Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
The Tories had better have some bloody big rabbits to pull out of the hat in this last week or we are all screwed. I keep hoping the events since the Tory manifesto launch are just a nightmare I am having and I will wake up and find TM still has a twenty point lead heading for a landslide with a strategy and a manifesto that is well thought out......then reality dawns and the cliff is approaching fast
LOL Have they even got a hat?
Not since Cameron and Osborne took their top hats.....
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
If only the market would fully reflect the PB bed wetting there would be value to be had.
In an interview with the Daily Telegraph, Mrs Leadsom suggested that Mrs May should not become the next Conservative Party leader and prime minister because she does not "believe" in taking Britain out of the EU.
Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote share
A bit unfair, she gave a good speech on why Britain should stay in the EU that TOPPING linked below. She clearly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)
Fair enough, but her behaviour makes me wonder. If she was a Remainer, why would she want to be a PM who has to be a "Leave" PM? Either she was never a Remainer and was just following Cabinet policy or if she was a Remainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.
It's possible t 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.
That is, without doubt, the case. And May has blown her chances of a White Cliffs of Dover, We Shall Never Surrender Brexit by being so useless. The Tories are going to get rid of her sooner rather than later, I imagine. But who takes over who can keep them together?
If she wins a decent majority - 50+ - she'll survive, if she gets over 80 or 100 everyone will forget her dire campaign (until the next one).
As for Brexit, I foresee something like this: talks begin and almost immediately stalemate on the EU's demands. The government has a vast internal battle, as it becomes obvious that the choice is between Crash Brexit and Soft Brexit (stay in SM etc), because there is no Bespoke Brexit that is acceptable to the UK.
Who wins? Dunno.
You continue to fantasize about Soft BrExit, its like the yeti, lots of people talk about it, but there isn't the faintest shred of evidence that it exists. Every word that has passed the lips of every EU official and negotiator for the past year has been very, mononotously clear, its hard BrExit or No BrExit.
Of course the EU would offer us Soft Brexit - i.e. EFTA or EEA. We'd have to accept Free Movement, pay some contributions, and we'd have no say over EU laws. It's win-win for them, they get money, uninterrupted trade, and Britain is seen to do worse.
But a British PM would have to sell that to the country. Perhaps Prime Minister Corbyn is the man.
I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)
If Crosby and Messina have absolute control of the campaign (and I sure hope they do), then presumably this grammar school stuff - not something to tickle my fancy - is deemed to resonate with their targeted constituency. And previous polls have confirmed that to be the case.
But I'm mystified why there has been nothing, absolutely nothing, on the economy: that's the antithesis of the 2015 campaign where yet another rendition of that bloody "long term economic plan" would send even the bluest of us into that darkened room. But Blimey O'Reilly it delivered the goods,
The good news for the Tories in London is that they're only defending 2 seats with a majority of less than 8% against Labour. Croydon Central and Hendon. And the latter is unlikely to fall because it has a majority of 7.5% and is in Barnet. So basically it's just Croydon Central at risk. Majority = 165.
If that repeats across the UK it's Prime Minister Corbyn.
It would equate to shares of Lab 38%, Con 37% nationwide.
That suggests that the Conservatives are performing significantly better outside of the capital.
A Corbyn victory all hinges on whether one sexy manifesto, and one huge Tory manifesto fuck-up, combined with May being a bit nervous, boring and robotic (rather Queen Elizabeth I) is enough to overturn the leadership and economy ratings, all the evidence of the electoral results over the last few months, and all our assumptions about swingback.
Maybe. Maybe not. Personally the sense I get from my Tory friends is exasperation, but they'll still be voting Tory.
I don't doubt Corbyn has seen huge surges with the under 30s, and may even be close to level in the 35-45 bracket, but he is still massively behind with the over 55s.
Brexit won because it had those demographics, plus peeled off enough younger ABs and enough WWC voters to carry it over the line.
Corbyn doesn't have that.
The Virgin Queen was a nervous boring robot? You live and learn.
Look at that Sky voxpop from Bridgend, Wales. People DON'T find Corbyn toxic. They find him surprisingly human and empathetic (I disagree, but these are the reports); they also like free stuff. Also, they've REALLY gone off Theresa, and given that "Theresa is better than Jeremy" was the essence of the Tory campaign, that ain't good.
You may, however, be right about the Tory data and voter efficiency; I have no idea.
seen a clip of a youth debate on S4C tonight when youngesters grill Nia Griffith its not very good watching for Labour as they say your not serious on security, Jeremy Corbyn's history, stop bribing the youth vote, borrow borrow borrow
According to this poll, Labour are actually up in London "only" as much as they are in the rest of the UK (the national YouGov polls have had Labour up 5-8% compared to 2015 over the past week, so a 6% rise in London is bang in line with that).
That said, the Conservatives are doing considerably worse in London than nationally, so the Con->Lab swing still more substantial there than elsewhere. The difference made up by the LibDems doing a bit better in London than nationally, and UKIP also having a "better" drop in London than nationally (only because they had less support to lose in London in the first place than they did nationally).
Hardly surprising. Big biz is terrified of Corbyn.
where exactly are the tories pissing all that doh? Please don't tell me it's *all*going on fb and youtube ad's.....
That is the question I would like the answer to also.
Pretty much every begging email I get from the LibDems mentions the cost of online stuff like FB adds, so it must be eating up a good slice of the parties' spending.
And not very well targeted either, I haven't seen a FB or Youtube ad from the Tories (imagine they have me flagged as a known Socialist) but lots from the Lib Dems and I'm not even in a LD target seat.
This guy sums the election campaign up and he predicted it April 27th. 1) Theresa May doesn't want to participate in the election. 2) Tory supporters just spend all day throwing mud at Corbyn.
If Crosby and Messina have absolute control of the campaign (and I sure hope they do), then presumably this grammar school stuff - not something to tickle my fancy - is deemed to resonate with their targeted constituency. And previous polls have confirmed that to be the case.
But I'm mystified why there has been nothing, absolutely nothing, on the economy: that's the antithesis of the 2015 campaign where yet another rendition of that bloody "long term economic plan" would send even the bluest of us into that darkened room. But Blimey O'Reilly it delivered the goods,
The new line is that the economy will suffer unless we "get Brexit right" which is even more platitudinous bollox than "long term economic plan"
I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)
Even a soft Brexit means going through the Article 50 wringer with tough demands on Northern Ireland, money, etc. In practice soft Brexit means no Brexit, ever.
If she tries that tomorrow on QT, Corbyn mentions private schools and the election is over. How can anyone talk about schools and social mobility in Britain without mentioning the most important division? The Tories back upward mobility for spivs and that's about it. As for downward mobility, why isn't Soamesy washing car windscreens somewhere?
CD13's "We will hit an economic whirlwind when Corbyn takes over and he'll blame it totally on Brexit" seems apt. The whole Brexit narrative has been awful for this country, and Corbyn is absolutely right that "no deal" would mean an appallingly bad deal. So, out the Tories go - they've effed the country up, the rich have made a packet, and someone else will have to clear up after them. Thank goodness Labour has a competent leader.
Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
It's fun to watch.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.
Despite my gusset-wetting, I still think you're right: TMay will get some sort of majority.
However I wonder if it could be really really tiny, and what that will do to her. If it's sub-50, she is in trouble. If it's under 20, she resigns?
It will be sub 50 now. The campaign is just too crap to bear.
There is a difference between a bad campaign and how the ground game is going to turn out. If you google wobbles for 1997, 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2015 you always find one in a campaign and the eventual winner of those campaigns had a wobble. Go back further in time to 1987 and even Thatcher had a wobble.
I am surprised at SeanT, surely as a journalist he knows the game of elections. It is all about story telling!
I don't particularly like the PM but I think Corbyn's proposals sound delightful until you think where is the money going to come from to pay for it all? Any rational being will change their behaviour to avoid the taxes he will instigate. It is just pie in the sky, I would probably be better off under Labour in the short term at least but I just have no faith in Corbyn being able to deliver anything but a mess.
If Crosby and Messina have absolute control of the campaign (and I sure hope they do), then presumably this grammar school stuff - not something to tickle my fancy - is deemed to resonate with their targeted constituency. And previous polls have confirmed that to be the case.
But I'm mystified why there has been nothing, absolutely nothing, on the economy: that's the antithesis of the 2015 campaign where yet another rendition of that bloody "long term economic plan" would send even the bluest of us into that darkened room. But Blimey O'Reilly it delivered the goods,
Difference between 2015 and now is that Sir Lynton (pbuh) had two years to plan the Tory campaign, this time he's had two months and boy it shows.
Plus the rumours persist Mrs May and her staff believe they know better than Sir Lynton, cf the dementia tax.
Whereas Dave trusted Sir Lynton implicitly and vice versa.
"The politically engaged are a tiny, but enthusiastic, percentage of the population. The difficulty for opinion pollsters is that they are not representative of the public. They follow politicians and political journalists on twitter, they post about politics on forums, they watch Newsnight and the Daily Politics, digest the info and answer polls. They like to show off their understanding and want everyone/anyone to know that A GREAT DEAL OF THOUGHT HAS GONE INTO THIS. As most men in the pub discuss football, they are online discussing politics. While the man in the pub will generally quite bluntly say who he (always) votes for when asked, the politically engaged find such partisan loyalty an affront to critical thinking - being seen to be "undecided" is a badge of honour, it shows they are a serious person. They admire intellectual reasoning and put a high price on their vote, so when the chance comes to answer questions on how they think and why, it's like giving someone a big line of cocaine and asking them to talk about themselves. Political obsessives are the material of opinion polls, but not the fabric of the nation. "
Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote share
A bit unfair, she gave a good speech on why Britain should stay in the EU that TOPPING linked below. She clearly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)
Fair enough, but her behaviour makes me wonder. If she was a Remainer, why would she want to be a PM who has to be a "Leave" PM? Either she was never a Remainer and was just following Cabinet policy or if she was a Remainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.
It's possible t 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.
That is, without doubt, the case. And May has blown her chances of a White Cliffs of Dover, We Shall Never Surrender Brexit by being so useless. The Tories are going to get rid of her sooner rather than later, I imagine. But who takes over who can keep them together?
If she wins a decent majority - 50+ - she'll survive, if she gets over 80 or 100 everyone will forget her dire campaign (until the next one).
Who wins? Dunno.
.
Of course the EU would offer us Soft Brexit - i.e. EFTA or EEA. We'd have to accept Free Movement, pay some contributions, and we'd have no say over EU laws. It's win-win for them, they get money, uninterrupted trade, and Britain is seen to do worse.
But a British PM would have to sell that to the country. Perhaps Prime Minister Corbyn is the man.
I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)
To be honest, I'd probably take EFTA-EEA now.
It's not like immigration is going to massively come down with an official ending of free movement, anyway, and we'd still have an emergency break.
If it doesn't pan out, split again once we've recalibrated all out trade deals and schedules in 10-15 years time, and people have got fed up of us not having a say in the rules.
--- Croydon Central from Conservative to Labour --- Hendon from Conservative to Labour --- Kingston and Surbiton from Conservative to Liberal Democrat --- Twickenham from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Exactly
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.
According to a recent Reuters poll, 14 of 30 economists that participated think that a Conservative Party win would be the best for the U.K. on Brexit negotiations.
11 think a coalition government would be best 5 think a Labour win would be best
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
Which begs the question, do the Tories currently fear losing some of that core vote? Instead of seeking to make gains, are they battling to hold what they've already got?
If Crosby and Messina have absolute control of the campaign (and I sure hope they do), then presumably this grammar school stuff - not something to tickle my fancy - is deemed to resonate with their targeted constituency. And previous polls have confirmed that to be the case.
But I'm mystified why there has been nothing, absolutely nothing, on the economy: that's the antithesis of the 2015 campaign where yet another rendition of that bloody "long term economic plan" would send even the bluest of us into that darkened room. But Blimey O'Reilly it delivered the goods,
I'm beginning to wonder if the social media campaign is overshadowing the 'real' campaign. If these targeted messages are getting confused with a national campaign message then there could be a lot of very strange sound bites coming out.
Edited extra bit. I'm also mystified why the Labour manifesto hasn't been dissected to deathand hammered on about. It's what the great unwashed understand and expect.
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
Hold on. Aren't we supposed to be well past the core vote by now? Last I heard, before May's campaign blew itself up, they were pushing to take seats in the North East.
BBC Debate got 3.51m - bang in line with expectations. But of course many more would have seen clips on news etc. Last night's ratings (will post the lot for context / general interest):
18:00: BBC News at Six - 4.15m (31.5%) 18:30: BBC Regional News - 4.58m (32.1%) 19:00: The One Show - 2.64m (17.3%) 19:30: BBC Election Debate - 3.51m (17.8%) 21:00: The Met: Policing London - 3.42m (16.2%) 22:00: BBC News at Ten - 4.53m (27.0%)
The good news for the Tories in London is that they're only defending 2 seats with a majority of less than 8% against Labour. Croydon Central and Hendon. And the latter is unlikely to fall because it has a majority of 7.5% and is in Barnet. So basically it's just Croydon Central at risk. Majority = 165.
Any major bods been campaigning in Croydon Central?
If Crosby and Messina have absolute control of the campaign (and I sure hope they do), then presumably this grammar school stuff - not something to tickle my fancy - is deemed to resonate with their targeted constituency. And previous polls have confirmed that to be the case.
But I'm mystified why there has been nothing, absolutely nothing, on the economy: that's the antithesis of the 2015 campaign where yet another rendition of that bloody "long term economic plan" would send even the bluest of us into that darkened room. But Blimey O'Reilly it delivered the goods,
The final redoubt crumbles. JohnO is worried.
No. 12-15% lead and majority of 100. But like everyone here, I agree the campaign has been, er, sub-optimal.
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Exactly
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.
When the poll comes back showing Labour level in the Midlands is when the PB bowels truly drop.
--- Croydon Central from Conservative to Labour --- Hendon from Conservative to Labour --- Kingston and Surbiton from Conservative to Liberal Democrat --- Twickenham from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Exactly
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.
When the poll comes back showing Labour level in the Midlands is when the PB bowels truly drop.
Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
It's fun to watch.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.
Despite my gusset-wetting, I still think you're right: TMay will get some sort of majority.
However I wonder if it could be really really tiny, and what that will do to her. If it's sub-50, she is in trouble. If it's under 20, she resigns?
I'm beginning to fear the worst, the election is running away from the tories, They haven't once mentioned a strong economy, low taxes and unemployment, strong defence and security, and the UNS of a clear and determined Brexit. Instead all we are hearing is fox hunting, social care costs, hammering the pensioners and grammar schools etc. etc. Who is advising the tory campaign, this is beyond dire, if they still manage to scrape a win it will be a miracle. The vox pops are not sounding good, shes become like bread that has turned mouldy, no longer fresh and appealing. Whereas Corbyn is looking like a Chocolate Fudge Cake, sweet and gooey and appealing, but guaranteed to make you sick once consumed in full.
Maybe she has had enough and wants to be out walking the hills on 9th June instead of assembling a new Cabinet.
This is beyond bonkers to raise all grammar school dreaming that at this stage.
She should be hammering Labour over the economy and tax from dawn til dusk.
Where the fuck is Hammond?
Sometimes I wonder if most of the rest of the Cabinet are happy to hang May out to dry.
I haven't seen Hammond on TV for about 3 weeks.
I think its imagined that he would be vulnerable to being asked how the Tories are going to pay for their manifesto and what taxes would go up.
Or he is doing what May did during the EU Ref and preserving his reputation for the post-election leadership battle...
Also there has been briefing about how No 10 are going to sack him or break up the Treasury after the GE so I don't imagine he feels any loyalty to May.
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
Hold on. Aren't we supposed to be well past the core vote by now? Last I heard, before May's campaign blew itself up, they were pushing to take seats in the North East.
They still might be. They definitely would have been but for this awful campaign. Blyth Valley was very close on local election numbers.
"Polls which showed a huge Conservative majority have been dismissed as wrong, misleading or downright lies for weeks, but that’s all changed now.
YouGov, the organisation which ran the poll, was until yesterday a Tory front organisation dedicated to doing Jeremy Corbyn down, but is now at the forefront of accurate data and should be taken as the blue riband standard of polling organisations."
According to this poll, Labour are actually up in London "only" as much as they are in the rest of the UK (the national YouGov polls have had Labour up 5-8% compared to 2015 over the past week, so a 6% rise in London is bang in line with that).
That said, the Conservatives are doing considerably worse in London than nationally, so the Con->Lab swing still more substantial there than elsewhere. The difference made up by the LibDems doing a bit better in London than nationally, and UKIP also having a "better" drop in London than nationally (only because they had less support to lose in London in the first place than they did nationally).
The swing across London may not be uniform either. Labour might be doing exceptionally well in seats they already hold, less well towards the M25....
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
So Tories worried about core vote, that's a limiting losses strategy. Simply amazing.
This is going bonkers. She has gone to a Labour held marginal in NE to announce a policy that is intended to shore up the collapsing Tory core vote to save from a hung parliament.
Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote share
A bit uly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)
Fair enough, mainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.
It's possible t 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.
That is, with over who can keep them together?
If she wins a decent majority - 50+ - she'll survive, if she gets over 80 or 100 everyone will forget her dire campaign (until the next one).
Who wins? Dunno.
.
Of course the EU would offer us Soft Brexit - i.e. EFTA or EEA. We'd have to accept Free Movement, pay some contributions, and we'd have no say over EU laws. It's win-win for them, they get money, uninterrupted trade, and Britain is seen to do worse.
But a British PM would have to sell that to the country. Perhaps Prime Minister Corbyn is the man.
I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)
To be honest, I'd probably take EFTA-EEA now.
It's not like immigration is going to massively come down with an official ending of free movement, anyway, and we'd still have an emergency break.
If it doesn't pan out, split again once we've recalibrated all out trade deals and schedules in 10-15 years time, and people have got fed up of us not having a say in the rules.
If Corbyn wins, or we get a Hung Parliament, expect Bremorse and Bregret to surge, amongst rightwingers. We will probably see polls showing 60/40 Remain/Leave in a year.
I agree if Corbyn gets in, the pressure to 'cancel' Brexit will be huge.
A bit unfair, she gave a good speech on why Britain should stay in the EU that TOPPING linked below. She clearly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)
Fair enough, but her behaviour makes me wonder. If she was a Remainer, why would she want to be a PM who has to be a "Leave" PM? Either she was never a Remainer and was just following Cabinet policy or if she was a Remainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.
It's possible t 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.
That is, without doubt, the case. And May has blown her chances of a White Cliffs of Dover, We Shall Never Surrender Brexit by being so useless. The Tories are going to get rid of her sooner rather than later, I imagine. But who takes over who can keep them together?
If she wins a decent majority - 50+ - she'll survive, if she gets over 80 or 100 everyone will forget her dire campaign (until the next one).
Who wins? Dunno.
.
Of course the EU would offer us Soft Brexit - i.e. EFTA or EEA. We'd have to accept Free Movement, pay some contributions, and we'd have no say over EU laws. It's win-win for them, they get money, uninterrupted trade, and Britain is seen to do worse.
But a British PM would have to sell that to the country. Perhaps Prime Minister Corbyn is the man.
I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)
To be honest, I'd probably take EFTA-EEA now.
It's not like immigration is going to massively come down with an official ending of free movement, anyway, and we'd still have an emergency break.
If it doesn't pan out, split again once we've recalibrated all out trade deals and schedules in 10-15 years time, and people have got fed up of us not having a say in the rules.
I've always said that Brexit should be seen as a process, rather than a single one off date, with us slowly disengaging ourselves over time. Otherwise you run the risk of a Brexit recession, on the back of people deferring investment decisions as the future is unclear. And a serious Brexit recession (which given our savings rate is at multi-decade lows is a very real possibility) would poison British politics for a generation.
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
So Tories worried about core vote, that's a limiting losses strategy. Simply amazing.
This is going bonkers. She has gone to a Labour held marginal in NE to announce a policy that is intended to shore up the collapsing Tory core vote to save from a hung parliament.
Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote share
A bit uly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)
Fair enough, mainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.
It's possible t 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.
That is, with over who can keep them together?
If she wins a decent majority - 50+ - she'll survive, if she gets over 80 or 100 everyone will forget her dire campaign (until the next one).
Who wins? Dunno.
.
Of course the EU would offer us Soft Brexit - i.e. EFTA or EEA. We'd have to accept Free Movement, pay some contributions, and we'd have no say over EU laws. It's win-win for them, they get money, uninterrupted trade, and Britain is seen to do worse.
But a British PM would have to sell that to the country. Perhaps Prime Minister Corbyn is the man.
I think the EU would be over the moon if we took the soft Brexit option. (And it is obviously available, as it has been taken to varying degrees by Norway, Iceland and Switzerland.)
To be honest, I'd probably take EFTA-EEA now.
It's not like immigration is going to massively come down with an official ending of free movement, anyway, and we'd still have an emergency break.
If it doesn't pan out, split again once we've recalibrated all out trade deals and schedules in 10-15 years time, and people have got fed up of us not having a say in the rules.
If Corbyn wins, or we get a Hung Parliament, expect Bremorse and Bregret to surge, amongst rightwingers. We will probably see polls showing 60/40 Remain/Leave in a year.
The Kippers who vote for him will certainly regret it.
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Exactly
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.
When the poll comes back showing Labour level in the Midlands is when the PB bowels truly drop.
Labour ahead in the Midlands/Wales subsample on today's YouGov
--- Croydon Central from Conservative to Labour --- Hendon from Conservative to Labour --- Kingston and Surbiton from Conservative to Liberal Democrat --- Twickenham from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
In reality, I suspect the high Jewish population would keep Hendon blue even if Labour do win by 17 points in London as a whole.
On the other hand, the high young population in Battersea would edge that perilously close to the Labour column on these numbers.
As it happens I'm canvassing in Kingston and Surbiton this evening: won't be able to discern much from one evening (though I'll ask the team about responses thus far) and report back.
This feels terrible. This feels like YouGov is right, and the Tories are gonna lose seats.
This feels like Trump, this feels like Brexit.
Labour are now 5/1 to have most seats....
Wales is poorest part of the UK. Corbyn is promising to give them lots of cash, paid for by rich people and corporations. It would be staggering if it wasn't going down well there....
Crick making a total idiot of himself in that question and answer Session and allowed May a good hit. Neither May or Corbyn are talking to us anymore, remember that. May is ploughing the furrow of Brexiteers and kippers and economy driven voters, Corbyn is playing to the smash the system crowd and old labour and the youth. She's not going to say things politicos want to hear nor is he. They will say things the general public want to hear. London going hard for Corbyn probably means the Tory tactic is working. Whither London away go the rest.
Banging on about grammar schools is a core vote strategy.
I agree; Lynton knows what he's doing.
Hold on. Aren't we supposed to be well past the core vote by now? Last I heard, before May's campaign blew itself up, they were pushing to take seats in the North East.
Perhaps he's doing it for financial reasons. Firm up your core support to get resources to target floaters.
Is it fair to say that today Labour have momentum?
(which will no doubt please Momentum)
They've had it from day one of this campaign. It's as if they called the election themselves: it seemed to take the Tories more by surprise then Labour, judging by the respecxtive quality of their campaigns.
Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
It's fun to watch.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.
Despite my gusset-wetting, I still think you're right: TMay will get some sort of majority.
However I wonder if it could be really really tiny, and what that will do to her. If it's sub-50, she is in trouble. If it's under 20, she resigns?
I'm beginning to fear the worst, the election is running away from the tories, They haven't once mentioned a strong economy, low taxes and unemployment, strong defence and security, and the UNS of a clear and determined Brexit. Instead all we are hearing is fox hunting, social care costs, hammering the pensioners and grammar schools etc. etc. Who is advising the tory campaign, this is beyond dire, if they still manage to scrape a win it will be a miracle. The vox pops are not sounding good, shes become like bread that has turned mouldy, no longer fresh and appealing. Whereas Corbyn is looking like a Chocolate Fudge Cake, sweet and gooey and appealing, but guaranteed to make you sick once consumed in full.
Perhaps part of the problem is this campaign will be 7 weeks. Most incumbent PMs try to keep it as short as possible.
Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
It's fun to watch.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.
Despite my gusset-wetting, I still think you're right: TMay will get some sort of majority.
However I wonder if it could be really really tiny, and what that will do to her. If it's sub-50, she is in trouble. If it's under 20, she resigns?
I'm beginning to fear the worst, the election is running away from the tories, They haven't once mentioned a strong economy, low taxes and unemployment, strong defence and security, and the UNS of a clear and determined Brexit. Instead all we are hearing is fox hunting, social care costs, hammering the pensioners and grammar schools etc. etc. Who is advising the tory campaign, this is beyond dire, if they still manage to scrape a win it will be a miracle. The vox pops are not sounding good, shes become like bread that has turned mouldy, no longer fresh and appealing. Whereas Corbyn is looking like a Chocolate Fudge Cake, sweet and gooey and appealing, but guaranteed to make you sick once consumed in full.
Yep. I mean maybe I'm not seeing them on Facebook, but where are the adverts with tax bombshells on them? Brown spent years trying to avoid those at every election. Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?
Christ on a bike. The level of bedwetting on the basis of basically no evidence except for some highly suspect YouGov polling, which was highly suspect and mostly just plain wrong in the last election, is absurd and frankly painful to read. People really need to grow a pair and wait until the gold standard shows us there is a problem. If Tessie romps in with a majority of 80 or so, a lot of people here are going to look more than faintly ridiculous.
Exactly
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.
It doesn't matter, it's the swing which counts. People who were considering the Tories are now heavily Labour.
Londoners are humans just like everyone else in Britain, they aren't a different species.
We can expect this pattern to be repeated across the country, to a greater or lesser extent. The only place where it won't apply is Scotland and NI, where the campaign is entirely different.
Polling suggests that other parts of the country are moving very differently to London. The Tories were 5% behind in London, even with 20% leads overall.
--- Croydon Central from Conservative to Labour --- Hendon from Conservative to Labour --- Kingston and Surbiton from Conservative to Liberal Democrat --- Twickenham from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
BBC Debate got 3.51m - bang in line with expectations. But of course many more would have seen clips on news etc. Last night's ratings (will post the lot for context / general interest):
18:00: BBC News at Six - 4.15m (31.5%) 18:30: BBC Regional News - 4.58m (32.1%) 19:00: The One Show - 2.64m (17.3%) 19:30: BBC Election Debate - 3.51m (17.8%) 21:00: The Met: Policing London - 3.42m (16.2%) 22:00: BBC News at Ten - 4.53m (27.0%)
Outgunned by Britain's Got Talent. If only Leanne Wood had possessed the wisdom and foresight to deliver her opening remarks whilst balancing a beach ball on her nose or something.
Now Corbyn comes along and threatens to spend £60 billion out of nowhere and there are no bombs?
60 billion? He's planning to nationalise everything in sight, free tuition fees, cancel student debt, increase spending all over the place, etc etc etc. Spending commitments for 20/30bn are getting tossed around like sweeties.
--- Croydon Central from Conservative to Labour --- Hendon from Conservative to Labour --- Kingston and Surbiton from Conservative to Liberal Democrat --- Twickenham from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
I've always said that Brexit should be seen as a process, rather than a single one off date, with us slowly disengaging ourselves over time. Otherwise you run the risk of a Brexit recession, on the back of people deferring investment decisions as the future is unclear. And a serious Brexit recession (which given our savings rate is at multi-decade lows is a very real possibility) would poison British politics for a generation.
Brexit is a process by which the virus of Euroscepticism that infected the British right in the late 80s is finally sweated out.
Comments
Sometimes I wonder if most of the rest of the Cabinet are happy to hang May out to dry.
@LOS_Fisher: Theresa May's "people can have faith in me because I have faith in them" line... makes no sense...?
Lab +6
Con -2
LD +3
UKIP -5
Green -3
Full results for London in 2015:
Lab 43.69%
Con 34.88%
UKIP 8.12%
LD 7.71%
Greens 4.85%
Others 0.75%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11QE57smiTTefgOGeWIbnipZRmTPOkwpaKNHV_Cyx4T0/edit#gid=0
(Scroll down to bottom for regional results)
Colostomy bag?
Southampton Test haven't got back to me.
Anyone got a number?
Edit. Or South?
In an interview with the Daily Telegraph, Mrs Leadsom suggested that Mrs May should not become the next Conservative Party leader and prime minister because she does not "believe" in taking Britain out of the EU.
I've got SKY on in the background.
But I'm mystified why there has been nothing, absolutely nothing, on the economy: that's the antithesis of the 2015 campaign where yet another rendition of that bloody "long term economic plan" would send even the bluest of us into that darkened room. But Blimey O'Reilly it delivered the goods,
Song and strable
Went the phable
Of Theresa May
Weak and wobbly
Bibbly bobbly
Was all she had to say
Look at that Sky voxpop from Bridgend, Wales. People DON'T find Corbyn toxic. They find him surprisingly human and empathetic (I disagree, but these are the reports); they also like free stuff. Also, they've REALLY gone off Theresa, and given that "Theresa is better than Jeremy" was the essence of the Tory campaign, that ain't good.
You may, however, be right about the Tory data and voter efficiency; I have no idea.
seen a clip of a youth debate on S4C tonight when youngesters grill Nia Griffith its not very good watching for Labour as they say your not serious on security, Jeremy Corbyn's history, stop bribing the youth vote, borrow borrow borrow
That said, the Conservatives are doing considerably worse in London than nationally, so the Con->Lab swing still more substantial there than elsewhere. The difference made up by the LibDems doing a bit better in London than nationally, and UKIP also having a "better" drop in London than nationally (only because they had less support to lose in London in the first place than they did nationally).
The Conservatives are therefore considerably outperforming their national rating in other parts of the country.
This guy sums the election campaign up and he predicted it April 27th.
1) Theresa May doesn't want to participate in the election.
2) Tory supporters just spend all day throwing mud at Corbyn.
CD13's "We will hit an economic whirlwind when Corbyn takes over and he'll blame it totally on Brexit" seems apt. The whole Brexit narrative has been awful for this country, and Corbyn is absolutely right that "no deal" would mean an appallingly bad deal. So, out the Tories go - they've effed the country up, the rich have made a packet, and someone else will have to clear up after them. Thank goodness Labour has a competent leader.
I am surprised at SeanT, surely as a journalist he knows the game of elections. It is all about story telling!
I don't particularly like the PM but I think Corbyn's proposals sound delightful until you think where is the money going to come from to pay for it all? Any rational being will change their behaviour to avoid the taxes he will instigate. It is just pie in the sky, I would probably be better off under Labour in the short term at least but I just have no faith in Corbyn being able to deliver anything but a mess.
O/T
Can anyone point me to a UK resource that shows Industry-Specific Multiples for EBIT when valuing businesses? I've found USA ones.
Plus the rumours persist Mrs May and her staff believe they know better than Sir Lynton, cf the dementia tax.
Whereas Dave trusted Sir Lynton implicitly and vice versa.
Plus Dave was very nimble on his feet
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html?m=1
It's not like immigration is going to massively come down with an official ending of free movement, anyway, and we'd still have an emergency break.
If it doesn't pan out, split again once we've recalibrated all out trade deals and schedules in 10-15 years time, and people have got fed up of us not having a say in the rules.
--- Croydon Central from Conservative to Labour
--- Hendon from Conservative to Labour
--- Kingston and Surbiton from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
--- Twickenham from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
http://www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/items/hss/198136.html
Coming back on here to find PBers losing it over YouGov polling and specifically YouGov polling on London
London is not representative of the country. It's heavily Labour and has been so for sometime. The way some are going on you'd think it was the Midlands.
11 think a coalition government would be best
5 think a Labour win would be best
Edited extra bit. I'm also mystified why the Labour manifesto hasn't been dissected to deathand hammered on about. It's what the great unwashed understand and expect.
18:00: BBC News at Six - 4.15m (31.5%)
18:30: BBC Regional News - 4.58m (32.1%)
19:00: The One Show - 2.64m (17.3%)
19:30: BBC Election Debate - 3.51m (17.8%)
21:00: The Met: Policing London - 3.42m (16.2%)
22:00: BBC News at Ten - 4.53m (27.0%)
18:00: ITV Regional News - 2.92m (22.5%)
18:25: Party Election Broadcast - 2.70m (19.5%)
18:30: ITV Evening News - 2.85m (20.0%)
19:00: Emmerdale - 5.43m (35.6%)
19:30: Britain's Got Talent - 7.16m (36.4%)
* peak - 8.38m (38.1%) at 20:50
21:05: Coronation Street - 7.60m (35.3%)
21:35: Britain's Got Talent Results - 6.11m (29.1%)
* peak - 7.03m (33.0%) at 21:55
22:05: ITV News at Ten - 2.24m (14.1%)
On the other hand, the high young population in Battersea would edge that perilously close to the Labour column on these numbers.
Or he is doing what May did during the EU Ref and preserving his reputation for the post-election leadership battle...
Also there has been briefing about how No 10 are going to sack him or break up the Treasury after the GE so I don't imagine he feels any loyalty to May.
"Polls which showed a huge Conservative majority have been dismissed as wrong, misleading or downright lies for weeks, but that’s all changed now.
YouGov, the organisation which ran the poll, was until yesterday a Tory front organisation dedicated to doing Jeremy Corbyn down, but is now at the forefront of accurate data and should be taken as the blue riband standard of polling organisations."
http://newsthump.com/2017/05/31/polls-suddenly-accurate/
Eh?
http://www.healthline.com/health/digestive-health/most-effective-diarrhea-remedies#overview1
(which will no doubt please Momentum)
Corbyn is promising to give them lots of cash, paid for by rich people and corporations.
It would be staggering if it wasn't going down well there....
Neither May or Corbyn are talking to us anymore, remember that. May is ploughing the furrow of Brexiteers and kippers and economy driven voters, Corbyn is playing to the smash the system crowd and old labour and the youth. She's not going to say things politicos want to hear nor is he. They will say things the general public want to hear.
London going hard for Corbyn probably means the Tory tactic is working. Whither London away go the rest.
1/4 Lib Dems
4/1 Plaid
16/1 Conservatives
Between 100/1 and 150/1 Labour, Greens, UKiP
More like 300bn right there.