On topic: Labour are doing a surprisingly good job of selling full-on socialism to a significant chunk of the electorate. The promised jam tsunami paid for by someone else is clearly appealing to many. According to the Telegraph the surge is mostly female. Dumb heifers. It's sad to see how little some people seem able to learn from the examples of history. And...that nice Mrs May has made a bit of a clusterfuck of her campaign. She listened to Grimer Wormtongue instead of her colleagues. All the manifesto needed to be was a 'steady as she goes' Brexity affair. Instead she let some know-nothing REMF masturbate all over it. Not clever.
Yet another hypocrite who demands that the voters will be respected when they agree with you (Brexit) but labels them as stupid as soon as they don't
Mr. Roger, I can appreciate that. The noise would probably annoy me a lot if I actually went to a race.
Mr. rkrkrk, hard to assess that note in electoral terms but it certainly didn't help Labour.
I think the EdStone solidified Miliband's position as a silly sausage in the eyes of the electorate.
I can't believe you haven't been to a race! I haven't either but I went to a practice and it was unbearable. I don't think it's helped by how enclosed the track is. I noticed they sold headphones just after I left.
In many seats tge tory candidates are rwally concerned because absolutley no persinal literature with their name being prominent has been allowed to go out by CCHQ. So ib many target seats and marginals most people have no idea if the name of the Tory candidate apart from the fact that they are Theresa Mays candidate. Its pretty bonkers
I'm pretty much in Tory target #1, the propaganda received here has been fine.
The national campaign is putting out the national message. The local asssociation is charged with putting out local stuff. Here in Westmorland the problem was the time taken to approve the local stuff and THEN get it out.
Andrea Leadsome was campaigning in Kendal last week, apparently. Went down well - not sure the electors knew who she was.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
I find it fascinating that they're still focusing on that sort of seat. Delusions of landslide or backed up by private polling? Difficult to say,l.
Its the sort of seat which could go Conservative if ICM are right.
One thing I'm confident about is that UNS will not apply at this election.
Bolsover doesn't appear in a list of top 100 Labour defences, i.e., seats that may be lost in a landslide of epic proportions
My great mistake for the American election was assuming that Hillary was campaigning in rational locations.
She was in California & New York for a good deal of it wasn't she ?
That was fund raising, Trump also spent a lot of time there and Texas.
It was things like the Arizona trips or the completely fucking lack of Midwestern rust belt stops that lead me totally astray.
However, in 2015 the Tories were campaigning in Colchester, a seat I thought rock-solid. It was a Con Gain.
Granted, but we knew the LDs were taking a hammering from the polls, it was just expected in the seats they held they would do better, but they were clearly still worth going for. If the polls are right, and it is a big if, then Labour are surging, not collapsing, so expecting rock solid seats to switch makes less sense to focus on.
This Alex Cruz has turned flying with BA from mildly pleasurable to absolutely horrendous. He came from Vueling which has to be the worst airline I have ever flown with. He must go he"a a disaster!
Mr. Roger, I can appreciate that. The noise would probably annoy me a lot if I actually went to a race.
Mr. rkrkrk, hard to assess that note in electoral terms but it certainly didn't help Labour.
I think the EdStone solidified Miliband's position as a silly sausage in the eyes of the electorate.
I can't believe you haven't been to a race! I haven't either but I went to a practice and it was unbearable. I don't think it's helped by how enclosed the track is. I noticed they sold headphones just after I left.
Blimey, you would have hated it when they had proper engines. I can still remember hearing the screech of a V10 through the trees the first time I went to Spa. It's just not the same now.
One naturally worries about the worst numbers for one's own side, but the average post Manchester is still Con 44.4%, Lab 35.4%. Conservatives are up 6.6% on 2015, Labour up 4%.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?
It turned round for Major when he started doing those soapbox speeches in market squares. At the time the effect it had amazed me, since there were only a handful of them and he didn't say anything earth shattering. But I guess people like to see politicians mixing it with their voters. A lesson for Mrs May? (Although not one she'll want to hear)
I saw this morning's embargoed poll while sitting in bed. Good job I am not a Tory, or a change of sheets would have been required.
A lot of people thought we might hit crossover at the weekend.
That, so far, hasn't happened. Some slightly disappointing polls but others point to a large majority.
Although no Tories wanted the polls to narrow, they're not in the danger zone yet.
A lead of 6-14% is hardly a disaster.
And if the lead goes down to 3? Less?
May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.
And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.
If it lead goes down to 3 then it's game on. However, none of us at this stage can say that is going to happen. At the moment we're in 6-14% territory and that suggests anything from a modest to very good victory.
It's been down to 5 once already. And more at the lower end than the top end. Hence why the Tories need a pollster that was showing mid single digits to return to double digits, to settle nerves about the direction of travel.
If people are going to keep looking at the lead instead of the share, there's going to be a lot of unnecessary panic.
This poll (assuming it's been reported accurately but prematurely) is in line with Saturday's: the Tory share has stabilised at around 44%. That's enough for a comfortable majority.
This Alex Cruz has turned flying with BA from mildly pleasurable to absolutely horrendous. He came from Vueling which has to be the worst airline I have ever flown with. He must go he"a a disaster!
Yep - Vueling is a shocker. I flew Ryanair to Barcelona last week. You know what you are paying for and you get it. That is a lot better than being sold a what is supposed to be a premium product and being given something third rate. Even in business class - which I fly now and again with BA - you can see the decline. But it's still not as bad as the US carriers. They are utterly awful in every way imaginable.
Agreed. I've been flying BA club class for about 6 years, when I started they were really ahead of the game, the business bed was a revolutionary idea and they had begun to put AC sockets in business seats which was extremely handy, no other airline had these options, not even the heavily subsidised Arab ones. BA were pioneering and full of ideas. Nothing has changed since then, if anything it's gone backwards. No food/drink on economy short haul (which is a real irritation given how often I fly to and from London), the business bed has been adopted by all but the American carriers, AC sockets are standard on economy on the Arab carriers, the food in club class is appreciably worse this year than last year, the wine choices are more limited.
BA are in serial decline, they need to invest massively in updating their fleet and the cabins. The staff are the only thing that keeps this airline running and keeps me coming back. Always 100% first rate service, but everything else is falling to pieces.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Just because the polls are showing something doesn't mean that's what's gouing to happen on polling day.
In 1987 Kinnock was generally thought to have had a good campaign and Mrs Thatcher a very poor campaign. There were several polls through the 1987 campaign that had the Tories at just 5-7% leads though they ended up winning by around 12%....
In 1992 there was general media derision of John Major getting on his "soap box" in market and shire towns.
And we all know what everyone said about the 2010 and 2015 Con campaigns while they were taking place.
In many seats tge tory candidates are rwally concerned because absolutley no persinal literature with their name being prominent has been allowed to go out by CCHQ. So ib many target seats and marginals most people have no idea if the name of the Tory candidate apart from the fact that they are Theresa Mays candidate. Its pretty bonkers
I'm pretty much in Tory target #1, the propaganda received here has been fine.
The national campaign is putting out the national message. The local asssociation is charged with putting out local stuff. Here in Westmorland the problem was the time taken to approve the local stuff and THEN get it out.
Andrea Leadsome was campaigning in Kendal last week, apparently. Went down well - not sure the electors knew who she was.
The WORST campaign for the Tories - most complained about was 1992. Instead of decent photo ops and a good TV based national campaign Central Office was spending all its time persuading non-Tories to vote Tory. I suspect they are making the same mistake this year.
On topic: Labour are doing a surprisingly good job of selling full-on socialism to a significant chunk of the electorate. The promised jam tsunami paid for by someone else is clearly appealing to many. According to the Telegraph the surge is mostly female. Dumb heifers. It's sad to see how little some people seem able to learn from the examples of history. And...that nice Mrs May has made a bit of a clusterfuck of her campaign. She listened to Grimer Wormtongue instead of her colleagues. All the manifesto needed to be was a 'steady as she goes' Brexity affair. Instead she let some know-nothing REMF masturbate all over it. Not clever.
Yet another hypocrite who demands that the voters will be respected when they agree with you (Brexit) but labels them as stupid as soon as they don't
There is a right and a wrong to pretty much every political issue. Brexit is right. We can't be in a superstate. Socialism is wrong. Look what happens to any country that tries it. See? Not hard.
One naturally worries about the worst numbers for one's own side, but the average post Manchester is still Con 44.4%, Lab 35.4%.
May is more or less where she started off a month ago
that sort of says bar some wobbling she has a firm base
the issue has been the Corbyn rise, how much of this will turn up on the day remains to be seen
that said the Tories could have saved themselves a lot of trouble by having some sensible policies to appeal to across the age spectrum. Their campaign management has been rubbish
So I think a Lab surge will hit the SNP hard as a huge proportion of their voters ate 2010 Lab voters. Split votes will let Cons come through the middle and take a swathe of seats.
Old Ma Dura_Ace is a one woman focus group and political bellwether - she has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1955. Her comment on May today was, "She's gone Maggie Arrogant without actually achieving anything.
So who has she said is going to win?
She switched from Con to Lab over the Dementia Tax..
In which case she clearly doesn't understand it and neither do you. I would suggest her bellwether status is about to end in a quite dramatic manner.
If people do not understand it, whose fault is that?
I think people understand the Dementia Tax all too well. That was its massive flaw - assuming that people would put the good of the country ahead of the good of their entire family.
Money is tight and getting tighter. People will not sit idly by and watch the govt confiscate their inheritance.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?
One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.
But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.
The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
I don't think it is as simple as the Tories having a bad campaign. The Tory share has been fairly stable, but Labour are mopping up the Lib Dem vote (they are the party truly having a terrible campaign), and Labour are apparently getting a lot of don't votes saying they will vote.
I don't understand why Theresa May is planning to talk about domestic violence now.
She should be talking relentlessly about the economy, security and Brexit - and only those - over the next 10 days.
Nothing else.
I disagree. She's already miles ahead on those issues so those that care most about them are already locked in. She needs to convince waverers who like her security stance but are more persuaded by social issues. Nobody concerned about Brexit and security is hovering over the Corbyn box.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The 1992 Conservative campaign led by Chris Patten was successful.
It was but while the campaign was going on most "commentators" thought John Major on his soap box was silly and the campaign was poor - Labour thought they had it in the bag, hence Kinnocks disaster in Sheffield.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
I don't think it is as simple as the Tories having a bad campaign. The Tory share has been fairly stable, but Labour are mopping up the Lib Dem vote (they are the party truly having a terrible campaign), and Labour are apparently getting a lot of don't votes saying they will vote.
Yes, the centre has collapsed, hasn't it. It's a polarised and polarising election.
Mr. Roger, I can appreciate that. The noise would probably annoy me a lot if I actually went to a race.
Mr. rkrkrk, hard to assess that note in electoral terms but it certainly didn't help Labour.
I think the EdStone solidified Miliband's position as a silly sausage in the eyes of the electorate.
I can't believe you haven't been to a race! I haven't either but I went to a practice and it was unbearable. I don't think it's helped by how enclosed the track is. I noticed they sold headphones just after I left.
I've got a set of ear defenders with a built-in radio, so one can still hear the commentators. Don't really need them with these new quiet F1 cars though, the GP2 cars are the noisy ones these days.
The old F1 cars you used to feel through the ground, with a visceral scream of the wonderful V10 engines at 18,000rpm completely blowing your senses.
One cautionary note about doorstep reaction. It's not terribly good at picking up the youth intention. Either their parents respond or they don't bother answering. It really is down to youth turnout.
It is not down to youth turnout. High concentrations of youth vote are, with a handful of exceptions, in Uni seats - most of which are already solid Lab.
Many of these have broken up for the summer - which is very different to usual May elections (how long since we've had a GE not in May?).
Stoke Central, for example, is not going to be decided by youth turnout. Nor is Don Valley, Copeland etc etc etc
On topic: Labour are doing a surprisingly good job of selling full-on socialism to a significant chunk of the electorate. The promised jam tsunami paid for by someone else is clearly appealing to many. According to the Telegraph the surge is mostly female. Dumb heifers. It's sad to see how little some people seem able to learn from the examples of history. And...that nice Mrs May has made a bit of a clusterfuck of her campaign. She listened to Grimer Wormtongue instead of her colleagues. All the manifesto needed to be was a 'steady as she goes' Brexity affair. Instead she let some know-nothing REMF masturbate all over it. Not clever.
Yet another hypocrite who demands that the voters will be respected when they agree with you (Brexit) but labels them as stupid as soon as they don't
There is a right and a wrong to pretty much every political issue. Brexit is right. We can't be in a superstate. Socialism is wrong. Look what happens to any country that tries it. See? Not hard.
The UK is much more of a superstate than the EU so it's always been an odd criticism for anyone to make who doesn't favour breaking it up.
One naturally worries about the worst numbers for one's own side, but the average post Manchester is still Con 44.4%, Lab 35.4%.
May is more or less where she started off a month ago
that sort of says bar some wobbling she has a firm base
the issue has been the Corbyn rise, how much of this will turn up on the day remains to be seen
that said the Tories could have saved themselves a lot of trouble by having some sensible policies to appeal to across the age spectrum. Their campaign management has been rubbish
And it also explains why both sides are getting good canvassing reports. The Tories are picking up huge support from ex-UKIP voters, Labour are picking up support from some kippers, plus supporters for other left wing parties, plus former non-voters.
My great mistake for the American election was assuming that Hillary was campaigning in rational locations.
She was in California & New York for a good deal of it wasn't she ?
That was fund raising, Trump also spent a lot of time there and Texas.
It was things like the Arizona trips or the completely fucking lack of Midwestern rust belt stops that lead me totally astray.
However, in 2015 the Tories were campaigning in Colchester, a seat I thought rock-solid. It was a Con Gain.
Granted, but we knew the LDs were taking a hammering from the polls, it was just expected in the seats they held they would do better, but they were clearly still worth going for. If the polls are right, and it is a big if, then Labour are surging, not collapsing, so expecting rock solid seats to switch makes less sense to focus on.
But the surge, if real, is largely coming from younger voters. Unless those safe seats have a large proportion of 18-24 then they would still be vulnerable to a swing to the Conservatives. Bolsover doesn't have a particularly young demographic IIRC.
Over the campaign May has shown she is not a team player. Prsumably on the advice of Lynton Crosby she has cut out the Foreign Secretary and the Chancellor from the campaign.
Now her own position is being exposed as weak and wobbly she needs to show she is head of a stong and stable team.
But is it too late to change course and bring the rest of the team onto the pitch?
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
Time to abandon pie in the sky hopes in bolsover and the like. Unlike 2015 when we knew it would be bad for LDs from the polls, people just underestimated how bad, the labour surge means it is a waste to campaign in some high profile places.
I find it fascinating that they're still focusing on that sort of seat. Delusions of landslide or backed up by private polling? Difficult to say,l.
Its the sort of seat which could go Conservative if ICM are right.
One thing I'm confident about is that UNS will not apply at this election.
Bolsover doesn't appear in a list of top 100 Labour defences, i.e., seats that may be lost in a landslide of epic proportions
My great mistake for the American election was assuming that Hillary was campaigning in rational locations.
She was in California & New York for a good deal of it wasn't she ?
That was fund raising, Trump also spent a lot of time there and Texas.
It was things like the Arizona trips or the completely fucking lack of Midwestern rust belt stops that lead me totally astray.
However, in 2015 the Tories were campaigning in Colchester, a seat I thought rock-solid. It was a Con Gain.
Granted, but we knew the LDs were taking a hammering from the polls, it was just expected in the seats they held they would do better, but they were clearly still worth going for. If the polls are right, and it is a big if, then Labour are surging, not collapsing, so expecting rock solid seats to switch makes less sense to focus on.
But the surge, if real, is largely coming from 18-24. Unless those safe seats have a large proportion of 18-24 then they are vulnerable to a swing to the Conservatives. Bolsover doesn't have a particularly young demographic IIRC.
If the surge is comeing from 18 to 24 year olds, then surely Clegg and Mulholland are toast.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Just because the polls are showing something doesn't mean that's what's gouing to happen on polling day.
In 1987 Kinnock was generally thought to have had a good campaign and Mrs Thatcher a very poor campaign. There were several polls through the 1987 campaign that had the Tories at just 5-7% leads though they ended up winning by around 12%....
In 1992 there was general media derision of John Major getting on his "soap box" in market and shire towns.
And we all know what everyone said about the 2010 and 2015 Con campaigns while they were taking place.
May's going to win because Corbyn is unelectable but remember to get rid of her asap after the election. She could do fantastic harm to your party and the nation.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?
Major's result was good but we don't know how May's will compare with it.
For most of the 1992 campaign Labour had the lead and the Conservative campaign were criticized.
And were Kinnock's Labour that superior ? Kinnock was mocked as an ineffectual windbag, there was the Sheffield rally madness and they had to keep Shadow Foreign Secretary Gerald Kaufman hidden away from the public.
Over the campaign May has shown she is not a team player. Prsumably on the advice of Lynton Crosby she has cut out the Foreign Secretary and the Chancellor from the campaign.
Now her own position is being exposed as weak and wobbly she needs to show she is head of a stong and stable team.
But is it too late to change course and bring the rest of the team onto the pitch?
Hammond is such a dull person I don't think anybody would notice if he entered the fray anyway.
Mr. Roger, I can appreciate that. The noise would probably annoy me a lot if I actually went to a race.
Mr. rkrkrk, hard to assess that note in electoral terms but it certainly didn't help Labour.
I think the EdStone solidified Miliband's position as a silly sausage in the eyes of the electorate.
I can't believe you haven't been to a race! I haven't either but I went to a practice and it was unbearable. I don't think it's helped by how enclosed the track is. I noticed they sold headphones just after I left.
Blimey, you would have hated it when they had proper engines. I can still remember hearing the screech of a V10 through the trees the first time I went to Spa. It's just not the same now.
Well if those are the quiet version no wonder the top drivers get £30 million a year.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Just because the polls are showing something doesn't mean that's what's gouing to happen on polling day.
In 1987 Kinnock was generally thought to have had a good campaign and Mrs Thatcher a very poor campaign. There were several polls through the 1987 campaign that had the Tories at just 5-7% leads though they ended up winning by around 12%....
In 1992 there was general media derision of John Major getting on his "soap box" in market and shire towns.
And we all know what everyone said about the 2010 and 2015 Con campaigns while they were taking place.
May's going to win because Corbyn is unelectable but remember to get rid of her asap after the election. She could do fantastic harm to your party.
Actually, I'm not and never have been a member of the Tory Party... So what they do with their leader isn't something I'd ever have a say in.
I saw this morning's embargoed poll while sitting in bed. Good job I am not a Tory, or a change of sheets would have been required.
A lot of people thought we might hit crossover at the weekend.
That, so far, hasn't happened. Some slightly disappointing polls but others point to a large majority.
Although no Tories wanted the polls to narrow, they're not in the danger zone yet.
A lead of 6-14% is hardly a disaster.
And if the lead goes down to 3? Less?
May's not great thinking on her feet, nor is Corbyn but he's used to it, so there could be more bad headlines coming for the Tories.
And south Thanet, which works for Corbyn no matter the outcome - cheater Tories vs rigged system.
If
It's been down to 5 once already. And more at the lower end than the top end. Hence why the Tories need a pollster that was showing mid single digits to return to double digits, to settle nerves about the direction of travel.
But any polling for the next week will be conducted either over the bank holiday or during half term; no pollster's going to get a reliable sample (especially on-line I'd suggest).
CCHQ are still sending people to Bolsover, which gives me an inkling that they have canvass returns that suggest something significantly different from the polls. Either that or they're sending Leadsom somewhere she can't do much damage!!
As myself and MarqueeMark have been posting, the doorstep reaction is nothing like the polls. Visceral dislike of Corbyn (and especially Abbott). I've yet to canvass a 2015 UKIPer who wasn't switching. Lots of 'Im voting for Theresa, I've never voted Tory before'.
The polls (ICM excepted) are not only seemingly disagreeing with this, the headline VIs seem to be disagreeing with the sort of supplementaries we'd expect to accompany them. I think ICM are going to have a great night come June 8th...
We have lots of other recent evidence for this too. The Copeland by-election. The local elections from earlier this month, where we all recognised a Tory victory in Birmingham and Tees Valley pointed to a landslide, and supplementaries on leadership and best on the economy ratings.
It's possible that's all wrong and there has been a landslide switch in public opinion over the last 10-11 days that will cripple May's next Government.
Personally, I doubt it, except a lot of the sheen has come off Theresa and there has been a strong rally of the Left-wing base to Labour.
Over the campaign May has shown she is not a team player. Prsumably on the advice of Lynton Crosby she has cut out the Foreign Secretary and the Chancellor from the campaign.
Now her own position is being exposed as weak and wobbly she needs to show she is head of a stong and stable team.
But is it too late to change course and bring the rest of the team onto the pitch?
Hammond is such a dull person I don't think anybody would notice if he entered the fray anyway.
Old Ma Dura_Ace is a one woman focus group and political bellwether - she has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1955. Her comment on May today was, "She's gone Maggie Arrogant without actually achieving anything.
So who has she said is going to win?
She switched from Con to Lab over the Dementia Tax..
In which case she clearly doesn't understand it and neither do you. I would suggest her bellwether status is about to end in a quite dramatic manner.
If people do not understand it, whose fault is that?
I think people understand the Dementia Tax all too well. That was its massive flaw - assuming that people would put the good of the country ahead of the good of their entire family.
Money is tight and getting tighter. People will not sit idly by and watch the govt confiscate their inheritance.
Most people don't how the care of the elderly is paid for.
Once it is explained that ordinary tax payers are being asked to pay for the upkeep of wealthy older people so that those people can save their own money to pass on a greater unearned and undeserved inheritance to their children then attitudes will change.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?
One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.
But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.
The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.
Maybe May should get back to talking about Brexit, which after all was the reason she gave for calling the election.
The Manifesto was a disaster and the attempt to depict Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser hasn't resonated. Perhaps if she were to re-emphasise the importance of a large majority in her forthcoming negotiations with the EU the voters would be more responsive.
Yes, the centre has collapsed, hasn't it. It's a polarised and polarising election.
Must be the fashion.
By far the most perplexing thing about this election to me is the failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Remain support. I honestly thought they would get a decent boost, and maybe even give Labour a run for vote share if not seats. Instead the Lib Dems appear to have gone backwards. But my hunch is the Lib Dems might do a bit better on the day than the polls suggest, as I can see a few waverers thinking "I'll tick the harmless box".
With the Tories polling mid 40s this is absolutely not the time for them to go core vote strategy. It's the time to persuade those that have never voted Tory to do so whilst allowing Corbyn to be demonised/doubts sown. How the last week plays out will be most informative as to expectations.
This Alex Cruz has turned flying with BA from mildly pleasurable to absolutely horrendous. He came from Vueling which has to be the worst airline I have ever flown with. He must go he"a a disaster!
Yep - Vueling is a shocker. I flew Ryanair to Barcelona last week. You know what you are paying for and you get it. That is a lot better than being sold a what is supposed to be a premium product and being given something third rate. Even in business class - which I fly now and again with BA - you can see the decline. But it's still not as bad as the US carriers. They are utterly awful in every way imaginable.
Agreed. I've been flying BA club class for about 6 years, when I started they were really ahead of the game, the business bed was a revolutionary idea and they had begun to put AC sockets in business seats which was extremely handy, no other airline had these options, not even the heavily subsidised Arab ones. BA were pioneering and full of ideas. Nothing has changed since then, if anything it's gone backwards. No food/drink on economy short haul (which is a real irritation given how often I fly to and from London), the business bed has been adopted by all but the American carriers, AC sockets are standard on economy on the Arab carriers, the food in club class is appreciably worse this year than last year, the wine choices are more limited.
BA are in serial decline, they need to invest massively in updating their fleet and the cabins. The staff are the only thing that keeps this airline running and keeps me coming back. Always 100% first rate service, but everything else is falling to pieces.
Yep - BA staff are a cut above. But they are treated like crap by management, too. The club class service has definitely declined. People notice these things. What BA does have going for it - for now, at least - is a relatively generous Points package. I reckon it's that which keeps a lot of the premium customers coming back.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Just because the polls are showing something doesn't mean that's what's gouing to happen on polling day.
In 1987 Kinnock was generally thought to have had a good campaign and Mrs Thatcher a very poor campaign. There were several polls through the 1987 campaign that had the Tories at just 5-7% leads though they ended up winning by around 12%....
In 1992 there was general media derision of John Major getting on his "soap box" in market and shire towns.
And we all know what everyone said about the 2010 and 2015 Con campaigns while they were taking place.
May's going to win because Corbyn is unelectable but remember to get rid of her asap after the election. She could do fantastic harm to your party and the nation.
Hopefully the beginning of June will be the end of May.
On topic: Labour are doing a surprisingly good job of selling full-on socialism to a significant chunk of the electorate. The promised jam tsunami paid for by someone else is clearly appealing to many. According to the Telegraph the surge is mostly female. Dumb heifers. It's sad to see how little some people seem able to learn from the examples of history. And...that nice Mrs May has made a bit of a clusterfuck of her campaign. She listened to Grimer Wormtongue instead of her colleagues. All the manifesto needed to be was a 'steady as she goes' Brexity affair. Instead she let some know-nothing REMF masturbate all over it. Not clever.
Yet another hypocrite who demands that the voters will be respected when they agree with you (Brexit) but labels them as stupid as soon as they don't
There is a right and a wrong to pretty much every political issue. Brexit is right. We can't be in a superstate. Socialism is wrong. Look what happens to any country that tries it. See? Not hard.
The UK is much more of a superstate than the EU so it's always been an odd criticism for anyone to make who doesn't favour breaking it up.
We are a single demos (albeit somewhat under strain in Scotland) and a real democracy. You can kick the buggers out here. Therefore a unitary state. A united kingdom. It's been stable for centuries. None of these are true in the EU. Which will not last beyond our lifetimes.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?
One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.
But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.
The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.
Well when you've got some bloke at the end of the road flogging £10 notes at £5 a time it's not surprising he's attracting some interest.
On topic: Labour are doing a surprisingly good job of selling full-on socialism to a significant chunk of the electorate. The promised jam tsunami paid for by someone else is clearly appealing to many. According to the Telegraph the surge is mostly female. Dumb heifers. It's sad to see how little some people seem able to learn from the examples of history. And...that nice Mrs May has made a bit of a clusterfuck of her campaign. She listened to Grimer Wormtongue instead of her colleagues. All the manifesto needed to be was a 'steady as she goes' Brexity affair. Instead she let some know-nothing REMF masturbate all over it. Not clever.
When people think they have nothing to lose they'll look for new options.
And there are fundamental issues that few establishment politicians wish to think about - an unbalanced economy, inter-generational inequality, falling home ownership, stagnating earnings (except for the 1%), the loss of hope for the future.
Spot on. The anti-establishment candidate in this election is Jeremy Corbyn.
The Brexit right establishment is merely discovering it does not fully control the narrative. If we end up with a diamond hard Brexit expect that to come back and bite.
Yes. This is the appeal.
On the flip side, he doesn't have the right demographics on his side.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Just because the polls are showing something doesn't mean that's what's gouing to happen on polling day.
In 1987 Kinnock was generally thought to have had a good campaign and Mrs Thatcher a very poor campaign. There were several polls through the 1987 campaign that had the Tories at just 5-7% leads though they ended up winning by around 12%....
In 1992 there was general media derision of John Major getting on his "soap box" in market and shire towns.
And we all know what everyone said about the 2010 and 2015 Con campaigns while they were taking place.
May's going to win because Corbyn is unelectable but remember to get rid of her asap after the election. She could do fantastic harm to your party and the nation.
Hopefully the beginning of June will be the end of May.
Over the campaign May has shown she is not a team player. Prsumably on the advice of Lynton Crosby she has cut out the Foreign Secretary and the Chancellor from the campaign.
Now her own position is being exposed as weak and wobbly she needs to show she is head of a stong and stable team.
But is it too late to change course and bring the rest of the team onto the pitch?
Hammond is such a dull person I don't think anybody would notice if he entered the fray anyway.
Boris probably should be deployed though...
Have the tories not lost enough ground already?
People criticize Boris but the fact is he can reach parts of the electorate other politicians can't reach.
Yes, the centre has collapsed, hasn't it. It's a polarised and polarising election.
Must be the fashion.
By far the most perplexing thing about this election to me is the failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Remain support. I honestly thought they would get a decent boost, and maybe even give Labour a run for vote share if not seats. Instead the Lib Dems appear to have gone backwards. But my hunch is the Lib Dems might do a bit better on the day than the polls suggest, as I can see a few waverers thinking "I'll tick the harmless box".
I'm exactly the sort of voter you had in mind. I normally vote Labour but my local MP is a Labour Brexiteer, so I voted LD this time. Seems that very few are doing likewise though.
Maybe the FPTP system renders such protest votes so ineffectual that people are not inclined to use them that way.
Old Ma Dura_Ace is a one woman focus group and political bellwether - she has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1955. Her comment on May today was, "She's gone Maggie Arrogant without actually achieving anything.
So who has she said is going to win?
She switched from Con to Lab over the Dementia Tax..
In which case she clearly doesn't understand it and neither do you. I would suggest her bellwether status is about to end in a quite dramatic manner.
If people do not understand it, whose fault is that?
I think people understand the Dementia Tax all too well. That was its massive flaw - assuming that people would put the good of the country ahead of the good of their entire family.
Money is tight and getting tighter. People will not sit idly by and watch the govt confiscate their inheritance.
Most people don't how the care of the elderly is paid for.
Once it is explained that ordinary tax payers are being asked to pay for the upkeep of wealthy older people so that those people can save their own money to pass on a greater unearned and undeserved inheritance to their children then attitudes will change.
But is not just wealthy people who are being hit. Anyone who owns property no matter how modest will be hit. Try seeing what £100K will buy you in property terms and it is soon apparent that anyone living in more than a bedsit will be hit.
The irony is that the truly wealthy can afford to pay for care and would not involve the NHS/govt care system anyway so this will not hit the truly wealthy.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?
One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.
But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.
The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.
Well when you've got some bloke at the end of the road flogging £10 notes at £5 a time it's not surprising he's attracting some interest.
Well it worked at the referendum, and for Trump, so where not at the GE?
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The 1992 Conservative campaign led by Chris Patten was successful.
It was but while the campaign was going on most "commentators" thought John Major on his soap box was silly and the campaign was poor - Labour thought they had it in the bag, hence Kinnocks disaster in Sheffield.
The Tax bombshell campaign was very effective. The sun also had lots of influence in those days less so now .Kinnock in a light bulb.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Just because the polls are showing something doesn't mean that's what's gouing to happen on polling day.
In 1987 Kinnock was generally thought to have had a good campaign and Mrs Thatcher a very poor campaign. There were several polls through the 1987 campaign that had the Tories at just 5-7% leads though they ended up winning by around 12%....
In 1992 there was general media derision of John Major getting on his "soap box" in market and shire towns.
And we all know what everyone said about the 2010 and 2015 Con campaigns while they were taking place.
It might change but the polls the tories have broadly stayed at a fairly high level - did anyone really expect them to stay at 49% even if that level was true? Labour have shown an increase and the LDs have collapsed. Corbyn and Labour are making wild and generous promises based on the expectation of never having to face up to them. No doubt the young like the free tuition fee promise so perhaps that explains some of it although at first blush this seems a bonus for the wealthy few at the expense of the taxable many.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?
One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.
But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.
The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.
Well when you've got some bloke at the end of the road flogging £10 notes at £5 a time it's not surprising he's attracting some interest.
Yup, it explains why many politicians feel they have to tell people what they want to hear to win votes.
If the worst comes to the worst, and Jezza by some fluke is handed the reins of the economy, and we become Venezuela, he has a ready-made excuse ... it was Brexit, nothing to do with us!
I've got a suspicion there will be an enormous number of marginals for next time. And a larger number of super safes. Not so much the 3-10k majorities.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?
One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.
But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.
The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.
Well when you've got some bloke at the end of the road flogging £10 notes at £5 a time it's not surprising he's attracting some interest.
It's just a promise. Sane tax payers realise that if it becomes a reality then they they will be their tenners
This Alex Cruz has turned flying with BA from mildly pleasurable to absolutely horrendous. He came from Vueling which has to be the worst airline I have ever flown with. He must go he"a a disaster!
Yep - Vueling is a shocker. I flew Ryanair to Barcelona last week. You know what you are paying for and you get it. That is a lot better than being sold a what is supposed to be a premium product and being given something third rate. Even in business class - which I fly now and again with BA - you can see the decline. But it's still not as bad as the US carriers. They are utterly awful in every way imaginable.
Agreed. I've been flying BA club class for about 6 years, when I started they were really ahead of the game, the business bed was a revolutionary idea and they had begun to put AC sockets in business seats which was extremely handy, no other airline had these options, not even the heavily subsidised Arab ones. BA were pioneering and full of ideas. Nothing has changed since then, if anything it's gone backwards. No food/drink on economy short haul (which is a real irritation given how often I fly to and from London), the business bed has been adopted by all but the American carriers, AC sockets are standard on economy on the Arab carriers, the food in club class is appreciably worse this year than last year, the wine choices are more limited.
BA are in serial decline, they need to invest massively in updating their fleet and the cabins. The staff are the only thing that keeps this airline running and keeps me coming back. Always 100% first rate service, but everything else is falling to pieces.
Yep - BA staff are a cut above. But they are treated like crap by management, too. The club class service has definitely declined. People notice these things. What BA does have going for it - for now, at least - is a relatively generous Points package. I reckon it's that which keeps a lot of the premium customers coming back.
I had an awful Easyjet flight back from Portugal. Didn't get home until nearly 3am after being delayed by well over 2 hours and treated like cattle the whole time.
To be honest, such is the woeful customer service, and awful facilities and amenities, that it's just put me off flying altogether. And it isn't even that cheap anymore to compensate.
My wife and I will be taking the ferry to Jersey for our late Summer break.
On topic: Labour are doing a surprisingly good job of selling full-on socialism to a significant chunk of the electorate. The promised jam tsunami paid for by someone else is clearly appealing to many. According to the Telegraph the surge is mostly female. Dumb heifers. It's sad to see how little some people seem able to learn from the examples of history. And...that nice Mrs May has made a bit of a clusterfuck of her campaign. She listened to Grimer Wormtongue instead of her colleagues. All the manifesto needed to be was a 'steady as she goes' Brexity affair. Instead she let some know-nothing REMF masturbate all over it. Not clever.
Yet another hypocrite who demands that the voters will be respected when they agree with you (Brexit) but labels them as stupid as soon as they don't
There is a right and a wrong to pretty much every political issue. Brexit is right. We can't be in a superstate. Socialism is wrong. Look what happens to any country that tries it. See? Not hard.
The UK is much more of a superstate than the EU so it's always been an odd criticism for anyone to make who doesn't favour breaking it up.
We are a single demos (albeit somewhat under strain in Scotland) and a real democracy. You can kick the buggers out here. Therefore a unitary state. A united kingdom. It's been stable for centuries. None of these are true in the EU. Which will not last beyond our lifetimes.
If you live in Foyle for example, how exactly can you 'kick the buggers out' or register an opinion about the UK government at all?
You think the UK has been stable for centuries yet you overlook the loss of most of one of its constituent countries and ongoing civil unrest. Your views are completely irrational and driven by an absurd mania about the EU.
The irony is that the truly wealthy can afford to pay for care and would not involve the NHS/govt care system anyway so this will not hit the truly wealthy.
Your comments on this matter are truly idiotic
At the moment, everyone who has assets over 23k will pay for their residential care.
It is not the “truly wealthy” who are paying for care. It is everyone with assets over 23k.
I don't understand why Theresa May is planning to talk about domestic violence now.
She should be talking relentlessly about the economy, security and Brexit - and only those - over the next 10 days.
Nothing else.
I disagree. She's already miles ahead on those issues so those that care most about them are already locked in. She needs to convince waverers who like her security stance but are more persuaded by social issues. Nobody concerned about Brexit and security is hovering over the Corbyn box.
But everyone agrees that domestic violence is bad. It won't win any votes. This is madness from May!
If she wants to campaign on something it should to be Brexit and what the priorities are or talk about how Corbyn's insane plan will ruin the economy and why they are not affordable, or why Corbyn wanted to review shoot to kill after the Bataclan attack. She needs to sew doubt into Labour supperter minds. "Don't risk it"! That sort of thing.
God she is crap. She'll be campaigning on Alcohol Addiction next, o.k , yes we get it no one likes these things but tell us why we should vote for you and not the other lot.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?
One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.
But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.
The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.
Maybe May should get back to talking about Brexit, which after all was the reason she gave for calling the election.
The Manifesto was a disaster and the attempt to depict Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser hasn't resonated. Perhaps if she were to re-emphasise the importance of a large majority in her forthcoming negotiations with the EU the voters would be more responsive.
I agree on the first point. I'm afraid I disagree with the Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser not resonating - I think that has been (and is continuing to be) very effective.
I think she needs to roll her whole team out on the airwaves, including the big guns past and present, and play to her strengths on leadership, security, the economy and Brexit.
Forget domestic violence, social care, benefits... everything else.
This Alex Cruz has turned flying with BA from mildly pleasurable to absolutely horrendous. He came from Vueling which has to be the worst airline I have ever flown with. He must go he"a a disaster!
Yep - Vueling is a shocker. I flew Ryanair to Barcelona last week. You know what you are paying for and you get it. That is a lot better than being sold a what is supposed to be a premium product and being given something third rate. Even in business class - which I fly now and again with BA - you can see the decline. But it's still not as bad as the US carriers. They are utterly awful in every way imaginable.
Agreed. I've been flying BA club class for about 6 years, when I started they were really ahead of the game, the business bed was a revolutionary idea and they had begun to put AC sockets in business seats which was extremely handy, no other airline had these options, not even the heavily subsidised Arab ones. BA were pioneering and full of ideas. Nothing has changed since then, if anything it's gone backwards. No food/drink on economy short haul (which is a real irritation given how often I fly to and from London), the business bed has been adopted by all but the American carriers, AC sockets are standard on economy on the Arab carriers, the food in club class is appreciably worse this year than last year, the wine choices are more limited.
BA are in serial decline, they need to invest massively in updating their fleet and the cabins. The staff are the only thing that keeps this airline running and keeps me coming back. Always 100% first rate service, but everything else is falling to pieces.
Yep - BA staff are a cut above. But they are treated like crap by management, too. The club class service has definitely declined. People notice these things. What BA does have going for it - for now, at least - is a relatively generous Points package. I reckon it's that which keeps a lot of the premium customers coming back.
I had an awful Easyjet flight back from Portugal. Didn't get home until nearly 3am after being delayed by well over 2 hours and treated like cattle the whole time.
To be honest, such is the woeful customer service, and awful facilities and amenities, that it's just put me off flying altogether. And it isn't even that cheap anymore to compensate.
My wife and I will be taking the ferry to Jersey for our late Summer break.
We're getting the ferry to Spain in the summer and then driving up to our rental in France. Cheaper and more pleasant than flying and then hiring a car.
Over the campaign May has shown she is not a team player. Prsumably on the advice of Lynton Crosby she has cut out the Foreign Secretary and the Chancellor from the campaign.
Now her own position is being exposed as weak and wobbly she needs to show she is head of a stong and stable team.
But is it too late to change course and bring the rest of the team onto the pitch?
Hammond is such a dull person I don't think anybody would notice if he entered the fray anyway.
Boris probably should be deployed though...
Have the tories not lost enough ground already?
People criticize Boris but the fact is he can reach parts of the electorate other politicians can't reach.
After his behaviour in the immediate post-Brexit period, I am not convinced that he has a spine, nor am I convinced that he is politically astute in any way at all. As far as I can see he does have the bumbling-affable-buffoon shtick completely sorted out. As a clown, he is excellent.
Yes, the centre has collapsed, hasn't it. It's a polarised and polarising election.
Must be the fashion.
By far the most perplexing thing about this election to me is the failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Remain support. I honestly thought they would get a decent boost, and maybe even give Labour a run for vote share if not seats. Instead the Lib Dems appear to have gone backwards. But my hunch is the Lib Dems might do a bit better on the day than the polls suggest, as I can see a few waverers thinking "I'll tick the harmless box".
The closer Labour get to Conservative the fewer people will vote Lib Dem.
People will be scared of a Labour SNP coalition. So must vote to maximise Conservative MPs and keep out SNP.
I don't understand why Theresa May is planning to talk about domestic violence now.
She should be talking relentlessly about the economy, security and Brexit - and only those - over the next 10 days.
Nothing else.
I disagree. She's already miles ahead on those issues so those that care most about them are already locked in. She needs to convince waverers who like her security stance but are more persuaded by social issues. Nobody concerned about Brexit and security is hovering over the Corbyn box.
I'm with CR. It's about aligning the priorities of the voter with those where you are strongest.
I don't understand why Theresa May is planning to talk about domestic violence now.
She should be talking relentlessly about the economy, security and Brexit - and only those - over the next 10 days.
Nothing else.
I disagree. She's already miles ahead on those issues so those that care most about them are already locked in. She needs to convince waverers who like her security stance but are more persuaded by social issues. Nobody concerned about Brexit and security is hovering over the Corbyn box.
But everyone agrees that domestic violence is bad. It won't win any votes. This is madness from May!
If she wants to campaign on something it should to be Brexit and what the priorities are or talk about how Corbyn's insane plan will ruin the economy and why they are not affordable, or why Corbyn wanted to review shoot to kill after the Bataclan attack. She needs to sew doubt into Labour supperter minds. "Don't risk it"! That sort of thing.
God she is crap. She'll be campaigning on Alcohol Addiction next, o.k , yes we get it no one likes these things but tell us why we should vote for you and not the other lot.
Shes polling mid 40s and night on 50 as best PM. If that's crap, the Tories will take it. It's labour surging not the Tories collapsing. Like the fantasy of Cleggasm will Labour's surge materialise?
On topic: Labour are doing a surprisingly good job of selling full-on socialism to a significant chunk of the electorate. The promised jam tsunami paid for by someone else is clearly appealing to many. According to the Telegraph the surge is mostly female. Dumb heifers. It's sad to see how little some people seem able to learn from the examples of history. And...that nice Mrs May has made a bit of a clusterfuck of her campaign. She listened to Grimer Wormtongue instead of her colleagues. All the manifesto needed to be was a 'steady as she goes' Brexity affair. Instead she let some know-nothing REMF masturbate all over it. Not clever.
Yet another hypocrite who demands that the voters will be respected when they agree with you (Brexit) but labels them as stupid as soon as they don't
There is a right and a wrong to pretty much every political issue. Brexit is right. We can't be in a superstate. Socialism is wrong. Look what happens to any country that tries it. See? Not hard.
The UK is much more of a superstate than the EU so it's always been an odd criticism for anyone to make who doesn't favour breaking it up.
We are a single demos (albeit somewhat under strain in Scotland) and a real democracy. You can kick the buggers out here. Therefore a unitary state. A united kingdom. It's been stable for centuries. None of these are true in the EU. Which will not last beyond our lifetimes.
If you live in Foyle for example, how exactly can you 'kick the buggers out' or register an opinion about the UK government at all?
You think the UK has been stable for centuries yet you overlook the loss of most of one of its constituent countries and ongoing civil unrest. Your views are completely irrational and driven by an absurd mania about the EU.
The UK is certainly a lot more stable than the EU or most of its constituent countries. And you ignore the fact that as was mentioned there is a single demos. It would be frankly moronic to claim the same about the EU in any form at all.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?
One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.
But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.
The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.
Well when you've got some bloke at the end of the road flogging £10 notes at £5 a time it's not surprising he's attracting some interest.
Well it worked at the referendum, and for Trump, so where not at the GE?
Yep - it puzzles me some of right wing Brexit posters on here cannot see the link. The left-behind, sneered at, white working class they were saying the Brexit vote was all about (and it was) were heroes back then. Now they are derided. All for being completely consistent.
I had an awful Easyjet flight back from Portugal. Didn't get home until nearly 3am after being delayed by well over 2 hours and treated like cattle the whole time.
To be honest, such is the woeful customer service, and awful facilities and amenities, that it's just put me off flying altogether. And it isn't even that cheap anymore to compensate.
My wife and I will be taking the ferry to Jersey for our late Summer break.
Easyjet have always had that problem, plus they get the worst slots. Arriving into Gatwick at 11pm is a nightmare, especially if there is even a slight delay. I don't get why anyone bothers with it when BA is similarly priced, goes from Heathrow or City and you get the best take off and landing slot times.
Which has probably been said about every Conservative campaign from 1987 onwards.
The lead is down from 20% plus to single figures, despite pitiful opposition. I can't think offhand of a similar performance, from 1987 onwards.
Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?
One might be partially a function of the other: in other words, it's precisely those mammoth Tory leads that has led to a rallying around Labour to mitigate it.
But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.
The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.
Well when you've got some bloke at the end of the road flogging £10 notes at £5 a time it's not surprising he's attracting some interest.
Well quite. Hammond would be a good person to use now, strong and stable needs to make a comeback against someone promising free owls to everyone.
I'm exactly the sort of voter you had in mind. I normally vote Labour but my local MP is a Labour Brexiteer, so I voted LD this time. Seems that very few are doing likewise though.
A few months ago the theory was the young would vote for the Lib Dems to reverse Brexit, but it seems the young are more interested in money (like most people) and like Corbyn's abolition of student fees more than they like the EU.
Mr. Roger, I can appreciate that. The noise would probably annoy me a lot if I actually went to a race.
Mr. rkrkrk, hard to assess that note in electoral terms but it certainly didn't help Labour.
I think the EdStone solidified Miliband's position as a silly sausage in the eyes of the electorate.
Having attended a couple of GPs in the 80s, I can only assume that old time F1 fans dislike the new engines because they are too deaf to hear them. At my first trip to Silverstone I didn't have earplugs, and spent the entire race with fingers in ears.
Were you annoyed with Ferrari giving Vettel the rub of the green and spoiling your might have been great Raikkonen punt... it was each way, though ? (I was away visiting family, so escaped any losses.)
My great mistake for the American election was assuming that Hillary was campaigning in rational locations.
She was in California & New York for a good deal of it wasn't she ?
That was fund raising, Trump also spent a lot of time there and Texas.
It was things like the Arizona trips or the completely fucking lack of Midwestern rust belt stops that lead me totally astray.
However, in 2015 the Tories were campaigning in Colchester, a seat I thought rock-solid. It was a Con Gain.
Granted, but we knew the LDs were taking a hammering from the polls, it was just expected in the seats they held they would do better, but they were clearly still worth going for. If the polls are right, and it is a big if, then Labour are surging, not collapsing, so expecting rock solid seats to switch makes less sense to focus on.
But the surge, if real, is largely coming from 18-24. Unless those safe seats have a large proportion of 18-24 then they are vulnerable to a swing to the Conservatives. Bolsover doesn't have a particularly young demographic IIRC.
If the surge is comeing from 18 to 24 year olds, then surely Clegg and Mulholland are toast.
Have backed Labour in Leeds NW. If the youth are heading to the polls, he's gone.
Old Ma Dura_Ace is a one woman focus group and political bellwether - she has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1955. Her comment on May today was, "She's gone Maggie Arrogant without actually achieving anything.
So who has she said is going to win?
She switched from Con to Lab over the Dementia Tax..
In which case she clearly doesn't understand it and neither do you. I would suggest her bellwether status is about to end in a quite dramatic manner.
If people do not understand it, whose fault is that?
Perhaps those who misrepresent it as a 'dementia tax' which it certainly is not.
On topic: Labour are doing a surprisingly good job of selling full-on socialism to a significant chunk of the electorate. The promised jam tsunami paid for by someone else is clearly appealing to many. According to the Telegraph the surge is mostly female. Dumb heifers. It's sad to see how little some people seem able to learn from the examples of history. And...that nice Mrs May has made a bit of a clusterfuck of her campaign. She listened to Grimer Wormtongue instead of her colleagues. All the manifesto needed to be was a 'steady as she goes' Brexity affair. Instead she let some know-nothing REMF masturbate all over it. Not clever.
Yet another hypocrite who demands that the voters will be respected when they agree with you (Brexit) but labels them as stupid as soon as they don't
There is a right and a wrong to pretty much every political issue. Brexit is right. We can't be in a superstate. Socialism is wrong. Look what happens to any country that tries it. See? Not hard.
The UK is much more of a superstate than the EU so it's always been an odd criticism for anyone to make who doesn't favour breaking it up.
We are a single demos (albeit somewhat under strain in Scotland) and a real democracy. You can kick the buggers out here. Therefore a unitary state. A united kingdom. It's been stable for centuries. None of these are true in the EU. Which will not last beyond our lifetimes.
With a name like Patrick I'm surprised you don't know that the present United Kingdom has existed for only 95 years.
I don't understand why Theresa May is planning to talk about domestic violence now.
She should be talking relentlessly about the economy, security and Brexit - and only those - over the next 10 days.
Nothing else.
I disagree. She's already miles ahead on those issues so those that care most about them are already locked in. She needs to convince waverers who like her security stance but are more persuaded by social issues. Nobody concerned about Brexit and security is hovering over the Corbyn box.
I'm with CR. It's about aligning the priorities of the voter with those where you are strongest.
Yes. If you're pissed off about social care and thinking of abstaining to give May a message, or even voting Corbyn out of spite, it can do well to remind the voter of the consequences to them of that.
You have to bring the debate back onto your ground.
Yes, the centre has collapsed, hasn't it. It's a polarised and polarising election.
Must be the fashion.
By far the most perplexing thing about this election to me is the failure of the Lib Dems to capitalise on Remain support. I honestly thought they would get a decent boost, and maybe even give Labour a run for vote share if not seats. Instead the Lib Dems appear to have gone backwards. But my hunch is the Lib Dems might do a bit better on the day than the polls suggest, as I can see a few waverers thinking "I'll tick the harmless box".
I'm exactly the sort of voter you had in mind. I normally vote Labour but my local MP is a Labour Brexiteer, so I voted LD this time. Seems that very few are doing likewise though.
Maybe the FPTP system renders such protest votes so ineffectual that people are not inclined to use them that way.
Or that most people who were on the losing side have moved on and are looking to the future, not the past.
Comments
Andrea Leadsome was campaigning in Kendal last week, apparently. Went down well - not sure the electors knew who she was.
Age 83
Didn't John Major do rather well, against vastly superior opposition to that faced by today's Conservatives?
The pre-election baseline was 15-16pts and we're now at what, 10?
This poll (assuming it's been reported accurately but prematurely) is in line with Saturday's: the Tory share has stabilised at around 44%. That's enough for a comfortable majority.
BA are in serial decline, they need to invest massively in updating their fleet and the cabins. The staff are the only thing that keeps this airline running and keeps me coming back. Always 100% first rate service, but everything else is falling to pieces.
In 1987 Kinnock was generally thought to have had a good campaign and Mrs Thatcher a very poor campaign. There were several polls through the 1987 campaign that had the Tories at just 5-7% leads though they ended up winning by around 12%....
In 1992 there was general media derision of John Major getting on his "soap box" in market and shire towns.
And we all know what everyone said about the 2010 and 2015 Con campaigns while they were taking place.
She should be talking relentlessly about the economy, security and Brexit - and only those - over the next 10 days.
Nothing else.
that sort of says bar some wobbling she has a firm base
the issue has been the Corbyn rise, how much of this will turn up on the day remains to be seen
that said the Tories could have saved themselves a lot of trouble by having some sensible policies to appeal to across the age spectrum. Their campaign management has been rubbish
Money is tight and getting tighter. People will not sit idly by and watch the govt confiscate their inheritance.
But, that said, the Tory campaign has still been poor. The Labour campaign hasn't been brilliant either, but they did get 3-4 days full media coverage (largely unchallenged by the Tories) to trail their very left-wing manifesto.
The Tory hope probably was that people would be terrified by it whereas, actually, many seemed to quite like it.
Must be the fashion.
Don't really need them with these new quiet F1 cars though, the GP2 cars are the noisy ones these days.
The old F1 cars you used to feel through the ground, with a visceral scream of the wonderful V10 engines at 18,000rpm completely blowing your senses.
Many of these have broken up for the summer - which is very different to usual May elections (how long since we've had a GE not in May?).
Stoke Central, for example, is not going to be decided by youth turnout. Nor is Don Valley, Copeland etc etc etc
Now her own position is being exposed as weak and wobbly she needs to show she is head of a stong and stable team.
But is it too late to change course and bring the rest of the team onto the pitch?
ANYONE who cares about Brexit, security and the economy is already voting Tory. Trust me - they're telling me on the doorstep very loudly...
For most of the 1992 campaign Labour had the lead and the Conservative campaign were criticized.
And were Kinnock's Labour that superior ? Kinnock was mocked as an ineffectual windbag, there was the Sheffield rally madness and they had to keep Shadow Foreign Secretary Gerald Kaufman hidden away from the public.
Boris probably should be deployed though...
It's possible that's all wrong and there has been a landslide switch in public opinion over the last 10-11 days that will cripple May's next Government.
Personally, I doubt it, except a lot of the sheen has come off Theresa and there has been a strong rally of the Left-wing base to Labour.
Once it is explained that ordinary tax payers are being asked to pay for the upkeep of wealthy older people so that those people can save their own money to pass on a greater unearned and undeserved inheritance to their children then attitudes will change.
The Manifesto was a disaster and the attempt to depict Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser hasn't resonated. Perhaps if she were to re-emphasise the importance of a large majority in her forthcoming negotiations with the EU the voters would be more responsive.
On the flip side, he doesn't have the right demographics on his side.
Maybe the FPTP system renders such protest votes so ineffectual that people are not inclined to use them that way.
The irony is that the truly wealthy can afford to pay for care and would not involve the NHS/govt care system anyway so this will not hit the truly wealthy.
https://order-order.com/2017/05/29/corbyn-attended-terror-conference-honouring-munich-killer/
Already priced in? We'll see.
To be honest, such is the woeful customer service, and awful facilities and amenities, that it's just put me off flying altogether. And it isn't even that cheap anymore to compensate.
My wife and I will be taking the ferry to Jersey for our late Summer break.
You think the UK has been stable for centuries yet you overlook the loss of most of one of its constituent countries and ongoing civil unrest. Your views are completely irrational and driven by an absurd mania about the EU.
At the moment, everyone who has assets over 23k will pay for their residential care.
It is not the “truly wealthy” who are paying for care. It is everyone with assets over 23k.
If she wants to campaign on something it should to be Brexit and what the priorities are or talk about how Corbyn's insane plan will ruin the economy and why they are not affordable, or why Corbyn wanted to review shoot to kill after the Bataclan attack. She needs to sew doubt into Labour supperter minds. "Don't risk it"! That sort of thing.
God she is crap. She'll be campaigning on Alcohol Addiction next, o.k , yes we get it no one likes these things but tell us why we should vote for you and not the other lot.
I think she needs to roll her whole team out on the airwaves, including the big guns past and present, and play to her strengths on leadership, security, the economy and Brexit.
Forget domestic violence, social care, benefits... everything else.
Ditch it.
People will be scared of a Labour SNP coalition. So must vote to maximise Conservative MPs and keep out SNP.
It's a battle of turnout as much as voting intention.
https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/869140892602388482
It's labour surging not the Tories collapsing. Like the fantasy of Cleggasm will Labour's surge materialise?
Were you annoyed with Ferrari giving Vettel the rub of the green and spoiling your might have been great Raikkonen punt... it was each way, though ?
(I was away visiting family, so escaped any losses.)
You can see more maturity, thought and professionalism at a village club.
You have to bring the debate back onto your ground.