politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s the economy, stupid. And Team Corbyn aren’t stupid.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Roger, I can appreciate that. The noise would probably annoy me a lot if I actually went to a race.

Mr. rkrkrk, hard to assess that note in electoral terms but it certainly didn't help Labour.

I think the EdStone solidified Miliband's position as a silly sausage in the eyes of the electorate.

I can't believe you haven't been to a race! I haven't either but I went to a practice and it was unbearable. I don't think it's helped by how enclosed the track is. I noticed they sold headphones just after I left.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well

twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/869118813991825408

My great mistake for the American election was assuming that Hillary was campaigning in rational locations.

She was in California & New York for a good deal of it wasn't she ?

That was fund raising, Trump also spent a lot of time there and Texas.

It was things like the Arizona trips or the completely fucking lack of Midwestern rust belt stops that lead me totally astray.

However, in 2015 the Tories were campaigning in Colchester, a seat I thought rock-solid. It was a Con Gain.

Granted, but we knew the LDs were taking a hammering from the polls, it was just expected in the seats they held they would do better, but they were clearly still worth going for. If the polls are right, and it is a big if, then Labour are surging, not collapsing, so expecting rock solid seats to switch makes less sense to focus on.

Alanbrooke said:

John Noakes dead

https://twitter.com/BBCArchive/status/869131973889069057

Age 83

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?

One naturally worries about the worst numbers for one's own side, but the average post Manchester is still Con 44.4%, Lab 35.4%. Conservatives are up 6.6% on 2015, Labour up 4%.

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?

It turned round for Major when he started doing those soapbox speeches in market squares. At the time the effect it had amazed me, since there were only a handful of them and he didn't say anything earth shattering. But I guess people like to see politicians mixing it with their voters. A lesson for Mrs May? (Although not one she'll want to hear)

SouthamObserver said:

TW1R64 said:

This Alex Cruz has turned flying with BA from mildly pleasurable to absolutely horrendous. He came from Vueling which has to be the worst airline I have ever flown with. He must go he"a a disaster!

Yep - Vueling is a shocker. I flew Ryanair to Barcelona last week. You know what you are paying for and you get it. That is a lot better than being sold a what is supposed to be a premium product and being given something third rate. Even in business class - which I fly now and again with BA - you can see the decline. But it's still not as bad as the US carriers. They are utterly awful in every way imaginable.

Agreed. I've been flying BA club class for about 6 years, when I started they were really ahead of the game, the business bed was a revolutionary idea and they had begun to put AC sockets in business seats which was extremely handy, no other airline had these options, not even the heavily subsidised Arab ones. BA were pioneering and full of ideas. Nothing has changed since then, if anything it's gone backwards. No food/drink on economy short haul (which is a real irritation given how often I fly to and from London), the business bed has been adopted by all but the American carriers, AC sockets are standard on economy on the Arab carriers, the food in club class is appreciably worse this year than last year, the wine choices are more limited.

BA are in serial decline, they need to invest massively in updating their fleet and the cabins. The staff are the only thing that keeps this airline running and keeps me coming back. Always 100% first rate service, but everything else is falling to pieces.

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

Just because the polls are showing something doesn't mean that's what's gouing to happen on polling day.

In 1987 Kinnock was generally thought to have had a good campaign and Mrs Thatcher a very poor campaign. There were several polls through the 1987 campaign that had the Tories at just 5-7% leads though they ended up winning by around 12%....

In 1992 there was general media derision of John Major getting on his "soap box" in market and shire towns.

And we all know what everyone said about the 2010 and 2015 Con campaigns while they were taking place.

I don't understand why Theresa May is planning to talk about domestic violence now.

She should be talking relentlessly about the economy, security and Brexit - and only those - over the next 10 days.

Nothing else.

Sean_F said:

One naturally worries about the worst numbers for one's own side, but the average post Manchester is still Con 44.4%, Lab 35.4%.

May is more or less where she started off a month ago

that sort of says bar some wobbling she has a firm base

the issue has been the Corbyn rise, how much of this will turn up on the day remains to be seen

that said the Tories could have saved themselves a lot of trouble by having some sensible policies to appeal to across the age spectrum. Their campaign management has been rubbish

Yorkcity said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The 1992 Conservative campaign led by Chris Patten was successful.

But it was much criticized while it was taking place.

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?

One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.

But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.

The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.

Casino_Royale said:

I don't understand why Theresa May is planning to talk about domestic violence now.

She should be talking relentlessly about the economy, security and Brexit - and only those - over the next 10 days.

Nothing else.

I disagree. She's already miles ahead on those issues so those that care most about them are already locked in. She needs to convince waverers who like her security stance but are more persuaded by social issues. Nobody concerned about Brexit and security is hovering over the Corbyn box.

glw said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

I don't think it is as simple as the Tories having a bad campaign. The Tory share has been fairly stable, but Labour are mopping up the Lib Dem vote (they are the party truly having a terrible campaign), and Labour are apparently getting a lot of don't votes saying they will vote.

Yes, the centre has collapsed, hasn't it. It's a polarised and polarising election.

Must be the fashion.

dyedwoolie said:

One cautionary note about doorstep reaction. It's not terribly good at picking up the youth intention. Either their parents respond or they don't bother answering. It really is down to youth turnout.

It is not down to youth turnout. High concentrations of youth vote are, with a handful of exceptions, in Uni seats - most of which are already solid Lab.

Many of these have broken up for the summer - which is very different to usual May elections (how long since we've had a GE not in May?).

Stoke Central, for example, is not going to be decided by youth turnout. Nor is Don Valley, Copeland etc etc etc

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

One naturally worries about the worst numbers for one's own side, but the average post Manchester is still Con 44.4%, Lab 35.4%.

May is more or less where she started off a month ago

that sort of says bar some wobbling she has a firm base

the issue has been the Corbyn rise, how much of this will turn up on the day remains to be seen

that said the Tories could have saved themselves a lot of trouble by having some sensible policies to appeal to across the age spectrum. Their campaign management has been rubbish

And it also explains why both sides are getting good canvassing reports. The Tories are picking up huge support from ex-UKIP voters, Labour are picking up support from some kippers, plus supporters for other left wing parties, plus former non-voters.

dyedwoolie said:

Nobody concerned about Brexit and security is hovering over the Corbyn box.

I agree with that. If you think security matters Corbyn is quite probably the worst candidate in history.

another_richard said:

rural_voter said:

another_richard said:

numbertwelve said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well

https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/869118813991825408

Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well

https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/869118813991825408

Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.

I find it fascinating that they're still focusing on that sort of seat. Delusions of landslide or backed up by private polling? Difficult to say,l.

Its the sort of seat which could go Conservative if ICM are right.

One thing I'm confident about is that UNS will not apply at this election.

Bolsover doesn't appear in a list of top 100 Labour defences, i.e., seats that may be lost in a landslide of epic proportions

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labour-defence/

UNS does not apply.

For example I expect Labour to hold Westminster North (21 on that list) even if the Conservatives have a majority of 100.

So do I but for a majority of 100 they need to gain 43 Labour seats. Their current majority is I think 12.

Casino_Royale said:

I don't understand why Theresa May is planning to talk about domestic violence now.

She should be talking relentlessly about the economy, security and Brexit - and only those - over the next 10 days.

Nothing else.

Spending the last days talking about social issues helped in 2015. Nursery places etc

ANYONE who cares about Brexit, security and the economy is already voting Tory. Trust me - they're telling me on the doorstep very loudly...

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?

Major's result was good but we don't know how May's will compare with it.

For most of the 1992 campaign Labour had the lead and the Conservative campaign were criticized.

And were Kinnock's Labour that superior ? Kinnock was mocked as an ineffectual windbag, there was the Sheffield rally madness and they had to keep Shadow Foreign Secretary Gerald Kaufman hidden away from the public.

tlg86 said:

Roger said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Roger, I can appreciate that. The noise would probably annoy me a lot if I actually went to a race.

Mr. rkrkrk, hard to assess that note in electoral terms but it certainly didn't help Labour.

I think the EdStone solidified Miliband's position as a silly sausage in the eyes of the electorate.

I can't believe you haven't been to a race! I haven't either but I went to a practice and it was unbearable. I don't think it's helped by how enclosed the track is. I noticed they sold headphones just after I left.

Blimey, you would have hated it when they had proper engines. I can still remember hearing the screech of a V10 through the trees the first time I went to Spa. It's just not the same now.

Well if those are the quiet version no wonder the top drivers get £30 million a year.

Mortimer said:

TudorRose said:

kle4 said:

numbertwelve said:

kle4 said:

Sean_F said:

numbertwelve said:

SandyRentool said:

I saw this morning's embargoed poll while sitting in bed. Good job I am not a Tory, or a change of sheets would have been required.

A lot of people thought we might hit crossover at the weekend.

That, so far, hasn't happened. Some slightly disappointing polls but others point to a large majority.

Although no Tories wanted the polls to narrow, they're not in the danger zone yet.

A lead of 6-14% is hardly a disaster.

And if the lead goes down to 3? Less?

May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.

And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.

If

It's been down to 5 once already. And more at the lower end than the top end. Hence why the Tories need a pollster that was showing mid single digits to return to double digits, to settle nerves about the direction of travel.

But any polling for the next week will be conducted either over the bank holiday or during half term; no pollster's going to get a reliable sample (especially on-line I'd suggest).

CCHQ are still sending people to Bolsover, which gives me an inkling that they have canvass returns that suggest something significantly different from the polls. Either that or they're sending Leadsom somewhere she can't do much damage!!

As myself and MarqueeMark have been posting, the doorstep reaction is nothing like the polls. Visceral dislike of Corbyn (and especially Abbott). I've yet to canvass a 2015 UKIPer who wasn't switching. Lots of 'Im voting for Theresa, I've never voted Tory before'.

The polls (ICM excepted) are not only seemingly disagreeing with this, the headline VIs seem to be disagreeing with the sort of supplementaries we'd expect to accompany them. I think ICM are going to have a great night come June 8th...

We have lots of other recent evidence for this too. The Copeland by-election. The local elections from earlier this month, where we all recognised a Tory victory in Birmingham and Tees Valley pointed to a landslide, and supplementaries on leadership and best on the economy ratings.

It's possible that's all wrong and there has been a landslide switch in public opinion over the last 10-11 days that will cripple May's next Government.

Personally, I doubt it, except a lot of the sheen has come off Theresa and there has been a strong rally of the Left-wing base to Labour.

Beverley_C said:

SouthamObserver said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Dura_Ace said:

timmo said:

Dura_Ace said:

Old Ma Dura_Ace is a one woman focus group and political bellwether - she has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1955. Her comment on May today was, "She's gone Maggie Arrogant without actually achieving anything.

So who has she said is going to win?

She switched from Con to Lab over the Dementia Tax..

In which case she clearly doesn't understand it and neither do you. I would suggest her bellwether status is about to end in a quite dramatic manner.

If people do not understand it, whose fault is that?

I think people understand the Dementia Tax all too well. That was its massive flaw - assuming that people would put the good of the country ahead of the good of their entire family.

Money is tight and getting tighter. People will not sit idly by and watch the govt confiscate their inheritance.

Most people don't how the care of the elderly is paid for.

Once it is explained that ordinary tax payers are being asked to pay for the upkeep of wealthy older people so that those people can save their own money to pass on a greater unearned and undeserved inheritance to their children then attitudes will change.

Casino_Royale said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?

One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.

But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.

The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.

Maybe May should get back to talking about Brexit, which after all was the reason she gave for calling the election.

The Manifesto was a disaster and the attempt to depict Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser hasn't resonated. Perhaps if she were to re-emphasise the importance of a large majority in her forthcoming negotiations with the EU the voters would be more responsive.

With the Tories polling mid 40s this is absolutely not the time for them to go core vote strategy. It's the time to persuade those that have never voted Tory to do so whilst allowing Corbyn to be demonised/doubts sown. How the last week plays out will be most informative as to expectations.

England's batsmen today = Theresa May and this general election campaign

Casino_Royale said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?

One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.

But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.

The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.

Well when you've got some bloke at the end of the road flogging £10 notes at £5 a time it's not surprising he's attracting some interest.

daodao said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

GIN1138 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

Just because the polls are showing something doesn't mean that's what's gouing to happen on polling day.

In 1987 Kinnock was generally thought to have had a good campaign and Mrs Thatcher a very poor campaign. There were several polls through the 1987 campaign that had the Tories at just 5-7% leads though they ended up winning by around 12%....

In 1992 there was general media derision of John Major getting on his "soap box" in market and shire towns.

And we all know what everyone said about the 2010 and 2015 Con campaigns while they were taking place.

May's going to win because Corbyn is unelectable but remember to get rid of her asap after the election. She could do fantastic harm to your party and the nation.

Hopefully the beginning of June will be the end of May.

Nice.

glw said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Yes, the centre has collapsed, hasn't it. It's a polarised and polarising election.

Must be the fashion.

By far the most perplexing thing about this election to me is the failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Remain support. I honestly thought they would get a decent boost, and maybe even give Labour a run for vote share if not seats. Instead the Lib Dems appear to have gone backwards. But my hunch is the Lib Dems might do a bit better on the day than the polls suggest, as I can see a few waverers thinking "I'll tick the harmless box".

I'm exactly the sort of voter you had in mind. I normally vote Labour but my local MP is a Labour Brexiteer, so I voted LD this time. Seems that very few are doing likewise though.

Maybe the FPTP system renders such protest votes so ineffectual that people are not inclined to use them that way.

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?

One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.

But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.

The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.

Well when you've got some bloke at the end of the road flogging £10 notes at £5 a time it's not surprising he's attracting some interest.

Well it worked at the referendum, and for Trump, so where not at the GE?

GIN1138 said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

Just because the polls are showing something doesn't mean that's what's gouing to happen on polling day.

In 1987 Kinnock was generally thought to have had a good campaign and Mrs Thatcher a very poor campaign. There were several polls through the 1987 campaign that had the Tories at just 5-7% leads though they ended up winning by around 12%....

In 1992 there was general media derision of John Major getting on his "soap box" in market and shire towns.

And we all know what everyone said about the 2010 and 2015 Con campaigns while they were taking place.

It might change but the polls the tories have broadly stayed at a fairly high level - did anyone really expect them to stay at 49% even if that level was true? Labour have shown an increase and the LDs have collapsed. Corbyn and Labour are making wild and generous promises based on the expectation of never having to face up to them. No doubt the young like the free tuition fee promise so perhaps that explains some of it although at first blush this seems a bonus for the wealthy few at the expense of the taxable many.

If the worst comes to the worst, and Jezza by some fluke is handed the reins of the economy, and we become Venezuela, he has a ready-made excuse ... it was Brexit, nothing to do with us!

I've got a suspicion there will be an enormous number of marginals for next time. And a larger number of super safes. Not so much the 3-10k majorities.

More proof, if you ever needed it, that Corbyn is a deranged terrorsit sympathiser -

https://order-order.com/2017/05/29/corbyn-attended-terror-conference-honouring-munich-killer/

Already priced in? We'll see.

Patrick said:

williamglenn said:

Patrick said:

not_on_fire said:

Patrick said:

On topic:
Labour are doing a surprisingly good job of selling full-on socialism to a significant chunk of the electorate. The promised jam tsunami paid for by someone else is clearly appealing to many. According to the Telegraph the surge is mostly female. Dumb heifers. It's sad to see how little some people seem able to learn from the examples of history.
And...that nice Mrs May has made a bit of a clusterfuck of her campaign. She listened to Grimer Wormtongue instead of her colleagues. All the manifesto needed to be was a 'steady as she goes' Brexity affair. Instead she let some know-nothing REMF masturbate all over it. Not clever.

Yet another hypocrite who demands that the voters will be respected when they agree with you (Brexit) but labels them as stupid as soon as they don't

There is a right and a wrong to pretty much every political issue. Brexit is right. We can't be in a superstate. Socialism is wrong. Look what happens to any country that tries it. See? Not hard.

The UK is much more of a superstate than the EU so it's always been an odd criticism for anyone to make who doesn't favour breaking it up.

We are a single demos (albeit somewhat under strain in Scotland) and a real democracy. You can kick the buggers out here. Therefore a unitary state. A united kingdom. It's been stable for centuries. None of these are true in the EU. Which will not last beyond our lifetimes.

If you live in Foyle for example, how exactly can you 'kick the buggers out' or register an opinion about the UK government at all?

You think the UK has been stable for centuries yet you overlook the loss of most of one of its constituent countries and ongoing civil unrest. Your views are completely irrational and driven by an absurd mania about the EU.

RIP John Noakes. A hugely influential part of my childhood. :-(

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

TW1R64 said:

This Alex Cruz has turned flying with BA from mildly pleasurable to absolutely horrendous. He came from Vueling which has to be the worst airline I have ever flown with. He must go he"a a disaster!

Yep - Vueling is a shocker. I flew Ryanair to Barcelona last week. You know what you are paying for and you get it. That is a lot better than being sold a what is supposed to be a premium product and being given something third rate. Even in business class - which I fly now and again with BA - you can see the decline. But it's still not as bad as the US carriers. They are utterly awful in every way imaginable.

Agreed. I've been flying BA club class for about 6 years, when I started they were really ahead of the game, the business bed was a revolutionary idea and they had begun to put AC sockets in business seats which was extremely handy, no other airline had these options, not even the heavily subsidised Arab ones. BA were pioneering and full of ideas. Nothing has changed since then, if anything it's gone backwards. No food/drink on economy short haul (which is a real irritation given how often I fly to and from London), the business bed has been adopted by all but the American carriers, AC sockets are standard on economy on the Arab carriers, the food in club class is appreciably worse this year than last year, the wine choices are more limited.

BA are in serial decline, they need to invest massively in updating their fleet and the cabins. The staff are the only thing that keeps this airline running and keeps me coming back. Always 100% first rate service, but everything else is falling to pieces.

Yep - BA staff are a cut above. But they are treated like crap by management, too. The club class service has definitely declined. People notice these things. What BA does have going for it - for now, at least - is a relatively generous Points package. I reckon it's that which keeps a lot of the premium customers coming back.

I had an awful Easyjet flight back from Portugal. Didn't get home until nearly 3am after being delayed by well over 2 hours and treated like cattle the whole time.

To be honest, such is the woeful customer service, and awful facilities and amenities, that it's just put me off flying altogether. And it isn't even that cheap anymore to compensate.

My wife and I will be taking the ferry to Jersey for our late Summer break.

We're getting the ferry to Spain in the summer and then driving up to our rental in France. Cheaper and more pleasant than flying and then hiring a car.

glw said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Yes, the centre has collapsed, hasn't it. It's a polarised and polarising election.

Must be the fashion.

By far the most perplexing thing about this election to me is the failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Remain support. I honestly thought they would get a decent boost, and maybe even give Labour a run for vote share if not seats. Instead the Lib Dems appear to have gone backwards. But my hunch is the Lib Dems might do a bit better on the day than the polls suggest, as I can see a few waverers thinking "I'll tick the harmless box".

The closer Labour get to Conservative the fewer people will vote Lib Dem.

People will be scared of a Labour SNP coalition. So must vote to maximise Conservative MPs and keep out SNP.

Mortimer said:

Casino_Royale said:

I don't understand why Theresa May is planning to talk about domestic violence now.

She should be talking relentlessly about the economy, security and Brexit - and only those - over the next 10 days.

Nothing else.

Spending the last days talking about social issues helped in 2015. Nursery places etc

ANYONE who cares about Brexit, security and the economy is already voting Tory. Trust me - they're telling me on the doorstep very loudly...

In the GE2015 election "long-term economic plan" was heard loudly and clearly all the way until polling day.

It's a battle of turnout as much as voting intention.

nunu said:

dyedwoolie said:

Casino_Royale said:

I don't understand why Theresa May is planning to talk about domestic violence now.

She should be talking relentlessly about the economy, security and Brexit - and only those - over the next 10 days.

Nothing else.

I disagree. She's already miles ahead on those issues so those that care most about them are already locked in. She needs to convince waverers who like her security stance but are more persuaded by social issues. Nobody concerned about Brexit and security is hovering over the Corbyn box.

But everyone agrees that domestic violence is bad. It won't win any votes. This is madness from May!

If she wants to campaign on something it should to be Brexit and what the priorities are or talk about how Corbyn's insane plan will ruin the economy and why they are not affordable, or why Corbyn wanted to review shoot to kill after the Bataclan attack. She needs to sew doubt into Labour supperter minds. "Don't risk it"! That sort of thing.

God she is crap. She'll be campaigning on Alcohol Addiction next, o.k , yes we get it no one likes these things but tell us why we should vote for you and not the other lot.

Shes polling mid 40s and night on 50 as best PM. If that's crap, the Tories will take it.
It's labour surging not the Tories collapsing. Like the fantasy of Cleggasm will Labour's surge materialise?

Peter_the_Punter said:

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?

One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.

But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.

The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.

Well when you've got some bloke at the end of the road flogging £10 notes at £5 a time it's not surprising he's attracting some interest.

Well it worked at the referendum, and for Trump, so where not at the GE?

Yep - it puzzles me some of right wing Brexit posters on here cannot see the link. The left-behind, sneered at, white working class they were saying the Brexit vote was all about (and it was) were heroes back then. Now they are derided. All for being completely consistent.

PeterC said:

Casino_Royale said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

another_richard said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/869104677589323776

Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.

The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.

Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?

One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.

But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.

The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.

Well when you've got some bloke at the end of the road flogging £10 notes at £5 a time it's not surprising he's attracting some interest.

Well quite. Hammond would be a good person to use now, strong and stable needs to make a comeback against someone promising free owls to everyone.

tlg86 said:

brokenwheel said:

kle4 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Alistair said:

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Well

twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/869118813991825408

My great mistake for the American election was assuming that Hillary was campaigning in rational locations.

She was in California & New York for a good deal of it wasn't she ?

That was fund raising, Trump also spent a lot of time there and Texas.

It was things like the Arizona trips or the completely fucking lack of Midwestern rust belt stops that lead me totally astray.

However, in 2015 the Tories were campaigning in Colchester, a seat I thought rock-solid. It was a Con Gain.

Granted, but we knew the LDs were taking a hammering from the polls, it was just expected in the seats they held they would do better, but they were clearly still worth going for. If the polls are right, and it is a big if, then Labour are surging, not collapsing, so expecting rock solid seats to switch makes less sense to focus on.

But the surge, if real, is largely coming from 18-24. Unless those safe seats have a large proportion of 18-24 then they are vulnerable to a swing to the Conservatives. Bolsover doesn't have a particularly young demographic IIRC.

If the surge is comeing from 18 to 24 year olds, then surely Clegg and Mulholland are toast.

Have backed Labour in Leeds NW. If the youth are heading to the polls, he's gone.

TheScreamingEagles said:

England's batsmen today = Theresa May and this general election campaign

Why would anyone play the sort of shot at 15/3,4,5 as they would at 215/3 ?

You can see more maturity, thought and professionalism at a village club.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

dyedwoolie said:

Casino_Royale said:

I don't understand why Theresa May is planning to talk about domestic violence now.

She should be talking relentlessly about the economy, security and Brexit - and only those - over the next 10 days.

Nothing else.

I disagree. She's already miles ahead on those issues so those that care most about them are already locked in. She needs to convince waverers who like her security stance but are more persuaded by social issues. Nobody concerned about Brexit and security is hovering over the Corbyn box.

I'm with CR. It's about aligning the priorities of the voter with those where you are strongest.

Yes. If you're pissed off about social care and thinking of abstaining to give May a message, or even voting Corbyn out of spite, it can do well to remind the voter of the consequences to them of that.

You have to bring the debate back onto your ground.