Everything that is supposed to lead to a return of 'normality' for the Tory lead never seems to happen. It's time to face facts - labour have recovered their lost support, people like their message and aren't offput by Corbyn, so the Tory majority so t be massive. But unless the young actually show up, it will still be 50-70.
It'll be funny to see the shares stay about where they are over the next few days despite Tories feeling better when the Ira video went viral and Abbott messed up again.surely this will hurt labour? On present form, people Have made up their minds, they want to limit the Tory majority as much as they can.
I'm not at all sure that much of this is to do with something so sophisticated as voters trying to deny the Tories a big majority. If you have a return to two-party politics, which is effectively the situation in the vast bulk of England and Wales (Scotland and Northern Ireland being, of course, almost on different planets politically,) then why bother to vote for anyone else? First the traditional third party collapsed in the last election, and then the alternative third party - which was arguably a single personality, single issue outfit - lost both the personality and the issue after the EU referendum. So, the right-leaning vote has coalesced around May, and the left-leaning vote has coalesced around Corbyn as the only possible answer to May.
Save in a handful of specific and isolated cases - e.g. Remainian SW London and the Welsh language heartland - the Parliamentary battle is almost entirely between those two power blocs, and we are therefore back to the situation where Con+Lab could make 85% again, and within that bulk of the population most will naturally gravitate towards one party or the other. At this point, it is worth noting that, in the period from 1945-1970 when the Con/Lab duopoly was at its height, the biggest winning margin in any General Election - that of Labour over the Conservatives and their allies in 1945 - was less than 10% in terms of share of the popular vote.
Given the historical precedents, if the Conservatives end up polling around 45% at the end of all off this, then perhaps we ought not to view a Labour share of 35% (or even a little better) as especially surprising, even given the weaknesses and divisive nature of the Labour leadership?
You may well be proven right, but it shouldn't be a straight Con lab fight with Corbyn running things. He's done well, butvtheclds have a lot to answer for.
Last night a Tory source told the Daily Mail: ‘We fully expect to fall behind Labour in a poll in the coming days. It will happen.’
Impact management. So a 6% lead looks good. If mums are returning to Labour, this could turn the election.
However, the Tories will still win. Under 50 majority is possible.
What a waste of an election where 30-50 is possible. Yes it's better fircmay, but is an increase that small worth losing months of negotiation time and other work, particularly when you're not safe from rebellions with areas like that?
A lot of hassle for an extra year (2021 being most likely, now that FTPA has been shown ineffective; election talk will certainly start then)
I think ICM are basically right on the turnout of previous non-voters. When I get time I'll write a thread header on this.
The interesting question is how they don't seem to have this problem in France? Or the US where, as Silver recently highlighted, their polling accuracy is significantly better than ours?
It may be as simple as most Brits don't like to talk about politics.
Driving around my consituency yesterday (Warwick and Leamington) the only posters in windows and on. boards you could see were Labour ones. But the Tories are going to increase their majority here by many thousands.
In my area York Central there are many posters for Labour but only in small letters.The name of the sitting Labour MP Rachel Maskell is everywhere.Where I live York Outer safe conservative seen nothing.
Around Leics posters are sparse. Quite a lot of LD ones in Oadby and Hinckley (Harborough and Bosworth constituencies), a few Jon Ashworth and one Green in Lei South University areas, a couple for the Theresa May party in fields near Kibworth (Harborough again).
There were nearly none for either side in the referendum though, it does not mean much.
I was in Richmond Park on Saturday. Lots of LD and Con posters. While the LD ones didn't name their candidate, I was surprised to see that the Tory ones all read 'Vote Zac Goldsmith, Conservative', accompanied by his picture. I'd have thought they would have wanted to downplay the candidate this time round.
I agree. I think it is an error. Zac is very well liked by Tory councillors and those running his campaign. Not so much by the average Tory voter. "I'm not voting for Goldsmith. I'm voting for the Conservative Party" said one Tory voter to me.
I'm picking up vague signs of voter fatigue. GE 2015, Euref 2016, By election Dec 2016 and now this. I think it is affecting the Tory vote more than the LibDems who are up for it so I think there may be a differential turnout again - which the LibDems need.
Sarah Olney doing well with young mums on education. She's LibDem Shadow on Education and has been very active in that area. In the past Zac has done well with young mums (he hangs around school gates chatting them up) but he's out of favour with many of them now.
Hard to call. I feel the same way as I did at this stage in the by election. Goldsmith probably edges it based on the demographics but he is facing headwinds.
Well the LDs face a struggle in most places, so good luck.
So, other than this enbargoed poll, any more incoming? Tories need things to at at least stop getting worse. Some polls have been ok, but they really need so e the ones that have shown labour within 5-6 to return to around 10 . Otherwise it's still a question of which methodology is right, not an indication the rot has been stopped,
Monday is usually ICM/Guardian day... But as its bank holiday we'll probably not have that poll today.
Last night a Tory source told the Daily Mail: ‘We fully expect to fall behind Labour in a poll in the coming days. It will happen.’
Impact management. So a 6% lead looks good. If mums are returning to Labour, this could turn the election.
However, the Tories will still win. Under 50 majority is possible.
What a waste of an election where 30-50 is possible. Yes it's better fircmay, but is an increase that small worth losing months of negotiation time and other work, particularly when you're not safe from rebellions with areas like that?
A lot of hassle for an extra year (2021 being most likely, now that FTPA has been shown ineffective; election talk will certainly start then)
Not if labour are leading polls by then.
And if they truly only 6 behind now, they will be ahead by then.
So, other than this enbargoed poll, any more incoming? Tories need things to at at least stop getting worse. Some polls have been ok, but they really need so e the ones that have shown labour within 5-6 to return to around 10 . Otherwise it's still a question of which methodology is right, not an indication the rot has been stopped,
Stop being such a negative ninny. The Tory vote is solid; Labour are scooping up those who don't like the government. The Tory anti-Corbyn barrage should start to cut into their certainty to vote over the next 9 days.
Mr. CD13, you may, depressingly, be right. Throwing endless free stuff at people, where the 'free' part is their own taxes being recycled through the state and massive increased borrowing, appears alarmingly popular.
Morris 10 years of no real real wage increases must have some effect eventually.British workers face worst decade for pay in 70 years .
It is, of course, worth remembering that this trend is not restricted to the UK. It also occurred in the US, Japan, and most of the Eurozone.
Did it happen to executive earnings ?
It's a good question. And although it's counter-intuitive, I wouldn't be surprised if executive pay was down on the level of a decade ago. It's just that absorbing a 10% decline in real earnings is a easier when you're on £1m/year, rather than £16,000.
They also have much more scope to ramp up their earnings in good times - "We have to pay the going rate for world class talent".
Morning all, and a fine bank holiday it is. That daily mail Quote smacks of two things. Classic panic pressing to shore up support amongst waverers and possibly some creative quoting by the DM, missing off something like 'if the labour increase continues like this......' off the front and so,etching off the end perhaps. With the Tory share stubbornly refusing to fall further than the odd % point already seen a Labour lead seems, well, unlikely. Especially with half the current polls giving double digit leads. As for the question of who is right, as with everything it's probably some of all of it. I.e. an increased desire to vote amongst the young but not to the extent they state in polls. Most will say yes I'm voting in the run in but not all will and it will as ever be the young who are less likely, even with increased numbers actually doing it. Hence the midpoint seems likely so 10 points or so which would deliver a solid majority to landslide if differentials come in. As much as the youth vote might enthuse for Corbyn, the old vote will baulk at it. The next 9 days will be very very negative campaigning by the blues. Bank the 44 and put the fear of God in the 38. Of course I may be wrong and Labour surge ever more. Strange times.
Don may be completely right about how fragile the economy is the problem is who could possibly believe things could be any better under Corbyn? What unites the Corbyn brigade is a hatred of British history and modern British govts since Wilson.If Corbyn becomes the next govt his support base will start fighting each other over Brexit,taxes,public spending,defence etc The original Tory mantra `a Corbyn coalition of chaos` still rings true .The other mantra half `a strong and stable May govt` does not.Neither Corbyn or May will be their party leader at the next election.Question is who will go first?
I said means testing the winter fuel allowance was a disaster from the moment it was announced.
Sir Lynton should put me on the payroll...
A good policy but poor politics. An outbreak of honesty that politically they thought they could weather.
The only way you can take away the pensioner perks (and they do need taking away) is to "ween" people off them gradually... And you do that by not offering them (or means testing them) to new claimants and waiting for the pensioners who are currently getting them to die off.
You can't just come along and snatch them off people who have had them for years and not expect a terrible backlash,
Perhaps worth noting that the two biggest clangers in recent elections (the EdStone and May's social care self-harming) were both suggested by special advisers rather than current or former politicians.
Mr. CD13, you may, depressingly, be right. Throwing endless free stuff at people, where the 'free' part is their own taxes being recycled through the state and massive increased borrowing, appears alarmingly popular.
Morris 10 years of no real real wage increases must have some effect eventually.British workers face worst decade for pay in 70 years .
It is, of course, worth remembering that this trend is not restricted to the UK. It also occurred in the US, Japan, and most of the Eurozone.
Did it happen to executive earnings ?
It's a good question. And although it's counter-intuitive, I wouldn't be surprised if executive pay was down on the level of a decade ago. It's just that absorbing a 10% decline in real earnings is a easier when you're on £1m/year, rather than £16,000.
This suggests a big hit from financial crisis and now rising back up. Still below peak.
So, other than this enbargoed poll, any more incoming? Tories need things to at at least stop getting worse. Some polls have been ok, but they really need so e the ones that have shown labour within 5-6 to return to around 10 . Otherwise it's still a question of which methodology is right, not an indication the rot has been stopped,
Stop being such a negative ninny. The Tory vote is solid; Labour are scooping up those who don't like the government. The Tory anti-Corbyn barrage should start to cut into their certainty to vote over the next 9 days.
So we've been told from day 1. They were never supposed to scoop up this many in the first place. If the end result is alead in the mid teens I'll hold my hands up as a negative ninny, but the huge labour rise was met with massive Tory complacency, and still is, trusting that the polls are wrong, or that the Ira stuff will finally hit home. Maybe it will, but with labour within 5-6 and no sign yet they are falllibg back, I'll be wary.
I'm not at all sure that much of this is to do with something so sophisticated as voters trying to deny the Tories a big majority. If you have a return to two-party politics, which is effectively the situation in the vast bulk of England and Wales (Scotland and Northern Ireland being, of course, almost on different planets politically,) then why bother to vote for anyone else? First the traditional third party collapsed in the last election, and then the alternative third party - which was arguably a single personality, single issue outfit - lost both the personality and the issue after the EU referendum. So, the right-leaning vote has coalesced around May, and the left-leaning vote has coalesced around Corbyn as the only possible answer to May.
Save in a handful of specific and isolated cases - e.g. Remainian SW London and the Welsh language heartland - the Parliamentary battle is almost entirely between those two power blocs, and we are therefore back to the situation where Con+Lab (again, in England and Wales, not the country as a whole) could make 85% again, and within that bulk of the population most will naturally gravitate towards one party or the other. At this point, it is worth noting that, in the period from 1945-1970 when the Con/Lab duopoly was at its height, the biggest winning margin in any General Election - that of Labour over the Conservatives and their allies in 1945 - was less than 10% in terms of share of the popular vote.
Given the historical precedents, if the Conservatives end up polling around 45% at the end of all off this, then perhaps we ought not to view a Labour share of 35% (or even a little better) as especially surprising, even given the weaknesses and divisive nature of the Labour leadership?
Your logic projected forward requires Labour to pull together under Corbyn (or whichever left wing successor the membership chooses) after the GE. If by some miracle they are in or close to power, this won't be a problem.
If, however, they are stuck still 10% behind, the so-called moderates are going to find having to knuckle down and keep quiet for four/five years very difficult. In their minds they could be stuck at 35% for ever. If, on the other hand, they try to use party rules to recapture the leadership, despite the left having well topped Brown and Miliband's performances, there is going to be trouble....
"Mr. Blue, I'm having some difficulty believing Labour are on 37%."
No one inspires. Labour have offered some 'comfortable' policies. Roger may be able to advise, but I've noticed many adverts now run the line ..."You deserve it." I assumed that was just for the Snowflake generation but maybe not.
You make an interesting point. This is the age of high self esteem. Or at least that's the ambition 'Because I'm Worth It...' has become one of the most famous slogans of all time
Its the combination of "Because I'm worth it" and "Don't put it off, put it on" which is so dangerous.
It led to "I want, I want, I want" and politicians willing to pander to it.
It's always thought that advertisers merely reflect or articulate the zeitgeist but I would argue they also create it. L'Oreal is interesting but the Dove campaign is even more so. The reason I suspect is that advertising represents the cutting edge of metropolitan society which is traditionally more enlightened. So whereas the Mail or Sun can still laugh about body shape no one is in any doubt that it's primitive.
Ha, so says the advertising guy!
Did you have a good day out in Monaco over the weekend?
Don may be completely right about how fragile the economy is the problem is who could possibly believe things could be any better under Corbyn? What unites the Corbyn brigade is a hatred of British history and modern British govts since Wilson.If Corbyn becomes the next govt his support base will start fighting each other over Brexit,taxes,public spending,defence etc The original Tory mantra `a Corbyn coalition of chaos` still rings true .The other mantra half `a strong and stable May govt` does not.Neither Corbyn or May will be their party leader at the next election.Question is who will go first?
Millions believe it of Corbyn, that it will be better,
Perhaps worth noting that the two biggest clangers in recent elections (the EdStone and May's social care self-harming) were both suggested by special advisers rather than current or former politicians.
The ed stone was definitely the source of hilarious jokes and ridicule... But do you think it actually changed votes? I'd put Liam Byrne's - there is no money left in as a bigger clanger personally.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
I saw this morning's embargoed poll while sitting in bed. Good job I am not a Tory, or a change of sheets would have been required.
A lot of people thought we might hit crossover at the weekend.
That, so far, hasn't happened. Some slightly disappointing polls but others point to a large majority.
Although no Tories wanted the polls to narrow, they're not in the danger zone yet.
A lead of 6-14% is hardly a disaster.
And if the lead goes down to 3? Less?
May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.
And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.
If it lead goes down to 3 then it's game on. However, none of us at this stage can say that is going to happen. At the moment we're in 6-14% territory and that suggests anything from a modest to very good victory.
"Mr. Blue, I'm having some difficulty believing Labour are on 37%."
No one inspires. Labour have offered some 'comfortable' policies. Roger may be able to advise, but I've noticed many adverts now run the line ..."You deserve it." I assumed that was just for the Snowflake generation but maybe not.
You make an interesting point. This is the age of high self esteem. Or at least that's the ambition 'Because I'm Worth It...' has become one of the most famous slogans of all time
Its the combination of "Because I'm worth it" and "Don't put it off, put it on" which is so dangerous.
It led to "I want, I want, I want" and politicians willing to pander to it.
It's always thought that advertisers merely reflect or articulate the zeitgeist but I would argue they also create it. L'Oreal is interesting but the Dove campaign is even more so. The reason I suspect is that advertising represents the cutting edge of metropolitan society which is traditionally more enlightened. So whereas the Mail or Sun can still laugh about body shape no one is in any doubt that it's primitive.
Ha, so says the advertising guy!
Did you have a good day out in Monaco over the weekend?
Much too noisy!
All the F1 fans hate the new hybrid engines they've used for the past three years, mainly because they're so much quieter than the old screaming V8s and V10s that preceded them!
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
I find it fascinating that they're still focusing on that sort of seat. Delusions of landslide or backed up by private polling? Difficult to say,l.
The other point I'd make is that we have expectations management in the last week of labour 140 from one side and Labour lead in the polls from the other. It's not remotely credible for both those to be true or likely so the truth, again, must lie between. I.e. labour 200, majority high double figures.
I saw this morning's embargoed poll while sitting in bed. Good job I am not a Tory, or a change of sheets would have been required.
A lot of people thought we might hit crossover at the weekend.
That, so far, hasn't happened. Some slightly disappointing polls but others point to a large majority.
Although no Tories wanted the polls to narrow, they're not in the danger zone yet.
A lead of 6-14% is hardly a disaster.
And if the lead goes down to 3? Less?
May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.
And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.
If it lead goes down to 3 then it's game on. However, none of us at this stage can say that is going to happen. At the moment we're in 6-14% territory and that suggests anything from a modest to very good victory.
It's been down to 5 once already. And more at the lower end than the top end. Hence why the Tories need a pollster that was showing mid single digits to return to double digits, to settle nerves about the direction of travel.
The new (Spanish, by the way) CEO of the merged BA/Iberia operation has been a manic cost-cutter, hence having to pay for a sandwich and a beer on short-haul flights these days.
Don't be surprised if he doesn't last the week, this looks like a monumental screwup that's going to cost an estimated £200m. Outsourcing most of their IT services might have saved 10% of what they've lost this week, before they start on the immeasurable lost goodwill of tens of thousands of unhappy customers.
Do you have an idea of what happened? The reporting is very vague.
I posted one suggestion up the thread, but there's little firm information at this stage. Partly because most of their IT is in India and don't know any British journalists, but mostly because they're a heavily regulated industry and the precise nature of the issue is possibly a determinant of the level of compensation and fines resulting from the outage.
Thanks. I missed your original post. That suggestion makes sense IMO. Potentially a cascade effect. Still don't understand why it took several days to bring a core system back online.
Wasn't there a bank in Northern Ireland that locked customers or of their accounts for a whole month? BA are speedy in comparison.
Old Ma Dura_Ace is a one woman focus group and political bellwether - she has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1955. Her comment on May today was, "She's gone Maggie Arrogant without actually achieving anything.
I saw this morning's embargoed poll while sitting in bed. Good job I am not a Tory, or a change of sheets would have been required.
A lot of people thought we might hit crossover at the weekend.
That, so far, hasn't happened. Some slightly disappointing polls but others point to a large majority.
Although no Tories wanted the polls to narrow, they're not in the danger zone yet.
A lead of 6-14% is hardly a disaster.
And if the lead goes down to 3? Less?
May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.
And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.
If it lead goes down to 3 then it's game on. However, none of us at this stage can say that is going to happen. At the moment we're in 6-14% territory and that suggests anything from a modest to very good victory.
It's been down to 5 once already. And more at the lower end than the top end. Hence why the Tories need a pollster that was showing mid single digits to return to double digits, to settle nerves about the direction of travel.
But any polling for the next week will be conducted either over the bank holiday or during half term; no pollster's going to get a reliable sample (especially on-line I'd suggest).
CCHQ are still sending people to Bolsover, which gives me an inkling that they have canvass returns that suggest something significantly different from the polls. Either that or they're sending Leadsom somewhere she can't do much damage!!
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
I find it fascinating that they're still focusing on that sort of seat. Delusions of landslide or backed up by private polling? Difficult to say,l.
Its the sort of seat which could go Conservative if ICM are right.
One thing I'm confident about is that UNS will not apply at this election.
Last night a Tory source told the Daily Mail: ‘We fully expect to fall behind Labour in a poll in the coming days. It will happen.’
Impact management. So a 6% lead looks good. If mums are returning to Labour, this could turn the election.
However, the Tories will still win. Under 50 majority is possible.
What a waste of an election where 30-50 is possible. Yes it's better fircmay, but is an increase that small worth losing months of negotiation time and other work, particularly when you're not safe from rebellions with areas like that?
A lot of hassle for an extra year (2021 being most likely, now that FTPA has been shown ineffective; election talk will certainly start then)
Not if labour are leading polls by then.
And if they truly only 6 behind now, they will be ahead by then.
That depends entirely on how Labour reacts to a third crushing defeat/the heroic first stage of the revolution (delete according to your wing of the party)
Old Ma Dura_Ace is a one woman focus group and political bellwether - she has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1955. Her comment on May today was, "She's gone Maggie Arrogant without actually achieving anything.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
I find it fascinating that they're still focusing on that sort of seat. Delusions of landslide or backed up by private polling? Difficult to say,l.
Its the sort of seat which could go Conservative if ICM are right.
One thing I'm confident about is that UNS will not apply at this election.
I saw this morning's embargoed poll while sitting in bed. Good job I am not a Tory, or a change of sheets would have been required.
A lot of people thought we might hit crossover at the weekend.
That, so far, hasn't happened. Some slightly disappointing polls but others point to a large majority.
Although no Tories wanted the polls to narrow, they're not in the danger zone yet.
A lead of 6-14% is hardly a disaster.
And if the lead goes down to 3? Less?
May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.
And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.
If it lead goes down to 3 then it's game on. However, none of us at this stage can say that is going to happen. At the moment we're in 6-14% territory and that suggests anything from a modest to very good victory.
It's been down to 5 once already. And more at the lower end than the top end. Hence why the Tories need a pollster that was showing mid single digits to return to double digits, to settle nerves about the direction of travel.
But any polling for the next week will be conducted either over the bank holiday or during half term; no pollster's going to get a reliable sample (especially on-line I'd suggest).
CCHQ are still sending people to Bolsover, which gives me an inkling that they have canvass returns that suggest something significantly different from the polls. Either that or they're sending Leadsom somewhere she can't do much damage!!
Old Ma Dura_Ace is a one woman focus group and political bellwether - she has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1955. Her comment on May today was, "She's gone Maggie Arrogant without actually achieving anything.
So who has she said is going to win?
She switched from Con to Lab over the Dementia Tax..
I saw this morning's embargoed poll while sitting in bed. Good job I am not a Tory, or a change of sheets would have been required.
A lot of people thought we might hit crossover at the weekend.
That, so far, hasn't happened. Some slightly disappointing polls but others point to a large majority.
Although no Tories wanted the polls to narrow, they're not in the danger zone yet.
A lead of 6-14% is hardly a disaster.
And if the lead goes down to 3? Less?
May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.
And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.
If it lead goes down to 3 then it's game on. However, none of us at this stage can say that is going to happen. At the moment we're in 6-14% territory and that suggests anything from a modest to very good victory.
It's been down to 5 once already. And more at the lower end than the top end. Hence why the Tories need a pollster that was showing mid single digits to return to double digits, to settle nerves about the direction of travel.
But any polling for the next week will be conducted either over the bank holiday or during half term; no pollster's going to get a reliable sample (especially on-line I'd suggest).
CCHQ are still sending people to Bolsover, which gives me an inkling that they have canvass returns that suggest something significantly different from the polls. Either that or they're sending Leadsom somewhere she can't do much damage!!
As myself and MarqueeMark have been posting, the doorstep reaction is nothing like the polls. Visceral dislike of Corbyn (and especially Abbott). I've yet to canvass a 2015 UKIPer who wasn't switching. Lots of 'Im voting for Theresa, I've never voted Tory before'.
The polls (ICM excepted) are not only seemingly disagreeing with this, the headline VIs seem to be disagreeing with the sort of supplementaries we'd expect to accompany them. I think ICM are going to have a great night come June 8th...
Old Ma Dura_Ace is a one woman focus group and political bellwether - she has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1955. Her comment on May today was, "She's gone Maggie Arrogant without actually achieving anything.
So who has she said is going to win?
She switched from Con to Lab over the Dementia Tax..
I saw this morning's embargoed poll while sitting in bed. Good job I am not a Tory, or a change of sheets would have been required.
A lot of people thought we might hit crossover at the weekend.
That, so far, hasn't happened. Some slightly disappointing polls but others point to a large majority.
Although no Tories wanted the polls to narrow, they're not in the danger zone yet.
A lead of 6-14% is hardly a disaster.
And if the lead goes down to 3? Less?
May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.
And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.
If it lead goes down to 3 then it's game on. However, none of us at this stage can say that is going to happen. At the moment we're in 6-14% territory and that suggests anything from a modest to very good victory.
It's been down to 5 once already. And more at the lower end than the top end. Hence why the Tories need a pollster that was showing mid single digits to return to double digits, to settle nerves about the direction of travel.
Speaking as a Tory, I don't need that. We started off in a commanding position. We needlessly gave up significant ground thanks to Nick Timothy, but the fundamentals of leadership and the economy still favour us. If the public want JC as PM after all that's been revealed about him, that's their choice.
I saw this morning's embargoed poll while sitting in bed. Good job I am not a Tory, or a change of sheets would have been required.
A lot of people thought we might hit crossover at the weekend.
That, so far, hasn't happened. Some slightly disappointing polls but others point to a large majority.
Although no Tories wanted the polls to narrow, they're not in the danger zone yet.
A lead of 6-14% is hardly a disaster.
And if the lead goes down to 3? Less?
May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.
And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.
If it lead goes down to 3 then it's game on. However, none of us at this stage can say that is going to happen. At the moment we're in 6-14% territory and that suggests anything from a modest to very good victory.
It's been down to 5 once already. And more at the lower end than the top end. Hence why the Tories need a pollster that was showing mid single digits to return to double digits, to settle nerves about the direction of travel.
But any polling for the next week will be conducted either over the bank holiday or during half term; no pollster's going to get a reliable sample (especially on-line I'd suggest).
CCHQ are still sending people to Bolsover, which gives me an inkling that they have canvass returns that suggest something significantly different from the polls. Either that or they're sending Leadsom somewhere she can't do much damage!!
It's next to North East Derbyshire as well.
That makes more sense; although I'd have thought Mansfield was a more logical stopping-off point than Bolsover...
One cautionary note about doorstep reaction. It's not terribly good at picking up the youth intention. Either their parents respond or they don't bother answering. It really is down to youth turnout.
So, other than this enbargoed poll, any more incoming? Tories need things to at at least stop getting worse. Some polls have been ok, but they really need so e the ones that have shown labour within 5-6 to return to around 10 . Otherwise it's still a question of which methodology is right, not an indication the rot has been stopped,
Monday is usually ICM/Guardian day... But as its bank holiday we'll probably not have that poll today.
Morning GIN, saves a minute or two of your life , we could do with less horse manure.
In many seats tge tory candidates are rwally concerned because absolutley no persinal literature with their name being prominent has been allowed to go out by CCHQ. So ib many target seats and marginals most people have no idea if the name of the Tory candidate apart from the fact that they are Theresa Mays candidate. Its pretty bonkers
I saw this morning's embargoed poll while sitting in bed. Good job I am not a Tory, or a change of sheets would have been required.
A lot of people thought we might hit crossover at the weekend.
That, so far, hasn't happened. Some slightly disappointing polls but others point to a large majority.
Although no Tories wanted the polls to narrow, they're not in the danger zone yet.
A lead of 6-14% is hardly a disaster.
And if the lead goes down to 3? Less?
May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.
And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.
If it lead goes down to 3 then it's game on. However, none of us at this stage can say that is going to happen. At the moment we're in 6-14% territory and that suggests anything from a modest to very good victory.
It's been down to 5 once already. And more at the lower end than the top end. Hence why the Tories need a pollster that was showing mid single digits to return to double digits, to settle nerves about the direction of travel.
But any polling for the next week will be conducted either over the bank holiday or during half term; no pollster's going to get a reliable sample (especially on-line I'd suggest).
CCHQ are still sending people to Bolsover, which gives me an inkling that they have canvass returns that suggest something significantly different from the polls. Either that or they're sending Leadsom somewhere she can't do much damage!!
Ha, possibly.
I will freely concede to have been silly and over reacting should the end result end up, say, 10-15, with Labour well below 200. I am still predicting Tories by 50-70 (closer to 50 than 70). If they are not panicking and those seats are still in play, well done them. Although Crosby getting his excuses in already looks like while they'll win seats like that are not in play.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
Even in this miserably untalented Tory cabinet Andrea Leadsom is not exactly the A Team. She has a rock solid majority and has to do something between now and polling day. I would not read too much into it :-)
I saw this morning's embargoed poll while sitting in bed. Good job I am not a Tory, or a change of sheets would have been required.
A lot of people thought we might hit crossover at the weekend.
That, so far, hasn't happened. Some slightly disappointing polls but others point to a large majority.
Although no Tories wanted the polls to narrow, they're not in the danger zone yet.
A lead of 6-14% is hardly a disaster.
And if the lead goes down to 3? Less?
May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.
And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.
If it lead goes down to 3 then it's game on. However, none of us at this stage can say that is going to happen. At the moment we're in 6-14% territory and that suggests anything from a modest to very good victory.
It's been down to 5 once already. And more at the lower end than the top end. Hence why the Tories need a pollster that was showing mid single digits to return to double digits, to settle nerves about the direction of travel.
But any polling for the next week will be conducted either over the bank holiday or during half term; no pollster's going to get a reliable sample (especially on-line I'd suggest).
CCHQ are still sending people to Bolsover, which gives me an inkling that they have canvass returns that suggest something significantly different from the polls. Either that or they're sending Leadsom somewhere she can't do much damage!!
Last night a Tory source told the Daily Mail: ‘We fully expect to fall behind Labour in a poll in the coming days. It will happen.’
Impact management. So a 6% lead looks good. If mums are returning to Labour, this could turn the election.
However, the Tories will still win. Under 50 majority is possible.
What a waste of an election where 30-50 is possible. Yes it's better fircmay, but is an increase that small worth losing months of negotiation time and other work, particularly when you're not safe from rebellions with areas like that?
Theresa May has shown absolutely no interest in negotiation so far, or indeed engagement in Brexit generally.It worries me. As she will be leading this, what would get her to step up to the plate?
Isn't it also a consequence of globalisation? And from the point of view of India, it is investment - in jobs there.
The late 90s saw a mass rush of outsourcing IT operations to India. The late 00s saw a realisation that that was a stupid idea that cost more than it saved and a mass re-patriation of IT operations back into the core function of the business occured.
I'm flabbergasted that BA thought outsourcing IT would be a good idea in the space year 2016.
Last night a Tory source told the Daily Mail: ‘We fully expect to fall behind Labour in a poll in the coming days. It will happen.’
Impact management. So a 6% lead looks good. If mums are returning to Labour, this could turn the election.
However, the Tories will still win. Under 50 majority is possible.
What a waste of an election where 30-50 is possible. Yes it's better fircmay, but is an increase that small worth losing months of negotiation time and other work, particularly when you're not safe from rebellions with areas like that?
A lot of hassle for an extra year (2021 being most likely, now that FTPA has been shown ineffective; election talk will certainly start then)
Not if labour are leading polls by then.
And if they truly only 6 behind now, they will be ahead by then.
That depends entirely on how Labour reacts to a third crushing defeat/the heroic first stage of the revolution (delete according to your wing of the party)
Well, if they're only 6% behind, they certainly aren't going to split.
In many seats tge tory candidates are rwally concerned because absolutley no persinal literature with their name being prominent has been allowed to go out by CCHQ. So ib many target seats and marginals most people have no idea if the name of the Tory candidate apart from the fact that they are Theresa Mays candidate. Its pretty bonkers
I'm pretty much in Tory target #1, the propaganda received here has been fine.
So I think a Lab surge will hit the SNP hard as a huge proportion of their voters ate 2010 Lab voters. Split votes will let Cons come through the middle and take a swathe of seats.
So, other than this enbargoed poll, any more incoming? Tories need things to at at least stop getting worse. Some polls have been ok, but they really need so e the ones that have shown labour within 5-6 to return to around 10 . Otherwise it's still a question of which methodology is right, not an indication the rot has been stopped,
Monday is usually ICM/Guardian day... But as its bank holiday we'll probably not have that poll today.
Morning GIN, saves a minute or two of your life , we could do with less horse manure.
Mr. CD13, you may, depressingly, be right. Throwing endless free stuff at people, where the 'free' part is their own taxes being recycled through the state and massive increased borrowing, appears alarmingly popular.
Morris 10 years of no real real wage increases must have some effect eventually.British workers face worst decade for pay in 70 years .
It is, of course, worth remembering that this trend is not restricted to the UK. It also occurred in the US, Japan, and most of the Eurozone.
Did it happen to executive earnings ?
It's a good question. And although it's counter-intuitive, I wouldn't be surprised if executive pay was down on the level of a decade ago. It's just that absorbing a 10% decline in real earnings is a easier when you're on £1m/year, rather than £16,000.
They also have much more scope to ramp up their earnings in good times - "We have to pay the going rate for world class talent".
And it's not just direct earnings - it's wealth. You do not notice a smaller pay package if your stock options are going through the roof, your pension pot is growing nicely and the value of your property is climbing.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
Even in this miserably untalented Tory cabinet Andrea Leadsom is not exactly the A Team. She has a rock solid majority and has to do something between now and polling day. I would not read too much into it :-)
I'm not sure about the suit and shirt for Bolsover canvassing mind. This is more the look for Brexitshire
I said means testing the winter fuel allowance was a disaster from the moment it was announced.
Sir Lynton should put me on the payroll...
A good policy but poor politics. An outbreak of honesty that politically they thought they could weather.
The only way you can take away the pensioner perks (and they do need taking away) is to "ween" people off them gradually... And you do that by not offering them (or means testing them) to new claimants and waiting for the pensioners who are currently getting them to die off.
You can't just come along and snatch them off people who have had them for years and not expect a terrible backlash,
GIN, surprised you are supporting starving pensioners till they die to save on pensions they have paid for, did not have you down as one of the Tories.
In many seats tge tory candidates are rwally concerned because absolutley no persinal literature with their name being prominent has been allowed to go out by CCHQ. So ib many target seats and marginals most people have no idea if the name of the Tory candidate apart from the fact that they are Theresa Mays candidate. Its pretty bonkers
This Alex Cruz has turned flying with BA from mildly pleasurable to absolutely horrendous. He came from Vueling which has to be the worst airline I have ever flown with. He must go he"a a disaster!
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
Even in this miserably untalented Tory cabinet Andrea Leadsom is not exactly the A Team. She has a rock solid majority and has to do something between now and polling day. I would not read too much into it :-)
I'm not sure about the suit and shirt for Bolsover canvassing mind. This is more the look for Brexitshire
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
I find it fascinating that they're still focusing on that sort of seat. Delusions of landslide or backed up by private polling? Difficult to say,l.
Its the sort of seat which could go Conservative if ICM are right.
One thing I'm confident about is that UNS will not apply at this election.
Bolsover doesn't appear in a list of top 100 Labour defences, i.e., seats that may be lost in a landslide of epic proportions
Just because Don Brind describes the economy as weak and shaky doesn't mean it is. We have record employment. How would Don describe Venezuela's economy?
I said means testing the winter fuel allowance was a disaster from the moment it was announced.
Sir Lynton should put me on the payroll...
A good policy but poor politics. An outbreak of honesty that politically they thought they could weather.
The only way you can take away the pensioner perks (and they do need taking away) is to "ween" people off them gradually... And you do that by not offering them (or means testing them) to new claimants and waiting for the pensioners who are currently getting them to die off.
You can't just come along and snatch them off people who have had them for years and not expect a terrible backlash,
GIN, surprised you are supporting starving pensioners till they die to save on pensions they have paid for, did not have you down as one of the Tories.
I do think generally the pensioners get a LOT (bus passes, free TV licences, fuel allowance, etc) compared to the "support" we give our young people.
My point is that nobody who is claiming all these things should have them snatched away from them... Because it's just too mean to do that when people are used to them.
I am open to the possibility of means testing the "perks" for new pensioners but not for existing claimants.
Old Ma Dura_Ace is a one woman focus group and political bellwether - she has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1955. Her comment on May today was, "She's gone Maggie Arrogant without actually achieving anything.
So who has she said is going to win?
She switched from Con to Lab over the Dementia Tax..
In which case she clearly doesn't understand it and neither do you. I would suggest her bellwether status is about to end in a quite dramatic manner.
Perhaps the wise plan for Theresa may would be to feign illness this evening. Otherwise I can't see her doing well in the grilling by Paxman or the questioning from the audience.
May has proved that she has feet of clay and her performance with Neil was well below what was expected. Her other hope lies in the fact that Paxman is a Tory and that there will be false neutrals in the audience who will have been planted by Crosby et al. This worked well against Ed Miliband but the audience could now be very aware of these tricks.
Corbyn needs to ditch the red tie and make sure he looks smart and then answer the questions in a confident manner. He will be attacked but he has become used to it, in a way the Tory attacks have improved his performance.
Furthermore and element of doubt has crept in when people are asked 'who do you want to be at the negotiating table at Brussels? ' May's wobbles have completely removed the 'strong and stable' slogan and Crick's 'weak and wobbly' is gaining traction
I was very sure that the Conservatives would win but now I'm not so sure as I was.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
I find it fascinating that they're still focusing on that sort of seat. Delusions of landslide or backed up by private polling? Difficult to say,l.
Its the sort of seat which could go Conservative if ICM are right.
One thing I'm confident about is that UNS will not apply at this election.
Bolsover doesn't appear in a list of top 100 Labour defences, i.e., seats that may be lost in a landslide of epic proportions
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
Even in this miserably untalented Tory cabinet Andrea Leadsom is not exactly the A Team. She has a rock solid majority and has to do something between now and polling day. I would not read too much into it :-)
I'm not sure about the suit and shirt for Bolsover canvassing mind. This is more the look for Brexitshire
Old Ma Dura_Ace is a one woman focus group and political bellwether - she has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1955. Her comment on May today was, "She's gone Maggie Arrogant without actually achieving anything.
So who has she said is going to win?
She switched from Con to Lab over the Dementia Tax..
In which case she clearly doesn't understand it and neither do you. I would suggest her bellwether status is about to end in a quite dramatic manner.
If she has or is likely to have dementia, it is in her interests to get the present system changed asap.
Or more accurately in Master Dura Ace’s interests, as it is his inheritance that May will be protecting
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
Even in this miserably untalented Tory cabinet Andrea Leadsom is not exactly the A Team. She has a rock solid majority and has to do something between now and polling day. I would not read too much into it :-)
I'm not sure about the suit and shirt for Bolsover canvassing mind. This is more the look for Brexitshire
This Alex Cruz has turned flying with BA from mildly pleasurable to absolutely horrendous. He came from Vueling which has to be the worst airline I have ever flown with. He must go he"a a disaster!
Yep - Vueling is a shocker. I flew Ryanair to Barcelona last week. You know what you are paying for and you get it. That is a lot better than being sold a what is supposed to be a premium product and being given something third rate. Even in business class - which I fly now and again with BA - you can see the decline. But it's still not as bad as the US carriers. They are utterly awful in every way imaginable.
Old Ma Dura_Ace is a one woman focus group and political bellwether - she has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1955. Her comment on May today was, "She's gone Maggie Arrogant without actually achieving anything.
So who has she said is going to win?
She switched from Con to Lab over the Dementia Tax..
In which case she clearly doesn't understand it and neither do you. I would suggest her bellwether status is about to end in a quite dramatic manner.
If people do not understand it, whose fault is that?
Comments
And if they truly only 6 behind now, they will be ahead by then.
Sir Lynton should put me on the payroll...
May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.
And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.
As for the question of who is right, as with everything it's probably some of all of it. I.e. an increased desire to vote amongst the young but not to the extent they state in polls. Most will say yes I'm voting in the run in but not all will and it will as ever be the young who are less likely, even with increased numbers actually doing it. Hence the midpoint seems likely so 10 points or so which would deliver a solid majority to landslide if differentials come in. As much as the youth vote might enthuse for Corbyn, the old vote will baulk at it.
The next 9 days will be very very negative campaigning by the blues. Bank the 44 and put the fear of God in the 38.
Of course I may be wrong and Labour surge ever more. Strange times.
What unites the Corbyn brigade is a hatred of British history and modern British govts since Wilson.If Corbyn becomes the next govt his support base will start fighting each other over Brexit,taxes,public spending,defence etc
The original Tory mantra `a Corbyn coalition of chaos` still rings true .The other mantra half `a strong and stable May govt` does not.Neither Corbyn or May will be their party leader at the next election.Question is who will go first?
You can't just come along and snatch them off people who have had them for years and not expect a terrible backlash,
Perhaps worth noting that the two biggest clangers in recent elections (the EdStone and May's social care self-harming) were both suggested by special advisers rather than current or former politicians.
Still below peak.
http://www.payscale.com/data-packages/ceo-pay
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willie_Walsh_(Irish_businessman)
https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/869118813991825408
If, however, they are stuck still 10% behind, the so-called moderates are going to find having to knuckle down and keep quiet for four/five years very difficult. In their minds they could be stuck at 35% for ever. If, on the other hand, they try to use party rules to recapture the leadership, despite the left having well topped Brown and Miliband's performances, there is going to be trouble....
Wasn't there a bank in Northern Ireland that locked customers or of their accounts for a whole month? BA are speedy in comparison.
Mr. rkrkrk, hard to assess that note in electoral terms but it certainly didn't help Labour.
I think the EdStone solidified Miliband's position as a silly sausage in the eyes of the electorate.
CCHQ are still sending people to Bolsover, which gives me an inkling that they have canvass returns that suggest something significantly different from the polls. Either that or they're sending Leadsom somewhere she can't do much damage!!
One thing I'm confident about is that UNS will not apply at this election.
The polls (ICM excepted) are not only seemingly disagreeing with this, the headline VIs seem to be disagreeing with the sort of supplementaries we'd expect to accompany them. I think ICM are going to have a great night come June 8th...
Its pretty bonkers
I will freely concede to have been silly and over reacting should the end result end up, say, 10-15, with Labour well below 200. I am still predicting Tories by 50-70 (closer to 50 than 70). If they are not panicking and those seats are still in play, well done them. Although Crosby getting his excuses in already looks like while they'll win seats like that are not in play.
I'm flabbergasted that BA thought outsourcing IT would be a good idea in the space year 2016.
It was things like the Arizona trips or the completely fucking lack of Midwestern rust belt stops that lead me totally astray.
Not a fan of the Gold Standard then?
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/868832704997076992
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labour-defence/
How would Don describe Venezuela's economy?
My point is that nobody who is claiming all these things should have them snatched away from them... Because it's just too mean to do that when people are used to them.
I am open to the possibility of means testing the "perks" for new pensioners but not for existing claimants.
May has proved that she has feet of clay and her performance with Neil was well below what was expected. Her other hope lies in the fact that Paxman is a Tory and that there will be false neutrals in the audience who will have been planted by Crosby et al. This worked well against Ed Miliband but the audience could now be very aware of these tricks.
Corbyn needs to ditch the red tie and make sure he looks smart and then answer the questions in a confident manner. He will be attacked but he has become used to it, in a way the Tory attacks have improved his performance.
Furthermore and element of doubt has crept in when people are asked 'who do you want to be at the negotiating table at Brussels? ' May's wobbles have completely removed the 'strong and stable' slogan and Crick's 'weak and wobbly' is gaining traction
I was very sure that the Conservatives would win but now I'm not so sure as I was.
For example I expect Labour to hold Westminster North (21 on that list) even if the Conservatives have a majority of 100.
Or more accurately in Master Dura Ace’s interests, as it is his inheritance that May will be protecting