear use of the words "I think". I'm not asking you to accept my opinions as facts but merely to accept my opinions as being my opinions.
Tell May to do women's hour, please. The media spin afterwards will be awful if she does not go. The public will think hmmm "she wants to negeotiate Brexit and she can't handle a radio interview"? She can kiss good-bye to winning over nothern labour voters.
She must go. Paging CCHQ......
She was never going, the BBC were told that weeks ago, amber Rudd was offered but I guess cos of her father Justin Greening is now doing it.
Is May going to not negotiate on certain days because shes got a hairdressing appointment for that day.
Isn't it true that all the really bad polling news for the Tories - nationally, London and Wales - comes from YouGov? Elsewhere there's a broad 8-12 per cent lead. So the question is, will the YouGov figures help lead a genuine Labour surge (fake it 'til you make it) or prompt a super high turnout among terrified older Tories? YouGov as a company is driving the whole election narrative, but what's the ending?
Panelbase and Survation have 6% leads outside your "broad" 8-12% range
Panelbase is Con +8.
But SurveyMonkey and ORB are Con +6, like Survation.
Don't forget that this is half term week and the polls may not reflect that a lot of people are away. I am canvassing in Northamptonshire and the returns on the ground do not show any major shift. I think most people have made their minds up...
Mailshots from Conservatives, UKIP, Labour, The Greens, LD and BNP!
Job lot!!
It suits your local delivery office, and the posties (who don't really enjoy delivering it, except for the extra money), to hold onto them and then deliver to every house as a batch. Very frustrating if your agent sends in the copy early hoping to see them go out first, but since the parties aren't paying, they have no say over the delivery timetable!
Don't forget that this is half term week and the polls may not reflect that a lot of people are away. I am canvassing in Northamptonshire and the returns on the ground do not show any major shift. I think most people have made their minds up...
Isn't it true that all the really bad polling news for the Tories - nationally, London and Wales - comes from YouGov? Elsewhere there's a broad 8-12 per cent lead. So the question is, will the YouGov figures help lead a genuine Labour surge (fake it 'til you make it) or prompt a super high turnout among terrified older Tories? YouGov as a company is driving the whole election narrative, but what's the ending?
Panelbase and Survation have 6% leads outside your "broad" 8-12% range
Panelbase is Con +8.
But SurveyMonkey and ORB are Con +6, like Survation.
Given she has the Question Time set piece that evening, I expect she wants to concentrate on that.
The answer to her question is, "Because everyone expected a three figure majority, you specifically said you needed a big mandate to get a Brexit deal, and if you come up with something like what Cameron had, your authority is fatally undermined. Now we've built the campaign around you personally rather than the party, so sodding get out there."
I didn't say that I agreed with her logic!
If she is ill at present, she should say so. Quite apart from anything else, for base political reasons it would generate some sympathy for her.
For her as a human being, yes. It would finish off the Tories' chances in the election though. They lose the "we'll be tough negotiators" card and what have they got?
So you expect a company who has navigated this countries opaque planning system to then pump out houses at a loss.
I expect the tax system to be designed in the interests of the nation, not the interests of windfalls for landowners nor to bail out developers who have overpaid for land and are sitting on it to avoid crystallising a loss.
I was trying to get a developer to pay for something round here a few years ago, and at a meeting they said it was "unviable" to do so because their business model required 40% return on capital employed.
40% ffs. £1,000 should turn into £1m every 20 years. Really? I invest £1000 now and it's reasonable to anticipate that in 2057 I will have a billion pounds? Come on.
The ES is the main newspaper in a Labour city. It knows which way its bread is buttered. But it's also s freebie, and now no longer any more a respected organ than the Metro etc.
I'd always viewed it as a commuters paper to read on the train. Something like the South London Press would be more a locals paper ?
She will probably be so weak as to have a 100 majority next week. She will have got that either because she is in fact not weak, or because your man is spectacularly shite, which one do you think it is ?
Its the way you tell them BigJohnFreeOwls.
YG should poll on who do you associate with Weak and Wobbly
Match up these politicians with the desserts they most resemble?
Comments
"1) No Brexit isn't an option. The people have spoken, the bastards. It has to be implemented. Hell mend them.
2) That means honouring the spirit of the decision as well as the letter. The vote was won on an impulse to keep out foreigners. Brexit must be implemented in such a way that allows the government to control freedom of movement. That means leaving the single market. A car crash beckons.
3) This is going to be an economic but more importantly social disaster for Britain. The country is becoming inward-looking and irrelevant, with little sense of social cohesion.
4) To date, Brexit has been a Conservative project throughout, driven by the hard right and with the government using inflammatory language to rally the newspapers. It is utterly disgusting.
5) I am equally appalled by Jeremy Corbyn, who is a dishonest and treacherous cretin. I find the idea of voting for him as incomprehensible as the idea of voting for Donald Trump.
6) So we have two different sets of kooks with two different backward-looking la-la-land visions, both utterly destructive of Britain's interests. We are in Alien vs Predator territory.
7) If anything is to be salvaged from this disaster, it is by giving a voice to as many different interests as possible in the coming negotiations. That can only be achieved through a hung Parliament. Whatever comes next will at least be something that the entire country can feel some allegiance to.
8) The result is still likely to be pretty disastrous (and we'll still probably get car crash Brexit). But Britain can start to rebuild out of that forced consensus instead of wasting many years seeking to implement an impossible reactionary phantasm."
But, once they saw him in action, their opinion would rapidly shift to that of most Labour MPs.
If the Tories just had 1 or 2 decent policies that sold well on the doorstep and ran a positive campaign they'd be miles ahead, perhaps still 20%, and May would just have to stay at home with her feet up throughout.
Her card is marked.
The media narrative has been created to show her as having a failing campaign. Whether that is true or not each person has to decide. I cannot believe people cannot see all of this for what it is and that is a story telling exercise by the media.
I think the public at large are extremely gullible, Corbyn has no chance. Instead of focusing on the issues that matter the media just prattle on about wobbles as they always do in GE campaigns.
It does not matter whether it is Tories or Labour they always present it in the same way. I would rather they focus on how all these policies are going to be paid for and what sort of future we might have. But it will never change, I suppose it is the only way they know how to present campaigns.
That explains both her soundbite verbal answers and the vagueness of the written manifesto.
Trouble is: it makes her look evasive and sometimes the conclusions she eventually reaches are not quite right, because she's only tested them with herself and her inner circle.
I don't believe he will win, but if the public are gullible, then responding to what they've seen and been told, he could pick up a lot of votes he otherwise wouldn't have. It's not even about him winning, it's about whether the Tories get a decent sized win, and if Labour and Corbyn hold up very well.
Also she may just be at a campaign rally in the North and cannot get to the studios unless she cancels her visit which she would not do
There is usually an explanation but the press love to jump to conclusions ie 'frit'
People like stories to embroider events. I think that is why so many keep faith in the religion of polls, especially those too clever to believe in God
ConHome asked its Tory members to score their own side's campaign from 1 to 10 and about a third of respondents responded 1, 2 or 3. The most common score was 5. Details (and a shedload of comments from unhappy Tories) on ConHome.
Calm down, dears. Even if she ends up with the lowest of the current poll ratings (YouGov), Theresa May will still get a vote share similar to Blair in 1997 or Thatcher in 1983.
From the comments here, you'd think she was set to poll 20%.
And, wasn't the criticism a few days ago that the campaign was too centered on her personally? A fair criticism, I thought. So it's not unreasonable that the campaign managers are making more use of her colleagues.
She must go. Paging CCHQ......
The curtain has been pulled back and we haven't generally liked what we've seen as much as some of us thought we did.
By contrast Corbyn has enhanced his reputation as an effective campaigner.
Incidentally, the reason the Tories have made no headway with Corbyn's associations is because they have made it an issue about the past. They should have made it about the present and his judgment now, when faced with an even more murderous terrorist threat.
If say Mrs May had been consistently friendly with the BNP and David Irving and the Klu Klux Klan, inviting them to Parliament and going on foreign visits paid for by them etc, then of course Labour would be doing exactly what the Tories are doing to Corbyn. And they'd be right to do so - even those groups were now non-existent and not really posing a threat - because it would tell us a great deal about her judgment and about how she might handle threats from other equally repellent and violent individuals/groups now.
What Corbyn has said and done over his entire career tells me something very important about his political and moral instincts and judgment, something which I really do not like at all and which I think will be a risk to Britain and to me and mine.
I find it depressing that the government and the other parties and indeed Labour MPs themselves have been so pathetic about making this point.
And, as a result, we may end up in a week having as PM a man who has consciously and consistently sided with every opponent of liberal democracy and the West he could find. I find this an extremely depressing prospect.
How do you know he's your daddy? Cos your mumma told you it was so.
https://twitter.com/stephentall/status/870326419867533312
https://twitter.com/stephentall/status/870326447457660928
https://twitter.com/stephentall/status/870326519243173891
https://twitter.com/stephentall/status/870326613522690049
"Labour's reliance on non-voters
Polls which show Labour up also show the party relying heavily on non-voters and voters of other smaller parties
Chris Hanretty"
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/labours-reliance-on-non-voters-9f88c516310a
And if there is bad news around, no-one will want the blame. And what a temptation for someone to make a big issue over a concession within Brexit to curry favour with the members?!
Perhaps some posters on here could temper their language in future, this is becoming a very unpleasant site for a Lady such as myself.
Maybe the polling is total bollx and they are actually f-ed. Doesn't look that way this week.
Per YouGov if the people who vote this time are simply identical to those who voted in 2015 then Con lead by 8%.
Of course the voters won't be the same but how different will they be - they have to be quite a lot different to get down to a lead of 3% or 4%.
I think the suggestions here that she's ill are way off the mark. Mind you, I think it's too late either way. She's almost certainly lost the election unless she does amazingly well on QT.
After all they may be making a lot of decisions in next couple of years.
Oh wait...
In 2017 the mood feels very different out there. The Tory brand is toxic again, the Tory leader appears to resemble a jelly, its the Tories being laughed off the stage on TV not Labour. People seems to be not only saying "I'm voting Labour" but "my friends/family all are as well". And the usual tidal wave enthusiasm from Tory till they die voters doesn't appear to be there either.
Even now I would still be surprised if the Tories didn't win a majority. Because transformational turnarounds in the polls don't happen in British politics. Then again Sky Bet gave me 6/1 on Brexit at 9:30pm on referendum day and we know how that ended. I'm at a conference next Thursday evening with a busy day ahead on the Friday. So I'm going to watch the exit poll then go to bed and get up nice and early on Friday. May having already resigned at that point won't surprise me one little bit.
The election is Labour's to lose. May has already lost. Even if re-elected she is politically finished.
She needs replacing next week
Mailshots from Conservatives, UKIP, Labour, The Greens, LD and BNP!
Job lot!!
I don't think he would approve
Its the way you tell them BigJohnFreeOwls.
IPSOS estimated that 43% of 18-24 actually voted in 2015
if you compare that to some of the recent surveys
Kantar (25th to 30th giving 43con to 33lab) had for the same group 23% would definately vote and 13% would probably vote
ICM (26th to 29th giving 45con to 33lab) had for the same group 44% would definately vote (10/10)
YouGov (30th/31st giving 42con to 39lab) had for the same group 62% certain to vote (10/10)
Survation (26th/27th giving 43con to 37lab) had for the same group 81.2% certain to vote (10/10)
are yougov and others really saying that the 18-24s are going to vote in significantly higher numbers than they have before when ICM and others are not?
Thats one Poll TM would do well in.
As regards your 100 majority prediction.
I will give you Evens how much would you like to stake?
http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/
I thought she could multi task.
Weak, Wobbly, Coward.
But SurveyMonkey and ORB are Con +6, like Survation.
https://twitter.com/CeredigionRPU/status/870229912040472577
Speeding here !
What are you going to do about foodbanks we have 23
Complex reasons why people use foodbanks blah blah no answer
Im hungry i have no money whats complex about that FFS
Weak Weak Wobbler
Youve cut Police people feel less safe can you reassure them the cuts to police stop now
Blah Blah Crime is different Blah Blah no answer
Weakest PM ever surely cant string 2 words together.
NEW THREAD
I was trying to get a developer to pay for something round here a few years ago, and at a meeting they said it was "unviable" to do so because their business model required 40% return on capital employed.
40% ffs. £1,000 should turn into £1m every 20 years. Really? I invest £1000 now and it's reasonable to anticipate that in 2057 I will have a billion pounds? Come on.
May - blancmange.
Corbyn - rice pudding.
Farron - angel delight.
Nuttall - roast beef.