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System · June 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » More worrying numbers for Team Theresa as doubts amongst punters rise

TMay's lead over Corbyn on YouGov "Best PM" tracker has dropped 25 points in past 2 months pic.twitter.com/olqsZ74eSp

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Fenster · June 2017

First like JC.

nunu · June 2017

The yougov best pm rating of 43-30% to May feels like where we are.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · June 2017

Rounds of the podium

Fenster · June 2017

As I mentioned yesterday. Churchill coined 'the glare of the hot probing eye' about the TV campaigning age.

May, sadly, has wilted under its glare. Corbyn looks as though he's started to enjoy himself*.

*It must be quite nice for Corbyn. He's had buckets of shite poured over his head for the previous 20 months. Whatever happens, he'll feel like he's won a certain degree of respect, and May will feel like she's lost a lot of it.

AlastairMeeks · June 2017

Self-praise is no praise and all that, but:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/01/15/analysing-the-best-prime-minister-polling/

"there is at least the possibility that Theresa May’s poll ratings flatter to deceive"

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · June 2017

It's looking increasingly likely that JC will hang onto the leadership regardless of the seat numbers next week.

Ishmael_Z · June 2017

There was some pond life here the other day speculating about the extent of the PM's appetite for sex. I thought it didn't get any nastier than that, but 100% ignorant speculation about the very recent death of a politician's 93 year old father wins at a canter. Euchhh. It's the sort of stuff you used to get on Guido before he banned non-registered commenters.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2017

I thought Dave was a lucky general.

Mrs May is even luckier with her opponents being Leadsom and Corbyn.

GIN1138 · June 2017

FPT

DecrepitJohnL said:

DanSmith said:

JackW said:

dyedwoolie said:
Iain Dale really pissed off with Yasmin Alibhai Brown saying sending Rudd was cruel because her father had died. Dale says I KNOW she was given the choice and it's what her father would have wanted, that's why she did it.
When the PM gives you the "choice" of doing their bidding or opting out, it's hardly likely you'll say no. In any event the PM, knowing Rudd's situation should have simply have excused her. Rudd had a valid excuse, the Prime Minister didn't.

We have a choice between a "Poundshop Prime Minister" in May and a "Bankrupt Stock LotO" in Jezza.
Some choice ....
Don't talk rubbish, you have no idea what the personal situations involved here are. Quite frankly I think it's a bit offensive to suggest the PM, no matter how hopeless she is, would either directly or indirectly force anyone to work in that situation.

It was Rudd's call.
Even allowing Amber Rudd agreed to take part, who precisely was twisting the Prime Minister's arm not to and what should we infer of May's character -- that she allowed herself to be browbeaten by a media adviser in a shiny suit or that she wimped out?

Theresa May didn't want to do the debate. That was her choice.

I happen to think general election TV debates are terrible and never really agreed with them even back in 2010 so I'm pleased that Theresa May stuck to her guns on this rather than dancing to the broadcasters tune.

The media and broadcasters want debates for their own entertainment and amusement but it has very little to do with governing.

The fact the entire fate of the nation for the following five years now seems to boil down to who performs best in a 90 minute TV debate seems ludicrous to me...

Unfortunately it seems we're stuck with them but all leaders should have the right not to do them if they want.

isam · June 2017

"While the man in the pub will generally quite bluntly say who he (always) votes for when asked, the politically engaged find such partisan loyalty an affront to critical thinking - being seen to be "undecided" is a badge of honour, it shows they are a serious person. They admire intellectual reasoning and put a high price on their vote, so when the chance comes to answer questions on how they think and why, it's like giving someone a big line of cocaine and asking them to talk about themselves. Political obsessives are the material of opinion polls, but not the fabric of the nation. It could be that in showing off about doing their homework, giving the "clever" answer rather than what they actually intend to do, they are making the polls less accurate"

http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/

Pulpstar · June 2017

This is the biggy:

Friday 2 June, 8.30pm, BBC1 – Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn BBC Question Time special

RobD · June 2017

Pulpstar said:
This is the biggy:

Friday 2 June, 8.30pm, BBC1 – Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn BBC Question Time special

45 minutes each, right?

Toms · June 2017

Just wondering.
Just wondering: do we have any "Banksys" on Brexit or Trump or this election?

dyedwoolie · June 2017

Repeated from previous thread. Attacking May over Rudd's father is akin to the Sun over Brown's handwritten condolence letter. Step too far and will not go down well.

Ishmael_Z · June 2017

Pulpstar said:
This is the biggy:

Friday 2 June, 8.30pm, BBC1 – Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn BBC Question Time special

That was what scuppered ed. A week ago I would have thought the likely scupperee was Corbyn...

I hope ComRes have been fired from the audeience selection job.

MarqueeMark · June 2017

Caveat: it's YouGov.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2017

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's looking increasingly likely that JC will hang onto the leadership regardless of the seat numbers next week.

Will we get another Labour leadership election this summer?

I hope not, I've got a very busy summer!

glw · June 2017

GIN1138 said:
Theresa May didn't want to do the debate. That was her choice.

I happen to think general election TV debates are terrible and never really agreed with them even back in 2010 so I'm pleased that Theresa May stuck to her guns on this rather than dancing to the broadcasters tune.

The media and broadcasters want debates for their own entertainment and amusement but it has very little to do with governing.

The debates are rubbish. Andrew Neil grilling them for an hour or so is much more enlightening. But the TV news people love the debates, because it makes them feel their election coverage has some purpose.

MaxPB · June 2017

FPT:

David_Evershed said:

stodge said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/870208198262886400
It's clear some on here would like nothing better than to see the LDs turfed out of Parliament completely but everyone within the Party knows it's going to be a dog fight to save what we can.

The nadir in terms of seats and votes was 2.8% and 6 seats in 1951 followed by 7.5% and 6 seats in 1970. I suspect we won't go below the 1951 vote share but there's a real danger the party could be left with 1-3 MPs.

Would that be the end ? Hardly.

Once the Conservatives lurch into the long spell of mid-term unpopularity, there'll be plenty of council seats to take and constituencies to rebuild - looking forward to it.

Greens and UKIP survived with one or no MPs.

The Greens and UKIP had a very easy cause to rally around. Easy for people to understand and vote for. UKIP also had one of the best peacetime politicians leading them for the last 15 years. Like him or loathe him, Nigel has changed the face of this country.

The LDs are led by an over promoted parish councillor and their idea of liberalism isn't as easy to grasp. Especially today when liberal can be the SJW movement or even George Osborne.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2017

MarqueeMark said:
Caveat: it's YouGov.

But the trend is being shown with other pollsters too.

FF43 · June 2017

The Conservatives will win on current data. The only question is how much by. The middle prediction is the most likely, which means a very comfortable increase in their majority. A landslide is also possible, as is a loss of its overall majority.

williamglenn · June 2017

GIN1138 said:
I happen to think general election TV debates are terrible and never really agreed with them even back in 2010 so I'm pleased that Theresa May stuck to her guns on this rather than dancing to the broadcasters tune.

We should collectively try to come up with a better format. The final head-to-head debates in the French Presidential election with a fairly free form discussion with both candidates across a table works well, but wouldn't usually be appropriate for a parliamentary system. Personally I'd love to see all the party leaders in an After Dark style debate with no audience.

DecrepitJohnL · June 2017

An interesting factor in the podcast on the previous thread was that voters remember the bad parts of the Conservative manifesto and the good parts of Labour's. Ironically, one pundit then advised the Tories to go negative! Surely what Theresa May needs to do is to show us her path to the broad, sunlit uplands.

TOPPING · June 2017

No offence to us punters, but what on earth do punters know more than anyone else?

As mentioned many times, we are supposed to be political uber-geeks and we fight like cats in a sack over any particular political outcome. There's no reason for "the betting markets" to be any more insightful than us lot.

RobD · June 2017

DecrepitJohnL said:
An interesting factor in the podcast on the previous thread was that voters remember the bad parts of the Conservative manifesto and the good parts of Labour's. Ironically, one pundit then advised the Tories to go negative! Surely what Theresa May needs to do is to show us her path to the broad, sunlit uplands.

It's impossible to compete with Labour on that front since they are promising everything to everyone.

Alice_Aforethought · June 2017

FPT:

MaxPB said:
» show previous quotes
Yes, and they can't even count all higher rate payers since they have said it will be people earning £80k+ that will take the hit, there are surely fewer than 1m of them in the whole country. This is why they are looking at garden taxes and other such revenue raising measures, the capacity to raise that much money from so few (highly mobile) people doesn't exist.
Indeed.

According to https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/595165/NS_Table_3_1a_1415.xlsx

only the top 3% of taxpayers earned more than £80k in 2014-5. Probably that is much the same today.

According to https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/616434/Table_2.1.xlsx

there are 30.3 million taxpayers.

So that's 0.9 million individuals on £80k or above, the average amount above being £42k.

If you took that entire £42k off every one of them - so that in effective you had a national maximum wage of £80k enforced / implemented via a 100% income tax rate above that - you would raise £38 billion. That would not be enough to close the deficit from where we are, never mind if we also started spending more.

And of course if you tried to do this you would not raise a penny because if you are taxed at 100% above £x you will decline pay rises above £x.

The bald fact is that the "rich" don't have enough income to pay for everything, which is why any government wanting to spend more would either have to take from them in addition whatever they have left of previous income, = wealth taxes, or of course expropriate people on less and less money. Or both.

I suspect that what Corbyn and McDonnell would do is borrow the money and then default on the repayments on the basis that bankers are crooks.

MaxPB · June 2017

Maybe Theresa is going for the long con, reducing expectations to nil and then coming out in blistering form tomorrow night.

brokenwheel · June 2017

MarqueeMark said:
Caveat: it's YouGov.

Since we are talking about the variation between pollsters ICM/Sun on Sunday had a 21 point lead 48%/27%.

MarqueeMark · June 2017

TOPPING said:
No offence to us punters, but what on earth do punters know more than anyone else?

As mentioned many times, we are supposed to be political uber-geeks and we fight like cats in a sack over any particular political outcome. There's no reason for "the betting markets" to be any more insightful than us lot.

There's every reason for them to get far more jittery far more quickly. They have money at stake.

I sometimes think some on here are castigating Theresa May for not getting a nailed on three-figuree majority, because she has just cost them a holiday to the Maldives. How dare she!!

RobD · June 2017

MaxPB said:
Maybe Theresa is going for the long con, reducing expectations to nil and then coming out in blistering form tomorrow night.

Well they do say peaking to soon is bad!

Carolus_Rex · June 2017

TOPPING said:
No offence to us punters, but what on earth do punters know more than anyone else?

As mentioned many times, we are supposed to be political uber-geeks and we fight like cats in a sack over any particular political outcome. There's no reason for "the betting markets" to be any more insightful than us lot.

If the betting markets were right all the time then none of us would make any money.

MarqueeMark · June 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:
Caveat: it's YouGov.
But the trend is being shown with other pollsters too.

But not to the same degree.

Pulpstar · June 2017

The Question Time is from York:

According to the leaks, Question Time will come live from the Ron Cooke Hub on the Heslington East campus of the University of York.

A demonstration is planned, hosted by York People’s Assembly – “a movement for democracy and social justice at a time of falling living standards”.

They'll all be cheering for Corbyn. Nothing gets people behind the Tories like the rag tag placard waving unruly left.

PeterMannion · June 2017

Irreparable damage to Tezza

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · June 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's looking increasingly likely that JC will hang onto the leadership regardless of the seat numbers next week.
Will we get another Labour leadership election this summer?

I hope not, I've got a very busy summer!

JC is outperforming the initial expectations of him by a country mile in this campaign.
It will all come down to getting the McDonnell amendment through conference before Jezza goes anywhere.

DecrepitJohnL · June 2017

RobD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:
An interesting factor in the podcast on the previous thread was that voters remember the bad parts of the Conservative manifesto and the good parts of Labour's. Ironically, one pundit then advised the Tories to go negative! Surely what Theresa May needs to do is to show us her path to the broad, sunlit uplands.
It's impossible to compete with Labour on that front since they are promising everything to everyone.

Actually, Labour's costed manifesto is surprisingly cautious. It is the uncosted Conservative one that is the pig in the poke. You might disagree with Labour's costings and assumptions and priorities but at least they are there.

isam · June 2017

TOPPING said:
No offence to us punters, but what on earth do punters know more than anyone else?

As mentioned many times, we are supposed to be political uber-geeks and we fight like cats in a sack over any particular political outcome. There's no reason for "the betting markets" to be any more insightful than us lot.

"Before GE 2015 the polls had the Conservatives and Labour vying for the lead. The narrative amongst betting experts was that No Overall Majority was "free money", even at prohibitive odds, and the media dismissed talk of either party winning a majority, busying themselves with the permutations of the incoming coalition. At 10pm on election night, the exit poll had the Conservatives as the largest party by some margin, and early next morning it was confirmed that David Cameron's Blues had racked up 331 seats, commanding a majority in the House. The coalition calculations were rendered redundant, the NOM money was lost. Ed Miliband never had a hope."

http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/

logical_song · June 2017

MaxPB said:
Maybe Theresa is going for the long con, reducing expectations to nil and then coming out in blistering form tomorrow night.

"Maybe Theresa" might be doing that I suppose. Not sure why she would.

Pulpstar · June 2017

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's looking increasingly likely that JC will hang onto the leadership regardless of the seat numbers next week.
Will we get another Labour leadership election this summer?

I hope not, I've got a very busy summer!
JC is outperforming the initial expectations of him by a country mile in this campaign.
It will all come down to getting the McDonnell amendment through conference before Jezza goes anywhere.

The Tories need to ditch May if McDonnell ever gets in charge, he'll marmalise her in a campaign. Particularly after we've either got a god awful or no deal from the EU.

dyedwoolie · June 2017

Sky's latest hysterical coverage of the digital election features a digitised shadow figure acting as a puppeteer on the digitised voters below. The digital strings are a lovely shade of Tory blue.
Boulton talking about the election being fought out of sight. Conspiracy Much?

Ishmael_Z · June 2017

PeterMannion said:
Irreparable damage to Tezza

There has been? There will be? Consisting of?

stodge · June 2017

MaxPB said:
Maybe Theresa is going for the long con, reducing expectations to nil and then coming out in blistering form tomorrow night.

Theresa May has given loads of reasons for not voting Labour but very little reasons FOR voting Conservative apart from voting for her personally.

If you like her, fine, that may be enough but if you don't like her or warm to her or have any confidence in her why vote Conservative ?

OTOH you have Corbyn who has been eviscerated by the Press but comes over as a reasonable avuncular man who seems to this observer to be channelling his inner Harold Wilson.

We had that intriguing year from 1975 to 1976 when Margaret Thatcher faced Harold Wilson across the Despatch Box. Wilson was a superb political operator who won four elections, three against Heath. I think an election between Thatcher and Wilson would have been a political master class.

RobD · June 2017

DecrepitJohnL said:

RobD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:
An interesting factor in the podcast on the previous thread was that voters remember the bad parts of the Conservative manifesto and the good parts of Labour's. Ironically, one pundit then advised the Tories to go negative! Surely what Theresa May needs to do is to show us her path to the broad, sunlit uplands.
It's impossible to compete with Labour on that front since they are promising everything to everyone.
Actually, Labour's costed manifesto is surprisingly cautious. It is the uncosted Conservative one that is the pig in the poke. You might disagree with Labour's costings and assumptions and priorities but at least they are there.

Surprisingly cautious? They don't even include the cost to the exchequer of re-nationalisation, let alone their overoptimistic predictions from how much revenue their tax hikes will bring in..

TravelJunkie · June 2017

According to electoral calculus. Tory gains in West Midlands.
Birmingham Edgbaston (agree)
Wolverhampton South West (agree)
Walsall North (don't know)
Birmingham Northfield (don't know)
Stoke-on-Trent North (labour hold)
Stoke-on-Trent South (labour hold)
Newcastle-under-Lyme (agree)

I can't see the tories winning any of the seats in Stoke. I think Coventry could be better but if the labour vote share is 33% at the minimum it will be difficult to see any of the seats in Stoke/Coventry falling. Question is; if the seats aren't coming from the west midlands where are the 80 tory gains for a landslide.

Slackbladder · June 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's looking increasingly likely that JC will hang onto the leadership regardless of the seat numbers next week.
Will we get another Labour leadership election this summer?

I hope not, I've got a very busy summer!

We could have a labour leadership battle and a tory one! Or another election if the numbers fall that way!

TheScreamingEagles · June 2017

Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.

Toms · June 2017

TOPPING said:
No offence to us punters, but what on earth do punters know more than anyone else?

As mentioned many times, we are supposed to be political uber-geeks and we fight like cats in a sack over any particular political outcome. There's no reason for "the betting markets" to be any more insightful than us lot.

Driven by profit and loss? Just like Capitalism?

Slackbladder · June 2017

RobD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

RobD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:
An interesting factor in the podcast on the previous thread was that voters remember the bad parts of the Conservative manifesto and the good parts of Labour's. Ironically, one pundit then advised the Tories to go negative! Surely what Theresa May needs to do is to show us her path to the broad, sunlit uplands.
It's impossible to compete with Labour on that front since they are promising everything to everyone.
Actually, Labour's costed manifesto is surprisingly cautious. It is the uncosted Conservative one that is the pig in the poke. You might disagree with Labour's costings and assumptions and priorities but at least they are there.
Surprisingly cautious? They don't even include the cost to the exchequer of re-nationalisation, let alone their overoptimistic predictions from how much revenue their tax hikes will bring in..

And that's before all the unions come out, wanting 5% pay rises (and back pay).

MaxPB · June 2017

logical_song said:

MaxPB said:
Maybe Theresa is going for the long con, reducing expectations to nil and then coming out in blistering form tomorrow night.
"Maybe Theresa" might be doing that I suppose. Not sure why she would.

Me neither, just a theory. More likely she's just crap. I'd like to point people back to a couple of weeks ago when the manifesto came out and both SeanT and I were certain it was going to go down very poorly and I questioned Theresa's political antenna, I think we've been vindicated since then.

MonikerDiCanio · June 2017

Pulpstar said:
This is the biggy:

Friday 2 June, 8.30pm, BBC1 – Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn BBC Question Time special

" Stop the trot " panic stations. May's dancing to Jezza's tune.

Pulpstar · June 2017

TravelJunkie said:
According to electoral calculus. Tory gains in West Midlands.
Birmingham Edgbaston (agree)
Wolverhampton South West (agree)
Walsall North (don't know)
Birmingham Northfield (don't know)
Stoke-on-Trent North (labour hold)
Stoke-on-Trent South (labour hold)
Newcastle-under-Lyme (agree)

I can't see the tories winning any of the seats in Stoke. I think Coventry could be better but if the labour vote share is 33% at the minimum it will be difficult to see any of the seats in Stoke/Coventry falling. Question is; if the seats aren't coming from the west midlands where are the 80 tory gains for a landslide.

Stoke South will go I think. Coventry South is tricky - I can see NW going blue but not south due to St Michaels ward coming out for Corbyn.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2017

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's looking increasingly likely that JC will hang onto the leadership regardless of the seat numbers next week.
Will we get another Labour leadership election this summer?

I hope not, I've got a very busy summer!
We could have a labour leadership battle and a tory one! Or another election if the numbers fall that way!

But for Leadsom we nearly had both parties running concurrent leadership elections.

JackW · June 2017

MaxPB said:
Maybe Theresa is going for the long con, reducing expectations to nil and then coming out in blistering form tomorrow night.

After the Sky/Channel 4 Leaders QT that might appear to be a "bold" strategy.

Richard_Nabavi · June 2017

DecrepitJohnL said:
Actually, Labour's costed manifesto is surprisingly cautious.

Thanks for the laugh of the morning!

PeterMannion · June 2017

Ishmael_Z said:

PeterMannion said:
Irreparable damage to Tezza
There has been? There will be? Consisting of?

There has been, her reputation won't fully recover from this election, even though I think she will still win fairly comfortably.

She's now seen as weaker, flip-flopping, unreliable and frit, as well as unimpressive as a person.

The election that was supposed to strengthen her will, if anything, have had the opposite impact.

All IMO, of course...

Ishmael_Z · June 2017

House prices fell again in May, Nationwide says

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40117132

Third successive month, not happened since 2009

In 6 months time we may be saying how clever of TMay to get a 30 seat majority now and postpone the recession-related shellacking she was due in 2020.

TravelJunkie · June 2017

I've got around £1500 to spend on some bets and I want to bet on seats with value.

Any suggestions/tips?

Any possibility that labour regain some seats from the SNP in Glasgow as they have more traditional labour policies that would appeal to them??
Any value bets that liberal democrats win a seat from the conservatives in the west country?
Any value bets that conservatives win seats in London?
Any dark horse value bets would be greatly appreciated?

Ishmael_Z · June 2017

PeterMannion said:

Ishmael_Z said:

PeterMannion said:
Irreparable damage to Tezza
There has been? There will be? Consisting of?
There has been, her reputation won't fully recover from this election, even though I think she will still win fairly comfortably.

She's now seen as weaker, flip-flopping, unreliable and frit, as well as unimpressive as a person.

The election that was supposed to strengthen her will, if anything, have had the opposite impact.

All IMO, of course...

Agree with all that.

williamglenn · June 2017

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's looking increasingly likely that JC will hang onto the leadership regardless of the seat numbers next week.
Will we get another Labour leadership election this summer?

I hope not, I've got a very busy summer!
We could have a labour leadership battle and a tory one! Or another election if the numbers fall that way!

We could have a unity government with a PM 'suggested' by Brussels. Someone with experience in the Commission and at the heart of UK government. Perhaps a member of the Lords?

philiph · June 2017

Fenster said:
As I mentioned yesterday. Churchill coined 'the glare of the hot probing eye' about the TV campaigning age.

May, sadly, has wilted under its glare. Corbyn looks as though he's started to enjoy himself*.

*It must be quite nice for Corbyn. He's had buckets of shite poured over his head for the previous 20 months. Whatever happens, he'll feel like he's won a certain degree of respect, and May will feel like she's lost a lot of it.

As I said the other day, it is a format where he is in his comfort zone, he has be repeatedly pushed into his comfort zone and has been able to spend hours talking on subjects where he is authentic using arguments he has held for decades.

allowing him to major on an area where he comes over as honest (they are his views) and authentic will inevitably have a positive effect on his position, even if a majority of people disagree with the message (and most will not absorb the full message). Authenticity is popular.

Wilson had it, Thatcher had it, Smith had it, Blair had it in early days, Cameron had it for a while, and Clegg too, and probably Kinnock.
Heath, Major, Brown, Milliband, May, Farron to name a few do not come over in that way.

I can see a chance that May will emulate Major, one victory snatched from the jaws of defeat (something of a shock from the starting point!). However in this instance I would be shocked if she lasted as long as a 2022 election. She will be replaced within 18 months of Brexit deadline of March 2019, allowing a refreshed and rejuvenated leader to fight 2022.

RobD · June 2017

williamglenn said:

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's looking increasingly likely that JC will hang onto the leadership regardless of the seat numbers next week.
Will we get another Labour leadership election this summer?

I hope not, I've got a very busy summer!
We could have a labour leadership battle and a tory one! Or another election if the numbers fall that way!
We could have a unity government with a PM 'suggested' by Brussels. Someone with experience in the Commission and at the heart of UK government. Perhaps a member of the Lords?

Brussels can bugger right off

Slackbladder · June 2017

williamglenn said:

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's looking increasingly likely that JC will hang onto the leadership regardless of the seat numbers next week.
Will we get another Labour leadership election this summer?

I hope not, I've got a very busy summer!
We could have a labour leadership battle and a tory one! Or another election if the numbers fall that way!
We could have a unity government with a PM 'suggested' by Brussels. Someone with experience in the Commission and at the heart of UK government. Perhaps a member of the Lords?

Cometh the hour, cometh the Mandy?

williamglenn · June 2017

Ishmael_Z said:
House prices fell again in May, Nationwide says

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40117132

Third successive month, not happened since 2009

It would be impressive of the British public to contrive to halve the average house price to spite the dementia tax proposals.

MarqueeMark · June 2017

DecrepitJohnL said:

RobD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:
An interesting factor in the podcast on the previous thread was that voters remember the bad parts of the Conservative manifesto and the good parts of Labour's. Ironically, one pundit then advised the Tories to go negative! Surely what Theresa May needs to do is to show us her path to the broad, sunlit uplands.
It's impossible to compete with Labour on that front since they are promising everything to everyone.
Actually, Labour's costed manifesto is surprisingly cautious. It is the uncosted Conservative one that is the pig in the poke. You might disagree with Labour's costings and assumptions and priorities but at least they are there.

From the man who regularly tells us everything would have been tickety-boo if only we had stayed the course with Gordon Brown....

Labour's manifesto is a giant con. If implemented, it would require vast tax rises. Those who could leave would. Those who remain would have their pips squeaked in a way Dennis Healy could never have dreamt of.

Fenster · June 2017

MaxPB said:
Maybe Theresa is going for the long con, reducing expectations to nil and then coming out in blistering form tomorrow night.

Hindsight is a funny old thing, and May hasn't covered herself in glory this campaign, not by any means. But I suppose the only way was down for her, from those silly high numbers.

But looking back at previous Tory campaigns -

2005 - Michael Howard toughens up the Tory act. Then, remember Howard Flight? Before the leader was forced to quickly scurry away from that idea (a good idea too, I thought) for patients to pay half the cost of their operation if they chose to go private? Brown and Blair hit the Tories all round the ring over that.

2010 - Big leads in 2007 & 2008 for fresh-faced new-boy Cameron. A commitment to 'match Labour's spending plans from Osborne, and then.... oh oh... the credit crunch. Then the campaign where daggers were out for Cameron for agreeing to the debates, where everybody agreed with Nick. I felt more rattled in May 2010 than I do now.

2015 - The delicate work of splitting the coalition. Accusations against Cameron for not caring enough, not showing enough fire. Twittersphere holding a love-in for Ed. In the end, a brilliant result.

It is never easy, I suppose. And May can always haul it back with one big, good performance. The media loves a hero to zero to hero narrative.

TravelJunkie · June 2017

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:
Actually, Labour's costed manifesto is surprisingly cautious.
Thanks for the laugh of the morning!

The only numbers in the Tory manifesto are the page numbers (I'll get my coat)

Pulpstar · June 2017

TravelJunkie said:
I've got around £1500 to spend on some bets and I want to bet on seats with value.

Any suggestions/tips?

Any possibility that labour regain some seats from the SNP in Glasgow as they have more traditional labour policies that would appeal to them??
Any value bets that liberal democrats win a seat from the conservatives in the west country?
Any value bets that conservatives win seats in London?
Any dark horse value bets would be greatly appreciated?

Plonk it all down with Hills on the blues in North Devon at 2-9.

MaxPB · June 2017

stodge said:

MaxPB said:
Maybe Theresa is going for the long con, reducing expectations to nil and then coming out in blistering form tomorrow night.
Theresa May has given loads of reasons for not voting Labour but very little reasons FOR voting Conservative apart from voting for her personally.

If you like her, fine, that may be enough but if you don't like her or warm to her or have any confidence in her why vote Conservative ?

OTOH you have Corbyn who has been eviscerated by the Press but comes over as a reasonable avuncular man who seems to this observer to be channelling his inner Harold Wilson.

We had that intriguing year from 1975 to 1976 when Margaret Thatcher faced Harold Wilson across the Despatch Box. Wilson was a superb political operator who won four elections, three against Heath. I think an election between Thatcher and Wilson would have been a political master class.

Yes, again I'll go back to my comments after the manifesto reveal. The Tories are giving people precisely fuck all reason to vote for them. It's all more tax and fewer services. Policies like grammar schools which may have been popular enough to overcome the negatives had already been heavily trailed and had no net effect on the day.

I think overall this is the worst political campaign I've ever seen. Almost as bad as Hillary last year (or 2008). Her team is just awful.

Ishmael_Z · June 2017

Slackbladder said:

williamglenn said:

Slackbladder said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's looking increasingly likely that JC will hang onto the leadership regardless of the seat numbers next week.
Will we get another Labour leadership election this summer?

I hope not, I've got a very busy summer!
We could have a labour leadership battle and a tory one! Or another election if the numbers fall that way!
We could have a unity government with a PM 'suggested' by Brussels. Someone with experience in the Commission and at the heart of UK government. Perhaps a member of the Lords?
Cometh the hour, cometh the Mandy?

*symbolically tosses empty Vichy water bottle into bin*

TOPPING · June 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.

Her speech was excellent. Even if it was tucked away and out of the spotlight.

conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html

TudorRose · June 2017

DecrepitJohnL said:

RobD said:

DecrepitJohnL said:
An interesting factor in the podcast on the previous thread was that voters remember the bad parts of the Conservative manifesto and the good parts of Labour's. Ironically, one pundit then advised the Tories to go negative! Surely what Theresa May needs to do is to show us her path to the broad, sunlit uplands.
It's impossible to compete with Labour on that front since they are promising everything to everyone.
Actually, Labour's costed manifesto is surprisingly cautious. It is the uncosted Conservative one that is the pig in the poke. You might disagree with Labour's costings and assumptions and priorities but at least they are there.

That simply doesn't make sense. If the costings are wrong then they might as well not exist (except to prove that you don't understand finance).

IanB2 · June 2017

FPT

TOPPING said:

IanB2 said:

TOPPING said:

IanB2 said:
It wasn’t quite as unwatchable as it threatened to be. It was good to be reminded that Tim Farron existed. He was quite good. His opening statement was the most straightforward. His pitch was a penny on income tax for the NHS and social care, and giving the people the final say on Brexit. His folksy relating of every question to his personal experience is easy to mock but an effective way of getting his message across.

But there were only two people in this debate, Jeremy Corbyn and Amber Rudd. Neither of them was very good. The Labour leader thought he had made his point by turning up. He made no reference to Theresa May’s absence in his opening statement. That seemed quite statesmanlike, but I assumed he was saving it up for later. He wasn’t. His was an underpowered performance in front of an audience that seemed ready to support him.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-seven-way-tv-debate-the-verdict-a7765981.html
Surely a penny on income tax is a regressive tax?
Of the various forms of taxation, income tax is one of the most progressive.
my example previously: one person earning £12,000, another earning £40,000. Both on basic rate. Both pay 1p more on income tax.

Yes, but the first person pays an extra £5 per year and the second person an extra £285 per year. Which is extraordinarily progressive compared to any other way of raising tax. The first person probably pays about half the VAT of the second, for example.

NickPalmer · June 2017

Ishmael_Z said:
There was some pond life here the other day speculating about the extent of the PM's appetite for sex. I thought it didn't get any nastier than that, but 100% ignorant speculation about the very recent death of a politician's 93 year old father wins at a canter. Euchhh. It's the sort of stuff you used to get on Guido before he banned non-registered commenters.

Agreed. Horrible stuff.

paulyork64 · June 2017

MaxPB said:
Maybe Theresa is going for the long con, reducing expectations to nil and then coming out in blistering form tomorrow night.

Unfortunately, for her, I think we're already seeing her best.

DecrepitJohnL · June 2017

dyedwoolie said:
Sky's latest hysterical coverage of the digital election features a digitised shadow figure acting as a puppeteer on the digitised voters below. The digital strings are a lovely shade of Tory blue.
Boulton talking about the election being fought out of sight. Conspiracy Much?

More likely the view that the real Conservative campaign relies on Jim Messina micro-targeting recipients of social media campaigning -- carefully crafted messages and videos directly to waverers in marginals, and have them shared by existing "friends" rather than from CCHQ.

And unless the pollsters are very lucky, they'll not sweep up any of these targeted voters in their samples.

RobD · June 2017

TravelJunkie said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

DecrepitJohnL said:
Actually, Labour's costed manifesto is surprisingly cautious.
Thanks for the laugh of the morning!
The only numbers in the Tory manifesto are the page numbers (I'll get my coat)

It's primarily sticking to the policies outlined in the previous budgets, with more proposals that would/could raise funds for the exchequer than would cost.

TudorRose · June 2017

TravelJunkie said:
I've got around £1500 to spend on some bets and I want to bet on seats with value.

Any suggestions/tips?

Any possibility that labour regain some seats from the SNP in Glasgow as they have more traditional labour policies that would appeal to them??
Any value bets that liberal democrats win a seat from the conservatives in the west country?
Any value bets that conservatives win seats in London?
Any dark horse value bets would be greatly appreciated?

Labour in Lancaster might come in; Smith has incumbency and a high profile (if not for the right reasons) and seems to be working hard on the ground.

glw · June 2017

RobD said:
Surprisingly cautious? They don't even include the cost to the exchequer of re-nationalisation, let alone their overoptimistic predictions from how much revenue their tax hikes will bring in..

The water companies alone will cost £66 billion, and buying will make absolutely no difference to the service, for that to happen much more money will have to be spent.

So no Labour's manifesto is not fully costed, and anyone who says it is is a chump.

TravelJunkie · June 2017

Pulpstar said:

TravelJunkie said:
I've got around £1500 to spend on some bets and I want to bet on seats with value.

Any suggestions/tips?

Any possibility that labour regain some seats from the SNP in Glasgow as they have more traditional labour policies that would appeal to them??
Any value bets that liberal democrats win a seat from the conservatives in the west country?
Any value bets that conservatives win seats in London?
Any dark horse value bets would be greatly appreciated?
Plonk it all down with Hills on the blues in North Devon at 2-9.

profit of £333. Is it free money? I was hoping to get my money back for the cruise I just laid out for (1800)

Cyan · June 2017

"On Betfair CON majority chances down from 96% to 80%"

@Mike or anyone - by "CON majority", Betfair mean 326 or more seats, right?

I think they do, but I've so far been unable to get a clear statement from them.

As we know, given the role of the Speaker and Sinn Fein's usual approach towards Westminster, 323 would give a "working majority", or 325 if SF take their seats.

Pulpstar · June 2017

TravelJunkie said:

Pulpstar said:

TravelJunkie said:
I've got around £1500 to spend on some bets and I want to bet on seats with value.

Any suggestions/tips?

Any possibility that labour regain some seats from the SNP in Glasgow as they have more traditional labour policies that would appeal to them??
Any value bets that liberal democrats win a seat from the conservatives in the west country?
Any value bets that conservatives win seats in London?
Any dark horse value bets would be greatly appreciated?
Plonk it all down with Hills on the blues in North Devon at 2-9.
profit of £333. Is it free money? I was hoping to get my money back for the cruise I just laid out for (1800)

Nothing is ever free money, but I've gone in across the SW (Avoiding Bath and Cheltenham) on the blues.

RobD · June 2017

SeanT said:
Are we due some reassuring polls today? ComRes? Panelbase?

TSE says panelbase, but their previous poll mentioned they are expecting a further tightening (from 15).

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w5SundayTimestablesforpublication230517.pdf

TOPPING · June 2017

I don't think it's bringing any profound political insight to say that Theresa May has found that micro-managing:

an election campaign/competing external interests rather than competing internal ones/the nation/the narrative/the unexpected/Jeremy Corbyn/Fraser Nelson and Dan Hodges/the public...

... a micro-manage too far.

Beverley_C · June 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.

Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote share

Greenwich_Floater · June 2017

Lots of parallels with the Hilary campaign last year in the US. Seriously dull lacklustre individual failing to engage with the electorate (not talking about the TV debate, that was just a circus).

In the states, it led to an wholly inadequate POTUS and there is a danger that the same could happen here.

Personally, I think ICM is probably nearer the mark than YouGov and May will still have a handy majority come next Friday morning, however that rather assumes that the trend of the last 2 weeks tapers off and there are no more 'events' to play out before election day.

RobD · June 2017

Beverley_C said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Now I understand why Remain didn't use Theresa May during EU Ref campaign.
Maybe they should have smuggled her into the Leave camp? Think what she could have done to their vote share

A bit unfair, she gave a good speech on why Britain should stay in the EU that TOPPING linked below. She clearly didn't sign up to the project fear aspects (although she's doing that no with the no deal stuff)

williamglenn · June 2017

SeanT said:
Are we due some reassuring polls today? ComRes? Panelbase?

Here's some reassurance of a different kind: Apple is going to launch a home smart speaker to compete with Amazon and Google. You were right.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-31/apple-said-to-ready-siri-speaker-in-bid-to-rival-google-amazon

TheScreamingEagles · June 2017

SeanT said:
Are we due some reassuring polls today? ComRes? Panelbase?

Due today.

Panelbase, GB wide.

YouGov - Wales only

Richard_Tyndall · June 2017

Since the first Yougov mega poll was released 3 days ago we have had a total of six polls. three of them have been Yougov all basically showing the same thing, one Survey Monkey showing a Tory lead of 6% and a poll each from Kantar and ICM showing leads of 10% and 12%.

The only mention of the polls that do not follow the narrative of 'Tories doing badly' was the rather passing reference "On the day ICM gave the Tories a 12% lead, YouGov analysis has the Tories losing their majority". It would be nice if the thread headers at least mentioned the other polls since anyone just reading the thread headers would not even know they existed.

If Yougov does turn out to be as flawed as many on all sides seem to think it is, then the site's preoccupation with it to the detriment of other polls will be seen to be rather foolish.

Norm · June 2017

Against my original judgement May was correct to avoid the BBC debate last night. It is perfectly possible the shambles on view fed the coalition of chaos meme quite nicely for the Tories. I think TM's problem is that she needs to give up being teetotal, have a drink or two, do some relaxation stuff and hence be more normal.

TudorRose · June 2017

SeanT said:
Are we due some reassuring polls today? ComRes? Panelbase?

There will be no reassuring polls until after half term; take the weekend off with your delightful partner!

RobD · June 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:
Are we due some reassuring polls today? ComRes? Panelbase?
Due today.

Panelbase, GB wide.

YouGov - Wales only

Lord Ashcroft is also updating his model.

rural_voter · June 2017

dyedwoolie said:
Repeated from previous thread. Attacking May over Rudd's father is akin to the Sun over Brown's handwritten condolence letter. Step too far and will not go down well.

Fair to cite the Private Eye coverage of Amber Rudd's business dealings, though.

RobD · June 2017

Richard_Tyndall said:
Since the first Yougov mega poll was released 3 days ago we have had a total of six polls. three of them have been Yougov all basically showing the same thing, one Survey Monkey showing a Tory lead of 6% and a poll each from Kantar and ICM showing leads of 10% and 12%.

The only mention of the polls that do not follow the narrative of 'Tories doing badly' was the rather passing reference "On the day ICM gave the Tories a 12% lead, YouGov analysis has the Tories losing their majority". It would be nice if the thread headers at least mentioned the other polls since anyone just reading the thread headers would not even know they existed.

If Yougov does turn out to be as flawed as many on all sides seem to think it is, then the site's preoccupation with it to the detriment of other polls will be seen to be rather foolish.

YouGov do have the limelight at the moment, and are drowning out coverage of other polls.

MonikerDiCanio · June 2017

NickPalmer said:

Ishmael_Z said:
There was some pond life here the other day speculating about the extent of the PM's appetite for sex. I thought it didn't get any nastier than that, but 100% ignorant speculation about the very recent death of a politician's 93 year old father wins at a canter. Euchhh. It's the sort of stuff you used to get on Guido before he banned non-registered commenters.
Agreed. Horrible stuff.

" Horrible stuff " , insignificant compared to the murderous idiotic horrors that you enthusiastically voted for.

isam · June 2017

How many times do opinion polls have to be wrong before people realise they're a load of old shit?

"If the polls called it incorrectly in the last two national elections, why should take seriously what they tell us now? Why did they indicate one thing, pretty strongly, only for the public to say something different? I believe it’s because they are not recording the opinion of the public as a whole but extrapolating the opinion of the type who like answering opinion polls - the politically engaged."

http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html?m=1

IanB2 · June 2017

FPT:

david_herdson said:

bobajobPB said:
Southam FPT

There is absolutely nothing wrong with considering nationalisation for the railways. The UK's busiest railway is already nationalised. And many franchises are nationalised to foreign powers. Franchising simply has not worked – no-one can say what it is for. It's expensive and fragmented. The public want one arse to kick. Public ownership and concessions should be readily considered.
There's nothing wrong with considering it. Such consideration should take account of how rubbish BR was, and particularly, how rubbish customer service was under BR - to the extent that they did't even recognise the concept of a customer; merely a person to be conveyed.

That's not to say nothing could be better on the rails but both history and logic suggest that companies overseen by an effective independent regulator are likely to be more responsive to rail customer preferences than a government subject to many more calls on its time and money and more susceptible to special interest lobbying would be.

I have a lot of sympathy with bringing the railways together again, which nationalisation would do. I don't really see any benefit from having all these different companies in different colours, and the cross-ticketing arrangements are a ludicrous nightmare. For most journeys there is only one sensible way to go by train, and so no real competition.

But I do shudder at recalling British Rail. One of my first jobs was being responsible for mail operations at Liverpool Street station, and I remember the awful meetings we used to have with BR management; the only good thing about them was that we came away feeling that the Post Office was efficient and professional by comparison.

If it is renationalised gvt would be best to use the old Post Office/Royal Mail as an example, letting it run itself as a business as far as possible free from day-to-day interference by either ministers or civil servants. The difficult thing is stopping politicians getting involved when there are complaints or significant service failings (which of course they do now - cf. Southern - but not as routinely as when government appoints the managers). And avoiding government starving the entity of investment.

In the end RM took the mail off the railways altogether, which made a significant contribution to improving the postal service.

RobD · June 2017

TudorRose said:

SeanT said:
Are we due some reassuring polls today? ComRes? Panelbase?
There will be no reassuring polls until after half term; take the weekend off with your delightful partner!

I don't think she's that young...

(just joking, SeanT!

)

Pulpstar · June 2017

Greenwich_Floater said:
Lots of parallels with the Hilary campaign last year in the US. Seriously dull lacklustre individual failing to engage with the electorate (not talking about the TV debate, that was just a circus).

In the states, it led to an wholly inadequate POTUS and there is a danger that the same could happen here.

Personally, I think ICM is probably nearer the mark than YouGov and May will still have a handy majority come next Friday morning, however that rather assumes that the trend of the last 2 weeks tapers off and there are no more 'events' to play out before election day.

The fundamentals of that election massively favoured the GOP though. & I THINK "wrong winner" scenarios this time round favour the Tories with the urban/rural remain/leave polarisation.

TOPPING · June 2017

isam said:
How many times do opinion polls have to be wrong before people realise they're a load of old shit?

People, indeed we are like the drunk looking for his keys under the lamppost...

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