politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More worrying numbers for Team Theresa as doubts amongst punte
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Sounds like tories have given up on that seat tbh....Cyclefree said:Anecdote alert:
In Hampstead and Kilburn Labour won last time with a very small majority. The Lib Dems were a long long way behind. So this is a marginal where the Tories really should be confident of winning and should be putting some effort into.
And yet the only party that I can see regularly leafleting etc are the Lib Dems who have absolutely no chance here unless something amazing happens. The Tories sent a leaflet once at the very start. The Labour MP actually bothered to canvass and was personally impressive. Either the Tories think it in the bag or they are focusing their efforts elsewhere in the constituency or they are being useless/complacent.
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Yes.Scrapheap_as_was said:I seem to recall another election where YouGov volume of polling output was distorting what other polls were suggesting..... and also there was often the holiday polling hypothesis. Are these both redundant now?
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You continue to fantasize about Soft BrExit, its like the yeti, lots of people talk about it, but there isn't the faintest shred of evidence that it exists. Every word that has passed the lips of every EU official and negotiator for the past year has been very, mononotously clear, its hard BrExit or No BrExit.SeanT said:
If she wins a decent majority - 50+ - she'll survive, if she gets over 80 or 100 everyone will forget her dire campaign (until the next one).SouthamObserver said:
That is, without doubt, the case. And May has blown her chances of a White Cliffs of Dover, We Shall Never Surrender Brexit by being so useless. The Tories are going to get rid of her sooner rather than later, I imagine. But who takes over who can keep them together?Beverley_C said:
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.williamglenn said:
It's possible that she genuinely thought that her Home Office EU negotiations could be used as a model for Brexit and didn't appreciate the gravity of the decisions that will need to be made. It's certainly my impression that one of the main factors in pushing her to go for an early election was the realisation that she was going 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.Beverley_C said:
Fair enough, but her behaviour makes me wonder. If she was a Remainer, why would she want to be a PM who has to be a "Leave" PM? Either she was never a Remainer and was just following Cabinet policy or if she was a Remainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.RobD said:
A bit unfair, she gave a good speech on why Britain should stay in the EU that TOPPING linked below. She clearly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)Beverley_C said:
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote shareTheScreamingEagles said:Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
As for Brexit, I foresee something like this: talks begin and almost immediately stalemate on the EU's demands. The government has a vast internal battle, as it becomes obvious that the choice is between Crash Brexit and Soft Brexit (stay in SM etc), because there is no Bespoke Brexit that is acceptable to the UK.
Who wins? Dunno.0 -
What makes it really implausible that they would have to say "yes" unanimously, and any one of them could attach any condition it liked to saying "yes".Cyclefree said:
People are entitled to change their mind. What I don't see is the mechanism by which such a change of mind could be implemented before the March 2019 deadline? What if the rest of the EU says "no" to a request to stay in?Beverley_C said:
I wonder if it will ever get so FUBAR that people will start yelling "STOP"?SouthamObserver said:
That is, without doubt, the case. And May has blown her chances of a White Cliffs of Dover, We Shall Never Surrender Brexit by being so useless. The Tories are going to get rid of her sooner rather than later, I imagine. But who takes over who can keep them together?Beverley_C said:
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.williamglenn said:
It's possible that she genuinely thought that her Home Office EU negotiations could be used as a model for Brexit and didn't appreciate the gravity of the decisions that will need to be made. It's certainly my impression that one of the main factors in pushing her to go for an early election was the realisation that she was going 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.Beverley_C said:
Fair enough, but her behaviour makes me wonder. If she was a Remainer, why would she want to be a PM who has to be a "Leave" PM? Either she was never a Remainer and was just following Cabinet policy or if she was a Remainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.RobD said:
A bit unfair, she gave a good speech on why Britain should stay in the EU that TOPPING linked below. She clearly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)Beverley_C said:
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote shareTheScreamingEagles said:Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
Even some of the Leavers on here seem to getting a bit lukewarm on the whole process0 -
Tories - start to get worried when any non-YouGov poll shows Labour doing OK in the Midlands. Until then, you are absolutely fine. There is not much more Labour can get from London.0
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How many votes for Corbyn's Labour nationwide would that represent soaking up? 300-400k?AlastairMeeks said:That's a 4% swing to Labour from the Conservatives, I think. On a uniform basis, that would win Labour the following seats:
Croydon Central
Hendon
There aren't many marginals in London.0 -
Brief and surprisingly aimless karate (8,5)AlastairMeeks said:That's a 4% swing to Labour from the Conservatives, I think. On a uniform basis, that would win Labour the following seats:
Croydon Central
Hendon
There aren't many marginals in London.0 -
Labour are still 16-1 in Brighton Pavillion, do you think that's value?AlastairMeeks said:That's a 4% swing to Labour from the Conservatives, I think. On a uniform basis, that would win Labour the following seats:
Croydon Central
Hendon
There aren't many marginals in London.0 -
Guisborough is the Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland (lab majority ~2,200) which would make sensefelix said:
No such seat - nearest is Gainsborough with a 15000 tory majority!rottenborough said:
Guisborough is mentioned on Guardian blog.felix said:
do we know the seats?RobD said:
That's landslide territory, if those seats are in contention? I don't even know what is going on anymore.SeanT said:Slightly more reassuring, FWIW
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/8702374602609541130 -
Well I'm off to spend the afternoon with Wonder Woman.
Panelbase out this afternoon.
YouGov Wales circa 4pm.
Play nicely, and someone for the love of everything holy, please keep an eye on SeanT's blood pressure.0 -
Telegraph:
"If the misnamed Tory dementia tax damaged May, Labour’s infinitely more radical Garden Tax would annihilate Jeremy Corbyn – if only the middle classes were aware of it. So why, oh why, are the Tories not making more of it? Why is it not on every piece of literature?"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/31/labours-brutal-garden-tax-would-confiscate-middle-englands-wealth/0 -
Every other house has a Lucas postertlg86 said:
Labour are still 16-1 in Brighton Pavillion, do you think that's value?AlastairMeeks said:That's a 4% swing to Labour from the Conservatives, I think. On a uniform basis, that would win Labour the following seats:
Croydon Central
Hendon
There aren't many marginals in London.0 -
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Mr. Borough, because the Conservative campaign is dire.
Anyway, I'm off.0 -
One other point about the "controversial YouGov model". It bases turnout for different socio-economic groups on data from 2010 and 2015. If there were a Corbyn effect increasing turnout among groups where it is historically low, the YouGov model would miss it. (On the other hand, of course they are saying that the model correctly projected a "Leave" victory in the referendum.)0
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Difference between 2015 and 2017.
Conservatives have nothing to vote for there voting against someone. They have no policies to vote for.
Theresa May wins the election and we have no idea what she is going to do for the next 5 years and everyone will feel deeply depressed because after stopping corbyn the reality sinks in that people voted for someone with no policies and no vision.
Labour for the first time since 2001 are voting for someone with policies they support. You can't win marginals with turnout in labour wards of 40-50% while tory wards were at 85-90%.
Win or lose; Theresa May will lose in 2022 or be kicked out by the tory parliamentary party. She has to the luckiest general in history; didn't have face tory members to be elected leader and had corbyn as opposition.0 -
Because May is crap. This is it. This is as good the tory campaign gets. I think I'm going to slit my wrists....rottenborough said:Telegraph:
"If the misnamed Tory dementia tax damaged May, Labour’s infinitely more radical Garden Tax would annihilate Jeremy Corbyn – if only the middle classes were aware of it. So why, oh why, are the Tories not making more of it? Why is it not on every piece of literature?"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/31/labours-brutal-garden-tax-would-confiscate-middle-englands-wealth/0 -
William Hill are offering evens on the Tories, which can be covered at 6/4 on Labour with Ladbrokes.Cyclefree said:Anecdote alert:
In Hampstead and Kilburn Labour won last time with a very small majority. The Lib Dems were a long long way behind. So this is a marginal where the Tories really should be confident of winning and should be putting some effort into.
And yet the only party that I can see regularly leafleting etc are the Lib Dems who have absolutely no chance here unless something amazing happens. The Tories sent a leaflet once at the very start. The Labour MP actually bothered to canvass and was personally impressive. Either the Tories think it in the bag or they are focusing their efforts elsewhere in the constituency or they are being useless/complacent.0 -
I thought the whole reason for the difference between the polls was because YouGov used self-reported turnout, whereas ICM uses historical data?Chris said:One other point about the "controversial YouGov model". It bases turnout for different socio-economic groups on data from 2010 and 2015. If there were a Corbyn effect increasing turnout among groups where it is historically low, the YouGov model would miss it. (On the other hand, of course they are saying that the model correctly projected a "Leave" victory in the referendum.)
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Truly wonderful stuff from Conservative press office. Theresa May, who speaks only in soundbites, now too busy to swap them.0
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Nope - it's Brexit on the EU's terms or no deal at all. Walking away and inflicting immense damage t the UK economy and the living standards of millions of Britons is the one call May has. If she doesn't do that, the EU will decide what happens.HYUFD said:
If May gets a majority over 50 it is Brexit on her terms, indeed only a hung parliament would likely see soft BrexitSouthamObserver said:
That is, without doubt, the case. And May has blown her chances of a White Cliffs of Dover, We Shall Never Surrender Brexit by being so useless. The Tories are going to get rid of her sooner rather than later, I imagine. But who takes over who can keep them together?Beverley_C said:
Then we are heading up S**t Creek and the paddles are going overboard.williamglenn said:
It's possible that she genuinely thought that her Home Office EU negotiations could be used as a model for Brexit and didn't appreciate the gravity of the decisions that will need to be made. It's certainly my impression that one of the main factors in pushing her to go for an early election was the realisation that she was going 'alone and naked' into the negotiations.Beverley_C said:
Fair enough, but her behaviour makes me wonder. If she was a Remainer, why would she want to be a PM who has to be a "Leave" PM? Either she was never a Remainer and was just following Cabinet policy or if she was a Remainer then the lure of power was too much to resist.RobD said:
A bit unfair, she gave a good speech on why Britain should stay in the EU that TOPPING linked below. She clearly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)Beverley_C said:
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote shareTheScreamingEagles said:Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
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SNP Corbyn proof - he could push SLAB into 2nd ahead of SCON though !MonikerDiCanio said:
If Corbyn can crack the Nats then it's on.Cyan said:0 -
I think the Tories have taken knocking copy about Corbyn & Co as far as it will go. Since they are the favourites people are expecting them to have something to say on their own account.rottenborough said:Telegraph:
"If the misnamed Tory dementia tax damaged May, Labour’s infinitely more radical Garden Tax would annihilate Jeremy Corbyn – if only the middle classes were aware of it. So why, oh why, are the Tories not making more of it? Why is it not on every piece of literature?"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/31/labours-brutal-garden-tax-would-confiscate-middle-englands-wealth/0 -
It seems to me we have three separate things - (1) the huge YouGov model, (2) the individual YouGov polls, (3) the other companies' independent polls.RobD said:
I thought the whole reason for the difference between the polls was because YouGov used self-reported turnout, whereas ICM uses historical data?Chris said:One other point about the "controversial YouGov model". It bases turnout for different socio-economic groups on data from 2010 and 2015. If there were a Corbyn effect increasing turnout among groups where it is historically low, the YouGov model would miss it. (On the other hand, of course they are saying that the model correctly projected a "Leave" victory in the referendum.)
The description of (1) says turnout is based on historical data from 210 and 2015.0 -
Nige cancelling his trip to Florida. No way he's stepping on US soil for a while.0
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Anecdote from this corner of England - Tories moving resources from a marginal constituency they are defending to one that they expect to regain. No explanation given to me but one assumes that it's canvass data or private polling driving the change.david_herdson said:
Canvassing. Possibly rumours of postal votes too, if people were being naughty.Chris said:
I've been sceptical all along about the accuracy of opinion polls. But most people didn't seem very sceptical before. The doubts seemed to emerge when some of the polls started showing only small Tory leads.isam said:How many times do opinion polls have to be wrong before people realise they're a load of old shit?
"If the polls called it incorrectly in the last two national elections, why should take seriously what they tell us now? Why did they indicate one thing, pretty strongly, only for the public to say something different? I believe it’s because they are not recording the opinion of the public as a whole but extrapolating the opinion of the type who like answering opinion polls - the politically engaged."
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html?m=1
Where the opinion poll sceptics remain confident of a Tory victory, I don't know what that's based on.0 -
Sturgeon's possibly worse than May.calum said:
SNP Corbyn proof - he could push SLAB into 2nd ahead of SCON !MonikerDiCanio said:
If Corbyn can crack the Nats then it's on.Cyan said:0 -
Wasn't that Survation?RobD said:
I thought the whole reason for the difference between the polls was because YouGov used self-reported turnout, whereas ICM uses historical data?Chris said:One other point about the "controversial YouGov model". It bases turnout for different socio-economic groups on data from 2010 and 2015. If there were a Corbyn effect increasing turnout among groups where it is historically low, the YouGov model would miss it. (On the other hand, of course they are saying that the model correctly projected a "Leave" victory in the referendum.)
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NCPoliticsUK: YouGov/QMUL (London Westminster):
CON 33 (-3)
LAB 50 (+9)
LD 11 (-3)
UKIP 3 (-3)
GRN 2 (-1)
26th-31st May
N~1,000
#GE20170 -
If I were May i'd be training and practicing like a mother fucker for the BBC QT session on Friday night. Practice, test. Practice, test. Feedback. Practice, practice, test. Come out pumped up and fighting.
She won't be, and won't.0 -
So not only did Russia influence the US Presidential election they likely helped Leave.Scott_P said:
Leavers are traitors and will be marked accordingly unless they recant their support for Leave.0 -
London is going to end up like Remain. Meaningless votes piled up, while the Tories take Twickenham, Richmond and Sutton.0
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@faisalislam: "Get Brexit right" is the new "Strong & Stable"0
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The Tories had better have some bloody big rabbits to pull out of the hat in this last week or we are all screwed. I keep hoping the events since the Tory manifesto launch are just a nightmare I am having and I will wake up and find TM still has a twenty point lead heading for a landslide with a strategy and a manifesto that is well thought out......then reality dawns and the cliff is approaching fast0
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Is it because gardens aren't developable land so would pay a minute amount of tax, and the whole critique is in fact bollocks driven by Tory developers and rentiers desperate to protect their cashcows and landbanks? Better get "garden tax" through to 10% of voters who are genuinely worried than make a top issue of it and get it through to 50% of voters, but with the added information that it's a lie?rottenborough said:Telegraph:
"If the misnamed Tory dementia tax damaged May, Labour’s infinitely more radical Garden Tax would annihilate Jeremy Corbyn – if only the middle classes were aware of it. So why, oh why, are the Tories not making more of it? Why is it not on every piece of literature?"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/31/labours-brutal-garden-tax-would-confiscate-middle-englands-wealth/0 -
Labour were already riding high in inner London they must be making inroads in Outer London for them to be doing this well. Forget the tories GAINing seat there now. They will LOSE seats in London now. Thanks May you utter utter rubbish politician.Casino_Royale said:London is precisely the sort of place I'd expect to see Corbyn do very well.
But, not that well.0 -
There's nothing to stop them painting the office blue either. It's called breach of contractTravelJunkie said:
London Companiesmatt said:
That would surprise me. What evidence do you have of that?TravelJunkie said:
So you support the right of employers changing your hourly rate after working those hours?BannedInParis said:
yes, as clearly stated in the post.TravelJunkie said:
Have you worked on a zero hour contract?BannedInParis said:
"Rich people will never understand zero hour contracts and the damage they do long term to young people. "TravelJunkie said:
Rich people will never understand zero hour contracts and the damage they do long term to young people. This is why people vote Tory they don't understand what its like to be homeless, have no job, be on a zero contract, unable to afford the rent and don't have the bank of mum and dad to support them for a deposit or a roof over their heads to save for a deposit.currystar said:
An interesting quote from that article:Ishmael_Z said:House prices fell again in May, Nationwide says
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40117132
Third successive month, not happened since 2009
In 6 months time we may be saying how clever of TMay to get a 30 seat majority now and postpone the recession-related shellacking she was due in 2020.
However, Mr Gardener said: "The number of people in work has continued to rise at a healthy pace. Indeed, the unemployment rate fell to a 42-year low in the three months to March."
I think the tories should be banging on more about that
When you listen to young people who vote tory they have one thing in common; they live with mum and dad or mum and dad are paying the vast majority of bills and providing the resources to get ahead of their competition
Sigh.
ZHCs have a clear defined role in an economy and are popular with a certain % of the population. Those, like myself barely ten years ago, who want experience and money while working their way to something else.
Banning them, making that a cornerstone of the campaign, is a very retrograde, narrow view of the topic.
Sales Jobs.
Construction jobs.
Finance jobs.
Jobs where your paid an agreed hourly rate or you get commission. The job is more difficult than expected and the employer simple undercuts your wage and when you appeal there is nothing you can do about it.
There is nothing in a zero hour contract stopping employers breaking pay and conditions.0 -
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But we have a very one sided extradition treaty with the States.Slackbladder said:Nige cancelling his trip to Florida. No way he's stepping on US soil for a while.
Will Nigel Farage look good in orange?0 -
I know what you're saying, Trump/Brexit were unexpected results.SeanT said:
This feels terrible. This feels like YouGov is right, and the Tories are gonna lose seats.Freggles said:
This feels like Trump, this feels like Brexit.
Labour are now 5/1 to have most seats....
However, the Brexit and Trump results were in one direction politically, Rthe resulkts for Rutte in Holland and Macron (and not Le Pen) were in the opposite direction. If May fails to get her landslide that feels to me like a move in the Macron direction rather than that of Trump/Brexit.0 -
Yep - they are traitors and idiots at the same time. Great combo!!TheScreamingEagles said:
So not only did Russia influence the US Presidential election they likely helped Leave.Scott_P said:
Leavers are traitors and will be marked accordingly unless they recant their support for Leave.0 -
What did you gov predict for the local elections ?
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He might draw some of the firePeterMannion said:0 -
Mr Charles,
"Interest of 1.5% is a very big assumption."
They also assume the profits from the nationalised industries will pay off that interest. That assumes they will carry on making profits. But given that Labour will increase the payroll (they always do), and increasing demand in these industries is unlikely - given that they are basic services, and increasing prices will be too uncomfortable, that only leaves extra borrowing.
Nationalised services tend to be run for the workers, not the customers - the few not the many - so although it's a nice idea, it doesn't add up economically. Getting rid of shareholders sounds good but ...
I'm no economist, I was a scientist, so perhaps I've got this all wrong?0 -
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I keep banging on about the holiday effect (for which my apologies) - I've just had a look at the data for 1987; the May half term week then appears to coincide with a 6% narrowing of the Tory-Labour lead, which unwound the following week....Scrapheap_as_was said:I seem to recall another election where YouGov volume of polling output was distorting what other polls were suggesting..... and also there was often the holiday polling hypothesis. Are these both redundant now?
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It would equate to shares of Lab 38%, Con 37% nationwide.SeanT said:
If that repeats across the UK it's Prime Minister Corbyn.Scott_P said:NCPoliticsUK: YouGov/QMUL (London Westminster):
CON 33 (-3)
LAB 50 (+9)
LD 11 (-3)
UKIP 3 (-3)
GRN 2 (-1)
26th-31st May
N~1,000
#GE2017
That suggests that the Conservatives are performing significantly better outside of the capital.0 -
Some things work well when left to the private sector. Cars, clothes, computers etc. They may need some regulations around safety etc. but largely can be left alone.glw said:
*sigh*rkrkrk said:The point is - if you think Labour should have included a cost of 66 billion in their manifesto, - then you simply do not understand how government finances work.
If you think Labour should promise to nationalise things without explaining the costs and benefits of doing so — make the case, don't just follow party dogma — then you are probably a Corbyn supporter and beyond reason.
Other industries struggle to get meaningful competition like railways and utilities.
I think it's perfectly legitimate to have some of the latter group in public ownership, indeed many European countries do and it works fine for them.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-labour-manifesto-renationalisation-rail-energy-banks-europe-a7731961.html
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Maybe that's why he was spotted at the Ecuadorian embassy the other week.TheScreamingEagles said:
But we have a very one sided extradition treaty with the States.Slackbladder said:Nige cancelling his trip to Florida. No way he's stepping on US soil for a while.
Will Nigel Farage look good in orange?0 -
Yep, they were the only ones who thought it possible the Tories could win every LD seat in the South West.Andrew said:Have to say, the Tories response across the board is not one of a party that thinks it's in any danger of a hung parliament. They might be wrong/complacent of course, but their internal polling and targetting was exceptionally good in 2015.
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The only consolation in this is that Corbyns support the polls are registering is all London and inner city based and in safe seats that make his vote share inefficient. I am still pinning my hopes on the Midlands saving us from CorbynSeanT said:
If that repeats across the UK it's Prime Minister Corbyn.Scott_P said:NCPoliticsUK: YouGov/QMUL (London Westminster):
CON 33 (-3)
LAB 50 (+9)
LD 11 (-3)
UKIP 3 (-3)
GRN 2 (-1)
26th-31st May
N~1,000
#GE20170 -
Watch to see what Wollygog does with his £500 Ladbrokes balance?logical_song said:
I know what you're saying, Trump/Brexit were unexpected results.SeanT said:
This feels terrible. This feels like YouGov is right, and the Tories are gonna lose seats.Freggles said:
This feels like Trump, this feels like Brexit.
Labour are now 5/1 to have most seats....
However, the Brexit and Trump results were in one direction politically, Rthe resulkts for Rutte in Holland and Macron (and not Le Pen) were in the opposite direction. If May fails to get her landslide that feels to me like a move in the Macron direction rather than that of Trump/Brexit.0 -
I wouldn't listen to captain kneejerk, you stumble through each day like a scared toddler.SeanT said:
Delusional. Look at what's happening in front of your eyes.Brom said:London is going to end up like Remain. Meaningless votes piled up, while the Tories take Twickenham, Richmond and Sutton.
The Tories are going to comfortably take Sutton.
What's going on in front of my eyes is a lot of bedwetting on the internet but ordinary folk finding Corbyn toxic. People always underestimate the Conservatives but they will have the best data and will be all over vote efficiency.0 -
Or they don't think that Brexit will appeal to what (I assume) was a heavily Remain voting constituency.Cyclefree said:Anecdote alert:
In Hampstead and Kilburn Labour won last time with a very small majority. The Lib Dems were a long long way behind. So this is a marginal where the Tories really should be confident of winning and should be putting some effort into.
And yet the only party that I can see regularly leafleting etc are the Lib Dems who have absolutely no chance here unless something amazing happens. The Tories sent a leaflet once at the very start. The Labour MP actually bothered to canvass and was personally impressive. Either the Tories think it in the bag or they are focusing their efforts elsewhere in the constituency or they are being useless/complacent.
For comparison in Westminster North - 2 Tory leaflets, 2 Theresa May Party letters, 1 Tory canvass, 1 Labour leaflet and nothing from anyone else0 -
Blimey - I wonder if Julian Assange would mind sharing a bedroom in the Ecuador embassy..?Scott_P said:0 -
Orange is the new purple?0
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0
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The Tories are currently led by a paralyzed control freak. They have the reflexes and nibble footwork of an arthritic brontosaurus.TravelJunkie said:0 -
Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.0 -
Both YouGov and Survation use the self-reported turnout model. ICM & ComRes use historical data .... I think.IanB2 said:
Wasn't that Survation?RobD said:
I thought the whole reason for the difference between the polls was because YouGov used self-reported turnout, whereas ICM uses historical data?Chris said:One other point about the "controversial YouGov model". It bases turnout for different socio-economic groups on data from 2010 and 2015. If there were a Corbyn effect increasing turnout among groups where it is historically low, the YouGov model would miss it. (On the other hand, of course they are saying that the model correctly projected a "Leave" victory in the referendum.)
WillS.0 -
This polling is turning into a horror show. Never mind landslides. Never mind gaining seats. The focus is now on whether Theresa can cling on to what Dave managed.0
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Not exactly surprising. He was hardly off RT.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile, the latest YouGov London poll:
best PM: Corbyn 37%, May 34%;
VI, compared with a month ago:
LAB 50% (+9), CON 33% (-3)0 -
Makes Ilford North a potentially attractive bet for Labour at 13/8, in from 3/1Sean_F said:
It would equate to shares of Lab 38%, Con 37% nationwide.SeanT said:
If that repeats across the UK it's Prime Minister Corbyn.Scott_P said:NCPoliticsUK: YouGov/QMUL (London Westminster):
CON 33 (-3)
LAB 50 (+9)
LD 11 (-3)
UKIP 3 (-3)
GRN 2 (-1)
26th-31st May
N~1,000
#GE2017
That suggests that the Conservatives are performing significantly better outside of the capital.0 -
By polling you mean YouGov?Stark_Dawning said:This polling is turning into a horror show. Never mind landslides. Never mind gaining seats. The focus is now on whether Theresa can cling on to what Dave managed.
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It's fun to watch.JohnO said:Oh well, it IS wobbly Thursday. Sea-sickness reigns on pbc. Twas ever thus.
All will be well. It really will.
Mrs May will win a majority. The only question is the size.0 -
Was it? Finding it difficult to focus on the storyGIN1138 said:0 -
Isn't the issue that a LVT is - or might be perceived to be - a wealth tax and therefore will be seen as resulting in large tax increases for everyone owning a home?oldpolitics said:
Is it because gardens aren't developable land so would pay a minute amount of tax, and the whole critique is in fact bollocks driven by Tory developers and rentiers desperate to protect their cashcows and landbanks? Better get "garden tax" through to 10% of voters who are genuinely worried than make a top issue of it and get it through to 50% of voters, but with the added information that it's a lie?rottenborough said:Telegraph:
"If the misnamed Tory dementia tax damaged May, Labour’s infinitely more radical Garden Tax would annihilate Jeremy Corbyn – if only the middle classes were aware of it. So why, oh why, are the Tories not making more of it? Why is it not on every piece of literature?"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/31/labours-brutal-garden-tax-would-confiscate-middle-englands-wealth/
Any sensible campaign should be putting Labour on the spot about exactly what they mean by this.0 -
and hillary campaigned in Arizona, the tories data could be wrong.TravelJunkie said:0 -
The freighter Dolmatova was seen docking at Thanet this morning.TheScreamingEagles said:Orange is the new purple?
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http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/three-minutes-of-nothing-herald-reporter-reflects-on-pm-encounter/story-30363961-detail/story.html
The Herald: Two visits in six weeks to one of the country’s most marginal constituencies – is she getting worried?
May: I’m very clear that this is a crucial election for this country.
TH: Plymouth is feeling the effects of military cuts. Will she guarantee to protect the city from further pain?
M: I’m very clear that Plymouth has a proud record of connection with the armed forces.
TH: How will your Brexit plan make Plymouth better off?
M: I think there is a better future ahead for Plymouth and for the whole of the UK.
TH: Will you promise to sort out our transport links?
M: I’m very clear that connectivity is hugely important for Plymouth and the south-west generally.
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An orange kipper? or is it all a red herring?TheScreamingEagles said:
But we have a very one sided extradition treaty with the States.Slackbladder said:Nige cancelling his trip to Florida. No way he's stepping on US soil for a while.
Will Nigel Farage look good in orange?
My humble apologies!0 -
Stark_Dawning said:
This polling is turning into a horror show. Never mind landslides. Never mind gaining seats. The focus is now on whether Theresa can cling on to what Dave managed.
Precisely. If we had Panelbase releasing 10 polls a week I'm sure the narrative would be rather different.RobD said:
By polling you mean YouGov?Stark_Dawning said:This polling is turning into a horror show. Never mind landslides. Never mind gaining seats. The focus is now on whether Theresa can cling on to what Dave managed.
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Exactly! It was hardly brilliant insight, was it?!rottenborough said:0 -
But it's YouGov. If Momentum has gamed them, then you would expect this result to be seriously magnified in London where the plurality of Labour members are....Scott_P said:NCPoliticsUK: YouGov/QMUL (London Westminster):
CON 33 (-3)
LAB 50 (+9)
LD 11 (-3)
UKIP 3 (-3)
GRN 2 (-1)
26th-31st May
N~1,000
#GE2017
If....
If not, then yeah, it looks like an uphill battle for the Conservatives in the capital. Corbyn was always going to get his appeal magnified in London. And the polling would have to look like this under YouGov, what with them saying Battersea leans Labour....0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Orange is the new purple?
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A Corbyn victory all hinges on whether one sexy manifesto, and one huge Tory manifesto fuck-up, combined with May being a bit nervous, boring and robotic (rather Queen Elizabeth I) is enough to overturn the leadership and economy ratings, all the evidence of the electoral results over the last few months, and all our assumptions about swingback.Sean_F said:
It would equate to shares of Lab 38%, Con 37% nationwide.SeanT said:
If that repeats across the UK it's Prime Minister Corbyn.Scott_P said:NCPoliticsUK: YouGov/QMUL (London Westminster):
CON 33 (-3)
LAB 50 (+9)
LD 11 (-3)
UKIP 3 (-3)
GRN 2 (-1)
26th-31st May
N~1,000
#GE2017
That suggests that the Conservatives are performing significantly better outside of the capital.
Maybe. Maybe not. Personally the sense I get from my Tory friends is exasperation, but they'll still be voting Tory.
I don't doubt Corbyn has seen huge surges with the under 30s, and may even be close to level in the 35-45 bracket, but he is still massively behind with the over 55s.
Brexit won because it had those demographics, plus peeled off enough younger ABs and enough WWC voters to carry it over the line.
Corbyn doesn't have that.0 -
Train hard, fight easy. But some just aren't up to it. She has no mettle. That was clear not from her absence at the debate in Cambridge (which may have been a result of Labour's outwitting and wrongfooting of the crap planners at CCHQ), but above all from how she looked afterwards when reporters put it to her that she'd chickened out. She couldn't cope. She is on the verge of cracking up. "I'm strong" and all that...but deep down she knows she's a lump of poo. On a human level I feel sorry for her. But nobody made her go into politics. What's bad for the Tory party is good for the country.Casino_Royale said:If I were May i'd be training and practicing like a mother fucker for the BBC QT session on Friday night. Practice, test. Practice, test. Feedback. Practice, practice, test. Come out pumped up and fighting.
She won't be, and won't.0 -
Mr T,
There you go again, whimpering like a whipped cur when the flak arrives. Just like you did shortly after Brexit won. Yes, May is shite at politics and Jezza has managed to keep his temper and do his tie up properly - but it's not the end of the world.
We will hit an economic whirlwind when Corbyn takes over and he'll blame it totally on Brexit. I suspect they're practicing their lines already, but it will be interesting. Look on the sunny side.0 -
LOL Have they even got a hat?kjohnw said:The Tories had better have some bloody big rabbits to pull out of the hat in this last week or we are all screwed. I keep hoping the events since the Tory manifesto launch are just a nightmare I am having and I will wake up and find TM still has a twenty point lead heading for a landslide with a strategy and a manifesto that is well thought out......then reality dawns and the cliff is approaching fast
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The actual movement in votes over that month is in line with Yougov generally. It's just that London is now a heavily Labour city. If you look at the graphic, the relative standing of the parties hasn't changed since the weekend of the dementia tax row.Cyan said:
Not exactly surprising. He was hardly off RT.Scott_P said:
Meanwhile, the latest YouGov London poll:
best PM: Corbyn 37%, May 34%;
VI, compared with a month ago:
LAB 50% (+9), CON 33% (-3)0 -
Good heavens, a pre-voting SeanT panic and bedwetting session, I am sure we have never had one of those before.... well aside from BrExit, and GE2015, GE2010....SeanT said:
This feels terrible. This feels like YouGov is right, and the Tories are gonna lose seats.Freggles said:
This feels like Trump, this feels like Brexit.
Labour are now 5/1 to have most seats....
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https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/870236498595127298
As an aside, every time Osborne Tweets one of these cartoons, despite the handle of the cartoonist being included, a number of people complain to Osborne, and the cartoonist replies "I drew it, not him". Every time.0 -
Maybe she has had enough and wants to be out walking the hills on 9th June instead of assembling a new Cabinet.Scott_P said:Read it. And weep...
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/870248189118566401
This is beyond bonkers to raise all grammar school dreaming that at this stage.
She should be hammering Labour over the economy and tax from dawn til dusk.0 -
OMG
Britain Elects @britainelects 12m12 minutes ago
More
London Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 50% (+9)
CON: 33% (-3)
LDEM: 11% (-3)
UKIP: 3% (-3)
GRN: 2 (-1)
(via @YouGov / 26 - 31 May)0 -
The Justin tip of a Lab gain in Needs NW looks like a good one.nunu said:0 -
This poll simply demonstrates that London's politics have become very different to those of the rest of the country.Casino_Royale said:
A Corbyn victory all hinges on whether one sexy manifesto, and one huge Tory manifesto fuck-up, combined with May being a bit nervous, boring and robotic (rather Queen Elizabeth I) is enough to overturn the leadership and economy ratings, all the evidence of the electoral results over the last few months, and all our assumptions about swingback.Sean_F said:
It would equate to shares of Lab 38%, Con 37% nationwide.SeanT said:
If that repeats across the UK it's Prime Minister Corbyn.Scott_P said:NCPoliticsUK: YouGov/QMUL (London Westminster):
CON 33 (-3)
LAB 50 (+9)
LD 11 (-3)
UKIP 3 (-3)
GRN 2 (-1)
26th-31st May
N~1,000
#GE2017
That suggests that the Conservatives are performing significantly better outside of the capital.
Maybe. Maybe not. Personally the sense I get from my Tory friends is exasperation, but they'll still be voting Tory.
I don't doubt Corbyn has seen huge surges with the under 30s, and may even be close to level in the 35-45 bracket, but he is still massively behind with the over 55s.
Brexit won because it had those demographics, plus peeled off enough younger ABs and enough WWC voters to carry it over the line.
Corbyn doesn't have that.0 -
@hansmollman: "Everytime a child says 'I don't believe in fairies' there is a a little fairy somewhere that falls down dead." https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/8702486438692003840
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Yes. This campaign was supposed to cement Jezza's image as an IRA volunteer, jihadist and social miscreant; instead he's come across as an affable old grandad. Even if the Tories just scrape it, Labour will be perfectly placed for 'one last heave' in 2022. The Tories have put themselves on death row.SeanT said:
Look at that Sky voxpop from Bridgend, Wales. People DON'T find Corbyn toxic. They find him surprisingly human and empathetic (I disagree, but these are the reports); they also like free stuff. Also, they've REALLY gone off Theresa, and given that "Theresa is better than Jeremy" was the essence of the Tory campaign, that ain't good.Brom said:
I wouldn't listen to captain kneejerk, you stumble through each day like a scared toddler.SeanT said:
Delusional. Look at what's happening in front of your eyes.Brom said:London is going to end up like Remain. Meaningless votes piled up, while the Tories take Twickenham, Richmond and Sutton.
The Tories are going to comfortably take Sutton.
What's going on in front of my eyes is a lot of bedwetting on the internet but ordinary folk finding Corbyn toxic. People always underestimate the Conservatives but they will have the best data and will be all over vote efficiency.
You may, however, be right about the Tory data and voter efficiency; I have no idea.0 -
Nope. But I was eating breakfast and didn't fancy typing that muchCD13 said:Mr Charles,
"Interest of 1.5% is a very big assumption."
They also assume the profits from the nationalised industries will pay off that interest. That assumes they will carry on making profits. But given that Labour will increase the payroll (they always do), and increasing demand in these industries is unlikely - given that they are basic services, and increasing prices will be too uncomfortable, that only leaves extra borrowing.
Nationalised services tend to be run for the workers, not the customers - the few not the many - so although it's a nice idea, it doesn't add up economically. Getting rid of shareholders sounds good but ...
I'm no economist, I was a scientist, so perhaps I've got this all wrong?0 -
Labour are at 5-2 to hold Enfield North.0
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This has to be it. She doesn't want to be PM any more. It is the only explanation. Why campaign on Grammar schools when they poll badly? Why? Why?rottenborough said:
Maybe she has had enough and wants to be out walking the hills on 9th June instead of assembling a new Cabinet.Scott_P said:Read it. And weep...
https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/870248189118566401
This is beyond bonkers to raise all grammar school dreaming that at this stage.
She should be hammering Labour over the economy and tax from dawn til dusk.
Please someone tell me what the hell is going on?0 -
Only connect! That was the whole of her sermon.TravelJunkie said:http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/three-minutes-of-nothing-herald-reporter-reflects-on-pm-encounter/story-30363961-detail/story.html
The Herald: Two visits in six weeks to one of the country’s most marginal constituencies – is she getting worried?
May: I’m very clear that this is a crucial election for this country.
TH: Plymouth is feeling the effects of military cuts. Will she guarantee to protect the city from further pain?
M: I’m very clear that Plymouth has a proud record of connection with the armed forces.
TH: How will your Brexit plan make Plymouth better off?
M: I think there is a better future ahead for Plymouth and for the whole of the UK.
TH: Will you promise to sort out our transport links?
M: I’m very clear that connectivity is hugely important for Plymouth and the south-west generally.0 -
Who writes May's speeches? The content is decent enough to begin with but then she repeats herself a number of times at the end.0
