It's odd how so many people are saying May should resign even if she wins an overall majority, and Corbyn should stay even if he loses. Perhaps it's the result itself that should matter, not the result compared to expectations.
May invited that comparison though, by calling an election when she didn't have to.
May had to call an election because the economy is going to be in the tank by 2020 and most of the cuts haven't been felt yet. Get a landslide and just hold on and hope that by 2022 the economy has recovered.
The economy in the uk is very, very fragile. The pound hasn't recovered since brexit.
Could Big Jezza actually win this sucker? Surely not??
It's London LOL
Why London is being read into as a test of the national mood is beyond me. Labour always polls well in London, a good London poll for Labour is standard, it's not news.
Plus it's YouGov.
This is as odd as when people were wondering why May and the Tories were campaigning in marginals.
Seeing signs of trouble in things which are the norm.
Could Big Jezza actually win this sucker? Surely not??
It's London LOL
Why London is being read into as a test of the national mood is beyond me. Labour always polls well in London, a good London poll for Labour is standard, it's not news.
Plus it's YouGov.
This is as odd as when people were wondering why May and the Tories were campaigning in marginals.
Seeing signs of trouble in things which are the norm.
I'm not sure you should dismiss it that easily. The swing in London to Labour is pretty sharp. People just don't like Theresa May. Re: where people are campaigning, that, too, can be instructive and was in 2015 when EdM was campaigning in his easiest target.
P.S. I have been looking into the garden tax. It appears to be a land value tax, which is not actually a bad idea. Under the system, land with planning permission which is not being developed would attract a larger tax penalty – which is a useful tool to get developers to build stuff rather than land banking shovel-ready land as a rising asset. The idea that gardens would attract a large tax is completely misleading – unless you have planning permission on them they are very low value!
Just goes to show that you shouldn't believe anything you read in the Tory press – even the once great Telegraph.
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Exactly
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.
When the poll comes back showing Labour level in the Midlands is when the PB bowels truly drop.
Labour ahead in the Midlands/Wales subsample on today's YouGov
Calm down Danny
You know, I know we wake up on 9/6/17 to
TMICIPM increased majority unfortunately
I know, but it's still fun to enjoy the PBTory panic while it lasts.
Tbh, I'm just demob-happy because, at the beginning of the campaign, I was resigned to the Tories getting a bigger majority than Blair 1997, which thankfully now looks out of bounds (*touches wood*).
Dear God, I'd do ANYTHING. ANYTHING to go back in time and have Ed Miliband government right now.
He'd be a way better PM than either May or Corbyn. We'd have not had Brexit either.
Yep. OK No IHT changes would be a future worse for me, but the dementia tax could potentially cost me alot of money. I think the original IHT was probably the fairest way.
It's odd how so many people are saying May should resign even if she wins an overall majority, and Corbyn should stay even if he loses. Perhaps it's the result itself that should matter, not the result compared to expectations.
May invited that comparison though, by calling an election when she didn't have to.
She really did. She needed the relevant bits of BrExit in a manifesto so she could get it through the Lords, she can't afford to piss around for two years with the Parliament Act. Even if she gets an unexciting majority of 40 or so, she will be much better placed because she will be able to ignore The Lords in whole areas where she currently can't.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
We won't evict mum and dad.
But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.
I wouldn't believe everything you hear...
Lets send HMRC to the most expensive streets in tory held seats and speak to all the pensioners and test it.
I think you would be very, very shocked at how many old pensioners no-longer look after there home.
How might the Farage-Russia story impact the election? UKIP will lose votes, but where to? As soon as Trump was elected May ran and literally held Trump's hand, so I can't see much of a plus for the Tories. If Britain elects Labour, we should be proud of voters here who are in effect saying no to both Trump and Putin.
I'll be surprised if Assange holds his tongue for much longer.
I think most people actually understand that the British PM has to work with the elected US President.
It's fun to mock the hand-holding or whatever... but what does "saying no to both Trump and Putin" actually mean? They remain the leaders of the US and Russia, and we have to deal with that.
I'd also query if voting Labour says "no" to Putin. Plainly, he'd rather Corbyn was elected as it may well remove a nuclear power within NATO, makes the West a little more chaotic, and he'd be less likely to leave Russia isolated in the Security Council. (EDIT: Not saying Corbyn is comfortable with Putin, like Trump or Le Pen were. Just that I think Putin thinks he'd be by far the preferable PM from his own perspective).
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
It's *still* campaigning on the wrong issues (the right issues are Brexit, the economy and security).
But not in that order. The right issues are:
the economy, the economy, the economy.
And then acknowledge, as Tezza began to today, that we can't let health and education fall back, funding-wise. Dear god compared with Jezza's spending Tezza could promise a free taxi for everyone going to their GP for a year and still come out up vs Lab's plans.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
We won't evict mum and dad.
But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.
I wouldn't believe everything you hear...
Lets send HMRC to the most expensive streets in tory held seats and speak to all the pensioners and test it.
I think you would be very, very shocked at how many old pensioners no-longer look after there home.
Dear God, I'd do ANYTHING. ANYTHING to go back in time and have Ed Miliband government right now.
He'd be a way better PM than either May or Corbyn. We'd have not had Brexit either.
Ed Miliband would have been a very poor PM. Obviously a zillion times better than Corbyn would be, but that's the lowest bar it's possible to imagine.
May is a reasonably good PM, and a much better PM than she is a campaigner or speech-maker. Of course she's not in Cameron's league, but no-one should be surprised at that.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Under current policy as well, if you get away with it. Under current policy you lose all down to £23K, under proposal all down to £100k and you don't settle up until the owner dies.
Looks to me like Labour are being corralled into inner London, the Valleys and the large city centres. The Tories clearly plan to bank the rest of the country then start dissolving the city fascination with Labour. 10 year extermination programme. Or something.
Dear God, I'd do ANYTHING. ANYTHING to go back in time and have Ed Miliband government right now.
He'd be a way better PM than either May or Corbyn. We'd have not had Brexit either.
But he didn't know how to eat a bacon sandwich neatly. So it's swings and roundabouts really...
(Privately some of my London Tory friends have told me they wished Miliband had won because of Brexit. What will they say if they end up with Corbyn!?)
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.
How many people voting Labour are still very much for Brexit? The idea that Corbyn would can Brexit would be toxic to Labour north of the Severn-Wash line. And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Corbyn's ineptitude is there for all to see on his approach to Brexit. What is unfathomable is why the Tories haven't put his nuts in a vice over this.
CCHQ, what ARE you doing? Playing candy crush all day?
How is the Bay looking - any word back from Kevin ?
Kevin was not worried when I spoke to him a couple of days ago. UKIP is dead (not seen a single poster), LibDems not in favour because of second Referendum. Number of LibDem window posters is well down, especially in the old council estates (of which there are a surprising number in Torbay). Labour a bit more visible - but not unhappy to see their posters in windows!
Corbyn surge definitely helps the Tories around the margins in the Southwest.
May went down like cold sick in Plymouth according to Cornwall live, who also have all six seats on a knifedge.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Under current policy as well, if you get away with it. Under current policy you lose all down to £23K, under proposal all down to £100k and you don't settle up until the owner dies.
Actually you lose all down to 16K. 23K is the point at which the state starts to chip in, but it doesn't pick up the whole bill until you get down to 16K.
Dear God, I'd do ANYTHING. ANYTHING to go back in time and have Ed Miliband government right now.
He'd be a way better PM than either May or Corbyn. We'd have not had Brexit either.
Ed Miliband would have been a very poor PM. Obviously a zillion times better than Corbyn would be, but that's the lowest bar it's possible to imagine.
May is a reasonably good PM, and a much better PM than she is a campaigner or speech-maker. Of course she's not in Cameron's league, but no-one should be surprised at that.
Looks to me like Labour are being corralled into inner London, the Valleys and the large city centres. The Tories clearly plan to bank the rest of the country then start dissolving the city fascination with Labour. 10 year extermination programme. Or something.
Corbyn showing he is a completely shite negotiator. What is the incentive for the EU to offer any elements of compromise if they know Corbyn will sign up to that deal rather than no deal?
He's even more inept at dealing wth the the EU than Cameron, and that's saying something....
He's stating the fucking obvious. The fact May is pretending black is white is probably one of her problems.
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.
How many people voting Labour are still very much for Brexit? The idea that Corbyn would can Brexit would be toxic to Labour north of the Severn-Wash line. And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Corbyn's ineptitude is there for all to see on his approach to Brexit. What is unfathomable is why the Tories haven't put his nuts in a vice over this.
CCHQ, what ARE you doing? Playing candy crush all day?
How is the Bay looking - any word back from Kevin ?
Kevin was not worried when I spoke to him a couple of days ago. UKIP is dead (not seen a single poster), LibDems not in favour because of second Referendum. Number of LibDem window posters is well down, especially in the old council estates (of which there are a surprising number in Torbay). Labour a bit more visible - but not unhappy to see their posters in windows!
Corbyn surge definitely helps the Tories around the margins in the Southwest.
May went down like cold sick in Plymouth according to Cornwall live, who also have all six seats on a knifedge.
"Sam later wrote in the Herald: "I was pleased to have secured the interview and happy to have squeezed all my points in.
"Back at the office, we scratched our heads and wondered what the top line was. "She had given me absolutely nothing. It was like a version of Radio 4's Just A Minute.
"I pictured Nicholas Parsons in the chair: "The next topic is how Plymouth will be affected by Brexit, military cuts and meltdown. Theresa, you have three minutes to talk without clarity, candour or transparency. Your time starts now."
That you gov nonsense now has Labour SECOND in Ceredigion but the bookies have them at least 100/1
Decent-sized university in Ceredigion....
YouGov 'importing' Labour-voting 18-30s into the seat from the surrounding area to supplement those there who will lean more heavily LibDem.
I am fairly certain that the YG methodology can't work for any seat we would see as unusual - third party in contention, etc.
It ought to be better at dealing with straightforward Labour/Tory swing, which is more regional and less seat-specific, assuming that its sample isn't biased to begin with (which is the big 'if').
@bobajobPB Yes, people are certainly going off May (rightly so). But she is still more liked than Corbyn, despite his surge. It's London (and probably other safe Labour areas too) where Corbyn is more popular than May, and has been for a very long time.
On the tax, I need assurances that my parents council tax (or whatever it is that replaces it) isn't going to Sky rocket up. We have the garden at the back in terms of 'land', that's it. The house was worth around 172k when we moved in in 2007. House prices have gone up since then, I don't know whether that is relevant to the LVT.
Looks to me like Labour are being corralled into inner London, the Valleys and the large city centres. The Tories clearly plan to bank the rest of the country then start dissolving the city fascination with Labour. 10 year extermination programme. Or something.
And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Realistically nobody could sell the "we'd be prepared to walk away without a deal" bluff unless they'd been cultivating a Trump-level image of personal instability. If the Tories want to run with that they'll have to get rid of May and pick somebody properly bonkers like David Tredinnick.
Looks to me like Labour are being corralled into inner London, the Valleys and the large city centres. The Tories clearly plan to bank the rest of the country then start dissolving the city fascination with Labour. 10 year extermination programme. Or something.
Timeto release my designer virus that hits left wing wierdos
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
Which begs the question, do the Tories currently fear losing some of that core vote? Instead of seeking to make gains, are they battling to hold what they've already got?
My current assessment is the Tories are worried about losing seats in London, Bath, and Plymouth.
I don't think they will ever lose the oldies to Corbyn. It's the 35-50 year olds in marginals they are fighting for.
Corbyn showing he is a completely shite negotiator. What is the incentive for the EU to offer any elements of compromise if they know Corbyn will sign up to that deal rather than no deal?
He's even more inept at dealing wth the the EU than Cameron, and that's saying something....
He's stating the fucking obvious. The fact May is pretending black is white is probably one of her problems.
Every time you say you don't believe in Brexit a fairy dies.
What happened to the idea, so often aggressively and sometimes pompously punted on here by the likes of Richard N etc that 650 seats under FPP favoured Labour?? It nows seems that a PV vote lead still isn't enough to give Labour most seats.
Nor do we hear from the PB Tories that 650 seats should be cut to 600, as we used to do, endlessly. Presumably as the system now favours the Tories (why and how has it changed?) the PB Tories are perfectly happy with the status quo?
On the seat reduction because it's the law and until the Boundary Commisdion reports (next year?) there's nothing to say
We know how well constituency forecasts/polls worked in 2015...
I don't believe the polls that are asking about the local candidates, as they are making people think locally and we know local elections give completely different results to the GE.
Looks to me like Labour are being corralled into inner London, the Valleys and the large city centres. The Tories clearly plan to bank the rest of the country then start dissolving the city fascination with Labour. 10 year extermination programme. Or something.
The increase in the Labour share in the London poll isn't any different to their national rise with YouGov.
And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Realistically nobody could sell the "we'd be prepared to walk away without a deal" bluff unless they'd been cultivating a Trump-level image of personal instability. If the Tories want to run with that they'll have to get rid of May and pick somebody properly bonkers like David Tredinnick.
Tredinnick is proof that you can elect a donkey if it has the correct colour of rosette.
Looks to me like Labour are being corralled into inner London, the Valleys and the large city centres. The Tories clearly plan to bank the rest of the country then start dissolving the city fascination with Labour. 10 year extermination programme. Or something.
But maybe not in Plymouth.... Depends where the Kippers go - home to Labour, on to the Tories?
Depends on the seat, home to Labour in Sutton & Devonport but on to the Tories in Moor View. Mercer has turned out to be a very good and popular constituency MP, Colvile is a bit of a non-entity.
Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?
60 billion? He's planning to nationalise everything in sight, free tuition fees, cancel student debt, increase spending all over the place, etc etc etc. Spending commitments for 20/30bn are getting tossed around like sweeties.
That you gov nonsense now has Labour SECOND in Ceredigion but the bookies have them at least 100/1
Decent-sized university in Ceredigion....
YouGov 'importing' Labour-voting 18-30s into the seat from the surrounding area to supplement those there who will lean more heavily LibDem.
I am fairly certain that the YG methodology can't work for any seat we would see as unusual - third party in contention, etc.
It ought to be better at dealing with straightforward Labour/Tory swing, which is more regional and less seat-specific, assuming that its sample isn't biased to begin with (which is the big 'if').
Yeah, in reality I'd definitely still expect the Labour share to be depressed in places where they start in 3rd place.
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.
How many people voting Labour are still very much for Brexit? The idea that Corbyn would can Brexit would be toxic to Labour north of the Severn-Wash line. And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Corbyn's ineptitude is there for all to see on his approach to Brexit. What is unfathomable is why the Tories haven't put his nuts in a vice over this.
CCHQ, what ARE you doing? Playing candy crush all day?
How is the Bay looking - any word back from Kevin ?
Kevin was not worried when I spoke to him a couple of days ago. UKIP is dead (not seen a single poster), LibDems not in favour because of second Referendum. Number of LibDem window posters is well down, especially in the old council estates (of which there are a surprising number in Torbay). Labour a bit more visible - but not unhappy to see their posters in windows!
Corbyn surge definitely helps the Tories around the margins in the Southwest.
But maybe not in Plymouth.... Depends where the Kippers go - home to Labour, on to the Tories?
Depends on the seat, home to Labour in Sutton & Devonport but on to the Tories in Moor View. Mercer has turned out to be a very good and popular constituency MP, Colvile is a bit of a non-entity.
WillS.
You don't need to sign your name on every message - it appears automatically
Dear God, I'd do ANYTHING. ANYTHING to go back in time and have Ed Miliband government right now.
He'd be a way better PM than either May or Corbyn. We'd have not had Brexit either.
But he didn't know how to eat a bacon sandwich neatly. So it's swings and roundabouts really...
(Privately some of my London Tory friends have told me they wished Miliband had won because of Brexit. What will they say if they end up with Corbyn!?)
If they think about it, the more realistic wish for them in 2015 would be that Cameron had gained several fewer Lib Dem seats. Hung Parliament, with partners weakened but alive. "We've got most of our manifesto, chaps, but sadly the referendum has had to be shelved due to that unutterable bastard Clegg - still, c'est la vie".
I am certain that's what Cameron thinks with hindsight. The moral is to be careful what you wish for.
Looks to me like Labour are being corralled into inner London, the Valleys and the large city centres. The Tories clearly plan to bank the rest of the country then start dissolving the city fascination with Labour. 10 year extermination programme. Or something.
Vote Tory to vaporise England's cities!
Thats more popular than vote Tory and while your at it give them your deeds in case you require Social Care
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Exactly
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.
When the poll comes back showing Labour level in the Midlands is when the PB bowels truly drop.
Labour ahead in the Midlands/Wales subsample on today's YouGov
Calm down Danny
You know, I know we wake up on 9/6/17 to
TMICIPM increased majority unfortunately
I know, but it's still fun to enjoy the PBTory panic while it lasts.
Tbh, I'm just demob-happy because, at the beginning of the campaign, I was resigned to the Tories getting a bigger majority than Blair 1997, which thankfully now looks out of bounds (*touches wood*).
But let's say the Tories push up their majority by 20-30 at the expense of Labour (and the SNP) - it is still going backwards from Miliband. Yet you will be saddled with Corbyn until he decides to depart the stage.
He will have proven to be a loser - a worse loser than Miliband - just not as big a loser as was expected at the outset. The Left will dig in, hunker down. The moderates will continue to be utterly exasperated. How does that move Labour forward?
To some extent. Although how does it favour Labour if a Labour PV lead gives the Tories a large seat lead (as we read below)?
Why has it changed?
It depends on exactly where the votes shift. If the Tories started to pick up loads of ex-UKIP votes in Labour seats in those areas where constituency sizes are small, the seat-size disparity could favour the Tories. That looked possible three weeks ago, but probably not now.
Don't forget also that, as well as the disparity of seat size, there's the separate question of votes distribution independent of seat size. That's fair enough, it's not a distortion caused by the seats being unfairly concentrated in some areas. In the past it's tended to favour Labour, but it might not this time if Corbyn piles up votes in particular demographics. It's also a bigger effect than the first, or at least has been in recent elections.
Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?
60 billion? He's planning to nationalise everything in sight, free tuition fees, cancel student debt, increase spending all over the place, etc etc etc. Spending commitments for 20/30bn are getting tossed around like sweeties.
More like 300bn right there.
How much does Trident cost?
If you have to ask, you can't afford it.
OMG that reminds me of a time I wandered around Short Hills Mall in the US - no prices anywhere in the windows. I didn't even have the courage to go in and ask!
@bobajobPB Yes, people are certainly going off May (rightly so). But she is still more liked than Corbyn, despite his surge. It's London (and probably other safe Labour areas too) where Corbyn is more popular than May, and has been for a very long time.
On the tax, I need assurances that my parents council tax (or whatever it is that replaces it) isn't going to Sky rocket up. We have the garden at the back in terms of 'land', that's it. The house was worth around 172k when we moved in in 2007. House prices have gone up since then, I don't know whether that is relevant to the LVT.
Anyone who has any kind of assets will be a target from a Corbyn gov. It's inevitable and the only way to pay for his ideas.
Dear God, I'd do ANYTHING. ANYTHING to go back in time and have Ed Miliband government right now.
Have faith in the good sense of the British people. It'll be a majority of 40-60. Right now, they are just pointing out to the PM that they don't like being taken for granted.
The vast majority of people that vote are not exercised by politics generally. They want something for the next five years. Work out what they want and you have your result. It's blindingly obvious what the country wants for the next five years.
Could Big Jezza actually win this sucker? Surely not??
It's London LOL
Why London is being read into as a test of the national mood is beyond me. Labour always polls well in London, a good London poll for Labour is standard, it's not news.
Seeing signs of trouble in things which are the norm.
I'm not sure you should dismiss it that easily. The swing in London to Labour is pretty sharp. People just don't like Theresa May. Re: where people are campaigning, that, too, can be instructive and was in 2015 when EdM was campaigning in his easiest target.
P.S. I have been looking into the garden tax. It appears to be a land value tax, which is not actually a bad idea. Under the system, land with planning permission which is not being developed would attract a larger tax penalty – which is a useful tool to get developers to build stuff rather than land banking shovel-ready land as a rising asset. The idea that gardens would attract a large tax is completely misleading – unless you have planning permission on them they are very low value!
Just goes to show that you shouldn't believe anything you read in the Tory press – even the once great Telegraph.
+1. It would be better if they were looking at replacing or reducing some existing taxation at the same time, which of course they won't. But it's more sensible than ramping up tax for high earners, since land cannot leave the country whereas income can. It also has the potential advantage of collecting a contribution from lots of foreign landlords and property owners who currently pay next to nothing.
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.
How many people voting Labour are still very much for Brexit? The idea that Corbyn would can Brexit would be toxic to Labour north of the Severn-Wash line. And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Corbyn's ineptitude is there for all to see on his approach to Brexit. What is unfathomable is why the Tories haven't put his nuts in a vice over this.
CCHQ, what ARE you doing? Playing candy crush all day?
How is the Bay looking - any word back from Kevin ?
Kevin was not worried when I spoke to him a couple of days ago. UKIP is dead (not seen a single poster), LibDems not in favour because of second Referendum. Number of LibDem window posters is well down, especially in the old council estates (of which there are a surprising number in Torbay). Labour a bit more visible - but not unhappy to see their posters in windows!
Corbyn surge definitely helps the Tories around the margins in the Southwest.
May went down like cold sick in Plymouth according to Cornwall live, who also have all six seats on a knifedge.
Cornwall Live do like to become the story. Last time she came down we found they didn't know that accreditation was a thing. This time they did better and got to ask 6 questions, only she gave them all robot answers. The writer asks (he thinks, rhetorically) whether this means he is a shit journalist. Um, yes.
The vast majority of people that vote are not exercised by politics generally. They want something for the next five years. Work out what they want and you have your result. It's blindingly obvious what the country wants for the next five years.
Looks to me like Labour are being corralled into inner London, the Valleys and the large city centres. The Tories clearly plan to bank the rest of the country then start dissolving the city fascination with Labour. 10 year extermination programme. Or something.
Vote Tory to vaporise England's cities!
Thats more popular than vote Tory and while your at it give them your deeds in case you require Social Care
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
We won't evict mum and dad.
But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.
If they are still living there then under present rules the state will not pay a penny, and it won't matter how long ago they made the gift. They will be treated as if they still own it. I've no idea what would happen under the new proposals but I can't see why that would change.
Aged 60 transfer ownership of the house but retain a 20 year leasehold interest with 4 options to extend by 5 years.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
We won't evict mum and dad.
But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.
If they are still living there then under present rules the state will not pay a penny, and it won't matter how long ago they made the gift. They will be treated as if they still own it. I've no idea what would happen under the new proposals but I can't see why that would change.
Aged 60 transfer ownership of the house but retain a 20 year leasehold interest with 4 options to extend by 5 years.
That works if you pay something close to a market rent. And better not let anyone catch you receiving the rent back from the kids!
@bobajobPB Yes, people are certainly going off May (rightly so). But she is still more liked than Corbyn, despite his surge. It's London (and probably other safe Labour areas too) where Corbyn is more popular than May, and has been for a very long time.
On the tax, I need assurances that my parents council tax (or whatever it is that replaces it) isn't going to Sky rocket up. We have the garden at the back in terms of 'land', that's it. The house was worth around 172k when we moved in in 2007. House prices have gone up since then, I don't know whether that is relevant to the LVT.
I don't think there has been any discussion of what level the tax would be set at. So in a sense your question is unanswerable.
Having said that - the distribution of land in the UK is very unequal. Therefore you would expect a tax to be very progressive - whereas council tax isn't very progressive. If your parents house was worth 172k in 2007 - then it doesn't sound like a massive mansion...
If your parents were the Duke and Duchess of Westminster - then this tax would be a very very bad thing for your finances.
The vast majority of people that vote are not exercised by politics generally. They want something for the next five years. Work out what they want and you have your result. It's blindingly obvious what the country wants for the next five years.
AV
Not just AV, the best possible AV. And a strong milk marketing board.
That you gov nonsense now has Labour SECOND in Ceredigion but the bookies have them at least 100/1
Decent-sized university in Ceredigion....
Two universities I think, Aberystwyth and Lampeter.
yes but both terms end this Saturday and most have already gone home
Anybody know what proportion of students have postal votes? I assume it is not large - especially if they were late in signing up to the register in the first place.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
We won't evict mum and dad.
But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.
If they are still living there then under present rules the state will not pay a penny, and it won't matter how long ago they made the gift. They will be treated as if they still own it. I've no idea what would happen under the new proposals but I can't see why that would change.
Aged 60 transfer ownership of the house but retain a 20 year leasehold interest with 4 options to extend by 5 years.
You'd have to pay market rent though wouldn't you?
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
But the Tory vote isn't the problem according to public polling, Con vote is steady, it's the Labour surge (klaxon alert) that is the issue. I don't see how grammars arrests the surge.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
We won't evict mum and dad.
But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.
If they are still living there then under present rules the state will not pay a penny, and it won't matter how long ago they made the gift. They will be treated as if they still own it. I've no idea what would happen under the new proposals but I can't see why that would change.
Aged 60 transfer ownership of the house but retain a 20 year leasehold interest with 4 options to extend by 5 years.
The 2014 Care Act extended council powers to recover assets in this way, including allowing them to charge care costs directly to the heirs.
If mum and dad flip there home to my spouse, does that mean the state pays for all there social care under the tory social care policy?
Only if it were done a long time in advance. Otherwise it'd be "deliberate deprivation". At best the transaction would be reversed by a court, at worst they'd be prosecuted for fraud.
A woman in my great uncle's old care home did try doing it a long way in advance, and transferred her home to her daughter in law. Then her daughter in law evicted her.
We won't evict mum and dad.
But I'm told that this is very common practice in the leafy tory shires. So again the tax will fall on the middle class.
If they are still living there then under present rules the state will not pay a penny, and it won't matter how long ago they made the gift. They will be treated as if they still own it. I've no idea what would happen under the new proposals but I can't see why that would change.
Aged 60 transfer ownership of the house but retain a 20 year leasehold interest with 4 options to extend by 5 years.
That works if you pay something close to a market rent. And better not let anyone catch you receiving the rent back from the kids!
And in addition the kids will have to pay tax on the rental income....
Dear God, I'd do ANYTHING. ANYTHING to go back in time and have Ed Miliband government right now.
He'd be a way better PM than either May or Corbyn. We'd have not had Brexit either.
But he didn't know how to eat a bacon sandwich neatly. So it's swings and roundabouts really...
(Privately some of my London Tory friends have told me they wished Miliband had won because of Brexit. What will they say if they end up with Corbyn!?)
If they think about it, the more realistic wish for them in 2015 would be that Cameron had gained several fewer Lib Dem seats. Hung Parliament, with partners weakened but alive. "We've got most of our manifesto, chaps, but sadly the referendum has had to be shelved due to that unutterable bastard Clegg - still, c'est la vie".
I am certain that's what Cameron thinks with hindsight. The moral is to be careful what you wish for.
+1. It would be better if they were looking at replacing or reducing some existing taxation at the same time, which of course they won't. But it's more sensible than ramping up tax for high earners, since land cannot leave the country whereas income can. It also has the potential advantage of collecting a contribution from lots of foreign landlords and property owners who currently pay next to nothing.
Could get a bit expensive for most of the supermarkets, water companies, electric companies, and indeed any other company that owns lots of premium land. Of course the second you allow companies any quarter from the new tax you will see all those foreign landlords and property owners incorporate and transfer their holdings to the company. Tricky one.
Dear God, I'd do ANYTHING. ANYTHING to go back in time and have Ed Miliband government right now.
He'd be a way better PM than either May or Corbyn. We'd have not had Brexit either.
But he didn't know how to eat a bacon sandwich neatly. So it's swings and roundabouts really...
(Privately some of my London Tory friends have told me they wished Miliband had won because of Brexit. What will they say if they end up with Corbyn!?)
If they think about it, the more realistic wish for them in 2015 would be that Cameron had gained several fewer Lib Dem seats. Hung Parliament, with partners weakened but alive. "We've got most of our manifesto, chaps, but sadly the referendum has had to be shelved due to that unutterable bastard Clegg - still, c'est la vie".
I am certain that's what Cameron thinks with hindsight. The moral is to be careful what you wish for.
Yes you're right.
That was always my favourite bit. Something that was in both the Conservative and Lib Dem manifestos, but managed to have to be negotiated away for them to form a coalition...
@bobajobPB Yes, people are certainly going off May (rightly so). But she is still more liked than Corbyn, despite his surge. It's London (and probably other safe Labour areas too) where Corbyn is more popular than May, and has been for a very long time.
On the tax, I need assurances that my parents council tax (or whatever it is that replaces it) isn't going to Sky rocket up. We have the garden at the back in terms of 'land', that's it. The house was worth around 172k when we moved in in 2007. House prices have gone up since then, I don't know whether that is relevant to the LVT.
I don't think there has been any discussion of what level the tax would be set at. So in a sense your question is unanswerable.
Having said that - the distribution of land in the UK is very unequal. Therefore you would expect a tax to be very progressive - whereas council tax isn't very progressive. If your parents house was worth 172k in 2007 - then it doesn't sound like a massive mansion...
If your parents were the Duke and Duchess of Westminster - then this tax would be a very very bad thing for your finances.
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
But the Tory vote isn't the problem according to public polling, Con vote is steady, it's the Labour surge (klaxon alert) that is the issue. I don't see how grammars arrests the surge.
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.
How many people voting Labour are still very much for Brexit? The idea that Corbyn would can Brexit would be toxic to Labour north of the Severn-Wash line. And by giving away all his trading chips up front (as he has done), the EU could give a truly shit take-it-or-leave-it deal, knowing he would take it because he won't countenance "no deal is better than a poor deal".
Corbyn's ineptitude is there for all to see on his approach to Brexit. What is unfathomable is why the Tories haven't put his nuts in a vice over this.
CCHQ, what ARE you doing? Playing candy crush all day?
How is the Bay looking - any word back from Kevin ?
Kevin was not worried when I spoke to him a couple of days ago. UKIP is dead (not seen a single poster), LibDems not in favour because of second Referendum. Number of LibDem window posters is well down, especially in the old council estates (of which there are a surprising number in Torbay). Labour a bit more visible - but not unhappy to see their posters in windows!
Corbyn surge definitely helps the Tories around the margins in the Southwest.
May went down like cold sick in Plymouth according to Cornwall live, who also have all six seats on a knifedge.
Cornwall Live do like to become the story. Last time she came down we found they didn't know that accreditation was a thing. This time they did better and got to ask 6 questions, only she gave them all robot answers. The writer asks (he thinks, rhetorically) whether this means he is a shit journalist. Um, yes.
The Brexit question is a total gimme. You're in Plymouth, standing next to a group of fishermen.
How do you not say - Brexit will let us take back our fishing rights and we can get a better deal for our fishing industry?
It's a statement of the bleedin' obvious, but the line that 'no deal is a bad deal' is a tautology just as 'a bad deal is worse than no deal' is. It's equally bleedin' obvious that 'no deal is a bad deal' applies to the EU27 as well as to us.
One thing the PM has unquestionably got right is her position on this. She wants a good deal, and she's made it very clear what kind of deal she wants. It completely baffles me that anyone thinks that this is a weak point; it's her strongest point, and makes perfect sense. The risks don't lie with the UK's position, but with the EU27's.
Comments
The economy in the uk is very, very fragile. The pound hasn't recovered since brexit.
We'd have not had Brexit either.
P.S. I have been looking into the garden tax. It appears to be a land value tax, which is not actually a bad idea. Under the system, land with planning permission which is not being developed would attract a larger tax penalty – which is a useful tool to get developers to build stuff rather than land banking shovel-ready land as a rising asset. The idea that gardens would attract a large tax is completely misleading – unless you have planning permission on them they are very low value!
Just goes to show that you shouldn't believe anything you read in the Tory press – even the once great Telegraph.
Tbh, I'm just demob-happy because, at the beginning of the campaign, I was resigned to the Tories getting a bigger majority than Blair 1997, which thankfully now looks out of bounds (*touches wood*).
And UKIP would be massive.
I think you would be very, very shocked at how many old pensioners no-longer look after there home.
To some extent. Although how does it favour Labour if a Labour PV lead gives the Tories a large seat lead (as we read below)?
Why has it changed?
It's fun to mock the hand-holding or whatever... but what does "saying no to both Trump and Putin" actually mean? They remain the leaders of the US and Russia, and we have to deal with that.
I'd also query if voting Labour says "no" to Putin. Plainly, he'd rather Corbyn was elected as it may well remove a nuclear power within NATO, makes the West a little more chaotic, and he'd be less likely to leave Russia isolated in the Security Council. (EDIT: Not saying Corbyn is comfortable with Putin, like Trump or Le Pen were. Just that I think Putin thinks he'd be by far the preferable PM from his own perspective).
the economy, the economy, the economy.
And then acknowledge, as Tezza began to today, that we can't let health and education fall back, funding-wise. Dear god compared with Jezza's spending Tezza could promise a free taxi for everyone going to their GP for a year and still come out up vs Lab's plans.
Next.
May is a reasonably good PM, and a much better PM than she is a campaigner or speech-maker. Of course she's not in Cameron's league, but no-one should be surprised at that.
On such fine margins...
Or something.
So it's swings and roundabouts really...
(Privately some of my London Tory friends have told me they wished Miliband had won because of Brexit. What will they say if they end up with Corbyn!?)
http://m.cornwalllive.com/prime-minister-theresa-may-came-to-plymouth-and-left-reporters-scratching-their-heads/story-30365969-detail/story.html
Boy, is she crap!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FTQlKRb8xuu7eWOKWPd-rr3FpMnvmFRpuISGae6_POs/edit#gid=1491560107
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlTggc0uBA8
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2017_by_name.php
These were the declaration times at GE2015:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o3RvcR3zAf4H6dMyvN5Bvk7zrlTUMQQYJE74xpeOJAQ/edit#gid=0
"Back at the office, we scratched our heads and wondered what the top line was.
"She had given me absolutely nothing. It was like a version of Radio 4's Just A Minute.
"I pictured Nicholas Parsons in the chair: "The next topic is how Plymouth will be affected by Brexit, military cuts and meltdown. Theresa, you have three minutes to talk without clarity, candour or transparency. Your time starts now."
I am fairly certain that the YG methodology can't work for any seat we would see as unusual - third party in contention, etc.
It ought to be better at dealing with straightforward Labour/Tory swing, which is more regional and less seat-specific, assuming that its sample isn't biased to begin with (which is the big 'if').
On the tax, I need assurances that my parents council tax (or whatever it is that replaces it) isn't going to Sky rocket up. We have the garden at the back in terms of 'land', that's it. The house was worth around 172k when we moved in in 2007. House prices have gone up since then, I don't know whether that is relevant to the LVT.
We know how well constituency forecasts/polls worked in 2015...
I don't believe the polls that are asking about the local candidates, as they are making people think locally and we know local elections give completely different results to the GE.
With his joke
WillS.
If labour hold darlington at 01.30am what does that mean for the tory majority prediction?
#thankmelater
PM
I am certain that's what Cameron thinks with hindsight. The moral is to be careful what you wish for.
He will have proven to be a loser - a worse loser than Miliband - just not as big a loser as was expected at the outset. The Left will dig in, hunker down. The moderates will continue to be utterly exasperated. How does that move Labour forward?
Don't forget also that, as well as the disparity of seat size, there's the separate question of votes distribution independent of seat size. That's fair enough, it's not a distortion caused by the seats being unfairly concentrated in some areas. In the past it's tended to favour Labour, but it might not this time if Corbyn piles up votes in particular demographics. It's also a bigger effect than the first, or at least has been in recent elections.
Anyone who has any kind of assets will be a target from a Corbyn gov. It's inevitable and the only way to pay for his ideas.
He comes across way better now - v good sense of humour, affable especially on Twitter . Did you see him on the Last Leg? He was great on there!
So in a sense your question is unanswerable.
Having said that - the distribution of land in the UK is very unequal. Therefore you would expect a tax to be very progressive - whereas council tax isn't very progressive. If your parents house was worth 172k in 2007 - then it doesn't sound like a massive mansion...
If your parents were the Duke and Duchess of Westminster - then this tax would be a very very bad thing for your finances.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-land-value-tax-manifesto-general-election-2017-jeremy-corbyn-john-mcdonnell-a7738766.html
Someone help me here. Why is Corbyn going to Pitsea, Essex? One week before Election day?
Google 'deprivation of assets'
Prof Roger Scully Retweeted SharpendITV
And it's an interesting one!
You're in Plymouth, standing next to a group of fishermen.
How do you not say - Brexit will let us take back our fishing rights and we can get a better deal for our fishing industry?
One thing the PM has unquestionably got right is her position on this. She wants a good deal, and she's made it very clear what kind of deal she wants. It completely baffles me that anyone thinks that this is a weak point; it's her strongest point, and makes perfect sense. The risks don't lie with the UK's position, but with the EU27's.