EU position papers on money and people have been published.
They want the scope of acquired rights to apply to anyone who has resided (plus family members) or worked in the UK or EU27 respectively at any time prior to withdrawal.
At first glance, that's a recipe for Crash Brexit. They've gone for the maximum financial demand (e.g. they really do want us to pay for the agencies to move, and for their new buildings, etc), and permanent ECJ supremacy over UK law, for EU citizens in the UK, until death.
No way TMay can agree to this. We're crashing out.
Buckle up.
That is where they start negotiations after 2 years both sides may be prepared to compromise a bit on payments to the EU and a job offer requirement while guaranteeing rights for EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU but clearly we are leaving the single market and no FTA is likely in 2 years either, at most it will be bilateral agreements
However, in 2015 the Tories were campaigning in Colchester, a seat I thought rock-solid. It was a Con Gain.
Granted, but we knew the LDs were taking a hammering from the polls, it was just expected in the seats they held they would do better, but they were clearly still worth going for. If the polls are right, and it is a big if, then Labour are surging, not collapsing, so expecting rock solid seats to switch makes less sense to focus on.
But the surge, if real, is largely coming from 18-24. Unless those safe seats have a large proportion of 18-24 then they are vulnerable to a swing to the Conservatives. Bolsover doesn't have a particularly young demographic IIRC.
If the surge is comeing from 18 to 24 year olds, then surely Clegg and Mulholland are toast.
Have backed Labour in Leeds NW. If the youth are heading to the polls, he's gone.
The turnout in the four Leeds NW wards in 2015 was:
I think that Labour would need to squeeze the Green vote more as well as increase turnout in the student parts of Headingly and Weetwood.
But what should also worry Mulholland is that he's unlikely to get the 3000 Conservative tactical votes which he did in 2015.
While if Otley returns to its traditional voting patterns, ie not dissimilar to the other commuter towns north of Leeds and Bradford, they'll be a big boost for the Conservatives.
Its clear though that Clegg's betrayal on tuition fees has really damaged the LibDems.
The more I think of it the more I think Mulholland's in deep trouble.
Lab 9/2 Bet365 Con 12/1 Betfair
are both good value IMO.
I have £25 on Labour and a fiver on the Tories both at 10-1. A Labour surge in the more urban parts combined with a few more Tories in the leafier parts should see Labour over the line I think.
The seat hasn't voted Tory since 1992 (under different boundaries I believe) and I doubt it will now. It is Labour vs. LDs and I think Headingley will advance the Labour cause while the other three edge away from the LDs.
Doubtless this would be welcomed by Brexiteers who have long said pound is due a devaluation and that this will help our exports?
Sterling’s Brexit-fuelled decline over the past year has been Britain’s “least successful” currency devaluation in history, an analysis of the latest growth figures has revealed.
The UK’s trade balance has worsened by 1.8% of GDP since the final quarter of 2015 — before worries over the EU referendum began to hurt the pound. Rising exports have been outstripped by an even faster rise in imports, according to Samuel Tombs of consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The figures show that booming exports have so far failed to provide a silver lining to the pound’s slump, which has also driven up inflation and squeezed household spending.
Mind you, "In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists’ prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK." An expert, obv.
There is no Kevin Pringle in the Palace of Sturgeon. The First Minister reigns over a lonely court, attended only by consort Peter Murrell, her husband and SNP chief executive, and deputy first minister John Swinney, an ex party leader and veteran Nationalist. Mr Swinney knows where the bodies are buried and he has the shovel to prove it. But there is no one with the courage to tell her she’s lost touch or the nous to help her get it back.
The smell of desperation thickens the air. Yesterday, a Sunday newspaper which functions as the Murrell Family Round Robin splashed across its front page Miss Sturgeon’s dire warning: ‘Just ten days to save Scotland from the Tories’. Save us from what? Are they going to make Jackson Carlaw Sings the Best of Gilbert and Sullivan a mandatory unit in the Curriculum for Excellence? Or send Murdo Fraser round to rearrange everyone’s flower bed into the pattern of a Union Jack?
The SNP has nothing left and so it is falling back on that old classic, The Tories Are Coming To Get You. We will find out on June 8 how much that dread tale still scares Scotland. Going around talking to voters, this does not feel like a frightened country. In the pubs and front rooms and work canteens of Scotland, fear is not the foremost emotion; in truth, it’s not even anger. It’s exasperation. Scots are fed up with a government that has the power to do almost anything but the will to do almost nothing. If it’s not independence, the First Minister doesn’t care and the voters are starting to catch on. The whole country is now Govanhill, a place Nicola Sturgeon vaguely knows, seldom visits, and no longer understands.
But the surge, if real, is largely coming from 18-24. Unless those safe seats have a large proportion of 18-24 then they are vulnerable to a swing to the Conservatives. Bolsover doesn't have a particularly young demographic IIRC.
If the surge is comeing from 18 to 24 year olds, then surely Clegg and Mulholland are toast.
Have backed Labour in Leeds NW. If the youth are heading to the polls, he's gone.
The turnout in the four Leeds NW wards in 2015 was:
I think that Labour would need to squeeze the Green vote more as well as increase turnout in the student parts of Headingly and Weetwood.
But what should also worry Mulholland is that he's unlikely to get the 3000 Conservative tactical votes which he did in 2015.
While if Otley returns to its traditional voting patterns, ie not dissimilar to the other commuter towns north of Leeds and Bradford, they'll be a big boost for the Conservatives.
Its clear though that Clegg's betrayal on tuition fees has really damaged the LibDems.
The seat hasn't voted Tory since 1992 (under different boundaries I believe) and I doubt it will now. It is Labour vs. LDs and I think Headingley will advance the Labour cause while the other three edge away from the LDs.
I normally go ferry nowadays , Newcastle - Amsterdam. You can fill the car up with as much luggage as you want and far less hassle, nice night on the ferry, good foood, drink etc and waken up fresh next day.
If we agreed to it, EU citizens in the UK would have - as far as I can tell - considerably greater rights (re spousal reunion etc etc etc) than UK citizens.
Well done Sean, you have FINALLY figured out that voting for Brexit means UK citizens have voted away rights they currently enjoy as EU citizens.
people are not some kind of idiots to be whipped up by your hysterical "rabid xenophobia"
Earlier this week, an SNP activist in Cowie, Stirling filmed herself following Tory campaigners as they delivered leaflets to voters. The Nationalist stalked them from her car, blasting music, and shouting ‘get out of Scotland’ and warned she would be ‘coming after’ them if they returned to the village. Another SNP leading light attacked Christine Jardine, the Lib Dem candidate in Edinburgh West, in a cruel and callous Twitter rant. This troll, a Nationalist council candidate just last month, accused Jardine of campaigning during the post-Manchester election truce. In fact, she was burying her husband that day but her pleas for decency went unheeded by Nicola Sturgeon’s boot boy.
However, in 2015 the Tories were campaigning in Colchester, a seat I thought rock-solid. It was a Con Gain.
Granted, but we knew the LDs were taking a hammering from the polls, it was just expected in the seats they held they would do better, but they were clearly still worth going for. If the polls are right, and it is a big if, then Labour are surging, not collapsing, so expecting rock solid seats to switch makes less sense to focus on.
But the surge, if real, is largely coming from 18-24. Unless those safe seats have a large proportion of 18-24 then they are vulnerable to a swing to the Conservatives. Bolsover doesn't have a particularly young demographic IIRC.
If the surge is comeing from 18 to 24 year olds, then surely Clegg and Mulholland are toast.
Have backed Labour in Leeds NW. If the youth are heading to the polls, he's gone.
The turnout in the four Leeds NW wards in 2015 was:
I think that Labour would need to squeeze the Green vote more as well as increase turnout in the student parts of Headingly and Weetwood.
But what should also worry Mulholland is that he's unlikely to get the 3000 Conservative tactical votes which he did in 2015.
While if Otley returns to its traditional voting patterns, ie not dissimilar to the other commuter towns north of Leeds and Bradford, they'll be a big boost for the Conservatives.
Its clear though that Clegg's betrayal on tuition fees has really damaged the LibDems.
The more I think of it the more I think Mulholland's in deep trouble.
Lab 9/2 Bet365 Con 12/1 Betfair
are both good value IMO.
I have £25 on Labour and a fiver on the Tories both at 10-1. A Labour surge in the more urban parts combined with a few more Tories in the leafier parts should see Labour over the line I think.
I think Labour will struggle to match its national total in Leeds NW - the northern half of the constituency really isn't good Corbyn territory IMO.
The trouble with Daisley world view is that some viewers will have watched Ms Sturgeon effortlessly see off Andrew Neil last evening and compared it with the, at best, faltering efforts of May and Corbyn.
The other problem is with Daisley, the ultimate "nae pals", writing a piece with the word "lonely" in it!
In a forced choice it looks like they would opt for Corbyn, along with Headingley. Adel (and Wharfedale) and Weetwood would go for May. But it is not a forced choice, as Mulholland is still on the ballot paper. Admittedly not an accurate yardstick, but the number of Labour posters and signs in the town far exceeds previous elections. There are NO Tory signs anywhere.
From parish council results you now shift to poster counting.
Double LOL
And few people who have been to Otley will think that it would chose Corbyn over May.
I know neither are accurate reflections. But I think you are making the argument far too simplistic - it is not a forced choice. It may not matter whether they would opt for Corbyn or May, they have an alternative that they have already returned three times already in Mulholland.
I think he will lose it to Sobel, but I don't see it being a large swing.
Seriously. Everyone should read those documents linked by williamglenn
If we agreed to it, EU citizens in the UK would have - as far as I can tell - considerably greater rights (re spousal reunion etc etc etc) than UK citizens.
It would create two tiers of UK citizenship. Brits would be 2nd class. And these rights would be enforced by the ECJ in the UK.
I can't see the EU budging from this, and I can't see any Tory PM agreeing = Crash Brexit.
Don't worry, German car manufacturers will force Merkel to give us a good deal.
@another_richard Personally I think Labour (Leeds NW) have a better chance than the Tories, but seeing as you and I disagree the idea of any sort of tactical vote goes out the window.
Sheffield Hallam is the one constituency where I am very sure a Tory vote helps Labour.
But the surge, if real, is largely coming from 18-24. Unless those safe seats have a large proportion of 18-24 then they are vulnerable to a swing to the Conservatives. Bolsover doesn't have a particularly young demographic IIRC.
If the surge is comeing from 18 to 24 year olds, then surely Clegg and Mulholland are toast.
Have backed Labour in Leeds NW. If the youth are heading to the polls, he's gone.
The turnout in the four Leeds NW wards in 2015 was:
I think that Labour would need to squeeze the Green vote more as well as increase turnout in the student parts of Headingly and Weetwood.
But what should also worry Mulholland is that he's unlikely to get the 3000 Conservative tactical votes which he did in 2015.
While if Otley returns to its traditional voting patterns, ie not dissimilar to the other commuter towns north of Leeds and Bradford, they'll be a big boost for the Conservatives.
Its clear though that Clegg's betrayal on tuition fees has really damaged the LibDems.
The more I think of it the more I think Mulholland's in deep trouble.
Lab 9/2 Bet365 Con 12/1 Betfair
are both good value IMO.
I have £25 on Labour and a fiver on the Tories both at 10-1. A Labour surge in the more urban parts combined with a few more Tories in the leafier parts should see Labour over the line I think.
The seat hasn't voted Tory since 1992 (under different boundaries I believe) and I doubt it will now. It is Labour vs. LDs and I think Headingley will advance the Labour cause while the other three edge away from the LDs.
The boundaries are little changed since 1992 - slightly better for the Conservatives if anything.
It seems that you're relying on a LibDem being immune from the national polling - we saw in 2015 that that rarely happens.
Sturgeon's quandary is that whereas her administration can get its hands on a lot more dosh if they form a coalition with Labour, that would require giving up the idea of a referendum in the near future. Which would make sense, because Corbyn promises to keep Britain in the single market and customs union, therefore the ostensible need for another referendum so that Scotland can support anyone who isn't England, thereby demonstrating internationalism would be obviated.
BUT once she has stirred up rabid xenophobia in her supporters she can't wind it back down again with a snap of the fingers. So she can't say she'd form a coalition with Labour but not with the Tories. At least I will be very surprised if she says before the election that a Labour government and continued British membership of the SM would mean no need for a referendum. Of course she can easily say that after the election, wrapping it in "Look how much money and power we've won for our party Scotland".
Even to suggest she might go in coalition with Labour is helpful to Ruth - and she did that very nicely yesterday even if she said exactly the opposite.
Of course she could ONLY actually go in coalition with the Tories to support an otherwise NOM administration - which isn't going to happen in any case.
@another_richard Personally I think Labour (Leeds NW) have a better chance than the Tories, but seeing as you and I disagree the idea of any sort of tactical vote goes out the window.
Sheffield Hallam is the one constituency where I am very sure a Tory vote helps Labour.
I agree with you about Hallam.
I'd like to know what the Leeds Conservatives are thinking - they've go to be active somewhere, Elmet is safe, Leeds NE is harder than it looks and I doubt the local Tories ever bought into Leeds East being a target.
However, in 2015 the Tories were campaigning in Colchester, a seat I thought rock-solid. It was a Con Gain.
Granted, but we knew the LDs were taking a hammering from the polls, it was just expected in the seats they held they would do better, but they were clearly still worth going for. If the polls are right, and it is a big if, then Labour are surging, not collapsing, so expecting rock solid seats to switch makes less sense to focus on.
But the surge, if real, is largely coming from 18-24. Unless those safe seats have a large proportion of 18-24 then they are vulnerable to a swing to the Conservatives. Bolsover doesn't have a particularly young demographic IIRC.
If the surge is comeing from 18 to 24 year olds, then surely Clegg and Mulholland are toast.
Have backed Labour in Leeds NW. If the youth are heading to the polls, he's gone.
The turnout in the four Leeds NW wards in 2015 was:
I think that Labour would need to squeeze the Green vote more as well as increase turnout in the student parts of Headingly and Weetwood.
But what should also worry Mulholland is that he's unlikely to get the 3000 Conservative tactical votes which he did in 2015.
While if Otley returns to its traditional voting patterns, ie not dissimilar to the other commuter towns north of Leeds and Bradford, they'll be a big boost for the Conservatives.
Its clear though that Clegg's betrayal on tuition fees has really damaged the LibDems.
This Alex Cruz has turned flying with BA from mildly pleasurable to absolutely horrendous. He came from Vueling which has to be the worst airline I have ever flown with. He must go he"a a disaster!
Yep - Vueling is a shocker. I flew Ryanair to Barcelona last week. You know what you are paying for and you get it. That is a lot better than being sold a what is supposed to be a premium product and being given something third rate. Even in business class - which I fly now and again with BA - you can see the decline. But it's still not as bad as the US carriers. They are utterly awful in every way imaginable.
Agreed. I've been flying BA club class for about 6 years, when I started they were really ahead of the game, the business bed was a revolutionary idea and they had begun to put AC sockets in business seats which was extremely handy, no other airline had these options, not even the heavily subsidised Arab ones. BA were pioneering and full of ideas. Nothing has changed since then, if anything it's gone backwards. No food/drink on economy short haul (which is a real irritation given how often I fly to and from London), the business bed has been adopted by all but the American carriers, AC sockets are standard on economy on the Arab carriers, the food in club class is appreciably worse this year than last year, the wine choices are more limited.
BA are in serial decline, they need to invest massively in updating their fleet and the cabins. The staff are the only thing that keeps this airline running and keeps me coming back. Always 100% first rate service, but everything else is falling to pieces.
Yep - BA staff are a cut above. But they are treated like crap by management, too. The club class service has definitely declined. People notice these things. What BA does have going for it - for now, at least - is a relatively generous Points package. I reckon it's that which keeps a lot of the premium customers coming back.
It's things like the separate security with direct access to the lounge that makes a real difference - no queues or walking
Lol noone has any idea do they. That's an incredibly flat path from nom to 200+
Betting on both the 75-99 and 100-124 bands seems like the obvious thing to do, looking at these numbers.
A sane voice at last ! For you to be wrong polling has to be so screwed as to have no meaningful basis in fact. A long time ago I used to believe Bob Worcester when he said there was a proportionate link between polling and election results. That was obviously rubbish and I was a fool to be taken in. Then I thought there was a mathematical relationship - neither linear nor proportionate - but discoverable by analysis. That is the basis of opinion analysis.
I now believe only that the relationship exists but I doubt how discoverable it is. However I suspect CCHQ and Labour HQ have a stronger understanding of the relationship than they admit in public. Paddy Ashdown either showed the LDs don't or he is one hell of an actor.
The rest is bullshitting.
I think 125-149 is good value. My head says 136 but my guts say 15 less.
This Alex Cruz has turned flying with BA from mildly pleasurable to absolutely horrendous. He came from Vueling which has to be the worst airline I have ever flown with. He must go he"a a disaster!
Yep - Vueling is a shocker. I flew Ryanair to Barcelona last week. You know what you are paying for and you get it. That is a lot better than being sold a what is supposed to be a premium product and being given something third rate. Even in business class - which I fly now and again with BA - you can see the decline. But it's still not as bad as the US carriers. They are utterly awful in every way imaginable.
Agreed. I've been flying BA club class for about 6 years, when I started they were really ahead of the game, the business bed was a revolutionary idea and they had begun to put AC sockets in business seats which was extremely handy, no other airline had these options, not even the heavily subsidised Arab ones. BA were pioneering and full of ideas. Nothing has changed since then, if anything it's gone backwards. No food/drink on economy short haul (which is a real irritation given how often I fly to and from London), the business bed has been adopted by all but the American carriers, AC sockets are standard on economy on the Arab carriers, the food in club class is appreciably worse this year than last year, the wine choices are more limited.
BA are in serial decline, they need to invest massively in updating their fleet and the cabins. The staff are the only thing that keeps this airline running and keeps me coming back. Always 100% first rate service, but everything else is falling to pieces.
Yep - BA staff are a cut above. But they are treated like crap by management, too. The club class service has definitely declined. People notice these things. What BA does have going for it - for now, at least - is a relatively generous Points package. I reckon it's that which keeps a lot of the premium customers coming back.
It's things like the separate security with direct access to the lounge that makes a real difference - no queues or walking
At Heathrow only if you are travelling in first class or are a oneworld emerald...
Comments
Oh.
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/869170966521421824
Mind you, "In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists’ prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK." An expert, obv.
LibD 33%
Lab 28%
Con 23%
That was in a year where the national figures were:
Lab 31%
Con 30%
LibD 15%
Now if we extrapolate those Leeds NW local results to a national picture of 45:35:10 we would get:
Con 38%
Lab 32%
LibD 28%
The betting value is with the Conservatives and then Labour in Leeds NW.
You hum the first few bars, I'll pick it up...
https://twitter.com/milesbriggsmsp/status/869100210840109056
Slowest hand-clap in the history of PB...
The trouble with Daisley world view is that some viewers will have watched Ms Sturgeon effortlessly see off Andrew Neil last evening and compared it with the, at best, faltering efforts of May and Corbyn.
The other problem is with Daisley, the ultimate "nae pals", writing a piece with the word "lonely" in it!
I think he will lose it to Sobel, but I don't see it being a large swing.
Sheffield Hallam is the one constituency where I am very sure a Tory vote helps Labour.
It seems that you're relying on a LibDem being immune from the national polling - we saw in 2015 that that rarely happens.
Reality can be painful at times.
Like you.
Of course she could ONLY actually go in coalition with the Tories to support an otherwise NOM administration - which isn't going to happen in any case.
NEW THREAD
I'd like to know what the Leeds Conservatives are thinking - they've go to be active somewhere, Elmet is safe, Leeds NE is harder than it looks and I doubt the local Tories ever bought into Leeds East being a target.
I now believe only that the relationship exists but I doubt how discoverable it is. However I suspect CCHQ and Labour HQ have a stronger understanding of the relationship than they admit in public. Paddy Ashdown either showed the LDs don't or he is one hell of an actor.
The rest is bullshitting.
I think 125-149 is good value. My head says 136 but my guts say 15 less.
They don't like it up 'em.
At Heathrow only if you are travelling in first class or are a oneworld emerald...
Diane Abbot.