If she tries that tomorrow on QT, Corbyn mentions private schools and the election is over. How can anyone talk about schools and social mobility in Britain without mentioning the most important division? The Tories back upward mobility for spivs and that's about it. As for downward mobility, why isn't Soamesy washing car windscreens somewhere?
CD13's "We will hit an economic whirlwind when Corbyn takes over and he'll blame it totally on Brexit" seems apt. The whole Brexit narrative has been awful for this country, and Corbyn is absolutely right that "no deal" would mean an appallingly bad deal. So, out the Tories go - they've effed the country up, the rich have made a packet, and someone else will have to clear up after them. Thank goodness Labour has a competent leader.
The complete opposite, May can argue she now backs excellent state schools on a par with the top independent while the likes of Diane Abbott back comprehensive but send their kids private!
If she tries that tomorrow on QT, Corbyn mentions private schools and the election is over. How can anyone talk about schools and social mobility in Britain without mentioning the most important division? The Tories back upward mobility for spivs and that's about it. As for downward mobility, why isn't Soamesy washing car windscreens somewhere?
CD13's "We will hit an economic whirlwind when Corbyn takes over and he'll blame it totally on Brexit" seems apt. The whole Brexit narrative has been awful for this country, and Corbyn is absolutely right that "no deal" would mean an appallingly bad deal. So, out the Tories go - they've effed the country up, the rich have made a packet, and someone else will have to clear up after them. Thank goodness Labour has a competent leader.
The complete opposite, May can argue she now backs excellent state schools on a par with the top independent while the likes of Diane Abbott back comprehensive but send their kids private!
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Exactly
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.
It doesn't matter, it's the swing which counts. People who were considering the Tories are now heavily Labour.
Londoners are humans just like everyone else in Britain, they aren't a different species.
We can expect this pattern to be repeated across the country, to a greater or lesser extent. The only place where it won't apply is Scotland and NI, where the campaign is entirely different.
Sean_F just stated that the Conservatives were only 3 points higher in London at the start of the campaign.
Londoners are not a different species no, but their politics and the rest of the country's politics has increasingly been two very different things. This has been discussed on this site. You can't read some kind of national swing overall into these figures as a result. London home to many of my age group, ethnic minorities like myself, and is liberal and metropolitan. Of course Labour will do there. It's tailor made for Labour to do well there.
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
Which begs the question, do the Tories currently fear losing some of that core vote? Instead of seeking to make gains, are they battling to hold what they've already got?
My current assessment is the Tories are worried about losing seats in London, Bath, and Plymouth.
I don't think they will ever lose the oldies to Corbyn. It's the 35-50 year olds in marginals they are fighting for.
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Given a big enough earthquake, you don't need to fanny about comparing seismograph readings to know you are in trouble. It isn't the polls which are worrying, so much as actual stuff which is actually happening.
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.
How many people voting Labour are still very much for Brexit? The idea that Corbyn would can Brexit would be toxic to Labour north of the Severn-Wash line. And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Corbyn's ineptitude is there for all to see on his approach to Brexit. What is unfathomable is why the Tories haven't put his nuts in a vice over this.
CCHQ, what ARE you doing? Playing candy crush all day?
If Crosby and Messina have absolute control of the campaign (and I sure hope they do), then presumably this grammar school stuff - not something to tickle my fancy - is deemed to resonate with their targeted constituency. And previous polls have confirmed that to be the case.
But I'm mystified why there has been nothing, absolutely nothing, on the economy: that's the antithesis of the 2015 campaign where yet another rendition of that bloody "long term economic plan" would send even the bluest of us into that darkened room. But Blimey O'Reilly it delivered the goods,
Grammars play well with UKIP voters, the key Tory targets this time and most Tories back them too
Isn't the issue that a LVT is - or might be perceived to be - a wealth tax and therefore will be seen as resulting in large tax increases for everyone owning a home?
Any sensible campaign should be putting Labour on the spot about exactly what they mean by this.
"Nobody who owns a home to live in will pay a penny more under this proposal than they currently pay in council tax, and unlike Theresa May's proposals it won't get stolen from them if they're unlucky enough to get the wrong illness, either.
This is about getting people who own hundreds of houses like that ex-teacher in Kent who hates curry, to pay their fair share, about getting developers to make the contribution they should to the roads and schools we need to provide alongside new houses, and about making it more profitable to put the houses up than to sit on planning permissions making a profit by perpetuating our chronic housing shortage".
Went to the local Shop/Spar for some bread and milk and they were talking about the audience from last night's debate. Ribble Valley is very blue though.
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.
How many people voting Labour are still very much for Brexit? The idea that Corbyn would can Brexit would be toxic to Labour north of the Severn-Wash line. And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Corbyn's ineptitude is there for all to see on his approach to Brexit. What is unfathomable is why the Tories haven't put his nuts in a vice over this.
CCHQ, what ARE you doing? Playing candy crush all day?
How is the Bay looking - any word back from Kevin ?
Went to the local Shop/Spar for some bread and milk and they were talking about the audience from last night's debate. Ribble Valley is very blue though.
Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote share
A bit unfair, she gave a good speech on why Britain should stay in the EU that TOPPING linked below. She clearly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)
Fair enough, but her behaviour makes me wonder. If she was a Remainer, why would she want to be a PM who has to be a "Leave" PM? Either she was never a Remainer and was just following Cabinet policy or if she was a Remainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.
It's possible that she genuinely thought that her Home Office EU negotiations could be used as a model for Brexit and didn't appreciate the gravity of the decisions that will need to be made. It's certainly my impression that one of the main factors in pushing her to go for an early election was the realisation that she was going 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.
That is, without doubt, the case. And May has blown her chances of a White Cliffs of Dover, We Shall Never Surrender Brexit by being so useless. The Tories are going to get rid of her sooner rather than later, I imagine. But who takes over who can keep them together?
If May gets a majority over 50 it is Brexit on her terms, indeed only a hung parliament would likely see soft Brexit
Nope - it's Brexit on the EU's terms or no deal at all. Walking away and inflicting immense damage t the UK economy and the living standards of millions of Britons is the one call May has. If she doesn't do that, the EU will decide what happens.
Nope Brexit with continued free movement and 100 billion euros to the EU is no Brexit at all for most Leavers if the EU demands that with no compromise no deal it is until Labour gets back in
Just to add to the general thread immiseration, England seem to be making an effort to give Bangladesh a chance of beating them. 261/2 in the 45th over.
Today's London Poll pretty much replicates an unreleased poll at the time of the Manchester bombing:
" The second instalment in Polling London was conducted immediately prior to the Manchester bombing, and was not released at the time due to the events of that week. We are today also releasing the top line voting figures from that survey, which were almost identical to those above. Headline voting figures were: Con 34, Lab 50, LD 11, UKIP 2, Green 2. Fieldwork for the unreleased poll was conducted between 19-23 May. Total sample size was 1,006 adults. Again, the figures have been weighted and are representative of all London adults (aged 18+). "
A very joyous pro-Labour tone in the site comments. May's "best PM" figures have only dropped slightly, its just that Corbyn has picked up a lot of DK's. Likewise, a Tory 80% chance of winning the GE, is bloody good going in my book. As for YouGov, well lets wait and see.
However, none of this alters the fact that this is the most diabolical Tory campaign in my 70 years on the planet.
Local newspaper has the latest betting odds for Ceredigion 1/4 Lib Dems 4/1 Plaid 16/1 Conservatives Between 100/1 and 150/1 Labour, Greens, UKiP
Cons may be worth a small flutter as both LD and Plaid have gone backwards in Wales.
I think a lot of people vote Liberal in Ceredigion to keep Plaid out. They are not going to jeopardise that by possibly voting Con. However, there are roughly 10k students in Aber, and 2015 was fought in term time, whereas the term ends tomorrow this year. I cant believe many of the students voted Plaid, so given Lib maj is only 3k, less student votes could make it very tight...
Why May is choosing to talk about grammar schools I'll never know though. Don't think it will appeal to the middle age much, it's likely to go down well with older voters mainly. She really needs to stop listening to Timothy. If she hasn't learned by now, she'll never learn.
She needs to spend this last week just talking about the economy and Brexit. She's lucky that narrative of her not going to that debate is behind her/never took off much.
Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
It's fun to watch.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.
Despite my gusset-wetting, I still think you're right: TMay will get some sort of majority.
However I wonder if it could be really really tiny, and what that will do to her. If it's sub-50, she is in trouble. If it's under 20, she resigns?
I'm beginning to fear the worst, the election is running away from the tories, They haven't once mentioned a strong economy, low taxes and unemployment, strong defence and security, and the UNS of a clear and determined Brexit. Instead all we are hearing is fox hunting, social care costs, hammering the pensioners and grammar schools etc. etc. Who is advising the tory campaign, this is beyond dire, if they still manage to scrape a win it will be a miracle. The vox pops are not sounding good, shes become like bread that has turned mouldy, no longer fresh and appealing. Whereas Corbyn is looking like a Chocolate Fudge Cake, sweet and gooey and appealing, but guaranteed to make you sick once consumed in full.
Yep. I mean maybe I'm not seeing them on Facebook, but where are the adverts with tax bombshells on them? Brown spent years trying to avoid those at every election. Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?
Theres one on con facebook page had 595000 likes, which i suppose is something.
Applying the changes GB wide (just for fun) and Baxtering puts Lab 1.6% ahead in the popular vote but Tories with most seats: Con 317, Lab 252, SNP 56, NI 18, LibDem 5. Dare the Tories rule propped up by Ulster Unionists?
Today's London Poll pretty much replicates an unreleased poll at the time of the Manchester bombing:
" The second instalment in Polling London was conducted immediately prior to the Manchester bombing, and was not released at the time due to the events of that week. We are today also releasing the top line voting figures from that survey, which were almost identical to those above. Headline voting figures were: Con 34, Lab 50, LD 11, UKIP 2, Green 2. Fieldwork for the unreleased poll was conducted between 19-23 May. Total sample size was 1,006 adults. Again, the figures have been weighted and are representative of all London adults (aged 18+). "
34% means the Tories are pretty much unchanged in London on 2015
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.
How many people voting Labour are still very much for Brexit? The idea that Corbyn would can Brexit would be toxic to Labour north of the Severn-Wash line. And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Corbyn's ineptitude is there for all to see on his approach to Brexit. What is unfathomable is why the Tories haven't put his nuts in a vice over this.
CCHQ, what ARE you doing? Playing candy crush all day?
Is there anyway you can block yourself from reading certain posts on the site? I would like to block his posts.
Isn't the issue that a LVT is - or might be perceived to be - a wealth tax and therefore will be seen as resulting in large tax increases for everyone owning a home?
Any sensible campaign should be putting Labour on the spot about exactly what they mean by this.
"Nobody who owns a home to live in will pay a penny more under this proposal than they currently pay in council tax'
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.
How many people voting Labour are still very much for Brexit? The idea that Corbyn would can Brexit would be toxic to Labour north of the Severn-Wash line. And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Corbyn's ineptitude is there for all to see on his approach to Brexit. What is unfathomable is why the Tories haven't put his nuts in a vice over this.
CCHQ, what ARE you doing? Playing candy crush all day?
How is the Bay looking - any word back from Kevin ?
Kevin was not worried when I spoke to him a couple of days ago. UKIP is dead (not seen a single poster), LibDems not in favour because of second Referendum. Number of LibDem window posters is well down, especially in the old council estates (of which there are a surprising number in Torbay). Labour a bit more visible - but not unhappy to see their posters in windows!
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.
How many people voting Labour are still very much for Brexit? The idea that Corbyn would can Brexit would be toxic to Labour north of the Severn-Wash line. And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Corbyn's ineptitude is there for all to see on his approach to Brexit. What is unfathomable is why the Tories haven't put his nuts in a vice over this.
CCHQ, what ARE you doing? Playing candy crush all day?
How is the Bay looking - any word back from Kevin ?
Kevin was not worried when I spoke to him a couple of days ago. UKIP is dead (not seen a single poster), LibDems not in favour because of second Referendum. Number of LibDem window posters is well down, especially in the old council estates (of which there are a surprising number in Torbay). Labour a bit more visible - but not unhappy to see their posters in windows!
Corbyn surge definitely helps the Tories around the margins in the Southwest.
Just had S Wales window cleaner doing the office in Valleys.
Spontaneously moaned about possibility of increased corporation tax and higher minimum wage (he's got a team of about half a dozen) - at some length. Said he should vote Conservative but might just go randomly pin on the donkey on the ballot paper for anyone who's not Labour as it didn't matter anyway because he lived in Abertillery.
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Exactly
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.
When the poll comes back showing Labour level in the Midlands is when the PB bowels truly drop.
Labour ahead in the Midlands/Wales subsample on today's YouGov
Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote share
A bit uly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)
Fair enough, mainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.
It's possible t 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.
That is, with over who can keep them together?
If she wins a decent majority - 50+ - she'll survive, if she gets over 80 or 100 everyone will forget her dire campaign (until the next one).
Who wins? Dunno.
.
Of course the EU would offer us Soft Brexit - i.e. EFTA or EEA. We'd have to accept Free Movement, pay some contributions, and we'd have no say over EU laws. It's win-win for them, they get money, uninterrupted trade, and Britain is seen to do worse.
But a British PM would have to sell that to the country. Perhaps Prime Minister Corbyn is the man.
I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)
To be honest, I'd probably take EFTA-EEA now.
It's not like immigration is going to massively come down with an official ending of free movement, anyway, and we'd still have an emergency break.
If it doesn't pan out, split again once we've recalibrated all out trade deals and schedules in 10-15 years time, and people have got fed up of us not having a say in the rules.
If Corbyn wins, or we get a Hung Parliament, expect Bremorse and Bregret to surge, amongst rightwingers. We will probably see polls showing 60/40 Remain/Leave in a year.
The Kippers who vote for him will certainly regret it.
Funny how the 2015 lab>Ukip who were regarded as Red BNP lite are now expected to be voting Corbo and Abbott
Today's London Poll pretty much replicates an unreleased poll at the time of the Manchester bombing:
" The second instalment in Polling London was conducted immediately prior to the Manchester bombing, and was not released at the time due to the events of that week. We are today also releasing the top line voting figures from that survey, which were almost identical to those above. Headline voting figures were: Con 34, Lab 50, LD 11, UKIP 2, Green 2. Fieldwork for the unreleased poll was conducted between 19-23 May. Total sample size was 1,006 adults. Again, the figures have been weighted and are representative of all London adults (aged 18+). "
34% means the Tories are unchanged in London on 2015
While I do think its rubbish there's no doubt that May's appeal over Cameron will be everywhere except London.
Today's London Poll pretty much replicates an unreleased poll at the time of the Manchester bombing:
" The second instalment in Polling London was conducted immediately prior to the Manchester bombing, and was not released at the time due to the events of that week. We are today also releasing the top line voting figures from that survey, which were almost identical to those above. Headline voting figures were: Con 34, Lab 50, LD 11, UKIP 2, Green 2. Fieldwork for the unreleased poll was conducted between 19-23 May. Total sample size was 1,006 adults. Again, the figures have been weighted and are representative of all London adults (aged 18+). "
34% means the Tories are pretty much unchanged in London on 2015
Applying the changes GB wide (just for fun) and Baxtering puts Lab 1.6% ahead in the popular vote but Tories with most seats: Con 317, Lab 252, SNP 56, NI 18, LibDem 5. Dare the Tories rule propped up by Ulster Unionists?
Of course they would, if it meant keeping Corbyn and Sturgeon out of power. It would be their national duty.
The Ulstermen would be happy to oblige as they hate Corbyn (and Sturgeon). But they would demand a price, and it would probably involve a Soft Border Brexit.
Went to the local Shop/Spar for some bread and milk and they were talking about the audience from last night's debate. Ribble Valley is very blue though.
I see it's the most read story on the BBC.
What was the tone of the conversation
Most of them said they didn't think it was at all balanced, a couple thought Rudd had done a decent job against that audience. Then someone mentioned the father story and that person praised Rudd for doing it.
One of the people behind the till countered they thought it was fair and balanced and said May should have been there.
That's what I heard. I was the youngest one there lol, lot of pensioners around here do shopping there that time of day.
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
It's not just YouGov (which I agree, is suspect).
It's every other pollster, which has reported Con leads falling from 18-25% (remember that?) to at best low double figures.
It's the patently obvious wooden campaign performances.
It's not turning up to the debate.
It's the manifesto cock-up
It's *still* campaigning on the wrong issues (the right issues are Brexit, the economy and security).
It's Corbyn looking far better on the campaign trail than he ever does in parliament.
Sure, the Tories *might* still win a majority of eighty but that would still be far less than it should be - and it could be a lot closer.
Applying the changes GB wide (just for fun) and Baxtering puts Lab 1.6% ahead in the popular vote but Tories with most seats: Con 317, Lab 252, SNP 56, NI 18, LibDem 5. Dare the Tories rule propped up by Ulster Unionists?
Of course they would, if it meant keeping Corbyn and Sturgeon out of power. It would be their national duty.
The Ulstermen would be happy to oblige as they hate Corbyn (and Sturgeon). But they would demand a price, and it would probably involve a Soft Border Brexit.
It's odd how so many people are saying May should resign even if she wins an overall majority, and Corbyn should stay even if he loses. Perhaps it's the result itself that should matter, not the result compared to expectations.
Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?
60 billion? He's planning to nationalise everything in sight, free tuition fees, cancel student debt, increase spending all over the place, etc etc etc. Spending commitments for 20/30bn are getting tossed around like sweeties.
I'd thought since this election was called that a great result was for May to reap little or no benefit. Having spotted months ago that May was a horrible perfomer, parity seemed an outside chance for a great result. Especially when the Tory manifesto turned out to be little more than more pain for all except the chosen few.
Corbyn has looked much the better perfomer during the campaign but he's still Corbyn. I'm amazed if he gets traction above 35%. That to me would be a very decent result for him.
If there's a mistake in our assumptions it's around the importance of Brexit as a driver of GE votes and that Kippers are all desperate to vote for the Tories. These assumptions may have both been overplayed. People vote in GE on their personal circumstances. That's why I will vote symbolically for Corbyn's manifesto. And as for Brexit, given neither party is denying the result, maybe people are relaxed that we're out, and I don't believe there was ever huge enthusiasm for hard or nuclear brexit among any but the further reaches of Torydom and Kippery.
So maybe this surge is real, albeit my gut still tells me May will get a majority. I hope she gets a tiny one because I want the Tories to own the chaos of the next 5 years. It's your mess. Clean it up.
Anyway there's my theory. But alternatively It could be the Russians, of course.....
It's odd how so many people are saying May should resign even if she wins an overall majority, and Corbyn should stay even if he loses. Perhaps it's the result itself that should matter, not the result compared to expectations.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
Have we reached peak hypocrisy? She doesn't believe in Brexit!
Question: what does British business want? Surely that will direct the govt's position more than anything else. In which case, how much distance will there really be between the UK and EU positions?
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
This isn't Lynton. If it was, Dave would have banged on about it in 2015.
You should not be running a core vote campaign unless you expect to lose badly.
At this rate, Graham Brady's postbag in the first week will be bulging.
What's been happening on the doorsteps in your patch? Tories in trouble?
No, holding up well. That might be a consequence of (1) Mary Creagh voting against the invocation of A50 after Wakefield voted by more than 2:1 for Leave, and (2) an unpopular Labour council which feathers Castleford's bed with Wakefield's money.
It's odd how so many people are saying May should resign even if she wins an overall majority, and Corbyn should stay even if he loses. Perhaps it's the result itself that should matter, not the result compared to expectations.
Agreed. Well put.
I think we all get carried away by expectations sometimes.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Yes- and your social care too after she fucks off with all of the parents house, half of your house, your kids and half of everything you've ever earned, plus custody of the children and pets.
Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?
60 billion? He's planning to nationalise everything in sight, free tuition fees, cancel student debt, increase spending all over the place, etc etc etc. Spending commitments for 20/30bn are getting tossed around like sweeties.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
Wasn't there a Bob Monkhouse joke about the difference between a house and a home? A home is where they put you when they want you out of the house.
Could Big Jezza actually win this sucker? Surely not??
It's London LOL
Why London is being read into as a test of the national mood is beyond me. Labour always polls well in London, a good London poll for Labour is standard, it's not news.
Plus it's YouGov.
This is as odd as when people were wondering why May and the Tories were campaigning in marginals.
Seeing signs of trouble in things which are the norm.
Frankly who cares. Members and activists are guaranteed votes in the bag, enthusing them can be considered an optional extra. They will be plenty enthusiastic if their side gets a nice majority.
It's odd how so many people are saying May should resign even if she wins an overall majority, and Corbyn should stay even if he loses. Perhaps it's the result itself that should matter, not the result compared to expectations.
what the numbers people are forgetting is in 2015 tories wanted to vote and had policies to vote for while labour didn't have policies or a leader to vote for.
Today is the opposite; tories aren't voting for policies or may but just to stop corbyn and labour voters have a reason to vote.
The 2015 demographics and turnour in wards will not be the same. We will not see tories voting at 85-90% in marginals and labour voting at 45-50%. Labour lost marginals because of turnout.
I can only see 5 gains from the tories in the west midlands. I don't think the tories can win an of the seats in stoke or coventry. Corbyn will get more votes than miliband did in these seats in 2015.
Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?
60 billion? He's planning to nationalise everything in sight, free tuition fees, cancel student debt, increase spending all over the place, etc etc etc. Spending commitments for 20/30bn are getting tossed around like sweeties.
More like 300bn right there.
How much does Trident cost?
According to CND, about £100bn over the next 35 years. According to the Govt, about £75bn over the same period.
The spend isn't equally distributed though, there's a bulge in the early to mid-2020s when the new boats are being built.
I've met a depressing number of voting-age people who are convinced it'll cost £100bn per year.
Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?
60 billion? He's planning to nationalise everything in sight, free tuition fees, cancel student debt, increase spending all over the place, etc etc etc. Spending commitments for 20/30bn are getting tossed around like sweeties.
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
It's not just YouGov (which I agree, is suspect).
It's every other pollster, which has reported Con leads falling from 18-25% (remember that?) to at best low double figures.
It's the patently obvious wooden campaign performances.
It's not turning up to the debate.
It's the manifesto cock-up
It's *still* campaigning on the wrong issues (the right issues are Brexit, the economy and security).
It's Corbyn looking far better on the campaign trail than he ever does in parliament.
Sure, the Tories *might* still win a majority of eighty but that would still be far less than it should be - and it could be a lot closer.
Lot of unhappy Tories judging from the comments, you can add me to the list. A shocking manifesto and campaign, not a Tory manifesto at all and attacking their core vote.
Interesting to see some anger about the Garden Tax not being hammered home by the Conservatives. I wonder why, surely Crosby would have advocated that. But then again how much is Crosby running this campaign? Maybe too many cooks...
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.
How many people voting Labour are still very much for Brexit? The idea that Corbyn would can Brexit would be toxic to Labour north of the Severn-Wash line. And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Corbyn's ineptitude is there for all to see on his approach to Brexit. What is unfathomable is why the Tories haven't put his nuts in a vice over this.
CCHQ, what ARE you doing? Playing candy crush all day?
How is the Bay looking - any word back from Kevin ?
Kevin was not worried when I spoke to him a couple of days ago. UKIP is dead (not seen a single poster), LibDems not in favour because of second Referendum. Number of LibDem window posters is well down, especially in the old council estates (of which there are a surprising number in Torbay). Labour a bit more visible - but not unhappy to see their posters in windows!
Corbyn surge definitely helps the Tories around the margins in the Southwest.
But maybe not in Plymouth.... Depends where the Kippers go - home to Labour, on to the Tories?
What happened to the idea, so often aggressively and sometimes pompously punted on here by the likes of Richard N etc that 650 seats under FPP favoured Labour?? It nows seems that a PV vote lead still isn't enough to give Labour most seats.
Nor do we hear from the PB Tories that 650 seats should be cut to 600, as we used to do, endlessly. Presumably as the system now favours the Tories (why and how has it changed?) the PB Tories are perfectly happy with the status quo?
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
This isn't Lynton. If it was, Dave would have banged on about it in 2015.
You should not be running a core vote campaign unless you expect to lose badly.
At this rate, Graham Brady's postbag in the first week will be bulging.
What's been happening on the doorsteps in your patch? Tories in trouble?
No, holding up well. That might be a consequence of (1) Mary Creagh voting against the invocation of A50 after Wakefield voted by more than 2:1 for Leave, and (2) an unpopular Labour council which feathers Castleford's bed with Wakefield's money.
Not as good as it was a month ago though.
Many thanks and continued best wishes, and impossible to demur from your critique of the campaign. My forecast is certainly lower than it was when the election was called, but am more sanguine than most here.
Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?
60 billion? He's planning to nationalise everything in sight, free tuition fees, cancel student debt, increase spending all over the place, etc etc etc. Spending commitments for 20/30bn are getting tossed around like sweeties.
More like 300bn right there.
How much does Trident cost?
About £5bn per year. Not a 'huge' amount.
What does that mean in terms we can all understand - how many Abbott Policemen?
Today's London Poll pretty much replicates an unreleased poll at the time of the Manchester bombing:
" The second instalment in Polling London was conducted immediately prior to the Manchester bombing, and was not released at the time due to the events of that week. We are today also releasing the top line voting figures from that survey, which were almost identical to those above. Headline voting figures were: Con 34, Lab 50, LD 11, UKIP 2, Green 2. Fieldwork for the unreleased poll was conducted between 19-23 May. Total sample size was 1,006 adults. Again, the figures have been weighted and are representative of all London adults (aged 18+). "
34% means the Tories are unchanged in London on 2015
While I do think its rubbish there's no doubt that May's appeal over Cameron will be everywhere except London.
On May 15th Yougov's regional poll had the Tories up 1% on 2015 in London, 15% up in the North East, 11% up in the North West, 10% up in Yorkshire and Number, 10% up in the East Midlands, 8% up in the West Midlands, 7% up in the East, 5% up in the South East, 5% up in the South West, 14% up in Wales and 13% up in Scotland https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
It's odd how so many people are saying May should resign even if she wins an overall majority, and Corbyn should stay even if he loses. Perhaps it's the result itself that should matter, not the result compared to expectations.
May invited that comparison though, by calling an election when she didn't have to.
Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?
60 billion? He's planning to nationalise everything in sight, free tuition fees, cancel student debt, increase spending all over the place, etc etc etc. Spending commitments for 20/30bn are getting tossed around like sweeties.
More like 300bn right there.
How much does Trident cost?
According to CND, about £100bn over the next 35 years. According to the Govt, about £75bn over the same period.
The spend isn't equally distributed though, there's a bulge in the early to mid-2020s when the new boats are being built.
WillS.
Funny how big numbers seem when you multiply them by 30. Thats like saying the tuition fees policy costs £330bn.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
We won't evict mum and dad.
But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.
Isn't the issue that a LVT is - or might be perceived to be - a wealth tax and therefore will be seen as resulting in large tax increases for everyone owning a home?
Any sensible campaign should be putting Labour on the spot about exactly what they mean by this.
"Nobody who owns a home to live in will pay a penny more under this proposal than they currently pay in council tax'
hahahahaha....
It would probably be a lie, but it would mainly be a lie due to Council Tax being capped - de facto for private residences it would work out like Council Tax plus Mansion Tax. Could easily turn any critique to be about that, and it fits fine - if people are voting Corbyn already, a mansion tax isn't going to be the thing that puts them off.
Ultimately of course you'd have to decide whether to allow redistribution by making it national, or to protect the massive unearned wealth gains from London and the South East land and housing by banding it regionally. Probably the latter for homes but the former for land.
It's odd how so many people are saying May should resign even if she wins an overall majority, and Corbyn should stay even if he loses. Perhaps it's the result itself that should matter, not the result compared to expectations.
May invited that comparison though, by calling an election when she didn't have to.
Yes. Very odd how May didn't seem to think about having to convince people to vote for her as if that was beneath her.
What happened to the idea, so often aggressively and sometimes pompously punted on here by the likes of Richard N etc that 650 seats under FPP favoured Labour?? It nows seems that a PV vote lead still isn't enough to give Labour most seats.
Nor do we hear from the PB Tories that 650 seats should be cut to 600, as we used to do, endlessly. Presumably as the system now favours the Tories (why and how has it changed?) the PB Tories are perfectly happy with the status quo?
The 2015 election happened. Labour piled up votes in Scotland and London relative to the number of seats, whereas the Tories gained LD seats without adding many votes and losing votes in safe Tory seats to UKIP.
In my West Midlands Labour-held marginal the literature from the Conservatives has been heavily Brexit focused. Not true to say the party are not focusing on that.
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
This isn't Lynton. If it was, Dave would have banged on about it in 2015.
You should not be running a core vote campaign unless you expect to lose badly.
At this rate, Graham Brady's postbag in the first week will be bulging.
But Cameron didn't believe in grammar schools. Whether that was Hilton's influence or because he just didn't think it was a good idea doesn't matter... it just wasn't something available to Crosby.
Crosby is influential, but ultimately he works with what he's got. His approach is then a "core vote" one in a sense, which is what contrasts with people like Hilton. That doesn't mean he isn't interested in people who haven't voted Tory in the past. What it means is that he aims to make any election about X, where X is a fairly divisive, motivating thing that some people disagree with you on, but more than half agree with you on. When it works, it's great. In 2015 it was "do you want Sturgeon calling the shots?", now it's "does Corbyn or May represent your values?". But woe betide you if you get it wrong, as he did with Goldsmith ("Do you really want a Muslim mayor?").
Just now, he remains right to keep to it on May v Corbyn. But it's looking less of an obvious call by the day, because the actual work underpinning it, and reminding people every day of what they think the answer is, has been lacking in quality.
How might the Farage-Russia story impact the election? UKIP will lose votes, but where to? As soon as Trump was elected May ran and literally held his hand, so I can't see much of a plus for the Tories. If Britain elects Labour, we should be proud of voters here who are in effect saying no to both Trump and Putin.
I'll be surprised if Assange holds his tongue for much longer.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
We won't evict mum and dad.
But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.
If they're paying you rent, it's wildly tax-inefficient.
If they're not paying you rent, it's a contrived arrangement, and wouldn't stand up if the council challenged it.
I suppose if the house is worth enough, and the care costs likely to be high enough, to be worth engaging lawyers, you might be able to put the house in a family trust.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
We won't evict mum and dad.
But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.
If they are still living there then under present rules the state will not pay a penny, and it won't matter how long ago they made the gift. They will be treated as if they still own it. I've no idea what would happen under the new proposals but I can't see why that would change.
It's odd how so many people are saying May should resign even if she wins an overall majority, and Corbyn should stay even if he loses. Perhaps it's the result itself that should matter, not the result compared to expectations.
May invited that comparison though, by calling an election when she didn't have to.
She really did. She needed the relevant bits of BrExit in a manifesto so she could get it through the Lords, she can't afford to piss around for two years with the Parliament Act. Even if she gets an unexciting majority of 40 or so, she will be much better placed because she will be able to ignore The Lords in whole areas where she currently can't.
Corbyn showing he is a completely shite negotiator. What is the incentive for the EU to offer any elements of compromise if they know Corbyn will sign up to that deal rather than no deal?
He's even more inept at dealing wth the the EU than Cameron, and that's saying something....
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
We won't evict mum and dad.
But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.
What happened to the idea, so often aggressively and sometimes pompously punted on here by the likes of Richard N etc that 650 seats under FPP favoured Labour?? It nows seems that a PV vote lead still isn't enough to give Labour most seats.
Nor do we hear from the PB Tories that 650 seats should be cut to 600, as we used to do, endlessly. Presumably as the system now favours the Tories (why and how has it changed?) the PB Tories are perfectly happy with the status quo?
It remains the case that the current seat distribution helps Labour , given that traditionally Labour areas such as the NE and Wales have a disproportionately large number of MPs per 100,000 population. It remains the case of course that, irrespective of which party that favours, it's a national disgrace. It remains the case that Conservatives, if re-elected, will continue with the plan, which every democrat supports, for an equitable distribution.
Comments
Londoners are not a different species no, but their politics and the rest of the country's politics has increasingly been two very different things. This has been discussed on this site. You can't read some kind of national swing overall into these figures as a result. London home to many of my age group, ethnic minorities like myself, and is liberal and metropolitan. Of course Labour will do there. It's tailor made for Labour to do well there.
I don't think they will ever lose the oldies to Corbyn. It's the 35-50 year olds in marginals they are fighting for.
Kind of feels to me like a 40:40 campaign, redux.
Corbyn's ineptitude is there for all to see on his approach to Brexit. What is unfathomable is why the Tories haven't put his nuts in a vice over this.
CCHQ, what ARE you doing? Playing candy crush all day?
This is about getting people who own hundreds of houses like that ex-teacher in Kent who hates curry, to pay their fair share, about getting developers to make the contribution they should to the roads and schools we need to provide alongside new houses, and about making it more profitable to put the houses up than to sit on planning permissions making a profit by perpetuating our chronic housing shortage".
Should cover it.
I see it's the most read story on the BBC.
You should not be running a core vote campaign unless you expect to lose badly.
At this rate, Graham Brady's postbag in the first week will be bulging.
I think Nutjob would have wrote Natalie TBF
261/2 in the 45th over.
(In fairness, England are restricting Bangladesh on a good wicket.)
" The second instalment in Polling London was conducted immediately prior to the Manchester bombing, and was not released at the time due to the events of that week. We are today also releasing the top line voting figures from that survey, which were almost identical to those above. Headline voting figures were: Con 34, Lab 50, LD 11, UKIP 2, Green 2. Fieldwork for the unreleased poll was conducted between 19-23 May. Total sample size was 1,006 adults. Again, the figures have been weighted and are representative of all London adults (aged 18+). "
However, none of this alters the fact that this is the most diabolical Tory campaign in my 70 years on the planet.
They are not going to jeopardise that by possibly voting Con.
However, there are roughly 10k students in Aber, and 2015 was fought in term time, whereas the term ends tomorrow this year.
I cant believe many of the students voted Plaid, so given Lib maj is only 3k, less student votes could make it very tight...
She needs to spend this last week just talking about the economy and Brexit. She's lucky that narrative of her not going to that debate is behind her/never took off much.
Media barons who avoid tax
Is there anyway you can block yourself from reading certain posts on the site? I would like to block his posts.
Tories will win a decent majority.
The interesting question is whether Corbyn will continue in place after losing.
Just had S Wales window cleaner doing the office in Valleys.
Spontaneously moaned about possibility of increased corporation tax and higher minimum wage (he's got a team of about half a dozen) - at some length. Said he should vote Conservative but might just go randomly pin on the donkey on the ballot paper for anyone who's not Labour as it didn't matter anyway because he lived in Abertillery.
Paul Goodman"
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2017/06/the-conservative-election-campaign-fails-to-enthuse-party-members.html
You know, I know we wake up on 9/6/17 to
TMICIPM increased majority unfortunately
If the polls say so I suppose
Could Big Jezza actually win this sucker? Surely not??
One of the people behind the till countered they thought it was fair and balanced and said May should have been there.
That's what I heard. I was the youngest one there lol, lot of pensioners around here do shopping there that time of day.
It's every other pollster, which has reported Con leads falling from 18-25% (remember that?) to at best low double figures.
It's the patently obvious wooden campaign performances.
It's not turning up to the debate.
It's the manifesto cock-up
It's *still* campaigning on the wrong issues (the right issues are Brexit, the economy and security).
It's Corbyn looking far better on the campaign trail than he ever does in parliament.
Sure, the Tories *might* still win a majority of eighty but that would still be far less than it should be - and it could be a lot closer.
Gets coat
I'd thought since this election was called that a great result was for May to reap little or no benefit. Having spotted months ago that May was a horrible perfomer, parity seemed an outside chance for a great result. Especially when the Tory manifesto turned out to be little more than more pain for all except the chosen few.
Corbyn has looked much the better perfomer during the campaign but he's still Corbyn. I'm amazed if he gets traction above 35%. That to me would be a very decent result for him.
If there's a mistake in our assumptions it's around the importance of Brexit as a driver of GE votes and that Kippers are all desperate to vote for the Tories. These assumptions may have both been overplayed. People vote in GE on their personal circumstances. That's why I will vote symbolically for Corbyn's manifesto. And as for Brexit, given neither party is denying the result, maybe people are relaxed that we're out, and I don't believe there was ever huge enthusiasm for hard or nuclear brexit among any but the further reaches of Torydom and Kippery.
So maybe this surge is real, albeit my gut still tells me May will get a majority. I hope she gets a tiny one because I want the Tories to own the chaos of the next 5 years. It's your mess. Clean it up.
Anyway there's my theory. But alternatively It could be the Russians, of course.....
May in meltdown as Labour surge
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
Question: what does British business want? Surely that will direct the govt's position more than anything else. In which case, how much distance will there really be between the UK and EU positions?
Not as good as it was a month ago though.
Why London is being read into as a test of the national mood is beyond me. Labour always polls well in London, a good London poll for Labour is standard, it's not news.
Plus it's YouGov.
This is as odd as when people were wondering why May and the Tories were campaigning in marginals.
Seeing signs of trouble in things which are the norm.
Today is the opposite; tories aren't voting for policies or may but just to stop corbyn and labour voters have a reason to vote.
The 2015 demographics and turnour in wards will not be the same. We will not see tories voting at 85-90% in marginals and labour voting at 45-50%. Labour lost marginals because of turnout.
I can only see 5 gains from the tories in the west midlands. I don't think the tories can win an of the seats in stoke or coventry. Corbyn will get more votes than miliband did in these seats in 2015.
The spend isn't equally distributed though, there's a bulge in the early to mid-2020s when the new boats are being built.
I've met a depressing number of voting-age people who are convinced it'll cost £100bn per year.
WillS.
Interesting to see some anger about the Garden Tax not being hammered home by the Conservatives. I wonder why, surely Crosby would have advocated that. But then again how much is Crosby running this campaign? Maybe too many cooks...
What happened to the idea, so often aggressively and sometimes pompously punted on here by the likes of Richard N etc that 650 seats under FPP favoured Labour?? It nows seems that a PV vote lead still isn't enough to give Labour most seats.
Nor do we hear from the PB Tories that 650 seats should be cut to 600, as we used to do, endlessly. Presumably as the system now favours the Tories (why and how has it changed?) the PB Tories are perfectly happy with the status quo?
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/15/voting-intention-regional-breakdown-apr-24-may-5/
But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.
Corbyn more economically realistic than May...
Ultimately of course you'd have to decide whether to allow redistribution by making it national, or to protect the massive unearned wealth gains from London and the South East land and housing by banding it regionally. Probably the latter for homes but the former for land.
Crosby is influential, but ultimately he works with what he's got. His approach is then a "core vote" one in a sense, which is what contrasts with people like Hilton. That doesn't mean he isn't interested in people who haven't voted Tory in the past. What it means is that he aims to make any election about X, where X is a fairly divisive, motivating thing that some people disagree with you on, but more than half agree with you on. When it works, it's great. In 2015 it was "do you want Sturgeon calling the shots?", now it's "does Corbyn or May represent your values?". But woe betide you if you get it wrong, as he did with Goldsmith ("Do you really want a Muslim mayor?").
Just now, he remains right to keep to it on May v Corbyn. But it's looking less of an obvious call by the day, because the actual work underpinning it, and reminding people every day of what they think the answer is, has been lacking in quality.
I'll be surprised if Assange holds his tongue for much longer.
My book is heavily, heavily SCon surge. And not a small surge either.
If they're not paying you rent, it's a contrived arrangement, and wouldn't stand up if the council challenged it.
I suppose if the house is worth enough, and the care costs likely to be high enough, to be worth engaging lawyers, you might be able to put the house in a family trust.
He's even more inept at dealing wth the the EU than Cameron, and that's saying something....
Does that answer all your questions?